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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcast. If you are even remotely

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Speaker 1: a savage, you'll run these people over for a second.

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Speaker 2: Hello, looking for the Action Howork Podcast. UFC Betting Preview.

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Speaker 2: I'm Sean Zilla, joined today by Billy Warred to help

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Speaker 2: you break down a thirteen fight card for UFC three

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Speaker 2: fourteen going down on Saturday in Miami, Florida. Main event

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Speaker 2: featheruweight title bout between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopez for

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Speaker 2: the Ina not interim but vacant featherweight title vacated by

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Speaker 2: Eliot Tapooria. Volkanovsky is sitting at a round a minus

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Speaker 2: one thirty five favorite Lopez plus one twenty three. Fight

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Speaker 2: is about minus one fifty minus one sixty to end

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Speaker 2: inside the distance. I've heard a lot of similar breakdowns

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Speaker 2: on this fight this week. I don't necessarily disagree with

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Speaker 2: the general betting thoughts. Diego Lopez probably a better value

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Speaker 2: to win early, went inside the distance to win in

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Speaker 2: rounds one or round two. If this fight extends, Volkanovsky

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Speaker 2: much more five round experience, much better minute winning abilities,

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Speaker 2: likely year to take over in the third, fourth and

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Speaker 2: fifth rounds with superior cardio, with Lopez not really getting

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Speaker 2: tested in the championship rounds. Billy, I know you bet

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Speaker 2: Lopez earlier in the week. You're interested in coming in

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Speaker 2: on Volkanovsky Live, so kind of aligning with the thoughts

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Speaker 2: that I laid out. I'll have a full preview for

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Speaker 2: this fight off on Action art dot Com in addition

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Speaker 2: to my full card breakdown for all thirteen fights on

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Speaker 2: this card. What are your thoughts on this main event,

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts at the current price point? And

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Speaker 2: then what are you looking to do either from a

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Speaker 2: prop perspective or live betting perspective as a get closer

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Speaker 2: to the fight.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually have not met this one yet. I'm

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Speaker 3: hoping we get even more late money on Vulcan just

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Speaker 3: to get the better fight or better price pre fight

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Speaker 3: on Lopes. It feels like a pretty clear early late dynamic,

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Speaker 3: like one of the more obvious ones I've seen. Not

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Speaker 3: only have we not seen Diego Lopez over five rounds,

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Speaker 3: but he's kind of faded in the third in a

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Speaker 3: couple of his fights when he's been extended, not even

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Speaker 3: counting the Mobsar fight that he took on short notice,

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Speaker 3: but against Ortega and Egay and his last couple didn't

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Speaker 3: look as great down the stretch, which was especially surprising

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Speaker 3: against Egay because that was the one Ega took on

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Speaker 3: like twelve hours notice and had that whole ridiculous thing.

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Speaker 3: Lopez made wait a couple different times. There's some factors,

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Speaker 3: but he still just hasn't been a great guy down

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Speaker 3: the stretch. But Volkanovsky, in his last couple of losses,

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Speaker 3: it's been hyper aggressive striking that got him out of

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Speaker 3: there early. And there's obviously like real concern about Volkanovski's chin.

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Speaker 3: Here at thirty six years old, a couple of bad

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Speaker 3: knockout losses, more than a year out of the cage.

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Speaker 3: That's a double edged sword. You know, it gives your

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Speaker 3: chin time to recover, but also like maybe it just

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Speaker 3: doesn't recover anymore. And we're just now a year older

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Speaker 3: than we were the last time we've seen him. So

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of concern on the Volcanovsky side. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: this fight extends, it should be his fight. He's the

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Speaker 3: better wrestler, should be able to stay safe against the

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Speaker 3: jiu jitsu of Lopez, better pressure, better volume down the stretch,

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Speaker 3: always in great condition, like one of the best conditioned

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Speaker 3: athletes we've ever seen in the UFC. I would say

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Speaker 3: so pretty clear, like I want to come in with

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Speaker 3: plus money on Lopez, and I want, you know, at

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Speaker 3: the end of the first or second round, or really

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Speaker 3: anytime I see Vulcan plus money to just have that

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Speaker 3: portfolio where I get to enjoy the rest of the

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Speaker 3: fight and not especially care who wins because I'm going

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Speaker 3: to make zero point two units or whatever.

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Speaker 2: Either way, two questions for you, is Diego Lopez a

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Speaker 2: better jiu jitsu practitioner than Brian Ortega? And is Diego

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Speaker 2: Opez a better wrestler than Brian or Tega?

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Speaker 3: Thoughts yes and no in in order. I think hard

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Speaker 3: to say for sure. I mean that fight against Ortega

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Speaker 3: was mostly a striking match, so we didn't get a

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Speaker 3: ton of answers on that. Yeah, Ortego went over to

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Speaker 3: maybe Lopez has been a wrestler too. I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I think Lopez might be a better MMA wrestler because

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Speaker 3: he's so aggressive with his strikes. He gives you something

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Speaker 3: else to think about. I think if we put singlests

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Speaker 3: on these guys, Volkanovsky would beat Lopez, Ortego would beat Lopez,

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Speaker 3: Igay would probably beat him in a wrestling match, you know,

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Speaker 3: like a pure wrestling match. MMA wrestling is different though,

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Speaker 3: like when you can set it up with strikes and

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Speaker 3: other things. Lopez might be the better wrestler in that sense.

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Speaker 3: But I see where you're going with this. Because Ortega,

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Speaker 3: you know, had that fight against Volkanowski. There's some grappling there.

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Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on that comparison.

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Speaker 2: If it is, it's not substantial, and I don't think

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Speaker 2: it's substantial enough to win the fight purely on that

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Speaker 2: skill alone. I agree that the biggest danger to Vulcan

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Speaker 2: is the chin, his own chin and getting clipped here

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Speaker 2: early head kick. Ko by Makachev came back two months later,

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Speaker 2: three months later and fought to Poria and got absolutely deaded.

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Speaker 2: Now we both bet to Pouri in that fight. We

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Speaker 2: bet to Porri inside the distance in that fight. I

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Speaker 2: like him taking a nice long layoff to rest that brain.

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Speaker 2: Fourteen months after that knockout to rest is coming back,

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Speaker 2: you know, six years older at the Diego Lopez. Lopez

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Speaker 2: also the taller guy, one inch reach advantage. He's a

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Speaker 2: big guy. He's big and powerful for that first round,

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Speaker 2: second round, but the technique isn't anything Volkanovsky isn't going

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Speaker 2: to be unprepared for. He's an incredible defensive striker. You know,

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Speaker 2: we've seen him get hit and clipped and hurt in

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Speaker 2: the past, even before those knockout losses, like the durability

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Speaker 2: was always a little bit sketchy, but his defensive striking

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Speaker 2: is masterful. His offensive striking, the faints, you know, everything

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Speaker 2: he's doing technically to confuse his opponents overload their decision

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Speaker 2: making absolutely phenomenal. So once Volk starts dictating here, once

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Speaker 2: he starts landing leg kicks, once he starts, you know,

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Speaker 2: being able to keep this fight at range, forcing Diego

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Speaker 2: Lopez to think about multiple things. I think he's just

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Speaker 2: gonna overwhelm Lopez technically on the feet Lopez, unless he's

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Speaker 2: landing those uppercuts or just like finding a huge power shot.

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Speaker 2: I don't really see consistent minute winning here. I think

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Speaker 2: he can win moments. I think he can hurt Volkanovski.

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Speaker 2: I think he can finish the fight in the first

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Speaker 2: couple of rounds. And frankly, betting the volc money line

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Speaker 2: may just like look like an awful bet, right, you know,

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Speaker 2: if Lopez wins, you're gonna be like, why did I

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Speaker 2: bet Volkanovsky? Why did I bet this guy who just

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Speaker 2: got flat line in the first ten minutes, Because that's

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Speaker 2: probably what the loss looks like. Here's my hot take

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Speaker 2: on this fight. I don't think Diego Lopez is any

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Speaker 2: more durable than Alexander Volkanowski knockout losses regionally, hasn't really

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Speaker 2: faced anybody with this technical striking level who can also

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Speaker 2: grapple at this level. Danny Gay got off of a

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Speaker 2: massage table quite literally and won the third round against him.

