Speaker 1: Good afternoon everyone, and welcome into the NHL Stanley Cup
Speaker 1: Playoffs live stream here on the Fantasy Pros Twitch channel.
Speaker 1: We are now through four games of the Stanley Cup
Speaker 1: Finals and the series is tied. It's now down to
Speaker 1: a best of three. I am Tyler Conniam, joined as
Speaker 1: always by Betting Pros, NHL expert and resident Edmonton Oilers
Speaker 1: fan Kelly Kirby. These intros during the finals are very
Speaker 1: easy because I just say, what do you think after
Speaker 1: the last game? Exactly?
Speaker 2: Well, I have much better feelings today than I did
Speaker 2: on Tuesday, let me tell.
Speaker 1: You I would think so yeah, yeah, that was a
Speaker 1: fun one. Excited to talk about that today. As a reminder,
Speaker 1: we are live each and every Tuesday and Friday at
Speaker 1: three pm here on Twitch until the Stanley Cup Finals
Speaker 1: is done. So there was potential that today would have
Speaker 1: been our last stream. Not the case. Thank you Oilers,
Speaker 1: so if you're watching say thank you to Edmonton as well.
Speaker 1: If you're watching this on YouTube, reminder to subscribe and
Speaker 1: follow us on twitch at twitch dot tv slash Fantasy
Speaker 1: Pros so you can join us live Tuesday and Friday
Speaker 1: at three Eastern. If you're in the chat, feel free
Speaker 1: to drop a comment, drop a question, and as we
Speaker 1: get into it, as always, I'll let you take the floor.
Speaker 1: That was a hell of a hockey game last night.
Speaker 1: Give me your initial reactions and excitement oilers, tie it up.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let me tell you. I've had a week, like
Speaker 2: some really sad things have happened, and I like hurried home,
Speaker 2: got in my seat, like at like six fifty nine,
Speaker 2: I'm in Central times on right, and they scored those
Speaker 2: three goals and I literally was just like sure, like
Speaker 2: this fits right in, and I was like I'm gonna
Speaker 2: just go like I just went and like changed clothes,
Speaker 2: and I was just, you know, do I even want
Speaker 2: to go back and keep watching this? Like is it
Speaker 2: too much sadness? And then I walked back, sat down
Speaker 2: like whatever, we may only have two of these games left.
Speaker 2: And then all of a sudden, it was just like
Speaker 2: here they come, and I thought, Okay, we're gonna do this,
Speaker 2: like I think we got it now maybe and maybe
Speaker 2: it was like that pentitiveness. And then when they took
Speaker 2: the lead in the third, I was like, this is great.
Speaker 2: And then when Florida scored with nineteen and a half
Speaker 2: secs left, my dad, who does not watch hockey message
Speaker 2: me and goes He's like, really, we're gonna go to overtime.
Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, we are we now, okay, I got it.
Speaker 1: So yeah, it was like three games in one. The
Speaker 1: first period was all Florida, the second period's all Edmonton,
Speaker 1: and then it kind of evened out for the third
Speaker 1: period in overtime as well. And we were talking before
Speaker 1: we started recording. I watched the first period three nothing Florida,
Speaker 1: and I mean, I'm not an Oilers fan. I got
Speaker 1: a bunch of bets on the Oilers and all that
Speaker 1: so and just being Canadian, I got the rooting interest there,
Speaker 1: but I was like, you know what, forget it. Turned
Speaker 1: it off after the first period, got into bed and
Speaker 1: my wife's like, I think they have Beinton just scores.
Speaker 1: I'm like, okay, I'll put it on the radio. Then
Speaker 1: it was three to two, Then it was three to three.
Speaker 1: I'm like, hey, I guess I'm just back up watching
Speaker 1: this now. And then as you mentioned, Florida, they take
Speaker 1: the lead. Then Florida scores at the end there, and
Speaker 1: it was one of those things where you just felt
Speaker 1: like Florida's probably going to win this game. They get
Speaker 1: it to the early lead, they lose it, they go down,
Speaker 1: they come back, like it's just one of those ebbs
Speaker 1: and flows where it feels like the Florida Panthers are
Speaker 1: going to win the hockey game and they don't. The
Speaker 1: Edmonton Oilers win it there to tie up to series
Speaker 1: two to two. So plus that, as I mentioned not
Speaker 1: our final stream, we also did well on the bets,
Speaker 1: so you know you had had dry Sidle two plus
Speaker 1: points for plus money. He's basically good for two plus
Speaker 1: points every single time both had Oiler's money line. I
Speaker 1: had plus one plus one thirty yesterday for the Oilers,
Speaker 1: which was crazy, which was nice, and then over City there.
Speaker 1: So that's been hitting, which is which is great. And
Speaker 1: just watching these two teams like because it's been nice
Speaker 1: because we've watched all these games, been watching the playoffs
Speaker 1: the whole time. You watch these two teams play, and
Speaker 1: it's unequivocally the two best teams left in the NHL.
Speaker 1: Like just the high level play in the passing and
Speaker 1: the special teams and everything super incredible to watch. But
Speaker 1: I have to ask the big questions. Stuart Skinner gets
Speaker 1: pulled after the first period they go to is it
Speaker 1: Picard or Pickers.
Speaker 2: I think it's Picard, but I'm not sure.
Speaker 1: I like saying Picard because of like Star Trek.
Speaker 2: Right, and I don't like Star Treks. So if you
Speaker 2: want to go the other way, we can, but that's
Speaker 2: all You're gone.
Speaker 1: So we can do either one. So I have to
Speaker 1: ask you, what is going to be their game plan
Speaker 1: in game five?
Speaker 2: Is it?
Speaker 1: Because we feel like every time we have this conversation,
Speaker 1: we're like, oh, it's definitely skinner, then it's not right.
Speaker 1: So what is your assumption that we'll be doing for
Speaker 1: game five? And net?
Speaker 2: First of all, I was so excited that they pulled him,
Speaker 2: and I think it was mostly not because I thought
Speaker 2: he was like down or out or whatever, but even
Speaker 2: what I was saying in game three where I'm like, okay,
Speaker 2: rest him, like he looked like he needed a game off,
Speaker 2: like and you know, in the flow of a regular season,
Speaker 2: like he would have had a rest by now. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I had no problem with that. And then and then
Speaker 2: Pickard or Picard came in and and really just shut
Speaker 2: it down, Like I he looked great, and I'm like,
Speaker 2: in my opinion, we have two average goalies. And so
Speaker 2: for me, I'm like, play the fresher one, Like I
Speaker 2: don't know, Like that's I'm kind of hung up on it.
Speaker 2: Where I think I think Pickers should start. Now, see
Speaker 2: now you have me thinking about the pronunciation every time
Speaker 2: I say it. But I think that he should start
Speaker 2: game five just because he looked good game four. We
Speaker 2: know he brought us back during round one. It doesn't
Speaker 2: make me nervous to start him, So I think that's
Speaker 2: where i'd go.
Speaker 1: It's a good point that you mentioned as you get
Speaker 1: this deep into the playoffs, like someone like Bobrovski who's
Speaker 1: played every single game, you know, I know they have
Speaker 1: some days off. It's going to be a bit of
Speaker 1: a quicker turnaround game four to game five. Just today
Speaker 1: off and then we're right back at it tomorrow. So
Speaker 1: for a player who, you know, Bobrowski's used to carrying
Speaker 1: that weight and playing all those games, Skinner and Picard,
Speaker 1: you know, they kind of split it fairly evenly down
Speaker 1: the middle. So I'm very interested to see what they
Speaker 1: decide to do there. As you mentioned, when Skinner came
Speaker 1: out in the first round, Guard came in and he
Speaker 1: was great, and it probably would have been his playoffs
Speaker 1: to start or not if he didn't get hurt. There
Speaker 1: is a funny little meme that you shared with us
Speaker 1: earlier that I'm hoping Seth can put up on the
Speaker 1: screen there. And this is the quintessential Edmonton Oiler's. Normal
Speaker 1: teams they get a lead, they hold the lead, and
Speaker 1: then they win the game. Yep, that's not how the
Speaker 1: Edmonton Oilers operate. They want to give up the first goal.
Speaker 1: They want absolute chaos ensue and then somehow win the game.
Speaker 1: It is unbelievable the amount of times that this team
Speaker 1: gets down, not only by one or two goals, like
Speaker 1: they were the first team in history after thirty seven
Speaker 1: tries to be down three goals in a Stanley Cup
Speaker 1: finals game and come back and win the game. I
Speaker 1: know this isn't a strategy, but what do you attribute
Speaker 1: their ability to do this to.
