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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast that action.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go from test throwing out so spect we're

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Speaker 3: saying it's a cash toto. That's all we see. Most

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Speaker 3: gamble is when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, This is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 2: If you want to be And we are underway. Welcome

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Speaker 2: to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I am

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Speaker 2: your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined as always

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Speaker 2: by Brandon Anderson for some best bets for NFL Week five.

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Speaker 2: We will get to those bets shortly, as always again,

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Speaker 2: but first we've got some fun trends, some talking points,

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Speaker 2: and then we will get Brandon's opinion on those. But

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Speaker 2: I think we kind of have to start here. So

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Speaker 2: big favorites six points or more sixteen two and one

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Speaker 2: straight up so far this season. That is the fewest

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Speaker 2: outright losses for six plus point favorites since nineteen seventy nine.

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Speaker 2: That was a fun manual lookup by myself. I think

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Speaker 2: the thing that's interesting of those games only ten and

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Speaker 2: nine against the spread, so margins are tight, and that

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Speaker 2: becomes a theme in a second. But before we get

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Speaker 2: back to that. I feel like the other storyline, and

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Speaker 2: in terms of gambling, at least you know the public

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Speaker 2: talking about it. The Lions and the Titans feel like

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Speaker 2: they become storylines. On Detroit side fourteen five and one,

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Speaker 2: ATS last twenty twenty one, seven and one, ATS last

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Speaker 2: twenty nine, thirty eight, thirteen and one, last fifty two,

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Speaker 2: so cover machines. And then on Tennessee's side, the complete

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Speaker 2: opposite two in fifteen, ATS three and eighteen six, twenty

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Speaker 2: four and one, eight, twenty seven and one. You guys

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Speaker 2: understand wherever this is going. It just feels like every

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Speaker 2: single week it's an inevitable. So we will see if

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Speaker 2: this becomes the same this week, because those spreads are

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Speaker 2: a little inflated, I think it becomes a good storyline.

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Speaker 2: And then finally, what I think is probably the most

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Speaker 2: interesting for trying to handicap this week, the total is

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Speaker 2: just basically a betting balance, So the totals market has

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Speaker 2: been a bit different than what we talked about earlier.

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Speaker 2: Through sixty four games, thirty two overs and thirty two

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Speaker 2: unders always fun exactly five hundred and then this one

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Speaker 2: I think is more interesting. We're entering week five, we

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Speaker 2: have no undefeated ATS teams and no defeated ATS teams,

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Speaker 2: a balance through four weeks. This is only the third

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Speaker 2: time since nineteen ninety we haven't had a four to

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Speaker 2: oh ATS or an zero to four ATS twenty ten,

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Speaker 2: two thousand and five. Brandon hit on any of those.

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Speaker 3: You would like, Yeah, a lot of parodies so far.

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Speaker 3: It feels it too. It's been hard to get a

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Speaker 3: read on a lot of these teams. Yeah, you mentioned

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Speaker 3: Detroit and Tennessee. We'll come back to those games. I

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Speaker 3: wanted to bet against Detroit this week. It's such a

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Speaker 3: Cincinnati bounce back by low type spot. It's just really

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Speaker 3: hard to bet against the lines right now. And I

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Speaker 3: think it is a an obvious Bilo spot on the Titans,

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Speaker 3: except it's been a Bilo spot for like an entire

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Speaker 3: calendar year now, and so I can't bring myself to

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Speaker 3: bet on the Titans either. So I kind of have

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Speaker 3: a way to sort of do those things without having

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Speaker 3: to take the spread on either of those. And I

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Speaker 3: am going to nibble one of those long six plus

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Speaker 3: underdogs this week on the money line. See if we

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Speaker 3: can kind of thread the needle and grab one of

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Speaker 3: those big underdogs, and you know, if parody reigns and

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Speaker 3: if expect the unexpected is happening, then we shouldn't be

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Speaker 3: getting these huge favorites that keep winning out right every

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Speaker 3: week too. We should get some underdogs breaking through. Sixteen

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Speaker 3: to two and one straight up sounds pretty good, but

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Speaker 3: it's like one or two results away from suddenly flipping

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Speaker 3: the ROI on the money line because you're making so

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Speaker 3: much when you get it. So, yeah, it's early. These

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Speaker 3: trends are interesting, and it's always like, okay, so do

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Speaker 3: we follow them and is that what's happening? Or do

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Speaker 3: you fade and expect some regression And there's not an answer.

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Speaker 3: You kind of have to do both sides and just

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Speaker 3: do your best with that.

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Speaker 2: At least initially, sixteen to two and one, but ten

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Speaker 2: to nine ats feels like it tells a nice little story. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: but before we move on, don't forget to sign up

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Speaker 2: for Action Pro for real time pick alerts from experts

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Speaker 2: like Brandon Anderson, myself, our entire Action Network team. Plus

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Speaker 2: you can access our pro projections powered by Sean Kerner

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Speaker 2: and our predictive analytics team. Just go to actionwork dot

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Speaker 2: main course. Let's get to some week five best bets.

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Speaker 2: You wanta tail some of these bets. Look for the

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Speaker 2: quick slip link in the podcast and video description or

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Speaker 2: this is my favorite go to actionowork dot com. Slash

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Speaker 2: bet now has all of the bets listed there. Just

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Speaker 2: click beautiful quick slip amazing, this is your best bet.

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Speaker 2: We will start. Last week was Dublin. Now it's London.

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Speaker 2: We will start in London, Vikings Brouns. I just this

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Speaker 2: total just keeps on dropping. Last time I looked at

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Speaker 2: it was thirty five and a half. The look ahead

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Speaker 2: for anyone understanding was forty one and a half before

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Speaker 2: we even got to this week of matchup. So, Brandon

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Speaker 2: falling Knife, what are you doing?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's the limbo? How low can you go? And

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Speaker 3: I don't think he can go low enough. I want

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Speaker 3: the under at DraftKings. Right now, we can get an

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Speaker 3: under thirty six and a half, So grab that if

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Speaker 3: you can. If it needs to be a thirty six

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Speaker 3: thirty five and a half, just shop around and get

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Speaker 3: your best number you can. This was the hot read.

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Speaker 3: We took the under thirty seven and a half. Thirty

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Speaker 3: seven is kind of the last key number going down.

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Speaker 3: But this game, this could be like nine to six

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Speaker 3: on Sunday as the final score, and I don't think

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Speaker 3: anyone would even a flinch, like we we know what's

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Speaker 3: coming in this game. Everyone knows the defenses are way better.

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Speaker 3: And why I'm bringing back this peck even though it

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Speaker 3: was the hot read, is because I'm gonna add to it.

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Speaker 3: It's Mine Chefs season. We're gonna go way down under

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Speaker 3: in London, but maybe down under like Australian style here.

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Speaker 3: So to recap the angle in case you don't know,

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Speaker 3: the defenses are the story.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 3: Brown's defense second in DVAA second against the run, they

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Speaker 3: shut down. Joe Burrow went healthy, Lamar Jackson went healthy. Man,

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Speaker 3: it's been a month. Jordan Love Vikings offensive line not healthy.

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Speaker 3: Brian O'Neill, Ryan Kelly, don and Jackson probably all out

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Speaker 3: three starters. Christian Darrisaw's back but hasn't been that great yet.

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Speaker 3: He's still kind of getting back healthy. They have allowed

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Speaker 3: at least three sacks in five straight games, twenty seven

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Speaker 3: sacks in that stretch, and my guy Carson Wentz just

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Speaker 3: doesn't have an internal clock. It's not happening. And now

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Speaker 3: it's Miles Garrett and Malik Collins and all those guys

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Speaker 3: up front. I don't see that going well for Minnesota offensively.

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Speaker 3: On the flip side, you get the Brian Flores defense,

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Speaker 3: number one pass defense. Hey, I know what if we

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Speaker 3: debut a rookie quarterback in London against the league's best

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Speaker 3: pass defense and all that pressure and all that blitzing.

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Speaker 3: Cleveland is missing both tackles. Browns are dead last in

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Speaker 3: success rate on the season despite having the second easiest

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Speaker 3: strength to schedule defensively so far, so they're not even

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Speaker 3: facing tough opponents, and they still can't score eighteen or

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Speaker 3: less now in seventeen consecutive non Jamus games. So I've

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Speaker 3: kind of leaned Vikings here. It's a great travel spot

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Speaker 3: for the Vikings already overseas, it's Gabriel debut, Brian Flores.

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Speaker 3: You had this in your article. I think since since

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Speaker 3: twenty nineteen when he became a head coach against rookie

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks nine to one, straight up six two and two ats,

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Speaker 3: but importantly sixteen points a game allowed EPA per a

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Speaker 3: dropback minus point sixteen. So I don't think the Browns

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Speaker 3: score here, But three and a half feels like a

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Speaker 3: lot when the total is this low. And I don't

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Speaker 3: even know if you can kick a fuel goal, you

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Speaker 3: could win three to nothing in this game for all

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Speaker 3: I know. So typically low international totals, I probably want

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Speaker 3: the over totals blow forty two internationally are nine to

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Speaker 3: three to the over last week that hit here. However,

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Speaker 3: as you point out, this is the lowest total we've

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Speaker 3: ever seen internationally. It's so low, I just don't think

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Speaker 3: it fits into the trends we've seen overseas. I think

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Speaker 3: it goes to an entirely other category. So some trends

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Speaker 3: on the under here thirteen mild arrowins expected win they

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Speaker 3: unders last four seasons sixty two percent outdoor totals thirty

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Speaker 3: eight or below that dropped at least or dropped over

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Speaker 3: four points. You mention how far this one's gone down

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Speaker 3: fifty nine percent to the under since twenty twelve, totals

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Speaker 3: below thirty six, looks like we'll get there sixteen and

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Speaker 3: five to the under seventy six percent. So that's the under.

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Speaker 3: Now here's the mind shaft, and we are getting ugly here.

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Speaker 3: Since November twenty nineteen, totals at thirty seven or below

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Speaker 3: forty twenty and one to the under. That's two thirds

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Speaker 3: hit rate out of those games, or sixty one games.

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Speaker 3: Over half of those games finished at thirty year below.

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Speaker 3: So we're going under thirty and a half plus one ninety,

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Speaker 3: we're going under twenty seven and a half plus two

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Speaker 3: to ninety. That one's hit forty three percent of the time,

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Speaker 3: still almost half of them, and we're implied more like

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Speaker 3: a quarter of the time, and all the way down

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Speaker 3: under twenty three year below under twenty three point five

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Speaker 3: obviously plus five twenty we're even that low in these games,

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Speaker 3: about a quarter of the time. And if you really

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Speaker 3: want to get wild, as I really got messy in

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Speaker 3: all these sixty one games with the low totals. We

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Speaker 3: know about key numbers, right, like we know forty to

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Speaker 3: forty four, we know thirty seven, okay, but the key

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Speaker 3: numbers have to be different because the totals so ugly. Here,

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Speaker 3: what I noticed is that eighteen percent of the games

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Speaker 3: in this range with a low total finished at twenty five,

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Speaker 3: twenty six, twenty seven, twenty six, twenty five, twenty seven,

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Speaker 3: twenty six, Like right in that range, so really ugly

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Speaker 3: and gross over twenty four and a half, but under

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Speaker 3: twenty seven and a half, we're shooting for right through

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Speaker 3: the middle, getting a twenty five to twenty seven total

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Speaker 3: at plus nine hundred. Luck if if we get to

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Speaker 3: watch garbage Sunday morning football, we may as well have

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Speaker 3: some fun with it. Take the mind shaft all the

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Speaker 3: way down and let's hope nothing happens.

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Speaker 2: I guess my only question on the mind on that parlay,

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Speaker 2: what's the price on twenty three and a half? Like

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Speaker 2: how much does it cut it? Because I feel like

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Speaker 2: twenty four is relatively key when you get that low,

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Speaker 2: but regardless, it's the grossest thing I've ever heard.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, twenty four makes sense just because like

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Speaker 3: twenty four, twenty four, nothing, fourteen to ten, Like, it's

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Speaker 3: clear how we get there. Then the math, not the math,

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Speaker 3: but the numbers from the data is that these teams

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Speaker 3: aren't doing normal fourteen to ten things like they're going

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Speaker 3: for two, they're kicking seventeen field goals, you know whatever,

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Speaker 3: things like that. So I can't tell you realistically that

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Speaker 3: playing a twenty five twenty seven outcome is like a

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Speaker 3: great bet you should often make. But in this case,

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Speaker 3: it's implied a ten percent and it's been eighteen percent

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Speaker 3: of those totals. So I'm just surely just playing a

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Speaker 3: goofy bet off the number and hope we get kind

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Speaker 3: of a long nine to one hit.

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Speaker 2: I haven't looked at the odds, but rei shirt over

217
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Speaker 2: one and a half field goals from Minnesota feels like

218
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Speaker 2: free money at this point. With the tackles and they're

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Speaker 2: gonna get down there and they're gonna get stifled by

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Speaker 2: the other side of defense in Cleveland side. So eight

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Speaker 2: three and one to the under for the Browns this year,

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Speaker 2: thirteen and eight last two years, third best in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: and to me, the biggest thing Cleveland third and rush

224
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Speaker 2: success rate. Keep it close, put Wentz down and keep

225
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Speaker 2: them in the game, and you should be able to

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Speaker 2: hit this bet pretty easily. All right, let's keep rolling here.

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Speaker 2: So you've got the ex Panther Quarterback Bowl Seattle and

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay. Hopefully Baker plays. What are you doing there?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is my favorite side of the week. I'm

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Speaker 3: going to the Seahawks minus three if you can. I

231
00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:12,640
Speaker 3: still see one out there. But honestly, just get the

232
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Speaker 3: best number you can here. We'll take an al tier

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Speaker 3: as well. So this was two and a half Sunday night.

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Speaker 3: I looked at it as the hot read for us. Honestly,

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Speaker 3: I'm just gonna wait and grab it now. And then

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Speaker 3: the line moved up. And why it's moving is a

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Speaker 3: bummer because we lose the three, but it's because there's

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Speaker 3: just a glut of Tampa Bay injuries. Mike Evans is out,

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Speaker 3: Chris Goblin's playing but still ramping up on the line,

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Speaker 3: Cody Mauk and Luke Gettik here out the whole right side.

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Speaker 3: Wurf's is playing, but he's still ramping up. The corners

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Speaker 3: and safeties are a little bit banged up. So you

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Speaker 3: got cluster injuries, a receiver line, and in the secondary

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Speaker 3: like the three places where they hurt the most. Backy

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Speaker 3: Irving might not play now in this one. Baker's probably

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Speaker 3: gonna play, but he's got a knee and a bicep

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Speaker 3: injury on the injury report. Seattle, on the other hand,

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Speaker 3: they got extra rush. They played Thursday a week ago,

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Speaker 3: so they have extra time to get healthy and get right,

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Speaker 3: while the Bucks are just banged up all over the place.

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Speaker 3: And I just love the spot anyways, before all the injuries,

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Speaker 3: I think Sales clearly the better defense they've been so far,

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Speaker 3: the better offense. They're the way healthier team. I like

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Speaker 3: the coaching better. Seattle number one DVA defense, top three

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Speaker 3: against the run and the pass. So far, Bucks line

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Speaker 3: banged up, they can't run the ball right now. Probably

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Speaker 3: know Bucky Irving. I think Seattle defense is a great

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Speaker 3: matchup for them. And then offensively, we know the Bucks

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Speaker 3: are great stopping the run, they've been beatable against the pass,

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Speaker 3: and again they've got not great pass rush right now.

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Speaker 3: Injuries in the secondary and you mentioned you know the

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Speaker 3: old Carolina quarterbacks here, Sam Donald's been balling. Man. Sam

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Speaker 3: Donald has been awesome so far Seattle, if you can

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Speaker 3: believe it, a second in DVA passing right now, and

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Speaker 3: Donald is near the top of the league and a

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Speaker 3: lot of other metrics as well. And on top of

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Speaker 3: all that we forget, but this is the biggest special

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Speaker 3: teams gap that you can get between two teams. Seattle

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Speaker 3: is number one special teams so far with the bullet

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00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:11,679
Speaker 3: they are crushing on special teams and the frequently do

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Speaker 3: year after year. The Bucks are quite possibly the worst

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Speaker 3: we saw last week. They lost the game because of

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Speaker 3: block punch right out of the gates. And we've seen

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Speaker 3: Tampa Bay get hurt by special teams year after year.

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Speaker 3: Just not an area that they have put a lot

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Speaker 3: of attention to. So I think people are sleeping on Seattle.

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Speaker 3: Sleep listen Seattle. I don't know what I'm doing there.

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Speaker 3: They're my number six power rated team. I make this

279
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Speaker 3: actually closer to double digits. That's how far off I

280
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Speaker 3: am from the line. Baker Mayfield historically not great against

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Speaker 3: teams over five hundred and thirty two percent cover rate ats.

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Speaker 3: So I grabbed Seattle minus three earlier in the week.

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Speaker 3: If you saw it on the app and tailed hopefully

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Speaker 3: there the three out there three and a half if

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Speaker 3: you need it. We lose the key number, but I

286
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Speaker 3: can't be too upset about that. Mike McDonald and Seattle

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00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:58,880
Speaker 3: six of thirteen wins, almost half of them have been

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Speaker 3: by double digits. Average margin of victory ten and a

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Speaker 3: half points. So I'll play Seattle, but also play a

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Speaker 3: Seattle minus nine and a half plus two to fifteen.

291
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Speaker 3: See if we get that double digit win in a

292
00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,560
Speaker 3: matchup that just looks like one where if the Bucks

293
00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:15,360
Speaker 3: do get behind, maybe they just try to get healthy

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Speaker 3: a little bit and get out of here. And then

295
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Speaker 3: I think if you like futures angles also, I mentioned

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Speaker 3: this and I call them this week Seattle, Washington, and

297
00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,560
Speaker 3: Denver are the three kind of coin flippiest playoff bets

298
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Speaker 3: make or miss right now. I don't think Seattle should

299
00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:32,880
Speaker 3: be in that group, and this game in particular is

300
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Speaker 3: a big part of it. This is the second highest

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Speaker 3: leverage game this week from PFF. If Seattle loses, they

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Speaker 3: have cl thirty nine percent to make the playoffs, but

303
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Speaker 3: with the win sixty six percent. So if I like

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Speaker 3: Seattle here to win, then I should like them a

305
00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:48,760
Speaker 3: lot in the playoffs. Two four to one in the NFC,

306
00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:51,640
Speaker 3: you're in pretty good shape and it's near even odds

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Speaker 3: minus one fifteen, So I like the Seattle escalator there too.

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Speaker 3: If you will a futures escalator to invest into the

309
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Speaker 3: future get this when and even if they didn't, somehow

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Speaker 3: we still have a lot of chances to get there.

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Speaker 3: So love the Seahawks rocking the Seahawks shirt today. Our

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00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,120
Speaker 3: islands haven't gone great this year, but I guess let's

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Speaker 3: go back to Seattle Island for the week and see

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Speaker 3: how that goes.

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Speaker 2: I mean to be honest with you, I like most

316
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Speaker 2: of the angles with Seattle here. I think the biggest

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Speaker 2: thing is the cluster injuries. I think they're big on

318
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Speaker 2: both sides, but I think on Tampa side it is

319
00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:25,120
Speaker 2: a long long list. The trend that they're going to

320
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,520
Speaker 2: have to buck on the road Seattle nine and one

321
00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,440
Speaker 2: straight up sixty three and one ats under McDonald. They're

322
00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,600
Speaker 2: only four and seven straight up three and eight ats

323
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Speaker 2: at home in Seattle, so they've had a tough time

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Speaker 2: kind of looking like themselves at home lately. Here's the

325
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Speaker 2: one I kind of like though. So there is a trend,

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Speaker 2: at least recently last decade, teams going est to PST

327
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Speaker 2: playing on the road, which is Tampa Bay this week

328
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Speaker 2: eighty nine and sixty three to fifty nine percent, but

329
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Speaker 2: in Seattle only team not profitable in that spot. Twelve

330
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Speaker 2: sixteen and one every other location sixty two percent. So

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Speaker 2: this trip to Seattle, especially Tampa Bay. Seattle's on the

332
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Speaker 2: longer rest, feels like the right spot to me, especially

333
00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:10,359
Speaker 2: with the injury, which probably trump everything I just talked about.

334
00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,240
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep rolling here. So you've got a

335
00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:16,399
Speaker 2: teaser kind of headed to Teaserland doesn't like to call

336
00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:20,400
Speaker 2: it Tennessee Arizona and Raiders and Colts. What are you doing?

337
00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:22,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm gonna go Cardinals and Colts. Give me

338
00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:25,200
Speaker 3: the favorites here at seven and a half for the

339
00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,199
Speaker 3: Cardinals teas down to one and a half and Colts

340
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,280
Speaker 3: at seven teas down to one. Just kind of looking

341
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,560
Speaker 3: for classic Stanford long teaser here. So you want home

342
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:36,400
Speaker 3: teams seven and a half to eight and a half,

343
00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,200
Speaker 3: you want to tease those down, or road teams one

344
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:40,879
Speaker 3: and a half for two and a half underdogs you

345
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:42,760
Speaker 3: want to tease up. The point is the same on

346
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:46,040
Speaker 3: those you want to cross off key numbers. So that's

347
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,639
Speaker 3: what I think we're trying to do here. Lately seven

348
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,119
Speaker 3: is bleeding down to five and six, three down to

349
00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:54,000
Speaker 3: one and two, so I know we're not quite at

350
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 3: that seven and a half for Colts. But I think

351
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:58,399
Speaker 3: we're crossing off a lot of key numbers here. If

352
00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:00,960
Speaker 3: you can't do a teaser at your book, just a

353
00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:03,560
Speaker 3: moneyline parlay will probably get you a pretty similar price

354
00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:05,719
Speaker 3: at this point. So why do I like the home

355
00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:09,600
Speaker 3: favorites Cardinals similar to Seattle, who we just talked about.

356
00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,359
Speaker 3: This is the other team that played Thursday nights. They

357
00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,040
Speaker 3: get the extended arrest. It's just a good bounce back

358
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,440
Speaker 3: spot for Arizona. The Titans are terrible. We talked about

359
00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:20,000
Speaker 3: them right off the top. They're dead last in DVA.

360
00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:24,000
Speaker 3: They're bottom seven running and passing offense and defense. They're

361
00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,600
Speaker 3: three in a bajillion against the spread in the last

362
00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:31,080
Speaker 3: whatever time. The Cardinals are not good, but they're not terrible.

363
00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,240
Speaker 3: They're not the Titans. They're fine, And I think fine

364
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,520
Speaker 3: is good enough with extra rest against just a terrible

365
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:41,640
Speaker 3: Titans team. That why haven't we fired Brian Callahan yet? Colts?

366
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:43,840
Speaker 3: The Colts offense is bawling. That's been one of the

367
00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,880
Speaker 3: stories of this season. Top three in EPA per play

368
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:51,439
Speaker 3: success rate, dropback success rate, top two in series conversion rate.

369
00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:54,040
Speaker 3: Seventy seven percent of their series are turning into another

370
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:58,600
Speaker 3: first down, only behind Buffalo just moving the chains, keeping

371
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 3: things moving, and the Raiders defense has been a little

372
00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:05,000
Speaker 3: better than expected, but on paper, still bottom three talent

373
00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,760
Speaker 3: coming the season, especially in the secondary, and I think

374
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 3: it's fair to expect Daniel Jones and this offense to

375
00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 3: regress later in the season. But so far they've scored

376
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:17,080
Speaker 3: thirty three, twenty nine, and then twenty last week. But

377
00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 3: remember they fumbled a touchdown literally just untouched out the

378
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 3: end zone at a d Mitchell like. They're basically at

379
00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:25,160
Speaker 3: twenty seven and up. I looked at just the Colts

380
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,960
Speaker 3: team total here too. If you want just a solo play,

381
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,119
Speaker 3: I think it's fair to expect the Colts to come

382
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 3: down a little bit, but we saw them blow out

383
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,920
Speaker 3: Miami and Tennessee. This is kind of the range that

384
00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 3: the Raiders are playing in right now. I think this

385
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,840
Speaker 3: just sets up as another one of those games. So Cardinals,

386
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:45,360
Speaker 3: Colts just teasing them down, just get the win. Basically,

387
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,720
Speaker 3: if you are in a survivor league, these are the

388
00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:51,440
Speaker 3: two teams I'd be looking at here as well. So yeah,

389
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,879
Speaker 3: Cardinals Colts teaser basically down to money line parlay.

390
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:57,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I saw Titans here and I had to make

391
00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,359
Speaker 2: the assumption you weren't moving it up to fourteen and

392
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:01,680
Speaker 2: a half. That wasn't the bet we were going to

393
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:05,440
Speaker 2: make here. All right, let's keep rolling, So one more

394
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 2: before we get to the lightning round. Texans and the Ravens.

395
00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 2: Obviously no Lamar Jackson Cooper Rush in the lineup. I'll

396
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 2: say this just off the bat. Since it started last season,

397
00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 2: over is eighteen and five in Ravens games, best in

398
00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 2: the NFL. But that's Lamar Jackson on the other side.

399
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 2: Texans sixteen and seven to the Underson to start the

400
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 2: last season, best mark in the NFL. To me, that's

401
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 2: least more what you're getting in this game with Houston.

402
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 2: They've got their full you know, kind of army of players.

403
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:35,239
Speaker 2: So what are you doing here?

404
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going under. No surprises here, I'm going under

405
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 3: and we're taking the mind shafts. So Texans Ravens just

406
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 3: we're not gonna see a lot of points. This is ugly.

407
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 3: This is should have been maybe the game of the

408
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 3: week for a week five a month ago, and now

409
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:53,320
Speaker 3: it's just like can anybody survive? Like Houston a week

410
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 3: ago was ohe to three and left for dead. Their

411
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,639
Speaker 3: road of favorites in that, Like, that's how ugly this

412
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 3: has gotten for both of these teams. It's kind of

413
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,920
Speaker 3: like you know, in the wrestling terms, like loser goes home.

414
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 3: One of these teams drops to one and four and

415
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,560
Speaker 3: it's just like on life support after this. So I

416
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 3: grab this under early in the week. Be sure to

417
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 3: follow on the app if you've got it earlier. Saw

418
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 3: some app there was a forty five. Still on Monday

419
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 3: there are forty three and forty fours. And of course

420
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,360
Speaker 3: all the Baltimore injury news came out, not just Lamar Jackson,

421
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,679
Speaker 3: but like literally all Like I can't even list off

422
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 3: all the Ravens names. It'd be better off just listening

423
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 3: to healthy guys, like there's nobody left anymore. Of course,

424
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,720
Speaker 3: Lamar is the big one, and as of taping Thursday,

425
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 3: there's like some murmurings, Oh well, maybe Lamar is day

426
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 3: to day and not week to week. Maybe he'll play

427
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 3: this week. Guess what. The books have not moved anything,

428
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:46,360
Speaker 3: the total, the spread, They did not change off of those,

429
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,359
Speaker 3: so I'm not really too worried there. Total has dropped

430
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,920
Speaker 3: around four points. I don't think it was high enough

431
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 3: to start with, I said, I don't think it was

432
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 3: low enough to start with, and I don't think they've

433
00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 3: dropped it enough for Lamar Jackson being out. So Ravens

434
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 3: d defense terrible. We know this injured everywhere, Like my

435
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 3: entire matrix, I bowled when it's an injuries, just bowled

436
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 3: all the way across for the Ravens. But it's Houston.

437
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 3: Can they really take advantage? I don't think so. Houston

438
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 3: in four games has six touchdowns. Five of those six

439
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 3: took to the fourth quarter. Four of the six started

440
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 3: in opposing territory, and two of them were broken plays.

441
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,159
Speaker 3: Like one of them. The defense literally wanted them to

442
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 3: score the football. That's what it takes for the Texans

443
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 3: to find the end zone. Nick Kyley, no answers, offensive line,

444
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 3: no answers CJ. Stroud, major regressions so far. And then

445
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 3: the flip side is the even bigger twist. You mentioned

446
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:43,360
Speaker 3: all the Ravens overs with Lamar though, so Texans defense

447
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:45,640
Speaker 3: the one unit on the field we can still count

448
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 3: on here. No Lamar Jackson, no Ronnie Stanley, the best

449
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 3: blocking guy on the offensive line, and by the way,

450
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 3: no Lamar Jackson to cover all the failures of the

451
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,639
Speaker 3: offensive line and kind of scramble around and make some

452
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:02,680
Speaker 3: magic happen. Cooper Rush, not that guy twenty points a game,

453
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 3: just over that in his starts. And if you remember

454
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 3: in recent years, whenever Lamar would go out, Tyler Huntley

455
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 3: unders were just like a cash cow. So you had

456
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 3: some of these stats. You did the work for me

457
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 3: in your article. No, Lamar Jackson. Here's what happens with

458
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,959
Speaker 3: the Ravens since he became a starter. Baltimore's win rate

459
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 3: drops seventy percent down to twenty nine percent. And importantly,

460
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 3: they go from over twenty eight points a game to

461
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 3: sixteen point six. That's a huge dropoff, and totals in

462
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 3: those games, the ghost games go from forty nine to

463
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 3: thirty five point nine. That's like real football and fun,

464
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 3: entertaining football to wire. My eyes bleeding right now. Football,

465
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 3: that's where we're at. And by the way, if you've

466
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 3: watched Houston this season, your eyes are already bleeding. Here's

467
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 3: the scores in Texans game this season twenty three, thirty nine,

468
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:53,360
Speaker 3: twenty seven, and twenty six. Three of the four games

469
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 3: at twenty seven or below. Average total score under twenty

470
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 3: nine points, so yeah, under forty and a half if

471
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,880
Speaker 3: you need it, because Houston's four to oh to even

472
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 3: that under right now, they can't set this line low enough,

473
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 3: so we've got to go back to the mind shaft

474
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 3: here as well. Lamar Jackson since becoming the starter, there's

475
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 3: thirteen games where he did not play for injury, other reasons.

476
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 3: Baltimore has gone under forty and a half ten of

477
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 3: those thirteen, so that's our under. But in eight of

478
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 3: the thirteen sixty two percent they've gone thirty three and

479
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 3: a half for below, So that's at plus two thirty

480
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 3: five and then thirty and a half or below, so

481
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 3: thirty points are less. They've gone under that in the

482
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 3: non Lamar games over half of the time, fifty four percent.

483
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 3: We get plus three to fifty on that one under

484
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 3: thirty seven and a half. I skipped over that one.

485
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,400
Speaker 3: That's our last key number, so plus one forty five

486
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 3: and then the very bottom of the escalator. I said

487
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:51,120
Speaker 3: the twenty seven. Houston's been below that three or four

488
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 3: times this season. Baltimore is twenty seven or below three

489
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 3: times without Lamar as well. Twenty seven and a half

490
00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,880
Speaker 3: under is plus five fifty or five sixties, So lots

491
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 3: of numbers and all these mine shafts.

492
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 2: I know.

493
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 3: That's why we got the quick slip for you. Click

494
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 3: the link follow on the app. You can see I'm

495
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:11,200
Speaker 3: sizing all this stuff. Let's just root for awful, ugly

496
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 3: no point football, just the way Houston likes it.

497
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 2: My only quote unquote Evan Bet to add to your

498
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 2: list here based off of your methodology, would be, what

499
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 2: about I see this last time I looked plus money

500
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 2: at DraftKings, but Baltimore to punt on their first drive,

501
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 2: Like if it's not that, it feels like they're going

502
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 2: to move the ball, but at least off the bat.

503
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 2: I don't expect them to move the ball much downfield,

504
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:39,880
Speaker 2: So I thought that was relatively interesting.

505
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind that. My only instinctive thought against

506
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 3: it is possibly the Ravens are sole up against it.

507
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 3: Could they maybe go for a failed fourth down and

508
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 3: turn it over that way like that, just like our

509
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 3: backs against the wall, we gotta try something and fire

510
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 3: up the team. I could see that. But you know, yeah,

511
00:25:57,520 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 3: I expect a lot of punts in this game. If

512
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:01,920
Speaker 3: if you're in some sort of twisted fantasy league where

513
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 3: you get like a points per pund or punts inside

514
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 3: the twenty boy, you're gonna be excited. We got great

515
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:08,159
Speaker 3: news for you on Sunday.

516
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, some of these matchups this week, they are something

517
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 2: to be desired. All right. Before we get some more

518
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 2: bets from Brandon, let's toss it over to Chris Raybond

519
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 2: with the word from our sponsored The.

520
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast is sponsored by DraftKings and in partnership

521
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: with DraftKings, we'd like to tell you that the next

522
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 1: great touchdown is coming and you can bet on it

523
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524
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525
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526
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527
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,680
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528
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 1: Network when signing up with DraftKings.

529
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 2: To get on board.

530
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 3: The crown is yours. See the funder Lightning.

531
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 2: Round lighter already lightning round time. So we've got three

532
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 2: more bets from Brandon. We are gonna go a little

533
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 2: bit quickly here. I have an angle or two in

534
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 2: some bets. I'll track them as well, but we will

535
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 2: talk about them when we get to that game. Let's

536
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 2: start with Lions and Bengals. We started with the Lions

537
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 2: at the top of the show, where we talked about

538
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 2: the fact that it feels like they cover every week

539
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 2: and the spread can't be big enough. So you're gonna

540
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 2: go a different way. What are you doing there?

541
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna take the under here under forty nine

542
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:22,959
Speaker 3: and a half. And I don't mind if you want

543
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:24,639
Speaker 3: to wait on this one. This one is kind of

544
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,159
Speaker 3: trending upward, so I'm fading a little bit here. We

545
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 3: might get a fifty or something, not a super important

546
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 3: number in all likelihood, but you might get a better line. Look,

547
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 3: we said the top, I don't want to bet on

548
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 3: the Lions in this game because of some reasons I'm

549
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 3: about to tell you, but I hate to bet against them.

550
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 3: So the Bengals, we already know they're not doing anything

551
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 3: right now. They've scored thirteen points the last two games

552
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:48,919
Speaker 3: with Jake Browning. That's thirteen combined. Of course, they did

553
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 3: give up seventy six, so that's not great for our

554
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,199
Speaker 3: under here. We know the defense is bad. Why wouldn't

555
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 3: the Lions just put up a big number.

556
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 2: I don't really know.

557
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 3: This is a trends play for me. So I'm not

558
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 3: gonna tell you why the Lions shouldn't score a thousand

559
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 3: on the Bengals. They probably should. Jared goffs outdoors on

560
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 3: the road not his best spot, and I do think

561
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 3: it's a bit of a look ahead spot though. The

562
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 3: Lines go at Kansas City next week, So let's just

563
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 3: get rid of the Bengals and move on to the

564
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 3: game that matters. I said Monday, Well, on our Sunday

565
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 3: a recap, I said, this is probably a bilo spot

566
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 3: for Cincinnati. Well, it wasn't. It was, It could get worse.

567
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 3: It was twenty eight to three. It was not a

568
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 3: lot of fun. So I'm not super enthusiastic to jump

569
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 3: back on the Bengals here. But I got a lot

570
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 3: of trends popping on the Bengals. Trends for awful margin

571
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 3: of victory, bounce back spot check, trends for a big

572
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 3: loser versus a big winner. The lines one big last

573
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 3: week check for that one. Trendsfer panned to fourteen point

574
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:46,479
Speaker 3: underdogs at home. Another check for the Bengals. Some two

575
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,520
Speaker 3: and two trends checks for the Bengals somehow still two

576
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 3: and two, So a lot of trends, but we know

577
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 3: about all the Lions stuff, all the lines ats something. Okay,

578
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 3: if I don't want to act to have to be

579
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 3: on the Bengals, what's another to play this. Well, I'm

580
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 3: not expecting the Bengals to cover in a shootout. They

581
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 3: can't score right now, so if they do cover, it's

582
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 3: probably just low scoring. It's probably the Lions just kind

583
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 3: of went through the motions and got the job done

584
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 3: and get out of there. So here's the trend that

585
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 3: popped for me, and this is the only reason I'm

586
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 3: playing it. Really, totals over forty five since twenty thirteen

587
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 3: with a home underdog of a touchdown or more sixty

588
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 3: seven percent to the under by a field goal. And

589
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 3: if you push it even further, because this is way

590
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 3: over forty five, that same trend but narrowed now make

591
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 3: it forty eight points are higher on the total. We're

592
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 3: at almost fifty here and a home dog of seven

593
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 3: to twelve points. Listen to this result forty nine sixteen

594
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 3: and one to the under seventy five percent rate. We

595
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 3: only get to bet that trend like three times a season,

596
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 3: so I don't love it either. The Lions have a

597
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 3: game with sixty eight points and a game with seventy

598
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 3: three points, but guess what, they get a four twenty

599
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 3: four to forty in there too. So I want to

600
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 3: follow the trend, hope we get more Bengals than lines

601
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:07,720
Speaker 3: here and just take the under forty nine and a

602
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 3: half and stick with our ugly under his week.

603
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this bet has uh. I think it

604
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 2: has to do with both sides, but from Cincinnatis and

605
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 2: Jake Browning, forty one point nine percent is his success

606
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 2: right this year. When he had most of his playing

607
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 2: time in twenty twenty three, it was forty eight point

608
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 2: four percent. Just to fully understand the difference between those

609
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 2: two numbers, Browning is twenty ninth in success right this

610
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 2: year thirty three quarterbacks in twenty twenty three. That number

611
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 2: would have made him thirteenth this year. So a very

612
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 2: very big difference just in terms of probably the opponents,

613
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 2: but also in terms of his play. I think the

614
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 2: other part of this bet is it feels like Dan

615
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 2: Campbell is playing for the polls and thinks he's like

616
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 2: the best team in the country sometimes when he's playing

617
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 2: these games and trying to up the score. So I

618
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 2: looked it up. Since twenty twenty two when the Lions cover,

619
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 2: the over is twenty five and sixteen, which makes complete sense.

620
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 2: So what Brandon's said is right. Cincinnati is going to

621
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 2: have to somewhat be in this game unless it's just

622
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 2: an absolute goose egg. And then you know, Detroit just

623
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 2: can't score fifty. So there are a few ways here,

624
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 2: But yeah, this number is massive.

625
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 3: And we saw that you tried hit that under last week.

626
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 3: That way you just said, we played that one Detroit

627
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 3: Cleveland and hit the under because Cleveland just no showt

628
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 3: on offense and even though the Lions did score points,

629
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 3: it still went under. So we can go that way

630
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 3: too if we need to.

631
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep rolling Sunday night football. It's a

632
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 2: white out. Uh, Patriots Bills. I have a better two

633
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 2: for this game as well, probably gonna track in the app,

634
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 2: but I'm gonna let Brandon go first. What are you doing?

635
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,959
Speaker 3: I'm going the long shot play here. I'm gonna nibble

636
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 3: the long shot Patriots on the money line plus three sixty.

637
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 3: So let me make the case here. I think the

638
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 3: Bills are just a touch overrated right now. They're four. No,

639
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 3: they're getting the number one power ratings bump right, because

640
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 3: there's nobody else, Like, who else can be number one?

641
00:31:57,640 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 3: It's sure as heck, isn't the Eagles? We've talked plenty

642
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 3: of them. No thanks for me on that team this week?

643
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 3: The Bills played the Jets, the Dolphins, and the Saints

644
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 3: the last three weeks, So, like, what do we know

645
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 3: about this team? They've played nobody except the Ravens in

646
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 3: Week one, which, may I remind you they were getting

647
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 3: trounced for three and a half quarters before coming back.

648
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 3: And how does that look now in hindsight with that

649
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 3: Ravens team as bad as that's gone since then? So

650
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 3: are we sure that the Bills are this juggernaut? Four

651
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 3: to O team? Josh Allen seven and six against the Patriots.

652
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 3: It's by far his toughest division opponent. It's his most

653
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 3: losses against any teams. Bills Patriots four straight one score games. Okay,

654
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 3: so how about ats then one score game covers the spread? Well,

655
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 3: I'm not quite convinced of the Patriots enough to get

656
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 3: a cover. And if I'm not convinced, then I'd rather

657
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 3: just hope I'm really right and go straight for the

658
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 3: money line. So Patriots. I do like this team. They're

659
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 3: playing ahead of expectations on offense. Thirteenth in DVA, top

660
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 3: quarter of the league passing. That's a Drake May stat.

661
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 3: Drake May has been awesome. This is a guy that

662
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 3: I've been very high on. He has ripping it through

663
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 3: the defense right now, and I think this could be

664
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 3: a great game for Stefan Diggs. He's slowly been ramping

665
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 3: up on the snap count. It's obviously his old team here,

666
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 3: great kind of Bilo spot for Digs forward. The weak

667
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 3: spot for the Patriots has been their defense. It's opposite

668
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 3: what we thought coming to the season. The offense is

669
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 3: ahead of the defense. I don't mind that because the

670
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 3: defense hasn't been healthy. But now has Christian Gonzalez back,

671
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 3: the star corner that bumps everyone down a spot. Now

672
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 3: Carlton Davis is number two. Now you have a great

673
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 3: secondary in what's been a bottom of five pass defense

674
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 3: so far, and obviously you need that against the Bills.

675
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 3: So I like how this defense can shape up with

676
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,479
Speaker 3: an offense that's already ahead of the learning curve. Bill's

677
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 3: defense twenty first in DVOA not that great so far,

678
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 3: and the Patriots should have a big special teams advantage too.

679
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 3: They've been really crushing on punt and kick returns this

680
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 3: year and we're seeing special teams have a huge impact

681
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 3: week after week. So again in the ATS, there's a

682
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 3: lot of trends here that would go Patriots, some two

683
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 3: and two trends, some big division underdog trends. But Mike

684
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 3: Rabel as a three point underdog or more sixty four

685
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 3: percent ATS that's pretty good. But in those forty one games,

686
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 3: he is a winning record as a three point underdoger

687
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 3: more twenty one and twenty fifty nine percent ROI on

688
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 3: the money line, And if you go to six point

689
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 3: underdog or more still seven and seven, you're not supposed

690
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 3: to be a five hundred coach as a six point underdog,

691
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 3: So guess what one hundred and two percent ROI on

692
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:38,280
Speaker 3: the money line if you bet those Mike Rabel games

693
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 3: as a six point dog or more. I don't love

694
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 3: the matchup here for New England in that Buffalo wants

695
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 3: you to beat them with a run and Drake may

696
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 3: has been what's going well for New England. That's why

697
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 3: I'm gonna skip the ATS. But if I'm right and

698
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 3: it's close, and Drake just has a big game, I'm

699
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 3: gonna go for the kill. So Patriots plus three sixty

700
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 3: on the money line, and I think two again with

701
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 3: the futures escalator here, even though the numbers a little lower,

702
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 3: I guess a great spot to buy a Patriots playoff ticket.

703
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 3: Pit Patriots to make the playoffs plus one seventy two.

704
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,320
Speaker 3: In my ratcle this week, I looked at all the

705
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 3: two and two teams that's New England in the AFC.

706
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 3: There's only nine of those. One of them is the Bengals,

707
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 3: who I don't think count, So there's really eight teams

708
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 3: for seven spots. Maybe whoever wins Ravens Texans this week,

709
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 3: maybe they're another team in that mix. But by the way,

710
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 3: three of the teams above the Patriots right now are

711
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:35,320
Speaker 3: the three and one Colts and Jaguars and Steelers. And

712
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 3: I bet you don't believe in at least one of

713
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 3: those teams, maybe more than one. So I think this

714
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 3: is pretty open. And here's the thing. Normally I would say, well,

715
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 3: why buy the Patriots ticket right now? They're probably going

716
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 3: to lose the bills. Why not wait till later. Well,

717
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 3: here's the reason I mentioned leverage earlier at PFF. This

718
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 3: is the biggest leverage game of any team for the week,

719
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 3: and it's the Patriots thirty six percent to make the

720
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 3: playoffs right now. But here's where the leverage is all upside,

721
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 3: and it's upside for our ticket. If they lose, they

722
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 3: dropped a thirty one percent. No harm done, We've lost

723
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 3: very little. Your ticket's not gonna get longer by waiting.

724
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:13,839
Speaker 3: But if they win, you're never getting a plus one

725
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 3: seventy two again. They jump to sixty percent to make

726
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:20,359
Speaker 3: the playoffs with the win and tied for the division lead.

727
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 3: Here's what happens after this Bills game for the Patriots, Saints, Titans, Browns,

728
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 3: Yes please, Falcons, Box, Jets, Bengals, Giants. I didn't skip games,

729
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 3: that's the whole schedule until the high week. If they

730
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:39,359
Speaker 3: win this game, they're on track and going to make

731
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 3: the playoffs. So I don't want to wait around in

732
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 3: case the money line does cash. I'm gonna grab the

733
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 3: ticket now and I might just grab it again later

734
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 3: even if it doesn't hit here. So Pats on the

735
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 3: money line plus three sixty willing to make the playoffs

736
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:54,839
Speaker 3: plus one seventy two did.

737
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:56,800
Speaker 2: A great job there, Brandon, because you didn't sell me

738
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:59,479
Speaker 2: on Patriots to make the playoffs when you talked about

739
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 2: just the game. But then you gave me the schedule

740
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 2: coming up, and I said to myself, how could I

741
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 2: not so well done? I'll say this about your Patriots bet,

742
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,800
Speaker 2: so just blanketed you took my Vabel stats. Aside from that,

743
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 2: in terms of he just keeps it close. So seven

744
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:17,399
Speaker 2: plus point underdogs in our database nineteen point four percent

745
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,839
Speaker 2: straight up. When you take them off of a win,

746
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 2: twenty point seven percent, when you put them at night

747
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 2: twenty four percent. So I think in this scenario, especially division,

748
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 2: it creates an opportunity. Now let me just give you

749
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 2: my two bets quickly in terms of how I see

750
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 2: this game. So, Buffalo's rush defense allowed twenty six ten

751
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 2: plus yard rushes in the NFL this year, most by

752
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 2: six more than any other team. So I think this

753
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 2: is a triviaon Henderson week on both the ground and

754
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 2: in the air. Six yards per carry. I just think

755
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 2: they need to figure out a way six yards per

756
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 2: carry in terms of Buffalo what they're allowing, So I

757
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 2: think they need to figure out a way to get

758
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 2: him the ball. The two bets are Romandre Stevenson under

759
00:37:57,800 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 2: eight and a half rush attempts. He only had nine

760
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 2: lives week, and I feel like his carries are going

761
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 2: to start coming down. But here's the stat. So all

762
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,359
Speaker 2: New England running backs twenty seven carries while trailing this year,

763
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 2: which again, even if they win this game, we feel

764
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 2: like it's going to be back and forth. But only

765
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 2: twenty seven carries, eleven from Henderson, nine from Gibson, only

766
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:19,799
Speaker 2: seven from Stevenson. So I feel like if you get

767
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 2: into that mode, I just don't see him in the

768
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 2: game much. So that's the way I would play that.

769
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,759
Speaker 2: And then two fun parlays. So I think Travion at

770
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 2: two touchdowns at twenty two to one is something I'm

771
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 2: gonna nibble on here if I think he's gonna get

772
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 2: the playing time, and in a game with a fifty total,

773
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,480
Speaker 2: I feel like there's an opportunity. And then a little

774
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 2: bit of an anti correlation parlay. So I can't parlay

775
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,839
Speaker 2: this at many books, but I like Stefan Diggs under

776
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 2: nineteen and a half longest reception. So Buffalo this year

777
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:53,320
Speaker 2: only allowed five completions of twenty plus yards, fewest in

778
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:57,760
Speaker 2: the NFL. May'sa dot this year, twenty eighth in the NFL,

779
00:38:58,040 --> 00:38:59,839
Speaker 2: So I feel like that helps with you know who

780
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 2: know after the catch. So the parlay for me, especially

781
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 2: in a Digs return game to Buffalo where there's gonna

782
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:09,720
Speaker 2: be a little bit of that going on under nineteen

783
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,400
Speaker 2: and a half longest reception, you could parlay with a

784
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 2: touchdown at about eight to one, so basically keep him

785
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 2: in check Patriots. Could you can even add Patriots money

786
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 2: line to that. There's some few things that'll be fun there.

787
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 2: But that's the way I look at this game.

788
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:26,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's interesting. It should be a fun game.

789
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 3: Like initially a week ago as we're kind of looking

790
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 3: ahead to the schedule as like, ah, you know, kind

791
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:34,279
Speaker 3: of a snoozer maybe with the high line as we're

792
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 3: getting ready for a podcast. It's always a bit of

793
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 3: a rush on Sunday night. I don't think so. I

794
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 3: think it could be not like a shootout, back and

795
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 3: forth type. I think we're gonna probably get some long

796
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,399
Speaker 3: drives on either side from this game, and so maybe

797
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 3: kind of a shorter game in that way. You know,

798
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 3: I wouldn't mind not a seventeen hour workday this Sunday

799
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 3: with the London game in the morning, can we not

800
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:56,760
Speaker 3: go forty to forty into overtime again? That'd be fine

801
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 3: with me. But I think it'll be a fun game.

802
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:00,320
Speaker 3: I think we'll have fun talking about it as we

803
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 3: lead off the recap on Sunday night.

804
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 2: All right, last lightning round. Bet here, you're gonna have

805
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 2: to explain this one to me. So this is this

806
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,400
Speaker 2: is a go bigger, go home situation. So tell me

807
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 2: why you're buying into the Dolphins.

808
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 3: Tell me why I'm buying into the Dolphins. Maybe this

809
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 3: is therapy. So here's where I'm at, Dolphins at the Panthers.

810
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 3: I'm gonna make two bets here, So let me tell

811
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 3: you the bets off the top and then talk myself

812
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 3: into or out of them from there. So I'm taking

813
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 3: the team total on Miami, but I'm taking an alt

814
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,280
Speaker 3: and only the alt. I don't want the regular median

815
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:36,799
Speaker 3: outcome over thirty two and a half. The regular line

816
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 3: is twenty two and a half. So give me the

817
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 3: Miami over thirty two and a half plus four fifty five,

818
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 3: and then we're running back my tip ryman. Bet. I

819
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 3: didn't get to play tip ryman in Week two that's

820
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 3: where it all went wrong. He was gonna win all

821
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:52,320
Speaker 3: my money back in that terrible week and then he

822
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 3: got benched. I'm gonna get bench she was hurt, ain't

823
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:57,320
Speaker 3: get to play. So I want a tight end against Carolina,

824
00:40:57,760 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 3: and I don't want Darren Waller. I want Julian Hill.

825
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 3: Julian Hill plus nine to fifty for the touchdown. Okay,

826
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:08,239
Speaker 3: therapy time. So I was like, Okay, this game sucks. Next,

827
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 3: don't need anything. Well, okay, there's gotta be something here.

828
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 3: We all had to watch Miami on Monday night. I

829
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 3: think they kind of look sort of ish like Miami,

830
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,799
Speaker 3: and then of course, you know, Tyreek Hill gets hurt,

831
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:22,760
Speaker 3: lose all the gravity there. Short rest week for Miami.

832
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 3: TUA has not been great against zone Carolina zone heavy. Okay,

833
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 3: maybe not great, but Miami is still favorite on the road.

834
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 3: I think Miami is the right favorite. And here are

835
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:37,319
Speaker 3: a few numbers with this pretty low line for Miami again.

836
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 3: Team total twenty two and a half. Carolina since the

837
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,919
Speaker 3: start of last year has allowed twenty two or more

838
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 3: all but two games. We know they have the shutout

839
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:47,879
Speaker 3: a week ago with Atlanta, but all but two games

840
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 3: have allowed at least twenty two. So let's right at

841
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,359
Speaker 3: that number. Tua has had twenty three or more nine

842
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:54,280
Speaker 3: of his last thirteen. So that's so. I was like, Okay,

843
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 3: Dolphins team over. But I just do I need it?

844
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 3: Do I need a Dolphin regular? Bet? I don't. If

845
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 3: I want to be right about the Dolphins, I want

846
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 3: to be really right. So if Miami wins, Tua in

847
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 3: his last eighteen wins has scored twenty two points or

848
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 3: more in sixteen of those, so all but two. But importantly,

849
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 3: this is where we're gonna hear the number thirty two

850
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 3: point four points a game. In those when the Dolphins

851
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:24,760
Speaker 3: play well, they score, and when they score, they score

852
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 3: a bunch. Thirty two and a half. Here's the other number.

853
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:31,359
Speaker 3: Since the start of last year, Carolina, I've just told

854
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 3: you they have a lot at least twenty two and

855
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 3: all but two games in that stretch. Take out those

856
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:40,439
Speaker 3: two games, they're allowing thirty two point two points a game.

857
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:43,280
Speaker 3: So that's it. That's the number. Thirty two from Miami,

858
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 3: thirty two from Carolina. Over thirty two and a half

859
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 3: plus four fifty five, the Dolphins will probably score thirteen

860
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 3: and flush our money. But if they do score, they're

861
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:54,439
Speaker 3: gonna score a bunch. And if they score, how about

862
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 3: our guy Julian Hill. And by the way, what would

863
00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 3: be his first career touchdown? That's what we're betting, a

864
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 3: terrible bet. Let's have some fun. Let me run back

865
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 3: the Panthers case. Panthers have allowed last year eleven touchdowns

866
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 3: two tight ends, most in the league. This year, they

867
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 3: already allowed two to Hunters, Hunter Long and Hunter Henry.

868
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 3: And remember here's the list of dudes, some of them

869
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:22,880
Speaker 3: that scored last year on the Panthers. Foster Moreau twice,

870
00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 3: Noah Gray twice, Ben Sinnott, Nate Adkins, Payne Durham. These

871
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 3: aren't just tight ends. These are like the second tight end.

872
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 3: These are the blocking tight end. So I think we're

873
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 3: getting a dip here on Julian Hill. Darren Waller comes

874
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 3: back Monday night, gets all the story right, two touchdowns,

875
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:45,920
Speaker 3: but he only played sixteen snaps. He hasn't played yet

876
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 3: this season up until then. He's ramping up. Julian Hill

877
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,359
Speaker 3: is still the tight end one. He played forty one

878
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 3: out of fifty eight snaps. He's the blocking tight end

879
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 3: and they need him out there. So I think he's

880
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 3: on the field and we just need one. This dude's

881
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 3: got twenty career catches, so we're probably only getting one.

882
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:06,480
Speaker 3: We got one shot at this thing. He has two

883
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:09,399
Speaker 3: catches in four games this season and no touchdowns ever

884
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 3: till this week. Plus nine to fifty at Draftking, let's

885
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:14,879
Speaker 3: go Julian Hill.

886
00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:18,359
Speaker 2: There is nothing you can do, but I am going

887
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:22,320
Speaker 2: to bet him for last touchdown because I feel like

888
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 2: that is the right route right at the end of

889
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:28,240
Speaker 2: the game. You never see it coming Miami in a route.

890
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 2: I will say this, if you're going to get your bet,

891
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 2: it feels like Miami's defense, which has been absolutely horrible

892
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 2: so far this season, needs to continue to be horrible

893
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 2: because I think it's just going to help your effort.

894
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 2: But fifty two point six success right for Miami's defense

895
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 2: through four games, it's second worst in the last five

896
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 2: years or since twenty twenty two through four weeks, absolutely ridiculous,

897
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:53,479
Speaker 2: So I think that'll help your part. All right, let's

898
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:55,920
Speaker 2: keep rolling here. So Brandon, for your last few picks,

899
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 2: We're going to Jets Cowboys game. You've got a few props,

900
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 2: and they'll finish it off with the same game parlay

901
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 2: presented by DraftKings. So give us Jets. Cowboys, what are

902
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 2: you doing?

903
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I'm I'm gonna have a few bets here.

904
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,440
Speaker 3: Let me kind of talk you through it, and we'll

905
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 3: recap at the end. So I looked very hard at

906
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 3: just betting the Cowboys spread here Cowboys minus two and

907
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 3: a half. I like a lot of things about Dallas trends.

908
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 3: I got an eight to o trend spot for Dallas.

909
00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 3: Normally that's an open close case for me. I'm just

910
00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 3: betting all my trends week five and six road favorites

911
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 3: you want them right now? Since twenty and twenty one

912
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:34,080
Speaker 3: road favorites in weeks five and six are thirty five

913
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:37,400
Speaker 3: and fifteen against the spread seventy percent, A lot of

914
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:40,880
Speaker 3: trends here would support Dak as the favorite. Dak sixty

915
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:45,000
Speaker 3: three percent ats against sub five hundred teams justin fields

916
00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:47,719
Speaker 3: Bad as an underdog, and twenty nine percent against sub

917
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 3: five hundred teams of both of these teams are so

918
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:53,880
Speaker 3: all the trends think the Cowboys. But I kind of

919
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 3: think the Jets are a bit underrated right now. They

920
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 3: look pretty good. In that Dolphins game we all had

921
00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:00,439
Speaker 3: to watch, they were way better by success rate game.

922
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 3: My number is actually think just on paper that the

923
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 3: Jets should be favored, so I couldn't quite get there.

924
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,800
Speaker 3: On the Cowboys. The Jets actually ranked top seven success

925
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:13,879
Speaker 3: rate offense and defense, and the Cowboys defense is dead last.

926
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:17,520
Speaker 3: Dvaway thirty first and success rate even though they played

927
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 3: the thirtieth easiest schedule and Dallas's top three and tempo.

928
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 3: So I think we might get some of those long

929
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 3: Jets drives like we saw the Jets due on Monday

930
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 3: before they fumbled at the end of all of them.

931
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 3: So I decided I wanted some Jets running back props.

932
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:38,359
Speaker 3: Braylan Allen goes out injured on Monday, so I think

933
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:40,759
Speaker 3: that gives us some opportunity. He's out now for he's

934
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 3: on IR so Bree Hall like it or not, Jets

935
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 3: is going to have to get some extra touches now.

936
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:49,839
Speaker 3: And I like Breese receiving, so give me Breese over

937
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 3: twenty and a half receiving yards. He has had thirty

938
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:55,479
Speaker 3: yards receiving her more in three of the four games

939
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:59,000
Speaker 3: this year. Dallas has allowed twenty four yards receiving her

940
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:01,800
Speaker 3: more in all four games to a running back, including

941
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 3: two to the Packers just last week, so there's gonna

942
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 3: be some receiving there over twenty and a half and

943
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 3: then thirty yards or more, which again Breeze has done

944
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 3: three of the four games. That's plus one seventy. So

945
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:15,680
Speaker 3: just a little nibble there. And I was looking at

946
00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 3: Breece's touchdown because it just seems like, okay, well, Braylen

947
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 3: Allen's gone. He's been the red zone guy, so it's

948
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 3: gotta be Breece now right, Well maybe not. What if

949
00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 3: it's the other guy with Isaiah Davis. So here's the numbers.

950
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 3: Dallas has allowed three or four running backs three or

951
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:35,200
Speaker 3: four games have had a running back touchdown against them.

952
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:38,480
Speaker 3: Braylan Allen has been the red zone guy. Six of

953
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:42,280
Speaker 3: his eighteen carries. Well, he's out. Breece has fifty two carries,

954
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:45,279
Speaker 3: only three in the red zone. They clearly don't want

955
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:48,279
Speaker 3: it to be him. Entre Isaiah Davis, like I know

956
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:50,400
Speaker 3: pretty well because he played at South Dakota State, my

957
00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 3: NDSU rival. Dude is physical. He's a bulldozer. He's at

958
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 3: between the tackles runner and he played twenty one snaps

959
00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 3: on Monday night. He had double digit touchdowns each of

960
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:03,440
Speaker 3: his last two seasons with the jack Rabbits. I think

961
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:06,600
Speaker 3: he is going to be the new brailn Allen this offense.

962
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 3: I think he's the goal line guy, and we get

963
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 3: him at plus seven hundred because he's a name we

964
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 3: don't really know too much about yet. So Breese Hall

965
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:19,719
Speaker 3: receiving yards, Isaiah Davis on the touchdown. And then if

966
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:22,720
Speaker 3: you do want the parlay, here's our DraftKings sponsored parlay

967
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:25,120
Speaker 3: for the week. Let's throw it all together. Gave me

968
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:28,719
Speaker 3: the Breee receiving yards and the isa Davis touchdown, but

969
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 3: for some negative correlation, let's still take that Dallas minus

970
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 3: two and a half to get the win and cover.

971
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:37,239
Speaker 3: Let's trust all those trends. We get all three of

972
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:40,800
Speaker 3: those together, Cowboys cover haul over on the receiving yards

973
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:44,360
Speaker 3: Davis touchdown at plus eighteen hundred at DraftKings.

974
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 2: I like it. My only question for you is do

975
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:49,440
Speaker 2: you see they sign Khalil Herbert. I feel like he

976
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:51,920
Speaker 2: won't get much work this week and they're going to

977
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:54,279
Speaker 2: go back to Breese and Davis. So I feel like,

978
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 2: for at least a week or so while Braylan's on IR,

979
00:48:57,400 --> 00:48:59,840
Speaker 2: this feels like the Battering Ram they're gonna go with

980
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:02,440
Speaker 2: in terms of those two guys. So let's recap the

981
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:05,879
Speaker 2: parlay here, it's Dallas minus two and a half, it's

982
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:09,319
Speaker 2: Bristol over twenty and a half receiving yards, and it's

983
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:12,359
Speaker 2: Isaiah Davis to find the end zone eighteen to one

984
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:17,600
Speaker 2: SGP presented by DraftKings. All right, let's do our look ahead.

985
00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:20,320
Speaker 3: Now, let's look ahead.

986
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 2: Just give it a shot. How about next week? I

987
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:29,719
Speaker 2: got my mind sat, I got my mindset. We are

988
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 2: going to look ahead to week six before you like

989
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 2: the Chargers minus two and a half against the Commanders

990
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,799
Speaker 2: right now, you're saving yourself about a half point, which

991
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 2: is nice, nice to have in your back pocket, and

992
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 2: it sits about three. So what are you doing for

993
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 2: week six?

994
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 3: We're going to our first game on the schedule Thursday,

995
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 3: and one of the easier look aheads I've chosen. Give

996
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:51,840
Speaker 3: me the Eagles minus six and a half at the Giants.

997
00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:53,839
Speaker 3: Like I have dumped plenty of the Eagles this year,

998
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:56,400
Speaker 3: but this is a division of rivalry that is not

999
00:49:56,520 --> 00:49:59,480
Speaker 3: a rivalry. Eagles have won seven of eight games against

1000
00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 3: the Giants. The one they lost they sat their starters

1001
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 3: on Week eighteen, So they're really seven of seven. Average

1002
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:08,280
Speaker 3: margin of victory in those games eighteen and a half points.

1003
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:11,760
Speaker 3: These are not good games. These are not watchable games.

1004
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:14,400
Speaker 3: Every win by at least six points. We just need

1005
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,760
Speaker 3: them to win by a touchdown. And of course Saquon

1006
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 3: Barkley back in New York doing his thing a revenge spot.

1007
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:24,000
Speaker 3: We saw it last year twenty eight to three for

1008
00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 3: the Eagles. We did not see the return game that

1009
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:28,759
Speaker 3: was Week eighteen, when Sakuon could have pushed for the

1010
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:32,759
Speaker 3: record but the rest of him. But Barkley averaged ten

1011
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 3: and a half yards of carry against the Giants last year,

1012
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:37,840
Speaker 3: was his best against any opponent in historical season. And

1013
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:40,319
Speaker 3: guess what. The Giants run defense is worse this year.

1014
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:43,800
Speaker 3: They're dead last by DVOA. So I know Saquon hasn't

1015
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 3: had great numbers so far this year. This probably is

1016
00:50:47,239 --> 00:50:50,439
Speaker 3: the spot for the breakout. And of course Jackson dart

1017
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 3: on a short week against Fangio no moleak neighbors. You

1018
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:57,560
Speaker 3: gotta like this for the Eagles on both sides of

1019
00:50:57,600 --> 00:50:59,919
Speaker 3: the ball. I'm assuming we're gonna get to the seven

1020
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 3: and beyond. It already is at some books. Thursday Night

1021
00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:05,320
Speaker 3: favorites of seven or more forty four and thirty against

1022
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 3: the spread sixty percent. I can't believe we can get

1023
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 3: Eagles minus six and a half right now. So grab

1024
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:12,279
Speaker 3: that if you can, Grab a seven, if you can,

1025
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:14,719
Speaker 3: if it's out there, and get ahead of the line

1026
00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:15,919
Speaker 3: movement for next week.

1027
00:51:16,000 --> 00:51:18,239
Speaker 2: On the look Ahead, I might have to I'm in

1028
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:19,640
Speaker 2: New York. I'm might have to find my way to

1029
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:23,080
Speaker 2: that game. Watch Saquon do his thing, all right, that'll

1030
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:25,319
Speaker 2: do it. Here on the Action Eery podcast for our

1031
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:29,040
Speaker 2: NFL Week five Best Bets episode presented by DraftKings, Do

1032
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 2: not forget to download the free award winning Action Eric

1033
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:35,759
Speaker 2: Apptasy Word from all of our Action Eric contributors. If

1034
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:38,960
Speaker 2: you want instant notifications when action experts track their bets,

1035
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:41,920
Speaker 2: go to actioneer dot com slash pro use the promo

1036
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:44,759
Speaker 2: code pod twenty for twenty hours off a year of

1037
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 2: action Pro. If you're on Twitter, we have a great

1038
00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:49,719
Speaker 2: new feature. If you see a bet from any of

1039
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:53,520
Speaker 2: our favorite action experts or anyone on gambling Twitter, you

1040
00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 2: can now tag at playbook and tell your bot to

1041
00:51:56,280 --> 00:51:58,320
Speaker 2: build you a bet. Slip at a book of your choice.

1042
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 2: It will build it out for you with quicksliplink that

1043
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:04,280
Speaker 2: opens right up to your sportsbooks, So check out playbook

1044
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:06,960
Speaker 2: on Twitter and again, if you want to tell some

1045
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 2: of the bets we gave out today, make sure to

1046
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:11,200
Speaker 2: look for the quick slip link in the podcast and

1047
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:15,560
Speaker 2: video description or go to Actionnework dot com slash bet now.

1048
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:19,000
Speaker 2: We will be back Sunday night for NFL recap show

1049
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:21,600
Speaker 2: that it'll be live on Action Network to YouTube page

1050
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 2: shortly after Sunday night football Patriots bills. Thank you for listening,

1051
00:52:26,760 --> 00:52:29,360
Speaker 2: enjoyed this late. Good luck with all your bets this weekend.

1052
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 1: Enjoy Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1053
00:52:49,560 --> 00:52:52,360
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1054
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:55,279
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1055
00:52:55,400 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler