1 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:03,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting pros PGA Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 2: I'm Pat Fitzmorris, joined as always by Paul mcbrair. 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:10,280 Speaker 1: Paul, on last week's show, you touted a multi sport parlay. 4 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 1: You've got it yourself. You hit it. Care to share 5 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: the details with our audience? 6 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 3: Well, just a little rewind is I get to the 7 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 3: show early in the week where I'm looking for value 8 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:25,759 Speaker 3: with Scotti Scheffler, which is never an easy task, and 9 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 3: I had to ask myself, is Scotty Scheffler going to 10 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 3: win this tournament? And I said to myself probably. Then 11 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:33,240 Speaker 3: I look at the odds and it says plus two 12 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 3: seventy five was the best line I could find. That's 13 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:38,960 Speaker 3: not acceptable. I want to win some money, So I 14 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,319 Speaker 3: decided to look at other parlay legs that I might 15 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:45,600 Speaker 3: feel confident enough to throw in with a Scotty outright. 16 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 3: So I was able to parlay a Scotty outright win 17 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 3: with the Patriots money line and the Seahawks minus two 18 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 3: and a half. Since I felt both of those teams 19 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 3: would win, I didn't know how much the Patriots would 20 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 3: win by a good thing. I didn't bet the spread 21 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 3: because they did not cover the spread and then I 22 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 3: was pretty sure the Seahawks would win by more than 23 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:10,039 Speaker 3: a field goal, so I was I took that for 24 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:12,639 Speaker 3: a little bit of an odds boost and my twenty 25 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 3: dollars bet when Scottie Patriots Seahawks one by four, that 26 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:21,680 Speaker 3: turned my twenty bucks into one hundred and ninety four dollars. 27 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 3: So kudos to me for a fun, creative bet that 28 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 3: just so happened to hit. 29 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:31,680 Speaker 2: Hey, and we might have another chance to do that 30 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 2: next week with the Super Bowl and the Phoenix Waste 31 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 2: Management Open. 32 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: Always some fun typically. 33 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:38,039 Speaker 3: The weekend I do it. 34 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, they do put together some fun blended props or 35 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 2: parlays there. So and also Bo, today we were talking 36 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 2: a little bit backstage about this week and you said, 37 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 2: I am really excited about having a big boy tournament, 38 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 2: and we're getting one this week, at least a big 39 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 2: boy venue. I don't know how good the field is. 40 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 2: Weird that yeah, it's not bad. It's weird that you 41 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 2: get a better MX field than you would get for 42 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 2: the Farmers Insurance Open. Butts, that's where the PGA tour 43 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 2: is headed to the southern California coast for the Farmers 44 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 2: Insurance Open. We'll give you a full betting preview in 45 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 2: just a moment, but first, a very quick recap of 46 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 2: last week's tournament, The American Express. Scotti Scheffler wins by 47 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 2: four shots. He opened with a sixty three in a 48 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:31,239 Speaker 2: sixty four in his first two rounds to pretty much 49 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 2: ensure that he would contend. His third round sixty eight, 50 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:36,920 Speaker 2: dropped in one shot behind seawew Kim going into the 51 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 2: final round, who I had bats while I was under 52 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 2: no illusion seawock Kim was going to win and the 53 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 2: final group with Scotty. Scotty was tied with eighteen year 54 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 2: old Blades Brown, who had a good look at a 55 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 2: birdie putt for a fifty nine in his Friday round 56 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 2: but couldn't get it to drop. 57 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 1: Seawoo Kim shot an even par seventy two. 58 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 2: On Sunday, Blades Brown shot at two over par seventy four. 59 00:02:57,919 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 2: Scotty blew them both out of the water with a 60 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 2: final around sixty six to win a drama free cake walk. 61 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 2: Scotty just put on a clinic Sunday, stuffing a bunch 62 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 2: of his approach shots within four or five feet of 63 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 2: the hole. He saw a great player on top of 64 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 2: his game, He finished twenty seven under par Jason Day, 65 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 2: Ryan Gerard, Matt McCarty, and Andrew Putnam all finished tied 66 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,239 Speaker 2: for second four shots back bow. 67 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 1: Your thoughts on the NX. 68 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:27,920 Speaker 3: Other than the Scotti parlay, I didn't really have a 69 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 3: lot of success. I had some top ten money come 70 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 3: in on Ryan Gerard because that was I found end 71 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 3: up finding a decent odds on his top ten, so 72 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 3: that was okay. The rest of my guys just didn't 73 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 3: have quite enough. I was a little too chicken admittedly 74 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 3: to tout Blades Brown last week, even though he did 75 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 3: pop in my model top ten in my model last week, 76 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 3: and I just couldn't get my I couldn't get the 77 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 3: gumption to say his name on the show. And I mean, 78 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:01,559 Speaker 3: he looked impressive. I didn't think he would have enough experience, 79 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 3: honestly to win that tournament. But now we're on notice 80 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 3: if it's not an overly huge golf course that he 81 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 3: has above average clubhead speed, so he's not going to 82 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 3: be overwhelmed by a longer course. But this is the 83 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 3: kind of the American Express with those three easy courses, 84 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 3: with a guy coming off Corn Fairy Tour, with all 85 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,720 Speaker 3: the success he's had as a high school aged teenager. 86 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 3: He's really good guys, and that sixty he shot on 87 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 3: Friday really stood out to me. And the fact that 88 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 3: now I can say his name pretty confidently if he 89 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 3: pops in my model, I'm not going to be apprehensive 90 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 3: saying Blades Brown, because the kid is for real. He's 91 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 3: a real deal player and he just went out there 92 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 3: and lit that course up and it was fun to watch. 93 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 3: And he's eighteen years old. He looks like a timeless veteran. 94 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 3: These kids are to keep getting better, more athletic, more 95 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 3: savvy around these golf courses. It's not like the olden 96 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 3: days where it would take a while for some guys 97 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 3: to get their footing on the PGA Tour. With the 98 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 3: big boy courses, that learning curve is much shorter than 99 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:05,599 Speaker 3: it ever was. 100 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,719 Speaker 2: Blades Brown has wanted to watch for sure. Gorgeous swing 101 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 2: and a cool name. 102 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's going to be around for it. 103 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 3: I don't think his dad played cavity backs. Let's just 104 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 3: say that. 105 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 2: Let's turn to the Farmers Insurance Open at Tory Pines 106 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,280 Speaker 2: in La Jolla, California. There are one hundred and forty 107 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 2: seven players in the field and a lot of the 108 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:29,799 Speaker 2: big names are skipping this one, including Scottie Scheffler after 109 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 2: his win last week. For the second straight week, we 110 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 2: have a multi course tournament. Players will alternate between Tory 111 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 2: Pines North and Tory Pines South on the first two days. 112 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 2: They will play the South course exclusively on the weekend, 113 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 2: and that's the much tougher course. It's an iconic course 114 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 2: that's hosted majors before. The North Course, a relative pushover, 115 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 2: typically plays about two shots easier than the South course, 116 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 2: although if I recall correctly, there wasn't as big a 117 00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 2: disparity between the two courses last year because the North 118 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 2: course seem to get more wind on one of the 119 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 2: first two days I think it was Friday. Then the 120 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:09,160 Speaker 2: South course was getting played unusually difficult. The North course 121 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:12,360 Speaker 2: is of par seventy two that measures seventy two hundred 122 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 2: and fifty eight yards, plays easy because of the par fives. 123 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 1: Which are all very reachable. 124 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 2: The longest of the par fives is five hundred and 125 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 2: fifty six yards. The other three are five hundred and 126 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 2: thirty six yards are shorter. 127 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: Par threes are a little tougher. 128 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,839 Speaker 2: On the North course, all four two hundred yards are longer, 129 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:32,799 Speaker 2: and they are three par fours shorter than four hundred yards, 130 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 2: two of them under three hundred and fifty yards and 131 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:38,719 Speaker 2: potentially drivable. If you want to win the Farmers Insurance Open, 132 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:42,239 Speaker 2: you had best shoot in the sixties for your round 133 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:45,480 Speaker 2: on the Tory Pines North Course. Now, the South Course 134 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 2: is a par seventy two that weighs in at a 135 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 2: hefty seventy seven hundred and sixty five yards, making it 136 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 2: the longest course the PGA Tour pros will play all season. 137 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 2: Aside from the Majors, it's one of the most demanding 138 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 2: driving courses on tour now. Obviously, distance off the tee 139 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 2: is a big advantage of the course this long, but 140 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:09,479 Speaker 2: accuracy matters too, because Tory Pines South has some of 141 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 2: the narrowest fairways on the tour. 142 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 1: Now they're not. 143 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 2: There are a lot of long power fours, so a 144 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 2: lot of the approach shots are going to come from 145 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 2: middle and long iron distance. The greens at Tory Pines 146 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 2: are poea anua and poe greens can roll inconsistently at times. 147 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 2: I believe Tory Pines South has been one of the 148 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 2: hardest courses on tour in these strokes gained putting category. 149 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 2: If you miss these greens, it can be hard to 150 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 2: get up and down because of the rough around the. 151 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 1: Greens, it can be pretty thick. Now. 152 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 2: The defending Farmers Open Farmers Insurance Open champion is Harris English. 153 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 2: He survived some tough conditions last year finished minus eight, 154 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 2: one shot ahead of Sam Stevens. Matthew Pavaan won the 155 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 2: Farmer's Insurance Open in twenty twenty four, finishing thirteen under 156 00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 2: par to beat Nikolai Hoyguard by one stroke. Homo won 157 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three, luc List one in twenty twenty two, 158 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:05,239 Speaker 2: beating will. 159 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 1: Zala Taurus in a playoff. 160 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 2: The weather forecast for this week's events looks pretty agreeable. 161 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 2: Temperatures in the low seventies, plenty of sun, almost no 162 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 2: wind and without wind. The winning score is probably not 163 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 2: going to be eight under par again bow like it 164 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 2: was last year. Probably more like thirteen fifteen under. What 165 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 2: categories are you zeroing in on this week at the 166 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 2: Farmer's Insurance Opens. 167 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 3: It's really a whole bag golf course. And I said 168 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 3: backstage before the show that it's a big boy event, 169 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 3: a big boy golf course for at least three of 170 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 3: the days, and that's just really it tells me that 171 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 3: I need to focus more on the macro view ball 172 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,839 Speaker 3: striking statistics in general. If I do drill down, it's 173 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 3: going to be on proximity on approach shots over two 174 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 3: hundred yards, which there are many, many approach shots over 175 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 3: two hundred yards on this golf course. More than two 176 00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:00,559 Speaker 3: thirds of the approach shots on these driving hole are 177 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:02,199 Speaker 3: going to be more than two hundred yards away, some 178 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 3: of them even two hundred and fifty yards away because 179 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:07,839 Speaker 3: of the length of the south course, So two hundred 180 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:12,320 Speaker 3: plus proximity overall ball striking. If I'm looking at strokes 181 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 3: gained on approach in general, I like the strokes gained 182 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 3: off the t metric, but I also prefer good drives gained. 183 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,320 Speaker 3: That's another good one for this course because it's a 184 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 3: combination of distance and accuracy, and where the strokes gained 185 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 3: metric weirdly just kind of tells you what kind of 186 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 3: position they're in for their approach after the drive. I 187 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 3: like to use both of those just to kind of 188 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 3: get a sense for okay on a tougher golf course. 189 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 3: I'm going to filter for more difficult scoring relative to 190 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 3: par as well, that's really what it comes down to. 191 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 3: I'm not really kind of over picking the stats in 192 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 3: this week because we have a pretty evenly spaced field. 193 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 3: When it comes down to it, with no Scotty, no Rory, 194 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 3: you're looking at a bunch of guys that are not 195 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:00,839 Speaker 3: really that much different in town level. It's going to 196 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 3: come down to who plays better for four days at 197 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 3: a really cool venue. And of course the weather's gonna 198 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 3: be perfect. It's in San Diego. 199 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, no kidding, Well, it was pretty breezy last year. 200 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 2: There was some less than ideal. 201 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:16,599 Speaker 3: But character squalls. 202 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:18,559 Speaker 1: Yes, definitely. 203 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 2: Do you look at bogey avoidance in this tournament with 204 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,719 Speaker 2: like we saw Harris English grind his. 205 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 1: Way to a victory last year. 206 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 2: I mean, that guy just kept making par after par 207 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 2: after par, getting a few bogies at opportune times. 208 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 1: But is that a key category for you? 209 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 3: Not necessarily a key category, it's definitely involved. Bogey avoidance 210 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 3: and scrambling are always going to be important stats at 211 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,080 Speaker 3: any event, especially when it's not one of the resort 212 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 3: courses that's going to be a birdie fest, any non 213 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:54,679 Speaker 3: birdi fest. You're looking at including those metrics. I think 214 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 3: Harris English's performance last year happened to be because he's 215 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 3: a great wind player and the wind popped up. Nobody 216 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 3: really expected that, and so those grinders like him and 217 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 3: Kirk Kittiyama and some of the guys that who really 218 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 3: just don't aren't phased by windy conditions on tough golf courses, 219 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 3: those are the kinds of guys that can rise up 220 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,560 Speaker 3: if the weather is a lot like that. Right now, 221 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,080 Speaker 3: I'm just looking at those straight up categories, see where 222 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:23,080 Speaker 3: people are falling, and then just kind of going with 223 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 3: my gut for the tie breakers because this is a 224 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 3: very evenly matched field. I'll keep saying that throughout the show. 225 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 2: Now we will get to the odds for the Farmer's 226 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 2: Insurance Open in just a moment, But first. 227 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 3: Track your bets, stay accountable and level up by downloading 228 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 3: the Betting Pros app. With Sportsbook Sync, you can automatically 229 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 3: track your bets across all major sports books in one spot. 230 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 3: Easily monitor your bet performance by sport and bet type, 231 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:55,720 Speaker 3: including game picks, props, and parlays. Create your own custom 232 00:11:55,760 --> 00:12:00,120 Speaker 3: betting systems to find winning trends and profitable opportunities. New 233 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:03,439 Speaker 3: users can get six months of Betting Pro's Premium free 234 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:06,199 Speaker 3: with your first deposit and wager at one of our 235 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 3: partner sportsbooks. Learn more at bettingpros dot com slash Premium. 236 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 2: Let's get to the odds for the farmers. Xander Schaffley 237 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 2: is the favorite. He was plus fourteen point fifty at 238 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 2: last check, defending Champ Ludvig Oberg is seventeen to one, 239 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:24,599 Speaker 2: Cameron Young eighteen to one, Patrick Cantley twenty two and 240 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 2: a half to one, Sewu Kim twenty four to one, 241 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 2: Jj Sphond twenty five to one, Chris Goddrup and Hideki 242 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 2: Matsuyama are twenty nine to one. Maverick McNeely, Jason Dane 243 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:39,160 Speaker 2: Harris English are thirty one to one, Alex Norrin thirty 244 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 2: six to one, Keegan Bradley thirty seven to one, and 245 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 2: Taylor Pendrith thirty eight to one. Do you like any 246 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:46,120 Speaker 2: of these guys? 247 00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:46,560 Speaker 1: Bo I? 248 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 3: Do I like Xander Schoffley. He's number one in my model. 249 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 3: I think it's interesting some of the books are going 250 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 3: to these single digits instead of increments of five. That's 251 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 3: actually helpful because it allows for less movement during the week. 252 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 3: I think that's why they do it, because we got 253 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:04,440 Speaker 3: We're gonna get a little bit less of an edge, 254 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 3: but it's also gonna be a little more predictable with 255 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 3: the odds in one increments instead of five. Xander Schaffley's 256 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 3: odds are fine. It's double digits for a favorite. That's 257 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 3: always nice. What concerns me is this is a very 258 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 3: tough place to put at, even if you're a good 259 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 3: Poeana putter. He's one hundred and third in putting in 260 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:29,120 Speaker 3: this field. He's also ninety second in proximity and approach 261 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 3: over two hundred yards. That is ugly. The rest of 262 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 3: these stats are beautiful, top five and top ten everywhere 263 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 3: else besides those two stats. So I like Xander Schaffley. 264 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:46,680 Speaker 3: I love Ludwig Oberg. He is the match made for 265 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:50,679 Speaker 3: this course so perfectly. He's just an amazing driver of 266 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 3: the golf ball, great ball striker, great long iron player, 267 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 3: and his prowess off the tn on approach kind of 268 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 3: covers up his seam weakest area, which is the short game, 269 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 3: most notably plutting. But he's still fortieth in this field 270 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 3: out of one hundred and fifty in putting. So I'm 271 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 3: not worried Aboutludwig Oberg in any category where there's a 272 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,960 Speaker 3: couple of very important categories where I do wonder if 273 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 3: Xanderschoffley is going to be the right guy to pick 274 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 3: this week. I have no concern about Ludwig Oberg. He 275 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 3: is next. This is a very confident bet on Ludwig 276 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 3: Oberg at plus seventeen fifty this week. 277 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 2: Now let me hit you with a few bots for 278 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 2: both of these guys. So Andrew Schaffley, He's had three 279 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 2: top ten finishes in his last five trips to Torry Pines, 280 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 2: one of which was a ninth place finish at the 281 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 2: twenty twenty one US Open, and he was second at 282 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 2: the Farmers in twenty twenty one. But does it bother 283 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:45,960 Speaker 2: you at all that he has not played competitive golf 284 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 2: since I think the week after the Ryder Cup the 285 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 2: Bay Current Classic in Japan, although he did win that tournament. 286 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, he should win that tournament. I am concerned. He's 287 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 3: typically a guy. Last year he had an injury that 288 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 3: made his early season really start rocky, and then it 289 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 3: took him a while to get into playing shape. Honestly, 290 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 3: that's I'm not worried about that as much as just 291 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 3: playing rusty at a golf course. This is the first 292 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 3: time you're playing competitive golf this calendar year, and it's 293 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 3: a it's at the Farmers. That's a real rust killer 294 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 3: if you're coming in not completely ready body right. I'm 295 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 3: a little concerned there, and so it goes to show 296 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 3: that I'm just not as confident in Shaftley as I 297 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 3: am an Oberg, even though Oberg's not hasn't been the 298 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 3: healthiest guy in the world. 299 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the bought with Oberg. So yes, he won 300 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 2: here last year. They played the Genesis Invitational a Tory 301 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:44,240 Speaker 2: Pines last year because Riviera they couldn't play there because 302 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 2: of the fires in Southern California, so they played at 303 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 2: Tory Pines. Oberg won there, but something about the Southern 304 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 2: California climate doesn't agree with him. Bawl. He's from the 305 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 2: AMX last week due to illness. 306 00:15:59,080 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 3: Whether it's two. 307 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:00,120 Speaker 1: Nice I. 308 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 2: Like it was not one of those manufactured illnesses where 309 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 2: he was playing poorly. He was nine under par through 310 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 2: the first two rounds when he withdrew. And oddly enough, 311 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 2: Obert got sick at this event last year and had 312 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:17,040 Speaker 2: a really tough weekend when he was just obviously not 313 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 2: in very good shape and route to finishing forty seconds. 