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Speaker 1: Cool Zone Media.

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Speaker 2: This is it could happen here? Executive Disorder, our weekly

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Speaker 2: newscast covering what's happening in the White House, the crumbling world,

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Speaker 2: and what it means for you. I'm Garrison Davis to name,

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Speaker 2: joined by James Stout, Mia Wong and Robert Evans. This

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Speaker 2: episode recovering the week February eleventh to February eighteenth. Some

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Speaker 2: small news items up top. Last week, the FDA declined

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Speaker 2: to review a new flu vaccine from Maderna. On February twelfth,

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Speaker 2: Tom Hoeman announced that Operation Metro Surge has concluded and

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Speaker 2: quote significant drawdown has already been underway this week and

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Speaker 2: will continue through the next week.

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Speaker 3: Un quote.

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Speaker 2: Zarmamdani has ordered a new audit of city agencies to

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Speaker 2: ensure compliance with sanctuary city laws in New York and

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Speaker 2: Stephen Colbert says that CBS refused to air his interview

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Speaker 2: with Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Tallerico, citing the FCC's

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Speaker 2: equal time rule. Despite this rule historically having an exception

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Speaker 2: for late night talk show interviews. Last month, FCC Chairman

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Speaker 2: Brendan Carr threatened to enforce the rule regardless of the

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Speaker 2: well established President that excluded talk show interviews. And finally,

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Speaker 2: the owner of a warehouse facility in Hutchins, Texas, so

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Speaker 2: so that they won't sell or lease the building to

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Speaker 2: the federal government as a detention facility. The city's mayor

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Speaker 2: and council all opposed the project. Seizure by eminent domain

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Speaker 2: is still possible.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And I guess with that, there's been campaigns in

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Speaker 4: a couple of other small, traditionally conservative rural areas to

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Speaker 4: not lease facilities for ICE. And it's still a little unclear,

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Speaker 4: and I suspect it's kind of column A columbee. How

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Speaker 4: much of this is, you know, nimbiism and how much

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Speaker 4: of this is resistance to ICE specifically.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, we covered a little of that in the episode

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Speaker 5: I did on Social Circle, which is in Georgia last week.

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Speaker 6: But I think it's fair to say both.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And obviously when I say nimbism, I don't mean

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Speaker 4: it in a bad way.

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Speaker 3: It's bad to have this in your bag.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, right, But like their issue was into moral one

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Speaker 4: in some cases, Yeah.

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Speaker 6: In some cases.

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Speaker 5: I think in some cases it's their little columny, little

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Speaker 5: column B.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's hard to tell.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, And I think like It's worth noting, for instance,

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Speaker 5: hearing in southern California right a town called Dulzura, pretty

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Speaker 5: small town. Maybe you've heard of it from when the

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Speaker 5: KKK did border patrols there back in the day. But

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Speaker 5: the Border patrol are trying to build a big new

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Speaker 5: facility there and have been for some time called New

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Speaker 5: brown Field. There has been local opposition to that among

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Speaker 5: people who are very like people who I have spoken

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Speaker 5: to are otherwise conservative, and like, some of it is, yeah,

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Speaker 5: I don't want this changing the character of the town.

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Speaker 5: I don't want a giant detention center that would eclipse

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Speaker 5: the population of this very small town. Some of it

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Speaker 5: is also like I want them to be locking up

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Speaker 5: people out here. We have a nice life out here,

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Speaker 5: and you know, we have little lots of fields and

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Speaker 5: horses and space, and it seems like it would be

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Speaker 5: really fucked.

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Speaker 6: Up to have people detained out here.

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Speaker 5: Like I think like that that Nimby impulse can sometime

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Speaker 5: like could still combine with even people who are not

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Speaker 5: you know, abolitionists. They don't want to be confronted with

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Speaker 5: the horrors directly next to them.

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Speaker 3: Yep.

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Speaker 4: And we'll talk a little bit more about the numbers

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Speaker 4: like ICE's polling numbers, like how popular they are with Americans.

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Speaker 4: But one of the things we've seen this year is

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Speaker 4: that like they've been shedding support even from Republicans. So like,

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Speaker 4: you know, whatever debate we have here, that's like certainly

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Speaker 4: not a non factor.

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Speaker 6: Definitely.

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Speaker 4: I think it's now time for us to talk about

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Speaker 4: the biggest news story this week, which is that Shilah

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Speaker 4: buff was arrested in New Orleans during Marty Graw after

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Speaker 4: getting into.

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Speaker 3: A series of fights. Who he was in the movie Holes?

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Speaker 7: Oh?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he was also in a different production called Holes,

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Speaker 4: but not based on a book.

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Speaker 2: He was in Holes.

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Speaker 3: I forgot, Yeah, it was in both holes.

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Speaker 6: So I don't know who this person is.

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Speaker 4: I've never Yeah, he's a he's a child actor who

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Speaker 4: is a who was very popular during the early two

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Speaker 4: thousands and has gone. He played the Indiana Jones's son

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Speaker 4: in the reboot event or in the new in the

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Speaker 4: fourth Indiana Jones movie God and then he has He

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Speaker 4: has since kind of fallen into madness and disrepute. He's

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Speaker 4: a spousal abuser. He's repeatedly assaulted people in public. He

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Speaker 4: showed up on that webcam white supremacists were drinking milk

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Speaker 4: on once for reasons that are still to this day

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Speaker 4: somewhat unclear to me. And he got into a fight

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Speaker 4: in Marty Gras, which is just just just a fun

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Speaker 4: little bit of news. My favorite part of this is

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Speaker 4: that he assaulted a guy. He was repeatedly restrained by

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Speaker 4: members of a bar, and whenever they would let him

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Speaker 4: go because they just wanted him to leave they didn't

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Speaker 4: want to call the cops, he would then continue to

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Speaker 4: attack the guy he was assaulting until they forced they

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Speaker 4: were forced to call the police and have him arrested.

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Speaker 4: And I've been in Marty Gras over the last few days,

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Speaker 4: and let me tell you, getting arrested by the police

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Speaker 4: during Marty Gras not easy. I don't have a lot

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Speaker 4: to say about that other than I was surprised by

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Speaker 4: the number of very political floats that I saw, particularly

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Speaker 4: at least one that was entirely paper mache ice guy's

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Speaker 4: in a very like, non flattering way. There were a

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Speaker 4: lot of like costumes and a number of like references

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Speaker 4: on floats. There's a couple of pretty hideous caricatures of

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Speaker 4: Trump on floats, and they all got like a widely

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Speaker 4: positive reaction and I find this interesting, and I'm bringing

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Speaker 4: this up because the research that I've largely been doing

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Speaker 4: for the EED this week is trying to get a

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Speaker 4: handle on, like where Americans are polling right now and

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Speaker 4: how popular or unpopular is the president and his agenda,

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Speaker 4: because like we see articles every week about like Trump's

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Speaker 4: polls hit a new low, or the most recent article

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Speaker 4: that I think it's gallup is no longer going to

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Speaker 4: be doing presidential like popularity polling. But I wanted to

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Speaker 4: get a look at, like how the actual parties and

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Speaker 4: their agendas are holding up. And it's a pretty shocking

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Speaker 4: gap between I mean September October, like fall of last

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Speaker 4: year and today. So in September of twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 4: per Yugov, the Democratic Party had about a sixty four

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Speaker 4: percent unfavorable So like sixty four percent of polled Americans

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Speaker 4: didn't like the Democratic Party and a little less than

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Speaker 4: thirty four percent of Americans had a favorable opinion of

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Speaker 4: the Democratic Party. And if you actually look at the

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Speaker 4: graphs for those that you GOV presents, they're basically making

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Speaker 4: like a wineglass shape, right, So what that means is

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Speaker 4: unfavorability is moving up and favorability is moving down rapidly,

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Speaker 4: like at the time at which those bulls were taken

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Speaker 4: in September of last year. Meanwhile, the Republican Party, neither

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Speaker 4: party was popular, but the Republican Party the wineglass shape

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Speaker 4: was a lot more muted, more like a shot glass.

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Speaker 4: Fifty five point four percent of Americans pulled by Yugov

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Speaker 4: expressed a unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party, at about

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Speaker 4: forty two point three expressed a favorable opinion. You can

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Speaker 4: compare this to October twenty twenty five polling by Pew Research,

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Speaker 4: which showed something similar. Sixty four percent of Americans were

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Speaker 4: frustrated with the Republican Party, Seventy five percent of Americans

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Speaker 4: reported being frustrated with the Democratic Party. Forty nine percent

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Speaker 4: of Americans poll replied that they were angry at the

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Speaker 4: Republican Party, Fifty percent reported being angry at the Democratic Party. Similarly, Republicans,

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Speaker 4: thirty six cent of Americans felt hopeful about the Republican Party,

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Speaker 4: twenty eight percent of Americans felt hopeful about the Democratic Party,

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Speaker 4: and then twenty seven percent of Americans were proud of

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Speaker 4: the Republican Party sixteen percent Democratic Party.

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Speaker 3: Those are pretty bleak numbers.

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Speaker 4: For the Democrats coming in the fall of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 4: Like that is kind of black pilling stuff, right. This

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Speaker 4: was in the fall of last year, pretty rapid change

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Speaker 4: fro where things had been about four years ago. For example,

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Speaker 4: in September of twenty twenty one, about sixty four percent

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Speaker 4: of Americans had expressed frustration with the Dimmerocratic Party as

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Speaker 4: opposed to seventy five percent four years later.

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Speaker 3: So that's all fall of last year.

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Speaker 4: Now, between when the polls that I read to you

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Speaker 4: came out and now we've had a cup several major

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Speaker 4: things happen. One of the more significant was the long shutdown,

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Speaker 4: which was disasters for Republican favorability and for Trump's own favorability.

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Speaker 4: And we also had a significant I mean, obviously in

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Speaker 4: LA and in Chicago. Ice had been doing very terrible

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Speaker 4: and very like you know, I guess I should say,

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Speaker 4: like documented crimes, like horrible things that were spread widely

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Speaker 4: on social media. But that has also accelerated massively in

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Speaker 4: the first couple of weeks of twenty twenty six. And

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Speaker 4: what we're seeing now in more recent polls taken in

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Speaker 4: late January and from anywhere from like kind of early

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Speaker 4: January to late January and early February is a significant reversal.

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Speaker 4: So NBC News's Decision desk collated a bunch of different

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Speaker 4: polls like Daily Mail, Marquette, Wall Street, Journal, Yahoo, you

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Speaker 4: go of Fox News, Emerson, and over the last month

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Speaker 4: or so, you're looking at an average spread of all

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Speaker 4: of these polls of about negative nineteen point nine percent

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Speaker 4: favorability for the Republican Party and about negative twelve point

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Speaker 4: eight percent favorability for the Democratic Party. So when you

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Speaker 4: think back to those numbers from last fall, that's a

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Speaker 4: pretty dramatic change, and it kind of correlates to a

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Speaker 4: dramatic change in Trump's own favorability, which has gone down

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Speaker 4: by about twelve percent per the average of those polls

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Speaker 4: that kind of aggregated by NBC Newsdesk.

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Speaker 3: Their article notes quote.

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Speaker 4: Ipso's polling released in late January found fifty one percent

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Speaker 4: of Americans say Trump's immigration policy is on the wrong track. Amazingly,

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Speaker 4: just a year ago, American said Republicans have a better plan, policy,

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Speaker 4: and approach than Democrats on immigration by a twenty two

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Speaker 4: point margin. Now that advantage is down to five points.

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Speaker 4: So while Trump is underwater with immigration his and the

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Speaker 4: Republican Party. These policies towards immigration are still more popular

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Speaker 4: than the Democratic Party's responses to immigration, but they have

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Speaker 4: also collapsed in terms of like. The gap between those

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Speaker 4: two things, again, twenty two point margin to a five

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Speaker 4: point lead is a is a pretty dramatic narrowing. And

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Speaker 4: one of the things that has come along with this

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Speaker 4: is an increasing agreement among Americans that ICE has not

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Speaker 4: only gone too far, but needs to be if not

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Speaker 4: abolished entirely, then severely curtailed, and a lot of Americans

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Speaker 4: a shocking amount currently support abolishing ICE entirely. A PBS

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Speaker 4: News NPR Merist poll released recently found that a majority

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Speaker 4: of Americans feel ICE is making the country less safe

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Speaker 4: and has gone too far. Six in ten Americans disapprove

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Speaker 4: of what ICE is doing, only about three in ten

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Speaker 4: approve of it, So by a two to one margin,

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Speaker 4: Americans disapprove ICE's operations to approve of their behavior. This

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Speaker 4: is a very like political breakdown. About ninety one percent

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Speaker 4: of Democrats disapprove of ICE, sixty cent of Independence disapprove

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Speaker 4: of ICE. Meanwhile, seventy three percent of Republicans approve of ICE.

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Speaker 4: But even that number has dropped fairly recently.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 4: In fact, the percentage of Americans that believe Ice hasn't

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Speaker 4: gone far enough dropped from eighteen percent to twelve percent

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Speaker 4: over the last year, and only about twenty two percent

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Speaker 4: of Americans feel like Ice is doing a good job

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Speaker 4: compared to twenty six percent of Americans a year ago.

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Speaker 4: So we're seeing like pretty unequivocally Americans rejecting the Republican

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Speaker 4: tactics on immigration, and they tend to be blaming Ice

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Speaker 4: for it, right Like. That's one of the things that's

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Speaker 4: most interesting to me is that both Ice and President

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Speaker 4: Trump have seen the most dramatic collapses in public support,

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Speaker 4: which suggests to me that, like, Americans are kind of

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Speaker 4: tying these two things together. Currently, per Yugov, as of

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Speaker 4: January twenty fourth, twenty twenty six, more Americans support abolishing

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Speaker 4: ICE than oppose it. Now, this has not mean a

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Speaker 4: majority of American support abolishing ICE. I've seen some people

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Speaker 4: mistate that forty six percent of US adults, as pulled

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Speaker 4: by Yugov, somewhat or strongly support abolishing Ice, twelve percent

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Speaker 4: are not sure, forty one percent somewhat or strongly oppose

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Speaker 4: abolishing ice.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's still pretty striking.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, say a plurality, right, Maybe now would be a

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Speaker 5: good time to talk a little bit about like where Democrats,

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Speaker 5: different Democrats are, different wings of the Democrat Party are

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Speaker 5: on abolishing ice, because I think it's one of these

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Speaker 5: areas where like the further up the party you go,

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Speaker 5: the more detached from that public opinion you get. So

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Speaker 5: maybe you will start the Keem Jeffries, Democrat leader in

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Speaker 5: the House, hit him on the Joy Reid Show on

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Speaker 5: the topic of abolishing ice.

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Speaker 7: Why not lead and say abolish ice? Because what you're

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Speaker 7: telling us is you want our taxpayer dollars to pay

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Speaker 7: for a lawless, massed armed agency to continue terrorizing our cities.

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Speaker 7: And I'm trying to figure out how you, as a

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Speaker 7: leader can be telling Americans that their taxpayer dollars should

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Speaker 7: be going twice, I don't.

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Speaker 8: Understand anything that you just said when I've moved English, well,

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Speaker 8: I don't understand anything that you've just said to me

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Speaker 8: when I've made clear that taxpayer dollars should be used

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Speaker 8: to make life more affordable for the American people, not

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Speaker 8: brutaliz or kill them. That's the whole reason we're in

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Speaker 8: this fight right now. That's the whole reason the DHS

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Speaker 8: is getting ready to shut down.

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Speaker 3: That's abolish abolish ice.

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Speaker 8: That is a listen. I'm going to use the language

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Speaker 8: that I want to use. You can use the language

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Speaker 8: that you want to use.

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Speaker 5: You can see Jeffries visibly kind of tense when the

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Speaker 5: phrase abolish ice is used, right like, he's yeah, he

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Speaker 5: wants nothing to do with it. The immediate responses is

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Speaker 5: to go to affordability. I do want to note that

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Speaker 5: when he was previously asked if he would use the

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Speaker 5: appropriations process to rain in eyes, he did exactly the

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Speaker 5: same thing.

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Speaker 7: But why not use the appropriations as to rain in ice, leadergen.

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Speaker 5: For an operation?

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Speaker 9: No, what I'm what I'm focused on right now, Chad,

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Speaker 9: is to make life better for the American people by

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Speaker 9: extending the affordable care and tax credits, which, by the way,

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Speaker 9: a lot of folks in this institution believe was not possible.

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Speaker 9: But Democrats made clear before the government was shut down

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Speaker 9: that we were in this fight until we win this

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Speaker 9: fight on behalf of the American lower the cost, save

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Speaker 9: health care.

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Speaker 3: That's our objection.

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Speaker 5: Why there, he does the same thing, right, he goes

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Speaker 5: back to affordability, which is something that Democrats have done

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Speaker 5: for the last year and a half right when asked

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Speaker 5: to take a strong leadership stance and ice, far too

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Speaker 5: much of their leadership has instead like tried to deflect

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Speaker 5: to affordabilit I do want to note that, like they

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Speaker 5: are now doing exactly what he was deflecting from there, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 5: and that was only less than a month ago.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting because it's like this cowardice on like specific

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Speaker 2: terms and messaging. Yeah, even though they are using the

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Speaker 2: provisions process to try to rain an ice like that

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Speaker 2: is that, Yeah, that is what they are doing now.

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Speaker 2: But it's like a complete complete cowardice or actually like yeah,

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Speaker 2: trying to like use like public pressure to your advantage

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Speaker 2: at the moment, Like.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, he's doing the thing and almost like failing to

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Speaker 5: It's not that he's doing the thing, you know, as

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Speaker 5: many of us would wish he did, but like he's

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Speaker 5: failing to take the easy win. Yeah, like because of

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Speaker 5: like you say this like institutional cowardice or like these

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Speaker 5: it's like there's some kind of red line rhetorically for

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Speaker 5: jeffrees and other leadership Democrats that they will not cross.

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Speaker 5: And I have to believe that some of that comes

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Speaker 5: from what they see as like the long legacy of

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Speaker 5: twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: Or like perceptions of the Democratic Party is like too

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Speaker 2: far to the left, is too extreme or something.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, they that, like specifically the perception that they like

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Speaker 5: attempted to abolish the institution of policing, which was not

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Speaker 5: really anything that they had that was not in their

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Speaker 5: policy platform. Right, they were not Democrat leaders saying We're

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Speaker 5: going to do away with the cops. In fact, Biden

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Speaker 5: was talking about how we need to fund the police,

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Speaker 5: not defund the police in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 10: Right.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, But nonetheless, like that, there seems to be this real,

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Speaker 5: like it's very hard for them to break that rhetorical boundary.

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Speaker 5: It's not entirely just jeffreyes on this. Seven Dems cross

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Speaker 5: party lines in late January to vote for a DHS

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Speaker 5: funding bill. So we got Representative Henry Quella of Texas.

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Speaker 10: Worst the worst Democratic congressman.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, shit, fucking.

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Speaker 5: Texas Deems hit different and like specifically like Rio Grande

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Speaker 5: Valley Democrats are a different breed.

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Speaker 10: God, it sucks so much.

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Speaker 5: There's Jared Golden of Maine, Mary Glousen camp Perez Washington,

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Speaker 5: Laura Gillen, Don Davis of North Carolina, Lauri Gillan is

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Speaker 5: New York, Tom Swosey of New York, and Vicente Gonzales

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Speaker 5: of Texas.

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Speaker 6: This is not it.

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Speaker 5: There's not a position that is unique to Jeffrey's right, Like,

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Speaker 5: this's this idea that like, perhaps there needs to be

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Speaker 5: some reform of ICE, but bit abolishing it would go

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Speaker 5: far too far. Other Democrats have introduced an act which

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Speaker 5: would essentially move funding from ICE to local law enforcement.

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Speaker 5: So it would take that seventy five billion dollar budget

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Speaker 5: allocation to ICE and move it to local cops.

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Speaker 6: Right.

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Speaker 5: This is called the Providing Useful Budgets for Localities to

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Speaker 5: invest in cops by substituting six appropriations from federal enforcement

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Speaker 5: to yield results Act.

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Speaker 11: Holy shit, Now, wonder these people's favorabilities like negative onondrillion.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, good word.

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Speaker 5: It's what we call a backronym in that they have

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Speaker 5: started with the word public safety and then made a

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Speaker 5: really horrendous attempt turning that into an acronym. There is

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Speaker 5: also like a wing of the Democratic Party right there

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Speaker 5: on the left, which is more forthright about abolishing ICE.

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Speaker 5: His clip of AOC talking about why I should be abolished.

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Speaker 5: And this is at an event in Queen's Yeah.

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Speaker 12: ICE is a very young agency relative to many others.

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Speaker 12: Enforcements of people who committed crimes that were undocumented or

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Speaker 12: had visas used to be under the Department of Justice.

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Speaker 12: And in the Department of Justice, if someone wants to

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Speaker 12: come to your house, you need a judge. You mean,

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Speaker 12: you need an entire judicial process, You need a warrant

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Speaker 12: to ensure that your constitutional liberties would take are respected.

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Speaker 12: You need all of it. What they did was that

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Speaker 12: they took ICE out, well, they took Immigration enforcement out

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Speaker 12: of the DOJ, which had very tight rains on what

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Speaker 12: you're allowed to do. They take that they put it

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Speaker 12: into this new agency that they put at the time,

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Speaker 12: which is a Department of Homeland Security. First of all,

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Speaker 12: in what world does FEMA belong under the same umbrella

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Speaker 12: as ICE. It makes no sense at all, no sense

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Speaker 12: at all. And what happened is that once you take

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Speaker 12: that enforcement piece out of that agency, they then start

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Speaker 12: to answer to nobody. Even though I technically, statutorily their

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Speaker 12: responsibility is just supposed to be on immigration enforcement. They

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Speaker 12: are now expanding their data collection to US citizens, to

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Speaker 12: everyone on this soil.

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Speaker 2: They are waiving.

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Speaker 12: These phones around and saying that they're implementing facial recognition

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Speaker 12: technology to a centralized database. We have to fight this

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Speaker 12: tooth and nail. We need to defund it. We need

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Speaker 12: to not allow this to be collected by private companies.

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Speaker 12: A lot of what we need to do is not

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Speaker 12: just revisit Session seven oh two. We need to abolish ICE,

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Speaker 12: and we need to have complemented.

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Speaker 13: Changes block that up.

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Speaker 2: One thing I do want to note about her statements

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Speaker 2: is that during the appropriations process, she did give statements

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Speaker 2: about how she was pushing to defund ICE as an agency,

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Speaker 2: and this did cause a reaction from some i'll call

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Speaker 2: them over the online leftists, claiming that it had changed

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Speaker 2: positions from wanting to abolish to defund, that this is

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Speaker 2: some sort of slide. And then she then had to

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Speaker 2: follow up with saying, well, currently, the way to restrict

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Speaker 2: ICE and lead to abolishing it is through defunding it.

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Speaker 2: So that's what we're doing through the appropriations process. No,

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Speaker 2: my position has not changed. I still think think the

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Speaker 2: agency should be abolished.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, there's a broad issue we had, which was that

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Speaker 4: at the end of twenty twenty, as a result of

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Speaker 4: all of the federal agents that were in American cities

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Speaker 4: and had been video brutalizing citizens and places like Portland,

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Speaker 4: there was a lot of anger about DHS.

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Speaker 3: In particular.

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Speaker 4: I wrote a column for Business Insider about like, look,

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Speaker 4: this agency is going to remain under Biden, but if

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Speaker 4: we don't cut the legs out from under the entire agency,

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Speaker 4: it's basically set up to be the president's secret police.

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Speaker 4: And broadly speaking, the Democrats didn't do anything to stop it.

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Speaker 4: But I also, like, I guess where I am on

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Speaker 4: this is. I think it's kind of counterproductive at this point.

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Speaker 4: The failures of the Biden administration, I think are quite

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Speaker 4: manifest in what the Trump administration is doing right now.

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Speaker 4: And what I want to focus on is the fact

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Speaker 4: that we've had, in the space of several months, Americans

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Speaker 4: become more than twice as likely to support abolishing ICE,

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Speaker 4: which is both a fragile coalition because the fact that

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Speaker 4: the number has changed so rapidly means that it could

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Speaker 4: potentially change back. Like, I don't feel solid in counting

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Speaker 4: on that to be the permanent state of affairs, but

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Speaker 4: it introduces an opportunity, and it's an opportunity to build

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Speaker 4: support to destroy this agency. And I think it's probably

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Speaker 4: too much to hope for DHS as a whole and

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Speaker 4: anything close to the near term. But the fact that

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Speaker 4: during the Biden administration so much got punted on, I

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Speaker 4: don't know, like we're past that. We have the opportunity, now,

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Speaker 4: we have the anger now I do I retain my worry,

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Speaker 4: And I would say almost one of my biggest political

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Speaker 4: fears is that twenty twenty six and twenty twenty eight

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Speaker 4: go well for Democrats. They do again what happened under

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Speaker 4: the Biden administration.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, and they leave all these things intact.

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Speaker 4: But one of the big differences that we have, at

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Speaker 4: least right now is that at no point was abolishing

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Speaker 4: ICE polling the way it is right now during the

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Speaker 4: Biden or the first Trump administration. Yeah, And I think

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Speaker 4: we have to take advantage of that. There's momentum right now,

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Speaker 4: like this is a.

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Speaker 5: Crucial time, not just like we're talking here in terms

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Speaker 5: of like abolishing ICE moves us back to the two

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Speaker 5: thousand and three norm right, Like what it doesn't do

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Speaker 5: is fixed the fundamental issue here, which is that there

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Speaker 5: are not legal pathways for people to come to the

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Speaker 5: US and there need to be and like I think

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Speaker 5: like now is the time for people who are involved

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Speaker 5: in democratic politics right to agitate for like a genuine

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Speaker 5: reform package. I don't think we will ever see support

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Speaker 5: like this again for legalization of undocumented people, for Dreamers right,

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Speaker 5: or people who are impacted by deferred action for childhood arrivals,

441
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 5: which is a policy that it came to place under Obama.

442
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 6: Like, now is the time for substantial immigration reform.

443
00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,160
Speaker 5: I say this knowing that this will not fix a problem.

444
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,160
Speaker 5: Like more than most people you know, I have seen

445
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:07,360
Speaker 5: the horrors of our immigration system firsthand, but like there

446
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 5: is a moment right now that we could change things

447
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:15,199
Speaker 5: for the better. And I share roberts worry that if

448
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 5: Democrats get like an easy win even in the midterms,

449
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 5: that we might not get that. And like what we

450
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,400
Speaker 5: saw rounder Biden was a big pointer to what we're

451
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 5: seeing under Trump that essentially the DHS was almost impossible

452
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 5: for him to control. Yeah, in that he acquiesced to oads,

453
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 5: he is still responsible for them, like the buckstops with him.

454
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 6: He's president.

455
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 5: I'm not certain that he planned it, but nonetheless it

456
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 5: continued to happen for months and months and months out

457
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 5: of his presidency, right, Like, it was very obvious the

458
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 5: way this was going to go if we got another

459
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:53,439
Speaker 5: Trump presidency, and if they do that again, we're just

460
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 5: setting the table for things to get worse again.

461
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 3: Right.

462
00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 4: And I think James the task before is twofold, right,

463
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 4: because on one hand, we have to reform the system

464
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:09,400
Speaker 4: by which people gain legal acceptance to live in this country,

465
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 4: and that also includes I think there needs to be

466
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 4: a push for some sort of federal law that will

467
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 4: make it impossible or at least much harder, to reverse

468
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 4: these acceptances and to do things like nullify or cancel

469
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 4: green cards and permanent residency like the administration is doing

470
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 4: right now. Like both, we need increased pathways and we

471
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 4: need increased resilience to promise people that, hey, if you

472
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 4: go through all of these hoops to become a legal

473
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 4: resident or a citizen or whatever, it can't just get

474
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 4: pulled away the next time a Republican wins office.

475
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 6: Yeah.

476
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:47,640
Speaker 4: And then on the other side of things, you have

477
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 4: this vast, uncontrollable militant agency built as the armed wing

478
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 4: of the presidency that has to be destroyed because it

479
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 4: can't exist a democracy yeah, it's no compatible and then

480
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 4: you have I mean I would extend that to DHS

481
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 4: as a whole. But it's my same issue with like,

482
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:09,919
Speaker 4: if we can defund ICE right now, I'm always in

483
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 4: favor of taking away some of their money.

484
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 3: That's not the extent of what I think should happen

485
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 3: to ICE.

486
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 4: It's just like it's a salient, right, Like you have

487
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 4: to look at it that way. Like it it would

488
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 4: be as if you're you're like, well, it's not worth

489
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 4: winning the Battle of Stalingrad because that doesn't give us

490
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 4: Berlein It's well, but these are steps, you know, you

491
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 4: try to damage and reduce the agency's power and ability

492
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 4: to function. Yeah, while you're continuing. And I guess the

493
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,880
Speaker 4: worry about that too is that if you do defund ICE,

494
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 4: if they because we've had some Trump has made a

495
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 4: couple comments about worrying that, like we need to reduce

496
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 4: kind of the tempo at which ICE is operating because

497
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 4: it's bad for them.

498
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,120
Speaker 3: So that is kind of one of my concerns.

499
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 4: That maybe if they, if they pull back on the

500
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 4: throttle a little bit, the rage will decline enough that

501
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 4: there's not this kind of motivation and behind abolishing but

502
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 4: I feel like that's just a fear you kind of

503
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 4: have to eat, as opposed to not trying to stop

504
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 4: and reduce the harms the agency does in the immediate

505
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 4: term while you're working long term for abolition.

506
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I.

507
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,360
Speaker 4: Did want to talk a little about other numbers, because

508
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 4: immigration is obviously a major issue for American voters. It's

509
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 4: an issue people pick who they're going to vote for

510
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 4: the presidency on. It's one of them, but it's not

511
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 4: the main one. As a general rule, throughout most of

512
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 4: modern political history, the kind of the top issue for

513
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 4: Americans is the economy. And if the economy is bad,

514
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 4: it is very hard for your party to stay in power.

515
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 4: If the economy is good, it is a lot easier

516
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,439
Speaker 4: for your party to stay in power. Right, Like, these

517
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 4: are fairly basic facts of political life in the United States,

518
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 4: always with some caveats, but that it bears looking at

519
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 4: how do Americans feel about the economy and who do

520
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 4: they blame for the fact that they feel badly about

521
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 4: the economy? And per Politico, which carried out a recent survey,

522
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 4: about forty six percent of Americans say the cost of

523
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 4: living is the worst they can remember it ever being

524
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,439
Speaker 4: This includes thirty seven percent of people who voted for

525
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 4: Trump in twenty twenty four, and Americans pretty like significantly

526
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 4: agree that this is a Trump problem. Inflation, the fact

527
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 4: that they can't afford things is on him because he's

528
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:27,719
Speaker 4: the present. Again, forty six percent of Americans say it's

529
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 4: Trump's economy and his administration is responsible for rising costs.

530
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 4: And this is true both among Republicans and Democrats, which

531
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 4: is very interesting to me. A percentage of Americans, based

532
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 4: on the vote in the twenty four election, fifty three

533
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 4: percent of Harris voters in twenty twenty four say the

534
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 4: cost of living is the worst they've seen it, and again,

535
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 4: thirty seven percent of Trump voters in twenty twenty four

536
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 4: feel the same way. So that is it's an example

537
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 4: of something that we've talked about and wondered about on

538
00:28:58,040 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 4: this show a lot, which is like how much.

539
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 3: Does reac break through the fever swamps? And this is

540
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 3: suggesting that, like to a pretty solid degree, that actually

541
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 3: Trump is I still think he's got a floor of

542
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 3: somewhere around thirty percent of Americans who will follow him

543
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 3: into the pits of hell, even if it means shoveling

544
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 3: themselves into it, but that number used to be like

545
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 3: forty percent, right, and it does seem to be declining.

546
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 4: This is being treated as a five alarm fire among

547
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 4: the Trump White House, which is interesting me for a

548
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 4: couple of reasons. You know, anytime you talk with especially

549
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 4: people them left about but also increasingly a lot of

550
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 4: Democrats about the midterm elections in the twenty twenty eight elections,

551
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 4: I think you have to deal with his people saying,

552
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 4: but are there going to be elections?

553
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 3: Right?

554
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 4: And you know it's I don't dismiss those concerns out

555
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 4: of hand, obviously in part because the administration is talking

556
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 4: right now about having ice agents and polling places, right,

557
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 4: you do have to acknowledge that as a concern. But

558
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 4: at the same time, I think if you're looking at

559
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 4: this rationally, you have to note that the Trump administration

560
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 4: internally is acting as if there will be elections and

561
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 4: that those will be competitive elections. They are worried about

562
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 4: the economy, they are worried about their polling, and they

563
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 4: are taking actions to try to mitigate the worries that

564
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 4: they have, which they wouldn't be doing if they were

565
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 4: already sure there's never going to be another election. Right,

566
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 4: and that is important to remember. It doesn't mean there's

567
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 4: not a danger, doesn't mean they won't try shit if

568
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 4: they lose, but it does mean that they are treating

569
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 4: these political issues as political issues that they have to

570
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 4: deal with via messaging. There is an article in Fox

571
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 4: News recently about Trump's team huddling to decide on midterm messaging.

572
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 3: I'm going to quote from that now.

573
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 4: The meeting, which was confirmed to Fox News by sources

574
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 4: familiar with the gathering, was hosted by White House Chief

575
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 4: of Staff Susie Wilds and Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair,

576
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 4: who is steering Trump's political strategy. According to sources, the

577
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 4: message during a slide presentation by chief polster and Chief

578
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 4: Strategists and strategist Toorney Fabrizio was that the economy will

579
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 4: be the top issue in the minds of voters, and

580
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 4: the White House needs to spotlight its efforts on easy affordability.

581
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 4: The meeting was held as the GOP ares to defend

582
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 4: their control of the Senate and their razor thin House

583
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 4: majority in November's midterm elections. Republicans are also dealing with

584
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 4: the presidents continued underwater approval ratings and a slew of surveys,

585
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 4: including the latest Fox and News pulling that indicates Americans

586
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 4: are pessimistic about the economy, and publicly, the administration's claim

587
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:22,719
Speaker 4: is that Americans are happy with the economy. The economy

588
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 4: is the best it's ever been. Look At how good

589
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 4: the doo is. It's over fifty thousand, right, Yeah, But

590
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 4: everything we're hearing internally, like all of the reports that

591
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 4: from people inside the administration about like what's going on

592
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 4: day to day, is that they're wide awake and worried

593
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 4: over the fact that their economic numbers are completely fucking

594
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 4: dog shit. Now, what does this mean for the midterm elections, Well,

595
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 4: very few people that I have found who are like

596
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 4: credible analysts don't expect the Democrats to retake the House, right.

597
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 2: Meaning, most credible analysts do think the Dems are likely

598
00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 2: to retake the House.

599
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 4: That said, there's a fairly few people who expect a

600
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 4: twenty eighteen style Democratic blowout, among like the professional bull

601
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 4: watchers and stuff, which is, if you remember the Democrats

602
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 4: flipped about forty one seats. There's a couple of reasons

603
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 4: for this, right, And I found a good article in

604
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 4: The Hill that's kind of analyzing like why we shouldn't

605
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 4: be expecting some of the exuberants that you're seeing on

606
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 4: social media about like early elections and how bad Trump's

607
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 4: numbers are, is maybe making people overly optimistic about like

608
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 4: flipping all of Congress to Democratic control, which is not

609
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 4: currently the likeliest outcome. And there's a couple of reasons

610
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 4: for this. One of them is that, as unpopular as

611
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 4: Trump is, and I've hit on that quite a lot,

612
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 4: the Democratic Party's overall favorability is at about thirty three percent,

613
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 4: which is nine points lower than the Republican Party's favorability

614
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 4: and you know, depending on the poll, five to ten

615
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 4: points lower than Trump's own favorability. This is based on

616
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 4: a Marquette Law School pol Right, So Trump is very unpopular,

617
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 4: so with the Republican Party, but people don't like the Democrats,

618
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 4: the Democratic Party as a whole. People like individual Democrats,

619
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 4: a lot of people like their Congress person, a lot

620
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 4: of people like whoever it is they want to see

621
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 4: as the presidential candidate. You know, you can look at

622
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 4: you know, you've got folks who really like Mamdani or

623
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 4: really like pritzkerp But as a whole, voters, including Democratic

624
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 4: voters don't feel very positively towards the Democratic Party, in

625
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 4: many cases more negatively still than they feel about the

626
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 4: Republican Party that started to turn around. But if you're

627
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 4: kind of hoping that there's going to be like a

628
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 4: full on switch that makes it immediately possible to successfully

629
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 4: impeach President Trump, that is extraordinarily unlikely to come in

630
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 4: twenty twenty six, right, which doesn't mean that it's unlikely

631
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 4: to have a good result. Republicans losing control of Congress

632
00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 4: is a good result.

633
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 3: Right. There's just a lot less. I mean, there's a

634
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 3: lot less.

635
00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 4: Even if you're kind of taking the unfavorability of the

636
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 4: Democratic Party out of it, there's a lot fewer seats

637
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 4: up for grabs right now. In twenty eighteen, and when that,

638
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 4: you know, the Democrats flipped forty one seats. There were

639
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 4: seventy five competitive races this year. Heading into the midterms,

640
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 4: there were only eighteen. Right, there's a lot less that

641
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 4: can flip. And I don't think Republicans are likely to

642
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:23,720
Speaker 4: lose control of the Senate, right, And the polling shows

643
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 4: things being pretty razor thin there. Democrats have about a

644
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:30,879
Speaker 4: four percent advantage according to Economist. You GOV polling right

645
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,840
Speaker 4: now in the congressional midterms, and there's a three point

646
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 4: margin of error, so you're looking at like a lead,

647
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 4: but not enough of one for a complete fucking blowout. Right,

648
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 4: there has been some more positive data, like kind of

649
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,880
Speaker 4: right before we came on to record this, like I

650
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 4: looked at some charts by Focal Data that was kind

651
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,319
Speaker 4: of breaking down midterm voting and tensioned by groups and

652
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 4: looking at like likely voters, And this is always kind

653
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 4: of a little bit like voodoo, right in terms of

654
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 4: how you're trying to, like, well, how likely is a

655
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 4: likely voter and how do we like factor in realistically

656
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,839
Speaker 4: are they going to show up anyway if you're kind

657
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:12,919
Speaker 4: of assuming that like people who self report as likely

658
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 4: voters will only actually vote about a third of the time.

659
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,720
Speaker 4: Per this study, Democrats are ahead by about seven points

660
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,439
Speaker 4: in a generic house ballot. So you know, that's kind

661
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,280
Speaker 4: of where we are right now. I think we're looking

662
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 4: at a midterm season that's going to go well for

663
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 4: the Democrats, But I don't think we're looking at a

664
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 4: midterm season that delivers us from the Republican Party being

665
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 4: able to ram through legislation. I think our kind of

666
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 4: best case scenario is one in which they have to

667
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 4: give major concessions because the Democrats have you know, flipped

668
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:52,399
Speaker 4: the House at the very least like.

669
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 3: And that's that's big. But I don't think.

670
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 4: I don't think Trump's going to get impeached starting January

671
00:35:58,440 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 4: of next year.

672
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 11: The one thing I will say about the polling data

673
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 11: is that so obviously Democrats tend to perform better in

674
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 11: special elections because to vote in a special election, you

675
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 11: have to be a higher interest voter. And that also

676
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 11: special election cycles get driven by immediate like anger over stuff,

677
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 11: and there's a bunch of different factors that dry special

678
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 11: election turn out. And also the Democrats have been absolutely

679
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 11: obliterating the Republicans in all the special elections that have

680
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 11: been happening recently, or even in the cases where they're lose,

681
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 11: they're losing by very small margins in places where Trump

682
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 11: was wining blowouts. Yeah, so I think if you want

683
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 11: to be optimistic, I think that's the case for optimism.

684
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 11: But also, yeah, like we're not going to have all

685
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 11: of our problems magically solved by the mid terms.

686
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, yes, to specify on that, what you were saying,

687
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 4: there was a special election in Tennessee and Republican Matt

688
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 4: Van Epps beat the Democrat often Bane by nine points,

689
00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:00,439
Speaker 4: but Trump had won in twenty twenty five, were there

690
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 4: by twenty two points.

691
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:04,840
Speaker 11: Yeah, and like like a few we talked about this

692
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:06,319
Speaker 11: on the show. But like last year there was there

693
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:08,320
Speaker 11: was an election in like a special election in western

694
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 11: Iowa that Trump had won by double digits and the

695
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:12,360
Speaker 11: Democrats won by double digits.

696
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 6: And that kind of thing shouldn't be happening.

697
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 11: It sure shouldn't, No it is, And yeah, you know,

698
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,280
Speaker 11: so that's that's the optimistic case.

699
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 4: And hey, like I've just come in saying like, hey,

700
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:29,839
Speaker 4: don't expect Congress to be completely flipped, but like, you know,

701
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 4: it's the times are crazy. Who knows what else? Who

702
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:34,359
Speaker 4: knows how many more people Ice is going to murder?

703
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 4: Who knows like what other like how bad the economy's

704
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 4: going to get.

705
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:41,240
Speaker 6: We might have invaded Canada by then, Like who knows.

706
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 4: Anything's on the table, anything's still on the table. We're

707
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 4: just kind of looking at shit from February.

708
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, and some of this shit will depend on

709
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 5: like what atrocities they commit in the weeks and days

710
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 5: before the midterm election. Right then, I think we see

711
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 5: so around certain the killing of Rene Good, the killing

712
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 5: of Alex pretty right, we see those things shift public

713
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 5: opinion dramatically. And the ongoing snatching of immigrants and deportations

714
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 5: and sending people back to places where they be tortured

715
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:20,799
Speaker 5: and killed. Like that's kind of the background and it

716
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,719
Speaker 5: makes people angry, but like it's these these these specific

717
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 5: actions which seem to shift public opinion dramatically. All right,

718
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 5: So on that topic, I guess we should talk about

719
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 5: the quote unquote shutdown, and specifically the shutdown of the

720
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:48,840
Speaker 5: Department of Homeland Security.

721
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 3: Right.

722
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 5: I guess the first thing to clarify is this isn't

723
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 5: a government shut down in the sense of the shutdown

724
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 5: we saw last year, right that that lasted like forty

725
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 5: plus days.

726
00:38:57,320 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 3: Right, It's a partial shutdown.

727
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 6: It's partial shutdown.

728
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 5: What's happening right now is the Democrats are holding up

729
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 5: further funding for DHS until the administration agrees to some

730
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 5: concessions that they have asked for. This is unlikely to

731
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:15,359
Speaker 5: impact ICE and CBP a very great deal for a.

732
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 6: Couple of reasons.

733
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 5: Firstly, the Taxi Spending Cuts Bill right, twenty twenty five

734
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 5: bill funded them to an absolutely unfathomable degree, I think

735
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 5: sixty five and seventy million, respectively. More quickly, it will

736
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:36,319
Speaker 5: affect other agencies under DHS. Those includes Transport Security Administration,

737
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:41,240
Speaker 5: Federal Emergency Management Administration, the Secret Service, and the Coast Guard.

738
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 5: Some TSA workers will be working that they will likely

739
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:50,400
Speaker 5: not be receiving pay. This is pretty common right that

740
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 5: they're deemed does quite unquite essential workers, and that means

741
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 5: that they will be expected you to work. What we

742
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 5: saw last time was that as the shutdown dragged on,

743
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 5: people were calling in sick or not coming into work

744
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:04,719
Speaker 5: because they were taking other jobs right because they had

745
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:08,279
Speaker 5: bills to pay. The reason this is happening is because

746
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,800
Speaker 5: Democrats successfully managed to get Trump to separate DHS funding

747
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 5: from another spending bill, which passed through and funded the

748
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:16,720
Speaker 5: rest of the federal government.

749
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 6: They are demanding an end to masking.

750
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 5: I should clarify specifically like masking in the sense of

751
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:27,800
Speaker 5: law enforcement officers wearing gates over their faces, a return

752
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:31,840
Speaker 5: to opposites displaying their name, badge, and ID number, increased

753
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 5: oversight of detention conditions, coordination with local law enforcement, and

754
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 5: end to the detention of US citizens targeted enforcement and

755
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 5: not roving patrols, and a unified use of force and

756
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:48,879
Speaker 5: uniform conduct policy for CBP and ICE, and then an

757
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 5: end to raids using Form two point fifteen. I'm just

758
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 5: going to note here them moving forwardre going to refer

759
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 5: to that using its it's that name and not call

760
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 5: it an administrative warrant, because an administrative warrant like kind

761
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 5: of implies the action of a judge. But these are

762
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 5: forms that are filled out right that it is not

763
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 5: the same early aspected as a warrant, and that's a

764
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:16,880
Speaker 5: judicial warrant. The Republican counterproposals so far have shown pretty

765
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 5: little common ground on this, aside from over body cameras

766
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:24,800
Speaker 5: where Gnome did implement body cameras. As I said, ICE

767
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:28,839
Speaker 5: and CBP will continue doing what they do right. I

768
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 5: was at the border on Saturday and I saw tons

769
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 5: of CBP patrols. They do not seem to have slowed

770
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 5: down with their wall construction. That may overtime slow down.

771
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:44,839
Speaker 5: They won't be paying like the workers week by week

772
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 5: on those contracts. They will be paying a contractor who

773
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 5: might be paying a subcontractor, so that would take time

774
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 5: to slow down. The things that will slow down. Are

775
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 5: things like the oversight function to DHS, potentially administrative and

776
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:02,239
Speaker 5: hiring functions, things like that, right, But the actual like

777
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 5: on the ground patrolling, most of those people are deemed

778
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 5: as essential workers. So it seems unlikely that we will see,

779
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 5: for instance, fewer CBP patrols at the border or fewer

780
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 5: ero iscera agents like tasked with doing these ongoing raids.

781
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 5: So yeah, talking about DHS, I want to talk a

782
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:23,520
Speaker 5: little bit more about the Coast Guard. I think it's

783
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:25,759
Speaker 5: likely that some people won't be aware that the Coast

784
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 5: Guard is an element of the DHS. They're also a

785
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 5: branch of the military, right they're the only branch of

786
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 5: the military that's under the DHS. Yes, so they considered veterans,

787
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:39,799
Speaker 5: but they're not on the DoD or the DOW as

788
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:42,800
Speaker 5: you can now call it. The NBC has a piece

789
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 5: suggesting that there is, I guess, a split in the

790
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:49,720
Speaker 5: Coast Guard between lower ranks and higher ranks, and specifically

791
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:53,280
Speaker 5: they're talking about feeling that Coast Guard is moving away

792
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:56,359
Speaker 5: from its court mission, which is search and rescue. They

793
00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 5: highlight one incident in February of last year when a

794
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 5: Coast guardsmen went overboard and a Coast Guard see one

795
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 5: thirty was detailed to participate in the search for that

796
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 5: Coast guardsman.

797
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:08,799
Speaker 6: Right.

798
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 5: It had previously been detailed for a deportation flight that

799
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 5: it was retasked to assist with the search. According to

800
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 5: the piece, quote non verbally instructed the acting Commandant of

801
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 5: the Coast Guard, Admiral Kevin Lunday, to pull the plane

802
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:24,759
Speaker 5: off the search and rescue mission so it would not

803
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 5: miss the immigrant flight, a part of DHS's so called

804
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 5: alien expulsion operations. According to two US officials and a

805
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:34,720
Speaker 5: Coastguard official, as a result, what happened is that local

806
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 5: Coast Guard officials in San Diego scrambled to find two

807
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 5: C twenty seven's that could fulfill that deportation flight. In

808
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 5: doing so, that freed out the Sea one thirty to

809
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 5: then go return to participate in the search. Right. They

810
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 5: did continue searching, I believe, for one hundred and ninety hours,

811
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:53,280
Speaker 5: but they never found the missing Coast guardsmen.

812
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 6: Right.

813
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 5: You cannot and will never be able to conclusively prove

814
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 5: that all of this back and forth with this one

815
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 5: thirty had any impact on that, But this incident has

816
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 5: clearly had an impact on morale and it suggested general

817
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:10,280
Speaker 5: shift in priorities away from search and rescue.

818
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:12,360
Speaker 6: And towards doing more border enforcement.

819
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 3: Right.

820
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 5: Under NOME seven hundred and fifty flights have been redirected

821
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:19,320
Speaker 5: from their regular work to instead deport migrants. This comes

822
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 5: after she removed a high ranking Coast Guard official from

823
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,320
Speaker 5: her house so that Nope could live at the house.

824
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 6: Wait what Yeah, yeah, she kicked the Coastguard person out.

825
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 3: Of their house.

826
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:35,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, this was last year. She moved with like very

827
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:38,839
Speaker 5: short notice. She moved onto a shit, Yeah, she moved

828
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 5: onto a base.

829
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:45,200
Speaker 2: Yeah with Lewandowski, right, that might be the case, goes,

830
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 2: there was like a few people in like the cabinet

831
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:48,920
Speaker 2: or orbit.

832
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:51,279
Speaker 6: Yes, yes, I thought you meant like they were cohabiting.

833
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 2: Oh no, no, no, okay, yeah, okay, beautiful domestic life.

834
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 5: Yeah okay, I was, I was. I don't want to

835
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 5: doubt you. That would have been in news to me. Yes,

836
00:45:02,200 --> 00:45:05,759
Speaker 5: a number of Trumps, like executive officials, are living on

837
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:09,800
Speaker 5: basis more than is usual. I think the Millers maybe

838
00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 5: do as well.

839
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 6: But yeah.

840
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 5: She also purchased two Gulf Stream jets to fly her around,

841
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 5: unlike most government jets, which tend to be returned towards

842
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 5: what's called a sterile state after use. That just means

843
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:24,439
Speaker 5: that they go back to being completely clean, like they're

844
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:28,480
Speaker 5: like a generic jet. They're not your jet. Nome prefers

845
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:31,719
Speaker 5: to keep some personal items aboard the Gulf streams, but

846
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:35,760
Speaker 5: one of these items, a heated blanket, was left behind

847
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:38,240
Speaker 5: after her jet broke down she had to switch planes.

848
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 5: Coylewandowski reportedly sheltered at the Coastguard flight staff and demanded

849
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 5: they turn around before attempting to fire the pilot, who

850
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 5: fused to do so.

851
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:51,840
Speaker 2: Jesus right, I need my blanky.

852
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:52,800
Speaker 10: I need my blanky.

853
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 3: Turn around.

854
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think she'd she had a rough week. I

855
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 5: guess one of the blankets.

856
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 11: These are absolutely just like the softest fascist that have

857
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 11: ever ruled the country. Like it, turn off flight around

858
00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:07,319
Speaker 11: because I left my baby blanket like.

859
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:09,480
Speaker 6: Yeah right, like I oh god.

860
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 5: Fortunately, I guess they de escalated that one and continued

861
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:19,840
Speaker 5: the flight. Blanket free, the fire the pike. Yeah, I

862
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 5: think it is interesting to look at Coast Guards morale. Right, Like,

863
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:27,799
Speaker 5: Coast guards traditional mission has been search and rescue and

864
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 5: then the interdiction of like drug vessels, and they have

865
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:36,800
Speaker 5: been doing a great deal of order enforcement stuff and

866
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 5: removal stuff. And it is obviously like people who have

867
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 5: been at the Coast Guard for a long time, not

868
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:44,879
Speaker 5: what they joined the Coast Guard to do. I will

869
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 5: just say that there are very few areas in which

870
00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 5: the United Kingdom has worked shit out, but the lifeboats

871
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:53,879
Speaker 5: are one of them. They are mentioned in Mutual Aid.

872
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 5: The Royal National Lifeboat Institute has an article on for

873
00:46:57,400 --> 00:46:58,840
Speaker 5: Popkin on their website.

874
00:46:59,080 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 10: Incredible and it.

875
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 5: Is one of the really genuinely good things about Britain.

876
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:07,799
Speaker 5: By contrasting that are not part of our government security apparatus.

877
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, because that makes no sense. The entire agency of

878
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 2: DHS makes no sense whatsoever.

879
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's just because.

880
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:14,880
Speaker 6: Yeah, there are better ways to do this.

881
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 4: I mean it makes again, it makes a lot of

882
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:18,920
Speaker 4: sense as the president's private army.

883
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 3: Yeah.

884
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:25,560
Speaker 2: For our final segment in this episode, some tragic news.

885
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 2: On Monday afternoon, February sixteenth, two people were killed in

886
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:33,440
Speaker 2: a shooting at a hockey game in Pawtucket, Rhode Island.

887
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 2: Before the shooter died by suicide. Three others were shot

888
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 2: but survived their injuries. In the aftermath of the strategy,

889
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 2: people across the right and the left have both used

890
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 2: this shooting offensively and defensively in the culture war because

891
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 2: of the shooter's general identity and far right conspiratorial politics,

892
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:57,760
Speaker 2: even though evidence points towards this being targeted domestic violence.

893
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 2: The deceased or the shooter's X onefe and eldest son,

894
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,840
Speaker 2: and the deceased ex wife's parents were critically wounded but survived,

895
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:08,799
Speaker 2: as did a family friend. The shooter's other son was

896
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 2: on the ice playing hockey while the shooting took place. Ordinarily,

897
00:48:13,120 --> 00:48:15,400
Speaker 2: we would not talk about an instant like this in

898
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:18,720
Speaker 2: the news because there's a lot of domestic violence shootings

899
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 2: that happened across the United States every week, and not

900
00:48:21,280 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 2: all of them become national news stories. This is news

901
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 2: because of its weaponization in the political culture war, but

902
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 2: under most methodologies like this incident would not even be

903
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 2: categorized as a mass shooting because less than four people died.

904
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:39,399
Speaker 2: It does qualify under the Gun Violence Archive criteria, which

905
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 2: counts injuries not debts, in which this would be the

906
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 2: forty first shooting in the US this year. But after

907
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 2: the shooting took place, right wing accounts and influences started

908
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 2: using this as a part of their trans mass shooter narrative.

909
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 2: On Monday night, the Pawtucket Police that they believed the

910
00:48:57,040 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 2: shooting stemmed from a family dispute. The shooter was fifty

911
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:04,359
Speaker 2: six years old with six kids. About ten years ago,

912
00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:07,799
Speaker 2: the shooter started identifying as a transgender woman and used

913
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 2: the name Roberta Esposito. The legal last name is Dorgan.

914
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:19,360
Speaker 2: They're not Hispanic, oh. The shooter was divorced about five

915
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 2: to six years ago, and Dorgan's ex wife lists the

916
00:49:23,239 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 2: grounds for divorce in the documents as quote, gender reassignment, surgery,

917
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 2: narcissistic and personality disorder traits. Then she crossed that out

918
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:39,359
Speaker 2: and instead wrote quote irrevocable differences which caused the remediable

919
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 2: breakdown of the marriage unquote. The shooter was extremely active

920
00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:51,600
Speaker 2: on Twitter, made anti semitic and conspiratorial posts, and frequently

921
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:55,319
Speaker 2: interacted with a large assortment of mega influencers, as well

922
00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:59,120
Speaker 2: as far right, neo Nazi, and conspiracy theory influencers like

923
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 2: Nick Fuentes and Alex Jones. Dorgan also shared pictures of

924
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:07,919
Speaker 2: a massive like SS toteen CoV tattoo on their right

925
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 2: arm and wrote on Twitter quote post off trans to

926
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 2: the right of Hitler and quote you can be pro

927
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 2: LGBT and pro Trump unquote. From looking through their Twitter

928
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 2: it it mostly appears to be someone who is suffering

929
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:27,959
Speaker 2: from extreme mental distress. It's hard to, you know, chart

930
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:30,360
Speaker 2: how much of the political beliefs that can be to

931
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 2: split on Twitter are like genuinely held versus how much

932
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 2: they relate to long standing mental health issues this person

933
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:38,600
Speaker 2: suffered from, which I'll get into in a sec.

934
00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:41,439
Speaker 6: I'm still a little hung up on the name.

935
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:44,920
Speaker 2: The name also, I think relates to just this person's

936
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 2: very very not well.

937
00:50:46,080 --> 00:50:49,080
Speaker 6: Okay, they're just trying to pay people off, flick with correct.

938
00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:52,160
Speaker 2: I think everything about this person can be seen as

939
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:58,439
Speaker 2: an expression of like antisociality politics their presentation the name now.

940
00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:02,200
Speaker 2: While right wing news agent Season influencers have used this

941
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:05,840
Speaker 2: horrifying instant of domestic violence for their trans mass shooter narrative,

942
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 2: framing every transperson is at risk of randomly becoming a

943
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 2: mass killer while ignoring this shooter's own extremist politics, people

944
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 2: on the left have blamed this tragedy on the shooter

945
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:18,880
Speaker 2: being a quote unquote far right Trump supporter or a

946
00:51:19,080 --> 00:51:22,759
Speaker 2: quote unquote Nazi groper. And this is in part a

947
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 2: defensive reaction against the right zone like misleading and non

948
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:29,719
Speaker 2: source claims about a statistical epidemic of trans violence. But

949
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:33,240
Speaker 2: laying blame on Make America Great Again and the MAGA

950
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:38,440
Speaker 2: movement doesn't really get us much closer to understanding this violence.

951
00:51:39,280 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 2: We're so used to defaulting to this heartizan culture war

952
00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:47,200
Speaker 2: like ideological explanation for the cause of public violence, whether

953
00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 2: that's you know, for the right, trans ideology or neo Nazism,

954
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:54,840
Speaker 2: even though both in this case and the shooting in

955
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:56,839
Speaker 2: Canada last week, which I talked about a few days

956
00:51:56,840 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 2: ago on the show, this was like anti social, unstable

957
00:52:00,680 --> 00:52:03,839
Speaker 2: and self destructive individuals who kill family members and then

958
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 2: created a deadly public situation leading them to kill themselves.

959
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:13,040
Speaker 2: Despite Nazi tattoos and Twitter posts, this hockey game shooting

960
00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 2: was not ideologically motivated violence. This was targeted interpersonal violence

961
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 2: against family stemming from extreme mental health issues. This goes

962
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:25,360
Speaker 2: beyond like right left politics. This shooter just seemed to

963
00:52:25,360 --> 00:52:28,799
Speaker 2: be drawn to anything seen as extreme or anything that

964
00:52:28,880 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 2: produced anti social effects. The daughter of the shooter briefly

965
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 2: spoke to local news on Monday, saying that the shooter

966
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 2: was her father and that the shooter had quote unquote

967
00:52:40,200 --> 00:52:44,279
Speaker 2: mental health issues and was quote unquote very sick. The

968
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:46,840
Speaker 2: Rhode Island Coalition Against Domestic Violence said in a statement

969
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:50,120
Speaker 2: Monday night, quote while details are still emerging, we know

970
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:53,640
Speaker 2: that violence within families and intimate relationships can have devastating

971
00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 2: and far reaching impacts. Domestic violence does not stay behind

972
00:52:57,080 --> 00:53:00,960
Speaker 2: closed doors. It affects children, extended family members, and entire communities.

973
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:01,920
Speaker 10: Unquote.

974
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:04,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I guess if you want to do

975
00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:07,400
Speaker 1: analysis of it, it's that like the thing that's actually

976
00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 1: a predictive for violence is domestic violence, and this is

977
00:53:11,840 --> 00:53:14,120
Speaker 1: another really horrible to mastic violence incidents.

978
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:16,840
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's it's pretty tragic.

979
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 10: Yeah.

980
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:21,480
Speaker 2: Interestingly, there was some news that came out today, which

981
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:25,320
Speaker 2: is Wednesday, that one of the other sons of this

982
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 2: shooter was arrested a few years ago in North Providence

983
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:35,600
Speaker 2: for setting fires to a black church, which did appear

984
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:41,240
Speaker 2: to be ideologically motivated violence. Police found notebooks inside of

985
00:53:41,400 --> 00:53:45,480
Speaker 2: this person's home filled with hateful writings quote, gutten down

986
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:48,960
Speaker 2: everyone that isn't white. If one is white, spread the gospel.

987
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 2: Always give our bloodline a chance unquote. So this incident

988
00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:57,719
Speaker 2: of a arson in a black church is definitely ideologically motivated.

989
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:01,240
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's been a great, stremely normal country.

990
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:04,640
Speaker 2: And this person was sentenced to six years in prison.

991
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 3: Oh wow.

992
00:54:05,239 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 6: So the person that's the son of the person, the.

993
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:10,400
Speaker 2: Son of the shooter, one of the sons of the shooter.

994
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:11,959
Speaker 6: Yeah, they had several sense.

995
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:17,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, just a pretty tragic series of incidents with this family.

996
00:54:17,120 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 5: I do find it really disturbing that the thing that

997
00:54:20,640 --> 00:54:22,840
Speaker 5: you mentioned where people just kind of drop into a

998
00:54:22,960 --> 00:54:26,239
Speaker 5: channel when it comes to responding to a tragedy like this, like,

999
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:28,400
Speaker 5: and I find it really upsetting when I see it

1000
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:34,280
Speaker 5: from like, yeah, left and progressive organizations that promote firearms

1001
00:54:34,280 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 5: training or like.

1002
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:37,280
Speaker 6: I just find it really kind.

1003
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:40,640
Speaker 5: Of disappointing, I guess, to see people dropping into these

1004
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 5: same kind of callous and dismissive responses.

1005
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:47,160
Speaker 6: It's just something that's been weighing on me recently.

1006
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:50,280
Speaker 5: I am a person who owns guns, but it's still

1007
00:54:50,719 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 5: I don't know, I'm disappointed.

1008
00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:52,520
Speaker 6: I guess.

1009
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:53,200
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1010
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:57,440
Speaker 2: All right, well we reported the news.

1011
00:54:58,160 --> 00:54:59,480
Speaker 10: Put a transcrol on your couch.

1012
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:03,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, And if you have some news that you think

1013
00:55:03,320 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 5: we should report, tips, you can do so by emailing

1014
00:55:07,200 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 5: Cool Zone Tips at proton dot me. If you have

1015
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:12,040
Speaker 5: someone that you would like to be a guest on

1016
00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:15,080
Speaker 5: our show, or a topic that you think Roberts should

1017
00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:17,240
Speaker 5: cover from behind the bustards, we will make another email

1018
00:55:17,239 --> 00:55:19,400
Speaker 5: for that, but if you could just not email the

1019
00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 5: tip line. If you're a publicist and you email, I

1020
00:55:22,560 --> 00:55:23,200
Speaker 5: will block you.

1021
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:25,439
Speaker 3: We reported the new.

1022
00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:36,480
Speaker 13: It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.

1023
00:55:36,560 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 13: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website

1024
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:43,280
Speaker 13: coolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app,

1025
00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:46,920
Speaker 13: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can

1026
00:55:46,960 --> 00:55:49,280
Speaker 13: now find sources where it Could Happen here listen directly

1027
00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:51,600
Speaker 13: in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.