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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough?

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Speaker 2: They're running again?

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Speaker 1: So smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 3: Standard sixteen just glorious extatution.

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Speaker 4: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 4: thousand percent.

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Speaker 2: Of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that?

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Speaker 2: Shop with mind?

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Speaker 4: Good buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 1: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 5: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The love is left to of the wide eyed, drilled tibus.

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Speaker 2: How old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to Wondergo, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network, presented to you by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. My name is Michael leeb Up. Joining me

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Speaker 1: for this one a my co host Anthony Dubundo and

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Speaker 1: BJ Cunningham, and together the three of us are going

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Speaker 1: to break down the upcoming ten match slate in the

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Speaker 1: Premier League. We'll talk about the Bundesliga, Siria a La Liga,

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Speaker 1: nothing in league. BJ's got some EFL Championship semi final thoughts.

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Speaker 1: Playoff semi final will give out a three leg underdog

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Speaker 1: parlay that comes out to about about one hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventy eight to one, and then our best bets in

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Speaker 1: the Premier League for the upcoming match week. But we

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Speaker 1: have to start with the eleven thirty am kickoff between

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Speaker 1: Manchester United and Arsenal, this one at the Theater of Dreams,

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Speaker 1: Old Trafford. United are six to one underdogs at home,

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Speaker 1: Arsenal traveling as a minus two fifty road favorite. The

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Speaker 1: draw here on the three way line at bet three

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Speaker 1: six five plays out plus four to twenty five BJ

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Speaker 1: your Arsenal, you know it. They've got no choice but

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Speaker 1: to pick up every point available for them for the

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Speaker 1: rest of the run. Here two matches left, They've got

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Speaker 1: a one point advantage over Manchester, six goals ahead in

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Speaker 1: terms of goal difference, but Citi's played one less game,

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Speaker 1: They've got a game in hand, so anything outside of

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Speaker 1: a win for Arsenal is a disaster, absolute disaster, even

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Speaker 1: on the road at Manchester United. We had circled Arsenal's

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Speaker 1: last match against Bournemuth as a potential banana skin to

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Speaker 1: borrow a phrase that a cliche from across the Pond.

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Speaker 1: Didn't turn out that way, but I still think this

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Speaker 1: one is a little trickier than you do. You think

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Speaker 1: this could be a pretty suffocating performance. Is that the

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Speaker 1: word I should be looking for from Arsenal And that's

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Speaker 1: how you're betting it?

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Speaker 3: Sure, dominating, whatever you want to call it. I'm not

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Speaker 3: afraid of United at all here.

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Speaker 2: I will say this.

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Speaker 3: It would not only be detrimental to Arsenal losing the

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Speaker 3: title race, but after all the terrible things I've said

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Speaker 3: about United, for them to get a result here would

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Speaker 3: be extra painful. So I'm really just putting myself out there.

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Speaker 2: But that's okay.

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Speaker 5: It's fun to go in.

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Speaker 3: I like Arsenal to win nil at plus one ninety five.

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Speaker 3: I think that if United, if Fernanz and Rashford are

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Speaker 3: not able to play, which they are fifty to fifty

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Speaker 3: right out at the time of recording this, I think,

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Speaker 3: as you saw a crystal palace, that is detrimental to

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Speaker 3: United's attack, especially Fernanz more than anybody else so far

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Speaker 3: this season eighty four passes in the penalty area for him.

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Speaker 3: Next closes is Marcus Rashford with thirty and Dallo also

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Speaker 3: has thirty as well.

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Speaker 2: And even if you combine you know, Rashford and.

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Speaker 3: Fernandz, they're combining for close to you know, essentially point

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Speaker 3: six y four per n xgplus xa for ninety minutes.

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Speaker 3: There's not many guys on United that actually have a

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Speaker 3: high x G plus xa. They're pretty much the highest

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Speaker 3: outside of a couple other guys. But you know, Arsenal's

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Speaker 3: transition defense is elite, and you saw that against Bournemouth.

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Speaker 3: There was basically just one little transition attack where Bournemouth

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Speaker 3: stole the well high and they were able to get

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Speaker 3: it going forward and created a decent chance off of that.

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Speaker 3: But other than that, Arsenal made sure that never happened

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Speaker 3: for the rest of the match. And yes, you know,

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Speaker 3: some people will say that Arsenal should have been scored

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Speaker 3: on and they got away with one, but I'm mean

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Speaker 3: Slonke basically committed assault on Raya, so no, that's a foul.

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Speaker 3: And then the same thing happened in the Crystal Palace match.

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Speaker 3: And given what we saw from United with this center

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Speaker 3: back pairing of Casameiro and Johnny Evans, it doesn't seem

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Speaker 3: to be going too well. And I don't know how

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Speaker 3: they're gonna stop Arsenal in this. They're not gonna be

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Speaker 3: able to stop their build up Arsenal is gonna be

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Speaker 3: easy outlet balls. They're just gonna run at completely two

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Speaker 3: completely washed guys in their mid thirties.

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Speaker 5: So I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I think it's as straightforward as it seems. Obviously, the

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Speaker 3: odds are a little high, right. I projected Arsenal around

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Speaker 3: minus one nineties, so minus two fifties a little high,

96
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Speaker 3: but when you count for injuries, it's probably getting closer

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Speaker 3: to that. So if United again, if Fernanz and Rashford

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Speaker 3: are not gonna play, it's completely detrimental. If they're just

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Speaker 3: going to do an attack with you know, Garnachio, Hoyland

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Speaker 3: and Anthony, I don't really see them threatening Arsenal at all.

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Speaker 3: So Arsenal winn the Hill at plus one ninety five

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Speaker 3: projected it closer to plus one sixty five, So I

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Speaker 3: think that's the way to go in this match if

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Speaker 3: you want to get a decent price in Arsenal, or

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Speaker 3: just lay them like minus three and a half because

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Speaker 3: this one could get very ugly really quickly.

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Speaker 4: So I mean, I can't make a soccer case for

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Speaker 4: Man United. What's the case there is no like all

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Speaker 4: they're at home, they're going to be inspired.

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Speaker 2: I mean magic.

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Speaker 4: The defensive performance at Palace on Monday was one of

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Speaker 4: the worst I've seen in a long time, from like

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Speaker 4: a real team in the Premier League, not like a

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Speaker 4: relegation level side. And the reality is that, and they

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Speaker 4: showed the stats postmatch, they've given up the second most

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Speaker 4: shots in the Premier League in twenty twenty four. West

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Speaker 4: Ham is the only defense it's been worst. West Ham, Lowtontown,

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Speaker 4: Sheffield United and Man United are the four worst defenses

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Speaker 4: in the PREMI right now, so you know, trying to

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Speaker 4: make the case for them to be live here is

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Speaker 4: really hard. But as this continues to move toward arsenal,

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Speaker 4: which I fully expected to do, I think I will

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Speaker 4: be playing United at a pure spite and pure gut

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Speaker 4: with no soccer intuition behind it. Because you made the

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Speaker 4: point BJ, like, yes, Unit's defense is terrible. When they

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Speaker 4: played City at home this year, they get up three

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Speaker 4: and a half XG. When they played Liverpool at home,

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Speaker 4: they got a two to two draw, but they give

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Speaker 4: up three and a half XG. They went to anfield,

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Speaker 4: they give up two and a half expected goals. They

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Speaker 4: weren't very competitive at City either scored early but got

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Speaker 4: smoked three to one. So ken United sit really deep

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Speaker 4: and absorb pressure in this current setup with their current

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Speaker 4: center backs. I don't really know. And it's crazy how

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Speaker 4: hard Casimiro fell off because we were having conversations about

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Speaker 4: him last year as the most valuable player to United

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Speaker 4: and BJ's right, it is Bruno Fernandez. The two games

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Speaker 4: that he did not play this season. One at Anfield,

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Speaker 4: they created one chance the entire match, think they had

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Speaker 4: three total shots. They couldn't do any anything to get

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Speaker 4: out of their own half. And then against the Palace

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Speaker 4: team who has played a lot better, but it's still

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Speaker 4: like mid table at best, they generated less than seven

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Speaker 4: tons of an XG. I mean, it was a pretty

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Speaker 4: lackluster offensive performance. The thing about Bruno is that, yes,

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Speaker 4: he gets made fun of a lot because he plays

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Speaker 4: a lot of dumb passes. He's a high risk, high

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Speaker 4: reward type forward who is constantly taking its on of

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Speaker 4: chances because when United's on the break, they only need

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Speaker 4: one or two to work, and then all of a

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Speaker 4: sudden you get a goal and you're like, wow, what

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Speaker 4: a great play by Bruno. So when you just take

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Speaker 4: that out, they don't have a single player on the

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Speaker 4: team that can replicate what he does, so that's why

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Speaker 4: he's their most valuable player. And I think if he

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Speaker 4: doesn't play, the market's going to steam close to two here.

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Speaker 4: It wouldn't shock me based on kind of where these

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Speaker 4: two teams are trending right now, but from a perspective

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Speaker 4: of like going to this match, there's not a soul

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Speaker 4: that's going to back United. Everybody's gonna be on Arsenal

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Speaker 4: and in the market's going to continue to run. I

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Speaker 4: think here I'm going to not a huge play, but

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Speaker 4: take United small. I wanted to play United team total,

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Speaker 4: but it's pretty juiced to the point where I didn't

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Speaker 4: even show value on their team total. I just think

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Speaker 4: that the Arsenal attack being projected for two and a

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Speaker 4: half goals on the road here might be as it

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Speaker 4: should be. It might be right, but it might be

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Speaker 4: a little high.

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Speaker 1: We'll see, Yeah you said it. This isn't a situation

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Speaker 1: where you're you're looking at kind of x's and o's

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Speaker 1: and traditional nuts of ball tandicapping. But it's there's two

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Speaker 1: weeks left, It's Arsenal Manchester United, It's at Old Trafford,

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Speaker 1: It's the eleven thirty am kickoff here so it's, you know,

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Speaker 1: the standalone match over there. It's all eyes are going

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Speaker 1: to be on this one. In all likelihoods, City is

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Speaker 1: going to be tucked away after beating Fullham on Saturday,

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Speaker 1: or maybe they you know, they drop points and this

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Speaker 1: is the clincher for ours and whatever it is. You

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Speaker 1: just can't pass up the number here in terms of

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Speaker 1: the situation, it's only going to get bigger. Like you said,

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Speaker 1: it's it's almost once in a while, I think it's

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Speaker 1: okay to make a case like this that this is

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Speaker 1: just what this Manchester United season feels like. It's been

185
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Speaker 1: culminating to whether it's this match ends three to two

186
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Speaker 1: where they them in Arsenal trade goals and United just

187
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Speaker 1: ends up winning in like their best match of the season,

188
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Speaker 1: or they just get pasted. It just feels like this

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Speaker 1: thing is gonna crescendo here.

190
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Speaker 4: I mean, the Liverpool match was not long ago. Liverpool

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Speaker 4: closed minus one forty five, right yeah, but I mean,

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Speaker 4: you know, I mean we think Arsenal's better than Liverpool, but.

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Speaker 1: Like right better, no, I know, And that's what I'm saying.

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Speaker 1: Like they've they they've had a couple like.

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Speaker 2: They're also a little healthy then, right, they weren't that healthy.

196
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Speaker 2: I mean they had a center back that was.

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Speaker 4: On like they were starting like an academy center back still.

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Speaker 2: At Harry Maguire, still at f Nance.

199
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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it's I know, and I mean and since

200
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Speaker 1: then we've seen that basically, I mean they drew Coventry City,

201
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Speaker 1: that they drew Burnley and they just got pasted by

202
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Speaker 1: Palace and so yeah, it's it's ugly, but I think

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Speaker 1: this is the numb are.

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Speaker 2: We gonna are these players are really going to get

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Speaker 2: up for the manager.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's about the manager at this point.

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Speaker 1: I think it's now just a chance to bet be

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Speaker 1: spoilers and they're not going to go in there thinking

209
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Speaker 1: it's not Michael. Right. They have a home match, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they play one more midweek match.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, think about it this way too. If they win

212
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Speaker 2: the City, I get it, But I think they're just

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Speaker 2: gonna hand I do.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that.

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Speaker 2: We'll see if her autumn does that against City.

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Speaker 1: It's it's a it's a.

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Speaker 4: It's much more likely todten them get some point than you.

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Speaker 1: It's a fantastical kind of handicap at the numbers high enough.

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Speaker 1: So I'm okay doing it, I'll be un united.

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Speaker 4: One thing, as we transition into the full match, the

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Speaker 4: market tends to keep going on the game. So you

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Speaker 4: want to wait till closer to post abat it because

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Speaker 4: you will get the number higher and higher and higher.

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Speaker 4: Because Arsenal and City we know they're gonna put out

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Speaker 4: their best team. United in Fulham may not, and the

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Speaker 4: markets just tends to avalanche toward these these heavy favorites

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Speaker 4: in the final hours leading up to kicks. So I

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Speaker 4: have not played this match yet. I'm gonna wait until

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Speaker 4: closer and see if I can't even get like a

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Speaker 4: I don't think I'll get to two, but like one

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Speaker 4: point seventy five, maybe we can get by kick.

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Speaker 1: Okay. So that's the eleven thirty am kickoff on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: The other match for the title race is Fulham and

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Speaker 1: City and this is the first kickoff on Saturday morning,

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Speaker 1: seven thirty am Eastern Time. It's twelve to one on

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Speaker 1: Fulham at home, Cities traveling minus five hundred. The draw

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Speaker 1: here is six to one. Number looks pretty crazy given

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Speaker 1: what we know about Fulham this season. The way that

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Speaker 1: I thought the City performance against Wolves was almost surprisingly

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Speaker 1: good given the way that they were. They were, they were,

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Speaker 1: they were trending, and we were talking about them though,

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Speaker 1: Like I was expecting that thing to be a lot

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Speaker 1: a lot murkier than it. I mean we we said

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Speaker 1: that Wolves, but I mean Wolves was twenty seven to one,

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Speaker 1: so I guess a five one score line isn't crazy.

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Speaker 1: Well they got you know, it ended up being a

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Speaker 1: match anyways, I thought they holland Yeah.

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Speaker 2: He's all right, he's okay.

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Speaker 4: He also Ken is not he's a tap in merchant.

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Speaker 4: He's a penalty merchant. Saturday he was a banger merchant.

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Speaker 4: I've doubbed him. Just a goal merchant. That's all he

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Speaker 4: does is score goals and he's not got anything else.

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Speaker 1: It's got to be Fullham here though, right, Like, I

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Speaker 1: mean I know that they've they've slowed down.

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Speaker 4: So BJ's best bet of the year. Yeah, after he

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Speaker 4: had Brighton, after he had the year.

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Speaker 2: Until next week, I think he's.

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Speaker 4: I think he's lost against City the last last.

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Speaker 2: I'll keep doing it because these prices are crazy.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's crazy.

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Speaker 3: This is I mean, let's go back, let's go back

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Speaker 3: to the previous meeting. I know it was a long

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Speaker 3: time ago, right, crazy stats.

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Speaker 2: But the stats from this match are crazy. City won

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Speaker 2: five to one.

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Speaker 3: They scored all five goals off of two point two

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Speaker 3: expected One was a penalty, so they ended up scoring

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Speaker 3: essentially four goals from open.

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Speaker 2: Play off of one and a half expected goals.

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Speaker 3: But they only took six shots for the match, so

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Speaker 3: one of them being penalty, So they scored four goals

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Speaker 3: on five shots from that's crazy. And what it came

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Speaker 3: down to was the fact that Fulham they played a

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Speaker 3: really really good compact defensive block and they said, City,

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Speaker 3: you're not playing through the middle, We're not going to

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Speaker 3: let you. But Pep was just like, no, I want

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Speaker 3: to play through the middle, and it just became the

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Speaker 3: stalemate for a long time. And again Fulham did a

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Speaker 3: great job of limiting City to those shots and just

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Speaker 3: letting them hang out in the final third.

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Speaker 2: And they've proven that recently.

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Speaker 3: You know, they just played Liverpool at home, held them

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Speaker 3: to one expected goal and only twenty seven touches in

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Speaker 3: the penalty area. They've proven themselves that, yes, they have

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Speaker 3: played a little more open lately. They have tried to

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Speaker 3: press higher and go more towards where the rest of

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Speaker 3: the Premier League is going. But they've also shown them

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Speaker 3: that if they play bigger sides, they can hunker down

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Speaker 3: and they can play a really good defensive block. So

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Speaker 3: they're a good transition team. And if you watch City

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Speaker 3: over the last few weeks, how have they conceded any

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Speaker 3: big chance that they really have given up? It's basically

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Speaker 3: off transition breaks and crosses. Like even in the first

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Speaker 3: half for Wolves, like Kunya just missed getting on the

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Speaker 3: end of across that could have been a goal for

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Speaker 3: them against Forrest. Basically all of their chances came off crosses.

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Speaker 3: Against Real Madrid, their first goal came off across. Folme's

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Speaker 3: completed the second most crosses into the penalty.

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Speaker 5: Area of anybody in the Premier League.

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Speaker 3: And they have guys who can really punish you, and

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Speaker 3: they have a striker who's been really informed. I know

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Speaker 3: he's kind of Rodriguez kind of dipped down a little bit,

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Speaker 3: but he's been very good over the second half of

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Speaker 3: the season, as opposed to somebody like Rajolmennez who obviously

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Speaker 3: who actually could score last week or excuse me, created

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Speaker 3: a big chance last week.

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Speaker 4: He and New Jersey didn't score a chance that he

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Speaker 4: probably would have made eight up ten times.

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Speaker 5: Yeah exactly.

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Speaker 2: But and you know, City they've been on a little

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Speaker 2: bit of a good of a variance round.

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Speaker 3: Like I'm not gonna sit here and say they shouldn't

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Speaker 3: be Brighton like they obviously should have and you know

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Speaker 3: Forest obviously that should at least ended in a draw

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Speaker 3: and then they deserve to beat Wolves. But over these

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Speaker 3: last three matches eleven to one and goals six expected

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Speaker 3: to two point eight take away penalties, it's now four

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Speaker 3: and a half four and a half to two point eight.

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Speaker 3: Like it hasn't been like the most dominant stretch for

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Speaker 3: City based on what the actual numbers are telling you.

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Speaker 2: So I mean I got City a minus one to eighty.

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Speaker 3: I don't think I think that's you know, if you

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Speaker 3: can make a case for City to be higher up

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Speaker 3: coast to minus two to fifty, that's fine, But this

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Speaker 3: is just must win tax inflation on City. I mean,

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Speaker 3: Fulham's good, They're gonna be up for this one. They've

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Speaker 3: played well at craven Cotts this season plus three point

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Speaker 3: two expected gold differential, So I like Fulham plus two.

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Speaker 4: Did you happen to see the training videos from Fulham

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Speaker 4: this week?

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Speaker 1: I did?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it looks like they were having a lot of fun.

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Speaker 4: They were flying kites on the training ground.

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Speaker 5: Arsenal.

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Speaker 2: We'll get down to business here later in the week.

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Speaker 2: It's okay, we can fly.

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Speaker 4: I was hysterical they were going crazy flying kites. And

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Speaker 4: one of the Arsenal fan accounts picked it up, was like,

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Speaker 4: if we're worried about Fulham not really caring about this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Okay, they're gonna have proper go at it. It's okay.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so you know you mentioned the price. I mean

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Speaker 4: you can just do some price shopping, price comparisons here.

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Speaker 4: Fulham played Liverpool two weeks ago. They closed plus one

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Speaker 4: at home, closed plus three quarters really once the line

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Speaker 4: got bet down. They closed plus one at home against

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Speaker 4: Arsenal in the league right before New Year's Now, Arsenal

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Speaker 4: is probably playing better now, but so it is Fulham.

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Speaker 4: I think overall, like they're probably a little better than

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Speaker 4: they were then. You mentioned the first meeting there were

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Speaker 4: twelve total shots and three point six expected goals. That

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Speaker 4: is the highest XG per shot of any game in

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Speaker 4: the prem this year. It was chaos when things did

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Speaker 4: eventually break, but otherwise, like you said, twelve total shots

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Speaker 4: in the whole match. Now you're laying two on the road.

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Speaker 4: It's I mean, it's crazy to me. It makes no

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Speaker 4: sense to be laying this much of a spread against

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Speaker 4: a team that's, you know, solidly slightly below average, but

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Speaker 4: solidly mid table. Fulham is much better they were, like,

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Speaker 4: their numbers aren't nearly as fluky as they were last year,

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Speaker 4: and and they can kind of make it chaotic if

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Speaker 4: they want to. So I think, you know, City doesn't

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Speaker 4: really thrive in those conditions. Fulhams live here for sure,

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Speaker 4: And I can't wait for this match because I know

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Speaker 4: City is gonna win, but I think it's gonna be dicey.

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Speaker 4: Maybe not, they're gonna win.

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Speaker 1: You can basically just copy and paste what we said

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Speaker 1: last week. I think City's gonna win, but it looks

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Speaker 1: a little trickier than the odds imply. Yeah, no, it

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Speaker 1: was not.

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Speaker 4: Somehow got there. I'm still not sure how we won

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Speaker 4: that bet, but the spreads were not great.

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Speaker 1: On to h We'll keep we'll keep going with the

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Speaker 1: title race, and we'll we'll allow Liverpool to stay in

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Speaker 1: here because they're still mathematically.

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Speaker 4: We need two wins and we need Arsenal loss two

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Speaker 4: City losses, right, exactly and the Arsenal loss draw easy.

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Speaker 1: No Arsenal needs to Arsenal needs can't pick up another

378
00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:34,800
Speaker 1: point really, so yeah, it can happen. They are the

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Speaker 1: Monday night football match against Aston Villa. It's on the road.

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Speaker 1: Villa is plus three fifty Liverpool minus one fifty draw

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Speaker 1: here plays out plus three thirty three. So I think

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Speaker 1: it's actually a little bit of a tricky spot for

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Speaker 1: for Liverpool, like pretty mathematically eliminated by the time that

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Speaker 1: the match starts in all likelihood, of course, it seems

385
00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:05,920
Speaker 1: like their top four spot is is pretty safe, but

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Speaker 1: they'll want to clinch it at home. It's the look ahead,

387
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Speaker 1: the dreaded look ahead spot to Jurgen Clop's farewell match

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Speaker 1: the following weekend against Wolves at at Anfield. Wonder, who,

389
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Speaker 1: oh my god, that's gonna be one of the best

390
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Speaker 1: bets ever. But I would say, like what the one bet?

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Speaker 1: I really wish that that got posted. And maybe if

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Speaker 1: our friends over at Bet three six y five have

393
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Speaker 1: a sense of humor, it would be Jurgen Klopp to

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Speaker 1: get sent off here so he suspended for his final

395
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Speaker 1: game at Anfield. That would be I'll take it at

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Speaker 1: at eight thousand and one or better. They would, they would,

397
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Speaker 1: they would, Yeah, absolutely, yeah.

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Speaker 4: Because Jurgen should stand in the cop on Saturday Sunday

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Speaker 4: and sing you'll never walk along with the fans. That

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Speaker 4: is how he should go out.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, just like he did when they drew, when they

402
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Speaker 1: drew against West Brom. Yeah, there was.

403
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Speaker 4: Shot heading on in the Sunday's match and it was

404
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,000
Speaker 4: ang coming out of the tunnel meeting clop They put

405
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Speaker 4: their arms around each other and they like walked out

406
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Speaker 4: onto the pitch at the same time together and then

407
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Speaker 4: the crowd starts singing and I was I was starting

408
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,159
Speaker 4: to feel it a little bit there, like that was something.

409
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Speaker 4: And uh, you know, I'm sad that that the clop

410
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 4: era is over. I mean, like, I know you guys.

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Speaker 1: Hate him the crnch he's very cringe so much. He's

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Speaker 1: he's not fun.

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Speaker 4: For ten years at Liverpool, they were the most exciting

414
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Speaker 4: watch for Neutrals in the league the last ten years.

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Speaker 1: And that's spoken like someone who never Yeah, it's because

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Speaker 1: you never watched Stoke City. You found soccer way too late.

417
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 1: You didn't get to watch the great Stoke City teams

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Speaker 1: with Peter Crouch at the top. That was fun.

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Speaker 4: I mean that that's also fun. The contrasting styles one

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Speaker 4: makes the league fun. But I mean from a from

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Speaker 4: a peer neutrals perspective, I mean, I'm gonna miss clop

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Speaker 4: and Arnie is is great and I love him, but

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Speaker 4: I'll never I'll ever quite be the same, but we'll see.

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Speaker 4: That's for next year.

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Speaker 1: Anyway. For this match, I would lean towards Villa, but

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Speaker 1: I had nothing anything for you bj.

427
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Speaker 3: No, yeah, if anything, you know, I think there's maybe

428
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Speaker 3: a little bit of value in Villa, but it's tough

429
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Speaker 3: little run here for Villa. They just got pasted by Brighton.

430
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,399
Speaker 3: That was a proper cooking. They're going to Greece on

431
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Speaker 3: Thursday to face Limpiacos to try to overcome a two

432
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Speaker 3: gold deficit. So yeah, I have a little bit of

433
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Speaker 3: value on Villa here, and I think that Liverpool is

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Speaker 3: a little bit over valued. But again we've seen with

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Speaker 3: Villa these last couple of matches, when they've played a

436
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 3: couple of teams that have pressed them effectively, they just

437
00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:38,920
Speaker 3: turn it over in their own ends, and that's what

438
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 3: happened the last time at Anfield.

439
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 5: That's why they lost three nothings.

440
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 3: So that's a dangerous game to play with how much

441
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 3: better liverpools Liverpool has been pressing, so it's a pass

442
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 3: for me.

443
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 4: Liverpool finally finished off some chances against Tottenham. I mean,

444
00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 4: you know, the the defense was a big part of

445
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 4: the story and why they ultimately slipped up in the

446
00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 4: title race. They conceded you know, more than oneo point

447
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 4: three ish x shep for ninety I still don't trust

448
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:06,879
Speaker 4: their defense away from home, especially, but so much of

449
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 4: this crazy run was just bad variance. I mean, they

450
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,119
Speaker 4: created over ten xg and four matches and scored five goals.

451
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 4: So when you look at that, you know there's been

452
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 4: so much hand ring about most sala He gets in

453
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 4: the dust up with clop on the sideline. Then you've

454
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 4: got Darwin with an injury, gag Pos been in and

455
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:27,159
Speaker 4: out because of form, and you know, it just it

456
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,880
Speaker 4: didn't quite come together for Liverpool. But they're a clear

457
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,719
Speaker 4: class above Villa for me, and I would lay them

458
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,440
Speaker 4: if it got down to minus one fifteen. Again, that's

459
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 4: where this opened, minus one ten one fifteen. It got

460
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:39,719
Speaker 4: bet up to minus one thirty one thirty five. Now

461
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:43,119
Speaker 4: I think it's a little high. Remember the conversation we

462
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 4: had a few weeks ago was that Liverpool was minus

463
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 4: one forty five fifty at United and we were like, ah,

464
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 4: kind of think that's high. I mean, you know, there's

465
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 4: no real value in Villa and Liverpool with this number.

466
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 4: Villa just needs a point or three points would do it,

467
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 4: but I mean two points in the pretty safe from

468
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,160
Speaker 4: anything Totten them could pull off in the final week

469
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 4: even if they beat City. So top four is pretty

470
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 4: much done. Not a ton of drama this week and

471
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 4: except for the title race. But no no bat for

472
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 4: me in this one unless the market comes down on Liverpool,

473
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:15,919
Speaker 4: at which case like Trent just being as good as

474
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,360
Speaker 4: he is in possession against Liverpool against Villa's back line

475
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 4: is a disaster matchup every time.

476
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,640
Speaker 1: All Right, that does the Those are the three teams

477
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 1: still mathematically alive for the title. Let's go on to

478
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: the rest of the board. Here we'll go Born With

479
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 1: and Brentford ten am Eastern kickoff on Saturday. We have

480
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 1: the Cherries as a odds on minus one of six

481
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 1: favorite Brentford plus two sixty. The draw here is sitting

482
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 1: at plus two eighty. As with most of these matches

483
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 1: coming up, both these teams are on the beach. I think,

484
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 1: you know Bourne with we'll try to desperately finish inside

485
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 1: the top half, a top ten finish for them, that

486
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 1: will be there first since I believe, what twenty sixteen

487
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 1: or so a second ever in the Premier League and

488
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:07,400
Speaker 1: what is you know, just an absolute terrific season from them,

489
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 1: and I iola Brentford meanwhile, they're safe that not too

490
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 1: much to go here. Forum has been all over the

491
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 1: place for the entire season. That said, I I mean

492
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 1: we the numbers tell you that this team is better

493
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 1: than where they are in the standing. It does look

494
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:25,919
Speaker 1: like maybe a shred of value on Brentford.

495
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 5: But this looks.

496
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 1: I don't know, it's just not that appealing of a

497
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,719
Speaker 1: match for me to bet here BJ I'm not I'm

498
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:33,359
Speaker 1: not really into it.

499
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, from a numbers play, I mean, I have Bournemouth

500
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 3: at plus one thirty, so you know, my numbers are

501
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 3: telling me that there is a little bit of value

502
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 3: on Brentford. And if you think about the way Brentford

503
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 3: plays and how Bournemouth has been successful, right like we

504
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 3: talked about them many times. But teams that can switch

505
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 3: the play and play these long balls across the field

506
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 3: over Bournemouth Press have generally been successful. Well, Brentford is

507
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 3: the definition of that team of playing those type of

508
00:24:58,440 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 3: long balls.

509
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 2: So it's it's very difficult though.

510
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,479
Speaker 3: With giving the form that Bournemouth have been in recently,

511
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:09,640
Speaker 3: especially against these bottom half of the table sides. If Brentford,

512
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 3: you know, we'll see where the line gets to. If

513
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,120
Speaker 3: Brentford gets to plus a half and I having plus money,

514
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 3: I might have to fire on that. They've gotten very

515
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 3: healthy finally, like they have all their available attackers ready

516
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 3: to go here. So it's a much different Brentford team

517
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 3: than we saw at the beginning of the season.

518
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 5: They have Tony, they have him, Buemo even have shot

519
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 5: I back, like.

520
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 3: It's it's about as you know, as good of a

521
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,119
Speaker 3: Redford team as we've seen all season long. So I

522
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 3: get that they have nothing to play for. But Brentford,

523
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 3: you know, as we know about them, they always get

524
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 3: up for it, right, They're not a team that's just

525
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 3: gonna walk over. So Brentford gets plus a half and

526
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 3: plus money, I might have to take it. But uh yeah,

527
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:49,880
Speaker 3: other than that, not much for this match.

528
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have a lot riding on futures with with

529
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 4: our top half ticket and Brentford over West Brent Bournmouth

530
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:57,879
Speaker 4: over West Ham. I don't want to keep leveraging this

531
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:00,119
Speaker 4: year in the last two weeks, so this one was

532
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 4: a pretty easy pass for me. Agree with bj though,

533
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 4: like Brentford healthier, I think their defense will be better.

534
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,159
Speaker 4: So that does show some interest in the under, especially

535
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 4: if Bournemouth, who relies so much on the direct play.

536
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,400
Speaker 4: You can't really out direct Brentford. It just doesn't work

537
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 4: as an attacking outfit. And Brentford doesn't take a lot

538
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 4: of chances in possession either, so that creates a bit

539
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,360
Speaker 4: of a stalematey kind of an atmosphere in this one.

540
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 4: So I would lean toward the under, but no no

541
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 4: play for me.

542
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 1: In this one, all right. That brings us to Everdon

543
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 1: and Sheffield United at Goodison Park, and Everdon is laying

544
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 1: minus two fifty here. It's a big number obviously. I

545
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 1: don't think anybody's the show is going to make a

546
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 1: case to bet ever lay that kind of number. With

547
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 1: the topees Sheffield United traveling at seven to one, the

548
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 1: draw is plus three seventy five. Should be a pretty fun,

549
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:57,640
Speaker 1: buoyant atmosphere. The Everton ownership saga continues with finally looks

550
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 1: like they're going to walk away from seven to seven

551
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 1: to seven partners, which is astute decision considering, Yeah, fraud

552
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 1: and that that a little I saw three hundred, I

553
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 1: saw three fifty millions. Yeah, you know it's bad when

554
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 1: like for a year and a half is this has

555
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 1: kind of been going on. Everyone's like, yeah, these are

556
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 1: fraud stairs, but they just might it might be evidence

557
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 1: only chance to avoid like going bankrupt. But I do

558
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 1: think like that was really good. I just I mean,

559
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 1: come on, it's it's got to be Sheffield United or

560
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 1: nothing here. You're not betting.

561
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 2: I mean, Michael, you tell me Everton did not No,

562
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,640
Speaker 2: you're half at all.

563
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,159
Speaker 3: So that's not encouraging if you want to bet Everton

564
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 3: this week or even next week against Arsenall. And this

565
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 3: has happened the last couple of years, right like Everton

566
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 3: finally gets on the beach, they finally get safety and

567
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:49,360
Speaker 3: they just kind of check.

568
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 1: Can you blame them?

569
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 2: No, I can't blame them. It's a lot of pressure,

570
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 2: especially exactly. Yeah, I think it's and it's just like

571
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 2: it's not getting anywhere.

572
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,120
Speaker 3: Let's just you know, then that's what we talk about

573
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 3: with teams being on the beach, like right, like what

574
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 3: do they have to play for?

575
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 2: So yeah, it has to be Sheffield or nothing.

576
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:08,439
Speaker 5: But I don't know where Sheffields heads are at.

577
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 2: I don't know if they're gonna care about this match either.

578
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, Everton in the second half, Yeah they didn't look

579
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 4: too that interested. They still were the better team against Lootontown.

580
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 4: But this is a Stuationpourt. Neither team has any motivation.

581
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 4: The total gets jacked up. I mean the Unders and

582
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 4: the Everton matches have been the most profitable under team

583
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 4: in the league because they can't finish and their defense

584
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:26,120
Speaker 4: is pretty good.

585
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:27,440
Speaker 5: But the way.

586
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:31,360
Speaker 4: Sheffield defends they hit the one hundred goal mark. Congrats

587
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,360
Speaker 4: to them or happy trails to them really, but yeah,

588
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 4: I mean, this is the easiest pass on the board

589
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 4: for me, no motivation to really handicap, uncertain what will

590
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 4: teams look like. Would generally lean toward the under based

591
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 4: on numbers, but this is the end of the season

592
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 4: and Sheffield's defense is historically bad, So easy pass for me.

593
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 4: And there are better games to bet.

594
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 1: All right, that'll bring us to Newcastle and Brighton. You

595
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 1: were talking about better games to bet. I don't think

596
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 1: this one qualifies. Newcastle minus won seventy five at home.

597
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 1: Bournemouth is traveling US three seventy five the same price

598
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 1: on the draw. I've got zilch here BJ Yeah.

599
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 3: No, i have Newcastle at minus one thirty six. So

600
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:09,959
Speaker 3: you could make a case that maybe they're a tad

601
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 3: tad high here at home. But I don't really want

602
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 3: to stick my neck out for Brighton right now, Like, yes,

603
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 3: they had one very good performance in a what was

604
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,479
Speaker 3: a pretty decent matchup for them against Villa, but it's

605
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 3: going to be a completely different type of opponent and

606
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 3: if they're going to continue to play a Manda man

607
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 3: and press high, it's going to leave a lot of

608
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 3: space in behind for Newcastle. So I mean, I've got

609
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 3: a Newcastle top six. I've got a Newcastle finished above Chelsea.

610
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 3: I've got e shack twenty five plus goals, so I'm

611
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 3: just gonna sit back and watch those and hope they hit.

612
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 4: I think the question is like, if Newcastle scores first year,

613
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 4: how do we feel about our Brighton plus one ticket

614
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 4: that we could potentially have. And I could not feel

615
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 4: worse about that ticket if we give up the first goal,

616
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 4: because I think it's snowballs quickly in this kind of

617
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 4: scenario because of how good Newcastle is it playing with

618
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 4: the lead, and that has remained true even from last

619
00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 4: year into this year. They're still great front runners, they're

620
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 4: still very good transition, and they're still going to be

621
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 4: able to punish Brighton if Brighton has to come out

622
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 4: and take more risk once they're losing. So you know,

623
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 4: there are other game states where Brighton goes up early

624
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 4: and maybe this game is different, but you know, so

625
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 4: that that that could entice me to take like a

626
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 4: plus a half or even like a money line shot

627
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 4: on Brighton wouldn't be a terrible bet. But in terms

628
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 4: of like just taking the traditional Brighton plus one minus

629
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 4: one ten, which is out there.

630
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 1: No thanks, okay, quickly move on. Then Spurs and Burnley next,

631
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: this one could be chaos. Total of sitting at four

632
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 1: Spurs minus three hundred at home Burnley plus six fifty

633
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 1: on the road to draw is five to one Burnley. Technically,

634
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: you know they I mean, they're still in it, right,

635
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 1: They've they've got to catch out in the forest three points, yeah,

636
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 1: and the but the goal difference, so they got to

637
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: pass them out right and we'll see, but it would

638
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 1: basically require a win over Spurs to do so. So

639
00:30:57,520 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 1: they got to pull the upset here to have a

640
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 1: NTS because then it's the two of them are playing

641
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 1: right to close out the season. Burnley enforced in the

642
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 1: final match week this this feels like a classic that

643
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 1: match where the profile of these two teams would tell

644
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 1: you it's going to be crazy like that. Both teams

645
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 1: want to put the ball on the floor and move

646
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:26,719
Speaker 1: move things around, but the stakes have to be considered right.

647
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 1: This just feels almost like a uh to borrow a

648
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: kind of a handicapping tactic from from Hockey and the

649
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 1: Stanley Cup playoffs, which make sure you listen to line

650
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:40,479
Speaker 1: Change the NHL Betting podcast of the Action Network. When

651
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 1: when you get into these elimination matches, let's say, you know,

652
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 1: Burnley's basically down three to one in a in a

653
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 1: best of seventh series here in terms of the relegation,

654
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 1: I know it's not been in their DNA all that

655
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 1: much the season. We started to see maybe a little

656
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 1: bit more responsible play from Burnley down the stretch, but

657
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 1: you gotta just you gotta be able to shut it

658
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 1: down here. I think and play with a lot less

659
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 1: risk and a lot less swashbuckling, a lot less less

660
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 1: dash to their game. I think that you guys both

661
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 1: like the under four. I think alt unders or the

662
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 1: nil nil, maybe thirty three to one on the nil nil.

663
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 1: Come on, I just don't.

664
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 4: I just can't tie. They can't tie.

665
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 1: I know they can't, but that doesn't mean it can't

666
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 1: and nil nil right.

667
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 4: The biggest thing for me in this matchup is the

668
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 4: set pieces. So both defenses sucked on set pieces. It's

669
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 4: been a common thing all year. We've made jokes about

670
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 4: it and just getting you know, slacking the media now

671
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 4: and Tottenham's lost four in a row and all competitions

672
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 4: in the prim all against good teams Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool,

673
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 4: so everybody's written off and SETI stinks. Some people are

674
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 4: saying he won't make it to Christmas. I mean, there's

675
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 4: some crazy stuff being said about mister Pasta conglo now,

676
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 4: but they need to fix the set piece problem. The

677
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 4: thing about this matchup is that Tottenham and Burnley are

678
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 4: the two worst set piece teams in the league in

679
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 4: terms of extually created off of dead ball situations this year.

680
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 4: So how is this total at for if we don't

681
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 4: think we're gonna get the set piece hacks. And you know,

682
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 4: Tottenham's had problems with back post crosses. They had problems

683
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 4: defending in the last month, but again they played Newcastle, Chelsea,

684
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 4: Arsenal and Liverpool. Now they're playing Burnley. They haven't played

685
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 4: a ton of the bottom half in the last couple

686
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 4: of months, and when they have, their defense has actually

687
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 4: been kind of fine, so I'm not too overly concerned

688
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 4: about how they're going to perform here. They had a good,

689
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 4: you know, home play against Loton Town. They were good

690
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 4: defensively against Palace at home. They actually had a pretty

691
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 4: good showing at Villa defensively, like this defense has not

692
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 4: been that bad outside of set pieces. And when they

693
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 4: played the top, top teams that can wreck them in

694
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 4: transition because there's so much space that's not Burnley. Burnley

695
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 4: is still a bottom three attacking team. A bottom three

696
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 4: attacking team is lined at four. That is crazy to me. Crazy.

697
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 4: I have this below three and a half. I would

698
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 4: have taken three and a half under at plus one ten.

699
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 4: So you're gonna get me four minus one ten, Happy

700
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 4: to bet it. Maybe this game becomes crazy like the

701
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 4: last meeting, certainly there was two goals in the first

702
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 4: like ten minutes and Spurns ended up winning five too.

703
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 4: But even when that game had three and a half

704
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 4: xt gg, this was way back in September or August rather,

705
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 4: so I don't I don't quite understand the total being

706
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 4: as high. I know BJ doesn't either, So under four.

707
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, there have been six of Tottenham's thirty four matches

708
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 3: this season, there's been over four expected goals.

709
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 5: Created, just six.

710
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 2: That's it.

711
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 3: And you mentioned the last match, Anthony. That was back

712
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 3: when Burnley was still playing their four to two three one.

713
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 3: Let's press the front four and let's try to cost

714
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 3: some havoc and it didn't work. So now, since the

715
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 3: beginning of September, Burnley has transitioned to mainly out of

716
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 3: a four to four to two give them better defensive stability.

717
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 3: They're still kind of pressing at a high rate, but

718
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 3: not as the relentless crazy you know balls the wall

719
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 3: that they tried to come into the Premier League with.

720
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 3: And there's been some marginal improvements defensively since since November.

721
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,479
Speaker 3: They're allowing one point seven to four x cheaper ninety minutes.

722
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:01,879
Speaker 3: But I know it sounds like a lot, but before

723
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 3: that they were allowing one point ninety five, so there's

724
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 3: been some marginal improvements there. They also, I mentioned this

725
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 3: last week, they made a change at goalkeeper that has

726
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 3: been for the better. They brought in Merrich who is

727
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,919
Speaker 3: their goalkeeper in the championship eight matches plus six point

728
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 3: six post shot actually plus minus Trafford. The previous keep

729
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,320
Speaker 3: was minus five point nine. And you mentioned the offense, Anthony,

730
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 3: since the beginning of November and eleven v. Eleven situations

731
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 3: because there's been a lot of red cards stuff going

732
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:29,920
Speaker 3: on with Burnley matches one point zero four actually for

733
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 3: ninety minutes, that's all they're creating. So yeah, I agree

734
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 3: with Anthony. I think that this total is crazy. I

735
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 3: have three point four projected, so under four at minus

736
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 3: one p five no.

737
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 1: No, I mean it's thirty three to one, thirty three

738
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:46,719
Speaker 1: to one. It's too much. And I know Anthony says

739
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:47,399
Speaker 1: that they can't tie.

740
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 3: That doesn't mean that, oh, they can tie mathematically, Anthea,

741
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 3: I I hope you know that they can tie. But

742
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 3: and this is a match you'll you'll like to watch

743
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 3: without you know, they're being set piece goals.

744
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 4: Well, they can't they can tie?

745
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 2: Is the possibility, Yes, it is a possibility, but.

746
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 4: No, I'm saying turns trying to get out of this

747
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 4: picture here. But they have they have not a cam

748
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 4: on the front. Yeah, yess, yes, so they could just

749
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 4: but they have to pass both, right, so they know

750
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 4: they can tie. They're five points back with two to play.

751
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 4: They cannot tie this match. They're relegated if they tie. Yes,

752
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 4: so they have to win. Yes, that's a little scary,

753
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:28,359
Speaker 4: but like you know, there's still like Burnley, Oh, they

754
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:30,879
Speaker 4: got to really go for it. Okay, they still create.

755
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 3: The other thing that happens is like these teams that

756
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 3: have to go for it, they don't just like from

757
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,000
Speaker 3: the jumps they were going for it, right, Like they

758
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 3: marginally do it over the course of the match. Right,

759
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 3: They're not just going to do it from the jump,

760
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 3: like they're going to pick their moments and find the

761
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,319
Speaker 3: right opportunities. It's not just like let's just press them,

762
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 3: like we're down two goals and aggregate in the second

763
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 3: leg of a Champions League.

764
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 5: Tie, Right, They're not just going to do that.

765
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:59,399
Speaker 1: Yes, okay, that brings us to Lootontown still alive as well.

766
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:03,280
Speaker 1: They are two points ahead of Burnley, three behind Nottingham Forest,

767
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 1: so once again they'll have to pass Forrest outright because

768
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 1: of the goal difference. But I actually like Luton Town's

769
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 1: opportunity on Saturday against the west Ham team that is,

770
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 1: they're on the beach, I would say, with with David

771
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:27,359
Speaker 1: Moyes about to be replaced by Julian Little Potagy, I get,

772
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 1: you know, they could squint and see away into uh,

773
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 1: you know, seventh or whatever you're opa conference league, But

774
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think so this looks like a

775
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 1: team that is has kind of wanted the season to

776
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 1: be over for months now. I feel like and that

777
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 1: the two defenses going at it here should be should

778
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 1: be an absolute treat to watch. And I think that's

779
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 1: what leads me to the hatters here, like, yeah, they're

780
00:37:54,600 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 1: they're terrible, and they're terrible defensively, But I actually think

781
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 1: the motivation does matter in a situation like this, where

782
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 1: you've got two very very flawed teams. The favorite has

783
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:11,439
Speaker 1: nothing to gain from a win. The coaches out the door.

784
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 1: We know what at least the kind of effort we're

785
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 1: going to get from Lutontown. You're getting plus two eighty.

786
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 1: Perhaps there's a little bit.

787
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:17,360
Speaker 5: Of a.

788
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 1: Must win tax baked in here, but I still think

789
00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 1: the number is playable on Loutontown. I know you guys

790
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 1: are going to go in another direction, but we can

791
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 1: all win here, Anthony, we can all win our bets.

792
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 5: I agree.

793
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 4: Both teams are giving up over to x G per

794
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 4: ninety for like six months now. That's all I have

795
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 4: to say. You can be one of those people that says, hey, like,

796
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,120
Speaker 4: there's no way the league can keep scoring at this rate.

797
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 4: It's unsustainable. It's been crazy. The league is drunk, it's hammered.

798
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 4: Maybe you're right. Next year. Maybe next year, there's no

799
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:57,759
Speaker 4: sea change and adjustment period. These teams kind of slow

800
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 4: down the insanity of pressing we're seeing, or there's more

801
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 4: commitment to defending. There's always a zigzag ying yang kind

802
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 4: of back and forth. But these two teams the ones

803
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 4: they are going to bring it right this Sunday Saturday.

804
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:12,879
Speaker 4: I don't think so. So over three and a half

805
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 4: is plus money. I have this total at three point

806
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 4: seventy five, and I'm pretty confident that I'm right. So

807
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 4: I'm going to go with the over here, and I

808
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 4: think I'm worth an all look because you know this

809
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 4: is a you know, west Ham on the beach. We

810
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 4: saw them give up almost four x G to Chelsea

811
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:29,799
Speaker 4: last weekend. Now they come home Moy's last game at home.

812
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:32,359
Speaker 4: Should give it a go. They're not going to get

813
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 4: a result in the final Sunday, so this is it

814
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 4: for them. And I think that this game screams like

815
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 4: two two three two.

816
00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 2: I agree.

817
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 3: I this is the basketball match of the the of

818
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 3: the weekend for sure, of any of these types of

819
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,120
Speaker 3: these matches. Yeah, this is definitely the match to play

820
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 3: some alts. I mean, if you think about and we

821
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 3: know that Bluten's just abandoned the low block. They'll banned

822
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 3: it a long time ago because it wasn't working. And

823
00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 3: they you know, have physical enough players that they can

824
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 3: press high. That's what they're gonna try to do here

825
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 3: against west Ham. And that's a very scary thought given

826
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 3: the players that west Ham have that can play through

827
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 3: pressure with Kudous Piketta and Jared Bowen, like they can

828
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 3: just rip Gluten to shreds if they really want to.

829
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 3: But the flip side of it is like west Ham

830
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 3: doesn't defend anymore, They don't press good. They don't play

831
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:23,879
Speaker 3: good in a little block like they do nothing good

832
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 3: defensively right now. They also don't defend cross as well

833
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:28,840
Speaker 3: at all. They all hung the most of anybody in

834
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 3: the Premier League, and how does Luton create all the

835
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 3: chances crosses?

836
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 2: So yeah, you could, so you.

837
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 3: Could squint with west Ham and you could say, in

838
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 3: technicality they are still alive for a europe A Conference

839
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 3: League spot. They would need to win both matches and

840
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,719
Speaker 3: essentially have everybody else lose and then yes they're that city,

841
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 3: so it's it's done. So they're pretty much on the beach.

842
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 3: But yeah, yeah, so over five and a half is

843
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 3: plus five twenty five.

844
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 5: That's what I would probably go with, along with maybe,

845
00:40:58,239 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 5: you know, over three and a half.

846
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 3: Let's maybe, Anthony, should we climb the ladder three and

847
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:03,799
Speaker 3: a half, four and a half, five and a half.

848
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 4: I've enjoyed ladders. Ladders been my friend.

849
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 2: We'll climb the ladder, We'll climb the ladder in this match.

850
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 4: Leave Off would like to chime in he's betting no

851
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 4: this one.

852
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 1: I'm definitely not. This one is going. Uh maybe I'll

853
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 1: parlay with the nil note, but I like I like

854
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 1: Luton Town. Maybe I'll do what I did with you know,

855
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 1: it's talking about doing with with Palace last week, which

856
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 1: was look, if they're they're gonna win, they probably are

857
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:28,359
Speaker 1: gonna do it like there's a good chance it's buy

858
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:29,319
Speaker 1: multiple goals and.

859
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:32,879
Speaker 2: Gosh nil, no, only twenty to one in this match.

860
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, we gotta go come on thirty three to one?

861
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:39,759
Speaker 1: Uh with Burnley and Spurs. That's the nil nil of

862
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 1: the week.

863
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 2: Yeah over over eight and a half is forty to

864
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 2: one as well.

865
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 4: Okay, this is still Lootontown that has to score.

866
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 1: They will.

867
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 2: They always do everything I said about crosses though, Yeah.

868
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 1: They always. When when does Loutontown not score? Always just

869
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 1: score all the goals? They they what they do is

870
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 1: they they've they've hit three four Cup. They had that

871
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 1: crazy Bourne with three against Arsenal, three against Arsenal. Come on,

872
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 1: if you could score three against Arsenal when you pro

873
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 1: rate that out, Anthony, if you run it through your model,

874
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 1: what's that that's they can get to eight and a

875
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:17,720
Speaker 1: half on their own. Okay, well, quickly run through wolves

876
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 1: in Palace before we get to a match that all

877
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 1: three of us are on the same side. Is to

878
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 1: close out the Premier League ten am Eastern Time. Wolverhampton

879
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 1: is plus one eighty at home. Palace is a road

880
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 1: favorite plus one forty five. The draw here is plus

881
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 1: two to fifty. Nothing to talk about here from I

882
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 1: think this Mattress perspective.

883
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 2: But are we getting a little high on Palace here?

884
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 1: It does seem that way. But I was gonna say

885
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 1: it's just gonna be like less the previous season. Not

886
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:48,360
Speaker 1: this season that just is just about to wrap up.

887
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 1: But last year when we were like Patrick Vieira's Palace

888
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 1: top six tickets, top ten tickets, Benham across the board,

889
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:58,359
Speaker 1: whatever which way you want is that? Are you gonna

890
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 1: be talking about that again? Because it feels like it

891
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:02,879
Speaker 1: feels like we're gonna be all in on the Eagles again,

892
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 1: coming in even even if they lose, Even if they lose,

893
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 1: as I or at least say, it would be like

894
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 1: this team, they got us, baby, they got us back

895
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 1: in right he might.

896
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 3: You know what the way the Premier League's trending, with

897
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 3: all the financial fair play issues that all the big

898
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 3: teams are gonna have to deal with, like be able

899
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 3: to keep them, there's a chance that they keep them

900
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,799
Speaker 3: all just for at least, you know, one more year,

901
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 3: and I mean at last they signed a long term

902
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 3: contract of Palace, so like clearly he you know, at

903
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:27,840
Speaker 3: least is in a position where he's thinking about staying

904
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:30,320
Speaker 3: and with how fun this has been, maybe you never know, Michael,

905
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 3: like there's a better situation to play every single match

906
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 3: versus going to somewhere like I don't know, Chelsea or

907
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 3: City and being like now I have to compete with

908
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 3: this guy, right, so maybe it's a good situation for

909
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:42,759
Speaker 3: him to just stay one more year.

910
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 5: He's young, right, same thing with Essay.

911
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:47,440
Speaker 4: I mean the biggest problem. I mean, as it's twenty five,

912
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 4: so he's kind of get like this is his chance

913
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:50,880
Speaker 4: to get a big move. But the biggest problem with

914
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 4: both guys is like they don't play enough. They're always here,

915
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 4: you know. So it's like, oh, we're gonna be so

916
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 4: excited in September, like be like Palace, this could be

917
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:05,360
Speaker 4: their year. And Jeffery up and you've never heard of

918
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:07,840
Speaker 4: You're starting up on the wings again. And then and

919
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:10,759
Speaker 4: then John feliet Mateta stopped scoring every match and all

920
00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 4: of a sudden it's like, oh wait a minute, never mind.

921
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, so yeah, we've I mean.

922
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:15,920
Speaker 4: How many times have we seen this before? Right, Like,

923
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 4: the team runs hot, they get the new manager and

924
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 4: they got some new ideas. They're as healthy as they've

925
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 4: been all year.

926
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 1: Gay he comes into schedules kind of conducive to it. Yeah,

927
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 1: but we'll be We'll be on him and and then

928
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 1: by Christmas Roy's back on the sidelines, and are we fun?

929
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 4: I will say, I mean I just think that. So

930
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 4: for this match specifically, I mean, they opened a dog here,

931
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 4: and every time they scored a goal, the market moves

932
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 4: slowly more and more toward Palace for this match. Now

933
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 4: they're like pick minus one thirty. I don't know, Like

934
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 4: Wolves are are clearly the worst team right now, but

935
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 4: are they bad enough that like they should be a

936
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:53,959
Speaker 4: true dog at home? But it's trending toward I don't

937
00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 4: really think so.

938
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 3: Also, it is trending as of right now that Pedro

939
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 3: NATO's gonna play in this match. I was probably gonna

940
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 3: come off the bench, but over, But I mean it's yeah,

941
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 3: I guess over. But like we're trending towards a position

942
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 3: where we have to bet Wolves, which I don't really

943
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 3: want to do. I don't want to bet it's this

944
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:16,319
Speaker 3: Palace train. But I mean, if you go this plus

945
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:17,880
Speaker 3: a half, you're gonna do it, aren't she Anthony.

946
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:19,359
Speaker 4: But it's not gonna get that fun.

947
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see.

948
00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a fun match. I'm actually so of all

949
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:26,160
Speaker 4: the matches at ten o'clock, the two I'm most excited

950
00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 4: to watch are the two we just talked about, which

951
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:30,719
Speaker 4: are west Hamluton Town and Wolves Palace. I think they're

952
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 4: gonna be electric watches and they're far more exciting to

953
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:34,880
Speaker 4: me than any of the other matches in ten o'clock,

954
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 4: so it should be good stuff. But yeah, if you

955
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:39,799
Speaker 4: missed the openers on Palace, which most people probably did,

956
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 4: then there's not really a ton of love left in

957
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:43,840
Speaker 4: the market to bet them as a road favorite.

958
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 5: All right.

959
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 1: That brings us to the twelve thirty pm kickoff. Our

960
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 1: last Premier League match to talk about this weekend, Nottingham

961
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 1: Forced and Chelsea. This one is at the City Ground

962
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:59,720
Speaker 1: right there on the River Trent. Noting Forces plus two sixty.

963
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:03,440
Speaker 1: Chelsea is traveling odds on minus one of six. The

964
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 1: draw is plus two point eighty. Here love Forest in

965
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:11,600
Speaker 1: the spot. I absolutely love it. At full disclosure, Anthony

966
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 1: wanted to make them as his underdog. I wouldn't let him.

967
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:16,239
Speaker 1: I wanted him to go in a different direction, and

968
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:19,719
Speaker 1: I pulled the powerchair move on him. But all three

969
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:21,360
Speaker 1: of us are going to be on Forest here, Anthony,

970
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 1: you can get the conversation started.

971
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 4: My last wager on this awful team this year. It's

972
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 4: funny because they showed a graphic on Sky Sports. They

973
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 4: were breaking down United and how bad their defense has been,

974
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 4: and they showed like a bar charge like a table

975
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 4: and it was shots allowed per game and extra alloted

976
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 4: per game and obviously defensively. The top three were the

977
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 4: top three Liverpool City Arsenal, and then the commentator was

978
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 4: kind of going through the top teams and he's like,

979
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 4: you know, Nottingham Forrest, they've been pretty good defensively, and

980
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 4: you could tell as he said it, they were like

981
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:55,800
Speaker 4: he was thinking in his mind, He's like, wait, what

982
00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 4: did I just say? Like that doesn't make any sense.

983
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:00,320
Speaker 4: And then you know, because he's not thinking about it

984
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 4: from the way that the numbers nerds look at it,

985
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 4: which is their defense is good, their goalie sucks, and

986
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:09,440
Speaker 4: we've not had enough Matt sells minutes BJ I don't

987
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:11,799
Speaker 4: know if you've looked at his stats lately, but he's

988
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:13,320
Speaker 4: he might be worse than Turner.

989
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:16,360
Speaker 2: They've tried, man, you cannot fault him for trying.

990
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:20,600
Speaker 4: They've had three different goalies and the three of them

991
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:22,840
Speaker 4: are in the bottom eight in the whole league in

992
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 4: shot stopping this year. Three goalies on the same team.

993
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 4: There's not enough minutes to go around, if that even

994
00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 4: be possible, but they've managed to do it. But here's

995
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:34,360
Speaker 4: the thing. Everybody's back in on Chelsea now, BJ and

996
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 4: I we're in a soccer group chat. There's a lot

997
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 4: of Chelsea hate in that group. Everybody's coming around on Chelsea.

998
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,360
Speaker 2: Defensive team in the league exactly.

999
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 4: They hammer a shit west Ham team at home. You know,

1000
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:48,720
Speaker 4: they beat Tottenham.

1001
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 2: Two set pieces off.

1002
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:54,120
Speaker 4: Set pieces, and everybody's like, yeah, look at Chelsea and

1003
00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 4: look their home form is good. But away from home

1004
00:47:56,800 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 4: this year negative expected goal differential UH for us at

1005
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 4: home positive expected gold differentially. They've been a pretty good

1006
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 4: home team as as his tradition. So unless we get

1007
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 4: done in on set pieces here.

1008
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 2: Which we could, which we could, I want to make

1009
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:09,959
Speaker 2: that very clear.

1010
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 4: What happens every week we'll meet that forest. Other than

1011
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:16,560
Speaker 4: that miss Lincoln Forest should not be puss a half

1012
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:18,480
Speaker 4: in this game. So I'm gonna take them, and I'm

1013
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:21,320
Speaker 4: gonna sprinkle some money line and if we win this,

1014
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 4: we clinch Lewton's relegation. We clinch a nice winner here

1015
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 4: and we we don't have to ever bet this team

1016
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:29,319
Speaker 4: until next next year.

1017
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:34,800
Speaker 3: Yeah so so, I mean Nottingham Forrest is still playing

1018
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 3: the same low defensive block they played under.

1019
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 2: Steve Cooper, Like nothing's really changed. They've come out in

1020
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:43,040
Speaker 2: certain situations against teams like you know Wolves or in

1021
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:43,920
Speaker 2: like Wolves in.

1022
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 3: The bottom half of the table where they will press them,

1023
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:48,759
Speaker 3: but against Chelsea they're not going to do that. They're

1024
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 3: they've switched them out of possession structors from a five

1025
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 3: to three to two to a five to four to one.

1026
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:55,839
Speaker 3: Like nothing's really drastically changed. Since the beginning of March,

1027
00:48:56,440 --> 00:49:00,360
Speaker 3: they have allowed ten point eight non penalty expected in

1028
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 3: ten matches. That is fourth past in the Premier League.

1029
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 3: Like that's how good they have been defensively. And they've

1030
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 3: played some of the big boys.

1031
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 5: Along that run.

1032
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:10,239
Speaker 3: Along that run as well, and even if you go

1033
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:14,360
Speaker 3: from the beginning of March as well, plus four and

1034
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:17,439
Speaker 3: a half non penalty expected gold differential. Chelsea's at plus

1035
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:20,400
Speaker 3: six point five, so like, there really hasn't been a

1036
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 3: drastic difference in terms of the underlying metrics for these

1037
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:26,279
Speaker 3: two teams. It's just Forrest has been unlucky. They've lost

1038
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:28,960
Speaker 3: five matches and Chelsea's only lost one in ten, right,

1039
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:31,479
Speaker 3: So it's just funny how results can kind of skew

1040
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 3: your thinking. And Chelsea's like build ups like really improving.

1041
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:36,319
Speaker 3: They're starting to go away from three to one to six.

1042
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 3: They're starting to do three two or four to two

1043
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,760
Speaker 3: build ups which have really been better. With Connor Gallagher

1044
00:49:40,880 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 3: dropping deep, that's all well and good, and you can

1045
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 3: do that to west Ham and teams like Toddam that

1046
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:46,280
Speaker 3: are gonna press you. But like, good luck doing against

1047
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:47,839
Speaker 3: one of the best low blocks in the Premier League.

1048
00:49:47,920 --> 00:49:50,759
Speaker 3: So I'm on Forrest as well. Like Anthony said, they've

1049
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 3: been really good at home the season. Chelsea's road form

1050
00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 3: hasn't been good, So Forest plus a half.

1051
00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 1: For me, Yeah, I'm on the Forest money. I think

1052
00:49:57,160 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 1: that this is a Yeah.

1053
00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 2: Tywa was back too, by the way, but Chris Wood's been.

1054
00:50:01,080 --> 00:50:03,879
Speaker 1: Great, so yeah, I mean come on, yeah, that's right,

1055
00:50:04,440 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 1: you could.

1056
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 3: I guess you didn't watch this well, I mean, I

1057
00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:09,720
Speaker 3: mean that's been much better. Did you watch the Newcastle

1058
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 3: match earlier this season when he turned into mess box?

1059
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 1: I think that's still relevant. I think it's still relevant.

1060
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:27,319
Speaker 1: All right's all three of us on forced here, all right,

1061
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 1: BJ Before we move on to the rest of Europe,

1062
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 1: just quickly, uh talk about your two bets in the

1063
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 1: e f L the Championship playoffs semi finals.

1064
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:40,960
Speaker 3: Yes, congratulations to Leicester and Ipswich coming up to the

1065
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:43,600
Speaker 3: Premier League. We'll talk about it. I switch later, but

1066
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 3: they're gonna get relegated next year. Leads under Daniel Farka,

1067
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 3: this is this is a revenge match Parkable where he's

1068
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:56,080
Speaker 3: he's managed Norwich what once or twice already in his career,

1069
00:50:56,440 --> 00:50:58,319
Speaker 3: brought them up at the Premier League, only to see

1070
00:50:58,360 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 3: them go down Leads. He's turned them into a really

1071
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 3: good out of possession team. They're number one in the

1072
00:51:03,760 --> 00:51:06,319
Speaker 3: Championship and non penalty expected goals allowed, the number one

1073
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:09,880
Speaker 3: basically every single defensive metric because they still have the

1074
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:12,279
Speaker 3: Bielsa DNA where they like to press teams high and

1075
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:14,880
Speaker 3: counterpress them effectively. But they've been very good at slinking

1076
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 3: back into those mid blocks. And Norwich is a team

1077
00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:21,880
Speaker 3: that has really overperformed this season fourteen actual goal differential

1078
00:51:22,040 --> 00:51:26,080
Speaker 3: minus zero point four expected goal differential. It's basically because

1079
00:51:26,080 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 3: of two guys, Gabrielle and John Rowe have combined for

1080
00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 3: twenty five goals off eleven expected. It's been just crazy

1081
00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:34,239
Speaker 3: the o performance between those two guys. Josh Startin's having

1082
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:36,279
Speaker 3: a great season from Norwich this year, hopefully mixed the

1083
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:40,080
Speaker 3: United States and then's national team. But the problem is

1084
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:45,399
Speaker 3: is that David Wagner, if you remember, formerly managed Huddersfield

1085
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:49,359
Speaker 3: and Young Boys, comes from the Jurgen Klop coaching tree.

1086
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:53,239
Speaker 2: Those teams were trying to be.

1087
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 3: High pressing teams and you know, he was having a

1088
00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:57,359
Speaker 3: little bit of success with the Huddersfield the one season

1089
00:51:57,440 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 3: they made it into the Premier League and he got

1090
00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:01,759
Speaker 3: them to survive. He's had Norwich playing a lot more

1091
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:04,319
Speaker 3: passively and it just hasn't worked. They've had really bad

1092
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 3: defensive numbers. So I mean, Leeds was one expected goal

1093
00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:11,239
Speaker 3: behind Leicester for best expect best expected goal of French

1094
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 3: in the Championship. They're like over plus forty. Norwich has

1095
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:17,280
Speaker 3: been even right so like there's a forty goal difference,

1096
00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:22,839
Speaker 3: so I like Leeds plus one point fifteen on the road.

1097
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,759
Speaker 3: And then in the other match West Brom against Southampton.

1098
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:29,840
Speaker 3: Southampton is now this possession dominant team. This is not

1099
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:33,439
Speaker 3: the ralph Hasenhudle transition monsters. Like they control the ball.

1100
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:37,400
Speaker 3: They hold average sixty five percent possession in the Championship

1101
00:52:37,560 --> 00:52:40,040
Speaker 3: most short passes, Like really do a good job building

1102
00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:43,120
Speaker 3: through those lines of pressure because they're averaging the most

1103
00:52:43,160 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 3: expected goals of anybody, and they're playing a West Brom

1104
00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 3: team that has been very passive. It's like your traditional

1105
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:51,240
Speaker 3: West Broms that are four to four to two low blocks,

1106
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:54,359
Speaker 3: second worst passive per defensive action. But West Brom's very

1107
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 3: unique in the fact like they're not a counter attacking team,

1108
00:52:57,840 --> 00:52:59,399
Speaker 3: Like when they get the ball, they want to hold

1109
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:01,480
Speaker 3: it and they want to hold possession themselves, which I

1110
00:53:01,520 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 3: don't think really works against Southampton because they're a very

1111
00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:06,759
Speaker 3: good pressing team. They're number one passes per defensive action

1112
00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:08,759
Speaker 3: and it didn't work in either meeting when they faced them,

1113
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:11,880
Speaker 3: because Southampton beat them twice and the last meeting was

1114
00:53:11,960 --> 00:53:15,680
Speaker 3: at the Hawthorns and Southampton just from the jump took

1115
00:53:15,719 --> 00:53:18,439
Speaker 3: the first seven shots, ended up winning the match to nothing,

1116
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:20,280
Speaker 3: created a one and a half expected goals and basically

1117
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:22,720
Speaker 3: let West Brom do nothing until the match was essentially

1118
00:53:22,719 --> 00:53:26,240
Speaker 3: already over. So Southampton drawn a bat minus one fifteen

1119
00:53:26,280 --> 00:53:28,800
Speaker 3: and leads plus one fifteen in the first leg of

1120
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 3: the two Championship playoffs, and then the reverse fixtures will

1121
00:53:32,120 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 3: be Thursday and Friday.

1122
00:53:33,840 --> 00:53:34,359
Speaker 5: Of next week.

1123
00:53:35,560 --> 00:53:40,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty crazy Farca and Wagner going at it like

1124
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 1: these were. Yeah, they were supposed to be like the

1125
00:53:42,840 --> 00:53:43,560
Speaker 1: next big things.

1126
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:46,360
Speaker 2: And the Barker is a great championship manager.

1127
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 1: Yes, he is an outstanding, great, great voice. I mean that,

1128
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:51,759
Speaker 1: both both of them were fun interviews when they were up.

1129
00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:54,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, leads in Southampton the clear best two teams and

1130
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:55,640
Speaker 4: hopefully we get them in.

1131
00:53:55,640 --> 00:53:57,440
Speaker 2: The final because that would be an electric final.

1132
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I'm tired of these like shit teams.

1133
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:00,719
Speaker 2: I don't want.

1134
00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:03,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't want Norwich up here. West Brom's like okay, like.

1135
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 1: Kind of I like, I like, uh Carlos Corboran, Yeah he's.

1136
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:11,160
Speaker 3: Got okay, But like this Norwich team if they come

1137
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 3: up there, going down immediately, So we're.

1138
00:54:13,480 --> 00:54:18,799
Speaker 1: Just never happens, which is going down easy. I've got

1139
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 1: I've got a pair of Ipswich Towns shorts that my

1140
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:27,880
Speaker 1: soccer coach game he because his brother, his brother played

1141
00:54:27,920 --> 00:54:28,840
Speaker 1: for for I.

1142
00:54:29,760 --> 00:54:31,680
Speaker 3: Know Ed's an avid listener of the show and yes,

1143
00:54:32,400 --> 00:54:34,240
Speaker 3: but your team's going down immediately.

1144
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:38,680
Speaker 1: He sponsors them. Joe Holland and Matt Holland. Joe Holland

1145
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:43,080
Speaker 1: is shout out to the Holland brothers, thank you for

1146
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:47,360
Speaker 1: the Ipswich town shorts. Uh right, Uh. That does it

1147
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 1: for the Premier League section. Before we get into the

1148
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:55,720
Speaker 1: rest of Europe in the Underdog parlay, we will, Anthony

1149
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:57,920
Speaker 1: has an announcement to make. But before we do that,

1150
00:54:58,160 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 1: a reminder that Wonder Goals for was entered by Bet

1151
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 1: three sixty five and Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary.

1152
00:55:03,480 --> 00:55:05,359
Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than anyone else.

1153
00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 1: Every day they power up the odds on hundreds of

1154
00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:09,640
Speaker 1: bets to give you a chance to win more. Bet

1155
00:55:09,680 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 1: three six five boost specific markets, your winnings and even parlays,

1156
00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:14,120
Speaker 1: and they don't stop there. Keep an eye out for

1157
00:55:14,160 --> 00:55:16,560
Speaker 1: their biggest and best odds with the incredible super Boost.

1158
00:55:17,040 --> 00:55:19,280
Speaker 1: Check out the boosts and see why it's never ordinary

1159
00:55:19,280 --> 00:55:22,800
Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five. A disclaimer. You must be

1160
00:55:22,840 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 1: twenty one or older present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

1161
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 1: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older

1162
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:32,080
Speaker 1: in Kentucky. If you or anyone you know has a

1163
00:55:32,120 --> 00:55:34,319
Speaker 1: gambling probably please called winning one hundred gambler or winning

1164
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:38,239
Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions and restrictions apply.

1165
00:55:38,400 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 1: Antony Beflore source.

1166
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:45,920
Speaker 4: So this is my final episode on Wonder Goal as

1167
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:49,399
Speaker 4: a member of the Action Network, and I didn't really

1168
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:51,359
Speaker 4: know what to say, or how to write anything down,

1169
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 4: or what to how to properly express how much this

1170
00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:57,840
Speaker 4: podcasts meant to me over the last We started this

1171
00:55:58,040 --> 00:56:00,760
Speaker 4: in euro twenty twenty one as like a video series,

1172
00:56:01,040 --> 00:56:03,759
Speaker 4: and Chad Millman and company at you know, the higher

1173
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:08,040
Speaker 4: Upside Action Network, they were not too believing in soccer

1174
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:10,600
Speaker 4: and that we could really build a really special podcast

1175
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:14,000
Speaker 4: here and we prove them wrong. And it's been really incredible,

1176
00:56:14,440 --> 00:56:16,520
Speaker 4: you know, from the Euros to the international season, to

1177
00:56:16,560 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 4: the Women's World Cup to the Men's World Cup to

1178
00:56:19,160 --> 00:56:22,160
Speaker 4: you know, doing fifty plus episodes a year in the

1179
00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:24,960
Speaker 4: Champions League, and everything with you guys. It's been incredibly fun.

1180
00:56:25,000 --> 00:56:27,279
Speaker 4: I'm going to miss both of you every Wednesday and

1181
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:30,040
Speaker 4: Sunday night for what's felt like. You know, you guys

1182
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 4: are like family to me now, and so I'm gonna

1183
00:56:32,120 --> 00:56:33,560
Speaker 4: miss it. I'm going to miss the listeners. Thank you

1184
00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:36,239
Speaker 4: to everybody who's listened to me on this show and

1185
00:56:36,560 --> 00:56:39,800
Speaker 4: who's tailed my losers and let me victory lapse the

1186
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:43,360
Speaker 4: occasional winner. And I've learned so much about soccer and

1187
00:56:43,440 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 4: learned so much about betting soccer and just kind of

1188
00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:50,000
Speaker 4: how special it is as Americans talking about a sport

1189
00:56:50,080 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 4: that happens thousands of miles away from us. And I

1190
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:55,319
Speaker 4: really can't thank both of you enough. And I'm going

1191
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:57,920
Speaker 4: to miss everybody here a ton. But yeah, Friday is

1192
00:56:57,920 --> 00:57:00,720
Speaker 4: my last day at Action and I'll have more personal

1193
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 4: news on what's next for me in the coming weeks.

1194
00:57:04,200 --> 00:57:04,319
Speaker 5: Uh.

1195
00:57:04,400 --> 00:57:07,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, you will be missed, And yeah, I do think

1196
00:57:07,719 --> 00:57:11,640
Speaker 1: it's kind of funny that you know, the show now

1197
00:57:11,719 --> 00:57:16,240
Speaker 1: will change and obviously a lot, but uh, you know,

1198
00:57:16,320 --> 00:57:18,520
Speaker 1: BJ and I will be back for for the Euros,

1199
00:57:18,600 --> 00:57:20,800
Speaker 1: So we're right back full circle to where we started

1200
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 1: again with you know, uh more to come. So, yeah,

1201
00:57:26,680 --> 00:57:28,440
Speaker 1: Anthony's the best. We love them.

1202
00:57:28,480 --> 00:57:30,960
Speaker 3: I'll just say I'll just say, yeah, we're definitely gonna

1203
00:57:30,960 --> 00:57:33,160
Speaker 3: miss Anthony. It's obviously gonna be a little weird going

1204
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 3: into the Euros without you've given that, you know where

1205
00:57:36,040 --> 00:57:37,560
Speaker 3: we started with. The three of us have become really

1206
00:57:37,600 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 3: good friends, not just coworkers, really good friends over these

1207
00:57:40,600 --> 00:57:41,640
Speaker 3: past three.

1208
00:57:41,600 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 2: Or so years.

1209
00:57:42,120 --> 00:57:44,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, we've built something up really good here. But you know,

1210
00:57:44,680 --> 00:57:46,280
Speaker 3: for everybody out there, like Michael said, the show is

1211
00:57:46,320 --> 00:57:48,240
Speaker 3: not going anywhere where. Me and Michael will still be here.

1212
00:57:48,280 --> 00:57:50,360
Speaker 3: It'll change a little bit, but we'll be here to

1213
00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:51,400
Speaker 3: give you out your losers.

1214
00:57:51,760 --> 00:57:54,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, and finally we can talk.

1215
00:57:53,920 --> 00:57:58,120
Speaker 1: To yeah, right, and we don't. I feel like it's

1216
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:01,720
Speaker 1: because Clapp is leaving, but yeah, you know, it felt

1217
00:58:01,720 --> 00:58:02,280
Speaker 1: like there.

1218
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 4: Was there's nothing, there's nothing. I'm running out of edge, Yeah, exactly,

1219
00:58:08,080 --> 00:58:10,840
Speaker 4: I'm running out of energy. No that the you know,

1220
00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:12,960
Speaker 4: I'm still gonna be listening every week, so I'm not

1221
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:15,000
Speaker 4: going too far I'll still be on Twitter. I'm still

1222
00:58:15,000 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 4: gonna be kind of in the space, so, you know,

1223
00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 4: not going too far away, but I will be the

1224
00:58:20,760 --> 00:58:23,480
Speaker 4: show's biggest fan and rooting you guys. On and uh,

1225
00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:26,480
Speaker 4: I'm gonna miss uh, you know, doing this again, and

1226
00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 4: that's that's the tough part. It's become such a staple

1227
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:31,440
Speaker 4: in my life. So that's all I have to say.

1228
00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:37,200
Speaker 1: But what a perfect segue to the Bundesliga. Yes, all right,

1229
00:58:37,280 --> 00:58:39,600
Speaker 1: let's get right into it, baby, no time, no time

1230
00:58:39,680 --> 00:58:40,200
Speaker 1: for tears.

1231
00:58:40,560 --> 00:58:44,080
Speaker 4: Uh to the stute Guard pade, or actually be the

1232
00:58:44,120 --> 00:58:45,960
Speaker 4: Osburg Phades, which I'm doing again this week for the

1233
00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:49,240
Speaker 4: fifth straight week. Stutgart minus one twenty. Osburg is just

1234
00:58:49,360 --> 00:58:52,280
Speaker 4: a classic defend encounter German team and they do nothing

1235
00:58:52,320 --> 00:58:55,120
Speaker 4: else but set pieces encounters, and I just think they're

1236
00:58:55,120 --> 00:58:58,080
Speaker 4: gonna overwhelm my Stutguard's press. Stutgart is motoring to the

1237
00:58:58,080 --> 00:59:01,920
Speaker 4: finish line and I like them laying it here on

1238
00:59:02,040 --> 00:59:02,360
Speaker 4: the road.

1239
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:07,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have a rare bet in the rest of

1240
00:59:07,960 --> 00:59:12,920
Speaker 1: Europe here I like Wolfsburg complete spot situation. After Byron

1241
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:16,000
Speaker 1: lost in the Champions League in pretty heartbreaking fashion, it

1242
00:59:16,040 --> 00:59:19,640
Speaker 1: with tukel out the door, and just I would have

1243
00:59:19,720 --> 00:59:22,360
Speaker 1: called the if Byron had made the final and we

1244
00:59:22,440 --> 00:59:26,240
Speaker 1: would have obviously been a pretty decided favorite against Dortmund,

1245
00:59:27,040 --> 00:59:30,720
Speaker 1: it would have ended up being perhaps the most the

1246
00:59:30,840 --> 00:59:34,360
Speaker 1: best disappointing season of all time in soccer, but they

1247
00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:37,960
Speaker 1: didn't get there, so I'm happy to go against them

1248
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:40,600
Speaker 1: here in a severe or severe let that spot BJ.

1249
00:59:41,680 --> 00:59:46,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like something that's not very fun. But Leipzig

1250
00:59:46,800 --> 00:59:48,600
Speaker 3: Werder Bremen under three and a half a plus one

1251
00:59:48,640 --> 00:59:51,080
Speaker 3: ten just kind of a crazy line where you consider

1252
00:59:51,480 --> 00:59:54,800
Speaker 3: how good Leipzig's defense have been has been over essentially

1253
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:56,480
Speaker 3: the second half of the season. They're lying close to

1254
00:59:56,600 --> 00:59:59,640
Speaker 3: one non penalty expectacle for ninety minutes. Verte Bremen's not

1255
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:03,240
Speaker 3: particularly a good offense or a good defense. They're like

1256
01:00:03,320 --> 01:00:07,480
Speaker 3: the prototypical, like average German team. They will probably give

1257
01:00:07,560 --> 01:00:09,720
Speaker 3: up over two XG here to Leipzig, but I don't

1258
01:00:09,720 --> 01:00:11,840
Speaker 3: really think they're creating much in transition against the slip

1259
01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:14,920
Speaker 3: sie team that is also motoring to the finish in

1260
01:00:15,040 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 3: great forms. So under three and a half only projected

1261
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:18,800
Speaker 3: closer to three.

1262
01:00:19,040 --> 01:00:21,240
Speaker 4: So we need to make a mental note ahead of

1263
01:00:21,320 --> 01:00:25,080
Speaker 4: next year from betting purposes that ROSA teams in the

1264
01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:27,880
Speaker 4: second half have just been trucks for three or four years.

1265
01:00:27,960 --> 01:00:31,760
Speaker 1: Now, okay, with that mental note in our pocket, we'll

1266
01:00:31,800 --> 01:00:35,360
Speaker 1: go to Syria. Ah and you can go first here Anthony.

1267
01:00:35,440 --> 01:00:37,640
Speaker 4: Me and BJ both betting unders in different fashions.

1268
01:00:37,680 --> 01:00:37,800
Speaker 1: Here.

1269
01:00:37,880 --> 01:00:39,960
Speaker 4: I like Lazzio Emplee under two and a half at

1270
01:00:40,040 --> 01:00:43,040
Speaker 4: minus one fifteen. This is a classic where you know

1271
01:00:43,120 --> 01:00:47,480
Speaker 4: Emplie's in the relegation picture and you don't need wins

1272
01:00:47,520 --> 01:00:50,120
Speaker 4: to get out of this relegation mix. You need draws,

1273
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:53,040
Speaker 4: and especially with the positioning the Emplies in with four

1274
01:00:53,120 --> 01:00:54,960
Speaker 4: matches to go, they are going to try to lock

1275
01:00:55,040 --> 01:00:57,880
Speaker 4: this down as best as possible. They're leading goal scorer

1276
01:00:57,960 --> 01:01:01,280
Speaker 4: this year four goals. It's kind of amazing that they're

1277
01:01:01,320 --> 01:01:04,840
Speaker 4: not further down the table because they've created the second

1278
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:08,600
Speaker 4: fewest expected goals away from home. They have barely scored

1279
01:01:08,640 --> 01:01:11,880
Speaker 4: all year. They have ten goals and seventeen away matches.

1280
01:01:11,960 --> 01:01:14,160
Speaker 4: So I think Latsio kind of gets a comfortable win here.

1281
01:01:14,560 --> 01:01:17,440
Speaker 4: But I think they're desperation and they're they're wanting to,

1282
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:21,440
Speaker 4: you know, fight to stay up, will keep their defense

1283
01:01:21,520 --> 01:01:25,680
Speaker 4: in this. Latsio defensively has been very quietly elite, elite

1284
01:01:25,720 --> 01:01:28,160
Speaker 4: at home too, so you've got a lotso team that

1285
01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:30,960
Speaker 4: shouldn't be too threatened should win this. You know, one

1286
01:01:30,960 --> 01:01:32,680
Speaker 4: to nil, two nail, but two and a half is

1287
01:01:32,760 --> 01:01:33,600
Speaker 4: high I have this.

1288
01:01:33,640 --> 01:01:37,480
Speaker 1: Closer to two and a quarter two, so Bija.

1289
01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:42,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I like Genoa, so swallow both teams to

1290
01:01:42,240 --> 01:01:47,320
Speaker 3: score no at plus one twenty. Genoa is a low

1291
01:01:47,480 --> 01:01:50,480
Speaker 3: event type team, like their matches are averaging like one

1292
01:01:50,520 --> 01:01:53,840
Speaker 3: point eight non penalty expected goals. They're under one both

1293
01:01:53,880 --> 01:01:58,960
Speaker 3: allowing and creating like they are. They're like Juventus Junior

1294
01:01:59,080 --> 01:02:01,400
Speaker 3: with no good attack is what I would call them.

1295
01:02:02,600 --> 01:02:05,080
Speaker 3: And so Swallow is a team that again has been

1296
01:02:05,160 --> 01:02:07,960
Speaker 3: really bad offensively all season long or sixteenth to non

1297
01:02:08,040 --> 01:02:10,200
Speaker 3: penalty expected goals. Both of these teams I don't really

1298
01:02:10,240 --> 01:02:13,280
Speaker 3: think can create much. So Swallow got a huge win

1299
01:02:13,320 --> 01:02:17,480
Speaker 3: over Nswer to help their fight in terms of relegation,

1300
01:02:18,000 --> 01:02:19,880
Speaker 3: so this is a big match for them. Genoa WA's

1301
01:02:19,920 --> 01:02:23,080
Speaker 3: pretty safe, So I just think this line is a

1302
01:02:23,120 --> 01:02:25,120
Speaker 3: little too inflated with how bad these offenses are.

1303
01:02:25,160 --> 01:02:25,960
Speaker 5: So both team to score.

1304
01:02:26,040 --> 01:02:27,960
Speaker 2: Now for Jena wats to swallow plus one twenty.

1305
01:02:29,040 --> 01:02:34,040
Speaker 1: Okay, that brings us to La Liga. Anthony, we were talking.

1306
01:02:33,840 --> 01:02:37,440
Speaker 4: About Ed Sheeran. How about Barcelona minus one fifteen one

1307
01:02:37,480 --> 01:02:40,560
Speaker 4: of his one of my favorite songs is at home

1308
01:02:40,560 --> 01:02:45,440
Speaker 4: against rightw sociadd sorry for that attempt of singing in

1309
01:02:45,520 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 4: his voice.

1310
01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:47,040
Speaker 5: Thank god you're leaving.

1311
01:02:47,240 --> 01:02:50,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how that's when we go out.

1312
01:02:50,520 --> 01:02:53,560
Speaker 4: I've not been fired. Barcelona minus one fifteen on the

1313
01:02:53,600 --> 01:02:58,880
Speaker 4: money line at home against Sociodod just like a full

1314
01:02:58,920 --> 01:03:01,280
Speaker 4: half goal better. I guess that, like maybe Barsia doesn't

1315
01:03:01,280 --> 01:03:02,560
Speaker 4: care because at the end of the season they can't

1316
01:03:02,600 --> 01:03:05,040
Speaker 4: keep control of the match. But the difference in attacking

1317
01:03:05,080 --> 01:03:07,880
Speaker 4: firepower and quality in this match is so massive that

1318
01:03:08,000 --> 01:03:09,720
Speaker 4: Barcelona should not be this shorter home favor.

1319
01:03:10,040 --> 01:03:14,400
Speaker 3: Kitafe plus a half on the road against Cadiz, Catafe

1320
01:03:14,520 --> 01:03:18,240
Speaker 3: is safe, They're on the beach. Cadiz is fighting off

1321
01:03:18,320 --> 01:03:21,200
Speaker 3: their relegation. They're basically out of it at this point.

1322
01:03:22,160 --> 01:03:23,800
Speaker 3: But we talked about Cadiz a couple weeks ago and

1323
01:03:23,880 --> 01:03:27,800
Speaker 3: they were playing Majorca. They're just a horrific offense that

1324
01:03:27,960 --> 01:03:31,600
Speaker 3: relies on a few counter attacking opportunities and descending crosses. Well,

1325
01:03:31,640 --> 01:03:34,120
Speaker 3: they're facing like essentially the better version of what they

1326
01:03:34,200 --> 01:03:36,520
Speaker 3: ever want to become, which is Katafi, because they played

1327
01:03:36,520 --> 01:03:39,040
Speaker 3: the exact same way, but they play a better defensive

1328
01:03:39,080 --> 01:03:41,960
Speaker 3: block and they're better in transition. So this is just

1329
01:03:42,000 --> 01:03:45,520
Speaker 3: an inflated Cadiz needs to win line, So I like

1330
01:03:45,560 --> 01:03:46,520
Speaker 3: Katafae plus a half.

1331
01:03:47,480 --> 01:03:50,920
Speaker 1: Okay, that brings us to our underdog Parlay And like

1332
01:03:50,960 --> 01:03:54,920
Speaker 1: I said, I wasn't. Anthony tried to sneak just funny

1333
01:03:55,000 --> 01:03:58,600
Speaker 1: forest in, but since it's his last episode, I made

1334
01:03:58,680 --> 01:04:00,920
Speaker 1: him go big or go home, or go bigger then

1335
01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:04,040
Speaker 1: go home. I guess, so you can kid us kicked off.

1336
01:04:03,960 --> 01:04:07,160
Speaker 4: Here Cagulary plus six fifty on the road at Milan.

1337
01:04:08,120 --> 01:04:11,880
Speaker 4: This Milan defense keeps giving up goals for fun. They

1338
01:04:11,920 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 4: are really poor across the board, and their metrics have

1339
01:04:15,960 --> 01:04:20,360
Speaker 4: really taken a dive. They are now down to eleventh

1340
01:04:20,520 --> 01:04:22,800
Speaker 4: and expect a goal is allowed per ninety minutes in

1341
01:04:24,480 --> 01:04:26,720
Speaker 4: Italy this year. And they're still scoring a bunch and

1342
01:04:26,760 --> 01:04:29,640
Speaker 4: they have a very effective attack that's clearly the second

1343
01:04:29,680 --> 01:04:32,760
Speaker 4: best attack in the league. But when you're giving up

1344
01:04:32,760 --> 01:04:35,760
Speaker 4: that many goals against the Calgary team, who you know,

1345
01:04:35,760 --> 01:04:37,400
Speaker 4: I'm not going to get you know, say anything nice

1346
01:04:37,400 --> 01:04:40,880
Speaker 4: about them, but they've only been about three quarters of

1347
01:04:40,880 --> 01:04:42,840
Speaker 4: a goal worse, so they're being priced like they're about

1348
01:04:42,840 --> 01:04:44,720
Speaker 4: a full goal goal and a quarter worse. I don't

1349
01:04:44,760 --> 01:04:46,640
Speaker 4: really agree with that. So I think Milan's vulnerable just

1350
01:04:46,640 --> 01:04:49,400
Speaker 4: because how bad their defense has gotten and it has

1351
01:04:49,480 --> 01:04:52,320
Speaker 4: control to get worse because they're committing more numbers forward

1352
01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:53,880
Speaker 4: and getting more exposed at the back as a result

1353
01:04:53,920 --> 01:04:56,840
Speaker 4: of what they're doing. So go Kylary plus six to fifty.

1354
01:04:57,400 --> 01:05:01,640
Speaker 1: I'm going to go glory, glory, hey man, you knowed.

1355
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:04,120
Speaker 1: I mean, sometimes you just got to trust that there's

1356
01:05:04,120 --> 01:05:07,960
Speaker 1: a little bit of magic left in sports and in

1357
01:05:08,080 --> 01:05:10,720
Speaker 1: the great cathedrals of sports. And I think that a

1358
01:05:11,120 --> 01:05:15,560
Speaker 1: chance to ruin Arsenal's title race, our title bid at

1359
01:05:15,600 --> 01:05:18,880
Speaker 1: Old Trafford is well worth a bet at six to one.

1360
01:05:19,240 --> 01:05:21,160
Speaker 1: I mean, United as a home underdog at six to

1361
01:05:21,240 --> 01:05:23,120
Speaker 1: one is just so great when it's not you know,

1362
01:05:23,560 --> 01:05:27,280
Speaker 1: Manchester City in their salad days. As we talked about

1363
01:05:27,360 --> 01:05:28,640
Speaker 1: right off the jump of the show, there's not too

1364
01:05:28,720 --> 01:05:31,800
Speaker 1: much you can throw at this one from a handicappric

1365
01:05:31,840 --> 01:05:34,560
Speaker 1: perspective that's going to sound, you know, logical and sound.

1366
01:05:34,600 --> 01:05:36,959
Speaker 1: It's just trust that the number is big enough. Trust

1367
01:05:37,000 --> 01:05:39,040
Speaker 1: that this United team has enough talent to make it hard.

1368
01:05:39,520 --> 01:05:41,680
Speaker 1: They've had a couple of results where they've done just that.

1369
01:05:41,920 --> 01:05:46,520
Speaker 1: They've gridded it out twice against Liverpool, so I don't know,

1370
01:05:46,680 --> 01:05:50,320
Speaker 1: one more, come on, Eric one more United six to

1371
01:05:50,440 --> 01:05:52,600
Speaker 1: one for me BJ Yeah, just let.

1372
01:05:52,520 --> 01:05:53,360
Speaker 2: Me kill this thing.

1373
01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:58,880
Speaker 3: On Friday, ala As plus two forty against Girona. Honestly

1374
01:05:58,920 --> 01:06:00,640
Speaker 3: a really good match up here. For I know they

1375
01:06:00,680 --> 01:06:02,800
Speaker 3: didn't play very well against Rona in the previous meeting,

1376
01:06:02,880 --> 01:06:06,400
Speaker 3: but they're a transition based team, primarily because of the

1377
01:06:06,920 --> 01:06:10,080
Speaker 3: quick attackers they have going forward number one in La

1378
01:06:10,200 --> 01:06:12,560
Speaker 3: Liga in final third box entry conversion right, So when

1379
01:06:12,560 --> 01:06:14,800
Speaker 3: they get their transition opportunities, they take advantage of them.

1380
01:06:14,840 --> 01:06:17,040
Speaker 3: And we know that Girona over the course of the

1381
01:06:17,080 --> 01:06:21,560
Speaker 3: season has struggled in transition defense. Droona is already qualified

1382
01:06:21,600 --> 01:06:24,160
Speaker 3: for the Champions League. I understand they're battling for second

1383
01:06:24,200 --> 01:06:26,480
Speaker 3: place and I guess that means something. But what their

1384
01:06:26,560 --> 01:06:29,120
Speaker 3: manager has has said and what's very clear is they

1385
01:06:29,160 --> 01:06:32,000
Speaker 3: are preparing themselves for the Champions League next year, so

1386
01:06:32,040 --> 01:06:34,160
Speaker 3: they're trying new things out, they're trying new tacticle things.

1387
01:06:34,280 --> 01:06:36,720
Speaker 3: So an Alabase team that has won three straight now

1388
01:06:36,760 --> 01:06:39,000
Speaker 3: they beat at Lettico two nothing, South of Vigo to

1389
01:06:39,160 --> 01:06:41,040
Speaker 3: nothing and then beat Valencia every weekend one nothing.

1390
01:06:41,080 --> 01:06:41,760
Speaker 2: They're a hot team.

1391
01:06:42,200 --> 01:06:44,440
Speaker 3: So you know, generally when these teams get on runs

1392
01:06:44,480 --> 01:06:45,600
Speaker 3: towards the end of the season and you say they

1393
01:06:45,640 --> 01:06:47,200
Speaker 3: don't care. Well, it's like if you're on a winning run,

1394
01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:48,439
Speaker 3: you care and you want to keep that going.

1395
01:06:48,560 --> 01:06:50,120
Speaker 2: So Alabas plus two.

1396
01:06:50,040 --> 01:06:54,640
Speaker 1: Forty Alavase, Cagliari and Manchester United, that one pays out

1397
01:06:54,840 --> 01:06:58,360
Speaker 1: just shy of one hundred and seventy eight to one. Okay,

1398
01:06:58,760 --> 01:07:01,680
Speaker 1: let's get to our favorite bets for the upcoming Premier

1399
01:07:01,760 --> 01:07:03,320
Speaker 1: League weekend BJ What do you got?

1400
01:07:03,960 --> 01:07:08,640
Speaker 3: Fulham plus two against Manchester City early Saturday morning at

1401
01:07:08,640 --> 01:07:11,919
Speaker 3: seven thirty am Eastern time. This is an inflated line

1402
01:07:11,960 --> 01:07:14,840
Speaker 3: because City needs to win to stay in the title race.

1403
01:07:15,000 --> 01:07:17,920
Speaker 3: But if you've watched Manchester City over the past three

1404
01:07:18,000 --> 01:07:20,040
Speaker 3: or four weeks, you know what they struggle in transition

1405
01:07:20,200 --> 01:07:22,880
Speaker 3: defense and there has been a couple times where teams

1406
01:07:22,920 --> 01:07:25,280
Speaker 3: have gotten for it and breaked in transition and completed

1407
01:07:25,320 --> 01:07:28,040
Speaker 3: some crosses against them. Well, Fulham has completed the second

1408
01:07:28,080 --> 01:07:30,600
Speaker 3: most crosses of anybody in the Premier League. If we

1409
01:07:30,720 --> 01:07:32,480
Speaker 3: go back to the previous meeting between these two, it

1410
01:07:32,600 --> 01:07:34,760
Speaker 3: was a very weird match that City won five to one,

1411
01:07:35,320 --> 01:07:37,960
Speaker 3: but City only took six shots in the entirety of

1412
01:07:38,040 --> 01:07:41,120
Speaker 3: the whole match, and that was because when Fulham needs

1413
01:07:41,160 --> 01:07:43,320
Speaker 3: to and they want to. They can play a really

1414
01:07:43,400 --> 01:07:46,400
Speaker 3: good compact, low block and stifle City from doing the

1415
01:07:46,480 --> 01:07:48,680
Speaker 3: one thing they want to do, which is play through

1416
01:07:48,840 --> 01:07:51,040
Speaker 3: the middle of the pitch. So this is a decent

1417
01:07:51,080 --> 01:07:53,040
Speaker 3: matchup here for Fulham, who has played much better at

1418
01:07:53,080 --> 01:07:54,760
Speaker 3: Craven Cottage than they have on the road. They have

1419
01:07:54,800 --> 01:07:57,600
Speaker 3: a plus three expected gole differential home, They've beat Arsenal,

1420
01:07:57,640 --> 01:08:00,360
Speaker 3: they've beaten Tottenham at home, so they just held Pool

1421
01:08:00,360 --> 01:08:02,920
Speaker 3: to one expected goal. So I think this to this

1422
01:08:03,120 --> 01:08:05,680
Speaker 3: line is way too inflated for Manchester City. So I

1423
01:08:05,840 --> 01:08:06,640
Speaker 3: like full and plus two.

1424
01:08:07,360 --> 01:08:10,120
Speaker 1: I like not even forced and the money line plus

1425
01:08:10,120 --> 01:08:12,560
Speaker 1: two seventy five against Chelsea is my favorite bet. It's simple.

1426
01:08:12,880 --> 01:08:14,840
Speaker 1: We've been saying it all year. I think it's been

1427
01:08:14,880 --> 01:08:18,600
Speaker 1: one of the trends you can lean into Chelsea on

1428
01:08:18,720 --> 01:08:22,080
Speaker 1: the road especially they just do not punch down well.

1429
01:08:22,680 --> 01:08:26,520
Speaker 1: Draw against Sheffield United, drug against Burnley, draw against Brentford

1430
01:08:27,160 --> 01:08:29,679
Speaker 1: four two loss to Wolves, a loss in the EFL

1431
01:08:29,760 --> 01:08:33,320
Speaker 1: Cup against Middlesbrough, another loss to Wolves, a two nil

1432
01:08:33,360 --> 01:08:35,439
Speaker 1: loss to Evertt and a two nil loss to Brentford.

1433
01:08:35,479 --> 01:08:37,920
Speaker 1: A one nil loss to these tricky Trees. This this

1434
01:08:38,040 --> 01:08:42,040
Speaker 1: team just they can lose to anybody in this league,

1435
01:08:42,160 --> 01:08:44,120
Speaker 1: even a really bad west Ham team who I know,

1436
01:08:44,160 --> 01:08:46,240
Speaker 1: they just pasted them five nothing. They lost right off

1437
01:08:46,280 --> 01:08:47,640
Speaker 1: the jump of the season three to one to them.

1438
01:08:48,280 --> 01:08:51,200
Speaker 1: So I'm going to continue to lean into that and

1439
01:08:51,320 --> 01:08:55,920
Speaker 1: take a shot with Forrest in a essentially a must

1440
01:08:55,920 --> 01:09:01,320
Speaker 1: wind spot for the Tricky Trees Anthony episode. So we'll

1441
01:09:01,360 --> 01:09:03,439
Speaker 1: leave the last bet to you and you can take

1442
01:09:03,520 --> 01:09:03,800
Speaker 1: us home.

1443
01:09:04,120 --> 01:09:07,360
Speaker 4: Tottenham Burnley under four minus one five. These are two

1444
01:09:07,439 --> 01:09:10,960
Speaker 4: teams who have had awful problems defending set pieces all

1445
01:09:11,040 --> 01:09:12,960
Speaker 4: year long. It's cost them a ton of goals. But

1446
01:09:14,000 --> 01:09:16,040
Speaker 4: neither team's good at attacking set pieces, so I think

1447
01:09:16,040 --> 01:09:19,000
Speaker 4: that kind of limits the damage maybe that these defenses

1448
01:09:19,040 --> 01:09:21,560
Speaker 4: will see from set pieces, because Burnley and Spurs have

1449
01:09:21,640 --> 01:09:25,200
Speaker 4: created the second and fewest expected goals from set pieces

1450
01:09:25,280 --> 01:09:27,040
Speaker 4: this season. So you combine that with the fact that

1451
01:09:27,920 --> 01:09:29,639
Speaker 4: you know Burnley is still a bottom three or four

1452
01:09:29,640 --> 01:09:31,840
Speaker 4: attacking team. They're not very good at crossing either, which

1453
01:09:31,920 --> 01:09:35,320
Speaker 4: is with Burnley. You know Tottenham has seen their defense

1454
01:09:35,360 --> 01:09:38,240
Speaker 4: get exposed by teams that can cross, especially those back

1455
01:09:38,280 --> 01:09:40,400
Speaker 4: post runs that have been killing them for weeks. You're

1456
01:09:40,400 --> 01:09:41,679
Speaker 4: not going to see a ton of that from Burnley,

1457
01:09:41,720 --> 01:09:43,600
Speaker 4: So I do like the under here at four. I

1458
01:09:43,680 --> 01:09:46,040
Speaker 4: think it's kind of crazy, and I know I said

1459
01:09:46,479 --> 01:09:48,919
Speaker 4: earlier in this podcast that you know, I'm not necessarily

1460
01:09:48,960 --> 01:09:50,960
Speaker 4: betting on the league to regress this year toward like

1461
01:09:51,080 --> 01:09:53,240
Speaker 4: more normal Premier League, but this is one of the

1462
01:09:53,280 --> 01:09:55,040
Speaker 4: few totals that has gotten crazy.

1463
01:09:54,760 --> 01:09:55,160
Speaker 5: Out of hand.

1464
01:09:55,240 --> 01:09:59,760
Speaker 4: So under four floor's yours that will do it for

1465
01:10:00,280 --> 01:10:03,680
Speaker 4: my final episode of Wonder Goal. Thanks to everybody who

1466
01:10:03,720 --> 01:10:06,040
Speaker 4: has listened to my voice on this channel for the

1467
01:10:06,120 --> 01:10:09,240
Speaker 4: last three years, and BJ and Michael will be back

1468
01:10:09,479 --> 01:10:12,639
Speaker 4: on Monday. The show will go on in my absence,

1469
01:10:13,680 --> 01:10:16,120
Speaker 4: and continue to listen to them, continue to download, subscribe,

1470
01:10:16,800 --> 01:10:19,320
Speaker 4: tell a friend, and thank you again to our producer

1471
01:10:19,400 --> 01:10:22,599
Speaker 4: Noah who's produced so many of these shows and listen

1472
01:10:22,680 --> 01:10:24,320
Speaker 4: to way too much of my voice over the last

1473
01:10:24,320 --> 01:10:27,200
Speaker 4: few years. Thank you again to Bjay and Leeboff, and

1474
01:10:27,320 --> 01:10:29,679
Speaker 4: thank you all to the listeners for listening and tune

1475
01:10:29,720 --> 01:10:32,960
Speaker 4: in Monday as BJA and leebof prepare to tell you

1476
01:10:33,080 --> 01:10:36,599
Speaker 4: why Tottenham might just spoil the party and give Arsenal

1477
01:10:37,240 --> 01:10:39,439
Speaker 4: a league title for BJ, which I wouldn't want to

1478
01:10:39,479 --> 01:10:41,720
Speaker 4: be around to listen to anyway. If Arsenal did win

1479
01:10:41,760 --> 01:10:44,120
Speaker 4: the league, so maybe it's better that I'm out and

1480
01:10:44,280 --> 01:10:55,240
Speaker 4: thank you to everybody once again, and that's all. Action

1481
01:10:55,439 --> 01:10:59,800
Speaker 4: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

1482
01:10:59,840 --> 01:11:02,320
Speaker 4: you who care about has a gambling problem, help is

1483
01:11:02,360 --> 01:11:05,439
Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler