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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast, so you can.

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Speaker 2: Hear the chatter.

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Speaker 1: It's for the crowd. We have a big chant, a

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Speaker 1: big chance to make it a lot question the big bucks,

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Speaker 1: Three punters, Fine a man. Welcome to the Action Network

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Speaker 1: Podcast presented by Fanduels Spotbook. I'm your host, Matt Moore

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Speaker 1: with a very special episode for you guys. We're talking

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Speaker 1: to NBA Futures Brandon Anderson, NBA Futures analyst, joins me.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna break down the Eastern Conference. We'll get you

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Speaker 1: a look at win totals, we'll talk about the play

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Speaker 1: in tournament, we'll talk about seating, we'll talk about title

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Speaker 1: odds for the conference, all that and more. Want to

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Speaker 1: let you know, as always, if you want to find

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Speaker 1: more content on this, check out the award winning Action

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Speaker 1: Network app. The best way for you to track your picks,

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Speaker 1: Get up to the second information on where the bets

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Speaker 1: of money you're coming in on, and do all that

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Speaker 1: right in the palm of your hand. What we're gonna

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Speaker 1: do is we're gonna basically go through Eastern Conference. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna go not team by team. We're not gonna go

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Speaker 1: all of them. I'm not gonna talk about the Detroit

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Speaker 1: Pistons today, but we're gonna talk about the relevant playoff

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Speaker 1: futures that we have on these time of teams. We

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Speaker 1: do have some content coming on the tank teams that

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Speaker 1: you can find in the app on the award winning

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Speaker 1: Action Network app Best Way if you track your picks.

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Speaker 1: We have a roundtable coming up on kind of where

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Speaker 1: we think those are going to go, how to bet

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Speaker 1: those situations. You can cover that there. We're gonna go

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Speaker 1: team by team, hit the big highlights. We'll give you

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Speaker 1: some best bets on what we're looking at. As far

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Speaker 1: as bets to win the Eastern Conference, We're gonna start

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Speaker 1: obviously at the top. The Celtics currently at fandle are.

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Speaker 1: Their live win total is fifty eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: They are plus one fifteen to win the Eastern Conference title.

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna give the title odds because that's we're

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Speaker 1: doing conferences. I want to stick to the conferences. They

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Speaker 1: are minus one seventy five to win the number one seed,

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Speaker 1: minus one seventy five. They have seventeen losses. The Milwaukee

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Speaker 1: Bucks have seventeen losses. The Philadelphia seventy six ers have

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Speaker 1: nineteen losses, and the Cleveland Cavaliers have twenty three losses.

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Speaker 1: Brandon and I have both done projections.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to.

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Speaker 1: Rattle off all of them, team by team. I will

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Speaker 1: ask you for certain ones and we'll skip other ones.

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Speaker 1: But let's go ahead and start here. What do you

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Speaker 1: have the Celtics projected to finish at as far as

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Speaker 1: wins go at fifty eight and a half line the

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Speaker 1: rest of the way.

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Speaker 2: So I've got them at fifty seven wins. And in

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Speaker 2: this case, I actually I'm a little less scientific on these.

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Speaker 2: I started with the more scientific number, and then I

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Speaker 2: eyeball the schedule because to me, this last twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: five games, the nuance of the schedule, Who are you playing,

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Speaker 2: who may or may not be tanking, what's the last

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Speaker 2: week look like, who might be resting? Those things I

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Speaker 2: don't think are necessarily captured in a strength of schedule

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Speaker 2: sort of thing. So this is a little bit of like, okay, well,

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Speaker 2: now that I've done the work on these teams, literally

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Speaker 2: go through the schedule and okay, let's win here or

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Speaker 2: a loss here. Here's where you split a couple of games,

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Speaker 2: et cetera. This line a couple of days ago was

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Speaker 2: fifty nine and a half. So obviously money is coming

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Speaker 2: in on the under. I would have leaned under fifty

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Speaker 2: nine and a half. I would still lean under fifty

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Speaker 2: eight and a half. I just said I project them

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Speaker 2: at fifty seven. Lean under. That number is the same

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Speaker 2: thing we've talked about. Sixty wins is a lot. It's

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Speaker 2: hard to win a lot of basketball games. But guess

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Speaker 2: what we did this before the season and we said, Wow,

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Speaker 2: whatever the number is is a lot, it's hard to win. Oh, look,

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Speaker 2: they're winning all the games. So I thought, honestly, I

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Speaker 2: thought maybe Jalen Brown would miss a little bit of

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Speaker 2: time with the facial injury, and then it turns out

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Speaker 2: he's going to one on one in the All Star Games,

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Speaker 2: so that's apparently not a thing. I don't think they're

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Speaker 2: gonna have to push too hard for the one seed.

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Speaker 2: I know you said the numbers there they're pretty close,

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Speaker 2: but it looks like Giannis maybe would miss sometime. I

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Speaker 2: don't know who's gonna push Boston for me. With the Celtics,

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Speaker 2: I can have them coasting into the one seed. I

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Speaker 2: would be looking less to play a win total more

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Speaker 2: at Maybe is this an award spot. I'm not excited

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Speaker 2: about the Joe Mizula Coach of the Year or about

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Speaker 2: Malcolm Brogden Man. It doesn't feel like that's a really

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Speaker 2: buzzy narrative thing. I guess, you know, Missoula took over,

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Speaker 2: just got the full time job, like a little more

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Speaker 2: narrative there. It feels to me like both of those

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Speaker 2: would be by default wins, but default wins up some

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Speaker 2: money too. I know we're not really doing awards too

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Speaker 2: much here, but for me, if I'm looking to play

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Speaker 2: a Celtics angle, if you're in the one seat, you're

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Speaker 2: gonna get some sort of award something, and I think

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Speaker 2: that one of those is probably the way to go.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So let's kind of start here. Let's buy the

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Speaker 1: win total. First off, if you have not bet this

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Speaker 1: the Celtics yet, if you're listening to this podcast and

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Speaker 1: you stayed away from the preseason where I was very like,

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Speaker 1: I have a full max position on Celtics under fifty

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Speaker 1: five and a half. That's the number I got. I

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Speaker 1: got a fifty six and a half position. I got

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Speaker 1: a fifty three and a half position. Most of my

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Speaker 1: money came in at fifty five and a half. What's

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Speaker 1: surprising actually is like we were within, like I'm within

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Speaker 1: shouting distance. It looked for a while like this was

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Speaker 1: gonna be like sixty three sixty and it was gonna

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Speaker 1: be like dead by now, and instead, like I'm live.

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Speaker 1: I need them to dip a little bit and I

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Speaker 1: might be able to squeak under the fifty five and

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Speaker 1: a half, lose the fifty three and a half, and

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Speaker 1: not lose my shirt. I still have them projected right

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Speaker 1: now at fifty seven and a half. I was projecting

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Speaker 1: them lower a little bit. An interesting thing on my

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Speaker 1: projections is that I'm not taking their full season numbers

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Speaker 1: and projecting that as like a as an absolute. I

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Speaker 1: take how many wins they've already gotten, and then my

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Speaker 1: power rating times an average win mark, and that's how

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Speaker 1: we kind of come out at the at what the

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Speaker 1: figure should be, and so it already factors in their

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Speaker 1: prior success in November, which is I feel better about

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Speaker 1: because it means like if I just take, like how

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Speaker 1: good are the Celtics and how many games did that

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Speaker 1: team win across eighty two games, the numbers lower. I

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Speaker 1: do it this way because it want to be like, well,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter if they should have won fewer games,

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Speaker 1: they've already won them. Here's my question for you. We

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Speaker 1: both lean under if you haven't entered this market, like

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Speaker 1: I have them at fifty seven point four, which is

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Speaker 1: a full win under the fifty eight and a half mark.

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Speaker 1: Since I have this dreadful, dreadful vulnerabil liability here on

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Speaker 1: the Celtics under fifty five and a half, should I

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Speaker 1: lay the minus one? Seventy five is a hedge because

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Speaker 1: is there a scenario in which they go like, I

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Speaker 1: don't know how I would lose it? Like, yeah, they're

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Speaker 1: away in which they win, Like can they win fifty

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Speaker 1: nine and the Sixers or Bucks win sixty?

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Speaker 2: I mean, yes, they could do that. That is a

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Speaker 2: thing that could happen. It's really really hard to see

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Speaker 2: that happening. So yeah, I mean honestly too, of the

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Speaker 2: numbers you said, if you're looking for a in not

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Speaker 2: award a thing here a win total, a one seed

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Speaker 2: to something and we're not doing title odds, I think

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Speaker 2: the one seed number is not terrible. I've got them

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Speaker 2: at fifty seven you mentioned with your projections, I have

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Speaker 2: a similar thing kind of baked in and where I said, Okay,

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Speaker 2: we've got twenty three Celtics games left. What's my expectation

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Speaker 2: based on the deeper numbers? Just for those twenty three

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Speaker 2: and then I don't really care about the previous ones.

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Speaker 2: They're done. We just have those wins and losses area.

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Speaker 2: So I kind of have a similar setup. I have.

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Speaker 2: My next closest team in the East is three wins

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Speaker 2: off the pace. That's not insignificant when we're down to

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Speaker 2: twenty games here, Like three wins is a pretty solid cushion.

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Speaker 2: So at minus one seventy five, I'm thinking in my head,

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Speaker 2: is that something like mid sixty percent implied? That's not terrible.

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Speaker 2: I feel like that's I feel like a problem. Put

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Speaker 2: Boston higher than that.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think it's a good bed if you

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Speaker 1: haven't entered the market. Yeah, So the key here is

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Speaker 1: that I'm getting essentially an at market number to hedge

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Speaker 1: out of my fifty five and a half. That's the

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Speaker 1: only context in which I think it has value. I

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Speaker 1: think if you're entering the market fresh and you're like, like,

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Speaker 1: I want to bet on the number one seed, then

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Speaker 1: I'm like, look, there's enough variance here. I think you

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Speaker 1: can go in a different direction and probably have a

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Speaker 1: little bit of value because what's interesting though here is

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Speaker 1: look the Celtics. Arguably, you can very reasonably argue the

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Speaker 1: Celtics have already dipped. They were without Marcus Smart. The

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Speaker 1: offense went to shit without Marcus Smart there for a

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks, then they were they lost Jalen Brown.

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Speaker 1: Like they've been pretty mediocre here over this last stretch

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Speaker 1: of games because they were really really banged up, and

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Speaker 1: like every team's had that, Like the Sixers had their

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Speaker 1: stretch without Harden and MAXI, the Bucks had their stretch

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Speaker 1: without Chris Middleton. So like everybody's got these stretches. I

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Speaker 1: don't project the Celtics to be less healthy the rest

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Speaker 1: of the way. They got Marcus Smart back, they got

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Speaker 1: Jalen Brown back going in like All Star Games, so

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Speaker 1: he's gonna play. Coming out. Robert Williams is a question mark,

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Speaker 1: but they were fine without him before. So I kind

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Speaker 1: of feel like, I don't I can't look at it

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Speaker 1: be like the Celtics. I said we're going to I

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Speaker 1: kept saying this in the December, November the Celtics were

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Speaker 1: gonna regress. They have, they just haven't regressed enough for

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Speaker 1: me to get under the number of fifty five. So

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Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna go ahead, and I'm gonna bet

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Speaker 1: the minus one seventy five and get out of my

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Speaker 1: position on on that. To just go ahead and even out, I.

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Speaker 2: Think that makes sense. And especially because you asked me,

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Speaker 2: is it possible could they go over the number and

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Speaker 2: still not be the one seed? Sure, it's possible. A

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Speaker 2: lot of things are possible. I think it's more likely

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Speaker 2: and more possible. They could still potentially backdoor hit your

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Speaker 2: fifty five and hit the under and still be the

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Speaker 2: one seed, and you might actually have like a middle

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Speaker 2: where you end up with both of those. I think

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Speaker 2: that's a more likely outcome, just because I don't know

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Speaker 2: that there's gonna be a big push. If there's a push,

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Speaker 2: it had to be I think from Philly, not Milwaukee.

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Speaker 2: The Bucks, well, they know they've been here before. They

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Speaker 2: don't need the one seed, they've won a title. I

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Speaker 2: think the Sixers would love the one seed, not just

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Speaker 2: because of the home court, but because getting the one

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Speaker 2: seed for Philly means oh oh, I only have to

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Speaker 2: play Boston or Milwaukee. Now that sounds pretty good to me.

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Speaker 2: So if the push does come, it's from them, but

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Speaker 2: now you're a little further back, and I just I

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Speaker 2: think they're too far for the push. So I like it.

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Speaker 1: East Title plus one fifteen. That's a it's a short number, right,

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Speaker 1: Like they're getting a bunch of bumps here. They're getting

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Speaker 1: a very public team in the Celtics made the finals

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Speaker 1: last year. MVP candidate, Like, they have a lot of

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Speaker 1: wave behind that number, right, they have a lot of

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Speaker 1: momentum behind that number. I don't know. I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's wrong. I don't think that that's a bad number.

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Speaker 1: I don't look at the Celtics and go, that's a

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Speaker 1: that's a bad number. They're vulnerable. The way I have

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Speaker 1: kind of started to look at the Eastern Conference. It's

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Speaker 1: weird because you know, I was down on them in

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Speaker 1: the in the regular season, and I stand by a

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Speaker 1: lot of that analysis, and we're seeing that, like it

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Speaker 1: wasn't bad because it is close enough. Again, we talked

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Speaker 1: about it. Fifty five is a high number I think

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Speaker 1: for the Eastern Conference title. You know, do I think

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Speaker 1: that the Bucks beat them last year with Middleton? I do.

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Speaker 1: I just don't know that that's this team. This seems

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Speaker 1: better offensively than that team was. That was our problem

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Speaker 1: with the Celtics last year, where was like they can't

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Speaker 1: they can't score. They've just gotten better on that and

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Speaker 1: I don't have a real reason for it. I don't

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Speaker 1: have like a because of X, Y and Z. They

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Speaker 1: just got better at it and they're shooting the lights out.

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Speaker 1: And especially because it looks like and based off a

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Speaker 1: U and has projections, we agree on this. It's going

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Speaker 1: to be Bucks sixers two three, so you don't have

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Speaker 1: to go through either one of those. Like, I think

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Speaker 1: there's pretty good. I think the Celtics are a good

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Speaker 1: bet to win the Eastern Conference, even if the number

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Speaker 1: doesn't have ev even if I think it's priced about right,

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Speaker 1: I still look at and I go, do I trust

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Speaker 1: the Bucks if they make the conference finals to knock

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Speaker 1: down enough shots? No, I'm gonna sit back with my

244
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Speaker 1: preseason bets on the on the Bucks and be done.

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Speaker 1: I don't want any money on the Bucks versus the Celtics.

246
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Speaker 1: It's too much stress. Like I just I'm gonna save

247
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Speaker 1: my heart. I'll probably wind up betting it because I'm

248
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Speaker 1: a djend, but still like that's not a situation that

249
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Speaker 1: I want I definitely don't want the Sixers. We'll talk

250
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Speaker 1: about another team a little bit later. But for me, like,

251
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Speaker 1: what do you look at look at if we move

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Speaker 1: past the regular season into the playoffs, what's your feeling

253
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Speaker 1: plus one fifteen?

254
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't play the plus one fifteen. I don't

255
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Speaker 2: feel like that's a value for you to bet that

256
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Speaker 2: right now plus one fifteen. We're really close now to

257
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Speaker 2: saying Boston versus the field in the East, Like that

258
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Speaker 2: would be plus one hundred Boston versus the field, and

259
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Speaker 2: I can't get there when the field has a second team,

260
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Speaker 2: the Bucks that I feel so strongly about, I personally

261
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Speaker 2: would probably lean Bucks over Celtics. If I just had

262
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Speaker 2: to pick one team, no odds, just one team to

263
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Speaker 2: come out of the East, I think I would lean Bucks.

264
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Speaker 2: I like them in that matchup. So that alone tells

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Speaker 2: me I can't take a plus one fifteen nearly versus

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Speaker 2: the field position. But I think more so is this,

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Speaker 2: we don't have a lot of regular season games left,

268
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Speaker 2: but we got a long way to go till we

269
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Speaker 2: get an Eastern Conference winner. There is no chance that

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Speaker 2: you are buying like you're going to get a better price.

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Speaker 2: You can wait and get a better price than plus

272
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Speaker 2: one fifteen. Sometime that the chance is, like Joannis says,

273
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Speaker 2: the season ending injury. Now your plus one fifteen is gone.

274
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Speaker 2: Sorry about it. I'm not really banking on that. Otherwise,

275
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Speaker 2: sometime when the Bucks make a push, or the Sixers

276
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Speaker 2: look great, or the Celtics lose Game one to the

277
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Speaker 2: Hawks in the opening game of the playoffs, or some

278
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Speaker 2: stupid could happen, you're gonna get a better price. I

279
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Speaker 2: just there's too much that can go awry, and you

280
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Speaker 2: mentioned the injuries. I don't need the run to put

281
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Speaker 2: in a plus one fifteen here is just not betable

282
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Speaker 2: for me. Right now.

283
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Speaker 1: Milwaukee Bucks are plus oney eighty five to win the

284
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Speaker 1: East title. Their win totals currently off the board at FanDuel.

285
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Speaker 1: Based off of the injury to Yannis, Sean's reported that

286
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Speaker 1: there's like a it was weird. I started hearing like

287
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Speaker 1: some people being like, oh, kind of some worries that

288
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Speaker 1: he's seriously injured, and then Shams kind of reported like, no,

289
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Speaker 1: it's probably gonna be okay, like it gonna be a

290
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Speaker 1: couple of weeks, but not a big deal, Like he's

291
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Speaker 1: avoided major injury, which I think is promising. We don't

292
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Speaker 1: have an official diagnosis yet, so we can kind of,

293
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Speaker 1: you know, go with what we've got here. Bucks are

294
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Speaker 1: plus one eighty five to win the East title. They

295
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Speaker 1: are plus one fifty to win the top seed. If

296
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Speaker 1: you're entering this blind and you haven't bet anything for

297
00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,319
Speaker 1: top seed or on, you don't have any of our

298
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Speaker 1: positions that we took. I do think that probably like

299
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Speaker 1: I like Bucks top seed, you're a little bit lower

300
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Speaker 1: on Milwaukee, which I was a little surprised at, just

301
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Speaker 1: relative to the standards. What is your thought on the

302
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Speaker 1: Milwaukee Bucks. Let's start with the seeding stuff and then

303
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Speaker 1: we'll go to playoffs.

304
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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna mention the projection I have here because

305
00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:28,960
Speaker 2: it kind of feeds into the answers for your other questions.

306
00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:31,680
Speaker 2: I came out originally at about fifty five and a

307
00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,440
Speaker 2: half wins, and I kind of manually adjusted down to

308
00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:36,920
Speaker 2: where I have them at fifty four. Fifty five and

309
00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,080
Speaker 2: a half puts the much more in play to that

310
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Speaker 2: fifty seven for Boston, that number one seed, all of

311
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Speaker 2: that sort of stuff. The manual adjustment was a little

312
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Speaker 2: bit of Yanni's question mark. Chris Middleton still I think

313
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Speaker 2: it is going to get some rest. They're still kind

314
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Speaker 2: of ramping him up toward the playoffs. I just don't

315
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Speaker 2: think that this team gives a rip about the next

316
00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:01,120
Speaker 2: six weeks. All they need to carr about is get

317
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Speaker 2: Jannis and Chris healthy to the playoffs. They already know

318
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Speaker 2: what happened last year when that didn't go their direction,

319
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Speaker 2: and so far right now we have two years of

320
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Speaker 2: playoff evidence where one of them they won the title

321
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Speaker 2: and the other one. They sure have to believe that

322
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Speaker 2: they should have or been in the mix to at

323
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Speaker 2: least make the finals when they took Boston to seven games.

324
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Speaker 2: Whether that's flawed logic or not is its own story,

325
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Speaker 2: but you know, they believe, the players believe that. So

326
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Speaker 2: I just I don't see the motivation factor here to

327
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Speaker 2: push and so I think you sit a game where

328
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Speaker 2: we're not expecting it right now, or or you just

329
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Speaker 2: kind of give a game away where we're not seeing it.

330
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Speaker 2: So that was kind of where the manual adjustment down came.

331
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Speaker 2: I personally, if I were going to bet one seed

332
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Speaker 2: in the East, I just would take Boston. You know,

333
00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:52,480
Speaker 2: I'm not going to drink the heavy juice on a

334
00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:54,800
Speaker 2: lot of these bets. But I just think the Celtics

335
00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,120
Speaker 2: are that that's sixty three percent the number you gave

336
00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:00,560
Speaker 2: for them minus one seventy five. I just would put

337
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,360
Speaker 2: them higher than that. So I don't think Milwaukee cares

338
00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,880
Speaker 2: if they're the three seed. I don't think the Bucks

339
00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,520
Speaker 2: give a rip if they got to go face Philadelphia

340
00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:10,720
Speaker 2: in a Game seven on the road. I mean, sure,

341
00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:13,440
Speaker 2: you'd rather play in Milwaukee rather have their revenue, you

342
00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,520
Speaker 2: rather have the home fans. But I think Milwaukee would

343
00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:20,480
Speaker 2: far more happily sit Yiannis and Chris for a game

344
00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:25,960
Speaker 2: or two and risk that than risk the game seven scenario.

345
00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:27,440
Speaker 2: I don't think the Bucks think they're going to need

346
00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:29,280
Speaker 2: a game of seven against the Sixers. I don't know

347
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Speaker 2: why they wouldn't care about it.

348
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Speaker 1: I think my pushback here is that I think they

349
00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,320
Speaker 1: can win anyway. Like I think that they're good enough

350
00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:37,240
Speaker 1: that even if they rest guys, they can they can

351
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:39,360
Speaker 1: find wins here. Like their team is good enough, they're

352
00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:41,040
Speaker 1: well coached, Like we kind of saw that, right, Like

353
00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:43,600
Speaker 1: I know that you're that your bulls are pitiful, but

354
00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:47,960
Speaker 1: like Giannis goes out and Brook has thirty plus and

355
00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:49,680
Speaker 1: they just trounce them from from the get go.

356
00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:52,440
Speaker 2: You know all their RIPTNT bulls.

357
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, we risking PCT Bowls, so they really can. And

358
00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:57,880
Speaker 1: that's if you want to say, well, yeah it's the Bulls,

359
00:16:57,880 --> 00:16:59,000
Speaker 1: and I'm like, well, they're not just going to be

360
00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:01,640
Speaker 1: playing the Celtics the rest of the way. Like, they'll

361
00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:03,440
Speaker 1: have these games where they can they can find ways

362
00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:05,480
Speaker 1: and they'll face other teams that are also resting guys,

363
00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:07,800
Speaker 1: so they can find their way to that. I have

364
00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:11,359
Speaker 1: them at fifty five point four. What's interesting about my

365
00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:15,080
Speaker 1: projection is I was low on them all season. Everyone

366
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:16,800
Speaker 1: knows it, Like I was talking about, like I bet

367
00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:19,240
Speaker 1: the under on them. Once I saw them in preseason,

368
00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:20,400
Speaker 1: I was like, ooh, this is rough.

369
00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:20,959
Speaker 2: And then they were.

370
00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 1: They were so bad offensively those first two months. I

371
00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:25,640
Speaker 1: bet them again. I was like, this team is still

372
00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:27,520
Speaker 1: being overvalued at fifty two and a half, all these

373
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:31,280
Speaker 1: types of things, and then they flipped the switch and

374
00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:35,600
Speaker 1: they've just been a complete destroyer of worlds right now

375
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:39,000
Speaker 1: by the way, I have them manually upgraded a full

376
00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:43,040
Speaker 1: two points over my full season projection. Okay, so my

377
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,720
Speaker 1: full season power rating, I have them at a one,

378
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,760
Speaker 1: which is low and I've updated them a full two points.

379
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,239
Speaker 1: For the full season, that number would come out as

380
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:54,880
Speaker 1: a fifty win team. But this is this is again

381
00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 1: the example of it. The Bucks were not a great

382
00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:01,280
Speaker 1: team early, but they won games anyway. And so now

383
00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:03,119
Speaker 1: we're at this point where they're really kind of like

384
00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 1: stuck in here. I'm just gonna lose this position on

385
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,240
Speaker 1: the Bucks under fifty two and a half. I'm fine

386
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 1: with that. Like, yeah, I was right for three months

387
00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:12,439
Speaker 1: and then they flipped a switch. I did just look

388
00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,480
Speaker 1: this up while you were talking, and I do think

389
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:18,040
Speaker 1: it's kind of it is relevant to what we're discussing here.

390
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:21,880
Speaker 1: I looked at after the All Star Break. So since

391
00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, it's they've they've wonted a sixty four point

392
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,040
Speaker 1: percent clip in regular season games after the All Star

393
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,439
Speaker 1: Break or before the All Star break. After the All

394
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,800
Speaker 1: Star break that goes to sixty seven percent. That's since

395
00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. So let's look at that since the title, right,

396
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,679
Speaker 1: which is like they won the title, and obviously your

397
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,680
Speaker 1: priority in those game shifts, they still win at a

398
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:49,159
Speaker 1: sixty eight percent clip. So like that was last year, right,

399
00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,760
Speaker 1: They went fifteen and seven last year after the All

400
00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:54,679
Speaker 1: Star Break straight up. Now, they had to make up

401
00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 1: ground last year because Brooke was out, So I don't

402
00:18:57,800 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 1: know how that factors into this. I don't think that.

403
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,160
Speaker 1: I don't think you're right or wrong right. I think

404
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,520
Speaker 1: it's like, I don't disagree with your logic. I think

405
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:07,280
Speaker 1: it's messy enough to where this is a no bet

406
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 1: for me on it from a seating standpoint, just based

407
00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:14,800
Speaker 1: off of those factors, they're plus one eighty five. You

408
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 1: and I were very big on them in like preseason.

409
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:19,680
Speaker 1: I think you and I both kind of agree that

410
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 1: in my opinion, Giannis is the best player in the

411
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,639
Speaker 1: Eastern Conference and there's a pretty big gap for me,

412
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:29,359
Speaker 1: Like Joel's in that conversation, Tatum's in that conversation, but

413
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:32,840
Speaker 1: it's Yiannis and then the space and then everybody else.

414
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,760
Speaker 1: Even Celtics fans will tell you how scared they are

415
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:39,399
Speaker 1: of him. In the series, they got Jay Crowder, they

416
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 1: gave up some depth. I'm still worried about the shooting.

417
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,080
Speaker 1: What do you think about the plus one eighty five

418
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,159
Speaker 1: title number for the Eastern Conference.

419
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,639
Speaker 2: For the books, Yeah, we talked about when they got

420
00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:54,000
Speaker 2: Jay Crowder. I said at the time, I thought that

421
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:57,000
Speaker 2: was maybe the biggest trade deadline acquisition just in terms

422
00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 2: of direct title impact. Obviously Kevin Durant is a slightly

423
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:04,119
Speaker 2: bigger acquisition, but just Crowder being on the court is

424
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,160
Speaker 2: such a big difference maker for them. Yeah, I wrestle

425
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 2: with the profile of this team. If you go by

426
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,959
Speaker 2: expected wins, they are six wins above expectations right now.

427
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,639
Speaker 2: But like you said, doesn't matter. They already have all

428
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,280
Speaker 2: those wins and the profile of what I think they

429
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 2: are what they should be healthy with Crowder. Now is

430
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 2: I think the best team in the East. And I

431
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,000
Speaker 2: think it's number one, not one A or one B.

432
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 2: I think they just are the best team. I would

433
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,160
Speaker 2: look at the plus one and five to bet them.

434
00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 2: Thirty five percent implied, I feel is low, and I'm

435
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,440
Speaker 2: not sure you necessarily can wait to get a better number.

436
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:42,440
Speaker 2: The problem is now the honest injury, and it's just

437
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 2: enough of an unknown, like I can't really imagine a scenario.

438
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,399
Speaker 2: I mean, the next time the Bucks play a truly

439
00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 2: meaningful game, it literally will be May, right, Like they're

440
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,000
Speaker 2: not going to get pushed in the first round in

441
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,919
Speaker 2: all likelihood. So now it's May. And if we already

442
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 2: I was saying, this wasn't the real dangerous injury now

443
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 2: then it's hard to believe two and a half months

444
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:07,959
Speaker 2: from now or whatever that that's going to be a factor.

445
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 2: It's enough for me in a low enough number. They

446
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 2: don't need to run about it. But I think if

447
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 2: I were going to play in Eastern Conference title odds,

448
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 2: it's bucks or nothing for me. And I don't mind

449
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,600
Speaker 2: the plus one eighty five. If you're not worried about Gianas, let's.

450
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 1: Go to the Sixers. Six Ers fifty one and a

451
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,680
Speaker 1: half plus six fifty to win the Eastern Conference, twenty

452
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 1: eight hundred to win the top seed.

453
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 2: Wow.

454
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that I want to double and triple

455
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 1: down on our vast conference, our division title bets that

456
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 1: we had on the Sixers in preseason, but I will

457
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,640
Speaker 1: say that, like, okay, the Sixers are two games back

458
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 1: of the Celtics in the lost column. Just two games

459
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 1: back of the Celtics in the lost column. They already

460
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 1: missed Hardened and MAXI for a long stretch of time.

461
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 1: This is one of three teams it's top ten and

462
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 1: both offense and defense on the season schedule adjusted at

463
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 1: dunks and threes, I will say plus twenty eight hundred

464
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 1: for them to be the one seed is wrong. That's

465
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 1: a wrong number.

466
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I agree, it's that's I didn't look at

467
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,440
Speaker 2: that because I wasn't really considering Philly to make the

468
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 2: one seed to run. But man, that that is a

469
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 2: long number for being two games out. And a thing

470
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:26,399
Speaker 2: I like about the Sixers is the schedule kind of

471
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,679
Speaker 2: weirdly looks like it might break their way a little bit.

472
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 2: So they have a pretty tough stretch coming out of

473
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,120
Speaker 2: the break. I don't mind that you got to beat

474
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,640
Speaker 2: hard teams. Sometimes we're rested, right, we just got Joel

475
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 2: Embiid and James Hard and a week off. If I

476
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 2: have to play some tough games, yeah, now is the

477
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 2: time when I'd like to do it. Thank you easy

478
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 2: in March, so you kind of ease up, get through

479
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 2: this tough stretch, ease into March, and then the schedule

480
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:54,360
Speaker 2: theoretically is tough later. But Milwaukee and Boston both come

481
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 2: verily in the schedule. You might get a resting team

482
00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,719
Speaker 2: either or both of those games. Teams that don't care

483
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 2: as much. If I had to pick one of these

484
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 2: top four East teams, and I think absolutely cares and

485
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 2: really wants to win, and they don't want the division banner,

486
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 2: let's be real. But the two seed or the one seed,

487
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 2: I think the Sixers care and would want that. They

488
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 2: badly badly want and need to finally make a conference

489
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 2: finals just that if nothing else, and getting to home

490
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 2: court in a two to three seed or one seed

491
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 2: even better. I think that matters for me, don't I

492
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 2: can't stop you from betting the one seed. The number

493
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 2: just it seems bad. The win total at fifty one

494
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 2: and a half to me, of all these top teams,

495
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 2: I like the over on that I have them at

496
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,920
Speaker 2: about fifty three and a half wins. I just think

497
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 2: they're gonna push and they get a lot of talent there.

498
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 2: There's some cushion even if m Being misses a stretch

499
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 2: or whatever. Now we got Maxi back and you know,

500
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 2: everything is there to push for them getting some wins.

501
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 2: They've got twenty five games left as well, which is

502
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 2: the most I think that any NBA team has tied

503
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 2: with a couple other teams. I only mentioned that just

504
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:03,879
Speaker 2: to say it. I have more games you can win. Right,

505
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 2: We're at thirty eight. We need to get to fifty two.

506
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,719
Speaker 2: To hit that over, you only need to go fourteen wins,

507
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,880
Speaker 2: fourteen and eleven to get there, and Philadelphia is good enough.

508
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 2: They really should do that.

509
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the fifty one to have it. It's

510
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 1: a simpler bet. I have them at fifty three point nine,

511
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 1: so I've got value on the over as well. I've

512
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,680
Speaker 1: already bet them, like I bet them. I started betting

513
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 1: them pretty consistently early when they dipped because people were

514
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 1: freaking out, like they were just really freaking out about

515
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 1: a lot of these like about the early start, and

516
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 1: I was kinda like, no, about that. We'll see and

517
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 1: I was like, I buy into this, especially when the

518
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,920
Speaker 1: defense rap. The defense was essentially like it hit the

519
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 1: absolute dirt immediately and then Embid got himself in shape

520
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 1: and then immediately just started a rebound and it's been

521
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 1: fine since then. Let me ask you this because this

522
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 1: is like, this is a good betting question from the

523
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 1: like how this podcast is I've got Let me confirm

524
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 1: these numbers with you. Your range for the Celtics is

525
00:24:56,480 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 1: fifty five to fifty nine wins, correct, yes, yeap. And

526
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 1: your range for the Sixers is fifty to fifty.

527
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,679
Speaker 2: Five right, Yeah, that's what I've got.

528
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, So in order for the Sixers to pass the Celtics,

529
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 1: the Sixers would either have to exceed your projected range

530
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 1: or hit the very top of it, and the Celtics

531
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 1: would have to hit the very floor of what you've got.

532
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:23,959
Speaker 1: Does that cross reference of outcomes reach more or less

533
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:25,719
Speaker 1: than like a plus twenty eight hundred implied?

534
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 2: It's a great question. Yeah, you're right, that is the

535
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 2: right question to ask here, that cross hair of outcomes.

536
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 2: The reason I do those ranges is that in my

537
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,640
Speaker 2: brain as I think, oh, could Philadelphia possibly catch Boston,

538
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 2: it should immediately shoot rad of flags up in my

539
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 2: brain of like what we got to have the best

540
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 2: outcome of realistic Philly outcomes and the worst Boston outcome,

541
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 2: Like we're already talking about, you know, bottom bottom fifteen

542
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 2: percentile outcome for Boston maybe and a top fifteen percent

543
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,199
Speaker 2: outcome for Philly. Now we need both of them. Now

544
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 2: they're not independent because they probably play again and and

545
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 2: so some of that you're sharing results potentially on those.

546
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:12,159
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's a red flag to me that I

547
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 2: need too far range outcomes to both happen for a bet.

548
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 2: And don't forget there's still other teams, Like, I still

549
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 2: need Milwaukee. My range for them is fifty two to

550
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 2: fifty seven. We're not talking about division. We have the

551
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,719
Speaker 2: one seed, so now I also need Milwaukee to end

552
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 2: up in the bottom half of their range.

553
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you kind have said that you don't think

554
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 1: the Bucks will go for it, Like I was kind

555
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 1: of like being like, if we take it implied, the

556
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:42,120
Speaker 1: Bucks won't be there, and we might get a binary

557
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,360
Speaker 1: into it's either going to be six Ers or Celtics.

558
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 1: Right from a logic standpoint, what's the number come out

559
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 1: to be? Like you got a factor in the possibility

560
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 1: of like variance, because that's I always say this is

561
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 1: like that's the That's the thing with the books is

562
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 1: the books are like, well it's you know, the MVP odds.

563
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 1: It's like it could be so it's like it could

564
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 1: be I'm Thomas most improved player if things get really crazy,

565
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 1: but not going to be right, Like the books have

566
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 1: to be more probably more variant than we Yeah.

567
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 2: The hard part on this is is we're getting to

568
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 2: a spot where we're saying, Okay, should it be twenty

569
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 2: eight to one, or should it be thirty two to one,

570
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 2: or should it be twenty four to one. Well, the

571
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 2: payout for us is significant, the difference on those, But

572
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 2: if you flip it to percentages, it's like, well, is

573
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 2: this a three point two percent chance of happening or

574
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 2: a two point eight percent chance of happening? Like, I

575
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,479
Speaker 2: don't know. I don't have an answer for that. Our

576
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 2: brains don't operate that way, and I don't have a

577
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 2: model set to run that right now. But I think though,

578
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 2: that's why you know me, I love the long shots.

579
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 2: If you think that you're in range where there might

580
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 2: be some value, that's where look, even a plus twenty

581
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 2: eight hundred probably implies if you shop around some books,

582
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,440
Speaker 2: you might find a plus two thousand somewhere. And again,

583
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 2: the odds haven't changed too much for you in that,

584
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:59,719
Speaker 2: but the payout you're getting eight extra dollars for every

585
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:02,680
Speaker 2: dollar you bet on it. So I think if I'm

586
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 2: the long shots, if you like a long long shot,

587
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 2: you just have to kind of like it and not

588
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 2: really know if the percentage is exactly right in your favor,

589
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 2: and then just lay it and go for it.

590
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 1: Okay, six ers, when the Eastern Conference of plus six

591
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: fifty is a little interesting to me, here's the problem is,

592
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 1: like I'm about to say a bunch of stuff from

593
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 1: here on out that is a little bit contradictory, and

594
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: I still haven't figured it out, which is why I

595
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 1: got I'm gonna wait on Eastern Conference futures until the

596
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: playoffs get here. Like I said this before, I want

597
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: to see the bracket because if the Sixers are in

598
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 1: the four seed and they have to face the Celtics,

599
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: I want no part of them. If the Sixers are

600
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 1: where I think they will be, which will be the

601
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 1: three seed? Now I'm a little interested. I'm a little interested.

602
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 1: I just don't have enough confidence that like if you

603
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 1: told me, like, oh, the Cavs wound up going on

604
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 1: a win streak and they got their third seed, Okay,

605
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:52,479
Speaker 1: Like sure, whatever happens. I cannot bet the Sixers if

606
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 1: there is any possibility that they have to face Boston

607
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 1: before the conference finals. I can only bet the Sixers

608
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 1: if I know they won't face Boston before the conference finals.

609
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 1: They can't beat Boston. I need as many teams in

610
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 1: the way I want. Like the ideal would be that

611
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 1: like the Heat go on a tear and the Sixers

612
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 1: get the two or or the Sixers that we talked

613
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 1: about they get the one right, If the Sixers get

614
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 1: the one seed, I love them, But I should just

615
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 1: bet them at the plus twenty eight hundred to get

616
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 1: the one seed and then I guess, like I could

617
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 1: bet them to win the title then or whatever, but like,

618
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 1: that's the only scenario in which I like them. And

619
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 1: then the numbers gonna shorten because it's gonna be like, well,

620
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 1: we have to short the number because the Sixers have

621
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 1: home court, so they get a lower number. That if

622
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 1: you're a Sixers better that's what you want is for

623
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 1: them to take off. Now overcome Boston finishes the number

624
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 1: one seed in the Eastern Conference, have Cleveland in four,

625
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 1: Miami or the Nixon five, and then the Sixers have

626
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 1: a cake walk to the conference finals while Boston and

627
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 1: Milwaukee have to have another war in round two. That

628
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 1: to me is the only way that you can look

629
00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 1: at betting the Sixers. I have to know that before

630
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 1: I bet on the Sixers to win the conference.

631
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I pretty much agree with that, and I still

632
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 2: don't want to bet the Sixers. All the love we've

633
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 2: given them all of our preseason podcasts. We were both

634
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 2: very clear on we are talking about regular season outcomes

635
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 2: for this team. I'm still not there on putting my

636
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 2: hard earned cash on James Harden or Joel Embiid in

637
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 2: in a ten week playoffs. I just I'm just gonna

638
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 2: have to see it at some point. I'm gonna have

639
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 2: to see the ten not the like four weeks, so

640
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 2: the six weeks don't need to see a little more

641
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 2: than that. I just can't get there yet, certainly not

642
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 2: right now, this far away.

643
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 1: Because here's one of the things. If the Sixers win

644
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 1: the If the Sixers win the one seed and they

645
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 1: face the Celtics in the conference finals and they have

646
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 1: home court, who do you think is favored in that series?

647
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 1: I think Boston's favored.

648
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 2: I don't think so, because I think right now today,

649
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 2: in that hypothetical scenario, Boston's favored. But two months from now,

650
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 2: three months from now, when the Sixers have just beaten

651
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 2: two other teams and earned one seed and MB look

652
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 2: like the MVP of the closing stretch and Boston fell

653
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 2: off a little bit to fall behind, I think perception

654
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 2: will have changed along the way to then make Philadelphia favored.

655
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 2: I think right now, you're right, I think they should be.

656
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 2: But something twenty eight to one had to have happened

657
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 2: along the way and more outcome, the Sixers still have

658
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 2: to win two times in the playoffs and be healthy.

659
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 2: That's also like twenty eight to one, right, So I

660
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 2: think you're right, let.

661
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 1: Me parlay the number one seed and win the title,

662
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 1: because I think that the winning the title is correlated

663
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 1: heavily to getting the one seed. I don't want a

664
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: book to let me have that.

665
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're right to think of those similarly. Yeah, because yeah,

666
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 2: any other scenario that that's why stretching for the one

667
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 2: seed would be such a big deal for them. And

668
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 2: it's also you mentioned the Boston matchup. It's part of

669
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 2: why I still like the over for them because another

670
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 2: way that you hit the over is just, oh my gosh,

671
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 2: we can't fall to the four seed. That's Boston one

672
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 2: round earlier, so you at least want to stay above

673
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 2: the four. Like I think one, two, three, four, Every

674
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 2: seed matters for Philly, and they're gonna want to push

675
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,479
Speaker 2: as high as possible more than any of those other teams.

676
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: I do want to note this, it's one you know,

677
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 1: they have to finish tied, so it's a very specific thing.

678
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 1: But you'd be surprised. When we get to this level,

679
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 1: teams wind up tied a lot. Currently, Boston's two to

680
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 1: oh versus six Ers, they're up to oh out of four.

681
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 1: They have two more matchups remaining. The Sixers have to

682
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 1: go two to oh just the split season tiebreaker, and

683
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 1: even then, based off of division, the Celtics are eight

684
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 1: and one, the Sixers are seven and five, So like,

685
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 1: that's the next tiebreaker. Say what you're talking about there

686
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 1: is in order for them to get the one seed,

687
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: they have to catch them, and even if they tie them,

688
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 1: Boston probably wins tiebreaker.

689
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 2: So right, And so that's the thing too, is like,

690
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 2: that's why we're at twenty eight to one. It's because

691
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 2: now we're talking about like effectively a same game parlaly

692
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 2: a same season parlay of you've got to Philly has

693
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 2: to win both of those games. They have to win

694
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 2: because if they even split, they lost two games of

695
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 2: possible ground to make up on them, and they lost

696
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 2: the tiebreak. So now you're three games back to make

697
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 2: up ground and only like twenty games laugh, Like, so

698
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 2: your twenty eight to one is almost certainly betting on

699
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 2: winning both games against the team that's been best in

700
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 2: the league all season, so we're starting with that, and

701
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 2: you still have to be better than them the rest

702
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 2: of the way and still win a tipebreaker. That's why

703
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 2: we got to the twenty eight to one because we're

704
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 2: asking a lot to happen.

705
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: Calves are at fifty and a half on the win

706
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 1: to a line plus eleven hundred to win the Eastern Conference.

707
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 1: To talk about that in a second, plus four thousand

708
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 1: to win the top seed. They are a full six

709
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 1: games back in the lost column from the Celtics. That's dead.

710
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 1: So the Cleveland Cavaliers will not win the top seed

711
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 1: in the Eastern Conference. You know, and I don't have

712
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 1: to do anything here because I joined you when they

713
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 1: first came out. You bet them again after the Mitchell

714
00:33:58,120 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 1: trade of forty eight and a half, you're going to

715
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 1: catch that. I stayed away from the number at that

716
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 1: at that point, but I had enough a position. I'm

717
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 1: looking good there, Calves fifty and a half. I have

718
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 1: them projected currently. I have them at fifty one point seven,

719
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:15,879
Speaker 1: so a full you know, game and a half over

720
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 1: on this if you haven't met it yet. I like

721
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 1: the Calves over. I think they hit a mid season. Loll.

722
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 1: I still think this team is great. I still think

723
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 1: this team is more elite than they're being given credit for.

724
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 1: We'll talk about their title odds for the East in

725
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 1: the second, but what do you think about the number

726
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 1: on fifty and a half to win the over on

727
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:35,399
Speaker 1: their season win total.

728
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:37,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm about in locks up with what you just

729
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 2: said on this. Like I didn't spend long on the

730
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:41,360
Speaker 2: Cavs just because I have such a big position on

731
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,439
Speaker 2: them already, but I feel good about if I wasn't

732
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 2: going to play the fifteen and a half, this certainly

733
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 2: is an over for me, but it's a pass just

734
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 2: because I already have I've already beat the number. The

735
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 2: six hundred plus six hundred to win the division I

736
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 2: think would be maybe interesting, but again I've got that

737
00:34:58,280 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 2: position as well. I don't think it's going to hit.

738
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 2: I think the Bucks probably are going to hang on

739
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 2: and take care of business. I have Cleveland actually around

740
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:06,800
Speaker 2: fifty two and a half fifty three, so I have

741
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 2: a little higher than you. It's a really soft schedule,

742
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 2: and they've got five teams at the end of the season,

743
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 2: basically right at the end that I think are all

744
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 2: going to be tanking, so I think they're going to

745
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 2: just kind of coast into the playoffs with a bunch

746
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 2: of wins. The problem also though, with the over that

747
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 2: you have to be careful with. If you don't think

748
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 2: Cleveland is good enough to push to get higher in

749
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 2: the seeding, there's a real gap after them, and so

750
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 2: if they don't push to get to the three seed,

751
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 2: there's no danger of falling below. And then suddenly it's like, hey,

752
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:42,719
Speaker 2: you know what, don why don't you take a night off?

753
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:44,879
Speaker 2: Why don't you just rest? We got some more important games.

754
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:46,839
Speaker 2: We think we can actually win a couple series here.

755
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 2: Let's just punt this game tonight, because at some point,

756
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 2: if you're actually around forty nine to fifty wins and

757
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 2: that number near the end, nobody else is near you,

758
00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 2: above or below, and now the games don't matter, and

759
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 2: you don't really want a team like we don't want

760
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 2: Cheddy Osmond playing for our over on the last couple

761
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 2: of games of the season, no matter who they're playing against.

762
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:10,919
Speaker 2: So I think for me, it's just a stay away

763
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,800
Speaker 2: team for right now. I'm happy with the positions we

764
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 2: have already. We got the forty one and a half

765
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 2: over from way back before before all the Donovan Mitchell stuff.

766
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 2: So four more RNs, baby, four more and then we'll

767
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 2: catch that one.

768
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:26,320
Speaker 1: So we've got some to make the playoff odds, and

769
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 1: I want to mostly ask you about We'll talk about

770
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:30,439
Speaker 1: some of your other best bets. You've got some bets

771
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 1: on some of the middle and lower teams. But I

772
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 1: want to ask you about to make the playoffs? Is

773
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 1: the time right now? Do you think to attack the

774
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 1: make or miss markets? This one's always like tough because

775
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:44,720
Speaker 1: it's I just think that this is too sharp a market.

776
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 1: That's my opinion is that these numbers are too sharp.

777
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 1: Like the Hawks are minus one sixty two to make

778
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Well, you know they're starting lineup with fully

779
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 1: healthy is actually one of the better ones in the league.

780
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 1: They should be better. Now it's the Hawks who just

781
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 1: fired their coach before we got on this, by the way,

782
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 1: breaking news. Or you know, like the Knicks or minus

783
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:06,800
Speaker 1: four hundred. Would love to get the Knicks at a

784
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,400
Speaker 1: lower number, but the knickser are good enough and have

785
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 1: a clearance level. They're minus four hundred. I don't want

786
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:13,720
Speaker 1: to bet something where I have to lay minus four hundred,

787
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:15,839
Speaker 1: even if I think that there's ev on it. I'm

788
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 1: just like, I don't especially don't want to about the

789
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 1: Knicks on anything that the minus four hundred before we

790
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 1: talk about some of these individual teams. What's your general

791
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:25,919
Speaker 1: strategy and make miss playoffs at this point?

792
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:29,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the key is the seeding and where

793
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 2: you expect these teams to be. I think I only

794
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,800
Speaker 2: I only want to play make playoffs for the teams

795
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 2: that books are appropriately pricing out of range for us

796
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 2: to care to want to play them, you know, like

797
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:44,839
Speaker 2: same with the next Like I like the next we're

798
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 2: gonna talk about them. I don't want to lay the

799
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 2: minus four hundred. I just I don't need to the

800
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:51,920
Speaker 2: number we talked about with the twenty eight to one,

801
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 2: where it's like, well, is the percentage off just a

802
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 2: little bit at minus four hundred where eighty percent imply

803
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,399
Speaker 2: it has to happen, all right, So I think it's

804
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,239
Speaker 2: probably eighty three or eighty five percent or whatever the

805
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 2: number is. Well, what's super great, But do I really

806
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 2: need that margin? Do I need to play that? It's

807
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 2: not worth tying my money up for a few months

808
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 2: to win a quarter of my investment back at the

809
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 2: end and it's not worth it too much to me.

810
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 2: And then on the other end, my caution would be this.

811
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 2: The bet I would not play right now is Hey, No,

812
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:30,839
Speaker 2: I like Washington, I like Minnesota. I like this play

813
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 2: in team that I think is going to be in

814
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 2: the play in I like them to go ahead and

815
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:38,479
Speaker 2: win that play and matchup and make the playoffs. Don't

816
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 2: play that beat right now. I don't think those odds

817
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 2: are in your favor because you're entering a scenario where

818
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:48,920
Speaker 2: you're in a single elimination game and possibly too like

819
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 2: we kind of do the thing. There's been a lot

820
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 2: of discourse after the trade deadline about not all first

821
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 2: round picks are the same thing. I think we need

822
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,399
Speaker 2: to talk about not all play in is the same thing.

823
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:02,239
Speaker 2: If you're the seven or the eight, or nine or ten,

824
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:06,320
Speaker 2: those are very different seeds. Great, congratulations, you're still alive

825
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 2: in the postseason. But if you like Washington, you're like, yeah,

826
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:12,440
Speaker 2: I think they could. I think they get up to

827
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 2: the eighth seed. They could beat Miami in and make

828
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,919
Speaker 2: it in. Well that's great, but oops, they're the ninth seed.

829
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 2: Now they have to win twice, and they had to

830
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 2: still make that seed and win twice just a cash

831
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 2: year make the playoffs ticket. So I think if you

832
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 2: want to play the sort of angle, you either have

833
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 2: to just swallow hard and drink the juice on the

834
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 2: team you're really really sure is is good enough to

835
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 2: get out of the play in and actually qualify straight

836
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:46,279
Speaker 2: that's why you're betting them, or you need to go

837
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:50,280
Speaker 2: the other way and take a team like the Hawks

838
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 2: because you don't like them, or the Warriors or Lakers

839
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 2: because you don't like them, and play to miss the playoffs.

840
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 2: If you're playing one of those eight, nine, ten to

841
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:00,400
Speaker 2: eleven teams, I'm not playing to make right now. I'm

842
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 2: playing the mouse.

843
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 1: I'll talk about some of these individual teams and we'll

844
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:05,760
Speaker 1: get into our best bets here. We'll just go ahead

845
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 1: and talk about those. About the Knicks. So you got

846
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:11,719
Speaker 1: the Knicks over forty three and a half as one

847
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 1: of your best bets on the board here. Currently the

848
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 1: Knicks are in the sixth spot thirty three and twenty seven,

849
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:22,320
Speaker 1: pretty good record. You had kind of texted me being like,

850
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 1: what's the deal with the Knicks because it looks like

851
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 1: they're good, And then I showed you their ten games

852
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 1: splits and you were like, oh, okay, I get it now.

853
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:34,800
Speaker 1: I have them projected for number two close to this.

854
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 1: I haven't at forty four point four. This is less

855
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 1: than a game. I don't want to. I just don't

856
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 1: want to lean over with a number that close. I

857
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 1: might look at some seating opportunities with them. But why

858
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:45,399
Speaker 1: do you like the Knicks as the best bet over

859
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:46,239
Speaker 1: forty three and a half?

860
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 2: I like the profile. I got a little scared off

861
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 2: of it by what we were talking about, but I

862
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,320
Speaker 2: think even as you look at it, look it's so

863
00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 2: up and down.

864
00:40:54,280 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 1: Right.

865
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 2: They started out well and then I think lost twelve

866
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:00,840
Speaker 2: out of nineteen, and then they immediately went on that

867
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 2: big December winning streak, and then ended the winning streak

868
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 2: by losing five in a row, and then then won

869
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 2: seven of eight, and then they lost four in a row.

870
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:11,239
Speaker 2: So it's it's when the when is the next losing

871
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 2: streaking to come? And they just won five of six

872
00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 2: into the break, so is it now? Right, that's how

873
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 2: the season has gone so far, So I think that's

874
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:21,720
Speaker 2: the worry overall though, despite all the really bad parts

875
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 2: that are included, there's seventh in net rating, there's sixth

876
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 2: in offensive rating. Jalen Brunson. I think it took them

877
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 2: a while to kind of find his place on this team.

878
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 2: It's clearly his team now, and I think that's worked well.

879
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 2: I think Josh Hart has been a nice addition already

880
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:41,120
Speaker 2: for them, slotting in since start of December. They're a

881
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 2: fifty win team on pace, so I just I like

882
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 2: the profile here. I think that with TIBs, we know

883
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 2: they're going to play hard. We know they're going to

884
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 2: push all the way. They are in a group of

885
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:57,280
Speaker 2: teams New York, Brooklyn, Miami, they're five to six seven

886
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,080
Speaker 2: where they're not going to catch someone above by You

887
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 2: really really want to not be the seven. You want

888
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:04,800
Speaker 2: to stay above so you can avoid that play in.

889
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 2: I just think they push hard and are gonna try

890
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:11,280
Speaker 2: all the way. I don't really love Brooklyn or Miami

891
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 2: regular season either, so this is a little bit I

892
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 2: bet on New York and against them. I just think

893
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 2: they push for it. I have them around forty five

894
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:22,320
Speaker 2: and a half forty six wins, so real clearance on

895
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 2: the forty three and a half. I like the over

896
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 2: it's my favorite wind total in the East right now.

897
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 2: And then the other one too is you can bet

898
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 2: the under seeding under six and a half on the seed,

899
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 2: which is plus one forty five. So now I just

900
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 2: need them to not be the seven seed. Basically, I

901
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,720
Speaker 2: need them to finish ahead of either Brooklyn or Miami.

902
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:45,359
Speaker 2: And I like that kind of as an escalator there

903
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 2: where we're gonna need to hit the wind total. But

904
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 2: I think that they I have them finishing ahead of

905
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,719
Speaker 2: both of them. I just think it's a quality team.

906
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:56,520
Speaker 1: The Knicks. You sorry, you are right though, I actually

907
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 1: like them. I've enjoyed watching this year. They've been really good.

908
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 1: I actually think that, like they play better than their record.

909
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:03,920
Speaker 1: And so here's I'm going to try and talk to

910
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 1: you off of it. The win profile is extremely alarming.

911
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:12,759
Speaker 1: Let's start here, what are games that you like, high

912
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:17,960
Speaker 1: probability win situations at home? Sixteen and fifteen, they're a

913
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 1: half game over five hundred at home. That's concerning next

914
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 1: up division games. Okay, they've played thirteen of the sixteen,

915
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 1: but three out of the twenty four whatever remaining games

916
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:33,439
Speaker 1: is actually like that's a significant little chunk there. They're

917
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:36,359
Speaker 1: only five and eight versus the division. That's concerning they're

918
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:39,359
Speaker 1: pretty good versus the conference. That's encouraging, but they're gonna

919
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 1: have to actually play the Western Conference quite a bit

920
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 1: here because they're already at thirty nine conference games. So

921
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 1: like something to kind of consider there. How about if

922
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 1: we look at their win profile bad versus teams over

923
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 1: five hundred eleven and sixteen. But that's actually fine because

924
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:59,759
Speaker 1: you're not supposed to be great in those games. More

925
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 1: concerning is that they're twenty one and eleven versus teams

926
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:06,440
Speaker 1: below five hundred. That's really like when you're already in

927
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 1: double digits for losses. The sub five hundred, that's a

928
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:11,759
Speaker 1: concern Like that should be a little bit of a

929
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:15,319
Speaker 1: red flag here. It indicates that, if nothing else, they

930
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:17,440
Speaker 1: are slightly more likely than the teams that they are

931
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 1: competing with to lose to bad teams. Now, Miami's only

932
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 1: eighteen and thirteen, So this is where it gets into

933
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 1: the interesting question of New York doesn't have to be good,

934
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 1: they just have to not be as bad as the

935
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 1: other teams. Atlanta is fifteen and fourteen in those spots.

936
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 1: So the teams that they're competing with, you have like

937
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 1: an argument to say they don't have to be good,

938
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:40,719
Speaker 1: they're just better than those the other thing that I

939
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:45,759
Speaker 1: would kind of point to here is their hypervariant. So

940
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 1: they have seventeen wins by double digits. That's compared to

941
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,360
Speaker 1: Brooklyn who's only got fifteen. The Sixers only have nineteen.

942
00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 1: But the Knicks also have twelve losses by double digits.

943
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:59,800
Speaker 1: That's compared to Boston and Philly who have eight, the

944
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:03,320
Speaker 1: Bucks that have ten, the Calves that have eight. Like

945
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:07,840
Speaker 1: it this way, the Bulls are fifteen and thirteen in

946
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 1: double digit games whither they win. They've won fifteen by

947
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:14,760
Speaker 1: double digits, lost thirteen. The Knicks are seventeen and twelve.

948
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:18,480
Speaker 1: They're more bulls like than they are some of these

949
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 1: other kind of situations. They profile a lot more like

950
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:26,359
Speaker 1: the Bulls than they do closer to one of these

951
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,400
Speaker 1: better teams. So that's my concern for you. Have I

952
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:30,800
Speaker 1: managed to talk you off of it? Or do you

953
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 1: want to go ahead and.

954
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 2: Keep it now? I'm going to keep it as a

955
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:35,239
Speaker 2: best bet, but you managed to talk me out of

956
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:37,920
Speaker 2: it being like a multi unit best bet into just

957
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:39,360
Speaker 2: a more traditional.

958
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:41,840
Speaker 1: One's like a little bit of a bet there, okay.

959
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:43,880
Speaker 2: I mean, at the end of the day, just the

960
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 2: number forty three and a half, the Knicks have thirty

961
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:49,360
Speaker 2: three wins. They only have to win eleven more games

962
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 2: to get there. They only have twenty two left, but

963
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:54,319
Speaker 2: eleven and eleven five hundred ball the rest the way

964
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 2: gets us there. They've been a fifty win pace and

965
00:45:57,160 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 2: start December. You're right, see the things are saying, I

966
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 2: know we're gonna get to the end, and you're gonna

967
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:05,800
Speaker 2: be like, y see, you see there here they go

968
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 2: ten and twelve down to the finish. I just I

969
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 2: bet this is a good team.

970
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 1: Like this is not like the Knicks are not fraudulent.

971
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:17,279
Speaker 1: They're a good team. Here's what's really interesting is like

972
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 1: you're basing it off of their overall profile and their

973
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 1: overall profiles that they're a good team because they are.

974
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:24,840
Speaker 1: I just don't know how to win, and that to

975
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,879
Speaker 1: me is like they've won enough, but it's been such

976
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:30,160
Speaker 1: so much of a roller coaster. I can't trust them

977
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 1: to get to the finish line. I need a thirty

978
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 1: second digest from you. With all we have time for

979
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 1: on Pacers under thirty five and a half, So.

980
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 2: We have an article going out probably up as you

981
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 2: listen to this at actually work about tanking. I think

982
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 2: the Pacers are a soft tank team. I think they're

983
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:48,400
Speaker 2: a team that is going to look around the bottom

984
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:51,879
Speaker 2: four in the in the NBA, they're out like they're

985
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 2: their own thing. I think the Pacers are positioned to

986
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 2: make a run quote unquote at the fifth worst record,

987
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 2: and if you look at the lottery odds, that matters.

988
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:02,919
Speaker 2: To be the fifth worst team instead of the eighth worst,

989
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 2: the tenth worst team, you're increasing your odds at possibly

990
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 2: getting Victor Umberiana or Scoot Henderson, who's really good too.

991
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:13,560
Speaker 2: You're increasing by like three times your chance of doing that.

992
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 2: They have lost the Pacers sixteen of their last nineteen,

993
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:23,279
Speaker 2: including two and six with Halliburton back. I just think

994
00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 2: it's done. I think that they're done. I think they

995
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 2: want to tank. I think they want that high draft pick.

996
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:32,479
Speaker 2: In lottery odds under thirty five and a half. They've

997
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 2: got to win twelve of twenty two. They have to

998
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:37,440
Speaker 2: go twelve and ten to go over that number. I

999
00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 2: don't think they could even if they try, and I

1000
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 2: don't know that they want to, especially if the losses

1001
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 2: start to come. They're a team that I think quickly

1002
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:45,440
Speaker 2: pulls the rug out.

1003
00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:48,319
Speaker 1: I asked the folks this weekend about the Pacers Naive

1004
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:51,319
Speaker 1: and Indy just folks are in the league, and someone

1005
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 1: said something very interesting to me. I said, I can't

1006
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 1: figure out what's going on with them, becau they were

1007
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 1: playing really well and now like they're just they've just

1008
00:47:57,280 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 1: really fallen off. And he said, that's something that you

1009
00:48:00,640 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 1: actually find a lot with tanking teams, is that inexplicably

1010
00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:06,239
Speaker 1: they just start to play a little bit worse. No,

1011
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:08,440
Speaker 1: it's not like obvious. It's not like, oh, we just

1012
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 1: sat this guy like sometimes you get that injury. It's

1013
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 1: like they just start to play worse and then that

1014
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:15,400
Speaker 1: justifies like okay, now we'll shut this guy down. The

1015
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:18,719
Speaker 1: tanking stuff is always very slow, and so I thought

1016
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 1: that was very notable.

1017
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:22,279
Speaker 2: Let me make the case for two long shots here

1018
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 2: and see if I can sell you on either one.

1019
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:25,920
Speaker 2: I'll go quick on both, but they're related to each other.

1020
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:29,320
Speaker 2: So two bets I'm looking at. I don't like Miami

1021
00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:31,880
Speaker 2: a lot. I don't like their regular season profile. I

1022
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:35,480
Speaker 2: don't trust their injuries. I don't think that they're going

1023
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:38,279
Speaker 2: to push hard. I don't think they care about seating either.

1024
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:40,840
Speaker 2: I think Jimmy Butler and Bam they don't give a

1025
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 2: rep who they play, They'll take you right now. They'll

1026
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:46,359
Speaker 2: play the play in. They don't really care, just let

1027
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:48,879
Speaker 2: me in. The playoffs will beat you anyway. So I'm

1028
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 2: trying to look how do I fade Miami. Here are

1029
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:54,520
Speaker 2: two ways. Number One, I mentioned that kind of five

1030
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:58,520
Speaker 2: six seven range. Miami's play in odds are plus one

1031
00:48:58,520 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 2: p fifty that it's not quite enough for me to care. However,

1032
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:07,280
Speaker 2: I don't really see them falling further than the seventh seed.

1033
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 2: So Miami to be the exact seventh seed is plus

1034
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:14,400
Speaker 2: three twenty. Basically, that is a bet for Miami to

1035
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 2: finish below New York and Brooklyn, who they're below right now,

1036
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:20,359
Speaker 2: and then just stay above the other teams. I don't

1037
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:24,840
Speaker 2: really see Atlanta, Washington, Toronto really pushing them, except here's

1038
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:29,279
Speaker 2: the other half. Washington Division odds thirteen to one right

1039
00:49:29,360 --> 00:49:34,280
Speaker 2: now at FanDuel Washington fifth and net rating last fifteen games.

1040
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:37,279
Speaker 2: They're kind of good, right Like, they're kind of I

1041
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 2: think you would say similar stuff about them like you

1042
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 2: might about New York. Yeah, you just said they're kind

1043
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:44,919
Speaker 2: of fine. They're kind of a five hundred ish team.

1044
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 2: I just don't think Miami has the push to pull away.

1045
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:53,800
Speaker 2: Miami is right now four wins ahead. They're two to

1046
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 2: one up on Washington head to head, so it's not

1047
00:49:57,000 --> 00:49:59,279
Speaker 2: gonna be easy. It's why it's thirteen to one. But

1048
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 2: what do you think about either of those ways to

1049
00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:03,839
Speaker 2: fade Miami? And if you were going to pick either

1050
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 2: of them, which would you choose?

1051
00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 1: I actually like it.

1052
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 2: I like it.

1053
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:09,920
Speaker 1: So I looked at this this since December fourteenth, which

1054
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:13,160
Speaker 1: is kind of when the Heat stopped being as bad

1055
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:15,279
Speaker 1: and kind of started to stabilize. I was like, well,

1056
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 1: let's look and see, like I'm going to show Brandon

1057
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:19,239
Speaker 1: this this stretch of games where they've been good. The

1058
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:22,000
Speaker 1: Heat are nineteen and twelve since December fourteenth with a

1059
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:25,239
Speaker 1: one point four net rating. The Wizards are seventeen and

1060
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 1: thirteen in that stretch with a plus two point nine.

1061
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 1: So they've played about even in the wind in the record,

1062
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 1: and they've had almost double or a point and a

1063
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 1: half better in point differential. So like, look, it's crazy

1064
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:42,879
Speaker 1: to me that like, and we've been trying to figure

1065
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 1: out this Atlanta or this Southeast Division all year. None

1066
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:48,120
Speaker 1: of these teams are good. The Hawks just fired their coach,

1067
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:50,920
Speaker 1: don't mind the thirteen to one, that's great PAYI if

1068
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 1: you hit it, you're just like whoa who. My only

1069
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:54,840
Speaker 1: concern is that. And I've said this, I got on

1070
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:57,120
Speaker 1: some heat with heat with Wizards fans about this about

1071
00:50:57,719 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 1: I don't know what the motivation is Washington right now. Yeah,

1072
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:04,360
Speaker 1: and that's not just like an organizational thing, Like I

1073
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:05,880
Speaker 1: don't feel like Brad Beial is like, we got to

1074
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:08,120
Speaker 1: make the play in guys. I think Brad Beal is

1075
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 1: like I get paid no matter what, guys, and so

1076
00:51:10,760 --> 00:51:15,120
Speaker 1: without that that they make any significant trades outside a RUI,

1077
00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know if they will be

1078
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:20,320
Speaker 1: able to win tough games that they need to in

1079
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 1: order to make it in. I like their roster, I

1080
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:24,840
Speaker 1: like how they've played. I don't know if I like

1081
00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 1: them enough because like it just this also just kind

1082
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 1: of feels like, much like Bucks in the division, Miami

1083
00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:31,759
Speaker 1: is just gonna find a way to do this, Like

1084
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 1: it's gonna be ugly. You and I are gonna be like,

1085
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:35,200
Speaker 1: this team's not good and then we're just gonna be

1086
00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 1: sitting there with them as a succeed Again.

1087
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:39,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that that's fair with Washington. Another thing too.

1088
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 2: That's kind of a weird complicating factor Washington, is it

1089
00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:48,640
Speaker 2: is in the Wizard's franchise best interest to finish bottom

1090
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:52,799
Speaker 2: fourteen AKA and not make the playoffs because they get

1091
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:55,359
Speaker 2: to keep their draft pick. If it is fourteenth, they're better.

1092
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 2: Otherwise it is gone, and that it conveys a while

1093
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 2: forward where they're probab we're going to keep on keeping

1094
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:02,359
Speaker 2: it for a while. I think it's one of those

1095
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 2: nicked draft picks that they got in the trade. So

1096
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 2: that's a weird thing too, where look, they could still

1097
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:10,359
Speaker 2: win the division and make the play in and then

1098
00:52:10,480 --> 00:52:12,839
Speaker 2: just lose the play in and still get that number

1099
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:16,160
Speaker 2: fourteen pick back. But it's a weird complicating factor to

1100
00:52:16,239 --> 00:52:20,439
Speaker 2: you where there is some organizational motivation to maybe shut

1101
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:23,880
Speaker 2: things down. It's just that that's been there before, and

1102
00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:25,759
Speaker 2: it hasn't stopped them the last two months, and it

1103
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:28,040
Speaker 2: didn't make them trade their guys away like I think

1104
00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:30,440
Speaker 2: they should. And I certainly want them to blow it

1105
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 2: up and do some different thing than just be the

1106
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:35,680
Speaker 2: fricking Wizard stuck in the middle. They don't seem to

1107
00:52:35,719 --> 00:52:38,040
Speaker 2: care about that. So if they're going to not care,

1108
00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:40,319
Speaker 2: I guess I will not care and let them win

1109
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:43,920
Speaker 2: some games. You got any other best bets from the East, Yeah.

1110
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:45,920
Speaker 1: I got two. I've only got two, but I do

1111
00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:48,840
Speaker 1: like these quite a bit. I actually have, and we

1112
00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:50,120
Speaker 1: didn't talk about this because I want to save it

1113
00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 1: for best bets. I have Calves whin the Eastern Conference

1114
00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:55,279
Speaker 1: title at plus eleven hundred. I put that in the out.

1115
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:57,440
Speaker 1: I think this number shortens of the Calves going a

1116
00:52:57,440 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 1: little bit of a run here. They've gotten healthier, they

1117
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:02,000
Speaker 1: figured out some stuff. They've had some like their record

1118
00:53:02,080 --> 00:53:04,920
Speaker 1: with with Garland and Mitchell is excellent. They're really good,

1119
00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:06,840
Speaker 1: Like when they have their guys, they're really good, and

1120
00:53:07,200 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 1: they've already had some injury stuff. I don't think the

1121
00:53:09,360 --> 00:53:12,319
Speaker 1: Kevin Love buyout hurts them. I think it's fine. They

1122
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 1: should have made a trade for a wing. Sure. The

1123
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 1: reason I like this is because if like you and

1124
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:21,080
Speaker 1: I agree that it looks like it's gonna be Boston one,

1125
00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:25,799
Speaker 1: Philly or Milwaukee two, and then Philly or Milwaukee three,

1126
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:28,600
Speaker 1: which leaves four for the Calves. They're gonna get the

1127
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:31,120
Speaker 1: Knicks or the Heat in a five six, maybe the

1128
00:53:31,160 --> 00:53:34,080
Speaker 1: Hawks or the Wizards. They'll get one of those teams.

1129
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:35,919
Speaker 1: So the four or five won't be as tough because

1130
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:38,000
Speaker 1: I think Cleveland is a I think Cleveland is a

1131
00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:40,879
Speaker 1: tier above those teams. I think Cleveland is I think

1132
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:44,920
Speaker 1: Cleveland is closer to Boston. Usually it's not that. Usually

1133
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:47,839
Speaker 1: it's like Boston, Philly, Milwaukee, and then there's a drop

1134
00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:50,680
Speaker 1: off and there's Cleveland. That's what the market says. I

1135
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:52,839
Speaker 1: don't think that that's it. I think Cleveland is much

1136
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:56,960
Speaker 1: closer to Boston, Philly, Milwaukee in overall team quality, which

1137
00:53:57,080 --> 00:53:59,000
Speaker 1: means they should be able to handle the four five.

1138
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:02,880
Speaker 1: And if they do, they are the only team that

1139
00:54:03,040 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 1: I like the value on them going against the Celtics.

1140
00:54:06,040 --> 00:54:09,720
Speaker 1: That doesn't mean that I'm like they're gonna I'm stone

1141
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:12,600
Speaker 1: cold lock they're gonna beat Boston. Boston might beat the

1142
00:54:12,719 --> 00:54:14,680
Speaker 1: shit out of them because the Calves have never really

1143
00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:18,080
Speaker 1: made a playoff run, but they won the two previous

1144
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 1: season meetings. We'll see what happens as they finish up

1145
00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 1: that season series. It's not about beating them in the

1146
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 1: regular season. I don't care about that. It's about the matchup,

1147
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:27,919
Speaker 1: and it's that a lot of what Boston does gets

1148
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 1: negated by the kind of team that Cleveland has built

1149
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 1: the two big, hyper athletic guys can both cover Horford

1150
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:39,200
Speaker 1: on the perimeter. They can. If they're like, we're gonna

1151
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:42,839
Speaker 1: go Horford small, fine, no problem. We can either match

1152
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:45,759
Speaker 1: you big and overwhelm you with size and kill you

1153
00:54:45,880 --> 00:54:49,200
Speaker 1: on the offensive glass, or we can play Evan Mobley

1154
00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:51,560
Speaker 1: at five if we absolutely need to. If Jared Allen's

1155
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:54,239
Speaker 1: not there, we'll play Evan Mobley in those minutes at five. Oh,

1156
00:54:54,320 --> 00:54:56,120
Speaker 1: we're gonna take Horford off the floor and we're gonna

1157
00:54:56,120 --> 00:54:59,200
Speaker 1: one run, one four, pick and roll with Robert Williams. Fine,

1158
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:02,320
Speaker 1: we're Jared Allen at five and we're gonna counter you

1159
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:05,239
Speaker 1: with switch all with Chetty. They have a lot of depth.

1160
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:08,600
Speaker 1: Cheddy Osman, by the way, amongst qualifying bench players, best

1161
00:55:08,680 --> 00:55:10,600
Speaker 1: net rating in the league for amongst the bench player,

1162
00:55:11,080 --> 00:55:13,360
Speaker 1: Like that's really surprising to me, given what the benches

1163
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:16,600
Speaker 1: look like in various games. I don't worry as much

1164
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:19,360
Speaker 1: about the shooting because so much of their problem shooting

1165
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:22,000
Speaker 1: is in the minutes when Donovan's off the floor. Donovan

1166
00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 1: can fire off of like Donovan can hit threes on

1167
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:29,279
Speaker 1: his own. They have all star level guards, they have

1168
00:55:29,400 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 1: all star level forwards. They're week on the wing. It's

1169
00:55:32,320 --> 00:55:35,240
Speaker 1: gonna be Okoro getting smashed by Tatum for seven games.

1170
00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:37,800
Speaker 1: But I would definitely I would look to bet the

1171
00:55:37,880 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 1: Cavaliers at a a on a series line price, but

1172
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 1: at eleven to one, with every the amount of variance

1173
00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:49,640
Speaker 1: that's built in here. I like this a lot because

1174
00:55:49,680 --> 00:55:51,880
Speaker 1: they could actually make it to a conference finals. I

1175
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:54,480
Speaker 1: would bet the other team in the conference finals, regardless

1176
00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:56,480
Speaker 1: of which of the other two they make. But that's

1177
00:55:56,600 --> 00:55:58,600
Speaker 1: enough to get me on board with plus eleven hundred

1178
00:55:58,640 --> 00:55:59,879
Speaker 1: for the Cavs the win the East.

1179
00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:02,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind it. I like the Cavs a lot.

1180
00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:06,399
Speaker 2: I agree that we are talking about a four team

1181
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:09,959
Speaker 2: Eastern Conference. I don't think you need to make great

1182
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 2: plans for Round one of the Eastern playoffs. I think

1183
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:15,319
Speaker 2: you can go ahead and still have some some late

1184
00:56:15,400 --> 00:56:18,479
Speaker 2: dinners and settle in for the Western Conference games those nights.

1185
00:56:18,880 --> 00:56:20,800
Speaker 2: I don't think we're going to get much happening in

1186
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:23,239
Speaker 2: round one. We got four teams, we know who they are.

1187
00:56:23,640 --> 00:56:25,360
Speaker 2: Here's how I do it a little differently than you.

1188
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:28,759
Speaker 2: I'm gonna put Boston and Milwaukee together in a tier

1189
00:56:28,840 --> 00:56:31,560
Speaker 2: alone away from the next two so to me, I

1190
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,319
Speaker 2: just think Boston or Milwaukee and that's it. In the East.

1191
00:56:34,400 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 2: I think it's one of those teams, and I don't

1192
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:39,440
Speaker 2: give anyone else much of a chance. But I'll put

1193
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 2: Cleveland had of Philadelphia after that in the playoffs. We've

1194
00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:45,320
Speaker 2: done all the Philly regular season stuff. But you know

1195
00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:48,319
Speaker 2: why I like Cleveland and not Philadelphia. Here's why they

1196
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:51,360
Speaker 2: don't have James Harden or Joel Embiid. They got other dudes.

1197
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:54,320
Speaker 2: And I've seen Donald Mitchell performing the playoffs and he

1198
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:56,239
Speaker 2: might be the only one that's been here before. But

1199
00:56:56,360 --> 00:56:58,719
Speaker 2: the dude shows up and it's really good here and

1200
00:56:58,880 --> 00:57:01,279
Speaker 2: can really step it up. And you're right, I like

1201
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:05,040
Speaker 2: the formula, I like the defense. I think Donovan, you know,

1202
00:57:05,840 --> 00:57:09,239
Speaker 2: before the season or before they got Donovan Mitchell, I

1203
00:57:09,320 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 2: think probably I was wrong in my highest optimism for

1204
00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 2: the Cavs. I don't think they had enough offense to

1205
00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:19,880
Speaker 2: go to one of these series you're talking about. Donovan

1206
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:22,920
Speaker 2: changes that and gives them a chance. They're still gonna

1207
00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:25,480
Speaker 2: not be the better team, but he gives them a

1208
00:57:25,600 --> 00:57:28,880
Speaker 2: chance there. I think I'd still rather just bet Milwaukee

1209
00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:31,200
Speaker 2: or Boston or wait for the spot for that but

1210
00:57:31,320 --> 00:57:34,200
Speaker 2: I will take Cleveland over any chance about Philly in

1211
00:57:34,320 --> 00:57:35,600
Speaker 2: the playoffs every time.

1212
00:57:36,160 --> 00:57:37,640
Speaker 1: The other one I like is the over on the

1213
00:57:37,720 --> 00:57:40,000
Speaker 1: Orlando Magic thirty three and a half. I have them

1214
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:43,440
Speaker 1: at thirty four, and Brandon, because I've been podcasting with

1215
00:57:43,560 --> 00:57:46,840
Speaker 1: you too long, I will bet plus thirteen hundred to

1216
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 1: make the play in. That's right. I have them projected

1217
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:56,280
Speaker 1: currently at thirty four wins. I have them out, but

1218
00:57:56,400 --> 00:57:58,160
Speaker 1: I have the Raptors at thirty eight. I have the

1219
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:01,480
Speaker 1: Pacers at thirty five. The last team in would be

1220
00:58:01,520 --> 00:58:04,360
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bulls at thirty eight currently, and so I'm

1221
00:58:04,360 --> 00:58:06,680
Speaker 1: projecting like the Magic at four above where I've got

1222
00:58:06,720 --> 00:58:09,920
Speaker 1: them currently projected. I haven't done a manual adjustment on

1223
00:58:10,120 --> 00:58:14,280
Speaker 1: Orlando based off of their regular season performance. Basically what

1224
00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 1: happened was they were without a point guard. They lost

1225
00:58:17,080 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 1: both point guards early, didn't have point guard for like

1226
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:22,120
Speaker 1: two months of the season, got a point guard, but

1227
00:58:22,240 --> 00:58:26,760
Speaker 1: then lost their center, Win o'carter Junior, and Palow was

1228
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:29,800
Speaker 1: out some and when they finally like have gotten everybody

1229
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:32,320
Speaker 1: back together and they have all their assortment the numbers

1230
00:58:32,360 --> 00:58:33,920
Speaker 1: for the starting unit that you want to see with

1231
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:40,440
Speaker 1: Suggs and Marcel and Pallo and Vagner and WCJ are

1232
00:58:40,440 --> 00:58:43,400
Speaker 1: not great. They're still a minus, but they're much closer

1233
00:58:43,480 --> 00:58:45,560
Speaker 1: to like a thirty eight win team, and they have

1234
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:49,439
Speaker 1: figured out like Mosley's coaching his ass off, I still

1235
00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 1: kind of wonder but like Toronto's, is probably the boring

1236
00:58:51,960 --> 00:58:54,160
Speaker 1: answer here for where the value is. But at thirteen

1237
00:58:54,200 --> 00:58:55,919
Speaker 1: to one, I'll take a flyer on the Orlando Magic.

1238
00:58:55,960 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 1: I'm already gonna hit there. I'm basically going to free

1239
00:58:58,440 --> 00:59:00,200
Speaker 1: roll my twenty seven and a half over or that

1240
00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:02,400
Speaker 1: they're gonna hit on the win total and put a

1241
00:59:02,440 --> 00:59:04,480
Speaker 1: sprinkle of that on thirteen to want to make the plan.

1242
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:08,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would lean over here. I'm just not interested

1243
00:59:08,520 --> 00:59:10,800
Speaker 2: in putting my money on Orlando. They're a team that

1244
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 2: you've had a little more interested in the whole season.

1245
00:59:13,080 --> 00:59:15,200
Speaker 1: You don't watch your case, you're gonna love them. Just

1246
00:59:15,280 --> 00:59:16,840
Speaker 1: watch a couple of games. You're gonna love them.

1247
00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:19,760
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, no, I've seen them recently. It's a fun team.

1248
00:59:20,120 --> 00:59:22,680
Speaker 2: Here's my one caution for you for your bad I

1249
00:59:22,840 --> 00:59:24,160
Speaker 2: like the over. If I had to pick a side,

1250
00:59:24,200 --> 00:59:26,560
Speaker 2: it's what i'd play. I don't think they're a tank team.

1251
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:29,640
Speaker 2: I think they're one of those where Brandon wants them

1252
00:59:29,680 --> 00:59:33,000
Speaker 2: to tank by team culture and wins profile and like

1253
00:59:33,360 --> 00:59:35,280
Speaker 2: learning the young guys learning to win. I think that's

1254
00:59:35,320 --> 00:59:39,000
Speaker 2: a thing. Here's my problem. At some point, even when

1255
00:59:39,000 --> 00:59:41,360
Speaker 2: you're not a tank team, you might become a tank

1256
00:59:41,400 --> 00:59:44,000
Speaker 2: team if the profile gets there. The schedule out of

1257
00:59:44,040 --> 00:59:46,320
Speaker 2: the All Star Break pretty soft, like they can win

1258
00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:50,000
Speaker 2: some games, they can believe, hey, we're hanging around. But

1259
00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:54,440
Speaker 2: if it goes last four games of the season, Orlando

1260
00:59:54,560 --> 00:59:58,840
Speaker 2: plays the Calves, the Calves again at Brooklyn at Miami,

1261
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:01,960
Speaker 2: all four team Eiams, who probably are trying to win

1262
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:04,240
Speaker 2: Brooklyn and Miami. You're probably trying to get out of

1263
01:00:04,320 --> 01:00:06,600
Speaker 2: that play. And at the end, if we or Orlando

1264
01:00:06,960 --> 01:00:09,760
Speaker 2: starts to slip a little bit, that is an L

1265
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:13,120
Speaker 2: four to end the season waiting to happen. And I

1266
01:00:13,320 --> 01:00:16,520
Speaker 2: really don't need your tickets sitting on like all right,

1267
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 2: one week left. All you need is one more win.

1268
01:00:19,080 --> 01:00:22,640
Speaker 2: And then they're just like, yeah, but we could jump

1269
01:00:22,800 --> 01:00:25,360
Speaker 2: three spots in the lottery odds and I think we're

1270
01:00:25,400 --> 01:00:28,280
Speaker 2: good here with this last week. That's my only concern there.

1271
01:00:28,560 --> 01:00:31,480
Speaker 1: That'll do it for this NBA post All Star Futures

1272
01:00:31,480 --> 01:00:34,240
Speaker 1: episode for the Action Network podcast Up and Your host

1273
01:00:34,320 --> 01:00:36,480
Speaker 1: Matt Moore. If you like this episode, make sure check

1274
01:00:36,520 --> 01:00:39,400
Speaker 1: us out every single weekday over on Buckets, the NBA

1275
01:00:39,520 --> 01:00:42,520
Speaker 1: Betting Podcast from the Action Network, where we preview all

1276
01:00:42,600 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 1: things NBA betting Monday to Friday all season long. Enjoy

1277
01:00:46,880 --> 01:00:49,000
Speaker 1: the rest of your week. We'll catch you guys again

1278
01:00:49,080 --> 01:01:02,840
Speaker 1: next time on the Action Network podcast. Action Network reminds

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Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

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Speaker 1: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

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Speaker 1: seven at one eight hundred Gambler