1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:06,640 Speaker 1: Geopolitics blot Today, let's step back. Every business day we 2 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:11,559 Speaker 1: bring new interviews from CEO market crows, Bloomberg experts, along 3 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: with essential market moves news bloom Market podcast or wherever 4 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 1: podcast dot com or slash Podcast. Capital Management located in 5 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: some third rate hamlet called Chapel Hill, North Carolina. I mean, 6 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 1: I guess you couldn't find any office space in. Mark 7 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:33,480 Speaker 1: Paul's a duke guy in Durham, North Carolina. But we'll 8 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,240 Speaker 1: check in with Mark anyway. Mark, what are you telling 9 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 1: your clients here as they kind of raise all some 10 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: of these you know, these bricks in this wall of 11 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,639 Speaker 1: worry here. No, it's a great, great point. And uh, 12 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 1: you know, congrats to the boys at University of New 13 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 1: Jersey at Durham down the road. Very good. Um, But look, 14 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: we we are cautious in the current environment. You know, 15 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:01,959 Speaker 1: we were living in a world of financial repression. As 16 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 1: to me is the biggest problem. Savers are just being 17 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 1: punished with these low interest rates. And although the Feds 18 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 1: making noises about raising I actually don't think they can. 19 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 1: So that'll cause that'll take one of the stressors away 20 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: when they finally do what I'll call the Powell pivot 21 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 1: and he finally admits that he really can't raise rates. 22 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:24,399 Speaker 1: You you mentioned that economic growth is slowing very dramatically. 23 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: We're just gonna see negative growth in Europe in the 24 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 1: first quarter, could possibly see little zero growth in the US. 25 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:36,040 Speaker 1: And then corporate profits are rolling over, Earnings estimates are 26 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 1: being slashed, so we feel that you should be hedged 27 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 1: with a capital duh, and hedge funds are are likely 28 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 1: to have a much better year this year than they 29 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: did last year. We still do like one area, which 30 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: is oil. We think energy is an interesting place to be. 31 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: Things like MLPs good place to hide. They're just very, 32 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 1: very cheap. Because even if everybody wants an e v 33 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 1: it will take a third years to everyone to have 34 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 1: an EVY. So it's going to take a while before 35 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: oil is not necessary wants one. That what's true, that's 36 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: that's the only thing that you know, some of us 37 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: have range anxiety, right, we like to travel long distances. Um. 38 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: But but then I think the last thing we're telling 39 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 1: people is, uh, don't really stress too much about the 40 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 1: noise of geopolitics, really focus on the signal, and um, 41 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 1: you know, we think there's lower risk of some big event, 42 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 1: and then I think many in the DC area would 43 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: have us believe but um, you know, we're we're cautious, 44 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 1: but but not completely out of markets. So why do 45 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 1: you think we've seen such an outperformance of you know, 46 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 1: we were just graphing oil. Um, since the pandemic against 47 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:54,359 Speaker 1: the producers and the underlying commodity has done so much better. 48 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,080 Speaker 1: It's great, great, great point. And I think that the challenges, 49 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 1: particularly the US, we had a lot of producers that 50 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 1: were over levered and a whole bunch of them went 51 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: out of business, So that clearly impacts the indices that 52 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: that you know, the broad baskets of those producers. There 53 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 1: are some individual companies, you know, my favorite, Diamondback Energy. 54 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 1: I would say Fang has outperformed Fang, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, 55 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: Google over the past year. Again this year, we think 56 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 1: it all out performed for a while. Uh. And then 57 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: there's a other company like ovent Iv and Marathon Oxy 58 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 1: which have done really really well, outperformed oil. But you're right, 59 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 1: the basket has underperformed because there's just a lot of 60 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: companies that uh, this across all industries. You know, we 61 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 1: we extended credit to not so credit worthy businesses. UM. 62 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 1: I say we, I mean the economy, and some of 63 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 1: those went out of business. I guess in in the 64 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: lockdowns after the pandemic, and it's it's really been tough. 65 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: And I think one of the reasons oil prices surged 66 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 1: so much is so much supply came offline. So mark 67 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 1: in the fixed income space, do you guys see opportunities there? Again? 68 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 1: We have a federal reserve that is clearly signaled a 69 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: rising interest rates and if you look at the w 70 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 1: I r P function on the Bloomberg terminal, could be 71 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:21,040 Speaker 1: as many seven hikes. How do you think about that 72 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 1: as a rates to fixed income opportunities? Yeah, I'm gonna 73 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 1: take the under. I'm gonna take the way under on that. 74 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 1: I don't think there'll be anywhere close to seven. I 75 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:33,719 Speaker 1: don't even think there'll be, you know, three or four. 76 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 1: I think they probably will try to hike here in March. 77 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 1: I think they'll probably wimp out and not do fifty 78 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 1: basis points. Um. You know, the challenges have been behind 79 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: the curve since two thousand, uh for a hundred and 80 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:54,799 Speaker 1: something years, the average short term rate roughly equal nominal 81 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 1: GDP growth, and you know that hasn't been true for 82 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 1: a years, and I think they should get back to 83 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 1: a normal functioning interest rate environment. Uh, because that's what 84 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 1: capitalism is predicated on. That you know, you can put 85 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,360 Speaker 1: your capital at work and get and get paid for it. 86 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: Think about being in Europe or Japan, you have to 87 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: pay banks to keep your money. At least here you 88 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: get zero point five. That's why we actually came up 89 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,720 Speaker 1: with this thing csh new e t F that takes 90 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 1: advantage of spack arbitrage to give people something, you know, 91 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 1: we think low single digits on their their savings because 92 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 1: we think traditional bonds, high yield bonds aren't very high. 93 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: Taking credit risk, you're taking duration risks, both of which 94 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: look kind of dicey in this market. So having at 95 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:49,840 Speaker 1: least something on your your savings leaving makes a lot 96 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 1: of sense. All right, Mark, thank you so much. We 97 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:56,600 Speaker 1: appreciate checking in with you. Mark. Yes goo uh. He 98 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:00,280 Speaker 1: is with CEO, c I O and founder Morgan Creek 99 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: Capital Management based in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, which is 100 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:08,599 Speaker 1: actually a very very beautiful community there despite the University 101 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: of North Carolina, and you want to see such a 102 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 1: great school and they have such a great basketball history. Yeah, 103 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 1: just not quite as great as their friends down route 104 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: fifteen five oh one at the Duke University. But yeah, 105 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,599 Speaker 1: we all respect the UNC Chapel Hill there. You're good, 106 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 1: good hoops and we love playing against them. This Federal 107 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: Reserve is gonna be looking clearly at some of the 108 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 1: economic data coming up, and we want to check in 109 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 1: with Michael McKee covers all things economics for us here, Michael, 110 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 1: as you think about this Federal Reserve, we're talking about 111 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 1: hiking rates. W I r P is saying seven rate 112 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 1: hikes this year. What do you think the Federal Reserve 113 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 1: is really looking at in terms of data? Can I 114 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 1: also say the word function looks better than ever you 115 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 1: I know, we're on radio see it. But it's so 116 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 1: improved to the old word function, So I highly recommend 117 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:07,480 Speaker 1: people check it out. The thing that's interesting is that 118 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 1: we consider one rate hike to be twenty five basis points. 119 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: That always is that just the standard rate hike measurement. Well, 120 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 1: it became that under Alan Greenspan the years before they 121 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 1: used to announce what was going on, they would raise 122 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 1: it by all kinds of numbers, fifteen or ten or 123 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: thirty five, whatever they thought was necessary, particularly in the 124 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: Vulcar years when they were doing UH monetary aggregates as 125 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 1: a guide, so they were trying to figure out how 126 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 1: much money they'd be creating. But um, at this point 127 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 1: the Fed is UH looking at to answer your question, 128 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: inflation and unemployment. Unemployment, they noted in the Minutes yesterday 129 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: had pretty much gotten to where they wanted it to be. 130 