Speaker 2: First of all, I don't know who to credit On Twitter,
Speaker 2: I just like stole it, but I had seen it
Speaker 2: in a number of places, so I just want to
Speaker 2: give that out. But yeah, I don't know. I mean
Speaker 2: I feel like I want, you know, the lame answer
Speaker 2: would be like, oh, they just never quit, like and
Speaker 2: I feel like it's just more of a we got
Speaker 2: to make the challenge more. We have to like figure out,
Speaker 2: you know, how are we going to do it? What
Speaker 2: are we going to do? And then it's I really
Speaker 2: think they get into you know, we blacked out the word,
Speaker 2: but I kind of think they get into like, Okay, well,
Speaker 2: f this, let's go yeah and not a not in
Speaker 2: a f this we're going to totally win the game
Speaker 2: as much as okay, well, let's just start doing whatever
Speaker 2: we want to do. And that's the chaos in the middle.
Speaker 2: And yeah, my favorite part of the meme actually is
Speaker 2: the woman on top at win the game who's just
Speaker 2: like yay, And I'm like, if you're an Oilers fan,
Speaker 2: that is exactly how it feels like you are in
Speaker 2: a car that is on fire and like you're excited,
Speaker 2: but you're also a little nervous still.
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, And there's the famous again the clip
Speaker 1: from last year in the finals and there down three
Speaker 1: CODDR McDavid in the dressing room during an intermission, you know,
Speaker 1: completely cursing out the team, saying get it together. And
Speaker 1: I thought I would not be surprised if that's the
Speaker 1: exact same speech that he gave after that first period.
Speaker 1: There and then they just come out a different team.
Speaker 1: They don't take as many penalties, they just look a
Speaker 1: lot more confident. They start playing their game. So again
Speaker 1: another instance of it's the best of three now. So
Speaker 1: we've had so many different versions of this series already.
Speaker 1: It's really been one of the better series that we've seen.
Speaker 1: So which version of the Oilers come out, the one
Speaker 1: that are rattled or can't stay out of the penalty
Speaker 1: box and Stuart Skinner can't stop a buck or the
Speaker 1: version that was the second period where it's how does
Speaker 1: anybody ever beat this team? So I think that's that's
Speaker 1: what I'm excited to see. As I mentioned second period,
Speaker 1: three hundred answered three unanswered goals yet and they came
Speaker 1: from sort of maybe unlikely sources, Nugent Hopkins, nurse, Pod
Speaker 1: cales In, Pod coles in, you know, not your dry Sidle,
Speaker 1: not your McDavid to get them back into it. Then
Speaker 1: they get a goal from Walman at the end, they're
Speaker 1: and unbelievable. He was wide open forever on that one
Speaker 1: time slapshot that goes in, and then of course Ryan
Speaker 1: Hart ties it for Florida. We go to the end,
Speaker 1: dry Sidle gets the winner, and that was a bit
Speaker 1: of a softie there that Bubrovski led in what did
Speaker 1: you make of that overtime goal?
Speaker 2: I thought that was payback for Marshawn's overtime goal in
Speaker 2: Game two, when it just it's the most helpless feeling.
Speaker 2: I actually have empathy for Panthers fans on that regard,
Speaker 2: where it's like he stops, he's an acrobat, he stops everything,
Speaker 2: and then just this weird little squeaker goes through your legs.
Speaker 2: It's just horrible. So that's how we felt at the
Speaker 2: end of of Game two. So and sometimes that's just
Speaker 2: what it is, right, I mean, hockey is like, yeah,
Speaker 2: it's talent beyond belief, but that the amount that the
Speaker 2: puck bounces and just rolls around. I honestly, I am
Speaker 2: always like I don't know how anyone scores, and I
Speaker 2: don't know how anyone stops it.
Speaker 1: So it's one of those things we've talked about how
Speaker 1: the Oilers just feel like the team of destiny, and
Speaker 1: then to do it with a minute left in overtime,
Speaker 1: Panthers just need to survive another minute. Pebrovski's made some
Speaker 1: unbelievable saves in that game, made a couple on dry
Speaker 1: sidle and then for that to be the goal. Again,
Speaker 1: it's just one of those things of like, you know,
Speaker 1: destiny just seems to be on their side a little bit.
Speaker 1: You see it, whether it's a good bounce in basketball
Speaker 1: or ball's just foul and baseball the goal is like
Speaker 1: that at the end of the day, could end up
Speaker 1: being the difference between winning the Stanley Cup or not
Speaker 1: winning the Stanley Cup. Before we get into Game five
Speaker 1: and how we're betting that, I do just want to
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Speaker 1: So the stage is now set. It's Game five. The
Speaker 1: series shifts back to Edmonton. As expected, the Oilers are
Speaker 1: Favorites minus one fifteen, minus one twenty, Panthers around plus
Speaker 1: one oh five. I can't read what that says on
Speaker 1: the screen. Pinnacle plus one oh seven maybe, but they're
Speaker 1: in the plus one one oh seven, so plus one
Speaker 1: oh five plus one ten range. Before we talk about
Speaker 1: the total, which is I feel like going to be
Speaker 1: a bit of a topic of conversation. What do you
Speaker 1: think about that opening line? I think it's pretty pretty
Speaker 1: in line with what I expected.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's actually exactly in line with what I figured
Speaker 2: it would come out. And that's it's kind of the
Speaker 2: let's let's concede that these teams are incredibly close together
Speaker 2: and that Edmonton at home should have I mean, they
Speaker 2: should be favored and so, but I wouldn't I would
Speaker 2: want Florida to go much higher than that, because then
Speaker 2: I would then I would start to feel like I
Speaker 2: would almost want to bet them. So I am fine
Speaker 2: at minus one fifteen or plus one or seven. I
Speaker 2: think those are actually really good numbers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think of anything, I was thinking, Oilers maybe
Speaker 1: one fifteen, one twenty, and Panther is closer to even money.
Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised that it is as high as one
Speaker 1: oh seven not enough to make me want to bet it.
Speaker 1: I am going to put some money on the Oilers,
Speaker 1: but if anything, maybe Panthers. But again, the home ice
Speaker 1: advantage is a big deal. And then the over under
Speaker 1: it's I feel like it's gonna be six and a
Speaker 1: half probably the rest of this series unless something crazy happens.
Speaker 1: I did notice there aren't a lot of places to
Speaker 1: get a six. I've been taking over six the first well,
Speaker 1: I took the under for Game three. That was the
Speaker 1: only time I took the under. But every other time
Speaker 1: six over over over, it's gone to six and a
Speaker 1: half pretty much everywhere they are gonna make or they
Speaker 1: are gonna make it a little bit profitable at plus
Speaker 1: one oh five, it's juice to the under. This time
Speaker 1: at minus six at minus one twenty for six and
Speaker 1: a half. So what are your thoughts on the total there? Yeah?
Speaker 2: I think part of my thought is how many games
Speaker 2: do we have to see before before we're like, maybe
Speaker 2: maybe seven goals might get scored here. I you know,
Speaker 2: I really, really truly believe that the game three was
Speaker 2: the one that was going to go under, and it
Speaker 2: sat there at hung there, But then the other three
Speaker 2: I'm like, I don't know what we're I don't know
Speaker 2: what we're doing four to three and overtime seems to
Speaker 2: be like the play that I would think of prior
Speaker 2: to all of the games. So no, And I think
Speaker 2: when the first four games go over six and a half, like,
Speaker 2: how do you offer an over six? Like? How do
Speaker 2: you give them that? And I kind of want to
Speaker 2: see as people keep thinking about it, how like what
Speaker 2: good odds can we get on the over six and
Speaker 2: a half? Like just how high up can we get
Speaker 2: that to go? And I think people are going to
Speaker 2: overthink it and if it if it gets to I mean,
Speaker 2: I've already bet it. I think I got it at
Speaker 2: a plus one fifteen somewhere.
Speaker 1: So we're actually on opposite sides of that one and
Speaker 1: we'll talk talk about that and the reason behind that.
Speaker 1: But very exciting for game five. Could it be a
Speaker 1: repeat of last year we talked you know again last
Speaker 1: time there down three to zero in the series, they
Speaker 1: start coming back. Anytime they seem to face adversity, they
Speaker 1: are coming back. I don't want to say the Oilers
Speaker 1: are invincible, but they do seem like they just have
Speaker 1: maybe the ninth live there. It's another game, they come
Speaker 1: back from the deficit. As we mentioned thirty seven and one, now,
Speaker 1: teams that are up three to nothing in a Stanley
Speaker 1: Cup finals game to win the game. Oilers are the
Speaker 1: first team to do that. And then when you look
Speaker 1: at who scored and who's done what, you know, we
Speaker 1: get another three points from dry Sidle, we get one
Speaker 1: from McDavid. They're both tied with thirty two in the
Speaker 1: Stanley Cup playoffs. To Chuck is the closest Panther and
Speaker 1: he's only got twenty one, so he's eleven points back
Speaker 1: of both of those players. Dry Sidle and McDavid also
Speaker 1: both lead this series with seven and six points. And
Speaker 1: then on the flip side for the Panthers, Sam Bennett
Speaker 1: has six. He is Bennett, Marshawn and dry Sidle are
Speaker 1: leading the way all there with four goals. So as
Speaker 1: we go into Game five, we saw it with the
Speaker 1: way Edmonton came back. They're three goals in the second
Speaker 1: period were a lot more of their depth pieces. Do
Speaker 1: you think the depth is going to play another role
Speaker 1: in Game five? Are we going to keep rolling with
Speaker 1: dry Sidle, McDavid, Bennett, Ryan Hart, Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean I'm going to roll with the latter. I
Speaker 2: think I feel like the depth is always going to
Speaker 2: play a role. And if if the Oilers can get
Speaker 2: something from lines three or four, and any goal from
Speaker 2: lines three or four is would be fantastic. But no,
Speaker 2: I mean, I just keep coming back to I feel
Speaker 2: like it's just going to come down to it's gonna
Speaker 2: come down to that top line for Edmonton doing what
Speaker 2: they can do. And and if again, like if Kine
Speaker 2: could come in and do something like the ones we
Speaker 2: saw Connor Brown, I'm not gonna even try today. It's
Speaker 2: like I'm seeing Walman's who are like, yeah, that's great,
Speaker 2: and I really like that. But I'm like, in terms
Speaker 2: of like what are we going to rely on from
Speaker 2: a betting perspective, I'm this to me going home. This
Speaker 2: is where we just start going at what Dry, Sidle
Speaker 2: and McDavid could get done.
Speaker 1: I agree, it's every time I try to say sathing,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be the deepest cut that nobody is ever
Speaker 1: going to get. But there used to be these old
Speaker 1: commercials in the nineties for a watch brand called Esquire,
Speaker 1: and they'd get these Canadian athletes to just say, like
Speaker 1: their name Esquire, and there used to be. I think
Speaker 1: he was a skier named Scott Pazinski, and he would
Speaker 1: say Scott Pazinski, esquire if anybody can remember that, that's
Speaker 1: who that reminds me of there as well, And I
Speaker 1: got to agree. This has been the series where the
Speaker 1: stars have shown up. The only player to record a
Speaker 1: point in each and every game of this series so
Speaker 1: far is Sam Bennett. He has two to one. Sorry,
Speaker 1: he's got two to one, one and one, so he's
Speaker 1: a good bet. They're starting to get juicy though, like
Speaker 1: even Connor McDavid two points in Game five is minus
Speaker 1: one twenty five. Issue is going to continue to be penalties.
Speaker 1: There were four power plays on each side. The Panther
Speaker 1: scored on two of them, the Oilers scored on one
Speaker 1: of them. We've talked about this before as well, that
Speaker 1: the refs it doesn't look like they're going to open
Speaker 1: it up and just let them go. It looks like
Speaker 1: they're going to keep calling a pretty tight game. So
Speaker 1: who do you think that favors.
Speaker 2: That's actually a really interesting question that I thought of
Speaker 2: when when I was prepping for the show, that you know,
Speaker 2: a let's give it up for Edmonton not giving them
Speaker 2: eleven power plays like that was that's fun hockey. I
Speaker 2: mean only four, which is terrible, but I'm okay with it.
Speaker 2: I think it benefits Edmonton a smidge more, just because
Speaker 2: if they're going to call it tighter and Florida is
Speaker 2: a more physical team, I think that that's that there
Speaker 2: might be one or two calls that get in there that,
Speaker 2: you know, if we were going to just let them ride,
Speaker 2: there's no way they would call it. Now. If that
Speaker 2: continues into Game five is the question, because I feel
Speaker 2: like they could actually go with, okay, well now we're
Speaker 2: gonna let them get more physical, which would benefit Florida.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't know, and I don't know why Edmonton.
Speaker 2: They usually do a pretty good job of staying out
Speaker 2: of power plays, but I think the ones last night
Speaker 2: at least, if we're gonna look at the positive, we're
Speaker 2: kind of genuine like power play opportunities, not like we
Speaker 2: got baited into something stupid penalties. So that's yeah.
Speaker 1: They they did seem to play a little bit of
Speaker 1: a smarter game. And then one issue might be Ryan
Speaker 1: nushen Hopkins, big participant of the penalty kill. He's nursing
Speaker 1: an injury. We don't really quite know what's going on there.
Speaker 1: He was questionable before Game three and he played, but
Speaker 1: he's still out there on the penalty kill, so you
Speaker 1: have to wonder if that can be a factor. They're
Speaker 1: relying on him to be a producer on offense as well,
Speaker 1: and he's on the penalty kill, so you have to
Speaker 1: think one of Edmonton's biggest priorities has to be staying
Speaker 1: out of the box, because I mean, obviously you don't
Speaker 1: want to give the other team the advantage, but Florida's
Speaker 1: done a really good job of making them pay and
Speaker 1: they're scoring on those power plays and they can continue
Speaker 1: to do so, which will be interesting. And again we
Speaker 1: touched on the goalie situation already as well, whether it's
Speaker 1: Picard or whether it's going to be Stuart Skinner and
Speaker 1: Bobroski let in the softie there in overtime, but he
Speaker 1: did make a bunch of big stops. He's still got
Speaker 1: a safe percentage of nine to one to two. So
Speaker 1: two scenarios, it's Bobroski versus Skinner who has the advantage.
Speaker 1: If it's Bobroski versus Picard who gets the advantage, is
Speaker 1: it still going to be Florida regardless, or do you
Speaker 1: think Edmonton can get an edge in net?
Speaker 2: No, No, it's about it's Bobovski. We're not even going
Speaker 2: We don't I like to discuss some things. That one
Speaker 2: is not a discussion, Like he's just got the experience
Speaker 2: and I don't. It doesn't matter what Skinner or Pacard
Speaker 2: doing that, they're just not They're not gonna measure up.
Speaker 2: I mean I even had a dream last night like that.
Speaker 2: I was just like, what would it be like if
Speaker 2: we put both Skinner and Picard in that? Like could
Speaker 2: we cover more ground?
Speaker 1: Like a long trench shot?
Speaker 2: I'm like, just would we be able to stop them? So, yeah,
Speaker 2: I know it's always gonna be Bioroshki.
Speaker 1: H and Babrowski's gone his saves prop has gone over
Speaker 1: in all four games so far this series. Is that
Speaker 1: something you're looking at for game five or do you
Speaker 1: think that maybe this is like does anything correct or
Speaker 1: it's just over over over.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's gonna go over, but I think
Speaker 2: they're gonna raise the number and like once you're there,
Speaker 2: then you know how high will it go? Before You're like,
Speaker 2: it's just you know, even before overtimes. He has crossed
Speaker 2: the number they've put up in every game, and I'm like,
Speaker 2: I just feel like, you know, we might see a
Speaker 2: twenty seven and a half, we might see a twenty
Speaker 2: eight and a half, but probably not. I would say
Speaker 2: it's gonna bump to twenty seven.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think they're gonna they're just gonna keep
Speaker 1: pumping it up there because I think everyone's just been
Speaker 1: on those numbers and they're gonna have to start correcting
Speaker 1: them before we get into our best bets. I did
Speaker 1: want to talk to you about the NHL prop bet
Speaker 1: cheat sheet, So if you are betting on Game five
Speaker 1: tomorrow night, you need to be using the NHL prop
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Speaker 1: get daily prop bet value rankings based on projections, find
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Speaker 1: Use it now at bettingpros dot com, slash NHL props
Speaker 1: or on the Betting Pros app So I've been heavy
Speaker 1: on there for not only the NHL, but the w
Speaker 1: NBA and the NBA Finals as well. So that's where
Speaker 1: you want to be if you want to be betting props. Okay,
Speaker 1: so let's start talking about Game five. Let's start talking
Speaker 1: about our bets.
Speaker 3: Bets.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna kick it off here. I like the Edmonton
Speaker 1: Oilers at minus one twenty. I think they're the team
Speaker 1: of death. I still think they're the team that wins
Speaker 1: the Stanley Cup. I've got them to win the Cup.
Speaker 1: I've got them to win game one in the Cup.
Speaker 1: Might as well take them to win Game five as well.
Speaker 1: I think the home ice advantage is going to be
Speaker 1: just enough, and I do think they have enough momentum
Speaker 1: coming out of Florida. They get the split, it gets
Speaker 1: a game they should not have won. They're coming back
Speaker 1: home now. I like them on home ice minus one twenty.
Speaker 1: If you want to get a little bit interesting, you
Speaker 1: want plus money. Look at them to win in sixty minutes.
Speaker 1: I don't think this game goes to overtime. I am
Speaker 1: flipping the script and taking under six and a half
Speaker 1: or minus one twenty. And here's the interesting thing. If
Speaker 1: I can find a six, I might punt out of
Speaker 1: this and take over on the six. But that half
Speaker 1: a goal does mean something to me because the push
Speaker 1: potential is essentially, in my mind, a win. So you
Speaker 1: almost have sort of insurance there. But at some point,
Speaker 1: I do think in this series we will inevitably see
Speaker 1: an under six and a half. Does this game series
Speaker 1: go seven, It's very possible we could see that, but
Speaker 1: I do think this is another instant where whoever wins
Speaker 1: Game six is very likely to win the Stanley Cup.
Speaker 1: So having said that, I do think, and I always say,
Speaker 1: if the Oilers win, take the over, and again if
Speaker 1: you can get a six punt out of this and
Speaker 1: take the over six. But I do think at some
Speaker 1: point we're going to see a game where there aren't
Speaker 1: a million goals scored. I'm going to bet on not
Speaker 1: being Game five for under six and a half. And
Speaker 1: actually when I put this graphic together, the only bet
Speaker 1: that's different from the last time we did it was
Speaker 1: the under because I've got to go back to Brad Marshawn.
Speaker 1: Last time I bet it was minus one twenty. Now
Speaker 1: it's even money for him just to record a point.
Speaker 1: As I mentioned, he's got four points in this series.
Speaker 1: He had one in Game two, two in Game two,
Speaker 1: one in Game three, and he didn't get a point
Speaker 1: in Game four. I think he's going to be ready.
Speaker 1: I think he's going to play a lot of minutes.
Speaker 1: I think they're going to four Panthers are going to
Speaker 1: rely on him. So it's also sort of a safety
Speaker 1: net for myself as wealthy others don't win this game.
Speaker 1: I think that Marshaw might be a reason why. So
Speaker 1: I'm going to take Marshawan to record a point for
Speaker 1: plus one hundred. What do you got?
Speaker 2: What do I got? Well, first, I was going to
Speaker 2: my like, if you're a neutral party, if you're not me,
Speaker 2: and you want to put some money on the pl
Speaker 2: like closer to game time, when Florida is on the
Speaker 2: money line, that plus numbers is high, it's going to
Speaker 2: get I would throw it on there. And then assuming
Speaker 2: Florida's gonna score first, and then you should be able
Speaker 2: to get plus money on the oilers, like you know immediately.
Speaker 2: So if you want to like hedge a little bit,
Speaker 2: you can do it that way. I am. I'm taking
Speaker 2: the over. It's not on the slide. I just the
Speaker 2: over six and a half at home. I've tweeted it
Speaker 2: so many times at this point it feels dumb, but
Speaker 2: you know, death taxes and the over in Edmonton, Like
Speaker 2: I just feel like it's just gonna keep going the
Speaker 2: way it's going. And like I said, that four to
Speaker 2: three feel is just it's just there. It's constantly there.
Speaker 2: So so those are the two non props when it
Speaker 2: comes to props themselves. Like you said, the McDavid two points,
Speaker 2: I'm not betting that at at minus money like that
Speaker 2: just doesn't. He probably will, but I don't think it's
Speaker 2: worth that. So I'm gonna go with the two plus assists.
Speaker 2: He has a scored yet, I feel like or he
Speaker 2: hasn't towared lately. I feel like he's that he's due
Speaker 2: for that as well, but I think that the amount
Speaker 2: he's facilitating in the way that they kind of let
Speaker 2: him cross the line again last night, I feel like
Speaker 2: the two assists are there and power plays, et cetera.
Speaker 2: And tied to that, I think Evan Bouchard for an
Speaker 2: any time goal at plus four fifty is absurd. So
Speaker 2: he's on the power play, he's with McDonald or McDavid
Speaker 2: and dry Cidle and Newton Hopkins all of the time,
Speaker 2: and he shoots constantly, like you know, yeah, he only
Speaker 2: shot three. He only got three shots on goal yesterday,
Speaker 2: but prior to that it was seven goals eight or
Speaker 2: eight shots, nine shots, like, I mean, it's just he's
Speaker 2: gonna I think at some point it's going to go
Speaker 2: in again like it did in Game two. And then
Speaker 2: I put Sam squared one point each. I like both
Speaker 2: Bennett and Ryan Hurt to pick up a goal in
Speaker 2: this game, and their odds alone are not too bad.
Speaker 2: But if you put them together, then you're at plus
Speaker 2: one sixty eight. So and mostly between you and me,
Speaker 2: I just wanted to the superscript and writes stand so
Speaker 2: there's also that. But yeah, so that's why I'm rolling it.
Speaker 1: And I like to McDavid play too there to assist
Speaker 1: plus one fifty four. As you mentioned, he hasn't scored
Speaker 1: in the finals yet, and he I mean, it's not
Speaker 1: for lack of trying. He's been there. He's had some
Speaker 1: good opportunities. Last night, I had a great opportunity where
Speaker 1: he skied through a lot of the defense there. But
Speaker 1: he's been playing facilitator very very well, and he sort
Speaker 1: of let dry Sidle take over that role of you
Speaker 1: go and score these goals, and he's been perfectly fine
Speaker 1: with that. So I didn't initially have McDavid as an
Speaker 1: anytime goal scorer. I might still bet that that's something
Speaker 1: that the books might like to do a super boost
Speaker 1: on or a bet boost on, and maybe you get
Speaker 1: him for plus two hundred or over in game five,
Speaker 1: at which point I do like that. Right now it's
Speaker 1: around plus one forty. I just don't think the value
Speaker 1: is there because he hasn't scored yet, so you could
Speaker 1: say he's due. I'm going to look at it more
Speaker 1: like if I'm taking the under. I've already got a
Speaker 1: point prop there. I'm probably not going to get too
Speaker 1: heavy into the overs there, but that could all change.
Speaker 1: I also really like the strategy to of wait for
Speaker 1: the Oilers to inevitably go down. Even I should have
Speaker 1: checked what the odds were last night when they were
Speaker 1: down three to nothing after the first period, because it
Speaker 1: could have been plus six seven hundred. That that would
Speaker 1: have been I think worth a sprinkle on, and I
Speaker 1: think something to keep in mind for game five too.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it was plus six twenty. I looked
Speaker 2: at it, and again, if I hadn't had the worst
Speaker 2: week ever, I probably I might have tried it, or
Speaker 2: maybe I should have anyway, But yeah, it's uh. But again,
Speaker 2: like with if whichever team starts at plus money. I've
Speaker 2: been doing that a little bit where then I head
Speaker 2: when the other team scores first, and for sure in
Speaker 2: this one I would do it.
Speaker 1: So there you go. And on that note, that's really
Speaker 1: all we have to talk about for game five. So
Speaker 1: before we get out of here, let people know where
Speaker 1: they can find you on socials and on betting pros.
Speaker 2: All right, so on socials, on Twitter slash x, I'm
Speaker 2: at the Wonky Penguin, and on Blue Sky I'm at
Speaker 2: the Wonky Penguin. And I should probably even this up early.
Speaker 2: On betting pros because I'm betting pros. I am, it's
Speaker 2: Bettingpros dot com. You slash won Keep Penguin. There's no
Speaker 2: no so may I might talk to Blaine about that,
Speaker 2: but great to get.
Speaker 1: That fixed up. I'm at Tyler Coddium across Socials, Bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot Com, slash slash Tyler Condium. As a render. We
Speaker 1: will be back next Tuesday because there will still be
Speaker 1: more hockey as we're getting close to the end of
Speaker 1: the Stanley Cup finals here. If you're watching this on YouTube,
Speaker 1: make sure you follow and subscribe on Twitch, Twitch dot
Speaker 1: Tv slash Fantasy Pros so you can join us live
Speaker 1: next Tuesday, where hopefully we're talking about someone being on
Speaker 1: the verge of winning the Stanley Cup. So thank you,
Speaker 1: enjoy your weekend, go oilers, and we'll see you next week.
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