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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game ju us prow read.

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Speaker 2: Enough no running again, so smooth, so sweet, slipid sixteen

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Speaker 2: just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty

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Speaker 2: percent effort, four thousand percent of the time. How shot

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Speaker 2: with that?

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Speaker 3: Shop with mind?

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Speaker 1: Good buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying. The one is.

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Speaker 2: Left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 1: Drilled bibus how old Earth? Pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hollory one and welcome back to Wondergold, the soccer betting

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Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Liba,

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Speaker 4: and joining me for this handicap adventure our b J

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Speaker 4: Cunningham and Anthony Debundo. Right off the top, I'll let

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Speaker 4: you know that as always we have a three like

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Speaker 4: underdog parlay to give out at the end of the show.

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Speaker 4: This one is going to come in at two hundred

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Speaker 4: and fourteen to one, so stick around for that. But

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Speaker 4: before we get to there, we're going to go through

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Speaker 4: the EFL Cup Final between Chelsea and Liverpool. The eight

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Speaker 4: Premier League matches over the weekend touch on Bundesliga Syria

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Speaker 4: a La Liga League. Oh, give out that aforementioned whopper

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Speaker 4: of a parlay, and then our best bets for the

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Speaker 4: Premier League coming up. But before we do all of that,

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Speaker 4: a reminder that wonder Goal is proudly presented by Bet

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Speaker 4: three sixty five and Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary.

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Speaker 4: That's why you get more boosts with them than anybody else.

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Speaker 4: Every day they power up odds on hundreds of bets

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Speaker 4: three sixty five boosts specific markets your winnings and even parlays.

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Speaker 4: And they don't stop there, Anthony, No, they don't keep

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Speaker 4: an eye out for their biggest and best odds with

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Speaker 4: the incredible super boosts. Check out the boost and see

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Speaker 4: why it's never ordinary at Bet three six five. You

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Speaker 4: must be twenty one or older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 4: If you have a gambling problem or no someone who

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Speaker 4: has one it wants help, please call one eight hundred

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Speaker 4: gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms,

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Speaker 4: conditions and restrictions apply. Okay, I will start with the

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Speaker 4: EFL Cup Final Liverpool and Chelsea here. This is taking

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Speaker 4: place Sunday ten am at Wembley. Chelsea plus two hundred,

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Speaker 4: Liverpool a plus one twenty five favorite.

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Speaker 3: The draw here is plus to sixty.

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Speaker 4: I kind of want to make maybe my first bet

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Speaker 4: of the season on Liverpool here. I think I'd rather

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Speaker 4: bet Liverpool than than Chelsea. The only problem is I

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Speaker 4: don't know who's gonna be around to play for Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: BJA.

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Speaker 1: I agree, I mean we are we have the benefit

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Speaker 1: obviously of just seeing this match two weeks ago at

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Speaker 1: Anfield and let's just say Chelsea got throttled like run

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Speaker 1: out of the park at fort or Sandfield. This is

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Speaker 1: not a neutral field. It is in London. But the

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Speaker 1: problem of how Chelsea was setting up against Liverpool. You know,

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Speaker 1: Chelsea is a good team and why they've stepped up

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Speaker 1: in competition obviously have drawn with City twice and drawn

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Speaker 1: with Arsenal is because they're just flat out a better

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Speaker 1: team against the big boys when they were able to

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Speaker 1: just sit deep in a little block and play in transition.

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Speaker 1: That doesn't really work with Liverpool because they also want

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Speaker 1: to play in transition. So Chelsea kind of got caught

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Speaker 1: in this in between type of match. So they were

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Speaker 1: playing a high defensive line and they were kind of

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Speaker 1: doing what Villa does, Like they were playing a high

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Speaker 1: defensive line, but they weren't really applying much ball pressure

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Speaker 1: to Liverpool's back line. So Liverpool would just overload five

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Speaker 1: on the last line and just send long balls up

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Speaker 1: all match. And since Chelsea didn't apply a lot of pressure,

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Speaker 1: I mean they had a one high turnover in sixteen

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Speaker 1: point five was their pass per defensive action. I mean

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Speaker 1: when Uniaz was just making runs off the last line,

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Speaker 1: he had eleven shots in the match. I think that

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Speaker 1: might have been the highest shot total of anybody during

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Speaker 1: the Premier League season so far. So I mentioned to

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Speaker 1: see what Chelsea does. They might go with a little

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Speaker 1: more aggressive approach. You know, Connor Gallagher has been pressing

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Speaker 1: from the front line the last few matches, so we'll see.

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Speaker 1: You know, obviously, pressing Liverpool with that much intensity is

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Speaker 1: a very dangerous game to play with how good they

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Speaker 1: are in transition, So we'll see what Chelsea does here.

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Speaker 1: The biggest thing, like you said, Michael, it has to

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Speaker 1: be who's playing for Liverpool right, because they started Gakpo

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Speaker 1: Diaz and Elliott up top against Lutontown on Wednesday and

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Speaker 1: it was very clear that, you know, they are very

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Speaker 1: missing Sala and Nunez in terms of finishing because it

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Speaker 1: was I know, they created four expected goals, but my goodness,

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Speaker 1: like I mean, they could have had four in the

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Speaker 1: first half against Luton and they were just you know,

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Speaker 1: weren't finishing well in front of the net. So I

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Speaker 1: think if Salad and Nuniaz both play. I like the

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Speaker 1: price in Liverpool. You know, I projected them in minus

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Speaker 1: one twelve on a neutral field. I also liked the

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Speaker 1: o over two and a half of minus one forty three.

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Speaker 1: You know, Liverpool is still without Trent. They're gonna be

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Speaker 1: without Allison for a long period of time, so the

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Speaker 1: defense can be get at like you saw it with

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Speaker 1: Looton Down today. The Louten Down did have chances on

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Speaker 1: the break and Chelsea can do that to them here.

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Speaker 1: Even you know, Chelsea did score against Liverpool the last time.

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Speaker 1: So I do like the over and I like Liverpool

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Speaker 1: as well. If Noonti is insolible.

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Speaker 2: Play, yeah, I think, you know, so the market's taking

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Speaker 2: a ton of Chelsea money. This was minus one ten

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Speaker 2: about a week ago when we first discussed it off

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Speaker 2: AIRBJ and it has taken a lot of Chelsea money

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Speaker 2: as a result of just the injuries. I mean, Nunia's

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Speaker 2: and Sola are the two most important players in this match.

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Speaker 2: We don't know their status. I think they're both going

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Speaker 2: to play just based on you know, the fact they

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Speaker 2: didn't get risk at all today. It makes me think

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Speaker 2: that Klopp is like pretty confident that they're going to

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Speaker 2: be fine for Sunday to play, especially Sala, who is

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Speaker 2: more so dealing with fatigue, whereas Nunia's did pick up

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Speaker 2: a knock in the match over the weekend. So if

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Speaker 2: they're both in, yeah, I think it has to be Liverpool.

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Speaker 2: But I also think the over is good too. I mean,

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Speaker 2: why isn't this three? Yeah for me, it should be three,

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Speaker 2: and it's two and a half. You lay a little

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Speaker 2: bit of juice minus one forty. You could take two

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Speaker 2: and three quarters. Lay Colcher to minus one ten. It's fine.

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Speaker 3: But there were.

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Speaker 2: Fifty three total attacking penalty area touches in the first

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Speaker 2: in the last meeting there were fifty four in the

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Speaker 2: first meeting. So regardless of you know whether how who

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Speaker 2: controlled it. You go back to the first meeting, which

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Speaker 2: was literally the opening day of the season, thirty two

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Speaker 2: for Chelsea twenty two for Liverpool. The second meeting was

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Speaker 2: forty four to nine in favor of Liverpool. Twelve high

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Speaker 2: turnovers you talked about a BJA. Chelsea still were able

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Speaker 2: to complete a lot of passes. It was just they

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Speaker 2: had a ton of extra mistakes in there, so they

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Speaker 2: weren't able to play through it a good amount. It

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Speaker 2: was just when they did, they got to the penalty

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Speaker 2: area and then did nothing, and then when they didn't

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Speaker 2: it was an immediate opportunity for Liverpool. So I think

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Speaker 2: you know the injury situation for Liverpool too. It doesn't

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Speaker 2: just end a forward, but with Alison out I think

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Speaker 2: you know, of course, it's like downgrade and shot stopping

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Speaker 2: and Nico Jackson's I mean, he didn't play the reverse

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Speaker 2: fixture the match at Anfield, and that I think really

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Speaker 2: contributed to Chelsea not really having an option as an

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Speaker 2: outlet in that match.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna have their.

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Speaker 2: Full compliment of attacking options available in this match as well,

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Speaker 2: and so I know there's it was like a running

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Speaker 2: bit with a while in this matchup, they played three

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Speaker 2: straight matches with over two and a half expected goals

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Speaker 2: that all ended nil nil two in a cup finals

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Speaker 2: one in the league. You know, I know it's a

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Speaker 2: cup final, so you generally expect like a Cage year

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Speaker 2: type of thing, and that that, you know, seems to

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Speaker 2: be priced in here. But I don't really think either

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Speaker 2: of these teams wants to play that kind of style.

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Speaker 2: So it's going to be over nothing for me in Liverpool. Nothing.

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Speaker 2: I agree with both of you guys. I'm going to

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Speaker 2: wait a little bit to see if we can't get

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Speaker 2: more news on injuries. Liverpool played Wednesday an enthralling victory

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Speaker 2: at home against Lootontown and we haven't heard from Klopp

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Speaker 2: yet at least probably until tomorrow and in terms of

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Speaker 2: what the injuries look like for the weekend. So I'm

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Speaker 2: going to kind of wait, Matt and see if we

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Speaker 2: can get more info. And I will have the preview

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Speaker 2: for this game in the Action Network app and website

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Speaker 2: up Saturday, so we'll get more information and I'll have

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Speaker 2: a bet for that.

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Speaker 4: Okay, onto the Premier League. Then we'll start with Villa

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Speaker 4: and forrest Aston. Villa is laying minus one eighty eight

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Speaker 4: at home hosting Forest plus four p fifty.

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Speaker 3: The draw is plus three thirty three. Both of these.

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Speaker 4: Teams coming off of wins over the weekend. Forrest I

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Speaker 4: thought was quite impressive. Actually their last couple games now

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Speaker 4: for Forrest, and that kind of lends into where we're

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Speaker 4: going to go here. The win against west Ham was

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Speaker 4: was just really impressive, and even like you know, the

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Speaker 4: three two loss to Newcastle.

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Speaker 3: Was just weird more than anything.

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Speaker 4: When you look at there was about one and a

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Speaker 4: half expected goals total between the two sides and it

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Speaker 4: finishes three to two to Newcastle kind of tells you how.

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Speaker 3: That one was played out.

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Speaker 4: Put Forth a decent effort against tough bourn Mith team

185
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Speaker 4: in a one to one draw in the game before that,

186
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Speaker 4: so they're trending in the right direction.

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Speaker 3: I think.

188
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Speaker 4: Meanwhile, Villa is just wobbly and their recent record shows

189
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Speaker 4: that right two wins, two losses of the last four.

190
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Speaker 4: Before that, it was that nil nil draw against Everton,

191
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Speaker 4: which I think was probably the fair score line. So

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Speaker 4: it's just not been all that impressive. So I think

193
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Speaker 4: you're catching a decent number here on Forrest in a

194
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Speaker 4: in the spot I want to back them, like I

195
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Speaker 4: want to try to go against Villa when they're at

196
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Speaker 4: these kind of prices at this point in the season.

197
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Speaker 3: I think they're getting.

198
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Speaker 4: A little bit too much credit for what they've done

199
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Speaker 4: over the course of the season rather than where they

200
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Speaker 4: are right now.

201
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Speaker 3: Anthony, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 2: Agree entirely through Forrest. In the app first bet I

203
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Speaker 2: made for the New match Week back on Sunday, was

204
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Speaker 2: kind of shocked that there was a one and a

205
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Speaker 2: half minus one forty five out there. Those are still

206
00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:58,319
Speaker 2: those are gone now, but you can still get plus

207
00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:01,240
Speaker 2: one minus one ten. I think that's f here. I

208
00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:04,320
Speaker 2: don't have this as a full goal. I know it's

209
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Speaker 2: crazy if you just take like the season long data

210
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Speaker 2: and you say, oh, Villa has been this good, Forrest's

211
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Speaker 2: been this good. Should be about a goal and a

212
00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:15,199
Speaker 2: quarter ish. But as you start to look into you know,

213
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Speaker 2: a little bit beyond just like season long form, and

214
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Speaker 2: you look more recent form and injury situation, everything points

215
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Speaker 2: to Forest here. Matchup wise, I think this is good

216
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Speaker 2: for Forrest. Since Nuno took over, they've created twelve point

217
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Speaker 2: two expected goals conceded nine point five. They've been positive

218
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Speaker 2: from an XG difference perspective. They even played almost a

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Speaker 2: whole match down a man and had those numbers as well.

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Speaker 2: The schedule has been a little bit below average. You know,

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Speaker 2: some boorn myth in there and it's one of their

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Speaker 2: tougher games, but they also played Arsenal. They were pretty

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Speaker 2: competitive in that one as well, so it's not like

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Speaker 2: you know, they've been uncompetitive. Outplayed Newcastle and outplayed west

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Speaker 2: Ham pretty comfortably last weekend, so you know, you see

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Speaker 2: the effect that Taiwle has on this team. Close control,

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Speaker 2: turn and score against west Ham in a half that

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Speaker 2: didn't have a ton at either end really and kind

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Speaker 2: of him being the difference, I think it makes a

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Speaker 2: huge upgrade to them. And now they have all their

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Speaker 2: Afcan guys back in the defense in the midfield, so

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Speaker 2: I think you have your most dynamic and effective for

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Speaker 2: his team against a Villa team that comes into this.

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Speaker 2: Their defensive numbers have been on a continued slide pretty

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Speaker 2: much since the opening week or opening month of the season,

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Speaker 2: and that trend line continues with the fact that now

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Speaker 2: that Consa and Kamara and Diego Carlos are out, it

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Speaker 2: just their defensive numbers are really flawed. They're giving up

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Speaker 2: one point seventy five xtgal P ninety in the last

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Speaker 2: two and a half months. It's a pretty big sample.

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Speaker 2: And the like I said, the trend line, it's not

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Speaker 2: great podcasting, but like the trend line is straight in

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Speaker 2: the wrong direction in terms of conceding too many chances. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, we saw this matchup earlier this year and

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Speaker 2: Forrest hit him early and then kind of just sat

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Speaker 2: very deep and just absorbed pressure. I do think Forrest

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Speaker 2: comes into this and so it's extremely deep. I think

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Speaker 2: they'll be able to hit on the brake even while

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Speaker 2: it's nil nil and Villas, you know, not gonna get

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Speaker 2: those chances to get in behind themselves because FoST sits

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Speaker 2: so so deep that I think that, you know, this

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Speaker 2: Villa team which has been pretty much league average, and

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Speaker 2: you're even seeing Emory kind of suggesting it in the

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Speaker 2: press where he's like, look, there's like seventeens better than us.

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Speaker 2: Pretty true, and this race for the top four is

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Speaker 2: going to be really fascinating because like nobody's that good

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Speaker 2: after the top three. Like I think it's it's really interesting. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: Spurs and Villa have the most points. Spurs are in

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Speaker 2: the best in terms of health right now, like everybody's

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Speaker 2: available for Tottenham, but then they go lose to to

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Speaker 2: Wolves without their fullbacks. So the top four race is

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Speaker 2: heating up. Man United is making a run, but like

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Speaker 2: obviously we don't really believe in them, so it probably

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Speaker 2: just gonna be is Tottenham or Villa by default. It's

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Speaker 2: based on what's left. Tottenham have a tougher schedule, they

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Speaker 2: go to Villa, but Villa are playing worse. Right now,

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Speaker 2: Tottenham are power rated higher. I think I agree with that.

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Speaker 2: So now it becomes very fast sitting on like how

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Speaker 2: to determine this race, and you know, you know, like

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Speaker 2: even if you were looking for a team to make

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Speaker 2: a run, it's like probably Brighten is your best bet.

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Speaker 2: Eighty one eighty to one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah for top top four. There are like six or

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Speaker 1: seven to one for top six.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, that is really interesting. It's just there's not

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Speaker 2: a clear option to make a run. Nobody's like rounding

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Speaker 2: into form. Everybody's just kind of teetering. After the top three.

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Speaker 2: We talked about like nobody playing defense, and that's kind

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Speaker 2: of the whole thing of it. Right now. The league

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Speaker 2: is just drunk and nobody plays defense. After the top three,

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Speaker 2: and so anybody can beat anybody in any given day,

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Speaker 2: and nobody is putting themselves in a position where like, oh,

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Speaker 2: this team could really turn a corner here and wheel

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Speaker 2: off five wins in a row. I don't really know

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Speaker 2: who that is. I mean, technically United just did it,

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Speaker 2: but you know, I'm not totally sure that there's a

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Speaker 2: contender right now. So I think based solely off of personnel,

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Speaker 2: it would be Tattenham, but not inspired.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I'll basically bet Brighton to do anything at

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Speaker 4: eighty one, so.

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Speaker 1: We will blis, wait for Everton to be a lot

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Speaker 1: of points, then we'll get one hundred to one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. All right, let's skip to Arsenal Newcastle next. UH.

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Speaker 4: Arsenal is coming off of a a really hard fought

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Speaker 4: loss to UH to scrappy, scrappy, scrappy Arsenal losing to

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Speaker 4: UH to Porto in the in the Champions League one nil.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 4: They are kind of come back to England lick their

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Speaker 4: wounds as a minus two seventy five favorite against Newcastle United.

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Speaker 4: I say this a lot, but have you if you

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Speaker 4: just read me these odds on September first, that Newcastle

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Speaker 4: will be seven to one at Arsenal. I just give

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Speaker 4: my head a shake and it goes back to what

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Speaker 4: I said and I've been saying, not just for when

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Speaker 4: we do preview podcasts, for like this this show, but

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Speaker 4: in the NHL two is weird. Stuff just happened over

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Speaker 4: the course of a season, and you always just got

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Speaker 4: to remember that, and that's very No team exemplifies that

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Speaker 4: more than Newcastle this season. The draw here is four

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Speaker 4: to one. I'm tempted by the price on Newcastle, just

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Speaker 4: because I know that they should have a higher ceiling

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Speaker 4: than what they've shown. But before we get to UBJ Anthony,

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Speaker 4: you're gonna go the other way here, and I'm curious why.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm back in Arsenal minus one and a half

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Speaker 2: plus one, ten plus one fifteen. We got a few

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Speaker 2: extra sins today after their loss to Porte and the

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Speaker 2: Champions League, which the Arsenal squad created point zero nine

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Speaker 2: XG from open play at Porteo. The ball is in

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Speaker 2: play for fifty two minutes. It was an I kid

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Speaker 2: you not. I have watched so many soccer matches this year.

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Speaker 2: I have watched two lower level Premier League teams. I've

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Speaker 2: watched siia A matches that never had a chance of

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Speaker 2: having more than one goal. I've watched Las Palmas versus Valencia.

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Speaker 2: Today was the worst match that I have watched all season.

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Speaker 2: And I know it was the stakes of it, like

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Speaker 2: it was exciting, Oh, it's the Champions League and you

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Speaker 2: know we're rooting on Arsenal for the future. But it

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Speaker 2: was awful. I mean, every possession ended in a foul.

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Speaker 2: They would take five minutes to line up the set piece,

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Speaker 2: they would fight each other before they even had the

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Speaker 2: ball put in the box. Then the ref would have

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Speaker 2: to break it up, and then the set piece would

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Speaker 2: result in nothing, and then we would just keep doing

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Speaker 2: the same cycle.

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Speaker 1: It was.

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Speaker 2: It was like just the worst soccer match I've watched.

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Speaker 2: The ball was never in play and they were never

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Speaker 2: doing anything. And for port Though, it was just long

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Speaker 2: balls over the press or trying to draw fouls off

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Speaker 2: of it, and for Arsenal it was ball circulation, ball retention,

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Speaker 2: and then eventually they would not get anywhere and have

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Speaker 2: to try to draw set piece. So it was awful.

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Speaker 2: It's everything that's wrong with Arsenal in that exact match.

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Speaker 2: It's just sometimes they don't have it and they don't

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Speaker 2: create enough and they're two control oriented and they don't

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Speaker 2: have a superstar, you know soccer's borderline, but like they

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Speaker 2: don't have like the game winner. And with that being said,

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Speaker 2: I don't really think it matters. Now they come home

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Speaker 2: and if they beat Porto in two or three weeks,

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Speaker 2: which they probably will, they're going to be minus two

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Speaker 2: seventy five, probably three hundred to win. That probably minus

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Speaker 2: to twenty to advance. Shouldn't have problems, no away goals anymore.

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Speaker 2: Nobody will care about the fact they lost to Porto.

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Speaker 2: But I think if you want to chase Arsenal here,

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Speaker 2: they're not really that inflated. Based on just form weighted numbers.

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Speaker 2: This Newcastle defense has gone on the road against three

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Speaker 2: of the Big six in the last two months since

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Speaker 2: the since the capitulation of their numbers. They gave up

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Speaker 2: seven expected goals to Liverpool, three plus to City, three

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Speaker 2: plus to Tottenham. They did get two at home against

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Speaker 2: City on the break to keep that match competitive, but

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Speaker 2: then when they were up to one they couldn't hold

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Speaker 2: out for life. They just got ripped open. And now

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Speaker 2: like this injury situation, East Soak I think is back.

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Speaker 2: It's not clear that he's back, so maybe he plays

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Speaker 2: a half and Wilson is out, but they lose Joe Linton,

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Speaker 2: you know, early January he goes under the knife surgery

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Speaker 2: and the amount of attacking production they were getting from him,

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Speaker 2: the ball winning, the running, the energy gone. He was

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Speaker 2: covering for burn really well. Joe Willett can do that.

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Speaker 2: But now he's been out, so like there's just no

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Speaker 2: way that they're going to be able to slow down

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Speaker 2: Arsenal on the wings here and I think Arsenal is

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Speaker 2: going to get space and transition and from that point

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Speaker 2: forward it's going to be a really tough challenge for

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Speaker 2: Newcastle to stay in. This game is a Newcastle Newcastle

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Speaker 2: team that you know at home against Bournemouth and what

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Speaker 2: we thought was like a pretty good spot for them.

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Speaker 2: We were like, oh, you know, I was happy to

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Speaker 2: go against them because their numbers. They just concede two

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Speaker 2: or three big chances every match and it's the same

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Speaker 2: pattern of play that results in this. So I think

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Speaker 2: Arsenal can exploit it. I think Socca and Martinelli will

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Speaker 2: have space. Maybe we can get Gabby jay Zeus in

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Speaker 2: there to miss some chances and create because I'd like

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Speaker 2: to see him back. But I think this Arsenal team, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: they're gonna have dates where they don't have it, and

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Speaker 2: they're gonna have great days. They're still a great team.

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Speaker 2: I said the same thing last week, Like Arsenal is

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Speaker 2: very good. They're not any better than they were two

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Speaker 2: weeks ago. They're not any worse than they were a

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Speaker 2: month ago. They're still one of the best teams in

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Speaker 2: the world, probably the second, maybe third waterline game in

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Speaker 2: the prem And you know, I think that this is

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Speaker 2: a great matchup for them because Newcastle is not gonna

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Speaker 2: get anything against this elite defense, and they're gonna give

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Speaker 2: up two or three big chances. Hopefully a couple go

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Speaker 2: in and Arsenal wins this, you know, two nail three

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Speaker 2: to one.

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Speaker 1: All Right, I'm gonna take things in a little bit

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Speaker 1: bit of a different direction here. I think now is

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Speaker 1: the time to buy on Arsenal to win the Premier

403
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Speaker 1: League at plus four seventy, which is the best price

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Speaker 1: you can find right now. If we just look at

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Speaker 1: pure expecting gol differential, Arsenal is sitting at plus one

406
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Speaker 1: point twenty nine per ninety that's the best in the

407
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Speaker 1: Premier League. It's actually pretty significantly better than City Liverpool

408
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:01,720
Speaker 1: act to a bunch against Loutons, so they've closed the

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00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 1: gap on that. What it comes down to is that

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Speaker 1: Arsenal is We've said it many times, the best out

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Speaker 1: of possession team in the world and they just continually

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Speaker 1: keep getting better and better. They are allowing point six

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Speaker 1: to six non penalty x chiep for ninety minutes point

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Speaker 1: six to six. They have only can see it, eight

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Speaker 1: big scoring chances this season. Nobody, nobody has created over

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Speaker 1: one and a half expected goals against them. That is

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Speaker 1: how good they are out of possession. You cannot play

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Speaker 1: and transition against them. That are is very, very difficult

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Speaker 1: to build out of the back against them, and that's

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Speaker 1: happened when they've faced the top tier teams in the

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Speaker 1: Premier League. Six matches against the Big six, Tottenham is

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Speaker 1: the only team that has created over one non penalty

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Speaker 1: expected goal against them, and if you remember, it was

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Speaker 1: basically all off of o Georgino just slip mistake where

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00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:55,919
Speaker 1: Tottenham broke and they scored. Arsenal hasn't lost any of

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Speaker 1: those six matches either. So with and you know, I

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Speaker 1: get it. You know, losers like Anthony will say, well,

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Speaker 1: Arsenal's not good enough in open play. Oh they only

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Speaker 1: created point one against Porto. Oh the sky's falling. So

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Speaker 1: far this Premier League, Arsenal has thirty four expected goals

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Speaker 1: from open play. City has thirty eight and after today,

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Speaker 1: Liverpool's at forty three with a game in hand. So

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Speaker 1: what has Arsenal done to make up that ground. They've

434
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 1: turned into an elite set piece team. Sixteen goals off

435
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 1: a set pieces, fourth and next sheeper set piece. Way

436
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 1: better than City, way better than Liverpool. So this is

437
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 1: an elite offense, not just you know, they are good

438
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 1: from open play and then they're eleade on set pieces,

439
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 1: which by in turn makes them an elite offense. Now

440
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:41,880
Speaker 1: let's talk about Manchester City because they have one win

441
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 1: against the Big six this year and it's against that

442
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:48,679
Speaker 1: garbage Manchester United team. They've drawn Chelsea twice, they've drawn Tottenham,

443
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:53,480
Speaker 1: they've lost to Arsenal twice, they've drawn Liverpool, and suddenly

444
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 1: everybody thinks they're just going to walk to the title.

445
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,879
Speaker 1: Over the second half of the season. Everybody, every pundit says,

446
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,400
Speaker 1: well said he's gonna go walk to the title. Nice,

447
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 1: nice try, Arsenal, Nice try. And your farewell to our clop.

448
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,159
Speaker 1: But it's Manchester City. Nobody can stop them. They're the

449
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 1: best team in the world. Nobody can play, nobody can

450
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 1: even be on the same field as them. Again, if

451
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 1: one win against the Big six, it just is a

452
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 1: pattern now that shows that teams have been able to

453
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 1: hit them on the break. They're not as good defensively

454
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 1: as they were last year. I'll get into that deeper

455
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 1: when we talk about Manchester City and Bournemouth and their

456
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 1: schedule to end the season is not as easy as

457
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 1: everybody thinks it is. They have a four game stretch

458
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:37,360
Speaker 1: where they have to play at Liverpool, at Brighton, at

459
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 1: home against aston Villa and then at home against Arsenal,

460
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 1: and then later on in the season they gotta go

461
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:45,440
Speaker 1: too tot and I'm sandwiched in between a Champions League quarterfinal.

462
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,680
Speaker 1: So Arsenal's gonna play City, I believe on March thirty first,

463
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 1: and that's God is gonna be a huge match here

464
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 1: for the title. But with City being worse out of possession,

465
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,880
Speaker 1: having worse underlying numbers than Arsenal, Arsenal being the most

466
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: tactically diverse team the world, I know they didn't show

467
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 1: it today against Porto, who played perfect out of possession. Like,

468
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 1: that's the only team that's really played absolutely perfect to

469
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: limit Arsenal. I'm that serious. That is like the one

470
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 1: team that's actually the City played it absolutely perfectly against Arsenal. Really,

471
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 1: that match and then my match against Fulham were their

472
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: worst two matches of the season. And if you want

473
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 1: to take that match against Porto and have it as

474
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 1: an indictment on Arsenal, that's fine. But the reality is, Anthony,

475
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 1: is that this team has the best underlying numbers. Their

476
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 1: schedule actually lines up pretty well. They have three matches here.

477
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 1: They got Newcastle, then Sheffield United and Brentford. If Liverpool

478
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 1: or City slips up in the next three matches, Arsenal

479
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 1: gonna be sitting at the top of the table when

480
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 1: Arsenal and City meets on March thirty first. And plus,

481
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:46,919
Speaker 1: let's just talk about price plus four seventy is a

482
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 1: fantastic price for the team that has the best underlying

483
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 1: metrics in the Premier League. That's the fact. Okay, Liverpool's

484
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:53,440
Speaker 1: going through an injury crisis. They're kind of like the

485
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 1: side team in this right because they're going through this

486
00:23:56,320 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 1: injury promoss. It's clops farewell tour schedule, so we'll see

487
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 1: what happens. But not having Allison, not having Trent Alexander

488
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:05,919
Speaker 1: Arnold for an extended period of time is a loss

489
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 1: and it you know, Liverpool has two losses on the season.

490
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 1: One was to Totten them with nine men and the

491
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 1: other way they got pumped by Arsenal. We'll see if

492
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 1: they can continue to winning run and guess what. Also

493
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 1: City last season won fourteen straight. Do you know how

494
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:19,479
Speaker 1: hard that is to do? Like they just don't. They

495
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 1: don't just repeat that year after year after year like

496
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 1: they're going to continue to slip up because they are

497
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 1: worse out of possession. So Arsenal to win the Premier

498
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 1: League plus four seventy. I believe now is the right

499
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: time to buy that. Arsenal has a good three match

500
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:34,719
Speaker 1: stretch here and they could have a good position by

501
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 1: the time we face Manchester City. But they are not

502
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,639
Speaker 1: significantly worse than Manchester City. In fact, there are a

503
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 1: lot of data points that say they're better than Manchester City.

504
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 1: I know not a lot of people won't believe that,

505
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 1: but it's the truth, all right.

506
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 2: So non penalty expected goals created this year. According to

507
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,679
Speaker 2: the Macro Football has an only eleven on eleven per nine.

508
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,160
Speaker 1: I know, I know, I've seen this Liverpool.

509
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 2: Two point one seven, City two point zero five, Arsenal

510
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 2: one point seven to eight. And people will tell you

511
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 2: that defense wins championships. It's it's not true.

512
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 1: It's the truth. Actually, it was the best out of

513
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 1: possession team in the world.

514
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 2: Why written off for City? I think people expect City

515
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 2: to do it, and the main reason they expect that

516
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 2: is because City didn't have literally their their best player

517
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 2: for the majority of the season.

518
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 1: Are they gonna have them for the second half.

519
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 2: Yes, I expected to play the majority of the minutes

520
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 2: for City in the stretch run and now Holland is

521
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 2: back for the majority of the stretch run here, And yes,

522
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 2: they may not win every match. We just saw Holland.

523
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 2: Have you know what he did on Saturday where he

524
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,159
Speaker 2: missed everything and they had to settle for a one

525
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 2: to one draw. And look, I agree their defense will

526
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 2: leak a couple of goals and that's why I don't

527
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 2: think this is a done deal. That's why I haven't

528
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 2: bet City yet. But Liverpool has the most point and

529
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,880
Speaker 2: the easiest schedule left in the league just they don't

530
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 2: go to City, they don't go to Spurs, they don't

531
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 2: go to Arsenal. They host City, they host Spurs. They're

532
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 2: done with Newcastle, They're they're they're done with Arsenal all so,

533
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:02,439
Speaker 2: and they're done with Chelsea.

534
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 3: But they march.

535
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 2: At Forest Yeah, okay, okay, we're not doing at.

536
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: Forest now, Villa at Old Traff Road, Theater of Dreams.

537
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I will see for Man United, but yeah, I

538
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:23,880
Speaker 2: just think that the case for Arsenal is that they're

539
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 2: going to grind out all of these results.

540
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 1: But they're not. They're throttling everybody.

541
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 2: They performance, the way they play is much more inclined

542
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 2: to get picked off and settle for draws than it

543
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 2: is City. If they just go City has been doing

544
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 2: and create chance after chance after chance and dominate teams.

545
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 1: City has been doing that. They've been drawing with teams.

546
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 1: They've been drawing with every Big six team because they're

547
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 1: trying to control matches and they're getting the rink.

548
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 2: Most of those games were we're in the first half

549
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 2: of the season. Oh of course they were. They the

550
00:26:54,320 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 2: Tottenham match at Chelsea, uh, Liverpool, like they totally dominated

551
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 2: Liverpool and give it one goal, you know, on a

552
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 2: Trent shot from twenty five yards. I mean, for me,

553
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 2: it comes down to this, like Arsenal still has to

554
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,159
Speaker 2: go to City, and I think that's gonna be the

555
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 2: problem for them if they can't get a result and

556
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 2: they're gonna be an underdog to get a result there.

557
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 2: If they lose that match, it's over. Notice I agree,

558
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 2: So like that's you're you know, you're putting all your

559
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 2: eggs in a basket that they're gonna win at the

560
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 2: Etty Head because a draw is just kind of holding serve.

561
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 2: So for me, I can't get there on Arsenal. Maybe

562
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 2: they do it and they prove me wrong and they

563
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 2: I've said this from day one, liked, I'm not a

564
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 2: buyer an Arsenal to win the league, but if I

565
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 2: had to make a bet right now, it actually would

566
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 2: be City, just because I do think Liverpool's injury situation

567
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,160
Speaker 2: is a little bit concerning. Also, like if you wanted

568
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 2: to play this game, one team's gonna be and the

569
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:48,119
Speaker 2: two of them are in the Champions League. One is not.

570
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 2: I think it's an advantage for Liverpool why.

571
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 1: They're gonna be on Airopole League run.

572
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, how far are they gonna go. They gonna

573
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:56,640
Speaker 2: rotateor they gonna focus in the league. I think there's

574
00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 2: a chance that you see some rotation the push comes

575
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 2: to shove. Also, they're just gonna be playing worst teams,

576
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 2: Like there's a good chance they just beat somebody really

577
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 2: badly in one leg and then they're not in a

578
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 2: contentious tie in the second leg, whereas Arsenal and City

579
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 2: are gonna be in. I mean, Arsenal might not be,

580
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 2: but City and Arsenal are going to be in that.

581
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 1: But you just hit another point that I just said,

582
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 1: what if Arsenal doesn't what if they get very instout

583
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 1: against Porto and suddenly out of the f A Cup,

584
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 1: They're out of the Champions League and.

585
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 2: Really bad season because they would have with no trophies

586
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,160
Speaker 2: for all their success at all, we need we got

587
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 2: to move on. I'm on Arsenal this weekend, B days

588
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 2: on them to win the league. If you want to

589
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 2: make a donation, I know some good charities you can

590
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 2: also DM me and we should share the money with

591
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 2: the people instead of the sports.

592
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 4: Brighton and Everden next Brighton odds On at home minus

593
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 4: won twenty the topees.

594
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 3: God, there's something zero wins Monday warra four.

595
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 4: Losses in their last eighth. Boy, they're down. I hate

596
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 4: to say it, but they're down. Congratulations to to Looton

597
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 4: town End.

598
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 1: No, they're not going down stopless.

599
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 3: You know they're down.

600
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 1: They're down this every year. They're not going down.

601
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, we do it every year because they don't almost

602
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 4: go down by the skin of their teeth every year.

603
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 4: This time they have a ten point points deduction.

604
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 1: Be more.

605
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, a draw here pay out two seventy five. Hey,

606
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 4: guess what I like Everett in here.

607
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 1: I think too.

608
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,719
Speaker 4: I think that you're gonna uh you're buying them at

609
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 4: at a at a kind of a weird spot in

610
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 4: in there to borrow Anthony's term trend line, Like I said,

611
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 4: winless in their last eight for uh five goal scored,

612
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 4: thirteen goals against.

613
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 3: But they are underperforming.

614
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 4: Uh they're expected goals for in that time period by

615
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 4: eight and a half a goal and a half like

616
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 4: a goal point what one point one goals per game? Basically,

617
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 4: they're they're underperform. So at some point this this should click,

618
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 4: they should get a win. And we just know that

619
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 4: Brighton is totally okay with with giving up goals and

620
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 4: they're such a psychotic team. Let me just read to

621
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 4: you the last seven score lines for for Brighton since

622
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 4: December twenty eighth, twenty twenty three. Played Spurs one four

623
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 4: to two nil nil nil nil against west Ham and

624
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 4: Wolves for nil lost to Luton Town, a four to

625
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 4: one win against Crystal Palace, a two to one loss

626
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 4: to Spurs, and then a five nil win against Sheffield

627
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 4: And there's like a like a score Gammi tour. They

628
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 4: just hit every possible score you can have in a

629
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 4: in a soccer match. And I just like the fact

630
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 4: that Everton, like you could see this game going off

631
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 4: the rails because every Brighton game has a chance to

632
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 4: and I actually think that's what Everton is looking for,

633
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 4: Like they need a match to go off the rails.

634
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 4: They need a match to open up to have a

635
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 4: chance right now because they're these cage grinded out matcheses

636
00:30:57,560 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 4: aren't working for them with the way that they're they're

637
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 4: their squad is built right now BJA.

638
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 1: So unfortunately, Michael, I think that's what's gonna happen in

639
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 1: this match because if we go back to the previous

640
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 1: meeting between these two, if you remember Everton scored early,

641
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 1: scored in the seventh minute, and they just sat deep

642
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 1: and they just cut off brighton central progression and they

643
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 1: just said we're not letting you play through. So but

644
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 1: obviously Deservey wants his team to dominates central parts of

645
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 1: the pitch. So it was just this constant battle against

646
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 1: Everton's mid block. And Everton actually did a really good

647
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,479
Speaker 1: job defensively for the full ninety minutes. I mean Brighton

648
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 1: held seventy nine percent of the ball and only were

649
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 1: able to get seven shots and point seven x g

650
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: for the entire match. So I think you could see,

651
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 1: especially Everton being on the road doing something similar to that. Again,

652
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 1: I know people probably listen to this podcast and they

653
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: like probably like deeply sigh whenever we talk about bright

654
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 1: or excuse me about Brentford or Everton, because it's like,

655
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 1: all right, here we go, they're going to skip through it.

656
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 1: One of these two losers again. But Everton, you know,

657
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 1: it's their last win on December sixteenth, minus an actual

658
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 1: goal differential minus one point one expectable differential, so there

659
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 1: is some positive aggression coming for them, and Brighton is

660
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,959
Speaker 1: second to last in the Premier League, an XG allowed

661
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 1: per set piece, so gear up for those Everton corners

662
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: because they're gonna be electric. So but yeah, I like

663
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 1: Everton plus a half. It even money projected this match

664
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 1: pretty close to actually a pick them, Like if you

665
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 1: look at expected points, Everton's actually ahead of if you

666
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 1: don't count obviously a ten point deduction. Actually everything's actually

667
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 1: ahead of Brighton, which kind of just goes show how

668
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 1: bad their under performance has been. But Everton is due

669
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:36,959
Speaker 1: to win a match at some point here, so this

670
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 1: could definitely be it. And it's a decent matchup for there.

671
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 3: Is that all? You got to stay here, Anthony.

672
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna pass. You know, usually means Everton wins.

673
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 2: I'm not on them. They tend to win. So I'm

674
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 2: gonna try to will will you guys across the line

675
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 2: here and stay away. Now if Everton we're a drift

676
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 2: where I can get like plus one, ten, one fifteen,

677
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 2: now we're talking, maybe I'll take some plus a half,

678
00:32:58,160 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 2: but right now I'll pass.

679
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 4: Uh onto Palace and Burnley next Crystal Palace and Evertten

680
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 4: just drew one one over the weekend. Palace is now

681
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 4: minus one o six with their new manager. We had

682
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 4: to say farewell to Roy Hodgson who got sacked in

683
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 4: the most Roy Hodgson way imaginable. So what is it

684
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 4: he'll be back at Pallace. I'll say by like.

685
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 1: Halloween sack while he was in the hospital.

686
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 3: I know. It's just that's is there is there more?

687
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 3: There is there more Roy Hodgson thing to happen?

688
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 4: Uh Oliver Glaschner comes in minus one oh six favorite

689
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 4: in his first match at Selhurst Park, Burnley plus two eighty.

690
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 3: The draw here is plus two fifty.

691
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 4: Burnley's coming off of a five deal defeat to Arsenal.

692
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 3: Than But they've just like they've been bad.

693
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 4: I know they've been bad, but their last batch of

694
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 4: matches has been uh pretty rough schedule wise City Liverpool

695
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 4: Arsenal uh in three of the last four and the

696
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,719
Speaker 4: only other match was a draw. Gets full them too

697
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 4: too at home, so they are they do have a

698
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 4: couple of draws and there their last two home matches

699
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 4: that didn't come against Arsenal. Maybe you can say that

700
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 4: things are looking like a shred better for them, And

701
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:16,760
Speaker 4: I think that I would tend to lean towards Burnley

702
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 4: instead of Palace in this spot. But the numbers not

703
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 4: not good enough on either side, so I'll pass on

704
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:26,439
Speaker 4: what looks like it could be a pretty wonky game

705
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:28,439
Speaker 4: with the new manager the way Burnley wants to play,

706
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 4: the way Palace has played under Hotchs and now got

707
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:36,360
Speaker 4: a change to a Leipshig Kai, so not Liipshiga, a

708
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 4: Red Bulls guy. So Anthony, what are your thoughts here

709
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:40,800
Speaker 4: on Palace and Burnley?

710
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 2: My thoughts on that there are like no good attackers

711
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 2: playing in this match, like zero, and that's it's gonna

712
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 2: be really hard to get three goals without a lot

713
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 2: of miscues or weird bounces, and thus I will be

714
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 2: betting the under. I don't want to say anymore. You

715
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 2: guys all know if you listen to the show that

716
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 2: overs are hitting at a crazy rate under two and

717
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 2: a half, you can find minus one thirty. That's my bypoint.

718
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 2: It has taken some money, but there are still one

719
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 2: thirties out there. I think it's too high. This last

720
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,479
Speaker 2: meeting between these two teams was two nil. There were

721
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 2: four shots that registered XG over point one attempt. Two

722
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 2: of them came deep in stoppage time, including the second goal,

723
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 2: so this was like a pretty sweat free one at

724
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 2: Burnley Palace one, and now you have a Palace team

725
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:25,760
Speaker 2: that scored two goals on screamers the last two matches.

726
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 2: That's been it. There's not been much else.

727
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 1: I will say about Glassner is actually kind of interesting

728
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 1: with this Palace squad and how it fits. He's the

729
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 1: guy can coach. I mean, he took Wolfsburg to the

730
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 1: Champions League. He took obviously Frankfurt and took them all

731
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 1: the way to win the Europa League. Even before that,

732
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 1: he took a couple teams in Austria last from the

733
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,839
Speaker 1: second division all the way to the Champions League. Like,

734
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 1: the guy has a system that works and it's not

735
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:57,799
Speaker 1: possession reliant, which is good with the current squad that

736
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 1: Palace has. But like Anthey said, like everybody injured for

737
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 1: Palace right now. So I think Pallas is an interesting

738
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 1: team as we look next year, if they're able to

739
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 1: keep everybody together, which looks like it's not going to happen.

740
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 1: His system, which is a three four two one with

741
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:16,279
Speaker 1: Esa and Elisa playing as two double attacking midfielders with

742
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: Edward up top, is kind of interesting and makes Palace

743
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:22,920
Speaker 1: maybe a potential by team. But again we'll have to

744
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 1: wait to see what happens till next season, and as

745
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 1: for this match, nothing but just keep it eye on

746
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 1: Glasarus system as we go throughout the second half of

747
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 1: the season. Like Palace is an interesting team because they're

748
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 1: probably not getting relegated and they're not getting in the

749
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 1: top ten, so they're an interesting team to kind of

750
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,840
Speaker 1: just monitor and see how things are where the trajectory

751
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 1: is good because they might be a bye team next year.

752
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 4: Okay, on to Man United. You gotta lay minus one

753
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 4: seventy five for them against Fulham. The Cottagers traveling as

754
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:51,879
Speaker 4: a plus four to seventy five underdog. The draw here

755
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 4: is plus three twenty. I told you guys, Anthony went

756
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 4: and we kicked out of the country for saying that

757
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 4: United was a good bet last week. And they're always

758
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 4: a good bet. They're always a good bet, except here

759
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,240
Speaker 4: when you're laying this kind of price.

760
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 1: Uh.

761
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 4: It gets a Fulham side that we've talked about their

762
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 4: their lack of punch going forward. It's almost like a

763
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:14,399
Speaker 4: script flip from from a year ago with this team, right,

764
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 4: like lack of punch going forward, but more teeth defensively.

765
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 4: I mean it's we don't really need to get too

766
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 4: far into this one and you just look at the

767
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 4: price and you know United can lose to anybody at

768
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 4: this kind of price. I don't care if it's at

769
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 4: Old Trafford. I don't care if it's on the Moon.

770
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 4: Like this is a little a little crazy here, BJ.

771
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:35,840
Speaker 1: It is a little crazy, And I gotta be honest,

772
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 1: I don't think I have placed a wager on Fulham

773
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 1: since they came back to the Premier League. I really

774
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 1: would have to go back and check because I want

775
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 1: to know this.

776
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,760
Speaker 2: Last season I bought them a couple of times. Yeah,

777
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:50,840
Speaker 2: one and one I put in the app so I want.

778
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 1: To know this is gonna be the first one. Let's

779
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 1: just go back to the previous meeting, which was a

780
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: dreadful match to say the least. But United in that

781
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 1: match they got bailed out by a lake goal from Bruno.

782
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 1: They didn't register one shot with an extre rating over

783
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 1: point one. Like, they were generally terrible for the entire

784
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 1: match and Fulham kind of outplayed them. That was at

785
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:16,239
Speaker 1: Craven Cottage. So you say, oh, we're coming back to

786
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:19,360
Speaker 1: Old Trafford. You know United's won four straight. Everything's great,

787
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 1: you know, like the top top four challengers now no,

788
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 1: I mean they've lost the x she battle in three

789
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:30,320
Speaker 1: of those four wins. In nine of their wins this season,

790
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,080
Speaker 1: they have lost the x SHE battle Like that's how

791
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 1: fraudulent this team is. And Fulham they're looking a little

792
00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 1: better as of late. Moniez has been an upgrade to

793
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:42,800
Speaker 1: Ral Jimenez three point eight shots per ninety Menez was

794
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 1: getting two point seven. He scored four goals. Looks like

795
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 1: they maybe have a little bit of a threat up

796
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:51,760
Speaker 1: there other than Jimenez, So Fulham could have something going forward.

797
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:56,919
Speaker 1: If you look at Fulham's home road splits, they're they're

798
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 1: bad to say the least. They have a minus fifteen

799
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 1: expected old French Bay from home. But I will say

800
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 1: eight of their twelve away matches this season have come

801
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 1: against teams in the top half of the table, to

802
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 1: be fair to them, so they've just kind of gotten

803
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:16,359
Speaker 1: beaten by good teams. But yeah, there's no way United

804
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:17,840
Speaker 1: should be laying a goal. I'll go back to it

805
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 1: and say it again. United has won two matches by

806
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:23,479
Speaker 1: multiple goals this year in the Premier League. So who

807
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 1: is laying minus one with Manchester United right now? I

808
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 1: guess people who are fans of them or maybe just

809
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 1: tuning in to me, like, hey, they've won four straight

810
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:35,359
Speaker 1: like let's just keep backing them. But they looked bad

811
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:37,359
Speaker 1: against Lowton after going up two goals. I mean Luton

812
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 1: took eleven straight shots in the first half and twenty

813
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 1: two overall for the match, So Fullham plus one for me.

814
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, they give up twenty shots for fun.

815
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was terrible.

816
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:50,840
Speaker 2: And if you had a weakness for this Fulham team,

817
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:53,359
Speaker 2: it would be that they're not efficient at turning final

818
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 2: third possession into shots and goals and box entries. And

819
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 2: that is the biggest problem with United right now is

820
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 2: that once you run at them, they have no transition defense.

821
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 2: Casimiro should have been sent off in the first half

822
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:09,879
Speaker 2: aganst looton but then had to be taken off because

823
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 2: he was so poor in that match. They have no stoppers.

824
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 2: Meynu has been really impressive and I think him Hoyland, Garnacho,

825
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 2: you can like squint and see like maybe this is

826
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 2: the future. But there's so so many meh players in

827
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 2: this team right now and lack of control and lack

828
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:30,880
Speaker 2: of organization. United is twelfth and build up completion rate allowed.

829
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 2: Fulham is better in build up than United is oppressing.

830
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 2: That's not something I ever thought I would say, and

831
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 2: that's something that shouldn't really be said given the talent,

832
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,360
Speaker 2: but it is true. And that's where I think Fulham

833
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 2: has kind of an advantage in this match. And so yeah, Fulham,

834
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: like are they a great team? No, Pauline is gonna suspended,

835
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 2: that's a big loss for them. In midfield. United's attack

836
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 2: has found some things that have worked. Hoyland shots have

837
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 2: started to go in. That always helps. But they only

838
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 2: have two wins by multiple goals all season. So I'm

839
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 2: going to back Fulham. And you mentioned a BJ and

840
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:04,799
Speaker 2: it kind of cowered in fear as you said it,

841
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 2: But I could see myself buying some Fulham stock in

842
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:10,360
Speaker 2: the second down the stretch run here playing home games

843
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 2: against like you know, these other teams in the top

844
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:17,239
Speaker 2: half that are a little bit overvalued maybe and Maybelham

845
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 2: isn't going to be too easy for some of these teams,

846
00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:21,840
Speaker 2: as an Arsenal showed. Really, I mean, I think you

847
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:23,799
Speaker 2: put in perspective and you kind of squint a little bit.

848
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 2: I know I've been anti Fulham because their striker problem,

849
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:28,520
Speaker 2: but like if they just have a striker who's better.

850
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 2: They're not a bad, bad team, They're just like a

851
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:31,839
Speaker 2: normal bath.

852
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,280
Speaker 4: Another line that I think if you showed me before

853
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 4: the season started, I'd be kind of shocked at it's

854
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 4: board with there. They're six to one at home, But

855
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 4: do you'd expect that price to be a little bit

856
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 4: larger with where their reputation was coming into the season?

857
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 4: City minus two twenty five here the draws plus three fifty.

858
00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 4: City did play in the midweek they won against Brentford,

859
00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 4: so short rest here for PEPs charges a lot of

860
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 4: soccer piling up for them. Also because of Champions League

861
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:09,640
Speaker 4: et cetera. I think, uh, there there probably are ways

862
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 4: you can bet against City here bj mm hmmm. I'm

863
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 4: gonna sit it out. There's some other bets. I'd rather

864
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 4: beach here, But yeah, you like you like the cherries here?

865
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:24,959
Speaker 1: I do like the cherries plus one and a half

866
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 1: at home here at minus one thirty. You know, if

867
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:31,520
Speaker 1: you look back to the previous meeting, it was right

868
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 1: before Bournemouth went on their trajectory line upwards. They got

869
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 1: throttled six to one and it was starting to question,

870
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 1: like the Aroyola done, Like is this thing really gonna work.

871
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:44,439
Speaker 1: You know, if you go back to that match though,

872
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:47,839
Speaker 1: I mean, yes, City scored six goals off of one

873
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:51,280
Speaker 1: point nine expected and Bournemouth was playing a backup keeper

874
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:55,400
Speaker 1: and it showed, Uh, now they're normal starting keeper. Nato

875
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:58,120
Speaker 1: is in there. He's been very, very good this season

876
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 1: and born myth. You know, I know the schedule, the schedule,

877
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's got a little tougher here as

878
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 1: we've gotten deeper into this. But since November fourth, like

879
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 1: within the date that they met, Bournemouth has a plus

880
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 1: point eighty seven expected gole differential per ninety City is

881
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 1: at plus one point zero five. So like there's really

882
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 1: not like this massive, massive gap between these two teams.

883
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:23,879
Speaker 1: You know, Eurils system is obviously very transition based when

884
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 1: they're going to play a team like City, and as

885
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: we've seen, City has been vulnerable in transition. So Citi's

886
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:30,479
Speaker 1: press is not as effective as it was last season.

887
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 1: If you look at their their passive per defensive action

888
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:35,399
Speaker 1: has gone from eleven point two to twelve point three.

889
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 1: They're build up completion percentage allowed has gone from seventy

890
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: eight to eighty percent. I know that doesn't seem like

891
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 1: a lot but it is a trajectory line downwards and

892
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 1: showing that they've been worse defensively. Last season they allowed

893
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:52,279
Speaker 1: point seven to six non penalty extreep ninetyments. Now they're

894
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:56,240
Speaker 1: allowing point eight to eight. So City's defense has continued

895
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:58,320
Speaker 1: to get a little bit worse and worse, and Bournemouth

896
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:02,520
Speaker 1: can pick them off on the counter here. So I

897
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 1: actually do like Bournemouth plus one and a half at

898
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 1: minus one thirty. I think they can hit City on

899
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 1: the break. I mean Brentford, I know that you'll in

900
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 1: the end like City dominated the match whatever the first half,

901
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:14,879
Speaker 1: Brentford had like three or four breaks where if they

902
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,240
Speaker 1: were more clinical they could have gone ahead against City.

903
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:19,799
Speaker 1: And Bournemouth is a much better team in transition right

904
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 1: now than Brentford is, especially Slanke the form he's in.

905
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 1: So I do like Bournemouth here at home plus one

906
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 1: and a half only projected City around minus one fifty here,

907
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 1: So I think you're get a little value on Bournemouth.

908
00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 3: Okay, onto Wolves next.

909
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 4: They are minus two twenty three hosting Sheffield United. The

910
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:43,320
Speaker 4: Blades plus five to fifty coming off of a pretty

911
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 4: ugly loss. The draw here is plus three fifty Wolves

912
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 4: coming off of another impressive win, a little bit of trivia.

913
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 4: Usually Bjay is the one to hand out these questions,

914
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 4: but I'll take it in this this week. If you

915
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 4: go to handicap league tables, there's a group who put

916
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:08,320
Speaker 4: together a Premier League table basically based on a myriad

917
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 4: of bookmakers preseason expectations and projections, and then they compare

918
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 4: it to how many points you are either points per

919
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 4: game you are exceeding those expectations by or or not

920
00:45:22,239 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 4: meeting them by. So if that makes sense, it's it's

921
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 4: a good way to kind of calculate manager performance. Just

922
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:34,919
Speaker 4: who's over performing who's underperforming based on preseason expectations. Can

923
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 4: you name the top three in that handicapped league table Anthony.

924
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 2: Wolves, Lowtontown and west Ham.

925
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 1: JA I'll go Wolves, Tottenham and yeah, I'll go West

926
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:54,880
Speaker 1: Ham as well.

927
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:59,320
Speaker 4: It's Villa number one, Wolves number two, Liverpool three, Tottenham four.

928
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 4: But the point is, like just Wolves have just been

929
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 4: flat out impressive this season. Like Gary O'Neal, I think

930
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:11,319
Speaker 4: should be getting a lot more noise around him than

931
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:13,359
Speaker 4: he actually does, because if you think about it, it's

932
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 4: it's two straight years he's done something really impressive as

933
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 4: a manager, and because they're coming and you can argue

934
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 4: the fact that he took over a new team after

935
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 4: what he did with Bournemouth last year keeping them up

936
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:31,960
Speaker 4: makes it an even more impressive kind of feat that

937
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 4: he's done such a good job with Wolves, a team

938
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 4: he took over what a week before the season started

939
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:40,319
Speaker 4: when low Patagi walked away, So this is.

940
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 1: This is really united that week too.

941
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:43,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a.

942
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 4: Exactly this is a really quietly maybe not quietly anymore

943
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:50,480
Speaker 4: people have taken notice, but just a tip of the

944
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:51,880
Speaker 4: cap to the job he's doing. But now we get

945
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:53,960
Speaker 4: to bet against him because I do think we're we're

946
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 4: starting to see the market get a little bit too

947
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 4: infatuated with with Wolverhampton. I think a lot of that

948
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:00,839
Speaker 4: has to do with the you look at the past

949
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 4: four matches. They had a loss to Manchester United in

950
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 4: the last dying moments of the game that it should

951
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 4: have been at least a draw. You could argue that

952
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:12,799
Speaker 4: it should have been maybe even a win. Then they

953
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 4: beat Chelsea four too, They beat Tottenham to one in between.

954
00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:18,960
Speaker 4: There was a loss to Brentford. But I think that

955
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 4: the pattern with Wolves is still as simple as we've

956
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:24,400
Speaker 4: been saying it, like they can beat anybody.

957
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 3: They can give any.

958
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:30,520
Speaker 4: Team in this league a handful, but they can also, Oh,

959
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 4: they can lose anybody. They've already lost to Sheffield United

960
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 4: this season. So why are we looking at this kind

961
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 4: of number here is my question. And I guess it's

962
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 4: just the positive momentum that's going for Wolves and they

963
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 4: have been just really good. But this is a Sheffield

964
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:47,600
Speaker 4: United team. Boy, I hate to bring it up, but

965
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:51,640
Speaker 4: I'm gonna do it anyways. They are in their last

966
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 4: eight matches so since like right before the Festive fixtures,

967
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 4: they've got one win, two draws, five losses, minus twelve

968
00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 4: gold differential, twenty two conceded, ten scored. They're underperforming by

969
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 4: two in terms of expected goals against goals scored, and

970
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 4: they're underperforming by about seven and goals against. So if

971
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:15,080
Speaker 4: this team could find a way to just stop some

972
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:18,359
Speaker 4: scoring chances, they should have a platform here. But maybe

973
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 4: that's easier said than done. I'll back the Blades here

974
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 4: at a big price plus five fifty b jit.

975
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 2: They're on pace to be the worst defense in the

976
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:25,920
Speaker 2: history of the prem.

977
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:27,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, I saw stop it.

978
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 3: It's not gonna happen.

979
00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:32,000
Speaker 1: We're gonna stopt at our lovely friends at bet three

980
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 1: six five. I think they're four to one to concede

981
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:37,319
Speaker 1: over one hundred goals, which has never been done in

982
00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:39,399
Speaker 1: a thirty eight match season. I believe in the Premier

983
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 1: League it's bad, Like their defense is bad, their keepers bad.

984
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 1: They can't stop anybody playing through the middle. Like Mason

985
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:50,720
Speaker 1: Holgate with one of the worst tackles I've ever seen

986
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 1: to get that red card. I mean that was alarmingly bad,

987
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 1: and then you know, basically being like what how is that?

988
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 1: Even a yellow card? Was very funny to watch var

989
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 1: to like five seconds to look at that and overturn it.

990
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:05,319
Speaker 1: But I agree with you Michael in a sense that

991
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:09,720
Speaker 1: we've just saw what happens with Wolves when somebody says, here, Wolves,

992
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:11,479
Speaker 1: you can have the ball, try to break us down.

993
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:15,399
Speaker 1: It just happened against Brentford. I mean Wolves held over

994
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:19,839
Speaker 1: seventy percent of the ball and Brentford outplayed them pretty

995
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:22,880
Speaker 1: much for the entire match. Ken Sheffield United to do

996
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:26,439
Speaker 1: something like that. They've shown it a couple times. They've

997
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 1: been dangerous on the break against teams like Lowtontown. They've

998
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:33,279
Speaker 1: obviously beaten Wolves, so there's a chance they could do it.

999
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:36,759
Speaker 1: But I am passing on this. It's kind of weird

1000
00:49:36,760 --> 00:49:38,560
Speaker 1: to see Wolves as like laying almost a goal and

1001
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 1: a half though against any crazy like. I don't really

1002
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:43,800
Speaker 1: want to take that, so I'm passing.

1003
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:46,520
Speaker 2: As am I. I have no interest in this match,

1004
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:48,359
Speaker 2: to be honest, I'll end up betting something because it's

1005
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:51,360
Speaker 2: the only Sunday match before the final. There's got to

1006
00:49:51,400 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 2: be something in Syria that's better than that. Oh, come on,

1007
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 2: I have to look. Let's see what it wa Wolves

1008
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 2: and Sheffield on some day morning in the in the

1009
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 2: in the European leagues, we've got we have Real Bettis

1010
00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:09,800
Speaker 2: against bill Bao at ten fifteen, and we've got Frankfurt

1011
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 2: Wolfsburg at nine thirty. And we've got Napoli the corpse

1012
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:14,279
Speaker 2: of Napoli on the road. So maybe I will be

1013
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 2: watching Wolves. But yeah, it's not great.

1014
00:50:18,520 --> 00:50:20,280
Speaker 1: Mato anytime assist.

1015
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:22,240
Speaker 2: Oh it's an eight thirty kickoff.

1016
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 1: Maybe I'll just sold it. We'll just do Nato anytime assist.

1017
00:50:25,640 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 2: Look, Celta Vigo is playing at eight.

1018
00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 3: Just trust me. Trust me.

1019
00:50:29,719 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 4: When it comes to Sheffield United, they've got three wins

1020
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,480
Speaker 4: this year. I've suggested bets on them in two of them.

1021
00:50:34,840 --> 00:50:36,400
Speaker 1: Am aeron Archer anytime goalscorer.

1022
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:38,400
Speaker 4: Maybe we had them in the underdog parlay and two

1023
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 4: of those three wins I show. Maybe we'll maybe we'll

1024
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 4: keep that in our pocket for later in the show. Well,

1025
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 4: west Ham and Brentford to close out the Premier League

1026
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:51,120
Speaker 4: portion of the program. Spurs and Newtontown are not featuring

1027
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:56,080
Speaker 4: this weekend because of the EFL Cup postponements. West Ham

1028
00:50:56,080 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 4: plus one forty, Bees plus one seventy the draw is

1029
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:04,800
Speaker 4: plus two sixty. Just you know, you can just suggest

1030
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:07,719
Speaker 4: that this is a recording because a team that we

1031
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:10,799
Speaker 4: want to bet on basically every week against a team

1032
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:14,000
Speaker 4: that we want to bet against, and the bottom is

1033
00:51:14,040 --> 00:51:16,840
Speaker 4: starting to fall out for west Ham. They haven't scored

1034
00:51:18,160 --> 00:51:20,399
Speaker 4: in quite some time. They've got one goal in four

1035
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:24,760
Speaker 4: matches in February, they've got beat three nail by United,

1036
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:28,319
Speaker 4: six nail to Arsenal and then two nail to New

1037
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:32,480
Speaker 4: No's Forrest. And I don't think the pain is going

1038
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:35,080
Speaker 4: to stop here as Brentford are going to be desperate

1039
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:37,759
Speaker 4: for a win and I just think that flat out

1040
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 4: there the better team maybe deserve to be favorites even

1041
00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:41,040
Speaker 4: on the road.

1042
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:43,480
Speaker 2: Here Anthony Market thinks so too, right, and that's the

1043
00:51:43,520 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 2: most interesting thing here, Like you're not getting any more

1044
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:48,440
Speaker 2: discounts to fade west Ham or cheap prices because the

1045
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:50,399
Speaker 2: market degrees. And I think we've all said this all year,

1046
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:54,399
Speaker 2: Brentford's better than west Ham. The defense did play better

1047
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:57,960
Speaker 2: against City, No Nathan Collins. They kind of switched up

1048
00:51:57,960 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 2: some stuff they got on Yeka back in the midfield,

1049
00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:01,319
Speaker 2: which I think a big upgrade for them in terms

1050
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:04,520
Speaker 2: of just tackling a ball winning. But yeah, you mentioned it, Michael,

1051
00:52:04,560 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 2: Like last eight matches for west Ham, they've scored four goals,

1052
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:10,719
Speaker 2: two of them were penalties. They were blanked in five

1053
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 2: of those eight matches, and that includes two FA Cup

1054
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:17,960
Speaker 2: matches against Bristol City. So their attack has fallen off

1055
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:21,239
Speaker 2: a cliff. I can't say it's shocking, given they were

1056
00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:24,880
Speaker 2: riding this tightrope of being so incredibly efficient at turning

1057
00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 2: every chance and the chances and goals every time they

1058
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:30,879
Speaker 2: had the ball, and now like their defense is still

1059
00:52:30,880 --> 00:52:32,880
Speaker 2: bottom five and now their attack has just kind of

1060
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:35,759
Speaker 2: looked more meh, pedestrian. And you've seen the results of

1061
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 2: that They're not as consistent as Brentford is creating chances either,

1062
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:42,080
Speaker 2: so hard to create an advantage for west Ham here,

1063
00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:45,000
Speaker 2: you're pretty much at the floor. I think of what

1064
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 2: this team can really be at this price, though, so

1065
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:50,959
Speaker 2: I leaned toward Brentford and I'll probably end up betting

1066
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:54,839
Speaker 2: them as well. But I think west Ham has been

1067
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 2: properly downgraded now into a bottom five team, which is

1068
00:52:57,560 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 2: what the market is saying. They are crazy.

1069
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:05,120
Speaker 1: Yep, Brentford for me, Toronto bet plus one five every week, baby,

1070
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:07,160
Speaker 1: every week. We can move on.

1071
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:15,839
Speaker 4: Okay, let's do it onto the Bundesliga. Uh first in

1072
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 4: the in our little jount through Europe.

1073
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:20,479
Speaker 2: I got Friday, so I'm gonna go first.

1074
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:21,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, why don't you go first?

1075
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 4: Because I'm excited to hear what BJ's got to say

1076
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 4: about his bet.

1077
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:28,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, Bata is an interesting one here. That's a fun match,

1078
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:30,680
Speaker 2: but I have a much less fun match. Leverkusen host Mines.

1079
00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:32,839
Speaker 2: I get there our buyern ticket. I officially tore it up,

1080
00:53:33,560 --> 00:53:37,280
Speaker 2: printed it out and lit it on fire. The bet slip.

1081
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:42,480
Speaker 2: But they host Mines this weekend. If you look at

1082
00:53:42,480 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 2: the underline numbers, these are two of the four best

1083
00:53:44,160 --> 00:53:46,799
Speaker 2: defenses in Germany. And it's very interesting because Leverkusen is

1084
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 2: at their best in this league right now because teams

1085
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:51,879
Speaker 2: press them because it's Germany and everybody's wired to play

1086
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:54,640
Speaker 2: that way. And then eventually they are so good at

1087
00:53:54,680 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 2: playing through pressure and kind of finding the outlets to

1088
00:53:56,680 --> 00:53:59,439
Speaker 2: the wing backs from pong especially that the wing backs

1089
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 2: create with and then they just destroy you with their

1090
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:04,960
Speaker 2: pace and create chances. But what happens when teams don't

1091
00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:07,719
Speaker 2: play very Bundesligi and like mine's is gonna do, I

1092
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 2: think this weekend and sit a little deeper and absorb

1093
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 2: pressure and not let the wing backs have as much

1094
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:14,400
Speaker 2: space to roam, and I think that's the key here.

1095
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 2: And as a result of that, like no bony face. Still,

1096
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:21,080
Speaker 2: you're seeing Leverkusen show some cracks an attack even though

1097
00:54:21,080 --> 00:54:23,719
Speaker 2: their defense is playing really well right now. So I

1098
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:27,240
Speaker 2: think what you'll see here low scoring match. Leverkusen controls

1099
00:54:27,320 --> 00:54:29,720
Speaker 2: a lot of possession, doesn't get a ton of chances.

1100
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:33,400
Speaker 2: Mines has underperformed badly this year in attack, but they

1101
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:36,920
Speaker 2: also don't have a very good attack, so I think

1102
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:38,719
Speaker 2: this is an under three at minus one oh five.

1103
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 2: I have this closer to two and a half actually,

1104
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:43,960
Speaker 2: so I like the under.

1105
00:54:45,719 --> 00:54:49,360
Speaker 1: I like Byron minus one fifty at home against Leipzig.

1106
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:52,880
Speaker 1: It's bad right now for Byron. They're keeping Tutchel to

1107
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:54,239
Speaker 1: the end of the season, which is a very like

1108
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:57,200
Speaker 1: weird thing basically being like he sacked. But we don't

1109
00:54:57,200 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 1: really want to bring anybody in mid season because we

1110
00:54:59,120 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 1: might get Shobby a lot and so we don't really

1111
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:05,200
Speaker 1: want to pay like an interim manager. So we'll just

1112
00:55:05,280 --> 00:55:07,360
Speaker 1: keep touchill till the end of the season. And sounds

1113
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 1: like things are going bad with the team. They're probably

1114
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 1: out of the Bundesliga title race, they could be out

1115
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:13,640
Speaker 1: of the Champions League and we could have a walking

1116
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:16,440
Speaker 1: corpse towards the end of season and all that sounds horrible.

1117
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, there's gonna be some good prices to face.

1118
00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:20,880
Speaker 1: They're only minus one fifty against Leipsick at home this

1119
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:25,960
Speaker 1: season this Saturday. They closed at minus one forty on

1120
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:28,759
Speaker 1: the road against Leipzig in the previous meeting and edited

1121
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 1: too too. Leipzi scored a couple you know, scored off

1122
00:55:31,120 --> 00:55:34,040
Speaker 1: a set piece and scored you know, just outside the

1123
00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:36,120
Speaker 1: box to open it up, and then Byron do what

1124
00:55:36,160 --> 00:55:39,440
Speaker 1: they normally do and create north of two expected goals.

1125
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 1: I mean, Byron's underlying numbers are way too good to

1126
00:55:45,120 --> 00:55:48,040
Speaker 1: have them this low, right, and you're getting a discount

1127
00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 1: because of all the turmoil, because of the bad form,

1128
00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:54,680
Speaker 1: even though they you know, got variantced against Bochum. I mean, yes,

1129
00:55:54,719 --> 00:55:58,040
Speaker 1: they look bad against Leipzig. Yes they got denominated by Leverkusen,

1130
00:55:58,120 --> 00:56:01,480
Speaker 1: but let's not sit here. At Leipzig has been like

1131
00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:04,440
Speaker 1: the Leipzig of the past few years, like they're you know,

1132
00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:07,479
Speaker 1: very clearly the fourth best team in Germany right now.

1133
00:56:07,640 --> 00:56:13,240
Speaker 1: So I like Byron minus one fifty at home. It's

1134
00:56:13,719 --> 00:56:16,160
Speaker 1: not fun and it's probably one of the dumber bets

1135
00:56:16,200 --> 00:56:17,880
Speaker 1: that I'm gonna make when I watch Leipsig go up

1136
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:21,640
Speaker 1: to nothing. But the price is gonna be The prices

1137
00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:23,879
Speaker 1: on Byron are going to be too enticing over this

1138
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:28,120
Speaker 1: second half stretch to potentially not play them, which is

1139
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:29,680
Speaker 1: not a position I thought I'd ever be in. I

1140
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:31,480
Speaker 1: thought I'd always be in a position to have to

1141
00:56:31,480 --> 00:56:34,319
Speaker 1: fade this truck, but now I'm betting on it. So

1142
00:56:34,360 --> 00:56:37,440
Speaker 1: it's just funny how this, uh, this betting journey works.

1143
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:41,200
Speaker 2: Sometimes Byron is a fascinating handicap situation right now, because

1144
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:46,160
Speaker 2: it's true that like they are generally a team we

1145
00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:48,239
Speaker 2: play against because they tend to be overvalued, and now

1146
00:56:48,280 --> 00:56:50,440
Speaker 2: the vibes are so bad and the market has shunned

1147
00:56:50,440 --> 00:56:53,080
Speaker 2: this team in the last month, and now we're coming

1148
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 2: back and saying, well, actually you should probably buy Byron.

1149
00:56:56,480 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 2: Then we look like idiots because we usually lay numbers

1150
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:00,239
Speaker 2: and then they get beat. So you know, it's a

1151
00:57:00,239 --> 00:57:03,120
Speaker 2: really hard talent and trying to figure out where you

1152
00:57:03,160 --> 00:57:05,359
Speaker 2: are on this team. And look, they're laying a goal

1153
00:57:05,360 --> 00:57:08,600
Speaker 2: and a half the Lotsio in the second leg. I

1154
00:57:08,680 --> 00:57:10,840
Speaker 2: need to rewatch the first leg before I have a

1155
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:15,439
Speaker 2: thought on that, but I am intrigued about laying it,

1156
00:57:15,520 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 2: so I'm not gonna lay here though I think I

1157
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 2: liked Leipsic at plus one point twenty five. That's the

1158
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:23,040
Speaker 2: other thing about this. It was minus two fifteen when

1159
00:57:23,040 --> 00:57:27,440
Speaker 2: I looked at it for the Boca match. Now it's

1160
00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:29,960
Speaker 2: minus one fifty. Do you really have to adjust that

1161
00:57:30,000 --> 00:57:32,080
Speaker 2: match off one that much off one match?

1162
00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:33,919
Speaker 1: That's healthy, is my point.

1163
00:57:34,080 --> 00:57:36,760
Speaker 2: Macano's suspension is that valuable? I don't think so.

1164
00:57:37,120 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 4: No, Syria up next here, BJ What do you got.

1165
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:46,760
Speaker 1: Friday afternoon snoozer is what I have. Michael Bologna Verona

1166
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:50,280
Speaker 1: both teams to score No. Minus one forty. I've obviously

1167
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:53,040
Speaker 1: talked about a Bologna quite a bit. They've been the

1168
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:55,960
Speaker 1: darling in Syria. Am holding a top four ticket at

1169
00:57:56,000 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 1: eight to one. That's been electric so far. Diago Mata

1170
00:57:59,800 --> 00:58:02,080
Speaker 1: is an incredible job with this team in terms of

1171
00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 1: not only being able to build out of the back

1172
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 1: play short passes through the middle, but they are an

1173
00:58:06,760 --> 00:58:09,000
Speaker 1: elite team out of possession. They're only allowing point eight

1174
00:58:09,080 --> 00:58:12,360
Speaker 1: non penalty x cheper ninety minutes in Syria EI. They're

1175
00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:16,000
Speaker 1: taking on a Verona team that has actually improved in

1176
00:58:16,040 --> 00:58:18,480
Speaker 1: their low block over the last ten matches, only allowed

1177
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:21,320
Speaker 1: ten point three expected goals, only allowing one point two

1178
00:58:21,360 --> 00:58:26,200
Speaker 1: non penalty x cheaper ninety minutes for the season, but

1179
00:58:26,520 --> 00:58:30,120
Speaker 1: they sold their best attacking threat during the January transfer window.

1180
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:33,680
Speaker 1: They're only averaging point seventy to three non penalty for

1181
00:58:34,120 --> 00:58:37,160
Speaker 1: the season. In the last match between these two, it

1182
00:58:37,280 --> 00:58:40,720
Speaker 1: ended zero zero with just one expected goal on twenty shots,

1183
00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:43,280
Speaker 1: and there was one shot with an actually rating over

1184
00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:47,600
Speaker 1: point one. So I am expecting another snoozer here. I

1185
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:51,200
Speaker 1: really like Bologna in the spot, but with Verona playing

1186
00:58:51,200 --> 00:58:53,800
Speaker 1: a low block, I get worried sometimes about you know,

1187
00:58:54,960 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 1: Bolognia's ability to actually break down a lottle block, because

1188
00:58:57,480 --> 00:59:00,160
Speaker 1: they're much better when teams try to press them, like

1189
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 1: both team to score No. Minus one forty instead.

1190
00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:04,959
Speaker 2: I would love nothing more than Bologna in the Champions League.

1191
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:06,000
Speaker 1: I would love it too.

1192
00:59:06,120 --> 00:59:08,080
Speaker 2: I think is gonna get a fifth spot too, because I.

1193
00:59:08,360 --> 00:59:10,920
Speaker 1: Think, yeah, that's something we want to do in the

1194
00:59:11,000 --> 00:59:13,520
Speaker 1: Champions League pod next to the race for the fifth

1195
00:59:13,680 --> 00:59:15,520
Speaker 1: the extra race efficients.

1196
00:59:15,880 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, but yeah, I think they're gonna get a fifth spot.

1197
00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:19,800
Speaker 2: So I think Bologna might get fifth here. They got

1198
00:59:19,840 --> 00:59:21,560
Speaker 2: a real shot at it, and maybe even fourth if

1199
00:59:21,560 --> 00:59:24,920
Speaker 2: Atlanta slips up. I think they I think they will

1200
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:26,680
Speaker 2: win this weekend, but I I like over two and

1201
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:31,080
Speaker 2: a half minus one thirty more. Look, Milan's attack is

1202
00:59:31,160 --> 00:59:34,880
Speaker 2: fine and they get the overlaps from Tao and combining

1203
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:37,160
Speaker 2: with le Ao and pool A, Sick has continued to

1204
00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:40,240
Speaker 2: run really, really good on the other side, and they

1205
00:59:40,280 --> 00:59:42,919
Speaker 2: have options right with Loft his cheeks in there now,

1206
00:59:43,360 --> 00:59:45,680
Speaker 2: he's been you know, really good at getting forward in

1207
00:59:45,680 --> 00:59:48,080
Speaker 2: the midfield because under Pioli they don't normally push their

1208
00:59:48,120 --> 00:59:50,600
Speaker 2: midfielders forward, but they're doing it more with with Loft's

1209
00:59:50,680 --> 00:59:52,960
Speaker 2: cheek because he's so good in the box. And then

1210
00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:55,040
Speaker 2: they're getting you know, Drew. But then when Drew gets

1211
00:59:55,040 --> 00:59:57,600
Speaker 2: tired after an hour, they can go to okafor or

1212
00:59:57,720 --> 00:59:59,960
Speaker 2: Jovich like. There are options for this team to go

1213
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 2: at people. And Adelanta's attack continues to trend up too

1214
01:00:03,080 --> 01:00:05,800
Speaker 2: because Dikeetalari has been such improvement this year. So I

1215
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:07,600
Speaker 2: had this closure to three like over two and a

1216
01:00:07,640 --> 01:00:11,000
Speaker 2: half minus one thirty. I think Milan's defense they keeping

1217
01:00:11,080 --> 01:00:14,280
Speaker 2: away penalties and they've had weird results, but they're still

1218
01:00:14,280 --> 01:00:17,600
Speaker 2: conceding when they when they play the more attacking lineups.

1219
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:20,800
Speaker 2: You see the flaws defensively that they have. They struggle

1220
01:00:20,800 --> 01:00:21,760
Speaker 2: to get that balance right.

1221
01:00:21,840 --> 01:00:26,560
Speaker 3: So I deal, okay la Liga time BJ call.

1222
01:00:26,480 --> 01:00:31,240
Speaker 1: You Osasuna jronal Bett plus one thirty on the island

1223
01:00:31,480 --> 01:00:35,680
Speaker 1: against Las Palmas, I get, you know, lost. Pomis was

1224
01:00:35,680 --> 01:00:37,920
Speaker 1: obviously darling at the beginning of the season for US

1225
01:00:38,200 --> 01:00:41,800
Speaker 1: cash some bets it was fun, but my goodness, have

1226
01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:44,480
Speaker 1: they overformed to get to the middle of the table,

1227
01:00:45,560 --> 01:00:49,120
Speaker 1: even even gold differential after getting beat five to nil

1228
01:00:49,200 --> 01:00:54,280
Speaker 1: by Athletico over the weekend minus over minus fifteen expected

1229
01:00:54,320 --> 01:00:57,480
Speaker 1: gold differential. That's second worst in La Liga. But guess what,

1230
01:00:57,720 --> 01:01:00,960
Speaker 1: they're actually a very possession dominance. They're holding on average

1231
01:01:01,000 --> 01:01:05,680
Speaker 1: fifty nine percent possession, but they just do absolutely nothing

1232
01:01:05,760 --> 01:01:09,520
Speaker 1: with it. It's incredibly slow. They're just trying to plass. Basically,

1233
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:11,200
Speaker 1: just passed the ball between the lines as slow as

1234
01:01:11,200 --> 01:01:15,480
Speaker 1: they possibly can. They are dead last in La Liga

1235
01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:18,920
Speaker 1: non penalty expecta goles. That's how bad their offense has been.

1236
01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:21,640
Speaker 1: But their defense actually has been pretty good. But o

1237
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:26,040
Speaker 1: so souna you know, mid table La Liga team. The

1238
01:01:26,120 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 1: last time these two teams played and you know, ended

1239
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:31,600
Speaker 1: one to one. But oh, Sooner was by far the

1240
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:34,280
Speaker 1: better team. So I don't think there's really a world

1241
01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:37,200
Speaker 1: that Los Palmis, with the second worst expected goal differential

1242
01:01:37,240 --> 01:01:40,440
Speaker 1: should be even somewhat of a home favorite here. So

1243
01:01:40,480 --> 01:01:42,400
Speaker 1: I think I was Sooner Dronto bet at plus one thirty.

1244
01:01:43,040 --> 01:01:45,720
Speaker 2: I'm gonna pade Girona again. You're seeing the defensive Yeah, I.

1245
01:01:45,720 --> 01:01:47,680
Speaker 1: Want I'm going I'm going to as well. I just

1246
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:50,280
Speaker 1: don't want to be redundant like every single week.

1247
01:01:50,280 --> 01:01:52,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll be it. I took the first half team

1248
01:01:52,520 --> 01:01:56,280
Speaker 2: total end the Vacano plus one. Impressive showing for Ryo

1249
01:01:56,440 --> 01:01:59,120
Speaker 2: getting a good result at home against Real Madrid. Shut

1250
01:01:59,120 --> 01:02:01,480
Speaker 2: them down. Think they can slow down to Rona. You're

1251
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:04,680
Speaker 2: seeing that they're just a bottom half defense. They have

1252
01:02:04,720 --> 01:02:07,160
Speaker 2: no defensive winners and that in that team ball winners,

1253
01:02:07,160 --> 01:02:09,560
Speaker 2: and thus I want to keep playing against them. So

1254
01:02:10,280 --> 01:02:12,680
Speaker 2: we hit some Real Madrid, we hit some bill Bao.

1255
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:14,920
Speaker 2: Now we're gonna hit Viacano against Runa.

1256
01:02:15,760 --> 01:02:21,840
Speaker 3: Okay, PJ the only one in the league. Ooh as well, yep,

1257
01:02:21,960 --> 01:02:22,520
Speaker 3: I'll be quick.

1258
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:26,000
Speaker 1: Lil minus one ten on the road against Toulouse. Great

1259
01:02:26,000 --> 01:02:29,240
Speaker 1: spot here for LIL, who since the beginning of November

1260
01:02:29,440 --> 01:02:32,160
Speaker 1: is very clearly has the best non penalty expected gole

1261
01:02:32,200 --> 01:02:34,840
Speaker 1: differential in France around plus ten, way better than Nice,

1262
01:02:34,920 --> 01:02:37,640
Speaker 1: way better than PSG. Playing against the to lose team

1263
01:02:37,680 --> 01:02:41,080
Speaker 1: that's coming off a match on Thursday against Benfica to

1264
01:02:41,080 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 1: see if they need they are going to progress in

1265
01:02:43,280 --> 01:02:45,520
Speaker 1: the Europa League to lose one of the worst defensive

1266
01:02:45,520 --> 01:02:47,800
Speaker 1: teams in France. So a really good spot here for

1267
01:02:47,880 --> 01:02:49,360
Speaker 1: LIL minus one ten on the road.

1268
01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:53,200
Speaker 4: Okay, uh, time to get into the underdog parlay. Like

1269
01:02:53,240 --> 01:02:55,760
Speaker 4: I said, this one comes in just shy of two

1270
01:02:55,800 --> 01:03:00,000
Speaker 4: fourteen to one, not two thirteen and a half to one,

1271
01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:04,600
Speaker 4: So pretty big number here, Anthony, and we were close

1272
01:03:05,120 --> 01:03:06,600
Speaker 4: again last week.

1273
01:03:06,680 --> 01:03:09,000
Speaker 2: Well we went oh in three. Yeah, but we had

1274
01:03:09,040 --> 01:03:12,480
Speaker 2: three draws and all right in the second half, so

1275
01:03:12,600 --> 01:03:14,040
Speaker 2: you know, depending on you know, it was dead by

1276
01:03:14,080 --> 01:03:17,480
Speaker 2: Friday afternoon, but you know it wasn't a bad all

1277
01:03:17,480 --> 01:03:19,240
Speaker 2: three covered, but they did not win the money line

1278
01:03:19,240 --> 01:03:22,600
Speaker 2: for us. We're here for winners, not almost winners. So

1279
01:03:22,680 --> 01:03:24,880
Speaker 2: how about an almost winner for you? Forest plus four

1280
01:03:25,000 --> 01:03:28,720
Speaker 2: fifty on the road at Villa talked about this one

1281
01:03:28,800 --> 01:03:31,600
Speaker 2: in the segment, and I mentioned that, you know, I

1282
01:03:31,600 --> 01:03:33,560
Speaker 2: think Villa's just played closer to an average team with

1283
01:03:33,600 --> 01:03:36,520
Speaker 2: a very flawed defense. Forest is trending upward. I think

1284
01:03:36,560 --> 01:03:39,200
Speaker 2: you're catching them here at the markets, starting to catch

1285
01:03:39,200 --> 01:03:41,880
Speaker 2: on with this number, but maybe not quite fully. And

1286
01:03:41,920 --> 01:03:44,280
Speaker 2: so in a Highberian setting like that, I want Forest

1287
01:03:44,320 --> 01:03:47,880
Speaker 2: plus four fifty, uh, and I will take them.

1288
01:03:47,800 --> 01:03:52,200
Speaker 4: To kick this off, okay. Becoming a good luck charm

1289
01:03:52,320 --> 01:03:56,080
Speaker 4: for the underdog segment is Sheffield United. We've we've hit

1290
01:03:56,120 --> 01:03:57,240
Speaker 4: it twice.

1291
01:03:58,680 --> 01:04:00,960
Speaker 3: And checking I think I've had a loss in there too.

1292
01:04:01,080 --> 01:04:02,960
Speaker 2: No, I just checked that we have no losses on

1293
01:04:02,960 --> 01:04:03,600
Speaker 2: Sheffild this year.

1294
01:04:03,600 --> 01:04:06,080
Speaker 4: We have two wins there we go, so let's make

1295
01:04:06,120 --> 01:04:08,400
Speaker 4: it three for three, or we can just regress here.

1296
01:04:09,320 --> 01:04:12,919
Speaker 4: Sheffield the United is plus five fifty on the road

1297
01:04:12,920 --> 01:04:14,760
Speaker 4: at the Molin. You to take on Wolverhampton, a team

1298
01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:17,840
Speaker 4: that they've already beaten this season. You have to squint

1299
01:04:17,840 --> 01:04:21,640
Speaker 4: to see it. But the Sheffield United improvements under Chris

1300
01:04:21,640 --> 01:04:25,040
Speaker 4: Wilder are there. They've been okay, I mean they're coming

1301
01:04:25,080 --> 01:04:28,560
Speaker 4: off of the test two loss pest. Two losses were

1302
01:04:28,560 --> 01:04:31,240
Speaker 4: by a combined score ten nail. But in between that

1303
01:04:32,120 --> 01:04:34,640
Speaker 4: those two losses were a three to one win over

1304
01:04:34,720 --> 01:04:38,320
Speaker 4: Lootontown and which they were part of this segment. So

1305
01:04:38,360 --> 01:04:40,840
Speaker 4: we'll go back to them here against a Wolverhampton team

1306
01:04:40,840 --> 01:04:46,080
Speaker 4: which has been really, really impressive in terms of exceeding expectations.

1307
01:04:46,080 --> 01:04:49,000
Speaker 4: But it looks like that the high water mark of

1308
01:04:49,080 --> 01:04:53,040
Speaker 4: the market on Wolverhampton Gary o'neils Wolves. So we'll try

1309
01:04:53,080 --> 01:04:56,200
Speaker 4: to beat them with the worst team in the Premier

1310
01:04:56,280 --> 01:04:59,040
Speaker 4: League and hey, who doesn't ever want to bet on

1311
01:04:59,520 --> 01:05:02,800
Speaker 4: perhaps worst defensive team we've ever seen in Premier League?

1312
01:05:02,840 --> 01:05:06,160
Speaker 3: History. So that's a good way to spend your weekend,

1313
01:05:06,200 --> 01:05:07,000
Speaker 3: right BJA.

1314
01:05:07,360 --> 01:05:10,640
Speaker 1: Exactly, And how about taking one of the worst away

1315
01:05:10,720 --> 01:05:13,400
Speaker 1: teams in the Premier League in Fulham on the road

1316
01:05:13,680 --> 01:05:17,840
Speaker 1: at the Theater of Dreams. Manchester United has won four

1317
01:05:17,920 --> 01:05:21,560
Speaker 1: straight matches, but again, this team is a little bit

1318
01:05:21,600 --> 01:05:24,760
Speaker 1: of a Ponzi scheme. They have nine wins this season

1319
01:05:24,760 --> 01:05:26,840
Speaker 1: where they have lost the expected goals battle. Three of

1320
01:05:26,880 --> 01:05:29,440
Speaker 1: them came in their last four matches. I mean against

1321
01:05:29,480 --> 01:05:31,640
Speaker 1: Loutontown they conceded twenty two shots at one point in

1322
01:05:31,640 --> 01:05:33,640
Speaker 1: the first half after they went up to nothing. They

1323
01:05:33,640 --> 01:05:36,120
Speaker 1: concealed eleven straight shots to Lutontown, like they are just

1324
01:05:36,160 --> 01:05:40,400
Speaker 1: giving up transition chances for fun. And Fulham has looked

1325
01:05:40,800 --> 01:05:43,640
Speaker 1: has looked pretty improved in terms of their attack. Munia

1326
01:05:43,760 --> 01:05:46,680
Speaker 1: is coming in for Ralhamanez is getting better shot production numbers.

1327
01:05:46,680 --> 01:05:49,320
Speaker 1: He's actually scored four goals, so Fulham might actually have

1328
01:05:49,320 --> 01:05:52,360
Speaker 1: a threat going forward here. And they're definitely live at

1329
01:05:52,400 --> 01:05:54,800
Speaker 1: five to one. I mean, they outplayed United in the

1330
01:05:54,880 --> 01:05:56,880
Speaker 1: reverse fixture at craven Collge. You know, I just got

1331
01:05:56,880 --> 01:05:59,320
Speaker 1: bailed out by a late Bruno golf so I like

1332
01:05:59,400 --> 01:06:01,880
Speaker 1: Fulham five to one against Manchester United.

1333
01:06:02,320 --> 01:06:07,240
Speaker 4: Okay, that's Fulham Sheffield United and adding them fourth two

1334
01:06:07,360 --> 01:06:11,520
Speaker 4: hundred and thirteen two hundred and fourteen to one, depending

1335
01:06:11,560 --> 01:06:14,680
Speaker 4: on where you get them. On to our favorite bets

1336
01:06:14,680 --> 01:06:18,760
Speaker 4: for the upcoming eight match Premier League slate BJ What

1337
01:06:18,800 --> 01:06:19,280
Speaker 4: do you have.

1338
01:06:19,600 --> 01:06:23,280
Speaker 1: Brentford John o'bett plus one oh five on Monday against

1339
01:06:23,360 --> 01:06:26,280
Speaker 1: west Ham. This west Ham team has overperformed quite a

1340
01:06:26,280 --> 01:06:27,600
Speaker 1: bit to be sitting in the top half of the

1341
01:06:27,600 --> 01:06:30,479
Speaker 1: table minus eight actual goal differential minus twelve point six

1342
01:06:30,520 --> 01:06:33,080
Speaker 1: expected goal differential, and it really comes down to the

1343
01:06:33,120 --> 01:06:36,240
Speaker 1: fact that their offense was really reliant on scoring these

1344
01:06:36,280 --> 01:06:38,720
Speaker 1: few transition opportunities that they had in the beginning of

1345
01:06:38,760 --> 01:06:40,960
Speaker 1: the season and now those have dried up. They haven't

1346
01:06:40,960 --> 01:06:43,240
Speaker 1: scored for the last three matches, and the defensive numbers

1347
01:06:43,240 --> 01:06:46,360
Speaker 1: have always been bad. More specifically to this match though,

1348
01:06:46,720 --> 01:06:48,800
Speaker 1: they've allowed the most crosses of anybody in the Premier

1349
01:06:48,880 --> 01:06:51,920
Speaker 1: League into their penalty area, and that is where Brentford thrives.

1350
01:06:51,960 --> 01:06:54,040
Speaker 1: They create most of their chances via cross as west

1351
01:06:54,040 --> 01:06:56,640
Speaker 1: Ham also been a pretty average defense in terms of

1352
01:06:56,680 --> 01:06:59,280
Speaker 1: defending set pieces, while Brentford is always one of the

1353
01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:02,440
Speaker 1: best teams in terms of UH set piece offense in

1354
01:07:02,440 --> 01:07:05,720
Speaker 1: the Premier League. So great spot here for Brentford. Way

1355
01:07:05,720 --> 01:07:08,960
Speaker 1: better underlying numbers than west Ham, so probably should be

1356
01:07:09,000 --> 01:07:11,360
Speaker 1: a road favorite. So I like them drawn a bett

1357
01:07:11,400 --> 01:07:12,280
Speaker 1: at plus one oh five.

1358
01:07:13,040 --> 01:07:14,560
Speaker 3: I didn't want to do it, but I'm just going to.

1359
01:07:14,920 --> 01:07:15,040
Speaker 1: Uh.

1360
01:07:15,440 --> 01:07:20,000
Speaker 4: I co signed BJ's Brentford pick. But to diversify things

1361
01:07:20,040 --> 01:07:21,320
Speaker 4: here at the end of the show, I'm gonna go

1362
01:07:21,360 --> 01:07:25,680
Speaker 4: with Everton. They're three to one on the money against Brighton,

1363
01:07:26,240 --> 01:07:29,760
Speaker 4: UH Saturday. This is more of a play against Brighton

1364
01:07:30,400 --> 01:07:33,040
Speaker 4: than one on Everton. I'm sick of betting Everton. I

1365
01:07:33,120 --> 01:07:35,680
Speaker 4: already have to bet them with my heart. But when

1366
01:07:35,680 --> 01:07:37,960
Speaker 4: you look at the range of outcomes for any Brentford

1367
01:07:38,200 --> 01:07:40,440
Speaker 4: Brighton match, they are things can just go in a

1368
01:07:40,440 --> 01:07:43,760
Speaker 4: million different directions. Case in point, uh their last five

1369
01:07:43,960 --> 01:07:47,520
Speaker 4: six matches have they They've had two nil nails, a

1370
01:07:47,600 --> 01:07:49,840
Speaker 4: four to oher loss, a five to oh win, a

1371
01:07:49,880 --> 01:07:52,880
Speaker 4: four to one win and a two to one defeat Spurs.

1372
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:56,320
Speaker 4: I mean the four to four nil loss came to

1373
01:07:56,360 --> 01:08:00,720
Speaker 4: Luton Town. This any given Sunday. Is this Brighton team

1374
01:08:00,720 --> 01:08:03,080
Speaker 4: any given Sunday, they can beat anybody, They can lose anybody.

1375
01:08:03,280 --> 01:08:07,280
Speaker 4: Hopefully this week they do the ladder to Everton. I'll

1376
01:08:07,320 --> 01:08:11,520
Speaker 4: take the three hundred and plus three hundred and the topees, Anthony,

1377
01:08:11,560 --> 01:08:12,520
Speaker 4: you can close out the show.

1378
01:08:12,920 --> 01:08:16,720
Speaker 2: Arsenal minus one and a half plus one ten at

1379
01:08:16,720 --> 01:08:19,200
Speaker 2: home against Newcastle, who has been the worst defense in

1380
01:08:19,200 --> 01:08:21,400
Speaker 2: the Premier League for the last two months. They are

1381
01:08:21,439 --> 01:08:24,000
Speaker 2: shorthanded in attack. Esac might be back, but he's going

1382
01:08:24,040 --> 01:08:26,000
Speaker 2: to be limited, I think based on just how much

1383
01:08:26,040 --> 01:08:28,800
Speaker 2: he missed. They're missing ball winners in the midfield to

1384
01:08:28,880 --> 01:08:31,439
Speaker 2: stop Arsenal in transition to cover for their fullbacks. You

1385
01:08:31,479 --> 01:08:35,519
Speaker 2: don't guard and transition well, defend space particularly well, and

1386
01:08:35,520 --> 01:08:37,760
Speaker 2: they're giving up just two or three big chances every match.

1387
01:08:37,840 --> 01:08:39,679
Speaker 2: Right now, They're going on the road against the best

1388
01:08:39,680 --> 01:08:41,559
Speaker 2: defense in the league. I do not think this is

1389
01:08:41,560 --> 01:08:44,120
Speaker 2: a match where Arsenal will have trouble creating, and thus

1390
01:08:44,160 --> 01:08:46,960
Speaker 2: I think they will roll at home and bounce back

1391
01:08:46,960 --> 01:08:49,960
Speaker 2: from a loss to Porto in the Champions League. Even

1392
01:08:49,960 --> 01:08:51,400
Speaker 2: though they will not win the league, they will win

1393
01:08:51,439 --> 01:08:52,879
Speaker 2: this weekend by multiple goals.

1394
01:08:53,880 --> 01:08:56,519
Speaker 3: All right, that does it for this week's wonder goal.

1395
01:08:56,560 --> 01:09:00,280
Speaker 4: We'll be back next week to Premiere to preview more

1396
01:09:00,320 --> 01:09:03,799
Speaker 4: Premier League action. No Champions League preview show for Monday

1397
01:09:03,800 --> 01:09:07,320
Speaker 4: morning because it's a break So for BJ and Anthony,

1398
01:09:07,320 --> 01:09:14,519
Speaker 4: I'm Michael. Best of luck with all your bets this weekend.

1399
01:09:16,040 --> 01:09:20,559
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1400
01:09:20,600 --> 01:09:23,360
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1401
01:09:23,400 --> 01:09:26,519
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler