1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:09,120 Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 2 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:18,759 Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey, p Joe, Pisa, Pia. 3 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 1: We got a great show for you today. The NBA 4 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: Finals is beginning and we're gonna walk you through it 5 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: with one of my favorite people. He is the host 6 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 1: of in This League podcast network. You can also find 7 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 1: his work at Line Star as well, hosting all their 8 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: podcasts and so much more. He's the one, the only 9 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:39,639 Speaker 1: Scott Bogman. Bogman, Welcome to the show, my friend. I'm 10 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 1: ready to talk a little NBA with you. 11 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. Yeah. 12 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:45,839 Speaker 3: Man, this has been an exciting playoffs and I know 13 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 3: people are talking about whatever team wins is gonna need 14 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 3: an asterisk. 15 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 2: I don't like that narrative at all. 16 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 3: I think that's dumb because of all the injuries, because 17 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 3: of you know, all the injuries, so but you know, 18 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 3: staying healthy is part of it. So I'm excited for 19 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 3: the Suns Bucks Finals. I think it's going to be 20 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 3: a great one. 21 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: And that's what we do have. We have the Phoenix 22 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: Suns and the Milwaukee Bucks. Here. We got Yannis hopefully 23 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 1: healthy enough to make a difference. We're going to get 24 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: into that and a whole lot of the other narratives. 25 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 1: But you know, I forget the asterisk because I think 26 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 1: that's always a cop out nonsense. You get there, you 27 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: get there, That's what it is. But I mean, these 28 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 1: are two teams right now. Yeah, I would say both 29 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 1: efficient offenses, good defenses, and at the end of the day, 30 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 1: I mean, like, the teams that get to the finals 31 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 1: are the ones that play both ends of the court. 32 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,559 Speaker 1: Did not every team does that? With Gwen gun nuj nudge, 33 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 1: we know that. So are you surprised at all that 34 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:36,039 Speaker 1: this is how it ended up? 35 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 3: Not really? I mean specifically after the injuries. I mean, 36 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 3: you know, when Kuhi got hurt, I thought that the 37 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 3: Clipper series for the Suns was going to be a 38 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 3: tough one. But Kuhi got hurt, he wasn't able to 39 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 3: play that series. So I was not surprised that the 40 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 3: Suns buzzed past them the Bucks. I think a lot 41 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 3: of people were surprised that they got past the Nets. 42 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 3: I just think, really, you know, Harden getting banged up 43 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 3: and Irving going down in that series obviously hurt them 44 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 3: a ton, But I think that was just really a 45 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 3: lack of experience together with those guys before that. So 46 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 3: it's not surprising to me that the Bucks are playing 47 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 3: the Suns in the playoffs at this point. 48 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,399 Speaker 2: I think I would have expected the Bucks a little. 49 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 3: Bit more than the Suns, you know, starting the playoffs, 50 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 3: but they've burned through the Lakers, and after they burned 51 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 3: through the Lakers, I knew they had a chance. 52 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 2: So it should be a really really exciting one. 53 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: I know everyone wanted to anoint the nets, you know, 54 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 1: and all of that, but I think you've been going 55 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: up a great point, which is basically, you know, it 56 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: does take kind of time for these things to gel together. 57 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 3: And we say that Chris Paul walks right into Phoenix 58 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:41,920 Speaker 3: and takes him to the final. 59 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 2: Well, Tom Brady, I mean, that's kind of crazy, but. 60 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 1: More often than not it is the former. More often 61 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 1: that there's a little transition to help me back again 62 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:51,920 Speaker 1: together trying to you know, do it all again. If 63 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,519 Speaker 1: Kyrie Irving will be back, necessarily we'll figure that all out. 64 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 1: But now that we're looking at these two teams, what's 65 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,959 Speaker 1: your assessment in terms of momentum Before we go breaking down, 66 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 1: we are we're going to talk about Game one. We're 67 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 1: going to go through Bogman's picks to win it all. 68 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,959 Speaker 1: We're going to talk about the wagering prop best the MVP, 69 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 1: and a few other things too, including how many games 70 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: this series is going to go and how he thinks 71 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: about that. But when you're looking at the assessment heading 72 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: into the finals, momentum, health, obviously both things kind of 73 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:21,960 Speaker 1: loom large right now. Who do you think kind of, 74 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: you know, has all that stuff working for them a 75 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: little bit more? 76 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 3: I think the edge has to go to the Suns 77 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 3: because you know, Ga is doubtful to play Game one. 78 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 3: You know, they think he's going to come back in 79 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 3: the series because it is more of a day to 80 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 3: day thing. I know, our guy doctor Chow has talked 81 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 3: about how it's you know, it looks like he might 82 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 3: be out for the playoffs and maybe that's the case. 83 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 3: Maybe they're just talking it up and all that because 84 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 3: it's kind of that hybridxtension seem pretty bad when it happened. 85 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 3: But I think you have to give the momentum to 86 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 3: the Suns because they're complete, They got more rest that 87 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 3: they're coming in without having to change their dynamic. And 88 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 3: I know Chuck you know, Charles Barkley said on that 89 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 3: he thinks the best thing for the Bucks was Shea 90 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 3: going down because they move the ball more efficiently, more 91 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 3: goes through Middleton than GA. 92 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 2: You know. 93 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 3: So I get that, but that is a big time 94 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 3: adjustment that you don't want to be making in your 95 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 3: final seven games of the season. So I think that 96 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 3: the momentum side has to go to the Suns. 97 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:23,840 Speaker 1: All right, some key numbers here from betting pros before 98 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 1: we jump into things here. Look, the Milwaukee Bucks have 99 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: lost only one home game this postseason, there's seven to one, 100 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:31,039 Speaker 1: but they lost four games on the road. They're five 101 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 1: and four. On the flip side, the Phoenix Suns are 102 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:35,160 Speaker 1: six and two on the road and six and two 103 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 1: at home, so they've been good everywhere. And Phoenix has 104 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 1: posted one hundred and sixteen and a half points per 105 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 1: game at home and one hundred and fourteen on the 106 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 1: road this year. So look, is Boggin's kind of saying, 107 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 1: it seems like right now Phoenix is the favorite. But 108 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,360 Speaker 1: let's go through this and kind of figure out where 109 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: we want to place our chips here when it comes 110 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 1: to the NBA Finals. And let's start here with Game one. 111 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: It is in Phoenix right now, the Phoenix Suns are 112 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: six and a half point favorites. In terms of the 113 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:03,800 Speaker 1: spread the money line, you got plus two zero five 114 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 1: on the Milwaukee Bucks Bucks minus two fifty for the 115 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 1: Phoenix Suns, and the over under on this game is 116 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: two nineteen and a half. So when it comes to 117 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: game one here right out of the gate, what about 118 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: these numbers kind of makes you want to go to 119 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 1: a certain spot. Obviously you have to lay a ton 120 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: of money here. Phoenix is a heavy favorite in game 121 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: one at home. No Jiannis all of those factors, But 122 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: what do you think about the over under and the 123 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: spread because it seems like there might be some possibility 124 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 1: to make some money there. 125 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:33,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel like I'm gonna take the under on this. 126 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 3: And you know, I know you said these teams are 127 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 3: both good on both sides, but they're both one and 128 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 3: two in defensive efficiency during the regular season, So I 129 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 3: think taking the under. 130 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 2: What is it two nineteen and. 131 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 1: A halfeen and a half. 132 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I think I take the under on game one. 133 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 3: This is also going to be a weird uh, you know, 134 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 3: I guess tone setting game as well. I don't know, 135 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 3: I definitely wouldn't you know. I think the Suns are 136 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 3: gonna win, and that's you're giving away too much to 137 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 3: make money there, So I'm not gonna bet the straight 138 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 3: money line. I think I would take the Suns minus 139 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 3: to six and a half. I think the atmosphere is 140 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 3: gonna be insane here in Phoenix for Game one. The 141 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 3: town this is a basketball town. I've lived here for 142 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 3: over twenty five years, and this is a basketball town 143 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,719 Speaker 3: because the Suns were first and this is the second 144 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 3: finals they've ever made, first one since nineteen ninety three. 145 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 3: That people are excited. There's a buzz in the air. 146 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 3: It's gonna be great. So I think that I'm gonna 147 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 3: take the Suns minus is six and a half if 148 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 3: I'm betting on the game. But I think my favorite 149 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:41,839 Speaker 3: bet is probably the under for tonight because they're gonna 150 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,280 Speaker 3: kind of be playing it out, you know, feeling each 151 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:46,840 Speaker 3: other out. This is a it's gonna be I think 152 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 3: there's gonna be a long series and I think this 153 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 3: is gonna be a fun game one. 154 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 1: The last time the Suns fans were this excited probably 155 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 1: was going back to those Charles Barkley, Dan Marley, kJ 156 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 1: Kind of days. Those were some fun teams for sure. 157 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 3: The Bozeman was hitting big shots and not just a 158 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:03,840 Speaker 3: guy on Twitter, you know. 159 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:06,159 Speaker 1: Right, take a shots. Yeah, it's true. Now when we're 160 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: looking at the series total games, when you're looking over 161 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 1: on FanDuel for a sweep, you've got a plus six 162 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 1: hundred number there, which again seems a little unlikely. You know, 163 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 1: sweeps are really just one team just blowing the other 164 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 1: team out of the water, and I think that's going 165 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: to be a tough sell here from the Milwaukee standpoint. 166 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: Then you go to five games plus two forty six 167 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 1: games plus two hundred seven games plus one nineties, so 168 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: all of a sudden, it drops precipitously from the six 169 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: to between one ninety and two forty. Where's the sweet 170 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 1: spot for you? If you're gonna choose one of these 171 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: in terms of the length of the series, how you 172 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: see this probably going out? And look, maybe maybe there 173 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 1: is something to this idea that maybe Honest isn't going 174 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 1: to play. And if he doesn't, does this push you 175 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 1: towards the five to six instead of the six to seven. 176 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 3: No, I don't think it does. I think this is 177 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 3: a six or seven for me. I think I would 178 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 3: take six because it pays a little bit more, so 179 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:00,200 Speaker 3: I think that's where I would go with it. But 180 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 3: I think this is a long series even if GA 181 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 3: doesn't play, because they look Milwaukee after losing Ga in 182 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 3: the last two games against Atlanta never lost the lead 183 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 3: in those games. 184 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 2: They are very efficient. 185 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 3: So Chuck, you know, Chuck is saying this a little 186 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 3: tongue in chic because you know, Ga is one of 187 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 3: the best players in the NBA, and of course your 188 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 3: team is better if you have him. But you know, 189 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 3: they they move the ball efficiently. They look crisp without 190 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 3: him right now, So I think it's going to be, 191 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 3: you know, contested series even if GA doesn't play at all. 192 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 3: So I would my pick would be six games. 193 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: All right, when you're looking ahead to the series spread 194 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 1: in terms of winning and losing, here the Bucks winning 195 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 1: by one and a half there on the money line 196 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 1: and the Suns minus one and a half plus one 197 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: fourteen for the Sons minus one forty. Any thoughts here 198 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:55,199 Speaker 1: on that number, I. 199 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 3: Think I take the Sun this minus you know, the 200 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 3: one and a half. So okay, yeah, I I think 201 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:02,079 Speaker 3: that's a pretty good bet, especially if I think it's 202 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:02,840 Speaker 3: gonna end in six. 203 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: That makes sense, all right, Well, if you think it's 204 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 1: gonna end in six, then I guess the question becomes 205 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: who's the champion at the end of that series? Because 206 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 1: right now a consensus we're looking as Phoenix Suns minus 207 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: two hundred and Milwaukee Bucks plus one seventy five to 208 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 1: get in before the season series excuse me begins. So, 209 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 1: I mean, look, you know, when you come down to this, 210 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 1: it's clear that Phoenix is the favorite in this. We 211 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:27,559 Speaker 1: we've kind of established that going in. But you know what, 212 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:30,200 Speaker 1: the plus one seventy five is that enough to even 213 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 1: get involved in the potential? I guess upset because it's 214 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: not a huge potential one either. So are you better 215 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,959 Speaker 1: off just kind of laying the favor here, putting heavy 216 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 1: money down on the favorite for the minus two hundred, 217 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 1: Playing it that way and in a way safe but 218 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 1: also probably the better investment considering all the possible negatives 219 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 1: Milwaukee's dealing with in the series. 220 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Suns minus two hundred. 221 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:56,200 Speaker 3: Like you said, I'm going to lay the bigger money, 222 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 3: and I know sometimes that's hard to do, but you 223 00:09:59,920 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 3: know it's just the Bucks have such a big problem 224 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,559 Speaker 3: with Ga. Even if he does come back, how effective 225 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 3: is he going to be? Is it going to be 226 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 3: like when the Lakers try to bring a d back 227 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 3: and he's going to go right back out? 228 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 2: You know? 229 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 3: So I think that I would be I'd be putting 230 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 3: more money on the longer, you know, the minus two 231 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 3: hundred than I would be just a plu. That number 232 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:24,959 Speaker 3: is not big enough for me to take the bucks 233 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:26,199 Speaker 3: in this series without Ga. 234 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 1: Let me set up a scenario that is possible to 235 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 1: play out, and I want to get your take on 236 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 1: this in terms of the line potentially moving. So let's 237 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: say the Suns are up two games to one, and 238 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:38,679 Speaker 1: then we get that fourth game. Giannis is back by 239 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 1: the fourth game, Let's say he has a huge game 240 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 1: and the series is tied two. Is that something where 241 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:47,440 Speaker 1: you believe then a little bit more or do you 242 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:50,079 Speaker 1: think you just go right back and double down on 243 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: the Phoenix Suns because all of a sudden, maybe the 244 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 1: Phoenix Sun's favorite number in the negative column comes back 245 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: a little bit from that minus two to maybe somewhere 246 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: more like a one to fifty or a one to 247 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: ten or something like that. 248 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 3: No, they if Ga plays and they take momentum on 249 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 3: that game. He has an enormous game. He plays a 250 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 3: bunch of minutes and he looks good. I think I would, 251 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 3: you know, I would. They're taking momentum at that point too. 252 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 3: I would go back and bet on the bucks. I 253 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 3: just don't. My gut feeling is that Ga is not 254 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 3: going to play at all. You know, I know that they. 255 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 2: Say he is. I hope he does. I would love 256 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 2: to see him in the finals. 257 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 3: You know, it always sucks when you see a guy 258 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,319 Speaker 3: finally get there but he's banged up and he can't play. 259 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 2: But I just have a feeling that he's not going 260 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 2: to play in this series. 261 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 1: All right, let's move forward here with the NBA Finals 262 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 1: MVP and take a look at the numbers here. Chris 263 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 1: Paul the favorite at plus one fifty five, Devin Booker 264 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 1: plus two fifty. Then you've got Middleton at plus five fifty, 265 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 1: Yannis at plus six fifty, which I mean, if the 266 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 1: guy plays and he plays well enough and pulls a 267 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: willis reed. I mean, he used to say that that 268 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: number doesn't pay off. Now that's kind of the fun bet. 269 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 1: Then he got Drew Holliday at seven fifty on the 270 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 1: plus side, and you know a few other guys like 271 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:03,559 Speaker 1: Brook Lopez sixty five to one. You're all going to 272 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 1: talk about these guys. Let's talk about the guys that 273 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: really have a chance here, because this is typically that 274 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: Star Award, so you're getting a pretty decent number here. 275 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 1: I think with Chris Paul at plus one fifty five, 276 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on the favorite and what are 277 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 1: your thoughts on the rest of this field? 278 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you know, my favorite is definitely Chris 279 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:23,440 Speaker 3: Paul and at that number, Like you said, I like him. 280 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 3: I don't see a way that the Suns win and 281 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 3: he doesn't get the MVP. You know, there's so much 282 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 3: This is the narrative, this is the storyline built into 283 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,599 Speaker 3: this finals. Is Chris Paul finally getting there, being the 284 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 3: difference for the Suns, you know, super emotional making the 285 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 3: finals for the first time. I don't see a way 286 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 3: if the Suns win, he's not MVP, if the Bucks win. 287 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 3: I think there's a multitude of guys that could get 288 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 3: in here. 289 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: Let's walk through those. What are some of those scenarios 290 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:52,959 Speaker 1: you can paint here for people who maybe want to 291 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 1: get in, maybe on smaller wagers, on some of these 292 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: bigger odds a little bit just to hedge the Chris Paul. 293 00:12:57,800 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: You know, he could drop a big number on Chris 294 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:01,199 Speaker 1: Paul at the plus one fifty five, right, you know, 295 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 1: let's let's you know, let's call him a hundred on that. 296 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:05,839 Speaker 1: If you had ten or twenty more to throw somewhere, 297 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: where would you want to throw it? 298 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 2: Right? 299 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:10,080 Speaker 3: Well, Middleton I think is going to be the leading 300 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 3: scorer for the Bucks. You've seen the ball run through him. 301 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,959 Speaker 3: Good defensive player too, so you know he's going to 302 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 3: be stopping Booker or Paul or somebody and and scoring 303 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 3: on the other end. So I think he's the best buck, 304 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 3: best bet for the Bucks to win. 305 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 2: I love Gabe for your buck. 306 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 1: That's actually that's right. 307 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:31,840 Speaker 3: I like that GA plus six fifty is great, especially 308 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 3: if he comes back in game two or three, you know, 309 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 3: kind of unexpectedly. But you know, like like I said before, 310 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 3: I think that's kind of yeah, it might be lighting 311 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 3: your money on fire if the guy doesn't play, So 312 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 3: I don't know that I would bet him my other one, 313 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 3: brook Lopez. Look, this number is enormous at plus sixty 314 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:53,439 Speaker 3: five hundred for brook Lopez, and he has he has 315 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 3: to shut down eight and for the Bucks to have 316 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 3: a shot here, and I think he can. He leads 317 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 3: the playoffs in a block shots and steals. He's playing 318 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 3: like you know he has he's doing all the HGH 319 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 3: or something like he's Tom Brady. 320 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 2: I mean he is. 321 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:12,440 Speaker 3: He is turning back the clock right now and he 322 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 3: looks fantastic. So if he is big and just frustrating 323 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 3: Ayighton and you know the he's going to be one 324 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 3: of the main factors in the Bucks if they win 325 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 3: this series. He'll grab those rebounds which both of these 326 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 3: teams have been doing very well. He'll be stopping a 327 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 3: big factor in eighton and he'll be big on the 328 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 3: offensive side too. So I think throwing a couple shekels 329 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 3: on Brook Lopez isn't a bad bet at this gigantic 330 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 3: number right here. 331 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 1: All right, let's step into the pouch of shekels and 332 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 1: talk about the top scorer. We have Devin Booker at 333 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: minus one fifty five. Again this numbers from the Fanduels Sportsbook, 334 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 1: specifically Chris Middleton at plus one eighty five. Then, of 335 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 1: course you go to Giannis, who were slightly concerned about 336 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 1: you got eighten us Paul Drew Holliday all at ten 337 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 1: to one. But what are your thoughts here on about 338 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 1: Booker Middleton here? Because these are the two favorites. Obviously 339 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 1: you're getting a much better number with the plus one 340 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 1: a five on Middleton minus one fifty five on Booker. 341 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 1: Is it a stay away because you think it's Booker? 342 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: Or you think Middleton really has a shot at this? 343 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 3: Anything anything not Booker in this series is a sucker spat. 344 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 3: So it's uh, it's definitely Booker. I love Middleton and 345 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 3: he'll probably lead the Bucks in scoring, but they'll still 346 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 3: spread it out. I mean, Booker can go absolutely off. 347 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 3: So uh, I think it's Booker. I don't think it's close, 348 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 3: and there's no one else id bet on. 349 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's take a look then at Booker's number, 350 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 1: shall we? Because that number? Look at that segue, so good. 351 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 1: Twenty eight and a half right now, that is the 352 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 1: number they've set for his series point average minus one 353 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 1: thirteen on both sides on the over on the under, 354 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: So twenty and a half. Obviously it's a good number. 355 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 1: This is what they do. They set these really good numbers. 356 00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 1: So do you want to go over under? Or is 357 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 1: it a stay away and instead you just kind of 358 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 1: maybe double down and put more money over on Booker 359 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 1: being the top point score at the minus one fifty five. 360 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 3: That's what I would do. I don't think this is 361 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 3: such a good number. Like you said, you know that 362 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 3: they're paid to make good numbers, so this is such 363 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 3: a good number. But I think with both these teams 364 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 3: being defensively efficient, I mean, Drew Holiday probably drawing Booker 365 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 3: if he is absolutely going off, I think it's going 366 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 3: to be under that if I had to bet one. 367 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 2: But I think i'd stay away from that number. 368 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 1: All right, There you have it. You know there's one 369 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,600 Speaker 1: more on here too, just since you mentioned brook Lopez, 370 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 1: let's throw it out there too, because maybe you see 371 00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 1: a little possibility here. The number for brook Lopez in 372 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: terms of his series point average, fourteen and a half 373 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 1: is the over under your thoughts on that. 374 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 3: I don't have a good feel for that number. I 375 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 3: think I think that's a good number. I would say 376 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 3: I'd probably say under if I had to pick something, 377 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 3: But I'm more on brook Lopez frustrating eight and you know, 378 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 3: maybe get into the foul line. So maybe you would 379 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:06,199 Speaker 3: go over on that, But I like Lopez winning the 380 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 3: MVP as a long shot, of course, just throwing you know, 381 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 3: ten to fifteen bucks on whatever it is because of 382 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,439 Speaker 3: his defensive side, not because of his scoring, although he 383 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 3: can't score very good. 384 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 1: All right. So, now that the NBA season is kind 385 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 1: of you know, almost at the end here, your big 386 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 1: takeaway is going into next season, because I know you're 387 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 1: an NBA guy, so I'm just kind of curious what 388 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 1: you think kind of carries over. Are we going to 389 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,960 Speaker 1: get a better, more complete version of the nets next year? 390 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 1: Are going to get the Lakers kind of reconfigured? Like 391 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:38,439 Speaker 1: where do you think things are going here in this offseason? 392 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:41,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, of course we're going to have the Olympics, 393 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 3: and a lot of these guys are playing through that too. 394 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 3: But I am looking forward to these players getting rest 395 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 3: because they really didn't you know, they didn't get any 396 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 3: rest last year, and it was rough, and the injuries 397 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 3: are piling up, and this is why part of the 398 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 3: reason why they want to have the asterisk right on 399 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 3: this finals, because this year has been so littered with injuries. 400 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 3: So I'm looking forward to the you know, a real 401 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:11,360 Speaker 3: NBA draft, a real summer league. The Olympics and resting 402 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,439 Speaker 3: these players so that going into next year, you know, 403 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 3: they come in healthier and we don't see them break 404 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,159 Speaker 3: down so quick. That's really my biggest takeaway from this 405 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:26,200 Speaker 3: weird twenty twenty twenty twenty one season. So I think 406 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 3: it's going to be way more fun if we see 407 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 3: our stars like Lebron and Curry and Klay Thompson back. 408 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 3: The Warriors are going to be good, the Nets are 409 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 3: going to be great. You know, the Lakers are going 410 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:38,399 Speaker 3: to be in there, The Sons are going to be 411 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:40,399 Speaker 3: back with this crew for the most part. 412 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 2: So it's going to be very, very exciting next year. 413 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,640 Speaker 3: And it's it's way more wide open than it has 414 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 3: been I think. 415 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 1: All Right, So sons and six is that where we're 416 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 1: going here? 417 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,119 Speaker 2: Bossing Sons and six? Yeah, I know I should. 418 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 3: I should say sons and four because the Sons and 419 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 3: four guy, But I'm taking Sons and. 420 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,159 Speaker 1: Sons and four guy was certainly a character, that's for sure. 421 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 1: But I'll tell you why. What a profit he would 422 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:05,679 Speaker 1: be if that ended up becoming the sweep, and what 423 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:08,400 Speaker 1: a lot of money one can only imagine that guy 424 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: is making the Suns and four wager one can only 425 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 1: hope that he's doing that. He's gotta stay on brand, 426 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,399 Speaker 1: after all, pog and that's what you do now. Scott 427 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:17,639 Speaker 1: Bogmin's always on brand. You can follow him on Twitter 428 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,960 Speaker 1: machine at Bogmin Sports, and again check out in this 429 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 1: League dot com and you can join that Patreon itl Army. 430 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 1: They got great content over there, covering all the sports 431 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 1: and everything in between and very entertaining at that. Plus 432 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,159 Speaker 1: you could also check out all the work they do 433 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 1: for sportscrid. Also, Bogs, thanks so much for hanging out 434 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 1: with us for a little while talking about NBA Finals. 435 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 1: We hope everybody enjoys the clothes to the NBA season 436 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 1: and hopefully we may we'll get some Giannis in there, 437 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:45,920 Speaker 1: and that would be nice to see because it would 438 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,200 Speaker 1: be a good story. And God knows, I'm a sucker 439 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:50,000 Speaker 1: for a good story. So let's hope that he's healthy 440 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 1: enough to make an appearance or two at least and 441 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 1: make things interesting. Other than that, suns and six feels 442 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 1: about right to us here, so that'll do it for us. 443 00:19:58,119 --> 00:19:59,919 Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Bogmin. 444 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 1: I'm Joey p We'll see you next time. Kids,