Speaker 1: Hello friends, and welcome back to Fantasy Pros. I'm Chris Welsh,
Speaker 1: and today we're talking about the twelve players that experts
Speaker 1: are drafting. Now before we get all experty, how would
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Speaker 1: Who are the experts drafting? Well, I might have a
Speaker 1: little insight on that, so let's take a look. Coming
Speaker 1: in at number twelve, Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carrol, no surprise,
Speaker 1: the masses would flock to the fastest man in base
Speaker 1: a three point six six to ninety feet Corman. Carroll's
Speaker 1: ADP is rising, but it's because the industry wants the
Speaker 1: next big thing. Carrol's ECR on Fantasy Pros currently is
Speaker 1: seventy six with a high of forty six, but since
Speaker 1: March first over in the NFBC, Carrol has a fifty
Speaker 1: six ADP and a high of thirty six. Carrol's projected
Speaker 1: for thirteen homers and twenty one stolen bases on Batex projections,
Speaker 1: but as a leadoff hitter for the Diamondbacks and a
Speaker 1: new contract which lessens the risk of him being sent down,
Speaker 1: experts are jumping on the opportunity to get a first
Speaker 1: round talent in the fourth or fifth so even though
Speaker 1: the price is rising, it hasn't stopped any experts. In fact,
Speaker 1: it's because of them. Number eleven Padres starting pitcher Joe Muskrove. Now,
Speaker 1: prior to Musgrove's injury, he was going around the seventies.
Speaker 1: Muscrove fractured his toe and then his ADP fell down
Speaker 1: into the late nineties or even in some spots the
Speaker 1: one hundred range. His recovery, though, has been quick, and
Speaker 1: it's possible he misses only one to two starts in season.
Speaker 1: Musgrove is projected for a mid three ERA and a
Speaker 1: huge rise in wins on the bat to twelve wins
Speaker 1: even though his innings are just sitting at under one seventy.
Speaker 1: This isn't an arm injury scare, which would usually make
Speaker 1: experts run for the hills. In this case, they're taking
Speaker 1: advantage of the value. Musgrove has an ECR high of sixty,
Speaker 1: and if healthy, he'd be going two rounds higher than
Speaker 1: he currently is. Number ten Royals first baseman Vinnie pass Quantino.
Speaker 1: The top end of first base is weighted to the
Speaker 1: big guys, then there's a big drop off that starts
Speaker 1: to happen, and that's why Vinnie pas Quentino has become
Speaker 1: a huge industry target. Past Quentino's projected the six best
Speaker 1: batting average on Steamer at first base and one of
Speaker 1: only three first basemen projected for twenty plus homers and
Speaker 1: a two seventy five batting average or higher. The other
Speaker 1: two first basemen you ask, Freddy Freeman and Vlad Guerrero Junior.
Speaker 1: Vinnie hit two ninety five with ten homers in seventy
Speaker 1: two games in twenty twenty two, and with the low
Speaker 1: strikeout risk and high contact skills have made him an
Speaker 1: expert target for almost every team. Number nine Twins starting
Speaker 1: pitcher Joe Ryan. Adding velocity is like the core ingredient
Speaker 1: for spring training hype for pitchers. Joe Ryan has done
Speaker 1: just that while also throwing a new slider that's ingredient.
Speaker 1: Number two. Ryan has a one thirty four ECR and
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros, which is a plus nine differential between his ADP,
Speaker 1: so the ranks are going higher than where he's actually
Speaker 1: being drafted. He also has a rank high of ninety one,
Speaker 1: which that's actually higher than Nick Lodolo. Projections are incredibly favorable.
Speaker 1: That actually looks similar to Joe Muscrow's numbers just in
Speaker 1: a few less innings post one hundred. Starting pitchers are
Speaker 1: an expert secret recipe, and Joe Ryan seems to be
Speaker 1: one of those core pieces. Number eight Tampa Bay Ray's
Speaker 1: outfielder Randy A. Rosarana. No one was more electric in
Speaker 1: the later rounds of the day WBC than Randia rose Arena.
Speaker 1: I will always remember that catch and then the mean mug.
Speaker 1: He's coming off of a twenty thirty home under stolen
Speaker 1: based season in projections, believe he's going to grow off
Speaker 1: of those numbers. The bad x has him hitting the
Speaker 1: exact same amount of homers twenty again, but he's up
Speaker 1: to thirty five stolen bases, which is six in all
Speaker 1: of baseball and third among outfielders. A thirty five ADP
Speaker 1: seems to be a home as that's his Fantasy Pros
Speaker 1: ECR and his NFBC ADP since March first. The difference
Speaker 1: is people are reaching to get their guy. The highest
Speaker 1: pick in NFBC in that same period was twenty three overall,
Speaker 1: and one ranker on Fantasy Pros has put a rose
Speaker 1: Arena at eighteen overall. His combination of solid batting average
Speaker 1: and big counting stat numbers have made him a target
Speaker 1: for everyone. He becomes even more priority when experts start
Speaker 1: taking big power hitters early on with stolen bases, like Vlad,
Speaker 1: Freddy Freeman, or Austin Riley. That's why you and every
Speaker 1: somebody else wants Randy or Rosarina. Number seven Astros starting
Speaker 1: pitcher Christian Javier. Everybody is looking for the next Spencer Strider,
Speaker 1: and the answer for many experts is Christian Xavier. Like Strider,
Speaker 1: Javier is a mainly fastball slider pitcher. Javier had an
Speaker 1: eleven point seven to four K per nine in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, which he sported with a two point five
Speaker 1: to four ERA in one hundred and forty eight innings.
Speaker 1: If his innings can push to one point eighty, Javier's
Speaker 1: skill set could make him a top five sp in
Speaker 1: Fantasy baseball in twenty twenty three. He has a Fantasy
Speaker 1: pros ECR Rank Expert Consensus ranking of fifty four. That
Speaker 1: is a six plus differential from his ADP, so it's higher.
Speaker 1: He's also going fifty two on NFBC with a high
Speaker 1: of twenty five. If you want control thera on a
Speaker 1: great team with big strikeouts, like many experts, you want
Speaker 1: to look at Christian Javier. Who else are experts targeting?
Speaker 1: We've got more of that in just one second. But first,
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Speaker 1: to more players that experts are targeting that you need
Speaker 1: to know. Number six Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano. The
Speaker 1: loss of Edwin Diaz to the closer pool is going
Speaker 1: to be felt across all closers. Where Emmanuel Clausse jumps
Speaker 1: to the top spot and then Josh Hater is right
Speaker 1: behind him, Jordan Romano meets up middle ground still for
Speaker 1: so many wanting to jump into the upper tier closure pool.
Speaker 1: Romano saved thirty six games with a two pine one
Speaker 1: ERA in twenty twenty two. This coming year, he steps
Speaker 1: back into an uncontested closer role on a team that
Speaker 1: should provide plenty of opportunities in the Blue Jays, but
Speaker 1: not at the same cost as those top guys. Even
Speaker 1: with the loss of Edwin Diaz current fifty seven ECR
Speaker 1: versus his ADP, the rank is actually an eight plus deferential,
Speaker 1: so eight spots higher than his ADP is where the
Speaker 1: consensus rank is going. He's also got a high draft
Speaker 1: point of thirty five. That's the one that really wants closers,
Speaker 1: where you take those first couple closers though you're passing
Speaker 1: on incredible hitters, and that's why Romano allows you a
Speaker 1: better roster build while getting a lockdown closer. And that
Speaker 1: is why experts are targeting Romano instead of jumping in
Speaker 1: at the very very tippy top number five Cardinals outfielder,
Speaker 1: Yes Lars Newbar. I have been beating the drum about
Speaker 1: Lars Nubar this entire offseason a lot due to his
Speaker 1: continued work at Drive Line with hopes to optimize more
Speaker 1: barreling into those big evs. That is what he's done
Speaker 1: over the last two years, going to Drive Line, learning
Speaker 1: to hit the ball harder. This year it's been all
Speaker 1: about taking those hard evs and barreling them. This has
Speaker 1: all led to him becoming an expert favorite to fill
Speaker 1: out one of those outfield spots. The position itself kind
Speaker 1: of falls off in later rounds, and that's why it's
Speaker 1: exciting when you could find twenty homers and ten stolen
Speaker 1: bases post one p fifty. His overall ECR still sits
Speaker 1: at one eighty four, which is crazy to me, but
Speaker 1: with a high of twenty nine. Though if I'm being fair,
Speaker 1: that twenty nine on ECR might be me. He's a
Speaker 1: secret weapon. Most experts and analysts, though, are trying to
Speaker 1: get shares of in every draft, even if they're not named.
Speaker 1: Chris Welsh coming in at number four is Dodgers' first
Speaker 1: baseman Freddy Freeman. Most first round picks aren't relative to
Speaker 1: the draft position we as drafters own, but near the
Speaker 1: back end of the first round, or in a perfect world,
Speaker 1: the start of the second is where everybody wants Freddy Freeman.
Speaker 1: His power dipped a little bit last year, but he
Speaker 1: made up for it with a career high thirteen stolen
Speaker 1: bases and the second best batting average of his career
Speaker 1: at three twenty five. The term safe gets thrown around
Speaker 1: a ton, but there might not be a safer overall
Speaker 1: pick than Freddy Freeman. As Batex projections have him hitting
Speaker 1: three h five with twenty five homers, eleven stolen bases,
Speaker 1: and ninety nine runs with ninety five RBI. He's the
Speaker 1: highest player on this list, but once you get outside
Speaker 1: the top ten overall players, he's the guy that every
Speaker 1: expert is staring at. Number three. Angels outfielder Taylor Ward.
Speaker 1: Remember all the things I said about Lars Neubar a
Speaker 1: little bit ago, Well, take all of that and now
Speaker 1: put it in overdrive. That's Taylor Ward. I can safely
Speaker 1: say that he is the expert's expert pick of any
Speaker 1: player outside the top one hundred. Ward has an eleven
Speaker 1: plus positive differential between his ECR and his ADP, so
Speaker 1: that ECR rank is way higher than where he's actually going.
Speaker 1: If you take out catchers on Fantasy Pro's ECR, which
Speaker 1: those can be ranked a little bit higher for NFBC
Speaker 1: pushes them up or two catcher leagues. Only one other
Speaker 1: player outside the top one hundred has a higher individual
Speaker 1: rank than Taylor Ward. That person, by the way, is
Speaker 1: Glavor Torrez. Ward is projected for close to twenty five
Speaker 1: homers and ten stolen bases with a great batting average.
Speaker 1: I expect to see quite a few shares myself of
Speaker 1: Ward in the coming weeks. Number two is brave starting
Speaker 1: pitcher Spencer Streider. So how about the next Spencer Strider
Speaker 1: being Spencer Stryder. The conversation for Strider this year isn't
Speaker 1: really about will he repeat, but will he have the
Speaker 1: innings to become the number one pitcher in all of baseball?
Speaker 1: Strider had an over thirteen k per nine and no
Speaker 1: pitcher had less innings with two hundred plus strikeouts than Stryder,
Speaker 1: and I think that's by about forty innings. Hear a
Speaker 1: lot of people talk about how if Jacob de Gram
Speaker 1: pitches one hundred and forty innings he is the best
Speaker 1: pitcher in baseball. Well, many experts are taking the injury
Speaker 1: risk out that de Gram has and saying I'll take
Speaker 1: my chance with de Gram. Light in Spencer Strider. He
Speaker 1: currently has a twenty six ECR with an ADP on
Speaker 1: NFBC since March first of twenty five, which all has
Speaker 1: been an increase as the drafting season has gone on.
Speaker 1: If you can get Strider in the late second or
Speaker 1: early third round, you'll be walking hand in hand with
Speaker 1: what many experts are doing, and that leads us to
Speaker 1: the number one guy that all experts want a draft
Speaker 1: Number one Rangers shortstop Corey Seeger. Seeger was one of
Speaker 1: the ten most shifted players in all of twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1: He also just happened to have a career low babbit
Speaker 1: of two forty two, which, by the way, it had
Speaker 1: never been under three hundred in his career. Secer saw
Speaker 1: a seventy point increase also in his wOBA when he
Speaker 1: was not shifted on, which is why so many experts
Speaker 1: and drafters alike are storming to draft Corey Seeger this year.
Speaker 1: Now that the shift is banned. His current forty two
Speaker 1: ECR has a plus six differential versus his ADP, So again,
Speaker 1: this is a guy ranked higher than where he is going,
Speaker 1: and that forty two is also shown how rankers have
Speaker 1: become more aggressive versus even what's happening over in the NFBC,
Speaker 1: which is just about a full round higher than the
Speaker 1: average NFBC ADP. Shortstop feels deep, but there's a lot
Speaker 1: more risk near the end, and that's why many are
Speaker 1: trying to acquire this thirty plus home run hitter at
Speaker 1: shortstop who is a great batting average, And that's why
Speaker 1: Corey Seeger is the number one player experts are drafting.
Speaker 1: And those, my friends, are the twelve players that experts
Speaker 1: want in their leagues. Corby and Carrol, Joe Muskrove, Vinnie Pasquentino,
Speaker 1: Joe Ryan, Randy Roseraina, Christian Xavier, Jordan Romano, and then
Speaker 1: that top five large new bar Freddie Freeman, Taylor Ward, Spencer, Strider,
Speaker 1: and Corey Seeger. Who do you think the experts are
Speaker 1: wrong on? Or who do you love the most? You
Speaker 1: can go to the YouTube channel and you can comment.
Speaker 1: When you do so, you might also get yourself eligible
Speaker 1: to win that premium upgrade to Fantasy Pros when you
Speaker 1: do so, as long as you're also subscribed. Friends, I'm
Speaker 1: Chris Welsh and you can find me on Twitter at
Speaker 1: is it the Welsh to say, like all the nice
Speaker 1: things and shower me with praise. If you have something
Speaker 1: mean to say, find me on my other Twitter, Joe
Speaker 1: Piece of PS seventeen. All right, that'll do it for me,
Speaker 1: but I'll talk to you guys next time right here
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