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Speaker 1: So let's get to our guest, Ryan Alman, market strategists

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Speaker 1: at Zephyr, So a lot to talk about this morning.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned five challenges off the top there, Ryan, there

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Speaker 1: are plenty more. Do you see caution this week, perhaps

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Speaker 1: even sideways movement or just flat out selling to take

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Speaker 1: down risk? First, Thank you so much for having me on.

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Speaker 1: That's a great question. I think we're going to see

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Speaker 1: more sideways to a little downside. I don't think we're

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Speaker 1: going to see a big sell off, even though I

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Speaker 1: do believe in the near term outlook over the next

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Speaker 1: three to six months of the oh look for equities

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Speaker 1: remains very challenging. Uh. This week, we're a little bit

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Speaker 1: light on economic data. We get the pm I at

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the week, but the big headline event

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Speaker 1: is going to be the ECB and they're likely to

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Speaker 1: raise interest rates this week, even though they've got a

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Speaker 1: lot of issues there, especially with the nords Nord Steam

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Speaker 1: pipeline indefinitely lee UM closed, so there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: issues there. But I think in the you know, this

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Speaker 1: week ahead, I don't see you know, the shortened weeks

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Speaker 1: of volumes might be a little bit lower UM, but

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Speaker 1: there's like you said, a lot of uncertainty out there.

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Speaker 1: Hey Ryan, Stephen Engel here, I think I see. The

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Speaker 1: last time we spoke to you on Bloomberg Television was

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Speaker 1: just before Jackson Hole was in August. You of course

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Speaker 1: said that you remain cautious overall as the FED remains

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Speaker 1: vigilant against inflation. Did anything come out of Jackson Hole

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Speaker 1: in the more hawkish tone from J. Powell and company?

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Speaker 1: Did did it change your outlook? You know, like like

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Speaker 1: the market has digested. Yeah, that's a great point, Stephen,

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Speaker 1: and it hasn't um since Jackson Hole. It's really just

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Speaker 1: um confirmed my my caution that I think you have

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Speaker 1: to remain cautious overall because of FED remains steadfast and

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Speaker 1: its fight against inflation, and Powell's statements at Jackson Holt

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Speaker 1: just confirmed that too is And I think it's time

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Speaker 1: to continue to play defense by focusing on high quality

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Speaker 1: names that have a strong cash flow, solid balance sheets,

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Speaker 1: and pay consistent dividends, because it's gonna be um turbulent

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Speaker 1: here for the next three or six months as Defect

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Speaker 1: continues its fight against inflation. I'm a little surprised to

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Speaker 1: hear you say that. Actually, uh, personally, I felt that

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Speaker 1: it indicated that the FED was sort of giving up

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Speaker 1: on on a soft landing um and they basically have

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Speaker 1: told you that they're gonna crush inflation no matter what

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Speaker 1: it takes. And to me, that's a lot different than

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Speaker 1: the message we took away from Powell at the last

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Speaker 1: FED meeting, where it seemed like, um, they were still

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Speaker 1: trying to get a nuanced approach to this. So I

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Speaker 1: think previously we had a great market rally from June

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Speaker 1: those and I really thought it was a bear market rally,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of that was on belief that the

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Speaker 1: FED was going to slow its apace and and come

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Speaker 1: off at seventy five bases point hiked and market really

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Speaker 1: rallied thinking the economy showed enough softness that that FED

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Speaker 1: was going to pivot. Once Jackson whole hit, his tone

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Speaker 1: did turn much more hawkish. And that's why I still

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Speaker 1: believe that there's gonna be a lot of challenges over

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Speaker 1: the next three months because if FED is going to

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Speaker 1: I think they're going to raise rates. You know, there's

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Speaker 1: seventy five basis points here this month. Do you have

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Speaker 1: a hot take for investing in the Asia Pacific? Obviously,

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Speaker 1: as Denise just talked about the expanding COVID zero policies

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Speaker 1: and lockdowns in China limiting growth there. But look at

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Speaker 1: the king dollar, with the yen at one forty holding

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Speaker 1: firm and also of course the yuan in China close

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Speaker 1: to seven. What do you have a hot take? You know,

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Speaker 1: I don't necessarily I wouldn't call it a hot take.

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Speaker 1: I remained pretty cautious on the emerging market in Asia

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Speaker 1: right now. Um. You know, China have had a Chinese

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Speaker 1: equities had a fantastic run there during the second quarter.

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Speaker 1: Really I'll performed every other region. But you know, there

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Speaker 1: are some concerns therewith um, you know, COVID zero again,

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Speaker 1: you know, like you just mentioned. But you also always

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Speaker 1: have to be concerned about geopolitics, the risk there with Taiwan. UM,

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot of concerns there. I remained a

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Speaker 1: little bit cautious there. There could be some opportunities for

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Speaker 1: some longer term time horizon investors, you know, buying um

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Speaker 1: some of those beaten up regions, but I remain cautious.

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Speaker 1: We ran a couple of stories over the weekend about

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Speaker 1: how Southeast Asia was kind of standing out as a

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Speaker 1: Safe Zone. Have you looked at much of that region,

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Speaker 1: you know a little bit when I think of you know,

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Speaker 1: emerging markets, and regardless of the region, you always have

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Speaker 1: to be concerned about the US dollar too, and the

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Speaker 1: U S dollar. You know, continu is surging right now

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Speaker 1: for multiple reasons, and that also plays into the role

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Speaker 1: of why I'm a little bit cautious. But there could

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Speaker 1: be some individual countries, like you said, that provide some

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Speaker 1: opportunities foreign investors that are trying to diversify their portfolios

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Speaker 1: and um, you know, reduce some of the overall system

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Speaker 1: at a Chris Ryan, what do you see for the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter? Are we going to be down in the

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Speaker 1: sp or will will we get some sort of what

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Speaker 1: I guess, uh tail wind going into next year? I

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Speaker 1: don't think so. I think we are going to finish

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Speaker 1: a little bit down. I don't see as being down

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Speaker 1: temper cent or fift percent, but there are definitely some

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Speaker 1: headwinds ahead, you know, with earnings. We haven't really seen

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Speaker 1: a bunch of um for earnings their forecast change, so

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Speaker 1: I think we're gonna see some of that moving forward.

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Speaker 1: But again it's gonna be uh the Feds higher interest rate,

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Speaker 1: I'm softening you s economy that's going to continue to

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Speaker 1: wait on investor sentiment moving forward. I mentioned earlier that

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Speaker 1: rising real yields are going to be a big challenge

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Speaker 1: for corporates. Um let's talk a little bit about what's

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Speaker 1: affected the most by that, uh and and where you

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Speaker 1: see kind of more secure areas as a result. That's

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Speaker 1: a great question. And obviously riding real yields on a

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Speaker 1: macro level are gonna um negatively impact the economy, right

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Speaker 1: It's going to be tighter monetary policies, tighter financial conditions, um.

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Speaker 1: More On the investment side, I think to first place

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Speaker 1: who have to look at is technology, right how your yields,

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Speaker 1: How your real yields tend to impact those higher growth,

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Speaker 1: higher valuation sectors. So would you be shorting there or

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Speaker 1: would you just be avoiding? I wouldn't. I would just

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Speaker 1: stay neutral to avoiding that. I want to short it necessarily.

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Speaker 1: I think you just have to stay true to your

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Speaker 1: investment um objectives and not take any big wagers right

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Speaker 1: now because of the uncertainties. But I definitely wouldn't be

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Speaker 1: going to overweight in technology right now. So where would

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Speaker 1: you go? Cash? Yeah, you know, cash is necessarily a

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Speaker 1: bad thing. And considering you know what type of investor

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Speaker 1: you are, but you have to look at alternatives. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe real estate you know reads um, even

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Speaker 1: though housing real estates really you know, hurting right now,

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Speaker 1: but you've got to look at some alternatives out there.

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Speaker 1: I think to add some diversification to offset some of

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Speaker 1: these rising real yields. All right, Ryan Nolman, thanks so

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Speaker 1: much for your insight on the