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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Colin Wilson,

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Speaker 1: and this is the American League edition of our MLB

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Speaker 1: season betting preview. Today, we're going to break down every

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Speaker 1: team in the American League from a win total, division

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Speaker 1: and pennant perspective. There's gonna be plenty of gambling takeaways

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Speaker 1: from the pod. Plus there's gonna be some notes on

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Speaker 1: some fantasy baseball out there. And no MLB podcast is

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Speaker 1: complete the Action Network unless we have our own MLB experts,

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Speaker 1: Sean Zarillo. On Sean, have you been integrating any dark

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Speaker 1: arts or code breaking into your previews and into your

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Speaker 1: projections for some of these teams?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually hacked into the astrosystem and install all

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Speaker 3: my projections directly from them. So we're going to be

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Speaker 3: going through some of their internal data today.

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Speaker 1: We're going to start off here with the Astros. But

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Speaker 1: you know, before we do that, we want to keep

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Speaker 1: a couple of points in mind for this podcast. When

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Speaker 1: we talk about fantasy baseball, We're not going to go

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Speaker 1: deep into you know, ADP average Draft position we're going

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Speaker 1: to talk about draft position as it relates to like

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Speaker 1: a standard five x five rodo just average draft position

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Speaker 1: about where somebody should go as far as their value. Sean,

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Speaker 1: do you have any points you want to have everybody

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Speaker 1: keep in mind as we go along.

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Speaker 4: Just three points.

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Speaker 3: When you're looking at win totals betting it at a

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Speaker 3: particular book, that book is going to be overinflated compared

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Speaker 3: to the twenty four and thirty wins that teams add

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Speaker 3: up to at the end of an MLB season. Some

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Speaker 3: books might be ten wins over, some books might be

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Speaker 3: thirty wins over. But that generally lends value in betting unders,

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Speaker 3: even before you for the fig that you have to

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Speaker 3: pay on each.

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Speaker 1: Side, because everybody likes to betton over.

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Speaker 3: Everybody gears themselves towards and over, and nobody wants to

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Speaker 3: root against the team for a season except for us

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Speaker 3: crazy people.

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Speaker 1: There's gonna be a nice little stat for the Yankees

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Speaker 1: coming up here about how much you know if you

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Speaker 1: should be taking overs or unders on teams that have

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Speaker 1: high expectations.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely so.

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Speaker 3: Defensive teams generally tend to outperform their expectations. We've seen

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Speaker 3: good defensive teams in the past, like the Rays or

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Speaker 3: the Arizona Diamondbacks the past few years really overachieving. Last

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Speaker 3: thing to keep in mind for this year with twenty

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Speaker 3: six man rosters, you know, how teams are going to

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Speaker 3: go and utilize that spot.

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Speaker 4: Do they have a two way player? It could both

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Speaker 4: pitch and hit.

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Speaker 3: Just keep in mind with the new rule, how teams

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Speaker 3: are going to deploy that twenty six man.

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Speaker 1: You know, I think Sean brings up a really good point,

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Speaker 1: especially you have to talk about teams that are defensive

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Speaker 1: because the Wacoda projections I'm not sure really ever takes

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Speaker 1: that into account, because you know, the twenty fifteen Royals

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Speaker 1: were projected at seventy two wins. They end up with

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Speaker 1: over ninety. When the World Series last year, the Twins

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Speaker 1: were projected at eighty one wins, they ended up winning

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Speaker 1: over one hundred, just outperforming everything. I think defense is

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Speaker 1: such a big part of the handicap, and we're going

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Speaker 1: to get to that more with the National League because

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Speaker 1: Castellanos and Moose possibly playing second base and third base

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Speaker 1: for a team that I love, we all love. We'll

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Speaker 1: get to that on the NL pod. But I mean

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Speaker 1: defense plays a factor here, you know, and until like

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Speaker 1: Suarez gets back, I can't even I can't imagine what

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Speaker 1: the defensive metrics are going to be for teams that

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Speaker 1: are just so offensive minded. I fly ball to center

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Speaker 1: and that balls yeah up. Then going back back to

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Speaker 1: the wall, hold run. With that said, let's roll right

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Speaker 1: into the hottest topic in Major League Baseball, which is

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Speaker 1: the Houston Astros. This team, you know, you know, all

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Speaker 1: the offseason talk with the buzzers, the trash cans, players

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Speaker 1: are now reporting and talking about how it's had a

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Speaker 1: direct effect on their season. You know, we're gonna find

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Speaker 1: I'm sure more and more will leak out about this team,

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Speaker 1: and you know, the general consensus is is how is

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Speaker 1: this going to affect some of the offensive players that

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Speaker 1: are on their team. So let's go ahead and break

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Speaker 1: it down. In twenty nineteen, their projected win total was

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Speaker 1: ninety six and a half. They finished with one hundred

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Speaker 1: and seven. Now, their pythag wins last year was one

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Speaker 1: hundred and seven. And if you're familiar with our college

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Speaker 1: football or NFL, we have second order win total, which

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Speaker 1: is kind of a cousin to Pythagora and which says

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Speaker 1: your run scored versus your runs against? Did you actually

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Speaker 1: earn the record that you have? So with the Houston Astros,

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Speaker 1: they won one hundred and seven pathag says they should

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Speaker 1: have won one hundred and seven, so they were on

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Speaker 1: par with that. But their current total right now at

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Speaker 1: Westgate is ninety four and a half. Sean you got

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Speaker 1: them projected at ninety four wins. Do you see anything

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Speaker 1: up or down about this team?

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Speaker 2: So I have.

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Speaker 4: Houston projected at ninety four wins.

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Speaker 3: That have been there since, you know, I first put

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Speaker 3: out my projections for this year. They had already lost

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Speaker 3: call by that point. They haven't done anything to necessarily

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Speaker 3: upgrade their roster. Also lost Wade Miley, lost Will Harris,

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Speaker 3: who is their most trusted reliever in the postseason. They've

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Speaker 3: kind of taken a clustered loss in their pitching department,

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Speaker 3: especially when you add in the fact that they lost

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Speaker 3: Charlie Morton last year. You know, losing two top fifteen

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Speaker 3: starters in baseball, potentially the best starter in baseball, and

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Speaker 3: Garrett Cole really takes a big hit out of them.

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Speaker 4: You never mind the fact that.

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Speaker 3: In the playoffs they really seem to be struggling for

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Speaker 3: who is going to start after Grienky in a potential

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Speaker 3: playoff series.

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Speaker 4: Now you're one starter Shy.

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Speaker 3: You have a couple of thirty seven year old starters

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Speaker 3: coming into the season with Granky and Verlander. You have

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Speaker 3: a manager who tends to overwork as pitchers and Dusty

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Speaker 3: Baker their lineup without a single pitcher on their current roster.

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Speaker 3: If you just gave them a bunch of free agent pitchers,

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Speaker 3: they're still an eighty two win team. They have the

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Speaker 3: highest projected war amongst any offensive group of players at baseball.

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Speaker 3: You know, they're also a strong defensive unit. That just

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Speaker 3: shows you it speaks to the quality of position players

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Speaker 3: on this Astros team. Ran Ovarez is potentially a Hall

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Speaker 3: of Fame hitter. I mean, he's another David Ortiz to me,

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Speaker 3: his WRC plus last year was one seventy eight. If

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Speaker 3: you had given him a full season of at bats

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Speaker 3: but that, he would have been the only hitter rank

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Speaker 3: behind Mike Trout. Kristin Yelloff was at a one seventy four.

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Speaker 3: Trout was at one to eighty, So it speaks to

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Speaker 3: his quality. They're just an extremely deep offense. They play

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Speaker 3: defense well, and you know, the only concern is just

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Speaker 3: about them taking a step back in terms of their

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Speaker 3: starting pitching. They've had plenty of cluster injuries to that

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Speaker 3: staff in recent years. Lance McCullers, you know, hasn't really

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Speaker 3: pitched more than one hundred and twenty innings. He missed

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Speaker 3: most of the last year. So rotation depth is a

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Speaker 3: big concern for them. Patch together those last three spots

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Speaker 3: in the rotation. They don't necessarily impress you in the

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Speaker 3: corner outfield as much as you think an elite team

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Speaker 3: like them would. But other than that, they're still an

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Speaker 3: elite team, and I think people tending to fade them

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Speaker 3: to all the way down to ninety four wins. I'm

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Speaker 3: starting to lean towards the over even though I'm right there.

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Speaker 1: Right Do you do you take any effect with Dusty

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Speaker 1: Baker becoming the manager. I mean, he's great for the clubhouse,

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Speaker 1: he's great for the players, but the reputation is is

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Speaker 1: he's going to run the arm off of any of

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Speaker 1: your pitchers. And that goes back to the Mark pryor

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Speaker 1: carry Wood years. And if you look at it, the

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Speaker 1: number of times he's had a pitcher where he's managed

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Speaker 1: a team and they've gone over one hundred and twenty pitches,

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Speaker 1: especially in the last couple of years with the Nats.

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Speaker 1: It had gone down tremendously over the beginning of his career, say,

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Speaker 1: when he was with the Cubs, but at the same

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Speaker 1: time he had Max Scherzer on his staff, who I

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Speaker 1: don't know if he could pull him off the mound.

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Speaker 1: Max is going to be on the mound if he

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Speaker 1: wants to. But if you saw when he got the

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Speaker 1: job here with the Astros, he claims that he follows

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Speaker 1: analytics now that he's a saber metrics guy, and it

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Speaker 1: just kind of reminds me of Mike McCarthy getting the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys job, saying, all of a sudden, he pays attention

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Speaker 1: to stats and it's going to have an effect on

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Speaker 1: how he manages and coaches a team. Do you think

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Speaker 1: it is a positive or a negative for Dusty Baker

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Speaker 1: turning the regular season and in the postseason as a manager.

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Speaker 3: I think Hinch was one of the better managers in baseball,

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Speaker 3: was at least respected in the regard that he was

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Speaker 3: a changeover sudden changeover of losing him, losing your general manager,

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Speaker 3: losing the assistant GM who were out there using analytics

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Speaker 3: to hunt for pitchers who had spin rates they thought

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Speaker 3: that they could manipulate for different reasons that I think

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Speaker 3: that's in general is a hit, But there's nothing that

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Speaker 3: you can quantify in terms of reducing their projected win

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Speaker 3: total as a result of that. Because you're expect them

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Speaker 3: to acquire lesser players in season or something like that,

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Speaker 3: you have to project them based off of what they

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Speaker 3: are now. My only remark on Baker is that if

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Speaker 3: he was giving this job so quickly and seemed to

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Speaker 3: be the front runner for it at the raise, which

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Speaker 3: is where Houston's new GM, James Cliff came from, and

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Speaker 3: the Astros are two of the better teams in baseball,

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Speaker 3: a kind of keeping a communication pipeline from the ownership

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Speaker 3: to the GM down to the manager and all having

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Speaker 3: one vision. So I'm sure it's been communicated, you know,

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Speaker 3: throughout these interviews with Baker about their plan with regards

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Speaker 3: to managing their staff, the fact that they have two

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Speaker 3: older starting pitchers who are Hall of famers but getting

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Speaker 3: up there in years, and you know, the Astros and

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Speaker 3: the Rays specifically deploy their pitchers a little bit differently,

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Speaker 3: especially the back end of their rotation than other teams.

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Speaker 3: Do they will utilize openers and bring in middle relievers.

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Speaker 4: Early than they need to.

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Speaker 3: So I think he has the resources and the infrastructure

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Speaker 3: around him to manage the staff without getting Moody injured.

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Speaker 3: But you know, it's his history, so maybe he has

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Speaker 3: changed over the years.

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Speaker 1: Well, definitely probably won't be seeing McCullers throw one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty pitches anytime early this season as far as

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Speaker 1: the lineup goes offensively. If Josh Reddick happens to have

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Speaker 1: an injury, there's a pretty good fill in that the

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Speaker 1: Astros have correct.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Kyle Tucker a former number five overall pick. He

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Speaker 3: had a thirty thirty year in the miners last year.

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Speaker 3: He was twenty twenty the year before. Even if Reddick

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Speaker 3: does what he's been doing, Tucker has a chance to

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Speaker 3: take playing time away for he's you know, another potential

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Speaker 3: start in that lineup as if they need more. But

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Speaker 3: they gladly traded away Derek Fisher, who had been kind

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Speaker 3: of in that Tucker role the past few years. They

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Speaker 3: traded him away. He touched Toronto. So now Tucker's in

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Speaker 3: the driver's seat for more playing time, and you know

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Speaker 3: he's he's one of my sleepers for fantasy of this year.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he's not much of a sleeper because he's

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Speaker 3: so well regarded and has such a high pedigree, But

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Speaker 3: I certainly think he's worth drafting and stashing under bench

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Speaker 3: in the event that he does get more playing time

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Speaker 3: because he is the potential to be a contributor across

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Speaker 3: all five categories.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, from a fantasy perspective, Kyle Tucker somebody

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Speaker 1: you're going to want to grab in a dynasty league.

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Speaker 1: He's not already taken in a keeper league. You're gonna

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Speaker 1: want to have him in a late round one year league.

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Speaker 1: This is somebody that you're going to have, going to

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Speaker 1: want to have, even if it's just four hundred played appearances.

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Speaker 1: From a pitching perspective, jose your Quiddy. His first two

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Speaker 1: starts against the Rangers and Cardinals, he went thirteen innings pitched,

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Speaker 1: had two earned runs in fifteen k's there was, you know,

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Speaker 1: a little bit of regression after that. How do we

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Speaker 1: see his development for twenty twenty.

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Speaker 3: So I'm actually a fan of Erquidy, really like his

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Speaker 3: change up. He looked really good in the player coming

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Speaker 3: out of the bullpen. But he's he's somebody who redrects

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Speaker 3: well by p Coda. You know, he is good command.

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Speaker 3: I think he's his skills should translate well to the

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Speaker 3: major league level. It's just the question of their ability.

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Speaker 3: He's not the biggest guy, So, like I said, it's

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Speaker 3: it's going to kind of be a patchwork thing with

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Speaker 3: the bottom of this astro's rotation between mcculler's or Quidy,

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Speaker 3: maybe Josh James getting in there, fra Amberveldez. So how

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Speaker 3: they allocate those innings will be really interesting to me.

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Speaker 4: But I think of all of them are Quidy as

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Speaker 4: by far the most upside.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, so Equidy and Tucker from a fantasy perspective,

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Speaker 1: and I think you got to keep your eyes on

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Speaker 1: Bregman and now two they're actually dropped in their ADP

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Speaker 1: and their value as far as some of these fantasy

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Speaker 1: drafts are concerned. I don't think that there's going to

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Speaker 1: be that big of a difference in what they've done

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Speaker 1: in the regular season in the playoffs versus what they're

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Speaker 1: going to do this season. So maybe look some for

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Speaker 1: some value. If some astro players are dropping in your drafts.

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Speaker 1: Here's Scott Rowland. Here's one in the deep left field back,

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Speaker 1: and that's going to take us to their biggest contender,

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Speaker 1: what we think in the AL West, which is the

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Speaker 1: Oakland Athletics. Now, last year their win total was set

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Speaker 1: by Vegas at eighty three and a half and their

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Speaker 1: twenty nineteen wins came out to ninety seven, completely surprised

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Speaker 1: everybody with a season like that, and their twenty nineteen

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Speaker 1: PATHAG came out to ninety seven. Now they were in

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Speaker 1: ninety five. Their PATHAG was ninety five and twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 1: So this is nothing new for the Oakland A's. This

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Speaker 1: is a team I have completely believed is always built

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Speaker 1: to dominate in the regular season, not really built to

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Speaker 1: be in the postseason. Tell me what you see with

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Speaker 1: the A's.

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Speaker 4: I'm at ninety one wins on the A's.

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Speaker 3: Clay Davenport, whose projection I referenced before for the ash

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Speaker 3: Rosie does excellent projections, former editor, I believe with baseball

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Speaker 3: perspectives he's at eighty three for the A's, which is

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Speaker 3: one of the biggest differences between our two projections. But

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Speaker 3: I'll note that he was in eighty five and seventy

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Speaker 3: six the past two years and they won ninety seven

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Speaker 3: games each of the past two years. So maybe it's

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Speaker 3: one of those teams that he whatever method he's using,

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Speaker 3: has a more difficult time projecting. I have similar trouble

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Speaker 3: with Milwaukee, Colorado, Tampa Bay just because they do things

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Speaker 3: a little bit differently or playing different environments.

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Speaker 4: Than other keys.

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Speaker 3: Due so that's where I tend to find my biggest

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Speaker 3: discrepancies from the market. But you know, Bob Belvin, one

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Speaker 3: of the better managers in baseball, been there since twenty

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Speaker 3: eleven with Billy Bean. This team hasn't added any pieces.

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Speaker 3: If anything, they lost stuff. They lost trin In Homer, Bailey,

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Speaker 3: Brett Anderson, Tanna Roark, but nothing of major significance. But

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Speaker 3: you know, when you're talking about the open A's, you

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Speaker 3: start with Matt Shapman and Matt olsend at the Coiners.

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Speaker 3: It's probably the best corner infield doing baseball. Chapman the

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Speaker 3: best defender on the planet. Come at Wim with you're

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Speaker 3: Nolan Ironado hot takes. I don't care. Chapman is better.

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Speaker 3: Olsen led first basement of DRS, he was plus eighteen.

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Speaker 3: Chapman led all players in DRS he was plus thirty four.

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Speaker 3: I believe he's also he's only played for two and

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Speaker 3: a half seasons, but over the past three years he's

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Speaker 3: second in MLB and DRS. So just the fact that

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Speaker 3: he's only played that extra half season and is well

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Speaker 3: ahead of many players who have played three full seasons

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Speaker 3: speaks to his quality. And then the other thing is

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Speaker 3: arm strength that really stands out with me. With the

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Speaker 3: A's Chapman as a cannon, but Ramon Loreano and center

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Speaker 3: there do catcher Sean Murphy behind the plate.

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Speaker 4: All these guys have absolute gun.

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Speaker 3: So I don't know if this is something that the

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Speaker 3: A's are specifically scouting for, but it really jumps off

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Speaker 3: the page when you watch their games.

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Speaker 4: These guys can just whip the ball around.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, in case you don't know if you're not an

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Speaker 1: A's fan, which you know, I've gone to a few

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Speaker 1: games out there in the O dot Co and they

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Speaker 1: have such a passionate fan base for the ones that

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Speaker 1: are there watching these guys roam the outfield, they have cans.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's worth a YouTube visit for Ramone Loreano.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's a couple of prospects in this system.

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Speaker 1: There's some guys that have had injury. AJ Puck is

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Speaker 1: a guy that I was a pot on years before.

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Speaker 1: I think the second he got into the Oakland system,

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Speaker 1: it was somebody that I wanted in my Dynasty League.

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Speaker 1: So you know, two years ago I was happy to

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Speaker 1: hop on him. He's had injury since then, it looks

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Speaker 1: like he finally has a clean bill of health. What's

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Speaker 1: the outlook for the lefty AJ Puck.

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Speaker 3: I haven't heard anything about an innings limit for other

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Speaker 3: puckler Zarto, So I think Puck is certainly a guy

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Speaker 3: I'm extremely high on. I think that's part of the

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Speaker 3: reason why we're both so high on this A's team

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Speaker 3: is we see the vast potential with these two lefties

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Speaker 3: to be top of the rotation pitchers.

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Speaker 4: So Puck is six foot seven, He's a lefty.

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Speaker 3: When you think about that height and him already throwing

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Speaker 3: ninety seven and getting extra extension towards the plate, you're

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Speaker 3: talking about perceived velocity closely were over one hundred miles

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Speaker 3: an hour. So it's not just the fact that he

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Speaker 3: throws ninety seven, it's the fact that he's so tall

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Speaker 3: and gets so much extra length towards the plate, and

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Speaker 3: he's got a plus plus slider on top of that.

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Speaker 3: So Puck is a guy I'm going to be targeting

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Speaker 3: in drafts. I think even if he doesn't, you know,

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Speaker 3: throw one hundred and eighty two hundred innings, even if

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Speaker 3: he's giving you one forty to one fifty, he's going

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Speaker 3: to be extremely valuable.

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Speaker 4: Put up good ratios, probably get some wins. Puck is

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Speaker 4: your guy.

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Speaker 3: Hazels Lozardo, who's their other lefty, is is my single

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Speaker 3: favorite prospect in baseball. He's probably my single favorite prospect

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Speaker 3: since I started following baseball as closely as I have.

347
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Speaker 3: I got a chance to watch one of his single

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Speaker 3: A starts right after he came over to the A system.

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Speaker 3: He was in the Sean Doolittle Ryan Madsen trade from

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Speaker 3: the Nationals, and it was one of the most impressive

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Speaker 3: pitching performances I've ever seen.

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Speaker 4: Fastball. He throws a slurve.

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Speaker 3: Like breaking ball, but fastball, change up his breaking ball,

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Speaker 3: working at all levels, complete command, just blowing dudes away.

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Speaker 3: He pitched in the Wildcard Game last year and threw

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Speaker 3: three shutout dominant innings. His favorite pitcher growing up was

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Speaker 3: Jahun and Santana. It's pretty evident when you watch him

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Speaker 3: he kind of has a similar style. He's got a

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Speaker 3: good build. I think this is a number one starter

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Speaker 3: in the making if he stays healthy.

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Speaker 1: It's safe to say that you and I both like

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Speaker 1: Oakland a lot. But they did wipe out three of

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Speaker 1: the catchers that they had in the rotation last year.

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Speaker 1: Do we have to worry about, you know, who's going

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Speaker 1: to be framing the pitches and who's going to be

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Speaker 1: catching all these guys?

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Speaker 3: So I actually really like Sean Murphy open as a

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Speaker 3: loaded system and he's yet another top prospect, but he's

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Speaker 3: got a really good short swing, compact swing, a little

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Speaker 3: bit of power upside.

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Speaker 4: His carrying card is defense.

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Speaker 3: So I think you know, they know full well what

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Speaker 3: they were doing by turning over all three of their

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Speaker 3: catchers was Chris Herman, Fegley and Dustin Garnell, and now

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Speaker 3: they're rolling with Austin Allen and Murphy.

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Speaker 1: You know, one problem that the Oakland Aays have is

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Speaker 1: is just power in general, Like they don't have much

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Speaker 1: outfield power. They're kind of built for the ballpark they have.

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Speaker 1: But one guy who I think is going to have

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Speaker 1: a major bounce back is Chris Davis. I mean Chris

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Speaker 1: Davis with a K He's played one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: plus ball games with forty plus home runs for three

383
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Speaker 1: years straight before he had an injury. He came back

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Speaker 1: from his injury last year and he'd lost two miles

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Speaker 1: per hour off of his exit velocity and his launch

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Speaker 1: angle was a lot lower. And I just think that

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Speaker 1: when he came back from injury last year, I don't

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Speaker 1: think he was completely healthy for an extended period of time.

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Speaker 1: It took him a few weeks to even get a

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Speaker 1: ball over the fence. I think he played the remainder

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Speaker 1: of the season hurt. Hopefully the offseason he can adjust

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Speaker 1: his launch angle, get the velocity, the exit velosity back

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Speaker 1: on his swing. But I think Chris Davis is a

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Speaker 1: great bounce back candidate.

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Speaker 3: I certainly agree with that. You know, he physically looked

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Speaker 3: uncomfortable during their wildcard game.

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Speaker 4: He just didn't look like himself.

398
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Speaker 3: And he had been a model of consistency prior to that,

399
00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,640
Speaker 3: batting two forty seven exactly every single year, you know,

400
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:56,560
Speaker 3: heading around forty home runs. With even pro rating his

401
00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,520
Speaker 3: home run totals back to when he was with Milwaukee,

402
00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:01,520
Speaker 3: he was already it's always basically a forty home run

403
00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,399
Speaker 3: a year guy, so new Ball not concerned about that,

404
00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:06,400
Speaker 3: you know, and that should only aid him if anything,

405
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Speaker 3: And I certainly agree a reduced price, Chris Davis could

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Speaker 3: be a league winner.

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Speaker 4: I believe split a.

408
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Speaker 3: Share of the A's a plus four hundred, but there

409
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Speaker 3: are some plus four fifties out there.

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Speaker 4: I think that's an extremely actionable price. I like it.

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00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,080
Speaker 3: I believe I have their chances down at a round

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Speaker 3: plus two hundred, you know, thirty three percent or we're

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Speaker 3: around there. So the A's and the Angels is we'll

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Speaker 3: get to in a second. Both have a good chance

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Speaker 3: of upsetting the Astros here. But of the two, I

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Speaker 3: really prefer Oakland. I think their pitching is just significantly better.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely co sign on that. So if you're

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Speaker 1: in New Jersey, I think both draft kings. I think

419
00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,520
Speaker 1: Sugarhouse and Pennsylvania they're both offering that plus four fifty.

420
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Speaker 1: But I completely agree that I like the Oakland Days

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Speaker 1: to win the AL West, especially man, if the pitching

422
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Speaker 1: is on par and healthy, it's going to be something

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Speaker 1: late night watching TV in the summer is going to

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Speaker 1: be fantastic.

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Speaker 5: Davis HiT's one high tip to right field back goes

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Speaker 5: pitch up there.

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Speaker 4: I believe.

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Speaker 1: Let's roll intwo and do the Angels. Since we mentioned

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Speaker 1: the Angels team that had a twenty nineteen win total

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Speaker 1: set by Vegas at eighty two and a half, they

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Speaker 1: underachieved with seventy two wins. The THAG says that they

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Speaker 1: should have had seventy two wins. Westgate has an eighty

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Speaker 1: six and a half. Where is your projection, Sewan.

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Speaker 3: I'm at eighty seven, Davenport's at eighty eight, so you know,

435
00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 3: all right around there. The thing with the Angels, though,

436
00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,160
Speaker 3: is that they're driven so much by their top two players.

437
00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,399
Speaker 3: When you project them out, especially based on mar Trout

438
00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,760
Speaker 3: is plus eight point eight, Rendons plus five point six,

439
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:37,320
Speaker 3: and I think those are just projections.

440
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:39,760
Speaker 4: So their fourth in position.

441
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 3: Player war but so much of that is yeah, mean,

442
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,520
Speaker 3: forty percent of that is contingent upon Trout and Rendon

443
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:47,760
Speaker 3: Andrelton Simmons.

444
00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:48,840
Speaker 4: Really carries it with his defense.

445
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,800
Speaker 3: But Poolhols has been a negative player for the past

446
00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:52,240
Speaker 3: three years.

447
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,480
Speaker 4: I believe he's been worth negative two points stays.

448
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:56,639
Speaker 3: The wins above replacement over the past three years is

449
00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:00,080
Speaker 3: WRC plus has been seventy seven ninety to ninety three

450
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,280
Speaker 3: and he's making a ton of money, so you're talking

451
00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 3: about all of this money that could have been reallocated

452
00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,440
Speaker 3: towards Garrett Cole. That is just sitting in a pool

453
00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 3: of Albert poolhos, you know, being tied up. They were

454
00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:12,560
Speaker 3: able to get Rendon, but it's possible they could have

455
00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:14,760
Speaker 3: gotten both Rendon and Cole had pool hosts not been

456
00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 3: on the roster. So he's just an anchor kind of

457
00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 3: weighing everything down and they can't really do much about it.

458
00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:22,399
Speaker 3: You know, we'll get into pitching in a second, but

459
00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:26,959
Speaker 3: it's really a stark contrast between their line of quality

460
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:27,959
Speaker 3: and their pitching quality.

461
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:30,919
Speaker 1: The one thing that is interesting to me is Mike Trout,

462
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 1: especially from a fantasy perspective, because I don't think there's

463
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:35,719
Speaker 1: really much of a debate. I mean, there's some really

464
00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:37,719
Speaker 1: good players at MLB that he's hanging out with up

465
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,080
Speaker 1: at the top of the fantasy rankings. But Trout has

466
00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:42,080
Speaker 1: mentioned not stealing bases as a way for him to

467
00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,200
Speaker 1: keep healthy. He had only just eleven stolen bases last season,

468
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 1: and he hasn't played more than one hundred and forty

469
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 1: games since twenty sixteen, and he cut an interview where

470
00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 1: He said that he feels like stealing bases and that

471
00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,679
Speaker 1: part of his game is probably contributing to some of

472
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,560
Speaker 1: his injury. Is Trout from a fantasy perspective or to

473
00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 1: the Angels in general, as far as their production on offense,

474
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 1: does it take a little bit of a hit because

475
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 1: he's a He's moving up to the two hole. I

476
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:06,880
Speaker 1: think with Rendallan signing, they're probably going to slot him

477
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,680
Speaker 1: at the three. Cole Calhoun has gone, They're going to

478
00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:11,720
Speaker 1: slot Trout at the two. That kind of takes an

479
00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 1: effect on his RBIs And if he's not going to run,

480
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 1: it's just a different kind of looking office. I wouldn't

481
00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,240
Speaker 1: bag on the Angels office and say it's you know,

482
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:21,680
Speaker 1: I mean, they definitely have the firepower from the sticks,

483
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 1: but I just don't think there's going to be as

484
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 1: much running from Trout. So from a fantasy perspective, I'm

485
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 1: not sure if he's going to be the number one

486
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 1: overall player from an offensive perspective by the end of

487
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 1: the season.

488
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, a line of perspective, you know, Angel's real life perspective,

489
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 3: moving him up to two or him not running doesn't

490
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:38,479
Speaker 3: really impact how I view that team. Fantasy perspective, it

491
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:41,399
Speaker 3: makes me consider taking Acuna over him at one the

492
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 3: first pick. We're in an era of fantasy baseball where

493
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 3: everybody can hit for power, and steals are such a

494
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 3: commodity that even a few steals is so much value

495
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 3: a little on a guy like Akunya, who could steal thirty,

496
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:54,199
Speaker 3: So that could be a differentiator at the top of

497
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:54,720
Speaker 3: your drafts.

498
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:56,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, and with rend On behind him, they've got to

499
00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 1: pitch to him, right, I mean you can. You can

500
00:20:58,359 --> 00:20:59,959
Speaker 1: pitch around Mike Trout all you want, but you're not

501
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 1: to get away from avoiding a huge hitter. So you

502
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 1: have to wonder if he sees more pitches than he

503
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,760
Speaker 1: usually does. As far as our pitching goes. Julio te

504
00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,359
Speaker 1: Hayron comes in, Dylan Bundy comes in. You know, I

505
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 1: was really surprised. I thought that Garrett Cole, there was

506
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:14,639
Speaker 1: a real good chance that Garrett Cole would end up

507
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 1: with the Angels. Instead, here we are with ta Heyron

508
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:19,440
Speaker 1: and Dylan Bundy anchoring the staff. What do you see

509
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:20,400
Speaker 1: from this pitching staff?

510
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 4: So Andrew het he was really good down the stretch

511
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 4: last year.

512
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,400
Speaker 3: He had a fourteen percent swinging strikerrate in the second

513
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 3: half Bundy I initially was super concerned about. I thought

514
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:31,120
Speaker 3: Angel Stadium would be a good fit for him because

515
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 3: he was such a fly ball pitcher, and I realized

516
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 3: that he's actually become more a groundball pitcher, especially towards

517
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 3: the middle to the end of last year, which is interesting.

518
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 4: He's trended towards a groundball profile.

519
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:43,119
Speaker 3: And when you combine that with Simmons and Rendon and

520
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 3: their spectacular and field defense David Fletcher, if he's playing

521
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 3: second base, that's a really interesting combination because if you're

522
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:50,719
Speaker 3: talking about less five balls leaving the guard for Bundy

523
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,480
Speaker 3: and more balls being on the ground that really good

524
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 3: defensive infielders could clean up, he could have a surprising season.

525
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 3: Haron never been a huge fan of But you know

526
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 3: the guy I like on that staff is probably Griffin Canning.

527
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 3: Really a high upside arm, fourteen percent swinging strike eight.

528
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:07,399
Speaker 3: I said that he and got there last year and

529
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 3: that was, you know, in the second half in the

530
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 3: best market his career. Canning was the first year pitcher

531
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 3: high pedigree, good stuff. I think there's a chance he

532
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 3: takes another step forward and we're looking at him as

533
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:18,640
Speaker 3: the best pitcher on the staff by the end.

534
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 1: Of the year. Yeah, Canning's definitely got the canine ratio

535
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,120
Speaker 1: that want the one to one ratio and above, and

536
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 1: you know, cutting down on his walks. He's definitely on

537
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:27,919
Speaker 1: his way as sending on this pitching staff. You actually

538
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: like a future on these guys, right, I kind of

539
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:31,679
Speaker 1: stopped at the alst with the Oakland Day's. But you

540
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 1: liked the Angels just as well, Right.

541
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:34,120
Speaker 4: I didn't bet it yet.

542
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 3: I just think there's certainly solid value in the number.

543
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 3: Have the projection for them closer to plus four hundred.

544
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 3: Probably a combination of me being down on the Astros

545
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 3: and down on the Rangers.

546
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 4: People are giving the Rangers more credit than I think

547
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 4: they deserve. We'll get to that in a minute.

548
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 3: But I think the fact that the Rangers are attracting

549
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 3: some attention is taking away people betting on the Angels

550
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 3: when they should have more value on them. So again,

551
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:58,639
Speaker 3: we mentioned teams that are good defensively overachieving. This looks

552
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 3: like a potentially spectacular defensive infield. Not really sure what

553
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 3: they're going to be in the outfield. That Jock Peterson

554
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 3: trade didn't go through, so he won't be part of

555
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 3: that outfield mix. But if they bring up Joe Adell,

556
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,360
Speaker 3: who's their top prospect and one of the best prospects

557
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 3: in baseball, they could have a not only an electric

558
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,360
Speaker 3: outfield with him in trout, but also very good defensive outfield.

559
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 3: So this could be one of the best defensive teams

560
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 3: of baseball.

561
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree there. So Sean has this. He has

562
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 1: their value a little bit over plus four hundred for

563
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:25,680
Speaker 1: them to win the division. So plus eight hundred would

564
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 1: offer plenty of values. So be on the lookout for

565
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 1: that number, because you know, some of these numbers are

566
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 1: just so overinflated. Some of these wind totals are over inflated,

567
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,959
Speaker 1: and some of these division values are overinflated, just because

568
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,239
Speaker 1: everybody likes to betting over and everybody likes to bet

569
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 1: the favorites this time of year.

570
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 5: Hey, thankless job wallfly ball left field Brown getting chased

571
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 5: at the wall, leaks and makes the catch.

572
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 1: We mentioned the Texas Rangers. Let's get into them. They're

573
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 1: playing in a new park. I know that. Even when

574
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 1: they announced the new park and they announced the dimensions,

575
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 1: I was already looking to see exactly how much foul

576
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 1: territory we had to see if we're going to compliment

577
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 1: any of these pitchers that we have, you know, as

578
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,399
Speaker 1: far as their numbers are, twenty nineteen win total by

579
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 1: Vegas was said at seventy one. They finished twenty nineteen

580
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,199
Speaker 1: with seventy eight wins. Pathak says they should have come

581
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 1: in a little bit lower. It's seventy five wins. Westgate

582
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,239
Speaker 1: has them at seventy nine point five. Where is your

583
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 1: win total for the Texas Rangers.

584
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 4: I'm at seventy five. Davinport is at seventy four.

585
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 3: I think this is a commination of people seeing the

586
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,959
Speaker 3: Corey Kluber trade and expecting that, along with their other

587
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 3: rotation editions Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, to have them take

588
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 3: a step up, potentially in a Wildcard contention this year.

589
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 3: I see a team that overachieved, that has one of

590
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 3: the worst position player groups in baseball, a horrendous defensive team,

591
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,880
Speaker 3: and a couple of pitchers who likely overachieved and are

592
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 3: due to rest this season, in addition to a terrible

593
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 3: willpend Commenting on the field dimensions, real quick also need

594
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 3: to note that that stadium is going to have a

595
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 3: roof on it, and stadiums with roofs are significantly lower

596
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,679
Speaker 3: scoring than outdoor stadiums, and during in the summer, the

597
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 3: Astros almost never have the roof open.

598
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 4: They pretty much close it from May on. So if we're.

599
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,200
Speaker 3: Playing all indoor games in Arlington, once it gets hot out,

600
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 3: we're going to see a very reduced run scoring environment

601
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 3: there and possibly really benefiting the pitchers but also hurting

602
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:19,919
Speaker 3: their fantasy value of their hitters.

603
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 1: It's funny you mentioned that it's kind of nice if

604
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 1: they have a roof. As somebody that's been to almost

605
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,439
Speaker 1: every single MLB park, I think the left field of

606
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 1: the ballpark in Arlington was possibly the hottest place on earth.

607
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 1: Like if you get sent to Hell at the end

608
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 1: of your life, it would be the left field bleachers

609
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 1: of the ballpark in Arlington because the sun comes down.

610
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 1: Even though it's one hundred and five in the Dallas

611
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 1: Fort Worth area, it's actually feels like about one hundred

612
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 1: and twenty five in those bleachers. So it's kind of

613
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 1: nice they have a roof. Maybe I can take the

614
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 1: family there for once the outfield dimensions have changed a

615
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 1: little bit. They're trying to honor the former Rangers numbers

616
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 1: that have retired for instance, down the left field line,

617
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 1: it's a three twenty nine. That twenty nine is for

618
00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: Adrian Beltray. Johnny Oates is down the right field line,

619
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 1: it's three twenty six to honor his number twenty six.

620
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 1: The biggest change in the field dimensions between Globe Life

621
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 1: Park and the new Globe Life Field is the left

622
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 1: field power alley. At once was three ninety now it's

623
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 1: three seventy two. It looks like there's a little bit

624
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 1: more foul territory behind third base into the seats there,

625
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 1: so that is an advantage for the pitchers. Corey Klueber,

626
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 1: you know, let's talk about him a little bit. I

627
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 1: don't think that this is a healthy version of Corey Klueber,

628
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: and I think that's a big reason why maybe we're

629
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 1: kind of on the down with the Rangers. Correct.

630
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you just have to look at how

631
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 3: the Indians approached it. They traded him so aggressively and

632
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 3: so quickly after the season ended. They got a return

633
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 3: that pretty much any fan of a rival team was

634
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,479
Speaker 3: shocked that their team wasn't in on the Coory Kluber

635
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,440
Speaker 3: market based upon the fact that they traded him for

636
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 3: the lineup de Shields junior in a mount of place,

637
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:57,640
Speaker 3: who's a reliever, potentially a high leverage reliever. But at

638
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 3: the same time it seemed like an underwhelming pack for Klueber.

639
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 3: He's making I believe, seventeen and a half million dollars

640
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 3: this year, projects for about two wins, and even before

641
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,120
Speaker 3: he broke his forearm last year, there was some concerning

642
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 3: signs slightly reduced velocity. Fipp was a little bit increased,

643
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 3: you know, he wasn't striking out guys at the same level.

644
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 3: There wasn't anything significantly different from his twenty eighteen, which

645
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 3: was very successful. But I think you have to look

646
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 3: at the way that the Indians got him off their

647
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 3: roster as quickly as they could.

648
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 4: I think that's as big of an indicator as anything.

649
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 3: Very little chance that we're seeing Cy Young clubat popping

650
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 3: up right back away.

651
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,239
Speaker 4: In Texas lanceln is still their best picture to make.

652
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 1: From a gambling standpoint, I was fading Mike Minor as

653
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:43,880
Speaker 1: much as I possibly could after May because the ex

654
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 1: FIP was just so far off from the era he

655
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 1: was just it was like a luck box outing every

656
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 1: time that he got out. What's the outlook for Minor?

657
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 1: And you mentioned Lynn. What's his outlook for the season.

658
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, so Lynn was a product of positive adjustments, a

659
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 3: guy you know, taking his best stuff and throwing it

660
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 3: more often while also seeing a velocity uptick after injury.

661
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 3: So I think Linn is pretty rock solid. This is

662
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,360
Speaker 3: the new normal for him going forward. I think he's

663
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:09,159
Speaker 3: you know, an all star caliber pitcher. Miner is a

664
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 3: different story. Miner is a guy who is the season progressed,

665
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 3: became very apparent by the metrics that he was outperforming.

666
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,120
Speaker 3: This is a converted reliever who's had multiple arm injuries

667
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 3: reaching his late thirties, with I believe one year left

668
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 3: on his deal and indicators out there that suggest he's

669
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 3: you know, closer to a number four pitcher than a

670
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 3: number two pitcher. So I think that's how you have

671
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 3: to treat him going forward. Don't bet on this guy

672
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 3: like he's a top of the rotation arm. Bet on

673
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 3: him like he's more of a replacement level arm.

674
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 1: One player that has turned around their career, or I

675
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 1: should say, maybe kicked off their career is Danny Santana.

676
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 1: What do we expect from him this year?

677
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 4: Santana's interesting.

678
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 3: So that guy won me a fantasy league back in

679
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 3: twenty fourteen, and then he was off the radar for

680
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 3: five years, put up negative two war and return last

681
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 3: year with Texas and put up a twenty twenty season,

682
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 3: And if you look at projections for this season, he's

683
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 3: pretty much projected to go twenty twenty.

684
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 4: Again with like a two five average.

685
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:04,479
Speaker 3: So if you're looking a guy, people might doubt what

686
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 3: he did last year.

687
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 4: I think it's sustainable.

688
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 3: He's a poor defender, he doesn't really offer nearly as

689
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 3: much rural world value as he does in terms of fantasy,

690
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 3: But I think what he did was very repeatable, and

691
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 3: he's got a unique skill set, and you know, the

692
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 3: power allies might play to his advantage.

693
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the power ally is a good point

694
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 1: with Danny Santana. So if you look at his spray

695
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 1: chart as a switch hit or he just he crushes

696
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 1: lefties for line drives and home runs the left center.

697
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 1: Remember what I said about Globe Life Field that they've

698
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 1: shortened the porch from three ninety to three seventy two

699
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 1: on the fences. That could be a big benefit for

700
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 1: him to sustain what he does from a power perspective.

701
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 1: So I definitely like Danny Santana and what numbers he

702
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 1: can put up this season. It's funny you mentioned his defense,

703
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 1: Like this team is just I don't think they look

704
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 1: at defense at all whatsoever when they're going out and

705
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 1: getting players the Willie Calhouns of the world. I mean,

706
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 1: is there anything that we should be looking at here,

707
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 1: you know, as far as from a fantasy perspective, or

708
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 1: from maybe any individual players, as far as some of

709
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 1: the certain stats that they could put up.

710
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 3: You know, you mentioned Willie Calhoun. He's one of my

711
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 3: favorite prospects as well. I guess he's not a prospect

712
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 3: anymore at this point because he's been out for a

713
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 3: few years. But he is a rare combination of power

714
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 3: and contact. He whiffs seven percent of his time last year,

715
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 3: which is unfathomable almost for any major league hitterer, let

716
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 3: alone a guy who could hit thirty or more home runs.

717
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 3: So he's a pretty rock solid four and some good upside.

718
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 3: He was the main return for U Darvish a few

719
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 3: years ago from Texas, so they've been biding their time

720
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 3: with him and working on his attitude. But I think

721
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 3: he is a real chance to have a huge season,

722
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 3: really surprising people. But like you said, this Texas defense

723
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 3: is an absolute mess. Put up negative fifty two defense

724
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 3: runs saved last year as one of the worst totals

725
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 3: in baseball. They only rank ahead of the Orioles and

726
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 3: Marlins in terms of position player wins above replacement. Potentially

727
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 3: a Wildcard attending team. They have guys like Todd Frazier

728
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 3: and that lineup and veterans who aren't necessarily impressive who

729
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 3: standal lose playing time.

730
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 1: So we're definitely bearish on the Texas Rangers. We know

731
00:30:57,800 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 1: that there's an eighty and a half out there we've

732
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 1: currently been offered to. Will Hill definitely would suggest probably

733
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 1: a Texas Rangers under there.

734
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 5: He hits one high toward left field, back near the

735
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 5: wall is sam a cut by Grippy.

736
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,719
Speaker 1: We're going to move on to a team that number

737
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 1: is low. I think it should be lower. I'm not

738
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:19,719
Speaker 1: sure the direction of this team. I'm not sure how

739
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 1: many years it's going to take to get them back

740
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 1: on track. I'm talking about the Seattle Mariners. So their

741
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen win total was projected at seventy one point

742
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 1: five by Vegas. They ended up with sixty eight wins.

743
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 1: Their PATHAG says that they should have won sixty nine.

744
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 1: They started off the season thirteen and two. If everybody remembers,

745
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 1: the Mariners were hot. Everybody was rushing to bet this

746
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 1: blazing Seattle Mariners team. Fish the season fifty five and

747
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 1: ninety two after that start after April eleventh. So what

748
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 1: do we see in the Seattle Mariners this year? With

749
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 1: a Westgate wind total of sixty seven and a half.

750
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I had their over seventy one and

751
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 3: a half last year, so I felt pretty good when

752
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 3: we were at thirteen to two and then watch that

753
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 3: disintegrate with them course of a month. So I met

754
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 3: sixty seven wins of the Mariners this year, so pretty

755
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 3: much in line.

756
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 4: With the market. Davenport's at sixty eight. They're in full

757
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 4: rebuilding mode.

758
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 3: You know, there's not a part on this roster that

759
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 3: they can trade that they won't be willing to, especially

760
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 3: with Jerry Depoto at the helm. Jerry's one of the

761
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 3: most active traders amongst all gms, usually has seven to

762
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 3: ten trades a year in them. So the one guy

763
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 3: who probably will get traded this year is Kyle Seeger.

764
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 3: Kyle was extremely effective down the stretch. He hit two

765
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 3: to eighty with seventeen homers, nine to forty one ohps

766
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 3: after July twenty second. He had broken his hand earlier

767
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 3: in the year, so he really bounced back after that

768
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 3: hand injury. But this is, you know, the team that's

769
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 3: completely reloaded itself through those trades that the POTO has

770
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 3: been making in the past couple of years. The James

771
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 3: Paxton trade to the Yankees that Robinson could no trade

772
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 3: to the Mets. They've totally loaded up this farm system.

773
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 3: I believe they have six top one hundred prospects now.

774
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 3: They locked up Evan White's going to be a first

775
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 3: basement for them before he's even hit the big leagues.

776
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 3: There's upside and an intrigue in this Mariners team, but

777
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 3: probably not until twenty to twenty one.

778
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 4: I think this year is going to be another disaster.

779
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, And you know what the thing is the Seattle

780
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 1: fans up there. One of my closest friends, he lives

781
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 1: up there in Seattle, and we go to the games

782
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 1: and we have one of those terrible Seattle dogs. I

783
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: don't understand putting cream cheese and a hot dog, and

784
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: I don't understand eating grasshoppers and left field at that

785
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 1: canteena bar either, but I have to say that it

786
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 1: does seem like they are years away from contending or

787
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 1: doing anything. Keith Law had them last year rank twenty

788
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 1: second farm system a year ago. We'll see what those

789
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 1: rankings are when they come out, but I don't think

790
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 1: they're going to be much higher. But they are definitely

791
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 1: planning for the future. Kyle Seger get to get back

792
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 1: to Kyle Seger. He is certainly going to be traded,

793
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 1: especially if he can put up any kind of numbers whatsoever.

794
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 1: They have plenty of youngsters, but I think why I

795
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 1: like the under on this team, even though our projections

796
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 1: are right there with where the Vegas number is. The

797
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 1: reason why I like this is because it's not just

798
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 1: a bunch of young players. It's a bunch of young

799
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 1: coaches also. So what they've done is is they fired

800
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 1: their their pitching coach, Paul Davis, after one season. They

801
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 1: had a four nine ninet era. I think they gave

802
00:33:57,960 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: up the fourth most amount of homers, which is impressed

803
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 1: for the park that they play in. And the thing

804
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 1: is is they didn't go out and find another pitching coach.

805
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 1: They elected to promote a bunch of assistant coaches from

806
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 1: the farm League, so from Tacoma or from Double A, Arkansas.

807
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:14,760
Speaker 1: Everybody kind of just got to bump up the ranks.

808
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 1: So not only are the pitchers young, but the coaching

809
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,919
Speaker 1: staff has got some familiarity with the players, and it's

810
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 1: just a new job for everybody, and that kind of

811
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 1: makes me want to fade these guys. I just there's

812
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 1: no way in the world they're going to be buyers

813
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,440
Speaker 1: at the break. There's I mean, they're going to be

814
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 1: the one team at least that the Rangers may be

815
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:35,359
Speaker 1: sellers also, but in this division, there's just no chance

816
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 1: for them whatsoever. They're definitely going to be sellers if

817
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:39,240
Speaker 1: they can get anything out of any of the starters

818
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 1: that are currently in there. We could talk about some

819
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 1: of their you know, they're good attributes, but there's a

820
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 1: lot of weaknesses here right the pitching, the defense, and

821
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 1: Mitch Hanniger. What's going on with Mitch Haniger.

822
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, he doesn't have a timetable, so he had a

823
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,439
Speaker 3: core muscle injury. He's their best player. I mean, there's

824
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 3: no way that they're going to rush them, especially if

825
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 3: they're going to lose another ninety two hundred games. So

826
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 3: I would pretty much write off Haniger until the middle

827
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 3: of the season, if not later. I wouldn't anticipate on

828
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:05,399
Speaker 3: getting much production out of him this year, so that

829
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 3: they you know, that just leaves more opportunity for their

830
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 3: youngsters to potentially develop in the big leagues. But like

831
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 3: you said, you know, they're pitching is a huge weakness,

832
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 3: and honestly, you know, you would like to see if

833
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 3: you're a Mariners fan, you would like to see that

834
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 3: your organization as a plan in a direction. They just

835
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 3: extended Marco Gonzalez and he had a five eleven ex

836
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 3: fit last year, you know, three ninety nine year ray

837
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 3: or whatever. But he's one of those like throwback pitchers

838
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 3: that you enjoy watching because he just throws strikes and

839
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 3: like is crafty and like finds ways to get dudes

840
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 3: out in an era where everybody strikes people out. But

841
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 3: at the same time, every single performance metric is telling

842
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 3: you that this guy is not worthy of being on

843
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 3: a major league team, and you extend them. So what

844
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 3: does that tell you in terms of, you know, their

845
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,720
Speaker 3: plan going forward, how they evaluate players. It just seems

846
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 3: to all be backwards. They're also horrendous defensively, only team

847
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 3: who was better defensively than the Orioles last year who

848
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 3: were negative ninety five or unsaved were negative ab eight,

849
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 3: which is a huge reason that they were so poor.

850
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 3: They've kind of shuffled around their outfield mis They got

851
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,399
Speaker 3: him Go Santana out of there, even though I've heard

852
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 3: that they might resign him, but Malex Smith being in

853
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 3: the outfields certainly helped clean up some things. I think

854
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 3: their offense will take a step back without Santana in

855
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 3: there and without some of the power guys that they

856
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 3: had in their last year. You're you're replacing more veteran

857
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:23,399
Speaker 3: hitters with younger hitters who were developing. You might get

858
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,839
Speaker 3: a little better defensively, but this rotation is a horror show.

859
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 5: You know.

860
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 1: For the Mariners, I'm going to go in the under.

861
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 1: It's not a strong play, but it's just something that

862
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 1: has to do with the youth of the team, the

863
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 1: direction of the team, who they're signing. Their interleague play

864
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,720
Speaker 1: is with the NL East. They're hosting the Braves and Phillies.

865
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 1: They have to go visit the Marlins and Mets. So

866
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 1: that accounts for you know, for twelve games, there is

867
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 1: not going to be so easy. When rosters expand on

868
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 1: September first they have they start off with a ten

869
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 1: game road trip, so that's something for the expanded roster

870
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 1: to have to deal with there.

871
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 4: How awful was their bullpen last year?

872
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 3: I mean it's I can't remember a team blowing more

873
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 3: saves than one season. I don't know if that was

874
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 3: actually the case, but in terms of games that I

875
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 3: bets on, I can't imagine a team had ever blown

876
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,880
Speaker 3: more says and crucial situations or close games than that

877
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:06,760
Speaker 3: Murders roster.

878
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 1: I don't know what the mojo that they had a

879
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,240
Speaker 1: couple of years ago with that bullpen is completely gone.

880
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 1: It's just a bullpen, they can't hold a lead and

881
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 1: a defense that can't help them out. So small investment

882
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 1: on the Mariners under So that'll wrap it up for

883
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,720
Speaker 1: the AL West. Both Seawan and I like the Oakland

884
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,799
Speaker 1: A's to possibly take the division. Sean likes the Angels too.

885
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:28,839
Speaker 1: The number is just completely inflated on them pacing. That's

886
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 1: thass that's going to take us to the AL Central,

887
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 1: you know, home of the teams that I probably watched

888
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 1: the most sing as I live in flyover states, I

889
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 1: always think it's funny that MLB network blacks out like

890
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 1: almost every single team it's been within five hundred miles

891
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 1: of my actual home. We're going to start off with

892
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Twins. Twenty nineteen win total set by Vegas

893
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 1: was at eighty four. They finished with one hundred and

894
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,240
Speaker 1: one wins. Pathag says that they should have won ninety

895
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 1: seven one hundred and one wins last year. Sean, what

896
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 1: is your projection for them as the Westgate has them

897
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 1: at ninety one and a half right now.

898
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'm at eighty nine. Davenport also at eighty nine.

899
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 3: I was at eighty four earlier in the offseason, pre

900
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:13,480
Speaker 3: Donaldson signing, pre Mieta trade.

901
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 4: So I think Minnesota's really made some strides.

902
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 3: To put themselves right back where they were last year,

903
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 3: ahead of where they were at the beginning of last season.

904
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 3: I believe that I was projected closer to eighty two

905
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 3: inch around this time last year, So you know, this

906
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 3: team is ferocious offensively. They broke the major league home

907
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 3: run record last year with three undred eight home runs,

908
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:36,479
Speaker 3: third in position player war projected this year.

909
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 4: They brought back most of their key pitchers.

910
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:43,720
Speaker 3: Odarezi Paneda was the worst victim of bad.

911
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 4: Defensive luck last year, so he's certainly something to keep

912
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:47,839
Speaker 4: an eye on. This year. He pitched very well.

913
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,759
Speaker 3: He was just harmed by ill timed fielded balls or

914
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 3: balls in play getting through.

915
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 4: Really interested.

916
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 3: Amongst this group of power hitters that they have with

917
00:38:56,560 --> 00:39:01,879
Speaker 3: Donaldson and Snow and Rosario and Kepler, they have Luis Arayez,

918
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 3: who led the major leagues technically in batting average last year.

919
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 3: He hit I believe three thirty five, didn't qualify for

920
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 3: the batting title, but he struck out twenty nine times

921
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 3: and walk thirty six times, which you do not see.

922
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 3: You don't see guys anymore walking more than they strike out.

923
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,319
Speaker 3: I mean, that's a throwback number, and to do it

924
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 3: with such a high average. He was doing it within

925
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 3: field hits and such, and he's not projected as a

926
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:27,320
Speaker 3: three hundred hitter going forward. He was the number seventeen

927
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:28,800
Speaker 3: prospect in Minnesota system.

928
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:29,799
Speaker 4: When you can have.

929
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 3: A guy who can move the chain along like that

930
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:34,439
Speaker 3: amongst a group of power hitters, I think that that's

931
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 3: a differentiator, you know, having a DJ Lemayhew amongst the

932
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 3: Yankees lineup who can put the bat on the ball

933
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:44,799
Speaker 3: and drive runners in like everybody's.

934
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 4: So one dimensional now in twenty twenty, I.

935
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 3: Think having those guys who could extend the lineup and

936
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 3: pass the baton and keep the rally going are important.

937
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 3: So a Rise's development is something I'm going to be

938
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 3: really keeping a close eye on this year.

939
00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree that the offense on this team is

940
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 1: one of the in the league by far. Last year

941
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 1: the Twins finished first in ISO, they were second in

942
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 1: w RC plus, and that was against lefties in twenty nineteen.

943
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 1: Then they add in Josh Donaldson and if there's one,

944
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:12,120
Speaker 1: I think you and I were having a conversation pre

945
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 1: pot about you know, who's going to hit the most

946
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 1: home runs on this team? And I love Mitch Garver.

947
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:20,319
Speaker 1: I mean he moved from from a defensive standpoint, Mitch

948
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:22,880
Speaker 1: Garver catching. He moved from fifty fourth and twenty eighteen

949
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 1: to thirty third and twenty nineteen in framing or what

950
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:28,800
Speaker 1: we call turning non swinging strikes into cald strikes in

951
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 1: the shadow zone. So you know, if you can frame

952
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 1: a pitch and get your pitchers some more strikeouts and

953
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 1: more strikes, that's going to be beneficial to the entire team.

954
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:39,240
Speaker 1: And Mitch Garver thirty third isn't the best in the world,

955
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 1: but a bump up almost over twenty spots says that,

956
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:44,759
Speaker 1: you know, there could be even more improvement for Garver

957
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 1: as a framer, and he hits a ton of home runs,

958
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 1: so he's big for them. But there are a number

959
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 1: of players on this team that can jack the ball.

960
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:54,879
Speaker 1: Sean who's going to win the home run title off

961
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:55,320
Speaker 1: this team?

962
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:57,239
Speaker 3: So I have bets on sinew at one hundred and

963
00:40:57,280 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 3: one and Nellie at eighty one. I think those are

964
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 3: both really viable bets. I'm concerned now about to know,

965
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 3: maybe getting playing time taken away or being too low

966
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 3: in the lineup.

967
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:09,880
Speaker 4: It looks like they have sloted eighth.

968
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 3: He hit like all of his home runs in four

969
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 3: months last year, so if you pro write that out

970
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:16,799
Speaker 3: over a full season, you're talking about a fifty home

971
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 3: run fifty hine to five home run guy. If I

972
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 3: have to pick one, I'll say so just because the upside.

973
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 3: But I can't disagree with your pick.

974
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to go with Nelson Cruz on you.

975
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 1: I mean, he's just so consistent every year. People just

976
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 1: knock on him for being, you know, for his age,

977
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:30,840
Speaker 1: but I think that that kind of plays into the

978
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 1: number that you can get on him winning the home

979
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 1: run title, not just for this team, but I think

980
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 1: in general in Major League Baseball, I think Nelson Cruz

981
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 1: is worth a home run home run title here. I

982
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 1: feel the AL Central is similar to what we saw

983
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 1: with the NL Central last year, where all the teams

984
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 1: collectively were much better. Now, I'm not going to sit

985
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:49,880
Speaker 1: here and rant and rave about the Royals and the Tigers,

986
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,240
Speaker 1: but there are three teams in this division that should

987
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 1: finish over five hundred. How does the Minnesota Twins pitching

988
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 1: staff stack up against that?

989
00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 4: I guess I would put them two out of three.

990
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,839
Speaker 3: Probably put the Indians and then the Twins and then

991
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 3: the White Sox in order, if you're just ranking by

992
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 3: pitching staffs. Barrios is a guy that everybody loves and

993
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 3: he's fun to watch, and I'm a big fan of

994
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,839
Speaker 3: his as well, But he doesn't rate as well by

995
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 3: performance metrics as you would expect him to. For the

996
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 3: guy who's featured as the top of the rotation guy,

997
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:20,319
Speaker 3: he's probably closer to a number two or number three

998
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 3: starter than he is an ace. Then behind him, Maida

999
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 3: I think was a huge addition for them. Mayada is

1000
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 3: pretty rock solid, gives you one hundred and fifty innings

1001
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 3: of you know, like a three five earra every year

1002
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:32,440
Speaker 3: somewhere around there. So Mayada was a big pickup, and

1003
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 3: I think that that certainly bumped their projection up a

1004
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 3: little bit.

1005
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 4: Oderezi improved his fastball last year.

1006
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 3: I think, like Lynn, he's a guy who optimized himself,

1007
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:43,840
Speaker 3: improved his fastball, so he's he's kind of at a

1008
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 3: new level. But then beyond that, it's really where the

1009
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 3: question marks come in. So it feels like a lot

1010
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 3: of these teams in al or a lot of teams

1011
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 3: at baseball have three very effective starters and then there's

1012
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:54,279
Speaker 3: a huge drop off and they kind of have to

1013
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:56,240
Speaker 3: figure it out from there. You know, if they sustain

1014
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:58,360
Speaker 3: an injury to somebody like Barrios, Maida is not going

1015
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 3: to give them hundred innings. You know, they're gonna have

1016
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 3: the manufactur innings there. It's a little shaky and it's

1017
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 3: a little bit overrated, i'd say, probably compared to what

1018
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 3: you think they are. But this lineup's going to carry

1019
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:11,319
Speaker 3: the day and they should certainly be in contention for

1020
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:11,760
Speaker 3: the division.

1021
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 4: If not make wild card of Minmoe.

1022
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:15,320
Speaker 1: It's Nicey and Richell on the roster. For those of

1023
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 1: you who play fantasy and playing quality starts leagues, that

1024
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 1: guys the king of going five and two thirds and

1025
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 1: not quite getting the quality start that you need out

1026
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 1: of him. He's one of the most frustrating players to

1027
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 1: ever own in fantasy history. You know, Vegas Westgate has

1028
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 1: him at ninety one and a half and Shawn's got

1029
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 1: him projected at eighty nine. There's just there's a little

1030
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: bit too much love for the Twins in the market.

1031
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:35,120
Speaker 1: Here is you can get them to win the division,

1032
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 1: win the Al Central minus one sixty five, but the

1033
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:40,439
Speaker 1: fair odds that Sean sets is plus one thirty three.

1034
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 1: So definitely there's just too much love on Minnesota, right.

1035
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think so.

1036
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 3: You know, I took an underbet on them at ninety

1037
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:51,400
Speaker 3: when they were in the again in the pre Donaldson

1038
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 3: point of their offseason. I should have just realized that

1039
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:56,319
Speaker 3: they were already all in. You know that that's really

1040
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 3: something you have to read with these teams. Like we

1041
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:00,720
Speaker 3: discussed before, the the obvious contender is in the obvious

1042
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 3: sellers like it should be. From that point, obvious which

1043
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:05,319
Speaker 3: teams to stay away from or which way you should

1044
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:07,799
Speaker 3: lean based upon that info. So it's a bet that

1045
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:09,320
Speaker 3: if it was still at ninety I'd be trying to

1046
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 3: buy out of I think I'll just ride it at

1047
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 3: this point, but I don't see any value on the

1048
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 3: other side of it.

1049
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 5: Off the green light they do when he hits it

1050
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 5: in the air to center field. Kenny lofton trying to

1051
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 5: time the jump in he cat.

1052
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 1: So talking about another team in Yale Central that should

1053
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:29,359
Speaker 1: finish above five hundred, but their window is closing pretty fast.

1054
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 1: As the Cleveland Indians. They had a twenty nineteen win

1055
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:34,839
Speaker 1: total set by Vegas at ninety one. They ended up

1056
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 1: with ninety three wins. Pethag says that they should have

1057
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 1: won ninety three games. West Kate currently has eighty five

1058
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 1: and a half, lower than what they achieved last year. Shawn,

1059
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:44,920
Speaker 1: your projections at eighty five? What do we see with

1060
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 1: the Indians?

1061
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:48,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm at eighty five. Davenport's also at eighty five.

1062
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:52,879
Speaker 3: The Indians are one of the most consistently overachieving organizations

1063
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 3: in sports. They probably do more with less than just

1064
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 3: about any other organization in baseball. Maybe stay for Tampa Bay.

1065
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:03,280
Speaker 3: They're a general manager factory. Keep that in mind because

1066
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:06,800
Speaker 3: you consistently see general managers or executives from around the

1067
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:09,319
Speaker 3: league hired from Cleveland, which means they're probably thinking at

1068
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 3: a higher level or doing things that are smarter and

1069
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 3: a little bit different than the other teams. So I

1070
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 3: feel like they're a team that constantly gets underrated. They

1071
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 3: were maligned for the Kluber trade, but then you look

1072
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:20,400
Speaker 3: at their roster and you're like, yeah, why shouldn't this

1073
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 3: team win the Al Central. They still have a very

1074
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 3: effective rotation. Clevenger is one of the top pitchers in baseball.

1075
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 3: Bieber is just as good, or not better than Clevenger,

1076
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 3: Carlos Carrasco when he stays healthy. I mean Carlos Carrasco

1077
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 3: had leukemia last year, but the two years before that

1078
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 3: he had stayed completely healthy. That's a big three rotation

1079
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:38,919
Speaker 3: as far as I'm concerned. That's rotation that can carry

1080
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 3: you through a playoff run. Then behind that you have

1081
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 3: Aeron Savalu Zach Fleisach, who I think are both effective.

1082
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 4: Their bullpen's really good. We talked about.

1083
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:49,400
Speaker 1: Except for Adam Plutko, right, I think I've lost so

1084
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:51,719
Speaker 1: much money on Adam Plutko, Let's keep him out of

1085
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:52,799
Speaker 1: the bullpen's really good.

1086
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 3: That's a guy that bet home run props against. He's

1087
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 3: got a major home run issue. Speaking of which he was,

1088
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 3: Pluco was on the a UCLA rotation with Trevor Bauer

1089
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 3: and Garrett Cole, So just imagine how you feel his

1090
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 3: pluck out now watching the success that Bauer and Kohl

1091
00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 3: are having the big leagues and you can barely get

1092
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 3: big league hitterers out. They still have Francisco Lindor, they

1093
00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 3: still have Josey Ramirez. You know, they have the best

1094
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,360
Speaker 3: west side of the infield in baseball. Maybe the bottom

1095
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 3: of their lineup's a bit concerning, but other than that,

1096
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:24,319
Speaker 3: they look exactly like the Cleveland Indians teams that we've

1097
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:26,360
Speaker 3: seen trotted out over the past few years. And I

1098
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 3: don't see any reason why they can't continue to contend

1099
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:31,400
Speaker 3: for a title, especially with Francona and the consistency that

1100
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 3: they have at their front office.

1101
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 1: I think that this is a stay away from me, though,

1102
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:36,200
Speaker 1: and the reason is because I don't know what they're

1103
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 1: trying to do with Francisco Lindor. His name is just

1104
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 1: being dropped all the time, and I know that they want,

1105
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 1: you know, they want a ship full of gold just

1106
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 1: to land in Cleveland and give them the farm from

1107
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:49,959
Speaker 1: some other team, not that anybody has really a farm

1108
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 1: to offer. I think they're asking price for Lindor is

1109
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 1: really high, but still, I mean, if Mookie Betts can

1110
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 1: be moved and attached to David Price, then obviously Francisco

1111
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 1: Lindor can be moved. At the break, if they're say,

1112
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 1: five games to the Twins, you know this is a

1113
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:04,880
Speaker 1: team I just I don't think I can get behind

1114
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:06,839
Speaker 1: because I have no clue what their direction is going

1115
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 1: to be. If they flinch and they're down a few games,

1116
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 1: you know, around the All Star break, is there a

1117
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:13,160
Speaker 1: Do you think there's a good chance at Lindor is

1118
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:14,880
Speaker 1: still around at the end of the year or is

1119
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 1: you think it's going to completely be determined by how

1120
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 1: they finish up this season.

1121
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 3: From what I gathered based upon reports, it seemed pretty

1122
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:23,279
Speaker 3: definitive that he was going to be traded, don't I

1123
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:25,439
Speaker 3: don't think they have the money to sign him, and

1124
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:28,520
Speaker 3: they need to get a maximum return for him or

1125
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 3: maximize whatever they can at this point, So I would

1126
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:35,200
Speaker 3: expect that unless they are directly in the division lead

1127
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 3: or seriously involved, you'll see him traded. If they're just

1128
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,480
Speaker 3: kind of huddling around five hundred, I think we'll get flipped,

1129
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 3: which I agree is a reason to avoid the win total.

1130
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:46,720
Speaker 3: You know, even if they do trade Lindoor, or especially

1131
00:47:46,719 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 3: if they trade Lindoor, this team becomes more underrated than

1132
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 3: they should be.

1133
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:52,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, Roberto Perez is the best framing catcher in the

1134
00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 1: AL twenty nineteen. He converted fifty one point seven percent

1135
00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 1: of non swinging strikes into called strikes in the shadow zone.

1136
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:01,920
Speaker 1: So definitely something keep in mind. You know, Cleveland came

1137
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 1: out with a cold start last year. They started off slow.

1138
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:06,359
Speaker 1: So it's just something where I'm going to stay away

1139
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 1: because I think this is an organization in general that's

1140
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:10,160
Speaker 1: had their chances to win the World Series, and I

1141
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 1: just they're stable and they can contend. But if they

1142
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 1: fall behind, I'm just not sure how much they're going

1143
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:16,279
Speaker 1: to sell off. And they know they have to sell

1144
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:19,480
Speaker 1: off lindor they'll get nothing for him and fuddled.

1145
00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 5: Let's see at the air center field, Gomez at the wall,

1146
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:27,239
Speaker 5: Gomez leaps.

1147
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:30,280
Speaker 1: Let's jump into a team that we project to finish

1148
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 1: over five hundred. You and I both love and money

1149
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:34,800
Speaker 1: down on them, and that'd be the Chicago White Sox.

1150
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,319
Speaker 1: In twenty nineteen, they had a projected win total is

1151
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 1: seventy four. They finished with seventy two wins last year,

1152
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:43,319
Speaker 1: and Pathag said sixty nine, So they didn't achieve what

1153
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:45,400
Speaker 1: Vegas had set out for him, and Pathag said that

1154
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:47,759
Speaker 1: they should have been even worse. Now they projected at

1155
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:50,000
Speaker 1: eighty four and a half. Your projection has the White

1156
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 1: Sox at eighty five. What's changed for this team? You know,

1157
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:55,319
Speaker 1: they haven't achieved what the win total was last year,

1158
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 1: yet we're projecting them much higher than what they finished.

1159
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:00,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, so these were your twenty twenty off season. So

1160
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:02,799
Speaker 3: I don't know when the prey is schedule, but they'll

1161
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:03,600
Speaker 3: throw before opening.

1162
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 4: Damn sure.

1163
00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 3: Interesting situation, right because I bet they're under last year

1164
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 3: And I said that the only way that they would

1165
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:13,719
Speaker 3: go over was if they saw significant improvement from Mankata,

1166
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:18,000
Speaker 3: significant improvement from Giolito and Eli Jimenez gave them a bunch,

1167
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 3: and they got all of that and still finished with

1168
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 3: sixty nine ones. They went out the San Dia Asmani

1169
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 3: grondalve Edwin and Carnassio and traded for no Mar Mazzara,

1170
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:28,880
Speaker 3: signed Dallas Kichel, signed Gio Gonzalez, Dines the EU seeshek

1171
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:32,879
Speaker 3: they lost like Ivon Nova and Yolmar Sanchez, So you're

1172
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 3: talking about a solid fifteen wins of replacement that they

1173
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 3: added to this roster, in addition to the potential development

1174
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 3: of those young players that we mentioned, what I consider

1175
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 3: one of the best pitching coaches in baseball and Don Cooper,

1176
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 3: who could continue to work with this rotation. I saw

1177
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,839
Speaker 3: really encouraging signs from Ronaldo Lopez last year. He had

1178
00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 3: a four point eight fifth in the second half, three

1179
00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:53,360
Speaker 3: to one strike.

1180
00:49:53,160 --> 00:49:54,080
Speaker 4: Out to walk ratio.

1181
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 3: This rotation is filled with guys who all throw between

1182
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 3: ninety seven and ninety nine miles an hour, if not hard,

1183
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 3: especially when.

1184
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 4: They get Michael Kopak back.

1185
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 3: If they get Radan back as well, you're talking about

1186
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:07,959
Speaker 3: five guys who throw a ninety five and above, which

1187
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:12,360
Speaker 3: is even in an era where we're in, is beyond impressive.

1188
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 3: So they know exactly what they are on the pitching side.

1189
00:50:15,680 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 3: But then you flip to the offensive side, they have

1190
00:50:17,680 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 3: the chance to add Louse rovert to their lineup. He

1191
00:50:19,640 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 3: was thirty thirty. He was the youngest three hundred and

1192
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 3: thirty thirty in the miners last year since nineteen sixty one.

1193
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 3: So that's that alone is telling. They signed him to

1194
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 3: a sixty or fifty million dollar extension. They've got a

1195
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 3: few other high level prospects that are pretty much on

1196
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:35,560
Speaker 3: the cusp of the majors. Nick Madrigal, the primary of

1197
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:39,080
Speaker 3: which a two time College World Series champ. He's putting

1198
00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:42,320
Speaker 3: up historically high contact rates in the miners.

1199
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 4: Pakota loves him.

1200
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 3: The ninetieth percentile projection on Pakoda for Madrigal had him

1201
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:52,440
Speaker 3: hitting I believe three fifteen, so he's He's put up

1202
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:54,080
Speaker 3: a forty four to sixteen.

1203
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,480
Speaker 4: Walked to strikeout ratio in the miners. That's absurd. It's

1204
00:50:56,560 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 4: video game numbers.

1205
00:50:57,840 --> 00:51:00,440
Speaker 3: The Twins are certainly a better team, but I think

1206
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 3: the White Sox of.

1207
00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:02,120
Speaker 4: A higher upside.

1208
00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:06,040
Speaker 1: The Osmon and Grondel signing, I think is bigger than

1209
00:51:06,080 --> 00:51:09,400
Speaker 1: anybody can realize because he's top five almost every season

1210
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 1: and runs extra strikes and we talk about framing. That's

1211
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:14,279
Speaker 1: all about framing, and he is a big boost as

1212
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 1: far as creating strikes in the shadow zone. So I

1213
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 1: think that is a huge boost for them. It's a

1214
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:21,600
Speaker 1: huge boost for this pitching staff. The problem that I

1215
00:51:21,600 --> 00:51:24,840
Speaker 1: have is Gie Gonzalez, Dallas Kaikeel, especially Dallas Kaikele, he

1216
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:26,880
Speaker 1: needs defense behind him. Do we have that with the

1217
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:27,440
Speaker 1: White Sox.

1218
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:30,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, so they're they're kind of swapping out one gold

1219
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:34,239
Speaker 3: Glover for another, potentially with with Stanchez for Madrigal once

1220
00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:37,520
Speaker 3: Madrigal comes up. The rest of the defense is a

1221
00:51:37,520 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 3: bit concerning. They were negative fifty six and drs in

1222
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen. They were pretty bad at catcher though, so

1223
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:45,040
Speaker 3: a lot of that was their catching spot, and Grendel

1224
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:47,200
Speaker 3: is going to fix a little bit of that. Ela

1225
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 3: is not a good defender, so I think that leads

1226
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 3: into part of it too. You know, jose of Brave

1227
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:52,839
Speaker 3: is a little bit old, a little bit, a little

1228
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:53,320
Speaker 3: bit stiff.

1229
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 1: He likes to be a DH. He likes to add

1230
00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:56,720
Speaker 1: him eat and DH spot.

1231
00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:57,120
Speaker 4: And that's the problem.

1232
00:51:57,160 --> 00:51:58,560
Speaker 3: They seem like they have a bunch of dhs on

1233
00:51:58,600 --> 00:52:00,520
Speaker 3: this team, especially with Mazzarre as well. Mazzar is not

1234
00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:03,960
Speaker 3: a good defender also, Anderson, I think is closer to average,

1235
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:06,960
Speaker 3: so it's not a good defensive team. I don't compare

1236
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 3: to Zach Wheeler, who they were initially pursuing. Kikele is

1237
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 3: such a such a worse signing for the fit of

1238
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:15,080
Speaker 3: their team. The thing about Kykeel that most people don't get.

1239
00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:18,360
Speaker 3: In addition to the ground balls, he's incredible at pickoffs,

1240
00:52:18,560 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 3: he's incredible at defense. He's the pitcher who's doing all

1241
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:23,839
Speaker 3: the little things that you don't notice, and that's where

1242
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:25,840
Speaker 3: his value comes in. So even as you see the

1243
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:28,760
Speaker 3: strikeout rate continuing to fall, like he's doing other things

1244
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:31,759
Speaker 3: that does provide value, even though he's not your traditional

1245
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:35,359
Speaker 3: twenty twenty like big strikeout pitcher. So Kykel's interesting. I'd

1246
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 3: be more concerned about you Gonzalez. Gonzalez's skills have kind

1247
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:40,239
Speaker 3: of fallen off the table, so the back end of

1248
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:42,560
Speaker 3: their rotation, like I said, until Redon gets back, could

1249
00:52:42,560 --> 00:52:44,799
Speaker 3: be a little bit, a little bit shaky. The one

1250
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:47,200
Speaker 3: thing I really love about this team is the Cuban flavor.

1251
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 3: Grondal Abreu Robert like, this is the Cuban national team.

1252
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:54,080
Speaker 3: There's something super exciting about that. I love when teams

1253
00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:57,319
Speaker 3: of an identity, and Edwin brings so much personality to

1254
00:52:57,360 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 3: the table as well. I feel like this team is

1255
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:02,000
Speaker 3: just going to have so much personality this year, and

1256
00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 3: they're even if they're not going to win the World

1257
00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:06,759
Speaker 3: Series or win the AL Central, they're gonna be fun

1258
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 3: to watch.

1259
00:53:07,360 --> 00:53:09,439
Speaker 1: Edwin Canarson on I think, I think that is the

1260
00:53:09,480 --> 00:53:12,120
Speaker 1: fantasy player that you want to target because he's going

1261
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:14,280
Speaker 1: to go really low in drafts, but he's a reliable

1262
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:16,040
Speaker 1: source of home runs, and home runs are you know,

1263
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 1: can be hard to find, especially we don't know what's

1264
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:19,879
Speaker 1: going on with the ball this year. He's a guy

1265
00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:22,439
Speaker 1: that always drops because of his DH eligibility and because

1266
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 1: of his age and leagues you know, and guaranteed great field.

1267
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 1: It was top ten and home runs three of the

1268
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:30,680
Speaker 1: last four years per Park Factors. And I contractually can't

1269
00:53:30,680 --> 00:53:32,960
Speaker 1: say anything bad about Dallas Kyklo as a former razorback.

1270
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:35,200
Speaker 1: So we love this team. You know, you and I

1271
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:38,880
Speaker 1: were both on this for you know, World Series Division,

1272
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:41,440
Speaker 1: and we kind of feel like everybody else is caught up.

1273
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:43,080
Speaker 1: We still have the feeling that this is the team

1274
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:44,520
Speaker 1: that we like in the ALE Central. Correct.

1275
00:53:44,880 --> 00:53:47,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's an eighty two and a half out there

1276
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:47,840
Speaker 3: at MGM.

1277
00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:49,880
Speaker 4: I would I would bet the over on that. You know,

1278
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:51,759
Speaker 4: that's the smallest.

1279
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:54,120
Speaker 3: Gap between a projection in and over that I would bet.

1280
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:55,800
Speaker 3: But that's that's how I feel about this team. I

1281
00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:58,480
Speaker 3: feel very strongly about the White Sox. You know, as

1282
00:53:58,520 --> 00:54:00,719
Speaker 3: the market consensus is kind of up to us, so

1283
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:02,839
Speaker 3: it's become a little bit more nervous about the fact

1284
00:54:02,880 --> 00:54:04,520
Speaker 3: that we have such a strong position on them. But

1285
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:07,759
Speaker 3: jumping in at seventy five hundred early was something we

1286
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:09,960
Speaker 3: probably should have max bet and then props opt. Maybe

1287
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:13,000
Speaker 3: we have some plus five hundred division plus seventy five

1288
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:15,320
Speaker 3: hundred World Series, so I have over eighty one and

1289
00:54:15,320 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 3: a half on a win total. Like I said, if

1290
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:18,520
Speaker 3: you can get over eighty two and a half, lets they'll

1291
00:54:18,520 --> 00:54:18,799
Speaker 3: play it.

1292
00:54:19,080 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, Sean is on the East Coast and I happened

1293
00:54:21,600 --> 00:54:23,920
Speaker 1: to be in Vegas when all these baseball numbers started popping,

1294
00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:26,840
Speaker 1: and we left with an NL bet, and we definitely

1295
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:28,360
Speaker 1: left with a White Sox bet. We'll talk about the

1296
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 1: NL bet on the NL pod, but yeah, the White

1297
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:31,880
Speaker 1: Sox were one of the first ones we jumped on.

1298
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:33,879
Speaker 1: But I missed the days where these wind totals would

1299
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:35,920
Speaker 1: come out around the same time, where pitchers and catchers

1300
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:38,480
Speaker 1: would report, Nope.

1301
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:42,240
Speaker 2: Long way to the wall in center field here.

1302
00:54:42,200 --> 00:54:43,680
Speaker 4: And Tyson.

1303
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:45,400
Speaker 2: Level.

1304
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:48,760
Speaker 1: But we will move on to a team that has

1305
00:54:49,120 --> 00:54:51,520
Speaker 1: no chance of winning the AL Central, no chance of

1306
00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:54,480
Speaker 1: winning the AL, and no chance of adding a third

1307
00:54:54,480 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 1: World Series flag to the beautiful Kaufman Stadium, and that

1308
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 1: is the Kansas City Royals. Twenty nine team wins were

1309
00:55:01,600 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 1: at fifty nine. They were projected by Vegas last year

1310
00:55:04,040 --> 00:55:06,640
Speaker 1: at sixty nine and a half, so they massively underachieved.

1311
00:55:06,719 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 1: The fact says that they should have got to sixty four,

1312
00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:11,280
Speaker 1: so they finished five games lower than what run scored

1313
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:14,120
Speaker 1: runs against dictate right now. Westgates got them at sixty

1314
00:55:14,160 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 1: four and a half. Sean, I should be betting an

1315
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:18,959
Speaker 1: over on my guys. You have them projected at sixty six.

1316
00:55:19,239 --> 00:55:20,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, break up the Royals.

1317
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:23,799
Speaker 1: Huh yeah with Mike Ntheni is the manager. Sure, I'm

1318
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 1: running to the window right now.

1319
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:27,160
Speaker 3: High wind total last year sixty nine and a half.

1320
00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:28,799
Speaker 3: I think that was a product of the rest of

1321
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:31,799
Speaker 3: the division being so terrible. Minnesota was not considered to

1322
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:34,400
Speaker 3: be the team that they are now. Cleveland was roughly

1323
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:36,719
Speaker 3: like eighty six eighty eight wins, so it was such

1324
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:39,319
Speaker 3: a low division projection in general, you kind of had

1325
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:42,360
Speaker 3: to allocate the wins somewhere, and Texas also wasn't considered

1326
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:44,200
Speaker 3: to be as bad or worse than the Orioles.

1327
00:55:44,239 --> 00:55:45,760
Speaker 4: So landscape's changed.

1328
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:48,840
Speaker 3: But pretty much everybody has either gotten significantly better or worse.

1329
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:51,880
Speaker 1: They had the loss of Salve Alex Gordon continues to

1330
00:55:51,880 --> 00:55:54,080
Speaker 1: be at duds. I mean the fifty nine wins, I

1331
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 1: mean there was injury involved. It was Jos's last year,

1332
00:55:57,040 --> 00:56:00,080
Speaker 1: the wit, Maryfield and try we have always thought what

1333
00:56:00,120 --> 00:56:01,239
Speaker 1: it's going to be tradeing matter of me as a

1334
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:03,319
Speaker 1: new contractor or not. But yeah, I mean I can

1335
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:05,359
Speaker 1: see why Pethag is sixty four and they finished at

1336
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:07,960
Speaker 1: fifty nine. But you're right, I mean, nobody knew Minnesota

1337
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:09,359
Speaker 1: was going to be as good as they were.

1338
00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:11,640
Speaker 4: Like the Royals have an identity.

1339
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 3: They have a top four in their lineup that can rake,

1340
00:56:14,520 --> 00:56:18,800
Speaker 3: and they're a competent group. Mindus, Hunter Dozer like those

1341
00:56:18,880 --> 00:56:20,040
Speaker 3: those seem like guys you.

1342
00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:21,160
Speaker 4: Could build around with. Solaire.

1343
00:56:21,360 --> 00:56:23,480
Speaker 3: Solaire hit forty eight home runs last year. If he

1344
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:26,440
Speaker 3: didn't realize yeah, I mean, it's it's something that people

1345
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:28,080
Speaker 3: have been waiting on for a few years. Him to

1346
00:56:28,080 --> 00:56:30,719
Speaker 3: finally bust out. The power metrics were there that supported

1347
00:56:30,719 --> 00:56:33,720
Speaker 3: it in terms of average Egson velocity, and it finally happened.

1348
00:56:33,800 --> 00:56:35,960
Speaker 3: Dojer was a first round pick. He had sixty five

1349
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:38,080
Speaker 3: extra base hits last year. He was twenty five percent

1350
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:40,600
Speaker 3: above average as a league, you know, in terms of hittings.

1351
00:56:40,640 --> 00:56:42,799
Speaker 4: So they have a few guys who can rake.

1352
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:46,320
Speaker 3: If you're a DFS player, those those Solaire, dojer mondesssy Stacks.

1353
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:48,480
Speaker 3: There's going to be days where those guys completely go

1354
00:56:48,520 --> 00:56:51,360
Speaker 3: off with one another. It's just the fact that is

1355
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:53,759
Speaker 3: Mike Montgomery. They're a number one starter. I mean, is

1356
00:56:54,040 --> 00:56:54,879
Speaker 3: that a real thing.

1357
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:57,759
Speaker 1: When Solaire was acquired from the Cubs, there was a

1358
00:56:57,880 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 1: huge hole in his swing, and they work tirelessly to

1359
00:57:01,160 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 1: try to fill the gap in it, you know, and

1360
00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:05,719
Speaker 1: I think they finally did that. You know, mom, to

1361
00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:09,000
Speaker 1: see whether it's Roul or al Deroberto is he keeps maturing.

1362
00:57:09,040 --> 00:57:10,560
Speaker 1: I mean, I've seen him since he was a double

1363
00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:13,760
Speaker 1: A in Arkansas that he is becoming a multi tool player.

1364
00:57:13,840 --> 00:57:16,560
Speaker 1: That is, you know, he's he's really special to this organization.

1365
00:57:16,680 --> 00:57:21,160
Speaker 1: But offensively, You're right, they have their identity there about

1366
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:22,919
Speaker 1: what they're going to do, and you know, we'll talk

1367
00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 1: more about Doser and what we think he can do

1368
00:57:24,640 --> 00:57:27,480
Speaker 1: from a home run standpoint, but pitching wise, I mean,

1369
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:29,959
Speaker 1: we made notes about this pre pod. I'm not sure

1370
00:57:29,960 --> 00:57:31,880
Speaker 1: Brad Keller is it. I mean, I really have my

1371
00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:34,360
Speaker 1: doubts about Brad Keller. Jonas is a different story, But

1372
00:57:34,440 --> 00:57:36,200
Speaker 1: Keller is the one I'm really nervous about.

1373
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:39,000
Speaker 3: He's always like intrigued makers of the velocity and the

1374
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:41,560
Speaker 3: body type, and he seems like he should be better

1375
00:57:41,560 --> 00:57:42,040
Speaker 3: than he is.

1376
00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:43,520
Speaker 4: He just can't get the whips.

1377
00:57:43,560 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 3: He did have a good second half last year, Like

1378
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:47,360
Speaker 3: I was, of course betting him in the first half

1379
00:57:47,360 --> 00:57:49,000
Speaker 3: of last year, but he was terrible and then jumped

1380
00:57:49,000 --> 00:57:50,600
Speaker 3: off and he was great in the second half. So

1381
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 3: I'm still in wait and see mode with Keller Junas.

1382
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:56,000
Speaker 3: Is it just extended spring training for these guys? Like

1383
00:57:56,040 --> 00:57:58,640
Speaker 3: are they working on stuff like in real games because

1384
00:57:58,640 --> 00:58:00,920
Speaker 3: they know that they suck? I don't know, it's possible, right,

1385
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:02,680
Speaker 3: Like do guys on bad teams do that? Do they

1386
00:58:02,680 --> 00:58:04,320
Speaker 3: just like I'm gonna work on this pitch today because

1387
00:58:04,320 --> 00:58:06,560
Speaker 3: we're not going anywhere. It's totally possible.

1388
00:58:07,000 --> 00:58:09,880
Speaker 1: Is it is? Totally possible that spring training has extended

1389
00:58:09,920 --> 00:58:13,000
Speaker 1: itself into Kansas City. And frankly, I make jokes all

1390
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 1: the time that you know, some of these players can't

1391
00:58:15,520 --> 00:58:17,840
Speaker 1: tell if they're in Omaha or Kansas City because there's

1392
00:58:17,840 --> 00:58:20,680
Speaker 1: so much mixing between the Triple A roster and Omaha

1393
00:58:20,760 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 1: and the Royals. But you know, one new player that

1394
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:26,000
Speaker 1: they have offensively is Michael Franco. And I think the

1395
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 1: funny thing is about pitchers and catchers reporting. Well, I'm

1396
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:30,800
Speaker 1: waiting to see how Franco shows up. I'm waiting to

1397
00:58:30,800 --> 00:58:33,040
Speaker 1: see how much he's eaten in the offseason. He could

1398
00:58:33,080 --> 00:58:35,520
Speaker 1: be a big reason why they go over this win total,

1399
00:58:35,520 --> 00:58:37,120
Speaker 1: but he can also be a big reason why they don't.

1400
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's you know, he could be the best shape

1401
00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:44,000
Speaker 3: your life guy. He's always in Philadelphia. Seemed like he

1402
00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:46,360
Speaker 3: was when he first came up. He was the first

1403
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:49,640
Speaker 3: wave of the Phillies rebuilt, the first guy amongst that

1404
00:58:49,680 --> 00:58:51,760
Speaker 3: group of prospects to come up, and always seemed like

1405
00:58:51,800 --> 00:58:53,680
Speaker 3: people at high hopes for him, and I never really

1406
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:56,440
Speaker 3: saw it. He's certainly a giant guy, has the body

1407
00:58:56,480 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 3: type to, you know.

1408
00:58:57,560 --> 00:58:58,560
Speaker 4: Generate a lot of power.

1409
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:01,000
Speaker 3: But I wouldn't hold their breath waiting for Michael Franco

1410
00:59:01,080 --> 00:59:02,840
Speaker 3: to turn the twenty twenty Royals around.

1411
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:05,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, not holding my breath on that. There's a lot

1412
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:08,040
Speaker 1: of guys in the in the in the pipe that

1413
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:10,400
Speaker 1: I get to watch come through Double A, Arkansas, and

1414
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:12,400
Speaker 1: some guys that I know that are at Wilmington at

1415
00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:14,600
Speaker 1: high a ball that I keep my eyes on. And

1416
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:17,240
Speaker 1: you know, Brady Singer pitched at Florida cohar is one

1417
00:59:17,280 --> 00:59:18,960
Speaker 1: of those pictures we look at. Khalil Lee is going

1418
00:59:19,040 --> 00:59:21,400
Speaker 1: to be their leadoff guy for the future. Those guys

1419
00:59:21,400 --> 00:59:23,000
Speaker 1: are all in the pipe, and that's the reason why

1420
00:59:23,080 --> 00:59:25,479
Speaker 1: I might not want to touch a Royals number until

1421
00:59:25,520 --> 00:59:27,160
Speaker 1: the next year. I really think that they're more of

1422
00:59:27,200 --> 00:59:29,560
Speaker 1: a twenty twenty one team before they start seeing an

1423
00:59:29,600 --> 00:59:33,040
Speaker 1: uptick in their wins. But from a betting perspective for

1424
00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:36,080
Speaker 1: this podcast, what number would you need to bet on

1425
00:59:36,160 --> 00:59:38,160
Speaker 1: Hunter Dozer to win the home run prop? Because I

1426
00:59:38,200 --> 00:59:40,480
Speaker 1: know that he was out there around two hundred one,

1427
00:59:40,480 --> 00:59:42,080
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty to one out there, and I

1428
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:44,200
Speaker 1: know that I went and threw some lunch money on it,

1429
00:59:44,240 --> 00:59:46,880
Speaker 1: because you know, Doser was just creaming the ball every

1430
00:59:46,880 --> 00:59:48,919
Speaker 1: time he got ahold of it. There's a slump, there's

1431
00:59:48,920 --> 00:59:51,360
Speaker 1: a little bit of an injury, there's some streakiness involved,

1432
00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:54,160
Speaker 1: but the swing is there if we have full health

1433
00:59:54,200 --> 00:59:56,560
Speaker 1: and enough plate appearances. You know, I thought it was

1434
00:59:56,600 --> 00:59:58,560
Speaker 1: worth at least some money. What number would you need

1435
00:59:58,560 --> 00:59:59,840
Speaker 1: for a hunter Dozer and what do you think about

1436
00:59:59,880 --> 01:00:00,720
Speaker 1: him a home run hitter.

1437
01:00:00,920 --> 01:00:02,760
Speaker 3: I think two hundred one's fair. I believe he had

1438
01:00:02,760 --> 01:00:06,280
Speaker 3: ten triples last year. Anytime I see a batting line

1439
01:00:06,280 --> 01:00:08,840
Speaker 3: for a season on a guy who's got thirty doubles,

1440
01:00:08,920 --> 01:00:11,680
Speaker 3: ten triples and twenty five homers, there's going to be

1441
01:00:11,800 --> 01:00:13,760
Speaker 3: potential power development there in the future.

1442
01:00:13,840 --> 01:00:16,080
Speaker 4: You look at Curtis Granderson in his career trajectory.

1443
01:00:16,320 --> 01:00:18,720
Speaker 3: Those guys later in their careers, they continue to develop,

1444
01:00:18,920 --> 01:00:21,160
Speaker 3: add a little bit of loft to their swing. They

1445
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:23,720
Speaker 3: can pop thirty five forty homers in the season, no doubt,

1446
01:00:23,840 --> 01:00:26,280
Speaker 3: just because you're you're turning that extra little bit of

1447
01:00:26,760 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 3: triple luck into home run block. You know, you get

1448
01:00:29,120 --> 01:00:31,160
Speaker 3: those just enough hummers and you could really have a

1449
01:00:31,680 --> 01:00:34,560
Speaker 3: huge season. So I don't know if Dojer has the

1450
01:00:35,160 --> 01:00:37,760
Speaker 3: full ceiling to get to like that fifty five home

1451
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 3: run range where you need to lead the league. It's

1452
01:00:40,200 --> 01:00:42,360
Speaker 3: interesting that you bring this up because I'm thinking about

1453
01:00:42,440 --> 01:00:46,360
Speaker 3: Nick Castleanos and he was his expected home runs last year.

1454
01:00:46,400 --> 01:00:47,560
Speaker 4: We're about forty and.

1455
01:00:47,600 --> 01:00:49,360
Speaker 3: When He's always been a guy who hits a ton

1456
01:00:49,360 --> 01:00:51,840
Speaker 3: of extra base hits, and Dojer kind of reminds me

1457
01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:53,880
Speaker 3: of him, you know, third baseman, not the best defender,

1458
01:00:53,960 --> 01:00:56,800
Speaker 3: maybe getting moved to a corner roudfield spot. So these

1459
01:00:56,800 --> 01:00:59,240
Speaker 3: guys seem like professional hitters, and they hit a ton

1460
01:00:59,240 --> 01:01:00,960
Speaker 3: of extra base hits, and they're going to have a

1461
01:01:01,000 --> 01:01:03,480
Speaker 3: year where they pop forty. Just I don't know if

1462
01:01:03,520 --> 01:01:05,840
Speaker 3: Dojer has quite enough juice to get all the way

1463
01:01:05,880 --> 01:01:06,400
Speaker 3: up to fifty.

1464
01:01:06,680 --> 01:01:08,400
Speaker 1: You know, Dojer is going to get moved the outfield.

1465
01:01:08,440 --> 01:01:10,680
Speaker 1: I think that we need to mention from a fantasy perspective,

1466
01:01:10,720 --> 01:01:13,680
Speaker 1: he's gonna have eligibility probably a first base, third base outfield.

1467
01:01:13,960 --> 01:01:17,040
Speaker 1: He's being picked around the one, nineties, two hundreds and fantasy.

1468
01:01:17,800 --> 01:01:19,960
Speaker 1: It's ridiculous. I mean, the source of power you're going

1469
01:01:20,000 --> 01:01:22,880
Speaker 1: to get in the multi eligibility in the positions. Look

1470
01:01:22,920 --> 01:01:24,320
Speaker 1: for a hunterd Dozer in your drafts.

1471
01:01:24,520 --> 01:01:25,960
Speaker 3: I was going to keep him in a league, but

1472
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:28,160
Speaker 3: he's so cheap in a draft there's no point. I

1473
01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:29,840
Speaker 3: think he's a stud and he's going to be on

1474
01:01:29,880 --> 01:01:30,960
Speaker 3: every one of my teams if I can.

1475
01:01:31,480 --> 01:01:33,800
Speaker 1: The last thing I'll say about the Royals, whether or

1476
01:01:33,840 --> 01:01:35,520
Speaker 1: not I take a total I'm not sure. I'm sure

1477
01:01:35,520 --> 01:01:37,520
Speaker 1: I'll tweet it out, but look for leagues that offer

1478
01:01:37,560 --> 01:01:39,840
Speaker 1: Ian Kennedy as a starting pitcher because you can slot

1479
01:01:39,880 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 1: him in a starting pitcher spot and you can earn

1480
01:01:41,600 --> 01:01:44,520
Speaker 1: saves off him. So he may blow up pre era

1481
01:01:44,760 --> 01:01:46,560
Speaker 1: and your whip, but you're going to get that needed

1482
01:01:46,640 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 1: save for that category.

1483
01:01:48,160 --> 01:01:49,880
Speaker 3: And I don't mind Kennedy compared to some of these

1484
01:01:49,920 --> 01:01:51,400
Speaker 3: other closers, even on a bad team.

1485
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:53,560
Speaker 1: He's a burn me on a couple bets though, a

1486
01:01:53,560 --> 01:01:55,480
Speaker 1: couple bit. When you lose money on, you know, like

1487
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:57,400
Speaker 1: a ninth inning blow up, it sticks with you. You seem

1488
01:01:57,400 --> 01:01:59,080
Speaker 1: to remember those more than you do the times that

1489
01:01:59,120 --> 01:01:59,400
Speaker 1: you win.

1490
01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:02,040
Speaker 4: Or maybe that's just betting on the Royals in general, that.

1491
01:02:02,040 --> 01:02:04,320
Speaker 1: Is betting on the oh man, It's it's rough. I

1492
01:02:04,320 --> 01:02:06,120
Speaker 1: got to stick to the first fives with these guys

1493
01:02:10,560 --> 01:02:15,680
Speaker 1: two years back. So let's go ahead and move on.

1494
01:02:16,120 --> 01:02:19,320
Speaker 1: We're going to go to the bottom of the al

1495
01:02:19,440 --> 01:02:22,680
Speaker 1: central the floor, and that is the Detroit Tigers. Their

1496
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:25,520
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen win total projected at sixty eight and a half.

1497
01:02:25,720 --> 01:02:28,400
Speaker 1: They finished with forty seven wins and pathag said that

1498
01:02:28,440 --> 01:02:31,440
Speaker 1: they should have had forty nine wins. Westgate has them

1499
01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:34,000
Speaker 1: at fifty seven. Sean, you've got him projected at fifty eight.

1500
01:02:34,440 --> 01:02:36,960
Speaker 1: Tell me why they finished with forty seven wins and

1501
01:02:37,040 --> 01:02:38,760
Speaker 1: a PATHAG of forty nine and they're going to win

1502
01:02:38,800 --> 01:02:39,520
Speaker 1: ten more games this.

1503
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:43,560
Speaker 3: Year, So unlike last year, they're actually putting veterans on

1504
01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:45,920
Speaker 3: this team, even if it's temporary, even if they're just

1505
01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:47,840
Speaker 3: one year deals, to get them in and out before

1506
01:02:47,880 --> 01:02:48,760
Speaker 3: the trade deadline.

1507
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:49,160
Speaker 4: CJ.

1508
01:02:49,320 --> 01:02:53,640
Speaker 3: Cron, Jonathan Scote, Austin Romin Ivanova, Like they actually added

1509
01:02:53,680 --> 01:02:55,480
Speaker 3: some dudes on this team. I mean they had Josh Harrison,

1510
01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 3: I'm went Jackson last year. I guess they had some

1511
01:02:57,360 --> 01:03:00,000
Speaker 3: dudes last year as well, But purely just a regression.

1512
01:03:00,040 --> 01:03:03,480
Speaker 3: And there's no way that a major league team could

1513
01:03:03,520 --> 01:03:06,320
Speaker 3: be this bad two years in a row. You have

1514
01:03:06,360 --> 01:03:08,840
Speaker 3: to be historically bad to win fewer than fifty games

1515
01:03:08,880 --> 01:03:12,400
Speaker 3: in Major League Baseball. Any projection system, generally you're going

1516
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:16,120
Speaker 3: to see them range between fifty five to like one

1517
01:03:16,200 --> 01:03:18,080
Speaker 3: hundred wins usually if they don't even go over one

1518
01:03:18,120 --> 01:03:21,760
Speaker 3: hundred wins. So to see projection for myself come in,

1519
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:24,640
Speaker 3: as you know, at fifty eight, I mean the lowest

1520
01:03:24,680 --> 01:03:26,360
Speaker 3: I've generally seen is like sixty.

1521
01:03:26,720 --> 01:03:28,360
Speaker 4: I think last year with the Orioles, I might have

1522
01:03:28,360 --> 01:03:29,400
Speaker 4: got down to fifty five.

1523
01:03:29,520 --> 01:03:31,920
Speaker 3: But fifty eight to me is like as low as

1524
01:03:31,960 --> 01:03:33,760
Speaker 3: I can go in a projection and still feel like

1525
01:03:33,840 --> 01:03:37,520
Speaker 3: I'm within range of something that's reasonable. So that's really

1526
01:03:37,560 --> 01:03:40,080
Speaker 3: just where the number comes from. You know, there's nothing

1527
01:03:40,080 --> 01:03:41,960
Speaker 3: that indicates that this team is going to do anything

1528
01:03:42,000 --> 01:03:44,640
Speaker 3: to get better this year. Casey mis Matt Manning or

1529
01:03:44,920 --> 01:03:46,880
Speaker 3: the future of their rotation. They're not going to come

1530
01:03:46,920 --> 01:03:50,600
Speaker 3: up until September at best, if not twenty twenty one.

1531
01:03:51,240 --> 01:03:54,080
Speaker 3: In terms of like talent on this roster that I

1532
01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:56,760
Speaker 3: think is part of their next competitive team, it's Matt

1533
01:03:56,760 --> 01:03:59,600
Speaker 3: Boyd and that's it's it's literally Matt Boyd and twenty

1534
01:03:59,640 --> 01:04:01,800
Speaker 3: five as who I want nothing to do with, probably

1535
01:04:01,800 --> 01:04:04,160
Speaker 3: gonna get traded in season, but you know, it's it's

1536
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:06,200
Speaker 3: really the only guy in this team that I see

1537
01:04:06,200 --> 01:04:08,120
Speaker 3: as a viable major league player.

1538
01:04:08,520 --> 01:04:11,080
Speaker 1: And that's sad because Matt Boyd reminds me a lot

1539
01:04:11,120 --> 01:04:13,120
Speaker 1: of Mitch Haniger out with the Seattle Mariners, Like, can

1540
01:04:13,120 --> 01:04:15,440
Speaker 1: they keep these guys from aging so that the rest

1541
01:04:15,520 --> 01:04:16,960
Speaker 1: of the kids on the farm can get up to

1542
01:04:16,960 --> 01:04:18,880
Speaker 1: the big leagues and they can actually make some noise.

1543
01:04:18,960 --> 01:04:20,920
Speaker 1: But you know, that's the reason. I know there's three

1544
01:04:21,000 --> 01:04:23,760
Speaker 1: years of control left. But you know, we'll see, you know,

1545
01:04:23,760 --> 01:04:25,800
Speaker 1: if he's still around, because I know the number is

1546
01:04:25,840 --> 01:04:28,720
Speaker 1: extremely low, but we're expecting it. And they've added veterans

1547
01:04:28,720 --> 01:04:30,840
Speaker 1: and I get it, and CJ. Cron and you know,

1548
01:04:30,920 --> 01:04:32,960
Speaker 1: he's been in a platoon out with the Angels and

1549
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:35,280
Speaker 1: you know, only getting a hit against certain pitching. But

1550
01:04:35,600 --> 01:04:37,040
Speaker 1: I mean, I just don't think this team is added

1551
01:04:37,120 --> 01:04:39,160
Speaker 1: enough to get to the to get this many wins.

1552
01:04:39,240 --> 01:04:42,760
Speaker 1: And their defense is pretty atrocious. We've mentioned some pretty

1553
01:04:42,760 --> 01:04:45,560
Speaker 1: bad defenses on this AO pod, but Detroit's really bad.

1554
01:04:45,560 --> 01:04:48,040
Speaker 1: I mean, Christian Stewart had twenty three home runs across

1555
01:04:48,080 --> 01:04:50,360
Speaker 1: all levels last year, but you know his defense is

1556
01:04:50,600 --> 01:04:53,440
Speaker 1: essentially a lawn chair, right. I mean, Candelaro showed some

1557
01:04:53,440 --> 01:04:55,960
Speaker 1: power and maybe Mickey will be healthy for a while,

1558
01:04:56,000 --> 01:04:57,960
Speaker 1: but I mean, this is a team I just I

1559
01:04:58,000 --> 01:04:59,880
Speaker 1: want to take an under on because I just cannot

1560
01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:02,760
Speaker 1: see them improving and I don't see them doing anything

1561
01:05:02,800 --> 01:05:06,800
Speaker 1: to improve themselves. And they've admitted openly that we are

1562
01:05:06,800 --> 01:05:08,400
Speaker 1: on a four year plan. This is year two of

1563
01:05:08,440 --> 01:05:09,800
Speaker 1: a year four of a four year plan.

1564
01:05:10,200 --> 01:05:12,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're also not the most analytically in client team.

1565
01:05:13,000 --> 01:05:15,360
Speaker 3: They've admitted to that. Alb those admitted to that at

1566
01:05:15,400 --> 01:05:17,560
Speaker 3: the GM. So you know, they have an old school

1567
01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:20,080
Speaker 3: manager and run garden Higher who seems like most days

1568
01:05:20,120 --> 01:05:21,400
Speaker 3: he's just trying to get kicked out of the game

1569
01:05:21,400 --> 01:05:23,280
Speaker 3: as quickly as possible so he can go home.

1570
01:05:23,280 --> 01:05:24,440
Speaker 1: So we can watch the Twins game.

1571
01:05:24,520 --> 01:05:26,920
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, of course he's got to, you know, get

1572
01:05:26,920 --> 01:05:29,320
Speaker 3: back together with that ex girlfriend for a second, right

1573
01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:31,000
Speaker 3: and check her out, see what she's doing.

1574
01:05:31,360 --> 01:05:32,880
Speaker 4: So you mentioned Maggie.

1575
01:05:33,000 --> 01:05:35,800
Speaker 3: Miggy was four percent below average last year, eight percent

1576
01:05:36,000 --> 01:05:38,520
Speaker 3: of average two years ago, and they owe him thirty

1577
01:05:38,520 --> 01:05:40,760
Speaker 3: one million dollars a year through twenty twenty five on

1578
01:05:40,920 --> 01:05:43,120
Speaker 3: a team that doesn't like to spend on anything. So

1579
01:05:43,200 --> 01:05:44,760
Speaker 3: I don't know what you do with that, but that's

1580
01:05:44,760 --> 01:05:47,240
Speaker 3: like pretty much the Marlins payroll. So that in and

1581
01:05:47,280 --> 01:05:48,880
Speaker 3: of itself is going.

1582
01:05:48,720 --> 01:05:51,720
Speaker 4: To not only limit their contention window, and they're spending.

1583
01:05:51,800 --> 01:05:53,240
Speaker 4: But I mean that extends it.

1584
01:05:53,680 --> 01:05:55,720
Speaker 3: You said a five year plan that brings us to

1585
01:05:55,760 --> 01:05:57,760
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, that's extended all the way to twenty

1586
01:05:57,800 --> 01:05:59,800
Speaker 3: twenty five. So they really think that Meggi's going to

1587
01:05:59,840 --> 01:06:03,040
Speaker 3: be like able to walk by then that seems improbable.

1588
01:06:03,080 --> 01:06:06,200
Speaker 3: They're bringing up two potential aces next year. Maybe Boyd's

1589
01:06:06,240 --> 01:06:08,919
Speaker 3: around for that, maybe not. I think their best path

1590
01:06:09,040 --> 01:06:11,520
Speaker 3: is trading him and just flipping this thing completely. But

1591
01:06:12,040 --> 01:06:14,240
Speaker 3: I can't stop you from taking it under. Even though

1592
01:06:14,240 --> 01:06:15,960
Speaker 3: my prorection says it's it's about right.

1593
01:06:16,480 --> 01:06:18,480
Speaker 1: It's just amazing to think that there was a time

1594
01:06:18,520 --> 01:06:20,840
Speaker 1: in this world where Mickey Cabrera played third base for

1595
01:06:20,880 --> 01:06:23,600
Speaker 1: the Marlins and Michael Fulmer was on the trading block

1596
01:06:23,800 --> 01:06:27,880
Speaker 1: for Alex Bregman. I mean, the Tigers are sunk with

1597
01:06:27,960 --> 01:06:30,840
Speaker 1: a capital S, so we're gonna move on. I'm I'm

1598
01:06:30,840 --> 01:06:32,720
Speaker 1: gonna probably get an underplay on these guys, not a

1599
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:35,760
Speaker 1: huge investment. I do like Cron from a fantasy perspective,

1600
01:06:35,880 --> 01:06:38,240
Speaker 1: just you know, getting as much playing time as possible

1601
01:06:38,280 --> 01:06:40,280
Speaker 1: for his stick. It reminds me of a Lucas Dudis

1602
01:06:40,360 --> 01:06:42,800
Speaker 1: situation with the Royals, where he's going to play full

1603
01:06:42,840 --> 01:06:44,560
Speaker 1: time and that equals thirty home runs for a guy

1604
01:06:44,560 --> 01:06:45,480
Speaker 1: that's got to swing like that.

1605
01:06:45,680 --> 01:06:47,360
Speaker 3: You have the guy found her fifty of bats, don't

1606
01:06:47,360 --> 01:06:49,320
Speaker 3: trade him and you'll probably get thirty five hour runs

1607
01:06:49,320 --> 01:06:49,640
Speaker 3: out of it.

1608
01:06:49,760 --> 01:06:51,560
Speaker 1: Well, pitch on the way he swung on and a

1609
01:06:51,640 --> 01:06:53,680
Speaker 1: high fly ball hits a deep right field again at

1610
01:06:53,720 --> 01:06:57,240
Speaker 1: eight zero, goes back to the track to the wall

1611
01:06:57,880 --> 01:07:01,240
Speaker 1: and makes like, let's get to the meat of this podcast,

1612
01:07:01,240 --> 01:07:03,240
Speaker 1: which is the Al East. I mean, there's so much topic.

1613
01:07:03,280 --> 01:07:05,560
Speaker 1: There's so much to talk about with ALA, especially with

1614
01:07:05,600 --> 01:07:08,440
Speaker 1: the top two teams. We'll get to the Red Sox

1615
01:07:08,440 --> 01:07:10,000
Speaker 1: in a minute and what the hell's going on there,

1616
01:07:10,040 --> 01:07:13,200
Speaker 1: but first we got to talk about how everybody loves them.

1617
01:07:13,240 --> 01:07:16,280
Speaker 1: Some New York Yankees. Let's review what they did last year.

1618
01:07:16,360 --> 01:07:18,880
Speaker 1: They had a Vegas projected win total ninety six and

1619
01:07:18,920 --> 01:07:20,880
Speaker 1: a half. They finished with one hundred and three wins.

1620
01:07:21,240 --> 01:07:23,280
Speaker 1: Going over their total PATHAG says that they should have

1621
01:07:23,320 --> 01:07:26,080
Speaker 1: won ninety nine, and now they are set at one

1622
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:29,640
Speaker 1: hundred and one point five. Sean, you have these guys

1623
01:07:29,680 --> 01:07:32,680
Speaker 1: projected at one hundred, so there's no value here in

1624
01:07:32,680 --> 01:07:36,160
Speaker 1: the one to one point five. But I think everybody

1625
01:07:36,240 --> 01:07:39,240
Speaker 1: in the world probably has some sort of futures on

1626
01:07:39,280 --> 01:07:40,960
Speaker 1: the New York Yankees right now, right.

1627
01:07:41,040 --> 01:07:41,960
Speaker 4: Of course, not couldn't you.

1628
01:07:42,000 --> 01:07:44,240
Speaker 3: There's the best team in the history of Major League Baseball.

1629
01:07:44,240 --> 01:07:46,400
Speaker 3: They're gonna win one hundred and thirty games, and they're gonna,

1630
01:07:46,520 --> 01:07:49,760
Speaker 3: you know, win all twelve playoff games and win running away. No,

1631
01:07:49,920 --> 01:07:53,800
Speaker 3: I mean, it's a historical thing. John Ewing, one of

1632
01:07:53,880 --> 01:07:57,360
Speaker 3: our Action Network colleagues, hold this. Since nineteen ninety there's

1633
01:07:57,400 --> 01:07:59,240
Speaker 3: been five teams that have a win total one hundred

1634
01:07:59,280 --> 01:08:01,280
Speaker 3: plus their zero to five against the number.

1635
01:08:01,640 --> 01:08:03,280
Speaker 4: This is the first.

1636
01:08:02,960 --> 01:08:06,480
Speaker 3: Team since the twenty sixteen Cubs to have a win

1637
01:08:06,560 --> 01:08:08,280
Speaker 3: projection on Davenport over one hundred.

1638
01:08:08,520 --> 01:08:10,960
Speaker 4: Only other is the twenty twelve Texas Raiders. So it

1639
01:08:11,000 --> 01:08:11,480
Speaker 4: shows you.

1640
01:08:11,480 --> 01:08:13,800
Speaker 3: You know, we're just talking about projections and the ranges

1641
01:08:13,840 --> 01:08:16,439
Speaker 3: of projections and how difficult it is to get a

1642
01:08:16,439 --> 01:08:18,400
Speaker 3: team that's so good that they push your projection number

1643
01:08:18,400 --> 01:08:20,479
Speaker 3: over one hundred. This Yankees team is that good. The

1644
01:08:20,560 --> 01:08:23,920
Speaker 3: Dodters team is that good. I have them within zero

1645
01:08:24,000 --> 01:08:24,919
Speaker 3: point one wins.

1646
01:08:24,680 --> 01:08:26,479
Speaker 4: Of each other. I think one's one hundred point four,

1647
01:08:26,520 --> 01:08:27,719
Speaker 4: one's one hundred point three.

1648
01:08:28,080 --> 01:08:32,040
Speaker 3: So this Yankees team sustainably thirty more than thirty injuries.

1649
01:08:32,120 --> 01:08:34,360
Speaker 3: Last year, they broke a record by putting over thirty

1650
01:08:34,400 --> 01:08:36,200
Speaker 3: guys in the INDERD list and they still won one

1651
01:08:36,280 --> 01:08:39,439
Speaker 3: hundred and three games. You know, their PITHAG was ninety nine.

1652
01:08:39,840 --> 01:08:42,320
Speaker 3: My projection this year is one hundred. Davenport's one oh one,

1653
01:08:42,680 --> 01:08:45,560
Speaker 3: So everything is pretty much right around one another.

1654
01:08:45,320 --> 01:08:48,439
Speaker 4: If you equate to last year. And why is that.

1655
01:08:48,560 --> 01:08:51,800
Speaker 3: It's because Mike Taukman had two point six wins, Abrough replacement,

1656
01:08:52,000 --> 01:08:54,280
Speaker 3: cho Ershall had three point one riins of uber replacement,

1657
01:08:54,360 --> 01:08:56,040
Speaker 3: Breck Gardner had a three and a half one season.

1658
01:08:56,080 --> 01:08:58,599
Speaker 4: Luke Voyd had two wins. These are Le May who

1659
01:08:58,600 --> 01:08:59,879
Speaker 4: had a five win MVPC.

1660
01:09:00,520 --> 01:09:03,400
Speaker 3: There's baked in regression for these guys to all come

1661
01:09:03,439 --> 01:09:05,679
Speaker 3: back down to their level. They added Garrett Cole. They're

1662
01:09:05,680 --> 01:09:07,800
Speaker 3: going to get other guys back from injury, but at

1663
01:09:07,840 --> 01:09:10,680
Speaker 3: the same time you have to factor in the regression

1664
01:09:10,680 --> 01:09:12,920
Speaker 3: that these other guys had in their career years, all

1665
01:09:12,920 --> 01:09:15,040
Speaker 3: having their career years at the same time that they're

1666
01:09:15,080 --> 01:09:16,960
Speaker 3: all going to come back down to a normal level.

1667
01:09:17,080 --> 01:09:19,160
Speaker 3: So you might be getting standing back for a full year.

1668
01:09:19,560 --> 01:09:21,519
Speaker 3: You might be getting full year Garrett Cale, you might

1669
01:09:21,560 --> 01:09:23,040
Speaker 3: win the exact same number of games.

1670
01:09:23,400 --> 01:09:25,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I just cannot believe how many injuries these

1671
01:09:25,640 --> 01:09:27,880
Speaker 1: guys had last year. So I mean, there is you know,

1672
01:09:28,200 --> 01:09:31,000
Speaker 1: that going for them. But at the same time, if

1673
01:09:31,040 --> 01:09:32,960
Speaker 1: there's a weakness that I want to point out with

1674
01:09:33,000 --> 01:09:35,439
Speaker 1: these guys, it's their brand new pitching coach. They had

1675
01:09:35,520 --> 01:09:38,719
Speaker 1: Larry Rothschild after nine years, big part of their pitching staff,

1676
01:09:39,040 --> 01:09:42,120
Speaker 1: a big part of their success from the pitching standpoint.

1677
01:09:42,360 --> 01:09:45,360
Speaker 1: Now they have thirty four year old Matt Blake, who

1678
01:09:45,400 --> 01:09:48,360
Speaker 1: was the Indian's pitching coordinator. Matt Blake has not been

1679
01:09:48,400 --> 01:09:50,599
Speaker 1: in a dugout. Matt Blake has not made a walk

1680
01:09:50,600 --> 01:09:54,920
Speaker 1: out to a mound. Matt Blake not a hands on coach,

1681
01:09:55,720 --> 01:09:57,880
Speaker 1: I believe. I read a story where some of the

1682
01:09:57,960 --> 01:10:01,160
Speaker 1: Yankees pitchers are already chirp about how the fact that

1683
01:10:01,200 --> 01:10:04,360
Speaker 1: they're they're working on their mechanics and talking about their mechanics,

1684
01:10:04,400 --> 01:10:06,400
Speaker 1: and Matt Blake had like a skype session with them,

1685
01:10:06,439 --> 01:10:08,479
Speaker 1: Like he's not hands on, like at all. He's one

1686
01:10:08,520 --> 01:10:11,440
Speaker 1: of the analytics guys. He's a he's considered an analytics

1687
01:10:11,479 --> 01:10:14,920
Speaker 1: guru and you know, smart, And it just reminds me

1688
01:10:14,960 --> 01:10:16,840
Speaker 1: in college football so much of Joe Brady at LSU,

1689
01:10:16,880 --> 01:10:18,400
Speaker 1: Like he doesn't actually coach the players, but he could

1690
01:10:18,439 --> 01:10:20,240
Speaker 1: draw something on a market board that's absolutely going to

1691
01:10:20,280 --> 01:10:22,320
Speaker 1: get you to win. He's never made a mound visit,

1692
01:10:22,360 --> 01:10:25,200
Speaker 1: and I think that really plays heavily into this team.

1693
01:10:25,320 --> 01:10:27,080
Speaker 1: Like if the pitching mechanics get out of whack, and

1694
01:10:27,080 --> 01:10:29,000
Speaker 1: at some point this season they will, they'll go into

1695
01:10:29,040 --> 01:10:31,519
Speaker 1: a funk every team does, you know, I'm not sure

1696
01:10:31,560 --> 01:10:34,479
Speaker 1: that's something that he can fix. So, you know, Packson's

1697
01:10:34,479 --> 01:10:36,519
Speaker 1: already on the d L. So if there's one area

1698
01:10:36,560 --> 01:10:38,559
Speaker 1: of weakness here, it's the fact that the you know,

1699
01:10:38,560 --> 01:10:40,320
Speaker 1: they have a different pitching coach and they're going full

1700
01:10:40,320 --> 01:10:41,720
Speaker 1: analytics from that standpoint.

1701
01:10:42,040 --> 01:10:44,400
Speaker 3: You know, baseball, it feels like the coaching in baseball

1702
01:10:44,479 --> 01:10:46,080
Speaker 3: is so much more of a personal touch than it

1703
01:10:46,120 --> 01:10:48,920
Speaker 3: is with other sports. They're in so much closer proximity

1704
01:10:48,920 --> 01:10:51,040
Speaker 3: and it's so much more of like a relationship than

1705
01:10:51,080 --> 01:10:53,840
Speaker 3: it is, where other sports seem like it's more of

1706
01:10:53,840 --> 01:10:56,360
Speaker 3: a dictatorship. This seems like it's more of a family,

1707
01:10:56,560 --> 01:10:59,240
Speaker 3: you know, baseball team, So that, you know, that's certainly

1708
01:10:59,280 --> 01:11:01,920
Speaker 3: something to be said. That past and being injured immediately,

1709
01:11:02,439 --> 01:11:04,120
Speaker 3: you know, that that takes a big hit out. But

1710
01:11:04,320 --> 01:11:06,360
Speaker 3: when you add in the fact that you know their

1711
01:11:06,439 --> 01:11:09,880
Speaker 3: their rotation, potential playoff rotation is going to be Cole Severino,

1712
01:11:10,200 --> 01:11:12,760
Speaker 3: maybe Paxton, and then you have to choose between Ja

1713
01:11:12,920 --> 01:11:16,280
Speaker 3: Happ and maut Zero Tanaka, that's pretty nasty. It's a

1714
01:11:16,280 --> 01:11:18,160
Speaker 3: lot better than what they were trolling out last year,

1715
01:11:18,240 --> 01:11:21,559
Speaker 3: especially because yeah, we're leaving out Damango Arman as well,

1716
01:11:21,600 --> 01:11:24,479
Speaker 3: I believe, right, So the fact that her mom was suspended,

1717
01:11:24,520 --> 01:11:28,479
Speaker 3: you know, you have a full rotation of number two

1718
01:11:28,560 --> 01:11:30,720
Speaker 3: number three starters at worst. You know, at the at

1719
01:11:30,760 --> 01:11:33,639
Speaker 3: the bottom of that rotation where we're talking about other teams, they.

1720
01:11:33,520 --> 01:11:35,759
Speaker 4: Can barely fill out their five rotation.

1721
01:11:35,960 --> 01:11:39,160
Speaker 3: So Yankee starting pitching depth compared to last year so

1722
01:11:39,280 --> 01:11:42,559
Speaker 3: much better. Their bullpen probably just as good. It's just

1723
01:11:42,600 --> 01:11:44,759
Speaker 3: a matter of, you know, to stand and stay healthy.

1724
01:11:45,160 --> 01:11:48,280
Speaker 3: How much do you guys like Talkman and Ershalla regress.

1725
01:11:48,560 --> 01:11:50,519
Speaker 3: Otherwise they're they're going to win one hundred games and

1726
01:11:50,720 --> 01:11:52,760
Speaker 3: they should be the World Series favorite. I just think they're,

1727
01:11:53,520 --> 01:11:55,719
Speaker 3: you know, ever so slightly overvalued at this point.

1728
01:11:56,160 --> 01:11:57,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I absolutely agree. But when you have a win

1729
01:11:57,880 --> 01:11:59,800
Speaker 1: total of one hundred and one point five, you need

1730
01:11:59,840 --> 01:12:02,200
Speaker 1: a thing to be perfect, and that pitching aspect with

1731
01:12:02,240 --> 01:12:04,040
Speaker 1: the pitching coach kind of bothers me because I'm a

1732
01:12:04,040 --> 01:12:07,240
Speaker 1: guy that coaches my thirteen year old's team and I've

1733
01:12:07,240 --> 01:12:09,439
Speaker 1: got five thirteen year olds on a mound and it's

1734
01:12:09,479 --> 01:12:12,599
Speaker 1: not even so much I'm teaching you how to set

1735
01:12:12,600 --> 01:12:14,639
Speaker 1: your feet and handle the rubber and check a runner

1736
01:12:14,640 --> 01:12:16,400
Speaker 1: at first, and how you have to tuck your glove

1737
01:12:16,439 --> 01:12:18,479
Speaker 1: into your armpit, and your mechanic. It's in between the

1738
01:12:18,520 --> 01:12:21,040
Speaker 1: ears too. Pitching is in between the ears, especially with

1739
01:12:21,040 --> 01:12:22,360
Speaker 1: a lot of these guys. I should know as a

1740
01:12:22,360 --> 01:12:24,760
Speaker 1: guy that follows Royals baseball and Greenky just decided to

1741
01:12:24,800 --> 01:12:26,880
Speaker 1: take a year off, right. I mean, pitching is just

1742
01:12:26,880 --> 01:12:28,639
Speaker 1: as much between the ears as it is your mechanics.

1743
01:12:28,680 --> 01:12:30,280
Speaker 1: So that's something that kind of stuck out to me.

1744
01:12:30,600 --> 01:12:31,960
Speaker 1: I want everything to be perfect if I'm going to

1745
01:12:32,000 --> 01:12:33,240
Speaker 1: take an over one hundred and one and a half.

1746
01:12:33,280 --> 01:12:34,719
Speaker 1: So that's why I'm going to lay off here.

1747
01:12:36,280 --> 01:12:39,479
Speaker 5: I lie in the left field down into the cutter again,

1748
01:12:39,800 --> 01:12:44,040
Speaker 5: been attending near the wall leaks, He's didn't catch.

1749
01:12:43,760 --> 01:12:45,559
Speaker 1: It, and it's hard for me to take it under.

1750
01:12:45,800 --> 01:12:49,080
Speaker 1: When a team like Boston and Baltimore in the division,

1751
01:12:49,160 --> 01:12:52,960
Speaker 1: and I'm not sure if Boston's trying to tank here, like,

1752
01:12:53,160 --> 01:12:55,080
Speaker 1: are we just getting rid of bets because weren't going

1753
01:12:55,160 --> 01:12:56,680
Speaker 1: to get anything in the first place. I mean the

1754
01:12:56,680 --> 01:12:58,840
Speaker 1: player that they got in return for do Goo. There

1755
01:12:58,920 --> 01:13:01,559
Speaker 1: was some mention of how he's probably not a clubhouse

1756
01:13:01,560 --> 01:13:04,000
Speaker 1: guy and not the friendliest guy in the world to

1757
01:13:04,040 --> 01:13:06,360
Speaker 1: have on your team. But I'm going to highlight them.

1758
01:13:06,520 --> 01:13:09,080
Speaker 1: Last year, Vegas had them projected win total at ninety

1759
01:13:09,080 --> 01:13:12,320
Speaker 1: four and a half. They won eighty four games. Pethag

1760
01:13:12,400 --> 01:13:14,200
Speaker 1: says that they should have won eighty seven. This still

1761
01:13:14,200 --> 01:13:15,760
Speaker 1: comes up short of what the Vegas number was at

1762
01:13:15,800 --> 01:13:17,759
Speaker 1: ninety four and a half. Here we are this season,

1763
01:13:17,920 --> 01:13:20,519
Speaker 1: Boston Red Sox Westgate eighty six and a half. That

1764
01:13:20,640 --> 01:13:22,760
Speaker 1: is current up to date as we record this podcast,

1765
01:13:22,960 --> 01:13:25,000
Speaker 1: no matter what trades are happening or going down there

1766
01:13:25,000 --> 01:13:27,280
Speaker 1: at eighty six and a half, Sean, you've got them

1767
01:13:27,360 --> 01:13:29,519
Speaker 1: under eighty six and a half by a heck of

1768
01:13:29,600 --> 01:13:30,720
Speaker 1: a margin. At eighty one.

1769
01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:33,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, so they opened it ninety three and a half.

1770
01:13:33,400 --> 01:13:35,360
Speaker 3: I bet under ninety three and a half pretty much

1771
01:13:35,400 --> 01:13:37,599
Speaker 3: to the limit. I bet under ninety two my points

1772
01:13:37,600 --> 01:13:40,040
Speaker 3: bet that so We'll see how that goes. You know,

1773
01:13:40,360 --> 01:13:42,960
Speaker 3: I was at eighty five wins when they opened, so

1774
01:13:43,000 --> 01:13:44,719
Speaker 3: I was way under the market.

1775
01:13:44,800 --> 01:13:45,320
Speaker 4: Initially.

1776
01:13:45,520 --> 01:13:47,720
Speaker 3: After the Bets trade, I bumped them down to eighty one.

1777
01:13:48,120 --> 01:13:51,680
Speaker 3: Davenport pretty much made the same move. They bumped them

1778
01:13:51,680 --> 01:13:54,560
Speaker 3: down from ninety one to eighty five, so about a

1779
01:13:54,600 --> 01:13:57,000
Speaker 3: six winter adjustment. Mine was about a four winter adjustment.

1780
01:13:57,160 --> 01:13:59,839
Speaker 3: You know, they're right in line with the market. I'm lower,

1781
01:14:00,080 --> 01:14:02,840
Speaker 3: of course, I don't think they're done making moves. I

1782
01:14:02,840 --> 01:14:05,160
Speaker 3: think Jackie Bradley Junior is still yet to be traded.

1783
01:14:05,720 --> 01:14:08,880
Speaker 3: Never minding that my biggest concern with this team since

1784
01:14:08,920 --> 01:14:12,080
Speaker 3: the beginning. Chris Sale avoided elbows surgery. They want the

1785
01:14:12,080 --> 01:14:14,680
Speaker 3: rest in rehab route. As velocity was down early in

1786
01:14:14,720 --> 01:14:18,200
Speaker 3: the year, didn't look great. Came back, you know, to

1787
01:14:18,280 --> 01:14:20,200
Speaker 3: a decent level and was throwing harder. Got out his

1788
01:14:20,320 --> 01:14:22,320
Speaker 3: velocity bet so he was at like ninety seven and

1789
01:14:22,400 --> 01:14:25,439
Speaker 3: ninety nine two seasons ago. Last year, he started out

1790
01:14:25,439 --> 01:14:27,599
Speaker 3: around eighty nine to ninety one, got it back up

1791
01:14:27,600 --> 01:14:30,680
Speaker 3: to around ninety three to ninety five, and then ended

1792
01:14:30,760 --> 01:14:32,840
Speaker 3: up getting shut down with an elbow injury. Eighty of

1793
01:14:32,880 --> 01:14:36,280
Speaker 3: all the had loose bodies, removed in Zelbow tossed sixty

1794
01:14:36,280 --> 01:14:39,200
Speaker 3: five innings sixty seven innings, walked a guy every other inning.

1795
01:14:39,520 --> 01:14:41,320
Speaker 3: So now you're giving me a team that has two

1796
01:14:41,360 --> 01:14:43,720
Speaker 3: of its top three starters coming off of injury. Your

1797
01:14:43,800 --> 01:14:46,840
Speaker 3: number four and five starters are Martin Presdent, Hactor Velasquez,

1798
01:14:47,280 --> 01:14:49,719
Speaker 3: and you have no farm system. Where is the depth.

1799
01:14:50,080 --> 01:14:52,920
Speaker 3: On top of that, you're probably trading your centerfielder, your

1800
01:14:52,920 --> 01:14:56,840
Speaker 3: goal glove centerfielder. You just traded the twenty eighteen al

1801
01:14:56,920 --> 01:14:59,760
Speaker 3: MVP from right field. You're replacing him with a guy

1802
01:15:00,080 --> 01:15:02,800
Speaker 3: like Ridugo, who's like a three hundred hitter. He's a

1803
01:15:02,800 --> 01:15:05,800
Speaker 3: good player, he's a three win player. But you're Chris

1804
01:15:05,800 --> 01:15:10,520
Speaker 3: Sale injury away from having ir rotation with Eduardo Rodriguez

1805
01:15:10,600 --> 01:15:13,840
Speaker 3: and a bunch of number four number five starters, if

1806
01:15:13,880 --> 01:15:16,560
Speaker 3: not number six, number seven guys that's not going to

1807
01:15:16,560 --> 01:15:18,479
Speaker 3: play in the ale least. Not only do I think

1808
01:15:18,520 --> 01:15:22,200
Speaker 3: there's a risk of Boston finishing five hundred, I think

1809
01:15:22,200 --> 01:15:25,479
Speaker 3: there's a strong chance that Toronto passes them, and that

1810
01:15:25,560 --> 01:15:28,160
Speaker 3: this is one of the most miserable seasons in recent

1811
01:15:28,200 --> 01:15:30,759
Speaker 3: Red Sox memory. They have a new GM cutting ties

1812
01:15:30,800 --> 01:15:34,559
Speaker 3: with everything they're still under investigation by the league. So

1813
01:15:34,800 --> 01:15:36,320
Speaker 3: you mean to tell me that this team was a

1814
01:15:36,320 --> 01:15:38,120
Speaker 3: new GM who came from the RAIS and is looking

1815
01:15:38,160 --> 01:15:39,479
Speaker 3: to cut costs so that they can get on the

1816
01:15:39,600 --> 01:15:42,120
Speaker 3: luxury tax. What are they going to add in season

1817
01:15:42,200 --> 01:15:44,720
Speaker 3: to make themselves better. They're already an eighty five win

1818
01:15:44,760 --> 01:15:46,799
Speaker 3: team by true talent. They're only going to get worse

1819
01:15:47,200 --> 01:15:49,759
Speaker 3: that true talent is provided that Chris Sale is healthy.

1820
01:15:50,400 --> 01:15:52,400
Speaker 3: So I don't know what the upside for this team is.

1821
01:15:52,840 --> 01:15:55,000
Speaker 3: That's why I felt so safe points betting it and

1822
01:15:55,040 --> 01:15:57,800
Speaker 3: betting the unders. Initially, I didn't see any upside with

1823
01:15:57,840 --> 01:16:02,400
Speaker 3: this team. I thought their floor was, you know, uncalculable,

1824
01:16:02,479 --> 01:16:04,439
Speaker 3: and I thought their ceiling was around where I had

1825
01:16:04,479 --> 01:16:07,080
Speaker 3: projected it. I think it fast third eighty six one team.

1826
01:16:07,280 --> 01:16:09,000
Speaker 1: I agree with everything you had to say there, as

1827
01:16:09,040 --> 01:16:11,439
Speaker 1: far as the jury concerns with both of their pitchers,

1828
01:16:11,439 --> 01:16:13,040
Speaker 1: and if they get anything out of some of the

1829
01:16:13,080 --> 01:16:15,080
Speaker 1: lineup the players that they can flip. I think for

1830
01:16:15,200 --> 01:16:17,200
Speaker 1: other players, I think they're going to do it. Like Benettendi,

1831
01:16:17,280 --> 01:16:19,680
Speaker 1: I think is plateaued. I think he's completely plateaued. I

1832
01:16:19,680 --> 01:16:21,920
Speaker 1: think they've figured out what his ceiling is and if

1833
01:16:21,960 --> 01:16:23,600
Speaker 1: they can get you know, someone to buy him. I

1834
01:16:23,600 --> 01:16:25,600
Speaker 1: think he'd be out the door too. And and you know,

1835
01:16:25,680 --> 01:16:29,639
Speaker 1: like I said, Verdugo was, at least from what I read,

1836
01:16:30,040 --> 01:16:32,240
Speaker 1: not the friendliest guy to have in your dugout. So

1837
01:16:33,000 --> 01:16:35,439
Speaker 1: you know, we know how Chris Sale is once he's

1838
01:16:35,439 --> 01:16:37,479
Speaker 1: not happy with the situation. Also, he'll cut up his

1839
01:16:37,560 --> 01:16:40,120
Speaker 1: jersey and do whatever the hell he feels. So you know,

1840
01:16:40,160 --> 01:16:41,559
Speaker 1: you want to be on the under with this team.

1841
01:16:41,600 --> 01:16:43,240
Speaker 1: I don't think it's moved enough for eighty six and

1842
01:16:43,280 --> 01:16:45,200
Speaker 1: a half. I definitely like the under on this team,

1843
01:16:45,280 --> 01:16:46,960
Speaker 1: and it makes it really hard to take an under

1844
01:16:46,960 --> 01:16:49,519
Speaker 1: on the Yankees on such an inflated number when you

1845
01:16:49,520 --> 01:16:51,639
Speaker 1: know teams like Boston could be this bad.

1846
01:16:51,800 --> 01:16:55,160
Speaker 5: There's a pitch swinging along on the center field. Hunter

1847
01:16:55,240 --> 01:16:58,960
Speaker 5: to the track, he's to the wall, he lips, he

1848
01:16:59,160 --> 01:16:59,559
Speaker 5: caught it.

1849
01:16:59,640 --> 01:17:02,920
Speaker 1: Hen you know, let's go ahead and talk about the Rays.

1850
01:17:02,960 --> 01:17:05,120
Speaker 1: Let's get because we did mention the Blue Jays there,

1851
01:17:05,160 --> 01:17:06,400
Speaker 1: and I do have a lot to say about the

1852
01:17:06,400 --> 01:17:08,920
Speaker 1: Blue Jays, but let's go ahead and talk about the Rays.

1853
01:17:08,960 --> 01:17:11,400
Speaker 1: Who have you know, a legitimate team as much as

1854
01:17:11,439 --> 01:17:13,519
Speaker 1: had last year. Last year they were projected at eighty

1855
01:17:13,520 --> 01:17:15,360
Speaker 1: four and a half. Wins. They finished with ninety six.

1856
01:17:15,800 --> 01:17:18,080
Speaker 1: The FAG says they should have won ninety three. They

1857
01:17:18,080 --> 01:17:20,360
Speaker 1: are projected at Vegas at eighty nine and a half.

1858
01:17:20,360 --> 01:17:22,200
Speaker 1: Sewan you have them at eighty nine. So they're going

1859
01:17:22,280 --> 01:17:24,479
Speaker 1: to contender here more than likely going to end up

1860
01:17:24,479 --> 01:17:26,439
Speaker 1: in the wild card if they can get a secure

1861
01:17:26,479 --> 01:17:29,280
Speaker 1: spot there. Probably not catch the Yankees. But this is

1862
01:17:29,320 --> 01:17:31,640
Speaker 1: a team that we like to contend and make it

1863
01:17:31,680 --> 01:17:32,680
Speaker 1: to the playoffs.

1864
01:17:32,320 --> 01:17:34,320
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, this is the team I have the fewest

1865
01:17:34,400 --> 01:17:37,320
Speaker 3: questions or concerns about, honestly, you know, even even less

1866
01:17:37,320 --> 01:17:39,400
Speaker 3: so than the Yankees, because I feel like a few

1867
01:17:39,400 --> 01:17:41,559
Speaker 3: injuries on the Yankees and you could really knock them

1868
01:17:41,600 --> 01:17:44,040
Speaker 3: down a peg. But the Rays have so much depth,

1869
01:17:44,120 --> 01:17:47,000
Speaker 3: so much forty man roster depth. They can sustain virtually

1870
01:17:47,080 --> 01:17:49,920
Speaker 3: entery injury. You know, even if Seller allows now they

1871
01:17:49,960 --> 01:17:51,960
Speaker 3: have plenty of starters who can come in and fill out.

1872
01:17:52,240 --> 01:17:54,920
Speaker 3: This is the most rock solid year to year defensive

1873
01:17:54,920 --> 01:17:57,360
Speaker 3: team to baseball. They were plus fifty two last year,

1874
01:17:57,439 --> 01:17:59,320
Speaker 3: third in the AL. They were plus fifty seven to

1875
01:17:59,360 --> 01:18:02,040
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen, first in the AL. They're plus eighty eight

1876
01:18:02,080 --> 01:18:05,400
Speaker 3: and twenty seventeen. It was first in baseball. Their third

1877
01:18:05,400 --> 01:18:09,840
Speaker 3: in bullpen war. They deploy their bullpen probably as well

1878
01:18:09,880 --> 01:18:13,040
Speaker 3: or better strategically than any other team. You know, look

1879
01:18:13,040 --> 01:18:15,200
Speaker 3: at their triple A roster and tell me that that

1880
01:18:15,240 --> 01:18:17,720
Speaker 3: team wouldn't play better than the Orioles over the course

1881
01:18:17,720 --> 01:18:20,439
Speaker 3: of a full season. Their their triple A roster is

1882
01:18:20,560 --> 01:18:23,080
Speaker 3: absolutely loaded. And then on top of that, they have

1883
01:18:23,160 --> 01:18:24,880
Speaker 3: one of the top farm systems in baseball. They have

1884
01:18:25,040 --> 01:18:27,920
Speaker 3: They have seven top one hundred prospects. Wander Franco, who

1885
01:18:27,960 --> 01:18:30,600
Speaker 3: is their top prospect, is probably already better at shortstop,

1886
01:18:30,600 --> 01:18:33,160
Speaker 3: and Millie Damas. You know, you're unlikely to see many

1887
01:18:33,200 --> 01:18:35,840
Speaker 3: of those guys, maybe maybe McKay and Brett Honeywall this year.

1888
01:18:36,240 --> 01:18:38,519
Speaker 3: But again that's two more starters that you can figure

1889
01:18:38,520 --> 01:18:40,880
Speaker 3: into their starter depth. They have like nine or ten

1890
01:18:41,000 --> 01:18:43,799
Speaker 3: viable starters. It's kind of crazy. So there their outfield.

1891
01:18:43,800 --> 01:18:45,400
Speaker 3: They shuffled it up a little bit from last year.

1892
01:18:45,439 --> 01:18:48,160
Speaker 3: They got rid of Tommy fam They brought in Manny

1893
01:18:48,200 --> 01:18:51,480
Speaker 3: Margo and Hunter Renfro and separate trades from the Padres

1894
01:18:51,600 --> 01:18:53,400
Speaker 3: and the signing that I really they got rid of

1895
01:18:53,439 --> 01:18:55,920
Speaker 3: their closer, Milliple gone. But they have again plenty of

1896
01:18:56,000 --> 01:18:59,320
Speaker 3: relievers to fill in that depth. My favorite signing and

1897
01:18:59,680 --> 01:19:01,640
Speaker 3: the that I think could be humongous for them is

1898
01:19:01,720 --> 01:19:02,799
Speaker 3: Yoshi Tamlas and Sugo.

1899
01:19:03,120 --> 01:19:04,720
Speaker 4: He was Japan's cleanup hitter.

1900
01:19:05,320 --> 01:19:08,679
Speaker 3: He was the best power threat in MPB walks a ton,

1901
01:19:08,800 --> 01:19:10,640
Speaker 3: you know, over one hundred walks a year, great on

1902
01:19:10,680 --> 01:19:14,320
Speaker 3: base ability, all fields, power. There's no way to quantify

1903
01:19:14,880 --> 01:19:16,640
Speaker 3: how a guy is going to perform coming over from

1904
01:19:16,640 --> 01:19:20,080
Speaker 3: the Japanese league, especially hitter. But we've seen what Otani's done,

1905
01:19:20,320 --> 01:19:22,880
Speaker 3: and Sugo was on his level in terms of hitting,

1906
01:19:22,920 --> 01:19:25,719
Speaker 3: not in terms of contact ability, but certainly in terms

1907
01:19:25,760 --> 01:19:29,840
Speaker 3: of power. You know, far surpasses Otani. And his eye

1908
01:19:29,920 --> 01:19:32,559
Speaker 3: is rock solid and maybe his best tool.

1909
01:19:32,800 --> 01:19:34,360
Speaker 1: So you have a.

1910
01:19:34,360 --> 01:19:37,640
Speaker 3: Potential star that you signed for cheap who wants to

1911
01:19:37,640 --> 01:19:40,479
Speaker 3: play for you in Yoshi Thomas at Sugo, and he

1912
01:19:40,520 --> 01:19:42,960
Speaker 3: could be a difference maker in helping close the gap

1913
01:19:42,960 --> 01:19:43,759
Speaker 3: against the Yankees.

1914
01:19:44,320 --> 01:19:46,720
Speaker 1: I agree. And then there's you know, the Ras are

1915
01:19:46,720 --> 01:19:48,960
Speaker 1: so well managed, they have their own system, and Kevin

1916
01:19:49,000 --> 01:19:50,840
Speaker 1: Cash likes to move his lineup around. They do have

1917
01:19:50,840 --> 01:19:53,280
Speaker 1: a glut of outfielders. With the Marco signing and Margo,

1918
01:19:53,800 --> 01:19:56,240
Speaker 1: it seems like in last the last couple of years,

1919
01:19:56,280 --> 01:19:58,320
Speaker 1: I always pick him up in fantasy around July. It

1920
01:19:58,320 --> 01:20:00,679
Speaker 1: seems like he starts hitting and five starts dealing bases

1921
01:20:00,760 --> 01:20:03,040
Speaker 1: in the second half of the season. But they can

1922
01:20:03,160 --> 01:20:05,479
Speaker 1: take a loss a pitcher, you know, a Tyler Glass

1923
01:20:05,479 --> 01:20:07,799
Speaker 1: now or you know, Charlie Morton or Blake Snell injury,

1924
01:20:07,840 --> 01:20:10,000
Speaker 1: and they could just keep on going. And you can

1925
01:20:10,080 --> 01:20:12,160
Speaker 1: make fun of them for having the ugliest turf and

1926
01:20:12,160 --> 01:20:14,600
Speaker 1: the ugliest roof and only having thirteen dollars tickets and

1927
01:20:14,680 --> 01:20:17,320
Speaker 1: a stingray in the tank in the outfield, But I mean,

1928
01:20:17,360 --> 01:20:19,680
Speaker 1: they're a fantastic team and an organization to watch, and

1929
01:20:20,200 --> 01:20:21,840
Speaker 1: if everything goes down for the Yankees, and this is

1930
01:20:21,840 --> 01:20:23,439
Speaker 1: definitely the team that you want to watch. But yeah,

1931
01:20:23,439 --> 01:20:25,720
Speaker 1: I completely agree with you here. So do we have

1932
01:20:25,800 --> 01:20:26,960
Speaker 1: are we going to make a bet on these guys?

1933
01:20:27,000 --> 01:20:28,400
Speaker 1: I mean, our projection is pretty close to what their

1934
01:20:28,400 --> 01:20:30,400
Speaker 1: wind total is, but is there something that may be

1935
01:20:30,439 --> 01:20:31,360
Speaker 1: a little bit inflated?

1936
01:20:31,680 --> 01:20:33,760
Speaker 3: So I had the raise futures last year. I have

1937
01:20:33,840 --> 01:20:35,679
Speaker 3: them a little bit divisional. I think ten to one,

1938
01:20:36,160 --> 01:20:38,720
Speaker 3: a little bit World Series. I think there's value in

1939
01:20:38,760 --> 01:20:41,479
Speaker 3: betting them to win a least. I have them I

1940
01:20:41,560 --> 01:20:44,439
Speaker 3: believe around plus four hundred which is applied twenty percent.

1941
01:20:44,800 --> 01:20:47,000
Speaker 3: You can get them as high as plus seven hundred

1942
01:20:47,000 --> 01:20:49,120
Speaker 3: in the market, which is implied twelve and a half percent.

1943
01:20:49,160 --> 01:20:51,519
Speaker 3: So that's about a seven and a half percent gap

1944
01:20:52,040 --> 01:20:54,839
Speaker 3: in terms of an edge. In reality, though, I'm hesitant

1945
01:20:54,840 --> 01:20:57,439
Speaker 3: because this Yankees team is so good. I just happen

1946
01:20:57,439 --> 01:20:59,840
Speaker 3: to see value and I love this race team. It's

1947
01:20:59,840 --> 01:21:02,280
Speaker 3: just I'm wondering if I'm going to be ripping up

1948
01:21:02,280 --> 01:21:03,680
Speaker 3: that ticket at the end of the year, you know,

1949
01:21:03,760 --> 01:21:05,320
Speaker 3: wondering why I ever bet it, because the Yankees one

1950
01:21:05,439 --> 01:21:08,000
Speaker 3: hundred and eighteen games. So that's the only place that

1951
01:21:08,360 --> 01:21:10,639
Speaker 3: hesitancy stems from, is just the Yankees being so good.

1952
01:21:10,920 --> 01:21:13,479
Speaker 1: Absolutely, But you know there's always that team, you know,

1953
01:21:13,520 --> 01:21:15,960
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Twins of the world, and there's always teams

1954
01:21:16,120 --> 01:21:18,799
Speaker 1: to completely overperform, and there's some teams that have injuries

1955
01:21:18,840 --> 01:21:20,599
Speaker 1: that you didn't see coming from a mile away. So

1956
01:21:21,080 --> 01:21:24,439
Speaker 1: certainly with an inflated number and the Rays to win

1957
01:21:24,479 --> 01:21:26,599
Speaker 1: the division, I mean, at some point you've got to say, well,

1958
01:21:26,680 --> 01:21:28,880
Speaker 1: that's just you know, that's just too much. And I've

1959
01:21:28,880 --> 01:21:30,400
Speaker 1: got to take a piece here because you never know

1960
01:21:30,439 --> 01:21:31,120
Speaker 1: what's going to happen.

1961
01:21:31,720 --> 01:21:38,400
Speaker 5: Almost three favorite pick is going up.

1962
01:21:38,479 --> 01:21:40,320
Speaker 2: He got it.

1963
01:21:40,439 --> 01:21:42,640
Speaker 1: He got it. If we want to look at our

1964
01:21:42,680 --> 01:21:45,240
Speaker 1: next team that's in the AL East, a team that

1965
01:21:45,439 --> 01:21:48,839
Speaker 1: I was on the under with last year with total

1966
01:21:48,880 --> 01:21:51,320
Speaker 1: motivation to turn around and hit their over this year,

1967
01:21:51,360 --> 01:21:54,160
Speaker 1: and that was the Toronto Blue Jays. The kids on

1968
01:21:54,240 --> 01:21:58,160
Speaker 1: the farm are getting older. Last season, Vegas projected them

1969
01:21:58,160 --> 01:22:00,880
Speaker 1: at seventy four and a half. They're nineteen win total

1970
01:22:00,920 --> 01:22:03,240
Speaker 1: came to sixty seven. Pathak says they should have won

1971
01:22:03,280 --> 01:22:04,800
Speaker 1: four more games than that. They should have finished at

1972
01:22:04,800 --> 01:22:07,719
Speaker 1: seventy one. Vegas Westgate has him right now at seventy

1973
01:22:07,760 --> 01:22:10,280
Speaker 1: six wins. Sean, you got him at seventy six wins.

1974
01:22:11,080 --> 01:22:13,240
Speaker 1: I know that the projection is right spot on with

1975
01:22:13,280 --> 01:22:16,360
Speaker 1: what Westgate has on right now. But this is a

1976
01:22:16,400 --> 01:22:19,080
Speaker 1: team that I faded last year because I felt like,

1977
01:22:19,160 --> 01:22:21,120
Speaker 1: no matter what, they were going to be sellers at

1978
01:22:21,120 --> 01:22:23,680
Speaker 1: the deadline and they were going to work on building themselves.

1979
01:22:24,280 --> 01:22:26,120
Speaker 1: This year, I think things have changed a little bit.

1980
01:22:26,160 --> 01:22:27,880
Speaker 1: I think if there's a pitcher out there that they

1981
01:22:27,880 --> 01:22:29,680
Speaker 1: can go out and get, I think they might go

1982
01:22:29,680 --> 01:22:31,639
Speaker 1: out and get them. I mean it could be huge

1983
01:22:31,680 --> 01:22:35,200
Speaker 1: for the organization to make a wildcard or maybe to

1984
01:22:35,200 --> 01:22:37,519
Speaker 1: finish over five hundred or maybe he'd actually do something

1985
01:22:37,560 --> 01:22:41,640
Speaker 1: special here. But the hitting on this team is tremendous

1986
01:22:41,680 --> 01:22:44,000
Speaker 1: and they are a lot of fun to watch. And Guerrero,

1987
01:22:44,439 --> 01:22:46,640
Speaker 1: I mean, haven't seen him live a couple times. Just

1988
01:22:46,680 --> 01:22:49,519
Speaker 1: to hear the ball come off his bat is one

1989
01:22:49,560 --> 01:22:51,680
Speaker 1: of the more amazing things I've heard in years at

1990
01:22:51,680 --> 01:22:54,120
Speaker 1: a baseball game. But how do we feel about, you know,

1991
01:22:54,160 --> 01:22:57,080
Speaker 1: this team as far as their chances to actually go

1992
01:22:57,160 --> 01:22:59,719
Speaker 1: over their win total maybe do something a little bit more.

1993
01:23:00,120 --> 01:23:03,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think I had a similar momentum as

1994
01:23:03,240 --> 01:23:05,160
Speaker 3: you in terms of fading them last year and then

1995
01:23:05,280 --> 01:23:08,479
Speaker 3: trying to go over this year. Vlad is concerning me

1996
01:23:09,040 --> 01:23:12,679
Speaker 3: based on where I was, you know, evaluating his talent

1997
01:23:12,920 --> 01:23:14,799
Speaker 3: compared to last year he was. He was a minus

1998
01:23:14,880 --> 01:23:17,200
Speaker 3: nine at third base in ninety six games, which is

1999
01:23:17,280 --> 01:23:19,639
Speaker 3: pretty much the worst third basement defensive league baseball.

2000
01:23:19,680 --> 01:23:20,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I.

2001
01:23:20,640 --> 01:23:22,600
Speaker 3: Don't know if he's going to get any better or

2002
01:23:22,680 --> 01:23:24,960
Speaker 3: much better at all. There's a chance he might need

2003
01:23:25,000 --> 01:23:27,880
Speaker 3: to move to first base sooner than the Jays that anticipated.

2004
01:23:27,920 --> 01:23:29,280
Speaker 3: He always seems like he had a body type that

2005
01:23:29,280 --> 01:23:31,360
Speaker 3: would need to move to first eventually, but it might

2006
01:23:31,400 --> 01:23:34,400
Speaker 3: be more immediate if you're looking at who's the better

2007
01:23:34,439 --> 01:23:37,639
Speaker 3: prospect between him and Bashett, I would probably take Baschette.

2008
01:23:37,840 --> 01:23:40,160
Speaker 3: Hitting last year, Rochette was a one forty two WRC

2009
01:23:40,280 --> 01:23:43,200
Speaker 3: plus career was a one oh five, Vigo one fourteen,

2010
01:23:43,280 --> 01:23:45,679
Speaker 3: Guriel one twenty four. And I think amongst the four,

2011
01:23:46,240 --> 01:23:49,120
Speaker 3: Guriel has probably the most immediate upside for this season.

2012
01:23:49,320 --> 01:23:52,280
Speaker 3: Always considered to have the most raw power in that organization.

2013
01:23:52,479 --> 01:23:54,240
Speaker 3: It's direct from the mouth of a scout from the

2014
01:23:54,280 --> 01:23:57,559
Speaker 3: Rely Jays. The season that he had last year with

2015
01:23:57,600 --> 01:24:00,320
Speaker 3: the speed, hitting twenty home runs and you know, a

2016
01:24:00,320 --> 01:24:02,559
Speaker 3: limited number of contests. I mean he's he was on

2017
01:24:02,600 --> 01:24:05,120
Speaker 3: a forty home run pace over eighty four games last

2018
01:24:05,200 --> 01:24:08,439
Speaker 3: year with steals amongst that eighty second percentile and hard

2019
01:24:08,520 --> 01:24:12,400
Speaker 3: hit rate. So Guriel fantasy guy for this year seems

2020
01:24:12,439 --> 01:24:15,840
Speaker 3: like a true breakout guy. They added Travis Shaw, who

2021
01:24:15,840 --> 01:24:18,120
Speaker 3: I think is interesting because he hit what like thirty

2022
01:24:18,160 --> 01:24:20,200
Speaker 3: five or runs two years ago for the Brewers and

2023
01:24:20,240 --> 01:24:22,240
Speaker 3: just kind of got hurt last year. And I think

2024
01:24:22,280 --> 01:24:24,679
Speaker 3: his dad played for the Blue Jays or something as well,

2025
01:24:24,760 --> 01:24:27,640
Speaker 3: so there's a connection there. But Shaw is interesting to me,

2026
01:24:27,680 --> 01:24:30,639
Speaker 3: and I mean their infield could be phenomenal in terms

2027
01:24:30,680 --> 01:24:32,960
Speaker 3: of offensive output. You know, they added hundred and root

2028
01:24:32,960 --> 01:24:36,280
Speaker 3: of the rotation. They pretty much recycled, are shuffled over

2029
01:24:36,320 --> 01:24:38,320
Speaker 3: their whole rotation. I have a whole bunch of new

2030
01:24:38,320 --> 01:24:41,840
Speaker 3: pitchers in there with with Rue and Tanner, Roark, shun Yamagucci.

2031
01:24:42,240 --> 01:24:44,679
Speaker 3: So it's certainly a much improved team. And I think

2032
01:24:44,680 --> 01:24:47,160
Speaker 3: the fact that, as you mentioned, they might be willing

2033
01:24:47,160 --> 01:24:49,840
Speaker 3: to add more pitching. You know, they didn't sign Rue

2034
01:24:49,840 --> 01:24:51,760
Speaker 3: for year four of his deal. They signed him for

2035
01:24:51,840 --> 01:24:53,880
Speaker 3: years one and two of this deal, right, so they

2036
01:24:53,880 --> 01:24:56,040
Speaker 3: want to get it competitive as quickly as possible. And

2037
01:24:56,400 --> 01:24:59,280
Speaker 3: I don't think they'll they'll miss out on any opportunity

2038
01:24:59,320 --> 01:25:01,120
Speaker 3: to continue to improve the roster. I just think that

2039
01:25:01,200 --> 01:25:04,920
Speaker 3: the bullpen behind Giles is pretty weak and they might

2040
01:25:04,960 --> 01:25:08,160
Speaker 3: struggle defensively, but beyond that, I do like what I'm seeing,

2041
01:25:08,160 --> 01:25:10,000
Speaker 3: and like I said, I think they could surpass the

2042
01:25:10,080 --> 01:25:10,559
Speaker 3: Red Sox.

2043
01:25:10,880 --> 01:25:12,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they've got a plan. I mean that this

2044
01:25:12,960 --> 01:25:15,000
Speaker 1: has been the plan the entire time, was to you know,

2045
01:25:15,080 --> 01:25:17,439
Speaker 1: get some seasoning on the kids on the farm. And

2046
01:25:17,479 --> 01:25:19,840
Speaker 1: you know, ti Oscar Hernandez is something nobody's talking about,

2047
01:25:20,000 --> 01:25:23,000
Speaker 1: especially from a fantasy standpoint, just you know, Hernandez can

2048
01:25:23,000 --> 01:25:24,960
Speaker 1: crush the ball. So you know, now that he's got

2049
01:25:24,960 --> 01:25:27,600
Speaker 1: more lineup protection, he's got you know, other people in

2050
01:25:27,600 --> 01:25:29,519
Speaker 1: the lineup that can hit the ball, maybe he sees

2051
01:25:29,520 --> 01:25:32,120
Speaker 1: better pitches at least where he's you know, currently projected

2052
01:25:32,120 --> 01:25:34,519
Speaker 1: to hit in the lineup, lower on in the bottom third.

2053
01:25:34,640 --> 01:25:36,519
Speaker 1: I mean, that definitely could be an advantage for a

2054
01:25:36,560 --> 01:25:39,479
Speaker 1: guy that actually can really hit. So that's a player

2055
01:25:39,479 --> 01:25:42,920
Speaker 1: that I like from a fantasy standpoint. Matt Shoemaker, I mean,

2056
01:25:42,960 --> 01:25:45,200
Speaker 1: I have lost so many bets on this guy, and

2057
01:25:45,200 --> 01:25:46,880
Speaker 1: I lost so many unders with this guy when he

2058
01:25:46,960 --> 01:25:48,479
Speaker 1: was with the Angels. I don't know what the Blue

2059
01:25:48,520 --> 01:25:49,760
Speaker 1: Jays are going to get out of him from a

2060
01:25:50,280 --> 01:25:52,600
Speaker 1: pitching standpoint, but I mean, it just goes to the

2061
01:25:52,640 --> 01:25:55,040
Speaker 1: point of when they get to the trade deadline, I

2062
01:25:55,040 --> 01:25:56,559
Speaker 1: do feel like the Blue Jays are going to be

2063
01:25:56,560 --> 01:25:59,679
Speaker 1: more buyers or at least stand pat than they would

2064
01:25:59,760 --> 01:26:03,240
Speaker 1: be sellers. And most of it comes to the pitching rotation,

2065
01:26:03,320 --> 01:26:07,680
Speaker 1: and that falls upon Matt Shoemaker, who I've never been

2066
01:26:07,720 --> 01:26:09,479
Speaker 1: able to trust with my own money. I had high

2067
01:26:09,479 --> 01:26:11,760
Speaker 1: expectations for the guy and it just never seems to

2068
01:26:11,760 --> 01:26:12,240
Speaker 1: pan out.

2069
01:26:13,640 --> 01:26:20,680
Speaker 5: That ball was crushed enough Field upped him back.

2070
01:26:21,920 --> 01:26:24,479
Speaker 1: So the Blue Jays, we like the Yankees, we like

2071
01:26:24,600 --> 01:26:27,800
Speaker 1: the Rays, we like the Red Sox. We don't like

2072
01:26:27,960 --> 01:26:30,240
Speaker 1: to close the pod. We're going to talk about another

2073
01:26:31,000 --> 01:26:34,800
Speaker 1: cellar dweller, which is the Baltimore Orioles. Signs of life

2074
01:26:34,800 --> 01:26:37,599
Speaker 1: for this team not there yet, So let's talk about

2075
01:26:37,640 --> 01:26:40,719
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen fifty four wins for the Baltimore Orioles after

2076
01:26:40,760 --> 01:26:43,439
Speaker 1: a Vegas projection of fifty nine and a half. Fifty

2077
01:26:43,520 --> 01:26:45,360
Speaker 1: nine and a half was a real projection by Vegas

2078
01:26:45,360 --> 01:26:47,000
Speaker 1: that was put out there, and they still didn't get

2079
01:26:47,000 --> 01:26:48,920
Speaker 1: to it. The Thag says that they should have got

2080
01:26:48,960 --> 01:26:50,960
Speaker 1: to sixty, that they should have eclipsed that win total,

2081
01:26:50,960 --> 01:26:53,759
Speaker 1: but they didn't. They are set at Westgate at fifty

2082
01:26:53,800 --> 01:26:55,960
Speaker 1: six and a half right now, Sean, you're right on

2083
01:26:55,960 --> 01:26:58,439
Speaker 1: the money with your projection at fifty six wins. Is

2084
01:26:58,479 --> 01:27:01,360
Speaker 1: there anything that we're betting on or against? Is there

2085
01:27:01,360 --> 01:27:03,400
Speaker 1: something we're waiting on? Is there a solo? Is there?

2086
01:27:03,560 --> 01:27:06,320
Speaker 1: What can we say about the Baltimore Orioles. Is there

2087
01:27:06,360 --> 01:27:09,760
Speaker 1: a betting deliverable out of this team anywhere? Now?

2088
01:27:10,600 --> 01:27:13,600
Speaker 3: In short, you know, they're very similar to the Tigers

2089
01:27:13,680 --> 01:27:15,760
Speaker 3: to me, in that they have like one or two

2090
01:27:15,840 --> 01:27:19,040
Speaker 3: guys on their entire roster that I would pick to

2091
01:27:19,040 --> 01:27:20,920
Speaker 3: put on a major league team if you gave me

2092
01:27:21,000 --> 01:27:24,559
Speaker 3: Trey Mancini and Matt Boyd, maybe Michael Gibbons, and maybe

2093
01:27:24,680 --> 01:27:27,400
Speaker 3: Ryan malkaslo is one of their prospects. Like, that's all

2094
01:27:27,439 --> 01:27:29,920
Speaker 3: I want from those two major league rosters. They were

2095
01:27:29,920 --> 01:27:32,839
Speaker 3: the worst defensive team in baseball last year. They're starting

2096
01:27:32,840 --> 01:27:35,800
Speaker 3: pitchers project for five point three wins above replacement. If

2097
01:27:35,840 --> 01:27:38,000
Speaker 3: you just picked free agent pitchers, you could get five

2098
01:27:38,000 --> 01:27:41,040
Speaker 3: wins of ove replacement. Their lineup projects for ten point

2099
01:27:41,080 --> 01:27:43,200
Speaker 3: four wins of bub replacement. If you just took free

2100
01:27:43,240 --> 01:27:45,000
Speaker 3: agent hitters, you could get to ten point three wins

2101
01:27:45,000 --> 01:27:48,120
Speaker 3: above replacement. In other words, the Orioles are just as

2102
01:27:48,120 --> 01:27:49,920
Speaker 3: good as a team of hand picked free agents.

2103
01:27:50,320 --> 01:27:52,559
Speaker 1: Mark Trumbo's gone. The defense has to be better now

2104
01:27:52,600 --> 01:27:54,520
Speaker 1: that Mark Trumbo's gone, right, Former.

2105
01:27:54,280 --> 01:27:57,200
Speaker 3: Major League home run title winner Mark Trumbo, Yeah, that

2106
01:27:57,640 --> 01:27:59,240
Speaker 3: kind of fell off the face of the earth quake

2107
01:28:00,120 --> 01:28:02,439
Speaker 3: of Chris Davis. So you have another major league home

2108
01:28:02,520 --> 01:28:05,719
Speaker 3: run title winner there. I believe, two time winner. They added,

2109
01:28:05,800 --> 01:28:07,960
Speaker 3: you know, Wade LeBlanc, who's always been destined to be

2110
01:28:07,960 --> 01:28:10,400
Speaker 3: an Oriole because he's one of the worst pitchers in

2111
01:28:10,439 --> 01:28:13,880
Speaker 3: baseball Jose Glesias. Other than that, there's there's pretty much

2112
01:28:13,920 --> 01:28:18,760
Speaker 3: nothing redeeming about this team. Fantasy perspective. Anthony Santander, former

2113
01:28:18,840 --> 01:28:20,800
Speaker 3: Rule five guy at twenty home runs and under one

2114
01:28:20,840 --> 01:28:24,639
Speaker 3: hundred games last year, hits in the three hole, asher woes,

2115
01:28:24,920 --> 01:28:27,160
Speaker 3: you know, started throwing a cutter last year. He was

2116
01:28:27,160 --> 01:28:30,639
Speaker 3: an independent ball guy. He had like a couple dominant starts,

2117
01:28:30,640 --> 01:28:32,559
Speaker 3: one against the Red Sox that I was on. That

2118
01:28:32,880 --> 01:28:35,280
Speaker 3: He's really stuck in my mind because he showed like

2119
01:28:35,280 --> 01:28:37,640
Speaker 3: a plus breaking ball in that start, and there's a

2120
01:28:37,760 --> 01:28:40,160
Speaker 3: chance if he finds some consistency, he could get traded

2121
01:28:40,200 --> 01:28:42,680
Speaker 3: to a contender and maybe be, you know, a contributor

2122
01:28:42,720 --> 01:28:45,760
Speaker 3: to a contending team. But other than that, I've I've

2123
01:28:45,800 --> 01:28:49,280
Speaker 3: really gotten nothing on the Orioles. They're just they're being run,

2124
01:28:49,720 --> 01:28:52,280
Speaker 3: you know, in a way that I think is encouraging. Now,

2125
01:28:52,720 --> 01:28:55,840
Speaker 3: Michael Las came from Houston, so they seem to have

2126
01:28:55,920 --> 01:28:57,720
Speaker 3: direction and a plan, and they're going to be more

2127
01:28:57,800 --> 01:29:00,839
Speaker 3: analyttle hitting client that were actually shifting their players defensively

2128
01:29:00,920 --> 01:29:03,200
Speaker 3: last year. So even though they were bad defensively, they

2129
01:29:03,479 --> 01:29:05,120
Speaker 3: had an idea of what they were doing instead of

2130
01:29:05,160 --> 01:29:07,760
Speaker 3: just standing their spots. So trending in the right way,

2131
01:29:07,800 --> 01:29:09,920
Speaker 3: even though it doesn't look like it. But I don't

2132
01:29:09,920 --> 01:29:11,280
Speaker 3: think they're going to be any better than they were

2133
01:29:11,280 --> 01:29:12,040
Speaker 3: in twenty nineteen.

2134
01:29:12,400 --> 01:29:15,759
Speaker 1: From a fantasy perspective. You know, Gibbons has a usually

2135
01:29:15,840 --> 01:29:18,160
Speaker 1: has higher than a one to one, you know, k

2136
01:29:18,360 --> 01:29:22,320
Speaker 1: per inning ratio, blown saves come and go. But you

2137
01:29:22,320 --> 01:29:24,080
Speaker 1: know he's the one that's got the most experience here.

2138
01:29:24,120 --> 01:29:25,880
Speaker 1: But I mean this could be closer by committee on

2139
01:29:25,920 --> 01:29:28,439
Speaker 1: this team. You know, Trey Mancini, if you're in a

2140
01:29:28,439 --> 01:29:31,679
Speaker 1: points league, he strikes out way too much to roster.

2141
01:29:31,800 --> 01:29:34,000
Speaker 1: Other than that he's good in a five by five standard.

2142
01:29:34,320 --> 01:29:37,280
Speaker 1: You know, Austin Hayes never panned out to be in what,

2143
01:29:37,320 --> 01:29:38,519
Speaker 1: you know, what he thought he was going to be

2144
01:29:38,520 --> 01:29:40,519
Speaker 1: from the prospect. You know, maybe there's some sort of

2145
01:29:40,560 --> 01:29:43,080
Speaker 1: fantasy zombie going on. Maybe he can find something, catch

2146
01:29:43,120 --> 01:29:45,599
Speaker 1: lightning in a bottle. But you know, with this team,

2147
01:29:45,640 --> 01:29:48,880
Speaker 1: there's no there's nothing actionable from a win total perspective.

2148
01:29:48,960 --> 01:29:51,080
Speaker 1: I mean, even with a number fifty six and a half,

2149
01:29:51,720 --> 01:29:54,160
Speaker 1: this is a team where there's just not enough talent.

2150
01:29:54,200 --> 01:29:56,280
Speaker 1: As Sean said like you could hand pick a bunch

2151
01:29:56,320 --> 01:29:59,000
Speaker 1: of free agents and still have better talent than what

2152
01:29:59,040 --> 01:30:01,720
Speaker 1: they actually have right now. So there is no you know,

2153
01:30:01,800 --> 01:30:05,720
Speaker 1: betting deliverable on here. But as far as betting deliverables go,

2154
01:30:06,000 --> 01:30:08,720
Speaker 1: this is the end of the podcast, and I think

2155
01:30:08,720 --> 01:30:10,479
Speaker 1: we'll go ahead and put in summary what we like

2156
01:30:10,560 --> 01:30:11,240
Speaker 1: best from here.

2157
01:30:13,600 --> 01:30:16,800
Speaker 5: There's a longside ball, deep center, feel tech.

2158
01:30:16,880 --> 01:30:18,400
Speaker 2: Since Packy leaves.

2159
01:30:19,800 --> 01:30:22,240
Speaker 1: Catch Sean, what do you got first off for best

2160
01:30:22,320 --> 01:30:23,120
Speaker 1: Ale win total?

2161
01:30:23,320 --> 01:30:25,559
Speaker 3: I'd say it's probably a tie for me between Texas

2162
01:30:25,600 --> 01:30:27,720
Speaker 3: at eighty and a half and Boston at eighty six

2163
01:30:27,800 --> 01:30:28,160
Speaker 3: and a half.

2164
01:30:28,200 --> 01:30:30,559
Speaker 4: But you know, if you made me pick one, I'll

2165
01:30:30,600 --> 01:30:31,160
Speaker 4: say Texas.

2166
01:30:31,240 --> 01:30:33,599
Speaker 3: I think there's a little more value there and you

2167
01:30:33,640 --> 01:30:36,240
Speaker 3: can probably play an over seventy six and a half

2168
01:30:36,240 --> 01:30:37,360
Speaker 3: and hit the middle on the nose.

2169
01:30:38,040 --> 01:30:39,640
Speaker 1: I'm going to stay in that same division. I'm going

2170
01:30:39,720 --> 01:30:41,720
Speaker 1: to go with the Seattle Mariners at under sixty seven

2171
01:30:41,760 --> 01:30:44,400
Speaker 1: and a half. I think that they are a shade

2172
01:30:44,400 --> 01:30:47,160
Speaker 1: of what the Toronto Blue Jays were last year, where

2173
01:30:47,439 --> 01:30:49,080
Speaker 1: I don't know if think they have as much talent.

2174
01:30:49,320 --> 01:30:51,160
Speaker 1: I certainly don't think they have as much offensive talent,

2175
01:30:51,200 --> 01:30:52,960
Speaker 1: but they're just in a mode where they know that

2176
01:30:53,000 --> 01:30:55,559
Speaker 1: they're not going to be buying. They know that they

2177
01:30:55,600 --> 01:30:58,000
Speaker 1: are in complete rebuild mode. They're still trying to get

2178
01:30:58,000 --> 01:31:01,120
Speaker 1: the farm worked out. They're pitching situation is a mess,

2179
01:31:01,160 --> 01:31:03,240
Speaker 1: and they've got new coaches everywhere. I like the under

2180
01:31:03,280 --> 01:31:05,439
Speaker 1: sixty seven and a half on the Mariners. All right,

2181
01:31:05,479 --> 01:31:08,160
Speaker 1: So from the best ale future standpoint, do you have

2182
01:31:08,160 --> 01:31:09,479
Speaker 1: one that you like better than any others?

2183
01:31:09,760 --> 01:31:11,479
Speaker 3: So at this point I feel like a lot of

2184
01:31:11,200 --> 01:31:13,000
Speaker 3: the value has kind of been sucked out.

2185
01:31:12,840 --> 01:31:13,280
Speaker 4: Of the market.

2186
01:31:13,320 --> 01:31:17,200
Speaker 3: So the one team that we discussed who lines up

2187
01:31:17,240 --> 01:31:19,120
Speaker 3: with my projection, I see the A's at twenty eight

2188
01:31:19,200 --> 01:31:21,599
Speaker 3: hundred at draft Gangs. To win the World Series. I

2189
01:31:21,600 --> 01:31:23,680
Speaker 3: have them at about twenty six hundred. If they win

2190
01:31:23,720 --> 01:31:26,400
Speaker 3: the AO West, there's certainly value in that. If they

2191
01:31:26,640 --> 01:31:28,800
Speaker 3: get a wildcard, there's not value in that. And that's

2192
01:31:28,840 --> 01:31:30,520
Speaker 3: kind of how you have to look at these futures.

2193
01:31:30,760 --> 01:31:33,280
Speaker 3: You know, with the Rays to win the World Series,

2194
01:31:33,400 --> 01:31:35,920
Speaker 3: or the A's or the White Sox, like, whatever team

2195
01:31:36,000 --> 01:31:37,840
Speaker 3: you think can win their division is going to be

2196
01:31:37,880 --> 01:31:40,720
Speaker 3: more valuable than a team to just potentially make the

2197
01:31:40,720 --> 01:31:42,639
Speaker 3: wildcard and slip through, because you're still going to find

2198
01:31:42,680 --> 01:31:45,840
Speaker 3: pretty actionable value in September on wildcard teams, but not

2199
01:31:45,960 --> 01:31:47,599
Speaker 3: selling the teams about their vision locked up.

2200
01:31:48,040 --> 01:31:51,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree. For me, Oakland A's at you know,

2201
01:31:51,560 --> 01:31:53,840
Speaker 1: plus four hundred odds to win the Division. I love

2202
01:31:53,880 --> 01:31:57,360
Speaker 1: it. It's a fade of the Astros. At the same time,

2203
01:31:57,439 --> 01:31:59,760
Speaker 1: like I said, they're built for the regular season, not

2204
01:31:59,800 --> 01:32:02,080
Speaker 1: for the postseason. And I think it's gonna be a

2205
01:32:02,080 --> 01:32:04,880
Speaker 1: big bounce back for Chris Davis. And they have pitching prospects.

2206
01:32:04,920 --> 01:32:08,280
Speaker 1: We have Johan Santana two point zero AJ Puck who

2207
01:32:08,560 --> 01:32:10,679
Speaker 1: if you've not seen this AJ Puck kid pitch, it's

2208
01:32:11,120 --> 01:32:14,400
Speaker 1: Randy Johnson esque. The other one I'll mention is I

2209
01:32:14,439 --> 01:32:18,160
Speaker 1: love the Tampa Bay Rays. Shawn's projections which are fantastic

2210
01:32:18,200 --> 01:32:19,640
Speaker 1: And you have to get on an action network and

2211
01:32:19,680 --> 01:32:23,080
Speaker 1: see what he's got for MLB, for win totals, for projections,

2212
01:32:23,360 --> 01:32:25,479
Speaker 1: He's got it all listed. He's got the Tampa Bay

2213
01:32:25,560 --> 01:32:28,360
Speaker 1: Rays fair odds value at four to one to win

2214
01:32:28,400 --> 01:32:31,400
Speaker 1: the Al East at seven to one. It's just it's

2215
01:32:31,520 --> 01:32:33,360
Speaker 1: really too good of a number to pass up. But

2216
01:32:33,840 --> 01:32:35,880
Speaker 1: I really think I'm gonna wait until pitchers and catchers

2217
01:32:35,960 --> 01:32:39,000
Speaker 1: report the fever for Baseball is back in. People start

2218
01:32:39,040 --> 01:32:42,280
Speaker 1: hearing the bats clank from spring training from the grapefruit

2219
01:32:42,280 --> 01:32:44,400
Speaker 1: in the Cactus League, and the number on the eighties

2220
01:32:44,439 --> 01:32:46,920
Speaker 1: gets so high that there's finally a Tampa Bay Rays

2221
01:32:47,400 --> 01:32:50,080
Speaker 1: Division number that's worth buying into that's just out of control.

2222
01:32:50,160 --> 01:32:52,519
Speaker 1: So I think that number could come at seven fifty

2223
01:32:52,600 --> 01:32:54,679
Speaker 1: or maybe eight to one. But I think the Raiser

2224
01:32:54,760 --> 01:32:56,439
Speaker 1: is some team that I'm going to be looking to

2225
01:32:56,520 --> 01:32:58,960
Speaker 1: hit probably around the third week of March, all right,

2226
01:32:59,000 --> 01:33:00,120
Speaker 1: And then to wrap it up, we're going to talk

2227
01:33:00,160 --> 01:33:03,120
Speaker 1: about the best fantasy value out of the al. If

2228
01:33:03,120 --> 01:33:04,640
Speaker 1: you're in some drafts and you need a player to

2229
01:33:04,640 --> 01:33:07,320
Speaker 1: target someone that no one else is going to be

2230
01:33:07,320 --> 01:33:09,080
Speaker 1: looking at to draft, I'm going to go with a

2231
01:33:09,120 --> 01:33:11,479
Speaker 1: Hunter Dozer for the Royals. He's going to have multi

2232
01:33:11,560 --> 01:33:15,479
Speaker 1: position eligibility. First third, because Mickel Franco's there, He's going

2233
01:33:15,520 --> 01:33:17,720
Speaker 1: to get pushed out to a corner outfield spot, so

2234
01:33:17,720 --> 01:33:19,400
Speaker 1: he's going to have multiple positions he's going to be

2235
01:33:19,439 --> 01:33:22,080
Speaker 1: eligible for. Whether you play in a league that takes

2236
01:33:22,120 --> 01:33:24,519
Speaker 1: ten games or twenty games to qualify the position, that'll

2237
01:33:24,560 --> 01:33:27,559
Speaker 1: be hundred Dozer. But as we mentioned before, the power

2238
01:33:27,600 --> 01:33:30,679
Speaker 1: is real. The power is legit, he slumped a little

2239
01:33:30,680 --> 01:33:32,759
Speaker 1: bit and streaked a little bit, but he had played

2240
01:33:32,800 --> 01:33:34,639
Speaker 1: more games. I think over one hundred and thirty games.

2241
01:33:34,640 --> 01:33:36,519
Speaker 1: It's more than he had ever played at all the

2242
01:33:36,600 --> 01:33:38,559
Speaker 1: levels he had played at before in his career. So

2243
01:33:38,600 --> 01:33:43,000
Speaker 1: that's expected for somebody that plays that many games. His

2244
01:33:43,000 --> 01:33:45,559
Speaker 1: his contact, his barrel percentage, everything that you need in

2245
01:33:45,600 --> 01:33:48,439
Speaker 1: a home run hitter. I would suggest, like Sean said

2246
01:33:48,479 --> 01:33:50,720
Speaker 1: in the podcast, anything that's over two hundred and one

2247
01:33:50,720 --> 01:33:52,960
Speaker 1: on him to win the home run title I think

2248
01:33:53,080 --> 01:33:55,920
Speaker 1: is a bet. But from an ale fantasy value, his

2249
01:33:56,000 --> 01:33:59,040
Speaker 1: ADP right now is around one ninety five. I wouldn't wait.

2250
01:34:00,120 --> 01:34:01,679
Speaker 1: He's a guy that I would scoop up a hundred

2251
01:34:01,680 --> 01:34:03,160
Speaker 1: dozer for me on my fantasy teams.

2252
01:34:03,560 --> 01:34:06,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mentioned it before, Nick Madrigal. I think he's

2253
01:34:06,560 --> 01:34:08,960
Speaker 3: going to get called up fairly quickly by Chicago. This

2254
01:34:09,000 --> 01:34:11,960
Speaker 3: guy struck out thirty seven times in his entire college career,

2255
01:34:12,040 --> 01:34:15,400
Speaker 3: all right, forty four sixteen walk to strikeout ratio in

2256
01:34:15,439 --> 01:34:20,439
Speaker 3: the minors Pacoda ninety percent projection three fifteen three eighty

2257
01:34:20,520 --> 01:34:23,240
Speaker 3: four sixty three nine home runs, four and a half

2258
01:34:23,240 --> 01:34:24,240
Speaker 3: percent strikeout rate.

2259
01:34:24,439 --> 01:34:26,559
Speaker 4: You're talking about a lead offitter. Plus feed.

2260
01:34:27,040 --> 01:34:30,639
Speaker 3: Maybe twenty five steals, maybe nine homers, three hundred average.

2261
01:34:30,920 --> 01:34:32,360
Speaker 4: Come on, when are you going to get that late

2262
01:34:32,360 --> 01:34:32,880
Speaker 4: in a draft?

2263
01:34:33,280 --> 01:34:33,479
Speaker 3: Yeah?

2264
01:34:34,000 --> 01:34:35,840
Speaker 1: I have going to draft him on all my teams too.

2265
01:34:35,880 --> 01:34:38,640
Speaker 1: It just still bugs me that he had to, you know,

2266
01:34:38,680 --> 01:34:41,479
Speaker 1: win the college World Series and leave one team back

2267
01:34:41,560 --> 01:34:44,160
Speaker 1: behind without a without a World Series title. But I

2268
01:34:44,320 --> 01:34:44,639
Speaker 1: was done.

2269
01:34:45,000 --> 01:34:48,000
Speaker 4: Your razorbacks with you so we can have lament it together.

2270
01:34:48,680 --> 01:34:51,520
Speaker 1: Good for the Beaves, good for us and our AL podcast.

2271
01:34:51,840 --> 01:34:54,439
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining me, Sean. We're going to be back

2272
01:34:54,880 --> 01:34:57,719
Speaker 1: with our NL Part two, previewing all the win totals

2273
01:34:57,720 --> 01:35:01,040
Speaker 1: and the division futures and fantasy players. Thanks for joining us.

2274
01:35:01,160 --> 01:35:03,600
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next time. Peace out, see you.

2275
01:35:45,160 --> 01:35:46,240
Speaker 4: We're finished talking