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Speaker 2: I don't think the cardio's there if this extends to

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Speaker 2: the fourth and fifth rounds, and I do not think

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Speaker 2: the durability is there even from the opening bell. So

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Speaker 2: Volkanovsky knockout live to me at any point during this fight,

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Speaker 2: you know, I think this could go down very similarly

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Speaker 2: to the Chance on junk fight. I think volk may

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Speaker 2: just beat him up for a few rounds and then

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Speaker 2: finish him put him away in the fourth round. Volkanovski

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Speaker 2: in round four at sixteen to one, round five at

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Speaker 2: twenty to one both interest me. He may knock him

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Speaker 2: out before that. You know, he could finish this fight

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Speaker 2: in the first round. I would not be shocked. It's

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Speaker 2: not like I consider Vulk a guy who has significant power.

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Speaker 2: I don't think either of them have good chin, so

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Speaker 2: fight to end inside the distance at minus one sixty

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Speaker 2: seems super appealing. I couldn't make that really past minus

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Speaker 2: one forty, considering it's a featheroid fight. That's right basically

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Speaker 2: in line with the average finish rate for the division,

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Speaker 2: and I don't consider Volkanovsky a particularly potent finisher for

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Speaker 2: the division. In fact, I consider him more of a

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Speaker 2: point fighter. Lopez certainly profiles as much more of a finisher,

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Speaker 2: and I think across five rounds he is likelier to

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Speaker 2: get finished himself too, so Vulk. I made this money

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Speaker 2: line about minus one seventy for volkan I like him

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Speaker 2: pre fight up to about minus one fifty. I'll be

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Speaker 2: adding more live after round one, maybe waiting until after

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Speaker 2: round two, and then those late props intrigued me as well.

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Speaker 2: The last I don't want to mention here. Volke decision

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Speaker 2: only minus two twenty five. I made that prop closer

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Speaker 2: to minus three fifty. I know it's a lot of

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Speaker 2: juice to lay, but if this goes twenty five minutes,

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Speaker 2: I really do not see Lopez winning decision unless he

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Speaker 2: lands knockdowns and three separate rounds, knockdowns in two separate rounds,

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Speaker 2: and vocalitis to survive. What are your thoughts on Lopez

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Speaker 2: winning a decision here versus winning be a finish, Like,

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Speaker 2: do do you give him any.

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Speaker 3: Decision I could to at all? Yeah, when you said

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Speaker 3: you made it minus three fifty, I thought you were

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Speaker 3: going to say like seven hundred or something like, I

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Speaker 3: expected an even bigger number to come out of your mouth.

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Speaker 3: Those are annoying because you feel like you're locking up

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Speaker 3: a bunch of money for a bet that's somewhat likely

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Speaker 3: to just not get graded anyway. So like, I don't

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Speaker 3: know that I would necessarily do that, but that is Yeah,

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Speaker 3: that obviously makes a ton of sense. No, it's interesting

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Speaker 3: you even asked about the grappling because I didn't really

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Speaker 3: even consider Lopez purely out grappling him as like, away

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Speaker 3: this ends like for me, if Lopez wins, it's pretty

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Speaker 3: clearly he overwhelms him early with strikes. I think volkan

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Speaker 3: Off he's gonna come out and be kind of patient

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Speaker 3: and defensive in the first round, just given how his

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Speaker 3: last couple of fights have gone and they're you know,

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Speaker 3: those guys are very good at game planning. They're going

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Speaker 3: to try to let Lopez tire himself out, So I

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Speaker 3: think that Live should be there. The only pushback I'd

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Speaker 3: give you, I don't think you're wrong in that Lopez

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Speaker 3: is also a durability concern, but he is a way

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Speaker 3: more aggressive and powerful striker. So if they both have

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Speaker 3: lower level durability, but one guy hits harder and just

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Speaker 3: hits more at the stage in their career, just does

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Speaker 3: more while he's out there, I think that's the difference

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Speaker 3: and why I like the early upside from Lopez. But

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Speaker 3: other than that, Yeah, it's funny you even asked that

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Speaker 3: because I was like, oh, yeah, I guess in theory,

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Speaker 3: this high level jiu jitsu coach, we would want him

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Speaker 3: to have some grappling upside. But I mean, Bolkanofi has

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Speaker 3: never been submitted by anyone. You could make it.

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Speaker 2: Take it twice very close by Ryan, or take it twice.

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Speaker 3: You could make a case that Lopez is the best

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Speaker 3: pure submission like artist he's faced in his career, and

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Speaker 3: I think I would probably say that that's true. But

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Speaker 3: even so, I'm like, I'm not worried in my heart

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Speaker 3: of hearts that Lopez just puts on a jiu jitsu

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Speaker 3: clinic here, like Volkanovski trains with Craig Jones and all

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Speaker 3: those guys like he's he's covered there. But you can't

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Speaker 3: train and game plan your chin to be better. So

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Speaker 3: that's I think the bigger concern.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely all fair takes. I think on that fight Volkanovski,

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Speaker 2: I think the difference ultimately fifty eight percent striking defense

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Speaker 2: Lopez defense strikes at fifty percent. I know you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: you know, Lopez more powerful, maybe a better chin, but

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Speaker 2: the striking defense I do think neutralizes that two degree.

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Speaker 2: And Volkanovsky he dictates the slow pace earlier. If he's

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Speaker 2: able to keep it slow early, I do think takes

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Speaker 2: over at a strong clip late. Let's move to our

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Speaker 2: fight of the night, a five round lightweight home made

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Speaker 2: event between Michael Chandler and Patti Pimblet. Chandler about plus

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Speaker 2: one thirty, Pimblet about minus one fifty. Fight is minus

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Speaker 2: five point fifty to end inside the distance. I show

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Speaker 2: slight value on the ghost of decision. You know it's

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Speaker 2: a huge number, plus three sixty on the fight to

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Speaker 2: go to a decision, I think think the likeliest finish

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Speaker 2: here is Chandler Viako at three to one. A little

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Speaker 2: bit interested in that. I've gone back and forth so

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Speaker 2: many times on this fight, Billy, I'm having a difficult

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Speaker 2: time getting a read on it. Chandler too. The more

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Speaker 2: you analyze Chandler, he has Kevin Hollins syndrome as well,

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Speaker 2: where he's there to entertain, he's not necessarily there to

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Speaker 2: win the fight. So I'm a little bit more interested

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Speaker 2: in Chandler KO than I would be in his money line.

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Speaker 2: But that said, I do feel like everybody is either

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Speaker 2: on Chandler or passing on the fight. I haven't found

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Speaker 2: a soul who's publicly proclaimed that they're betting Patty Pimblet.

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Speaker 2: So what side are you on of this fight? And

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Speaker 2: then are you interested in any live angles considering Chandler

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Speaker 2: has been five rounds and Patty I don't believe he's

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Speaker 2: been five rounds, or at least if he has, it

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Speaker 2: hasn't been since Cage Warriors.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, like you, I'm really struggling with this fight. I

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Speaker 3: have the full breakdown of this coming out. I have

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Speaker 3: continuously procrastinated on this fight, specifically because I just can't

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Speaker 3: like I've done all my other work for this card

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Speaker 3: other than this one, So I'm like, man, I just

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Speaker 3: don't know. If I had to pick a money line

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Speaker 3: side gun into my head, I think it would be Pimblet,

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Speaker 3: which is scary, but like, I think one of the

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Speaker 3: things that you and I both do fairly well here

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Speaker 3: is like Project Fighters progression pretty well, where we're not

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Speaker 3: just looking at what they have done, we're looking at

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Speaker 3: what we expect them to do moving forward. And it's

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Speaker 3: been a long time since we saw Michael Chandler. I mean,

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Speaker 3: the Olive Air Fight wasn't that long ago, but he

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Speaker 3: had a long gap between then, so the last time

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Speaker 3: we saw him win was three ish years ago against

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Speaker 3: the ghost of Tony Ferguson. With that said, it's a

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Speaker 3: huge step down in competition for Chandler and a huge

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Speaker 3: step up for Pimblet, which is concerning. I've you know,

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Speaker 3: I faded Patty, I bet on Patty, I bet him

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Speaker 3: against King Green. I've gone back and forth. He has

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Speaker 3: looked better every fight pretty consistently since he's been in

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Speaker 3: the UFC. That won't happen forever, right like, at a

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Speaker 3: certain point you hit your ceiling. But he's still just thirty.