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 1: It's inflation they're worried about. So the Fed is at 131 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 1: this point planning on moving in March. By the way, 132 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: has an employment changed that much or did they just 133 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 1: start to get worried enough about inflation that they felt 134 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 1: like it was we changed a huge amount. I mean, 135 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: it's it's already down basically to almost where it was 136 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 1: before the pandemic. We were at three point five, three 137 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 1: point six, and now we're at three, while we're at four, 138 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 1: but we were at three point nine. As more people 139 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 1: come back, so pretty much at full employment, we're not 140 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 1: going to get the same statistics that we got before 141 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: the pandemic because people have not come back into the 142 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 1: labor force, so that great resignation start. Yeah, well, we're 143 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 1: all working, so I don't I don't see any of it. 144 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 1: But but you're right, man, it's basis points become the standard. 145 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: And now they don't even do it by basis points. 146 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 1: They're doing it by range of now and then it 147 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: will be fifty. And what the market is doing, and 148 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 1: this is your w I. R. P. Lesson is looking 149 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 1: at what the effective FED funds rate is likely to be, 150 00:08:56,920 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 1: which is right now around seven basis points. So if 151 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:01,679 Speaker 1: you look at the next move and you see that 152 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:04,319 Speaker 1: the implied rate is thirty two basis points, then that's 153 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 1: a basis point move. So uh, it's it's a little complicated, 154 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 1: but once you get used to it, YouTube like it. 155 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: You know, in terms of that um uh measured policy 156 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: behavior and the transparency that the Fed wants to I mean, 157 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 1: are we gonna stick with that throughout the pal Fed? 158 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:28,959 Speaker 1: Will we ever get back to them saying, you know what, 159 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 1: let's have an emergency meeting and you know what, we'll 160 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,840 Speaker 1: raise my fifty basis points now at five, Well, they've 161 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 1: had emergency meetings. They had an emergency meeting, But they 162 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 1: can only do an emergency meeting to cuts, right, because 163 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:42,720 Speaker 1: the cold do an emergency meeting to raise if they 164 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: felt it was necessary. It's it's hard to do because 165 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: I doubt you're legally they can do it, but you're right, 166 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:53,839 Speaker 1: it's it would be a shock to markets. Uh. And 167 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,679 Speaker 1: it was pretty obvious when we hit the pandemic and 168 00:09:57,000 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 1: market seized up and weren't working that they had to 169 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 1: cut rate. So the meeting, the emergency meeting they held 170 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:05,679 Speaker 1: was not a bad thing. But do you know he 171 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: was saying this yesterday? Actually I was struggling to remember 172 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:13,439 Speaker 1: because I'm getting it was Daniel D. Martino booth Um, 173 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 1: And to be fair, her book was titled fed Up, 174 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,599 Speaker 1: so you can tell where she's coming from. But she 175 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,679 Speaker 1: was saying yesterday, you know, this isn't cool because the 176 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 1: Fed is so careful when it comes to markets, right, 177 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 1: they don't want to spoot the markets, but they don't 178 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: care about the common man paying five dollars at the pump. 179 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,079 Speaker 1: If they wanted to tackle inflation right now, she was 180 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 1: she was saying, and Paul made a great counter argument 181 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 1: that really about the supply chain. If they wanted to 182 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:42,559 Speaker 1: fight inflation, they would just have an emergency meeting and 183 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: raise fifty basis points now and maybe six eight months 184 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:49,680 Speaker 1: from now. That would slow start to slow business activity. 185 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 1: Policy working with a lag, So it's not really going 186 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,679 Speaker 1: to help. I mean, we were surprised by retail sales 187 00:10:56,800 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 1: yesterday and how good they were, and we've been surprised 188 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: by how strong uh consumer credit has been. People want 189 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 1: to spend money. Well, retail sales disappointed the last two reports. 190 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 1: Think about how bad it was in December, and that 191 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: was Christmas, but that was because October was better, So 192 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 1: I mean we pulled it forward. That's you're just basically 193 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 1: outlining that why it's so hard for anyone to do 194 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: monetary policy these days, especially when you're working with a 195 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 1: blunt instrument like one interest rate. Well, and to Paul's point, 196 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: if you're if it's supply constraints that are causing inflation. 197 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 1: You know, if if I'm paying so much more for 198 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: my GMC yukon a T four because they just can't 199 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 1: make enough, it doesn't matter if the Fed raises rates. 200 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 1: Does the Feds going to raise rates on March sixteenth 201 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 1: and on March seventeenth. We aren't going to suddenly have 202 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:49,079 Speaker 1: a big supply of semi conductors that all of a 203 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 1: sudden show up. So the car problem is going to continue. 204 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 1: And that's the issue is we bought. I mean, we've 205 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 1: had several separate issues that get rolled into one. The 206 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:04,319 Speaker 1: semiconductors issue was a result of a number of factory problems, 207 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:10,079 Speaker 1: and then the car issues, uh flowed from that. But 208 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 1: then we have other supply chain issues where we ordered 209 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 1: so many goods that they couldn't keep up with the 210 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 1: shipping of the mall. And that's slowly beginning to rationalize. 211 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: But we're not there yet. Yeah, we just had the 212 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 1: lead class go on from Bloomberg Intelligence. He covers all 213 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,199 Speaker 1: the ocean shipping companies, the railroads, the truck and companies. 214 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 1: He sees it all, and he says he consisted going 215 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:32,839 Speaker 1: to stretch into next year. You know, he kind of 216 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 1: thought it might be at mid event where we get 217 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:38,319 Speaker 1: some meaningful improvement in supply chain. But now he's pushing 218 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 1: that out even further so that I have took a 219 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 1: great Canadian Pacific investor trip through the Canadian rockies. It 220 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 1: was awesome and three day trip, a lot of fun. 221 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 1: You know, I bet written the rails what Greg Jared? Yeah, 222 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 1: I'm sure he hasn't as a whole boat, you know 223 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 1: out in the West. You know, God knows doing what, alright, 224 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 1: Michael McKeith, They you so much for joining us giving 225 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 1: an update on our federal reserve and how they're looking 226 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 1: to move this year. But it just seems like this week, Matt, 227 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 1: as we've pointed out the you know, we're really talking 228 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 1: about geopolitical issues here, we've got the market off about 229 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:20,160 Speaker 1: one point to five percent. Here, we have our e 230 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 1: t S. She wants to talk E t F S 231 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 1: dying to talk ETFs. I was gonna say, Maestro Macetratra, 232 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,719 Speaker 1: maybe has taken there's already an e t F s 233 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 1: R here E t F S arena in the house 234 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 1: right now. Um, And we were talking about an e 235 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 1: t F fund earlier, weren't we um E s H 236 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 1: hre we talking about E S H earlier? Which is 237 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:48,079 Speaker 1: um No, I think those are the sutures. No, it 238 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 1: was it was some e t F fund that somehow 239 00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 1: dealt with SPACs in a way to that's leverage on 240 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:00,439 Speaker 1: leverage there, Katie, what do you got for us? Let's ETFs. 241 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 1: We can talk about spack ets, we can talk about 242 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 1: fixed income et s because it doesn't sound exciting, but 243 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 1: there have been a ton of really interesting launches when 244 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:11,560 Speaker 1: it comes to fix income ets this week. I mean, 245 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 1: just today you had State Street and Blackstone launch and 246 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 1: e t F that will be half high yield, half 247 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 1: clos and they're trying to really appeal to the retail 248 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 1: crowd there, which caught my eye. You also have a 249 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: bunch of black black Rock alumni debuting UH seven junk 250 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: bond e t f s just today, and then earlier 251 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: this week you also had a CDs e t F debut, 252 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 1: So it's been a really fascinating week for just bond 253 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 1: ETFs in general. Speaking of leverage on leverage, Yeah, who 254 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 1: buys e t s these days? Is it retail? Is 255 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 1: it institutional? Is it hedge funds? These things? It's a 256 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: really interesting mix of both. I mean, institutional and professional 257 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 1: traders love et s because the liquidity there is so 258 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 1: much greater than you would get in buying any sort 259 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 1: of individual bond, So they use them often as liquidity sleeves. 