1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,480 Speaker 1: Russian forces have recently claimed control of Lahansk, the northern 2 00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:06,520 Speaker 1: province of the region. The fighting there this as Ukrainian 3 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: forces try to fend off Russia as it looks to 4 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: take the rest of the don Basque key. Ukrainian held 5 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: cities in the region coming under attack in Sloviansk Russian 6 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: missiles destroying a local market in the city of Kramators 7 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: facing intense shedding as Russian forces move in on Donetsk 8 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: Donetsk Basin that's the area shortened to be the don 9 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:29,480 Speaker 1: Bass as was just mentioned there, the eastern industrial region 10 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: in which Russia is seeking control of because it has 11 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: got all kinds of strategic value and the Russians are succeeding. 12 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: The governor of the net Donetsk region has urged all 13 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty thousand civilians to evacuate as the 14 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 1: Russians have gotten so close and are just pounding all 15 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: these different towns with their long range missiles that the 16 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: Ukrainians at least as of yet can't match. Um. It's 17 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 1: troubling situation. The world attention is not on this the 18 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 1: way it was early on, and I'm concerned for that reason. Also, 19 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 1: we've talked to Dr Jeff McCaslin many times over the years. 20 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 1: He's a CBS News Military consultant, founder and CEO of 21 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:13,399 Speaker 1: Diamond six Leadership and Strategy, Senior Fellow at the Stockdale 22 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: Center for Ethical Leadership at the Naval Academy. UM retired 23 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: in two thousand two, culminating his careers Dean of Academics, 24 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 1: United States Army War College, Dr. Jeff mcoslin. Welcome to 25 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: the Armstrong ing Getty Show today, Shack. It's great with you. 26 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: Is it as dire as I just explained it? Well, 27 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,039 Speaker 1: it's fairly done. There's are two wris about it. There's 28 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 1: Ukrainians have suffered enormous setback with the loss of Savero 29 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 1: Donets can lose the chance, which were the last two 30 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 1: major cities in del Hans Province. As you're right the 31 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 1: point out there, Russians are redeubling their efforts now to 32 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 1: take the Donets province. Those two provinces comprised the don 33 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 1: Box and they're doing in that steady fashion again you 34 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: described of heavy missile and artillery attacks and basically polarizing colleges, 35 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: towns and then moving slowly forward. And I think we're 36 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 1: gonna see them repeat that as they move on to 37 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 1: new donets. That being said, we have seen the Ukrainians 38 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 1: have some success down to the south. They have moved 39 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 1: closer to the city of Hasan and potentially could threaten 40 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 1: to reclaim that from from Russia. And we're trying to 41 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 1: see I think some of the effects of the arrival 42 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: of more modern military equipment from the United States and 43 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 1: Western European lives, including more one five five mim houtzers 44 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:29,799 Speaker 1: and a lot more accurate artillery ammunition and the new 45 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: him Ours long range rocket system which can put around 46 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 1: out it four R fifty miles. In the last couple 47 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: of days we've seen long range strikes five Ukrainians against 48 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 1: the Russian air base and a Russian AMMO jump, which 49 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:45,119 Speaker 1: from the way it looks to me, those likely were 50 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 1: high mar strikes. But at the moment at least, there's 51 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 1: no question the Russians outgun the Ukrainians, particularly in artillery, 52 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 1: and this has devolved into being an artillery ward at 53 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: least for the type being man, which is straight out 54 00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 1: of what the nineteen thirties. I mean, it's the old timey, 55 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: isn't it. It's pretty old time for us. This is 56 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 1: sort of World War two type, but the Russians Soviet 57 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 1: Union had always emphasized heavy and mass fires as part 58 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: of the military doctor and the tet and you go 59 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 1: back in the late nineteen nineties, this to me looks 60 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:18,239 Speaker 1: more like the Russian military operation in chechen Ya when 61 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: a time unknown guy rose up to become prime Minister 62 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 1: of Russia. His name was Vladimir Putin, and he decided 63 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: he was going to re extrit com Russian control over 64 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: chechen Yah, which had managed to break away, but the 65 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 1: Russians did and checking the small province only a couple 66 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: of million people, it's pretty much what they're doing here, 67 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: and that has just pound these villages and towns in 68 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 1: the submission basically seek to break the willpower of the population, 69 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: drive people out in terms of being refuge key flows, 70 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 1: which then makes the your rear areas more secure number one, 71 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: and perhaps cause those refugees to be a problem for 72 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 1: your opponent. And this is exactly what they're doing. So 73 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: anybody who thinks that Russian artillery strikes against department buildings, 74 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 1: hospital his maternity wards and railway stations these are some 75 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: kind of airs or the efforts of marauding units is wrong. 76 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: This is actually Russian military doctrine and policy. They are 77 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: aiming at the civilian it's their doctrine and policy, and 78 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 1: they have been successful in the passes you're just explaining. 79 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 1: And that took a long time, right, that took years, 80 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 1: which is one of the troubling aspects of this. Putin 81 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:25,599 Speaker 1: did not get deterred by that brief flash in the 82 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: early weeks and months of success of the Ukrainians and 83 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 1: the world getting so excited. He was in it for 84 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:34,559 Speaker 1: the long haul. Yeah. I always say that Mr. Putin 85 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: pushed all his poker chips at the center of the table, 86 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: and there's not really a retirement home for old dictators, 87 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 1: so he can hardly go back to go back to 88 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 1: the Russian people and say, gee, whiz, we tried that 89 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 1: and it didn't work. Now he has I think scope 90 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,720 Speaker 1: down his objectives, his objectives of the honest that I 91 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: think we're to take out the Ukraine, or at least 92 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 1: take out the Ukrainian government. And that's why they had 93 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: this multi pronged offensive at the beginning, focused on Key 94 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 1: Harkey down the Dawn Boss, as well as the coast 95 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:03,479 Speaker 1: of the Sea of oslov and the Black Sea. They've 96 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: had to scope that down dramatically. Their efforts to take 97 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: Harcieve and Keep failed. The effort to take the entirety 98 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 1: of the Black Sea closed coast all the way to 99 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:14,040 Speaker 1: Odeth has so far have failed as well. So they've 100 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:17,159 Speaker 1: concentrated their efforts on this don Boss reason now whether 101 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 1: or not after if they are in fact successful and 102 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: the only control about half of the don Es province. 103 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 1: So if they are in fact successful in the coming 104 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:28,840 Speaker 1: weeks and capturing that mighty declare a ceasefire and try 105 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:30,919 Speaker 1: to get the world community to kind of forget about 106 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: this as we kind of did when he occupied Crimea 107 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 1: back in two thousand and fourteen. Is certainly a possibility, right. Um, 108 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 1: I've got no military background, so I'm just like a 109 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: regular person watching this on the news. I still watch 110 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 1: it every day, and the heartbreaking stories out of these towns. 111 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: I mean, not only are they just being pounded, just 112 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: regular people living their lives in regular towns that look 113 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 1: like wherever you live, just getting pounded indiscriminately, um, which 114 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:00,600 Speaker 1: is the strategy, as you just explain. And then when 115 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: the Russians roll into town, really really bad things happen. 116 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 1: Really bad things happen They don't just establish law and order, 117 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 1: they rate pillage plunder. It's it's terrible. Why don't the 118 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:14,599 Speaker 1: Ukrainians already have the equipment they need to stop this 119 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 1: from happening. What's going on there? Well, first of all, 120 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 1: it's difficult to transfer a lot of sophisticated weaponry and 121 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: have it integrated into their forces quickly. A lot of 122 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: the use of him mars, these long range rocket systems 123 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: require the ability to operate the weapon, to do the targeting, 124 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: to also pass the information. How do you link that 125 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,799 Speaker 1: up in a system with drones that acquire a target, 126 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 1: get accurate coordinates or guide guide weapons on the target. 127 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:39,799 Speaker 1: How do you compute firing data? How do you prioritize targeting? 128 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,280 Speaker 1: That's a system, and it takes a while to educate 129 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: somebody on a system. I can train you on how 130 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: to fire a javelin or how to fire a stinger, 131 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 1: which is a direct fire weapons system, probably in a 132 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 1: couple of days when all the Ukrainians using those too 133 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: good effect in the early days this war. Now we're 134 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 1: talking about miss more complex systems to take a longer 135 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: period of time. Secondly, I don't think that we provide 136 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 1: Ukrainians sufficient military forces really to do a counter offensive. 137 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 1: Part of that is our concern for them being able 138 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 1: to absorb it. Part of that is are concerned that 139 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 1: you could lead to escalation. And part of that, I 140 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 1: think it's probably a concern of just how much military 141 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: hardware can we transfer before we've started dipping down in 142 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 1: the US and other NATO allies wartime stocks ourselves. It's 143 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 1: not that much surplus military hardware is out there. Hey, 144 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 1: I just I want to jump in here because we're 145 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: down to like forty five seconds. And I wonder your 146 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: opinion on this. I asked everybody, how worried do you 147 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 1: get about it escalating into World War three? Are we 148 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 1: being too cautious? I worry about it a great deal. 149 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 1: I mean, I think we're in the greatest possible nuclear 150 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 1: confrontation since November of two or October sixty two and 151 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: the q missile crisis. We could have, you know, an 152 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 1: aircraft fly across the border and get shot down, a 153 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 1: missile hit Lithuania, two ships collide to night, and you 154 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: can see a real dramatic escalation in the confrontation between 155 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 1: the United States, NATO Versuster Russians. And I think it's 156 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 1: something We just cannot take our eye off Armstrong and 157 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: Getty