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Speaker 1: On this episode of Newtsworld. President Joe Biden met with

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Speaker 1: President Jijianpeng of the People's Republic of China in Valley,

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Speaker 1: Indonesia on November fourteenth. According to the White House quote,

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Speaker 1: the two leaders spoke candidly about their respective priorities and

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Speaker 1: intentions across a range of issues. President Biden said that

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Speaker 1: the US will continue to compete vigorously with China, including

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Speaker 1: by investing in sources of strength at home and aligning

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Speaker 1: efforts with allies and partners around the world. I wanted

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Speaker 1: to discuss what seemed to really happen behind closed doors

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Speaker 1: in this meeting. The meeting follows the twentieth National Congress

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Speaker 1: of the Chinese Communist Party from October sixteenth through twenty second,

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, much of which was not reported broadly

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Speaker 1: in the press. Here to provide guidance to the events

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Speaker 1: of this last several weeks, I'm really pleased to welcome

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Speaker 1: back my guest, doctor Weifenjong. He is a senior Research

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Speaker 1: fellow at the Mercadis Center at George Mason University. He

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Speaker 1: also runs the Policy Change Index project, which uses machine

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Speaker 1: learning to reach large volumes of propaganda text the project

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Speaker 1: has produced algorithms to predict China's major policy changes. Well,

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Speaker 1: thank you for joining us again on News World. Thank you,

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Speaker 1: miss us speak careful having me. You know. On November fourteenth,

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Speaker 1: President Biden met with Jijinping. From your perspective, what came

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Speaker 1: of the meeting for a while now, I think meetings

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Speaker 1: like this were not supposed to produce anything concrete anyway,

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Speaker 1: And I think that has a lot to do with

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Speaker 1: the fact that both Chinese leader and US leaders now

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Speaker 1: are pretty clear that the days when you know, a

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Speaker 1: romance engagement with China was in all good those states

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Speaker 1: were long gone. And so I think it's good that

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Speaker 1: President Biden met with Presidency. I think diplomacy is good,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think just meeting in the South would

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Speaker 1: the chief much anyway. I may be overly influenced by

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Speaker 1: the techniques of negotiating with North Korea and North Vietnam

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Speaker 1: and the behavior at times of the Soviets, but I

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Speaker 1: was very struck when President Biden initially met with Jijon

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Speaker 1: Ping in public that Biden walked all the way across

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Speaker 1: the stage and Jiji and Ping didn't move at all. Now,

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Speaker 1: I may have been wrong but I can tell you

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Speaker 1: from the North Korean and North vietnamse experiences that would

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Speaker 1: have been seen symbolically as a major victory. I think

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Speaker 1: you are right. I didn't notice that. But another aspect

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Speaker 1: I thought President Biden score some point was the position,

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Speaker 1: you know, in terms of left versus right between Presidency

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Speaker 1: and President Biden. The Chinese leaders they always love to

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Speaker 1: be the one on the right when you're looking at

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Speaker 1: the photo, so then their right hand extends naturally, and

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Speaker 1: then the one who's weaker will be on the left

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Speaker 1: in the photo when you look at the photo, and

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Speaker 1: then the right hand will be a little bit awkward

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Speaker 1: coming across. So this time I noticed that Presidency was

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Speaker 1: actually on the left. So I guess I would say,

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Speaker 1: maybe haven't have in terms of the optics of the

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Speaker 1: meeting of the photo ofs itself. Well, you may remember

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Speaker 1: that both in the long negotiations in Penman John and

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Speaker 1: the negotiations in Paris Pamon John with the North Koreans

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Speaker 1: and the Chinese, and then Paris with the North Vietnamese,

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Speaker 1: they had these huge arguments about the height of the

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Speaker 1: chairs and you know, trying to make sure that everybody

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Speaker 1: got to be the right height. All of us seemed

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Speaker 1: to be symbolically, very important psychologically, so I just didn't know.

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Speaker 1: So I'm curious, did your Policy Change Index pick up

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Speaker 1: anything from the Biden g meeting? It did not. In fact,

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Speaker 1: something quite strange. I think it makes a lot of

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Speaker 1: sense if you think back, is that the Policy Change

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Speaker 1: Index has not registered any significant changes for a little

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Speaker 1: bit over a year now, which means that if you

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Speaker 1: look at the People's Daily, which is China's version of Pravda,

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Speaker 1: the most prominent mouthpiece of the Communist Party for the

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Speaker 1: last year, the behavior in terms of what they emphasize

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Speaker 1: and what they do not emphasize, it's consistently well behaved,

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Speaker 1: which means that the leadership of the Chinese president is

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Speaker 1: pretty solid and it was not going to change course,

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Speaker 1: whether or not it's because of the Party Congress or

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Speaker 1: whether or not the meeting with the American president goes well.

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Speaker 1: It was not going to make any significant changes. As

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Speaker 1: I understand it, and the way you're index works, you

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Speaker 1: are able to actually scan huge volumes of material and

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Speaker 1: then have various systems develop algorithms about what kind of

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Speaker 1: marginal changes through are over time. I mean, is that

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Speaker 1: a reasonable summary. Yes, absolutely so. If you think of,

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Speaker 1: for example, zero COVID policy in China, which is hugely disrupted.

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Speaker 1: But if you ask the question, it is China going

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Speaker 1: to change anytime soon in a significant way? Now? That

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Speaker 1: requires before the government changes that, to educate or at

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Speaker 1: least to justify to the public. Why are we changing

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Speaker 1: it now? Right? We were so strict about zero COVID,

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Speaker 1: Why all of a sudden we need to change course.

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Speaker 1: And we have not seen any of that kind of

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Speaker 1: change in talking point, So that indicates that actual changing

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Speaker 1: action is not coming anytime soon. You make an interesting

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Speaker 1: point again, because my background was originally with the Soviets,

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Speaker 1: it seems to me that the modern Chinese Communist Party

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Speaker 1: is much more sensitive to the need to communicate and

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Speaker 1: mold public opinion then the Soviets were. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: Soviets basically had an attitude, you know, we will tell

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Speaker 1: you what you should think, and if you're confused, will

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Speaker 1: shoot you. Whereas the Chinese common as shame, they have

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Speaker 1: an attitude too, will tell you what you should think,

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Speaker 1: and if you don't quite get it, will tell you

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Speaker 1: again and again and again. Does that strike you as

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Speaker 1: a reasonable analogy? Yeah, And I think there's an important

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Speaker 1: reason to it. I think both countries, the Soviet Union

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Speaker 1: in China, they relied on propaganda a lot. But the

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Speaker 1: key difference is that it goes back to where the

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Speaker 1: legitimacy of the Communist Party comes from. Whether we're talking

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Speaker 1: about the Soviet Union or China. Is that back in

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Speaker 1: the Soviet days, the key words ideology, right, people believe

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Speaker 1: in Marxism or communism, and that lends credibility to the

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Speaker 1: Communist Party. So even if you don't agree, they would

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Speaker 1: just should you. They wouldn't bother to explain. But it's

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Speaker 1: differently in China because nobody in China believes in communism anymore.

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Speaker 1: These days, the Communist Party's legitimacy comes down to its capability,

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Speaker 1: most importantly to deliver economic growth right, And so a

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Speaker 1: lot of policies would rely on explan asians because you

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Speaker 1: can't just say, you know, we are on the ideological

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Speaker 1: on model high ground, so that everybody has to listen.

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Speaker 1: They don't have to listen, hence you need to explain.

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Speaker 1: So in that sense, it seems to me one of

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Speaker 1: the great lessons that Claire Christensen and I got when

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Speaker 1: we wrote our book on Trump and China was that

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Speaker 1: Dong Shaopeng was really a profound break with Mao because

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Speaker 1: I think Mao thought that the ideas mattered and if

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Speaker 1: you were confused about it, that they would send you

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Speaker 1: back to correction camps or send you out to farms.

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Speaker 1: But Doung had concluded that if they couldn't deliver prosperity,

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Speaker 1: they would not survive, that the country would simply rebel right.

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Speaker 1: And I think that has been the model ever since

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Speaker 1: Dung shaping, including his successes John Zamin and Hoojinhau a

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Speaker 1: little bit less under Hoojinhau's time, but gidging thing is

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Speaker 1: a departure from the Dung model, and I think this

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Speaker 1: is many US leads have pointed out over the years

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Speaker 1: as well, that we are seeing a structural change in

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Speaker 1: terms of how the Communist Party is ruling China. And

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you think about it, this is not

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Speaker 1: particularly good news for China because when you are deviating

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Speaker 1: from that model and when the economy is not doing well,

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Speaker 1: you lose a lot of credibility or legitimacy. Right, So

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Speaker 1: if you think about China today, the more I think

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Speaker 1: about it, the more concern I am about peace in

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Speaker 1: the Taiwan straight because once you don't have any other

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Speaker 1: sources of legitimacy, overtaking Taiwan might be Chinnipings last way

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Speaker 1: out in terms of regaining his authority inside the country.

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Speaker 1: The other corollarity of that, it seems to me, is

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Speaker 1: that because of the sheer scale of their population, China

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Speaker 1: is much more dangerous to govern than Russia. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the Russian people have no tradition in the last four

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Speaker 1: or five hundred years of life being good. Most of

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Speaker 1: them were serves prepared, most of them were living in

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Speaker 1: a society that had very difficult winters and where there

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Speaker 1: was a very tiny elite dominating the entire country. But

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Speaker 1: in China, I remember, many years ago I went back

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Speaker 1: and read Chinese medieval novels, the actually books that Mausidung

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Speaker 1: had read, And what struck me was how in a

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Speaker 1: sense western they were. These were people who wanted to

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Speaker 1: live well, they liked women, they wanted to drink, they

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Speaker 1: wanted to make money. I mean, they were about humans

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Speaker 1: being normal in a way that you don't find in

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Speaker 1: a lot of Russian novels. At the same time, the

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Speaker 1: capacity of the Chinese people to rebel has historically been enormous,

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Speaker 1: and the Typing rebellion, as you know, probably killed something

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Speaker 1: like seventy five million people. When the Chinese leaders look

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Speaker 1: at the danger of unrest, they're really looking at a

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Speaker 1: radically different problem than the Russians. Yeah, that's absolutely right.

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Speaker 1: I think there's a sense in which Chinese people care

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Speaker 1: about what we can loosely call relative deprivation. Right, So

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Speaker 1: you don't want to be deprived relative to other people,

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Speaker 1: which makes an income in equality a huge problem in China,

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Speaker 1: but you also don't want to be deprived relative to

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Speaker 1: your relatively better path, right. I think about the last

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Speaker 1: twenty years, China was much better in terms of the

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Speaker 1: economy than it is today and also in terms of

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Speaker 1: human freedom too. I grew up in China, mister speaker,

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Speaker 1: in the time when reform was the main theme. I

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Speaker 1: went to college at the time when kids were able

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Speaker 1: to check out Flora at other universities in terms of

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Speaker 1: like what they talked about, whether they complained about their

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Speaker 1: food or whatnot. But very quickly after President who Jentil

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Speaker 1: took office, they shut down that channel two. I remember

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Speaker 1: distinctively in the second year of my college time in

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Speaker 1: two thousand and four after who came in all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, you couldn't look at what kids were talking

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Speaker 1: about at Chinha University or Picking University, which I didn't go,

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Speaker 1: but I was curious. You couldn't even see what they

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Speaker 1: were talking about. So I think Chinese people now they

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Speaker 1: remember they have lived through those years when things were

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Speaker 1: relatively better, and so seeing how narrow the space is

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Speaker 1: for civil society, I think people recognize that, and a

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Speaker 1: lot of people in trying to complain about that. So

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Speaker 1: if we think back at the great leap forward on

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Speaker 1: the Mao ma almost lost power briefly right because of

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Speaker 1: the disastrous outcome of his policy, and we were talking

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Speaker 1: about the Great Family in China, where you know, millions

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Speaker 1: of people die, right, Like you said, millions of people

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Speaker 1: could die, and that at the time threatened the rule

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Speaker 1: of the CCP. But nowadays, I don't think it would

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Speaker 1: take that many people to die to threaten the rule

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Speaker 1: of CCP, because now they have seen much better. Chinese

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Speaker 1: people are not like the Soviets who did not see

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Speaker 1: anything better. We'll confess upfront. I'm one of those who

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Speaker 1: thinks it's extraordinarily unlikely that the Chinese communists will invade Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: very likely to harass Taiwan. Well, what is your take?

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you were looking out over the next

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Speaker 1: twenty years, do you think it is likely that either

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Speaker 1: current leadership Jin in Pain or his successor would actually

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Speaker 1: take the risk of militarily trying to occupy Taiwan. I

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Speaker 1: think I'm more pessimistic than you are, mister speaker. It's

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Speaker 1: interesting that you thought that the probability is very low.

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Speaker 1: I thought it's much higher than you do. And I

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Speaker 1: think it goes back to the reasoning we talk about.

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Speaker 1: There's several ways to communist parties derive legitimacy. There's what

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Speaker 1: I call the Sawd and Pepper like decorational, which is

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Speaker 1: like meeting with foreign leaders, especially those from more powerful countries, right,

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Speaker 1: having good photo ops. Those would boost legitimacy a little bit.

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Speaker 1: And the Chinese they do care about that a lot.

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Speaker 1: Another word, to pretend that you have some sort of

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Speaker 1: a democratic institutions, So you have a party congress representative,

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Speaker 1: they get to vote. It's not real vote, but they

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Speaker 1: pretend to have a voting system. They pretend that Shijing

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Speaker 1: Pink was actually elected by the members of the party

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Speaker 1: that also is salt and pepper, because people in China

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Speaker 1: they recognize that's not a real deal. So we're down

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Speaker 1: to the sources of legitimacy being ideology or performance. I

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Speaker 1: think the CCP is not doing well on ideology front

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Speaker 1: because they don't have Marxism anymore, and so now they're

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Speaker 1: sort of restoring to nationalism, the national identity, you know,

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Speaker 1: the humiliation of decades of being invaded by foreign powers

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Speaker 1: and all that. That's what shijinks struggle. The concept of

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Speaker 1: struggle is talking about is the humiliating past of the

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Speaker 1: country that's not doing as much. So the problem is

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Speaker 1: that now when you hype up the nationalism, a lot

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Speaker 1: of people in China, they are supportive of taking back Taiwan.

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Speaker 1: If you think that the reasons visit by Speaker Pelosi

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Speaker 1: to Taiwan. Afterwards China did some military exercise right then. Actually,

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Speaker 1: there are people on the internet from mainland China complaining

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Speaker 1: about not seeing anything more specific. They were like, oh,

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Speaker 1: I mean, you said, it's so humiliar thing to us,

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Speaker 1: and why don't we just send troops over and take

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Speaker 1: back to the island. People actually complain about the lack

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Speaker 1: of delivery by the Chinese Communist Party. I think when

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Speaker 1: you hype up that enough now hiding pea will be

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Speaker 1: cornered to at some point deliver. I think that's where

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Speaker 1: the danger is. I see yea, and that could be,

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Speaker 1: of course a real disaster depending on part of what

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Speaker 1: we do. Absolutely, I think the best case scenario would

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Speaker 1: be that China would take back Taiwan in that best

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Speaker 1: case scenario for the CCP, But even so, I think

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Speaker 1: the economic costs to the Chinese economy would be huge

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Speaker 1: because at the minimum Western powers would have to sanction

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Speaker 1: China for long time, right, and China will be practically

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Speaker 1: separated from the world economy, which they are not right now. Right. So,

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Speaker 1: a new study that just came out today as we speak,

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Speaker 1: from csis by a couple of China scholars. They basically

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Speaker 1: pointed out that economically speaking, even if China wins, even

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Speaker 1: if China successfully reunited Taiwan, the economic costs will be

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Speaker 1: huge to them. Both Republican Senator Tim Cotton and the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Senator Intelligence Community Chair Mark Warner have called TikTok

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Speaker 1: a Chinese surveillance tool. Are you willing to use TikTok

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Speaker 1: and how do you see TikTok. No, no way I'm

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Speaker 1: using TikTok. Not that I don't like the platform. I

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Speaker 1: think the security risk is pretty well understood by the

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Speaker 1: people who followed that. I think when we talk about TikTok,

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Speaker 1: I think it's a good example to show that how

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Speaker 1: partisan politics in the United States is hurting our security

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Speaker 1: inches sometimes because when former President Trump was taking on

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Speaker 1: this issue, remembered some people on the left were attacking

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Speaker 1: him for saying that, oh, he was just going after

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Speaker 1: TikTok because his campaign rally was you know, people use

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Speaker 1: TikTok to sort of boycott that so that people didn't

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Speaker 1: buy it the tickets to go to his rally, And

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Speaker 1: that's why he's angry about TikTok. No TikTok. It's a

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Speaker 1: machine for the CCP to have information of foreigners who

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Speaker 1: would use that app. I think this is very clear,

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Speaker 1: and now people are coming around to recognize that. But

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Speaker 1: had we not had such a divisive politics, we would

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Speaker 1: have come around to tackle the issue much sooner. And

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Speaker 1: I think TikTok on we Chad and other technology companies

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Speaker 1: from China, they are posing a legitimate security threat to

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Speaker 1: the United States. When you look at the initial scale

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Speaker 1: of advantage that Google and Facebook and Amazon and others have.

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Speaker 1: Isn't it kind of just an interesting phenomenon that the

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Speaker 1: Chinese came up with TikTok. There's no denial that some

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Speaker 1: Chinese entrepreneurs they have real innovations. Like I think TikTok

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Speaker 1: as a platform per se, in terms of content wise,

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Speaker 1: it's an innovation compared to Facebook or Twitter. It provides

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Speaker 1: something that they just can't. For people who have very

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Speaker 1: short attention span and who likes videos, TikTok works much

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Speaker 1: better than the other outlet. The problem, it's not about

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Speaker 1: the format, It's about the security concerns that's hidden in

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Speaker 1: the back end of these technologies, right, And I think

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Speaker 1: that's what gathers. But the two fed together. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if checktok were boring and nobody used it, we wouldn't

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Speaker 1: care that the Chinese can access it. On the other hand,

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Speaker 1: if an American company and event a TikTok, we wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be worried about the back end. So I think TikTok

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Speaker 1: is a very interesting phenomenon, just as Huawei in the

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Speaker 1: area of five G is a remarkable achievement and a

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Speaker 1: huge security threat to the Western world. Absolutely. I think

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Speaker 1: that if you look at these companies, they are private companies,

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Speaker 1: they're not stayed owned. The same for Hway as well.

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Speaker 1: People accused Hardway of having military ties. They don't even

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Speaker 1: have formal military ties. But that doesn't matter in this

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Speaker 1: day and age, because it used to be that the

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Speaker 1: state owned sector and the private sector in China were

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Speaker 1: fairly separated. I'm talking about the years when I was

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Speaker 1: for example, when I was in China, I remember in

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Speaker 1: the nineties and two thousands, the line was pretty clear,

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Speaker 1: but now it's very blurred because even if you're a

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Speaker 1: private company, when the government asked for it, the companies

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Speaker 1: will surrender information. We have seen that played out in

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Speaker 1: the case of Hardway as well. There was evidence this

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Speaker 1: is from Bloomberg from early this year, early twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: There's reporting apparently that ten years ago it was found

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Speaker 1: in an Australian telecom carrier that used the Hardway devices

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Speaker 1: that there was a bug in the software that would

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Speaker 1: lead to the data being sent straight to Beijing. And

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Speaker 1: the Australian Intelligence Agency found out about this and share

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Speaker 1: with the Americans, and that's why US has been at

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Speaker 1: Harwey for you know, making the accusation at least for decades,

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Speaker 1: and finally we took very firm actions. Before that was known,

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Speaker 1: people thought that, you know, Hargway just a pure cheap

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Speaker 1: technology and using that would make us better off in

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Speaker 1: terms of the economic benefits. That was true, but it's

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Speaker 1: simply because we did not look at the security cost

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Speaker 1: of them. Did you see anything particularly significant coming out

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Speaker 1: of the twentieth National Congress of the Chinese Comunist Party.

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Speaker 1: That's the place where they changed the constitution. So the

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Speaker 1: g basically now is leader for life as I understand it. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: So he changed the rule I think five years ago

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Speaker 1: that says the president of the country, the head of

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Speaker 1: the government could stay on for more than two terms.

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Speaker 1: So that was the change in the constitution. There was

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Speaker 1: never a rule in the charter of the CCP that

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Speaker 1: said the Secretary jeneral cannot stay on forever. So he

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Speaker 1: could potentially now to be the head of the party,

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Speaker 1: in the head of the government forever if he wants.

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Speaker 1: So that's the new situation we're in. He also broke

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Speaker 1: a lot of norms in terms of leadership with shuffles.

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Speaker 1: There's a rule about saying that if you are sixty

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Speaker 1: eight or older, you cannot be elected to the top leadership. Again,

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Speaker 1: he kept several of his key allies over the age

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Speaker 1: limit in the Central Committee, and so I think he

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Speaker 1: was willing to abandon some of even these for the

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Speaker 1: appearance of legitimacy of having rules and following the rules.

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Speaker 1: That puts further pressure on him to deliver in other ways,

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Speaker 1: because he's even losing some of these what I call

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Speaker 1: the salt and pepper. He was a famous scene where

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Speaker 1: his predecessor was kind of escorted out of the Congress.

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Speaker 1: Some people said that's because it was a health problem.

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Speaker 1: Other people said it was a deliberate public humiliation. What

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Speaker 1: was your reading of that moment. There are many, many

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Speaker 1: theories about that. I don't think we will never know

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Speaker 1: enough to say for sure, but I think two things

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Speaker 1: are quite clear from just watching the footage. One is

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Speaker 1: that the former president who did not want to leave,

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Speaker 1: the two guys tried to drag him up. He did

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Speaker 1: not want to leave, and there was a piece of

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Speaker 1: paper under the red cover that he didn't want to

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Speaker 1: see and he was not allowed to see. And there's

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Speaker 1: a high resolution photos showing that when the guy who

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Speaker 1: picked him up, was holding that piece of paper. It

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Speaker 1: seemed to be the list of the people who would

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Speaker 1: be elected to the Central Committee. Was that something in

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Speaker 1: the list of the names who got elected who didn't

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Speaker 1: nike and he wanted to make some protests of it.

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Speaker 1: No one would really know until we had more information.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that, by any stretch of imagination he

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Speaker 1: was ill and had to be taken out for reasons.

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Speaker 1: I totally don't buy that. Is it correct to say

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Speaker 1: that one of the actions of this congress was to

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Speaker 1: really strengthen Jijianping's hand, to bring in more of his allies,

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Speaker 1: and to eliminate his critics. Absolutely. I think there's a

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Speaker 1: faction in the Chinese Communist Party from Communist youth that

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Speaker 1: used to be powerful. So the current leader of that

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Speaker 1: faction is the Premier League Ka Child, who's stepping down

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Speaker 1: in the spring, and we don't see anyone else from

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Speaker 1: that faction to be represented now at the Holy Buro's

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Speaker 1: Standing Committee. So everyone, virtually, every single one of the

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Speaker 1: Central Committee member is the Chinese President's men, and there's

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Speaker 1: no woman. So there's quite a little and they're a

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Speaker 1: little bit younger, aren't they. Some are younger, but some

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Speaker 1: I think there was a general who's like seventy two

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Speaker 1: years old whose father was she's father's body I guess,

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Speaker 1: so they have like family connections and whatnot. But that

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Speaker 1: general was in the Eastern theater facing Taiwan, pretty influential.

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Speaker 1: So we have older generations too, And I think age

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Speaker 1: does not matter. She didn think has some potegas pretty young,

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Speaker 1: but they're very passionate about coming up with theories to

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Speaker 1: legitimize his rules. I don't think age of being a

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Speaker 1: younger does not mean being more hopeful, or more liberal

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Speaker 1: minded or more reformists. I think people should give up

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Speaker 1: on that hope. Every single time there's a new leadership

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Speaker 1: coming up, people would hope for some of them being better.

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Speaker 1: People should just stop doing that. Yeah, somebody said to

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Speaker 1: me that you could think of the governing system as

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Speaker 1: a series of proteges and mentors, not actual family by biology,

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Speaker 1: but family by patronage and by working together and so forth.

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Speaker 1: And it literally comes down in a sort of a

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Speaker 1: whole hierarchy of who's loyal to who, and how they

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Speaker 1: relate to each other, and then ultimately how they relate

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Speaker 1: back to Jan Right, It's always like that but I

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Speaker 1: think in the past you would see two or three factions.

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Speaker 1: When they reached the top, you would see the top

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Speaker 1: leadership being divided by maybe two or three groups. Now

404
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 1: everybody you can chase back to a Cjingping. I remember

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Speaker 1: when John J. Man was in charge. It was sort

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Speaker 1: of a Shanghai mafia, and my senses, that's all been

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Speaker 1: changed now. Yeah, I think all of them are gone.

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Speaker 1: The last remaining one, I would say, was the Communist

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Speaker 1: Youth now represented by Premier Leagua Chang. And there was

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Speaker 1: actually a hope before the Party Congress, at least there's

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Speaker 1: something the West were speculating that, you know, because the

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Speaker 1: economy is doing so poorly, perhaps the Communist Youth faction

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Speaker 1: would rise up, and because they are more practical, at

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Speaker 1: least they care a little bit more on the margin,

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Speaker 1: they care a little bit more about the economy. Maybe

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Speaker 1: they're more practical, they would turn the ship around. That

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Speaker 1: didn't happen either, and in fact they were simply gone.

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Speaker 1: So if you look at the Premier Leagua Cheng, now

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Speaker 1: he's just an ordinary Communist Party member, he's not even

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Speaker 1: in the Central Committee. An ordinary Communist Party member being

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Speaker 1: government for at least the next three months before he's gone.

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Speaker 1: One of the things that I thought was striking Speaker

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Speaker 1: Designate McCarthy has said very clearly they're going to create

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Speaker 1: a Select Committee on China. I was very struck that

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Speaker 1: in the new Chinese Communist Party Plan for building socialism

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Speaker 1: with Chinese characteristics, they have five spheres economic, political, cultural, social,

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Speaker 1: and ecological advancement. And it strikes me that it would

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Speaker 1: be really smart for this new Select Committee to kind

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00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 1: of match up with those spheres and to realize that

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Speaker 1: you can't just be military, it can't just be intelligence,

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00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 1: but you have to understand the totality of the Chinese

432
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,959
Speaker 1: strategy and then measured against what will it require from

433
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 1: the United States in order to overmatch that strategic goal.

434
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 1: Does that make sense to you? I think it makes sense.

435
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 1: And the way I see this question at least is

436
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 1: that it's ruled in the fact that the US and

437
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 1: Chinese economies are so intertwinedment now then twenty years ago,

438
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: So that challenge China post to the United States. It's

439
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 1: not just military, it's not just economic, it's not just technology,

440
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 1: it's all of those things. Because we are so integrated

441
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 1: in this way now so the problem of tackling the

442
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,479
Speaker 1: China challenge now, it's very different if we were to

443
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,879
Speaker 1: tackle the China problem twenty years ago, when China just

444
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 1: join the WTO, it was not even a problem to tackle.

445
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 1: People were actually pretty romantic about that, right, So we're

446
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 1: hoping for all sorts of better futures for China, although

447
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 1: they did not turn out that way. So I think

448
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 1: the China challenge is indeed past many dimensions, and it

449
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 1: would be wise for US leaders to think through them altogether.

450
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 1: That was one of those who thought, and I think

451
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 1: it was clearly a misunderstanding of done Shapay's speeches on

452
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 1: the Southern tour, where I thought he was really communicating

453
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,439
Speaker 1: the need for a market oriented system as a first

454
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 1: step towards modernizing the whole society, when in retrospect he

455
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 1: was saying, no, no, we have to actually go to

456
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 1: a market system to produce enough goodies to sustain the dictatorship,

457
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,719
Speaker 1: not to change it. And so I think almost nobody

458
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 1: in the Western understood that this was all a design

459
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 1: to create a stronger dictatorship, not a first step towards

460
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,160
Speaker 1: a Western style open society. I actually had some doubt

461
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 1: about that because I remember when I graduated from college

462
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 1: in two thousand and six, so I won a little

463
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 1: university medal where I went to college, and the person

464
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 1: who gave me the medal, I remember the story very

465
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 1: clearly for a very good theoretical reason here. It's that

466
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 1: the guy who handed me the medal was the China's

467
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 1: chief negotiator to join the WTO Longing Tool, and I

468
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 1: remember I was not happy about it. I was like, oh,

469
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 1: he's not popular in China. He was not popular in

470
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 1: China because people complain that why I used sacrificing Chinese

471
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 1: national inches so much so that China could join the WTO.

472
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 1: But people in China, I think the majority of the

473
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 1: people in China that I know at the time were

474
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 1: actually still hopeful despite the sacrifice of national interest. They

475
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 1: were happy to joining the WTO so that we could

476
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 1: become better. I think that's the reasoning still valid until

477
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 1: the year around two thousand and six. But then, of

478
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 1: course Hugintail came to power. I think he is the

479
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 1: first Chinese president who really deviated from Danshapin's methodology of

480
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 1: reforming and trying to work on the better future. He

481
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,160
Speaker 1: was the first one who actually started to crush freedom

482
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 1: inside a very limited freedom space of society in China.

483
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,159
Speaker 1: And why do you think they made that pivot towards

484
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 1: a more repressive regime. That's the point that actually the

485
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 1: Policy Change Index provided some insight because when we finished

486
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 1: the project, we looked back and we saw that in

487
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:49,479
Speaker 1: the newspaper they made a huge pivot in propaganda before

488
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 1: they made the huge pivot and policy. So the year

489
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: before hugintail launch into his Harmonious Society policy agenda, they

490
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 1: started to talk about those harmonious societies shoes in the press.

491
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 1: The reason they gave was that we have tried this

492
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 1: market reform, very aggressive market reform for you know, nearly

493
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 1: twenty years now, and we have come to a cross

494
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: road because we have seen a lot of social problems

495
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 1: in the country. We have rising income inequality, we have

496
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,959
Speaker 1: regional disparity, and we have all sorts of housing issues

497
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 1: and whatnot. So the CCP rich a ridiculous conclusion. They said, so,

498
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: because we have so many problems with markets now, we

499
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 1: need government to step into help. I mean, we have

500
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 1: heard these kind of talking points in the US liberals too,

501
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 1: it's just in China. It's a more dramatic version, but

502
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 1: they say, we are the government, we are here to help.

503
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 1: So now let's pull back from reform. Let's stop selling

504
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 1: state owned enterprises. You know they could serve social goods.

505
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 1: So they change all that market oriented talking points in

506
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 1: two thousand and three because they are afraid of some

507
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: of the negative consequence they see as market reforms. Fascinating,

508
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 1: but I want to thank you for joining me watching

509
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: Jijinping and the Chinese Communist Party is so important in the

510
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 1: the United States, and I think, you know, somebody point

511
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 1: out the other day that there are three hundred thousand

512
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 1: Chinese students in America and about three hundred American students

513
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 1: in China. I'm afraid that we just don't spend enough

514
00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 1: time and enough energy trying to understand what is, after all,

515
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 1: one of the two or three most important countries in

516
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 1: the world. So the work you're doing is a big

517
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 1: part of that. And I think that the index you've

518
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 1: created is fascinating. And I hope on occasion that we

519
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 1: can get back together again and you can continue to

520
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 1: give us valuable insights. Oh, thank you very much, Miss

521
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 1: the Speaker for having me. It's always a pleasure to

522
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 1: tab with you. Thank you to my guests doctor Waifangjong.

523
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 1: You can learn more about China on our show page

524
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 1: at newtsworld dot com. News World is produced by Ganglish Street,

525
00:30:56,120 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 1: Sexty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producers Guards Loan, our producers

526
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 1: Rebecca Howe, and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. You all

527
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 1: work for the show was created by Steve Penley. Special

528
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 1: thanks to the team at Gingwish three sixty. If you've

529
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 1: been enjoying newts World, I hope you'll go to Apple

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531
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Speaker 1: us a review so others can learn what it's all about.

532
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 1: Right now, listeners of newts World can sign up from

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Speaker 1: my three free weekly columns at Gingwish three sixty dot

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