1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 1: on Apple car Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,760 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 2: So I was in London once for Thanksgiving, really, which 7 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 2: is sort of strange. Yes, the Kensington in South Kensington. 8 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:37,519 Speaker 2: They're doing the full American thing here, plus a bourbon 9 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 2: tasting in. 10 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 3: The k bar that sounds, and then you know, if. 11 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 2: You don't want to do that, you go to Chutney 12 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 2: Mary over at Saint James, yep, where I love this, 13 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 2: the Blueberry Cosmopolitan, the spiced Old Flat Fashion and Kerala 14 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 2: roast duck or Lamb Curry. Joining us on this leave 15 00:00:55,040 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 2: of Thanksgiving from London. Semashad joins us this morning. Is 16 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 2: there like a Thanksgiving in London? I mean, is it 17 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 2: like a happening thing? 18 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:06,199 Speaker 4: Good? 19 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 5: Good morning Tom. It's becoming a thing. 20 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 6: So I remember ten years ago it wasn't, but certainly 21 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:14,320 Speaker 6: now I think everyone wants to celebrate every single American holiday. 22 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 4: Can I ask why? 23 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 7: Why? 24 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 5: I think any looks to joy? 25 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 2: All Right? 26 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 4: We woke up here. 27 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:26,959 Speaker 3: You know, a few weeks ago we had a new 28 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 3: administration coming in, a new president elected, We've got a 29 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 3: Republican Congress seemingly pretty well in place. 30 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 4: Here. 31 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 3: Did that change the way you over in London and 32 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 3: the principal global investors looked at the market broadly? 33 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 5: Actually, it didn't. And I think this is not so 34 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:46,039 Speaker 5: surprising in a way that it. 35 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 6: Didn't, because what we were thinking ahead of the election, 36 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 6: and typically what you see through history is that it 37 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 6: doesn't really change the narrative too much. But specifically in 38 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 6: this election, what you did see it reinforced a narrative 39 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 6: that was already in play in that use exceptionalism. And 40 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 6: I think the news that we've had since the election 41 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 6: results were announced it has simply exaggerated and exacerbated that 42 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 6: idea of use exceptionalism, where the rest of the world 43 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:14,119 Speaker 6: starts to struggle that the US really does prosper seem. 44 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 4: Are we creating a wall of worry? 45 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 2: The cardon rule is you don't go up unless there's 46 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:20,640 Speaker 2: a lot to worry about. It seems like there's a 47 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 2: lot to worry about transition and politics and even in 48 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,640 Speaker 2: the investment world as well. Do you see a healthy 49 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 2: wall of worry that can drive us higher. 50 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 6: I mean, I think that there are certainly worries I 51 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 6: think there's a lot of reassurances there as well. Though, 52 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 6: you know, if I think about fundamentals, which is really 53 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 6: what's going to drive the market at least going into 54 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,240 Speaker 6: twenty twenty five, we know that the economy is looking 55 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 6: really really sturdy and its growth is strong. The worries 56 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 6: that are out there also do have the potential to 57 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 6: hit some of the fundamentals. So the tariffs could of 58 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 6: course have an impact, but really primarily on the other countries, 59 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 6: not so much from the US. 60 00:02:57,080 --> 00:02:58,640 Speaker 5: And then the other thing that we need to watch for, 61 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:00,080 Speaker 5: which does have a thin I. 62 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 6: Think a considerable risk ahead for risk houses is going 63 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 6: to be what happens to inflation, and of course that 64 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 6: is also related back into this policy proposal. 65 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 4: Paul Age thirty. 66 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 2: The second look, it's September thirty ending GDP survey on 67 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,080 Speaker 2: two point eight percent. Looking for that one more time 68 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:15,920 Speaker 2: here two point. 69 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 3: Eight percent exactly that I'm becoming an eight thirty time Simah, 70 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 3: what do you think this US Federal Reserve is going 71 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 3: to do in December and heading into twenty twenty five? 72 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 3: Because boy, the economic data coming out of the US 73 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 3: seems you know, I guess, pretty starn solid. 74 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 5: Absolutely. I think that they have been surprised. 75 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 6: I clearly when they cut by fifty basis points in September, 76 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 6: they were not expecting the economy to be this strong, 77 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 6: Otherwise they wouldn't have gone in such a magnitude. We 78 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 6: are expecting that to be another cut in December, though, 79 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 6: and that is the idea that they just want to 80 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 6: kind of very gradually move. 81 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 5: Towards a less restrictive perspective. 82 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 6: I think there are a couple of risks in the economy, 83 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 6: mainly around the low income consumers and some niggles around 84 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 6: the small businesses which could start to get worse if 85 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 6: they don't get some assistance. But come January, you know, 86 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 6: because of the over strength of the economy, over strength 87 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 6: of the labor market, plus the potential risk of upside. 88 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 5: Inflation moves next year. 89 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 6: To me, that says that they need to tread a 90 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 6: little bit more cautiously. So I think come January they 91 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 6: moved to a more gradual pace, so that means moving 92 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:21,280 Speaker 6: every other meeting, and there is certainly a potential for 93 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 6: a higher flaw than what markets in the FED. 94 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 5: We're expecting just a couple of months ago. 95 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 2: Seem Shaw I ninety five. You're popping from Boston down 96 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 2: to New York today. Drive from Hell, New York up 97 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 2: to Boston. Further, drive from Hell halfway up. Just pass Gritton. 98 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 2: You know where the submarines are part Yeah, just pass 99 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 2: GrITT and Seema Shaw. There's the argument over the four 100 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 2: to oh one. Ke, dear, what are we going to 101 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 2: do with our underperforming dog? What do you do to 102 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:47,840 Speaker 2: reallocate a dog retirement plan? 103 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 4: In America? 104 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 6: God, it's such a good question. I think that that 105 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 6: is such a headache for so many people. What do 106 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 6: you do with your retirement plan? Especially at these kind 107 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 6: of valuations. So from our perspective, beget and really think 108 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 6: about the fundamentals. 109 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 5: Markets are expensive, but there is still some. 110 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 6: Opportunity ahead when you start to think about earnings, when 111 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 6: you think about the growth trajectory. We do need to 112 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,480 Speaker 6: be a little bit careful though, because there are as 113 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 6: we said, there's risk on the rise, and so it 114 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 6: really doesn't argue for some kind of diversification like. 115 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,799 Speaker 4: Me, give me, don't give me your time. 116 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 2: I get your strategist, you're not going to do that, 117 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 2: But what's the Sema Shaw allocation? 118 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 4: For the couple just east. 119 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 2: Of Graten heading up to Boston and there's silence in 120 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 2: the car, what's the what's the principal allocation? 121 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 5: So we're thinking mainly on US equities. 122 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 6: From an equity perspective, you're looking globally that you want 123 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 6: to have some exposure to some other markets like India 124 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 6: and Japan. We would be staying fairly clear of Europe 125 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 6: and China for the time being. Then from a fixed 126 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 6: income perspective, I know fixing income is a little bit 127 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 6: of a harder story at the moment because, as it is, 128 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:55,280 Speaker 6: money market funds are delivering so much. But we do 129 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 6: think that there's an opportunity to extend your duration a 130 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 6: little bit, start to think about investment grade, even high 131 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 6: yield because the backdrop is quite strong. 132 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 5: So there are opportunities. 133 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 6: And then the other thing is, and this is really important, 134 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 6: is that there has to be some kind of exposure 135 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:11,039 Speaker 6: to real assets. As I said before, the risk on 136 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 6: the horizon is really around inflation. You want to have 137 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:16,840 Speaker 6: some kind of inflation protection in your portfolios. So whether 138 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 6: that's real estate, commodities, there has to be some kind 139 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 6: of resilience within the portfolio as well. 140 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 2: See m Kevin on YouTube Live chat says tell Seman 141 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 2: to go to the JP Morgan Thanksgiving lunch. 142 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:42,919 Speaker 8: Oh in London, Sally. 143 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:40,359 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 144 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter. Listen on 145 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,359 Speaker 1: Apple car Play and and brout Otto with a Bloomberg 146 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:48,920 Speaker 1: Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 147 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 2: I was talking with their booking team and I said, look, 148 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 2: we got to get Bremer in Ian Bremer and Eurasia group, 149 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 2: of course with their ten top ten risks for twenty 150 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:01,239 Speaker 2: twenty five. They're putting that together right now, but really 151 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 2: we wanted to get an ample, commercial free conversation with 152 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 2: doctor Bremer, and we do that this morning. It's our 153 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 2: gift to you across this nation. I I go back 154 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 2: to your books, and I know you put one of 155 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 2: your older books out on social media the other day 156 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 2: of the tumult of twenty twenty four, the news that 157 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 2: we saw overnight of some solution north of Tel Aviv 158 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 2: into Lebanon. Can that be the first calming influence into 159 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 2: two thousand and twenty five. 160 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 7: I think near term we are. 161 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 9: Going to see some calming influences in the sense that 162 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 9: Trump wants to end wars and he's prepared to use 163 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 9: a significant amount of US political pressure and military pressure. 164 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 7: To get those outcomes. There's no question in my mind 165 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 7: that a ceasefire with Hesbelah was related to the election. 166 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 7: In part, it was delayed because the Israeli Prime Minister 167 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 7: didn't want to give Biden Harris a win. In part 168 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 7: it came quickly because they recognize that continuing to fight 169 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 7: that war when Trump is in power is something that 170 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 7: they were going to feel pressure over and they wanted 171 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 7: to avoid it. And next, of course is going to 172 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 7: be Russia Ukraine, and I'm sure you're gonna want to 173 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:23,640 Speaker 7: talk about that. 174 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 4: Oh, we had lots to talk about in this ample time, 175 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 4: and we really treasure it. 176 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:33,079 Speaker 2: How will shuttle diplomacy of Secretary Rubio will be different 177 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 2: than Secretary Blincoln. 178 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:42,839 Speaker 7: It'll be less frequent. Rubio's top priority from an experienced perspective, 179 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 7: and also in terms of the lane that he gets 180 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 7: to occupy by himself, will be Latin America. It'll be Cuba, 181 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:53,439 Speaker 7: it'll be Venezuela, it'll be Mexico. More broadly, the region, 182 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 7: and you know, I think he'll be credible there. And 183 00:08:57,080 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 7: by the way, I think he'll probably also appoint bipartisan 184 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 7: congressional delegations Senate delegations and send them to some of 185 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 7: these countries and others, which is something that has hadn't 186 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 7: gone as quickly as I would have liked under Biden. 187 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,959 Speaker 7: But on the Middle East, this, I mean, we're following 188 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 7: what has been the most pro Israel government in the world, 189 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:23,320 Speaker 7: the Biden administration, with what will be an even more 190 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 7: pro Israel government under Trump, by far, the most pro 191 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 7: Israel government in US history, and that is that clearly 192 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 7: is going to have an impact on Israeli settlements and 193 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 7: annexation in the West Bank, It'll have an impact on 194 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:45,200 Speaker 7: the future of Gaza, and it will continue to put 195 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 7: a hell of a lot of pressure on Iran. So 196 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 7: I wouldn't look to Rubio to be the person that's 197 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 7: going to lead that diplomatically, if simply because Trump's best 198 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,720 Speaker 7: relations in the world. And you'll remember Tom the first 199 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 7: trip he took as president in twenty seventeen was to 200 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 7: Saudi Arabia and then to Israel, very unusually for a 201 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 7: US president. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the first 202 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 7: trip he makes this time around is all sorts of 203 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 7: the Middle East. 204 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 3: So I does this ceasefire agreement with Hesbolah does that 205 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:23,719 Speaker 3: vode well for potential ceasefire with Hamas? What are the 206 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 3: relations of any I. 207 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 7: Don't think it matters much. I mean, it certainly puts 208 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 7: Hamas under even more pressure, but it's hard to put 209 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 7: Hamas under more pressure than they're already on. I mean, 210 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,960 Speaker 7: the Israeli Prime Minister said yesterday, well, now they know 211 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 7: they're not going to get a support from Hesbelah. Support 212 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:45,200 Speaker 7: from hes Bolah hasn't stopped Hamas's tunnels from all getting 213 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:48,199 Speaker 7: blown up, their arms, cachets from getting blown up, their 214 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 7: leaders from getting blown up, their fighters from getting blown up. 215 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 7: I mean, frankly, the Israelis are running out of targets 216 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 7: in Gaza at this point. So, I mean, the war 217 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 7: has been winding down. The only reason it's not over 218 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 7: is because there are still hostages that are being held 219 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 7: by Hamas, and of course we don't know how many 220 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 7: of them are still left alive. But I mean it's 221 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 7: not like that. You have far fewer people getting killed 222 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 7: in Gaza today than war six months ago, nine months ago, 223 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 7: and the reason for that is because it's just not 224 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 7: that much more for Israel to hit that is a 225 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 7: productive Hamas target. So I think it I don't think 226 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 7: it does matter all that much. I think where the 227 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 7: hes Blah ceasefire matters is it is you know, it's 228 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 7: clearly welcome for Iran because it is a ceasefire that 229 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 7: does not aim to end Hesbelah's capabilities. Israel is basically 230 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 7: saying that they are not prepared to blow up every 231 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 7: single Hesbela member to end their military capabilities, and of 232 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 7: course this is Iran's top proxy in the world and 233 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 7: it's their principal deterrent against Israel. Well, Israel's prepared to 234 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 7: allow them to continue to exist despite their military escalation dominance. 235 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:13,680 Speaker 7: So that's where I think it matters. Gaza not so much. 236 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 3: I were speaking with Ian Bremmer, president of Eurrasier Group, 237 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 3: getting a reset on global geopolitics. A lot happening in 238 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 3: the Middle East and Ukraine. Ian, what is the position 239 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 3: of Prime Minister Benjamin Etyahu with his people with Israel? 240 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 3: Is he still as strongly entrenched as he appears to be. 241 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 7: He's much more strongly entrenched than he has been at 242 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 7: any point in the last year. You'll remember, before the 243 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 7: October seventh terrorist attacks, there's a lot of Israel in 244 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:50,560 Speaker 7: the news because of massive demonstrations against Nat Yahoo's government 245 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 7: for his efforts to get out from underneath his own 246 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 7: legal problems and try to control what is a very 247 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:05,679 Speaker 7: independent judy. Then his popularity erode even further because he 248 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 7: was seen as responsible for allowing October seventh to happen 249 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:13,560 Speaker 7: on his watch. Well, it's a very different situation now. 250 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:18,559 Speaker 7: It is military successes against Hamas, political and military leaders 251 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:24,440 Speaker 7: both assassinated under Nan Yahoo. It is Lebanon and has 252 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 7: bellowed vastly more powerful than Hamas being completely defanged by 253 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 7: his war of choice in Lebanon. I mean these are 254 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 7: military victories. The cease fire comes with success political and 255 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 7: military success by the Israelis. So I think that if 256 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 7: there were an election in Israel today, obviously it would 257 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:51,640 Speaker 7: still be a coalition government because the political party system 258 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 7: is so fragmented. But I think Not Yahoo would have 259 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 7: a relatively easy time in putting a coalition together. 260 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 2: Our Thanksgiving treat to you, Ian Bremmer with us for 261 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 2: this entire half hour or commercial free nationwide. Good morning 262 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 2: on YouTube around the world. It's our new digital distribution. 263 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:10,839 Speaker 2: Doctor Bremer, you came out of the housing projects in Chelsea, Massachusetts. 264 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 2: You took a PhD at Stanford. I think of the 265 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 2: vicinity of twenty four years old, the dissertation the Politics 266 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 2: of Ethnicity Russians in the Ukraine. I mean talk about 267 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 2: getting out front of the topic of. 268 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 4: The day Ian. 269 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 2: What drew you to the Russians in the Ukraine at 270 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 2: the ripe old age of twenty four. 271 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 7: Well, I mean the Soviet Union collapsing. Suddenly fifteen countries 272 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 7: became independent and there were lots of Russians in those countries. 273 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 7: You'll remember back then, one of the people that we 274 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 7: talked about the most. This was after Frank Fukuyama End 275 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 7: of History. It was Samuel Huntington Clash of civilizations, And 276 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 7: what was a very popular theory was that what was 277 00:14:57,240 --> 00:14:59,160 Speaker 7: going to replace the Cold War was going to be 278 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 7: civilization clash, and it was gonna be Muslims versus Christians, 279 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 7: not Muslims versus Muslims, Muslims versus Christians, all these civilizational clashes. 280 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 7: And what I saw happening in the Soviet Union was 281 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 7: that one of the places that seemed to be the 282 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 7: most problematic, and that was likely to cause the most 283 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 7: long term conflict. Was not Russians versus Muslim Kazakhs or 284 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 7: Azaris or Uzbek's. It was Russians versus culturally identical Ukrainians. 285 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 7: Similar language, similar religion, similar history, similar land. But you know, 286 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 7: I was traveling in Crimea and I was meeting these 287 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 7: Russians that are like, no, this is our land. This 288 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 7: has nothing to do with Ukraine and southeast Ukraine where 289 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 7: it was heavily contested, and then places like Kiev and 290 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 7: Leviv in the west. And I mean these were European 291 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 7: Ukrainians who felt European, who were closer to Poland's and 292 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 7: we want nothing to do. We want independent country. Even 293 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 7: though there was intermarriage at that point, even though a 294 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 7: lot of people in Kiev didn't necessarily know, you know, 295 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 7: who was Ukrainian and who was Russian on the street, 296 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:14,720 Speaker 7: but around the country people certainly did so. Thirty years ago, 297 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 7: it was very clear that this was going to be 298 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 7: a serious long term problem. And of course, starting in 299 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 7: twenty fourteen and now again today, this turns out to 300 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 7: be one of them had pivots. 301 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 2: Let's get out let's get out funny into your top 302 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 2: ten risks for twenty twenty five. We have a some 303 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 2: form of Chicago Tribune isolationist Middle America President elect. 304 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 4: He wants to get this fixed in Ukraine. 305 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 2: Now, what in the zeitgeist right now are we getting 306 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 2: wrong about Ukraine giving all your academic commitment to it. 307 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 2: What's going to be the surprise in the next year. 308 00:16:56,560 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 7: Well, one is that the last time that President Trump 309 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 7: ended a war, it was in Afghanistan. He gave away 310 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:08,399 Speaker 7: the store to the Taliban, but he didn't have to 311 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 7: do the cleanup that was for Biden. This time around, 312 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,920 Speaker 7: the deal that is cut by Trump, he's going to 313 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:21,160 Speaker 7: be responsible for for four years. And so I think 314 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 7: he's aware of that, and I wonder I like, yes, 315 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:27,879 Speaker 7: he really wants to end the war. He's got a 316 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:31,639 Speaker 7: lot of capacity to pressure the Ukrainians. But the presumption 317 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 7: in the media and the zeitgeist, as you say, is 318 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 7: that Trump is going to give away the store to 319 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 7: Putin And I don't think that's true. I don't think 320 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 7: he wants a situation where Ukraine can be completely run 321 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 7: over and undermined by Russia. I think he's gonna want 322 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:52,119 Speaker 7: a Ukraine that the war is over, Russia's still in 323 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 7: the occupied territory they have now there's no way to 324 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 7: get them out of it. But Ukraine has the ability 325 00:17:56,800 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 7: to defend themselves and prevent Russia from taking more territory. 326 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 7: So that's not an easy deal to get done with Putin. 327 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 7: And I think if there's a place where Trump is 328 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 7: going to be more flexible then the Europeans want. Certainly, 329 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 7: I think it's going to be on the economics side. 330 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 7: I think Putin really would like to see an end 331 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 7: to sanctions, and I think Trump is prepared to give 332 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 7: that to him. It'll be very interesting to see how 333 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 7: the Europeans respond to that, and do they respond to 334 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,920 Speaker 7: it in a unified way or do they break down. 335 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:31,400 Speaker 7: That to me is where people are getting it wrong 336 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 7: in my view. 337 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 3: Ian what's the role of Zelenski and the Ukrainian people 338 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:40,440 Speaker 3: in this whole process? Assuming president like Trump wants to 339 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:42,399 Speaker 3: push a peace movement forward. 340 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 7: Look, they recognize that they need to end this war. 341 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 7: They're losing much more territory in the last week than 342 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 7: they've lost in any week since the beginning of the war, 343 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 7: and I expect that to continue. The Russians are going 344 00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 7: to press this for the next couple of months until 345 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:02,000 Speaker 7: Trump becomes president, and the Ukrainian position is likely to 346 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 7: look a lot worse when inauguration hits than it does 347 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:08,719 Speaker 7: right now. So I mean, yeah, you've got the permissioning 348 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,560 Speaker 7: to use long range missiles. That doesn't help them strategically 349 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 7: on the ground. Particularly. That's why Biden dragged his feet 350 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 7: on it to begin with, because it wasn't gonna matter 351 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 7: very much. So look, Celenski frankly needs an excuse to 352 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 7: stop the bleeding, and it is ending. The war is 353 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 7: more popular now in Ukraine than it was a year ago, 354 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,639 Speaker 7: two years ago, but he can't be seen as losing 355 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,879 Speaker 7: his country. So again, a lot of this has to 356 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,399 Speaker 7: do with what Trump and his team is going to 357 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 7: come in and say. And you know, the Trump advisory group, 358 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:48,200 Speaker 7: the Cabinet coming in. Let's leave aside Tulsey Gabbert, who 359 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,239 Speaker 7: is an outlier, but it wouldn't be seen in this 360 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 7: position as driving the outcome. You know, it is going 361 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 7: to be pretty hawkish in support of Ukraine. So I 362 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 7: think there's still a great deal to watch here. I 363 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 7: don't think it's right. I don't think this is giving 364 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 7: away the score and undermining Zelenski completely right. 365 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:08,439 Speaker 2: Ian Bremer with it's just thrilled to have them on 366 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:11,880 Speaker 2: here for almost a whole half hour, commercial free through 367 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 2: the economic data churn to the market, the Sweeney yield 368 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,200 Speaker 2: four point two to one percent, the two year yield 369 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 2: in five basis points. I look at the ten year 370 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:23,200 Speaker 2: real yield that's in five basis points one point ninety 371 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 2: seven percent. I want to go back to a book 372 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,160 Speaker 2: I in that you feature the other day US Versus Them, 373 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 2: the failure of Globalism. 374 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:31,880 Speaker 4: You steal a. 375 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,919 Speaker 2: Line from Raghu Rajan out at booth you go. The 376 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:38,360 Speaker 2: fault Lines is one chapter three of US Versus Them? 377 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 4: Where's the fault line? Right now? 378 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 2: In our trade policy forward? Lightheiser is not on board, 379 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 2: but I guess we have a new trade policy. Witnessed 380 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:50,639 Speaker 2: the news the other day. Where is the unknown fault 381 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:52,239 Speaker 2: line we need to pay attention to? 382 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:58,439 Speaker 7: Well, there are two, as you note from Trump's first 383 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:02,200 Speaker 7: efforts at making paula see as president elect. You've got 384 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:07,120 Speaker 7: the ally fault line, where he expects, you know, deals, 385 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 7: and then you've got the adversary fault line where he 386 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 7: expects deals and and Trump doesn't necessarily treat them as 387 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,199 Speaker 7: all that different. I mean, it was less than an 388 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 7: hour between him posting that there's going to be new 389 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 7: tariffs against Mexico and Canada unless they give him satisfaction 390 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,399 Speaker 7: and when he said the same thing about China unless 391 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:34,399 Speaker 7: the Chinese provides satisfaction. So those are tom Those are 392 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 7: two very very different fault lines. 393 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 2: But to me, Paul, this is really important, doctor Bremer. 394 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 2: To me, what's so simplistic? Heure China US versus them, 395 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:44,880 Speaker 2: Canada US versus. 396 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 4: Them, Golden Sex. 397 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:47,719 Speaker 2: I believe it was in think of Zero Edge had 398 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 2: a brilliant note out on what about Vietnam? I mean, Ian, 399 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 2: are we amateur in naive that we don't understand how 400 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 2: complex this debate is? 401 00:21:58,960 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 7: Are we? 402 00:21:59,520 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 10: Or? 403 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 7: Is true? 404 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 2: I think all of us within our discussion is just 405 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:08,439 Speaker 2: so easy to be by transactional in to be bipartisan 406 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 2: where it's still a multilateral world? 407 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 4: Am I wrong? 408 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:15,919 Speaker 7: I think it's important to react to the policymakers that 409 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 7: are driving policy, and Trump is already occupying that role, 410 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 7: and he chose to go after Canada, Mexico and China, 411 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 7: and he does not see tariffs through a uniquely economic lens. 412 00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 7: He sees tariffs as the principal tool by which the 413 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 7: United States gets outcomes that it wants in foreign policy. 414 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:45,399 Speaker 7: I mean, in his first administration, it is true that 415 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,400 Speaker 7: he used tariffs to try to make America great again 416 00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:52,880 Speaker 7: in places like steel, right, and he also used it 417 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 7: to try to get the Japanese and South Koreans to 418 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 7: pay more for their defense the United States. He used 419 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 7: it in Mexico to talk about immigration. In his post 420 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 7: the other day, he was talking about fentanyl. And it 421 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 7: wouldn't surprise me if those posts came right on the 422 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 7: back of Trump watching some Fox News segment showing how 423 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 7: horrible fentanyl is in the United States and he's like, 424 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 7: I got to do something about that. I'm gonna go 425 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,919 Speaker 7: and hit the Mexicans and the Canadians and the Chinese. 426 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 7: So it's not as if Trump is using tariffs purely 427 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:31,639 Speaker 7: to redress economic problems, although clearly he does care about 428 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,159 Speaker 7: trade deficits. It's far far broader than that. 429 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 3: Right now, and it just we're starting to see this 430 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 3: cabinet kind of shake out here. From your perspective, the 431 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:42,680 Speaker 3: way you view the world is or anything that kind 432 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,399 Speaker 3: of jumps out of you, either positive or negative. 433 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 7: Gets jumped out at me as uniquely negative. There were 434 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:56,120 Speaker 7: a solid seven hard nos among Republican senators to get 435 00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:59,040 Speaker 7: him out. And what I thought was interesting was that 436 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 7: Trump allowed him to be thrown under the bus immediately, 437 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 7: didn't put up a fight. It's an amazing thing about 438 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 7: Trump is that when he decides that he's no longer interested, 439 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,439 Speaker 7: it's gone, it's gone. He doesn't dwell on losses. He like, 440 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,199 Speaker 7: you know, you'll never hear about it again. Right. I 441 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 7: thought it was also interesting something that didn't happen. Howard Lutnick, 442 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 7: who Elon Musk, was pushing internally and there were leaks 443 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:28,159 Speaker 7: against that from Trump's advisors, and then he pushed publicly 444 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,600 Speaker 7: and within forty eight hours Lutnik didn't get Treasury. So 445 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 7: that was interesting, right. I mean, this is in other words, 446 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,120 Speaker 7: and I haven't seen JD. Vance have much influence at 447 00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:44,480 Speaker 7: all in terms of appointees. So Trump is making these decisions. Gets. 448 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:48,600 Speaker 7: The Gets decision was made initially without Trump's chief of 449 00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:51,920 Speaker 7: staff even knowing about it, Susie Wiles. So I mean, 450 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,239 Speaker 7: this isn't maybe what you were asking, but I mean 451 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,479 Speaker 7: I'm pointing to a whole bunch of things that didn't 452 00:24:56,520 --> 00:25:01,000 Speaker 7: happen where I think we're getting information. Certainly there are 453 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,919 Speaker 7: still outliers in terms of people that really don't they 454 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 7: shouldn't be in the positions that they're in. Tulsi's one, 455 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 7: I mean doctor Oz, for Christ's sake, RFK Junior, Pete Haigseth. 456 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 7: But but these are not authoritarians. And frankly, these are 457 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 7: not people who I see as strategically or even structurally corrupt. 458 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,679 Speaker 7: They're just people that are that are fundamentally incompetent and 459 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:33,359 Speaker 7: unfit for the jobs. And there aren't that many of them. 460 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 10: Most of the people that he's appointing are people that 461 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,119 Speaker 10: I would consider to be at least marginally capable, and 462 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:43,800 Speaker 10: some of them, like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio are 463 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 10: strongly capable. 464 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 7: So you know, it's at least a B minus your cabinet. 465 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:52,040 Speaker 4: So far, I need an A plus. 466 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,480 Speaker 2: Ian, I need you to do the twenty top risks 467 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 2: for twenty twenty five. 468 00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:56,680 Speaker 4: Get to work. 469 00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 2: There seem to be some topers out there. Ian Bremer 470 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,679 Speaker 2: with us, What a great way to start the holiday season. 471 00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 2: Doctor Bremer, of course at Eur Razor Group, can't say 472 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:07,919 Speaker 2: enough about his books. One out a couple of years ago. 473 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 2: We got to look for the next book to come 474 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 2: out as well. 475 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:16,920 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 476 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 477 00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,119 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 478 00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:26,320 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 479 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,399 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 480 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 2: He shows up from Case Capital Management. I guess we 481 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 2: should talk to Whitney Tilson about private equity, private investment, 482 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:43,679 Speaker 2: Global Macro, except he's changed the script. Whitney Tilson is 483 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,879 Speaker 2: decided to run for mayors. John Tucker just mentioned it 484 00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 2: is a crowded field as well. He will run as 485 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:54,879 Speaker 2: a Democrat in this New York City. Whitney, You've climbed 486 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 2: the Matterhorn. You know it's not K two the East Face, 487 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,080 Speaker 2: but your mister Mountain. I've looked from Zermatt over at 488 00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:05,480 Speaker 2: the Matterhorn and going you've got to be kidnaping. This 489 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 2: mayor's race is going to be tougher than the matter Horn, 490 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:13,240 Speaker 2: tougher than anything you crime. You've done. You've climbed. How 491 00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 2: are you going to find a distinctive voice on the 492 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 2: worry of crime in New York City and quite frankly 493 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:21,440 Speaker 2: across this nation. 494 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,119 Speaker 8: You know, I am speaking more broadly, just about a 495 00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:31,199 Speaker 8: distinctive voice, not just on crime. But there is no 496 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,880 Speaker 8: business person in the field. In fact, you said it's 497 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:35,760 Speaker 8: a crowded field, and I don't know. I guess a 498 00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,880 Speaker 8: half dozen people sounds crowded. But I'm the only person 499 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 8: who's not a career politician in the field. So I'm 500 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:47,280 Speaker 8: a lifelong Democrat, been super active in the party for 501 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,960 Speaker 8: the last twenty years. But ever since Mayor Bloomberg left. 502 00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 8: Look at what's happened to our city in the last 503 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:57,640 Speaker 8: eleven years with some combination of career politicians de Blasio 504 00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:01,360 Speaker 8: and Adams, the last two mayors, who are some combination 505 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:07,480 Speaker 8: of corrupt, incompetent, and beholden to the radical left. And 506 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,680 Speaker 8: so I'm concerned about my city. I share the view 507 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 8: of the majority of New Yorkers that the city's had 508 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:14,959 Speaker 8: in the wrong direction. I want to turn it around. 509 00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:17,920 Speaker 2: I should mention that former Mayor Bloomberg, of course, is 510 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,199 Speaker 2: part of Bloomberg Lpan drives a ship every morning for 511 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg surveillance in Bloomberg Radio worldwide Whitney Tilson. Mister Bloomberg 512 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,679 Speaker 2: had ample funds to prosecute a campaign. What is the 513 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,600 Speaker 2: initial support you've seen if you don't have the Bloomberg 514 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:36,880 Speaker 2: checking account. 515 00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 8: Right, Well, every candidate has to decide whether to take 516 00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 8: city matching money or self bund mayor. Bloomberg spent seventy 517 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 8: three million dollars of his own money to win his 518 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:49,160 Speaker 8: first race for mayor. 519 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 7: And then serve two more terms. 520 00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 8: Of course, I, like every other candidate in the race, 521 00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,240 Speaker 8: is going to take advantage of an extraordinary matching program. 522 00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:00,480 Speaker 8: But we have to adhere to a seven point nine 523 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 8: million dollars total spend for the primary, and the same 524 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:06,520 Speaker 8: for the general whoever wins the primary, seven point nine 525 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,160 Speaker 8: million dollars. And by the way, if we adhere to that, 526 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,080 Speaker 8: all all candidates, if we take up to two hundred 527 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 8: and fifty dollars for New York City residents, it's matched 528 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 8: eight to one. So any New York City resident who 529 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,960 Speaker 8: gives me two hundred and fifty bucks, my campaign gets 530 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 8: two thousand on top of that. And so I plan 531 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 8: to take full advantage of that and try and raise 532 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 8: as much money from New York City residents. 533 00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 2: And what's great about that, Paul Sweeney is John Tucker's 534 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:34,120 Speaker 2: congestion tax payment each day will be two hundred and 535 00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:37,160 Speaker 2: fifty dollars. Away's crossing across sixtieth Street. 536 00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 3: All right, Whitney, let's go to that. What's your view 537 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 3: on congestion pricing, because that's become a political football. 538 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,680 Speaker 8: I know, I'm all in favor of it. I think 539 00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 8: we should be doing the opposite of what this country 540 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,640 Speaker 8: has been doing for the last you know, fifty years, 541 00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:54,240 Speaker 8: which is subsidizing driving and charging for public transportation. We 542 00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,120 Speaker 8: should be doing the reverse. You know, I've traveled the 543 00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,360 Speaker 8: world and I've been to Singapore and there is there 544 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 8: is not a single bit of traffic to any kind 545 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 8: of traffic jam in Singapore. Why because they congestion price 546 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,680 Speaker 8: basically the whole city, and anytime there's rush hour traffic 547 00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,520 Speaker 8: down a particular street, they just raised the price until 548 00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,320 Speaker 8: the traffic is gone. I think people who oppose congestion 549 00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:16,920 Speaker 8: pricing are thinking about the cost of it wrong. It's 550 00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:19,640 Speaker 8: not the nine dollars of the fifteen dollars that's really 551 00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:24,240 Speaker 8: costing people. It's sitting in traffic for an hour, burning 552 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 8: expensive gas and wasting your time and I want to 553 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:28,760 Speaker 8: get rid of all of that in New York City. 554 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:32,600 Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about housing costs. I mean, for 555 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,680 Speaker 3: most New Yorkers, it is a constant challenge. Quite frankly, 556 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,719 Speaker 3: it's been the constant challenge as long as I can remember. 557 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:42,840 Speaker 3: Is there a solution? Is there a way to reduce 558 00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,000 Speaker 3: that burden on average New Yorkers? 559 00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:49,680 Speaker 8: Yes, although there's no magic bullet that's going to immediately 560 00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,240 Speaker 8: bring down housing costs. This is built up over a 561 00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,720 Speaker 8: long period of time. And it's a classic example of 562 00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:58,280 Speaker 8: what I as a lifelong Democrat and running against, which 563 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 8: is I'm a sensible center. We need to build more housing. 564 00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 8: Vacancy rate in New York cities down to one point 565 00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 8: four percent. And the problem is is nobody's been able 566 00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:15,200 Speaker 8: to build new housing because of primarily bureaucratic regulations and 567 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:18,240 Speaker 8: so forth, but also these incredibly onerous zoning rules. The 568 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,360 Speaker 8: radical lefty Nimby types, not in my backyard types, have 569 00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:26,360 Speaker 8: taken a good idea, which is sensible zoning, and taken 570 00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,080 Speaker 8: it to an extreme. When you have sort of a 571 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,960 Speaker 8: one party control of the city, often extremists get their agenda. 572 00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:34,719 Speaker 8: Over the years, all these zoning rigs have built up 573 00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:39,160 Speaker 8: so to its credits. The city Council last week finally 574 00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 8: passed a watered down built to slightly ease these zoning issues. 575 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,120 Speaker 8: I'm going to really push hard on that because we 576 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:49,160 Speaker 8: need a lot more housing and that will bring the 577 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:49,720 Speaker 8: price down. 578 00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:54,320 Speaker 2: Wennie Tilson, our listeners and viewers nationwide, indeed worldwide when 579 00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:58,200 Speaker 2: they go through JFK visit New York and they notice 580 00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:03,200 Speaker 2: a different and absolutely unique police force. Jessica Tish takes 581 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 2: over as a new commissioner for Mayor Adams. What will 582 00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:10,720 Speaker 2: the Tilson NYPD look like if you're elected as a 583 00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:11,800 Speaker 2: Democratic mayor? 584 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:16,479 Speaker 8: Yeah, well, I can boil it down into six words. 585 00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:21,560 Speaker 8: Big picture, Let police do their fricking jobs. That's the 586 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,680 Speaker 8: big picture. And three words of that is the opposite, 587 00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 8: which is deep on the police, which are the three 588 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,320 Speaker 8: dumbest words of all time. So again, that's what the 589 00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:35,000 Speaker 8: radical left has been pushing and handcuffing our police. So 590 00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:38,800 Speaker 8: let me give three bullet points. Number one, prime of 591 00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:42,240 Speaker 8: violent crime in particular is not random. If you look 592 00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,720 Speaker 8: at all the one hundred thousand plus city blocks in 593 00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 8: New York, fifty percent of violent crime person only three 594 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:53,160 Speaker 8: point five percent of those blocks and it's a single 595 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,720 Speaker 8: apartment building or a single block where there's open air 596 00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,640 Speaker 8: drug dealing, you know, like in Washington Square Park for example. 597 00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:04,920 Speaker 8: In those areas, the police working with the local community. 598 00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,719 Speaker 8: You can't have the police come in as some invading force, 599 00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:11,560 Speaker 8: you know, oppressing local residents. It's the law abiding local 600 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,640 Speaker 8: residents in these areas that are being terrorized by criminals. 601 00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:17,720 Speaker 8: That so you form the zone, you declare a state 602 00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:20,640 Speaker 8: of emergency, and you put more police in, not less, 603 00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,240 Speaker 8: working with the communtry. So that would be number one. 604 00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:26,480 Speaker 8: Number two is is we've got to roll back part 605 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,480 Speaker 8: of the sanctuary city legislation that the radical left passed 606 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:33,840 Speaker 8: under Deblasio that don't allow our local officials when they 607 00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:38,200 Speaker 8: arrest an illegal immigrant committing crimes, they should be on 608 00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,960 Speaker 8: the they should be turned off iceon on the next 609 00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 8: flight back to their home country. And that's not happening. 610 00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:44,920 Speaker 4: Okay, Whitney, We've got to leave it there. 611 00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,480 Speaker 2: We're out of time, but we look forward to having 612 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,560 Speaker 2: you back on again, as we will many other candidates 613 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:54,600 Speaker 2: within this New York City mayor race, including Prahaps We'll 614 00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:57,680 Speaker 2: try to get on again. Eric Adams are President Mayor 615 00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:02,080 Speaker 2: mister Kilson running as a democrat in a crowded field 616 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:03,960 Speaker 2: to say the leaves. 617 00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:14,560 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 618 00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:17,840 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 619 00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,800 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 620 00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:24,120 Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 621 00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:25,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal. 622 00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,440 Speaker 2: What a joy and honor to have Dana Telsea in 623 00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:32,840 Speaker 2: studio right now here as we slide into the holiday season. 624 00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:37,880 Speaker 2: She lived the fabric of retail New York City. The 625 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:41,399 Speaker 2: other day, Milan Dana Telsea, I guess is bigger now 626 00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:44,680 Speaker 2: than Fifth Avenue, but there's still Fifth Avenue a dominant 627 00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 2: on Fifth Avenue. 628 00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:49,080 Speaker 4: Lewis Viwton is blowing up the building. What are they 629 00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:50,160 Speaker 4: gonna build? 630 00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:53,840 Speaker 2: What is the Arnault family gonna build at fifty seventh 631 00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:55,360 Speaker 2: Street in Fifth Avenue? 632 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,600 Speaker 11: What's gonna be amazing? And Tom, thank you so much 633 00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:59,560 Speaker 11: for having me today. It's a pleasure to be here. 634 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,120 Speaker 11: Let's talk about and show people what they're doing on 635 00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:06,160 Speaker 11: Fifth Avenue. Trunks that go up seven stories tall as 636 00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,839 Speaker 11: they and capture the building so that they tear it 637 00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,560 Speaker 11: down and build it up again. It's a seven year build, 638 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,360 Speaker 11: and across the street they have the Louis Vuitton store 639 00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:18,719 Speaker 11: in the former Tiffany Con temporary sell So it's going 640 00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:20,960 Speaker 11: to be what I hear office and it's going to 641 00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,400 Speaker 11: be an amazing retail store. When you think about what 642 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:25,960 Speaker 11: opened in Paris, it feels like that's going to be 643 00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,920 Speaker 11: New York. And when you look at what everyone's doing, 644 00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,520 Speaker 11: the social media that's going on of everyone taking pictures 645 00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:36,800 Speaker 11: of those trunks, whether tourists or locals, it's absolutely awesome. 646 00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:37,279 Speaker 4: To me. 647 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:42,319 Speaker 2: The absolute seismic change is Paul I can enjoy for 648 00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:46,680 Speaker 2: twenty four six hundred dollars the Alhambra's secret pendant watch 649 00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:48,439 Speaker 2: night at Van Klief. 650 00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:49,040 Speaker 4: Across the street. 651 00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:51,680 Speaker 3: You know what, you know it well through a firm. 652 00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:56,800 Speaker 2: This to me is ginormous in the luxuries finally getting 653 00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:58,440 Speaker 2: the way Americans shop. 654 00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:00,840 Speaker 11: I think there's some of that. I think some of 655 00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,920 Speaker 11: it's unique to Van Cleef. Also, I think some brands 656 00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,680 Speaker 11: like Ermez, you're only seeing it walk in and out 657 00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,600 Speaker 11: of the store and online where you need that relationship 658 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:13,160 Speaker 11: with that sales associate. But companies like the Bergdorf, Goodman's 659 00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,799 Speaker 11: and other luxury brands they're innovating for today because they 660 00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:18,720 Speaker 11: need the shopper who's going to be there tomorrow. 661 00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:21,440 Speaker 3: Also, all right, so Tom's shopping at Van Cleef and 662 00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:21,960 Speaker 3: got whatever? 663 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:23,000 Speaker 7: Blah blah. 664 00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:24,919 Speaker 3: What are the rest of us doing? How retail sales 665 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,480 Speaker 3: going to be? How is holiday shopping shaping up this year? 666 00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,920 Speaker 11: I think the holiday season is going to be respectable. 667 00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:31,919 Speaker 11: When you think about the increase. Could it be three 668 00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:34,160 Speaker 11: to three and a half percent versus four point six 669 00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:37,000 Speaker 11: percent last year? You couple have a couple of ticks 670 00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,719 Speaker 11: and ties, a compressed holiday season, five fewer days. I 671 00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:42,799 Speaker 11: don't know about you, but whether it's my text or 672 00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:45,600 Speaker 11: my emails, I'm getting discounts school more of what the 673 00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:47,919 Speaker 11: promotions are going to be. So it will be more 674 00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,440 Speaker 11: promotional this year than last year. And you know, experiences 675 00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:53,840 Speaker 11: still matter. You look at people now going out to 676 00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:58,160 Speaker 11: dinner Triloka Travel, which has shown huge increases. It's important 677 00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:00,719 Speaker 11: to say the wow factor and what else is going 678 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:03,640 Speaker 11: to work? Whether it's the closed toad shoes at Birkenstock, 679 00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:07,160 Speaker 11: whether it's the value of the off pricers GJX and Walmart. 680 00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,719 Speaker 11: Look where Walmart's biggest games are coming from. Some of 681 00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:11,160 Speaker 11: their higher income consumers. 682 00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:13,960 Speaker 3: How do the retailers have what they need on the 683 00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:14,760 Speaker 3: on the shelves. 684 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:16,920 Speaker 7: Are they fully stopped? Are they ready to go? 685 00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:18,719 Speaker 11: I think they're ready to go. I think they've been 686 00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,840 Speaker 11: ready to go. Definitely, tariffs, when you think about the future, 687 00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:26,000 Speaker 11: that's an impact. Everyone's tried to diversify their exposure to China, 688 00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:29,160 Speaker 11: but look, it's coming on other places now too. At 689 00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,680 Speaker 11: the end of the day, whatever these tariffs will be, 690 00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:35,080 Speaker 11: there's only so much retailers can absorb themselves, and that 691 00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:37,920 Speaker 11: will be a headwind for consumers if prices move up. 692 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:42,680 Speaker 2: Joseph I Feldman has killed it on Walmart along to 693 00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:44,480 Speaker 2: see's not alone but. 694 00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,080 Speaker 4: Mere mortals like me. Dana look at Walmart with the 695 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:48,520 Speaker 4: thirty five multiple and go. 696 00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:51,560 Speaker 2: I didn't learn this from Dana Telsey at bear Stearns 697 00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:55,080 Speaker 2: a million years ago. How do you justify the price 698 00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:58,160 Speaker 2: to earnings, price to cash flow, price to sales ratio 699 00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:01,160 Speaker 2: of revenue growers per year? 700 00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:03,080 Speaker 11: One of the things that you have to look at 701 00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:06,000 Speaker 11: when going back to my Ron Barren days, who is 702 00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:09,000 Speaker 11: my mentor who I learned from? The competitive mode that 703 00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:12,640 Speaker 11: a business develops gives them the opportunity to scale. Look 704 00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:15,880 Speaker 11: what Walmart is doing. Walmart today is not the Walmart 705 00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,600 Speaker 11: of yesterday. You look at their other revenues from other 706 00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:22,040 Speaker 11: business lines that are growing extensively. Look at their sixty 707 00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:25,200 Speaker 11: percent of sales that are coming from essentials, and frankly, 708 00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:27,759 Speaker 11: look what they're doing with both the digital channel and 709 00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:31,440 Speaker 11: the physical channel, coupled with what they've got globally. So 710 00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:35,000 Speaker 11: what Don McMillan has done has moved the business forward, 711 00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:38,680 Speaker 11: and that competitive mode is only getting stronger. 712 00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:44,120 Speaker 3: What is the e commerce versus in store ratio these days? 713 00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:46,280 Speaker 3: I mean, I know that the pandemic kind of pulled 714 00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,799 Speaker 3: a lot of that market share towards e commerce. Are 715 00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:51,879 Speaker 3: we reset it to normal here? 716 00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:55,200 Speaker 11: I think overall? You look what Norstrom reported yesterday, around 717 00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:57,880 Speaker 11: thirty four percent of their sales came from e commerce. 718 00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:01,080 Speaker 11: You still have faster growth than e commerce because it's 719 00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,920 Speaker 11: smaller than what you have in physical But one of 720 00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:07,480 Speaker 11: the things that's happened, the pandemic allowed the physical channel 721 00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,640 Speaker 11: to reset, and it allowed the physical channel to reset 722 00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:13,920 Speaker 11: because they closed stores and now they're investing in their stores. 723 00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:16,040 Speaker 11: Look at the new flagships that are opening here in 724 00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,600 Speaker 11: New York. Aritzia is one of the stores I'm going 725 00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:21,240 Speaker 11: to tomorrow because they just open their next. 726 00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:22,920 Speaker 3: Door and so hoo oh, would you like to step 727 00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:26,480 Speaker 3: in your at least you can tag along with in 728 00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:28,240 Speaker 3: the closed toe Birkenstocks. 729 00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,600 Speaker 11: We are set exactly. You're gonna buy your puffer at 730 00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,239 Speaker 11: Aritzia and we're your closed toe Birkenstocks. 731 00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:36,680 Speaker 2: What's your single best idea? I mean, the charm of 732 00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:40,120 Speaker 2: Dana Telsea is the chat on women's boots, but also 733 00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:42,400 Speaker 2: we got to make money. Do you make money with 734 00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:44,920 Speaker 2: a value trap now that's finally going to turn around 735 00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,480 Speaker 2: and move or do you go on board something that's 736 00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:48,080 Speaker 2: already moving. 737 00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:49,320 Speaker 4: What's your single best idea? 738 00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,680 Speaker 11: I want to go what's moving and working. I want 739 00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:53,880 Speaker 11: to look at Ralph Lauren. I want to look at Birkenstock. 740 00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,759 Speaker 11: I want to keep going with TJX. That's where I 741 00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:58,360 Speaker 11: think some of the winners are. 742 00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:02,160 Speaker 2: Min and a half bull amount of time on Bloomberg surveillance. 743 00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:06,120 Speaker 2: How does Dana Telsey turn around the train wreck that 744 00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:08,560 Speaker 2: is Doc Martin's a. 745 00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,520 Speaker 11: Lot of work to do. It all comes to product. 746 00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:12,160 Speaker 11: What are they going to put out that's going to 747 00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:15,320 Speaker 11: capture the awareness of the consumer that goes on social 748 00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:18,160 Speaker 11: media in order to drive interest. They're not there yet. 749 00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,279 Speaker 11: And Birkenstock is you know. 750 00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,080 Speaker 3: Where she got some of her training back in the day. 751 00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:22,600 Speaker 2: C J. 752 00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,120 Speaker 3: Lawrence again going to our theory, Tom and I have 753 00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:26,200 Speaker 3: him a by c J. Lawrence. 754 00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:29,160 Speaker 7: Some of the best research channalysts for. 755 00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:31,399 Speaker 3: Decades came out of the shop. 756 00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:31,680 Speaker 1: C J. 757 00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:32,799 Speaker 7: Lawrence. Nobody knows about it. 758 00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:34,120 Speaker 4: You grew up as a child. 759 00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:37,760 Speaker 2: A magical childhood is literally like Eloise at the plaza 760 00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:39,400 Speaker 2: at Bergdorf Goodman. 761 00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:42,200 Speaker 4: Where is Bergdorf Goodman in ten years? 762 00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:44,840 Speaker 11: I think we're still going to have her Bergdorf Goodman today. 763 00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,160 Speaker 11: I think the relationships and the partnerships with the designers 764 00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:51,760 Speaker 11: are more important than ever. But you know what else matters? Service? 765 00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:54,440 Speaker 11: I think when I think about twenty twenty five and 766 00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:58,680 Speaker 11: beyond about the letter s, service and social, I think 767 00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:02,720 Speaker 11: service matters to keep the customer there. I think social 768 00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:06,600 Speaker 11: matters because you have to engage whether digitally or physically, 769 00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:08,719 Speaker 11: and really shows the personalization. 770 00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:10,920 Speaker 4: Did you see the new look on Apple TV? The 771 00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:12,480 Speaker 4: magical movie about Door. 772 00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:15,480 Speaker 11: I'm going to go check it out that tomorrow. 773 00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:17,680 Speaker 2: What do you or you should see him over in 774 00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,520 Speaker 2: fifthemth they're putting up this light show right now. It's 775 00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:23,800 Speaker 2: like a gajillion dollars in that. What's mister arnaulnu Jacks. 776 00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:25,640 Speaker 2: What does mister Arnauld purchase? 777 00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:29,120 Speaker 11: That'll be very interesting to see what he purchases. You 778 00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:31,480 Speaker 11: heard that giving he purchased a little bit of Montclair 779 00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:34,920 Speaker 11: that Montclair was potentially looking at Burbery. And I would 780 00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:38,120 Speaker 11: have thought mister Arnault would purchase Bergdorf because I think 781 00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,440 Speaker 11: that would allow him to have all four corners of 782 00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:41,280 Speaker 11: fifty seventh Street. 783 00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:42,160 Speaker 1: Oh can you? 784 00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,520 Speaker 2: She brings the conversation a bar to a complete as out, 785 00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:48,640 Speaker 2: telling Dana Telsey honored to have you in here the 786 00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,640 Speaker 2: Wednesday before Thanksgiving. She's that kind of course. 787 00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:54,520 Speaker 4: The Telsey Advisory Group. And it's not just Dana. 788 00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:57,840 Speaker 2: Joe Feldman writing heard as well, Big box all the 789 00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:04,359 Speaker 2: way over to a firm the luxury provider of your choice. 790 00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:09,480 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 791 00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:13,760 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 792 00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:16,920 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 793 00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:20,840 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 794 00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:24,160 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 795 00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:25,880 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal