WEBVTT - The countries plotting the end of the fossil-fuel era 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:04.360 Welcome to zero I am Akshatrati this week farewell to 0:00:04.400 --> 0:00:20.639 fossil fuels. At the United Nations Climate Summit in Dubai 0:00:20.680 --> 0:00:24.720 in December twenty twenty three, all countries committed to transitioning 0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:28.880 away from fossil fuels, and yet in the years since 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:33.280 there has been little progress. So there was a renewed 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:36.560 push last year at COP thirty one in Brazil, more 0:00:36.600 --> 0:00:39.960 than eighty countries got together to seek a commitment to 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:43.600 develop road maps to phase out fossil fuels. But even 0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:46.479 then they could not get it into the final agreement. 0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:50.920 So finally, out of frustration, these countries created their own 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:53.400 forum to find ways to make progress. 0:00:54.520 --> 0:00:58.520 This was the first conference where you have sixty countries, academics, scientists, 0:00:58.600 --> 0:01:02.400 indigenous people, civil society unions at the table, business leaders, 0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:05.399 and you're not talking about whether fossil fuel face that 0:01:05.440 --> 0:01:06.920 needs to happen. You're talking about. 0:01:06.640 --> 0:01:10.800 How Sibora Berman is the chair of the Fossil Fuel 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:15.119 Non Proliferation Treaty Initiative and the conference she's talking about 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:19.240 took place in Santa Marta in Colombia in April. It 0:01:19.319 --> 0:01:23.360 was the inaugural conference on Transitioning Away from fossil fuels, 0:01:23.959 --> 0:01:28.240 and it looked to answer some practical questions. How exactly 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:31.920 can a country like Colombia, dependent on fossil fuels for 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:36.720 its economic development start to face down its extraction. What 0:01:36.880 --> 0:01:41.360 happens to fossil fuel import dependent countries like France when 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:45.560 this phase down begins. Ministers and climate on voys from 0:01:45.600 --> 0:01:48.960 fifty seven countries showed up to try to find answers, 0:01:49.560 --> 0:01:53.440 and Berman says that the fossil fuels supply shock created 0:01:53.480 --> 0:01:56.760 by the Iran War made the resolve of many of 0:01:56.760 --> 0:02:00.800 these countries in attendance a lot stronger. So this week 0:02:00.800 --> 0:02:04.480 on Zero I asked Subora what did the conference achieve, 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:08.560 why she believes this kind of conference can succeed where 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:13.000 cop summits have not, and what would convince a country 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:16.480 like Saudi Arabia to give up on its fossil fuels. 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:19.840 As always, if you have feedback for the show, please 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:23.080 email us at Zero Pod at Bloomberg dot net. Here's 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:35.760 my conversation with Siborah Berman. Welcome to the show, Supporah Berman. 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:36.360 Thanks for having me. 0:02:36.680 --> 0:02:39.519 So it's been nearly a month since the first conference 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:43.200 on the Transition away from fossil fuels, concluded in Santa 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:46.839 Marta in Columbia, and it's been nearly three months since 0:02:46.880 --> 0:02:51.200 the war on Iran began. Fossil fuels and our dependence 0:02:51.240 --> 0:02:54.560 on them is very much the central issue right now. 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:57.320 But before we talk about all of it, tell the 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:00.320 listeners a little bit about your journey working on climate 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:03.440 and energy issues. What got you to this point. 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:06.880 Well, I really started my journey in the Canadian oil 0:03:06.919 --> 0:03:10.880 sands because I'm Canadian, and for many years I was 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:14.400 working on forest conservation and the trade of wooden paper products. Actually, 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:17.840 and I actually remember the moment when I decided I 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:20.440 had to start working on climate change and fossil fuels. 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:23.760 There was a map came across my desk of millions 0:03:23.760 --> 0:03:26.880 of hectors of forests that were dying in Canada as 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:32.400 a result of beetlekill and fires. And I remember that moment, thinking, God, 0:03:32.480 --> 0:03:34.960 I so in my entire adult life trying to protect 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:39.280 these old growth forests from industrial logging, and now they're 0:03:39.280 --> 0:03:41.960 going up in flame or they're being eaten by beetles, 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:45.640 you know, because beetles used to die at a certain 0:03:45.680 --> 0:03:49.840 temperature and now they don't because it's warmer. And it 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:52.560 was at that moment that I realized, you know, in 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:55.320 my head, I worked on forest conservation and other people 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:58.480 worked on climate change, and I realized, no, I need 0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:01.080 to start working on climate change. These issues, as you 0:04:01.120 --> 0:04:03.960 know better than most, are super complicated. But what's not 0:04:04.080 --> 0:04:07.080 complicated is, you know, there are three things causing eighty 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:09.400 six percent of the carbon trapped in our atmosphere. It's oil, 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:11.960 gas and coal. In Canada at the time had a 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:14.760 prime minister, Prime Minister Harper, who was determined to make 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:17.240 Canada and oil superpower. Is going to triple the size 0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:20.400 of the oil sands. He had proposed five different pipelines. 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:24.920 And so I started at home, really actually started around 0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:26.800 forest because of course to get it the oil, they 0:04:26.800 --> 0:04:29.400 have to cut down all the forests. But my time 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:33.320 in the oil sands made me realize that no country 0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:35.640 is going to do this alone. Even when we got 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:38.520 a new administration, the Trudeau administration, and you know, Trudeau 0:04:38.560 --> 0:04:41.000 came to Paris with his hand on his heart Canada's 0:04:41.000 --> 0:04:43.440 back and started putting in place a lot of really 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:46.760 good policies, but on the demand side, to reduce the demand, 0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:50.360 to reduce the emissions. And it didn't make sense to 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:52.800 me because demand is not Canada's problem. We don't have 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:55.159 that big of a population. It's the fact that we 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:58.440 produce so much very heavy carbon oil, as you know, 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:02.120 and it's being export And so I started asking the question, 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:05.400 what about production? Are we constraining supply? How do we 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:07.800 do fossil fuel phase out if we're growing the problem? 0:05:08.040 --> 0:05:10.120 And for a long time, you know, I got a 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:12.279 lot of pats on the head. You don't really understand 0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:14.919 climate policy, and it didn't make any sense to me. 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:17.000 So I started looking around and trying to figure out 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:19.280 what are other countries doing that are big supply side 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:22.279 fossil fuel producers. You know, what's Norway doing, you know 0:05:22.360 --> 0:05:27.359 what's Argentina doing, what's happening across Africa? And as I 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:32.200 started reaching out to academics around the world and climate 0:05:32.240 --> 0:05:35.120 policy experts around the world, I realized that there was 0:05:35.160 --> 0:05:39.280 this just this huge gap that fossil fuel supply and 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:43.960 production and constraining production was not on the table either 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:47.599 in the climate negotiations or in climate policy. And that's 0:05:47.960 --> 0:05:50.839 when I started organizing and started thinking about how do 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:53.120 you do fossil fuel phase out? And can you get 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:57.119 countries to cooperate? You know, as the TRADEAU administration told me, Yes, 0:05:57.160 --> 0:05:59.120 we need to phase out fossil fuels, but as long 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:01.640 as the world uses oil, it might as well be ours. 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:04.479 But every country wants to be the last barrel sold. 0:06:04.720 --> 0:06:07.320 This is something that you know, we've talked about in 0:06:07.360 --> 0:06:10.320 the context of the climate summits, the COP meetings for 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:13.880 a long time that we've had thirty years of these meetings. 0:06:13.920 --> 0:06:17.480 It really took until twenty twenty three, and until COP 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:20.560 twenty eight to even get the mention of fossil fuels 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:23.920 in a consensus driven document that assigned at the end 0:06:23.960 --> 0:06:27.760 of it. And of course we've known about the science 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:31.600 that fossil fuel consumption must be reduced to address climate 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:34.240 change for much longer than thirty years. Why is it 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:37.800 that it took until twenty twenty six for a global 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:41.960 conference where governments, okay, not all government but a lot 0:06:41.960 --> 0:06:46.320 of governments, something like sixty countries came together to finally 0:06:46.480 --> 0:06:49.760 talk about transitioning away from fossil fuels. What was it 0:06:49.960 --> 0:06:53.920 that was needed to make this meeting in Santa Marta happen. 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:56.760 There's not one thing that was needed. It was a 0:06:56.760 --> 0:07:00.320 lot of things, and it's been shifting over were the 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:04.280 last five years. I would say probably since the Glasgow 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:07.360 cop Actually, our first campaign of the Fossil Fuel Treaty 0:07:07.520 --> 0:07:09.720 at Glasgow was it's time to say the f words. 0:07:09.720 --> 0:07:12.840 At cop the words oil, gas and coal. Fossil fuels 0:07:12.840 --> 0:07:16.560 don't even appear in the Paris Agreement these it's not 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:20.160 In some ways it's not a surprise that this was 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:23.120 a plan by the oil and gas industry, the most 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:25.760 powerful and one of the most profitable industries in the 0:07:25.800 --> 0:07:30.360 history of the world, to ensure that they wouldn't be 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:34.880 faced with production constraints because that's their bottom line, right, 0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:37.000 That's how they make them that's how they make those 0:07:37.240 --> 0:07:40.680 crazy profits two point eight billion dollars a day every 0:07:40.760 --> 0:07:43.640 day for the last fifty years. And they were protecting 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:48.600 those profits and overwhelming the climate negotiations and climate policy 0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:53.000 spaces with a framework that was about technology. We can 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:55.960 just put in place some technologies and reduce emissions, preparel 0:07:56.040 --> 0:07:59.160 and we're gonna be fine. And I think it led 0:07:59.200 --> 0:08:04.760 to a real group think, a really warped approach. An 0:08:04.800 --> 0:08:07.400 economist would say, you can't cut something with one half 0:08:07.440 --> 0:08:10.880 of the scissors, and demand is one side and supply 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:13.800 is the other half. We need to also cut supply, 0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:16.480 especially given the position that we're in. And so over 0:08:16.520 --> 0:08:19.160 the last five years we've seen that conversation grow within 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:22.560 COPS but stagnate. And I think the tipping point that 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:27.480 led to this conference was the moment in blem when 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:32.240 countries realized that despite all their efforts, despite eighty countries 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:35.200 signing onto the fossil fuel phase out commitment in Belem, 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:39.559 despite a call for a production of road maps on 0:08:39.760 --> 0:08:42.520 fossil fuel phase out, they were not going to get 0:08:42.559 --> 0:08:46.760 anything significant or a plan in that agreement. And that's 0:08:46.800 --> 0:08:50.200 because the UN process and the COPS are by consensus. 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:53.839 That was by design. Thirty years ago. Saudi Arabia put 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:56.319 that on the table and insisted on it. And so 0:08:56.480 --> 0:08:59.640 when you have a consensus based process, you end up 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:04.000 with vested interest being able to weaken the outcomes. And 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:08.839 so when Columbia proposed this conference and Netherlands agreed to 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:12.680 co host it outside the UN process, a diplomatic space, 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:16.040 but outside the UN process without some of the big 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:20.440 producers who have held these negotiations back, without them even present, 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:24.160 and no fossil fuel lobbyists present, you know a lot 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:26.679 of people said, Okay, let's try it, and when that 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:29.520 conference was announced at Belam, there was a huge standing 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:30.440 ovation on the floor. 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:34.640 This conference happens in Santa Marta in April twenty twenty six, 0:09:35.360 --> 0:09:39.040 and you know, about sixty countries show up. But my 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:42.280 understanding is that more countries would have showed up if 0:09:42.360 --> 0:09:45.920 there was, as some perceived, a threat of a treaty 0:09:46.040 --> 0:09:49.079 to be signed at the end of this. So I 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:52.720 know that the conference was focused on figuring out how 0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:56.040 countries and how the world can transition away from fossil fuels. 0:09:56.320 --> 0:10:00.400 But you represent the Fossil Fuel Nonproliferation treat which is 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:05.319 a separate but a related initiative. Talk me through what 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:08.520 this treaty is and why some countries bolt at the 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:10.480 fact that, oh, we don't want to sign another treaty, 0:10:10.640 --> 0:10:12.439 hence we are not showing up at Santa Marta. 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:15.520 First of all, this conference wouldn't have happened without the 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:18.040 Fossil Field Treaty, and I think that's important to understand. 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:22.719 The idea actually was proposed almost two years ago at 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:26.440 the ministerial meeting of a fossil Fossil Field Treaty meeting. 0:10:27.000 --> 0:10:29.599 So the countries who are participating in the development of 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:32.319 the treaty, which is right now eighteen nation states and 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:36.720 there's another ten coming as observers into the technical meetings 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:40.199 and the ministerial meetings. At that conference, it was proposed 0:10:40.600 --> 0:10:44.000 a standalone diplomatic conference on fossil fuel phase out, and 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:46.600 it was based on historical analysis because when you look 0:10:46.600 --> 0:10:49.959 at landmines, when you look at chemical weapons, nuclear a 0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:52.400 lot of these issues that were in transigent inside the 0:10:52.520 --> 0:10:57.440 UN system had separate outside processes and then developed treaties 0:10:57.559 --> 0:11:00.160 and then were brought back inside the UN system. So 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:03.319 the Ottawa Convention that Canada hosted on land mines, which 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:06.240 eventually led to the Landmine Treaty. So it was based 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:09.600 on that history that we put together a proposal and said, look, 0:11:09.679 --> 0:11:12.480 we need a separate process in order to start developing 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:16.760 this idea. And then Columbia announced it actually at Climate 0:11:16.800 --> 0:11:19.320 Week last year, and then and the Netherlin's joined them 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:21.679 as co hosts in Belem and it became a different conference. 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:23.880 So the conference was not about the fossil Fuel Treaty. 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:26.520 It was about fossil fuel phase out, but certainly the 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:29.800 fossil Fuel Treaty is one track of the discussions. There 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:34.240 were also talks about subsidies. There were talks about the ISDS, 0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:40.160 trade agreements and other barriers to fossil fuel phase out, 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:42.360 but fossil Fuel Treaty was one part of the conference. 0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:46.679 It's true that some of the countries, specifically you know, 0:11:46.760 --> 0:11:50.000 global North countries, have said that they don't need a 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:54.480 new treaty, that that scares them, and I think we 0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:58.480 need to ask why they're scared to have new global 0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:03.319 governance mechanisms that might be legally binding and cooperation on 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:07.319 fossil fuel phase out. The Fossil Field Treaty is about 0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:13.679 countries coordinating together to create shared timelines, and there's a 0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:17.280 couple of reasons why that's critical. One is because of 0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:20.959 the governance gap. I mean, if you don't have that, 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:23.840 what you have is countries creating their own national phase 0:12:23.880 --> 0:12:27.280 out plans. The moment we're in demands more than that. 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:34.319 And if we only have voluntary agreements, then you don't 0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:38.640 have equity, for example, built into those agreements. The wealthy 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:40.840 countries in the North, they can produce their own phase 0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:44.000 out plans, sure the majority of the world can't do it. 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:47.319 And when Columbia joined the treaty, this is a really 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:50.160 important point actually because Columbia joined the treaty and President 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:52.959 Petro said, we're one of the largest coal exporterers in 0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:55.760 the world. Every day we're making the problem worse because 0:12:56.160 --> 0:12:59.400 we can't stop, and we can't stop unless we have 0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:04.560 that are frameworks, international cooperation, new financial systems, because there 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:06.760 are a lot of countries out there that are dramatically 0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:09.880 increasing fossil fuel production just to feed their debt. So 0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:11.240 this is about finance. 0:13:11.760 --> 0:13:15.480 You talked about how there are barriers to getting a 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:20.400 transitioning away from fossil fuel agreement among countries. The one 0:13:20.480 --> 0:13:23.160 that we've talked plenty about on this podcast is the 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:26.520 fossil fuel industry and many of the oil producing nations 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:29.280 that have very powerful lobbies. But you said there are 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:32.199 other issues. There are trade issues, their debt issues. Talk 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:35.280 us through those issues that came up at this meeting 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:40.040 and what was the sort of path forward that countries 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:40.599 were pointing to. 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:43.840 When you start looking at the barriers to fossil fuel 0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:47.240 face it, what you see is that there are financial 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:51.760 and structural barriers that are pushing countries into greater production, 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:55.839 and that the system it doesn't you know, it benefits 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:59.000 the countries and the global North and the countries who 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:03.360 are historically and they have had a real economic leg 0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:06.640 up as a result of the fossil fuel industry. So 0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:10.400 when you look at analysis of how fast countries need 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:13.640 to stop expansion and wind down, I mean globally, we 0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:16.240 need to stop expansion now, and the science is very 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:19.440 clear we need absolute emissions and production to climb now 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:23.280 because we already have enough oil, gas and coal underproduction 0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:26.120 on the surface of the planet or fields that are 0:14:26.520 --> 0:14:30.160 that are being used to take us well past two degrees. 0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:35.480 So how quickly does the UK or Canada wind down 0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:39.760 versus Nigeria or a country that is very dependent on 0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:43.680 fossil fuel revenues for a huge component of their GDP 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:47.120 or to meet their debt, and debt emerged in Santa 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:51.120 Marta as an absolutely critical issue because there are just 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:55.520 so many countries that are planning new fossil fuel production. 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:59.200 And many of these are developing countries in Africa. So 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:02.400 you know, one statistic here on debt, for example, is 0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:05.920 that in twenty twenty five, African economies spent as much 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:09.720 as sixteen percent of their export in earnings on servicing debt. 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:15.040 And these are places, many of them highly indebted and 0:15:15.680 --> 0:15:19.400 looking to find ways to reduce their debt, thus developing 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:22.280 new projects, which from an equity perspective you would say 0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:24.880 is the right thing for them to do. But how 0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:28.000 do you square the circle in a way that would 0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:31.040 allow them to actually transition away from fossil fuels and 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:35.880 grow economically, which is something that they desperately want. 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:40.120 You find ways to relieve that debt because they need 0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:44.160 the space, the financial space, and the time to do 0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:48.720 economic diversification and competitiveness studies and replace those export revenues 0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:53.560 with something else. This year, for example, the IMF required 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:56.680 several countries to show that they were going to increase 0:15:56.840 --> 0:16:01.320 fossil fuel production in order to receive their loans. And 0:16:01.480 --> 0:16:04.440 even the climate finance grants that you're seeing out there, 0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:07.840 the Green Climate Fund, et cetera, is often loans instead 0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:11.000 of grants. Let's look at renewable energy. People say, well, 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:13.720 they could just invest in renewable energy instead, but the 0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:16.480 majority of the capital that's going into renewable energy is 0:16:16.560 --> 0:16:18.840 not good. Ninety eight percent last year didn't go to 0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:21.640 the Global South because of interest rates. So you have 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:23.920 to deal with some of these financial structures. So what's 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:26.440 on the table at the Fossil Fuel Treaty that countries 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:30.480 are considering. One is debt swaps, and we've done a 0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:33.520 deep dive with some energy finance experts from the Global 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:35.480 South into looking at what would that look like, what 0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:38.440 would a debt for renewables swap look like. The other 0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:42.760 big one that's emerging is debt resolution facilities supporting the 0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:48.800 countries to actually assess historical debts which are often much 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:53.120 higher than they should be, and to renegotiate debts. Then 0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:57.720 there's debt suspension or even debt cancelation. These issues are 0:16:57.960 --> 0:17:01.920 absolutely critical for countries to operate on in order to 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:05.040 relieve that pressure valve to be able to give countries 0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:08.639 the space to stop expanding the problem. So in the 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:11.800 Fossil Fuel Treaty, what we're doing is putting in front 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:16.879 of the countries some refined proposals on debt, but also 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:21.200 on new forms of investment in trade and different ways 0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:24.239 for them to cooperate to replace fossil fuel revenues at 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:29.080 scale and speed, like buyers clubs, divestment of sovereign wealth funds, 0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:34.200 and then on the investment in trade, looking at some 0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:39.320 really interesting options for international taxes and levies. Some of 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:41.680 these mechanisms are going to be essential. 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:48.680 After the break, I asked Sabora what happens next and 0:17:48.840 --> 0:17:53.520 why China wasn't invited to the conference, And Hey, if 0:17:53.560 --> 0:17:55.640 you like what you're listening to and want to help 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:59.040 support zero, take a couple of minutes, give us a reading, 0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:02.920 write you share this episode with someone else we think 0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:06.200 might enjoy it. It helps new listeners find the show. 0:18:06.480 --> 0:18:23.640 Thank you. What happens next? This meeting concluded? Was there 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:26.960 anything more concrete that you think came out of this 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:28.840 meeting and what happens next? 0:18:29.000 --> 0:18:31.200 I think there's a number of concrete things, and it's 0:18:31.240 --> 0:18:34.240 not going to be that this the plan for a 0:18:34.280 --> 0:18:36.399 global fossil fuel phase out is not going to live 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:39.640 in one place. It's not going to be one one 0:18:39.720 --> 0:18:43.520 tool or one agreement. And so I'm really excited about 0:18:43.680 --> 0:18:47.840 is what we felt in Santa Marta, what you saw 0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:51.359 on people's faces, Like it's hard to describe now a 0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:55.640 month out, but the fact is that for all this time, 0:18:57.080 --> 0:18:59.480 if there was a discussion about fossil fuel phase out, 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:02.480 it was about arguments of whether it needed to happen. 0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:06.919 This was the first conference where you have sixty countries, academics, scientists, 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:10.720 indigenous people, civil society unions, at the table, business leaders, 0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:13.760 and you're not talking about weather, fossil fuel face that 0:19:13.840 --> 0:19:16.080 needs to happen. You're talking about how and so what 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:20.080 came out of that is a commitment to continue the process. 0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:24.480 So that's really important. Continue the diplomatic conference convening countries 0:19:24.600 --> 0:19:28.240 and having these conversations outside the UN space, and Tuvalu 0:19:28.400 --> 0:19:31.800 and Ireland agreed to host the second conference in twenty 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:35.080 twenty seven and preparations are already underway for that conference. 0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:40.240 But secondly, there were outcomes that were proposed by the 0:19:40.359 --> 0:19:44.080 existing chairs, Colombia and the Netherlands, and some of those 0:19:44.160 --> 0:19:48.440 will live back inside the COT processes, and that's good. 0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:51.680 It's not going to live in one place. So there 0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:54.960 will be more national road maps and many countries committed 0:19:55.000 --> 0:19:58.520 to doing those, and I think that process will likely 0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:02.080 happen more in with support from the Brazilian roadmap process 0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:06.320 inside the COP process as part of countries and DC's 0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:09.560 as part of the global stock take, individual countries are 0:20:09.600 --> 0:20:13.600 going to start putting forward their roadmaps and increasing ambition 0:20:13.720 --> 0:20:17.600 on fossil fuel phase out. I think that this conference 0:20:18.240 --> 0:20:21.159 has changed the game. It is kind of the antidote 0:20:21.400 --> 0:20:24.680 to the climate hoax. Drill baby, drill noise we're hearing 0:20:24.880 --> 0:20:27.679 from the United States. It's country saying yes, we're going 0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:30.040 to work on fossil fuel phase out. We're going to 0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:32.160 do it in several different places. 0:20:32.760 --> 0:20:36.240 And this conference was planned before, obviously the war started, 0:20:36.560 --> 0:20:40.679 and the wars put the conversation around dependence on fossil fuels, 0:20:40.800 --> 0:20:46.280 especially on the importing countries most affected by it, even higher. 0:20:46.840 --> 0:20:49.840 Did that change a dynamic of this conference? Do you 0:20:49.960 --> 0:20:51.040 think hugely? 0:20:51.680 --> 0:20:54.040 You know that the crisis in the strait of Hormos 0:20:54.760 --> 0:20:57.879 isn't a disruption of the system. It's a revelation of 0:20:57.920 --> 0:21:02.480 how broken the system already is. And so it didn't 0:21:02.560 --> 0:21:05.879 weaken the case for phase out. It made it undeniable. 0:21:06.200 --> 0:21:10.280 It made it an emergency meeting in so many ways. 0:21:10.560 --> 0:21:14.600 And fossil fuel phase out was already an urgent climate priority, 0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:18.439 but it became an urgent economic necessity, particularly for Global 0:21:18.480 --> 0:21:23.360 South economies and major fossil fuel importers, countries with limited reserves, 0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:28.200 and it became for most countries an issue of economic 0:21:28.440 --> 0:21:32.320 and national security. I saw tip for the first time 0:21:32.520 --> 0:21:35.159 where you saw a lot of countries, especially the countries 0:21:35.200 --> 0:21:40.520 who are dependent on importing fossil fuels, start to recognize 0:21:40.640 --> 0:21:46.000 that fossil fuel expansion wasn't a development opportunity. It would 0:21:46.080 --> 0:21:47.320 lead to more dependency. 0:21:47.880 --> 0:21:49.800 But it's not like a country came out and said, 0:21:50.040 --> 0:21:53.320 you know, we do have fossil fuels. This shows us 0:21:53.359 --> 0:21:55.919 our dependence and we are actually not going to expand 0:21:55.920 --> 0:21:58.960 our fossil fuels. No developing country has done so so far. 0:21:59.320 --> 0:22:02.960 Do you expect yes, I mean, first of all, yes, 0:22:03.080 --> 0:22:07.000 Colombia has exactly done that. Columbia said we know, we 0:22:07.160 --> 0:22:08.320 need to stop expanding. 0:22:08.640 --> 0:22:13.000 Colombia is also about to have an election where there 0:22:13.080 --> 0:22:17.040 is a very strong likelihood that Gustavo Petro's policies which 0:22:17.680 --> 0:22:20.239 lead to the point of fossil fuel phase out, may 0:22:20.320 --> 0:22:23.520 be reversed because the winds are political winds up blowing 0:22:23.640 --> 0:22:26.399 in the opposite direction. So is the one country, but 0:22:26.760 --> 0:22:29.639 it's the one country that may also become the exception 0:22:30.520 --> 0:22:31.640 to the exception. 0:22:31.600 --> 0:22:34.159 It is, and that's in part because we're seeing enormous 0:22:34.200 --> 0:22:37.399 amounts of fear mongering around price and scarcity, which is 0:22:37.520 --> 0:22:41.080 what you see from the fossil fuel industry and advertising 0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:44.160 and in political spaces, and so yes, we will see 0:22:44.200 --> 0:22:47.360 what happens in Colombia. But we also heard many other 0:22:47.440 --> 0:22:53.440 countries from the floor, African nations in Nigeria for example, 0:22:55.080 --> 0:22:58.440 you know, saying that recognizing the need for phase out 0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:03.280 and saying we would like to do this, but we can't. 0:23:03.880 --> 0:23:08.439 And that's exactly why you need international cooperation and new 0:23:08.520 --> 0:23:12.359 global governance mechanisms for countries to cooperate to change the system, 0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:15.600 to support each other to ensure that it's possible. 0:23:15.680 --> 0:23:19.040 And Nigeria is also talking about joining the International Energy Agency, 0:23:19.160 --> 0:23:21.480 so it is part of OPEQ right now, but it 0:23:21.560 --> 0:23:23.760 also wants to be part of the International Energy Agency, 0:23:23.800 --> 0:23:26.120 which of course is focused not just on the oil side, 0:23:26.160 --> 0:23:29.560 but also on the transition. Now, one country that was 0:23:29.800 --> 0:23:33.840 missing at this meeting was China. Now it is the 0:23:33.880 --> 0:23:37.400 world's largest polluter, of course, a huge fossil fuel extractor 0:23:37.520 --> 0:23:39.600 in coal, doesn't have that much oil and gas. It 0:23:39.640 --> 0:23:41.240 does have oil and gas, but not that much. 0:23:41.520 --> 0:23:43.840 It is financing oil and gas around the world though 0:23:44.000 --> 0:23:44.280 it is. 0:23:44.520 --> 0:23:47.679 But it has also done the most to tackle climate 0:23:47.760 --> 0:23:51.880 change by building all these next generation industries that would 0:23:51.920 --> 0:23:54.560 give it a trade edge. You know, it is the 0:23:54.680 --> 0:23:58.680