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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Friday edition of Balance of Power. You
Speaker 2: made it to the threshold of the weekend, and this
Speaker 2: ought to be a fun one if you care about
Speaker 2: this stuff. Maybe you're getting turned off by the celebrity,
Speaker 2: but we've got a big Joe Rogan interview the podcast today.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is in Texas in Austin for that recording.
Speaker 2: I suspect a few people will hear it. And he's
Speaker 2: going there because well, Kamala Harris was already planning to
Speaker 2: be in Texas. She's in Houston, yes, with Beyonce and
Speaker 2: Willie Nelson a big rally there. Plan for tonight is
Speaker 2: she tries to seize on the issue of reproductive rights abortion,
Speaker 2: of course, noting Texas's abortion band. That's the backdrop for her,
Speaker 2: and we're going to go cascading into a weekend of
Speaker 2: showbiz and celebrity that will culminate on stage at Madison
Speaker 2: Square Garden, where Donald Trump is rented out the room
Speaker 2: for a million dollars, and I'm deeply curious to see
Speaker 2: who shows up because this is a big battle of
Speaker 2: the celebrities.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite,
Speaker 2: and on YouTube, where you can find us right now
Speaker 2: by searching Bloomberg Business News Live. This is right around
Speaker 2: the time when the national anxiety reaches a fever pitch.
Speaker 2: People are starting to turn off newscasts, turning away from
Speaker 2: the doom scroll, even though I know you're looking when
Speaker 2: we're not watching. Because we have another poll today that
Speaker 2: says what we already told you yesterday and what you're
Speaker 2: probably feeling, and that's why the anxiety exists. It's a
Speaker 2: tie yesterday Bloomberg Swing State Pole, remember forty nine forty
Speaker 2: nine in the seven Swing States, not just like a
Speaker 2: statistical tie, a real tie. And today it's the New
Speaker 2: York Times Siana College. I remember we've talked to Don
Speaker 2: Levy a lot around here, forty eight forty eight in
Speaker 2: their poll, so we do have some consistency, which is
Speaker 2: pretty interesting. I want to bring in Laura Davison at
Speaker 2: this moment because she is feeling the collective anxiety every day.
Speaker 2: This is what she does, Bloomberg Politics editor, with eleven
Speaker 2: days to go, how you holding up?
Speaker 4: You know we're going to be in there. We're almost
Speaker 4: on a single ed you are, and you know it
Speaker 4: is tighter than ever, which I think.
Speaker 5: Just adds to the fun.
Speaker 2: That's right, tighter than a tube soak, As Dan rather
Speaker 2: would have said, interesting to see another poll like this, right,
Speaker 2: we were just talking about the Bloomberg Morning Console poll yesterday.
Speaker 2: To see an entirely different organization with a presumably different
Speaker 2: sample to come to essentially the same result tells you what.
Speaker 4: It tells us that this is a really really close
Speaker 4: race and sort of what we saw over the past,
Speaker 4: you know, kind of August September time period where Harris
Speaker 4: was kind of steadily gaining, steadily gaining, that has really
Speaker 4: tightened off as a lot of people you know, this
Speaker 4: undecided have you know, finally tuned in and said, look,
Speaker 4: I'm either going to you know, land on Harris's side,
Speaker 4: land on Trump's side, and that there's just this teeny
Speaker 4: teeny tiny sliver of people in the middle who are
Speaker 4: still undecided. And that's why you see the star Power,
Speaker 4: the Beyonce, the Joe Rogan. You know, the candidates are
Speaker 4: going out trying to reach to people who you know,
Speaker 4: do not want to listen to political news regularly.
Speaker 2: Before yeah, God love him. Before we get into the
Speaker 2: Star Power, does this Rogan interview, I mean, he was
Speaker 2: saying nice things about RFK Junior. Does it end up
Speaker 2: being an endorsement?
Speaker 5: Do we know?
Speaker 2: Is this going to be a challenging interview? What are
Speaker 2: you expecting to come from this?
Speaker 4: You know this will be a one It'll be a
Speaker 4: long interview, That's what Brogan does. You know, we could
Speaker 4: have you know, two or three hours of you know,
Speaker 4: Trump hours with Rogan sitting down. You know, Rogan did
Speaker 4: endorse RFK Junior. He or you know, sort of said
Speaker 4: he supported us, and then he also said some nice
Speaker 4: things about Harris after that debate. He said that, you know, Harris,
Speaker 4: you know, was very polished, that she was well prepped,
Speaker 4: and that Trump was failing a little bit. You know,
Speaker 4: that was to remember the debate about Springfield and eat
Speaker 4: the cats and dogs. You know, Rogan in the past
Speaker 4: has espoused a lot of the same ideas that Trump has.
Speaker 4: You know that this is very much a podcast that
Speaker 4: is geared towards young men, people who are very online
Speaker 4: dabbling in conspiracy theory. So this is sort of a
Speaker 4: key audience for Trump. But you know, I don't think
Speaker 4: he needs necessarily the you know, explicit endorsement. He doesn't
Speaker 4: need Joe Rogan to say the words I endorse you.
Speaker 4: Just having him on the show and having a what
Speaker 4: will probably be a relatively friendly conversation is enough to
Speaker 4: get Trump what he needs do.
Speaker 2: Something whacky happened as Rogan light had joined in this
Speaker 2: interview of the way he did with Elon Musk. Does
Speaker 2: Elon Musk show up with him? It's in Austin, right,
Speaker 2: Do they roll in there together?
Speaker 6: Maybe?
Speaker 4: Highly possible. Do Elon Musk is spending a lot of
Speaker 4: time in Pennsylvania these days? Do you and get out
Speaker 4: the vote efforts? But expect that there will be all
Speaker 4: sorts of pageantry, all sorts of you know, fun surprises.
Speaker 4: This is a pas you know, because it's not really news.
Speaker 4: This is entertainment.
Speaker 2: So well, thank you for saying that that's true. Okay,
Speaker 2: so let's get into that for a minute, because everybody's
Speaker 2: saying that Kamala Harris is surrounding yourself and Democrats tend
Speaker 2: to be embraced by Hollywood. This thing last night night,
Speaker 2: My god, I mean, I'm just watching It's like entertainment tonight.
Speaker 2: You have Bruce Springsteen out there, Tyler Perry, Samuel L. Jackson,
Speaker 2: who else was speaking before, Kamala Harris. It was one
Speaker 2: after the other, one celeb after the other. But when
Speaker 2: you think about it, Donald Trump has quite a bit
Speaker 2: of celebrity power. Beyond Hulk Hogan and Dana White, He's
Speaker 2: got arguably one of the most famous people in the
Speaker 2: world named Elon Musk, who's also putting tens of millions
Speaker 2: of dollars into the campaign. So this is really something
Speaker 2: that's being used by both sides.
Speaker 1: Isn't it.
Speaker 4: This This really is And you see, you know, Musk
Speaker 4: is hosting his own events. You know, he was out,
Speaker 4: you know, in the past several days holding all these
Speaker 4: you know events in high school auditoriums in Pennsylvania. You know,
Speaker 4: we had some reporters on the ground talking to people there,
Speaker 4: and some of these folks were saying, look, I'm here
Speaker 4: because I'm an Elon fan, and I because I like Musk.
Speaker 4: You know, that kind of opened my eyes to Trump.
Speaker 4: So this is you know, sort of a thing that works,
Speaker 4: you know, in Trump's favor in many ways. You know,
Speaker 4: even though he is perhaps the most well known person
Speaker 4: in the world, you know, having you know, some a
Speaker 4: star power, someone who kind of has seen as cool
Speaker 4: as Musk is, you know, supporting him is super helpful.
Speaker 2: And another forty three million I think we were reporting
Speaker 2: that he's added to the kitty.
Speaker 4: Here, Yes, another more than forty three million. That puts
Speaker 4: his total for you know, both Trump as well as
Speaker 4: you know, Republicans down a ballot, you know, somewhere around
Speaker 4: one hundred and thirty two million at least incredible, which
Speaker 4: means that he goes from being basically a you know,
Speaker 4: someone who doesn't donate at all to being probably he'll
Speaker 4: end up on the top five for this election cycle,
Speaker 4: which is huge.
Speaker 2: You wonder what happens if Donald Trump doesn't win. Elon
Speaker 2: Musk go to the White House sit down.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: Good luck this weekend. Deep breaths, You're doing great. We're
Speaker 2: relying on you. Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics editor, Imagine being
Speaker 2: charge of at this moment, the sensitive moment of all
Speaker 2: the content that's going on the terminal and on the website,
Speaker 2: that's Laura, I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington and glad you're
Speaker 2: with us here as we zero in specifically on one
Speaker 2: of the swing states that we've been talking about. The seven,
Speaker 2: of course include Arizona, and it's ground zero for early
Speaker 2: voting because in Arizona this is nothing new. Republicans and
Speaker 2: Democrats have been doing this for me any cycles in
Speaker 2: Arizona because of the heat, because of the long way
Speaker 2: you have to drive, and a lot of these instances,
Speaker 2: and a lot of other reasons. So we've been watching
Speaker 2: very closely Republican and Democratic ballots in the states that
Speaker 2: we can, and we want to zero went on Arizona
Speaker 2: with an expert. Sam Almi is a Democratic political strategist
Speaker 2: and head of a data at a company called Uplift.
Speaker 2: I have been reading about Sam in just about every
Speaker 2: major newspaper on the daily all week, because if you
Speaker 2: want to know what's going on with early voting in Arizona,
Speaker 2: this is who you call. Sam. Welcome to Bloomberg and
Speaker 2: Balance of Power. It's great to see you give me
Speaker 2: a sense because you're on the ground looking at the
Speaker 2: latest numbers where we stand with the early vote in
Speaker 2: Arizona today.
Speaker 7: All right, thanks Joe, Right now today, I just updated
Speaker 7: my numbers about fifteen minutes before I got on the show.
Speaker 7: Here we're at one point two million returns statewide. That
Speaker 7: gives us a turnout of about twenty eight percent. I
Speaker 7: think we're ending We're looking to end up around probably
Speaker 7: seventy seven seventy six percent. How the parties break down
Speaker 7: right now? We have four hundred and twenty thousand Democratic ballots,
Speaker 7: five hundred thousand GOP ballots, and two hundred and seventy
Speaker 7: four thousand independent ballots.
Speaker 2: So give us a little historical perspective here and how
Speaker 2: that compares to twenty and sixteen. Are the two parties
Speaker 2: on track with what you expected?
Speaker 7: Yeah, this is where it gets really interesting for a
Speaker 7: little for wonks like me. Compared to twenty twenty, this
Speaker 7: looks very different for Democrats. For Republicans, they're on pace
Speaker 7: with their they're a little bit ahead of their twenty
Speaker 7: twenty pace. Democrats are way further behind on their twenty
Speaker 7: twenty pace. They're down about nine percent in overall turnout.
Speaker 7: But as we all know, twenty twenty that was.
Speaker 1: A weird year.
Speaker 7: If we could look back to If we look back
Speaker 7: to twenty sixteen, everything's on pace. Democrats are about two
Speaker 7: percent ahead in turnout of where they were same for
Speaker 7: Republicans Independence, however, they're down about one percent. So it's
Speaker 7: really tricky for people like me to find that right
Speaker 7: sweet spot of an election to compare to understood.
Speaker 2: So does that give us a sense then that the
Speaker 2: RNC got its arms around the messaging here even as
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is called early voting stupid and dangerous, or
Speaker 2: does it suggest a normalizing coming out of a pandemic election.
Speaker 7: This is really confounding for me too. I think early
Speaker 7: in our voting periods. In the first week, we saw
Speaker 7: a lot of early in person voting, which is not
Speaker 7: very popular in Arizona because as you mentioned, we've had
Speaker 7: about two decades of early by male voting. It's very safe,
Speaker 7: very secure. People love it, All parties use it. But
Speaker 7: I think we saw some very hard partisans who are
Speaker 7: very engaged on the GOP side. They are making a
Speaker 7: compromise saying, Okay, I'm going to vote early, but I'm
Speaker 7: not going to do it by the mail, so they
Speaker 7: do it early in person.
Speaker 2: Okay, that's actually really interesting color and you kind of
Speaker 2: have to be there to know about this. Arizona is
Speaker 2: not the only one we're watching. If you consider some
Speaker 2: of the other states that are in play here where
Speaker 2: we actually have a breakdown on Democrats and Republicans, the
Speaker 2: GOP is doing pretty well if you look at Nevada,
Speaker 2: for instance, Sam, it's not just Arizona where we're seeing this.
Speaker 2: Is this a national trend?
Speaker 7: It probably is, just if you compare to twenty twenty,
Speaker 7: there's a lot of anti vote by mail sentiment. Turns out,
Speaker 7: voting by mail is safe, easy, and convenient. The GOP
Speaker 7: has decided to embrace that. They are on pace with
Speaker 7: their twenty twenty and twenty sixteen turnout numbers.
Speaker 2: Right now, the story in Arizona has been pretty fascinating.
Speaker 2: And I know that we're here to talk about pulling ballots,
Speaker 2: but there are questions about ballot splitting here where you've
Speaker 2: got a Senate race and a presidential campaign that just
Speaker 2: don't seem to align unless Republicans are leaving something blank
Speaker 2: or Democrats or deciding to vote for Donald Trump. How
Speaker 2: do you rationalize the narrative right now in Arizona.
Speaker 7: Yeah, that is going to be a really interesting thing
Speaker 7: in twenty twenty twenty. The GOP has always had a
Speaker 7: registration advantage over the Democrats. In twenty twenty it was
Speaker 7: about one hundred and hundred and thirty thousand, twenty twenty sixteen,
Speaker 7: it was closer to one hundred and fifty thousand. Right now,
Speaker 7: the advantage for Republicans is closer to three hundred thousand ballots.
Speaker 7: So both the presidential and US Senate campaign are going
Speaker 7: to have to rely heavily on these tickets splitting Republicans
Speaker 7: that are that are turned off by the MAGA type
Speaker 7: politics that follow You know, our former US Senator John McCain,
Speaker 7: our top of the ticket campaigns are really going to
Speaker 7: heavily rely on those tickets splitting Republicans, that's for sure.
Speaker 2: When it comes to overall turnout, when do you start
Speaker 2: to draw conclusions, You've got I think until November first, Right,
Speaker 2: is it going to be throughout next week? By the
Speaker 2: end of next week, you're going to be able to
Speaker 2: take a stab at what overall turnout in this election
Speaker 2: will be like when you include actual election day voting.
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's that's another thing. I actually looked a couple
Speaker 7: days ago, and my turnout projection was was just so
Speaker 7: low I didn't I had to throw it out. So
Speaker 7: I'm going to take a look probably in the next
Speaker 7: couple days. I know one of our major counties, Pima County,
Speaker 7: was they had a little bit of a delay in
Speaker 7: sending out ballots, so their returns are about three days
Speaker 7: behind where they have been in the past couple cycles.
Speaker 7: You know, I still am expecting overall turnout to be
Speaker 7: a little bit less than our eighty percent record high
Speaker 7: in twenty twenty, but not any any sort of record
Speaker 7: low or anything like that.
Speaker 2: Sure the other we're dealing with hard numbers. Here, go ahead,
Speaker 2: Sam finished, Yeah, oh.
Speaker 7: Yeah, absolutely. So. One of the other things that I'm
Speaker 7: very curious about is I'm comparing this I'm starting to
Speaker 7: look at twenty eighteen data because that's when there was
Speaker 7: the red mirage of Republicans built up a huge early
Speaker 7: ballot lead, but Democrats turned out on election day where
Speaker 7: they dropped off their early ballots and showed up and
Speaker 7: voted at the polls.
Speaker 1: How about that?
Speaker 2: You know, the question I've got to ask you that
Speaker 2: you don't want to answer, is when they're going to
Speaker 2: call the state of Arizona.
Speaker 7: Oh, it's not going to be on November fifth. I'll
Speaker 7: tell you that. I yeah, I would probably. I would
Speaker 7: probably guess at probably a week later, but I'm pretty
Speaker 7: conservative with that estimate. Yeah would, I wouldn't. If we
Speaker 7: have results on the ninth or tenth that weekend, I'd
Speaker 7: be pretty surprised.
Speaker 2: And that's because of the distances involves and the time
Speaker 2: it takes to count all these early ballots.
Speaker 7: Yeah. Absolutely. You know, usually at the when when the
Speaker 7: polls close, there are a lot of early ballots that
Speaker 7: are simply dropped off at the polls. We have about
Speaker 7: half a million. We have to verify those, we have
Speaker 7: to make sure that they are valid, and then we
Speaker 7: count them.
Speaker 2: Man, he's right in the thick of it, Sam, I
Speaker 2: appreciate you taking time for us today. Sam Almi, Democratic
Speaker 2: political Strategists. He's at Uplift where he's the head of
Speaker 2: data and tracking the ballots as they drop. That's real
Speaker 2: time stuff you'll only hear on Bloomberg.
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Speaker 8: A conversation we've been having for the last several days
Speaker 8: about how this is a fifty to fifty election, a
Speaker 8: tass up, a coin flip. We aren't sure who will win.
Speaker 8: It looks like it is dead. Even Terry Haynes of
Speaker 8: Pangea Policy might be slightly more sure than the rest
Speaker 8: of us, not by much, but he gives Harris sixty
Speaker 8: percent odds of winning, Donald Trump forty percent, and Terry
Speaker 8: is with us now here on Bloomberg TV, Got It
Speaker 8: and radio. So Terry provide the justification here what everyone's saying.
Speaker 8: Fifty to fifty, don't trust your gut. We can't call this,
Speaker 8: No one credibly can. Why do you see it as
Speaker 8: more likely that Harris pulls this out at this point?
Speaker 5: Well, well, one of the first things I ever learned
Speaker 5: about markets, many years ago, was that fifty to fifty
Speaker 5: is no call at all, And if you're in a
Speaker 5: calling business, you better make at all. And you know,
Speaker 5: likely you know for what or ill you know? I'm
Speaker 5: in the call business, So you know, in a true
Speaker 5: fifty to fifty race, you've got to move to the intangibles,
Speaker 5: and I think Harris has the better argument. She's got
Speaker 5: I think a better get out the vote, turnout machine.
Speaker 5: I think there's higher voter enthusiasm for her. I think
Speaker 5: she's had greater message discipline that enables people to be voters,
Speaker 5: to be motivated, you know, and that that's on both
Speaker 5: social issues I think and Trump loathing. There's this kind
Speaker 5: of tabula rasa appeal about Harris I think has diminished
Speaker 5: some recently when she gets specific about issues, but that's
Speaker 5: been out there, and frankly, there's a lack of serious
Speaker 5: policy difference between the two candidates. It's not as if
Speaker 5: we're talking about, you know, whether the federal government ought
Speaker 5: to be involved in providing health care or not. It's
Speaker 5: a matter of shade gradations and you know, so there's
Speaker 5: there's nothing that's kind of a big issue that's going
Speaker 5: to turn the public on or off other than the
Speaker 5: social issues I already mentioned. So I think at the
Speaker 5: end of the day, she gets the better of it.
Speaker 5: But you know, I've got Trump at forty percent and
Speaker 5: he can still surprise the upside. But I do think
Speaker 5: that there's a very hard ceiling that's been demonstrated all
Speaker 5: year with Trump.
Speaker 2: I know your ears were burning when I was talking
Speaker 2: about you on the air earlier this week, Terry, because
Speaker 2: you have the note of the moment. Drunks leaning on
Speaker 2: lamp posts, of course, invoking the great Vinn Scully quote.
Speaker 2: Statistics are used much as a drunk uses a lamp post,
Speaker 2: this great old saying for support, not illumination. With that said,
Speaker 2: everybody's given us a gut check now, and we have
Speaker 2: a couple of other factors here. Nate Silver, by the way,
Speaker 2: in a guest essay in The New York Times, says
Speaker 2: his gut points to Trump, and he points to shy
Speaker 2: voter theory, non response bias, the undersampling of Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: He's got potentially some things going in his favor, too,
Speaker 2: doesn't he.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Yeah, there's I mean, look, there's a lot of
Speaker 5: different shades to this, and you know any one of
Speaker 5: them can can surprise. You know, my threshold issue on
Speaker 5: this all along and people talk about issue issue issue.
Speaker 5: The threshold issue is is is the credibility of Harris
Speaker 5: as a president. That's an issue for good or ill
Speaker 5: that Trump doesn't have as much because he actually has
Speaker 5: been a president. So you know, you have your own
Speaker 5: opinion about that, but it's the credibility of Harris, and
Speaker 5: you know she's going to continue to hammer that in
Speaker 5: in two ways. One by continuing to make the case
Speaker 5: for herself. That's what this Ellipse visit is about next
Speaker 5: week rally. And secondly, you know she's going to continue
Speaker 5: to make the case that Trump has disqualified himself for
Speaker 5: a variety of reasons. And and you know she hangs
Speaker 5: her hat on that because that everything else flows from that.
Speaker 5: If you think if you as a voter, I think
Speaker 5: Harris isn't qualified or as anything else, then you know
Speaker 5: you make a different choice. But if Harris and Trump
Speaker 5: are both in the conversation, Harris is more so than you.
Speaker 5: She's passed the first and most important test and she's
Speaker 5: got the likely or ability I think to convince about her.
Speaker 8: So let's talk about convincing the financial markets, Terry, because
Speaker 8: there was a lot of conversation this week about what
Speaker 8: we were seeing in the bond markets, specifically a selloff
Speaker 8: pressure upward on yields, and a lot of people were
Speaker 8: pointing to fiscal policy. Concerned forget about what the Federal
Speaker 8: Reserve is doing for a second, when you look at
Speaker 8: the policy proposals that both of them have put forward
Speaker 8: during this campaign, perhaps that is something that is a
Speaker 8: little frightening to the bond market at this time. What
Speaker 8: do you see as actual reality that the market should
Speaker 8: be paying attention to. How worried should they be about
Speaker 8: fiscal discipline or lack thereof? But from both of these candidates,
Speaker 8: regardless of who wins the presidency, but considering who might
Speaker 8: win control of Congress.
Speaker 5: Well, they're absolutely right to be hugely concerned about the candidates,
Speaker 5: and not just because they went through this whole Oprah
Speaker 5: phase of their campaigns where they were promised lots of
Speaker 5: things to lots of people. Markets once every four years,
Speaker 5: markets forget what they know the other three years, which
Speaker 5: is that it's really the Congress that's more important to
Speaker 5: the policy equation than the president. And you know, so
Speaker 5: what markets always do, when analysts always do, is they
Speaker 5: put out these you know, baskets of stocks, Trump baskets
Speaker 5: and Harris baskets and how this is going to how
Speaker 5: this is going to affect The assumption is wrong though.
Speaker 5: The assumption is somehow that the president provides a gravitational
Speaker 5: pull when in fact, it's much more of the opposite.
Speaker 5: You get a situation where, you know, twenty seventeen tax
Speaker 5: law is a perfect example of this. Trump and A
Speaker 5: and all Republican Congress made it possible, but the all
Speaker 5: Republican Congress, you know, decided how low the rates could be,
Speaker 5: decided the specifics, all the rest. Trump was essentially limited
Speaker 5: to details and making sure you got the thing assigned.
Speaker 5: Anybody that doubts that Congress is more important than the
Speaker 5: president when it comes to the vast majority of economic
Speaker 5: policies has only to ask Jimmy Carter how energy policy went,
Speaker 5: how George W. Bush, asked George W. Bush how Social
Speaker 5: Security went, or asked Obama about pretty much anything after
Speaker 5: twenty ten when he couldn't get anything through thanks to
Speaker 5: the makeup of Congress, so including a lot of trade
Speaker 5: laws and trade treaties. So Congress, the makeup of Congress
Speaker 5: here is more important for policy. And the makeup of
Speaker 5: Congress is about seventy percent likely to be a tiny
Speaker 5: Democratic majority in the House and a tiny Republican majority
Speaker 5: in the Senate. That guarantees a lot of things, but
Speaker 5: one is that there's not going to be any serious
Speaker 5: action on fiscal debt and deficit going forward.
Speaker 2: That seems to be true. Is that how you're looking
Speaker 2: at the results on the Hill. I know we're going
Speaker 2: to be waiting a while probably to find out about
Speaker 2: the House, but the conventional wisdom seems to be pretty
Speaker 2: consistent here, Terry tough map for Democrats in the Senate
Speaker 2: and a likely pickup to have a speaker HACKEM. Jeffreyes.
Speaker 5: Well, yeah, I think so. The you know, the path
Speaker 5: for Democrats in the House has been evident and likely
Speaker 5: since the day after the election in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 5: They need to pick up some seats they lost to
Speaker 5: Republicans in largely blue states New York and California, and
Speaker 5: they're likelier than not to do that. At the same time,
Speaker 5: you got a Senate map that where you have seven
Speaker 5: or eight competitive races on the Democratic side, all of
Speaker 5: which they have to sweep to maintain a majority. Are
Speaker 5: they likely to do that? I've never been likely to
Speaker 5: do that, and now it's apparent that they probably won't.
Speaker 5: Is you know, I'll give you thirty percent that one
Speaker 5: or both of those is wrong, but those are by
Speaker 5: far the likeliest results. So what you get on that
Speaker 5: I think is post election, you get negative fiscal debt
Speaker 5: and deficit. You get negative on tax since Democrats won't
Speaker 5: want to ratify an extension of the twenty seventeen tax law.
Speaker 5: I think you get negatives on tariffs because I think
Speaker 5: what markets don't understand is tariffs are not only you know,
Speaker 5: part of the policy in both parties now, but they're
Speaker 5: going to get bigger because of national security concerns, which
Speaker 5: both both candidacies are talking about. And I think you're
Speaker 5: positive for defense and defense industrial base frankly, so you
Speaker 5: know that's what they're going to be looking at going forward.
Speaker 5: It's a mistake to think that whatever it's just being
Speaker 5: discussed today is what's going to be discussed after the election.
Speaker 8: Terry, we've got thirty seconds left you Michigan consumer sentiment
Speaker 8: hit a six month high in data today. What political
Speaker 8: signal does that send?
Speaker 5: I think it doesn't send much of anything. You've got
Speaker 5: a situation where the vast majority of voters are baked
Speaker 5: in number one, generally on who they like. Secondly, they're
Speaker 5: baked in on how they feel about the economy already.
Speaker 5: You know, if you're if you're a Western Pennsylvania and
Speaker 5: it's severely affected by high prices. You're not going to
Speaker 5: magically feel better in the last month or so.
Speaker 2: The line to remember from Terry's note I meant and
Speaker 2: investors are wise to keep the full salt shaker on
Speaker 2: hand from Pangaea Policy. Good to see you, Terry Haynes.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg TV and Radio.
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Speaker 8: The home stretch of this election cycle, with just eleven
Speaker 8: days to go until election Day, which means it is
Speaker 8: closing arguments time. We've been running through many of the
Speaker 8: closing arguments we've seen from these two presidential campaigns here
Speaker 8: on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio for
Speaker 8: the last several days. But to reiterate for Kamala Harris,
Speaker 8: in part it focuses on reproductive rates that will be
Speaker 8: highlighted in her visit to Texas Today with Beyonce. She's
Speaker 8: focusing on the issue of abortion in a state which
Speaker 8: has very restrictive policies in that regard. But she also
Speaker 8: was in Georgia yesterday. Former President Barack Obama was there
Speaker 8: rallying with her, and she was focusing on the other
Speaker 8: closing message that we have seen her reiterate time and
Speaker 8: again that Donald Trump is unfit for office and a
Speaker 8: danger to democracy.
Speaker 9: Someone who suggests we should terminate the Constitution of the
Speaker 9: United States of America should never again stand behind the
Speaker 9: seal of the President of the United States of America.
Speaker 2: Let's assemble our signature panel here on the Friday edition
Speaker 2: to Ballants of Power Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democratic analyst,
Speaker 2: and political science professor at Iona University, joined by Rick Davis,
Speaker 2: of course, Republican strategist partner at Stone Court Capital. So
Speaker 2: here's the way. The closing arguments, at least the bumper
Speaker 2: sticker versions are boiling down. And we talked to Jim
Speaker 2: Messina about this right around this time yesterday. For Kamala Harris,
Speaker 2: she has a to do list. He has an enemy
Speaker 2: list for Donald Trump. It's she broke it, Trump can
Speaker 2: fix it, which one resonates Rick.
Speaker 10: Look, I mean, if you take a look at how
Speaker 10: people feel about the direction of the country, you know,
Speaker 10: significantly negative. We've been talking about the consumer sentiment index
Speaker 10: well lower than a party in power wants to see
Speaker 10: it going into an election. They broke it, He's going
Speaker 10: to fix it. Is a very compelling argument. I suspect
Speaker 10: he'd be doing even better in this election if he
Speaker 10: would not go into these various controversial places he's been
Speaker 10: and just said that over and over, this would not
Speaker 10: be a close election.
Speaker 8: And yet it is one Genie. So it raises the
Speaker 8: question of how effective Harris's closing argument actually is. If
Speaker 8: this is making if she is making it too much
Speaker 8: about him and not enough about her, does she need
Speaker 8: to course correct on that, including tonight in Texas.
Speaker 11: No, I don't think so. I think it is an
Speaker 11: effective message because it resonates with what she has been
Speaker 11: trying to tell these voters out there, which is that
Speaker 11: Donald Trump is all about himself. Just listen to him,
Speaker 11: just watch him go to his rallies, and I am
Speaker 11: about you. I'm going to be working for you. So
Speaker 11: I think as a message it works. I do think
Speaker 11: her event tonight is really important. She starts the year
Speaker 11: on abortion and reproductive healths. She's going to end it there.
Speaker 11: And as we look at these polls that are coming
Speaker 11: out just in the last few days, abortion is a
Speaker 11: winning issue for her. And Texas of course has one
Speaker 11: of the most restrictive abortion laws, not even an exception
Speaker 11: for rape or incest, only an exception for the life
Speaker 11: of the mother. And of course they have been focusing
Speaker 11: on women and men who want children and who have
Speaker 11: not been able to get the healthcare they need because
Speaker 11: down there are scared there facing ninety nine years in jail.
Speaker 11: So it's an effective strategy. And of course she's got
Speaker 11: the Queen Bee down there with her. How could she lose.
Speaker 2: That's a fair point.
Speaker 1: Rick.
Speaker 2: We talked earlier in the program with a man named
Speaker 2: Sam Almi. You might know him as, of course, a
Speaker 2: veteran of Arizona politics, although he's a Democrat, and he's
Speaker 2: been monitoring the early vote, specifically counting ballots here for
Speaker 2: D's and RS. We have an important story on the
Speaker 2: terminal and you've talked to us about this before. Right now,
Speaker 2: more registered Republicans have voted in Arizona, Nevada, and North
Speaker 2: Carolina than Democrats have. This is public data. This is
Speaker 2: not something we're speculating on. It's not a poll, and
Speaker 2: so what does it mean for the final outcome in
Speaker 2: this election?
Speaker 6: Rick?
Speaker 5: Yeah, some of.
Speaker 10: Those places like Arizona that you mentioned have a long
Speaker 10: history of Republicans voting early by turning an air ballot
Speaker 10: or by mail. So that's not a surprise, and I
Speaker 10: think you know that was born out by your guest earlier.
Speaker 10: And Republican registrations are up in a lot of these places,
Speaker 10: so you just have a larger pool of voters to
Speaker 10: pull from than we did four years ago. That being said,
Speaker 10: you do see big, disparaging, big desperate numbers in places
Speaker 10: like Pennsylvania and specifically around the Coller counties of Philadelphia,
Speaker 10: where I think the election in Pennsylvania will be decided.
Speaker 10: And in those places, Democrats are voting at a higher
Speaker 10: frequency with bigger margins than they had before. And in
Speaker 10: places like Bucks County, you really wonder how many of
Speaker 10: those could be Republicans voting for Kamala Harris since that's
Speaker 10: been the focus of her efforts there. So you know,
Speaker 10: it's just like the polling, the early vote is a
Speaker 10: mixed bag. If you want to take a partisan point
Speaker 10: of view on it, you can make a case very
Speaker 10: easily for Democrats doing better or Republicans doing better. It
Speaker 10: just depends upon which state you think you're going to win.
Speaker 8: But Rick, if we consider the fact that, well, we
Speaker 8: don't know who Republicans are voting for, Republicans are showing
Speaker 8: out up to vote, despite some of the rhetoric we
Speaker 8: have heard from Donald Trump about that as a as
Speaker 8: a voting method, He's called it stupid at one point
Speaker 8: during this cycle. This is the RNC who has kind
Speaker 8: of forced this to happen. Right, For all of the
Speaker 8: conversation we've had here on balance of power over the
Speaker 8: course of the last many many months about how Donald
Speaker 8: Trump is not necessarily a candidate you can discipline the campaign.
Speaker 8: The RNC can only control this so much. They have
Speaker 8: been able to control this in some sense.
Speaker 10: What does that say, Yeah, I'm not sure it's the
Speaker 10: rn C controlling this. The reality is Arizona again, good example, right,
Speaker 10: Republicans voting at a higher level, higher levels of registration.
Speaker 10: The rn C has not been on the ground in
Speaker 10: Arizona doing any of that. There's a very small get
Speaker 10: out to vote operation in Arizona, a fraction of which
Speaker 10: would be normal compared to previous presidential elections.
Speaker 3: Cycle.
Speaker 10: So look, I mean, you know, and when you look
Speaker 10: at how these voting patterns are changing, all of these
Speaker 10: early voting patterns are different than in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 10: which were significantly different than in twenty twenty. So is
Speaker 10: what are we comparing it to? Are we comparing it
Speaker 10: to the twenty two get out the vote efforts in
Speaker 10: early voting which actually look a lot more like what's
Speaker 10: happening today than in twenty twenty or twenty sixteen. So look,
Speaker 10: we've talked a lot about how this is a replay
Speaker 10: of the twenty twenty elections when Biden and Trump were
Speaker 10: in but the reality is it's a unique election and
Speaker 10: it's performing differently than any previous presidential election.
Speaker 2: Really fascinating as well when you consider, well both campaigns
Speaker 2: want us to be talking about today, we've already gone there.
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris going to be talking about reproductive rights, yep,
Speaker 2: Beyonce by her side in Texas. Donald Trump is going
Speaker 2: to be sitting down with Joe Rogan. They're doing the
Speaker 2: podcast this afternoon. I suspect a lot of people Genie
Speaker 2: are going to watch and to hear it. And when
Speaker 2: you look at the gender gap in this campaign. We've
Speaker 2: spent some time on this men versus women. It's underscored
Speaker 2: again in the Siena College, New York Times Pool. Harris
Speaker 2: leads Trump among women fifty four to forty two percent.
Speaker 2: Trump leads Harris among men fifty five to forty one percent.
Speaker 2: What they're doing today is not going to change this.
Speaker 2: It might actually make it worse. Geenie, what do you think?
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean, it really shows you. They're both in Texas.
Speaker 11: I don't think we'd ever have thought that. Eleven days
Speaker 11: to go, they find themselves in a state where Donald
Speaker 11: Trump's definitely going to win. But it is in part
Speaker 11: because of these issues that appeal to their supporters. For
Speaker 11: Donald Trump, that's immigration, For you know, obviously Kamala Harris,
Speaker 11: that's abortion, and of course Donald Trump is down there
Speaker 11: to talk to Joe Rogan. I think the last time
Speaker 11: I checked, he has like one hundred and ninety million
Speaker 11: downloads a day on his or maybe it's a month.
Speaker 11: It's got to be a month right on his podcast,
Speaker 11: and it's just incredible number lots of those young men.
Speaker 11: And I just am so fascinated by this interview because she's,
Speaker 11: you know, not that far away. Does she like go
Speaker 11: out and you know, stalk them. I don't know. Does
Speaker 11: Elon Musk show up and light up like he's done
Speaker 11: with Joe Rogan in the past. So much can go
Speaker 11: wrong with this interview, and it's gonna be like typical
Speaker 11: Joe Rogan three hours. So I'm fascinated by it, and
Speaker 11: I really hope that Kamala Harris surprises us with one
Speaker 11: of her own on Joe Rogan. But so far we.
Speaker 8: Don't get that well. Speaking of a following Elon Musk
Speaker 8: cause and two hundred and two million followers on X
Speaker 8: the platform of course that he owns. He also, according
Speaker 8: to new reporting from The Wall Street Journal that hit yesterday,
Speaker 8: has been in communication with Russian President Vladimir Putin, just
Speaker 8: as we also have questions about Donald Trump's own communication
Speaker 8: with Putin since he left the White House, remembering Bob
Speaker 8: Woodward's new book that suggests they had spoken on multiple
Speaker 8: occasions since Trump was president. Remember our Bloomberg editor chief
Speaker 8: John Micklelthwaite asked Trump directly about this, and this is
Speaker 8: how it went.
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 3: I don't comment on that, but I will tell you
Speaker 3: that if I did, it's a smart thing. If I'm
Speaker 3: friendly with people. If I have a relationship with people,
Speaker 3: that's a good thing, not a bit thing in terms
Speaker 3: of a country. He's got two thousand nuclear weapons, and
Speaker 3: so do we. China has a lot less, but they'll
Speaker 3: catch us within five years.
Speaker 8: Genie, we've got a minute left here. Even if Donald
Speaker 8: Trump isn't directly communicating with Putin privately, what would it
Speaker 8: say if Elon Musk, who has been so who has
Speaker 8: become so close to him and his campaign is doing so.
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean, I think it just reinvigorates the conversation
Speaker 11: which is really important about Donald Trump's relationship with Vladimir Putin.
Speaker 11: And you know, you listen to Donald Trump in that interview,
Speaker 11: and what does he say, Oh, it's important to be
Speaker 11: friendly with everybody, especially somebody who has this many nuclear weapons.
Speaker 11: The reality is the United States has a president right now.
Speaker 11: Former presidents don't talk to autocratic leaders of other nations
Speaker 11: without going through the government at least, it's not good form.
Speaker 11: And so the fact that he may have done that,
Speaker 11: and his number one donor apparently may be doing it
Speaker 11: as well, is deeply, deeply concerning to the security of
Speaker 11: the United States.
Speaker 8: All Right, Geenie, Shanzino of the Center for the Study
Speaker 8: of the Presidency and Congress, alongside Rick Davis of stone
Speaker 8: Court Capital. Both of them Bloomberg Politics contributors, are always
Speaker 8: closing us out on every single Friday. Thank you both
Speaker 8: so much for being here. Joe, We're going to continue
Speaker 8: the conversation around Vladimir Putin and his ongoing war with Ukraine.
Speaker 8: Coming up next is Melinda Herring will be joining us
Speaker 8: from the Atlanta Council.
Speaker 2: I can only imagine what went through her mind when
Speaker 2: she heard about this. By the way, the head of NASA,
Speaker 2: Bill Nelson, talking to Semaphore about this just a short
Speaker 2: time ago, Kaylee says, if true, the Pentagon and NASA
Speaker 2: would be concerned and it should be investigated. We'll have
Speaker 2: a lot more on this coming.
Speaker 8: Up, indeed, we will so stay with us here on
Speaker 8: Balance of Power Live from both Washington and New York today.
Speaker 8: Right here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ken
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then
Speaker 1: roun Oo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York Station,
Speaker 1: just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Turning our attention to geopolitics and a story that is
Speaker 2: impossible to separate from the presidential election that's of course
Speaker 2: underway right now here. We've heard from President Zelensky Kaylei,
Speaker 2: following up on a story that we discussed earlier this
Speaker 2: week with Ambassador James Jeffrey. Ukraine expects a major change
Speaker 2: in the dynamic on the battlefield this weekend. In fact,
Speaker 2: expects Russia to start using North Korean troops in combat
Speaker 2: in theater in Ukraine. And it comes against the backdrop
Speaker 2: of another headline from Vladimir Putin who says Russia is
Speaker 2: open to a quote reasonable compromise on quote, but will
Speaker 2: make no concessions to bring this war to an end.
Speaker 8: Yeah, and we just heard from Admiral John Kirby, who
Speaker 8: of course is a spokesperson with the White House, who
Speaker 8: said they do think the number of North Korean troops
Speaker 8: could number in about three thousand or more. So serious
Speaker 8: considerations to be had on the European continent right now
Speaker 8: as we look to the future of this conflict and frankly,
Speaker 8: how it could change ultimately depending on who becomes President
Speaker 8: of the United States in January. We could see very
Speaker 8: different approaches under a Kamala Harris administration or another Donald
Speaker 8: Trump administration. We understand that the differences between the two
Speaker 8: potential outcomes here have been a well discussed topic in
Speaker 8: Washington this week at the annual meetings of the IMF
Speaker 8: a World Bank, the fall meetings of that and that's
Speaker 8: where we want to go to. Now why from the
Speaker 8: IMF where we're joined by Palo Gentaloni. He is European
Speaker 8: Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Commissioner. Welcome back to
Speaker 8: Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's great to have you on
Speaker 8: Balance of Power, sir. If we could just start right
Speaker 8: there is I know that this has been talked about
Speaker 8: in Washington this week. How are you from an economic
Speaker 8: perspective considering the two outcomes here, what a Donald Trump
Speaker 8: presidency could mean economically for Europe versus a Harris one.
Speaker 6: Well, first of all, I'm talking about the European perspective,
Speaker 6: not the overall IMF meeting's perspective. On the European side,
Speaker 6: I would say the diplomatic and official answer is very clear.
Speaker 6: We will work with our American partners independently for who
Speaker 6: will win the elections. Substantially, we know that we had
Speaker 6: a very good cooperation with the Biden administration because the
Speaker 6: Biden administration was able not only to protect the American interests,
Speaker 6: but also to keep alive and even strengthen in some
Speaker 6: way the multilateral framework, which is important for US. So
Speaker 6: the fact that they decided to go back to the
Speaker 6: Parish Agreement on climate Change, the Agreement on Corporate Taxation,
Speaker 6: the WTO. So this is something that the European Union
Speaker 6: is considering very important, and this is the legacy of
Speaker 6: the buy An administration, and we hope to continue to
Speaker 6: work together with our American partners keeping the multilateral system alive.
Speaker 8: Well, so if we're talking about systems of multilateralism and
Speaker 8: multilateral trades specifically you mentioned the WTO, there are potential
Speaker 8: tariffs your greatest concern Commission, not just for direct tariffs
Speaker 8: that could be placed on European goods, but potentially just
Speaker 8: greater protectionism in general. If there is an outright trade war,
Speaker 8: for example, between the US and China, how could that
Speaker 8: by extension impact Europe.
Speaker 6: Well, I think that this is one of the real
Speaker 6: risks that our global economy is running because here in
Speaker 6: the IMF and World Bank meetings we are broadly satisfied
Speaker 6: because indeed we were able to manage the high inflation.
Speaker 6: The inflation is now under control despite a low level
Speaker 6: of growth. But if we look to the future, the
Speaker 6: risk of the fact that geopolitical tensions, trade tensions, tariffs
Speaker 6: will undermine growth and global trade is particularly strong for
Speaker 6: Europe because, of course the European Union is a big,
Speaker 6: big trade powerhouse. Our trade with the US is one
Speaker 6: point six trillion per year only goods and services, so
Speaker 6: it's a mountain that is very important for our economic
Speaker 6: welfare in the coming years. And this is the reason
Speaker 6: why we should be very careful in keeping trade open.
Speaker 6: Of course having it more secure, as we all are
Speaker 6: saying now, but secure doesn't mean protection is and closing
Speaker 6: trade well.
Speaker 8: In Europe is trying to calibrate tariff policy of its own.
Speaker 8: I understand that the Commission and China will be continuing
Speaker 8: conversations around how to avert potentially that more than thirty
Speaker 8: five percent here, if that could go into place on
Speaker 8: Chinese made evs, are you confident that can be averted?
Speaker 8: And if this does indeed come into place, what economic impact.
Speaker 8: Are you gaming out?
Speaker 6: Well, I think this is something very reasonable proportionate on
Speaker 6: our side. The reason is Chinese over capacity in this
Speaker 6: sector are also subsidies to their industries. So for us,
Speaker 6: for the European Union, it was also a learning process.
Speaker 6: We had until maybe three or four years ago, a
Speaker 6: more optimistic attitude on trade with China. Now we know
Speaker 6: that to have a level playing field we need to
Speaker 6: be much more monitoring how much subsidies are working and
Speaker 6: how several sectors are affected by overproduction. But again, having
Speaker 6: this new approach doesn't mean that we will adopt a
Speaker 6: protectionist attitude, because this is something that for the European
Speaker 6: Union is impossible to adopt. We are confident that it
Speaker 6: is possible to have a more secure but to keep
Speaker 6: trade open.
Speaker 8: And Commissioner, if we could just widen out and look
Speaker 8: at broadly the growth picture for Europe right now, how
Speaker 8: strong or weak do you think it is? And when
Speaker 8: you look at what's happening in particular countries, the slump
Speaker 8: in Germany specifically, how concerned are you about the drag
Speaker 8: that could create on the overall euro Area economy.
Speaker 6: Well, what is happening now is that we are very
Speaker 6: good in inflation. The last figure in September was one
Speaker 6: point seven, so well below our two percent target. And
Speaker 6: we all remember that only two years ago it was
Speaker 6: double digit inflation in Europe. So good for inflation. We'll
Speaker 6: see the next months, but the direction is very clear.
Speaker 6: Very good in terms of labor market, not good in
Speaker 6: terms of growth. Growth is too low. Why is growth solow? Well,
Speaker 6: we have structural problems that we have to invest in innovation, productivity,
Speaker 6: but also the international situation and the geopolitic risk we
Speaker 6: were referring to are influencing our level of growth. If
Speaker 6: you look to some countries, for example Germany, where growth
Speaker 6: is particularly law or even negative. This is also the
Speaker 6: impact of the decision that we had to take for
Speaker 6: geopolitical reasons to abandon Russian cheap gas to have a
Speaker 6: new approach with global trade, especially with China. And it
Speaker 6: is no surprise that this is affecting some European economists.
Speaker 8: All right, Commissioner, thank you so much for joining us
Speaker 8: here on Bloomberg. That is Palo Gentaloni, European Commissioner for
Speaker 8: Economic and Financial Affairs, appreciate your times are an important
Speaker 8: ending note Joe, as he points to the geopolitical considerations
Speaker 8: that are factoring into the growth picture for Europe there,
Speaker 8: namely the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
Speaker 2: That's for sure, and this is something we want to
Speaker 2: talk about with Melinda Herring from the Atlantic Council CA.
Speaker 2: We heard from Jamie Diamond on this very delicate moment
Speaker 2: in Ukraine and the potential as he sees it, for
Speaker 2: nuclear war. Let's listen to what he said earlier this
Speaker 2: week in Washington. He was speaking at the Institute for
Speaker 2: International Finance. This was just earlier this week yesterday, in fact,
Speaker 2: in the nation's capital.
Speaker 12: Here he is, we have to be quite clear, this
Speaker 12: is that we can't have a bid outcome there. You know,
Speaker 12: if you know you travel around all the you know
Speaker 12: a lot of other nations you know that border Russia
Speaker 12: they're quite worried, you know, and some that don't border
Speaker 12: Russia quite worried. And we've never had a situation where
Speaker 12: man is threatening nuclear blackmail.
Speaker 2: That's where we start our conversation with the aforementioned Melinda Herring,
Speaker 2: Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Senior Advisor for Ukraine at RASAM.
Speaker 2: It's great to see you, Melinda. Welcome back to Bloomberg
Speaker 2: TV and Radio. We have a lot of headlines that
Speaker 2: are crossing the terminal today, beginning with President Zelenski saying
Speaker 2: that he expects Russia to deploy North Korean troops inside
Speaker 2: Ukraine over the course of this weekend, in fact, as
Speaker 2: soon as Sunday, he says, possibly on Monday. How would
Speaker 2: that change the dynamic on the battlefield.
Speaker 13: Hey Jo, thanks for having me back. Look, this is
Speaker 13: a major escalation. According to the Ukrainians, they expect twelve
Speaker 13: thousand North Korean troops to be deployed on Russia side.
Speaker 13: They will be wearing Russian uniforms and they will be
Speaker 13: under the command of the Russian military. So this is
Speaker 13: a worrisome, major escalation. The South Koreans are tearing their
Speaker 13: hair out, calling the North Koreans to go home, and
Speaker 13: also saying that they may put some intelligence of muscle
Speaker 13: on the Ukrainian side as a result.
Speaker 8: Well, as we consider it the muscle on the Ukrainian side,
Speaker 8: what response would be needed to be able to adequately
Speaker 8: withstand this additional military personnel that could be used to
Speaker 8: fortify Russia's own position? Melinda, Should the US be considering
Speaker 8: other forms of aid?
Speaker 13: Thanks for that question. So it's time for the United
Speaker 13: States to take off the remaining restrictions that it's put
Speaker 13: on the long range missiles that the United States has
Speaker 13: given to Ukraine. We've tied the Ukrainians' hands behind their backs.
Speaker 13: There are many restrictions, and they're not allowed to strike
Speaker 13: deep into Russia. And it doesn't make sense why we're
Speaker 13: forcing the Ukrainians to fight this way when they now
Speaker 13: have other nations fighting on their behalf. So that would
Speaker 13: be one practical step that I would urge the US
Speaker 13: government to make. It's also time that the US government
Speaker 13: look at real security guarantees, and this would be NATO membership.
Speaker 13: That's the only thing that's going to get Ukraine out
Speaker 13: of this war, and it should be on the table now.
Speaker 2: Well Indo, The Wall Street Journal reports that Elon Musk
Speaker 2: has been speaking on the regular with Vladimir Putin, not
Speaker 2: just small talk either. Apparently. In fact, Putin asked Elon Musk,
Speaker 2: according to this report, at least which the Krumlin denies,
Speaker 2: asked Elon Musk to turn off the Starlink service over Taiwan.
Speaker 2: At one point, Bloomberg News asked Donald Trump if he's
Speaker 2: been in touch with Vladimir Putin since he left the
Speaker 2: White House. He wouldn't answer the question, but said it
Speaker 2: would be smart to do. So, what does this triangle,
Speaker 2: this telephone game between the three of them mean for
Speaker 2: the outcome in Ukraine if Donald Trump is the next.
Speaker 13: President, Joe, this is a humdinger of a story. And
Speaker 13: the first thing that I would say is that if
Speaker 13: it's true, it's a major security violation. So if an
Speaker 13: American has a top security clearance, as Elon Musk does,
Speaker 13: and he has communication, private communication with any foreign citizen,
Speaker 13: not Vladimir Putin, any Russian citizen, he has to report that. Now,
Speaker 13: if he has private communication with Vladimir Putin and he
Speaker 13: doesn't report it, he's toast. His clearance should be ended immediately.
Speaker 13: The head of NASA is calling for an investigation. But
Speaker 13: this is a major This is a major security violation.
Speaker 13: It's a major It puts US national interest at stake. Remember,
Speaker 13: Musk owns the former Twitter platform X. He also is
Speaker 13: in charge of SpaceX and he's in charge of Starlink.
Speaker 13: The US government has more than a hundred contracts with
Speaker 13: him in the last year that total three billion dollars.
Speaker 13: There's seventeen federal agencies that work with Elon Musk. So
Speaker 13: this is really shocking and it's something that needs to
Speaker 13: be looked into immediately.
Speaker 8: Melinda, we just have a minute left here, But where
Speaker 8: do you expect this conflict will be on January twentieth
Speaker 8: when a new president takes office.
Speaker 13: Kaylei, that is the money question. It all depends on
Speaker 13: who is elected. If you're looking at the race from
Speaker 13: just a Ukraine lens, the difference between the two candidates
Speaker 13: couldn't be more stark. Harris supports Ukraine full stop. Trump
Speaker 13: does not support Ukraine. In fact, he said that the
Speaker 13: war was a genius idea, and I expect him to
Speaker 13: undermine US leadership and look at ways to undermine our
Speaker 13: part in NATO as well.
Speaker 8: All Right, Melinda Harring, always great to have you here
Speaker 8: on Balance of Power. She is non resident Senior Fellow
Speaker 8: at the Atlanta Council and senior advisor at razinfor Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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