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Speaker 1: Hello friends, and welcome back to Fantasy Pros. I'm Chris Welsh,

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Speaker 1: and today we're talking about the twelve players that experts

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Speaker 1: are drafting. Now before we get all experty, how would

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Speaker 1: you like to win a free one year premium upgrade

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Speaker 1: MLB YouTube channel right now and then comment on this

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Speaker 1: video that we're doing below, and that is it. Whether

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Speaker 1: you're looking for custom mock drafts, salary cap draft tools,

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Speaker 1: or in depth analysis of your fantasy performance, Fantasy Pros

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Speaker 1: dot com, slash premium and start playing smarter, not harder.

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Speaker 1: Who are the experts drafting? Well, I might have a

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Speaker 1: little insight on that, so let's take a look. Coming

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Speaker 1: in at number twelve, Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carrol, no surprise,

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Speaker 1: the masses would flock to the fastest man in base

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Speaker 1: a three point six six to ninety feet Corman. Carroll's

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Speaker 1: ADP is rising, but it's because the industry wants the

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Speaker 1: next big thing. Carrol's ECR on Fantasy Pros currently is

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Speaker 1: seventy six with a high of forty six, but since

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Speaker 1: March first over in the NFBC, Carrol has a fifty

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Speaker 1: six ADP and a high of thirty six. Carrol's projected

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Speaker 1: for thirteen homers and twenty one stolen bases on Batex projections,

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Speaker 1: but as a leadoff hitter for the Diamondbacks and a

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Speaker 1: new contract which lessens the risk of him being sent down,

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Speaker 1: experts are jumping on the opportunity to get a first

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Speaker 1: round talent in the fourth or fifth so even though

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Speaker 1: the price is rising, it hasn't stopped any experts. In fact,

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Speaker 1: it's because of them. Number eleven Padres starting pitcher Joe Muskrove. Now,

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Speaker 1: prior to Musgrove's injury, he was going around the seventies.

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Speaker 1: Muscrove fractured his toe and then his ADP fell down

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Speaker 1: into the late nineties or even in some spots the

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Speaker 1: one hundred range. His recovery, though, has been quick, and

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Speaker 1: it's possible he misses only one to two starts in season.

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Speaker 1: Musgrove is projected for a mid three ERA and a

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Speaker 1: huge rise in wins on the bat to twelve wins

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Speaker 1: even though his innings are just sitting at under one seventy.

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Speaker 1: This isn't an arm injury scare, which would usually make

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Speaker 1: experts run for the hills. In this case, they're taking

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Speaker 1: advantage of the value. Musgrove has an ECR high of sixty,

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Speaker 1: and if healthy, he'd be going two rounds higher than

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Speaker 1: he currently is. Number ten Royals first baseman Vinnie pass Quantino.

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Speaker 1: The top end of first base is weighted to the

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Speaker 1: big guys, then there's a big drop off that starts

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Speaker 1: to happen, and that's why Vinnie pas Quentino has become

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Speaker 1: a huge industry target. Past Quentino's projected the six best

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Speaker 1: batting average on Steamer at first base and one of

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Speaker 1: only three first basemen projected for twenty plus homers and

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Speaker 1: a two seventy five batting average or higher. The other

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Speaker 1: two first basemen you ask, Freddy Freeman and Vlad Guerrero Junior.

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Speaker 1: Vinnie hit two ninety five with ten homers in seventy

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Speaker 1: two games in twenty twenty two, and with the low

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Speaker 1: strikeout risk and high contact skills have made him an

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Speaker 1: expert target for almost every team. Number nine Twins starting

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Speaker 1: pitcher Joe Ryan. Adding velocity is like the core ingredient

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Speaker 1: for spring training hype for pitchers. Joe Ryan has done

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Speaker 1: just that while also throwing a new slider that's ingredient.

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Speaker 1: Number two. Ryan has a one thirty four ECR and

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros, which is a plus nine differential between his ADP,

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Speaker 1: so the ranks are going higher than where he's actually

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Speaker 1: being drafted. He also has a rank high of ninety one,

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Speaker 1: which that's actually higher than Nick Lodolo. Projections are incredibly favorable.

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Speaker 1: That actually looks similar to Joe Muscrow's numbers just in

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Speaker 1: a few less innings post one hundred. Starting pitchers are

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Speaker 1: an expert secret recipe, and Joe Ryan seems to be

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Speaker 1: one of those core pieces. Number eight Tampa Bay Ray's

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Speaker 1: outfielder Randy A. Rosarana. No one was more electric in

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Speaker 1: the later rounds of the day WBC than Randia rose Arena.

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Speaker 1: I will always remember that catch and then the mean mug.

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Speaker 1: He's coming off of a twenty thirty home under stolen

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Speaker 1: based season in projections, believe he's going to grow off

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Speaker 1: of those numbers. The bad x has him hitting the

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Speaker 1: exact same amount of homers twenty again, but he's up

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Speaker 1: to thirty five stolen bases, which is six in all

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Speaker 1: of baseball and third among outfielders. A thirty five ADP

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Speaker 1: seems to be a home as that's his Fantasy Pros

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Speaker 1: ECR and his NFBC ADP since March first. The difference

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Speaker 1: is people are reaching to get their guy. The highest

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Speaker 1: pick in NFBC in that same period was twenty three overall,

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Speaker 1: and one ranker on Fantasy Pros has put a rose

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Speaker 1: Arena at eighteen overall. His combination of solid batting average

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Speaker 1: and big counting stat numbers have made him a target

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Speaker 1: for everyone. He becomes even more priority when experts start

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Speaker 1: taking big power hitters early on with stolen bases, like Vlad,

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Speaker 1: Freddy Freeman, or Austin Riley. That's why you and every

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Speaker 1: somebody else wants Randy or Rosarina. Number seven Astros starting

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Speaker 1: pitcher Christian Javier. Everybody is looking for the next Spencer Strider,

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Speaker 1: and the answer for many experts is Christian Xavier. Like Strider,

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Speaker 1: Javier is a mainly fastball slider pitcher. Javier had an

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Speaker 1: eleven point seven to four K per nine in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two, which he sported with a two point five

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Speaker 1: to four ERA in one hundred and forty eight innings.

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Speaker 1: If his innings can push to one point eighty, Javier's

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Speaker 1: skill set could make him a top five sp in

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Speaker 1: Fantasy baseball in twenty twenty three. He has a Fantasy

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Speaker 1: pros ECR Rank Expert Consensus ranking of fifty four. That

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Speaker 1: is a six plus differential from his ADP, so it's higher.

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Speaker 1: He's also going fifty two on NFBC with a high

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Speaker 1: of twenty five. If you want control thera on a

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Speaker 1: great team with big strikeouts, like many experts, you want

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Speaker 1: to look at Christian Javier. Who else are experts targeting?

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Speaker 1: to more players that experts are targeting that you need

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Speaker 1: to know. Number six Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano. The

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Speaker 1: loss of Edwin Diaz to the closer pool is going

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Speaker 1: to be felt across all closers. Where Emmanuel Clausse jumps

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Speaker 1: to the top spot and then Josh Hater is right

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Speaker 1: behind him, Jordan Romano meets up middle ground still for

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Speaker 1: so many wanting to jump into the upper tier closure pool.

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Speaker 1: Romano saved thirty six games with a two pine one

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Speaker 1: ERA in twenty twenty two. This coming year, he steps

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Speaker 1: back into an uncontested closer role on a team that

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Speaker 1: should provide plenty of opportunities in the Blue Jays, but

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Speaker 1: not at the same cost as those top guys. Even

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Speaker 1: with the loss of Edwin Diaz current fifty seven ECR

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Speaker 1: versus his ADP, the rank is actually an eight plus deferential,

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Speaker 1: so eight spots higher than his ADP is where the

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Speaker 1: consensus rank is going. He's also got a high draft

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Speaker 1: point of thirty five. That's the one that really wants closers,

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Speaker 1: where you take those first couple closers though you're passing

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Speaker 1: on incredible hitters, and that's why Romano allows you a

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Speaker 1: better roster build while getting a lockdown closer. And that

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Speaker 1: is why experts are targeting Romano instead of jumping in

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Speaker 1: at the very very tippy top number five Cardinals outfielder,

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Speaker 1: Yes Lars Newbar. I have been beating the drum about

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Speaker 1: Lars Nubar this entire offseason a lot due to his

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Speaker 1: continued work at Drive Line with hopes to optimize more

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Speaker 1: barreling into those big evs. That is what he's done

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Speaker 1: over the last two years, going to Drive Line, learning

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Speaker 1: to hit the ball harder. This year it's been all

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Speaker 1: about taking those hard evs and barreling them. This has

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Speaker 1: all led to him becoming an expert favorite to fill

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Speaker 1: out one of those outfield spots. The position itself kind

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Speaker 1: of falls off in later rounds, and that's why it's

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Speaker 1: exciting when you could find twenty homers and ten stolen

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Speaker 1: bases post one p fifty. His overall ECR still sits

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Speaker 1: at one eighty four, which is crazy to me, but

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Speaker 1: with a high of twenty nine. Though if I'm being fair,

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Speaker 1: that twenty nine on ECR might be me. He's a

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Speaker 1: secret weapon. Most experts and analysts, though, are trying to

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Speaker 1: get shares of in every draft, even if they're not named.

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Speaker 1: Chris Welsh coming in at number four is Dodgers' first

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Speaker 1: baseman Freddy Freeman. Most first round picks aren't relative to

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Speaker 1: the draft position we as drafters own, but near the

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Speaker 1: back end of the first round, or in a perfect world,

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Speaker 1: the start of the second is where everybody wants Freddy Freeman.

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Speaker 1: His power dipped a little bit last year, but he

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Speaker 1: made up for it with a career high thirteen stolen

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Speaker 1: bases and the second best batting average of his career

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Speaker 1: at three twenty five. The term safe gets thrown around

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Speaker 1: a ton, but there might not be a safer overall

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Speaker 1: pick than Freddy Freeman. As Batex projections have him hitting

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Speaker 1: three h five with twenty five homers, eleven stolen bases,

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Speaker 1: and ninety nine runs with ninety five RBI. He's the

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Speaker 1: highest player on this list, but once you get outside

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Speaker 1: the top ten overall players, he's the guy that every

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Speaker 1: expert is staring at. Number three. Angels outfielder Taylor Ward.

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Speaker 1: Remember all the things I said about Lars Neubar a

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Speaker 1: little bit ago, Well, take all of that and now

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Speaker 1: put it in overdrive. That's Taylor Ward. I can safely

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Speaker 1: say that he is the expert's expert pick of any

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Speaker 1: player outside the top one hundred. Ward has an eleven

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Speaker 1: plus positive differential between his ECR and his ADP, so

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Speaker 1: that ECR rank is way higher than where he's actually going.

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Speaker 1: If you take out catchers on Fantasy Pro's ECR, which

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Speaker 1: those can be ranked a little bit higher for NFBC

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Speaker 1: pushes them up or two catcher leagues. Only one other

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Speaker 1: player outside the top one hundred has a higher individual

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Speaker 1: rank than Taylor Ward. That person, by the way, is

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Speaker 1: Glavor Torrez. Ward is projected for close to twenty five

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Speaker 1: homers and ten stolen bases with a great batting average.

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Speaker 1: I expect to see quite a few shares myself of

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Speaker 1: Ward in the coming weeks. Number two is brave starting

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Speaker 1: pitcher Spencer Streider. So how about the next Spencer Strider

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Speaker 1: being Spencer Stryder. The conversation for Strider this year isn't

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Speaker 1: really about will he repeat, but will he have the

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Speaker 1: innings to become the number one pitcher in all of baseball?

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Speaker 1: Strider had an over thirteen k per nine and no

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Speaker 1: pitcher had less innings with two hundred plus strikeouts than Stryder,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's by about forty innings. Hear a

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Speaker 1: lot of people talk about how if Jacob de Gram

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Speaker 1: pitches one hundred and forty innings he is the best

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Speaker 1: pitcher in baseball. Well, many experts are taking the injury

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Speaker 1: risk out that de Gram has and saying I'll take

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Speaker 1: my chance with de Gram. Light in Spencer Strider. He

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Speaker 1: currently has a twenty six ECR with an ADP on

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Speaker 1: NFBC since March first of twenty five, which all has

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Speaker 1: been an increase as the drafting season has gone on.

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Speaker 1: If you can get Strider in the late second or

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Speaker 1: early third round, you'll be walking hand in hand with

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Speaker 1: what many experts are doing, and that leads us to

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Speaker 1: the number one guy that all experts want a draft

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Speaker 1: Number one Rangers shortstop Corey Seeger. Seeger was one of

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Speaker 1: the ten most shifted players in all of twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: He also just happened to have a career low babbit

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Speaker 1: of two forty two, which, by the way, it had

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Speaker 1: never been under three hundred in his career. Secer saw

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Speaker 1: a seventy point increase also in his wOBA when he

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Speaker 1: was not shifted on, which is why so many experts

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Speaker 1: and drafters alike are storming to draft Corey Seeger this year.

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Speaker 1: Now that the shift is banned. His current forty two

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Speaker 1: ECR has a plus six differential versus his ADP, So again,

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Speaker 1: this is a guy ranked higher than where he is going,

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Speaker 1: and that forty two is also shown how rankers have

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Speaker 1: become more aggressive versus even what's happening over in the NFBC,

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Speaker 1: which is just about a full round higher than the

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Speaker 1: average NFBC ADP. Shortstop feels deep, but there's a lot

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Speaker 1: more risk near the end, and that's why many are

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Speaker 1: trying to acquire this thirty plus home run hitter at

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Speaker 1: shortstop who is a great batting average, And that's why

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Speaker 1: Corey Seeger is the number one player experts are drafting.

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Speaker 1: And those, my friends, are the twelve players that experts

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Speaker 1: want in their leagues. Corby and Carrol, Joe Muskrove, Vinnie Pasquentino,

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Speaker 1: Joe Ryan, Randy Roseraina, Christian Xavier, Jordan Romano, and then

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Speaker 1: that top five large new bar Freddie Freeman, Taylor Ward, Spencer, Strider,

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Speaker 1: and Corey Seeger. Who do you think the experts are

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Speaker 1: wrong on? Or who do you love the most? You

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Speaker 1: can go to the YouTube channel and you can comment.

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Speaker 1: When you do so, you might also get yourself eligible

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Speaker 1: to win that premium upgrade to Fantasy Pros when you

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Speaker 1: do so, as long as you're also subscribed. Friends, I'm

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Speaker 1: Chris Welsh and you can find me on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: is it the Welsh to say, like all the nice

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Speaker 1: things and shower me with praise. If you have something

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Speaker 1: mean to say, find me on my other Twitter, Joe

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Speaker 1: Piece of PS seventeen. All right, that'll do it for me,

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Speaker 1: but I'll talk to you guys next time right here

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Speaker 1: on Fantasy Pros. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros

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Speaker 1: Baseball podcast. Follow up us on Twitter at Fantasy Pros MLB,

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Speaker 1: and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com

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Speaker 1: slash Fantasy Pros MLB