1 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:10,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Rounto with 4 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get 5 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 1: your podcasts. Watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Friday edition of Balance of Power. You 7 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 2: made it to the threshold of the weekend, and this 8 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 2: ought to be a fun one if you care about 9 00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:36,160 Speaker 2: this stuff. Maybe you're getting turned off by the celebrity, 10 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 2: but we've got a big Joe Rogan interview the podcast today. 11 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 2: Donald Trump is in Texas in Austin for that recording. 12 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 2: I suspect a few people will hear it. And he's 13 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 2: going there because well, Kamala Harris was already planning to 14 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 2: be in Texas. She's in Houston, yes, with Beyonce and 15 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 2: Willie Nelson a big rally there. Plan for tonight is 16 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 2: she tries to seize on the issue of reproductive rights abortion, 17 00:00:59,880 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 2: of course, noting Texas's abortion band. That's the backdrop for her, 18 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 2: and we're going to go cascading into a weekend of 19 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 2: showbiz and celebrity that will culminate on stage at Madison 20 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 2: Square Garden, where Donald Trump is rented out the room 21 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 2: for a million dollars, and I'm deeply curious to see 22 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 2: who shows up because this is a big battle of 23 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 2: the celebrities. 24 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 3: Right. 25 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite, 26 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 2: and on YouTube, where you can find us right now 27 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 2: by searching Bloomberg Business News Live. This is right around 28 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 2: the time when the national anxiety reaches a fever pitch. 29 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 2: People are starting to turn off newscasts, turning away from 30 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 2: the doom scroll, even though I know you're looking when 31 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 2: we're not watching. Because we have another poll today that 32 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 2: says what we already told you yesterday and what you're 33 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 2: probably feeling, and that's why the anxiety exists. It's a 34 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 2: tie yesterday Bloomberg Swing State Pole, remember forty nine forty 35 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 2: nine in the seven Swing States, not just like a 36 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 2: statistical tie, a real tie. And today it's the New 37 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 2: York Times Siana College. I remember we've talked to Don 38 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 2: Levy a lot around here, forty eight forty eight in 39 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 2: their poll, so we do have some consistency, which is 40 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 2: pretty interesting. I want to bring in Laura Davison at 41 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 2: this moment because she is feeling the collective anxiety every day. 42 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 2: This is what she does, Bloomberg Politics editor, with eleven 43 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 2: days to go, how you holding up? 44 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 4: You know we're going to be in there. We're almost 45 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 4: on a single ed you are, and you know it 46 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 4: is tighter than ever, which I think. 47 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 5: Just adds to the fun. 48 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:36,639 Speaker 2: That's right, tighter than a tube soak, As Dan rather 49 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 2: would have said, interesting to see another poll like this, right, 50 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:43,519 Speaker 2: we were just talking about the Bloomberg Morning Console poll yesterday. 51 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 2: To see an entirely different organization with a presumably different 52 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 2: sample to come to essentially the same result tells you what. 53 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 4: It tells us that this is a really really close 54 00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:57,239 Speaker 4: race and sort of what we saw over the past, 55 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 4: you know, kind of August September time period where Harris 56 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 4: was kind of steadily gaining, steadily gaining, that has really 57 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 4: tightened off as a lot of people you know, this 58 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 4: undecided have you know, finally tuned in and said, look, 59 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 4: I'm either going to you know, land on Harris's side, 60 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 4: land on Trump's side, and that there's just this teeny 61 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 4: teeny tiny sliver of people in the middle who are 62 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 4: still undecided. And that's why you see the star Power, 63 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 4: the Beyonce, the Joe Rogan. You know, the candidates are 64 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 4: going out trying to reach to people who you know, 65 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 4: do not want to listen to political news regularly. 66 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 2: Before yeah, God love him. Before we get into the 67 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 2: Star Power, does this Rogan interview, I mean, he was 68 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 2: saying nice things about RFK Junior. Does it end up 69 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 2: being an endorsement? 70 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 5: Do we know? 71 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 2: Is this going to be a challenging interview? What are 72 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 2: you expecting to come from this? 73 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 4: You know this will be a one It'll be a 74 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 4: long interview, That's what Brogan does. You know, we could 75 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 4: have you know, two or three hours of you know, 76 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 4: Trump hours with Rogan sitting down. You know, Rogan did 77 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 4: endorse RFK Junior. He or you know, sort of said 78 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 4: he supported us, and then he also said some nice 79 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 4: things about Harris after that debate. He said that, you know, Harris, 80 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 4: you know, was very polished, that she was well prepped, 81 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 4: and that Trump was failing a little bit. You know, 82 00:03:57,880 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 4: that was to remember the debate about Springfield and eat 83 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 4: the cats and dogs. You know, Rogan in the past 84 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 4: has espoused a lot of the same ideas that Trump has. 85 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 4: You know that this is very much a podcast that 86 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 4: is geared towards young men, people who are very online 87 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 4: dabbling in conspiracy theory. So this is sort of a 88 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:17,720 Speaker 4: key audience for Trump. But you know, I don't think 89 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 4: he needs necessarily the you know, explicit endorsement. He doesn't 90 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 4: need Joe Rogan to say the words I endorse you. 91 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 4: Just having him on the show and having a what 92 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:27,039 Speaker 4: will probably be a relatively friendly conversation is enough to 93 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 4: get Trump what he needs do. 94 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 2: Something whacky happened as Rogan light had joined in this 95 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 2: interview of the way he did with Elon Musk. Does 96 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 2: Elon Musk show up with him? It's in Austin, right, 97 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 2: Do they roll in there together? 98 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 6: Maybe? 99 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 4: Highly possible. Do Elon Musk is spending a lot of 100 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 4: time in Pennsylvania these days? Do you and get out 101 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:41,880 Speaker 4: the vote efforts? But expect that there will be all 102 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 4: sorts of pageantry, all sorts of you know, fun surprises. 103 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 4: This is a pas you know, because it's not really news. 104 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 4: This is entertainment. 105 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:50,359 Speaker 2: So well, thank you for saying that that's true. Okay, 106 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 2: so let's get into that for a minute, because everybody's 107 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 2: saying that Kamala Harris is surrounding yourself and Democrats tend 108 00:04:56,200 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 2: to be embraced by Hollywood. This thing last night night, 109 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,159 Speaker 2: My god, I mean, I'm just watching It's like entertainment tonight. 110 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 2: You have Bruce Springsteen out there, Tyler Perry, Samuel L. Jackson, 111 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 2: who else was speaking before, Kamala Harris. It was one 112 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,800 Speaker 2: after the other, one celeb after the other. But when 113 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:16,480 Speaker 2: you think about it, Donald Trump has quite a bit 114 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 2: of celebrity power. Beyond Hulk Hogan and Dana White, He's 115 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 2: got arguably one of the most famous people in the 116 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 2: world named Elon Musk, who's also putting tens of millions 117 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 2: of dollars into the campaign. So this is really something 118 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 2: that's being used by both sides. 119 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 1: Isn't it. 120 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 4: This This really is And you see, you know, Musk 121 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 4: is hosting his own events. You know, he was out, 122 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 4: you know, in the past several days holding all these 123 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:39,039 Speaker 4: you know events in high school auditoriums in Pennsylvania. You know, 124 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 4: we had some reporters on the ground talking to people there, 125 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:42,840 Speaker 4: and some of these folks were saying, look, I'm here 126 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 4: because I'm an Elon fan, and I because I like Musk. 127 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 4: You know, that kind of opened my eyes to Trump. 128 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 4: So this is you know, sort of a thing that works, 129 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 4: you know, in Trump's favor in many ways. You know, 130 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 4: even though he is perhaps the most well known person 131 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 4: in the world, you know, having you know, some a 132 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 4: star power, someone who kind of has seen as cool 133 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 4: as Musk is, you know, supporting him is super helpful. 134 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 2: And another forty three million I think we were reporting 135 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 2: that he's added to the kitty. 136 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 4: Here, Yes, another more than forty three million. That puts 137 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:11,720 Speaker 4: his total for you know, both Trump as well as 138 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 4: you know, Republicans down a ballot, you know, somewhere around 139 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 4: one hundred and thirty two million at least incredible, which 140 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 4: means that he goes from being basically a you know, 141 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 4: someone who doesn't donate at all to being probably he'll 142 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 4: end up on the top five for this election cycle, 143 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 4: which is huge. 144 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:26,359 Speaker 2: You wonder what happens if Donald Trump doesn't win. Elon 145 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 2: Musk go to the White House sit down. 146 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: I don't know. 147 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 2: Good luck this weekend. Deep breaths, You're doing great. We're 148 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 2: relying on you. Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics editor, Imagine being 149 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 2: charge of at this moment, the sensitive moment of all 150 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:41,159 Speaker 2: the content that's going on the terminal and on the website, 151 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 2: that's Laura, I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington and glad you're 152 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:46,359 Speaker 2: with us here as we zero in specifically on one 153 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:48,479 Speaker 2: of the swing states that we've been talking about. The seven, 154 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:53,160 Speaker 2: of course include Arizona, and it's ground zero for early 155 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 2: voting because in Arizona this is nothing new. Republicans and 156 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 2: Democrats have been doing this for me any cycles in 157 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 2: Arizona because of the heat, because of the long way 158 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 2: you have to drive, and a lot of these instances, 159 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 2: and a lot of other reasons. So we've been watching 160 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 2: very closely Republican and Democratic ballots in the states that 161 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 2: we can, and we want to zero went on Arizona 162 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 2: with an expert. Sam Almi is a Democratic political strategist 163 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 2: and head of a data at a company called Uplift. 164 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 2: I have been reading about Sam in just about every 165 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 2: major newspaper on the daily all week, because if you 166 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 2: want to know what's going on with early voting in Arizona, 167 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 2: this is who you call. Sam. Welcome to Bloomberg and 168 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 2: Balance of Power. It's great to see you give me 169 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 2: a sense because you're on the ground looking at the 170 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 2: latest numbers where we stand with the early vote in 171 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 2: Arizona today. 172 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 7: All right, thanks Joe, Right now today, I just updated 173 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 7: my numbers about fifteen minutes before I got on the show. 174 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 7: Here we're at one point two million returns statewide. That 175 00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 7: gives us a turnout of about twenty eight percent. I 176 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 7: think we're ending We're looking to end up around probably 177 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 7: seventy seven seventy six percent. How the parties break down 178 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 7: right now? We have four hundred and twenty thousand Democratic ballots, 179 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 7: five hundred thousand GOP ballots, and two hundred and seventy 180 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 7: four thousand independent ballots. 181 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 2: So give us a little historical perspective here and how 182 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 2: that compares to twenty and sixteen. Are the two parties 183 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 2: on track with what you expected? 184 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 7: Yeah, this is where it gets really interesting for a 185 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 7: little for wonks like me. Compared to twenty twenty, this 186 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:40,319 Speaker 7: looks very different for Democrats. For Republicans, they're on pace 187 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 7: with their they're a little bit ahead of their twenty 188 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 7: twenty pace. Democrats are way further behind on their twenty 189 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 7: twenty pace. They're down about nine percent in overall turnout. 190 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 7: But as we all know, twenty twenty that was. 191 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 1: A weird year. 192 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 7: If we could look back to If we look back 193 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 7: to twenty sixteen, everything's on pace. Democrats are about two 194 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 7: percent ahead in turnout of where they were same for 195 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 7: Republicans Independence, however, they're down about one percent. So it's 196 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 7: really tricky for people like me to find that right 197 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:24,439 Speaker 7: sweet spot of an election to compare to understood. 198 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:26,840 Speaker 2: So does that give us a sense then that the 199 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 2: RNC got its arms around the messaging here even as 200 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 2: Donald Trump is called early voting stupid and dangerous, or 201 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 2: does it suggest a normalizing coming out of a pandemic election. 202 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 7: This is really confounding for me too. I think early 203 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 7: in our voting periods. In the first week, we saw 204 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 7: a lot of early in person voting, which is not 205 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:52,679 Speaker 7: very popular in Arizona because as you mentioned, we've had 206 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 7: about two decades of early by male voting. It's very safe, 207 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 7: very secure. People love it, All parties use it. But 208 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 7: I think we saw some very hard partisans who are 209 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 7: very engaged on the GOP side. They are making a 210 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 7: compromise saying, Okay, I'm going to vote early, but I'm 211 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 7: not going to do it by the mail, so they 212 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 7: do it early in person. 213 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 2: Okay, that's actually really interesting color and you kind of 214 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 2: have to be there to know about this. Arizona is 215 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 2: not the only one we're watching. If you consider some 216 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:25,200 Speaker 2: of the other states that are in play here where 217 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 2: we actually have a breakdown on Democrats and Republicans, the 218 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 2: GOP is doing pretty well if you look at Nevada, 219 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 2: for instance, Sam, it's not just Arizona where we're seeing this. 220 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 2: Is this a national trend? 221 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 7: It probably is, just if you compare to twenty twenty, 222 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 7: there's a lot of anti vote by mail sentiment. Turns out, 223 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:49,679 Speaker 7: voting by mail is safe, easy, and convenient. The GOP 224 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 7: has decided to embrace that. They are on pace with 225 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 7: their twenty twenty and twenty sixteen turnout numbers. 226 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 2: Right now, the story in Arizona has been pretty fascinating. 227 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 2: And I know that we're here to talk about pulling ballots, 228 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:11,240 Speaker 2: but there are questions about ballot splitting here where you've 229 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 2: got a Senate race and a presidential campaign that just 230 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 2: don't seem to align unless Republicans are leaving something blank 231 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 2: or Democrats or deciding to vote for Donald Trump. How 232 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 2: do you rationalize the narrative right now in Arizona. 233 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 7: Yeah, that is going to be a really interesting thing 234 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 7: in twenty twenty twenty. The GOP has always had a 235 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 7: registration advantage over the Democrats. In twenty twenty it was 236 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 7: about one hundred and hundred and thirty thousand, twenty twenty sixteen, 237 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 7: it was closer to one hundred and fifty thousand. Right now, 238 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 7: the advantage for Republicans is closer to three hundred thousand ballots. 239 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:57,960 Speaker 7: So both the presidential and US Senate campaign are going 240 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:01,359 Speaker 7: to have to rely heavily on these tickets splitting Republicans 241 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,839 Speaker 7: that are that are turned off by the MAGA type 242 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 7: politics that follow You know, our former US Senator John McCain, 243 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 7: our top of the ticket campaigns are really going to 244 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 7: heavily rely on those tickets splitting Republicans, that's for sure. 245 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 2: When it comes to overall turnout, when do you start 246 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:25,640 Speaker 2: to draw conclusions, You've got I think until November first, Right, 247 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:27,840 Speaker 2: is it going to be throughout next week? By the 248 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 2: end of next week, you're going to be able to 249 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 2: take a stab at what overall turnout in this election 250 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,439 Speaker 2: will be like when you include actual election day voting. 251 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 7: Yeah, that's that's another thing. I actually looked a couple 252 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 7: days ago, and my turnout projection was was just so 253 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 7: low I didn't I had to throw it out. So 254 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:48,439 Speaker 7: I'm going to take a look probably in the next 255 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 7: couple days. I know one of our major counties, Pima County, 256 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 7: was they had a little bit of a delay in 257 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 7: sending out ballots, so their returns are about three days 258 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 7: behind where they have been in the past couple cycles. 259 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:04,680 Speaker 7: You know, I still am expecting overall turnout to be 260 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:07,520 Speaker 7: a little bit less than our eighty percent record high 261 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 7: in twenty twenty, but not any any sort of record 262 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 7: low or anything like that. 263 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 2: Sure the other we're dealing with hard numbers. Here, go ahead, 264 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:18,839 Speaker 2: Sam finished, Yeah, oh. 265 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,559 Speaker 7: Yeah, absolutely. So. One of the other things that I'm 266 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 7: very curious about is I'm comparing this I'm starting to 267 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 7: look at twenty eighteen data because that's when there was 268 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 7: the red mirage of Republicans built up a huge early 269 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 7: ballot lead, but Democrats turned out on election day where 270 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 7: they dropped off their early ballots and showed up and 271 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:41,960 Speaker 7: voted at the polls. 272 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 1: How about that? 273 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 2: You know, the question I've got to ask you that 274 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 2: you don't want to answer, is when they're going to 275 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 2: call the state of Arizona. 276 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 7: Oh, it's not going to be on November fifth. I'll 277 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 7: tell you that. I yeah, I would probably. I would 278 00:13:56,320 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 7: probably guess at probably a week later, but I'm pretty 279 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 7: conservative with that estimate. Yeah would, I wouldn't. If we 280 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 7: have results on the ninth or tenth that weekend, I'd 281 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 7: be pretty surprised. 282 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 2: And that's because of the distances involves and the time 283 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:18,959 Speaker 2: it takes to count all these early ballots. 284 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 7: Yeah. Absolutely. You know, usually at the when when the 285 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 7: polls close, there are a lot of early ballots that 286 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 7: are simply dropped off at the polls. We have about 287 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 7: half a million. We have to verify those, we have 288 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 7: to make sure that they are valid, and then we 289 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 7: count them. 290 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 2: Man, he's right in the thick of it, Sam, I 291 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 2: appreciate you taking time for us today. Sam Almi, Democratic 292 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 2: political Strategists. He's at Uplift where he's the head of 293 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 2: data and tracking the ballots as they drop. That's real 294 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 2: time stuff you'll only hear on Bloomberg. 295 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 296 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on have a CarPlay 297 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 1: and then Roynoto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can 298 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 299 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 1: York station, Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 300 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 8: A conversation we've been having for the last several days 301 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 8: about how this is a fifty to fifty election, a 302 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 8: tass up, a coin flip. We aren't sure who will win. 303 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 8: It looks like it is dead. Even Terry Haynes of 304 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 8: Pangea Policy might be slightly more sure than the rest 305 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:28,360 Speaker 8: of us, not by much, but he gives Harris sixty 306 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 8: percent odds of winning, Donald Trump forty percent, and Terry 307 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 8: is with us now here on Bloomberg TV, Got It 308 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 8: and radio. So Terry provide the justification here what everyone's saying. 309 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 8: Fifty to fifty, don't trust your gut. We can't call this, 310 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:43,600 Speaker 8: No one credibly can. Why do you see it as 311 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 8: more likely that Harris pulls this out at this point? 312 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 5: Well, well, one of the first things I ever learned 313 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 5: about markets, many years ago, was that fifty to fifty 314 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 5: is no call at all, And if you're in a 315 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 5: calling business, you better make at all. And you know, 316 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 5: likely you know for what or ill you know? I'm 317 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 5: in the call business, So you know, in a true 318 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 5: fifty to fifty race, you've got to move to the intangibles, 319 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 5: and I think Harris has the better argument. She's got 320 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 5: I think a better get out the vote, turnout machine. 321 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 5: I think there's higher voter enthusiasm for her. I think 322 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 5: she's had greater message discipline that enables people to be voters, 323 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 5: to be motivated, you know, and that that's on both 324 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 5: social issues I think and Trump loathing. There's this kind 325 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:31,359 Speaker 5: of tabula rasa appeal about Harris I think has diminished 326 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 5: some recently when she gets specific about issues, but that's 327 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 5: been out there, and frankly, there's a lack of serious 328 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 5: policy difference between the two candidates. It's not as if 329 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 5: we're talking about, you know, whether the federal government ought 330 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 5: to be involved in providing health care or not. It's 331 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 5: a matter of shade gradations and you know, so there's 332 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 5: there's nothing that's kind of a big issue that's going 333 00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 5: to turn the public on or off other than the 334 00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 5: social issues I already mentioned. So I think at the 335 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 5: end of the day, she gets the better of it. 336 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 5: But you know, I've got Trump at forty percent and 337 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 5: he can still surprise the upside. But I do think 338 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 5: that there's a very hard ceiling that's been demonstrated all 339 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 5: year with Trump. 340 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 2: I know your ears were burning when I was talking 341 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 2: about you on the air earlier this week, Terry, because 342 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:22,439 Speaker 2: you have the note of the moment. Drunks leaning on 343 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 2: lamp posts, of course, invoking the great Vinn Scully quote. 344 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 2: Statistics are used much as a drunk uses a lamp post, 345 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 2: this great old saying for support, not illumination. With that said, 346 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 2: everybody's given us a gut check now, and we have 347 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 2: a couple of other factors here. Nate Silver, by the way, 348 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 2: in a guest essay in The New York Times, says 349 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 2: his gut points to Trump, and he points to shy 350 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 2: voter theory, non response bias, the undersampling of Donald Trump. 351 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 2: He's got potentially some things going in his favor, too, 352 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:56,399 Speaker 2: doesn't he. 353 00:17:57,760 --> 00:17:59,639 Speaker 5: Yeah, Yeah, there's I mean, look, there's a lot of 354 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:03,399 Speaker 5: different shades to this, and you know any one of 355 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 5: them can can surprise. You know, my threshold issue on 356 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 5: this all along and people talk about issue issue issue. 357 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 5: The threshold issue is is is the credibility of Harris 358 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 5: as a president. That's an issue for good or ill 359 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:20,360 Speaker 5: that Trump doesn't have as much because he actually has 360 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 5: been a president. So you know, you have your own 361 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 5: opinion about that, but it's the credibility of Harris, and 362 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 5: you know she's going to continue to hammer that in 363 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,480 Speaker 5: in two ways. One by continuing to make the case 364 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 5: for herself. That's what this Ellipse visit is about next 365 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 5: week rally. And secondly, you know she's going to continue 366 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 5: to make the case that Trump has disqualified himself for 367 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 5: a variety of reasons. And and you know she hangs 368 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 5: her hat on that because that everything else flows from that. 369 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 5: If you think if you as a voter, I think 370 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 5: Harris isn't qualified or as anything else, then you know 371 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 5: you make a different choice. But if Harris and Trump 372 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 5: are both in the conversation, Harris is more so than you. 373 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 5: She's passed the first and most important test and she's 374 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 5: got the likely or ability I think to convince about her. 375 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 8: So let's talk about convincing the financial markets, Terry, because 376 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:15,919 Speaker 8: there was a lot of conversation this week about what 377 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,680 Speaker 8: we were seeing in the bond markets, specifically a selloff 378 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 8: pressure upward on yields, and a lot of people were 379 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,679 Speaker 8: pointing to fiscal policy. Concerned forget about what the Federal 380 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,239 Speaker 8: Reserve is doing for a second, when you look at 381 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,719 Speaker 8: the policy proposals that both of them have put forward 382 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:32,639 Speaker 8: during this campaign, perhaps that is something that is a 383 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 8: little frightening to the bond market at this time. What 384 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:38,160 Speaker 8: do you see as actual reality that the market should 385 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 8: be paying attention to. How worried should they be about 386 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 8: fiscal discipline or lack thereof? But from both of these candidates, 387 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 8: regardless of who wins the presidency, but considering who might 388 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:50,360 Speaker 8: win control of Congress. 389 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 5: Well, they're absolutely right to be hugely concerned about the candidates, 390 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 5: and not just because they went through this whole Oprah 391 00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 5: phase of their campaigns where they were promised lots of 392 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 5: things to lots of people. Markets once every four years, 393 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,640 Speaker 5: markets forget what they know the other three years, which 394 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 5: is that it's really the Congress that's more important to 395 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 5: the policy equation than the president. And you know, so 396 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 5: what markets always do, when analysts always do, is they 397 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,399 Speaker 5: put out these you know, baskets of stocks, Trump baskets 398 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 5: and Harris baskets and how this is going to how 399 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 5: this is going to affect The assumption is wrong though. 400 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,400 Speaker 5: The assumption is somehow that the president provides a gravitational 401 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 5: pull when in fact, it's much more of the opposite. 402 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 5: You get a situation where, you know, twenty seventeen tax 403 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,359 Speaker 5: law is a perfect example of this. Trump and A 404 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 5: and all Republican Congress made it possible, but the all 405 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 5: Republican Congress, you know, decided how low the rates could be, 406 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:50,360 Speaker 5: decided the specifics, all the rest. Trump was essentially limited 407 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 5: to details and making sure you got the thing assigned. 408 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 5: Anybody that doubts that Congress is more important than the 409 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 5: president when it comes to the vast majority of economic 410 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,440 Speaker 5: policies has only to ask Jimmy Carter how energy policy went, 411 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,480 Speaker 5: how George W. Bush, asked George W. Bush how Social 412 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 5: Security went, or asked Obama about pretty much anything after 413 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 5: twenty ten when he couldn't get anything through thanks to 414 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 5: the makeup of Congress, so including a lot of trade 415 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 5: laws and trade treaties. So Congress, the makeup of Congress 416 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 5: here is more important for policy. And the makeup of 417 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 5: Congress is about seventy percent likely to be a tiny 418 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:30,360 Speaker 5: Democratic majority in the House and a tiny Republican majority 419 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 5: in the Senate. That guarantees a lot of things, but 420 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 5: one is that there's not going to be any serious 421 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,879 Speaker 5: action on fiscal debt and deficit going forward. 422 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 2: That seems to be true. Is that how you're looking 423 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,159 Speaker 2: at the results on the Hill. I know we're going 424 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,560 Speaker 2: to be waiting a while probably to find out about 425 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,399 Speaker 2: the House, but the conventional wisdom seems to be pretty 426 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,679 Speaker 2: consistent here, Terry tough map for Democrats in the Senate 427 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,240 Speaker 2: and a likely pickup to have a speaker HACKEM. Jeffreyes. 428 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 5: Well, yeah, I think so. The you know, the path 429 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,399 Speaker 5: for Democrats in the House has been evident and likely 430 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,160 Speaker 5: since the day after the election in twenty twenty two. 431 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,679 Speaker 5: They need to pick up some seats they lost to 432 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 5: Republicans in largely blue states New York and California, and 433 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 5: they're likelier than not to do that. At the same time, 434 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 5: you got a Senate map that where you have seven 435 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 5: or eight competitive races on the Democratic side, all of 436 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 5: which they have to sweep to maintain a majority. Are 437 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 5: they likely to do that? I've never been likely to 438 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 5: do that, and now it's apparent that they probably won't. 439 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 5: Is you know, I'll give you thirty percent that one 440 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 5: or both of those is wrong, but those are by 441 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:42,600 Speaker 5: far the likeliest results. So what you get on that 442 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 5: I think is post election, you get negative fiscal debt 443 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 5: and deficit. You get negative on tax since Democrats won't 444 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 5: want to ratify an extension of the twenty seventeen tax law. 445 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:58,200 Speaker 5: I think you get negatives on tariffs because I think 446 00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 5: what markets don't understand is tariffs are not only you know, 447 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,680 Speaker 5: part of the policy in both parties now, but they're 448 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 5: going to get bigger because of national security concerns, which 449 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 5: both both candidacies are talking about. And I think you're 450 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:16,199 Speaker 5: positive for defense and defense industrial base frankly, so you 451 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 5: know that's what they're going to be looking at going forward. 452 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:22,200 Speaker 5: It's a mistake to think that whatever it's just being 453 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 5: discussed today is what's going to be discussed after the election. 454 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:29,159 Speaker 8: Terry, we've got thirty seconds left you Michigan consumer sentiment 455 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 8: hit a six month high in data today. What political 456 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 8: signal does that send? 457 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:35,919 Speaker 5: I think it doesn't send much of anything. You've got 458 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,879 Speaker 5: a situation where the vast majority of voters are baked 459 00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:43,359 Speaker 5: in number one, generally on who they like. Secondly, they're 460 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 5: baked in on how they feel about the economy already. 461 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:50,440 Speaker 5: You know, if you're if you're a Western Pennsylvania and 462 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,879 Speaker 5: it's severely affected by high prices. You're not going to 463 00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:56,359 Speaker 5: magically feel better in the last month or so. 464 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,119 Speaker 2: The line to remember from Terry's note I meant and 465 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 2: investors are wise to keep the full salt shaker on 466 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 2: hand from Pangaea Policy. Good to see you, Terry Haynes. 467 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg TV and Radio. 468 00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:17,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 469 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 470 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 1: Proud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 471 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:28,240 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 472 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,439 Speaker 8: The home stretch of this election cycle, with just eleven 473 00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,119 Speaker 8: days to go until election Day, which means it is 474 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 8: closing arguments time. We've been running through many of the 475 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,399 Speaker 8: closing arguments we've seen from these two presidential campaigns here 476 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:43,919 Speaker 8: on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio for 477 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 8: the last several days. But to reiterate for Kamala Harris, 478 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,200 Speaker 8: in part it focuses on reproductive rates that will be 479 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 8: highlighted in her visit to Texas Today with Beyonce. She's 480 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 8: focusing on the issue of abortion in a state which 481 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 8: has very restrictive policies in that regard. But she also 482 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,760 Speaker 8: was in Georgia yesterday. Former President Barack Obama was there 483 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,360 Speaker 8: rallying with her, and she was focusing on the other 484 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 8: closing message that we have seen her reiterate time and 485 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 8: again that Donald Trump is unfit for office and a 486 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 8: danger to democracy. 487 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:20,199 Speaker 9: Someone who suggests we should terminate the Constitution of the 488 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 9: United States of America should never again stand behind the 489 00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 9: seal of the President of the United States of America. 490 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 2: Let's assemble our signature panel here on the Friday edition 491 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 2: to Ballants of Power Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democratic analyst, 492 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:46,160 Speaker 2: and political science professor at Iona University, joined by Rick Davis, 493 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 2: of course, Republican strategist partner at Stone Court Capital. So 494 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,440 Speaker 2: here's the way. The closing arguments, at least the bumper 495 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:56,200 Speaker 2: sticker versions are boiling down. And we talked to Jim 496 00:25:56,240 --> 00:26:01,359 Speaker 2: Messina about this right around this time yesterday. For Kamala Harris, 497 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,520 Speaker 2: she has a to do list. He has an enemy 498 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 2: list for Donald Trump. It's she broke it, Trump can 499 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 2: fix it, which one resonates Rick. 500 00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:16,880 Speaker 10: Look, I mean, if you take a look at how 501 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 10: people feel about the direction of the country, you know, 502 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 10: significantly negative. We've been talking about the consumer sentiment index 503 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 10: well lower than a party in power wants to see 504 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:31,199 Speaker 10: it going into an election. They broke it, He's going 505 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 10: to fix it. Is a very compelling argument. I suspect 506 00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 10: he'd be doing even better in this election if he 507 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 10: would not go into these various controversial places he's been 508 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:43,479 Speaker 10: and just said that over and over, this would not 509 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:44,359 Speaker 10: be a close election. 510 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 8: And yet it is one Genie. So it raises the 511 00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 8: question of how effective Harris's closing argument actually is. If 512 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 8: this is making if she is making it too much 513 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:58,120 Speaker 8: about him and not enough about her, does she need 514 00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 8: to course correct on that, including tonight in Texas. 515 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:05,879 Speaker 11: No, I don't think so. I think it is an 516 00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:09,880 Speaker 11: effective message because it resonates with what she has been 517 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,919 Speaker 11: trying to tell these voters out there, which is that 518 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 11: Donald Trump is all about himself. Just listen to him, 519 00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:19,399 Speaker 11: just watch him go to his rallies, and I am 520 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,919 Speaker 11: about you. I'm going to be working for you. So 521 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,439 Speaker 11: I think as a message it works. I do think 522 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 11: her event tonight is really important. She starts the year 523 00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:33,040 Speaker 11: on abortion and reproductive healths. She's going to end it there. 524 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 11: And as we look at these polls that are coming 525 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:39,119 Speaker 11: out just in the last few days, abortion is a 526 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:42,640 Speaker 11: winning issue for her. And Texas of course has one 527 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 11: of the most restrictive abortion laws, not even an exception 528 00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:49,480 Speaker 11: for rape or incest, only an exception for the life 529 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 11: of the mother. And of course they have been focusing 530 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:55,520 Speaker 11: on women and men who want children and who have 531 00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,479 Speaker 11: not been able to get the healthcare they need because 532 00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:03,359 Speaker 11: down there are scared there facing ninety nine years in jail. 533 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:06,440 Speaker 11: So it's an effective strategy. And of course she's got 534 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:08,560 Speaker 11: the Queen Bee down there with her. How could she lose. 535 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:11,200 Speaker 2: That's a fair point. 536 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:11,600 Speaker 1: Rick. 537 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,639 Speaker 2: We talked earlier in the program with a man named 538 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:18,200 Speaker 2: Sam Almi. You might know him as, of course, a 539 00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,120 Speaker 2: veteran of Arizona politics, although he's a Democrat, and he's 540 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 2: been monitoring the early vote, specifically counting ballots here for 541 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,720 Speaker 2: D's and RS. We have an important story on the 542 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,640 Speaker 2: terminal and you've talked to us about this before. Right now, 543 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:37,679 Speaker 2: more registered Republicans have voted in Arizona, Nevada, and North 544 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 2: Carolina than Democrats have. This is public data. This is 545 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 2: not something we're speculating on. It's not a poll, and 546 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,840 Speaker 2: so what does it mean for the final outcome in 547 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 2: this election? 548 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:47,720 Speaker 6: Rick? 549 00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, some of. 550 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,280 Speaker 10: Those places like Arizona that you mentioned have a long 551 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 10: history of Republicans voting early by turning an air ballot 552 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,120 Speaker 10: or by mail. So that's not a surprise, and I 553 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,920 Speaker 10: think you know that was born out by your guest earlier. 554 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:06,520 Speaker 10: And Republican registrations are up in a lot of these places, 555 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 10: so you just have a larger pool of voters to 556 00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 10: pull from than we did four years ago. That being said, 557 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:20,520 Speaker 10: you do see big, disparaging, big desperate numbers in places 558 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:25,160 Speaker 10: like Pennsylvania and specifically around the Coller counties of Philadelphia, 559 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 10: where I think the election in Pennsylvania will be decided. 560 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 10: And in those places, Democrats are voting at a higher 561 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 10: frequency with bigger margins than they had before. And in 562 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,720 Speaker 10: places like Bucks County, you really wonder how many of 563 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:42,400 Speaker 10: those could be Republicans voting for Kamala Harris since that's 564 00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:45,680 Speaker 10: been the focus of her efforts there. So you know, 565 00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 10: it's just like the polling, the early vote is a 566 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 10: mixed bag. If you want to take a partisan point 567 00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:54,520 Speaker 10: of view on it, you can make a case very 568 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:58,719 Speaker 10: easily for Democrats doing better or Republicans doing better. It 569 00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 10: just depends upon which state you think you're going to win. 570 00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:04,160 Speaker 8: But Rick, if we consider the fact that, well, we 571 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,400 Speaker 8: don't know who Republicans are voting for, Republicans are showing 572 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 8: out up to vote, despite some of the rhetoric we 573 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 8: have heard from Donald Trump about that as a as 574 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,480 Speaker 8: a voting method, He's called it stupid at one point 575 00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 8: during this cycle. This is the RNC who has kind 576 00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:20,480 Speaker 8: of forced this to happen. Right, For all of the 577 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 8: conversation we've had here on balance of power over the 578 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 8: course of the last many many months about how Donald 579 00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,680 Speaker 8: Trump is not necessarily a candidate you can discipline the campaign. 580 00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,400 Speaker 8: The RNC can only control this so much. They have 581 00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,640 Speaker 8: been able to control this in some sense. 582 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 10: What does that say, Yeah, I'm not sure it's the 583 00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:41,720 Speaker 10: rn C controlling this. The reality is Arizona again, good example, right, 584 00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:47,120 Speaker 10: Republicans voting at a higher level, higher levels of registration. 585 00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:49,040 Speaker 10: The rn C has not been on the ground in 586 00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 10: Arizona doing any of that. There's a very small get 587 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,120 Speaker 10: out to vote operation in Arizona, a fraction of which 588 00:30:55,160 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 10: would be normal compared to previous presidential elections. 589 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:00,360 Speaker 3: Cycle. 590 00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,000 Speaker 10: So look, I mean, you know, and when you look 591 00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 10: at how these voting patterns are changing, all of these 592 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,240 Speaker 10: early voting patterns are different than in twenty twenty two, 593 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:15,719 Speaker 10: which were significantly different than in twenty twenty. So is 594 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:17,760 Speaker 10: what are we comparing it to? Are we comparing it 595 00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:20,000 Speaker 10: to the twenty two get out the vote efforts in 596 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,920 Speaker 10: early voting which actually look a lot more like what's 597 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 10: happening today than in twenty twenty or twenty sixteen. So look, 598 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,160 Speaker 10: we've talked a lot about how this is a replay 599 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,640 Speaker 10: of the twenty twenty elections when Biden and Trump were 600 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,600 Speaker 10: in but the reality is it's a unique election and 601 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,640 Speaker 10: it's performing differently than any previous presidential election. 602 00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,800 Speaker 2: Really fascinating as well when you consider, well both campaigns 603 00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:45,640 Speaker 2: want us to be talking about today, we've already gone there. 604 00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,920 Speaker 2: Kamala Harris going to be talking about reproductive rights, yep, 605 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:52,760 Speaker 2: Beyonce by her side in Texas. Donald Trump is going 606 00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:54,760 Speaker 2: to be sitting down with Joe Rogan. They're doing the 607 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 2: podcast this afternoon. I suspect a lot of people Genie 608 00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 2: are going to watch and to hear it. And when 609 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 2: you look at the gender gap in this campaign. We've 610 00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,560 Speaker 2: spent some time on this men versus women. It's underscored 611 00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:08,360 Speaker 2: again in the Siena College, New York Times Pool. Harris 612 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,920 Speaker 2: leads Trump among women fifty four to forty two percent. 613 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:17,120 Speaker 2: Trump leads Harris among men fifty five to forty one percent. 614 00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 2: What they're doing today is not going to change this. 615 00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:23,720 Speaker 2: It might actually make it worse. Geenie, what do you think? 616 00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,760 Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean, it really shows you. They're both in Texas. 617 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,280 Speaker 11: I don't think we'd ever have thought that. Eleven days 618 00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,680 Speaker 11: to go, they find themselves in a state where Donald 619 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,200 Speaker 11: Trump's definitely going to win. But it is in part 620 00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:38,520 Speaker 11: because of these issues that appeal to their supporters. For 621 00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:42,600 Speaker 11: Donald Trump, that's immigration, For you know, obviously Kamala Harris, 622 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,600 Speaker 11: that's abortion, and of course Donald Trump is down there 623 00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:48,240 Speaker 11: to talk to Joe Rogan. I think the last time 624 00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:50,760 Speaker 11: I checked, he has like one hundred and ninety million 625 00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 11: downloads a day on his or maybe it's a month. 626 00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:57,720 Speaker 11: It's got to be a month right on his podcast, 627 00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 11: and it's just incredible number lots of those young men. 628 00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:06,080 Speaker 11: And I just am so fascinated by this interview because she's, 629 00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,680 Speaker 11: you know, not that far away. Does she like go 630 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,600 Speaker 11: out and you know, stalk them. I don't know. Does 631 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,360 Speaker 11: Elon Musk show up and light up like he's done 632 00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 11: with Joe Rogan in the past. So much can go 633 00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,640 Speaker 11: wrong with this interview, and it's gonna be like typical 634 00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:23,239 Speaker 11: Joe Rogan three hours. So I'm fascinated by it, and 635 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:26,240 Speaker 11: I really hope that Kamala Harris surprises us with one 636 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,800 Speaker 11: of her own on Joe Rogan. But so far we. 637 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,760 Speaker 8: Don't get that well. Speaking of a following Elon Musk 638 00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:35,120 Speaker 8: cause and two hundred and two million followers on X 639 00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:38,600 Speaker 8: the platform of course that he owns. He also, according 640 00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:41,880 Speaker 8: to new reporting from The Wall Street Journal that hit yesterday, 641 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,560 Speaker 8: has been in communication with Russian President Vladimir Putin, just 642 00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:48,200 Speaker 8: as we also have questions about Donald Trump's own communication 643 00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:52,120 Speaker 8: with Putin since he left the White House, remembering Bob 644 00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:55,240 Speaker 8: Woodward's new book that suggests they had spoken on multiple 645 00:33:55,680 --> 00:34:00,000 Speaker 8: occasions since Trump was president. Remember our Bloomberg editor chief 646 00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:03,520 Speaker 8: John Micklelthwaite asked Trump directly about this, and this is 647 00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:04,000 Speaker 8: how it went. 648 00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:05,280 Speaker 1: Well. 649 00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:07,080 Speaker 3: I don't comment on that, but I will tell you 650 00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,640 Speaker 3: that if I did, it's a smart thing. If I'm 651 00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,720 Speaker 3: friendly with people. If I have a relationship with people, 652 00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,080 Speaker 3: that's a good thing, not a bit thing in terms 653 00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:18,319 Speaker 3: of a country. He's got two thousand nuclear weapons, and 654 00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,279 Speaker 3: so do we. China has a lot less, but they'll 655 00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:22,680 Speaker 3: catch us within five years. 656 00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:25,400 Speaker 8: Genie, we've got a minute left here. Even if Donald 657 00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:29,400 Speaker 8: Trump isn't directly communicating with Putin privately, what would it 658 00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:31,600 Speaker 8: say if Elon Musk, who has been so who has 659 00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:35,239 Speaker 8: become so close to him and his campaign is doing so. 660 00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:40,520 Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean, I think it just reinvigorates the conversation 661 00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 11: which is really important about Donald Trump's relationship with Vladimir Putin. 662 00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,440 Speaker 11: And you know, you listen to Donald Trump in that interview, 663 00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:49,800 Speaker 11: and what does he say, Oh, it's important to be 664 00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:55,080 Speaker 11: friendly with everybody, especially somebody who has this many nuclear weapons. 665 00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,560 Speaker 11: The reality is the United States has a president right now. 666 00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:03,480 Speaker 11: Former presidents don't talk to autocratic leaders of other nations 667 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:07,000 Speaker 11: without going through the government at least, it's not good form. 668 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:09,359 Speaker 11: And so the fact that he may have done that, 669 00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:12,640 Speaker 11: and his number one donor apparently may be doing it 670 00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:16,040 Speaker 11: as well, is deeply, deeply concerning to the security of 671 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:17,000 Speaker 11: the United States. 672 00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,000 Speaker 8: All Right, Geenie, Shanzino of the Center for the Study 673 00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,919 Speaker 8: of the Presidency and Congress, alongside Rick Davis of stone 674 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,000 Speaker 8: Court Capital. Both of them Bloomberg Politics contributors, are always 675 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:29,439 Speaker 8: closing us out on every single Friday. Thank you both 676 00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:31,800 Speaker 8: so much for being here. Joe, We're going to continue 677 00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:36,200 Speaker 8: the conversation around Vladimir Putin and his ongoing war with Ukraine. 678 00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,920 Speaker 8: Coming up next is Melinda Herring will be joining us 679 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:40,080 Speaker 8: from the Atlanta Council. 680 00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,359 Speaker 2: I can only imagine what went through her mind when 681 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,360 Speaker 2: she heard about this. By the way, the head of NASA, 682 00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,600 Speaker 2: Bill Nelson, talking to Semaphore about this just a short 683 00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:54,000 Speaker 2: time ago, Kaylee says, if true, the Pentagon and NASA 684 00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 2: would be concerned and it should be investigated. We'll have 685 00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:58,320 Speaker 2: a lot more on this coming. 686 00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:00,319 Speaker 8: Up, indeed, we will so stay with us here on 687 00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:03,320 Speaker 8: Balance of Power Live from both Washington and New York today. 688 00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:11,040 Speaker 8: Right here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 689 00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,239 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ken 690 00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:15,480 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 691 00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,080 Speaker 1: roun Oo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also 692 00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:21,720 Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York Station, 693 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:27,719 Speaker 1: just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 694 00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,040 Speaker 2: Turning our attention to geopolitics and a story that is 695 00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:33,520 Speaker 2: impossible to separate from the presidential election that's of course 696 00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,880 Speaker 2: underway right now here. We've heard from President Zelensky Kaylei, 697 00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,239 Speaker 2: following up on a story that we discussed earlier this 698 00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:45,880 Speaker 2: week with Ambassador James Jeffrey. Ukraine expects a major change 699 00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,600 Speaker 2: in the dynamic on the battlefield this weekend. In fact, 700 00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:52,840 Speaker 2: expects Russia to start using North Korean troops in combat 701 00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:56,760 Speaker 2: in theater in Ukraine. And it comes against the backdrop 702 00:36:56,800 --> 00:37:00,200 Speaker 2: of another headline from Vladimir Putin who says Russia is 703 00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:03,399 Speaker 2: open to a quote reasonable compromise on quote, but will 704 00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:05,799 Speaker 2: make no concessions to bring this war to an end. 705 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,000 Speaker 8: Yeah, and we just heard from Admiral John Kirby, who 706 00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,480 Speaker 8: of course is a spokesperson with the White House, who 707 00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,000 Speaker 8: said they do think the number of North Korean troops 708 00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:17,040 Speaker 8: could number in about three thousand or more. So serious 709 00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:19,719 Speaker 8: considerations to be had on the European continent right now 710 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,040 Speaker 8: as we look to the future of this conflict and frankly, 711 00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:26,160 Speaker 8: how it could change ultimately depending on who becomes President 712 00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:29,000 Speaker 8: of the United States in January. We could see very 713 00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:33,520 Speaker 8: different approaches under a Kamala Harris administration or another Donald 714 00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:37,359 Speaker 8: Trump administration. We understand that the differences between the two 715 00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:41,000 Speaker 8: potential outcomes here have been a well discussed topic in 716 00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,520 Speaker 8: Washington this week at the annual meetings of the IMF 717 00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,080 Speaker 8: a World Bank, the fall meetings of that and that's 718 00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:47,719 Speaker 8: where we want to go to. Now why from the 719 00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:50,320 Speaker 8: IMF where we're joined by Palo Gentaloni. He is European 720 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:54,920 Speaker 8: Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Commissioner. Welcome back to 721 00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:57,719 Speaker 8: Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's great to have you on 722 00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:00,279 Speaker 8: Balance of Power, sir. If we could just start right 723 00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:02,400 Speaker 8: there is I know that this has been talked about 724 00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,759 Speaker 8: in Washington this week. How are you from an economic 725 00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:10,360 Speaker 8: perspective considering the two outcomes here, what a Donald Trump 726 00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:16,040 Speaker 8: presidency could mean economically for Europe versus a Harris one. 727 00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:21,879 Speaker 6: Well, first of all, I'm talking about the European perspective, 728 00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:26,880 Speaker 6: not the overall IMF meeting's perspective. On the European side, 729 00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:32,920 Speaker 6: I would say the diplomatic and official answer is very clear. 730 00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:38,359 Speaker 6: We will work with our American partners independently for who 731 00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:43,399 Speaker 6: will win the elections. Substantially, we know that we had 732 00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:48,440 Speaker 6: a very good cooperation with the Biden administration because the 733 00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:52,800 Speaker 6: Biden administration was able not only to protect the American interests, 734 00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:56,239 Speaker 6: but also to keep alive and even strengthen in some 735 00:38:56,400 --> 00:39:02,719 Speaker 6: way the multilateral framework, which is important for US. So 736 00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:05,680 Speaker 6: the fact that they decided to go back to the 737 00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:10,120 Speaker 6: Parish Agreement on climate Change, the Agreement on Corporate Taxation, 738 00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:15,920 Speaker 6: the WTO. So this is something that the European Union 739 00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:22,040 Speaker 6: is considering very important, and this is the legacy of 740 00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:25,440 Speaker 6: the buy An administration, and we hope to continue to 741 00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:31,320 Speaker 6: work together with our American partners keeping the multilateral system alive. 742 00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:35,480 Speaker 8: Well, so if we're talking about systems of multilateralism and 743 00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:40,040 Speaker 8: multilateral trades specifically you mentioned the WTO, there are potential 744 00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:44,000 Speaker 8: tariffs your greatest concern Commission, not just for direct tariffs 745 00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,480 Speaker 8: that could be placed on European goods, but potentially just 746 00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:52,000 Speaker 8: greater protectionism in general. If there is an outright trade war, 747 00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:54,600 Speaker 8: for example, between the US and China, how could that 748 00:39:54,880 --> 00:40:00,120 Speaker 8: by extension impact Europe. 749 00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:03,120 Speaker 6: Well, I think that this is one of the real 750 00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:07,719 Speaker 6: risks that our global economy is running because here in 751 00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:12,880 Speaker 6: the IMF and World Bank meetings we are broadly satisfied 752 00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:18,719 Speaker 6: because indeed we were able to manage the high inflation. 753 00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:23,120 Speaker 6: The inflation is now under control despite a low level 754 00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:27,239 Speaker 6: of growth. But if we look to the future, the 755 00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:34,480 Speaker 6: risk of the fact that geopolitical tensions, trade tensions, tariffs 756 00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:42,239 Speaker 6: will undermine growth and global trade is particularly strong for 757 00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:47,000 Speaker 6: Europe because, of course the European Union is a big, 758 00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:52,160 Speaker 6: big trade powerhouse. Our trade with the US is one 759 00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:57,960 Speaker 6: point six trillion per year only goods and services, so 760 00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:02,400 Speaker 6: it's a mountain that is very important for our economic 761 00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:05,360 Speaker 6: welfare in the coming years. And this is the reason 762 00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:10,160 Speaker 6: why we should be very careful in keeping trade open. 763 00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,640 Speaker 6: Of course having it more secure, as we all are 764 00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:19,320 Speaker 6: saying now, but secure doesn't mean protection is and closing 765 00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:20,480 Speaker 6: trade well. 766 00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:22,839 Speaker 8: In Europe is trying to calibrate tariff policy of its own. 767 00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:26,400 Speaker 8: I understand that the Commission and China will be continuing 768 00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:30,000 Speaker 8: conversations around how to avert potentially that more than thirty 769 00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:32,440 Speaker 8: five percent here, if that could go into place on 770 00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:36,040 Speaker 8: Chinese made evs, are you confident that can be averted? 771 00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:39,760 Speaker 8: And if this does indeed come into place, what economic impact. 772 00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:40,719 Speaker 8: Are you gaming out? 773 00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:50,840 Speaker 6: Well, I think this is something very reasonable proportionate on 774 00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:56,920 Speaker 6: our side. The reason is Chinese over capacity in this 775 00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:03,600 Speaker 6: sector are also subsidies to their industries. So for us, 776 00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:08,680 Speaker 6: for the European Union, it was also a learning process. 777 00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:13,480 Speaker 6: We had until maybe three or four years ago, a 778 00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:19,719 Speaker 6: more optimistic attitude on trade with China. Now we know 779 00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:22,719 Speaker 6: that to have a level playing field we need to 780 00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:28,759 Speaker 6: be much more monitoring how much subsidies are working and 781 00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:35,840 Speaker 6: how several sectors are affected by overproduction. But again, having 782 00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:40,640 Speaker 6: this new approach doesn't mean that we will adopt a 783 00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:45,000 Speaker 6: protectionist attitude, because this is something that for the European 784 00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:49,880 Speaker 6: Union is impossible to adopt. We are confident that it 785 00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:52,920 Speaker 6: is possible to have a more secure but to keep 786 00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:54,600 Speaker 6: trade open. 787 00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:57,560 Speaker 8: And Commissioner, if we could just widen out and look 788 00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:00,920 Speaker 8: at broadly the growth picture for Europe right now, how 789 00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:03,239 Speaker 8: strong or weak do you think it is? And when 790 00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,000 Speaker 8: you look at what's happening in particular countries, the slump 791 00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:09,000 Speaker 8: in Germany specifically, how concerned are you about the drag 792 00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:14,040 Speaker 8: that could create on the overall euro Area economy. 793 00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:19,680 Speaker 6: Well, what is happening now is that we are very 794 00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:24,000 Speaker 6: good in inflation. The last figure in September was one 795 00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:28,799 Speaker 6: point seven, so well below our two percent target. And 796 00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:31,360 Speaker 6: we all remember that only two years ago it was 797 00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:36,560 Speaker 6: double digit inflation in Europe. So good for inflation. We'll 798 00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,600 Speaker 6: see the next months, but the direction is very clear. 799 00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,600 Speaker 6: Very good in terms of labor market, not good in 800 00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:48,279 Speaker 6: terms of growth. Growth is too low. Why is growth solow? Well, 801 00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:54,600 Speaker 6: we have structural problems that we have to invest in innovation, productivity, 802 00:43:55,239 --> 00:44:00,600 Speaker 6: but also the international situation and the geopolitic risk we 803 00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:05,160 Speaker 6: were referring to are influencing our level of growth. If 804 00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:10,280 Speaker 6: you look to some countries, for example Germany, where growth 805 00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:16,080 Speaker 6: is particularly law or even negative. This is also the 806 00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:19,200 Speaker 6: impact of the decision that we had to take for 807 00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:26,040 Speaker 6: geopolitical reasons to abandon Russian cheap gas to have a 808 00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:31,040 Speaker 6: new approach with global trade, especially with China. And it 809 00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:35,160 Speaker 6: is no surprise that this is affecting some European economists. 810 00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:37,440 Speaker 8: All right, Commissioner, thank you so much for joining us 811 00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:40,840 Speaker 8: here on Bloomberg. That is Palo Gentaloni, European Commissioner for 812 00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:44,680 Speaker 8: Economic and Financial Affairs, appreciate your times are an important 813 00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:47,879 Speaker 8: ending note Joe, as he points to the geopolitical considerations 814 00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:50,600 Speaker 8: that are factoring into the growth picture for Europe there, 815 00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:54,200 Speaker 8: namely the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. 816 00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:56,799 Speaker 2: That's for sure, and this is something we want to 817 00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,880 Speaker 2: talk about with Melinda Herring from the Atlantic Council CA. 818 00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:03,880 Speaker 2: We heard from Jamie Diamond on this very delicate moment 819 00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:07,279 Speaker 2: in Ukraine and the potential as he sees it, for 820 00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:09,799 Speaker 2: nuclear war. Let's listen to what he said earlier this 821 00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,160 Speaker 2: week in Washington. He was speaking at the Institute for 822 00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:17,680 Speaker 2: International Finance. This was just earlier this week yesterday, in fact, 823 00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:18,720 Speaker 2: in the nation's capital. 824 00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:21,239 Speaker 12: Here he is, we have to be quite clear, this 825 00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:24,239 Speaker 12: is that we can't have a bid outcome there. You know, 826 00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:26,759 Speaker 12: if you know you travel around all the you know 827 00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:29,880 Speaker 12: a lot of other nations you know that border Russia 828 00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:32,479 Speaker 12: they're quite worried, you know, and some that don't border 829 00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:34,879 Speaker 12: Russia quite worried. And we've never had a situation where 830 00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:36,400 Speaker 12: man is threatening nuclear blackmail. 831 00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:42,240 Speaker 2: That's where we start our conversation with the aforementioned Melinda Herring, 832 00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:46,840 Speaker 2: Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Senior Advisor for Ukraine at RASAM. 833 00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:49,560 Speaker 2: It's great to see you, Melinda. Welcome back to Bloomberg 834 00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:52,319 Speaker 2: TV and Radio. We have a lot of headlines that 835 00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:56,520 Speaker 2: are crossing the terminal today, beginning with President Zelenski saying 836 00:45:56,520 --> 00:46:00,920 Speaker 2: that he expects Russia to deploy North Korean troops inside 837 00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:04,080 Speaker 2: Ukraine over the course of this weekend, in fact, as 838 00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:07,399 Speaker 2: soon as Sunday, he says, possibly on Monday. How would 839 00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:09,960 Speaker 2: that change the dynamic on the battlefield. 840 00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:12,799 Speaker 13: Hey Jo, thanks for having me back. Look, this is 841 00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:16,800 Speaker 13: a major escalation. According to the Ukrainians, they expect twelve 842 00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:21,480 Speaker 13: thousand North Korean troops to be deployed on Russia side. 843 00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:23,520 Speaker 13: They will be wearing Russian uniforms and they will be 844 00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:27,480 Speaker 13: under the command of the Russian military. So this is 845 00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:31,080 Speaker 13: a worrisome, major escalation. The South Koreans are tearing their 846 00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:34,920 Speaker 13: hair out, calling the North Koreans to go home, and 847 00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:38,080 Speaker 13: also saying that they may put some intelligence of muscle 848 00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:39,800 Speaker 13: on the Ukrainian side as a result. 849 00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:44,080 Speaker 8: Well, as we consider it the muscle on the Ukrainian side, 850 00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:48,160 Speaker 8: what response would be needed to be able to adequately 851 00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:52,200 Speaker 8: withstand this additional military personnel that could be used to 852 00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:56,279 Speaker 8: fortify Russia's own position? Melinda, Should the US be considering 853 00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:57,919 Speaker 8: other forms of aid? 854 00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:01,880 Speaker 13: Thanks for that question. So it's time for the United 855 00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:05,040 Speaker 13: States to take off the remaining restrictions that it's put 856 00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:08,480 Speaker 13: on the long range missiles that the United States has 857 00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:12,520 Speaker 13: given to Ukraine. We've tied the Ukrainians' hands behind their backs. 858 00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:15,120 Speaker 13: There are many restrictions, and they're not allowed to strike 859 00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:19,600 Speaker 13: deep into Russia. And it doesn't make sense why we're 860 00:47:19,640 --> 00:47:22,759 Speaker 13: forcing the Ukrainians to fight this way when they now 861 00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:26,200 Speaker 13: have other nations fighting on their behalf. So that would 862 00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:29,120 Speaker 13: be one practical step that I would urge the US 863 00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:31,800 Speaker 13: government to make. It's also time that the US government 864 00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:35,560 Speaker 13: look at real security guarantees, and this would be NATO membership. 865 00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:38,120 Speaker 13: That's the only thing that's going to get Ukraine out 866 00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:40,680 Speaker 13: of this war, and it should be on the table now. 867 00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:44,080 Speaker 2: Well Indo, The Wall Street Journal reports that Elon Musk 868 00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:48,239 Speaker 2: has been speaking on the regular with Vladimir Putin, not 869 00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:52,759 Speaker 2: just small talk either. Apparently. In fact, Putin asked Elon Musk, 870 00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:55,520 Speaker 2: according to this report, at least which the Krumlin denies, 871 00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:59,320 Speaker 2: asked Elon Musk to turn off the Starlink service over Taiwan. 872 00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:02,839 Speaker 2: At one point, Bloomberg News asked Donald Trump if he's 873 00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:05,440 Speaker 2: been in touch with Vladimir Putin since he left the 874 00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:07,640 Speaker 2: White House. He wouldn't answer the question, but said it 875 00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:10,719 Speaker 2: would be smart to do. So, what does this triangle, 876 00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,640 Speaker 2: this telephone game between the three of them mean for 877 00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:16,200 Speaker 2: the outcome in Ukraine if Donald Trump is the next. 878 00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:19,600 Speaker 13: President, Joe, this is a humdinger of a story. And 879 00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:21,719 Speaker 13: the first thing that I would say is that if 880 00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:25,920 Speaker 13: it's true, it's a major security violation. So if an 881 00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:30,600 Speaker 13: American has a top security clearance, as Elon Musk does, 882 00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:34,800 Speaker 13: and he has communication, private communication with any foreign citizen, 883 00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:38,680 Speaker 13: not Vladimir Putin, any Russian citizen, he has to report that. Now, 884 00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:41,799 Speaker 13: if he has private communication with Vladimir Putin and he 885 00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:45,520 Speaker 13: doesn't report it, he's toast. His clearance should be ended immediately. 886 00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:48,360 Speaker 13: The head of NASA is calling for an investigation. But 887 00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:51,480 Speaker 13: this is a major This is a major security violation. 888 00:48:51,719 --> 00:48:56,000 Speaker 13: It's a major It puts US national interest at stake. Remember, 889 00:48:56,080 --> 00:49:00,920 Speaker 13: Musk owns the former Twitter platform X. He also is 890 00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:04,640 Speaker 13: in charge of SpaceX and he's in charge of Starlink. 891 00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:07,560 Speaker 13: The US government has more than a hundred contracts with 892 00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:10,800 Speaker 13: him in the last year that total three billion dollars. 893 00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:14,640 Speaker 13: There's seventeen federal agencies that work with Elon Musk. So 894 00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:17,840 Speaker 13: this is really shocking and it's something that needs to 895 00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:19,080 Speaker 13: be looked into immediately. 896 00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:21,480 Speaker 8: Melinda, we just have a minute left here, But where 897 00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:24,720 Speaker 8: do you expect this conflict will be on January twentieth 898 00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:26,600 Speaker 8: when a new president takes office. 899 00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:30,640 Speaker 13: Kaylei, that is the money question. It all depends on 900 00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:34,560 Speaker 13: who is elected. If you're looking at the race from 901 00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:37,280 Speaker 13: just a Ukraine lens, the difference between the two candidates 902 00:49:37,280 --> 00:49:41,560 Speaker 13: couldn't be more stark. Harris supports Ukraine full stop. Trump 903 00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:44,239 Speaker 13: does not support Ukraine. In fact, he said that the 904 00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:47,680 Speaker 13: war was a genius idea, and I expect him to 905 00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:51,520 Speaker 13: undermine US leadership and look at ways to undermine our 906 00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:53,320 Speaker 13: part in NATO as well. 907 00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:56,200 Speaker 8: All Right, Melinda Harring, always great to have you here 908 00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:58,880 Speaker 8: on Balance of Power. She is non resident Senior Fellow 909 00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:05,160 Speaker 8: at the Atlanta Council and senior advisor at razinfor Ukraine. 910 00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:10,400 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 911 00:50:10,440 --> 00:50:13,400 Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 912 00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:16,080 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 913 00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:19,839 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at 914 00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:21,080 Speaker 2: bloomberg dot com.