260 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 1: But you also have a very sleeve liquidity sleeve that 261 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 1: I do too. I try to put that in stories 262 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 1: whenever I can. But I mean they do appeal to 263 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 1: retail because some of the products or some of the 264 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 1: asset classes you can get exposure to through an e 265 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 1: t F. I mean, if you're a retail trader. You're 266 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: never going to be buying, you know, Russian debt, You're 267 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 1: never going to be buying oil futures, those types of 268 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 1: asset classes that you really can't get exposure to. But 269 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 1: now you can through an e t F. You can 270 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 1: buy it on any sort of brokerage platform. So it's 271 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 1: Tony from UBS ever calls me and pitches in e 272 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 1: t F to me. That might be the end of 273 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 1: our Oh no, are you not in e t F. 274 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 1: I don't know. Yeah, I guess I can. I mean 275 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 1: that the low fees, I guess they're targeted, which is 276 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 1: pretty cool. I don't know, it just feels a little 277 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: I'd love to see h C S mark Yusco. Right, yes, 278 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 1: exactly exactly. So we were talking mark Yusco about and 279 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 1: by the way, you know how I found that I 280 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 1: couldn't remember what I had typed in, and I just 281 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 1: typed an h I S t go And it shows 282 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: you the history of all the commands that you've typed 283 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 1: in on the Bloombergs. You can scroll back. That is 284 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 1: a very that is a good another function. You know, 285 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 1: I was reading about this fund and I was so 286 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 1: mad that I didn't write about it, because it's really 287 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 1: interesting basically that UM it feels like he's pitching this 288 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 1: e t F as you can use it almost as 289 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 1: a money market fund, like just store your cash here. 290 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 1: You're probably going to get a few basis points above treasuries. 291 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: Not very exciting, but you know it should work all right, 292 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 1: So the new issue market for e t f s, 293 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 1: where are we kind of over the last twelve months? 294 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: Is it accelerating and we kind of peaked on fire? 295 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: As they say, yeah, no, you saw a record number 296 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 1: of e t f s launched last year, which is 297 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 1: interesting to me because they've all been mostly active and thematic. 298 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: But if you look at where the money is going, 299 00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 1: it's all too pretty vanilla funds. It's all SMP five 300 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: hundred index tracking funds. So you're seeing this huge surge 301 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 1: in issuance. But I mean, those new funds are attracting 302 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: very little of the actual money that's flowing into the 303 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 1: e t F market, which is largely just dominated by 304 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 1: Vanguard and black Rock UM and Vanguard has been the 305 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,439 Speaker 1: boss of e t s really since their inceptions. Right, 306 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: they own they own this market. They well, okay, this 307 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 1: is the storyline that you have to watch very closely. 308 00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 1: Black or Vanguard's share of the E t F market 309 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 1: has grown every single year for twenty years straight. Black 310 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 1: Rock is still your incumbent. I think they control about 311 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 1: thirty four percent of all U S E t F assets, 312 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:41,880 Speaker 1: Vanguards at twenty nine per cent, So that flippening it's 313 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 1: going to happen one day. Maybe it's not this year. 314 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 1: But I also just think because of you know, the 315 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 1: uh the legend of Jack Bogel and to me, E 316 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 1: t F s fits so well with that passive investing legend. 317 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 1: But of course they probably have active investing e t 318 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 1: f s there as well. They do, and Vanguard will 319 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 1: be quick to tell you that they do have active ETFs. 320 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: But if you look at their AD two product and 321 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 1: they just have a T two products, which is also 322 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 1: mind blowing, it's mostly passive. That's where all the money is. 323 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 1: And I space E t F gets all the Bloomberg 324 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 1: News written stuff on E t F and E t 325 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 1: F E t F and b I E t f 326 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 1: s to get the research there. All right, let's talk 327 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 1: global oil. Brent crude ninety cents. We were on I 328 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 1: guess we still are on a one watch. I'm hearing 329 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: some hundred dollar numbers coming out of Wall Street. But 330 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: when we want to talk oil or commodities, pork bellies, crypto, 331 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:45,920 Speaker 1: we go to Mike McLane. He's from Bloomberg Intelligence Commodities. Uh. Analysts, 332 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:49,879 Speaker 1: they're uh, Mike, You're in a Bloomberg Interactive broker studio. 333 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 1: He's here, Folks. Usually is down in Miami Beach, kicking 334 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 1: back at the pool with a cocktail with an umbrella 335 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:56,680 Speaker 1: in it, but he is here in New York working 336 00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 1: this week. Mike, what do you make a crude oil? Here? 337 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 1: Are going to see that handle? I think it's part 338 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 1: of the process that it did in two thousand and eight. 339 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,879 Speaker 1: Elevator escalator up, elevator down. So right now we're in 340 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,159 Speaker 1: that upstage. Today is not so great, but it's factoring 341 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 1: a pretty significant armed conflict between you know, in Europe 342 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 1: with a large exporter of crudel and a large exporter 343 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:21,120 Speaker 1: of grains. To me, that's otherwise, once we get through 344 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 1: this period, it happens or not, crudel is going back 345 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:27,239 Speaker 1: to fifty and that is are below and because two 346 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 1: and two thousand and eight it's peaked at one and 347 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:33,080 Speaker 1: then dropped the forty um the next year, and then 348 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 1: what happened was that we went up to a hundred 349 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 1: for till two thousand eleven. Then the whole U s 350 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 1: Shell revolution happened, oil sands in Canada. That's happening again. Now. 351 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,680 Speaker 1: The differences Matt loves is the evs are really kicking in. 352 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 1: That's it's and our consumption in North America peaked in 353 00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 1: two thousand eighteen, and so it's starting to head lower. 354 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 1: So also the key thing is war. Okay, war keeps 355 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:55,639 Speaker 1: it elevated and the shorter term, but the big picture 356 00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,120 Speaker 1: is higher prices bring up more supply, and it's worse 357 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 1: this time. So here's what that part. At that part, 358 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: I don't we don't see happening yet, right. We don't 359 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 1: see the shale guys recounts pulling more oil out of 360 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 1: the ground. We don't see Texas pulling the trigger. They 361 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 1: just don't seem to be done at Why why lagging? 362 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 1: So what are we doing right now? We're the reciprocal 363 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 1: negative prices. We're going to do the exact opposite within 364 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 1: the next year. Might be three months high prices now 365 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,159 Speaker 1: back to the more enduring trend. So let's give you 366 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:26,440 Speaker 1: this fact. Crude picked at one in July m July 367 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 1: two eight. If it would catch up to pp i'd 368 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 1: be two. So that's a bear market that's bouncing within 369 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:34,440 Speaker 1: a range. So, yes, it's a lot of fear, but 370 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 1: this is just the facts of the market. If you can, 371 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 1: you can create more of it. We use less of it. 372 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 1: And you know, I came from a corn melt background. 373 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 1: Twelve percent of our gasoline is from ethanol, which I 374 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 1: know you love. I'm against that. Well, I'm not against 375 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,399 Speaker 1: it if you don't care about your motor, you know, 376 00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 1: but it's not good. I don't want to put that 377 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,360 Speaker 1: in my I will drive the extra mile to get 378 00:20:55,520 --> 00:21:00,680 Speaker 1: pure gasoline. Really, I don't want And yes you do, 379 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 1: I don't care, do I you don't care? I don't care. No, alright, 380 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 1: so alright. So but supply and demand here OPEC has 381 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:14,640 Speaker 1: remained pretty disciplined. Is that something you expect to continue it? Does? 382 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,439 Speaker 1: Does OPEC really have that much spare capacity? Well, one 383 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 1: of the things we've been hearing from the guests we 384 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 1: bring on is okay, Saudi does, and you can see 385 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 1: it with OPEC go. It's a really cool chart for 386 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 1: spare capacity. Um. But the guests that we have on 387 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 1: lately have been doubtful that other countries really have that 388 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 1: much spare capacity. And actually you don't see anything on 389 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:39,160 Speaker 1: OPEC go besides Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Don't underestimate 390 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 1: how prices bring on supply and commodities used to have hair. 391 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 1: It's just exactly, it's just so there, detaining to hear 392 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:48,880 Speaker 1: it because I remember how we were gonna have peak 393 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 1: oil ten years ago, what really peaked consumption in North America? 394 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,760 Speaker 1: So that will come the disciplines impressive. Iran could come 395 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 1: back and look at Venezuela. They have as much oils crude. 396 00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 1: At some point that comes back in higher prices bringing 397 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:00,639 Speaker 1: that on. But I think what's happy now is more 398 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 1: than macro. I think we're beginning part of the great 399 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 1: reversion of this massive period of economic fiscal, monetary stimulus. 400 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 1: And so if if we don't have the war, we 401 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 1: face the fet If we do have the war, we 402 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 1: have other issues of potential recession. But you know, the 403 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,840 Speaker 1: unique thing that's really been happening lately, I was impressed 404 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:20,920 Speaker 1: with how bitcoin has been a leading indicator. If you 405 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,159 Speaker 1: come in the morning, like today, bitcoin was heavy the 406 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,960 Speaker 1: stock market fo yeah, you see, you watch the ticker 407 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 1: and then you have those days when stock markets down 408 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: and Bitcoin starts taking up the stock market files. It's 409 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 1: amazing how this crypto has become the leading, the leading 410 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,040 Speaker 1: indicator in markets. But in the big picture, I think 411 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 1: that's what comes out ahead. So I published a piece recently, 412 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 1: as you know, lack of supply decline to supply increasing 413 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 1: adoptions not not part of most most portfolios Bitcoin, and 414 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 1: you look at crude oil, we're using less of you 415 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:48,960 Speaker 1: mentioned ethano. I drive electric and I've had it for 416 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:52,479 Speaker 1: eight years now. It's great electric. You know what, if 417 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,119 Speaker 1: any beach, I'll drive it all the way. It's I 418 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,359 Speaker 1: launed you wait, I shall be vault or a bolt 419 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 1: a volt so they don't make them any more, but 420 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:04,479 Speaker 1: it's a hybrid. Yeah, So basically I love that car. Yeah. Um, 421 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 1: I test drove that when they first came out. So 422 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,119 Speaker 1: my thing is, as I've been telling Paul and anyone 423 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,680 Speaker 1: who listened, I love the idea of electric cars. I 424 00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 1: love the acceleration of electric cars. I missed the vibrations 425 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 1: and the sound of an internal combustion engine and shifting 426 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 1: gears obviously as well. I love a good hybrid, so 427 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 1: I loved the Chevy Vault when that came out, and 428 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 1: I don't know why they don't make it anymore. I 429 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:33,840 Speaker 1: love uh. The BMW now has um an X five 430 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 1: that has an in line six, so fantastic power plant. 431 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 1: That's the power plant that made them famous. And a 432 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:47,159 Speaker 1: huge like thirty kilowatt battery, so you can drive miles 433 00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:49,880 Speaker 1: without a motor, but when you need it, you kick 434 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 1: it on. It's your enthusiasms. To me, that's profound because 435 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,159 Speaker 1: that's where it's going, and it's happening more in the 436 00:23:56,440 --> 00:24:00,040 Speaker 1: wealthier companies. But I heard last year in China to 437 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,879 Speaker 1: new auto sales were e vs. Now you mentioned hybrids. 438 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 1: My mine gets ninety miles for the getting per gill 439 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: and and my brother's a mechanics. Is a cool thing 440 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,640 Speaker 1: about these is they they the engine doesn't work hard, 441 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,200 Speaker 1: they last forever because we use electric for stoff and 442 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,200 Speaker 1: go and the engine only works for the long distances 443 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,120 Speaker 1: it works. It's a good system. I wish they would 444 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,400 Speaker 1: make cars where you could easily swap out the batteries 445 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: because my concern is I buy one now or the 446 00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,120 Speaker 1: thirty kilowatt battery and in ten years from now there's 447 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 1: a five kilowatt battery and the same size. All right, 448 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,440 Speaker 1: Mike McLoone, thank you so much. We appreciate it. We 449 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,879 Speaker 1: didn't get to talk pork bellies. We got tripped up 450 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 1: by cryptos and concentrated orange. Will do bellies next time, 451 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:40,879 Speaker 1: I guarantee it. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 452 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,440 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts 453 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 454 00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller on ball swheey. I'm on 455 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You can always 456 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:57,680 Speaker 1: catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio