WEBVTT - Life For Trans People Under Trump 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:04.920 All media. 0:00:05.360 --> 0:00:08.800 Welcome to it could happen here. I'm Garrison Davis. I'm 0:00:08.880 --> 0:00:11.639 joined by Mia Wong. It's a sort of a new week, 0:00:11.880 --> 0:00:15.160 so let's start preparing for what these next few months 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:17.240 are going to look like in the wake of Trump's 0:00:17.560 --> 0:00:22.400 election victory last week, So one thing I was thinking 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:25.640 about after the results kind of rolled in and seeing 0:00:25.640 --> 0:00:27.840 everyone's reactions online, you have a you know, a mix 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:31.160 of people going full doomer, some people trying to get 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:34.519 hopped up on hopium, some people on copium right, just 0:00:34.560 --> 0:00:37.800 trying to like find any psychological way to survive. And 0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:40.120 for me, kind of the way I like to survive 0:00:40.240 --> 0:00:42.760 is just through information. So this episode, we're going to 0:00:42.800 --> 0:00:46.120 get into how we see life for trans people under 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:49.520 a second Trump term, based on both what he's done 0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:52.040 in the past, what he's promised to do in the future. 0:00:52.440 --> 0:00:55.320 And I know, in like the days after the election, 0:00:56.280 --> 0:01:01.480 like LGBTQ, like crisis hotlines all saw massive spike in 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:03.720 people calling in to the point where some people were 0:01:03.760 --> 0:01:06.840 even unable to reach someone, And like I understand, this 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:10.600 is a very scary moment in time, and as much 0:01:10.600 --> 0:01:13.240 as it might not be fun to hear about how 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:16.160 things are all gonna get worse. There's also some misconceptions, 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:17.840 and I think there's also a degree of power in 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:23.039 actually being able to reasonably ascertain what things could look 0:01:23.160 --> 0:01:25.959 like instead of just kind of feeling it out and 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:29.000 just going purely on vibes. So to kind of start, 0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:32.160 I guess I'll mention some things that Trump did in 0:01:32.200 --> 0:01:36.160 his first term that then got undone by Biden, which 0:01:36.160 --> 0:01:38.800 will probably just end up being reinstated. We don't know 0:01:38.880 --> 0:01:41.280 these for sure, but that's like a decent guess. So 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:43.280 one of the first things Trump did when he got 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:46.040 into office is he rolled back in Obama era memo 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:49.040 directing schools to protect trans students from discrimination. 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:52.200 Yeah, and that, by the way, discrimination protection is a 0:01:52.360 --> 0:01:54.520 constant theme in this episode. It's gonna get a lot worse. 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:57.600 Trump later went on to ban trans people from serving 0:01:57.640 --> 0:02:01.240 in the military. He also went after trans making it 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:04.040 so that trans people usually would need to be housed 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:08.560 in prisons and jails according to their assigned sex at birth, 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:12.440 which is of course a very dangerous situation for people incarcerated, 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:13.800 specifically trans women. 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:17.240 Yeah, and I think there is good reason to expect 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:21.239 that treatment there is going to get worse. There's been 0:02:21.280 --> 0:02:23.960 you know, we'll get into this more later in the episode, 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:27.960 but there's been a real focus on incarcerated trans people 0:02:27.960 --> 0:02:30.080 getting health care. Yeah, and this is one of the 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:32.760 things that's kind of ambiguous as to how Trump could 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:35.160 go about trying to stop these people from getting health care. 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:38.959 So the thing about providing healthcare to trans people who 0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:42.680 have been incarcerated is that they have to do it. It 0:02:42.120 --> 0:02:44.280 is something that is required by the Constitution of the 0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:46.520 United States. The Eighth Amendment holds that there is a 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:49.800 ban on cruel and unusual punishment, and withholding medical care 0:02:50.040 --> 0:02:53.560 is so obviously a form of cruel unusual punishment that 0:02:53.639 --> 0:02:57.400 even staggeringly right wing Supreme courts have been like, no, 0:02:57.480 --> 0:03:00.639 you actually have to give people medical care in prison. 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:03.600 So this is one that's going to be a little 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:05.600 bit difficult for him to do. I don't know, he 0:03:05.680 --> 0:03:07.840 might find some way to do it. This is one 0:03:07.840 --> 0:03:10.440 of the ones where there's a real potential for it 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:13.400 to get worse, and we simply do not know enough 0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:16.360 about what legal strategy is going to be here to 0:03:16.880 --> 0:03:17.560 say for sure. 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:20.680 But it's also worth mentioning, like people have had to 0:03:20.720 --> 0:03:23.520 fight for access to healthcare in prison, Like, it's not 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:27.200 something that comes easily, Like people have had to sue 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:29.320 to make sure that they get the healthcare that they 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:32.680 are legally required to receive. And we can just assume 0:03:32.680 --> 0:03:36.400 that that process will probably be slightly more difficult under 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:38.720 a second Trump term like it was under a first 0:03:38.760 --> 0:03:41.280 Trump term, then it may kind of currently be now. 0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:43.760 So that's kind of one shift in how things might 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:45.440 be slightly more challenging. 