1 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:07,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 2 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:20,280 Speaker 2: Welcome to this very special edition, live edition of voter Nomics, 3 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 2: where politics and markets collide. This year, as we all know, 4 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 2: voters around the world have the capacity to turn markets, 5 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 2: countries and economies like never before. I'm Stephanie Flanders, head 6 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 2: of Economics and Government here at Bloomberg. 7 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 3: I'm Allegra Stratton. 8 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: I write the readout and I used to be in government. 9 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 3: Before that, I was on TV. 10 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 4: I'm Adrian Wooldridge. I'm Global Opinion columnists for Bloomberg Opinion. 11 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 5: I'm a guest, and I'm the editor at Bloomberg. 12 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 2: So we have brought in our special guests also our 13 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 2: boss for this event, and I guess by accident or 14 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:05,679 Speaker 2: by design, we've ended up doing it at the end 15 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 2: of a well maybe another week coming up, but at 16 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 2: the end of a pretty incredible week in voter nomics land. 17 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 2: Pre minster Rishi Sunak's inexplicable decision to skip a big 18 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 2: chunk of the D Day commemorations last week, despite the 19 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 2: best efforts of his spin doctors, still taking up a 20 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 2: lot of discussion. Although I guess it has distracted us 21 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 2: from what was previously his most inexplicable decision, which was 22 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 2: to call the election in the first place. But then 23 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 2: we have just in the last twenty four hours, French 24 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 2: President Emmanuel Macrol, not to be outdone, has decided that 25 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 2: he too wants to call a snap election that he 26 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 2: doesn't need to call when he's heavily behind in the polls. 27 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 2: That in response to some pretty interesting European election results. 28 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 2: The markets have responded pretty sharply this morning, particularly in 29 00:01:56,360 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 2: the French markets. But I think we've got plenty more 30 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 2: to discuss around those elections, which you know, in some 31 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 2: ways followed what people had thought, but I think it's 32 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 2: not as clear a picture as you know, not a 33 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 2: completely clear picture, and of course we have that stunning 34 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 2: gamble by President Macrol. We obviously have to talk about 35 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:18,519 Speaker 2: the US because it's an impossi impossible not to, although 36 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 2: that's still many months away, and we luckily have Peggy Collins, 37 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 2: Washington Bureau Chief to here to talk a bit about that, 38 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 2: and we have the Queen of Bloomberg Television, Francs Lacoit, 39 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 2: to help talk through the European results. But I guess 40 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 2: we have to start with this all Star cast that 41 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 2: we already have we should start with the UK and Allegra, 42 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: you sort of hinted to it, but you were a 43 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 2: former advisor to Richie Sunac mind and you know we 44 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 2: you know you also still have your family still have 45 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 2: soall we say close connections to to Richie's decisions. So 46 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 2: I mean just the outside to the outside eye, it 47 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 2: just doesn't seem like it's going that well. 48 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 1: So what you're going to notice is that Stephanie teases 49 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:13,799 Speaker 1: me on voteronomics, doesn't she tess slash reserves quite tough questions. 50 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,800 Speaker 1: I think he has had there was last week in 51 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:23,119 Speaker 1: the last week, sorry, the current Prime Minister has had 52 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 1: a had had a good outing and had a really 53 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:30,959 Speaker 1: bad outing. D Day was an incredibly damaging episode for him. 54 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 1: But I think the TV debate was a pretty good 55 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: outing for him. And it just goes to show, you know, 56 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: frontline politics is a roller coaster and is is incredibly tough. 57 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 1: And I think the two things are that they are 58 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 1: interesting and they are linked, which is there. They are 59 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 1: resetting what they wanted to do, which is reset the 60 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: agenda to talk about tax and they did it fairly effectively. Yes, 61 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: there was a great big barney about the veracity of 62 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: the claim which they're you know, leading into and they're enjoying, 63 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 1: you know, wanting to claim of a two thousand pound 64 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: which they've you know, pumped out over four years, over 65 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 1: four years, which they've pumped out more material on over 66 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: the last few days. But then the decision to come 67 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 1: back from D day early was was was was really 68 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 1: regretful you've seen and heard, which she's soon apologize profusely 69 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 1: indeed again today I think the only thing that is 70 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 1: perhaps a lost I think sometimes in the sort of 71 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: row about it is having been in government, it is 72 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 1: quite incredible to get that sort of the busyness of 73 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: you know, you've got an itinery and not saying by 74 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:37,919 Speaker 1: the way this means that it was it was it 75 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:39,920 Speaker 1: was okay for him to he should you know, he's 76 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 1: a leader and he should have he should have really 77 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 1: stress tested the decision. 78 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 3: But you get an itinerary, you'll tell. 79 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: To go to the airport at a certain time, there 80 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: is a car, you get pushed into it. And I 81 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: think you know, if and when kits Dharma becomes becomes 82 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,479 Speaker 1: the next Prime minister, he will have some moments like 83 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 1: these right there are there's a lot about government that is, 84 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,799 Speaker 1: you know, too too busy, too far for any human 85 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 1: being to process adequately. But that doesn't mean that Rishie 86 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: shouldn't have said, hold on a second, there's a big 87 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:08,919 Speaker 1: event going on, and I can see Biden flying in, 88 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:09,839 Speaker 1: and shouldn't I be there. 89 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 4: I've been trying to explain to myself how he came 90 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 4: to make this rather catastrophic decision, and I had two explanations. 91 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 4: One is that he is a Wykamist, and Wickimists just 92 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 4: don't understand this sort of thing, and you have to 93 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 4: leave the government of the country to The second explanation 94 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 4: is that he's too assiduous. A student of Walter Badgert. 95 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 4: Walter Badgett was the great nineteenth century constitutionalists and editor 96 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 4: of The Economist, who argued that there are two branches 97 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 4: of British government, the dignified branch and the efficient branch. 98 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 4: And the dignified branch is the branch that the monarchy occupies, 99 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:45,839 Speaker 4: and the efficient branch is the branch that sort of 100 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 4: technocrats do and they take their real serious decisions. And 101 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 4: I think he's also always been a person who thinks 102 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 4: that government is about delivering things efficiently, doing spreadsheet style things. 103 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 4: He's never liked the ceremonial side. 104 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 1: Up to a point, and that a large part of 105 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 1: how you describe Britshi is fair. But he also does 106 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 1: have this quite a powerful sense of national service, of 107 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 1: service and of national service, but the services of a different. 108 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 3: Sort as well. 109 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: And also I mean he himself has done a lot 110 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: for veterans, and you know, the idea just flip it right. 111 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: This is always the helpful way to look at these things. 112 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 1: If you say, if you say, you know, do you 113 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: want to sort of snub eight year old you know, 114 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 1: one hundred year old d Day? 115 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 3: You know, do you here's no way he. 116 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 2: Would have to give you some credit allegroate. I mean, 117 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:41,919 Speaker 2: after Thursday afternoon there was that odd thing where and 118 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 2: we should we should move on from this quite soon, 119 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 2: because I know people have heard a lot about this, 120 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 2: but you know, there was interestingly that the press corps 121 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 2: by and large had sort of it had gone without 122 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 2: notice to some degree, or people had not really considered 123 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 2: it to be a big problem potentially until they saw 124 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 2: the photos. But I did notice, I mean the readout 125 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 2: that the daily news letter we actually had pointed it out. 126 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 2: And I think we're the first to really sort of 127 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:08,040 Speaker 2: make an argument of it and say this seems a 128 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 2: bit odd, not saying that we you know, quite predicted 129 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 2: how large it would be, but I mean that you 130 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 2: sort of can't get, I quite slightly get the sense 131 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 2: that if you've been sitting in the room, you would 132 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 2: have said, isn't this a bit weird? 133 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 3: No? 134 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 1: No, yeah, because for all the reasons everyone here you know, 135 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 1: will be familiar with. 136 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 3: But it is. 137 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: Look, he's building a campaign based on appealing attracting a 138 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 1: certain demographic. 139 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 3: Older demographic though by. 140 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: The way, younger people would be, as you know, upset 141 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 1: by decision to come back from D Day, but you know, 142 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 1: strategically make any sense. 143 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 3: But also it's just who he is. He's a respectful 144 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 3: guy right age. 145 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 2: When you just to sort of go off for what 146 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 2: something that Allegra said, she said, obviously the goal of 147 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 2: the week and to some extent even calling the campaign, 148 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 2: calling the election, was to reset the ground and to 149 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 2: change the terms of the debate. Yes, I mean clearly 150 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 2: there is someone who's done that in the last week 151 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 2: outside of the D Day discussion, and that is Nigel for. 152 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 4: Us, Yes, and I think what's happened in this campaign 153 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 4: is a very very dark and unpleasant man has put 154 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 4: himself right at the center of it, and he has 155 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 4: completely changed to the tenor of the campaign. He is 156 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 4: attracting votes from the right of the Conservative Party. He 157 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 4: may well win a seat, and as a relative of 158 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 4: winning that seat, he may be central to the reconstruction, 159 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:32,080 Speaker 4: the recombination of the right after the elections. That he 160 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 4: is a very very bad man who's taken Britain wants 161 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:36,559 Speaker 4: to take Britain in very very dark directions. 162 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 2: I think we talked a bit about this last week 163 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 2: on the podcast, but do you think that we will 164 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 2: quite soon see them the Reform overtake the Conservatives in 165 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 2: the polls and will that be Will that be a 166 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:50,200 Speaker 2: signal moment for many in the time. 167 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 4: I think if Reform overtakes the Conservatives in a sustained way, 168 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:57,840 Speaker 4: that is a very important moment in British politics. Already, 169 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 4: they have overtaken the Conservatives a lot of Red Wall 170 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 4: seats and that's beginning to have impact. We have Suella 171 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:07,320 Speaker 4: Bravman saying that you know, there isn't really a cigarette 172 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 4: paper between her and Nigel Farage, and we have the 173 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 4: Reform Party taking potentially a lot of money the Tory Party. 174 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 4: One of the many odd things about this election is 175 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,959 Speaker 4: the Tory Party hasn't got very much money. It's I 176 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 4: think it's pulled. It's spending on social as it's called, 177 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 4: because they haven't got enough enough money to spend on it. 178 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 4: And we could see arage in the Reform Party out 179 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 4: spending the tourist so I can see a situation in 180 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 4: which they really accelerate. 181 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 6: John. 182 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:39,680 Speaker 2: You are because you're so important and you get to 183 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 2: sort of flit around the world, but particularly you're spending 184 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:45,199 Speaker 2: quite a lot of time in the US. You've been 185 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 2: there and a range of other places in the last 186 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 2: week or so. How much is any of this discussion 187 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 2: changing the way people look at the election, or how 188 00:09:57,120 --> 00:09:59,440 Speaker 2: indeed is the election coming across the people? 189 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 5: I think I think if you look, if you look 190 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 5: at it from outside, and you're right, I've been in 191 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 5: Europe and US for the past ten days, but particularly 192 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,439 Speaker 5: from that angle, I think they people people take several 193 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 5: things away. Number one is immigration, and that's because exactly 194 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 5: the same problems that they're seeing this is the kind 195 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 5: of immigration election they detect, and they think the same 196 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 5: kind of things are coming in America and you're already 197 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 5: seeing the European elections. I think the second thing is 198 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 5: just the straightforward political horse race. It's very odd, especially 199 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 5: in America, to think of someone who who calls an 200 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 5: election when they're twenty points behind. What's what's behind that? 201 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:40,560 Speaker 5: That has broken through into the American audience far more 202 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 5: than the D Day thing, which, to be honest, they 203 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 5: really didn't see. They just saw pictures of Biden looking 204 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 5: a bit dodgery. And the last thing, which actually is 205 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,440 Speaker 5: I think interesting, and I think I've heard this more 206 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 5: in America than Europe paradoxcy, is Brexit. They are every 207 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 5: American business person you talk took the big thing which 208 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 5: has affected the way we look at Britain is Brexit. 209 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 5: Why aren't you talking about that? Why isn't that the 210 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,559 Speaker 5: big subject of the campaign. And if you ask them, 211 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 5: you know, you point out the Tories and trouble, they 212 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 5: assume that is because of Brexit. And a lot of 213 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 5: these are people who have very little to no admiration for. 214 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 6: The European Union. 215 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 5: They're not in that way, They're just looking at it 216 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 5: in a pragmatic way. So this country took this momentous 217 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:32,319 Speaker 5: decision which by virtually every method. I'm not trying to 218 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 5: refight that battle, but by every every conceivable thing they 219 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 5: can see it has not worked. Why isn't that the 220 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 5: main thing? So there's a weird way whereby the people 221 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:46,319 Speaker 5: outside in some ways are looking on us sort of 222 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 5: saying we're avoiding the elephant in the room in a 223 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:52,200 Speaker 5: way that we might be Adrian all. 224 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 2: We're going to carry on ignoring it, aren't we. 225 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 4: Briefly, well, strangely the lib Dems, who would have thought 226 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 4: would be one party that we should shouting about this 227 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,319 Speaker 4: and now so they're not going to, you know, campaign 228 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 4: on taking Britain back into the to the EU. And 229 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 4: the Labor Party has got an obvious reason not to 230 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:09,839 Speaker 4: not to talk about it. I was at an event 231 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 4: with a senior Labor person who was talking on and 232 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 4: on and on. He said, Brexit has been an absolute disaster. 233 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 4: It's cause all this trouble to Tori is Orige is 234 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 4: how can they have done something so stupid? So I said, 235 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 4: so you're going to take us back into the EU? 236 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 3: Are you? 237 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:26,000 Speaker 4: And he suddenly reversed that we can't reltigate that. So 238 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 4: they're it caught in a very peculiar bind that they 239 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 4: think it was a disaster, but don't want to don't 240 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 4: want to reverse it. 241 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 2: There's no appetite. 242 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 1: No, I mean, I was just going to pick something 243 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 1: up that our boss. It's just I'm not sure it 244 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 1: is an immigration election. I mean, Nijera Farage would like 245 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: it to be an immigration election. 246 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:45,680 Speaker 6: And and. 247 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,319 Speaker 1: But actually, well what is what is it as an election? 248 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:52,320 Speaker 1: It's a good question because it sort of each week 249 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 1: has a different theme, and actually there isn't one clear 250 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 1: kind of this is just the unanswerable big boulder that 251 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 1: everybody has to pick up. It's you know, one week 252 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 1: was tax and really was big tax last week, right. 253 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 5: I would be fair to say yeah to the two 254 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 5: thousand pounds did seem to break through a bit because people, 255 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,960 Speaker 5: I think people outside, especially business people, had taken on 256 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 5: board the idea that Starmer was not going to be 257 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 5: a big change, that he wouldn't that there might be 258 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 5: some changes in the margin. But suddenly the idea of 259 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 5: people paying two thousand pounds more that did that was 260 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 5: one thing which did get through. Perhaps I would argue, 261 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 5: perhaps even more than the Dday thing. 262 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 4: It's an election without a theme, but it's also an 263 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 4: election without a promise. I mean nineteen eighty seven, nineteen 264 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:37,319 Speaker 4: ninety seven, everybody is incredibly optimistic about New Labor doing 265 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:39,959 Speaker 4: lots of new and exciting things. I mean, we're just 266 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 4: saying about Starmer, well, he's not going to be quite 267 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 4: as bad as this awful lot that we've got, so 268 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 4: let's vote for it. 269 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 2: But is the theme going to be that we're seeing 270 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 2: the disintegration of the Conservative Party and all of what 271 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 2: we thought would play out on the other side of 272 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 2: a late victory actually playing out rather sooner. Is that 273 00:13:57,720 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 2: what we had a hint of from the last So. 274 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 4: You think so, I don't think so you go first, Well, no, 275 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 4: I think I think the Tory Party is clearly falling apart. 276 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 4: I think when you have a situation. In nineteen eighty three, 277 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 4: the Labor Party called an emergency press conference and said, 278 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 4: the rumors you're hearing are not true. Michael Foote is 279 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 4: still our candidate, and there's almost full confidence as a 280 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 4: full confidence, and there's almost a sense that that is happening. 281 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 4: That you know, things have got so bad that there 282 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 4: was a period in which people thought that the Reason 283 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 4: might actually pull out of this thing, and the Tory 284 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 4: Party had to reassure the country that you won't. So 285 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 4: that's a pretty bad situation to me. It's the party 286 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 4: that's falling apart. 287 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 2: And there's one result of that. We were just talking 288 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 2: about this earlier, that the actual on the night the 289 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 2: results actually suddenly become much more interesting. I mean, of 290 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 2: course there'll be the sort of one assumed the size 291 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 2: of the Labor victory, but actually is what is left 292 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 2: in Parliament is now suddenly rather up for grabs. So 293 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 2: many things get mashed by the fact that reform is. 294 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 4: You could get a reverse imagine eighty three in which 295 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 4: you know, at a party doesn't well in the polls 296 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 4: but doesn't get any seats like that, I mean, the 297 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 4: tourists could hold up but still which. 298 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:13,560 Speaker 2: Still happened at twenty fifteen as well. 299 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 1: But look, you look, you're right, and what we've seen 300 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: today is Sweller Bratherman as of the traps, you know, 301 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 1: quickly wanting to you know, stand Schulz shoulder with Farage 302 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 1: and so on, and that the optics of that, I get, look, 303 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 1: may make it look like it's sort of already a 304 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: done deal, that there'll be some stitch up and so on, 305 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 1: But the reality of it, to your point stuff which 306 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 1: is totally right, is that it's all about the numbers. 307 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 1: Who you know what the numbers are. And by the way, 308 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 1: I've covered enough elections so we all to know that. 309 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: And I know this sounds, you know, sort of spin 310 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 1: doctory ish, but. 311 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 3: That you know, we don't. 312 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: So much can happen in three weeks. So much can 313 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 1: happen in three weeks. You had Nick Clegg riding high 314 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 1: in that TV debate and then the numbers were not 315 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: at all what he thought would be. Anyway, we don't know, 316 00:15:56,920 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 1: so it's slightly foolish to even sort of go there. 317 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 3: But if the opinion. 318 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 1: Polls now are what you know are in any are right, 319 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 1: then of course it is. It is an existential crisis 320 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 1: for the Conservative Party. 321 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 3: The question then becomes what. 322 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 1: Actually you know which is the dominant faction, whether there's 323 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 1: a number of factions or whether it's actually you. 324 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 2: Know, which is also completely unclear, and it's hard. 325 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 3: To nobody knows. Nobody knows. 326 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 1: So Suella Brotherhaman might be, you know, quickly quickly trying 327 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: to kind of, you know, be Nigel Farash's best mate, 328 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 1: but actually a there will be other fact, there'll be 329 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: one nation Tories who will not be okay with that 330 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 1: happening to the Conservative Party. But also within that sort 331 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 1: of world that Sella occupies, there are people with different 332 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 1: a different view, which is, if I'm going to take 333 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 1: over this Conservative Party. 334 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 3: I'm not going to give it to him. I'm going 335 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 3: to take it over. 336 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 1: So you've got it's just yes, Suella, and the pictures 337 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: and everything she said today suggests that you know, they're 338 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 1: getting very much ahead of themselves. But I think it's 339 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 1: just that I think they're getting ahead of themselves. We 340 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 1: don't know the exact complexion of the result. 341 00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 5: That's quite an interesting counterpoint is you can have the 342 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 5: British election with at the moment I think we all 343 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 5: agree a likely Tory defeat. Almost straight afterwards you're going 344 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 5: to have the Trump Convention. And if you look at 345 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 5: conservatism generally, when you said is conservatism in trouble, you 346 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:16,880 Speaker 5: have two different versions. You might have it find it 347 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 5: being tranced at the ballot box here in one way, 348 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 5: but in America you might find a man appearing who 349 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 5: in many ways suddenly when Adre and I used to 350 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 5: write about it, that version, whatever Trump stands for, many 351 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:34,119 Speaker 5: people would not have seen that as remotely compatible with 352 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 5: say Ronald Reagan or on virtually every single. 353 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:40,359 Speaker 2: Issue, well as befits our grand leader. You have given 354 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 2: me a magisterial of a wise and meaningful segue. We 355 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:53,120 Speaker 2: can take a breath and think about the US, because 356 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 2: I think it is now we should we should have it, 357 00:17:54,800 --> 00:18:10,879 Speaker 2: think about the US. After that seamless transition, we are delighted. 358 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 2: I should probably those of you who are listening to 359 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:16,400 Speaker 2: paint the scene briefly. We are in the Bloomberg sort 360 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 2: of premium events space on the seventh floor of our 361 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 2: equally premium headquarters in the city of London, nestled between 362 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:32,120 Speaker 2: the Bank of England and Callon Street Tube Saint Paul's 363 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 2: nice visita of the SIMT Paul's. But Peggy Collins, Margaret Collins, 364 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 2: we have visiting from Washington. She's our Washington Bureau chief 365 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 2: and indeed runs all the economics and government coverage in 366 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 2: the US. Peggy. It's funny because I think we've already 367 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,439 Speaker 2: heard a bit of this. You know, when Europeans and 368 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 2: Brits certainly looking at the US election kind of mesmerized 369 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 2: by it, and they see all the worries around President 370 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 2: Biden's age, they see any number of worries and sort 371 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:08,160 Speaker 2: of perplexedness about Donald Trump, will you know, the convictions, 372 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 2: the trials, everything else. But actually, if you're in America, 373 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:15,719 Speaker 2: it feels a bit more similar to some of the 374 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:19,880 Speaker 2: forces that were seeing driving the European and the UK elections. 375 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:23,440 Speaker 2: A lot of the debate is around immigration, a lot 376 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:26,119 Speaker 2: of it is about inflation and the economy. 377 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 7: That's right, as Johnald was just saying, immigration has become 378 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,360 Speaker 7: a theme here in your election, but it really has 379 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 7: become a big theme in the US. Really at the 380 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 7: start of this year, we started to see in our 381 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,879 Speaker 7: reporting when we were in Iowa for the primaries in 382 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 7: New Hampshire for the primaris. 383 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 8: When we were. 384 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 7: Talking to people, Iowa was in the middle of the country, 385 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 7: New Hampshire's at the northern border, immigration and border security 386 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:51,880 Speaker 7: were coming up time and time again when we were 387 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 7: asking voters. 388 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 8: What they were thinking about. 389 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 7: And in March I actually traveled to the Texas border 390 00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 7: because I wanted to make sure that I understood the 391 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 7: perspective of people there to inform our coverage going into. 392 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:04,600 Speaker 8: The election this year. 393 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 7: So as Stephanie saying, immigration has become a huge theme 394 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,680 Speaker 7: in this election, in part because the Texas governor did 395 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,159 Speaker 7: start bussing some of the migrants that were coming across 396 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,400 Speaker 7: the southern border to bluer states like Chicago and New York, 397 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 7: and it did change some of the dynamic of who 398 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 7: was caring about it and why I think the Biden 399 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 7: administration is in a tough spot when it comes to 400 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 7: immigration and border security, in large part because he's the 401 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:33,639 Speaker 7: president is quite dependent on Congress for funding and legislation 402 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 7: to get some of the bigger changes done. 403 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,200 Speaker 8: And so he is in a tough spot there. 404 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 7: The other thing is is that former President Trump has 405 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:45,959 Speaker 7: really tied immigration and border security to national security. So 406 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:47,639 Speaker 7: that's in large part why you see a lot of 407 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 7: the Republicans saying they won't support funding for Ukraine, for example, 408 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:56,399 Speaker 7: unless there's equivalent funding put into border security. So I 409 00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 7: think on both sides there's a lot of rhetoric. And then, 410 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,400 Speaker 7: as Stephanie mentioned, the other big theme that comes up 411 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:03,199 Speaker 7: when we talked to voters and when we do our 412 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 7: swing state pole in seven of the most competitive states 413 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,679 Speaker 7: in the US, which we've been doing since October of 414 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 7: last year, is the economy. And when I say the economy, 415 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 7: what I mean, is the cost of living, and this 416 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 7: year that's really been centered around housing and energy costs, 417 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 7: utility costs as well as gas costs or I guess 418 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:26,439 Speaker 7: you would say petro costs here, and really the cost 419 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 7: of living and also inflation. 420 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,160 Speaker 8: Really, you know, people are very. 421 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 7: Focused on is there spending power the same as it 422 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 7: was maybe four years ago. 423 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,159 Speaker 1: Peggy, has it gone into a new phase the election 424 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 1: at the moment? 425 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,440 Speaker 7: You know, it's interesting, like only in the past few 426 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 7: weeks have I really felt like we've had a next 427 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:48,200 Speaker 7: chapter start. And it's for two main reasons. The Trump 428 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 7: trial in New York changed the way that Trump could campaign. 429 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 8: He was in the courtroom in New York and. 430 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,359 Speaker 7: Required to be for three out of the five days 431 00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 7: of a week. 432 00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 8: So that's meant that he. 433 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,720 Speaker 7: Had to do a lot of his campaign rallies of 434 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,120 Speaker 7: sorts and places like the Bronx in New York where 435 00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,400 Speaker 7: the Yankees play I'm a Yankees fan, had to get 436 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 7: that in there. But once the trial was completed and 437 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 7: he was found guilty on all thirty four accounts, as 438 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 7: we all probably know, he has been able to campaign 439 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,200 Speaker 7: again in some of the battleground states. So just this weekend, 440 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,439 Speaker 7: he went to Las Vegas and started talking to people 441 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 7: there about floating some ideas around not taxing tips, for example, 442 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,160 Speaker 7: for waitresses and service workers there, and that was an 443 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 7: indication that he has really focused on getting more workers 444 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,360 Speaker 7: and service workers in places like Las Vegas that were 445 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,440 Speaker 7: hit hardest in the pandemic to pay attention to his message. 446 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,919 Speaker 7: So that's something. And the other thing that changed in 447 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 7: this next chapter is the fact that after the conviction result, 448 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,159 Speaker 7: Trump gathered a lot of money right out of the 449 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 7: gate with his fundraising over fifty million right in the 450 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 7: first few days after that, and up until this point 451 00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,720 Speaker 7: Biden has had a huge advantage when it comes to 452 00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 7: CAP donations. We'll get some more information next week in 453 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 7: terms of data on how close this gap is now, 454 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:08,080 Speaker 7: but it is closing. 455 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:11,360 Speaker 2: As a result, Piggie, it comes and goes the focus 456 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 2: on Biden's age and his strength levels, shall we say. 457 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:19,159 Speaker 2: And there was a Wall Street journal piece that have 458 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,479 Speaker 2: got a lot of attention in the last week that 459 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,920 Speaker 2: was sort of claiming to be based on certain reporting. 460 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 2: I think it's been somewhat discredited by other reporting, like 461 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,439 Speaker 2: where those quotes were coming from, but is doing a 462 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 2: lot of travel last week and this week. Do you 463 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,200 Speaker 2: expect that to be again a focus. 464 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:38,199 Speaker 3: I do. 465 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 7: It's very much so scrutinized everywhere he goes. Really in 466 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 7: terms of his endurance levels, we did see an uptick 467 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 7: in people's perceptions of his age right after the State 468 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 7: of the Union. 469 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,560 Speaker 8: He seemed to get some positive remarks on that. 470 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,360 Speaker 7: I have seen Trump at rallies as well, and he 471 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 7: does have a lot of endurance and energy there. So 472 00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:58,359 Speaker 7: one of the things that's coming up at the end 473 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 7: of this month, which will be a tell I'd love 474 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:03,439 Speaker 7: to hear your thoughts on this too, John, would be 475 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,280 Speaker 7: the debate that's coming up. The first debate between Biden 476 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,719 Speaker 7: and Trump will be at the end of June, and 477 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,920 Speaker 7: that will be something I think people will be looking 478 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:11,600 Speaker 7: at in terms of. 479 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 4: Eight I cannot ask you a sort of rudimentary question. 480 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:16,879 Speaker 4: America is a big country with a lot of people 481 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 4: in it, and he's got quite a lot of talent. 482 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 4: How did you end up with these two candidates? 483 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 2: It's very old. 484 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 9: Well, it's something that we often think about a lot, 485 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 9: both as reporters and Americans, and our colleague Josh Green, 486 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 9: who's a fabulous BusinessWeek writer, did a story with our 487 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 9: reporter Nancy Cook last year that coined the phrase the 488 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,439 Speaker 9: double haters, which is a lot of people were not 489 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,119 Speaker 9: happy with either candidate, and so you do get the 490 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 9: sense that a lot of Americans were hoping that it 491 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 9: would not necessarily come down to these two candidates. 492 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:51,359 Speaker 7: But I think a lot of it has to do 493 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,439 Speaker 7: with our system now is infused with a lot of money. 494 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 7: I was just talking about the money and fundraising gap 495 00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:00,160 Speaker 7: and that has changed a lot of the way that candidates. 496 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 8: Are a to succeed. And the other is media. 497 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 7: I mean, Trump gets a lot of free media and 498 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,040 Speaker 7: that is something that someone like a Nikki Haley had 499 00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 7: to really overcome and wasn't able to. 500 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,159 Speaker 1: These TV debates is so intense. Do you know anything 501 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 1: about how his team is prepping him. 502 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 7: It's something that's a reporting target for us right now. 503 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 7: I know exactly I know, but I think you know 504 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 7: they go through every scenario that you could possibly do. 505 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,879 Speaker 7: And the one thing I will say is that both men, 506 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:30,600 Speaker 7: you know, at this point, know each. 507 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,439 Speaker 8: Other's strategies and teams very well. 508 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 7: So that is something that will you know, be in 509 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:36,680 Speaker 7: their favor in some ways. 510 00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 5: The one thing you hear from the Democrats alot is 511 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 5: that they want the same Biden who appears at the 512 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,360 Speaker 5: State of the Union, and that if he comes out 513 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,680 Speaker 5: like that, it's great, but if he doesn't, maybe changing. 514 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 7: And then, as you said, John, we go right after 515 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 7: the debate to the conventions in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Trump 516 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 7: will be and then at the very end of August 517 00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 7: will be in Chicago with Biden. So it'll be a 518 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 7: summer of both of them having to endure and have 519 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:04,960 Speaker 7: the stamina to go through. 520 00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 2: There's obviously you're having to sort of game out even 521 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 2: now thinking about election night and the potential for a 522 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:19,080 Speaker 2: drawn out, possibly a drawn out conflict tussle over the result. 523 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 2: And we are even we saw in the swing in 524 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:25,120 Speaker 2: our swing state pole rising concern from people on both 525 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 2: sides of potential violence around the election. One of the 526 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,600 Speaker 2: things that I that I was struck by talking to 527 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:34,359 Speaker 2: some people who spent a lot of time in the 528 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:38,160 Speaker 2: swing states doing polling and was a contrast to many 529 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 2: recent elections, was this idea that turnout, that low turnout 530 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 2: would actually on balance be good for Biden. Of course, 531 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 2: we're just not used to thinking that. We tend to 532 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:52,000 Speaker 2: think the Democrat vote is going to be higher the 533 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,160 Speaker 2: more people you get at. But because of the way 534 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:59,159 Speaker 2: Trump has scrambled attracted a lot more young voters, and 535 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 2: the additional number of younger African American voters, and just 536 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 2: the way things are playing out, what people care about. 537 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,440 Speaker 2: The kind of people who vote for Trump are maybe 538 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,000 Speaker 2: not so likely to vote. 539 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 3: You know. 540 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 2: That seems to be one thing that maybe people listening 541 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,000 Speaker 2: might have underestimated or not realized. And there are other 542 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,640 Speaker 2: things that people should look out for that we might 543 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:21,440 Speaker 2: not be thinking about. 544 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 3: Now. 545 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:23,720 Speaker 8: Well, a couple things come to mind. 546 00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,520 Speaker 7: I think the Biden campaign feels that there could be 547 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,639 Speaker 7: a path to winning that is unusual this year because 548 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,159 Speaker 7: of changes in population and the way we do the 549 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,199 Speaker 7: census in the US, and that would be if he 550 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:37,760 Speaker 7: lost all the Southern states, that he still may be 551 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:42,359 Speaker 7: able to win by achieving victories in what we call 552 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:46,959 Speaker 7: the Blue Wall, which is Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and 553 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:52,159 Speaker 7: also one random electoral vote in Omaha, Nebraska, which is 554 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,159 Speaker 7: a very Republican state and some of you may know 555 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 7: it because of Warren Buffett. 556 00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 8: He actually lives there. 557 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:02,200 Speaker 2: But Nebraska raises the average wealth level. 558 00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:07,840 Speaker 7: Does Nebraska is traditionally a very republican state, but Omaha 559 00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,239 Speaker 7: has become more liberal over time. So it would be 560 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,119 Speaker 7: possible for Biden to lose all of the competitive swing 561 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,359 Speaker 7: states if they are to end up being the ones 562 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 7: that we tend to think of, and yet wins the 563 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,960 Speaker 7: so called blue wall plus one electoral vote in Omaha. 564 00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,120 Speaker 7: I think the other thing that people may not realize 565 00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:25,560 Speaker 7: on what we've been trying to do a lot of 566 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,600 Speaker 7: reporting around at Bloomberg is a number of people who 567 00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 7: moved in the US after COVID. You know, the twenty 568 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,320 Speaker 7: twenty election was in November twenty twenty, but a lot 569 00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:36,560 Speaker 7: of people didn't decide in the US where they were 570 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,200 Speaker 7: going to live because of things like you know, working 571 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,000 Speaker 7: from home or return to office, which were in favor 572 00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 7: of here at Bloomberg. 573 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 8: That was career John. 574 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,479 Speaker 7: But in some of our reporting, we've shown that in 575 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 7: some swing states about some nineteen percent of eligible voters 576 00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,440 Speaker 7: have turned over in some of these wings states. So 577 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,480 Speaker 7: who those people are nine yeah, yeah, And who those 578 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:07,680 Speaker 7: people are, the demographics of them and how they may 579 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,840 Speaker 7: vote to Stephanie's point, could be really interesting and a 580 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,040 Speaker 7: big surprise. And lastly, I'll just say there are some 581 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:17,240 Speaker 7: ballot initiatives in some states like Florida and then Arizona 582 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 7: and Nevada that could turn out voters for Democrats and 583 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 7: help them more than we expect. 584 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 2: Peggy Collins, thank you so much for helping us out. 585 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:33,520 Speaker 8: Thank you for having me, Stephanie. 586 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,800 Speaker 2: Okay, So, to continue the series of star turns from 587 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:46,960 Speaker 2: our Bloomberg stars, we have Francis Lacoit, who is well 588 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,440 Speaker 2: known to lots of people as our main anchor, beloved 589 00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:55,440 Speaker 2: by many very senior interviewees like Christine Legard and others. 590 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 2: You're from, I don't know, several European countries. 591 00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:02,080 Speaker 10: Depending on who wins that football change. 592 00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:05,280 Speaker 2: So you're the perfect person to help us think about 593 00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:09,040 Speaker 2: these European election results. But I guess we have to 594 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,040 Speaker 2: talk initially about this enormous campbell by President Macro. 595 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:13,280 Speaker 3: I don't know what happened. 596 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,160 Speaker 10: So John interviews President Macron, like four weeks ago. He 597 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 10: has like a PM, well, he has a PM drop 598 00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 10: out of d day, out of last minute. Then he 599 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,640 Speaker 10: has a state dinner with Biden, and I'm told by 600 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:25,640 Speaker 10: people inside the room that certainly his Prime minister is 601 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,600 Speaker 10: extremely worried about the elections and then you know, I'm 602 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,880 Speaker 10: told that he's a very careful, you know, individual who 603 00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 10: actually procrastinates decisions, and we know that his his team 604 00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:38,760 Speaker 10: around at miss cabinet didn't know that he would you know, 605 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,520 Speaker 10: dissolve the Assembly and kind of call for legislative elections. 606 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:43,520 Speaker 10: So it's a little bit of a surprise the markets, 607 00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,600 Speaker 10: as you say, tak this morning for various reasons which 608 00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,400 Speaker 10: we can go into. And I think the question is, 609 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,000 Speaker 10: you know, did he see it as a political opportunity 610 00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:55,040 Speaker 10: because there it would probably be difficulty in the autumn 611 00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:57,480 Speaker 10: when they had to do the budget that he would 612 00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:00,480 Speaker 10: have to dissolve the Assembly anyway, or does he really 613 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:02,760 Speaker 10: see this as an opportunity. I know we were having 614 00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 10: a chat with Adrian and saying it's never great to 615 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:08,560 Speaker 10: call out the citizens who vote, but there is I 616 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,240 Speaker 10: think a belief in the Macron camp that he can win. 617 00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,840 Speaker 10: This turnout was very low for the Europeans, you know, 618 00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:15,960 Speaker 10: Brussels is kind of far away, and so I think 619 00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,560 Speaker 10: he believes and I can't believe that they voted for 620 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,560 Speaker 10: Mahinlupenz party saying you know, it doesn't really affect me 621 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 10: that back home it would be different. So turnout of 622 00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,800 Speaker 10: French voting for the Europeans was about fifty percent. Nationally 623 00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:32,480 Speaker 10: usually it's it's seventy percent. But it's it's a gamble 624 00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:36,240 Speaker 10: because he's basically staking his legacy. People say that he 625 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 10: also maybe wants to rerun in twenty thirty two, which 626 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 10: is unclear constitutionally. 627 00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:45,000 Speaker 2: What he So the next presidential election is twenty seven, Yeah. 628 00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,200 Speaker 10: And then it's five years it's run, he can't run. 629 00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:49,440 Speaker 10: Unclear whether he can run in the next one, whether 630 00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,360 Speaker 10: it's three terms that have to be consecutive. But it's 631 00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:54,640 Speaker 10: clear John that he kind of wants to you know, 632 00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:56,200 Speaker 10: that the Center wants to get rid of. 633 00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:58,480 Speaker 5: I think he's more of a guy I discoed front 634 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,440 Speaker 5: ce Bit. I think he's more of a gambler Mackerel 635 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:03,000 Speaker 5: because if you many of us used to know him 636 00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,360 Speaker 5: quite well, because he was the person you went to 637 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 5: go and see before you went to go and see 638 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:09,040 Speaker 5: a land when he was president. The thing about Mackerel 639 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:13,560 Speaker 5: is that he owes everything to one enormous gamble, which 640 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,600 Speaker 5: is to run for president with no party behind him, nothing, 641 00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 5: And I think every now and again he thinks it's 642 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,920 Speaker 5: worth and obviously here he thinks it's worth lilicking the dice. 643 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:25,200 Speaker 5: I think his gamble is exactly it's pretty much what 644 00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,880 Speaker 5: Francine said. I think that the other thing is, in 645 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 5: this case the alternative is pretty bad because he had 646 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,080 Speaker 5: definitely lost the momentum in France. 647 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:37,160 Speaker 6: I think he thinks that the next few. 648 00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 5: Years would be something where he would be unable to 649 00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:43,680 Speaker 5: achieve much at all, and this gives him away one 650 00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:48,560 Speaker 5: of if the National Front gets in, then he puts 651 00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 5: him on the spot. They will suddenly stop being a 652 00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,120 Speaker 5: party a protest. They will have to come up with things, 653 00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:56,120 Speaker 5: which Adrian's about to say is a very foodish strategy. 654 00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,320 Speaker 5: But the other one is I think he thinks that 655 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,960 Speaker 5: really confronted by that, real people will pack him. 656 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,320 Speaker 6: Well. The last time I can remember a. 657 00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:10,400 Speaker 4: Politician making a big gamble which involved calling out the 658 00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:14,720 Speaker 4: people was in twenty sixteen when David Cameron you're talking about. 659 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:18,120 Speaker 4: It didn't necessarily go very well. I think he can 660 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,880 Speaker 4: only have done this unless he's foolish and the gambler, 661 00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 4: because he considered that al penn Win was almost a 662 00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 4: done deal, that she was just too the movement was 663 00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:30,480 Speaker 4: too powerful, that he was too do. 664 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:34,800 Speaker 6: In the presidential race. So it was an act of 665 00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 6: desperation he read. 666 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,400 Speaker 4: He looked at the tea leaves and said, everything's moving 667 00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:39,240 Speaker 4: in their direction. 668 00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,920 Speaker 6: I need to I need to try and try, and 669 00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:42,920 Speaker 6: I need a surprise. 670 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,520 Speaker 10: He is an optimist, though, and I do hear, you know, 671 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:47,520 Speaker 10: from people close to him, that he thinks he has 672 00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:49,800 Speaker 10: a shot. And what's interesting is that, you know, there's 673 00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:53,280 Speaker 10: there's a lot of smart kind of doo put a 674 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,600 Speaker 10: gal analyst looking at what a Lupen presidency means. There's 675 00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 10: very few that are looking like what a burdella which 676 00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,760 Speaker 10: is from hammer did prime minister means, And that can 677 00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:05,080 Speaker 10: be you know, it's it's tricky the. 678 00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,680 Speaker 4: Trouble, the trouble with you know, in the presidential system, 679 00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,480 Speaker 4: the president tends to get the blame when things go wrong. 680 00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,399 Speaker 4: So it won't be the prime minister gets the blame. 681 00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:13,160 Speaker 6: It will be the president. 682 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,360 Speaker 4: The president is a blame magnet, and if he's presiding 683 00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:21,359 Speaker 4: over a divided, dysfunctional political system, I don't think that's 684 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,840 Speaker 4: a good way of what's say, with salvaging your reputation. 685 00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:26,319 Speaker 2: When you talk to them. I mean this is before 686 00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,359 Speaker 2: all this, but you know a few months ago when 687 00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:29,840 Speaker 2: you would sort of put to them, look, you're not 688 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,759 Speaker 2: going to be able to you know, doesn't this mean 689 00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:32,920 Speaker 2: you're not going to be able to do any of 690 00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,920 Speaker 2: your unpopular reforms, you know, this side of the presidential election. 691 00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,680 Speaker 2: And their view has always been that action was better 692 00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,160 Speaker 2: than in action, and that the more that you can 693 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:45,120 Speaker 2: tire the opposition with, you know, disagreeing with you on 694 00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:49,759 Speaker 2: responses to the things that voters actually care about, the more, 695 00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,000 Speaker 2: you know, the best that was their best chance is 696 00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 2: to actually be trying to do stuff that is seen 697 00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,320 Speaker 2: at least is trying to tackle the problems that voters 698 00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:02,640 Speaker 2: are seeing, rather than rejecting. And you could paint the 699 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:06,440 Speaker 2: hassell As as the sort of rejecting force. I mean, 700 00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,279 Speaker 2: I guess that's part of it. It's the idea that 701 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:10,520 Speaker 2: you put them on the spot and say, do you 702 00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:12,279 Speaker 2: actually want to make the world a better place? Or 703 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:14,680 Speaker 2: do you are you just running for the presidential. 704 00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,960 Speaker 10: But they have but France, as you know it has 705 00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:20,600 Speaker 10: a big many civil servants that if they get into power, 706 00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:23,040 Speaker 10: will kind of make it work. So there is and 707 00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:26,160 Speaker 10: there's this you know analysis, and actually they could mess 708 00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:29,080 Speaker 10: up that Lupen could mess up or her party if 709 00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,520 Speaker 10: they come into power, I mean you still have an apparatus. 710 00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:35,040 Speaker 10: I think the campaigning will be very important on the economy. 711 00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,600 Speaker 10: Lupen does not have a great track record and what 712 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:39,879 Speaker 10: she wants to do. We have not really seen a manifesto. 713 00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,600 Speaker 10: We've been calling chief executives from the CAC forty saying, 714 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,120 Speaker 10: who do you think is finance minister if Bordella becomes 715 00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:46,919 Speaker 10: prime minister and we don't really have an answer because 716 00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:49,600 Speaker 10: their economic team haven't been around and actually a lot 717 00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,960 Speaker 10: of the chief executives have not really engaged. From what 718 00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:53,520 Speaker 10: I gather. 719 00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,520 Speaker 2: You have a finance minister that you don't know France. 720 00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:59,080 Speaker 5: I do think there's the thing about Macron. As you 721 00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:01,239 Speaker 5: look at macron'sistory, this is from somebody who's one of 722 00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:06,640 Speaker 5: his closest I suppose advisors and also possibly rivals. The 723 00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,680 Speaker 5: basic thing you look at Macron. Macron came in as 724 00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:13,719 Speaker 5: this candidate of change and went quite hard by French 725 00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,680 Speaker 5: standards down that path, and then suddenly, as the last 726 00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:20,640 Speaker 5: presidential election arrived, he immediately switched the other way around. 727 00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:22,360 Speaker 6: And went to statis and stopped. 728 00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,000 Speaker 5: And now if you look at all the things he's 729 00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,439 Speaker 5: done recently from the interview with the Economist, he'd done 730 00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:31,800 Speaker 5: various other things, calling and with us as well, calling 731 00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:35,359 Speaker 5: for really dramatic changes again. And suddenly a Macron now 732 00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,120 Speaker 5: has this new figure who's trying to, as he sees it, 733 00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:43,080 Speaker 5: reimagine Europe. So he's absolutely in a much bigger way 734 00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:46,160 Speaker 5: than anybody who could argue since the law have started 735 00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,719 Speaker 5: to put four new visions for Europe. And yet his 736 00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:52,440 Speaker 5: problem is nobody's listening. The French I've turned against him. 737 00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,680 Speaker 5: He doesn't got on well with the Germans, and so 738 00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,040 Speaker 5: he's trying to do anything he can to change that. 739 00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:59,400 Speaker 5: So I think it's not just a simple matter of 740 00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:00,960 Speaker 5: electoral things he has. 741 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:02,520 Speaker 6: He has a sense of mission about this. 742 00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,240 Speaker 2: You've taken us onto the sort of broader European picture, 743 00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:09,440 Speaker 2: and the results you know, had been sort of of 744 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 2: those European election results had been predicted to be good 745 00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:19,040 Speaker 2: for the right. It's certainly certainly good for the right 746 00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:25,719 Speaker 2: in France, and you've had extreme respond extreme right and 747 00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:29,960 Speaker 2: the Yes, the establishment center, center right, center left parties 748 00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:33,600 Speaker 2: in Germany also completely humbled. But Francie quite a kind 749 00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,880 Speaker 2: of complicated picture around that. It's not obviously going to 750 00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,560 Speaker 2: see a big shift in the way the European Parliament works. 751 00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:41,320 Speaker 10: No, and we don't really know what happens to the 752 00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,680 Speaker 10: Commission president. I mean, I love it's like course wrangling, right, 753 00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:45,120 Speaker 10: so I give you this, I give you that. So 754 00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:48,120 Speaker 10: in terms of numbers, she has enough numbers we think 755 00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:52,640 Speaker 10: of to stay on for another term as as President 756 00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,560 Speaker 10: of the Commission. But of course they'll probably need to 757 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:59,240 Speaker 10: get more votes from center left in the European Parliament. 758 00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,080 Speaker 10: She needs a majority of votes from like heads of states. 759 00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,200 Speaker 10: And again, if you're a head of state and you think, look, 760 00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:07,520 Speaker 10: I have the rise of the rights, do I want 761 00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:11,000 Speaker 10: to be giving away kind of you know, policies are 762 00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,640 Speaker 10: more left leaning so that Ursula underline can stay. So 763 00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:15,560 Speaker 10: I think there's going to be a lot of horse trading. 764 00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,440 Speaker 10: We thought usually it takes like a month, you know, 765 00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,240 Speaker 10: maybe five weeks to have a president that either stays 766 00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:23,880 Speaker 10: on or you have a new one. Because of the 767 00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:26,520 Speaker 10: French elections, this could be delayed. I mean, he's a 768 00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:28,760 Speaker 10: little bit busy. At some point, there was like rumor 769 00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,200 Speaker 10: about Mario Draghi, which I mean, I don't know how 770 00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:33,040 Speaker 10: much political capital Macrol has now. 771 00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:37,680 Speaker 6: But maloney, your country, country, But where would she go. 772 00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:41,560 Speaker 10: So Maloney is probably the biggest winner in these elections, right, 773 00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:44,480 Speaker 10: she solidified also her power in the European Parliament. I 774 00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:48,600 Speaker 10: hear a lot of business people but also politicians saying 775 00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,680 Speaker 10: she's normalized the far right because she stayed the course 776 00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:54,759 Speaker 10: on Europe, because she stayed the course on reforms, because she, 777 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:59,400 Speaker 10: you know, still supports money being sent to Ukraine despite 778 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:03,120 Speaker 10: in the past, you know, friendships with Putin. And so 779 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,680 Speaker 10: it's actually also Maloney being the poster child. And we 780 00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,319 Speaker 10: saw La Penn trying to get closer to Maloney in 781 00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,560 Speaker 10: the last three weeks. She's kind of the poster child 782 00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:14,799 Speaker 10: of oh well, look she's you know, right, maybe far right, 783 00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,480 Speaker 10: and she's made it work for the economy, and so 784 00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,800 Speaker 10: she's yeah, she's She had a big smile when she 785 00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:23,840 Speaker 10: was talking to the press. 786 00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:27,360 Speaker 1: Today, fran The climate program is in some trouble, it 787 00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:29,319 Speaker 1: looks like because even though as you say that the 788 00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:33,080 Speaker 1: macro groupings are enough sort of keep the headline targets okay, 789 00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:35,960 Speaker 1: in reality the implementation is going to be tough when 790 00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:38,560 Speaker 1: you have so many more voices saying we've just heard 791 00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:40,160 Speaker 1: from the electure and they don't want as much of 792 00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:41,080 Speaker 1: this as we thought they did. 793 00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:43,719 Speaker 10: Yeah, and it goes back to again. I mean, I 794 00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,520 Speaker 10: think France was a good point because you know that 795 00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,080 Speaker 10: there's like a fourth power, which is people in the streets, 796 00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,040 Speaker 10: and we saw it with the shells on this this 797 00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:55,279 Speaker 10: you know idea that if you become more agreen, then 798 00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,879 Speaker 10: it's the person on the street that gets tax more. 799 00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:02,800 Speaker 10: And so there's almost I wouldn't say abandonment of green policy, 800 00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,880 Speaker 10: but you could really see a shift on green policy 801 00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,680 Speaker 10: appetite from the Commission and the European Union. 802 00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:11,320 Speaker 2: I should but in just to remind everyone QR code 803 00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,319 Speaker 2: for putting in your questions. We've got a few people 804 00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:15,080 Speaker 2: who put in questions. We're going to move to that 805 00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:16,800 Speaker 2: in a second. But I know Adrian is about to 806 00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:17,840 Speaker 2: say something very wise. 807 00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:20,960 Speaker 4: I'm trying to I'm trying to think of that. If 808 00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:23,479 Speaker 4: there are any general patterns in what you what we've seen, 809 00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:25,880 Speaker 4: you might say we've seen the rise of populism in 810 00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:28,239 Speaker 4: all of these elections we see, but in fact, you know, 811 00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:32,520 Speaker 4: a pretty populist leader in India was slightly humbled in 812 00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:34,759 Speaker 4: all this. I'll be seeing your shift are the right, 813 00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,520 Speaker 4: Well yes, but not in Britain, and I think, what 814 00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:39,600 Speaker 4: if I can think of anything that seems to be 815 00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:43,799 Speaker 4: going on, it's anti incumbency all over the pace. Incumbents 816 00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,799 Speaker 4: are being humbled and being brought down the people in 817 00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,400 Speaker 4: general of voting against incumbers because they're pretty annoyed, they're 818 00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:51,560 Speaker 4: they're they're pretty angry. 819 00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,359 Speaker 10: And so not in Italy. In Greece, actually the prime 820 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:55,440 Speaker 10: minister there did pretty well, So I think it's really 821 00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:58,160 Speaker 10: case by case. But I think John's point to the 822 00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:00,000 Speaker 10: fact that you don't have this Franco German a line 823 00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:03,080 Speaker 10: anymore really goes to the heart of Europe and it 824 00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:05,840 Speaker 10: could mean a lot going forward to the place of 825 00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:07,960 Speaker 10: Europe in the world of how we deal with Ukraine 826 00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:12,279 Speaker 10: and AID and reforms. I mean what I also hear 827 00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:14,759 Speaker 10: in the markets, and we've seen this like big move 828 00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:18,920 Speaker 10: in your own and French bond spreads. Our favorite subject 829 00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:21,760 Speaker 10: is that they worry that actually, whatever, if there's a 830 00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:25,359 Speaker 10: you know, PM from a Loupez party that they don't fund, 831 00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:27,319 Speaker 10: that we could have like many budget crisis or not 832 00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:29,080 Speaker 10: so many, just a budget crisis like we've had in 833 00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:31,000 Speaker 10: the UK. That if they want to put the retirement 834 00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,759 Speaker 10: age at sixty, well how are they going to fund that? 835 00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:37,479 Speaker 5: I think you could find a very possible answer to Adrian. 836 00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:39,520 Speaker 5: The question is you could end up if you look 837 00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:42,319 Speaker 5: across all these different races, it could be one then 838 00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:46,040 Speaker 5: where Maloney is a standard bari here. And obviously this 839 00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:48,040 Speaker 5: may not be acceptable to many of us, but it's 840 00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:51,680 Speaker 5: there that if you run a kind of populist nationalist party, 841 00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:56,040 Speaker 5: but you temper it with a bit of economics, which 842 00:41:56,200 --> 00:42:01,800 Speaker 5: pro business stuff that applies to Maloney apply to the 843 00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:05,279 Speaker 5: next conservative party here. It's certainly many if you were 844 00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:07,520 Speaker 5: in America, many people would say that is exactly what 845 00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:10,400 Speaker 5: Donald Trump is. You know, he is nationalism, but he 846 00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:12,520 Speaker 5: sure knows how to look after business, and he sure 847 00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,440 Speaker 5: knows how to deliver things, especially to the kind of 848 00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:16,440 Speaker 5: white for. 849 00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:18,040 Speaker 3: Their intention though, aren't they for instance? 850 00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:20,239 Speaker 1: And how do you do a program like that where 851 00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:23,960 Speaker 1: you business is saying we want more workers, and then 852 00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:27,040 Speaker 1: you're having to have quite tight immigration controls the next 853 00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:29,799 Speaker 1: the next whichever government it is, will have to be tied. 854 00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:31,040 Speaker 3: And so I think, yeah, you. 855 00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:34,600 Speaker 1: Completely get the theory, but in reality they it's tough. 856 00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:36,879 Speaker 5: I think it probably it probably works better if you're 857 00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:39,160 Speaker 5: in a huge economy like America than if you're in 858 00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,560 Speaker 5: a smaller one. But yes, but there is a kind 859 00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:44,480 Speaker 5: of if you had to look, and if I was looking, 860 00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,400 Speaker 5: and I had to try and guess which brand of politics, 861 00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:51,840 Speaker 5: and notwithstanding what happened to modiomojistorted reasonably well, there is 862 00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:54,279 Speaker 5: a kind of brand emerging which is not one which 863 00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:58,320 Speaker 5: is at all amicable with various causes which many of 864 00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,400 Speaker 5: us have spouted in the past, the kind of global liberalism. 865 00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:04,319 Speaker 5: But there is something emerging which is this much more 866 00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:07,400 Speaker 5: right wing than we have expected up to now, but 867 00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,279 Speaker 5: with a sort of bitter nationalism and quite a lot 868 00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:14,160 Speaker 5: of business friendly give business just enough to stick on side, 869 00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:16,879 Speaker 5: give them money so that they will back you if. 870 00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:19,400 Speaker 6: You're Donald Trump. You see quite a lot of Italian 871 00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:20,240 Speaker 6: business people. 872 00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:23,600 Speaker 5: Who don't want to be particularly seen with maloney, but 873 00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:25,000 Speaker 5: are prepared to, you know. 874 00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:27,360 Speaker 4: So it's a sort of a nationalist liberalism. 875 00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:27,839 Speaker 3: I must say. 876 00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:30,640 Speaker 4: Last time when I was in the United States, last time, 877 00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:34,240 Speaker 4: I was talking to some money people, and these were people. 878 00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:35,240 Speaker 6: Who all they were useful. 879 00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:41,360 Speaker 4: These are people who'd all basically said after the riots 880 00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:44,359 Speaker 4: and on Capitol Hill that they would never ever vote 881 00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:47,319 Speaker 4: for Trump. And they're all saying, well, actually, we've sort 882 00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:49,839 Speaker 4: of changed our mind. I think the money, you know, 883 00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:53,719 Speaker 4: Wall streets and money and business in America, having been 884 00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:56,480 Speaker 4: very reluctant about Trump, is suddenly saying, Okay, we'd rather 885 00:43:56,520 --> 00:43:58,399 Speaker 4: have him than I could the old guy. 886 00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:00,640 Speaker 2: I couldn't help thinking about that. As people were talking 887 00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:02,799 Speaker 2: about the rise of Nigel Farage last week, there was 888 00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:04,960 Speaker 2: quite a lot of conversation about whether or not he 889 00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:08,840 Speaker 2: would ever be acceptable to a large chunk of conservative voters, 890 00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:12,040 Speaker 2: and I think, at least for some sounded to me 891 00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:14,320 Speaker 2: rather complacent in saying, oh, there's you know, there was 892 00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:17,480 Speaker 2: a chunk of natural conservative voter that would never find 893 00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,239 Speaker 2: him an acceptable person to work to vote for. And 894 00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:22,680 Speaker 2: it reminded me a lot of a lot of Republicans, 895 00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:25,319 Speaker 2: you know, five or six years ago, who said, you know, 896 00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:30,560 Speaker 2: they'd never or longer that our party would never consistently 897 00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:32,520 Speaker 2: support someone like that. 898 00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:33,480 Speaker 3: They never Trumpers. 899 00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:36,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty thin on the ground. 900 00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:37,080 Speaker 6: Okay. 901 00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:41,080 Speaker 2: We've had a couple of questions actually, both about the UK, 902 00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:45,320 Speaker 2: one from Faize Jammi. Immigration is seen as a strength 903 00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,080 Speaker 2: in some countries as a way to grow their economies 904 00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:50,960 Speaker 2: and bring in a diversity of skills and knowledge. Why 905 00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:54,080 Speaker 2: is immigration seen so negatively in the UK by the 906 00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:58,400 Speaker 2: two major parties? Good question. 907 00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:03,480 Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I'll take the start of it, because 908 00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:07,480 Speaker 1: in the last decade or fifteen years, the perception was 909 00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:10,960 Speaker 1: pre Brexit that it undercut people's wages, So you had 910 00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:14,800 Speaker 1: a pure economic problem coming from immigration. What we're dealing 911 00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:16,600 Speaker 1: with now is the sort of long tail of that, 912 00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:20,799 Speaker 1: which is still an economic concern about people taking UK 913 00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:23,040 Speaker 1: jobs and all of that. But at the same time, 914 00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:25,080 Speaker 1: as we just sort of alluded to, you've also got 915 00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:28,600 Speaker 1: business saying we need more we need more immigrants, and 916 00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:30,279 Speaker 1: we need more workers, and we need them to be 917 00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:34,960 Speaker 1: more highly skilled. But even today you had Starmer saying no, no, no, 918 00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:37,960 Speaker 1: I'm not going to renegotiate freedom of movement. So you know, 919 00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:39,759 Speaker 1: that just tells me everything you need to know, even 920 00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,280 Speaker 1: though he will have people in his party saying please 921 00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:45,000 Speaker 1: relax this because we do need to get more workers 922 00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:47,440 Speaker 1: in and they need to be more highly skilled and 923 00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:47,839 Speaker 1: so on. 924 00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:49,720 Speaker 3: It's just such a third rail issue. 925 00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:52,399 Speaker 4: I'm not sure about the first part of the question. 926 00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:55,480 Speaker 4: I can't think of these quick countries that are crying 927 00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:59,480 Speaker 4: out for that are very positive about immigants and immigrants centiment. 928 00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:01,560 Speaker 6: Where Canada Canada. 929 00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:04,120 Speaker 2: I'm I. 930 00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:10,040 Speaker 5: Think Canada, Canada at a really good there's an election 931 00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:11,799 Speaker 5: in Canada would be the main. 932 00:46:11,760 --> 00:46:14,279 Speaker 2: At least it's not viewed negatively by both of the 933 00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:17,359 Speaker 2: mainstream parties. It has been a major plank of but. 934 00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:20,520 Speaker 4: There's a massive amount of worry right across Europe. In 935 00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:22,399 Speaker 4: the United States, but it has got plenty of spare 936 00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:26,080 Speaker 4: room about immigration. I think the problem is Henry Ford 937 00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:29,719 Speaker 4: once said, how come is how come is it that 938 00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:31,360 Speaker 4: when I want a pair of hands, I get a 939 00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:34,040 Speaker 4: human being as well? And we've tended to think of 940 00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:38,280 Speaker 4: immigration just as an addition of labor. But you also 941 00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:40,080 Speaker 4: get people who need to be housed, who need to 942 00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:42,640 Speaker 4: be educated, You need to you know, who put pressure 943 00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:43,680 Speaker 4: on infrastructure. 944 00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:44,239 Speaker 3: And we've not. 945 00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:49,520 Speaker 4: Set a policy agenda that deals with immigration in the round. 946 00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:52,120 Speaker 4: We haven't built the resources. And I think that's true 947 00:46:52,160 --> 00:46:52,960 Speaker 4: right across Europe. 948 00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:56,520 Speaker 2: Business. It's somehow got this great reputation as a paternalist. 949 00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:58,440 Speaker 2: I think it's not resting on that quote. 950 00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:00,560 Speaker 3: He was a paternalist. 951 00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,080 Speaker 1: I mean, one of the things I reflect on after 952 00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:05,680 Speaker 1: Brexit was that the immigration piece of that was about 953 00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:09,040 Speaker 1: controlling immigration. It wasn't necessarily about reducing it. I know, 954 00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:13,280 Speaker 1: like in the sort of squashing of the story of Brexit, 955 00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:16,840 Speaker 1: that's been lost and then you've got BM Boris Johnson 956 00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:19,800 Speaker 1: and others, Michael Gove, they were really, really pro immigration, 957 00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:22,920 Speaker 1: and in the end you have seen a massive increase 958 00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:24,719 Speaker 1: in non EU immigration. 959 00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:26,520 Speaker 3: And that's what we're dealing with right now. 960 00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:30,319 Speaker 1: We're dealing with the debate moving on to be yes, 961 00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:32,759 Speaker 1: freedom of movement was stopped and so that dealt with 962 00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:35,520 Speaker 1: the immigration, but this is something else has taken its place. 963 00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:37,920 Speaker 2: I mean, it's interesting that in the immediate aftermath of 964 00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:40,799 Speaker 2: the referendum it was often pointed out that immigration was 965 00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:42,919 Speaker 2: no longer a big issue. You know, people did feel 966 00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:46,759 Speaker 2: that they dealt with it, but the sheer numbers. And 967 00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:48,640 Speaker 2: I think the way going back to the question of 968 00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:52,200 Speaker 2: why it's felt negatively by parties by people is that 969 00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:55,800 Speaker 2: it has coincided with this squeeze on particularly on local 970 00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:59,920 Speaker 2: government services caused by Brexit of biosterity that was associated 971 00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:03,239 Speaker 2: very strategic decision to cut by a third in real 972 00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:05,840 Speaker 2: times those core local services, which are the ones that 973 00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:11,319 Speaker 2: were most squeezed by unanticipated unplanned immigration. So I think 974 00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:12,319 Speaker 2: that does but you. 975 00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:15,600 Speaker 4: Get a similar rise in anti immigration sentiment in Germany 976 00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:18,120 Speaker 4: without all of these particular. 977 00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:22,840 Speaker 2: Though with a very rapid influx still around AID. So 978 00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:24,399 Speaker 2: I think we've got what we've got. Another question, that's 979 00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:26,840 Speaker 2: actually we can bring Peggy back on the stage with 980 00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:31,640 Speaker 2: I'm told you have a handheld Mike. Yes. How important 981 00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:34,520 Speaker 2: are the running mates for both candidates in this selection, 982 00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:37,800 Speaker 2: given their age and perhaps their need to widen their appeal. 983 00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:42,560 Speaker 2: I mean we are we're waiting avidly to hear who 984 00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:44,400 Speaker 2: President Trump decides. I think he's going to keep us 985 00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:45,160 Speaker 2: waiting a bit longer. 986 00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:48,480 Speaker 7: Yes, well, our expectation is that Trump will announced his 987 00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:52,680 Speaker 7: first presidential nominee at the convention, which is in the 988 00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:56,600 Speaker 7: middle of July. He has run this somewhat similar to 989 00:48:56,640 --> 00:49:00,239 Speaker 7: his Apprentice TV show, where he's kept the number of 990 00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,600 Speaker 7: people hanging. But we are kind of narrowing down to 991 00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:04,400 Speaker 7: a handful left. But I do think it's going to 992 00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:07,320 Speaker 7: be important to your point, Stephanie, because of the age 993 00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:10,759 Speaker 7: of both the men that are running in the US 994 00:49:10,840 --> 00:49:13,040 Speaker 7: presidential election. Then, of course, because there's a lot of 995 00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:16,960 Speaker 7: attention on Biden and Harris being his vice president, would 996 00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:19,440 Speaker 7: be the person who would take over the mantle. So 997 00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:22,040 Speaker 7: I do think it's going to be important to see 998 00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:25,319 Speaker 7: who Trump picks. Does the person balance him out some 999 00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:29,240 Speaker 7: ways in terms of attracting some of the moderate voters. 1000 00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:32,320 Speaker 7: Nikki Haley did win a number of votes in every state, 1001 00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:35,120 Speaker 7: in some cases about thirty percent, and has continued to 1002 00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:38,040 Speaker 7: pick up some votes along the way even after Trump 1003 00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:41,640 Speaker 7: was the designated the nominee. So she's certainly still in 1004 00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:43,880 Speaker 7: the mix there. But there are others like Jade Vance, 1005 00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:47,640 Speaker 7: a Senator from Ohio, Doug Burham, and Senator Tim Scott 1006 00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:48,560 Speaker 7: from South Carolina. 1007 00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:50,280 Speaker 8: So we'll see what happened. 1008 00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:53,520 Speaker 2: There has been some discussion around whether there's already quite 1009 00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:56,719 Speaker 2: a lot of money obviously going into his campaign, but 1010 00:49:56,840 --> 00:50:01,640 Speaker 2: supposedly some high profile in the side dot in the 1011 00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:04,879 Speaker 2: wings waiting to see if there's a vice president who 1012 00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:06,839 Speaker 2: will be as sort of grown up in the room. 1013 00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:08,600 Speaker 2: I don't know whether. I mean, some people would say 1014 00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:10,840 Speaker 2: that's just a they just want to have an excuse 1015 00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:12,239 Speaker 2: to give him more money, and they're going to give 1016 00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:14,000 Speaker 2: him money anyway. But do you think that's true that 1017 00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:16,160 Speaker 2: there's sort of a wall of money waiting there depending 1018 00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:19,360 Speaker 2: on whether he picked someone who's sort of sensible or 1019 00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:23,040 Speaker 2: crazy or more sensible than crazy. 1020 00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:23,920 Speaker 8: I don't. 1021 00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:26,479 Speaker 7: I think it's true that there are some people waiting 1022 00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:30,200 Speaker 7: on the sidelines, particularly in business and on Wall Street, 1023 00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:33,560 Speaker 7: who backed other candidates along the way, are not waiting 1024 00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:35,960 Speaker 7: to see who he picked and putting some pressure on there. 1025 00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:38,239 Speaker 8: I'm not sure it's a wall of money. 1026 00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:40,800 Speaker 7: But I think it's a it's a it's a tangible amount. 1027 00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:43,800 Speaker 6: I think I think there's a considerable amount of money. 1028 00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:48,080 Speaker 5: If if Trump would choose Hailey, for instance, that would 1029 00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:51,120 Speaker 5: be a fig leaf or portuate way to describe that 1030 00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:55,400 Speaker 5: for him. For people business people who are already leaning 1031 00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:58,879 Speaker 5: quietly towards Trump because tax cuts and things, to say, look, 1032 00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:01,560 Speaker 5: he isn't that bad. It's the same argument you heard 1033 00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:04,880 Speaker 5: a bit in twenty sixteen that Donald Trump isn't as 1034 00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:07,439 Speaker 5: extreme as you think. If you could say, look, he's 1035 00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:10,879 Speaker 5: picked Nicki Haley, that would help. It would also help 1036 00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:12,840 Speaker 5: quite a lot that you look at the swing voters, 1037 00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:16,399 Speaker 5: white suburban women, absolutely the foe there and Nicky Haley 1038 00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:18,400 Speaker 5: would help a bit with that. And the question for 1039 00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:21,640 Speaker 5: Trump is how much he prizes loyalty, which tends to 1040 00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:23,800 Speaker 5: be his main thing, and it has to be remember 1041 00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:26,400 Speaker 5: that he did call Nicki Haley bird brain. 1042 00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:30,839 Speaker 6: For most of the campaigns. Whether that is something that 1043 00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:34,680 Speaker 6: he would buy, It's unlikely to be like pen so 1044 00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:36,640 Speaker 6: I thinks to. 1045 00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:38,359 Speaker 8: Say she didn't Nicky Haley. 1046 00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:41,520 Speaker 7: To your point, John, given that that name Colin Nicky 1047 00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:44,680 Speaker 7: Hilly did endorse him much sooner than maybe some people. 1048 00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:45,080 Speaker 8: Would have thought. 1049 00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:47,839 Speaker 5: She's very shrewdly came out and supportive of him during 1050 00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:48,719 Speaker 5: his trial as well. 1051 00:51:50,040 --> 00:51:52,360 Speaker 2: There's a there's a question which is a massive question. 1052 00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:54,320 Speaker 2: So I'm just going to give it. I'm going to 1053 00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:55,640 Speaker 2: give it to John, and you can give a very 1054 00:51:55,680 --> 00:51:59,040 Speaker 2: short answer so that we end more or less on time. 1055 00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:03,160 Speaker 2: But which question would each Oh wait, this is not 1056 00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:04,879 Speaker 2: the one, but I'm going to another one's moved. 1057 00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:05,480 Speaker 6: Oh okay. 1058 00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:09,520 Speaker 2: How will Europe and the UK solve the US China dilemma? 1059 00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:13,640 Speaker 2: I guess the point of choosing will trade trump the 1060 00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:15,879 Speaker 2: security relationship? I guess you could just have a one 1061 00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:19,520 Speaker 2: word answer, We'll trade security with great difficulty. 1062 00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:22,000 Speaker 5: I think in the end there is I think in 1063 00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:25,680 Speaker 5: the end security will matter. And I think what you 1064 00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:29,760 Speaker 5: see and you put any collection of European and American 1065 00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:34,120 Speaker 5: leaders together for all the difficulty and all the kind 1066 00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:36,680 Speaker 5: of madness that is going on. There is a there 1067 00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:40,600 Speaker 5: is a very steadfast and I think this is cross Peggy. 1068 00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:43,640 Speaker 5: I think would agree across both parties. In America there 1069 00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:46,880 Speaker 5: is an absolute certainty that China is now the enemy. 1070 00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:50,360 Speaker 5: China is the thing they need to beat. There is 1071 00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:53,560 Speaker 5: a disagreement in America about how how much you can 1072 00:52:53,600 --> 00:52:56,959 Speaker 5: do to your main allies in trying to meet with 1073 00:52:57,160 --> 00:52:59,719 Speaker 5: some people on the Publican side thinking you have to 1074 00:52:59,719 --> 00:53:03,520 Speaker 5: bush the Europeans in. But in general the idea that 1075 00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:06,879 Speaker 5: there is China and there is Russia and they are 1076 00:53:07,239 --> 00:53:10,239 Speaker 5: set against everything that most of the people in this 1077 00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:14,719 Speaker 5: room stand for. That is a feeling which is much 1078 00:53:14,760 --> 00:53:17,040 Speaker 5: more consciously put forward in America, but I think is 1079 00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:20,719 Speaker 5: also gradually coming to Europe. So from that perspective, I 1080 00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:23,440 Speaker 5: would say that it is security that comes through. 1081 00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:26,319 Speaker 4: One of the remarkable things about America is that we 1082 00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:29,040 Speaker 4: think of it about it as being divided in the 1083 00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:32,480 Speaker 4: polarized country, But when it comes to policy towards China, 1084 00:53:32,520 --> 00:53:36,640 Speaker 4: both the main parties are absolutely united over it, and 1085 00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:39,080 Speaker 4: all sort of serious policy makers are united over it. 1086 00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:42,960 Speaker 4: Trump's line on China has become the line that everybody 1087 00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:46,960 Speaker 4: takes about China now and Europe is slowly catching up. 1088 00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:49,800 Speaker 4: But Europe's going in the same direction because the threat 1089 00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:53,880 Speaker 4: from China it is massive. They're building a lot of bombs, 1090 00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:56,960 Speaker 4: they're investing a lot of money in their defense, and 1091 00:53:57,000 --> 00:54:00,120 Speaker 4: they're aggressively against Western values liberalism. 1092 00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:03,560 Speaker 2: So Adrian, you've confirmed one of the conclusions of your 1093 00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:07,320 Speaker 2: long working partnership and book writing partnership with John Wicklthway 1094 00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:09,040 Speaker 2: that you will never let him have the last word. 1095 00:54:10,360 --> 00:54:14,920 Speaker 2: But that's the end of this special live episode of 1096 00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:19,040 Speaker 2: vhot Nomics or live taping of voter Nomics. Thank you 1097 00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:24,240 Speaker 2: to everyone here for coming. Thank you to Sammasadi, Victoria Wakeley, 1098 00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:27,040 Speaker 2: Eron Levy and lots of other people who've helped put 1099 00:54:27,040 --> 00:54:30,920 Speaker 2: this event together. And to our guests Peggy Collins and 1100 00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:35,120 Speaker 2: Francine Laquire special guest Star Editor in Chief, John Nicklthwaite, 1101 00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:38,480 Speaker 2: and Adrian and Allegra. I'll see you later in the week. 1102 00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:39,239 Speaker 3: I think