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Speaker 3: He seems to be taking things more seriously, you know,

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Speaker 3: like we had that conversation with him about a year

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Speaker 3: ago at this point, and he seems a lot more dedicated,

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Speaker 3: a lot more focused than he was earlier in his career,

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Speaker 3: where you could argue that he had Kevin Holland syndrome

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Speaker 3: early where he was just trying to be fun and

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Speaker 3: entertain and you kind of saw around the Jared Gordon

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Speaker 3: Tony Ferguson fights where he's taking it a little bit

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Speaker 3: more seriously, trying to win. What I have in our

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Speaker 3: sheet now, which like subject to change, follow me in

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Speaker 3: the app. I haven't put anything in yet, like I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna watch more tape. I have Patty subb at plus

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Speaker 3: two fifty and I almost took the split Pimblet submission,

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Speaker 3: Chandler knockout with drafting unless you do like one of

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Speaker 3: either guys, and I think that was like minus one ten.

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Speaker 3: I think those are the two most likely outcomes. Chandler

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Speaker 3: just makes so many mistakes on the ground. I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure how it gets to the ground. That's my concern

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Speaker 3: with Pimblet submission, because Chandler is a much better wrestler,

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Speaker 3: but Is he just going to wrestle himself into trouble.

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Speaker 3: Is he gonna be swinging wildly and give Patty a

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Speaker 3: chance to jump on his back stand or something like.

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Speaker 3: That's the risk there is how we get down there.

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Speaker 3: The other one, though, the bet I do really really like,

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Speaker 3: is a point to be deducted at twenty to one

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Speaker 3: on DraftKings. Everyone's been talking about Chandler's rampant cheating this week.

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Speaker 3: Patty Pimblet said in an interview He's going to talk

286
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Speaker 3: to the rest before the fight and say, like, here's

287
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Speaker 3: the things we've seen him doing, please look out for those,

288
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Speaker 3: and that can work, right, Like if you tell the

289
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Speaker 3: raft like he's probably gonna grab my gloves and then

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Speaker 3: he does, it raises the odds. The one thing I'll

291
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Speaker 3: note on that is I'm waiting for the referee assignments

292
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Speaker 3: to come out, and if it is Mike Belchan working

293
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Speaker 3: this fight, I'm not taking the beat because Mike Belchan

294
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Speaker 3: will sternly yell at you, just give you the business

295
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Speaker 3: like he's your dad, and then never take a point away.

296
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Speaker 3: I've never seen him take a point from anyone, despite

297
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Speaker 3: like rampant cheating. Other referees there's you know, wide variety,

298
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Speaker 3: like you've complained about Mark Smith, sometimes right away, sometimes never.

299
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Speaker 3: I can deal with that wide range of outcomes at

300
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Speaker 3: twenty to one, but like Mike Belchan absolutely will not

301
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Speaker 3: take a point, so any other I'm betting that at

302
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Speaker 3: zero point one unit. And yeah, I think Chandler live

303
00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:06,160
Speaker 3: is probably the side I know you asked about that.

304
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Speaker 3: I don't know like it feels right because he says

305
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Speaker 3: gone five rounds, but he hasn't done anything great at

306
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Speaker 3: the end of fights. When he goes five rounds like

307
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Speaker 3: he's been there, he's still trying, which is more than

308
00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:20,360
Speaker 3: we've seen that at Patty. But I don't know how

309
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Speaker 3: I feel about that one. I'm not like rushing to

310
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Speaker 3: make sure I get that angle in.

311
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Speaker 2: Yeah, he heard Charles in round five he almost swung

312
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Speaker 2: that fight late. That was a crazy ending. But Chandler typically,

313
00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,120
Speaker 2: I mean the Dustin Poye fight. I lie bet against

314
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Speaker 2: Chandler after round one. Chandler is typically a guy I

315
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Speaker 2: bet against after the first round because he does throw

316
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Speaker 2: everything into his attacks, into his you know, striking overhands

317
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Speaker 2: in round one, and then he typically has nothing left

318
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Speaker 2: for round two. In round three, it seemed like he

319
00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:51,800
Speaker 2: found a second win in that Charles fight. Now I

320
00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:53,840
Speaker 2: was wrong about Patty. He does have a couple of

321
00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:56,760
Speaker 2: fights from Cage Warriors. Beat Juliana Ross over five rounds

322
00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,360
Speaker 2: in Cage Warriors. He lost in that nearer Moaney, so

323
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Speaker 2: he does have round experience. This is not necessarily new

324
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Speaker 2: for him. Maybe an adrenaline dump first UFC, you know,

325
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Speaker 2: kind of main event spot co made events, spot on

326
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Speaker 2: a pay per view with the walkout crowd. Maybe against

327
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Speaker 2: him in Florida. Michael Chandler may have the crowd here,

328
00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:18,360
Speaker 2: you know, normally Patty in England having all the fans

329
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Speaker 2: at his back, Like this is a little bit of

330
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Speaker 2: a different environment. That's that. I think Patty's leg kicks

331
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,640
Speaker 2: are going to be super useful here. He's really big,

332
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Speaker 2: Like I don't think his size gets talked enough about,

333
00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:32,560
Speaker 2: just like he was towering over Bobby Green in that fight.

334
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:34,600
Speaker 2: He even mentioned to us in the interview like he

335
00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:36,840
Speaker 2: could see like when Bobby met him and then when

336
00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:39,480
Speaker 2: they were in the cage, like Bobby was like shocked

337
00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,320
Speaker 2: at how big he was. Also thought, I remember back

338
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:43,960
Speaker 2: to the interview, we have the Patty he said he

339
00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:45,800
Speaker 2: didn't want to fight Michael Chandler, not because he didn't

340
00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,800
Speaker 2: want to fight him, but he likes Michael Chandler. He

341
00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:51,680
Speaker 2: like likes his style, he likes him as a person,

342
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Speaker 2: So this is kind of a fun fight. In general,

343
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Speaker 2: I think they have like very similar energy, you know,

344
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Speaker 2: in terms of like the way they are on the microphone,

345
00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:04,400
Speaker 2: the way they promote themselves. Two very big personalities, two

346
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:06,840
Speaker 2: guys I typically bet against because I think they're both

347
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:10,199
Speaker 2: overrated by the betting market. Ultimately, I don't know if

348
00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,280
Speaker 2: I'm going to play anything here. It seems like somebody

349
00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,119
Speaker 2: would get finished. That is a huge number though in

350
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,240
Speaker 2: the fight. To go to a decision at plus three

351
00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,399
Speaker 2: sixty and then Chandler three to one by KO the

352
00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:22,199
Speaker 2: only two ways I would probably consider playing this. I

353
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,760
Speaker 2: really don't see Chandler getting submitted unless he's exhausted and

354
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:29,160
Speaker 2: wants a way out. But I will say of all

355
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Speaker 2: fighters who are ranked top ten in their divisions in

356
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Speaker 2: the UFC, Michael Chandler might have the worst chin. This

357
00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:39,320
Speaker 2: is a spot conceivably where Patty Pimlett, whose power I

358
00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:41,879
Speaker 2: do not rate, could get a knockout just because I

359
00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:44,520
Speaker 2: mean Chandler was knocked down by Tony Ferguson. Chandler seemingly

360
00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:47,199
Speaker 2: gets knocked down in every fight. Now. He does not

361
00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,359
Speaker 2: have a good chin, And I do think a Patty

362
00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,840
Speaker 2: ko is live here, not something i'll bet, not something

363
00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:56,160
Speaker 2: I would probably ever bet against virtually anybody, because again

364
00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,440
Speaker 2: I do not rate Patty's power, But I think Chandler

365
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,520
Speaker 2: is a guy who could get clipped. So I know,

366
00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:06,840
Speaker 2: I said Patty power just like very very natural ad

367
00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,359
Speaker 2: drop there if they want to give us any money.

368
00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,040
Speaker 2: But Yo, what do you think about Patty winning be

369
00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,720
Speaker 2: a KO here, Billy, just because Chandler's lack of durability.

370
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:19,200
Speaker 2: Also around Warward Folver, you know, war like four months ago,

371
00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:20,639
Speaker 2: chin could be a little crack too.

372
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:24,040
Speaker 3: Right, there's I think there's a grounded pound angle. There's

373
00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:27,399
Speaker 3: probably the likeliest because you know Patty he does the

374
00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:29,439
Speaker 3: kind of jiu jitsu for mma that I really like

375
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:31,240
Speaker 3: where he gets to a good position and kind of

376
00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:33,919
Speaker 3: softens you up, other than King Green, who just like

377
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:35,760
Speaker 3: fell right into a triangle like that was kind of

378
00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:39,080
Speaker 3: a weird one. But yeah, there's another fighter we're going

379
00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:40,560
Speaker 3: to talk about where I think the ground of pound

380
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:44,840
Speaker 3: angle is awesome, but I could see I would expect

381
00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,439
Speaker 3: to knock out from Paddy to come more likely on

382
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:49,080
Speaker 3: the ground than on the feet. I guess it's the

383
00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,520
Speaker 3: best way i'd phrase that, so that wouldn't shock me,

384
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,200
Speaker 3: which maybe means I just play pimblet inside the distance

385
00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:55,760
Speaker 3: and hope he gets a take down and does something

386
00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:57,880
Speaker 3: down there. But I don't know. Like you guys will

387
00:18:57,880 --> 00:18:59,959
Speaker 3: have to read my article, I'll have a more definitive

388
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,160
Speaker 3: have thought later in the week. This is a really

389
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,600
Speaker 3: tough one. My argument against the Chandler knockout though, is

390
00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 3: that Skousers don't get knocked out. This is the thing

391
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 3: we know, we've been told. I haven't seen it happen yet.

392
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 3: I haven't seen a Skouser get knocked out, so I

393
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:14,520
Speaker 3: don't know why this would be the first time.

394
00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,520
Speaker 2: Great fight. Maybe my fourth favorite fight on the card.

395
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:21,480
Speaker 2: This is a pretty good card for UFC three to fourteen.

396
00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:23,639
Speaker 2: My favorite fight on the card is going to be

397
00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 2: our combined our consensus favorite underdog play. That is Patrico

398
00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:33,119
Speaker 2: Freer Throughtreco Pitbull going against the Erroo Rodriguez. Patrico, former

399
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,920
Speaker 2: Belator champion, two division champion coming over to the UFC. Now,

400
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,240
Speaker 2: I believe thirty seven years old, a little bit late

401
00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:42,399
Speaker 2: in his career. Wish he was coming over closer to

402
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 2: his prime so people can see what this guy could

403
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,560
Speaker 2: actually do. But I think he is the grappling upside

404
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,359
Speaker 2: here against the Erro Rodriguez, And I think in any fight,

405
00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:51,959
Speaker 2: anybody who's willing to stand in tough with the eat

406
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:55,199
Speaker 2: those kicks, press forward, pressure him and put hands on

407
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 2: your ear is going to have success against him. To me,

408
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 2: any time, Yeah, Year faces any adversity, aside from the

409
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,439
Speaker 2: Max Holloway fight, he backs down. He just does not

410
00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 2: like getting hit. He doesn't seem to like being in

411
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,920
Speaker 2: a fight. He likes to do his flashy techniques. He

412
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:12,840
Speaker 2: likes to land them on people. He likes to hear

413
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,280
Speaker 2: the ooze and ohs from the crowd. But the moment

414
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 2: you bring the fight to he Yarira Rodriguez, he typically

415
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 2: backs down a little bit. He does have the size advantage,

416
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 2: I have the leg link advantage. He might be able

417
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 2: to head kick Patricio from across the cage, but I

418
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,920
Speaker 2: like Patricio's pressure and I like his grappling upside here.

419
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,400
Speaker 2: At plus money, this is a very smart fighter. He's

420
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 2: not necessarily coming in here to put on a show

421
00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 2: or to strike it out for fifteen minutes. I do

422
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 2: think he mixes in the grappling and the moment he does.

423
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,360
Speaker 2: I think yeaers game is going to fall apart. Patricio

424
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:45,919
Speaker 2: at about plus one seventy Billy, I know you're on

425
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,240
Speaker 2: that bet with me. Consensus underdog play. Where do you

426
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 2: like that down to and what I'm missing terms of

427
00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 2: my breakdown.

428
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:53,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I did the full breakdown for this one. It

429
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,000
Speaker 3: was an interesting fight to break down. I mean one

430
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,440
Speaker 3: because when we're getting guys from other organizations, there's sometimes

431
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 3: questions about quality of competition. But like Pitple won multiple titles.

432
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,840
Speaker 3: He won the lightweight title for Balatoor by knocking out

433
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 3: Michael Chandler, so like we've seen him against UFC caliber

434
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 3: guys plenty, so I'm not too worried about that. It's

435
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:17,160
Speaker 3: very interesting stylistically because Yahia Rodriguez has the taekwondo background.

436
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 3: Guys like that they need space and time to set up,

437
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 3: like the long spinning, hooking, jumping, whatever attacks and Pitbull

438
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 3: is actually a guy who will give you that space,

439
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 3: Like he really likes to claim the center of the

440
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,160
Speaker 3: cage and kind of weight you out to counter strike,

441
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,119
Speaker 3: so that's working against Pitbull. But what he does that

442
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 3: works really well for him is he has vicious cafkicks

443
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 3: like he was one of the first people to adopt

444
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 3: that technique really well, and with yay is always bouncing

445
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,119
Speaker 3: from leg to leg, and if you can time one

446
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 3: of those where you kick the leg that has all

447
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 3: the weight on it, he is going to destroy that

448
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,640
Speaker 3: front leg as Yaya is bouncing around in front of him,

449
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 3: So those kind of neutralized to me. The other bat

450
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 3: I have on this is pit Bull's finish, only he's

451
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,359
Speaker 3: just so much more power and so much more ability

452
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 3: to do that. The reason I like that, and I'm

453
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 3: splitting my exposure is Yahya's going to throw more and flashier,

454
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 3: which I think could potentially sway the judges. Where Pitbull

455
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 3: is going to have the bigger moments. He's going to have,

456
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 3: you know, the quality over the quantity here, which gives

457
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 3: him a better odds of a finish. I think if

458
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,919
Speaker 3: this goes to a decision, we're going to be feeling

459
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 3: pretty good about our pit ball tickets and then possibly

460
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:27,360
Speaker 3: let down because some judge thought the spinning hook kick

461
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 3: that bounced off his arm, you know, one a round

462
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 3: for yeah ar Rodriguez, which it shouldn't, but you never

463
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 3: know how those are going to be judged. So that's

464
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 3: why I'm splitting with the finish only at plus one ten.

465
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 3: I think I take the money line down to like

466
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 3: plus one thirty or plus one forty. You mentioned it

467
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 3: in terms of the striking. Yeah, here doesn't like to

468
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 3: be in a fight. He also kind of makes bad

469
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,920
Speaker 3: decisions on the ground, like he's looking for flashy submissions

470
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 3: on the ground rather than getting out of bad positions.

471
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,439
Speaker 3: And it's great when he throws up a triangle and

472
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,480
Speaker 3: you know, wins an interim championship or whatever, but most

473
00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 3: of the time that doesn't work right, Like most of

474
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 3: the time you're just stuck in a bad spot getting

475
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 3: slowly beat up. So, yeah, I'm never gonna bet your

476
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:08,919
Speaker 3: Rodriguez is a favorite. I don't think against a similarly

477
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 3: level opposition. Just a matter of how we get the

478
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:13,119
Speaker 3: freer exposure.

479
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 2: I think a couple on the other underdogs you're interested

480
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 2: in betting on this card, freer the only pitbull, the

481
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 2: only underdog I'm particularly interested from a moneyline perspective. But

482
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 2: let's move on to Dan Egay against Sean Woodson. Ega

483
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 2: very compact, tons of power, as we mentioned, came off

484
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 2: literally a massage table against Diego Lopez on about four

485
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 2: six hours noticed and one round three against them, so

486
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 2: really good cardio, very durable, hits extremely hard. Sean Woodson

487
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,479
Speaker 2: though big height to reach advantage here, He's six foot two.

488
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 2: I think Egay is going to struggle with the range.

489
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 2: Woodson should have more volume, but EGA is going to

490
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 2: have the bigger moments, more power. Do you think he

491
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 2: can knock Woodson out? Do you think he can hurt Woodson?

492
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 2: Do you think he's capable of winning decision here just

493
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 2: by land the bigger shots compared to Woodson's volume, and

494
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 2: then any other betting angles for you on this fight.

495
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 2: I'm interested in Ega by decision plus three ninety, But

496
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:09,239
Speaker 2: do you like the moneyline prop or the do you

497
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,119
Speaker 2: like his knockout prop instead of decision?

498
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 3: I'm taking his money line. I'm a little bit torn here.

499
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 3: I think if Egay is going to finish Woodson here,

500
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 3: and this is somewhat likely, it's with strikes to the

501
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,159
Speaker 3: body because a super tall, skinny guy like that, and

502
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 3: Egay is a very good body puncher like we see

503
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 3: him do it a lot. Some of the better boxing

504
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 3: at one five I think out of Dan Egay. And

505
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,439
Speaker 3: then the other factor is if he chooses to wrestle,

506
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 3: which he's actually very good at, he should have a

507
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 3: huge grappling advantage over Woodson, Like the best way to

508
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 3: fight a tall, skinny guy is to just put him

509
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 3: on his back, where that height advantage doesn't matter, and

510
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 3: if anything, that length works against you on the ground

511
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,680
Speaker 3: because they're just more limbed to attack. You know, it's

512
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 3: harder to squeeze your elbow in there and trimp out

513
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 3: when your arm is twice as long as the other guy.

514
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 3: So I like your angle. I think decision is probably

515
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 3: the likelier outcome. But hurting him with body shots and

516
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 3: dropping him, or you know, dropping him with a body

517
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,640
Speaker 3: shot and getting a subm on the ground, those all

518
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 3: seem somewhat likely for me, and I plus one fifty

519
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 3: I'm happy to just take Danny Gay's money line. There

520
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 3: also Danny Gay one of my favorite DFS salary savers,

521
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 3: because the floor case for Ega is probably a fifteen

522
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 3: minute decision loss where he kind of gets jabbed at

523
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 3: range but still does some strike and the upside is massive,

524
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 3: so figured i'd throw that in there. Yeah, I'm betting

525
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 3: on him and we'll have a ton of DFS exposure

526
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 3: flyweight fights.

527
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:29,159
Speaker 2: Sumiderge against Mitch Riposo Roposo about a plus one sixty

528
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 2: five underdog. I like this fight to go to decision.

529
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 2: I made that closer to minus two hundred. I took

530
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:38,199
Speaker 2: minus one thirty six at FanDuel striker versus grappler, But

531
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 2: not as binary as that may appear, just because Sue struggles.

532
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 2: Sue has really struggled on bottom of the path. I

533
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 2: think his grappling is defensive. Grappling has gotten a little

534
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 2: bit better of the two. I'm actually more concerned about

535
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 2: Sue via ko than I am about Riposo via submission.

536
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 2: Could see either of them finishing, just expected to go

537
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 2: to a decision more freaquently in the odds suggest. But

538
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 2: if it's going to a decision, Billy, that probably helps

539
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 2: the underdog Orposo, who could win a crappling oriented, control

540
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 2: based decision. How do you see this fight playing out?

541
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on the GTT prop.

542
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you nailed it saying that the Summadergi

543
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 3: quick knockout is probably the biggest concern I bet Mitch

544
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 3: Roposo when his plus one seventy earlier in the week.

545
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 3: I think i'd still take his plus one forty five.

546
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 3: But if you hadn't got the better line, I might

547
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 3: pivot to Riposo by decision. I am very scared he

548
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 3: just gets starched in the first like minute and a

549
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 3: half by Summaderji. But fun stat Sumaderji is three and

550
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 3: four in the UFC, and he has lost every single

551
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 3: fight in which his opponent landed even one pickout, Like

552
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,400
Speaker 3: if you take him down even once you have won

553
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 3: against him, and he's been submitted in three of those fights.

554
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 3: Riposo was a state champion wrestler in high school and

555
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 3: to BJJ BlackBelt, So if he doesn't get started early,

556
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,119
Speaker 3: I think pretty easily takes over with the grappling, might

557
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 3: get a finish, might get a decision. I'm totally sure.

558
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 3: I like Proposo. I'm very worried he just gets obliterated early.

559
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 3: So the plus one seventy made that more palatable at

560
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 3: this point. I don't think i'd lay juice on the

561
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 3: goes to a decision. I think I would just throw

562
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 3: Roposo in there because I don't really see Sumadergy winning

563
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 3: the decision. I get the angle. I just I don't

564
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,719
Speaker 3: see I see that correlation. I think a little bit

565
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 3: stronger than you're projecting it.

566
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:26,160
Speaker 2: I think Sue's power is a little bit overrated. He's

567
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 2: a great sniper. He's a really long reach. He leverages

568
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 2: you know, into those longer kicks and punches really well.

569
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 2: I don't know if the power is there, though he's

570
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 2: really tall and skinny, like, I don't know if the

571
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 2: pop is there. I do consider Roposo more durable, you know,

572
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 2: than the average fly weight probably. I don't know about

573
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,159
Speaker 2: your thoughts on his general durability, but I think he

574
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 2: could survive the damage mixing the grappling, and then once

575
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 2: he starts mixing in the grappling, you know, then they're

576
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 2: in a fight. I think that's where likelier goes fifty minutes.

577
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 2: Like you said, every time Sue's been taken down, he's

578
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 2: lost in the UFC. I think he gets taken down

579
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 2: here in round one pretty consistently, whether he gets submitted

580
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 2: or you know, unable to scramble or defend those takedowns.

581
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 2: That's the part of his game. I think he's improved,

582
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 2: you know, throwing up a triangle against Was it Charles Johnson?

583
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:15,919
Speaker 3: Johnson? Yeah?

584
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 2: Or a dart? Was it a dars? He's just like

585
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 2: we talked about this too in recent weeks. When guys

586
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 2: start to show a little bit more confidence in their

587
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 2: offensive wrestling or offensive grappling, I think it's a good

588
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 2: sign for their confidence and their defensive grappling as well.

589
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 2: They were willing to initiate. They feel better about the

590
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,399
Speaker 2: overall part of their game. Let's move on to our

591
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 2: top props. We have a consensus prop here on Chase

592
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 2: Hooper by Ko at six to one. I made this

593
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 2: plus three fifty in my projections. I think Jim Miller

594
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 2: is going to be more competitive than his money line

595
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 2: suggest For the first round, I think he gets hurt Chase.

596
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 2: I think he may be able to put a guillotine

597
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 2: on Chase in his giraffe neck. But after those five

598
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 2: to six minutes, I think Chase Hooper takes over this fight.

599
00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 2: Chase late props probably good, even though they're three to

600
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 2: fifteen plus five hundred. The best angle to me seems

601
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 2: like Chase Hooper by Ko at six to one. I

602
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 2: like that down to about plus four hundred. Billy consensus

603
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 2: top prop play. Saw this in the sheet from you

604
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 2: when I locked in last night, was happy to co

605
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 2: sign on it. Tell me how you see this fight

606
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 2: playing out, Your thoughts on late props here, your thoughts

607
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 2: on a potential same game parlay with Hooper and the

608
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 2: over one and a half rounds, because that's about a

609
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 2: pick and price than any other ways you're attacking this fight.

610
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,239
Speaker 2: Hooper live, I would imagine would be an angle too

611
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 2: if he loses round one.

612
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've been meaning I keep forgetting to mention this,

613
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 3: this whole card and shout out to Dan Tom for

614
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 3: pointing this out. It is tall young guys against short

615
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 3: old guys, and this fight is probably the epitome of

616
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 3: that because Chase Hooper is what like fifteen years younger

617
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 3: than Jim Miller or something like that. At this point,

618
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 3: it's kind of just like a system thing for me here.

619
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 3: Chase Hooper is like almost a minus one thousand favorite.

620
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 3: So when a guy is that heavily favored, we think

621
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 3: he probably finishes the fight more often than not, because

622
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 3: it's hard to look like minus one thousand and a

623
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 3: decision unless you're a Tilda Allen Carr against nessa Demopolis

624
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 3: from last week, so he's like minus one thousand to finished.

625
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 3: Jim Miller has been submitted three times in the UFC

626
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 3: across his nine hundred and forty five fights or whatever

627
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 3: it is. The last time was Charles Olivera and that's

628
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:18,959
Speaker 3: the only time in the last like ten years. So

629
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,239
Speaker 3: he's not a guy that's easy to submit. But if

630
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 3: you're Chase Hooper and you're putting on a grappling clinic

631
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 3: against this guy, just punch him in the head and

632
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 3: elbow him on the ground. Like we've seen Chase Hooper

633
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 3: really improve that element of his game after he kind

634
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 3: of had those setbacks at one point in his career

635
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 3: when he was just hunting submissions like that stopped working,

636
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 3: and then he started throwing some strikes on the ground.

637
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 3: He's got a couple of ground and pound wins. I

638
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 3: just think that's going to be the more easily available

639
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 3: way to finish this fight. Jim Miller's never going to

640
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 3: be a guy who sticks his neck out there to

641
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 3: get a way out of a fight, Like he'll go down,

642
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 3: you know, go down on his shield. I think that's like, honestly,

643
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 3: probably if I had to pick of the three options,

644
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 3: the likeliest way Hooper wins. I might make knock out

645
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 3: the most likely. At this point, we're getting six to

646
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 3: one odds. There's other ways to play it. I like

647
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 3: what you're saying with the over whatever. I'm not getting greedy.

648
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 3: Hear we got a bet. We both really like it

649
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 3: six to one. Like, I'm just gonna put my quarter

650
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 3: unit on that and call it today.

651
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 2: Absolutely can see Jim Miller winning in round one. Just

652
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 2: to be clear, I think there's huge odds on Miller

653
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 2: in round one hurting Hooper like Steve Garcia did landing

654
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,239
Speaker 2: at guillotine, you know, wrapping up the guillotine and his

655
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 2: Hooper shoots for a takedown. Like there are pass for

656
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 2: Jim Miller. Here is a super dangerous guy. There's a

657
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 2: reason he's had so many fights in the UFC. Do

658
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 2: not disrespect Jim Miller and try to parlay up Chase

659
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 2: Hooper's money line. Please do not do that. Just bet

660
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 2: Hooper by KO instead and then consider him live. If

661
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 2: he loses round one, if he gets hurt in round one,

662
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 2: manages to recover, he's still in there. I like Hooper

663
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 2: to take over Cardio in the second and third rounds.

664
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 2: Move on to my top props. I'm gonna save one

665
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 2: of these three for best bets because I'm also on

666
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 2: one of these fighters money lines. Let's talk about the

667
00:31:56,920 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 2: Gene Silver Brice Metro fight briefly. I know, I know

668
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 2: a lot of people on Bryce Mitchell this week. I

669
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 2: think people see it as a similar dynamic to the

670
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 2: Pat Sabatini versus h who did Sabatini fight last week? Brito, Yeah,

671
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 2: I think people.

672
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 3: That's so weird. I hope people don't see it that way.

673
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 3: I know you're gonna say why, but go on, sorry.

674
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 2: No that But that's That's been the common trope I've

675
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 2: heard this week is like, you know, Bryce Mitchell is Sabatini,

676
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 2: really strong, top pressure, and they viewed Silva as this like,

677
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 2: you know, powerful guy who has been taken down in

678
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 2: the past and al grappled in the past, who's not

679
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 2: one hundred percent focused on what he's doing and barking

680
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 2: at his opponents, et cetera. I think Geene Silva is

681
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 2: a special apple, and after after his first or second

682
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 2: win in the UFC, I said, this is the only

683
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 2: guy who poses a challenge the elite and even with

684
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 2: his current skill set, I don't think it's close. I

685
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 2: don't think it's competitive with the Poia. But in terms

686
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 2: of like the durability, the tenacity, the overall well roundedness

687
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 2: of his skill set, I think Silva is the closest

688
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 2: to Tiporia in terms of being championship caliber level. And

689
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 2: I bet Taporia heavily against Bryce Mitchell. I just think

690
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 2: he's special, and you know, I think Silva's his power

691
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 2: is special. I do not see Bryce Mitchell holding him

692
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 2: down for fifteen minutes without taking damage. Mitchell lands almost

693
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 2: no grounded pound. He's all control oriented. He needs the

694
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 2: back in order to keep control for extended stretches. He's

695
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 2: powerful on top two he can hold guys down, But

696
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 2: in terms of keeping Silva down, I do think he

697
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 2: needs extended back control in order to win this fight

698
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 2: in order to keep it on the ground. If you

699
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 2: like Bryce Mitchell, bet Bryce Mitchell by the decision at

700
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 2: six to one. He's not finishing John Silva, but Silva

701
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 2: inside the distance at minus one o two. I bet

702
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 2: that at ESPN bet same game parlay Gene Silva fight

703
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 2: ten inside the distance minus one oh two. Every other

704
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 2: book was offering that out about minus one twenty ESPN

705
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 2: always a really good book to check on their fighter

706
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 2: to end inside the distance props because you have to

707
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 2: bet them. They're as same game parlays, and oftentimes that

708
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 2: you find myself getting five to ten cents extra on

709
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 2: those props relative to other books. So I always check

710
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 2: out ESPN for the fighter to win inside the distance,

711
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,800
Speaker 2: but Silva wins inside the distance. I made about minus

712
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 2: one fifteen minus one twenty in line of the market,

713
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 2: happy to bet it at minus one oh two, and

714
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 2: then I'll also betting his KO prop. I made that

715
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 2: plus one fifteen would project that, or I saw some

716
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:33,759
Speaker 2: plus one twenty fives out there. I'll have that on

717
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 2: round robin tickets, most likely Billy thoughts on Silva and Mitchell.

718
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 2: I know, I feel like I gave out what is

719
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 2: the very basic take on this fight, but I think

720
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 2: there's like a you know that graft that's like like

721
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 2: idiot takes take the same take, and then the middle

722
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 2: was like the actual dumb take. I think the middle

723
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 2: this week is Bryce Mitchell out wrestling gen Silva. I

724
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 2: think very dumb take, very sharp take Geene Silva knocking

725
00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 2: them out. So what are your thoughts on this fight?

726
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 3: I had not seen anyone make that Pat Sabatini Brito comparison.

727
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:05,840
Speaker 3: So I'm going to beat up that straw man a

728
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 3: little bit here because I'm sure there's a real person

729
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 3: who made it. I'm just saying I heard several people

730
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 3: make it. Yeah, that is that is so bad. You

731
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 3: should feel very sad if you said that, Sean, who

732
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:19,399
Speaker 3: would you like, what would you line? Breedover Silva right now?

733
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 2: Oh, Brito versus Silva.

734
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 3: Jean Silva would definitely be a favorite, right against Joe

735
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 3: Anderson Brido. Yeah right, Okay, that's about what I was

736
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 3: gonna say. If Pat Sabatini and Bryce Mitchell had a

737
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 3: grappling match, I would sell all of my possessions to

738
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 3: bet on Pat Sabatini at like minus five hundred, Like

739
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,760
Speaker 3: I can't. Bryce Mitchell's good, He's got like weird tricky

740
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 3: tenth planet jiu jitsu. Sabatini is a d one wrestler

741
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 3: who's like a legit black belt and is good at

742
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 3: every part of grappling and competes in submission grappling all

743
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,880
Speaker 3: the time. Like, yes, they're both black belts whatever that means,

744
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 3: but they are not the same neighborhood, and Sabatini is

745
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 3: a way better athlete too, Like, look at the two

746
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 3: of them next to each other. I can't believe people

747
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 3: are making that comparison. I'm going to go bet Sylva

748
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,760
Speaker 3: inside the distance at whatever the best I can find,

749
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:13,360
Speaker 3: just because I'm mad about that. So yeah, I'm with

750
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 3: you one hundred percent. Please don't make that comparison out

751
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 3: there if you're listening.

752
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:20,800
Speaker 2: One other prop. I like on this card, really like

753
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 2: on this card quite a bit. Actually, Nikita Krailov by

754
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 2: knockout at plus three forty against Dominic Reyes. I've also

755
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 2: heard some takes this week about a Dominic Reyis resurgence.

756
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 2: I mean, a win over Anthony Smith is absolutely nothing

757
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 2: for me. I bet Rayes to beat Smith by decision.

758
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: That's how little I think of Dominic Rayes. I wasn't

759
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 2: even sure that he would finish Anthony Smith. I thought

760
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 2: there was a good number on him to beat Smith

761
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 2: by decision. Krylov has been off for a couple of years,

762
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:50,959
Speaker 2: so his level coming back is training after coming back

763
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 2: a little bit questionable, But this guy is one of

764
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:56,479
Speaker 2: the most well rounded fighters in the division in terms

765
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,840
Speaker 2: of mixing the strikling. I always say strikling and grappling

766
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 2: to like when I get striking the tapling, I added

767
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:06,879
Speaker 2: striking it's it's just a weird tongue twist here. But no,

768
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:09,439
Speaker 2: I think both of these guys could be a little

769
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:12,040
Speaker 2: bit chinny. They may just you know, slug it out

770
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,279
Speaker 2: in the center of the cage. In that case, I'm

771
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 2: gonna be less less in love with the cry left

772
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 2: ticket at minus one seventy five, so I would want

773
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 2: some ko at about plus three forty on Cryloff. He

774
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 2: could submit dom Reys, but I think it's likelier that

775
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 2: he just lands a power punch and Reyes goes out.

776
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:31,720
Speaker 2: Plus three forty a big number considering Reyes's durability prior

777
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 2: to his last fight, last two fights, I mean going

778
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,839
Speaker 2: into the Dust and Jacoby fight, we thought Rays's chin

779
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 2: was completely shot. So now we're getting big numbers on

780
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 2: fighters to knock him out again. What are your thoughts

781
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,399
Speaker 2: on cry Loob and Reyes. I also parlayed cry Lob up.

782
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 2: I like him as parlay piece up to about minus

783
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 2: twenty five. Any thoughts on this fight from a vetting perspective.

784
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:53,759
Speaker 3: Three will Yeah, I'm not super interested in this one

785
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 3: just because like, I'm very excited about all the little

786
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 3: guy matchups we have, and by little guy, I'm in

787
00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:59,399
Speaker 3: like fifty five and down, so like I haven't paid

788
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 3: much attention. Reyes is weird because he was like elite

789
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 3: for a while and then John Jones took his soul

790
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:07,919
Speaker 3: and then like maybe he's coming back. So I don't

791
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 3: know how I feel about that. I was impressed that

792
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 3: he knocked out Jacoby, Like I wasn't that impressed that

793
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 3: he beat Jacoby, but given the level of striking from Dustin,

794
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 3: that was somewhat impressive. I am staying away. I follow

795
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:20,839
Speaker 3: your logic. It's just there's there's too many factors here

796
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 3: I don't feel like diving into just because I'm the

797
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:24,919
Speaker 3: least excited about that fight.

798
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 2: To move on to our best bets, I've got three

799
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 2: money lines here that I show pretty substantial value on

800
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 2: the one that I showed the biggest ed John and

801
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm going to actually run with

802
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 2: this projection, but based on how I initially projected these out,

803
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 2: Cornwall is one of my bigger money line edges I've shown.

804
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 2: Now I reconfigured my model weight recently. I'm actually much

805
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 2: more confident than I was with the prior version of

806
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 2: you using I would call this like the UFC model

807
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 2: two point zero. Because I've incorporated more data sources, I'm

808
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:58,800
Speaker 2: weighing it in a much more dynamic way. The model

809
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,239
Speaker 2: made Nora Coron about a minus three forty favored here,

810
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 2: compared to moneyline odds of minus one seventy Haley Cohen.

811
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 2: I don't even know what she does well in the cage.

812
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 2: She's a good athlete, but she's extremely raw. Cornol at

813
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 2: least aggressive, going to throw a ton of volume. Maybe

814
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,399
Speaker 2: lost the split she could have won. Cohen got into

815
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,839
Speaker 2: the UFC with a split decision she could have lost.

816
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 2: So I'd imagine both of these fighters were in your

817
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 2: luck rankings this week. Billy, tell me your breakdown on

818
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:29,399
Speaker 2: this fight, your price target on Cornoli, and why we're

819
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:30,720
Speaker 2: aligned on this as the best bet.

820
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 3: Yeah. I just in my head when I was kind

821
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 3: of guessing what moneylines are going to be, I thought

822
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 3: she was gonna be minus three fifty or something. You

823
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 3: kind of summed it up. You were nicer than I'm

824
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 3: about to be. But you said you don't know what

825
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:46,279
Speaker 3: she does well because she doesn't do anything particularly well.

826
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 3: She is strong and athletic, and that will get you

827
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:53,280
Speaker 3: pretty far in like regional women's MMA, when you're fighting

828
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 3: people who like do this part time and are just

829
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,760
Speaker 3: messing around for fun kind of thing. But Nora Cornola

830
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 3: is a legit like elite athlete. I think she was

831
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 3: the world silver medallist in Muay Thai. Her grappling has

832
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 3: looked better in the UFC, like in the last couple

833
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,439
Speaker 3: of fights. She took down Calvicante once in her last

834
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 3: fight in that split decision. She gets taken down sometimes,

835
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 3: but she does a really good job getting back up.

836
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 3: In her UC debut she got taken down five times,

837
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,279
Speaker 3: but let me look it up, five takedowns, Like a

838
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:25,240
Speaker 3: little over a minute of ground control time per takedown.

839
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 3: We can deal with that. And Cohen's not good at wrestling.

840
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 3: She's just strong. I don't know that she's stronger than Cornoll.

841
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 3: Cornol also missed wait for the second time in her

842
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 3: three UFC fights, which isn't great, But like, are you

843
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 3: going to be bigger and stronger because you weighed a

844
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:43,399
Speaker 3: couple extra pounds heavier? Probably we got that going for Yeah,

845
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 3: I could not believe this line was what it was,

846
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 3: I would have better at minus two fifty. People who

847
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 3: follow our baseball content know we like to joke about

848
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 3: the Patrick Corbin fade and how we'd all be millionaires

849
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:56,359
Speaker 3: if Patrick Corbyn, you know, just stayed active all the time.

850
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 3: That's how I feel about Haley Cohen. She's had four

851
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 3: UF fights canceled, and this will be her second that

852
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:03,959
Speaker 3: actually happens if we make it all the way there.

853
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 3: I have tried to bet against her and every one

854
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:07,759
Speaker 3: of those fights as soon as the line comes out,

855
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,359
Speaker 3: like I'd be living on a private island somewhere if

856
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:13,319
Speaker 3: she actually made the walk every time. So at the

857
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 3: risk of being over confident in a low level when

858
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 3: in time I may fight, I am very enthusiastic about

859
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 3: this time.

860
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:22,680
Speaker 2: One of my other two best bets going to the

861
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 2: women's Stralway division Verno Gianderoba about minus one forty five

862
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 2: against jan Jannan. I like the grappler here Janderoba. I

863
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:34,359
Speaker 2: projected her money line closer to minus two hundred. I'm

864
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 2: also a little bit interested in her submission prop. I

865
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:39,919
Speaker 2: projected value on her decision prop. But if she gets

866
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 2: the positions that she should against Yan shann On, I

867
00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:45,919
Speaker 2: think she has a good chance of finishing the fight.

868
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 2: I think she might be the best pure grappler in

869
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:52,240
Speaker 2: the Strawey division. Thinking backs to her fight against Mackenzie Dern,

870
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 2: she wins that fight if she doesn't get up and

871
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 2: let Deran stand back up in the final minute. I

872
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,800
Speaker 2: bet on Janderobo in that fight. She just top position

873
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 2: for the final minute. She wins that fight. So you know,

874
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:06,799
Speaker 2: looking back at her career, I think she could have

875
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:10,360
Speaker 2: had a different trajectory, closer to a championship caliber trajectory.

876
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 2: If she wins that fight, has a different progression going forward.

877
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 2: But yeah, her grappling super lead Jan Chinnahan's shown major weaknesses.

878
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 2: When she gets put on her back, she's the much

879
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 2: better striker. It's a pretty binary fight. Could see this

880
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,720
Speaker 2: one ending by finish, but of the two, I prefer

881
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 2: Jandero but to win by submission again. Projector money line

882
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 2: closer to minus two hundred. Happy to lay that here.

883
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:33,320
Speaker 2: We'll see if I end up adding any prop angles

884
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:36,319
Speaker 2: to this fight. Billy Janderoba against Yan Shannan. Any bets

885
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 2: here for you?

886
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:40,280
Speaker 3: One hundred percent agree with you. The line is continuing

887
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 3: to come down on Janderobo like since I think even

888
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 3: we started recording this, it's now minus one forty two,

889
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 3: so I will probably be joining you. I'm waiting. Sometimes

890
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 3: you talk about like the late Asian market money that

891
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:53,880
Speaker 3: pushes the line a little bit at weird times. I

892
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:56,400
Speaker 3: think we're probably going to see that or continue to

893
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:59,280
Speaker 3: see that with the AHN on so one hundred percent lockstep,

894
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 3: but I just think we can wait a little bit.

895
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 2: Verna also getting to fight Miami a little bit closer

896
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:06,239
Speaker 2: to home. Yon having to fly across the world to

897
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 2: come down to Miami for the fight, so body clock

898
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:11,399
Speaker 2: things like got also helping Jander Robe here final best

899
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 2: bet for me, Mikyle Olek saychuck about minus two hundred,

900
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 2: Oh boy, I mean I love my keyo lang Lake

901
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 2: minus two hundred on him is is a little weird.

902
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 2: I like better money, But like Haley Cohen Billy, what

903
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 2: does the dregs MASTI wall at fighting.

904
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 3: Paul he doesn't pretty well. Yeah, I don't even think

905
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 3: he's actually that athletic, Like he's he's wild, which gives

906
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 3: the impression of athletic, but I don't know that he's

907
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 3: like a particularly elite athlete by UFC standard. So go

908
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 3: on though I see where you're going with this, and

909
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 3: I like it.

910
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:48,279
Speaker 2: Do you know who Mikael ok State Truck has been

911
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:53,200
Speaker 2: training with for the past couple of months. I who's

912
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:54,839
Speaker 2: Ohio and Team Fighting Nerds.

913
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 3: Mm hmm, indeed that's indeed, Billy.

914
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 2: If you like, even the slightest bit of grappling to

915
00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 2: mccollows Truck's game, a little bit of defensive grappling teach

916
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:09,280
Speaker 2: him to be a little bit calmer. So my biggest

917
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 2: takeaway here is he he claimed he has excellent cardio

918
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 2: coming into this fight, career best cardio. So I don't

919
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:16,880
Speaker 2: know if they put him on some vitamins, on some

920
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:21,720
Speaker 2: suplemints down at Team Team Fighting Nerds, but it seems

921
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:24,839
Speaker 2: like physically McCall is feeling really good coming into this fight,

922
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 2: really trusting his cardio. A guy who typically finishes people

923
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 2: in round one or hurts them in round one and

924
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 2: then fades the longer his fights go. I don't think

925
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:37,240
Speaker 2: Dumas is particularly good cardio either. He is longer, McCall

926
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 2: gonna have to navigate the reach Dumas could try to

927
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 2: grapple him. Dumas has out grappled opponents in the past.

928
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:46,640
Speaker 2: That said, I think McCall, if he's up the defensive

929
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 2: grappling at all trending with fighting nerds in general taking

930
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:51,840
Speaker 2: a big step down in competition here, I think he

931
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 2: finishes Tdrikas Dumas. I like the under I like the

932
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:56,440
Speaker 2: fight to end inside this stance. I like Olex s

933
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:58,840
Speaker 2: truck on the money line, and I like Olex s

934
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 2: chuck inside the distance. One we're by knockout at plus

935
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:07,320
Speaker 2: one fifty Billy thoughts on Olex stay chuck against Dumas,

936
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:09,759
Speaker 2: and then any other thoughts you have on this card

937
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 2: before we get it out of here.

938
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have so many bets and I haven't quite

939
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 3: got to that one yet, but I one hundred percent

940
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 3: to agree it's you're right. It's similar to the Cornolla fight,

941
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:22,279
Speaker 3: where we have like a more technical striker fighting like

942
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 3: the quote unquote athlete who's not especially that good at

943
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:27,839
Speaker 3: any part of fighting. So that makes total sense. I'd

944
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 3: probably go inside the distance with me Kall, just because

945
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 3: I don't see either of these guys doing a lot

946
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 3: of fifteen minute fights kind of ever. So there's that.

947
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 3: I think of what we missed, I don't think we

948
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 3: talked about, uh, the damage Elkins I don't really have

949
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 3: a strong take on that one.

950
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 2: Decision there like slight over goes the decision, but I mean,

951
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:51,319
Speaker 2: Darren could take one punch of die Rose is not

952
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,439
Speaker 2: super durable either. Do you have any thoughts on that fight?

953
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 3: Not really the other one, Like I'm actually tempted to

954
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 3: lay the heavy juice on Marc O'tulio because I did

955
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:03,840
Speaker 3: trade Gores. Only UFC wins are just getting people with

956
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 3: this dumb guillotine and Tulio has to know at this

957
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:08,919
Speaker 3: point right like he's done it twice, like just don't

958
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:11,400
Speaker 3: stick your head in there and get guillotine. And Trehon

959
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:14,279
Speaker 3: Gordon got knocked out by Cody Brundage, who's like the

960
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 3: epitome of good at wrestling than nothing else. So like

961
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:21,240
Speaker 3: that's a bad look. So maybe Tulio knockout Tulio finish

962
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 3: something like that. Those are all pretty juicy, But that's

963
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 3: one of those if, like, you know, I win that

964
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:28,799
Speaker 3: Cornoll fight and this one comes right after, maybe you

965
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 3: just roll those winnings into a Tulio knockout or something

966
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 3: like that. So that's my other thought. That one is

967
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:38,440
Speaker 3: the line that I thought we would have on Cornole

968
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:41,520
Speaker 3: or Mikal, but we're actually getting it on Marco Tulio,

969
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 3: so it's not as great of a value, but I

970
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:45,080
Speaker 3: think there's an angle there. Yeah.

971
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 2: I made Tuleo minus four hundred. I parlayed them up

972
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 2: with Crylov. I think you could parlay them up with

973
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 2: Cornol or Micau, you know somebody one of the other

974
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:54,760
Speaker 2: favorites I mentioned. I think you can bund those too together,

975
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 2: get them over even money. But also Tulio by Knockout.

976
00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:00,759
Speaker 2: I made about minus one ten and I saw some

977
00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 2: plus one fifteens out there, so you can play Tulio

978
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 2: by Ko straight up. I'll probably include Tulio by Ko

979
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:08,719
Speaker 2: on my round robin tickets along with the say Check

980
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 2: by a Ko, Jean Silva by Ko, maybe Volkanovski round four,

981
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 2: I don't know. We'll mix in some longer shot props there.

982
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:18,960
Speaker 2: That'll do it for a USC betting preview. You can

983
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:21,960
Speaker 2: find more USC betting content from both Billy and myself

984
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 2: on actionetwork dot com. You can find all of our

985
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:25,480
Speaker 2: bets in the Action Network gap, but if you'd like

986
00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 2: to instantly tail some of the bets that we discussed

987
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,800
Speaker 2: on today's episode, make sure to look for the quicklip

988
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,919
Speaker 2: links both in the podcast and the video description. Don't

989
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:34,919
Speaker 2: forget to sign up. Don't forget to download the free

990
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 2: award winning Action Nework Gap and sign up for Action

991
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 2: Pro for immediate access to expert picks and analysis basketball

992
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 2: with all your bets this weekend. Thank you for tuning in,

993
00:47:43,360 --> 00:47:45,279
Speaker 2: enjoy the violence. To see you next week. I will

994
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:46,840
Speaker 2: see in two weeks. No card next week.

995
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

996
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:59,320
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997
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998
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:03,040
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