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:48.760 Yeah, And I want to also mention so that analysis 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:51.480 and a lot of the analysis, the policy analysis that 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:54.800 I'm going to be doing going forward, is heavily indebted 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:57.480 to trans policy expert Carin Green, who we've had on 0:03:57.520 --> 0:04:00.600 the show a couple of times before Amazing. She was 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:03.680 one of the people who ended up working on compliance 0:04:03.760 --> 0:04:07.320 for that lawsuit where Kamala Harris tried to keep transprisoners 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:10.200 from getting healthcare, and she came in and like had 0:04:10.200 --> 0:04:12.720 to like ensure that the state of California was doing 0:04:12.800 --> 0:04:15.280 it and they weren't. So that's something that has been 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:17.960 fought for, and that's something I mean, the trans community 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:19.279 is small enough that that is the thing that has 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:22.479 specifically been fought for by people who I consulted to 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:25.839 make this episode. So, yeah, these these rights have been 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:27.599 dearly one and it's going to be very hard to 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:30.039 protect them. If I'm doing something where there's there's something 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:33.680 about policy implementation, assume that I talked to Krinn about 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:36.159 this and that's why it's accurate. 0:04:37.200 --> 0:04:37.920 And while I'm. 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:40.360 Doing this, I want to plug a couple of the 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:42.320 projects that she works on. But there's there's something you 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:45.200 can do very immediately right now, before we get into 0:04:45.240 --> 0:04:47.120 all of the terrible stuff that's going to happen, which 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:49.520 is you can donate to the Trans Income Project, which 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:52.480 is the project that supports trans people and transsex workers 0:04:52.480 --> 0:04:55.440 in particular, which is a lot of trans people and 0:04:55.520 --> 0:04:57.880 supports them by just giving them direct cash transfers. They 0:04:57.920 --> 0:05:00.360 used to their work too, but yeah, and it direct 0:05:00.360 --> 0:05:02.320 caast transfers are one of the most effective ways that 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:04.960 you can help trans people. And if you give money 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:06.760 to this organization, they'll be links in the chat you 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:10.440 can help do this. So let's get into how things 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:14.599 are going to get worse. Unfortunately, trudministration, Congress, and state 0:05:14.720 --> 0:05:17.680 legislators have an enormous amount of power to make everything worse. 0:05:17.720 --> 0:05:21.440 We're mostly going to be focusing on what Trump and 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:24.560 Congress can do well. We'll get into the legislator's a 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:27.279 bit at the end. So there are a lot of 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:31.720 levers of state power and sort of policy techniques that 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:34.640 Trump can pull here to make things worse. We're going 0:05:34.680 --> 0:05:37.560 to go roughly from easiest to hardest to pull off. 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:42.719 So the first lever is federal funding. Probably the easiest 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:44.560 place that this lever can get pulled is in the 0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:49.760 education system. Trump can unfortunately fairly easily implement what amounts 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:53.080 to a don't say trans ban on a federal level 0:05:53.120 --> 0:05:56.000 by threatening to withhold federal funding for any school that 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:59.080 doesn't mandate things like misgendering and dead dating students and 0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:01.240 banned And this is I think he's explicitly talked about 0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:04.240 is like banning anyone in classes, any teachers from talking 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:09.040 about traditioning at all. He's also threatened to have teachers 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:11.760 who talk to students about being trans like investigated by 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:13.680 the Department of Justice. We'll get more into Department just 0:06:13.720 --> 0:06:17.839 investigations in a bit. He's also used an explicit threat, 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:21.839 the same threat of cutting state funding to stop schools 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:24.080 some letting kids use the right bathroom in the locker 0:06:24.160 --> 0:06:27.000 room it's also possible he will do that through Title nine. 0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:30.200 But there's a lot of ways that he can do 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:33.240 this very easily that are probably not going to be 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:35.000 able to be stopped. And this is going to get 0:06:35.000 --> 0:06:39.240 extremely bad very quickly. Another sort of avenue that he 0:06:39.320 --> 0:06:42.440 has is I guess what you'd call like the High 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:45.080 Amendment for trans people. So for people who don't know 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:47.400 what the High Amendment is, the High Amendment is a 0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:52.800 writer that bans federal spending on abortion. It's been like modified, 0:06:53.440 --> 0:06:55.280 it's not like the one hundred percent band that he 0:06:55.360 --> 0:06:57.280 used to be because now there's like exceptions for rape 0:06:57.279 --> 0:07:00.120 and incests and stuff life of their parents too. But 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:02.680 it is a very very effective Republican tool. It's actually 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:05.919 also Joe Biden helped implement that that's been used to 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:10.400 limit are access to abortion, and we already have seen 0:07:10.520 --> 0:07:13.679 the start of these kind of things even under Biden. 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:15.960 There was a version of this of a kind of 0:07:16.000 --> 0:07:18.400 High Amendment for trans healthcare that was an attempt to 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:20.720 get the DoD to not be able to spend money 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:24.840 on trans healthcare. That's already a provision that's been tacked 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:27.480 onto one of the most recent spending bills. That went 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:31.520 through because Joe Manchin like defected and joined the Republicans 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:35.080 to get it onto one of the spending omnibuses, and 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:37.480 that was again just for the Department of Defense. We 0:07:37.520 --> 0:07:39.480 are very likely to see versions of these attached to 0:07:39.560 --> 0:07:44.280 every single spending bill that explicitly say that government funding 0:07:44.320 --> 0:07:47.640 cannot be used for trans healthcare. It will definitely be 0:07:47.760 --> 0:07:49.400 used to do to say you can't use it for 0:07:49.440 --> 0:07:52.360 trans healthcare for minors. It is possible this will be 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:55.480 expanded to adults. We don't know. It depends how far 0:07:55.880 --> 0:08:00.200 there's sort of anti trans I don't know the arrangement goes, 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:04.240 but that that is a real danger. And this can 0:08:04.280 --> 0:08:08.040 also be expanded to refusing to allow Medicare and Medicaid 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:11.120 to pay for anything at a clinic that does trans healthcare, 0:08:11.160 --> 0:08:14.119 even if the money isn't funding the healthcare. That's also 0:08:14.160 --> 0:08:18.000 possible that would be absolutely catastrophic for the medical system. 0:08:19.040 --> 0:08:21.480 Even just a government band that you know, prevents things 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:24.720 like Medicare and Medicaid and like government health care from 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:28.840 covering transition in the first place is a disaster. But 0:08:29.040 --> 0:08:33.280 if they go further and you know, prevent clinics who 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:37.800 like provide trans healthcare from taking Medicare and Medicaid. That's 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:39.960 bad enough that I think that is in terms of 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:41.560 what is the thing we most need to be worried 0:08:41.559 --> 0:08:43.520 about right now, I think that's the worst possible thing 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:45.160 that can happen very quickly, because. 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:47.559 It could basically pressure medical clinics into refusing to offer 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:50.080 any kind of gender affirming care because it would threaten 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:52.440 their just base ability to operate as a medical clinic 0:08:52.679 --> 0:08:54.800 taking Medicare, Medicaid, et cetera. 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:56.920 Yeah, this is the thing I talked about a bit 0:08:56.960 --> 0:08:58.960 in our Agenda forty seven episode on this. But this 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:02.760 is this effectually create It's like Sophie's choice for these 0:09:02.800 --> 0:09:05.960 clinics because it's either you treat trans people who have 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:10.320 private insurance, right, or you can treat like people who 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:13.079 have who are a medicaa Medicaid. So it's like, okay, 0:09:13.120 --> 0:09:15.160 either either you let trans people get fucked or you 0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:18.920 let like every poor person or old person in the 0:09:19.040 --> 0:09:20.680 US like eat shit. 0:09:21.000 --> 0:09:23.959 So there aren't good options here for that. 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:26.079 How do we think something like this would be implemented? 0:09:26.160 --> 0:09:27.960 Like is this an executive order or does this have 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:29.000 to go through Congress? 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:31.520 So that's the other part about this. That's very bad. 0:09:31.800 --> 0:09:34.920 The way this is being done is these things are 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:38.320 attached to what are called writers to spending bills. So 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:40.520 any spending bill Republican's put in front of the House, 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:43.559 they will have this like provision in it, right, And 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:47.079 the really big problem for us is that spending bills 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:51.080 usually get past now out of this thing called Senate reconciliation. 0:09:51.679 --> 0:09:53.840 And the thing about Senate reconciliation is that you can't 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:57.840 fill a buster them, so these can just get rammed 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:00.719 through really really quickly, and there's not going to be 0:10:00.840 --> 0:10:03.760 enough opposition in the House to stop it either. So 0:10:04.160 --> 0:10:06.079 I mean, some of this stuff probably could be done 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:08.360 with executive orders, but it's quite possible you won't even 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:10.200 need that because it can just be rammed through in 0:10:10.240 --> 0:10:11.559 spending bills, which. 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:14.199 Is a little bit harder to undo from my understanding. 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:17.120 Yeah, yeah, executive orders can be overturned by the next guy, 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:19.840 whereas getting these provisions out is going to take a 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:22.560 long time. Yeah, you know, this is another issue that 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:25.320 we have. The map for the Democrats retaking the Senate 0:10:25.679 --> 0:10:28.600 is terrible in twenty twenty six, and it's bad in 0:10:28.600 --> 0:10:31.720 twenty twenty eight two. So I still don't think this 0:10:31.800 --> 0:10:33.959 is being recorded Friday. I don't think we still actually 0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:36.120 know what their majority in the Senate's going to be. 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:36.839 But it's a lot. 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:40.360 And also we know that Joe Manchin is willing to 0:10:40.440 --> 0:10:42.280 vote for stuff like this because he's done it already, 0:10:42.720 --> 0:10:48.880 So this is probably coming quickly. It basically depends on 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:55.320 how good their policy people are, which who knows. But yeah, 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:56.800 this is not going to be difficult for them to 0:10:56.800 --> 0:10:58.880 implement and it's going to be extremely damaging. 0:10:59.320 --> 0:11:02.160 Well, that was a lot. Let's take a little bit 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:04.640 of a break and will we come back, take another 0:11:04.720 --> 0:11:07.280 look into what life could be like under a second 0:11:07.280 --> 0:11:18.280 Trump term. 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:19.120 We are back. 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:22.199 So the threat to trans people does not only come 0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:26.120 from Congress and the President. One of the things that's 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:29.080 almost certainly going to happen very soon is there is 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:32.600 currently a case about a trans healthcare band from Miners 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:35.320 and Tennessee in front of the Supreme Court. It's called 0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:39.960 Scrimetti versus Us. We are almost certainly going to lose this. 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:45.000 Not losing this requires a bunch of extremely unlikely things happening, 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:49.079 and this is very, very bad. What Scrimetti versus Us 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:52.079 is probably going to cost us is trans people as 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:55.400 a group being protected by the fourteenth Amendment. So the 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:58.760 fourteenth Amendment is supposed to provide everyone equal protection under 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:01.280 the law. The way that's been interpreted is that if 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:03.760 you're passing a law that directly targets a group, there 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:06.240 are certain levels of scrutiny that have to be applied 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:09.760 to it to see whether or not it's discriminatory and 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:13.200 can be allowed to proceed. What's probably going to happen 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:14.920 here is that trans people aren't going to be held 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:17.920 as protected at all, which means that the fourteenth Amendment 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:22.080 will not protect us from things that are unbelievably obviously discriminatory, 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:25.640 like healthcare bands for youth, which is again literally the 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:28.360 same procedures that are happening for trans children are done 0:12:28.400 --> 0:12:30.720 to SIS children all the time, and it's fine. Yeah, 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:33.160 so this is very obviously discrimination. We're probably going to 0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:36.240 lose it because the Supreme Court is full of a 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:38.960 bunch of the worst people in the entire world. It 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:42.760 is technically possible that Gorstch defects and drags someone else 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:45.800 over and we get a thing that says we have 0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:49.720 intermediate scrutiny. That would be the best win we could 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.560 possibly get on this. It's extremely it's unlikely. We're probably 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:55.680 going to lose it. And this is also going to 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:59.480 overturn the landmark case Bostock versus Clayton County, which is 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:02.280 the one that rules that you can't discriminate against transpeople 0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:03.800 based on gener identity. 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:05.480 Specifically for like employers as well. 0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:08.640 Yeah, for employees. Is specifically for employers. So what we 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:10.839 could very well be about to lose. And again, this 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:13.280 is another thing that's very high likelihood because this case 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:14.760 they're ready in front of the Supreme Court, and the 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:17.720 Supreme Court hates us. We could be about to lose 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:20.800 employment discrimination protections now. To be fair, and I think 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:22.960 most trans people who are listening to the show know this. 0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:25.160 I don't know how many SIS people understand this, but 0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:30.679 the level of trans employment discrimination in the workplace is unbelievable. 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:35.200 Yeah, this isn't really enforced at all. Yeah, it's pretty bad. 0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:38.160 It is something that right now is technically possible to 0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:41.040 do and you're not allowed to just straight up to 0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:43.520 say it. But you know, like there is a reason 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:46.200 that the unemployment rate for trans people is like three 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:47.960 times as high. No, it's actually it's Yeah, I think 0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:49.560 it's about three times as high as the rate for 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:52.760 SIS people. Right we don't have great data. There's some 0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:55.880 data from the Trans Student Survey from twenty twenty two, 0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:58.920 but the full report isn't out yet. But what I 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:01.160 will say is that the the trans level of unemployed 0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:02.880 unemployment right now in the US is very low. The 0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:06.080 level of unemployment for trans people is nineteen thirty six, 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:09.719 great depression levels, and this is before we lose these protections. 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:13.120 It is also worth noting this will not overturn like 0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:15.079 state level of protections. So if you're in a state 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:19.240 that like has specifically bandit, you will have some more recourse. 0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:22.680 But we're losing fourteenth medic protections. But a federal level 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:28.800 would basically allow explicit employment discrimination. Yeah, if someone's trans, 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:32.280 it's possible that case goes like marginally better for us 0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:34.480 and that doesn't happen. But it's hard to see how 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:37.640 that would happen. The lawyers I talked to you will 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:39.960 say this is not this is not a legal opinion, 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:41.920 but they seem to think that this is how this 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:43.720 would go, and the policy people seem to think it'd 0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:46.560 be going the same way. Yeah, there's some other things 0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:49.520 that can happen. Trump has been promising, We're going to 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:52.840 get federal investigations into clinics that provide gender affirming care, 0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:57.520 also into hospitals. You know, there's gonna be enormous legal harassment. 0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:59.720 This has already been happening on a sort of lower level, 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:02.880 but from sort of individual lawsuits and state attorney generals. 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:04.920 But this is going to be happening with the full 0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:07.080 backing of the Department of Justice. You can look at 0:15:07.120 --> 0:15:10.040 like what Texas has been doing the past four years. Yeah, 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:12.720 with them investigating not just clinics, but also like parents 0:15:12.720 --> 0:15:17.000 of trans kids. Yeah, parents, like individual health care providers. 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.040 He was also pledging to investigate like the companies that 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:20.760 make hormones. 0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:22.520 So that's bad. 0:15:22.760 --> 0:15:24.800 There's also the Department of Justice has been making some 0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:27.600 incredibly half assed attempts to try to go after some 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:28.800 of the healthcare bans. 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:30.480 That's all going to stop. They're just going to give 0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:30.920 all that up. 0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:34.120 There's also a bunch of bills that could be passed, 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:37.960 depending on the Democrats' willingness to filibuster them. So Trump 0:15:38.000 --> 0:15:41.440 has called for a ban of trans people like playing 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:44.800 sports that correspond with their gender, and that may well 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:48.840 pass because the Democrats are cowards, and the Republicans are 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:51.640 going to have a large majority in the Senate. Trump 0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:54.360 has also pushed for a ban on gender firming care 0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:59.040 for minors, including hrits homo replacement therapy, which is like 0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:01.960 one of the main ways transition and puberty blockers. That 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:03.960 one is less likely to make it through the Senate. 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:07.960 But it also again depends on how cowardly the Democrats 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:10.000 are and how much they decide to cave. And this 0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:11.680 is the moment that there is another thing that you 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:13.600 can do and you should start doing this right now, 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:16.120 which is this is the moment right now to start 0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:19.600 pressuring your congress person about this, like start calling them, 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:23.880 start pressuring them, and start making sure that they don't 0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:26.480 fully sort of turn on trans rights. This is just 0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:29.280 something that you can concretely do right now, because these 0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:32.720 people need to understand that there are consequences for turning 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:34.880 on trans people, because if there aren't consequences, they are 0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:37.760 going to do it now. Trump has also called for 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:41.160 a ban on recognizing trans people at a federal level 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:44.560 on like all identification documents things like that also would 0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:48.080 outlaw non binary marketings on passports and stuff. That would 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:50.600 also be really bad. That's also something that probably requires 0:16:50.600 --> 0:16:55.120 a law. And that's again and everything. Call your congress people, 0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:58.640 like pressure them now, start doing it now, do not 0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:00.000 wait until he's actually an office. 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:02.880 Like, all of these issues are things that public opinion 0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:06.080 has been shifting on greatly the past like two years. Yeah, 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:08.080 these things used to be much more kind of seen 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:10.000 as like, yeah, this like makes sense. This is like 0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:13.560 a humane and reasonable effort to include a group of 0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:17.360 discriminated people. And now we see in a growing number 0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:19.719 a majority of people pull on this issue do not 0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:23.720 support these measures. They don't support having the ability to 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:26.640 have your gender marker match your gener identity. They don't 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:29.720 support your ability to participate in public life. And that 0:17:29.840 --> 0:17:34.280 is the result of an intentional misinformation campaign and essentially 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:37.639 like a hate crime campaign and a hate speech campaign 0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:39.360 that that has been going on for the past like 0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:42.280 four years because Republicans knew that they already lost the 0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:45.439 battle on like regular gay people, so they moved on 0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:48.400 to the next subjugated class. And that's something we've talked 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:51.280 about for a while. And this is like something that 0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:54.360 is shifting. So you have to actually verbally express to 0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:56.359 your representatives that this is something that you actually do 0:17:56.440 --> 0:17:59.159 care about. Otherwise they will look at these like general 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:02.000 polls and be like, oh, this isn't popular anymore and 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:03.960 shift and cave on it. They need to know that 0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:06.720 their constituents actually do care about these things if we 0:18:06.800 --> 0:18:09.000 want these things to not get passed through Congress. 0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:12.240 Yeah, and it's also worth mentioning that a lot of 0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:15.320 this people just don't know anything about about trans people 0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:18.080 because we're like one percent of the population right now. 0:18:18.600 --> 0:18:20.560 Part of the reason the Republican campaign is working is 0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:23.600 that people are susceptible to being told things about trans 0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:25.959 people and believing them. But that also works for us, right, 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:27.679 it goes both ways. Part of what's been going on 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:30.439 is that, like, we haven't had the kind of giant 0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:34.320 advocacy push outside of some trans people, but we have 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:37.400 no money, we have no resources, and we need there 0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:41.080 to actually be large, widespread and vocal public support because 0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:44.480 otherwise all of the stuff that's happening here is going 0:18:44.480 --> 0:18:47.520 to get even worse. And you know the word when 0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:50.040 we could get very well, the worst case scenario things 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:53.000 which are full bands for adults. That's the thing that 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:56.920 they could pass through Congress, But right now they don't 0:18:56.920 --> 0:19:00.600 have the support for it. Yeah, However, Comma's going to 0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:03.199 get to there are signs that the Democratic Party is 0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:05.119 deciding to throw us under the bus. 0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:09.840 Yeah, not as steadfast on this issue then what we 0:19:09.840 --> 0:19:10.680 will probably prefer. 0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:13.080 Yeah, And on the state level, I guess the important 0:19:13.119 --> 0:19:14.800 thing for the state level is that once we lose 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:17.160 fourteenth Ament protections, it's going to be so much harder 0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:18.679 for there to be legal challenges to any of this. 0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:22.560 And this means we're going to see a proliferation of 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:26.720 these state level bans on healthcare, even sort of marching. 0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:28.840 Ahead of where the federal government is. 0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:31.520 Let's have our last break, and when we come back, 0:19:31.560 --> 0:19:34.320 we will close the episode by discussing Trump's focus on 0:19:34.359 --> 0:19:38.160 trans issues during his campaign, as well as things that 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:41.000 you can start doing, like right now, to get ready 0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:51.760 and prepare for these next four years. 0:19:53.200 --> 0:19:54.840 All right, we are back. 0:19:55.480 --> 0:19:58.720