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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's for the winds.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 1: Here we go, throwing job spectacular.

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Speaker 2: I'm saying it to cats.

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Speaker 3: Stop.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to win. God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabay.

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Speaker 3: You want to pay and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybond, and this is your NFL Week number six

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Speaker 2: betting preview with odds courtesy of bet MGM, the official

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Speaker 2: odds provider of the Action Network Podcast. I am joint

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Speaker 2: as always by my Action Network colleague and the Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Su. What's going on? How

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Speaker 2: is your Week five?

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Speaker 3: Uh? Small winding week? It was a little stressful. I

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Speaker 3: got I had the Bengals plus three, so that was

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Speaker 3: a roller coaster for about twenty five minutes. I was like,

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Speaker 3: I take the push, and then the Packers would miss,

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Speaker 3: and then I'd like, am I going to win? And

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Speaker 3: then the Bengals would miss a field goal? Back and

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Speaker 3: forth we go, and all meanwhile I'm wearing the entire time.

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Speaker 3: Rogers is gonna say f it. I'm gonna go down

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Speaker 3: to score a touch that now because I don't want

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Speaker 3: to kick another field goal and then we're going to

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Speaker 3: lose the plus three I had that and then I

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Speaker 3: had You know, it could have been a really nice day,

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Speaker 3: you know, since when the kicker actually celebrated the kick

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Speaker 3: that it actually went in and uh san Fran covered

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Speaker 3: versus Arizona in a game they were the better team

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Speaker 3: and you know, out gain them better yards for play.

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Speaker 3: They were like one for five on one for six

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Speaker 3: on fourth down, held Mary in check where just I

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Speaker 3: got stuffed at the one. Just an unlucky game. So

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Speaker 3: a couple of games that I could add bounces on,

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Speaker 3: but they'll they'll leave it out. It was a small

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Speaker 3: profitable weekend and uh, like I always say, who cares?

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Speaker 3: We are on to the next.

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Speaker 2: I would have had a much better week. I think

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Speaker 2: it was pretty much break even or it's profitable on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: But then I lost the Ravens first half Monday, but

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Speaker 2: the Vikings were up ten and I had him minus

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Speaker 2: eight and a half and they were up ten. They

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Speaker 2: get a sack of golf on fourth down, deep in line.

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Speaker 2: Next thing, and so like I kind of wrote off

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Speaker 2: the game like they weren't showing it on red zone

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Speaker 2: for all. I'm like, okay, this is to the bag

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Speaker 2: and then all of a sudden it pops back up

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Speaker 2: and the Lions have another field goal, and then I'm like,

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Speaker 2: oh great, and then you know, for them to pretty

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Speaker 2: much almost lose that game, which just yeah, it was nuts,

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Speaker 2: but I couldn't believe it.

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Speaker 3: I was like, the lines are really going to take

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Speaker 3: me out a Survivor like this.

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Speaker 2: We've got some close calls because I think we had

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Speaker 2: the Banquin too. We've had some really close calls man,

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Speaker 2: and I already I think we're gonna go same Survivor

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Speaker 2: team this week. I already don't feel good about him.

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Speaker 2: So we'll see how this goes. But yeah, let's get

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Speaker 2: into We'll get into our Thursday night football preview in

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Speaker 2: a second before we kick things off to quick reminders. First,

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Speaker 2: if you plan to bet on any wherever and you

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Speaker 2: still have it downloaded, the award winning Free Action Network app,

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Speaker 2: what are you doing? It's got betting tools, it lets

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Speaker 2: you shot for the best lines, it's got analysis for

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Speaker 2: me Stucky the whole Action Network team, and most importantly,

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Speaker 2: it lets you track every bet that you make. And second,

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Speaker 2: if you need to reference our Sunday six Pack picks anytime,

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Speaker 2: all you have to do is use the Action app

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Speaker 2: and follow Sunday six Pack because we use that account

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Speaker 2: to track those picks. They're they're posted every Friday. All right, stuck,

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Speaker 2: Let's get into Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night football, all right.

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Speaker 2: So we have the Tampa Bay Bucks going on the

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Speaker 2: road to visit the Philadelphia Eagles. Bucks seven as road

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Speaker 2: favorites with a total of fifty two and a half.

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Speaker 2: I got my Randall Cunningham nineteen ninety two Eagles throwback

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Speaker 2: on what do you think of the game? Seven point

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay spread total fifty two and a half.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I like the Eagles here. If you can

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Speaker 3: get a seven or better, I'd make this right around five.

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Speaker 3: And I think that there's some things working in the

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Speaker 3: Eagles favor here. I mean, number one, the Bucks injuries.

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Speaker 3: You know, Goblin got announced in today. He's fine, Brady's

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Speaker 3: thumbs a little band up. I assume he's fine. But

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Speaker 3: Gronk's out. That hurts in the red zone. Like, that's

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Speaker 3: just that's those third downs to him, and you know

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Speaker 3: they have put another good tight end, but Gronk and

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Speaker 3: Brady have such a good repertoire down near the five

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Speaker 3: and the ten, and it just might hurt him on

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Speaker 3: a you know, install a driver. Two. They're starting center,

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Speaker 3: who's excellent, Ryan Jensen, he's questionable. That's really important because

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Speaker 3: the Eagles can get a lot of pressure up the

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Speaker 3: middle if he can't go, and then you know, if

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Speaker 3: their entire secondary is just decimated by injuries, you have

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Speaker 3: Davis and Murphy Bunting still an ir Winfield was ruled

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Speaker 3: out today. So you know, when you look at this

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Speaker 3: Bucks team, what's happening is it's really shocking. They are

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Speaker 3: They're blitzing at the highest rate in the NFL and

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Speaker 3: they're only getting pressure on twenty they're like twenty fifth

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Speaker 3: in pressure rate and they're twenty third EPA per play

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Speaker 3: and twenty fourth and success rate overall on defense twenty

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Speaker 3: fifth when teams drop back number one when teams run.

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Speaker 3: So what is happening with the Bucks? Well, number one,

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Speaker 3: they have some injuries in the secondary, but teams have

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Speaker 3: figured out a script with when they're playing Tampa, and

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Speaker 3: the reason that they're not getting pressure is it's just hey,

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Speaker 3: short passes. You saw it with Dallas in Week one.

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Speaker 3: This is how we're going to move the ball on you.

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Speaker 3: We're not going to let you get the pressure, and

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Speaker 3: then they're gonna you know, it helps that you have

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Speaker 3: a banged up secondary, so that's a good thing. And

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Speaker 3: that's you know why they're not getting getting home to

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks because there's just quarterbacks are getting rid of the

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Speaker 3: ball so quick. That's a good thing for the Eagles

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Speaker 3: because they don't run the ball. I don't know, in

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Speaker 3: some circumstances, I want them to run the ball, you know,

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Speaker 3: inside the five yard line against the Chiefs, run the ball.

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Speaker 3: I mean, do you see the Bills on Monday Night?

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Speaker 3: Just seize part and instead they're kicking fill it. So

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Speaker 3: there's certain times Eagles against the Cowboys run the ball

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Speaker 3: a little bit against that run defense. But I think

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Speaker 3: that works in their favorite here. You don't want to

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Speaker 3: run it ever against Tampa ever.

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Speaker 2: Ever.

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Speaker 3: You know, the only they're running backs are averaging less

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Speaker 3: than fourteen carries per game in total between game Well

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Speaker 3: and Sanders, so the runs that they should have are

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Speaker 3: hurt scrambling, which which is fine, and then short passes

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Speaker 3: and then they can attack this beat up Tampa's secondary.

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Speaker 3: The Eagles are pretty much healthy across the board after

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Speaker 3: you know, they've lost a couple of players for the year.

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Speaker 3: But my Yachts is going to play. He played at

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Speaker 3: right tackle last week, his first game at right tackle.

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Speaker 3: I think will be more comfortable this week. And this

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Speaker 3: is really important also is that Andre Dillard is playing

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Speaker 3: left tackle. He's been playing pretty well if you look

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Speaker 3: back at his stats historically, and this might tie into

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Speaker 3: why part of the reason why they don't give the

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Speaker 3: Eagle Syriany towards credit, why the Eagles aren't running it

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Speaker 3: more is Door's an awful run blocker, but he's a

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Speaker 3: really good uh. He's really good in pass protection. So again, Eagles,

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Speaker 3: I assume if they start running it here, I will

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Speaker 3: give up on this team and never bet them again.

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Speaker 3: So I think Dodo will be fine here. Uh in

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Speaker 3: pass protection. And so you know the Eagles defense, they

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Speaker 3: can get pressure up the middle. That's how you have

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Speaker 3: to beat Brady. They're gonna have two deep safeties. That's

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Speaker 3: how you have to try and slow down Brady. Uh.

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Speaker 3: You know, Tampa's gonna move the ball some, but I

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Speaker 3: think Philly can keep up. This is too many points

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Speaker 3: on a short week. Eagles showed me some things last

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Speaker 3: week that they're you know, headed a little bit in

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Speaker 3: the right direction. It's worth noting that these two teams

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Speaker 3: are top five in in pace and neutral situations. If

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Speaker 3: you're looking at the total, I think it's about right.

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Speaker 3: But that did scare me off, and I had it

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Speaker 3: a little high. But that scared me off of looking

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Speaker 3: at the under. Not enough value there. But I like

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Speaker 3: the Eagles or anything seven or better.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's really important to point out that,

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Speaker 2: like they don't need to run in this game. Like

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Speaker 2: that's that's kind of what you're looking for when a

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Speaker 2: team like Tampa Bay a week and a certain aspect

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Speaker 2: and you're gonna kind of minimize that. But also, and

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Speaker 2: we talked about this last week, Tampa Bay blitzing. Who

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Speaker 2: did the Eagles face Last week? They faced Carolina who

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Speaker 2: actually blitzed at the highest rate. Now, Carolina did not

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Speaker 2: blitz nearly as much as they had been blitzing, then

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Speaker 2: only blitzed Hurts on twenty two percent of his dropbacks,

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Speaker 2: and they were butitzering at about a forty percent rate

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Speaker 2: overall heading into that game. But on the nine times

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Speaker 2: that they blitzed, six completions in nine attempts, no sacks,

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Speaker 2: eleven point eight yards per attempt. So Jalen Hurts continues

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Speaker 2: to have success against the blitz This season alone, He's

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Speaker 2: averaging nine point two yards per attempt, four touchdowns, no picks,

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Speaker 2: and a passer rating of one thirteen point four when blitzed.

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Speaker 2: So he is really killing, you know, killings when they blitzed.

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Speaker 2: And so now Tampa Bay, I mean you're kind of

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Speaker 2: in between a rock and a hard plays. The run

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Speaker 2: defense is gonna kind of be minimized, which is what

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Speaker 2: they really do. Well. If they bring pressure with extra rushers,

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Speaker 2: then Hurts is gonna beat them, especially with their secondary

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Speaker 2: so banged up. But if they sit back and coverage,

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Speaker 2: you know, I don't know how effective they'll be given that.

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Speaker 2: You know, receivers are still gonna have time to come

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Speaker 2: open against this. The secondary, I don't know how long

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Speaker 2: they can hold up on that back end. You're gonna

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Speaker 2: make Richard Sherman play a ton Hurts, you know, even

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Speaker 2: with defenders looking at him. You know, in that in

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Speaker 2: the zone. He can still run the football. He's still

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Speaker 2: capable of, you know, picking up key games when he

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Speaker 2: needs to. So uh yeah, I think I make the

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Speaker 2: number six. The Bucks offense I think will still be

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Speaker 2: fine even without Gronk. I like this more as a

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Speaker 2: tease piece. I wouldn't I would go Eagles on the

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Speaker 2: normal spread here because I agree I think seven is

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Speaker 2: a bit much here. But uh yeah, it's it's it's

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Speaker 2: a good matchup, another good matchup for the Eagles offense

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Speaker 2: against the Bucks defense. And maybe the Bucks don't blitz

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Speaker 2: as much. That's what Carolina did. But Carolina at this

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Speaker 2: point probably has you know, more going for its defense

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Speaker 2: than this banged up Bucks back end.

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Speaker 3: So yeah. Oh and I don't even mention Lemonte David

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Speaker 3: is out. Yeah, one of the best linebackers the NFL.

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Speaker 2: But this is probably I mean, the more I think

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Speaker 2: about it, it's probably an over game. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 2: you're combined the pace with the fact that Tampa Bay's

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Speaker 2: missing some key guys. Now, maybe you just see some

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Speaker 2: some Thursday night weirdness, you know sometimes you know, teams

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Speaker 2: just come out flat on Thursday night on offense. You know,

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Speaker 2: we've saw Brady wasn't. I think that was a Thursday

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Speaker 2: night game when Brady forgot what down. It was a

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Speaker 2: couple of years last year against the players, So we

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Speaker 2: see these things. But if I had a wean out

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Speaker 2: Lean over uh Lean Eagle and Tampa Bay, if you

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Speaker 2: want to tease it, it's you know, still the line

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Speaker 2: is still seven at bet MGM, so you'd get a

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Speaker 2: one point when kind of if I see the game

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Speaker 2: actually playing out very similarly to the last time Tampa

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Speaker 2: Bay played an NFC Easter poll it on Thursday against

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys, when the Cowboys were able to kind of

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Speaker 2: move it up and down the field. The Cowboy did

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Speaker 2: get some turnovers. Maybe I don't We'll see if the

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Speaker 2: Eagles can do that, but I do think Tampa Bay

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Speaker 2: will be lucky to escape with like a small victory here.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, that's that's defense is also much healthier for.

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Speaker 2: That game, right, Yeah, exactly, No, I think that. I mean,

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Speaker 2: looking back on it now, you know, we didn't know

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Speaker 2: that in Week one, but I think Dallas probably has

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Speaker 2: a better defense than Philadelphia, which you know, coming into

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Speaker 2: Week one, we didn't think that, but you know, philad

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Speaker 2: I mean they've been solid. They're eleventh to Dvoa. You know,

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Speaker 2: they've struggling against the run, So maybe Tampa Bay keeps

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Speaker 2: it on the ground. That keeps the number down.

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Speaker 3: Which again I think would be a good thing for

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Speaker 3: that if they're making Tampa run, which I think they're

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Speaker 3: going to try to do.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think yeah, short week, I could see Tampa running.

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Speaker 2: Stephen Corey little bang up too.

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Speaker 3: Yep.

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Speaker 2: All right, that's gonna do it for our Thursday night

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Speaker 2: football preview. Let's give people what they want, and that

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Speaker 2: is the Sunday six Pack presented by our friends at

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Speaker 2: Athletic Brewing.

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Speaker 3: Company Thursday for action.

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Speaker 1: Let's crack open the Sunday six Pack.

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Speaker 2: All right, Stuck, good week for you. You posted within

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Speaker 2: one nineteen eighteen meters. I believe you hit got like

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Speaker 2: four of the six total points. Last week I only

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Speaker 2: got one. Keep it moving. We're still doing pretty well

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Speaker 2: in the year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. We'll get to a money line part lay too,

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Speaker 3: which we hit again. Oh yeah, five weeks.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't complain about that now. It's it's been

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Speaker 2: a good year overall for the pod.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: We've been trying to give you the reason in behind

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Speaker 2: the picks. Obviously, you guys are gonna make the final decision,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, I feel like we've been doing doing pretty good.

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Speaker 2: Is keep it up.

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Speaker 3: I'll sweet on an update by the way, when I

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Speaker 3: tweet out the pod. But yeah, going into last week,

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Speaker 3: we had forty plays total going into last weekend and

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Speaker 3: we were twenty seven and thirteen sixty eight percent on

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Speaker 3: all forty plays. And that's not including tour money on

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Speaker 3: underdog Carlays. So I'll update that after this week. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: we're killing it. Let's keep killing it, so goad.

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Speaker 2: For my first pick of the week, six Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 2: I am going with the Pittsburgh Steelers minus four and

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Speaker 2: a half at bet MGM at home against the Seattle Seahawks.

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Speaker 2: And this is not a spot I thought i'd be

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Speaker 2: taken as early as last week, but looking at what's

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Speaker 2: going on with the Seahawks here and Russell Wilson going

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Speaker 2: down and Gino Smits having a step in, I think

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh can actually get some separation in this spot. And

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Speaker 2: the big reason why obviously everyone's gonna probably tweet out

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Speaker 2: and talk to me about the Pittsburgh offense, which still

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Speaker 2: needs work, but Pittsburgh's defense they're number five in pressure rate.

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Speaker 2: Gino Smith last week he looked good, right, like everyone

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Speaker 2: saw Prime time aw Gino touchdown drive. Geno Smith under

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Speaker 2: pressure in that game too, of eight twelve yards and

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Speaker 2: a pick. So the real issue is that the Ram.

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Speaker 2: It was late in the game. The Rams are kind

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Speaker 2: of playing back, you know, on a lot of key plays.

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Speaker 2: But when he was under pressure, he did absolutely nothing. Now,

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Speaker 2: Gino Smith hasn't really played much in a while, but

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Speaker 2: I went back to his last full season as a

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Speaker 2: starter with the Jets under pressure, thirty eight point five

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Speaker 2: percent completions, a fifty two point eight passer rating. So

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Speaker 2: and this is his numbers throughout his career under pressure.

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Speaker 2: That's why he's not a starting quarterback in this league.

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Speaker 2: So you're in Pittsburgh in a hostile environment. I know

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Speaker 2: they got the long week, but it's still Geno Smith pressure,

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Speaker 2: hostile environment. And then you look on the other side,

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Speaker 2: and there were some encouraging things I saw from Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: in that game against Denver. Now, obviously the defense still

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Speaker 2: had to steal it with the interception at the end,

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Speaker 2: but Pittsburgh did get a pretty big lead in that game.

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Speaker 2: And now they faced Seattle's defense, which is ranked twenty

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Speaker 2: fifth in DVOA. And remember that schedule adjusted, this is

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Speaker 2: the easiest defense Pittsburgh has faced all year. So while

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's offenses there's obviously some concerns there, we also have

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Speaker 2: to put in a contest. They faced four top thirteen

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Speaker 2: defenses by DVOA, Buffalo number one, Cincinnati number seven, Denver

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Speaker 2: number ten, and Vegas number thirteen. It's Vegas been a

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Speaker 2: surprisingly good defense this year. You know, Krosby getting a

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Speaker 2: lot of pressure, and then green Bay was twenty if

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Speaker 2: that was the one, you know, below average unit they faced,

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Speaker 2: and that was still five spots better than the Seattle defense.

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Speaker 2: So that's number one. They faced a tough schedule.

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Speaker 3: Two.

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh did something interesting last week in their run game.

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Speaker 2: They switched to exclusively a man blocking seme they didn't

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Speaker 2: run any zone, any outside zone anything. They all manned

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Speaker 2: all man blocking for every single run play last week,

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Speaker 2: and they actually put up one hundred and thirty five

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Speaker 2: rushing yards. They averaged four point two in attempt but

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Speaker 2: the big thing they averaged one point seven yards before contact.

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Speaker 2: In the first four weeks, they had sixty four carries

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Speaker 2: and had just sixty one yards before contact, so less

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Speaker 2: than a yard on average before contact in week one

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Speaker 2: before you know, and granted I thought Fangio could have

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Speaker 2: done some things different, but I really think what it

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Speaker 2: was was just putting a hat on a hat and

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Speaker 2: going forward. You know, there was none of this get

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Speaker 2: to his nagy going forward? Yeah, I get nage going

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Speaker 2: forward because remember what did Naji specialize that in school?

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Speaker 2: This is the reason I thought it was a good

334
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Speaker 2: fit here. I thought it was a better pick than

335
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Speaker 2: like etn going to the Jaguars, which we'll never know

336
00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:30,200
Speaker 2: because he got hurt. But you know it's Nagi specialized

337
00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,600
Speaker 2: in his yards after contact going forward, you know, covering

338
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,000
Speaker 2: up for an O line. So if they could do this,

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00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,480
Speaker 2: they can get another two possession lead like they did

340
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Speaker 2: against Denver, and then you know, maybe they get a

341
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Speaker 2: backdoor weaight, you know, if they don't put if they're

342
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Speaker 2: kind of playing coverage weight and Geno you know, he

343
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Speaker 2: is able to throw from a quan pocket. Again, they

344
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Speaker 2: do have a metcalf and Lockett and those are good receivers.

345
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Speaker 2: But really the issue here is you're in a hostile

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Speaker 2: environment for Geno and he's just been completely terrible versus

347
00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:02,240
Speaker 2: pressure and Pittsburgh's off it's trending up. It may not

348
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Speaker 2: be as poor as we initially thought, Like there's still concerns,

349
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Speaker 2: but this is gonna be the easiest defense state face.

350
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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna buy on this Pittsburgh team now because

351
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Speaker 2: I could see myself still fading them a lot down

352
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Speaker 2: to stretch. They're gonna have issues, especially if they can't

353
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Speaker 2: stay healthy. But I like them in this spot minus

354
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Speaker 2: four and a half against Seattle, I take this up

355
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Speaker 2: to five and a half. I expect Pittsburgh to win

356
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Speaker 2: by a possession or more.

357
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Speaker 3: Look, I don't think I can point to the Steelers

358
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Speaker 3: offense especially yet fair. This is a spot where they

359
00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:35,240
Speaker 3: generally come out flat, like they just won a game,

360
00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,200
Speaker 3: a big game, and now they're playing Gino Smith as

361
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,679
Speaker 3: a favorite. So Steelers fans are probably a little nervous

362
00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,080
Speaker 3: here about this game, like they can see Gino Smith

363
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Speaker 3: beating them. But I agree. I think it's if you're

364
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Speaker 3: gonna bet this at Steelers or nothing, I mean the Seahawks.

365
00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:51,240
Speaker 3: I think this line should be closer to six. The

366
00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:56,639
Speaker 3: Seahawks without Russ are like to poverty. I mean, like

367
00:17:57,200 --> 00:17:59,879
Speaker 3: they're one of the worst teams in the NFL. I mean,

368
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,600
Speaker 3: what do they have? They just have receivers. Their defense

369
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:06,200
Speaker 3: is terrible. They have a couple of could decent tackle

370
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 3: but like their in tier offensive line is bad. Like,

371
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:11,520
Speaker 3: there's nothing really good about this team. Then I just

372
00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:13,400
Speaker 3: have receivers, but they have Gino Smith West to get

373
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:17,159
Speaker 3: them the ball. They have a bad defense. So this

374
00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:18,520
Speaker 3: is a really bad This is all of a sudden

375
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,480
Speaker 3: becomes a really bad team. I think, Yeah, this is

376
00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,520
Speaker 3: a team that I only thought was average, and now

377
00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:27,840
Speaker 3: you lose the one guy that can cover games for them,

378
00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,600
Speaker 3: win games for them, elevate them, and on a week

379
00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:32,960
Speaker 3: to week basis, you lose him. I mean it's a

380
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:34,680
Speaker 3: guy who you know you could argue as an MVP

381
00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:38,680
Speaker 3: conversation every single year. So I don't disagree. I think

382
00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:40,280
Speaker 3: it's either Pittsburgh or nothing.

383
00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:42,520
Speaker 2: I knew you were gonna come at me with Pittsburgh

384
00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:46,040
Speaker 2: potentially coming out flat, and I was worried about that too.

385
00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,119
Speaker 2: Apparently it happens more in road games when they're on

386
00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 2: their favorites. But I got a trend though, because I

387
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:55,239
Speaker 2: know the listeners are probably still throwing up, you know,

388
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 2: thinking like, oh, man, do I want to bet Pittsburgh

389
00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:59,359
Speaker 2: in wait points? So I do have a trend. So

390
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,479
Speaker 2: the line open got three and a half, It's up

391
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:03,520
Speaker 2: to four and a half, even five at some books.

392
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Speaker 2: So I looked this up. When Roethlisberger is the quarterback

393
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:12,200
Speaker 2: and the line moves in his favor when Pittsburgh's at

394
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:17,000
Speaker 2: home twenty three eight and one, seventy four percent against

395
00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:20,440
Speaker 2: the spread, you know, in his career, So the market

396
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,239
Speaker 2: tends to be a good, like a reliable indicator of

397
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:26,479
Speaker 2: when to fade Pittsburgh in these spots. This is not

398
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 2: one of those times they're covering, you know, with that

399
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,439
Speaker 2: twenty three eight and one record, they're covering by an

400
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 2: average of four point two a game. So again that's

401
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 2: why I think that, you know, just stepping back, I

402
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:39,440
Speaker 2: think Pittsburgh can you know, if I was just kind

403
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,199
Speaker 2: of handicapping this without numbers, I'd say Pittsburgh probably can

404
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:43,960
Speaker 2: get up by a touchdown here and hold them off,

405
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:47,359
Speaker 2: you know, in most scoring game. But yeah, that's just

406
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:48,840
Speaker 2: how to throw that trend out there, because I was

407
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 2: worried about it too. But this hack actually hasn't been

408
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 2: like one of those, you know, terrible spots historically, at

409
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,439
Speaker 2: least for Big Ben. Of course he's not as good anymore,

410
00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:00,240
Speaker 2: so well maybe that's out the window, but worth noting.

411
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Speaker 3: It's a good point. It does usually happen on the road.

412
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Speaker 3: For my first pick and the second overall pick of

413
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Speaker 3: the Sunday six back, I'm going with the Cleveland Browns

414
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 3: minus three at home against the Arizona Cardinals. Look, when

415
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:17,200
Speaker 3: against the Cardinals last week, would do it? Would bet

416
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 3: more if you told me how that game played out.

417
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:21,880
Speaker 3: They were the better team with a rookie quarterback making

418
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:23,560
Speaker 3: his first start on the road. They outgained them in

419
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 3: more yards, were played in, more opportunities inside the red zone.

420
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,120
Speaker 3: I mean one for five and fourth down, they get

421
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 3: one of those, they cover two of them, they win.

422
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:36,160
Speaker 3: They just in Arizona couldn't do anything against a San

423
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 3: Frantine that was missing, a San Francisco team that was

424
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:42,959
Speaker 3: missing many different players, starting a rookie quarterback. So just

425
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 3: this love for Arizona's there's certain factors that aren't being

426
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 3: baked into their numbers, right, I love them week one? Yeah, yeah,

427
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,919
Speaker 3: And I said, look, this is all about Tennessee is

428
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 3: not ready yet. They're dealing with COVID new offense. Blah

429
00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,840
Speaker 3: blah blah. That's all that was. Now they're getting credit

430
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,640
Speaker 3: for that win in their numbers. They're still getting credit

431
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,399
Speaker 3: for the win over San fran But this was a

432
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:08,360
Speaker 3: rookie quarterback Beick in his first start and they got

433
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,840
Speaker 3: out played anyway, but it banged up forty nine ers team.

434
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 3: They were beaten. They were They played the Jags and

435
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 3: they were losing by nine late in the third quarter,

436
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 3: before you know, a pick six, a pick on a

437
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 3: flea flicker. They beat the Vikings on a Vikings missed

438
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 3: a field goal. They had one really impressive win over

439
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 3: the Rams. That's it. And this is carrying them just

440
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 3: so far in everyone's eyes. And because they're undefeated, they

441
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 3: remind me a lot of the stealers of last year

442
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,120
Speaker 3: that they're just they're stealing these wins and everyone thinks

443
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,439
Speaker 3: they're a lot better than they really are. Now. Obviously

444
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 3: I have Kyler Murray instead of Ben Roethlisberger, but Kyler

445
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 3: Murray is dealing with a shoulder injury, and we've seen

446
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 3: that go pretty bad before, and I think that might

447
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 3: have factored into why the offense looked so stagnant last week.

448
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 3: So keep an eye on that. There's also it looks

449
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,639
Speaker 3: like twenty mile an hour wins in Cleveland up to

450
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,719
Speaker 3: thirty mile a hour win. Gusts Well gets who that

451
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,719
Speaker 3: favors the Browns. In their running game, the Cardinals are

452
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,400
Speaker 3: allowing five point four yards per carry, that's thirty first

453
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 3: in the NFL. Their linebackers really struggle against the Ron

454
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 3: Hicks and Simmons. You know, I just think that the

455
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:20,160
Speaker 3: Browns can go really heavy here, and you know, there's

456
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 3: a chance Landry comes back. I doubt it, but I

457
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 3: think they can just dominate the line of scrimmage here

458
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 3: and run all over this Cardinals team. No Chandler Jones

459
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 3: for the Cardinals as well. And you know, if Baker

460
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,199
Speaker 3: Mayfield does have to throw it, that's huge because you

461
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 3: look at him again this year, as drastic of splits

462
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 3: as any quarterback, and that will went under pressure versus not.

463
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 3: So if he does have to throw every you know

464
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 3: he's gonna have to throw it once in a while.

465
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 3: That's big that Chandler Jones is not playing, you know,

466
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 3: the Browns. He could easily be the five and zero

467
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:51,439
Speaker 3: team here and the Cardinals could be three and two

468
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:52,879
Speaker 3: and this line would be where it was in the

469
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 3: preseason around five and a half. The Browns lost last

470
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:57,480
Speaker 3: week to the Chargers. Again, they could have won if

471
00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:59,880
Speaker 3: not for a botched PI call and the charters going

472
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 3: fifty to fifty on fourth down, and then they lost

473
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 3: to the Chiefs on a boxed punk play. So, you know,

474
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 3: I just think that you're getting some value here with

475
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 3: the Browns in a good situation, especially when you consider

476
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,399
Speaker 3: that there's going to be twenty maybe thirty mile an

477
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 3: hour wind gusts here. Kyler Murray could be banged up.

478
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 3: Joe Woods also does an excellent job of taken away

479
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 3: opposing number one receivers Hopkins Max Williams. Their tight end

480
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 3: is now out. I think the Cardinals also have some

481
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,919
Speaker 3: third down regression coming on both sides. Arizona's defense is

482
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 3: thirty first in success rate on early downs, which is

483
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 3: more predictive the Browns, by the way, their defense number one,

484
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 3: and on third downs the Browns are twenty the Cardinals

485
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 3: are fourth. So this Cardinals defense has been overperforming on

486
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 3: third down. But ultimately, I just think that they're into

487
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,719
Speaker 3: your defensive line in their linebackers are just not going

488
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:52,919
Speaker 3: to be able to hold up here. This reminds me

489
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 3: a lot of the Seahawks game last year. Arizona at

490
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 3: home picked that picked off a five and oh Seattle team.

491
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 3: There's also a big coaching edge here, so give me Stefanski.

492
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,640
Speaker 3: Everyone's talking about Brandon Staley going for it on fourth down.

493
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 3: If you look at the charts and see who's gone

494
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 3: for it when they should have, Brady Staley is the

495
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 3: middle of the pack. Stefanski is way up ahead of everybody.

496
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 3: So give me Stefanski here too. So I think that

497
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 3: there's a lot working in the Browns favor here. It's

498
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 3: worth noting Greedy Williams, Denzel Ward Newsome. Their three corners

499
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 3: were all questionable all practice today. J Okay is fine.

500
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 3: It looks like Will's as a go. I think shredders

501
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,400
Speaker 3: from people I talk to who is going to play.

502
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,639
Speaker 3: You know, Garrett is banged up, but they people expect

503
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 3: him to play. So Cleveland is a little nicked up,

504
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 3: but it's not as bad as it could have been

505
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 3: based on the reports today. So give me the Browns

506
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 3: minus three. You could find up two and a half

507
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 3: juiced up to like if you find like a minus

508
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 3: one twenty, I would prefer that but I think the

509
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 3: Browns get this done here on the back of their

510
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 3: defense in a windy environment and their running game, which

511
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 3: is the best in the NFL.

512
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,200
Speaker 2: We you essentially think the Browns are gonna probably win

513
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 2: by like a touchdown plus because like there might not

514
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:09,959
Speaker 2: be as many kicks in this game either. Like that's

515
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 2: why you're because like minus three. I know you don't

516
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 2: usually take the minus threes, especially on the show because

517
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 2: of the you know, the zero points.

518
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:17,679
Speaker 3: Well I took it. I took it too. Yeah, I

519
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 3: took it too and a half. But I think that, Yeah,

520
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 3: I mean, their field goals are less likely in this game,

521
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 3: especially with two more aggressive coaches on fourth downs and

522
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 3: against this run defense, I expect the Browns to be

523
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 3: going for it a lot on fourth and short, trying

524
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 3: to get touchdowns. So yeah, I think that this is

525
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 3: a reality check for the Cardinals in Cleveland. It's just

526
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,479
Speaker 3: a bad it's a it's a bad matchup, and then

527
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 3: the wind just makes it a nightmare. And then if

528
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:46,160
Speaker 3: Kyler Murray's shoulder is really hurt, they have no shot.

529
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:48,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is one because I'm I'm kind of, you know,

530
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 2: very tempted to already bet this one and it already

531
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 2: moved to three. So that's kind of why I was

532
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 2: like a little more hesitant because I didn't get to

533
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,719
Speaker 2: two and a half. But when I saw Chandler Jones

534
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 2: and the center Rodney Hudson for the Cardinals gonna be

535
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 2: out in addition to the Murray injury, I mean that

536
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 2: always sets off a red alert for me when you

537
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 2: have the center and the top pass rush. Now, it

538
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 2: didn't work out last week with the Lions, but we

539
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 2: all saw that game. The Vikings were up ten and

540
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 2: should have covered that or at least pushed if you

541
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 2: got the ten and they just collapsed. The Browns, you know,

542
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 2: Nick Chubb, kareem hunt if they're in that spot, they're

543
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:21,199
Speaker 2: not likely to do it. So you just see these

544
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 2: things usually play out that way more often than not.

545
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm probably gonna go Browns here, But yeah,

546
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 2: I'm just curious about that. The number. Wasn't sure if

547
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 2: I should still take it. All right, For my second

548
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 2: pick and the third overall pick of the week, six

549
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, We're gonna get ugly. We're gonna get

550
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 2: ugly and go with the Chicago Bears plus four and

551
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 2: a half home dog to the mighty Green Bay Packers,

552
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 2: which I happen to think are in fact not so mighty.

553
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 2: Looking at the Packers, this is the only team in

554
00:26:56,000 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 2: the league that's four and one with a negative point differentially.

555
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,879
Speaker 2: They still haven't quite recovered from that blowout loss to

556
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 2: the Saints in Week one. But remember point differential is

557
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 2: more predictive than you know, win loss record. This is

558
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 2: the point in the season where I think people still

559
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 2: overreact to these kind of things, especially when you have

560
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 2: a reputation. The Packers have this reputation because of Aaron Rodgers,

561
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:18,639
Speaker 2: because they made the playoffs. You know, the Bears have

562
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 2: a totally different reputation. But like, just looking back on it,

563
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 2: in Week six, you have underdogs plus three or more

564
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: against a favorite with a winning against the spread record

565
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 2: who also made the playoffs the last year. The underdogs

566
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,719
Speaker 2: are thirty six twelve and three against the spread seventy

567
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:38,199
Speaker 2: five percent since two thousand and three according to our

568
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 2: Action Labs data. But really, what I'm looking at here

569
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,199
Speaker 2: is the way Chicago's kind of changed the way they

570
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,879
Speaker 2: played too. I think Chicago can just muck up this game,

571
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 2: and even if Green Bay wins, I think it's by three,

572
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 2: maybe it's by four. So I love the hook at

573
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,400
Speaker 2: the four and a half. Green Bay's twentieth in defensive DVOA,

574
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 2: but they're twenty ninth against the rush. Chicago in the

575
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 2: last two weeks seventy six runs, just forty one passes.

576
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 2: They're going sixty five percent run. They're running, you know,

577
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 2: two thirds at a time on early downs. So and

578
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 2: they're max protecting. And so Green Bay's doing you know,

579
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 2: they don't have no jyr Alexander so justin fields here

580
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 2: he can move around a little bit. He hasn't been running,

581
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:18,639
Speaker 2: but I think he's gonna. I think, you know, Moody

582
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 2: and Robinson against this secondary in a max protect scheme

583
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,679
Speaker 2: supported by a running game with you know, Williams Khalil

584
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 2: Herbert looked really good last week, you know, eighteen carries

585
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 2: for seventy five yards. I just think Chicago can muck

586
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 2: up this game, keep it close. On the year, green

587
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 2: Bay is twenty sixth in early down success rate on offense.

588
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 2: That's two spots worse than the Bears. That's counting the

589
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 2: all the Andy Dalton starts, that's counting the justin fields.

590
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 2: You know, nightmare, you know first start against Cleveland. The

591
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 2: Bears have still been more successful on average on early

592
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,719
Speaker 2: downs than the Green Bay Packers. Now, the Packers did

593
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 2: play some tough defenses, but that just kind of shows

594
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 2: you that this Packers team is vulnerable. It's really only

595
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 2: DeVante Adams. And guess what the Bears they haven't They

596
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 2: haven't been allowing much to opposing number one receivers, just

597
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 2: fifty point nine schedule adjusted yards per game to opposing

598
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 2: number one receivers. That second fewests in the league for

599
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 2: Chicago run. But the issue is, and they're gonna move

600
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 2: Devonte Adams around, but you know, Chicago leads the league

601
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 2: in sacks. The pressure rate hasn't been as great as

602
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 2: you think considering they're reading the lead in sacks. But

603
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 2: this is going to be a game in Chicago, physical game.

604
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 2: I think the Bears playing physical, the Packers not doing

605
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 2: good on early downs. Rogers without you, and you talked

606
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 2: about it last week. I think without Valvedez Scantling, it

607
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 2: really does change that offense a little because Aaron Rodgers

608
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 2: could keep defenses honest, you know, kind of chucking one

609
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 2: to Valdez Scantling every once in a while. Even if

610
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 2: they didn't complete it. Now it's really all about Adams.

611
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 2: Lizard just runs wind sprints out there. He's like invisible

612
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 2: Randall Cobb. You know he's up there in age. He's

613
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 2: not really a difference maker on a consistent down and

614
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 2: down basis. The running game is. It's twenty six in

615
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 2: early down success. Right, Dylan's kind of mixing in more

616
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 2: than maybe they had planned to. So Jones had the

617
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 2: one long run last week. But I just see this

618
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 2: Packer offense really not necessarily being able to separate in

619
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 2: this kind of game. Low total in Chicago, Bears going

620
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 2: heavy every play. You know, the Bears will play the

621
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 2: field position game. You know, if Rogers and Davonte miss

622
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 2: it on any given down, it's probably a punt on

623
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 2: that down. Green Bay has struggled in the red zone

624
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 2: this year. I don't know that's I think that regresses,

625
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 2: but that's worth noting. This is not necessarily the same

626
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 2: Packer team that we're used to. They're twenty seventh in

627
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,959
Speaker 2: red zone conversion rate on offense, they're until thirty second

628
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 2: dead last on defense. I don't know if this is

629
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 2: the spot where the Packers red zone offense regresses. They're

630
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 2: in Chicago, You're gonna have to rely on a field

631
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 2: goal kicker who's had some struggles. Last week was better

632
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 2: than Green Bay and red zone offense even though they've

633
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 2: struggled for most of the year on offense. So there's

634
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 2: just a lot of things lining up to where this

635
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 2: game it could be a lot poster than people think.

636
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 2: And I was I'm not going to go with them,

637
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 2: but I was very tempted to go also go with

638
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 2: them as my money line dog, because I just see

639
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 2: them mucking this game up, playing it real heavy, low

640
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 2: scoring game, keeping it real close. It's not pulling off

641
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 2: the upset. So Chicago plus four and a half at

642
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 2: home against Green Bay.

643
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'm might join you here. I think

644
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 3: the Bears will be able to get pressure, which is key.

645
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 3: I mean, Rogers when kept clean this year ten touchdowns,

646
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 3: one pick, eighty one percent adjusted completion percentage one hundred

647
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 3: and twenty two point six, rating third in the NFL.

648
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 3: Under pressure fourteen of thirty eight, forty seven percent adjusted

649
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 3: completion percentage, zero touchdowns, two picks. Thirty one's rating is

650
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 3: thirty one. That's dead last out of every any quarterback

651
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 3: with at least thirty dropbacks under pressure. Yeah, and you're right,

652
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 3: this Packer's offense doesn't. There was some regression coming for

653
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 3: this Packer's offense. If you last year all the touchdowns

654
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:51,719
Speaker 3: that were scoring in the red zone, so you're kind

655
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 3: of seeing that. Last year they were number one in

656
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 3: the red zone at seventy six point eight percent touchdown

657
00:31:56,640 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 3: percentage this year down to fifty five percent. So yeah,

658
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 3: maybe there's some positive aggression, but I think that there's

659
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 3: some issues with this offense. The offensive line. Look, they

660
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 3: develop off its line, but there's been so many moving

661
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 3: pieces and young kids in there. And look they they're

662
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 3: fifteenth in line yards this year and eighteenth and adjusted

663
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 3: zachrate last year they were fifth and sixth in those

664
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 3: two categories. The Packers offense last year number one and

665
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 3: EPA per play this year it's twelfth. Why, I mean

666
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 3: they miss mvs. The offensive line isn't as good. Robert

667
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 3: Tonan isn't as effectives to keep him in to help

668
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 3: protect you know, Wizard isn't getting separation, so it's just

669
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 3: not as effective. And then teams are just putting two

670
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 3: safeties back and then you know Javan d Adams is

671
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 3: gonna get his no. Matter what. So the offense has

672
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 3: some issues here. The defense is obviously missing a difference

673
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 3: maker in one of the best cornerbacks the NFLA still

674
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 3: miss Zavarius Smith. They can't defend the run out to

675
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 3: I agree, I think that's what the Bears do. I

676
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 3: kind of like the under here too. I think it's

677
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 3: lower scoring, which gives more value to the Bears. So

678
00:32:55,880 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 3: I don't disagree with you, all right. For my second pick,

679
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 3: in the fourth overall pick of the Sunday six back,

680
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 3: we are going back to all reliable Bill Belichick, who's

681
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 3: always treated me well when I take the Patriots on

682
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 3: this podcast plus three and a half at bet MGM

683
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 3: at home against the Cowboys. If you follow me on

684
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 3: the Action Network gap, you saw I took a four,

685
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 3: which is still out there. I don't know if it

686
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 3: will be by the time you're listening, but put some

687
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 3: key number. See if you can shop around and find

688
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 3: that four, which I think is important. I don't think

689
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 3: that this line should be over a field goal. I'm

690
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 3: selling high. I'm basically selling high on the Cowboys here.

691
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:35,479
Speaker 3: After they're five and zero against the spread. They'd won

692
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 3: four straight, three of which came at home. They're going

693
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 3: on the road, is a little bit of feeling good

694
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 3: about themselves, a little bit of a reality check, and

695
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 3: then more importantly, just inflation in the market. I think

696
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 3: because the Cowboys have been so good and they have

697
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 3: I mean, you look at their offense on early downs,

698
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 3: pass run. Their offense has been phenomenal. For what it's worth, though,

699
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 3: road favorites road favorites after three straight home games twenty

700
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 3: thirty five one against the spread since two thousand and three,

701
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 3: that's thirty six percent. After multiple wins in a row

702
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:09,280
Speaker 3: at home nine and twenty one against the spread thirty percent.

703
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 3: So not the biggest sample size, but it makes sense.

704
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 3: You have these teams at home, people see them winning,

705
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:15,800
Speaker 3: and then they go on the road, and it's a

706
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,240
Speaker 3: little bit of reality check. I could go into Belichick's

707
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 3: stats all day. Belichick twenty eight thirteen and two as

708
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,240
Speaker 3: a dog since two thousand and three. That's just sixty

709
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,720
Speaker 3: eight point three percent. He's covered by over six points

710
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 3: per game home underdog since two thousand Belichick fifteen and

711
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 3: four against the spread seventy nine percent with twelve outright wins.

712
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 3: October Bill, I want to get an October Bill. This

713
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 3: is when you know, the Patriots usually spend the first

714
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:45,719
Speaker 3: month or so figuring some things out, testing some things.

715
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:49,879
Speaker 3: October Bill fifty one twenty three and three sixty nine

716
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 3: percent nice since two thousand and three in October, he's

717
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 3: fifty six point seven percent against spreading all of the

718
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 3: months combined. This is his month. The commitment towards the championship.

719
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 3: That's what our goal is. That's all I really am

720
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 3: about is trying to win football games.

721
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:11,479
Speaker 2: Here you what an eight and sixty third time, So.

722
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,880
Speaker 3: You know, the Cowboys still have a very vulnerable run defense.

723
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 3: They're bottom five and pressure rate adjusted ZACH rate. So

724
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 3: I just think the Patriots getting they got. I think

725
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 3: they're going to be healthier on the offensive line. Last

726
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,439
Speaker 3: week they're missing four starters. They should get a couple

727
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 3: of those back this week. I think that they're going

728
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 3: to dominate the line of scrimmage and Jones, when he

729
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 3: needs to throw, will have time to do so because

730
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 3: and that's important for a rookie, because the Cowboys just

731
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 3: aren't generating pressure. The Dallas defensive stats look good, but

732
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:39,839
Speaker 3: it's all blue with by turnovers. I mean, this team

733
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 3: is second in EPA from turnovers, second and EPA from

734
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 3: net turnovers, but they plus twelve and turnover margin in

735
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 3: the year. They've recovered five of the seven fumbles that

736
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,359
Speaker 3: they've lost. The opponents have lost two of their three

737
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 3: that they've fumbled. Opponents are averaging over twenty more penalty

738
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 3: yards and two more penalties per game. I mean, just

739
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 3: there is so much regression coming to this Dallas defense.

740
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 3: And then on you know you want to throw, there's

741
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 3: value the line you want to throw. On top of

742
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,720
Speaker 3: all that, kind of the sprinkles on top of this play,

743
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 3: enormous coaching edge, big special teams advantage for the Patriots here. Look,

744
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 3: I think the Cowboys are a real contender in the NFC,

745
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 3: but this line is a bit inflative. I think the

746
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:25,240
Speaker 3: Patriots can control the clock here, control the line of scrimmage,

747
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 3: and there's just going to be some regression coming for

748
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:35,879
Speaker 3: this Cowboys defense that is just living on turnovers and

749
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 3: that's just not going to continue. So give me the

750
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,720
Speaker 3: Patriots as a home underdog, just like I did against

751
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 3: Tampa a couple of weeks ago, I would not go

752
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 3: to three. Try to find that four. I think the

753
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,879
Speaker 3: Patriots win. This came out right, Oh yeah, we got them. Yeah,

754
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 3: we'll see, we'll see who's got who.

755
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, it reminds me of a spot, it seems. I

756
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 2: guess it was longer ago than I thought because they

757
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 2: only played each other once every what four years, But

758
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:02,879
Speaker 2: there was a Cowboys game against the Jets with Dak

759
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 2: where they went on the road and you know, I

760
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:08,840
Speaker 2: was on the Jets. Yeah, how how was that? That

761
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 2: wasn't that was only like two years ago?

762
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 3: That?

763
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 2: How are they playing the NFC East again? Confused?

764
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 3: That was twenty nineteen Jets twenty twenty four to twenty two,

765
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 3: because it's because they're seventeen games.

766
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I'm like yeah, for a second, this made me.

767
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:25,480
Speaker 2: I was like, how did they Okay, it's just this game. Yeah,

768
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 2: that's what it is.

769
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 3: It's like, that's the Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Yeah, shattle yeattle that yeah,

770
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 3: that's the extra team.

771
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:33,800
Speaker 2: You know, this wasn't one that was like on my radar.

772
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 2: But like you've made a very convinced point here. It's

773
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,840
Speaker 2: just you know, Dallas coming off to three straight home games.

774
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 2: You know, I thought they may have come down to

775
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 2: earth last week, but when.

776
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 3: Giants lost their entire starting offense, Yeah, you literally had

777
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:46,800
Speaker 3: the entire backup.

778
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 2: Giants offense becauts nuts. Listen, Trevon Diggs continues to stand out,

779
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 2: but at some point he's not going to get an

780
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 2: interception in a game, Like he's not going to end

781
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 2: the year with seventeen interceptions. You know, Houston almost beat

782
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:00,919
Speaker 2: the Patriots last Week's a lot of people are gonna

783
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 2: kind of stay away just based on that. Yeah, this

784
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 2: is what I might have to get on. I really

785
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 2: hadn't considered it, even though I did have the line

786
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 2: projected a little bit lower than the market, so you know,

787
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 2: I would have went weaned Patriots regardless. But yeah, the

788
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 2: more I think about it, this is a good spot

789
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 2: to h to sell Dallas, all right. For my third

790
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 2: pick and the fifth overall pick of the week six

791
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, I am going with the Minnesota Vikings

792
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 2: minus one in Carolina, and listen, Minnesota has been a

793
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 2: roller coaster all year long. They let me down last week.

794
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 2: I feel like I've bet on them most weeks of

795
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 2: this podcast. Just after that after losing a Cincinnati, I

796
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 2: feel like they've just kind of been a little bit underrated.

797
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:47,600
Speaker 2: But this I think I still think this team is

798
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:51,040
Speaker 2: a little better than it's getting credit for this one

799
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 2: comes down to me though, just on simple looking at

800
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 2: the quarterback matchup, you know who they're facing. Both of

801
00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 2: these teams are gonna get pressure. The difference is her

802
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 2: cousin's gonna get the ball out. They might not get

803
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 2: big plays when he's under pressure, but he's gonna get

804
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:08,879
Speaker 2: the ball out. He's not gonna take you know, too

805
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 2: many negative plays, make too many turnover mistakes. He has

806
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:15,719
Speaker 2: got better receivers in totality, I think than Carolina. But

807
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 2: you look at Sam Donald in Minnesota's number two in

808
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:21,240
Speaker 2: Presure eight, Caroline's number one. Sam Donald's rating this season

809
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 2: drops from ninety seven point five to fifty nine point

810
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 2: six under pressure on seventy seven pressure dropbacks for Donald

811
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 2: this year, one touchdown, four picks, thirteen sacks in this game.

812
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 2: They might even take more sacks, you know, a higher

813
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 2: percentage of sacks than that. Because what's the narrative gonna

814
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 2: be for Donald? You know, coming off a game where

815
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 2: he took two games where he's thrown five picks combined

816
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 2: in those two games, it's gonna be eat the ball.

817
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 2: You know, a sack is better than a pick. If

818
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:52,360
Speaker 2: McCaffrey's back. It's gonna be dumping off to McCaffrey. You know,

819
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 2: they're gonna hand the ball off a lot. So I

820
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:56,919
Speaker 2: just you know, I don't think the Panthers are nearly

821
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 2: as good as their record. I don't think the Panthers

822
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 2: are you know, just think it was a matter of

823
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 2: playing the Giants, the Jets and the Houston Texans and

824
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 2: Davis is Mill's first start, and then you know, the

825
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 2: Panthers they have a lead on Philly. They can't close

826
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 2: the deal because Donald is reverting to old Darnald and

827
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 2: this is exactly who I thought he was against a

828
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 2: Mike Zimmer defense, as only having to cover by a point.

829
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 2: I'll take it, you know, I'll take it up to two.

830
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 2: I think Vikns win this game. I wouldn't take it

831
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 2: past two because they'll probably miss an extra point or

832
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 2: something silly like that. So I think, you know, sometimes

833
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 2: I say, hey, you can take it to three if

834
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 2: you have a good team, like a Baltimore good kicker.

835
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 2: But uh, Minnesota, it's been up and down here. But

836
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 2: Mike Zimmer too conservative. That's what everyone's saying in Minnesota.

837
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 2: And I probably agree, I think, but even Still, this

838
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 2: is a Mike Zimmer kind of spot. You know, Mike Zimmer,

839
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 2: for whatever reason, in the division is where he tends

840
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 2: to struggle preparation wise when it's an unfamiliar opponent or

841
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 2: just a less familiar opponent. So any game that's in

842
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 2: the conference but non divisional or in the AFC thirty

843
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 2: eight nineteen and in one against the spread in his career

844
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 2: sixty seven percent against non divisional opponents a normal rest.

845
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:06,879
Speaker 2: So as long as you know the Vikes don't have

846
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:08,320
Speaker 2: you know, are coming off a short week, or the

847
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 2: opponents an't coming off a buy or something like that,

848
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,240
Speaker 2: Mike Zimmers cover two thirds of the time in this spot.

849
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:15,279
Speaker 2: I think it's a low scoring, ugly game, but I

850
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 2: think the Vikings win because their offense will be better

851
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 2: under pressure than Carolinas.

852
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 3: I agree. I think you nailed the handicap here. By

853
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:26,760
Speaker 3: the way, McCaffrey's fifty to fifty to be back per

854
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 3: rule this afternoon if anyone's curious about that. But what

855
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,839
Speaker 3: the Panther stands? What happened year three and now you're

856
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:36,919
Speaker 3: going to the super Bowl. Now your home dogs, the Vikings. Yeah,

857
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 3: the Panthers came down came crashing back down to earth

858
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 3: as we expected. One of the easiest schedules you'll ever see.

859
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 3: They played two rookie quarterbacks making their first starts in

860
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 3: the first three games, and that a Saints team that

861
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 3: didn't have any coaches off a huge win. But yeah,

862
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 3: when I broke this game down, I saw one key anglayers.

863
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 3: These two teams are really similar in a lot of

864
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:59,400
Speaker 3: ways that they you know, their secondaries or if he

865
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 3: and especially if the Panthers have three of their top

866
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:07,839
Speaker 3: five played on their nickel packages are still out and

867
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 3: you know, but they can get a lot of pressure.

868
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 3: These two teams are top three and adjusted sacrate, their

869
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:15,919
Speaker 3: top five and third down defense Vembers defense is always

870
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 3: going to be let on third downs, and then their

871
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 3: offensive lines aren't great. So what is the difference here, Well,

872
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:29,320
Speaker 3: the Minister offensive line is top five and adjusted sacrate.

873
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:31,880
Speaker 3: Panthers are bottom ten A lot of times that speaks

874
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 3: more to the quarterback and Carolina twenty seventh and past

875
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 3: blocking efficiency vikings twentieth, so they're better there. Donald holding

876
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 3: onto the ball for an average of two point eight seconds,

877
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 3: Cousins two point five. So Cousins is going to be

878
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 3: number one, he's better than he's playing at a very

879
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:53,880
Speaker 3: high level. Noun. He's just better overall than Donald and

880
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 3: I agree he has better overall receivers. There's going to

881
00:42:57,880 --> 00:42:59,319
Speaker 3: be a lot of pressure. I've loved what I've seen

882
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 3: from the Vikings defensive front. You're gonna have to get

883
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 3: rid of the ball quick here. That is probably gonna

884
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 3: be the difference. Cousin's gonna have more success doing that.

885
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 3: If you want numbers here when throwing under two and

886
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 3: a half seconds, Cousins six touchdowns, zero interceptions, ninety percent

887
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:19,440
Speaker 3: adjusted completion percentage one hundred and eleven quarterback rating. Darnald

888
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 3: two touchdowns, three picks. His rating is seventy eight. So

889
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:28,960
Speaker 3: you can see the difference there. So I think that, yeah,

890
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 3: both teams should be able to generate some pressure, and

891
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 3: the quarterback that's going to be able to deal with

892
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:37,439
Speaker 3: that make more plays and fewer mistakes is Cousins, which

893
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 3: is ultimately what this game comes down.

894
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 2: To, if anyone's curious. So the reason this line shifted

895
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:46,919
Speaker 2: from I think the Panthers were at one point one

896
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 2: point favorite. Yeah, and it's not a big change, even

897
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:51,919
Speaker 2: though it seems jarring from a team to go from

898
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:53,879
Speaker 2: a favorite to an underdog. It's not a big change

899
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 2: because you're you're not always going to do you post

900
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 2: to pick them as a sportsbook, so it's really going

901
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:01,040
Speaker 2: from like one to one. It's not that big of

902
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 2: a deal. But if you're wondering why, Caesar Sportsbook reported

903
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 2: that they took a five hundred thousand dollars wager on

904
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 2: the Vikings money line at even money against the Panthers,

905
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,319
Speaker 2: So that's kind of what shifted the line. I toured

906
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:16,839
Speaker 2: the Vikings some big money early in the week.

907
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 3: Could be a casino player, you never know.

908
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 2: All right?

909
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:23,840
Speaker 3: Could all right? Said? I agree? I agree with your

910
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 3: for my third pick and the sixth overall pick of

911
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 3: the Sunday six pack, a lot of pressure here. I'm

912
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 3: going with the Baltimore my Baltimore Ravens minus three. I

913
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 3: bet ENGM at home against the Chargers. And why I

914
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 3: say a lot of pressures is my team. This is

915
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 3: the team that I've the highest against the spread percentage

916
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 3: betting on. People trust when I say bet them this year.

917
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 3: I bet the Ravens one time against the Chiefs. I

918
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 3: had the under in the Raiders, which I would bet

919
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:53,800
Speaker 3: a million times over I had the under in the Lions,

920
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 3: the under in the Broncos, and I didn't bet last week,

921
00:44:57,800 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 3: so I've had a good read on them this year.

922
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 3: One of them to lose in a way like they're

923
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 3: gone to the playoffs. But if they lost and then

924
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 3: you get it was a slam spot like Harball off

925
00:45:07,040 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 3: at loss at home against a four and one team,

926
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 3: just a little extra Harball is still good in those spots.

927
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:14,320
Speaker 3: But they came back to win. So because they're a

928
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:16,240
Speaker 3: little fatigue, it's a short week, it's something to consider.

929
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 3: I mean, LA does have to come across country. But

930
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:21,799
Speaker 3: this Chargers team, first of all, I have to just

931
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:25,760
Speaker 3: give Justin Herbert is incredible every sense. But this offense

932
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 3: has a major regression coming. I mean it is insane

933
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 3: what they're doing on third and fourth downs, the Charter's

934
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 3: third down offense. The third downs that they're converting like

935
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 3: these third and eight, it's third and ninees, third and tens.

936
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 3: They're zero point four to eighty five epa per play

937
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:45,320
Speaker 3: on third down success rate fifty six and a half percent.

938
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 3: The Ravens on third down, by the way, negative point

939
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 3: five to six EPA per play. That's dead last on

940
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 3: third downs success rate thirty three point three percent on

941
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 3: third downs dead last. Well, he said, okay, this is

942
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 3: the Chargers' offense a lot better than the Ravens. Well,

943
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:03,880
Speaker 3: if we look at early downs the Ravens offense, if

944
00:46:03,880 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 3: we remove garbage time number two in the NFL and

945
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:09,680
Speaker 3: ePaper play number three in success rate, what are the

946
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:14,759
Speaker 3: Chargers twenty third and twentieth. So, I mean this is

947
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:20,360
Speaker 3: a Chargers offense that is living on converting all of

948
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 3: these third downs, and justin Herbert is incredible. They cannot

949
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:27,840
Speaker 3: maintain this level of success on third downs. And I

950
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 3: didn't even get to the fourth down success Chargers on

951
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:37,319
Speaker 3: fourth down this year. If you remove the one fake

952
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 3: punt where they tried to fake punt on fourth and fifteen,

953
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 3: Drew's bizarre. They're eight for eight on third down on

954
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 3: fourth down, eight for eight on fourth down with a

955
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 3: bunch of there's like been Pi's, there's been holdings. The

956
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:56,520
Speaker 3: average yards to go six point two, eight for eight.

957
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 3: Their opponents all are three for eight, average yards to

958
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 3: go three point seventy five. So I mean it's just

959
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 3: every fourth down is going their way. The third downs

960
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:13,120
Speaker 3: are going their way. So look, another thing to keep

961
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 3: in mind here Ravens special teams. This is an enormous

962
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 3: special teams advantage, as big as you will find in

963
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 3: the NFL. You go by DVA, the Chargers are twenty ninth,

964
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 3: Ravens are second. But my ratings for special teams I

965
00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 3: spent a lot doing that. I've Ravens won by far,

966
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 3: in Chargers thirty second by far. The Chargers are using

967
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:35,440
Speaker 3: a kicker who couldn't make field goals in college, and Viscaya.

968
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 3: I don't know how he got on the roster. I

969
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 3: have no idea how he's on the roster. Yeah, but

970
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 3: they get a get a kick, get a field goal

971
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 3: kicker too. It's insane. He was a sixty percent kicker

972
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 3: in college, could even make extra points in college. It's crazy.

973
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 3: And another thing here is, look, the Ravens have been

974
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:56,640
Speaker 3: killing teams, throwing the ball on early downs, killing teams,

975
00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:00,800
Speaker 3: and everyone is just trying to stop the run all costs,

976
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 3: and Lamar Jackson is just shredding. I mean, just incredible

977
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,680
Speaker 3: how he's playing so far this year throwing the ball.

978
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:09,920
Speaker 3: He's just so much improved. And imagine, if you know,

979
00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 3: Hollywood Brown didn't have like four touchdown drops in one game.

980
00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:17,240
Speaker 3: But this is a game where the Ravens run offense

981
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 3: gets going. I think the Chargers kind of invite you

982
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 3: to run. They try to take away that defense. That's

983
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:23,719
Speaker 3: why I don't like the overear. You think, all right,

984
00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:25,120
Speaker 3: I think that both of these teams are going to

985
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:27,240
Speaker 3: score a lot. I think the Ravens actually gonna sustain

986
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:29,840
Speaker 3: drives finally running it, and then there's gonna be regression

987
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 3: on this Chargers offense. So you know, the Chargers are

988
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 3: thirty first DVA against the run, thirty first in line yards,

989
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 3: thirty first, and ten plus yard runs allowed. They're allowing

990
00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 3: five point six yards per rush. That's dead last in

991
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:45,719
Speaker 3: the NFL. They're twenty ninth in covering tight ends. Like

992
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 3: this is all the things you're gonna see this. I

993
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:51,920
Speaker 3: think this vintage Ravens offense. Outside of Joey Bosaid, look

994
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:56,160
Speaker 3: at this Chargers roster. It's very underwhelming in terms of

995
00:48:56,200 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 3: their defensive linemen and their linebackers. Kenneth Murray's also on

996
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 3: IR And another important piece here is Dashaun Elliott should

997
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 3: return for the Ravens. He's not an All Pro safety,

998
00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:10,879
Speaker 3: he's not a Pro bowler, but he makes a big

999
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 3: difference because the drop off is from him to Brandon Stevens,

1000
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:18,719
Speaker 3: who I like in the future. But this is a

1001
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 3: kid who had to start last week and he was

1002
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 3: lost out there and weak. Martindale's defense is one of

1003
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:27,719
Speaker 3: the most complicated in the NFL from a secondary perspective,

1004
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:31,319
Speaker 3: and Stevens as a kid that never played defensive back

1005
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:33,840
Speaker 3: until he got the SMU. He was running back in

1006
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:38,240
Speaker 3: high school, running back at UCLA, transferred to SMU and

1007
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:39,919
Speaker 3: the Ravens took him as a rookie and he played

1008
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,080
Speaker 3: corner and then they wanted the trans They wanted to

1009
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 3: move him to safety. Both of their safeties were oute

1010
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:46,640
Speaker 3: last week. Gino Stone was out too. They should all

1011
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:48,400
Speaker 3: be back, and they had started looking. He was lost

1012
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 3: in coverage last week. That will help against the Chargers.

1013
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:57,360
Speaker 3: You have Marlon Humphrey on one of the Chargers excellent receivers.

1014
00:49:57,440 --> 00:49:59,480
Speaker 3: The other one is a concern. But I think that

1015
00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:03,520
Speaker 3: there's some agression coming for this Chargers offense. They're getting

1016
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 3: a little bit too much love in the market. I

1017
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 3: think the Ravens should be able to control the clock.

1018
00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 3: I think that they should be able to get enough stops,

1019
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 3: and I think that's just this regression's coming for the

1020
00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 3: Chargers offense, and don't sleep on the special teams here.

1021
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 3: It's a massive, massive factor in this game. Look for

1022
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:23,319
Speaker 3: the two and a half. I just didn't come through

1023
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:25,080
Speaker 3: on the app yet, but there's a good chance Tucker

1024
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:26,800
Speaker 3: wins this on a field goal. It's gonna be closed.

1025
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:28,880
Speaker 3: I don't think the Ravens are blowing out the Chargers.

1026
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 3: And also the big backdoor risk if you're up ten,

1027
00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:33,880
Speaker 3: Ravens secondary is not as good as it's been and

1028
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:36,359
Speaker 3: still trying to figure itself out. So if I can't

1029
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 3: find the two and out, I'm probably gonna buy it

1030
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 3: to two and a half. I might throw my money on,

1031
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:41,560
Speaker 3: probably with something. But I'm waiting on that two and

1032
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:43,759
Speaker 3: a half and seeing how cheap I can get it.

1033
00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:46,400
Speaker 3: There's a ton of Chargers love in the market, so

1034
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:48,719
Speaker 3: that's why I'm holding out. I think that it could come.

1035
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:51,960
Speaker 3: I'm seeing on our app in some other places it's

1036
00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:54,320
Speaker 3: like ninety two percent of the bets or on the Chargers.

1037
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:57,799
Speaker 3: So take them three year, but wait to see if

1038
00:50:57,800 --> 00:50:58,760
Speaker 3: you can get under three.

1039
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:02,440
Speaker 2: I would lush is on now. We only have data

1040
00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 2: from going back to twenty fifteen in terms of public

1041
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:08,920
Speaker 2: betting data. But over that span when the Ravens are

1042
00:51:08,920 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 2: getting forty percent or less of the spread tickets, Harbaugh

1043
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 2: twenty one fourteen and one sixty percent against the spread,

1044
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:21,959
Speaker 2: covering by an average of five point two points per game.

1045
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:25,640
Speaker 2: So it's been it's been a profitable spot to look

1046
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:27,400
Speaker 2: for the Ravens here when when the public's on the

1047
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:31,520
Speaker 2: other side. So I like that one as well. But yeah,

1048
00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:33,319
Speaker 2: definitely want to two and a half year because I

1049
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:34,520
Speaker 2: got a lot I do have a lot of respect

1050
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:36,080
Speaker 2: for Herbert and it's charge of team. They just never

1051
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 2: seem out of a game, all right. So that was

1052
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 2: our week six Sunday six pack presented by Athletic Brewing Company.

1053
00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:48,799
Speaker 2: To recap, Stuck is going with Cleveland minus three against

1054
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:53,440
Speaker 2: the Cardinals, the Patriots plus three and a half hosting

1055
00:51:53,520 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 2: the Cowboys, and the Ravens minus three hosting the Darling

1056
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 2: La Chargers. I am going with the Pittsburgh Steelers minus

1057
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:06,400
Speaker 2: four and a half at home against Gino Smith and Seattle,

1058
00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:09,760
Speaker 2: the Chicago Bears plus four and a half at home

1059
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:13,680
Speaker 2: against the Pack, and the Vikings minus one on the

1060
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:18,920
Speaker 2: road against the Carolina Panthers. That concludes Our Week six

1061
00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:23,279
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack presented by Athletic Brewing Company, whose innovative

1062
00:52:23,320 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 2: process allows them to brew great taste in craft beer

1063
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:31,280
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1064
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:34,400
Speaker 2: and more. They offer a full selection of craft brews

1065
00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:38,880
Speaker 2: starting at only fifty calories. With two custom breweries in

1066
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:42,560
Speaker 2: Connecticut and California. They have created a lineup of styles

1067
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1068
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1069
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1070
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1071
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1072
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:06,759
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1073
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1074
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Speaker 2: order with promo code Action ten. That's act Io n

1075
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 2: one zero. Cheers. All right, Stuck, you know what time

1076
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:25,359
Speaker 2: it is. It's time for the Coaches pep Talk. Yeah,

1077
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 2: we just renamed the segment the Urban Meyer pep Talk

1078
00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:32,520
Speaker 2: because it's going to urban and Stuck said, uh, it's

1079
00:53:32,560 --> 00:53:35,880
Speaker 2: coming to you. Via a clip from the nineteen seventy

1080
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 2: six Film Network dedicated to Urban Meyer.

1081
00:53:40,200 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 4: I don't have to tell you things are bad. Everybody

1082
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 4: knows things are bad because nobody anywhere seems to know

1083
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:46,960
Speaker 4: what to do, and there's no end to it. It's

1084
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:49,239
Speaker 4: like everything everywhere is going crazy and all we say

1085
00:53:49,280 --> 00:53:50,440
Speaker 4: is just leave us alone.

1086
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 3: Well, I'm not good to leave you alone. I want

1087
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 3: you to get maded.

1088
00:53:53,840 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 2: You gotta say I'm a human being. God, damn it,

1089
00:53:57,040 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 2: my life, that's value.

1090
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 4: I want you to get up now and go to

1091
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:05,319
Speaker 4: the window, open it and stick your head out and

1092
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:09,960
Speaker 4: yell I don't take this anymore.

1093
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:13,440
Speaker 2: It stuck. Urban is one and four against the spread.

1094
00:54:13,480 --> 00:54:17,440
Speaker 2: He is zero and five straight up? Like, what over under?

1095
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 2: How many against the spread winds do the Jags end

1096
00:54:21,040 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 2: up with this year? I'll set the line at six

1097
00:54:24,200 --> 00:54:28,839
Speaker 2: and a half under. Are you coming around? You're coming around.

1098
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 2: I'm proud of you. I'm proud of you.

1099
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:34,359
Speaker 3: I think they'll finish six and ten eleven. Oh yeah,

1100
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:37,040
Speaker 3: I forgot the seve. That's a pretty good line. Yeah,

1101
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 3: it'll come down to like the last week, on who

1102
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:40,400
Speaker 3: they're playing and if they care or not.

1103
00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I go under two obviously, you know against

1104
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 2: the spread record in just a fatigue is absent of

1105
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 2: anything else, is not gonna be super predictive. But I

1106
00:54:50,040 --> 00:54:51,920
Speaker 2: mean the more I see at Urban Mayer, I mean,

1107
00:54:51,920 --> 00:54:53,719
Speaker 2: if it wasn't for John Gruden, we'd still be talking

1108
00:54:53,719 --> 00:54:55,959
Speaker 2: about Urban Meyer. So you got you got a crazy

1109
00:54:56,000 --> 00:55:01,040
Speaker 2: assist there. But I digress. Let's get into out favorite

1110
00:55:01,040 --> 00:55:02,160
Speaker 2: total of the week.

1111
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:05,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, for my favorite total of the week, I'm going

1112
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:10,480
Speaker 3: with a Bengals Lions under forty seven and a half

1113
00:55:10,520 --> 00:55:14,560
Speaker 3: at Ben MGM, the official odds provider of The Action Podcast.

1114
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:18,240
Speaker 3: That I mean. You look at the Lions offense, it's

1115
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:21,440
Speaker 3: I mean, now rag Now their center is out for

1116
00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 3: the year. Decker just got decinated to come back wro fire.

1117
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 3: I don't think he's still gonna play. So the offensive line,

1118
00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:30,400
Speaker 3: their strength is just it's not it's no longer a strength.

1119
00:55:30,880 --> 00:55:33,760
Speaker 3: Their wide receiver group, which was very underwhelming, is now

1120
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:37,520
Speaker 3: now banged up. They don't have Williams, they just lost Cephas.

1121
00:55:38,080 --> 00:55:41,759
Speaker 3: It's a really bad group. And now on top of that,

1122
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:45,319
Speaker 3: Dan Campbell, who I love like, I actually really love him.

1123
00:55:45,400 --> 00:55:47,439
Speaker 3: He's such a genuine I want him the winning game.

1124
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:49,960
Speaker 3: He came out and he said because GoF just keeps

1125
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 3: turning the ball over. So he came out this week

1126
00:55:52,239 --> 00:55:54,319
Speaker 3: and he said, look, we're gonna have to trim this

1127
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:57,560
Speaker 3: playbook down. We're gonna have to simplify it for golf

1128
00:55:57,600 --> 00:56:01,280
Speaker 3: and make everything easier to limit these Well, that screams

1129
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:02,839
Speaker 3: that Detroit's going to come out here and just run

1130
00:56:02,880 --> 00:56:05,080
Speaker 3: the ball all day, which is not a good idea

1131
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:08,200
Speaker 3: against since he use D's fourth in line yards, they're

1132
00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:10,759
Speaker 3: fourth and stuff rate, they're fourth and EPA against the run,

1133
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:14,840
Speaker 3: their fifth in rushed success rate, So it's just a

1134
00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:17,879
Speaker 3: nightmare snary. He's actually playing pretty well. These are also

1135
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:20,560
Speaker 3: two very slow teams Bengals, I think they are the

1136
00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:23,839
Speaker 3: slowest team in the NFL, and neutral situations he goes

1137
00:56:23,880 --> 00:56:28,360
Speaker 3: so slow. Detroit's obviously doesn't play fast unless you know

1138
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:31,680
Speaker 3: they're down by a lot, and I think they're going

1139
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,560
Speaker 3: to go slow. And based on what Campbell said here,

1140
00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:37,800
Speaker 3: this is also a really bad spot, you know, like

1141
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 3: that Raven spot when I said the Raven's going to

1142
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:40,920
Speaker 3: come out with Detroit and it's just going to be

1143
00:56:41,719 --> 00:56:44,719
Speaker 3: just weird. And like since he just played Green Bay

1144
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:47,319
Speaker 3: and lost that heartbreaker, now you go to win list

1145
00:56:47,360 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 3: Detroit and you have the Ravens on deck, like this

1146
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 3: is flat spot City and the since the offense is

1147
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:57,160
Speaker 3: kind of broken, and I think it's all because, I mean,

1148
00:56:57,160 --> 00:57:01,000
Speaker 3: they're twenty first at EPA per play and they have

1149
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:03,080
Speaker 3: all this talent and Barrow a lot of it's their

1150
00:57:03,080 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 3: offensive line is not good at all. The lines are

1151
00:57:06,520 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 3: actually scheming up some pressure. They're top five and pressure

1152
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 3: rate and adjusted Zach Ray. So the defensive line isn't

1153
00:57:12,680 --> 00:57:15,000
Speaker 3: playing bad. They have a couple of rookies that I like,

1154
00:57:15,440 --> 00:57:18,520
Speaker 3: it's scary that Tracy Walker is the only competent defensive

1155
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:20,880
Speaker 3: back that they have. I don't know how Will Harris

1156
00:57:20,960 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 3: is starting its safety still in the NFL. But the

1157
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:28,680
Speaker 3: Bengals are just They're the definition of a talented but

1158
00:57:28,760 --> 00:57:32,160
Speaker 3: negative TV offense because of Zach Taylor, Like he just

1159
00:57:32,160 --> 00:57:34,480
Speaker 3: the play calling is bad and they go so slow

1160
00:57:34,520 --> 00:57:36,040
Speaker 3: and then you watch Borrow in like a two minute

1161
00:57:36,120 --> 00:57:37,560
Speaker 3: drove and they need to score and he like they'll

1162
00:57:37,600 --> 00:57:41,200
Speaker 3: go eighty yards and score, and just the chemistry they

1163
00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 3: has a chase, but they they I hate the play

1164
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:47,560
Speaker 3: calling on this team. City's also scoring eighty percent touchdowns

1165
00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:50,520
Speaker 3: of the red zone. Detroit's actually like sixty six percent

1166
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 3: for that offense, which is top twelve, and Detroit's allowing

1167
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 3: teams to score touchdowns eighty five percent, the highest you'll

1168
00:57:58,680 --> 00:58:00,880
Speaker 3: ever see in the NFL is like seven twenty seventy

1169
00:58:00,920 --> 00:58:04,480
Speaker 3: two seventy three for a year, kind of on both sides.

1170
00:58:04,480 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 3: So I know that the lines are bad, but there

1171
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:09,960
Speaker 3: might be some regression coming there. Also, Detroit's defense is

1172
00:58:10,000 --> 00:58:12,520
Speaker 3: second in success right on third downs. I don't know how,

1173
00:58:12,920 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 3: so there could be some regression coming there. But I

1174
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:17,760
Speaker 3: think just think these are two slow teams. Detroit is,

1175
00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:20,280
Speaker 3: from what I've heard, is going to go really basic here,

1176
00:58:20,760 --> 00:58:22,800
Speaker 3: and I think the Bengals are going to be flat

1177
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:26,160
Speaker 3: and Detroit's just competing like they're actually trying. So I

1178
00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:28,360
Speaker 3: think that's gonna show up on the defense end. They're

1179
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:31,880
Speaker 3: just out of players on offense, and the Sinci defense

1180
00:58:31,960 --> 00:58:34,400
Speaker 3: is playing better than people think. I don't think that

1181
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:36,800
Speaker 3: the market is caught up to these unders, but Cincy

1182
00:58:37,280 --> 00:58:38,800
Speaker 3: because they look at this team and they're like, oh,

1183
00:58:38,800 --> 00:58:41,040
Speaker 3: it's Burrow and a bunch of receivers. Bengals have hit

1184
00:58:41,080 --> 00:58:44,840
Speaker 3: four straight unders. Lines have hit three straight unders, so

1185
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:48,120
Speaker 3: that might make you pause and you say oh they're due.

1186
00:58:48,160 --> 00:58:50,120
Speaker 3: Don't ever do that. But they've had a bunch of

1187
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:51,720
Speaker 3: unders in a row, both these teams that they're due

1188
00:58:51,760 --> 00:58:55,040
Speaker 3: for and over. Well, just to ease your mind, this

1189
00:58:55,200 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 3: game obviously can still go over. But two teams that

1190
00:58:57,640 --> 00:59:01,720
Speaker 3: meet each having at least streaks of three straight unders

1191
00:59:02,240 --> 00:59:04,360
Speaker 3: each the last three week, ask each of their last

1192
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:07,200
Speaker 3: three games have all gone under or more at least

1193
00:59:07,200 --> 00:59:09,840
Speaker 3: three that game when they meet, the under has gone

1194
00:59:09,880 --> 00:59:13,240
Speaker 3: thirty six twenty two and one to the under sixty

1195
00:59:13,280 --> 00:59:17,080
Speaker 3: two point one percent, going under by almost three points

1196
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:17,520
Speaker 3: per game.

1197
00:59:17,880 --> 00:59:18,520
Speaker 2: It doesn't mean I.

1198
00:59:18,520 --> 00:59:20,160
Speaker 3: Mean, that doesn't mean anything. I don't know. I'd have

1199
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:22,640
Speaker 3: to dig into if there's any meaning to that. But

1200
00:59:22,680 --> 00:59:25,040
Speaker 3: it's just easier mind just because it's they've these teams

1201
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:26,600
Speaker 3: have hit unders last year. If weeks doesn't mean they

1202
00:59:26,600 --> 00:59:29,120
Speaker 3: can't do under. Yeah, I show value in this number.

1203
00:59:29,400 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 3: I think the Bengal's gonna be flat and the stays

1204
00:59:32,360 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 3: under forty seven and a half. What do you got?

1205
00:59:34,560 --> 00:59:35,840
Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna go with this one, but then

1206
00:59:35,880 --> 00:59:38,760
Speaker 2: you stole it. So there's gonna be another play I

1207
00:59:38,760 --> 00:59:40,760
Speaker 2: have in this game that we'll talk about in a moment.

1208
00:59:41,040 --> 00:59:43,920
Speaker 2: But I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings and the Carolina

1209
00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:47,160
Speaker 2: Panthers under forty six at bet MGM. The reason I'm

1210
00:59:47,160 --> 00:59:50,320
Speaker 2: doing it mentioned it earlier, top two teams in the

1211
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:54,480
Speaker 2: NFL in pressure rate. Also, you have two teams that

1212
00:59:54,520 --> 00:59:57,320
Speaker 2: are outside the top twenty in situation neutral pace, with

1213
00:59:57,520 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 2: Minnesota being twenty the fifth and the Panthers twenty. First,

1214
01:00:03,200 --> 01:00:06,320
Speaker 2: I mentioned Sam Donald, and really the biggest concern I

1215
01:00:06,360 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 2: have if there is any about this under is you know,

1216
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:10,800
Speaker 2: maybe Sam Donald throws a pick six or something like that.

1217
01:00:10,840 --> 01:00:13,960
Speaker 2: But uh, you know, I mentioned donald thirteen sacks on

1218
01:00:14,040 --> 01:00:18,040
Speaker 2: seventy seven dropbacks under pressure. That is the best thing

1219
01:00:19,120 --> 01:00:21,160
Speaker 2: that you can usually get for an under his sacks

1220
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:23,560
Speaker 2: they kill drives. It's kind of like a ten yard penalty,

1221
01:00:23,560 --> 01:00:26,080
Speaker 2: a fifty yard penalty on the offense, you know, something

1222
01:00:26,080 --> 01:00:28,400
Speaker 2: like that. This akin to that because you lose it

1223
01:00:28,440 --> 01:00:30,080
Speaker 2: down on a penancy at we used to keep it

1224
01:00:30,120 --> 01:00:33,760
Speaker 2: down unless it's grounding, So sacks are great. And then

1225
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:35,920
Speaker 2: on the other side, you know, I mentioned I like

1226
01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:38,080
Speaker 2: the Vikings because I think Cousins is Gonna is, you know,

1227
01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:42,400
Speaker 2: the better quarterback under pressure. But he's doing something really

1228
01:00:42,440 --> 01:00:47,160
Speaker 2: odd that you don't see a lot from quarterbacks under pressure.

1229
01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:51,600
Speaker 2: His average depth of target actually goes down when he's pressured,

1230
01:00:51,640 --> 01:00:55,000
Speaker 2: and it goes down when he's blitzed. Now, usually what

1231
01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:58,480
Speaker 2: happens is defense brings extra pressure. You have to send God,

1232
01:00:58,520 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 2: you know, you're one on one down the seat. You

1233
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:01,880
Speaker 2: just kind of have to throw it up. Sometimes good

1234
01:01:01,880 --> 01:01:04,880
Speaker 2: things happen, sometimes bad things happen. That's why performance under

1235
01:01:04,880 --> 01:01:07,120
Speaker 2: pressure takes a little longer, you know, to get predictive

1236
01:01:07,240 --> 01:01:10,560
Speaker 2: than just flight out stats on their own from a

1237
01:01:10,600 --> 01:01:14,520
Speaker 2: clean pocket. But Cousins, he's just throwing these hot reads

1238
01:01:14,760 --> 01:01:17,080
Speaker 2: that are you know, very short, get the ball out

1239
01:01:17,160 --> 01:01:20,440
Speaker 2: quick hot reads. So I think the Vikings, you know,

1240
01:01:21,160 --> 01:01:22,800
Speaker 2: they're gonna kind of eat the ball if they get

1241
01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:25,000
Speaker 2: under too much pressure there. Mike Zimmer is always going

1242
01:01:25,040 --> 01:01:27,480
Speaker 2: to be happy to play a conservative and punt. You know,

1243
01:01:27,520 --> 01:01:29,680
Speaker 2: we saw them play a little too conservative last week.

1244
01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:32,480
Speaker 2: But this is this is this kind of game where

1245
01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:34,520
Speaker 2: you know, both of these teams just getting a lot

1246
01:01:34,560 --> 01:01:37,160
Speaker 2: of pressure. You might this is one of those quick

1247
01:01:37,240 --> 01:01:39,760
Speaker 2: corner TV games where you might have red zone on

1248
01:01:40,120 --> 01:01:42,439
Speaker 2: and this it could be like forty minutes go by

1249
01:01:42,680 --> 01:01:44,880
Speaker 2: and we don't get an update from this game just

1250
01:01:44,880 --> 01:01:47,200
Speaker 2: because of how these teams are are getting pressure. So

1251
01:01:47,760 --> 01:01:50,640
Speaker 2: Mike Zimmer again these and one of the reasons that

1252
01:01:50,680 --> 01:01:53,560
Speaker 2: they do so well in these non divisional games because

1253
01:01:53,600 --> 01:01:56,840
Speaker 2: usually teams have low scoring you know, like uh, you know,

1254
01:01:57,240 --> 01:01:59,560
Speaker 2: games in their division. Mike Zimmer just in the in

1255
01:01:59,600 --> 01:02:02,240
Speaker 2: the NFE period fifty one to thirty six to the

1256
01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:05,440
Speaker 2: under usually gets his defense to play well. The trend

1257
01:02:05,440 --> 01:02:08,000
Speaker 2: that I was talking about and both the Cincinnati game

1258
01:02:08,000 --> 01:02:10,040
Speaker 2: because they're also a very slow paced team them in

1259
01:02:10,080 --> 01:02:14,200
Speaker 2: Detroit when the total opens at forty seven or forty

1260
01:02:14,200 --> 01:02:17,439
Speaker 2: seven and a half, because remember the public's betting over,

1261
01:02:17,600 --> 01:02:20,160
Speaker 2: so forty seven forty seven and a half, where but

1262
01:02:20,240 --> 01:02:22,120
Speaker 2: the book doesn't just go to the flat out forty

1263
01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:25,640
Speaker 2: eight or something higher and it goes down or stays

1264
01:02:25,640 --> 01:02:27,680
Speaker 2: the same, so it goes down up to four and

1265
01:02:27,720 --> 01:02:29,480
Speaker 2: a half points. If it goes any pass four and

1266
01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:31,320
Speaker 2: down more than that, you're just losing the value. But

1267
01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:33,640
Speaker 2: if it just goes down up to four and a half,

1268
01:02:33,800 --> 01:02:35,760
Speaker 2: opens at forty seven or forty seven and a half,

1269
01:02:35,920 --> 01:02:39,280
Speaker 2: seventy twenty six and one is the under seventy three

1270
01:02:39,360 --> 01:02:41,960
Speaker 2: percent since two thousand and three, it's a tell. It's

1271
01:02:41,960 --> 01:02:43,560
Speaker 2: just one of those. It's just one of those market

1272
01:02:43,560 --> 01:02:45,760
Speaker 2: tells where the books are saying, this is probably a

1273
01:02:45,800 --> 01:02:48,160
Speaker 2: forty five that we know public is going to bet

1274
01:02:48,240 --> 01:02:50,000
Speaker 2: the under. We're kind of getting in, you know, in

1275
01:02:50,120 --> 01:02:52,640
Speaker 2: some dead zones as far as key numbers. It's just

1276
01:02:52,720 --> 01:02:55,200
Speaker 2: one of those spots where you want to generally look

1277
01:02:55,720 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 2: to bet the unders. That's why, you know, both of

1278
01:02:57,280 --> 01:02:59,160
Speaker 2: these games opened at forty seven and a half that

1279
01:02:58,960 --> 01:03:01,600
Speaker 2: we that we've quoted, so that's why I'm going with them.

1280
01:03:01,920 --> 01:03:03,720
Speaker 2: And the third under I like is that Bears and

1281
01:03:03,760 --> 01:03:07,000
Speaker 2: Packers one, but it's already down to forty five. And

1282
01:03:07,040 --> 01:03:08,760
Speaker 2: because I like the Bears to win, you know, maybe

1283
01:03:08,800 --> 01:03:11,240
Speaker 2: they get a I'm hoping they get like a you know,

1284
01:03:11,640 --> 01:03:13,640
Speaker 2: scoring defense or something. I think it's at just a

1285
01:03:13,680 --> 01:03:17,880
Speaker 2: little less margin for hour, so like the under forty

1286
01:03:17,920 --> 01:03:19,560
Speaker 2: six Panthers Vikings.

1287
01:03:21,560 --> 01:03:25,800
Speaker 5: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by betmgm, and

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01:03:25,880 --> 01:03:29,240
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Speaker 5: located in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada,

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Speaker 5: Indiana one eight hundred two seven zero seven to one

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Speaker 5: in Nevada. Thanks so much for listening. Let's get back

1318
01:04:55,520 --> 01:04:55,760
Speaker 5: to the.

1319
01:04:55,720 --> 01:05:00,680
Speaker 2: Show now, Let's get into our favorite teaser a week

1320
01:05:00,760 --> 01:05:01,240
Speaker 2: number six.

1321
01:05:02,480 --> 01:05:14,800
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1322
01:05:07,120 --> 01:05:14,160
Speaker 4: Don't tease me please.

1323
01:05:18,840 --> 01:05:19,200
Speaker 3: All right?

1324
01:05:19,600 --> 01:05:23,640
Speaker 2: For those who are unfamiliar with teasers, it's when you

1325
01:05:23,680 --> 01:05:26,320
Speaker 2: combine two or more bets you get a certain allotment

1326
01:05:26,400 --> 01:05:29,760
Speaker 2: of points against the spread on each bet. Usually it's

1327
01:05:29,760 --> 01:05:32,600
Speaker 2: a six point teaser, which means you get six extra

1328
01:05:32,600 --> 01:05:35,360
Speaker 2: points whether you're betting favorites or underdog stuck. Where are

1329
01:05:35,360 --> 01:05:38,160
Speaker 2: you going with your teasers? Week six?

1330
01:05:38,920 --> 01:05:42,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's an awful teaser week. Not many fit the

1331
01:05:42,480 --> 01:05:46,400
Speaker 3: mold and qualify for what I'm looking for. The one

1332
01:05:46,440 --> 01:05:49,280
Speaker 3: teaser that I would play that I'm looking at that

1333
01:05:49,360 --> 01:05:52,960
Speaker 3: I'll give out here is one piece would be the

1334
01:05:53,120 --> 01:05:56,400
Speaker 3: Cults Now at BENMGM. It's nine and a half. You

1335
01:05:56,440 --> 01:05:58,360
Speaker 3: want to try and find it and see if that

1336
01:05:58,400 --> 01:06:00,240
Speaker 3: comes down to an eight and a half, you will

1337
01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:02,840
Speaker 3: really want to be able to tease that below three

1338
01:06:03,120 --> 01:06:06,400
Speaker 3: or to three. If you can get like tie, this

1339
01:06:06,560 --> 01:06:08,000
Speaker 3: might be a chance that you can get like a

1340
01:06:08,120 --> 01:06:10,920
Speaker 3: seven point teaser at minus one thirty. This is one

1341
01:06:10,960 --> 01:06:12,640
Speaker 3: of the times that it would be worth it because

1342
01:06:12,680 --> 01:06:15,120
Speaker 3: you can get below that field goal. It's a bad

1343
01:06:15,120 --> 01:06:17,200
Speaker 3: spot with the Colts. You know, they came off that

1344
01:06:17,200 --> 01:06:20,280
Speaker 3: Monday night heartbreaking aust in a short week, but I

1345
01:06:20,320 --> 01:06:22,840
Speaker 3: still think that they'll win this game. And you're crossing

1346
01:06:22,840 --> 01:06:24,400
Speaker 3: a lot of key numbers here. The Texans are the

1347
01:06:24,400 --> 01:06:27,160
Speaker 3: worst rushing team the NFL by far, Colts top three

1348
01:06:27,240 --> 01:06:29,880
Speaker 3: run defense, and the question becomes can Davis Mills take

1349
01:06:29,880 --> 01:06:31,920
Speaker 3: advantage of a beat up Colts secutor to win this

1350
01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:34,800
Speaker 3: game on the road. The Colts aren't getting any pressure,

1351
01:06:35,040 --> 01:06:37,760
Speaker 3: but I doubt it. Winz did looked a little better

1352
01:06:37,840 --> 01:06:40,320
Speaker 3: last week. I could see this game being closer than

1353
01:06:40,320 --> 01:06:43,800
Speaker 3: people think, but I'll take the Colts teasing them down

1354
01:06:44,120 --> 01:06:46,960
Speaker 3: and the only other one that I could see the

1355
01:06:47,120 --> 01:06:51,160
Speaker 3: Raiders teasing them up from three and a half up

1356
01:06:51,160 --> 01:06:53,360
Speaker 3: to nine and a half. I think this is close

1357
01:06:53,400 --> 01:06:56,480
Speaker 3: to a field goal spread uncertainty with what's going on

1358
01:06:56,520 --> 01:06:58,640
Speaker 3: with Gruden, Like, how does the locker room react, what

1359
01:06:58,680 --> 01:07:02,120
Speaker 3: does the play call look like? Is they're chaos this week?

1360
01:07:02,480 --> 01:07:05,440
Speaker 3: That probably would. I just don't know how to predict

1361
01:07:05,480 --> 01:07:08,160
Speaker 3: all that for this week. And the Raiders always play

1362
01:07:08,280 --> 01:07:10,360
Speaker 3: up and down of their every opponent they play up

1363
01:07:10,360 --> 01:07:12,200
Speaker 3: and down to So this is a big game. I

1364
01:07:12,240 --> 01:07:14,840
Speaker 3: assume it's gonna be close, and it's a low total.

1365
01:07:15,280 --> 01:07:16,960
Speaker 3: So I think that you know, teasing this from three

1366
01:07:17,000 --> 01:07:18,120
Speaker 3: and a half up to nine and a half, that

1367
01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:20,320
Speaker 3: there's some value there. So those are the two that

1368
01:07:21,440 --> 01:07:24,080
Speaker 3: I would go with. And then obviously, again, if you

1369
01:07:24,080 --> 01:07:26,360
Speaker 3: do a two teams seven point teaser and you can

1370
01:07:26,400 --> 01:07:28,920
Speaker 3: find minus one thirty, this would be the time to

1371
01:07:28,920 --> 01:07:31,520
Speaker 3: do it because then you can get the Raiders over

1372
01:07:31,640 --> 01:07:35,480
Speaker 3: ten and then you can get the Colts under three. Yeah.

1373
01:07:35,800 --> 01:07:38,000
Speaker 2: I agree, it's a tough teaser week. I don't mind

1374
01:07:38,000 --> 01:07:40,439
Speaker 2: those plays at all. I am a little nervous about

1375
01:07:40,440 --> 01:07:43,360
Speaker 2: the Colts thinking to play in Houston. If it gets

1376
01:07:43,400 --> 01:07:46,960
Speaker 2: to ten ten and a half, I definitely consider it.

1377
01:07:47,000 --> 01:07:50,120
Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't hate the tease at all. I'm

1378
01:07:50,200 --> 01:07:52,040
Speaker 2: kind of I'm gonna go with two teams that I

1379
01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:55,640
Speaker 2: think are gonna win, just maybe not by as much

1380
01:07:55,680 --> 01:07:58,280
Speaker 2: as people think, or I don't link the line as

1381
01:07:58,320 --> 01:08:00,680
Speaker 2: high as the market I should say. And that's Tampa

1382
01:08:00,720 --> 01:08:02,919
Speaker 2: Bay on Thursday night he's them from seven to one,

1383
01:08:03,480 --> 01:08:07,560
Speaker 2: and then Kansas City on Sunday in Washington teas them

1384
01:08:07,560 --> 01:08:09,600
Speaker 2: from seven to one. I don't think Kansas City is

1385
01:08:09,600 --> 01:08:11,600
Speaker 2: going to come off a you know, big loss in

1386
01:08:11,640 --> 01:08:14,160
Speaker 2: a primetime spot and then go on the road to

1387
01:08:14,280 --> 01:08:17,760
Speaker 2: Washington and lose it again. I think this Washington team

1388
01:08:17,840 --> 01:08:21,120
Speaker 2: is out of sorts. They're banged up on offense. You know,

1389
01:08:21,160 --> 01:08:25,600
Speaker 2: they still haven't gotten a consistent guy opposite of McLaurin,

1390
01:08:25,720 --> 01:08:28,679
Speaker 2: Dynamic Brown. He's looks like he could come back this week,

1391
01:08:28,720 --> 01:08:31,120
Speaker 2: but it's still been a struggle Heineck. He's still been

1392
01:08:31,120 --> 01:08:33,000
Speaker 2: a one read guy. I think there'll be a lot

1393
01:08:33,000 --> 01:08:34,360
Speaker 2: of points in this game, but that just gives the

1394
01:08:34,439 --> 01:08:37,200
Speaker 2: Chiefs more opportunities to kind of blow it open. I

1395
01:08:37,240 --> 01:08:39,160
Speaker 2: think the Chiefs will the only reason I think this

1396
01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:41,400
Speaker 2: game could be close. You know, Kansas City's number one

1397
01:08:41,400 --> 01:08:43,920
Speaker 2: on offense, Washington's twenty eight on defense. They're really bad

1398
01:08:44,200 --> 01:08:46,640
Speaker 2: against the past, but Washington is still top ten in

1399
01:08:46,680 --> 01:08:52,280
Speaker 2: pressure rate and Mahomes has been uncharacteristically shaky against pressure

1400
01:08:52,280 --> 01:08:54,680
Speaker 2: this year. He's just kind of taking taking making some

1401
01:08:54,720 --> 01:08:57,600
Speaker 2: swappy throws. Now, maybe that changes over the course of

1402
01:08:57,640 --> 01:08:59,200
Speaker 2: the season, but that's the only reason.

1403
01:08:59,240 --> 01:09:02,200
Speaker 3: I'll it's just a game that Washington gets home, like

1404
01:09:02,680 --> 01:09:05,080
Speaker 3: you know, they start to get home because they're on paper.

1405
01:09:05,439 --> 01:09:07,120
Speaker 3: If they could just figure out their coverage, they could

1406
01:09:07,200 --> 01:09:09,920
Speaker 3: drop two safeties and they have the defensive line that

1407
01:09:09,960 --> 01:09:13,599
Speaker 3: can get natural pressure, and that's how you can beat

1408
01:09:13,680 --> 01:09:16,080
Speaker 3: Mahomes and the Chiefs. I'm just worried. Can the Chiefs

1409
01:09:16,080 --> 01:09:20,759
Speaker 3: get stops? But yeah, there are some. Gibson didn't practice today,

1410
01:09:20,880 --> 01:09:25,679
Speaker 3: Samuel didn't practice, Sims didn't practice. More importantly, Samuels is out.

1411
01:09:26,040 --> 01:09:26,840
Speaker 3: Is he done for the year?

1412
01:09:27,160 --> 01:09:28,960
Speaker 2: Not for the year, but he's not playing this week.

1413
01:09:29,280 --> 01:09:32,519
Speaker 3: And then more importantly, Sheriff and Cosy on the right

1414
01:09:32,560 --> 01:09:34,800
Speaker 3: side of their offensive line didn't practice. And that's huge.

1415
01:09:34,840 --> 01:09:36,640
Speaker 3: They've been great. I mean, if you look at some

1416
01:09:36,720 --> 01:09:40,320
Speaker 3: of the past protection stats for Washington, I mean, they've

1417
01:09:40,320 --> 01:09:42,559
Speaker 3: been phenomenal to that right side of the offensive lot.

1418
01:09:42,680 --> 01:09:46,400
Speaker 3: That's really gonna hurt this offense. But I would you

1419
01:09:46,400 --> 01:09:48,080
Speaker 3: would have to think that the Chiefs win this game.

1420
01:09:48,160 --> 01:09:50,839
Speaker 3: They don't. They're in deep, deep trouble.

1421
01:09:51,600 --> 01:09:53,759
Speaker 2: I mean, Washington can't cover. Like that's really the issue.

1422
01:09:53,960 --> 01:09:57,680
Speaker 2: Just Washington can't cover. So mahomes who might make a

1423
01:09:57,760 --> 01:09:59,960
Speaker 2: you might throw another pick. He might you know, maybe

1424
01:10:00,000 --> 01:10:02,679
Speaker 2: there's a bad driver to that ends because of pressure

1425
01:10:03,000 --> 01:10:05,320
Speaker 2: and a sack. But the end of the day, you're

1426
01:10:05,320 --> 01:10:07,080
Speaker 2: talking about a defense that gave up four touchdowns to

1427
01:10:07,120 --> 01:10:09,840
Speaker 2: Jamis Winston on a game where he still completed fifteen

1428
01:10:09,840 --> 01:10:12,679
Speaker 2: out of thirty. I mean, this is just this defense

1429
01:10:12,760 --> 01:10:14,800
Speaker 2: is in shambles on the back, on the back end

1430
01:10:15,000 --> 01:10:16,920
Speaker 2: at for as good as their front, you know, their

1431
01:10:17,000 --> 01:10:20,000
Speaker 2: D line is so yeah, just teasing them down again.

1432
01:10:20,120 --> 01:10:23,080
Speaker 2: Like you said, don't love the teaser week, but expect

1433
01:10:23,080 --> 01:10:25,519
Speaker 2: Tampa to win in Philly, just not not by a ton.

1434
01:10:25,520 --> 01:10:27,680
Speaker 2: I think Philly gives them a run, and same thing

1435
01:10:27,680 --> 01:10:29,920
Speaker 2: in Washington. I think Kansas City holds on, but I

1436
01:10:29,920 --> 01:10:32,439
Speaker 2: think Washington gives him a run for it. And there's yeah,

1437
01:10:32,479 --> 01:10:34,280
Speaker 2: there's no real two and a half's on the board.

1438
01:10:34,479 --> 01:10:36,320
Speaker 2: You know, there's nothing to tease up or down here

1439
01:10:36,400 --> 01:10:39,240
Speaker 2: that you know, So the market is tighten up a

1440
01:10:39,240 --> 01:10:41,799
Speaker 2: little bit. So that's what I'm going with to recap.

1441
01:10:41,960 --> 01:10:45,040
Speaker 2: Stuckey is going Colts from nine and a half to

1442
01:10:45,080 --> 01:10:48,120
Speaker 2: three and a half, Vegas from a plus nine and

1443
01:10:48,160 --> 01:10:50,120
Speaker 2: a half to plus three and a half. Stuck also

1444
01:10:50,200 --> 01:10:51,880
Speaker 2: likes the seven point taser in the spot, so you

1445
01:10:51,880 --> 01:10:54,120
Speaker 2: can see through the three and get to the two

1446
01:10:54,160 --> 01:10:56,519
Speaker 2: and a half for each of those. And I'm going

1447
01:10:56,560 --> 01:10:59,160
Speaker 2: with a six point teaser. Campa A minus seven to

1448
01:10:59,240 --> 01:11:01,840
Speaker 2: minus one, KC minus seven to minus one. Just take

1449
01:11:01,840 --> 01:11:03,320
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl teams to win. What could go wrong

1450
01:11:03,320 --> 01:11:07,840
Speaker 2: in Week six? All right, let's go to the money

1451
01:11:07,880 --> 01:11:10,000
Speaker 2: line underdog parlay.

1452
01:11:13,120 --> 01:11:18,040
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1453
01:11:18,200 --> 01:11:19,520
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1454
01:11:20,680 --> 01:11:22,800
Speaker 2: This is a victory lap segment of the pot. I

1455
01:11:22,800 --> 01:11:25,360
Speaker 2: know you touched on it earlier, but we are three

1456
01:11:25,400 --> 01:11:28,280
Speaker 2: and two on the year on moneyline dog parlays, and

1457
01:11:28,320 --> 01:11:30,519
Speaker 2: I believe we've hit seven out of ten of our

1458
01:11:30,560 --> 01:11:33,680
Speaker 2: money line picks period through the first five weeks, so

1459
01:11:34,439 --> 01:11:36,760
Speaker 2: we are We're pretty hot right now. Hit start me off.

1460
01:11:36,800 --> 01:11:37,639
Speaker 2: Where are we going this week?

1461
01:11:38,040 --> 01:11:40,600
Speaker 3: Hopefully the coaches pep talk pays off. We're going with

1462
01:11:40,640 --> 01:11:44,720
Speaker 3: the Jags in London against the Dolphins. I don't see

1463
01:11:44,720 --> 01:11:46,680
Speaker 3: a ton of value in this number. It looks like

1464
01:11:46,720 --> 01:11:49,439
Speaker 3: two is gonna play. All word today was he would,

1465
01:11:49,439 --> 01:11:51,679
Speaker 3: and I actually didn't have much of a difference between

1466
01:11:51,720 --> 01:11:54,760
Speaker 3: two and Perset's been awful, So I did upgrade the

1467
01:11:54,760 --> 01:11:57,200
Speaker 3: Dolphins by half point. I mean, if you look at

1468
01:11:57,479 --> 01:12:00,519
Speaker 3: EPA per play non garbage signed by quarterbacks, Wilson is

1469
01:12:00,520 --> 01:12:04,040
Speaker 3: the worst, then it's not Lawrence, it's Forsett. And then

1470
01:12:04,120 --> 01:12:07,160
Speaker 3: Lawrence is the third worst forseet forty two point two

1471
01:12:07,160 --> 01:12:11,679
Speaker 3: percent success rate. I mean negative point one two forty

1472
01:12:11,680 --> 01:12:13,599
Speaker 3: p a p play. Only Wilson is worse than that,

1473
01:12:14,040 --> 01:12:16,280
Speaker 3: So he's been really bad. The Dolphins are dead last

1474
01:12:16,760 --> 01:12:20,280
Speaker 3: uh in success rate on offense excluding garbage time at

1475
01:12:20,320 --> 01:12:22,439
Speaker 3: The Jags defense is terrible. Look we know this. They're

1476
01:12:22,479 --> 01:12:25,479
Speaker 3: thirty second adjusted sacerate their thirty second in pass defense.

1477
01:12:25,720 --> 01:12:29,680
Speaker 3: But you know Parker didn't play. You know you have

1478
01:12:29,720 --> 01:12:32,959
Speaker 3: Still's I can can this Miami offense really take advantage

1479
01:12:32,960 --> 01:12:35,719
Speaker 3: of this passing offense? I don't know, I mean park

1480
01:12:35,720 --> 01:12:38,080
Speaker 3: it in practice today? You know you have your deep

1481
01:12:38,120 --> 01:12:42,479
Speaker 3: threat fullers on ir whether it's two oh or Verseett, Like,

1482
01:12:42,560 --> 01:12:45,960
Speaker 3: can they really take advantage of this Jags pass defense.

1483
01:12:46,000 --> 01:12:47,920
Speaker 3: I'm sure they're going to get some plays, but you know,

1484
01:12:47,960 --> 01:12:50,400
Speaker 3: this isn't a great Miami offense. And then when I

1485
01:12:50,400 --> 01:12:52,479
Speaker 3: look at this game, I say, who's the best unit

1486
01:12:52,520 --> 01:12:55,280
Speaker 3: in this game? It might be the Jags running game.

1487
01:12:55,920 --> 01:12:59,720
Speaker 3: And yeah, you know they've They're second in DVOA their

1488
01:12:59,720 --> 01:13:02,120
Speaker 3: first at EPA per rush, second and rush success rate.

1489
01:13:02,160 --> 01:13:04,280
Speaker 3: They're averaging five point three yards per carry. Only the

1490
01:13:04,320 --> 01:13:08,080
Speaker 3: Browns are averaging more. And you know, Brandon Linder is

1491
01:13:08,120 --> 01:13:10,280
Speaker 3: now and I are there center, which is a little concerned,

1492
01:13:10,280 --> 01:13:13,080
Speaker 3: but you can run on this Miami team. Miami linebackers

1493
01:13:13,120 --> 01:13:15,559
Speaker 3: are just so bad against the run. They're thirty second

1494
01:13:15,600 --> 01:13:18,360
Speaker 3: and ten plus yard runs. You know, I do worry

1495
01:13:18,400 --> 01:13:20,360
Speaker 3: a little bit about the Dolphins are going to blitz

1496
01:13:20,400 --> 01:13:22,400
Speaker 3: a lot here, so you got to worry about what

1497
01:13:22,479 --> 01:13:24,880
Speaker 3: Lawrence is going to look like there. Although daven Hadre

1498
01:13:24,960 --> 01:13:26,720
Speaker 3: did practice today, so we don't know if he's going

1499
01:13:26,760 --> 01:13:28,519
Speaker 3: to play. But I just think this is a good

1500
01:13:28,640 --> 01:13:31,280
Speaker 3: chance for the Jags against the Dolphins team that's headed

1501
01:13:31,320 --> 01:13:33,960
Speaker 3: in the wrong direction. This is the jags eighth game

1502
01:13:34,000 --> 01:13:37,559
Speaker 3: in London. They've played seven years in a row leading

1503
01:13:37,600 --> 01:13:39,320
Speaker 3: up to last year when there wasn't a London game.

1504
01:13:39,680 --> 01:13:41,920
Speaker 3: I don't know if that helps. Here's a different staff,

1505
01:13:41,960 --> 01:13:44,479
Speaker 3: a different quarterback, but there's some players on the roster

1506
01:13:44,560 --> 01:13:47,400
Speaker 3: that have a lot of experience going to London. Maybe

1507
01:13:47,400 --> 01:13:48,320
Speaker 3: that helps a little bit.

1508
01:13:48,640 --> 01:13:49,040
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1509
01:13:49,080 --> 01:13:52,120
Speaker 3: Maybe that's a reach, but I think that there's a

1510
01:13:52,240 --> 01:13:54,479
Speaker 3: shot and a couple of things working in the Jags

1511
01:13:54,520 --> 01:13:58,559
Speaker 3: favor here to potentially get their first win and maybe

1512
01:13:58,640 --> 01:14:00,439
Speaker 3: only win of the year. Really lost twenty straight.

1513
01:14:00,800 --> 01:14:03,680
Speaker 2: I can't believe you're roping me into this pick, man,

1514
01:14:03,720 --> 01:14:06,280
Speaker 2: because it's a money line parlay. So it's like, I'm

1515
01:14:06,320 --> 01:14:09,280
Speaker 2: taking the Jaguars too. This is not I'm not happy

1516
01:14:09,360 --> 01:14:12,519
Speaker 2: with this, but I do. I honestly, I'm not even

1517
01:14:12,600 --> 01:14:15,760
Speaker 2: gonna push back that hard because I totally agree that

1518
01:14:15,840 --> 01:14:20,479
Speaker 2: the Jags run offense has been excellent, and you know,

1519
01:14:20,600 --> 01:14:23,000
Speaker 2: they finally figured out that, hey, you should probably get

1520
01:14:23,000 --> 01:14:25,479
Speaker 2: to go to James Robinson. Yeah he's I was saying

1521
01:14:25,479 --> 01:14:28,559
Speaker 2: this even in fantasy. I'm like games Robinson is really good.

1522
01:14:28,560 --> 01:14:31,599
Speaker 2: Guys like it's good. It would be like odd if

1523
01:14:31,600 --> 01:14:34,559
Speaker 2: they just completely disregarded him, even if Etm is healthy.

1524
01:14:34,640 --> 01:14:38,559
Speaker 2: But Jacksonville is now number one in the entire NFL

1525
01:14:38,640 --> 01:14:41,479
Speaker 2: in early down rush success. Spright now usually the run

1526
01:14:41,520 --> 01:14:44,400
Speaker 2: game does not factor into the outcome a whole lot.

1527
01:14:44,720 --> 01:14:47,519
Speaker 2: But as you allude to, everything else kind of cancels

1528
01:14:47,560 --> 01:14:52,000
Speaker 2: out right, like both teams pass offenses and both teams defenses,

1529
01:14:52,040 --> 01:14:56,800
Speaker 2: and so the team with the better run game could

1530
01:14:56,880 --> 01:14:59,720
Speaker 2: just come out victorious in this spot. And that is

1531
01:14:59,760 --> 01:15:03,160
Speaker 2: a the Jaguars, who you know, for as bad as

1532
01:15:03,240 --> 01:15:05,920
Speaker 2: they have been, or you know, this is actually a

1533
01:15:05,960 --> 01:15:09,360
Speaker 2: spot where as dare I say, the market may be

1534
01:15:09,560 --> 01:15:13,080
Speaker 2: underrating the Jags offense overall because overall the Drags offense

1535
01:15:13,200 --> 01:15:16,240
Speaker 2: is actually tenth and early down successfully. So they've been

1536
01:15:16,240 --> 01:15:18,160
Speaker 2: moving the ball, It's just they've been making these terrible

1537
01:15:18,160 --> 01:15:20,280
Speaker 2: mistakes and I'm sure they'll make some more out of them.

1538
01:15:20,320 --> 01:15:21,559
Speaker 2: But this is Miami's dollar.

1539
01:15:21,640 --> 01:15:24,000
Speaker 3: That's including some disasters early from Lawrence. You know he's

1540
01:15:24,000 --> 01:15:24,800
Speaker 3: only going to get better.

1541
01:15:24,840 --> 01:15:29,400
Speaker 2: So yeah, MYAMI team is hapless. I am going I mean,

1542
01:15:29,600 --> 01:15:32,120
Speaker 2: you went with a winless team in the AFC. I'll

1543
01:15:32,160 --> 01:15:34,120
Speaker 2: go with the win with team in the NFC Detroit

1544
01:15:34,200 --> 01:15:38,479
Speaker 2: plus one fifty hold for Campbell against Cincinnati. You're doing

1545
01:15:38,520 --> 01:15:41,320
Speaker 2: it for Campbell. You don't let your your your macho

1546
01:15:41,439 --> 01:15:44,560
Speaker 2: tight end, former tight end just tear up on the sideline.

1547
01:15:44,640 --> 01:15:47,679
Speaker 2: Because he keep blowing these games. But from an actual

1548
01:15:47,760 --> 01:15:50,400
Speaker 2: numbers perspective, there's a couple of things I like about

1549
01:15:50,400 --> 01:15:53,479
Speaker 2: this one. Number one. As you mentioned, Detroit's getting some pressure.

1550
01:15:54,160 --> 01:15:57,559
Speaker 2: Detroit in a situation where it reminds me a little

1551
01:15:57,600 --> 01:15:59,439
Speaker 2: bit of what we talked about in this Tampa Bay game.

1552
01:16:00,280 --> 01:16:02,880
Speaker 2: It's like Detroit's issue is on the back end, and

1553
01:16:02,960 --> 01:16:06,439
Speaker 2: Minnesota actually failed to exploit that last week adequately. But

1554
01:16:06,520 --> 01:16:08,400
Speaker 2: I think Cincinnati is going to be in the same boat.

1555
01:16:08,400 --> 01:16:11,479
Speaker 2: They've been very run heavy, and you just had Joe

1556
01:16:11,479 --> 01:16:14,200
Speaker 2: Burrow takes two of the worst hits that he's taken,

1557
01:16:14,240 --> 01:16:16,400
Speaker 2: and this is a guy who's got hurt for the season.

1558
01:16:16,600 --> 01:16:18,320
Speaker 2: You have the Ravens on deck, so it's just a

1559
01:16:18,479 --> 01:16:21,080
Speaker 2: bad spot. And then, oh, by the way, this is

1560
01:16:21,080 --> 01:16:25,880
Speaker 2: still Zachary Taylor. One. Zachary Taylor on the Road Dak

1561
01:16:25,960 --> 01:16:30,240
Speaker 2: Taylor on the Road is two and fourteen straight up.

1562
01:16:31,040 --> 01:16:33,880
Speaker 2: As coach of the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have been

1563
01:16:33,960 --> 01:16:37,840
Speaker 2: road favorites in his tenure. One time they were playing

1564
01:16:37,880 --> 01:16:40,720
Speaker 2: Miami in that year that they were both kind of

1565
01:16:40,960 --> 01:16:42,240
Speaker 2: racing for that number one draft.

1566
01:16:42,560 --> 01:16:44,240
Speaker 3: They were both like one in fifteen or they were

1567
01:16:44,280 --> 01:16:45,639
Speaker 3: both like one and thirteen or something.

1568
01:16:45,760 --> 01:16:49,680
Speaker 2: Miami won the game. So, like you said, just a

1569
01:16:49,760 --> 01:16:53,800
Speaker 2: flat spot come out for Cincinnati. You know, Burrow hasn't

1570
01:16:53,840 --> 01:16:55,960
Speaker 2: been great against the Lions. You know they play about it,

1571
01:16:56,040 --> 01:16:58,720
Speaker 2: don't play cover two with Aaron Glenn to safet these

1572
01:16:58,760 --> 01:17:01,920
Speaker 2: deep zone cover bro actually hasn't been great against that.

1573
01:17:02,640 --> 01:17:04,640
Speaker 2: He's below average if you look at his EPA per

1574
01:17:04,680 --> 01:17:08,439
Speaker 2: play and whatnot. So yeah, I worry about the Bengals

1575
01:17:08,439 --> 01:17:11,840
Speaker 2: in this spot, and I'm just kind of buying low

1576
01:17:12,240 --> 01:17:15,120
Speaker 2: on a team that's you know, we're talking money lines here.

1577
01:17:15,439 --> 01:17:18,479
Speaker 2: The Lions have zero wins. Their pitzagara and winsolt is

1578
01:17:18,520 --> 01:17:23,280
Speaker 2: one point five, so they're they've been bad, but they're

1579
01:17:23,320 --> 01:17:25,040
Speaker 2: more like a one to two win team, not a

1580
01:17:25,080 --> 01:17:29,880
Speaker 2: winless team. So this is a spot where I think, listen,

1581
01:17:30,000 --> 01:17:34,000
Speaker 2: it sounds, it's disgusting, but I pretty much rather take

1582
01:17:34,040 --> 01:17:36,920
Speaker 2: the Lions here on the money line. It's one of

1583
01:17:36,920 --> 01:17:38,519
Speaker 2: those spots where I'd rather take them on the money

1584
01:17:38,520 --> 01:17:41,000
Speaker 2: lines than take them on the spread. Lions plus one

1585
01:17:41,080 --> 01:17:44,360
Speaker 2: fifty stuck. You're going with the Jags plus one forty.

1586
01:17:44,600 --> 01:17:47,120
Speaker 2: That is a five to one payout, which means you

1587
01:17:47,120 --> 01:17:49,519
Speaker 2: bet one hundred dollars, you win six hundred, you bet

1588
01:17:49,520 --> 01:17:52,479
Speaker 2: a thousand, you win six thousand. Remember we're three and two,

1589
01:17:52,640 --> 01:17:56,599
Speaker 2: so hey, I can't I can't guarantee future success. But

1590
01:17:56,680 --> 01:18:01,559
Speaker 2: that's all say with three and two regression us Yeah, hopefully, hopefully,

1591
01:18:01,840 --> 01:18:04,000
Speaker 2: But all right, that does it for our money line

1592
01:18:04,040 --> 01:18:07,679
Speaker 2: underdog par Way Jacksonville plus one forty Detroit plus one fifty.

1593
01:18:07,880 --> 01:18:09,840
Speaker 2: Now let's get into the best of the rest, which

1594
01:18:09,880 --> 01:18:12,599
Speaker 2: is the game that we did not hit on in

1595
01:18:12,640 --> 01:18:15,320
Speaker 2: any other segment, and we only have one game this week.

1596
01:18:15,400 --> 01:18:18,719
Speaker 2: We got through pretty much all of them, but Rams

1597
01:18:18,720 --> 01:18:22,200
Speaker 2: Giants Rams nine and a half point favorites on the

1598
01:18:22,280 --> 01:18:24,840
Speaker 2: road at bet MGM, the official odds provider of the

1599
01:18:24,840 --> 01:18:27,479
Speaker 2: Action Network podcast, the total is forty eight and a half.

1600
01:18:27,720 --> 01:18:30,800
Speaker 2: I would feel better about the Giants, like catching the

1601
01:18:30,880 --> 01:18:33,280
Speaker 2: Rams and kind of like a little bit of a

1602
01:18:33,320 --> 01:18:35,840
Speaker 2: spot going across the country, But I mean, the Giants

1603
01:18:35,880 --> 01:18:37,599
Speaker 2: are just so banked up, and they're also been terrible

1604
01:18:37,640 --> 01:18:40,360
Speaker 2: at home, Like usually you expect teams like this, you

1605
01:18:40,360 --> 01:18:42,360
Speaker 2: know these spots. Maybe they'll be good at home. But

1606
01:18:42,439 --> 01:18:45,240
Speaker 2: Daniel Jones just four and eleven against the spread at home,

1607
01:18:45,640 --> 01:18:47,880
Speaker 2: So I don't know, I don't nothing I really want

1608
01:18:47,920 --> 01:18:50,000
Speaker 2: to do with this game. I mean the under maybe

1609
01:18:50,640 --> 01:18:53,960
Speaker 2: this team's played a seventeen to nine game early last

1610
01:18:53,960 --> 01:18:56,840
Speaker 2: season in which the Giants just kind of just kind

1611
01:18:56,880 --> 01:18:58,719
Speaker 2: of hung in there. I didn't know, Wow, the Rams

1612
01:18:58,760 --> 01:18:59,880
Speaker 2: offense to go off, I don't know what do you

1613
01:18:59,880 --> 01:19:00,519
Speaker 2: think it is? One?

1614
01:19:01,040 --> 01:19:02,720
Speaker 3: No clue. I would be a quick segment. I don't

1615
01:19:02,720 --> 01:19:04,200
Speaker 3: know who's playing for the Giants. I mean, I don't

1616
01:19:04,200 --> 01:19:06,200
Speaker 3: think Bark's gonna play. I don't think Colin is gonna play.

1617
01:19:06,400 --> 01:19:08,320
Speaker 3: Janel Jones is a concussion. He's going to be last

1618
01:19:08,320 --> 01:19:10,840
Speaker 3: second decision. I mean, it's just a mess. So I

1619
01:19:10,880 --> 01:19:12,840
Speaker 3: would see a little tiny bit of value in the

1620
01:19:12,880 --> 01:19:15,880
Speaker 3: Giants if I knew for sure that Jones was coming

1621
01:19:15,920 --> 01:19:17,960
Speaker 3: back and some of these other players. This is something

1622
01:19:18,040 --> 01:19:19,960
Speaker 3: you have to wait on towards the end of the week.

1623
01:19:19,960 --> 01:19:21,040
Speaker 3: I probably won't touch it.

1624
01:19:21,479 --> 01:19:23,840
Speaker 2: All right, That was the best at Arrest. Let's close

1625
01:19:23,840 --> 01:19:25,320
Speaker 2: it out with the Survivor Pool Pick of the week.

1626
01:19:32,520 --> 01:19:35,040
Speaker 1: The Survivorpool Pick of the week.

1627
01:19:36,920 --> 01:19:41,840
Speaker 2: Where you're going this week? You've used San fran Cisco, Cleveland, Denver, Cincinnati,

1628
01:19:41,880 --> 01:19:46,280
Speaker 2: and Minnesota. I've used San Francisco, Green Bay, Carolina, Cincinnati

1629
01:19:46,280 --> 01:19:47,040
Speaker 2: and Minnesota.

1630
01:19:47,720 --> 01:19:52,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, this one is it was tough for me because

1631
01:19:53,000 --> 01:19:55,240
Speaker 3: my original thought was I have to use it Indianapolis,

1632
01:19:55,280 --> 01:19:58,120
Speaker 3: and I think I am. But then I mean the

1633
01:19:58,160 --> 01:20:01,280
Speaker 3: Colts play the Jags and the Jets at home still,

1634
01:20:01,680 --> 01:20:04,320
Speaker 3: and that's you know in I think like weeks eight

1635
01:20:04,400 --> 01:20:06,000
Speaker 3: and nine, like that would be one of those weeks.

1636
01:20:06,000 --> 01:20:07,680
Speaker 3: Would be nice to have a team there. So that

1637
01:20:07,760 --> 01:20:09,360
Speaker 3: I think, all right, who else would I use here?

1638
01:20:09,800 --> 01:20:12,000
Speaker 3: Like I want to save all of the good teams,

1639
01:20:12,000 --> 01:20:14,720
Speaker 3: Like maybe I use the Steelers. But see, I mean

1640
01:20:14,760 --> 01:20:19,040
Speaker 3: Steelers have Week ten, the Steelers play the Lions at home.

1641
01:20:19,280 --> 01:20:23,400
Speaker 3: Week nine, they play the Bears at home. So I'm

1642
01:20:23,400 --> 01:20:24,560
Speaker 3: going to go Steelers.

1643
01:20:24,840 --> 01:20:27,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the exact same thing. I mean, it's

1644
01:20:27,920 --> 01:20:29,759
Speaker 2: one of my picks. I'm picking them as a favorite,

1645
01:20:29,800 --> 01:20:31,920
Speaker 2: so there's no reason, you know, I obviously have the

1646
01:20:31,920 --> 01:20:35,160
Speaker 2: confidence in them. I make the line closer to six.

1647
01:20:35,360 --> 01:20:38,360
Speaker 2: I worry a little bit about what Houston did last

1648
01:20:38,360 --> 01:20:40,800
Speaker 2: week was sustainable, but I also worry about the coach.

1649
01:20:40,960 --> 01:20:43,080
Speaker 2: I mean, this is still a division game. It's a

1650
01:20:43,160 --> 01:20:45,400
Speaker 2: Houston team that you know, every time you think the

1651
01:20:45,479 --> 01:20:48,000
Speaker 2: down and out, they outperform expectations. They probably should have

1652
01:20:48,040 --> 01:20:50,760
Speaker 2: beat the Patriots last week. The Coats have been piss

1653
01:20:50,760 --> 01:20:53,799
Speaker 2: pour on defense and they get zero pressure. So Davis

1654
01:20:53,840 --> 01:20:56,760
Speaker 2: Mills could conceivably, you know, he could go back to

1655
01:20:56,760 --> 01:20:59,439
Speaker 2: Brandon Cookson this one. You're not facing Belichick, So Brandon

1656
01:20:59,439 --> 01:21:01,400
Speaker 2: Cooks all of a sudden, is now an option again

1657
01:21:01,439 --> 01:21:03,599
Speaker 2: to get you know, one hundred plus yards of offense.

1658
01:21:03,800 --> 01:21:06,800
Speaker 2: That helps a lot for the Textans. So yeah, this

1659
01:21:06,840 --> 01:21:09,360
Speaker 2: is a this is a trap game. Like I'm probably

1660
01:21:09,360 --> 01:21:11,559
Speaker 2: gonna bet the Texans hoping to get a double digit

1661
01:21:11,640 --> 01:21:13,679
Speaker 2: spread here. So yeah, I'm not gonna I'm not gonna

1662
01:21:13,880 --> 01:21:16,240
Speaker 2: risk it with the survivor yet, of which we're both

1663
01:21:16,240 --> 01:21:17,000
Speaker 2: going to stealers here.

1664
01:21:17,400 --> 01:21:18,759
Speaker 3: Don't let me down, Toland.

1665
01:21:21,600 --> 01:21:24,040
Speaker 2: I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we

1666
01:21:24,040 --> 01:21:26,960
Speaker 2: can make one of you guys quit today. Oh it's Gino.

1667
01:21:27,080 --> 01:21:30,160
Speaker 2: That's that's what we just I'm banking on Gino. Like,

1668
01:21:30,200 --> 01:21:32,560
Speaker 2: that's that's what we're banking here. That is going to

1669
01:21:32,640 --> 01:21:35,680
Speaker 2: do it. For the week six Action Network NFL podcast,

1670
01:21:35,840 --> 01:21:37,880
Speaker 2: you can follow all of our picks on the award

1671
01:21:37,920 --> 01:21:42,000
Speaker 2: winning Free Action Network app. Just search for Sunday six

1672
01:21:42,120 --> 01:21:44,960
Speaker 2: pack in the apps, follow feature picks and posted there

1673
01:21:45,200 --> 01:21:48,240
Speaker 2: every Friday, and lets unless Matt Mitchell fucks up and

1674
01:21:48,240 --> 01:21:50,400
Speaker 2: posts his own picks there instead of our picks, then

1675
01:21:50,400 --> 01:21:52,720
Speaker 2: he'll delete them and repost our picks and it'll be

1676
01:21:52,760 --> 01:21:54,840
Speaker 2: all gravy. But either way, you can find our picks

1677
01:21:54,880 --> 01:22:00,760
Speaker 2: there on Friday every week. Find Stucky on Twitter at too.

1678
01:22:00,960 --> 01:22:03,600
Speaker 2: You can find me on Twitter at Chris Raibond, and

1679
01:22:03,680 --> 01:22:06,920
Speaker 2: you can find both of our picks at the same

1680
01:22:06,960 --> 01:22:10,400
Speaker 2: handles in the Action Network app. Be sure to check

1681
01:22:10,400 --> 01:22:13,960
Speaker 2: out actionnetwork dot com for all of our betting content

1682
01:22:14,040 --> 01:22:16,920
Speaker 2: for NFL and other sports. You can also find all

1683
01:22:16,960 --> 01:22:19,000
Speaker 2: of the content in the app. You can find our

1684
01:22:19,000 --> 01:22:22,040
Speaker 2: fantasy content at actionnetwork dot com. You can find our

1685
01:22:22,160 --> 01:22:26,920
Speaker 2: DFS content on Fantasy labs dot com. And uh, let's

1686
01:22:26,920 --> 01:22:27,439
Speaker 2: gonna do it.

1687
01:22:27,600 --> 01:22:29,559
Speaker 3: Let's get this money corrected.