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Speaker 2: So I was in London once for Thanksgiving, really, which
Speaker 2: is sort of strange. Yes, the Kensington in South Kensington.
Speaker 2: They're doing the full American thing here, plus a bourbon
Speaker 2: tasting in.
Speaker 3: The k bar that sounds, and then you know, if.
Speaker 2: You don't want to do that, you go to Chutney
Speaker 2: Mary over at Saint James, yep, where I love this,
Speaker 2: the Blueberry Cosmopolitan, the spiced Old Flat Fashion and Kerala
Speaker 2: roast duck or Lamb Curry. Joining us on this leave
Speaker 2: of Thanksgiving from London. Semashad joins us this morning. Is
Speaker 2: there like a Thanksgiving in London? I mean, is it
Speaker 2: like a happening thing?
Speaker 4: Good?
Speaker 5: Good morning Tom. It's becoming a thing.
Speaker 6: So I remember ten years ago it wasn't, but certainly
Speaker 6: now I think everyone wants to celebrate every single American holiday.
Speaker 4: Can I ask why?
Speaker 7: Why?
Speaker 5: I think any looks to joy?
Speaker 2: All Right?
Speaker 4: We woke up here.
Speaker 3: You know, a few weeks ago we had a new
Speaker 3: administration coming in, a new president elected, We've got a
Speaker 3: Republican Congress seemingly pretty well in place.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 3: Did that change the way you over in London and
Speaker 3: the principal global investors looked at the market broadly?
Speaker 5: Actually, it didn't. And I think this is not so
Speaker 5: surprising in a way that it.
Speaker 6: Didn't, because what we were thinking ahead of the election,
Speaker 6: and typically what you see through history is that it
Speaker 6: doesn't really change the narrative too much. But specifically in
Speaker 6: this election, what you did see it reinforced a narrative
Speaker 6: that was already in play in that use exceptionalism. And
Speaker 6: I think the news that we've had since the election
Speaker 6: results were announced it has simply exaggerated and exacerbated that
Speaker 6: idea of use exceptionalism, where the rest of the world
Speaker 6: starts to struggle that the US really does prosper seem.
Speaker 4: Are we creating a wall of worry?
Speaker 2: The cardon rule is you don't go up unless there's
Speaker 2: a lot to worry about. It seems like there's a
Speaker 2: lot to worry about transition and politics and even in
Speaker 2: the investment world as well. Do you see a healthy
Speaker 2: wall of worry that can drive us higher.
Speaker 6: I mean, I think that there are certainly worries I
Speaker 6: think there's a lot of reassurances there as well. Though,
Speaker 6: you know, if I think about fundamentals, which is really
Speaker 6: what's going to drive the market at least going into
Speaker 6: twenty twenty five, we know that the economy is looking
Speaker 6: really really sturdy and its growth is strong. The worries
Speaker 6: that are out there also do have the potential to
Speaker 6: hit some of the fundamentals. So the tariffs could of
Speaker 6: course have an impact, but really primarily on the other countries,
Speaker 6: not so much from the US.
Speaker 5: And then the other thing that we need to watch for,
Speaker 5: which does have a thin I.
Speaker 6: Think a considerable risk ahead for risk houses is going
Speaker 6: to be what happens to inflation, and of course that
Speaker 6: is also related back into this policy proposal.
Speaker 4: Paul Age thirty.
Speaker 2: The second look, it's September thirty ending GDP survey on
Speaker 2: two point eight percent. Looking for that one more time
Speaker 2: here two point.
Speaker 3: Eight percent exactly that I'm becoming an eight thirty time Simah,
Speaker 3: what do you think this US Federal Reserve is going
Speaker 3: to do in December and heading into twenty twenty five?
Speaker 3: Because boy, the economic data coming out of the US
Speaker 3: seems you know, I guess, pretty starn solid.
Speaker 5: Absolutely. I think that they have been surprised.
Speaker 6: I clearly when they cut by fifty basis points in September,
Speaker 6: they were not expecting the economy to be this strong,
Speaker 6: Otherwise they wouldn't have gone in such a magnitude. We
Speaker 6: are expecting that to be another cut in December, though,
Speaker 6: and that is the idea that they just want to
Speaker 6: kind of very gradually move.
Speaker 5: Towards a less restrictive perspective.
Speaker 6: I think there are a couple of risks in the economy,
Speaker 6: mainly around the low income consumers and some niggles around
Speaker 6: the small businesses which could start to get worse if
Speaker 6: they don't get some assistance. But come January, you know,
Speaker 6: because of the over strength of the economy, over strength
Speaker 6: of the labor market, plus the potential risk of upside.
Speaker 5: Inflation moves next year.
Speaker 6: To me, that says that they need to tread a
Speaker 6: little bit more cautiously. So I think come January they
Speaker 6: moved to a more gradual pace, so that means moving
Speaker 6: every other meeting, and there is certainly a potential for
Speaker 6: a higher flaw than what markets in the FED.
Speaker 5: We're expecting just a couple of months ago.
Speaker 2: Seem Shaw I ninety five. You're popping from Boston down
Speaker 2: to New York today. Drive from Hell, New York up
Speaker 2: to Boston. Further, drive from Hell halfway up. Just pass Gritton.
Speaker 2: You know where the submarines are part Yeah, just pass
Speaker 2: GrITT and Seema Shaw. There's the argument over the four
Speaker 2: to oh one. Ke, dear, what are we going to
Speaker 2: do with our underperforming dog? What do you do to
Speaker 2: reallocate a dog retirement plan?
Speaker 4: In America?
Speaker 6: God, it's such a good question. I think that that
Speaker 6: is such a headache for so many people. What do
Speaker 6: you do with your retirement plan? Especially at these kind
Speaker 6: of valuations. So from our perspective, beget and really think
Speaker 6: about the fundamentals.
Speaker 5: Markets are expensive, but there is still some.
Speaker 6: Opportunity ahead when you start to think about earnings, when
Speaker 6: you think about the growth trajectory. We do need to
Speaker 6: be a little bit careful though, because there are as
Speaker 6: we said, there's risk on the rise, and so it
Speaker 6: really doesn't argue for some kind of diversification like.
Speaker 4: Me, give me, don't give me your time.
Speaker 2: I get your strategist, you're not going to do that,
Speaker 2: But what's the Sema Shaw allocation?
Speaker 4: For the couple just east.
Speaker 2: Of Graten heading up to Boston and there's silence in
Speaker 2: the car, what's the what's the principal allocation?
Speaker 5: So we're thinking mainly on US equities.
Speaker 6: From an equity perspective, you're looking globally that you want
Speaker 6: to have some exposure to some other markets like India
Speaker 6: and Japan. We would be staying fairly clear of Europe
Speaker 6: and China for the time being. Then from a fixed
Speaker 6: income perspective, I know fixing income is a little bit
Speaker 6: of a harder story at the moment because, as it is,
Speaker 6: money market funds are delivering so much. But we do
Speaker 6: think that there's an opportunity to extend your duration a
Speaker 6: little bit, start to think about investment grade, even high
Speaker 6: yield because the backdrop is quite strong.
Speaker 5: So there are opportunities.
Speaker 6: And then the other thing is, and this is really important,
Speaker 6: is that there has to be some kind of exposure
Speaker 6: to real assets. As I said before, the risk on
Speaker 6: the horizon is really around inflation. You want to have
Speaker 6: some kind of inflation protection in your portfolios. So whether
Speaker 6: that's real estate, commodities, there has to be some kind
Speaker 6: of resilience within the portfolio as well.
Speaker 2: See m Kevin on YouTube Live chat says tell Seman
Speaker 2: to go to the JP Morgan Thanksgiving lunch.
Speaker 8: Oh in London, Sally.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 2: I was talking with their booking team and I said, look,
Speaker 2: we got to get Bremer in Ian Bremer and Eurasia group,
Speaker 2: of course with their ten top ten risks for twenty
Speaker 2: twenty five. They're putting that together right now, but really
Speaker 2: we wanted to get an ample, commercial free conversation with
Speaker 2: doctor Bremer, and we do that this morning. It's our
Speaker 2: gift to you across this nation. I I go back
Speaker 2: to your books, and I know you put one of
Speaker 2: your older books out on social media the other day
Speaker 2: of the tumult of twenty twenty four, the news that
Speaker 2: we saw overnight of some solution north of Tel Aviv
Speaker 2: into Lebanon. Can that be the first calming influence into
Speaker 2: two thousand and twenty five.
Speaker 7: I think near term we are.
Speaker 9: Going to see some calming influences in the sense that
Speaker 9: Trump wants to end wars and he's prepared to use
Speaker 9: a significant amount of US political pressure and military pressure.
Speaker 7: To get those outcomes. There's no question in my mind
Speaker 7: that a ceasefire with Hesbelah was related to the election.
Speaker 7: In part, it was delayed because the Israeli Prime Minister
Speaker 7: didn't want to give Biden Harris a win. In part
Speaker 7: it came quickly because they recognize that continuing to fight
Speaker 7: that war when Trump is in power is something that
Speaker 7: they were going to feel pressure over and they wanted
Speaker 7: to avoid it. And next, of course is going to
Speaker 7: be Russia Ukraine, and I'm sure you're gonna want to
Speaker 7: talk about that.
Speaker 4: Oh, we had lots to talk about in this ample time,
Speaker 4: and we really treasure it.
Speaker 2: How will shuttle diplomacy of Secretary Rubio will be different
Speaker 2: than Secretary Blincoln.
Speaker 7: It'll be less frequent. Rubio's top priority from an experienced perspective,
Speaker 7: and also in terms of the lane that he gets
Speaker 7: to occupy by himself, will be Latin America. It'll be Cuba,
Speaker 7: it'll be Venezuela, it'll be Mexico. More broadly, the region,
Speaker 7: and you know, I think he'll be credible there. And
Speaker 7: by the way, I think he'll probably also appoint bipartisan
Speaker 7: congressional delegations Senate delegations and send them to some of
Speaker 7: these countries and others, which is something that has hadn't
Speaker 7: gone as quickly as I would have liked under Biden.
Speaker 7: But on the Middle East, this, I mean, we're following
Speaker 7: what has been the most pro Israel government in the world,
Speaker 7: the Biden administration, with what will be an even more
Speaker 7: pro Israel government under Trump, by far, the most pro
Speaker 7: Israel government in US history, and that is that clearly
Speaker 7: is going to have an impact on Israeli settlements and
Speaker 7: annexation in the West Bank, It'll have an impact on
Speaker 7: the future of Gaza, and it will continue to put
Speaker 7: a hell of a lot of pressure on Iran. So
Speaker 7: I wouldn't look to Rubio to be the person that's
Speaker 7: going to lead that diplomatically, if simply because Trump's best
Speaker 7: relations in the world. And you'll remember Tom the first
Speaker 7: trip he took as president in twenty seventeen was to
Speaker 7: Saudi Arabia and then to Israel, very unusually for a
Speaker 7: US president. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the first
Speaker 7: trip he makes this time around is all sorts of
Speaker 7: the Middle East.
Speaker 3: So I does this ceasefire agreement with Hesbolah does that
Speaker 3: vode well for potential ceasefire with Hamas? What are the
Speaker 3: relations of any I.
Speaker 7: Don't think it matters much. I mean, it certainly puts
Speaker 7: Hamas under even more pressure, but it's hard to put
Speaker 7: Hamas under more pressure than they're already on. I mean,
Speaker 7: the Israeli Prime Minister said yesterday, well, now they know
Speaker 7: they're not going to get a support from Hesbelah. Support
Speaker 7: from hes Bolah hasn't stopped Hamas's tunnels from all getting
Speaker 7: blown up, their arms, cachets from getting blown up, their
Speaker 7: leaders from getting blown up, their fighters from getting blown up.
Speaker 7: I mean, frankly, the Israelis are running out of targets
Speaker 7: in Gaza at this point. So, I mean, the war
Speaker 7: has been winding down. The only reason it's not over
Speaker 7: is because there are still hostages that are being held
Speaker 7: by Hamas, and of course we don't know how many
Speaker 7: of them are still left alive. But I mean it's
Speaker 7: not like that. You have far fewer people getting killed
Speaker 7: in Gaza today than war six months ago, nine months ago,
Speaker 7: and the reason for that is because it's just not
Speaker 7: that much more for Israel to hit that is a
Speaker 7: productive Hamas target. So I think it I don't think
Speaker 7: it does matter all that much. I think where the
Speaker 7: hes Blah ceasefire matters is it is you know, it's
Speaker 7: clearly welcome for Iran because it is a ceasefire that
Speaker 7: does not aim to end Hesbelah's capabilities. Israel is basically
Speaker 7: saying that they are not prepared to blow up every
Speaker 7: single Hesbela member to end their military capabilities, and of
Speaker 7: course this is Iran's top proxy in the world and
Speaker 7: it's their principal deterrent against Israel. Well, Israel's prepared to
Speaker 7: allow them to continue to exist despite their military escalation dominance.
Speaker 7: So that's where I think it matters. Gaza not so much.
Speaker 3: I were speaking with Ian Bremmer, president of Eurrasier Group,
Speaker 3: getting a reset on global geopolitics. A lot happening in
Speaker 3: the Middle East and Ukraine. Ian, what is the position
Speaker 3: of Prime Minister Benjamin Etyahu with his people with Israel?
Speaker 3: Is he still as strongly entrenched as he appears to be.
Speaker 7: He's much more strongly entrenched than he has been at
Speaker 7: any point in the last year. You'll remember, before the
Speaker 7: October seventh terrorist attacks, there's a lot of Israel in
Speaker 7: the news because of massive demonstrations against Nat Yahoo's government
Speaker 7: for his efforts to get out from underneath his own
Speaker 7: legal problems and try to control what is a very
Speaker 7: independent judy. Then his popularity erode even further because he
Speaker 7: was seen as responsible for allowing October seventh to happen
Speaker 7: on his watch. Well, it's a very different situation now.
Speaker 7: It is military successes against Hamas, political and military leaders
Speaker 7: both assassinated under Nan Yahoo. It is Lebanon and has
Speaker 7: bellowed vastly more powerful than Hamas being completely defanged by
Speaker 7: his war of choice in Lebanon. I mean these are
Speaker 7: military victories. The cease fire comes with success political and
Speaker 7: military success by the Israelis. So I think that if
Speaker 7: there were an election in Israel today, obviously it would
Speaker 7: still be a coalition government because the political party system
Speaker 7: is so fragmented. But I think Not Yahoo would have
Speaker 7: a relatively easy time in putting a coalition together.
Speaker 2: Our Thanksgiving treat to you, Ian Bremmer with us for
Speaker 2: this entire half hour or commercial free nationwide. Good morning
Speaker 2: on YouTube around the world. It's our new digital distribution.
Speaker 2: Doctor Bremer, you came out of the housing projects in Chelsea, Massachusetts.
Speaker 2: You took a PhD at Stanford. I think of the
Speaker 2: vicinity of twenty four years old, the dissertation the Politics
Speaker 2: of Ethnicity Russians in the Ukraine. I mean talk about
Speaker 2: getting out front of the topic of.
Speaker 4: The day Ian.
Speaker 2: What drew you to the Russians in the Ukraine at
Speaker 2: the ripe old age of twenty four.
Speaker 7: Well, I mean the Soviet Union collapsing. Suddenly fifteen countries
Speaker 7: became independent and there were lots of Russians in those countries.
Speaker 7: You'll remember back then, one of the people that we
Speaker 7: talked about the most. This was after Frank Fukuyama End
Speaker 7: of History. It was Samuel Huntington Clash of civilizations, And
Speaker 7: what was a very popular theory was that what was
Speaker 7: going to replace the Cold War was going to be
Speaker 7: civilization clash, and it was gonna be Muslims versus Christians,
Speaker 7: not Muslims versus Muslims, Muslims versus Christians, all these civilizational clashes.
Speaker 7: And what I saw happening in the Soviet Union was
Speaker 7: that one of the places that seemed to be the
Speaker 7: most problematic, and that was likely to cause the most
Speaker 7: long term conflict. Was not Russians versus Muslim Kazakhs or
Speaker 7: Azaris or Uzbek's. It was Russians versus culturally identical Ukrainians.
Speaker 7: Similar language, similar religion, similar history, similar land. But you know,
Speaker 7: I was traveling in Crimea and I was meeting these
Speaker 7: Russians that are like, no, this is our land. This
Speaker 7: has nothing to do with Ukraine and southeast Ukraine where
Speaker 7: it was heavily contested, and then places like Kiev and
Speaker 7: Leviv in the west. And I mean these were European
Speaker 7: Ukrainians who felt European, who were closer to Poland's and
Speaker 7: we want nothing to do. We want independent country. Even
Speaker 7: though there was intermarriage at that point, even though a
Speaker 7: lot of people in Kiev didn't necessarily know, you know,
Speaker 7: who was Ukrainian and who was Russian on the street,
Speaker 7: but around the country people certainly did so. Thirty years ago,
Speaker 7: it was very clear that this was going to be
Speaker 7: a serious long term problem. And of course, starting in
Speaker 7: twenty fourteen and now again today, this turns out to
Speaker 7: be one of them had pivots.
Speaker 2: Let's get out let's get out funny into your top
Speaker 2: ten risks for twenty twenty five. We have a some
Speaker 2: form of Chicago Tribune isolationist Middle America President elect.
Speaker 4: He wants to get this fixed in Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Now, what in the zeitgeist right now are we getting
Speaker 2: wrong about Ukraine giving all your academic commitment to it.
Speaker 2: What's going to be the surprise in the next year.
Speaker 7: Well, one is that the last time that President Trump
Speaker 7: ended a war, it was in Afghanistan. He gave away
Speaker 7: the store to the Taliban, but he didn't have to
Speaker 7: do the cleanup that was for Biden. This time around,
Speaker 7: the deal that is cut by Trump, he's going to
Speaker 7: be responsible for for four years. And so I think
Speaker 7: he's aware of that, and I wonder I like, yes,
Speaker 7: he really wants to end the war. He's got a
Speaker 7: lot of capacity to pressure the Ukrainians. But the presumption
Speaker 7: in the media and the zeitgeist, as you say, is
Speaker 7: that Trump is going to give away the store to
Speaker 7: Putin And I don't think that's true. I don't think
Speaker 7: he wants a situation where Ukraine can be completely run
Speaker 7: over and undermined by Russia. I think he's gonna want
Speaker 7: a Ukraine that the war is over, Russia's still in
Speaker 7: the occupied territory they have now there's no way to
Speaker 7: get them out of it. But Ukraine has the ability
Speaker 7: to defend themselves and prevent Russia from taking more territory.
Speaker 7: So that's not an easy deal to get done with Putin.
Speaker 7: And I think if there's a place where Trump is
Speaker 7: going to be more flexible then the Europeans want. Certainly,
Speaker 7: I think it's going to be on the economics side.
Speaker 7: I think Putin really would like to see an end
Speaker 7: to sanctions, and I think Trump is prepared to give
Speaker 7: that to him. It'll be very interesting to see how
Speaker 7: the Europeans respond to that, and do they respond to
Speaker 7: it in a unified way or do they break down.
Speaker 7: That to me is where people are getting it wrong
Speaker 7: in my view.
Speaker 3: Ian what's the role of Zelenski and the Ukrainian people
Speaker 3: in this whole process? Assuming president like Trump wants to
Speaker 3: push a peace movement forward.
Speaker 7: Look, they recognize that they need to end this war.
Speaker 7: They're losing much more territory in the last week than
Speaker 7: they've lost in any week since the beginning of the war,
Speaker 7: and I expect that to continue. The Russians are going
Speaker 7: to press this for the next couple of months until
Speaker 7: Trump becomes president, and the Ukrainian position is likely to
Speaker 7: look a lot worse when inauguration hits than it does
Speaker 7: right now. So I mean, yeah, you've got the permissioning
Speaker 7: to use long range missiles. That doesn't help them strategically
Speaker 7: on the ground. Particularly. That's why Biden dragged his feet
Speaker 7: on it to begin with, because it wasn't gonna matter
Speaker 7: very much. So look, Celenski frankly needs an excuse to
Speaker 7: stop the bleeding, and it is ending. The war is
Speaker 7: more popular now in Ukraine than it was a year ago,
Speaker 7: two years ago, but he can't be seen as losing
Speaker 7: his country. So again, a lot of this has to
Speaker 7: do with what Trump and his team is going to
Speaker 7: come in and say. And you know, the Trump advisory group,
Speaker 7: the Cabinet coming in. Let's leave aside Tulsey Gabbert, who
Speaker 7: is an outlier, but it wouldn't be seen in this
Speaker 7: position as driving the outcome. You know, it is going
Speaker 7: to be pretty hawkish in support of Ukraine. So I
Speaker 7: think there's still a great deal to watch here. I
Speaker 7: don't think it's right. I don't think this is giving
Speaker 7: away the score and undermining Zelenski completely right.
Speaker 2: Ian Bremer with it's just thrilled to have them on
Speaker 2: here for almost a whole half hour, commercial free through
Speaker 2: the economic data churn to the market, the Sweeney yield
Speaker 2: four point two to one percent, the two year yield
Speaker 2: in five basis points. I look at the ten year
Speaker 2: real yield that's in five basis points one point ninety
Speaker 2: seven percent. I want to go back to a book
Speaker 2: I in that you feature the other day US Versus Them,
Speaker 2: the failure of Globalism.
Speaker 4: You steal a.
Speaker 2: Line from Raghu Rajan out at booth you go. The
Speaker 2: fault Lines is one chapter three of US Versus Them?
Speaker 4: Where's the fault line? Right now?
Speaker 2: In our trade policy forward? Lightheiser is not on board,
Speaker 2: but I guess we have a new trade policy. Witnessed
Speaker 2: the news the other day. Where is the unknown fault
Speaker 2: line we need to pay attention to?
Speaker 7: Well, there are two, as you note from Trump's first
Speaker 7: efforts at making paula see as president elect. You've got
Speaker 7: the ally fault line, where he expects, you know, deals,
Speaker 7: and then you've got the adversary fault line where he
Speaker 7: expects deals and and Trump doesn't necessarily treat them as
Speaker 7: all that different. I mean, it was less than an
Speaker 7: hour between him posting that there's going to be new
Speaker 7: tariffs against Mexico and Canada unless they give him satisfaction
Speaker 7: and when he said the same thing about China unless
Speaker 7: the Chinese provides satisfaction. So those are tom Those are
Speaker 7: two very very different fault lines.
Speaker 2: But to me, Paul, this is really important, doctor Bremer.
Speaker 2: To me, what's so simplistic? Heure China US versus them,
Speaker 2: Canada US versus.
Speaker 4: Them, Golden Sex.
Speaker 2: I believe it was in think of Zero Edge had
Speaker 2: a brilliant note out on what about Vietnam? I mean, Ian,
Speaker 2: are we amateur in naive that we don't understand how
Speaker 2: complex this debate is?
Speaker 7: Are we?
Speaker 10: Or?
Speaker 7: Is true?
Speaker 2: I think all of us within our discussion is just
Speaker 2: so easy to be by transactional in to be bipartisan
Speaker 2: where it's still a multilateral world?
Speaker 4: Am I wrong?
Speaker 7: I think it's important to react to the policymakers that
Speaker 7: are driving policy, and Trump is already occupying that role,
Speaker 7: and he chose to go after Canada, Mexico and China,
Speaker 7: and he does not see tariffs through a uniquely economic lens.
Speaker 7: He sees tariffs as the principal tool by which the
Speaker 7: United States gets outcomes that it wants in foreign policy.
Speaker 7: I mean, in his first administration, it is true that
Speaker 7: he used tariffs to try to make America great again
Speaker 7: in places like steel, right, and he also used it
Speaker 7: to try to get the Japanese and South Koreans to
Speaker 7: pay more for their defense the United States. He used
Speaker 7: it in Mexico to talk about immigration. In his post
Speaker 7: the other day, he was talking about fentanyl. And it
Speaker 7: wouldn't surprise me if those posts came right on the
Speaker 7: back of Trump watching some Fox News segment showing how
Speaker 7: horrible fentanyl is in the United States and he's like,
Speaker 7: I got to do something about that. I'm gonna go
Speaker 7: and hit the Mexicans and the Canadians and the Chinese.
Speaker 7: So it's not as if Trump is using tariffs purely
Speaker 7: to redress economic problems, although clearly he does care about
Speaker 7: trade deficits. It's far far broader than that.
Speaker 3: Right now, and it just we're starting to see this
Speaker 3: cabinet kind of shake out here. From your perspective, the
Speaker 3: way you view the world is or anything that kind
Speaker 3: of jumps out of you, either positive or negative.
Speaker 7: Gets jumped out at me as uniquely negative. There were
Speaker 7: a solid seven hard nos among Republican senators to get
Speaker 7: him out. And what I thought was interesting was that
Speaker 7: Trump allowed him to be thrown under the bus immediately,
Speaker 7: didn't put up a fight. It's an amazing thing about
Speaker 7: Trump is that when he decides that he's no longer interested,
Speaker 7: it's gone, it's gone. He doesn't dwell on losses. He like,
Speaker 7: you know, you'll never hear about it again. Right. I
Speaker 7: thought it was also interesting something that didn't happen. Howard Lutnick,
Speaker 7: who Elon Musk, was pushing internally and there were leaks
Speaker 7: against that from Trump's advisors, and then he pushed publicly
Speaker 7: and within forty eight hours Lutnik didn't get Treasury. So
Speaker 7: that was interesting, right. I mean, this is in other words,
Speaker 7: and I haven't seen JD. Vance have much influence at
Speaker 7: all in terms of appointees. So Trump is making these decisions. Gets.
Speaker 7: The Gets decision was made initially without Trump's chief of
Speaker 7: staff even knowing about it, Susie Wiles. So I mean,
Speaker 7: this isn't maybe what you were asking, but I mean
Speaker 7: I'm pointing to a whole bunch of things that didn't
Speaker 7: happen where I think we're getting information. Certainly there are
Speaker 7: still outliers in terms of people that really don't they
Speaker 7: shouldn't be in the positions that they're in. Tulsi's one,
Speaker 7: I mean doctor Oz, for Christ's sake, RFK Junior, Pete Haigseth.
Speaker 7: But but these are not authoritarians. And frankly, these are
Speaker 7: not people who I see as strategically or even structurally corrupt.
Speaker 7: They're just people that are that are fundamentally incompetent and
Speaker 7: unfit for the jobs. And there aren't that many of them.
Speaker 10: Most of the people that he's appointing are people that
Speaker 10: I would consider to be at least marginally capable, and
Speaker 10: some of them, like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio are
Speaker 10: strongly capable.
Speaker 7: So you know, it's at least a B minus your cabinet.
Speaker 4: So far, I need an A plus.
Speaker 2: Ian, I need you to do the twenty top risks
Speaker 2: for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 4: Get to work.
Speaker 2: There seem to be some topers out there. Ian Bremer
Speaker 2: with us, What a great way to start the holiday season.
Speaker 2: Doctor Bremer, of course at Eur Razor Group, can't say
Speaker 2: enough about his books. One out a couple of years ago.
Speaker 2: We got to look for the next book to come
Speaker 2: out as well.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 2: He shows up from Case Capital Management. I guess we
Speaker 2: should talk to Whitney Tilson about private equity, private investment,
Speaker 2: Global Macro, except he's changed the script. Whitney Tilson is
Speaker 2: decided to run for mayors. John Tucker just mentioned it
Speaker 2: is a crowded field as well. He will run as
Speaker 2: a Democrat in this New York City. Whitney, You've climbed
Speaker 2: the Matterhorn. You know it's not K two the East Face,
Speaker 2: but your mister Mountain. I've looked from Zermatt over at
Speaker 2: the Matterhorn and going you've got to be kidnaping. This
Speaker 2: mayor's race is going to be tougher than the matter Horn,
Speaker 2: tougher than anything you crime. You've done. You've climbed. How
Speaker 2: are you going to find a distinctive voice on the
Speaker 2: worry of crime in New York City and quite frankly
Speaker 2: across this nation.
Speaker 8: You know, I am speaking more broadly, just about a
Speaker 8: distinctive voice, not just on crime. But there is no
Speaker 8: business person in the field. In fact, you said it's
Speaker 8: a crowded field, and I don't know. I guess a
Speaker 8: half dozen people sounds crowded. But I'm the only person
Speaker 8: who's not a career politician in the field. So I'm
Speaker 8: a lifelong Democrat, been super active in the party for
Speaker 8: the last twenty years. But ever since Mayor Bloomberg left.
Speaker 8: Look at what's happened to our city in the last
Speaker 8: eleven years with some combination of career politicians de Blasio
Speaker 8: and Adams, the last two mayors, who are some combination
Speaker 8: of corrupt, incompetent, and beholden to the radical left. And
Speaker 8: so I'm concerned about my city. I share the view
Speaker 8: of the majority of New Yorkers that the city's had
Speaker 8: in the wrong direction. I want to turn it around.
Speaker 2: I should mention that former Mayor Bloomberg, of course, is
Speaker 2: part of Bloomberg Lpan drives a ship every morning for
Speaker 2: Bloomberg surveillance in Bloomberg Radio worldwide Whitney Tilson. Mister Bloomberg
Speaker 2: had ample funds to prosecute a campaign. What is the
Speaker 2: initial support you've seen if you don't have the Bloomberg
Speaker 2: checking account.
Speaker 8: Right, Well, every candidate has to decide whether to take
Speaker 8: city matching money or self bund mayor. Bloomberg spent seventy
Speaker 8: three million dollars of his own money to win his
Speaker 8: first race for mayor.
Speaker 7: And then serve two more terms.
Speaker 8: Of course, I, like every other candidate in the race,
Speaker 8: is going to take advantage of an extraordinary matching program.
Speaker 8: But we have to adhere to a seven point nine
Speaker 8: million dollars total spend for the primary, and the same
Speaker 8: for the general whoever wins the primary, seven point nine
Speaker 8: million dollars. And by the way, if we adhere to that,
Speaker 8: all all candidates, if we take up to two hundred
Speaker 8: and fifty dollars for New York City residents, it's matched
Speaker 8: eight to one. So any New York City resident who
Speaker 8: gives me two hundred and fifty bucks, my campaign gets
Speaker 8: two thousand on top of that. And so I plan
Speaker 8: to take full advantage of that and try and raise
Speaker 8: as much money from New York City residents.
Speaker 2: And what's great about that, Paul Sweeney is John Tucker's
Speaker 2: congestion tax payment each day will be two hundred and
Speaker 2: fifty dollars. Away's crossing across sixtieth Street.
Speaker 3: All right, Whitney, let's go to that. What's your view
Speaker 3: on congestion pricing, because that's become a political football.
Speaker 8: I know, I'm all in favor of it. I think
Speaker 8: we should be doing the opposite of what this country
Speaker 8: has been doing for the last you know, fifty years,
Speaker 8: which is subsidizing driving and charging for public transportation. We
Speaker 8: should be doing the reverse. You know, I've traveled the
Speaker 8: world and I've been to Singapore and there is there
Speaker 8: is not a single bit of traffic to any kind
Speaker 8: of traffic jam in Singapore. Why because they congestion price
Speaker 8: basically the whole city, and anytime there's rush hour traffic
Speaker 8: down a particular street, they just raised the price until
Speaker 8: the traffic is gone. I think people who oppose congestion
Speaker 8: pricing are thinking about the cost of it wrong. It's
Speaker 8: not the nine dollars of the fifteen dollars that's really
Speaker 8: costing people. It's sitting in traffic for an hour, burning
Speaker 8: expensive gas and wasting your time and I want to
Speaker 8: get rid of all of that in New York City.
Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about housing costs. I mean, for
Speaker 3: most New Yorkers, it is a constant challenge. Quite frankly,
Speaker 3: it's been the constant challenge as long as I can remember.
Speaker 3: Is there a solution? Is there a way to reduce
Speaker 3: that burden on average New Yorkers?
Speaker 8: Yes, although there's no magic bullet that's going to immediately
Speaker 8: bring down housing costs. This is built up over a
Speaker 8: long period of time. And it's a classic example of
Speaker 8: what I as a lifelong Democrat and running against, which
Speaker 8: is I'm a sensible center. We need to build more housing.
Speaker 8: Vacancy rate in New York cities down to one point
Speaker 8: four percent. And the problem is is nobody's been able
Speaker 8: to build new housing because of primarily bureaucratic regulations and
Speaker 8: so forth, but also these incredibly onerous zoning rules. The
Speaker 8: radical lefty Nimby types, not in my backyard types, have
Speaker 8: taken a good idea, which is sensible zoning, and taken
Speaker 8: it to an extreme. When you have sort of a
Speaker 8: one party control of the city, often extremists get their agenda.
Speaker 8: Over the years, all these zoning rigs have built up
Speaker 8: so to its credits. The city Council last week finally
Speaker 8: passed a watered down built to slightly ease these zoning issues.
Speaker 8: I'm going to really push hard on that because we
Speaker 8: need a lot more housing and that will bring the
Speaker 8: price down.
Speaker 2: Wennie Tilson, our listeners and viewers nationwide, indeed worldwide when
Speaker 2: they go through JFK visit New York and they notice
Speaker 2: a different and absolutely unique police force. Jessica Tish takes
Speaker 2: over as a new commissioner for Mayor Adams. What will
Speaker 2: the Tilson NYPD look like if you're elected as a
Speaker 2: Democratic mayor?
Speaker 8: Yeah, well, I can boil it down into six words.
Speaker 8: Big picture, Let police do their fricking jobs. That's the
Speaker 8: big picture. And three words of that is the opposite,
Speaker 8: which is deep on the police, which are the three
Speaker 8: dumbest words of all time. So again, that's what the
Speaker 8: radical left has been pushing and handcuffing our police. So
Speaker 8: let me give three bullet points. Number one, prime of
Speaker 8: violent crime in particular is not random. If you look
Speaker 8: at all the one hundred thousand plus city blocks in
Speaker 8: New York, fifty percent of violent crime person only three
Speaker 8: point five percent of those blocks and it's a single
Speaker 8: apartment building or a single block where there's open air
Speaker 8: drug dealing, you know, like in Washington Square Park for example.
Speaker 8: In those areas, the police working with the local community.
Speaker 8: You can't have the police come in as some invading force,
Speaker 8: you know, oppressing local residents. It's the law abiding local
Speaker 8: residents in these areas that are being terrorized by criminals.
Speaker 8: That so you form the zone, you declare a state
Speaker 8: of emergency, and you put more police in, not less,
Speaker 8: working with the communtry. So that would be number one.
Speaker 8: Number two is is we've got to roll back part
Speaker 8: of the sanctuary city legislation that the radical left passed
Speaker 8: under Deblasio that don't allow our local officials when they
Speaker 8: arrest an illegal immigrant committing crimes, they should be on
Speaker 8: the they should be turned off iceon on the next
Speaker 8: flight back to their home country. And that's not happening.
Speaker 4: Okay, Whitney, We've got to leave it there.
Speaker 2: We're out of time, but we look forward to having
Speaker 2: you back on again, as we will many other candidates
Speaker 2: within this New York City mayor race, including Prahaps We'll
Speaker 2: try to get on again. Eric Adams are President Mayor
Speaker 2: mister Kilson running as a democrat in a crowded field
Speaker 2: to say the leaves.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 2: What a joy and honor to have Dana Telsea in
Speaker 2: studio right now here as we slide into the holiday season.
Speaker 2: She lived the fabric of retail New York City. The
Speaker 2: other day, Milan Dana Telsea, I guess is bigger now
Speaker 2: than Fifth Avenue, but there's still Fifth Avenue a dominant
Speaker 2: on Fifth Avenue.
Speaker 4: Lewis Viwton is blowing up the building. What are they
Speaker 4: gonna build?
Speaker 2: What is the Arnault family gonna build at fifty seventh
Speaker 2: Street in Fifth Avenue?
Speaker 11: What's gonna be amazing? And Tom, thank you so much
Speaker 11: for having me today. It's a pleasure to be here.
Speaker 11: Let's talk about and show people what they're doing on
Speaker 11: Fifth Avenue. Trunks that go up seven stories tall as
Speaker 11: they and capture the building so that they tear it
Speaker 11: down and build it up again. It's a seven year build,
Speaker 11: and across the street they have the Louis Vuitton store
Speaker 11: in the former Tiffany Con temporary sell So it's going
Speaker 11: to be what I hear office and it's going to
Speaker 11: be an amazing retail store. When you think about what
Speaker 11: opened in Paris, it feels like that's going to be
Speaker 11: New York. And when you look at what everyone's doing,
Speaker 11: the social media that's going on of everyone taking pictures
Speaker 11: of those trunks, whether tourists or locals, it's absolutely awesome.
Speaker 4: To me.
Speaker 2: The absolute seismic change is Paul I can enjoy for
Speaker 2: twenty four six hundred dollars the Alhambra's secret pendant watch
Speaker 2: night at Van Klief.
Speaker 4: Across the street.
Speaker 3: You know what, you know it well through a firm.
Speaker 2: This to me is ginormous in the luxuries finally getting
Speaker 2: the way Americans shop.
Speaker 11: I think there's some of that. I think some of
Speaker 11: it's unique to Van Cleef. Also, I think some brands
Speaker 11: like Ermez, you're only seeing it walk in and out
Speaker 11: of the store and online where you need that relationship
Speaker 11: with that sales associate. But companies like the Bergdorf, Goodman's
Speaker 11: and other luxury brands they're innovating for today because they
Speaker 11: need the shopper who's going to be there tomorrow.
Speaker 3: Also, all right, so Tom's shopping at Van Cleef and
Speaker 3: got whatever?
Speaker 7: Blah blah.
Speaker 3: What are the rest of us doing? How retail sales
Speaker 3: going to be? How is holiday shopping shaping up this year?
Speaker 11: I think the holiday season is going to be respectable.
Speaker 11: When you think about the increase. Could it be three
Speaker 11: to three and a half percent versus four point six
Speaker 11: percent last year? You couple have a couple of ticks
Speaker 11: and ties, a compressed holiday season, five fewer days. I
Speaker 11: don't know about you, but whether it's my text or
Speaker 11: my emails, I'm getting discounts school more of what the
Speaker 11: promotions are going to be. So it will be more
Speaker 11: promotional this year than last year. And you know, experiences
Speaker 11: still matter. You look at people now going out to
Speaker 11: dinner Triloka Travel, which has shown huge increases. It's important
Speaker 11: to say the wow factor and what else is going
Speaker 11: to work? Whether it's the closed toad shoes at Birkenstock,
Speaker 11: whether it's the value of the off pricers GJX and Walmart.
Speaker 11: Look where Walmart's biggest games are coming from. Some of
Speaker 11: their higher income consumers.
Speaker 3: How do the retailers have what they need on the
Speaker 3: on the shelves.
Speaker 7: Are they fully stopped? Are they ready to go?
Speaker 11: I think they're ready to go. I think they've been
Speaker 11: ready to go. Definitely, tariffs, when you think about the future,
Speaker 11: that's an impact. Everyone's tried to diversify their exposure to China,
Speaker 11: but look, it's coming on other places now too. At
Speaker 11: the end of the day, whatever these tariffs will be,
Speaker 11: there's only so much retailers can absorb themselves, and that
Speaker 11: will be a headwind for consumers if prices move up.
Speaker 2: Joseph I Feldman has killed it on Walmart along to
Speaker 2: see's not alone but.
Speaker 4: Mere mortals like me. Dana look at Walmart with the
Speaker 4: thirty five multiple and go.
Speaker 2: I didn't learn this from Dana Telsey at bear Stearns
Speaker 2: a million years ago. How do you justify the price
Speaker 2: to earnings, price to cash flow, price to sales ratio
Speaker 2: of revenue growers per year?
Speaker 11: One of the things that you have to look at
Speaker 11: when going back to my Ron Barren days, who is
Speaker 11: my mentor who I learned from? The competitive mode that
Speaker 11: a business develops gives them the opportunity to scale. Look
Speaker 11: what Walmart is doing. Walmart today is not the Walmart
Speaker 11: of yesterday. You look at their other revenues from other
Speaker 11: business lines that are growing extensively. Look at their sixty
Speaker 11: percent of sales that are coming from essentials, and frankly,
Speaker 11: look what they're doing with both the digital channel and
Speaker 11: the physical channel, coupled with what they've got globally. So
Speaker 11: what Don McMillan has done has moved the business forward,
Speaker 11: and that competitive mode is only getting stronger.
Speaker 3: What is the e commerce versus in store ratio these days?
Speaker 3: I mean, I know that the pandemic kind of pulled
Speaker 3: a lot of that market share towards e commerce. Are
Speaker 3: we reset it to normal here?
Speaker 11: I think overall? You look what Norstrom reported yesterday, around
Speaker 11: thirty four percent of their sales came from e commerce.
Speaker 11: You still have faster growth than e commerce because it's
Speaker 11: smaller than what you have in physical But one of
Speaker 11: the things that's happened, the pandemic allowed the physical channel
Speaker 11: to reset, and it allowed the physical channel to reset
Speaker 11: because they closed stores and now they're investing in their stores.
Speaker 11: Look at the new flagships that are opening here in
Speaker 11: New York. Aritzia is one of the stores I'm going
Speaker 11: to tomorrow because they just open their next.
Speaker 3: Door and so hoo oh, would you like to step
Speaker 3: in your at least you can tag along with in
Speaker 3: the closed toe Birkenstocks.
Speaker 11: We are set exactly. You're gonna buy your puffer at
Speaker 11: Aritzia and we're your closed toe Birkenstocks.
Speaker 2: What's your single best idea? I mean, the charm of
Speaker 2: Dana Telsea is the chat on women's boots, but also
Speaker 2: we got to make money. Do you make money with
Speaker 2: a value trap now that's finally going to turn around
Speaker 2: and move or do you go on board something that's
Speaker 2: already moving.
Speaker 4: What's your single best idea?
Speaker 11: I want to go what's moving and working. I want
Speaker 11: to look at Ralph Lauren. I want to look at Birkenstock.
Speaker 11: I want to keep going with TJX. That's where I
Speaker 11: think some of the winners are.
Speaker 2: Min and a half bull amount of time on Bloomberg surveillance.
Speaker 2: How does Dana Telsey turn around the train wreck that
Speaker 2: is Doc Martin's a.
Speaker 11: Lot of work to do. It all comes to product.
Speaker 11: What are they going to put out that's going to
Speaker 11: capture the awareness of the consumer that goes on social
Speaker 11: media in order to drive interest. They're not there yet.
Speaker 11: And Birkenstock is you know.
Speaker 3: Where she got some of her training back in the day.
Speaker 2: C J.
Speaker 3: Lawrence again going to our theory, Tom and I have
Speaker 3: him a by c J. Lawrence.
Speaker 7: Some of the best research channalysts for.
Speaker 3: Decades came out of the shop.
Speaker 1: C J.
Speaker 7: Lawrence. Nobody knows about it.
Speaker 4: You grew up as a child.
Speaker 2: A magical childhood is literally like Eloise at the plaza
Speaker 2: at Bergdorf Goodman.
Speaker 4: Where is Bergdorf Goodman in ten years?
Speaker 11: I think we're still going to have her Bergdorf Goodman today.
Speaker 11: I think the relationships and the partnerships with the designers
Speaker 11: are more important than ever. But you know what else matters? Service?
Speaker 11: I think when I think about twenty twenty five and
Speaker 11: beyond about the letter s, service and social, I think
Speaker 11: service matters to keep the customer there. I think social
Speaker 11: matters because you have to engage whether digitally or physically,
Speaker 11: and really shows the personalization.
Speaker 4: Did you see the new look on Apple TV? The
Speaker 4: magical movie about Door.
Speaker 11: I'm going to go check it out that tomorrow.
Speaker 2: What do you or you should see him over in
Speaker 2: fifthemth they're putting up this light show right now. It's
Speaker 2: like a gajillion dollars in that. What's mister arnaulnu Jacks.
Speaker 2: What does mister Arnauld purchase?
Speaker 11: That'll be very interesting to see what he purchases. You
Speaker 11: heard that giving he purchased a little bit of Montclair
Speaker 11: that Montclair was potentially looking at Burbery. And I would
Speaker 11: have thought mister Arnault would purchase Bergdorf because I think
Speaker 11: that would allow him to have all four corners of
Speaker 11: fifty seventh Street.
Speaker 1: Oh can you?
Speaker 2: She brings the conversation a bar to a complete as out,
Speaker 2: telling Dana Telsey honored to have you in here the
Speaker 2: Wednesday before Thanksgiving. She's that kind of course.
Speaker 4: The Telsey Advisory Group. And it's not just Dana.
Speaker 2: Joe Feldman writing heard as well, Big box all the
Speaker 2: way over to a firm the luxury provider of your choice.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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