314 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,000 Speaker 1: So does the illness bother you at all? 315 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 3: It would if he was coming into the week still sick. 316 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 3: I did a little bit of digging today and found 317 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 3: that it was more of just like it was an 318 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 3: exhaustion type thing where he was he was sick and 319 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 3: he could still play, but he was getting tired and 320 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 3: he didn't think he could keep playing at that level 321 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 3: for the rest of the week. I think he's back 322 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 3: to one hundred percent this week, but who knows. Maybe 323 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 3: so cow weather just isn't agreeable for the young Swede's 324 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 3: he's a great player, and I hope he's one hundred 325 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 3: percent because this is the perfect opportunity for him to 326 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 3: really make a big name for himself in twenty twenty six. 327 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 2: Now, just couple notes on some of the other guys 328 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 2: with short odds. Cameron Young terrific off the tee. He's 329 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 2: certainly got the driver to win here, but he's missed 330 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:09,880 Speaker 2: the cut in three of his last four trips to 331 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 2: Tory Pines. 332 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 1: No short, no short game. 333 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 2: And our guy see with kim Bo not on a 334 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 2: pete Die Course this week, but he has been in 335 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 2: really good form eleventh at the Sony, sixth at the AMX, 336 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 2: and he's had some top twenty fives at Tory Pines, 337 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 2: although he hasn't really seriously contended here. Hideki Matsuyama generally 338 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,440 Speaker 2: plays pretty well at Tory Pines. It's a good enough 339 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,439 Speaker 2: ball striker to win here. We just haven't seen Hideki 340 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 2: in peak form for a while. Then there's Jason Day 341 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,880 Speaker 2: coming off the second place finish at the MX. Won 342 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 2: the Farmers Insurance Open in twenty eighteen and has posted 343 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 2: three top tens at the Farmers since that win. Also 344 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:51,120 Speaker 2: always seems to do really well at Pebble. Just maybe 345 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:52,200 Speaker 2: a good POA. 346 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 1: Potter, Jason Diz. All Right, so let's look at some 347 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:56,919 Speaker 1: of the mid range option. 348 00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 2: We've got Jake Knapp at forty to one, Adam Scott 349 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 2: four forty three to one, Michael Thorbe, Bjornsen is forty 350 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 2: four to one. Ryan Gerard and Rasmus Hoygard are forty 351 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,400 Speaker 2: four to one, Sam Stevens forty six to one, Max 352 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 2: Hillman Wyndam Clark forty seven to one. Brooks Keepka in 353 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 2: his return to the PGA Tour is fifty to one. 354 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:20,200 Speaker 2: Will zalatoris fifty two to one, Justin Rose fifty three 355 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 2: to one, Marco penge is fifty four to one, Garrik 356 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:28,400 Speaker 2: Kigo fifty five to one, Rasmus Niegard Peterson fifty six 357 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 2: to one, Matt McCarty fifty seven to one, and Thorburn, 358 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 2: Olison and Aaron Ry are fifty nine to one. How 359 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,080 Speaker 2: about this group, BO, Is there anyone you like here? 360 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:42,719 Speaker 3: This group is loaded with guys I love. Yeah. So 361 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:45,640 Speaker 3: I have one, two, three, four guys in the strange 362 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,159 Speaker 3: starting with Ryan Gerard playing out of his mind to 363 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 3: start this season. We kind of got glimpses of that 364 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 3: towards the tail end of last year with his win 365 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 3: at the Barracuda, which I was in attendance for. Really 366 00:18:56,080 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 3: nice guy, really good golfer, very very focused golfer. He's 367 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 3: playing extremely well right now and this is another course 368 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 3: that fits him. You don't think of Ryan Gerrard on 369 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 3: tougher golf courses, but when it comes to birdier, better percentage, 370 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 3: he's number one in this field. And I've been talking 371 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,119 Speaker 3: about proximity on approach over two hundred yards. He's number 372 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,160 Speaker 3: one in this field. In those two categories, He's top 373 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 3: five and strokes gained teda green, top five strokes gained 374 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 3: on approach. He's not the best putter in the world, 375 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:29,399 Speaker 3: but everything else is pointing to Ryan Gerard paying off 376 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 3: at his odds. I got him at forty three to one, 377 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 3: and let's say I'm confident about Ryan Gerard. I am 378 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 3: ecstatic to have brooks Kopka back on the PGA Tour, 379 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 3: and I'm even more ecstatic to get him opening up 380 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:43,320 Speaker 3: at fifty three to one is where I got him, 381 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 3: and this is a miss price. This is a top 382 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 3: five talented golfer in the world on a golf course 383 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 3: that fits him very well. He's one of the best 384 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 3: ball strikers I've ever watched play, and he's got a 385 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 3: really decent short game. He had last year was not 386 00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:01,159 Speaker 3: the best at avoiding bogies. He's a veryggressive player, but 387 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 3: he also matches that with a pretty good scrambling game. Ironically, 388 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:09,440 Speaker 3: he makes bogies just from making mistakes, but when he's 389 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 3: in position he can score. And brooks Keopka fifty three 390 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 3: to one, I'm doing a full ladder on him outright. 391 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 3: Top five, top ten, this is this is this is 392 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 3: gonna be a welcome back kind of moment weekend for 393 00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 3: Brooks Kopka. I'm excited for that. Two other guys that 394 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 3: you already mentioned, one or both of them Garrett, hego Lefty, 395 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,400 Speaker 3: South African. He's coming at fifty eight to one. This 396 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 3: is your this is your rising star twenty twenty six 397 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,360 Speaker 3: market right now. Garrett Keego is gonna win not one, 398 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 3: but twice this season. He's that He's very talented, very good, 399 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 3: well rounded player. Came in very high in my model 400 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 3: number seven overall and no stat worse than middle of 401 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 3: the pack here, so very very good putter and a 402 00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,359 Speaker 3: great ball striker to boot fifth in this in this 403 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,200 Speaker 3: field avoiding bogies. That's what we like to see from 404 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 3: a young player especially, is a really good plan in 405 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 3: his head. And then on the opposite end of the spectrum, 406 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 3: a young gun with a lot of firepower. Maybe not 407 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 3: the most restraint, but we've seen him take on challenging 408 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:18,360 Speaker 3: golf courses already in his young career. Marco Pine sixty 409 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:22,880 Speaker 3: three to one is where I got him. Marco PINNs bomber, bomber, bomber, 410 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 3: light the he could light the South course up, that's 411 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 3: how good he is if he's on. 412 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, I cannot wait to see him make his PJA 413 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:32,400 Speaker 2: Tour debut. 414 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 1: He's gonna be I mean. 415 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 3: He's just fund so much fun to watch Marco Pinch play. 416 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, he can drill out. Another guy, Jake Knapp can 417 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,920 Speaker 2: hammer it. Finished third in his Farmer's debut in twenty 418 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,439 Speaker 2: twenty four. He was seventeenth and thirty second in the 419 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 2: two tournaments at Tory Pines last year. We know he's 420 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 2: long enough off the tee. I'm just not sure forty 421 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:53,880 Speaker 2: to one is the right price for him. 422 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 3: Especially when he's not the best at tougher golf courses. 423 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 3: We've seen him dominate on easier courses with where they 424 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 3: require good driving in length. He's good at that, but 425 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 3: he kind of tops out at that top ten level 426 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 3: when it comes to Tory Pines and other courses of 427 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 3: this caliber. 428 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, they're Sam Stevens who's played well at Tory Pines. 429 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 2: He was second at the Farmers last year, sixth at 430 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 2: the Amex last week, so he's in good form. Max Homa, 431 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:20,960 Speaker 2: how do you feel about him? Bo he's won at 432 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 2: Tory Pines. Does he have his game back in shape 433 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:27,119 Speaker 2: after a disappointing twenty twenty five season. I mean, he 434 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 2: did finish fourth at the AMX last week. Are you 435 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 2: sold yet or still kind of in wait and see 436 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 2: mode with He was a. 437 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,280 Speaker 3: Guy I walked with at the Bearcuda last year when 438 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,239 Speaker 3: I was I was very interested to see what kind 439 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 3: of mental state he was in, what kind of shape 440 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,159 Speaker 3: his game is in. And I think that was about 441 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:44,960 Speaker 3: the time where he started to turn it around, where 442 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 3: he could start to see his confidence comeback. Some of 443 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 3: these guys, the talent's always there, but sometimes they go 444 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 3: through it, sometimes a year or two long slump where 445 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 3: their mental game is that with the physical game, and 446 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,159 Speaker 3: then the physical game suffers because they don't believe in 447 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,119 Speaker 3: their their form. I think we're going to see a 448 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 3: bounce back from Maxhoma. I just don't know if it's 449 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,200 Speaker 3: going to be here. Even though he's a returning champion 450 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 3: from the past, I think he's still going to have 451 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,360 Speaker 3: to keep building back to where he was a few 452 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 3: years ago. I don't know that I'm wanting to bet 453 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,159 Speaker 3: on him quite yet. He might be the kind of 454 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 3: guy I look at at Pebble Beach. In a couple 455 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,640 Speaker 3: of weeks because those are the kinds of courses where 456 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 3: he can really use his strengths to his advantage. 457 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,959 Speaker 2: Speaking of Pebble Beach, I'm kind of intrigued by Wyndham 458 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,080 Speaker 2: Clark simply because he had one of the best putting 459 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 2: realms on poem that I've ever seen, was a two. 460 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 1: Years ago at Pebble Beach. So yeah, his. 461 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,679 Speaker 2: Tory Pines track record not stellar, however, and you know 462 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:41,320 Speaker 2: the Tory greens are not. 463 00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,159 Speaker 1: The same as the Pebble Beach greens. 464 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 2: Will zelatoris he was not going to make the cut 465 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 2: at the American Express, and then he birdied his last 466 00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 2: two holes on Saturday to make the cut on the number. 467 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,719 Speaker 2: On the final hole of his Saturday round, he stuffed 468 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 2: his approach to about a foot and then he went 469 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 2: out and shot a sixty five on Sunday. 470 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,200 Speaker 1: So he's got a little bit of momentum. 471 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 2: He's a great ball striker, and he's fared very well 472 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 2: in a lot of the strokes gained categories at Tory Pines. 473 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 2: So I'm intrigued by will Zlaturus. And then just to 474 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 2: get back to Kepka bo, I mean, we know how 475 00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 2: Kepka gets up for certain tournaments, majors, big events. This 476 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 2: is going to be meaningful to making his return than. 477 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 3: He's going to be motivated. 478 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, he is going to be fired up. 479 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 2: So it does seem like these are very generous odds 480 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:41,199 Speaker 2: considering this isn't a great field and uh, man, I 481 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,200 Speaker 2: don't know. Maybe people are expecting Russ, but I like 482 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 2: him at this number of odds. 483 00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 3: Are a lot more apprehensive than we are. Let's just 484 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:48,119 Speaker 3: say that. 485 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,520 Speaker 2: Yes, what about guys with odds of sixty to one 486 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,919 Speaker 2: or longer? Who are some of the who are some 487 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 2: of the long shots you've got your eye on? 488 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,439 Speaker 3: I have three guys, uh for the third time this season, 489 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 3: I'm gonna out how Tong Lee, who's had a great 490 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,879 Speaker 3: start to this year. Very talented player, and he just 491 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:07,880 Speaker 3: keeps making me look smart because I was talking about 492 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,520 Speaker 3: him last year and now he's getting even better. He's 493 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,120 Speaker 3: he's apparently Scotti Scheffler's best friend. Ninety eight to one 494 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 3: is where I got how Tong Lee this week. So 495 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,200 Speaker 3: there still don't know who he is in the betting markets. 496 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,480 Speaker 3: They're going to find out eventually. While he's still cracking 497 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,040 Speaker 3: top tens in top twenties. I'm going to keep investing 498 00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 3: a little bit in his outright, but more of those 499 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,880 Speaker 3: placement bets with how tong Lee with his current form 500 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 3: being so good. This is a guy who in my 501 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 3: stat model is also a really nice darling, really right 502 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 3: up to the top. There can't beat that. He's seventeen 503 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,880 Speaker 3: nine model on the heels of great bogey avoidance, top 504 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 3: ten in this field. The only thing he's not the 505 00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:47,760 Speaker 3: best at is just on approach. He's kind of middle 506 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 3: of the pack, but he's a really good birdie maker, 507 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 3: really good putter, and he plays tough golf course as well. 508 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:54,879 Speaker 3: I like to see that from a young guy like 509 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 3: how tong Lee. And then your guy, this is a 510 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 3: guy he's coming in one one eighty five to one 511 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 3: Emiliano Grillo, and we love Emiliano on this show. I'm 512 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:08,680 Speaker 3: usually not the guy that bets him that. I usually 513 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,719 Speaker 3: let you bet on Emiliano Grillo, but he really popped 514 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,440 Speaker 3: for me this week. Fourteenth of my model, number two 515 00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 3: in bogie avoidance in this field and number eleven on 516 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 3: proximity over two hundred yards. That's a nice combination, especially 517 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,399 Speaker 3: with those odds. And then my long long shot is 518 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:28,800 Speaker 3: a guy who we've seen win before. Neil Shipley. Neil Shipley, 519 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:33,680 Speaker 3: Ohio State Buckeye long hitter, great putter, and he's he's 520 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,439 Speaker 3: gonna find some success on a course like Tory Pines. 521 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:37,959 Speaker 1: Interesting. 522 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,160 Speaker 2: Not a super long shot, but I kind of like Pierson. 523 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,399 Speaker 2: Cootie at sixty three to one, finished top twenty at 524 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 2: both the Sony and the MX, and he led the 525 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:47,840 Speaker 2: tour in. 526 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:49,800 Speaker 1: Strokes ganin driving last season. 527 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:52,439 Speaker 2: Might have to go back to the well on Sammy 528 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,520 Speaker 2: Vallamachi the finn He's one hundred and thirty to one, 529 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,679 Speaker 2: ranked eighteenth in strokes gain an approach last year tenth 530 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:03,800 Speaker 2: gained tenth in strokes gain putting bo Tony Finow not 531 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 2: at the top of his game, but he has seven 532 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 2: top ten finishes at Tory Pines in the last nine 533 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:14,200 Speaker 2: years and he is one hundred and seventy five to one. 534 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:17,040 Speaker 2: I have to do something with Tony Finow, and if 535 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 2: I lose my money. 536 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:18,440 Speaker 1: So be it. 537 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 3: But I just that price, I mean, it's just still 538 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:22,720 Speaker 3: I see what his top ten number is now. 539 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,199 Speaker 1: Oh, I can tell you what his top ten numbers. 540 00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:27,200 Speaker 1: We'll get to that in a moment. 541 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 2: But what about your guy, Carl Phillips at three hundred 542 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 2: and thirty to one and finished top twenty at the AMEX. 543 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 1: I'm intrigued. 544 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,960 Speaker 3: I mean, he's such a good player. I saw him there. 545 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,960 Speaker 3: I just felt like I was feeling a little more 546 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,840 Speaker 3: confident in in Neil Shipley this week, just based on 547 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 3: course fit. But yeah, you're not going to talk me 548 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 3: out at Carl Phillips three hundred and thirty to one, 549 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 3: just even as a top twenty bet. That would be 550 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:56,240 Speaker 3: solid and I like rooting for the guy that. 551 00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 2: Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, 552 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 2: hard Rock Bet, Florida's sportsbook. The Super Bowl matchup is 553 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 2: set and I'm pretty excited about Seahawks Patriots. 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Play Terms of conditions apply. 576 00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 4: Concerned about gambling in Florida call one eight three three 577 00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:11,800 Speaker 4: play wise. In Indiana, if you are someone you know 578 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 4: is a gambling problem wants help, called one eight hundred 579 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 4: and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred gambler. 580 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,440 Speaker 4: In Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 581 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,600 Speaker 1: Bo give me your hard rock bet of the week. 582 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 3: My hard rock bet of the week is how Tongley 583 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:30,920 Speaker 3: at ninety eight to one. I just I feel something 584 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,320 Speaker 3: in my bones that says how tong Lee is going 585 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 3: to surprise people this week, and it's a long shot. 586 00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,400 Speaker 3: It's meant to be a long shot. Nobody knows who 587 00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 3: this guy is. I do, and I think he's good 588 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:43,320 Speaker 3: enough to win this week. Ninety eight to one would 589 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,480 Speaker 3: be an epic payoff. And what better way to kick 590 00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,400 Speaker 3: off the hard rock bet of the week than to 591 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 3: win a ninety eight to one long shot. 592 00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:53,920 Speaker 1: For my hard rock bet of the week. 593 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,360 Speaker 2: Bo, you ask me what Tony Final was for a 594 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:58,640 Speaker 2: top ten I'll tell you what it is, because that's 595 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,160 Speaker 2: my hard rock bet of the week. Ton Finale for 596 00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,920 Speaker 2: a top ten finish at plus ten fifty that's ten 597 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:07,640 Speaker 2: and a half to one. So yeah, I think that's 598 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,280 Speaker 2: a pretty good price on a dude who's cast seven 599 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 2: top ten checks in the last nine years. 600 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 3: That's a seventy seven point seven percent cash rate on 601 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 3: that on that bet, Yeah, over nearly. 602 00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,719 Speaker 1: What does the rest, What does the rest of your 603 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:24,960 Speaker 1: early betting card look like? 604 00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 3: So I'm going after Ludvig Oberg plus seventeen fifty. Ryan 605 00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:32,640 Speaker 3: Gerard plus forty three hundred, Brooks kept a full ladder 606 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,560 Speaker 3: fifty three to one, outright doing top five, top ten, 607 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,920 Speaker 3: Garrick Heego fifty fifty eight to one, Marco Penn sixty 608 00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,040 Speaker 3: three to one, and at a top ten on him 609 00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,000 Speaker 3: howtong Lee ninety eight to one. I'll throw on a 610 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 3: top twenty just to just to make sure we catch 611 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 3: something from how Tong and then Emiliano Grillo one hundred 612 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:54,000 Speaker 3: eighty five to one, Neil Shipley rounding it out at 613 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 3: two hundred and sixty to one. 614 00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:58,960 Speaker 2: Nice I'm gonna go with Jason Day at thirty one 615 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,120 Speaker 2: to one, Will Zalatorus at forty seven to one, Brooks 616 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,440 Speaker 2: kep Get fifty to one, Pearson Coody sixty three to one, 617 00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:09,520 Speaker 2: Sammy Velamachi won thirty to one, and then Carl Phillips 618 00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:11,800 Speaker 2: three hundred and thirty to one, plus a top ten 619 00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:16,640 Speaker 2: kicker seventeen. Now for the one and done competition, you 620 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:20,280 Speaker 2: took Patrick Cantley last week bo He finished tied for thirteenth, 621 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,680 Speaker 2: good for one hundred and thirty four thousand, six hundred 622 00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 2: and eighty five dollars. I took defending champs Epstraca last 623 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:28,120 Speaker 2: week and. 624 00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:29,920 Speaker 1: He missed the cut. Bo. 625 00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:32,600 Speaker 2: Now it's the lead by about twenty one thousand dollars 626 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 2: and you are up first this week. 627 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 1: My friend, who are you going to go with? 628 00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 3: I am going to burn a big one. I'm going 629 00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 3: with Ludwig Oberg right off the bat. 630 00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,400 Speaker 2: Ludwig Oberg, all right, I'm gonna go with Jason Day. 631 00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:47,320 Speaker 1: Uh. 632 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 2: He has just played really well on this course and 633 00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 2: uh he seems to be in good form. That is 634 00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:56,520 Speaker 2: all for this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast. We'll be 635 00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:02,920 Speaker 2: back next week to preview the Waste Management Phoenix Open. 636 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,360 Speaker 2: Until then, so long everyone. 637 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 638 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,160 Speaker 5: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 639 00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,560 Speaker 5: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 640 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,480 Speaker 5: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 641 00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,440 Speaker 5: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. 642 00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:20,880 Speaker 3: Also subscribe to our 643 00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:35,240 Speaker 5: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros