Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Ady
Speaker 1: Championship weekend is done and is on to the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: which should, as usual, be a monstrous event for sports betters.
Speaker 1: But with me to break down all things NFL is
Speaker 1: Rich Ryan, host of the Gridiron Damble Podcast. You can
Speaker 1: find Rich on Twitter at rich t Ryan Rich. How
Speaker 1: is your Sunday? It was Okay.
Speaker 2: We're gonna do our damn nest here to make this
Speaker 2: podcast more entertaining than the two games that we just saw.
Speaker 2: I feel almost as bad for the viewers as I
Speaker 2: do for the very tall, very luxurious buildings in Las Vegas,
Speaker 2: because I think I can see from here large fires.
Speaker 2: I think I can see things crumbling to the ground
Speaker 2: because both big favorites, both overs coming in not a
Speaker 2: good day for our friends in the desert.
Speaker 1: Okay, legitimately, number one, I thought there were actual fires,
Speaker 1: and I got nervous for a second when you started talking.
Speaker 1: And second, I mean I agree that the Sunday as
Speaker 1: a whole was not that exciting, except for the fact
Speaker 1: that right before we started recording, Rich dropped like six
Speaker 1: things on his soundboard and they were just random like
Speaker 1: dollar signs, cash registered things going on there. You see,
Speaker 1: he's got it all. He's got it all ready to go. Okay.
Speaker 1: So if you thought like, oh man, that Sunday was
Speaker 1: so boring from a betting perspective, it's all right, We're
Speaker 1: gonna make it all okay. Now, like last week, we're
Speaker 1: recording this on Sunday night, and immediately after the Sunday
Speaker 1: night game last week. I need a little bit of
Speaker 1: time just to break down what happened on that game
Speaker 1: in this one. This game, the Packers forty nine Ers
Speaker 1: game was over, I don't know, twenty minutes into it,
Speaker 1: so we've had a lot of time to kind of
Speaker 1: think on it. Still, the lines for the Super Bowl
Speaker 1: have been up for about forty five seconds. For me,
Speaker 1: that's when it's fun. We've got two weeks to dissect
Speaker 1: this game. We're going to break down all the angles,
Speaker 1: the player props, how long the national anthem is going
Speaker 1: to be, all that stuff. But being able to see
Speaker 1: how everything strikes us in the moment with today's games
Speaker 1: fresh in our minds without much time to break it down.
Speaker 1: That's when it's good. Sometimes your instant reaction turns out
Speaker 1: to be the best. So, Richard, shall we dive right in.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, I've been grinding Demi Lovado National Anthem tape, getting
Speaker 2: my hands on anything I can find for that problem.
Speaker 1: This is the reason why we bring you back on
Speaker 1: this podcast, rich But let's start with today's action. Chiefs
Speaker 1: thirty five Titans twenty four. This game look like it
Speaker 1: might go a bit differently here at the start, Titan
Speaker 1: said leads of ten to nothing and seventeen to seven
Speaker 1: in the end. The Chiefs offense just way too much.
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes throws for two hundred and ninety four yards
Speaker 1: and three touchdowns, two to Tyreek Hill, won a gorgeous
Speaker 1: sixty yard bomb to Sammy Watkins. He also runs into
Speaker 1: score on a preposterous twenty seven yard run toward the
Speaker 1: end of the first half. Everyone talks about how exciting
Speaker 1: and dynamic Lamar Jacks and is, and he is, but
Speaker 1: you know, a healthy Patrick Mahomes is nearly as exciting. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs defense does the one thing that nobody's been
Speaker 1: able to do, and I don't know, ten weeks and
Speaker 1: that's bottle up. Derrick Henry just nineteen for sixty nine.
Speaker 1: On the ground. Ryan Hannell does throw for two hundred
Speaker 1: nine yards and two touchdowns, but without the ability to
Speaker 1: move the ball with Henry effectively, those are just kind
Speaker 1: of empty yards. So we'll get to the matchup with
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers in a bit, but break down
Speaker 1: this game for me. What were your general impressions.
Speaker 2: So, yeah, this is healthy Patrick Mahomes and that's something
Speaker 2: you brought up, and it's something that's really important, specifically
Speaker 2: with that twenty plus yard touchdown run that concluded the
Speaker 2: first half first time these two teams met. Mahomes is
Speaker 2: coming off of a knee injury that's going to require
Speaker 2: offseason surgery, although minor, if there is a such thing
Speaker 2: as minor surgery, and he did not have a single
Speaker 2: rushing attempt in that game.
Speaker 1: I believe that was.
Speaker 2: Only one of three games on the regular season that
Speaker 2: he didn't have a rushing attempt. Still, even though he
Speaker 2: was a statue, he dropped four to thirty three on
Speaker 2: their heads on the road. And now we had a
Speaker 2: fully healthy Patrick Mahomes and a fully dialed up Chiefs
Speaker 2: offense that had eight yards per play and pretty much
Speaker 2: did whatever they wanted to when they wanted to save
Speaker 2: for that first drive, which is very mirrored almost perfectly
Speaker 2: the start of last week bad drop by Kelsey. Things
Speaker 2: get off slow, but then the Chiefs just start rolling.
Speaker 2: I mean, is there any other time when a team
Speaker 2: gets down multiple scores and you're just not concerned. That's
Speaker 2: what makes this chief seem so dangerous and puts the
Speaker 2: fear of God in you if you're holding a ticket
Speaker 2: for the other team. There is no lead that's really
Speaker 2: safe with these Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 1: And let me ask you something, what side did you
Speaker 1: have on this game? Both on the spread and the total.
Speaker 2: So Chiefs minus seven and a half was my favorite
Speaker 2: pick of the week. I didn't have much of a
Speaker 2: lean on the total. On Gridiron Gamble, I gave out
Speaker 2: a very unorthodox parlay for this week because I don't
Speaker 2: know if you've noticed, but there's just been a war
Speaker 2: on teasers from the books and you have to pay
Speaker 2: up to like minus won forty minus won forty five
Speaker 2: juice on some of these two team teasers. So I
Speaker 2: gave out Chiefs minus seven and a half parlayed with
Speaker 2: Niners money line at plus one sixty, I wasn't strong
Speaker 2: enough to get Niners minus the seven and a half.
Speaker 2: Ultimately they smashed and covered as well. But I thought
Speaker 2: this Chiefs line should have been north of double digits.
Speaker 2: This is a really bad matchup for Tennessee.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I could see it, but I'll be honest,
Speaker 1: I had bought in the other way. You know, I
Speaker 1: thought what I was really most impressed by in this
Speaker 1: whole thing, it's not the offense, because this is the offense. Now.
Speaker 1: You you know, with Mahomes being you know, as close
Speaker 1: to full health as he's going to get without surgery,
Speaker 1: this is what the offense is going to be. They're
Speaker 1: completely unstoppable at the moment, unless you know, maybe well
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens in the super Bowl with the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers and their defense, but a defense like Tennessee's,
Speaker 1: which is, you know, solid against the run but mediocre
Speaker 1: against the pass, they really didn't have much of a chance.
Speaker 1: One of the reasons why I kind of leaned towards
Speaker 1: Tennessee getting more than the touchdown was because again I
Speaker 1: thought that, you know, the team sort of the whole
Speaker 1: whatever the phrase is, the hole is greater than some
Speaker 1: of their parts. Oh yeah, for sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, their output was greater than the some of its parts.
Speaker 2: And that's a testament to how well Rabels coached this
Speaker 2: team and how well they've performed in the playoffs. And
Speaker 2: they were great matchups against I mean, styles make fights.
Speaker 2: The NFL is such a week to week league, which
Speaker 2: is why the Niners are so crazy. They can win
Speaker 2: in so many different ways. But the Niners Week one
Speaker 2: of the playoffs, they get really a dusty Patriots team
Speaker 2: and really handle business on the road. Last week, you
Speaker 2: talked about it, the run stopping ability the Titans, the
Speaker 2: spine of their defense, whether Beach Reil Casey up front
Speaker 2: or their linebackers and Jayon Brown and Rashaan Evans, and
Speaker 2: then back in the safeties with Kenny Vacaro and Kevin Byer,
Speaker 2: the spine of their defense is their strength. So that
Speaker 2: was a terrible matchup for the Ravens. And then the
Speaker 2: Evens go zero for seven basically in the turnover battle
Speaker 2: if you include turnovers on downs. So they just really
Speaker 2: had no shot in that game from hell. But then, yeah,
Speaker 2: they come into a game that's against the Chiefs team
Speaker 2: that's gonna stretch you horizontally with their passing a top,
Speaker 2: not just vertically, and the Titan secondary just can't compete
Speaker 2: with that. Who and who really who can in the NFL?
Speaker 1: Well, we're gonna find out next week whether anybody really
Speaker 1: are in two weeks where there anybody really can. Let
Speaker 1: me ask you a couple of things on this game.
Speaker 1: I mean, they bottle up Henry, which is something I
Speaker 1: didn't think they had a chance to do, right. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, to the extent the Chiefs defense has a strength,
Speaker 1: it's against the pass, not necessarily the run. Henry had
Speaker 1: been as unstoppable. You know, he had this stretch as
Speaker 1: good as any running back had ever had over an
Speaker 1: eight game stretch, nineteen for sixty nine. Do you think
Speaker 1: that was more about Henry kind of finally finally wearing
Speaker 1: down after getting you know, thirty plus carries for a
Speaker 1: few weeks in a row and having all this work,
Speaker 1: or do you think that, you know, the Chiefs defense
Speaker 1: it's kind of rebattened, and you know, Chris Jones playing,
Speaker 1: he was, you know, a game time call just kind
Speaker 1: of up their entire defense or what which side was
Speaker 1: it was more about the Chiefs defense or more about
Speaker 1: Henry finally running at a gas do you think.
Speaker 2: To be honest, I think it's more about the Titans
Speaker 2: not being willing to be more aggressive and throwing the football.
Speaker 2: It's really easy to scheme against the traditional run because
Speaker 2: you can stack the box and just be very aggressive
Speaker 2: up front. It's much more difficult when you have, let's say,
Speaker 2: a running passer like Lamar, because you can't just scheme
Speaker 2: for one thing. You have to contain on the edges
Speaker 2: and then also be stout.
Speaker 1: Up the middle.
Speaker 2: But when you can put all these resources in the box,
Speaker 2: and granted you're right, the Patriots and the Ravens didn't
Speaker 2: have much success doing this, but there was one specific
Speaker 2: time in this game, I believe it was a third
Speaker 2: and short or fourth and short where the Chiefs Spagnoler
Speaker 2: literally rolled out goal line defense at the forty nine
Speaker 2: yard line and you just have to be able to
Speaker 2: check to a slant there or some kind of pass
Speaker 2: if you're an offense operating in twenty twenty. There's also
Speaker 2: other opportunities where Ryan Tannehill is seeing single high and
Speaker 2: he's got two guys on the left that can run
Speaker 2: a combo slot fade something, and you're going to beat
Speaker 2: both man and zone in a lot of those cases,
Speaker 2: and the Titans just kind of turtled and kept running
Speaker 2: the ball. This is why running the ball isn't sustainable
Speaker 2: as a primary method of winning football games, because it's
Speaker 2: just so much easier to scheme against. So I'm not
Speaker 2: really going to fault Henry or even this offensive line.
Speaker 2: I just think it's really really hard for running, especially
Speaker 2: traditional running, to be your optimal output on offense.
Speaker 1: All right, how about the slow starts? Okay, you know
Speaker 1: you can right off last week against the Texans because
Speaker 1: they're coming off the pie right, so you're sort of like, okay,
Speaker 1: maybe you're not really ready for it. Texans, you know,
Speaker 1: have a couple of really explosive plays and get out
Speaker 1: to that huge lead before the Chiefs come roaring back.
Speaker 1: This one, you know, it's not quite as dramatic, and
Speaker 1: Tennessee doesn't have the offense to make it quite as dramatic.
Speaker 1: But again, they fall down ten nothing, they fall down
Speaker 1: seventeen to seven. And you can recover against the Texans,
Speaker 1: who have a subpar defense. You can recover against the Titans,
Speaker 1: who have a solid defense but not one that really
Speaker 1: you know, plays against your strengths and not the type
Speaker 1: of team that's going to put up a ton of points.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you're going to be able to
Speaker 1: survive having one of these slow starts against the Niners.
Speaker 1: What do you think is going on? Out of curiosity
Speaker 1: with the fact that in both of these playoffs games
Speaker 1: the Chiefs have started really slow? I mean, is it coaching?
Speaker 1: Is it just something where I don't know, it takes
Speaker 1: a little while. And are they going to be able
Speaker 1: to solve that when they go into the super Bowl
Speaker 1: because they've got two weeks now, you know they're coming
Speaker 1: off that buy. You know, against the Texans they were
Speaker 1: really slow, and again it worries me a little bit
Speaker 1: to see them slow out of the gate here.
Speaker 2: This is slightly concerning too, because the Niners thrive in
Speaker 2: positive game scripts, like when they can pin their ears
Speaker 2: back on that defensive front and when they can just
Speaker 2: get whoever is running the ball. Tonight, it was all
Speaker 2: world Raheem Moster getting downhill. They're a very dangerous outfut
Speaker 2: Mo Nwara on our podcast, one of his favorite bets
Speaker 2: this weekend was literally, if anybody gets up two scores
Speaker 2: live in this Packers Niners game. Just bet that team
Speaker 2: because the Niners in negative script could be scary. We've
Speaker 2: not really seen it yet, and we know what the
Speaker 2: Niners aren't positive script. They just roll these teams over.
Speaker 2: In terms of the why. Maybe it's just arrogance. Maybe
Speaker 2: it's just playing at home, knowing your favorite, knowing you're
Speaker 2: likely to get through to the next round. Hopefully it's
Speaker 2: not a hangover thing, because then these two weeks will
Speaker 2: play into that even more, and you cannot get off
Speaker 2: to a slow start against the Niners on a neutral field.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I haven't been able to pinpoint it. I thought like,
Speaker 1: all right, there's got to be something that's kind of
Speaker 1: causing this, because it was really concerning to see them,
Speaker 1: not necessarily for me as somebody who leaned both towards
Speaker 1: the under and towards Tennessee in this game. So I
Speaker 1: was like, great, all right, perfect, this is kind of
Speaker 1: exactly how I saw this playing out. The Titans are
Speaker 1: gonna be able to run down there. They're gonna have
Speaker 1: enough on defense to kind of keep this game close
Speaker 1: enough to cover the more than a touchdown spread. But
Speaker 1: in the end, it's really a little strange, and it
Speaker 1: does make me a little concerned as we get into
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. But before we get there, let's talk
Speaker 1: about the second game, which, again, you know, thirty five
Speaker 1: twenty four, This game was probably mostly over in roughly
Speaker 1: the third quarter. You get into this second game here
Speaker 1: with the Niners thirty seven the Packers twenty, and this
Speaker 1: game was over really early. Rogers did what he could
Speaker 1: in the second half to make it a game, but
Speaker 1: there was just no stopping the forty nine Ers offense
Speaker 1: right now, or should I say as you talked about
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers running game, I mean I talked
Speaker 1: about it with Adam Burke this week when we were
Speaker 1: breaking down this week's games. There just didn't seem to
Speaker 1: be a path for the Packers to win this game.
Speaker 1: Like I tried to play this game out several different ways.
Speaker 1: I could not find a way at all for the
Speaker 1: Packers to win this game. Like you, I wasn't, you know,
Speaker 1: jumping for joy about the seven and a half points
Speaker 1: spread or wherever it was seven seven and a half.
Speaker 1: I couldn't, you know, jump all over that, because that's
Speaker 1: a big number when you're in the championship week. Even
Speaker 1: in the other game, it's a big number. But I
Speaker 1: felt absolutely confident that the Niners were gonna win this
Speaker 1: game because I just didn't see how it was possible
Speaker 1: on either side of the ball that the Packers were
Speaker 1: gonna have the upper hand, and they really didn't. The
Speaker 1: final score not quite as bad as when these teams
Speaker 1: met in Week twelve, but it might as well have
Speaker 1: been Jimmy Garoppolo through eight passes, not completed through eight passes.
Speaker 1: That is not the way the NFL is supposed to work.
Speaker 1: As you mentioned earlier, all the rushing game for the Niners,
Speaker 1: and specifically were he Moster because Tevin Coleman left with
Speaker 1: a shoulder injury. I believe he was carted off, so
Speaker 1: I don't know if we have any details on that yet.
Speaker 1: I have not seen any, but certainly he's got two
Speaker 1: weeks to get ready for the Super Bowl, so unless
Speaker 1: it's something really serious, hopefully he can make it back
Speaker 1: for that game. Mostard has two hundred and twenty yards
Speaker 1: rushing on twenty nine carries. Matt Brida meanwhile, you know,
Speaker 1: used to think of this as a three headed attack,
Speaker 1: just one carry for two yards. I don't know whether
Speaker 1: or not he's still in the doghouse because of that. Fumble.
Speaker 1: I didn't see any injury, whether or not it's that fumble,
Speaker 1: whether it's just that they have two weeks so they
Speaker 1: were just going to go with Mostart, But whatever it is,
Speaker 1: Mostart was absolutely dynamic, and really it's all about the defense.
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers completed nearly eighty percent of his passes three
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty six yards, but he turns it over
Speaker 1: three times. And that's basically about as empty a line
Speaker 1: as you can have. The Niners sack them three times
Speaker 1: their secondary. When you have d Ford and you compare
Speaker 1: him with Bosa and Armstead, and when you have Kwan
Speaker 1: Alexander to stop the run and you have Tart back
Speaker 1: it even at defense like the Chiefs. We're going to
Speaker 1: get into that game. You know, we'll talk right now
Speaker 1: just about the Niners. I mean, how good is this
Speaker 1: Niners team right now? Talk to me about this game.
Speaker 1: This game was over, you know, ten minutes in.
Speaker 2: It's ridiculous when Kwan Alexander is a luxury item because
Speaker 2: Drake Greenlaw is getting as much burned, if not more
Speaker 2: than Kwan in that linebacking corps. We know Fred Warner's
Speaker 2: been tremendous there, but Greenlaw is the guy that made
Speaker 2: the tackle against Jacob Hollister to win the de vision.
Speaker 2: He made a very massive tackle against Aaron Jones in
Speaker 2: this game on a third and short whether Rogers tried
Speaker 2: to throw out a quick flat pass there and Greenlaw
Speaker 2: just ran it down and tackled him perfectly. So when
Speaker 2: somebody like Kwan is a luxury item, things are certainly
Speaker 2: getting get ugly. I was also fascinated that Richard Sherman,
Speaker 2: who's traditionally a left cornerback, traveled to the right side
Speaker 2: of the field a couple times in this game a
Speaker 2: little gameplay there, which is a little fascinating. Specifically, I
Speaker 2: saw stat going around that Rogers's QBR when throwing left
Speaker 2: was I believe thirty first in the league and fourth
Speaker 2: throwing right. So I really thought that they were just
Speaker 2: going to keep Sherm right and offense right and make
Speaker 2: Rogers throw to DeVante on the left hand side. But
Speaker 2: they moved Sherm around, which was fascinating, and then Sheran
Speaker 2: puts the jets on there to pad some stats and
Speaker 2: get the interception at the end. Yeah, this Niners defense
Speaker 2: is tremendous. They're tremendously coached by Robert Salah, and when
Speaker 2: Kansas City takes the field on offense in the Super Bowl,
Speaker 2: this will be iron on iron and it is going
Speaker 2: to be fascinating to watch.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I hate to say it, man, Like
Speaker 1: you know, we do this. We've got two games to
Speaker 1: get through and then a super Bowl to talk about.
Speaker 1: But there's just nothing to break down from this game, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, in the end, the Niners were completely dominant.
Speaker 1: Most people thought they were going to be completely dominant.
Speaker 1: These two teams played again, like I don't know, six
Speaker 1: weeks ago, it looked almost identical. So how about we
Speaker 1: just move on? Are you good to that? Because we've
Speaker 1: got a juicy, juicy Super Bowl coming up here, and
Speaker 1: I think we really just need to break that down
Speaker 1: and we can move on from this game. An amazing
Speaker 1: effort by the Niners. But what do you think you
Speaker 1: ready to go just to the Super Bowl?
Speaker 2: Absolutely, let's do it.
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Speaker 1: here we go. This is what kind of everybody wanted
Speaker 1: when we had the four teams left forty nine ers
Speaker 1: versus Chiefs is certainly the most compelling matchup for the
Speaker 1: consensus lines. Right now, I am seeing the Chiefs at
Speaker 1: minus one and a half and the total hovering at
Speaker 1: fifty two and a half. This is trending up. I
Speaker 1: saw it at fifty one and a half at places
Speaker 1: when it opened. I'm seeing it at fifty three in
Speaker 1: some spots. But for our purposes, let's look at the
Speaker 1: consensus line with fifty two and a half. Last time
Speaker 1: these two teams met Jimmy Garoppolo towards ACL, So let's
Speaker 1: hope this one turns out differently. Why don't you just
Speaker 1: go ahead and give your early impressions of it and
Speaker 1: we can have some back and forth.
Speaker 2: I think the line's really fair, really sharp. I guess
Speaker 2: it would come out around Chiefs minus one to half
Speaker 2: point heavier. I could see it going as high as two.
Speaker 2: This is the most interesting book making game for me
Speaker 2: because it differs so much from every other NFL game,
Speaker 2: even including Championship Weekend. Because the amount of volume in
Speaker 2: normal people betting in this game is going to make
Speaker 2: it so that Vegas or whoever is your bookmaker if
Speaker 2: you're in an eligible territory. Now, now that we're finally
Speaker 2: breaking down some laws. They can make money just off
Speaker 2: of volume alone and charging Viigan this game when normally
Speaker 2: and they don't take very large positions. But normally a
Speaker 2: lot of these books tend to have an opinion on
Speaker 2: the game, and mainly that's just because the market is
Speaker 2: usually so heavy on one side that they can't control
Speaker 2: the fact that there's going to be more money on
Speaker 2: a certain side. But with these two teams, and with
Speaker 2: this line being short of a field goal, I think
Speaker 2: action is going to be very evenly split. And I
Speaker 2: think our friends in the desert will be able to
Speaker 2: lick their wounds after this championship weekend and just kind
Speaker 2: of make money off of the big So at this
Speaker 2: time I have the slightest of leans for Kansas City,
Speaker 2: and I actually kind of think this total is really low,
Speaker 2: and that's a total fish opinion, but I think that
Speaker 2: normally good offense is going to beat good defense. So
Speaker 2: I think Kansas It is going to be able to
Speaker 2: set the pace in this game, even if they get
Speaker 2: behind early. I'm not as afraid of the Niners clamping down,
Speaker 2: even Rogers. We saw Rogers faint a comeback just now,
Speaker 2: scoring some garbage time points, throwing to Davante Adams, and
Speaker 2: then something Lizards, something Kumero. That other tight end eighty
Speaker 2: seven name is escaping me. But these casuals like practice
Speaker 2: squad guys. So I think the Chiefs will be able
Speaker 2: to set the pace and score some points in this game,
Speaker 2: and the Niners can do it in a multiple multitude
Speaker 2: of ways. So slightly on the Chiefs at that number.
Speaker 2: But I do like the over which makes me feel
Speaker 2: like a complete fish.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really think that I have like six things
Speaker 1: that I want to respond to with what you said.
Speaker 1: None of it is wrong, by the way. First of all,
Speaker 1: Jay Sternberger, I think is the tight end that you're
Speaker 1: looking for. And frankly, you know, the one thing I
Speaker 1: think we probably should say throughout this thing is it's
Speaker 1: pretty amazing that the Packers, you know, I get that
Speaker 1: their point differential wasn't great, but it's pretty amazing that
Speaker 1: they were able to do what they were able to
Speaker 1: do with you know, an okay defense, nothing crazy. They
Speaker 1: could be beaten on the ground and legitimately one pass catcher, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, Devonte Adams. Alan Lazard was your number two
Speaker 1: and he is not a number two wide receiver and
Speaker 1: the corpse of Jimmy Graham was your number three. It
Speaker 1: just was not happening. So the fact that they made
Speaker 1: it this far is pretty awesome to see. And you know,
Speaker 1: I love Rogers and I hope he gets one more
Speaker 1: shot at it. Now going to this game, let's talk
Speaker 1: about a couple of things. Just let's take a step back,
Speaker 1: just for our listeners in case they're not quite as
Speaker 1: sort of sharp or understanding of the betting universe. What
Speaker 1: you've said is I think absolutely correct, particularly with this line,
Speaker 1: but generally in the Super Bowl. There's so much volume
Speaker 1: on this game that Vegas and we'll just call it Vegas,
Speaker 1: but any sportsbook. I like your lowering talk, by the way,
Speaker 1: where you tried to be very careful about who can
Speaker 1: bet and who can't very good in this game. The
Speaker 1: volume is so much that bookmakers are going to be
Speaker 1: able to come out ahead just by the viig. But
Speaker 1: that is not I think there's a misconception by the way,
Speaker 1: that that is the way that you know betting works,
Speaker 1: and that really all that bookmakers want is even action
Speaker 1: on both sides so that they can just make money
Speaker 1: off the big That's not really the case. Generally speaking,
Speaker 1: I mean, sure, if that happens, that's fine, that's great,
Speaker 1: they'll do it. But generally speaking, bookmakers are fine to
Speaker 1: take a side. Bookmakers are fine right to say, this
Speaker 1: is where we're gonna have liability, and we are okay
Speaker 1: with that. So in this game, you know, the point
Speaker 1: you bright up brought up, I think is a great one,
Speaker 1: which is the fact that in this game, the side
Speaker 1: doesn't really matter. This line is sort of perfectly said.
Speaker 1: I completely agree. I really have no strong lean on
Speaker 1: this game myself, and basically all you and I have
Speaker 1: done this entire year is break down every single game.
Speaker 1: So the fact that we're looking at this like I don't.
Speaker 2: Know whatever, yeah, pretty much right.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's what it's gonna be, and that's what
Speaker 1: the public's gonna be. So I think that's good. The
Speaker 1: second thing is that again you talked about the over,
Speaker 1: and I agree with you. I mean, wherever it is
Speaker 1: right now, let's call it fifty two and a half,
Speaker 1: it's not ending at fifty two and a half, because
Speaker 1: you know, guys like us I have been on the
Speaker 1: under in the last two Chiefs games. And I think
Speaker 1: there were a couple of things number one. I think
Speaker 1: I was not giving full credit to how much Mahomes
Speaker 1: has completely gotten over you know, his his ailment and
Speaker 1: how much he looks one hundred percent because they really
Speaker 1: are a completely different offense when that happens, because remember,
Speaker 1: towards the end of the season, they've gotten under a
Speaker 1: whole bunch. So, you know, and both these teams are
Speaker 1: brilliant offensively. Okay, I get it that sometimes Jimmy Garoppolo
Speaker 1: just doesn't throw because they can just run. But you know,
Speaker 1: you've got two of the most brilliant offensive minds coaching
Speaker 1: both teams. And the thing is that, generally speaking, public's
Speaker 1: love overs, right, the general sort of you know this
Speaker 1: is a huge generality, but the public love's overs and
Speaker 1: you know, the sharp play more often than not is
Speaker 1: the under because public betters, You're like, oh, they're going
Speaker 1: to score, they're going to do a lot of stuff
Speaker 1: they want to go over. So the fact that you
Speaker 1: and I are again both looking at this game and
Speaker 1: being like, oh, yeah, this is going over if for Noah,
Speaker 1: the reason this is just not gonna be a defensive struggle,
Speaker 1: Like there's just no way not With how well these
Speaker 1: two coaches can can devise a game plan on offense
Speaker 1: when they have two weeks to prepare. And remember, the
Speaker 1: Chiefs are third in offensive DVOA and that's including a
Speaker 1: lot of the time when Mahomes was hurt. The Niners
Speaker 1: are seventh. The Chiefs are fifth in the league. In
Speaker 1: points per game, the Niners are second, the Chiefs are six,
Speaker 1: and yards per game the Niners are fourth. The big
Speaker 1: thing though, again, and this is really what we need
Speaker 1: to talk about necessarily, is you know, putting aside the
Speaker 1: whole back door over like basically what you had here.
Speaker 1: You know that this game which was done that the
Speaker 1: Packers couldn't do anything offensively whatsoever, winds up at fifty
Speaker 1: seven points, right because in the end the Niners are
Speaker 1: just kind of sitting back and saying whatever. Putting that aside,
Speaker 1: Is there any chance, I mean, I just want to
Speaker 1: talk through this. The Niners are second in defensive DVOA. Okay,
Speaker 1: they they're at full strength right now. They're gonna be rested,
Speaker 1: they're gonna be ready to go. Is there any chance
Speaker 1: that they can come out and shut down Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 1: and the Chiefs?
Speaker 2: Well, I think we just have to define what shutdown
Speaker 2: means I think they can make it tough for the Chiefs. Sure,
Speaker 2: I think that's a reality. But I just think that
Speaker 2: the way that the rules legislate the ability to throw
Speaker 2: the ball, whether it be things like defensive holding or
Speaker 2: pass interference, that late pass interference to the Chiefs a
Speaker 2: little bit of a ticki tac call, But by the
Speaker 2: letter of the law, you cannot interfere with an offensive
Speaker 2: player's ability to get to the ball if your head
Speaker 2: has not turned the entire time when you're competing.
Speaker 1: For the ball.
Speaker 2: So I just I really truly believe that good offense
Speaker 2: is always going to beat good defense, or at least
Speaker 2: have success. Maybe beat just not the right operational term
Speaker 2: to use there. And even if the Niners, who have
Speaker 2: a great defense, are able to limit the Chiefs, I
Speaker 2: still think they're like a walking twenty one points at
Speaker 2: a stone minute. I mean, let you brought up a
Speaker 2: really good point about the Niners too. The Niners can score.
Speaker 2: There were ninety four points scored in their game against
Speaker 2: the Saints, so they can shoot out. I just I
Speaker 2: just I just like you. You put it perfectly. Two
Speaker 2: great offensive minds, and there are certainly even though the
Speaker 2: Niners are stout, there's still deficiencies there to be taken
Speaker 2: advantage of. And just the way the Chiefs spreads you horizontally,
Speaker 2: somebody's gonna be open and Mahomes is gonna make that
Speaker 2: throw and just hopefully Kelsey and Tyreek Hill can can
Speaker 2: hold on to it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just I completely agree. I'm just trying to
Speaker 1: basically see, like, is there anyway I don't see it
Speaker 1: at this point. I abstinine injury. I don't see how
Speaker 1: you can stop Mahomes, especially, you know, just for another reason.
Speaker 1: Then again, even if he gets rushed by you know,
Speaker 1: all the guys up front, he's so fast and he's
Speaker 1: so brilliant with his legs as well, now that he's
Speaker 1: basically fully healthy, that he's gonna be able to get
Speaker 1: things done regardless. It really is some thing where again,
Speaker 1: I don't you know, they scored thirty seven points in
Speaker 1: this game and they didn't throw whatsoever. So I don't
Speaker 1: really think that the public is going to be like, well,
Speaker 1: the Niners aren't that good offensively. And I get it,
Speaker 1: Jimmy g doesn't always look like he's in complete control.
Speaker 1: He certainly looks like the type of guy who in
Speaker 1: a spot he could fold. You know, it's possible, but
Speaker 1: I really don't see it happening. In my opinion, whichever
Speaker 1: side you like in this game, I wouldn't worry about
Speaker 1: like running in to get it now, right. I mean,
Speaker 1: if you're like, man, I really like the Chiefs right now,
Speaker 1: I really think it's good. The line's not going to three.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, in my opinion, this is going
Speaker 1: to stay right where it is, maybe one and a half.
Speaker 1: I bet the public is probably going to come in.
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be pretty split generally speaking to
Speaker 1: the extent the number of bets is probably going to
Speaker 1: favor the Chiefs, and I think the money again is
Speaker 1: probably going to be split roughly right down the middle.
Speaker 1: But in my opinion, if you like this total, rich
Speaker 1: you like over on this total? Is that correct at
Speaker 1: fifty two and a half? Yeah, I gotta say yes,
Speaker 1: I do as well, and the public probably does too.
Speaker 1: Go hammer it right now, because that is something that's
Speaker 1: gonna that is going up by It's gonna be fifty
Speaker 1: four by the time the game hits. I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: surprised it's fifty five, because that is something where bookmakers
Speaker 1: are not gonna be able to get both sides of it, okay,
Speaker 1: because I think even the sharp betters at this point
Speaker 1: are not gonna look at this and be like, well,
Speaker 1: of course this is gonna go under. I mean, the
Speaker 1: Chiefs just have too many weapons to be able to
Speaker 1: think like, well, you know, Richard Sherman could take care
Speaker 1: of one. I mean, given the fact that it's Kelsey
Speaker 1: and Tyreek Hill's pure speed. And again, it was good
Speaker 1: to see Sammy Watkins remind everybody that he is a
Speaker 1: legitimate player and he can show up when they really
Speaker 1: need to. And again, Damian Williams didn't do a ton
Speaker 1: on the ground today, but he is there and he's
Speaker 1: good out of the backfield. So I think we both
Speaker 1: see this game, you know, almost identically. I might lean
Speaker 1: slightly towards the Niners on the spread. I don't have
Speaker 1: a strong feel for it either way, and it sounds
Speaker 1: like you don't really either, but you slightly lean towards
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Is that right?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think the game line might just be more
Speaker 2: about in game betting. Again, if you're in a territory
Speaker 2: that not only allowed is this, but offers this option,
Speaker 2: you might have a chance to get on whoever falls
Speaker 2: down in this game, or maybe we're afraid of the
Speaker 2: Niners and negative script again. So if it's the scenario,
Speaker 2: it's really only one way. If the Niners get ahead,
Speaker 2: maybe we're only going to have an opportunity to bet
Speaker 2: on the Chiefs. I have to put a little more
Speaker 2: thought into that, I will say so. Instead of just
Speaker 2: you and I both gushing over the over, let me
Speaker 2: get a Narrativeville real quick. What if both these teams
Speaker 2: are just tight to start the game. Is that something
Speaker 2: that could happen. We've got two quarterbacks starting in the
Speaker 2: Super Bowl for the first time, maybe a little nervy
Speaker 2: in the first quarter. Maybe Kyle Shanahan seeing signs of
Speaker 2: twenty eight to three flashing in front of him and
Speaker 2: that absolutely epic collapse of the Falcons when he was
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator. Maybe that's what happens. Or it is South
Speaker 2: Florida hard rock, I believe has an opening if we
Speaker 2: get a South Florida rainstorm. It rained for the Colts
Speaker 2: Bear Super Bowl last time we were in Miami.
Speaker 1: That's right, No, it did. That's certainly a possibility. The
Speaker 1: getting tight thing, Yeah, man, I'm stretching. I'm really stretching.
Speaker 1: I'm stretching to find something to talk about something. No, no, no, Look,
Speaker 1: it's certainly possible. And again you do have this, you
Speaker 1: know thing where the last two games, in their two
Speaker 1: playoff games, the Chiefs have started really really slowly, and
Speaker 1: the Niners defense might be good enough. I don't think
Speaker 1: any defense is really good enough, but they might be
Speaker 1: good enough to not just be like, oh, you started slowly, well, good,
Speaker 1: now you're going to just be able to put up
Speaker 1: you know, fifty points on us like you can do
Speaker 1: on every other team. They might be too good to
Speaker 1: allow that to happen. So it's certainly possible. And again,
Speaker 1: the one thing the Chiefs did, you know, and you
Speaker 1: talked about it the fact that you just don't think
Speaker 1: a team is going to be able to consistently run
Speaker 1: the ball quite as much as the Titans were doing.
Speaker 1: But again, you know, Baltimore had eight guys in the
Speaker 1: box for like two thirds of Henry's runs, okay, and
Speaker 1: he was still just going through them. I mean, I
Speaker 1: think it was pretty impressive the way they were able
Speaker 1: to take him down. And I get that, you know,
Speaker 1: but the thing is, you know, you saw every time
Speaker 1: ten I went back to pass. It wasn't like guys
Speaker 1: were wide open or anything like that. You know, the
Speaker 1: corners we were, you know, on Brown and they were
Speaker 1: on Corey Davis. They were taking care of it. So
Speaker 1: you know their defense is solid as well. So to
Speaker 1: the extent both defensive step up. Sure, it's possible, but man,
Speaker 1: even if they're tight, that's not gonna be forever. You know,
Speaker 1: they're not gonna they're not they they You might you
Speaker 1: might get a first quarter under. Okay, I'll give you
Speaker 1: that one, but for me, I don't know. Man, as
Speaker 1: soon as we're done with this, I'm gonna go pound
Speaker 1: the over you know, a couple of times. But you know, again,
Speaker 1: I've been I've been off on my chiefs over unders
Speaker 1: for the last couple of weeks. So take that with
Speaker 1: a grain of salt. But I like your style. And again,
Speaker 1: we'll monitor the weather reports. If it's gonna be a monsoon.
Speaker 1: You know, we talked to Kevin Roth a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks ago, and certainly you know that's something that that
Speaker 1: could make a difference if that's what happens it is Florida.
Speaker 1: But in the end, man, absent that I just I
Speaker 1: don't see it.
Speaker 2: I hurts, Yeah, it hurts to like be over, really
Speaker 2: it physically, I'm in pain staring at this number and
Speaker 2: thinking that it's gonna go over.
Speaker 1: I've literally just been under for like four weeks NonStop,
Speaker 1: and that worked real well early on, right in the
Speaker 1: wild card round, and you know it was everything was under.
Speaker 1: But you know, suddenly that's a terrible bet. But whatever, man,
Speaker 1: we'll be square, and it's the super Bowl. We'll have
Speaker 1: eight thousand prop bets and either way, just go listen
Speaker 1: to some Demi Levado and then you can really get
Speaker 1: in there right on the length of the national anthem.
Speaker 1: So all right, but that's gonna do it for today's show. Rich,
Speaker 1: it was really great talking to you again. I thought
Speaker 1: you brought a lot of wonderful insight, as you always do.
Speaker 1: And again, you know, sometime in the next fifty years,
Speaker 1: our Jets will make it. Probably don't tempt me.
Speaker 2: The Titans really reminded me of the nine ten Jets
Speaker 2: today exactly. Lot of balls bounced their way the first
Speaker 2: two rounds, a lot of good matchups, but then you
Speaker 2: get one game away and then life just smacks you
Speaker 2: right in the face.
Speaker 1: Well when the time comes and I'm sure will. We
Speaker 1: may be eighty, but it'll come at some point. How
Speaker 1: about we do a live show from Radio Row.
Speaker 2: I am for that, so booked?
Speaker 1: All right? Man. Well, in the meantime, remind everybody where
Speaker 1: they can find more of you in your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah. You can catch our podcast, grid Iron Gamble on
Speaker 2: any podcatcher that you listen to, iTunes, Stitcher, Spotify, and
Speaker 2: you can follow us on Twitter at grid Iron Gamble.
Speaker 2: I'm at Rich t Ryan and enjoy this lead up
Speaker 2: to the super Bowl, everybody.
Speaker 1: Yeah, everybody, have a great time. And I want to
Speaker 1: remind everybody before we go about bet MGM, where you
Speaker 1: can get a risk free five hundred dollars bet if
Speaker 1: you sign up for the BETMGM Sports app using our
Speaker 1: promo code Harris. Given that the super Bowl is not
Speaker 1: until two weeks from today, we're going to skip our
Speaker 1: usual Thursday show this week. We will be back talking
Speaker 1: about some of our best plays next week. I'll talk
Speaker 1: to you then,