WEBVTT - NFL Super Bowl Game Lines Reactions (Ep. 46)

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<v Speaker 1>Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.

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<v Speaker 1>You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Ady

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<v Speaker 1>Championship weekend is done and is on to the Super Bowl,

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<v Speaker 1>which should, as usual, be a monstrous event for sports betters.

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<v Speaker 1>But with me to break down all things NFL is

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<v Speaker 1>Rich Ryan, host of the Gridiron Damble Podcast. You can

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<v Speaker 1>find Rich on Twitter at rich t Ryan Rich. How

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<v Speaker 1>is your Sunday? It was Okay.

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<v Speaker 2>We're gonna do our damn nest here to make this

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<v Speaker 2>podcast more entertaining than the two games that we just saw.

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<v Speaker 2>I feel almost as bad for the viewers as I

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<v Speaker 2>do for the very tall, very luxurious buildings in Las Vegas,

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<v Speaker 2>because I think I can see from here large fires.

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<v Speaker 2>I think I can see things crumbling to the ground

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<v Speaker 2>because both big favorites, both overs coming in not a

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<v Speaker 2>good day for our friends in the desert.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, legitimately, number one, I thought there were actual fires,

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<v Speaker 1>and I got nervous for a second when you started talking.

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<v Speaker 1>And second, I mean I agree that the Sunday as

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<v Speaker 1>a whole was not that exciting, except for the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that right before we started recording, Rich dropped like six

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<v Speaker 1>things on his soundboard and they were just random like

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<v Speaker 1>dollar signs, cash registered things going on there. You see,

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<v Speaker 1>he's got it all. He's got it all ready to go. Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you thought like, oh man, that Sunday was

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<v Speaker 1>so boring from a betting perspective, it's all right, We're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna make it all okay. Now, like last week, we're

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<v Speaker 1>recording this on Sunday night, and immediately after the Sunday

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<v Speaker 1>night game last week. I need a little bit of

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<v Speaker 1>time just to break down what happened on that game

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<v Speaker 1>in this one. This game, the Packers forty nine Ers

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<v Speaker 1>game was over, I don't know, twenty minutes into it,

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<v Speaker 1>so we've had a lot of time to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>think on it. Still, the lines for the Super Bowl

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<v Speaker 1>have been up for about forty five seconds. For me,

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<v Speaker 1>that's when it's fun. We've got two weeks to dissect

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<v Speaker 1>this game. We're going to break down all the angles,

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<v Speaker 1>the player props, how long the national anthem is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be, all that stuff. But being able to see

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<v Speaker 1>how everything strikes us in the moment with today's games

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<v Speaker 1>fresh in our minds without much time to break it down.

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<v Speaker 1>That's when it's good. Sometimes your instant reaction turns out

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<v Speaker 1>to be the best. So, Richard, shall we dive right in.

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, I've been grinding Demi Lovado National Anthem tape, getting

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<v Speaker 2>my hands on anything I can find for that problem.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the reason why we bring you back on

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<v Speaker 1>this podcast, rich But let's start with today's action. Chiefs

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<v Speaker 1>thirty five Titans twenty four. This game look like it

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<v Speaker 1>might go a bit differently here at the start, Titan

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<v Speaker 1>said leads of ten to nothing and seventeen to seven

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<v Speaker 1>in the end. The Chiefs offense just way too much.

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<v Speaker 1>Patrick Mahomes throws for two hundred and ninety four yards

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<v Speaker 1>and three touchdowns, two to Tyreek Hill, won a gorgeous

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<v Speaker 1>sixty yard bomb to Sammy Watkins. He also runs into

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<v Speaker 1>score on a preposterous twenty seven yard run toward the

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<v Speaker 1>end of the first half. Everyone talks about how exciting

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<v Speaker 1>and dynamic Lamar Jacks and is, and he is, but

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a healthy Patrick Mahomes is nearly as exciting. Meanwhile,

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<v Speaker 1>the Chiefs defense does the one thing that nobody's been

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<v Speaker 1>able to do, and I don't know, ten weeks and

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<v Speaker 1>that's bottle up. Derrick Henry just nineteen for sixty nine.

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<v Speaker 1>On the ground. Ryan Hannell does throw for two hundred

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<v Speaker 1>nine yards and two touchdowns, but without the ability to

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<v Speaker 1>move the ball with Henry effectively, those are just kind

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<v Speaker 1>of empty yards. So we'll get to the matchup with

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<v Speaker 1>the forty nine ers in a bit, but break down

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<v Speaker 1>this game for me. What were your general impressions.

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<v Speaker 2>So, yeah, this is healthy Patrick Mahomes and that's something

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<v Speaker 2>you brought up, and it's something that's really important, specifically

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<v Speaker 2>with that twenty plus yard touchdown run that concluded the

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<v Speaker 2>first half first time these two teams met. Mahomes is

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<v Speaker 2>coming off of a knee injury that's going to require

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<v Speaker 2>offseason surgery, although minor, if there is a such thing

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<v Speaker 2>as minor surgery, and he did not have a single

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<v Speaker 2>rushing attempt in that game.

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<v Speaker 1>I believe that was.

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<v Speaker 2>Only one of three games on the regular season that

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<v Speaker 2>he didn't have a rushing attempt. Still, even though he

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<v Speaker 2>was a statue, he dropped four to thirty three on

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<v Speaker 2>their heads on the road. And now we had a

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<v Speaker 2>fully healthy Patrick Mahomes and a fully dialed up Chiefs

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<v Speaker 2>offense that had eight yards per play and pretty much

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<v Speaker 2>did whatever they wanted to when they wanted to save

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<v Speaker 2>for that first drive, which is very mirrored almost perfectly

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<v Speaker 2>the start of last week bad drop by Kelsey. Things

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<v Speaker 2>get off slow, but then the Chiefs just start rolling.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, is there any other time when a team

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<v Speaker 2>gets down multiple scores and you're just not concerned. That's

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<v Speaker 2>what makes this chief seem so dangerous and puts the

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<v Speaker 2>fear of God in you if you're holding a ticket

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<v Speaker 2>for the other team. There is no lead that's really

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<v Speaker 2>safe with these Kansas City Chiefs.

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<v Speaker 1>And let me ask you something, what side did you

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<v Speaker 1>have on this game? Both on the spread and the total.

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<v Speaker 2>So Chiefs minus seven and a half was my favorite

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<v Speaker 2>pick of the week. I didn't have much of a

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<v Speaker 2>lean on the total. On Gridiron Gamble, I gave out

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<v Speaker 2>a very unorthodox parlay for this week because I don't

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<v Speaker 2>know if you've noticed, but there's just been a war

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<v Speaker 2>on teasers from the books and you have to pay

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<v Speaker 2>up to like minus won forty minus won forty five

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<v Speaker 2>juice on some of these two team teasers. So I

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<v Speaker 2>gave out Chiefs minus seven and a half parlayed with

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<v Speaker 2>Niners money line at plus one sixty, I wasn't strong

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<v Speaker 2>enough to get Niners minus the seven and a half.

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<v Speaker 2>Ultimately they smashed and covered as well. But I thought

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<v Speaker 2>this Chiefs line should have been north of double digits.

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<v Speaker 2>This is a really bad matchup for Tennessee.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you know, I could see it, but I'll be honest,

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<v Speaker 1>I had bought in the other way. You know, I

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<v Speaker 1>thought what I was really most impressed by in this

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<v Speaker 1>whole thing, it's not the offense, because this is the offense. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>You you know, with Mahomes being you know, as close

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<v Speaker 1>to full health as he's going to get without surgery,

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<v Speaker 1>this is what the offense is going to be. They're

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<v Speaker 1>completely unstoppable at the moment, unless you know, maybe well

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<v Speaker 1>we'll see what happens in the super Bowl with the

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<v Speaker 1>forty nine ers and their defense, but a defense like Tennessee's,

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<v Speaker 1>which is, you know, solid against the run but mediocre

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<v Speaker 1>against the pass, they really didn't have much of a chance.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the reasons why I kind of leaned towards

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<v Speaker 1>Tennessee getting more than the touchdown was because again I

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<v Speaker 1>thought that, you know, the team sort of the whole

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<v Speaker 1>whatever the phrase is, the hole is greater than some

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<v Speaker 1>of their parts. Oh yeah, for sure.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, their output was greater than the some of its parts.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's a testament to how well Rabels coached this

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<v Speaker 2>team and how well they've performed in the playoffs. And

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<v Speaker 2>they were great matchups against I mean, styles make fights.

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<v Speaker 2>The NFL is such a week to week league, which

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<v Speaker 2>is why the Niners are so crazy. They can win

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<v Speaker 2>in so many different ways. But the Niners Week one

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<v Speaker 2>of the playoffs, they get really a dusty Patriots team

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<v Speaker 2>and really handle business on the road. Last week, you

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<v Speaker 2>talked about it, the run stopping ability the Titans, the

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<v Speaker 2>spine of their defense, whether Beach Reil Casey up front

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<v Speaker 2>or their linebackers and Jayon Brown and Rashaan Evans, and

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<v Speaker 2>then back in the safeties with Kenny Vacaro and Kevin Byer,

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<v Speaker 2>the spine of their defense is their strength. So that

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<v Speaker 2>was a terrible matchup for the Ravens. And then the

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<v Speaker 2>Evens go zero for seven basically in the turnover battle

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<v Speaker 2>if you include turnovers on downs. So they just really

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<v Speaker 2>had no shot in that game from hell. But then, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>they come into a game that's against the Chiefs team

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<v Speaker 2>that's gonna stretch you horizontally with their passing a top,

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<v Speaker 2>not just vertically, and the Titan secondary just can't compete

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<v Speaker 2>with that. Who and who really who can in the NFL?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, we're gonna find out next week whether anybody really

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<v Speaker 1>are in two weeks where there anybody really can. Let

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<v Speaker 1>me ask you a couple of things on this game.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, they bottle up Henry, which is something I

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<v Speaker 1>didn't think they had a chance to do, right. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, to the extent the Chiefs defense has a strength,

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<v Speaker 1>it's against the pass, not necessarily the run. Henry had

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<v Speaker 1>been as unstoppable. You know, he had this stretch as

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<v Speaker 1>good as any running back had ever had over an

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<v Speaker 1>eight game stretch, nineteen for sixty nine. Do you think

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<v Speaker 1>that was more about Henry kind of finally finally wearing

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<v Speaker 1>down after getting you know, thirty plus carries for a

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<v Speaker 1>few weeks in a row and having all this work,

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<v Speaker 1>or do you think that, you know, the Chiefs defense

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<v Speaker 1>it's kind of rebattened, and you know, Chris Jones playing,

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<v Speaker 1>he was, you know, a game time call just kind

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<v Speaker 1>of up their entire defense or what which side was

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<v Speaker 1>it was more about the Chiefs defense or more about

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<v Speaker 1>Henry finally running at a gas do you think.

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<v Speaker 2>To be honest, I think it's more about the Titans

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<v Speaker 2>not being willing to be more aggressive and throwing the football.

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<v Speaker 2>It's really easy to scheme against the traditional run because

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<v Speaker 2>you can stack the box and just be very aggressive

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<v Speaker 2>up front. It's much more difficult when you have, let's say,

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<v Speaker 2>a running passer like Lamar, because you can't just scheme

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<v Speaker 2>for one thing. You have to contain on the edges

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<v Speaker 2>and then also be stout.

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<v Speaker 1>Up the middle.

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<v Speaker 2>But when you can put all these resources in the box,

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<v Speaker 2>and granted you're right, the Patriots and the Ravens didn't

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<v Speaker 2>have much success doing this, but there was one specific

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<v Speaker 2>time in this game, I believe it was a third

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<v Speaker 2>and short or fourth and short where the Chiefs Spagnoler

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<v Speaker 2>literally rolled out goal line defense at the forty nine

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<v Speaker 2>yard line and you just have to be able to

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<v Speaker 2>check to a slant there or some kind of pass

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<v Speaker 2>if you're an offense operating in twenty twenty. There's also

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<v Speaker 2>other opportunities where Ryan Tannehill is seeing single high and

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<v Speaker 2>he's got two guys on the left that can run

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<v Speaker 2>a combo slot fade something, and you're going to beat

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<v Speaker 2>both man and zone in a lot of those cases,

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<v Speaker 2>and the Titans just kind of turtled and kept running

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<v Speaker 2>the ball. This is why running the ball isn't sustainable

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<v Speaker 2>as a primary method of winning football games, because it's

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<v Speaker 2>just so much easier to scheme against. So I'm not

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<v Speaker 2>really going to fault Henry or even this offensive line.

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<v Speaker 2>I just think it's really really hard for running, especially

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<v Speaker 2>traditional running, to be your optimal output on offense.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, how about the slow starts? Okay, you know

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<v Speaker 1>you can right off last week against the Texans because

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<v Speaker 1>they're coming off the pie right, so you're sort of like, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe you're not really ready for it. Texans, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>have a couple of really explosive plays and get out

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<v Speaker 1>to that huge lead before the Chiefs come roaring back.

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<v Speaker 1>This one, you know, it's not quite as dramatic, and

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<v Speaker 1>Tennessee doesn't have the offense to make it quite as dramatic.

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<v Speaker 1>But again, they fall down ten nothing, they fall down

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<v Speaker 1>seventeen to seven. And you can recover against the Texans,

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<v Speaker 1>who have a subpar defense. You can recover against the Titans,

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<v Speaker 1>who have a solid defense but not one that really

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<v Speaker 1>you know, plays against your strengths and not the type

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<v Speaker 1>of team that's going to put up a ton of points.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know if you're going to be able to

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<v Speaker 1>survive having one of these slow starts against the Niners.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you think is going on? Out of curiosity

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<v Speaker 1>with the fact that in both of these playoffs games

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<v Speaker 1>the Chiefs have started really slow? I mean, is it coaching?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it just something where I don't know, it takes

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<v Speaker 1>a little while. And are they going to be able

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<v Speaker 1>to solve that when they go into the super Bowl

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<v Speaker 1>because they've got two weeks now, you know they're coming

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<v Speaker 1>off that buy. You know, against the Texans they were

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<v Speaker 1>really slow, and again it worries me a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>to see them slow out of the gate here.

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<v Speaker 2>This is slightly concerning too, because the Niners thrive in

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<v Speaker 2>positive game scripts, like when they can pin their ears

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<v Speaker 2>back on that defensive front and when they can just

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<v Speaker 2>get whoever is running the ball. Tonight, it was all

0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:06.679
<v Speaker 2>world Raheem Moster getting downhill. They're a very dangerous outfut

0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:10.120
<v Speaker 2>Mo Nwara on our podcast, one of his favorite bets

0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:13.160
<v Speaker 2>this weekend was literally, if anybody gets up two scores

0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:16.480
<v Speaker 2>live in this Packers Niners game. Just bet that team

0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:20.400
<v Speaker 2>because the Niners in negative script could be scary. We've

0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:22.439
<v Speaker 2>not really seen it yet, and we know what the

0:11:22.520 --> 0:11:25.840
<v Speaker 2>Niners aren't positive script. They just roll these teams over.

0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:30.120
<v Speaker 2>In terms of the why. Maybe it's just arrogance. Maybe

0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:32.760
<v Speaker 2>it's just playing at home, knowing your favorite, knowing you're

0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:36.240
<v Speaker 2>likely to get through to the next round. Hopefully it's

0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:38.760
<v Speaker 2>not a hangover thing, because then these two weeks will

0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:42.520
<v Speaker 2>play into that even more, and you cannot get off

0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:45.360
<v Speaker 2>to a slow start against the Niners on a neutral field.

0:11:45.520 --> 0:11:47.680
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I haven't been able to pinpoint it. I thought like,

0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:49.600
<v Speaker 1>all right, there's got to be something that's kind of

0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:52.319
<v Speaker 1>causing this, because it was really concerning to see them,

0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:55.400
<v Speaker 1>not necessarily for me as somebody who leaned both towards

0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:57.760
<v Speaker 1>the under and towards Tennessee in this game. So I

0:11:57.800 --> 0:11:59.680
<v Speaker 1>was like, great, all right, perfect, this is kind of

0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:02.000
<v Speaker 1>exactly how I saw this playing out. The Titans are

0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:03.880
<v Speaker 1>gonna be able to run down there. They're gonna have

0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:06.160
<v Speaker 1>enough on defense to kind of keep this game close

0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:09.680
<v Speaker 1>enough to cover the more than a touchdown spread. But

0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:12.400
<v Speaker 1>in the end, it's really a little strange, and it

0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:14.720
<v Speaker 1>does make me a little concerned as we get into

0:12:14.760 --> 0:12:17.040
<v Speaker 1>the Super Bowl. But before we get there, let's talk

0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:19.240
<v Speaker 1>about the second game, which, again, you know, thirty five

0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:23.600
<v Speaker 1>twenty four, This game was probably mostly over in roughly

0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:25.920
<v Speaker 1>the third quarter. You get into this second game here

0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:28.040
<v Speaker 1>with the Niners thirty seven the Packers twenty, and this

0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:30.640
<v Speaker 1>game was over really early. Rogers did what he could

0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:32.640
<v Speaker 1>in the second half to make it a game, but

0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:35.240
<v Speaker 1>there was just no stopping the forty nine Ers offense

0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:37.440
<v Speaker 1>right now, or should I say as you talked about

0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:39.520
<v Speaker 1>the forty nine Ers running game, I mean I talked

0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:41.280
<v Speaker 1>about it with Adam Burke this week when we were

0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:44.680
<v Speaker 1>breaking down this week's games. There just didn't seem to

0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:47.720
<v Speaker 1>be a path for the Packers to win this game.

0:12:47.840 --> 0:12:51.040
<v Speaker 1>Like I tried to play this game out several different ways.

0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:53.800
<v Speaker 1>I could not find a way at all for the

0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:57.319
<v Speaker 1>Packers to win this game. Like you, I wasn't, you know,

0:12:57.480 --> 0:13:00.280
<v Speaker 1>jumping for joy about the seven and a half points

0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:02.400
<v Speaker 1>spread or wherever it was seven seven and a half.

0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:05.400
<v Speaker 1>I couldn't, you know, jump all over that, because that's

0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:07.320
<v Speaker 1>a big number when you're in the championship week. Even

0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:08.800
<v Speaker 1>in the other game, it's a big number. But I

0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:11.200
<v Speaker 1>felt absolutely confident that the Niners were gonna win this

0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:13.920
<v Speaker 1>game because I just didn't see how it was possible

0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:16.040
<v Speaker 1>on either side of the ball that the Packers were

0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:18.160
<v Speaker 1>gonna have the upper hand, and they really didn't. The

0:13:18.200 --> 0:13:20.320
<v Speaker 1>final score not quite as bad as when these teams

0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:22.240
<v Speaker 1>met in Week twelve, but it might as well have

0:13:22.280 --> 0:13:29.120
<v Speaker 1>been Jimmy Garoppolo through eight passes, not completed through eight passes.

0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:31.600
<v Speaker 1>That is not the way the NFL is supposed to work.

0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:34.319
<v Speaker 1>As you mentioned earlier, all the rushing game for the Niners,

0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:37.200
<v Speaker 1>and specifically were he Moster because Tevin Coleman left with

0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:39.600
<v Speaker 1>a shoulder injury. I believe he was carted off, so

0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:41.600
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if we have any details on that yet.

0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:43.640
<v Speaker 1>I have not seen any, but certainly he's got two

0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:45.440
<v Speaker 1>weeks to get ready for the Super Bowl, so unless

0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:47.880
<v Speaker 1>it's something really serious, hopefully he can make it back

0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:50.360
<v Speaker 1>for that game. Mostard has two hundred and twenty yards

0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:53.719
<v Speaker 1>rushing on twenty nine carries. Matt Brida meanwhile, you know,

0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:55.319
<v Speaker 1>used to think of this as a three headed attack,

0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:58.040
<v Speaker 1>just one carry for two yards. I don't know whether

0:13:58.120 --> 0:13:59.880
<v Speaker 1>or not he's still in the doghouse because of that. Fumble.

0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:02.320
<v Speaker 1>I didn't see any injury, whether or not it's that fumble,

0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:04.320
<v Speaker 1>whether it's just that they have two weeks so they

0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:06.760
<v Speaker 1>were just going to go with Mostart, But whatever it is,

0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:10.199
<v Speaker 1>Mostart was absolutely dynamic, and really it's all about the defense.

0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:13.280
<v Speaker 1>Aaron Rodgers completed nearly eighty percent of his passes three

0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:15.520
<v Speaker 1>hundred and twenty six yards, but he turns it over

0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:18.439
<v Speaker 1>three times. And that's basically about as empty a line

0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:21.000
<v Speaker 1>as you can have. The Niners sack them three times

0:14:21.080 --> 0:14:24.600
<v Speaker 1>their secondary. When you have d Ford and you compare

0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:28.040
<v Speaker 1>him with Bosa and Armstead, and when you have Kwan

0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:30.320
<v Speaker 1>Alexander to stop the run and you have Tart back

0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:33.360
<v Speaker 1>it even at defense like the Chiefs. We're going to

0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:35.280
<v Speaker 1>get into that game. You know, we'll talk right now

0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:37.880
<v Speaker 1>just about the Niners. I mean, how good is this

0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:40.000
<v Speaker 1>Niners team right now? Talk to me about this game.

0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:42.080
<v Speaker 1>This game was over, you know, ten minutes in.

0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:47.160
<v Speaker 2>It's ridiculous when Kwan Alexander is a luxury item because

0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:50.200
<v Speaker 2>Drake Greenlaw is getting as much burned, if not more

0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:54.120
<v Speaker 2>than Kwan in that linebacking corps. We know Fred Warner's

0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:56.640
<v Speaker 2>been tremendous there, but Greenlaw is the guy that made

0:14:56.680 --> 0:15:00.400
<v Speaker 2>the tackle against Jacob Hollister to win the de vision.

0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:04.400
<v Speaker 2>He made a very massive tackle against Aaron Jones in

0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:07.360
<v Speaker 2>this game on a third and short whether Rogers tried

0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:09.960
<v Speaker 2>to throw out a quick flat pass there and Greenlaw

0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:12.520
<v Speaker 2>just ran it down and tackled him perfectly. So when

0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:16.600
<v Speaker 2>somebody like Kwan is a luxury item, things are certainly

0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:19.880
<v Speaker 2>getting get ugly. I was also fascinated that Richard Sherman,

0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:23.240
<v Speaker 2>who's traditionally a left cornerback, traveled to the right side

0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:25.200
<v Speaker 2>of the field a couple times in this game a

0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:28.880
<v Speaker 2>little gameplay there, which is a little fascinating. Specifically, I

0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:33.600
<v Speaker 2>saw stat going around that Rogers's QBR when throwing left

0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:37.000
<v Speaker 2>was I believe thirty first in the league and fourth

0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:39.400
<v Speaker 2>throwing right. So I really thought that they were just

0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:43.760
<v Speaker 2>going to keep Sherm right and offense right and make

0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:46.920
<v Speaker 2>Rogers throw to DeVante on the left hand side. But

0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:49.640
<v Speaker 2>they moved Sherm around, which was fascinating, and then Sheran

0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:52.280
<v Speaker 2>puts the jets on there to pad some stats and

0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:56.000
<v Speaker 2>get the interception at the end. Yeah, this Niners defense

0:15:56.200 --> 0:16:01.000
<v Speaker 2>is tremendous. They're tremendously coached by Robert Salah, and when

0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:04.080
<v Speaker 2>Kansas City takes the field on offense in the Super Bowl,

0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:06.760
<v Speaker 2>this will be iron on iron and it is going

0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:08.480
<v Speaker 2>to be fascinating to watch.

0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:10.400
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean, I hate to say it, man, Like

0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:12.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, we do this. We've got two games to

0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:15.040
<v Speaker 1>get through and then a super Bowl to talk about.

0:16:15.080 --> 0:16:17.960
<v Speaker 1>But there's just nothing to break down from this game, right,

0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:21.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean, in the end, the Niners were completely dominant.

0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:24.720
<v Speaker 1>Most people thought they were going to be completely dominant.

0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:27.360
<v Speaker 1>These two teams played again, like I don't know, six

0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:31.600
<v Speaker 1>weeks ago, it looked almost identical. So how about we

0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:33.320
<v Speaker 1>just move on? Are you good to that? Because we've

0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:36.360
<v Speaker 1>got a juicy, juicy Super Bowl coming up here, and

0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:38.440
<v Speaker 1>I think we really just need to break that down

0:16:38.440 --> 0:16:40.360
<v Speaker 1>and we can move on from this game. An amazing

0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:42.360
<v Speaker 1>effort by the Niners. But what do you think you

0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:43.720
<v Speaker 1>ready to go just to the Super Bowl?

0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:45.200
<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, let's do it.

0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:47.600
<v Speaker 1>Before we do, let's let me tell you about the

0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:50.520
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0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:05.400
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0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:07.840
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0:17:10.400 --> 0:17:13.359
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0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:15.520
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0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:18.800
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0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:21.399
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0:17:36.359 --> 0:17:39.560
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0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:41.719
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0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:45.480
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0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:47.879
<v Speaker 1>here we go. This is what kind of everybody wanted

0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:50.840
<v Speaker 1>when we had the four teams left forty nine ers

0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:53.800
<v Speaker 1>versus Chiefs is certainly the most compelling matchup for the

0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:56.600
<v Speaker 1>consensus lines. Right now, I am seeing the Chiefs at

0:17:56.760 --> 0:17:59.400
<v Speaker 1>minus one and a half and the total hovering at

0:17:59.440 --> 0:18:01.919
<v Speaker 1>fifty two and a half. This is trending up. I

0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:04.080
<v Speaker 1>saw it at fifty one and a half at places

0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:06.240
<v Speaker 1>when it opened. I'm seeing it at fifty three in

0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:08.919
<v Speaker 1>some spots. But for our purposes, let's look at the

0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:11.720
<v Speaker 1>consensus line with fifty two and a half. Last time

0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:14.840
<v Speaker 1>these two teams met Jimmy Garoppolo towards ACL, So let's

0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:17.639
<v Speaker 1>hope this one turns out differently. Why don't you just

0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:19.359
<v Speaker 1>go ahead and give your early impressions of it and

0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:20.440
<v Speaker 1>we can have some back and forth.

0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:24.920
<v Speaker 2>I think the line's really fair, really sharp. I guess

0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:29.160
<v Speaker 2>it would come out around Chiefs minus one to half

0:18:29.160 --> 0:18:31.800
<v Speaker 2>point heavier. I could see it going as high as two.

0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:38.679
<v Speaker 2>This is the most interesting book making game for me

0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:42.400
<v Speaker 2>because it differs so much from every other NFL game,

0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:46.960
<v Speaker 2>even including Championship Weekend. Because the amount of volume in

0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:50.600
<v Speaker 2>normal people betting in this game is going to make

0:18:50.640 --> 0:18:55.880
<v Speaker 2>it so that Vegas or whoever is your bookmaker if

0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:59.640
<v Speaker 2>you're in an eligible territory. Now, now that we're finally

0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:04.120
<v Speaker 2>breaking down some laws. They can make money just off

0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:07.320
<v Speaker 2>of volume alone and charging Viigan this game when normally

0:19:07.560 --> 0:19:10.600
<v Speaker 2>and they don't take very large positions. But normally a

0:19:10.640 --> 0:19:13.840
<v Speaker 2>lot of these books tend to have an opinion on

0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:17.200
<v Speaker 2>the game, and mainly that's just because the market is

0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:19.760
<v Speaker 2>usually so heavy on one side that they can't control

0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:22.760
<v Speaker 2>the fact that there's going to be more money on

0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:27.199
<v Speaker 2>a certain side. But with these two teams, and with

0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:30.840
<v Speaker 2>this line being short of a field goal, I think

0:19:30.920 --> 0:19:34.639
<v Speaker 2>action is going to be very evenly split. And I

0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:36.720
<v Speaker 2>think our friends in the desert will be able to

0:19:36.760 --> 0:19:39.720
<v Speaker 2>lick their wounds after this championship weekend and just kind

0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:42.280
<v Speaker 2>of make money off of the big So at this

0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:47.119
<v Speaker 2>time I have the slightest of leans for Kansas City,

0:19:47.320 --> 0:19:52.080
<v Speaker 2>and I actually kind of think this total is really low,

0:19:52.160 --> 0:19:56.000
<v Speaker 2>and that's a total fish opinion, but I think that

0:19:56.280 --> 0:19:59.240
<v Speaker 2>normally good offense is going to beat good defense. So

0:19:59.240 --> 0:20:01.000
<v Speaker 2>I think Kansas It is going to be able to

0:20:01.040 --> 0:20:03.040
<v Speaker 2>set the pace in this game, even if they get

0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:07.280
<v Speaker 2>behind early. I'm not as afraid of the Niners clamping down,

0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:10.760
<v Speaker 2>even Rogers. We saw Rogers faint a comeback just now,

0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:15.359
<v Speaker 2>scoring some garbage time points, throwing to Davante Adams, and

0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:21.040
<v Speaker 2>then something Lizards, something Kumero. That other tight end eighty

0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:24.440
<v Speaker 2>seven name is escaping me. But these casuals like practice

0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:26.680
<v Speaker 2>squad guys. So I think the Chiefs will be able

0:20:26.680 --> 0:20:28.800
<v Speaker 2>to set the pace and score some points in this game,

0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:32.000
<v Speaker 2>and the Niners can do it in a multiple multitude

0:20:32.040 --> 0:20:36.359
<v Speaker 2>of ways. So slightly on the Chiefs at that number.

0:20:36.400 --> 0:20:38.680
<v Speaker 2>But I do like the over which makes me feel

0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:40.080
<v Speaker 2>like a complete fish.

0:20:40.280 --> 0:20:44.520
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I really think that I have like six things

0:20:44.600 --> 0:20:47.040
<v Speaker 1>that I want to respond to with what you said.

0:20:47.160 --> 0:20:49.480
<v Speaker 1>None of it is wrong, by the way. First of all,

0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:51.920
<v Speaker 1>Jay Sternberger, I think is the tight end that you're

0:20:51.960 --> 0:20:54.000
<v Speaker 1>looking for. And frankly, you know, the one thing I

0:20:54.080 --> 0:20:56.880
<v Speaker 1>think we probably should say throughout this thing is it's

0:20:56.880 --> 0:21:00.080
<v Speaker 1>pretty amazing that the Packers, you know, I get that

0:21:00.119 --> 0:21:03.119
<v Speaker 1>their point differential wasn't great, but it's pretty amazing that

0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:04.600
<v Speaker 1>they were able to do what they were able to

0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:07.199
<v Speaker 1>do with you know, an okay defense, nothing crazy. They

0:21:07.200 --> 0:21:10.960
<v Speaker 1>could be beaten on the ground and legitimately one pass catcher, right,

0:21:11.040 --> 0:21:14.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean, Devonte Adams. Alan Lazard was your number two

0:21:14.520 --> 0:21:17.639
<v Speaker 1>and he is not a number two wide receiver and

0:21:17.680 --> 0:21:19.520
<v Speaker 1>the corpse of Jimmy Graham was your number three. It

0:21:19.600 --> 0:21:22.080
<v Speaker 1>just was not happening. So the fact that they made

0:21:22.119 --> 0:21:25.480
<v Speaker 1>it this far is pretty awesome to see. And you know,

0:21:25.520 --> 0:21:27.359
<v Speaker 1>I love Rogers and I hope he gets one more

0:21:27.359 --> 0:21:29.679
<v Speaker 1>shot at it. Now going to this game, let's talk

0:21:29.680 --> 0:21:32.960
<v Speaker 1>about a couple of things. Just let's take a step back,

0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:35.520
<v Speaker 1>just for our listeners in case they're not quite as

0:21:35.640 --> 0:21:39.080
<v Speaker 1>sort of sharp or understanding of the betting universe. What

0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:42.440
<v Speaker 1>you've said is I think absolutely correct, particularly with this line,

0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:44.920
<v Speaker 1>but generally in the Super Bowl. There's so much volume

0:21:44.960 --> 0:21:47.280
<v Speaker 1>on this game that Vegas and we'll just call it Vegas,

0:21:47.280 --> 0:21:49.560
<v Speaker 1>but any sportsbook. I like your lowering talk, by the way,

0:21:49.600 --> 0:21:51.359
<v Speaker 1>where you tried to be very careful about who can

0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:54.639
<v Speaker 1>bet and who can't very good in this game. The

0:21:54.720 --> 0:21:57.159
<v Speaker 1>volume is so much that bookmakers are going to be

0:21:57.160 --> 0:21:59.760
<v Speaker 1>able to come out ahead just by the viig. But

0:22:00.119 --> 0:22:02.440
<v Speaker 1>that is not I think there's a misconception by the way,

0:22:02.640 --> 0:22:05.679
<v Speaker 1>that that is the way that you know betting works,

0:22:05.720 --> 0:22:09.000
<v Speaker 1>and that really all that bookmakers want is even action

0:22:09.240 --> 0:22:11.800
<v Speaker 1>on both sides so that they can just make money

0:22:11.800 --> 0:22:14.280
<v Speaker 1>off the big That's not really the case. Generally speaking,

0:22:14.320 --> 0:22:16.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean, sure, if that happens, that's fine, that's great,

0:22:16.680 --> 0:22:19.760
<v Speaker 1>they'll do it. But generally speaking, bookmakers are fine to

0:22:19.880 --> 0:22:23.760
<v Speaker 1>take a side. Bookmakers are fine right to say, this

0:22:23.840 --> 0:22:26.280
<v Speaker 1>is where we're gonna have liability, and we are okay

0:22:26.320 --> 0:22:28.720
<v Speaker 1>with that. So in this game, you know, the point

0:22:28.760 --> 0:22:30.960
<v Speaker 1>you bright up brought up, I think is a great one,

0:22:30.960 --> 0:22:33.159
<v Speaker 1>which is the fact that in this game, the side

0:22:33.240 --> 0:22:35.880
<v Speaker 1>doesn't really matter. This line is sort of perfectly said.

0:22:35.920 --> 0:22:39.600
<v Speaker 1>I completely agree. I really have no strong lean on

0:22:39.600 --> 0:22:42.320
<v Speaker 1>this game myself, and basically all you and I have

0:22:42.359 --> 0:22:44.960
<v Speaker 1>done this entire year is break down every single game.

0:22:45.040 --> 0:22:47.040
<v Speaker 1>So the fact that we're looking at this like I don't.

0:22:46.880 --> 0:22:49.440
<v Speaker 2>Know whatever, yeah, pretty much right.

0:22:49.560 --> 0:22:51.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's what it's gonna be, and that's what

0:22:51.280 --> 0:22:53.480
<v Speaker 1>the public's gonna be. So I think that's good. The

0:22:53.560 --> 0:22:56.280
<v Speaker 1>second thing is that again you talked about the over,

0:22:56.400 --> 0:22:58.600
<v Speaker 1>and I agree with you. I mean, wherever it is

0:22:58.640 --> 0:23:00.000
<v Speaker 1>right now, let's call it fifty two and a half,

0:23:00.080 --> 0:23:02.000
<v Speaker 1>it's not ending at fifty two and a half, because

0:23:02.200 --> 0:23:04.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, guys like us I have been on the

0:23:04.640 --> 0:23:07.000
<v Speaker 1>under in the last two Chiefs games. And I think

0:23:07.280 --> 0:23:08.960
<v Speaker 1>there were a couple of things number one. I think

0:23:09.000 --> 0:23:11.760
<v Speaker 1>I was not giving full credit to how much Mahomes

0:23:11.800 --> 0:23:15.360
<v Speaker 1>has completely gotten over you know, his his ailment and

0:23:15.400 --> 0:23:17.560
<v Speaker 1>how much he looks one hundred percent because they really

0:23:17.600 --> 0:23:21.199
<v Speaker 1>are a completely different offense when that happens, because remember,

0:23:21.320 --> 0:23:23.040
<v Speaker 1>towards the end of the season, they've gotten under a

0:23:23.119 --> 0:23:27.320
<v Speaker 1>whole bunch. So, you know, and both these teams are

0:23:27.680 --> 0:23:31.200
<v Speaker 1>brilliant offensively. Okay, I get it that sometimes Jimmy Garoppolo

0:23:31.240 --> 0:23:33.679
<v Speaker 1>just doesn't throw because they can just run. But you know,

0:23:33.720 --> 0:23:37.120
<v Speaker 1>you've got two of the most brilliant offensive minds coaching

0:23:37.119 --> 0:23:40.800
<v Speaker 1>both teams. And the thing is that, generally speaking, public's

0:23:40.840 --> 0:23:43.399
<v Speaker 1>love overs, right, the general sort of you know this

0:23:43.480 --> 0:23:47.440
<v Speaker 1>is a huge generality, but the public love's overs and

0:23:47.600 --> 0:23:49.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, the sharp play more often than not is

0:23:49.800 --> 0:23:52.399
<v Speaker 1>the under because public betters, You're like, oh, they're going

0:23:52.480 --> 0:23:53.960
<v Speaker 1>to score, they're going to do a lot of stuff

0:23:54.000 --> 0:23:55.840
<v Speaker 1>they want to go over. So the fact that you

0:23:55.880 --> 0:23:57.679
<v Speaker 1>and I are again both looking at this game and

0:23:57.680 --> 0:23:59.840
<v Speaker 1>being like, oh, yeah, this is going over if for Noah,

0:23:59.840 --> 0:24:02.840
<v Speaker 1>the reason this is just not gonna be a defensive struggle,

0:24:02.920 --> 0:24:07.120
<v Speaker 1>Like there's just no way not With how well these

0:24:07.119 --> 0:24:11.680
<v Speaker 1>two coaches can can devise a game plan on offense

0:24:11.960 --> 0:24:14.480
<v Speaker 1>when they have two weeks to prepare. And remember, the

0:24:14.520 --> 0:24:18.000
<v Speaker 1>Chiefs are third in offensive DVOA and that's including a

0:24:18.000 --> 0:24:20.600
<v Speaker 1>lot of the time when Mahomes was hurt. The Niners

0:24:20.640 --> 0:24:22.359
<v Speaker 1>are seventh. The Chiefs are fifth in the league. In

0:24:22.400 --> 0:24:24.600
<v Speaker 1>points per game, the Niners are second, the Chiefs are six,

0:24:24.680 --> 0:24:27.280
<v Speaker 1>and yards per game the Niners are fourth. The big

0:24:27.320 --> 0:24:29.600
<v Speaker 1>thing though, again, and this is really what we need

0:24:29.640 --> 0:24:33.040
<v Speaker 1>to talk about necessarily, is you know, putting aside the

0:24:33.040 --> 0:24:36.040
<v Speaker 1>whole back door over like basically what you had here.

0:24:36.080 --> 0:24:38.480
<v Speaker 1>You know that this game which was done that the

0:24:38.560 --> 0:24:42.000
<v Speaker 1>Packers couldn't do anything offensively whatsoever, winds up at fifty

0:24:42.000 --> 0:24:44.239
<v Speaker 1>seven points, right because in the end the Niners are

0:24:44.240 --> 0:24:47.840
<v Speaker 1>just kind of sitting back and saying whatever. Putting that aside,

0:24:48.440 --> 0:24:50.040
<v Speaker 1>Is there any chance, I mean, I just want to

0:24:50.080 --> 0:24:54.040
<v Speaker 1>talk through this. The Niners are second in defensive DVOA. Okay,

0:24:54.080 --> 0:24:57.919
<v Speaker 1>they they're at full strength right now. They're gonna be rested,

0:24:57.920 --> 0:25:00.480
<v Speaker 1>they're gonna be ready to go. Is there any chance

0:25:00.560 --> 0:25:03.520
<v Speaker 1>that they can come out and shut down Patrick Mahomes

0:25:03.640 --> 0:25:04.240
<v Speaker 1>and the Chiefs?

0:25:04.840 --> 0:25:06.919
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think we just have to define what shutdown

0:25:06.960 --> 0:25:09.720
<v Speaker 2>means I think they can make it tough for the Chiefs. Sure,

0:25:09.760 --> 0:25:11.959
<v Speaker 2>I think that's a reality. But I just think that

0:25:12.359 --> 0:25:16.000
<v Speaker 2>the way that the rules legislate the ability to throw

0:25:16.080 --> 0:25:19.760
<v Speaker 2>the ball, whether it be things like defensive holding or

0:25:19.840 --> 0:25:24.000
<v Speaker 2>pass interference, that late pass interference to the Chiefs a

0:25:24.080 --> 0:25:25.919
<v Speaker 2>little bit of a ticki tac call, But by the

0:25:26.000 --> 0:25:29.800
<v Speaker 2>letter of the law, you cannot interfere with an offensive

0:25:29.840 --> 0:25:32.600
<v Speaker 2>player's ability to get to the ball if your head

0:25:32.640 --> 0:25:36.160
<v Speaker 2>has not turned the entire time when you're competing.

0:25:36.760 --> 0:25:37.280
<v Speaker 1>For the ball.

0:25:37.400 --> 0:25:41.440
<v Speaker 2>So I just I really truly believe that good offense

0:25:41.520 --> 0:25:44.280
<v Speaker 2>is always going to beat good defense, or at least

0:25:44.560 --> 0:25:47.640
<v Speaker 2>have success. Maybe beat just not the right operational term

0:25:47.720 --> 0:25:50.480
<v Speaker 2>to use there. And even if the Niners, who have

0:25:50.560 --> 0:25:54.840
<v Speaker 2>a great defense, are able to limit the Chiefs, I

0:25:54.880 --> 0:25:58.720
<v Speaker 2>still think they're like a walking twenty one points at

0:25:58.720 --> 0:26:02.320
<v Speaker 2>a stone minute. I mean, let you brought up a

0:26:02.359 --> 0:26:04.840
<v Speaker 2>really good point about the Niners too. The Niners can score.

0:26:04.960 --> 0:26:08.520
<v Speaker 2>There were ninety four points scored in their game against

0:26:08.520 --> 0:26:13.119
<v Speaker 2>the Saints, so they can shoot out. I just I

0:26:13.240 --> 0:26:16.359
<v Speaker 2>just I just like you. You put it perfectly. Two

0:26:16.400 --> 0:26:21.080
<v Speaker 2>great offensive minds, and there are certainly even though the

0:26:21.160 --> 0:26:24.520
<v Speaker 2>Niners are stout, there's still deficiencies there to be taken

0:26:24.560 --> 0:26:28.640
<v Speaker 2>advantage of. And just the way the Chiefs spreads you horizontally,

0:26:29.320 --> 0:26:31.639
<v Speaker 2>somebody's gonna be open and Mahomes is gonna make that

0:26:31.720 --> 0:26:35.040
<v Speaker 2>throw and just hopefully Kelsey and Tyreek Hill can can

0:26:35.080 --> 0:26:35.800
<v Speaker 2>hold on to it.

0:26:36.119 --> 0:26:39.159
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I just I completely agree. I'm just trying to

0:26:39.200 --> 0:26:41.760
<v Speaker 1>basically see, like, is there anyway I don't see it

0:26:41.840 --> 0:26:44.920
<v Speaker 1>at this point. I abstinine injury. I don't see how

0:26:44.920 --> 0:26:47.600
<v Speaker 1>you can stop Mahomes, especially, you know, just for another reason.

0:26:47.640 --> 0:26:50.040
<v Speaker 1>Then again, even if he gets rushed by you know,

0:26:50.160 --> 0:26:52.440
<v Speaker 1>all the guys up front, he's so fast and he's

0:26:52.480 --> 0:26:54.720
<v Speaker 1>so brilliant with his legs as well, now that he's

0:26:54.760 --> 0:26:57.520
<v Speaker 1>basically fully healthy, that he's gonna be able to get

0:26:57.560 --> 0:27:00.760
<v Speaker 1>things done regardless. It really is some thing where again,

0:27:01.080 --> 0:27:03.960
<v Speaker 1>I don't you know, they scored thirty seven points in

0:27:04.000 --> 0:27:07.480
<v Speaker 1>this game and they didn't throw whatsoever. So I don't

0:27:07.520 --> 0:27:09.040
<v Speaker 1>really think that the public is going to be like, well,

0:27:09.080 --> 0:27:12.199
<v Speaker 1>the Niners aren't that good offensively. And I get it,

0:27:12.520 --> 0:27:16.119
<v Speaker 1>Jimmy g doesn't always look like he's in complete control.

0:27:16.160 --> 0:27:18.760
<v Speaker 1>He certainly looks like the type of guy who in

0:27:19.119 --> 0:27:22.399
<v Speaker 1>a spot he could fold. You know, it's possible, but

0:27:22.760 --> 0:27:26.080
<v Speaker 1>I really don't see it happening. In my opinion, whichever

0:27:26.119 --> 0:27:27.919
<v Speaker 1>side you like in this game, I wouldn't worry about

0:27:27.960 --> 0:27:30.080
<v Speaker 1>like running in to get it now, right. I mean,

0:27:30.119 --> 0:27:32.359
<v Speaker 1>if you're like, man, I really like the Chiefs right now,

0:27:32.400 --> 0:27:35.240
<v Speaker 1>I really think it's good. The line's not going to three.

0:27:35.480 --> 0:27:37.639
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, in my opinion, this is going

0:27:37.720 --> 0:27:39.720
<v Speaker 1>to stay right where it is, maybe one and a half.

0:27:39.840 --> 0:27:41.840
<v Speaker 1>I bet the public is probably going to come in.

0:27:41.840 --> 0:27:44.000
<v Speaker 1>I think it's gonna be pretty split generally speaking to

0:27:44.040 --> 0:27:46.480
<v Speaker 1>the extent the number of bets is probably going to

0:27:46.520 --> 0:27:48.560
<v Speaker 1>favor the Chiefs, and I think the money again is

0:27:48.600 --> 0:27:51.280
<v Speaker 1>probably going to be split roughly right down the middle.

0:27:51.320 --> 0:27:54.280
<v Speaker 1>But in my opinion, if you like this total, rich

0:27:54.440 --> 0:27:56.639
<v Speaker 1>you like over on this total? Is that correct at

0:27:56.680 --> 0:27:59.000
<v Speaker 1>fifty two and a half? Yeah, I gotta say yes,

0:27:59.240 --> 0:28:01.360
<v Speaker 1>I do as well, and the public probably does too.

0:28:01.480 --> 0:28:04.840
<v Speaker 1>Go hammer it right now, because that is something that's

0:28:04.880 --> 0:28:07.679
<v Speaker 1>gonna that is going up by It's gonna be fifty

0:28:07.680 --> 0:28:09.200
<v Speaker 1>four by the time the game hits. I wouldn't be

0:28:09.200 --> 0:28:12.560
<v Speaker 1>surprised it's fifty five, because that is something where bookmakers

0:28:12.600 --> 0:28:14.840
<v Speaker 1>are not gonna be able to get both sides of it, okay,

0:28:14.840 --> 0:28:16.880
<v Speaker 1>because I think even the sharp betters at this point

0:28:16.920 --> 0:28:18.280
<v Speaker 1>are not gonna look at this and be like, well,

0:28:18.280 --> 0:28:20.520
<v Speaker 1>of course this is gonna go under. I mean, the

0:28:20.600 --> 0:28:22.960
<v Speaker 1>Chiefs just have too many weapons to be able to

0:28:23.000 --> 0:28:25.040
<v Speaker 1>think like, well, you know, Richard Sherman could take care

0:28:25.080 --> 0:28:26.960
<v Speaker 1>of one. I mean, given the fact that it's Kelsey

0:28:27.200 --> 0:28:29.840
<v Speaker 1>and Tyreek Hill's pure speed. And again, it was good

0:28:29.840 --> 0:28:32.760
<v Speaker 1>to see Sammy Watkins remind everybody that he is a

0:28:32.880 --> 0:28:35.639
<v Speaker 1>legitimate player and he can show up when they really

0:28:35.640 --> 0:28:37.520
<v Speaker 1>need to. And again, Damian Williams didn't do a ton

0:28:37.560 --> 0:28:39.240
<v Speaker 1>on the ground today, but he is there and he's

0:28:39.240 --> 0:28:41.440
<v Speaker 1>good out of the backfield. So I think we both

0:28:41.480 --> 0:28:45.840
<v Speaker 1>see this game, you know, almost identically. I might lean

0:28:45.880 --> 0:28:48.640
<v Speaker 1>slightly towards the Niners on the spread. I don't have

0:28:48.680 --> 0:28:50.200
<v Speaker 1>a strong feel for it either way, and it sounds

0:28:50.240 --> 0:28:52.280
<v Speaker 1>like you don't really either, but you slightly lean towards

0:28:52.320 --> 0:28:53.120
<v Speaker 1>the Chiefs. Is that right?

0:28:53.520 --> 0:28:55.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah? I think the game line might just be more

0:28:55.680 --> 0:28:59.200
<v Speaker 2>about in game betting. Again, if you're in a territory

0:28:59.240 --> 0:29:01.520
<v Speaker 2>that not only allowed is this, but offers this option,

0:29:01.640 --> 0:29:04.880
<v Speaker 2>you might have a chance to get on whoever falls

0:29:04.960 --> 0:29:10.320
<v Speaker 2>down in this game, or maybe we're afraid of the

0:29:10.400 --> 0:29:15.320
<v Speaker 2>Niners and negative script again. So if it's the scenario,

0:29:15.360 --> 0:29:17.680
<v Speaker 2>it's really only one way. If the Niners get ahead,

0:29:17.680 --> 0:29:20.000
<v Speaker 2>maybe we're only going to have an opportunity to bet

0:29:20.040 --> 0:29:21.480
<v Speaker 2>on the Chiefs. I have to put a little more

0:29:21.680 --> 0:29:24.320
<v Speaker 2>thought into that, I will say so. Instead of just

0:29:24.480 --> 0:29:27.360
<v Speaker 2>you and I both gushing over the over, let me

0:29:27.400 --> 0:29:31.440
<v Speaker 2>get a Narrativeville real quick. What if both these teams

0:29:31.480 --> 0:29:34.080
<v Speaker 2>are just tight to start the game. Is that something

0:29:34.120 --> 0:29:36.880
<v Speaker 2>that could happen. We've got two quarterbacks starting in the

0:29:36.920 --> 0:29:40.880
<v Speaker 2>Super Bowl for the first time, maybe a little nervy

0:29:41.400 --> 0:29:45.479
<v Speaker 2>in the first quarter. Maybe Kyle Shanahan seeing signs of

0:29:45.520 --> 0:29:48.200
<v Speaker 2>twenty eight to three flashing in front of him and

0:29:48.240 --> 0:29:51.880
<v Speaker 2>that absolutely epic collapse of the Falcons when he was

0:29:51.920 --> 0:29:55.400
<v Speaker 2>offensive coordinator. Maybe that's what happens. Or it is South

0:29:55.400 --> 0:30:00.160
<v Speaker 2>Florida hard rock, I believe has an opening if we

0:30:00.160 --> 0:30:03.920
<v Speaker 2>get a South Florida rainstorm. It rained for the Colts

0:30:03.920 --> 0:30:05.719
<v Speaker 2>Bear Super Bowl last time we were in Miami.

0:30:05.800 --> 0:30:09.280
<v Speaker 1>That's right, No, it did. That's certainly a possibility. The

0:30:09.360 --> 0:30:13.200
<v Speaker 1>getting tight thing, Yeah, man, I'm stretching. I'm really stretching.

0:30:13.280 --> 0:30:16.400
<v Speaker 1>I'm stretching to find something to talk about something. No, no, no, Look,

0:30:16.600 --> 0:30:19.760
<v Speaker 1>it's certainly possible. And again you do have this, you

0:30:19.760 --> 0:30:21.600
<v Speaker 1>know thing where the last two games, in their two

0:30:21.600 --> 0:30:25.480
<v Speaker 1>playoff games, the Chiefs have started really really slowly, and

0:30:25.840 --> 0:30:28.280
<v Speaker 1>the Niners defense might be good enough. I don't think

0:30:28.280 --> 0:30:30.280
<v Speaker 1>any defense is really good enough, but they might be

0:30:30.360 --> 0:30:33.120
<v Speaker 1>good enough to not just be like, oh, you started slowly, well, good,

0:30:33.200 --> 0:30:34.719
<v Speaker 1>now you're going to just be able to put up

0:30:34.800 --> 0:30:36.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, fifty points on us like you can do

0:30:36.720 --> 0:30:39.400
<v Speaker 1>on every other team. They might be too good to

0:30:39.520 --> 0:30:43.200
<v Speaker 1>allow that to happen. So it's certainly possible. And again,

0:30:43.520 --> 0:30:45.680
<v Speaker 1>the one thing the Chiefs did, you know, and you

0:30:45.720 --> 0:30:47.920
<v Speaker 1>talked about it the fact that you just don't think

0:30:47.960 --> 0:30:50.640
<v Speaker 1>a team is going to be able to consistently run

0:30:50.680 --> 0:30:54.360
<v Speaker 1>the ball quite as much as the Titans were doing.

0:30:54.360 --> 0:30:57.160
<v Speaker 1>But again, you know, Baltimore had eight guys in the

0:30:57.200 --> 0:31:00.360
<v Speaker 1>box for like two thirds of Henry's runs, okay, and

0:31:00.400 --> 0:31:03.480
<v Speaker 1>he was still just going through them. I mean, I

0:31:03.480 --> 0:31:05.440
<v Speaker 1>think it was pretty impressive the way they were able

0:31:05.520 --> 0:31:07.320
<v Speaker 1>to take him down. And I get that, you know,

0:31:07.800 --> 0:31:10.000
<v Speaker 1>but the thing is, you know, you saw every time

0:31:10.040 --> 0:31:11.800
<v Speaker 1>ten I went back to pass. It wasn't like guys

0:31:11.800 --> 0:31:13.600
<v Speaker 1>were wide open or anything like that. You know, the

0:31:13.640 --> 0:31:16.040
<v Speaker 1>corners we were, you know, on Brown and they were

0:31:16.040 --> 0:31:18.160
<v Speaker 1>on Corey Davis. They were taking care of it. So

0:31:18.320 --> 0:31:21.280
<v Speaker 1>you know their defense is solid as well. So to

0:31:21.280 --> 0:31:25.240
<v Speaker 1>the extent both defensive step up. Sure, it's possible, but man,

0:31:25.320 --> 0:31:28.280
<v Speaker 1>even if they're tight, that's not gonna be forever. You know,

0:31:28.640 --> 0:31:30.800
<v Speaker 1>they're not gonna they're not they they You might you

0:31:30.880 --> 0:31:33.760
<v Speaker 1>might get a first quarter under. Okay, I'll give you

0:31:33.800 --> 0:31:35.959
<v Speaker 1>that one, but for me, I don't know. Man, as

0:31:36.000 --> 0:31:37.600
<v Speaker 1>soon as we're done with this, I'm gonna go pound

0:31:37.640 --> 0:31:41.480
<v Speaker 1>the over you know, a couple of times. But you know, again,

0:31:41.520 --> 0:31:44.000
<v Speaker 1>I've been I've been off on my chiefs over unders

0:31:44.000 --> 0:31:45.360
<v Speaker 1>for the last couple of weeks. So take that with

0:31:45.400 --> 0:31:47.400
<v Speaker 1>a grain of salt. But I like your style. And again,

0:31:47.440 --> 0:31:49.680
<v Speaker 1>we'll monitor the weather reports. If it's gonna be a monsoon.

0:31:50.040 --> 0:31:51.800
<v Speaker 1>You know, we talked to Kevin Roth a couple of

0:31:51.840 --> 0:31:54.440
<v Speaker 1>weeks ago, and certainly you know that's something that that

0:31:54.520 --> 0:31:56.800
<v Speaker 1>could make a difference if that's what happens it is Florida.

0:31:56.920 --> 0:32:00.040
<v Speaker 1>But in the end, man, absent that I just I

0:32:00.040 --> 0:32:00.560
<v Speaker 1>don't see it.

0:32:00.600 --> 0:32:03.400
<v Speaker 2>I hurts, Yeah, it hurts to like be over, really

0:32:03.480 --> 0:32:08.120
<v Speaker 2>it physically, I'm in pain staring at this number and

0:32:08.160 --> 0:32:09.320
<v Speaker 2>thinking that it's gonna go over.

0:32:09.680 --> 0:32:13.320
<v Speaker 1>I've literally just been under for like four weeks NonStop,

0:32:13.360 --> 0:32:15.360
<v Speaker 1>and that worked real well early on, right in the

0:32:15.360 --> 0:32:18.280
<v Speaker 1>wild card round, and you know it was everything was under.

0:32:18.320 --> 0:32:20.960
<v Speaker 1>But you know, suddenly that's a terrible bet. But whatever, man,

0:32:21.000 --> 0:32:22.959
<v Speaker 1>we'll be square, and it's the super Bowl. We'll have

0:32:23.040 --> 0:32:25.560
<v Speaker 1>eight thousand prop bets and either way, just go listen

0:32:25.640 --> 0:32:27.480
<v Speaker 1>to some Demi Levado and then you can really get

0:32:27.520 --> 0:32:30.640
<v Speaker 1>in there right on the length of the national anthem.

0:32:30.800 --> 0:32:33.960
<v Speaker 1>So all right, but that's gonna do it for today's show. Rich,

0:32:34.080 --> 0:32:35.760
<v Speaker 1>it was really great talking to you again. I thought

0:32:35.800 --> 0:32:38.240
<v Speaker 1>you brought a lot of wonderful insight, as you always do.

0:32:38.320 --> 0:32:42.560
<v Speaker 1>And again, you know, sometime in the next fifty years,

0:32:42.640 --> 0:32:45.680
<v Speaker 1>our Jets will make it. Probably don't tempt me.

0:32:46.080 --> 0:32:49.080
<v Speaker 2>The Titans really reminded me of the nine ten Jets

0:32:49.120 --> 0:32:52.480
<v Speaker 2>today exactly. Lot of balls bounced their way the first

0:32:52.520 --> 0:32:55.280
<v Speaker 2>two rounds, a lot of good matchups, but then you

0:32:55.360 --> 0:32:58.880
<v Speaker 2>get one game away and then life just smacks you

0:32:59.120 --> 0:32:59.840
<v Speaker 2>right in the face.

0:33:00.200 --> 0:33:02.640
<v Speaker 1>Well when the time comes and I'm sure will. We

0:33:02.720 --> 0:33:04.960
<v Speaker 1>may be eighty, but it'll come at some point. How

0:33:05.000 --> 0:33:07.040
<v Speaker 1>about we do a live show from Radio Row.

0:33:07.240 --> 0:33:08.760
<v Speaker 2>I am for that, so booked?

0:33:08.840 --> 0:33:11.600
<v Speaker 1>All right? Man. Well, in the meantime, remind everybody where

0:33:11.640 --> 0:33:12.880
<v Speaker 1>they can find more of you in your work.

0:33:13.000 --> 0:33:16.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. You can catch our podcast, grid Iron Gamble on

0:33:16.120 --> 0:33:21.040
<v Speaker 2>any podcatcher that you listen to, iTunes, Stitcher, Spotify, and

0:33:21.080 --> 0:33:23.960
<v Speaker 2>you can follow us on Twitter at grid Iron Gamble.

0:33:24.000 --> 0:33:27.959
<v Speaker 2>I'm at Rich t Ryan and enjoy this lead up

0:33:28.000 --> 0:33:29.160
<v Speaker 2>to the super Bowl, everybody.

0:33:29.440 --> 0:33:31.520
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, everybody, have a great time. And I want to

0:33:31.520 --> 0:33:34.200
<v Speaker 1>remind everybody before we go about bet MGM, where you

0:33:34.200 --> 0:33:36.160
<v Speaker 1>can get a risk free five hundred dollars bet if

0:33:36.160 --> 0:33:39.080
<v Speaker 1>you sign up for the BETMGM Sports app using our

0:33:39.120 --> 0:33:41.400
<v Speaker 1>promo code Harris. Given that the super Bowl is not

0:33:41.480 --> 0:33:43.520
<v Speaker 1>until two weeks from today, we're going to skip our

0:33:43.600 --> 0:33:46.120
<v Speaker 1>usual Thursday show this week. We will be back talking

0:33:46.160 --> 0:33:48.840
<v Speaker 1>about some of our best plays next week. I'll talk

0:33:48.880 --> 0:33:49.200
<v Speaker 1>to you then,