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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts. If you are even remotely

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Speaker 1: a savage, you'll run these people over for a second.

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Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel. I'm

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Speaker 2: your host Brendan glass Sheen, joined by Sean Zeril and

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Speaker 2: Billy Ward. In this episode, we're breaking down UFC on

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Speaker 2: ABC this weekend.

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Speaker 3: From the Vistar Veterans Memorial Arena.

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Speaker 2: In Jacksonville, Florida. Five fights on the main card, nine prelims.

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Speaker 2: We dive into everything on the pod. We look at underdogs,

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Speaker 2: props and more. We finished with best bets. We'll start

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Speaker 2: with the main event, of course, looking at the fight. Zerillo,

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Speaker 2: as I normally ask you, how would you like to

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Speaker 2: bet the Well, first an analysis of the fight, and

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Speaker 2: then how would you like to bet it?

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Speaker 3: Please?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, really good fight between Eliotporri and Josh Emmett. Should

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Speaker 4: mention off of that. I might be a little biased,

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Speaker 4: but there's three or four guys in the UFC, three

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Speaker 4: or four male fighters in the UFC who I think

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Speaker 4: pretty confidently will fight for a belt one day and

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Speaker 4: also where a UFC belt one day. Eli Topori is

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Speaker 4: one of them. The other three Amzat Shamayav bo Nicol,

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Speaker 4: and Shavcott Rockmanoff. Unfortunately, the latter three may end up

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Speaker 4: having to fight each other at some point. So that's

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Speaker 4: why I hedge a little bit by saying I'm pretty

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Speaker 4: confident all of them will hold a belt one day.

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Speaker 4: But the dynamic there was Shavcot, bo Nicol, and Hamzat

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Speaker 4: potentially all fighting. Maybe it's been await at some point

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Speaker 4: I think makes that really interesting. But going back to

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Speaker 4: this featherweight matchup, how I view Taporia. First off, he's

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Speaker 4: twelve thirteen years younger than Josh Emmett. Emmett also was

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Speaker 4: dealing with some injuries. In that last fight against Yira

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Speaker 4: Rodriguez was finished via submission, which was a bit unexpected considering, yeah,

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Speaker 4: You're tends to knock people out. Showed some pretty slick

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Speaker 4: submission skills, but he beat them it up. Emmett looked

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Speaker 4: kind of slow, a bit aged. I mean, he is

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Speaker 4: thirty nine, and when you lose fractions of speed at

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Speaker 4: the lower weight classes, as we've discussed before, weight classes

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Speaker 4: honestly below one seventy or even one seventy and below,

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Speaker 4: we've seen the data with regards to champions over the

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Speaker 4: age of thirty five and how they perform in title fights,

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Speaker 4: and being thirty nine years old at featherweight is a detriment,

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Speaker 4: so Tepuer should be faster, should be more athletic. Josh

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Speaker 4: Emmett hits extremely hard and he tends to land on everybody.

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Speaker 4: He is the most knockdowns in featherweight history. He has

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Speaker 4: eleven knockdowns and he's put people out cold. And Tupuria

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Speaker 4: has been wabbled in the past, gotten a firefight with

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Speaker 4: Jai Herbert, wobbled by a head kick, nearly finished, ended

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Speaker 4: up rallying that fight. Tiporia is the better fighter, He's

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Speaker 4: more skilled, he has the grappling upside here, but Emmett

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Speaker 4: hits extremely hard. We've seen Tiporia get hurt in the past,

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Speaker 4: and Emmett is the better wrestler, so he should be

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Speaker 4: able to counter wrestle, keep things on the feet. I

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Speaker 4: would expect it at least early. But if this fight

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Speaker 4: hits the mat, I think Timporia is actually going to

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Speaker 4: finish him pretty quickly with this submission, which is why

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Speaker 4: you see this underjuiced so aggressively. In terms of how

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Speaker 4: I want to bet it. If I'm playing the Emmett side,

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Speaker 4: Emmett by knockout plus four seventy prefer to his money line.

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Speaker 4: He's going to be landing the type of shots he

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Speaker 4: needs the land I would expect him to be able

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Speaker 4: to put Taporia out Emmett round one, twelve to one

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Speaker 4: also interesting for the same reasons. His effectiveness should wan

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Speaker 4: the longer the fight goes. He should carry that power butt.

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Speaker 4: I think his highest likelihood is finishing it in the

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Speaker 4: first round. Concerning to Poria, did get wobbled in that

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Speaker 4: Jai Herbert fight. He actually, though, has a pretty methodical

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Speaker 4: approach and good process. He doesn't always rush in. You

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Speaker 4: saw the way he handled Ryan Hall, taking him to

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Speaker 4: the end of the first round before finishing him, the

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Speaker 4: way he sort of dismantled, beat up and then submitted

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Speaker 4: Bryce Mitchell. He's pretty measured and I don't expect him

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Speaker 4: to look for the finish right away, especially in a

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Speaker 4: five round fight. Never been in a five round fight before.

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Speaker 4: Did show slight cardio concerns in his UFC debut where

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Speaker 4: he came in on short notice, so going to be

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Speaker 4: I would say relatively cautious early, but I would expect

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Speaker 4: him to look for his openings and then eventually progress

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Speaker 4: and finish Emmett to Pury inside the distance to Juice.

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Speaker 4: For my laking, I made it about minus two thirty.

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Speaker 4: You could bet it at minus two to fifty. Would

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Speaker 4: not play that. I mentioned the Emmett props the way

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Speaker 4: I played to Puria. I think his first round plot

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Speaker 4: prop is de Juice getting it at plus one fifty

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Speaker 4: wherever it is, it's too low.

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Speaker 5: But to Paria a round two plus four.

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Speaker 4: Seventy, round three ten to one, I think those are

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Speaker 4: better options, kind of with the way I see the

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Speaker 4: pace playing out, him taking it cautious, feeling out the

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Speaker 4: process for the first couple of minutes, and then getting

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Speaker 4: a bit more aggressive in his pursuit of Emmitts so

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Speaker 4: to Pouria round two, round three, sprinkling a little bit

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Speaker 4: of both, and then I'll probably play his money line

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Speaker 4: in parlays as well.

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Speaker 5: Bitch a gen.

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Speaker 4: But you know, the guys who I view as future champions,

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Speaker 4: I'm going to find ways to bet them until they

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Speaker 4: have that belt around their waist. The guys who I

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Speaker 4: think are fraudulent, who may be viewed as title challengers,

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna find ways to fade them on their potentials.

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Speaker 4: Sent up the ranking so just another one of those,

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Speaker 4: you know, general MMA batting strategy type things. I'm going

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Speaker 4: to hold. If I think you're a champion, I'm going

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Speaker 4: to keep betting you. I don't really care what the

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Speaker 4: moneylong looks like. I'm not going to go and lay

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Speaker 4: minus three fifty straight onto Purio, but I'll probably have

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Speaker 4: Action tied to some you know MLB favorites or other

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Speaker 4: things that catch my eye on Saturday.

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Speaker 2: All right, nice tease for the baseball content, which, by

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Speaker 2: the way, you can catch these guys in the Action app.

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Speaker 2: With Billy Wards got the your fee and nerfee. I

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Speaker 2: had to think about how to pronounce your feet. But

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Speaker 2: because often people bet neurfi's anyway, Billy Ward's got his

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Speaker 2: luck ratings up at Action network dot Com. He breaks

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Speaker 2: down the card and evaluates if the line is.

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Speaker 3: Fair or he sees value elsewhere.

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Speaker 2: So Billy, with Zilla's analysis in mind, what are you

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Speaker 2: doing for in Tapouria?

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Speaker 5: Yeah? You know, I said it in the luck ratings.

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Speaker 6: I wouldn't be surprised if this one moved a little

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Speaker 6: bit more towards Tapuria since Monday, and it has like

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Speaker 6: twenty or thirty cents. Nothing crazy. I think we see

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Speaker 6: that a lot with heavy money line favorites, where just

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Speaker 6: the sharp money kind of comes in late and pushes

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Speaker 6: the side up a little bit. But I did want

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Speaker 6: to crack Sean on something here. Josh Emmitt is only

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Speaker 6: thirty eight. Let's give the man a break. He's not

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Speaker 6: quite thirty nine yet. But the thesis of that is

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Speaker 6: still very much true that he's pretty old for the division.

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Speaker 6: Hasn't looked great lately, which isn't a good sign. You know,

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Speaker 6: Sean mentioned him having an injury coming into the last fight.

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Speaker 6: Sometimes we use that as an excuse or expect a

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Speaker 6: fighter to get better, but it was only four months ago,

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Speaker 6: so if he had anything too serious, I don't think

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Speaker 6: he's going to be one hundred percent here. The only

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Speaker 6: real angle I see, you know, I'm not betting this

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Speaker 6: one pre fight. Mostly agree with Shawn's analysis. The only

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Speaker 6: angle I see is perhaps I'm at live bet after

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Speaker 6: two or three rounds. As we saw. You know, Topuri

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Speaker 6: has never been in a five round fight. His only

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Speaker 6: fight that ever went to a decision was his UFC debut,

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Speaker 6: and he did lose the third round on all.

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Speaker 5: Three judges scorecards.

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Speaker 6: It was short notice, so I'm not so much denigrating

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Speaker 6: his cardio here, but sometimes guys like that they don't

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Speaker 6: really have a plan for when they don't finish. You,

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Speaker 6: you know, he's finished twelve or thirteen fights, everyone kind

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Speaker 6: of folds when he hits Summer submits them.

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Speaker 5: What happens if that doesn't work?

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Speaker 6: You know, the power, as Sean pointed out, is still

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Speaker 6: an issue in the later rounds. While it might not

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Speaker 6: be quite there for Emmitt, can he land one or

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Speaker 6: two shots in the fourth or fifth round against the

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Speaker 6: tired Tpuria? Probably, And obviously you know, with the live betting,

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Speaker 6: we don't have to take the risk of Tipuria just

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Speaker 6: starting him right away. So if this one gets real ridiculous,

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Speaker 6: you know, I'm at plus five hundred, plus a thousand

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Speaker 6: whatever after a couple bad rounds, I'll probably be going

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Speaker 6: with that. But from a pre fight side, if you

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Speaker 6: weren't going to take Topuriria at the lighter money line

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Speaker 6: odds earlier in the week, you certainly wouldn't.

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Speaker 2: Now, Ziol you can take Emmett the thirty eight year old,

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Speaker 2: and then Adam Wainwright in London at plus one ten

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Speaker 2: the forty one year old Adam Waynwright and it's not

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Speaker 2: a favorite, but you can go two old guys.

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Speaker 4: Maybe maybe an adjusted over for that London series where

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Speaker 4: we're gonna get a bazillion runs. The two games that

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Speaker 4: we played there a couple of years ago, I believe

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Speaker 4: the average final score finished at about twenty runs combined.

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Speaker 4: So maybe an adjusted total with a tempuriu money line

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Speaker 4: to bet against the old guys here on Saturday.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, take take the over on the runs in London,

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Speaker 2: but you might want to lean under in the rounds,

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Speaker 2: but it makes the juice on the under rounds in

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Speaker 2: this fight not too bad if you take the over

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Speaker 2: in the London series to make it, you.

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Speaker 4: Know, And it's like the dynamic of the fight I

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Speaker 4: think is what's really interesting too with in terms of

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Speaker 4: Howling playing the round props. I know Dan Stupper MMA editor,

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Speaker 4: he's playing the fight to start round two. I believe

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Speaker 4: at minus one fifty, that's a bet I considered making.

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Speaker 4: You know, I think the slowest pace is going to

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Speaker 4: come in the early feeling out process, and it's kind

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Speaker 4: of up to to Perier to dictate. We've seen Emmett

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Speaker 4: and these other five round fights with Calvin Cator He's

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Speaker 4: kind of content to stay on the outside, play that

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Speaker 4: range kickboxing match, land the more impactful shots in each round,

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Speaker 4: and doesn't need to get knockouts to win. You know,

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Speaker 4: he gets knocked down as to secure rounds, or he

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Speaker 4: lands the more impactful punches. But yeah, I think it's

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Speaker 4: up to to Puria. You know the type of pace

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Speaker 4: that we're going to see in this fight, which is

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Speaker 4: why I'm hesitant to play the unders the under two

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Speaker 4: and a half, which.

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Speaker 5: Is juiced up.

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Speaker 4: I'd rather take long shot prop odds in this fight.

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Speaker 4: There's a lot of bets here that are really juiced up.

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Speaker 4: So Emmett knockout plus four seventy eight to Puarrier, round two,

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Speaker 4: round three plus four one hundred plus one thousand. I

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Speaker 4: think those are the best approaches. It's a it's a

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Speaker 4: well lined fight, but something that I think you could

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Speaker 4: justify taking big plus money stabs at all.

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Speaker 2: Right, apologies for the folks that aren't baseball people. We

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Speaker 2: could we meeting me to a degree. I mean, Zerrilla

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Speaker 2: started it, but we couldn't help ourselves. My fall blayed

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Speaker 2: me all right, onto underdogs that we like on the card.

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Speaker 2: Fourteen fights, as we mentioned, five on the May nine

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Speaker 2: prelimbs Zerrilla Favorite Dog.

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Speaker 3: Is this a good card for underdogs generally speaking?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I love this card for underdogs and I love

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Speaker 4: this card for unders finish props. I think this is

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Speaker 4: going to be a violent card and I think there's

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Speaker 4: some good plus money opportunities on here. I'm actually gonna

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Speaker 4: get out two favorite underdogs in this card because my

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Speaker 4: best bet is also an underdog. But these are the

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Speaker 4: two other underdogs that I'm playing, the first being David

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Speaker 4: o'ama against Gabriel Santos. David O'ama's last fight against State

218
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Speaker 4: Lam where we talked about Nate Lamware the last time

219
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Speaker 4: I was on the pod for the pay per view

220
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Speaker 4: Onama basically knocked him out twice in the first six

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Speaker 4: minutes and then gassed himself out trying to finish. And

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Speaker 4: that is a pretty common outcome when the finish doesn't occur.

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Speaker 4: The guy who over pursues the finish, his cardio falls

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Speaker 4: off of a cliff. We've seen decent cardio from Anama

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Speaker 4: and other fights. I think he just fully Cardio dumped there,

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Speaker 4: and if that was a knockout, you know, if the

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Speaker 4: fight had just ended there and some referees would have

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Speaker 4: stopped it. We've seen Nate lamb Ware in similar positions

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Speaker 4: get stopped in the past, So if that had been

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Speaker 4: a knockout, what is the line here against Gabriel Santos.

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Speaker 4: It's certainly not plus two hundred. I think Onama hits harder.

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Speaker 4: He's got a four inch reach advantage. Yes, Santos has

233
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Speaker 4: the grappling up side, but that's baked into the line.

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Speaker 4: He's the favorite because he has the grappling up side.

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Speaker 4: If this stays on the feet for extended stretches, it's

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Speaker 4: gonna be extremely close. It's probably gonna look like a

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Speaker 4: pick him fight. Happy to take Onama two to one,

238
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Speaker 4: especially with the reach advantage. I think he's the better striker,

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Speaker 4: and he certainly hits harder damage prioritize damage. With a

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Speaker 4: crowd there too, they're gonna be cheering for Onama. So

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Speaker 4: give me David Onama two to one. Think this would

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Speaker 4: be closer to a pick him had he won that

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Speaker 4: fight against land where and then a similar story with

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Speaker 4: Kletzon Rodriguez going, you know, second fight of the card

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Speaker 4: against t Seri Tyre.

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Speaker 5: He did miss wake.

247
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Speaker 4: Kletson also missed weight in his last fight, so keep

248
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Speaker 4: that in mind. Cardio third round may not be the

249
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Speaker 4: best in terms of lasting throughout the fight, but I

250
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Speaker 4: think he's got the striking advantage here.

251
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Speaker 3: I think is a.

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Speaker 4: Clear power advantage here against Tatsuro Tyra. Tyra is a

253
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Speaker 4: master of the back take, and when he wins, it's

254
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Speaker 4: going to look fairly dominant because he's just gonna hold

255
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Speaker 4: his opponents in one position or finish them basically for

256
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Speaker 4: the entire fight. But if Rodriguez is able to escape

257
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Speaker 4: out of that position, and we talked about a similar

258
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Speaker 4: dynamic with Raul Rosas Junior taking the back right, you know,

259
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Speaker 4: going into that fight, and is his opponent could be

260
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Speaker 4: able to escape that position, Well he was and Christian

261
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Speaker 4: Rodriguez ended up dominating the fight.

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Speaker 5: I think a very similar dynamic here.

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Speaker 4: If Kletson is able to avoid the body triangle, I

264
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Speaker 4: think he's going to be extremely competitive, if not dominate,

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Speaker 4: especially on the feet. He's got a big power advantage.

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Speaker 4: He reminds me kind of a young Douglas Silva Dee Andrage.

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Speaker 4: It's all aggression and craziness and wild explosive techniques. But

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Speaker 4: that's the kind of stuff that is relatively friendly to judges.

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Speaker 4: And again I'm not sure if this is in Billy's

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Speaker 4: luck ratings piece. I'm curious to hear if it is.

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Speaker 4: But how to split decision loss to CJ. Bergara was

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Speaker 4: a live favorite at the end of the fight, was

273
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Speaker 4: a live favorite throughout the fight. That split loss. If

274
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Speaker 4: you flip it back to a win, what is the

275
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Speaker 4: line here? Probably closer to a pick them than two

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Speaker 4: to one. So clenchon Rodriguez at plus two twenty five

277
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Speaker 4: against Tatsiro Tira David o'nama about plus one ninety five,

278
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Speaker 4: both guys who I think have a grappling deficiency relative

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Speaker 4: to their opponents, but extreme power upside and should have

280
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Speaker 4: better optics on the feet.

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Speaker 2: Good thoughts or Billy, I know Zerlo kind of mentioned those.

282
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Speaker 2: I don't think you have those in your piece, but

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Speaker 2: any quick thoughts.

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Speaker 6: No, didn't touch on those. One thing I do want

285
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Speaker 6: to mention, based on Shohn's analysis with Rodriguez missing weight,

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Speaker 6: A lot of states where if you miss weight, that's

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Speaker 6: just it. The first time you weigh in, that's your

288
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Speaker 6: official Wait, you pay your fine, or the fight's canceled

289
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Speaker 6: or whatever's going to happen.

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Speaker 5: Happen.

291
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Speaker 6: That is not the case in Florida. Florida, like some

292
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Speaker 6: other places, allows you either one or two hour wait

293
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Speaker 6: to go back and try to continue to cut weight,

294
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Speaker 6: which I think that's a huge disadvantage for the fighter

295
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Speaker 6: that has to do so, especially a fighter like Rodriguez

296
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Speaker 6: who missed weight in his last fight and could be

297
00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:11,800
Speaker 6: in danger of losing his job. He's probably gonna really

298
00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,600
Speaker 6: work to get that extra weight off, but that's really

299
00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:16,600
Speaker 6: tough because his opponent is back there with his peda

300
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Speaker 6: light and his gatorade and his pasta and whatever he's eating,

301
00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:22,160
Speaker 6: while Rodriguez is still sitting in asana sweating out more

302
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Speaker 6: for another hour or two. Which also plays in to

303
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Speaker 6: my favorite underdog, which is Jack Jenkins. He's fighting Jamal Emmers.

304
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Speaker 6: Emmer's another guy that missed weight but chose to take

305
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Speaker 6: the option of continuing to try to cut rather than

306
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Speaker 6: forfeit the penalty right away. That was one I did cover.

307
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Speaker 6: I didn't cover it my luck rankings. I made the

308
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Speaker 6: tweet saying I thought we got some free CLV on

309
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Speaker 6: Jack Jenkins. I could not have been more wrong. This

310
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Speaker 6: one went the exact opposite direction. But I'm honestly surprised.

311
00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:51,680
Speaker 6: You know Jack Jenkins, short, little stocky featherweight from Australia,

312
00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,960
Speaker 6: used to play rugby, great cardio, great output, you know,

313
00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:58,440
Speaker 6: huge shades of Alexander Volkanovski here, and he's fighting the tall,

314
00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:01,520
Speaker 6: skinny guy and Emers both have a good wrestling background

315
00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:04,000
Speaker 6: and Ambers has one hundred percent take down defense in

316
00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,480
Speaker 6: the UFC, but he was fighting straight grapplers who just

317
00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:08,480
Speaker 6: telegraphed their shots and made it obvious what they were

318
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Speaker 6: trying to do. Jenkins has some of the best transitions

319
00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:14,000
Speaker 6: I've ever seen between striking and grappling. When his opponent

320
00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,040
Speaker 6: steps in with a shot, he changes levels, disguises it

321
00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:19,280
Speaker 6: like a body punch, puts you on your back, does

322
00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:21,920
Speaker 6: really good work controlling it. We've also got a huge

323
00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,480
Speaker 6: cardio advantage there, Like he just has tremendous output down

324
00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,520
Speaker 6: the stretch of the fight. But the biggest thing is

325
00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,600
Speaker 6: Emer's got his knee absolutely shredded by Pat Sabatini a

326
00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:33,280
Speaker 6: couple fights ago, and he won his fight coming back

327
00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:35,400
Speaker 6: from that after eighteen months, but did not look like

328
00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:37,760
Speaker 6: the same kind of athlete, like, rather than being snappy

329
00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:39,720
Speaker 6: and bouncing in and out of range, he's kind of

330
00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:41,760
Speaker 6: pawing on stuff. He doesn't quite have that speed in

331
00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:44,760
Speaker 6: that pop, and you just never know what a fighter

332
00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:46,160
Speaker 6: like that is he ever going to recover. Is he

333
00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:48,640
Speaker 6: ever going to get that athleticism back? Which makes it

334
00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:50,800
Speaker 6: really tough for a guy like Jenkins who's bouncing in

335
00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:54,000
Speaker 6: and out, huge output, you know, fast feet, moving all

336
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:57,880
Speaker 6: over the place, bigger cage two. So the injury factor

337
00:15:57,960 --> 00:15:59,880
Speaker 6: plus the fact that we have the weight miss and

338
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,280
Speaker 6: I'm probably back there, you know, still trying to sweat

339
00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:04,960
Speaker 6: while Jenkins was recovering, That's more than enough for me.

340
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,600
Speaker 6: On Jenkins. I was happy to take him at plus

341
00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:09,720
Speaker 6: one forty earlier in the week, very excited at the

342
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:11,000
Speaker 6: plus one eighty we can get now.

343
00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:12,960
Speaker 4: I just want to mention I don't have action on

344
00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,240
Speaker 4: this fight, but Jamal Emmers was my best bet in

345
00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,120
Speaker 4: his last fight against Cussaye Askobov. He won that fight

346
00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,200
Speaker 4: as a plus one six the underdog. He is exactly

347
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:22,640
Speaker 4: the type of guy you bet is a plus one

348
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,480
Speaker 4: sixty to plus two hundred underdog, and exactly the type

349
00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:28,400
Speaker 4: of guy you'd ever touch as a minus two hundred favorite.

350
00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:30,800
Speaker 4: There's plenty of guys like that in the UFC Jamal

351
00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:33,600
Speaker 4: Emmers got his knee shredded because he made a horrible

352
00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:36,000
Speaker 4: fight IQ decision and went to the ground with a

353
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:38,520
Speaker 4: grappler who he was beating up on the feet. He

354
00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:42,560
Speaker 4: consistently makes bad decisions and fights. You cannot lay minus

355
00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:45,680
Speaker 4: two ten on Jamal Emers. He will screw you when

356
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:47,240
Speaker 4: you do it. You bet him as an underdog, not

357
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:48,000
Speaker 4: as a favorite.

358
00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:50,520
Speaker 6: I'm glad you mentioned the fight IQ before we move on.

359
00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,000
Speaker 6: Not only did he go to the ground with Pat Sabatini,

360
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,440
Speaker 6: a mistake in and of itself, but he was trying

361
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,720
Speaker 6: to ankle lock or foot lock Sabatini while Salabatini had

362
00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,240
Speaker 6: a heel hook. So for my other grapplers out there,

363
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:03,720
Speaker 6: and ankle lock kind of hurts, but it's probably not

364
00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:05,960
Speaker 6: gonna like ruin your day or damage you that much.

365
00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:08,679
Speaker 6: In A heel hook, if properly applied, can keep you

366
00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:10,840
Speaker 6: out of action for eighteen months. So that's just never

367
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:12,480
Speaker 6: a game, you know. It's it's bringing a knife to

368
00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,399
Speaker 6: a gunfight, which is what he tried to do with

369
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:16,840
Speaker 6: one of the best grapplers in the division, paid for

370
00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:18,879
Speaker 6: it and might never be the same fighter again. So

371
00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:21,640
Speaker 6: I'm going to bet against him until I'm proven wrong

372
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:22,840
Speaker 6: about his athleticism.

373
00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:24,280
Speaker 5: No, I agree.

374
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:26,480
Speaker 4: I didn't think he looked like his previous, you know,

375
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,760
Speaker 4: explosive self in that last fight. So yeah, probably on

376
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,359
Speaker 4: paper has the better skills here, and you could justify

377
00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:35,840
Speaker 4: the favoritism. But with the weight miss, etc. Maybe Jenkins

378
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:37,800
Speaker 4: live bet. You know, that's probably something. I'm going to

379
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,960
Speaker 4: target Jenkins live after round one, especially after that weight mess.

380
00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,080
Speaker 6: And I know we're belaboring this one a bit long,

381
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:46,720
Speaker 6: but better skills so far. Jenkins He's not that young.

382
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:49,320
Speaker 6: I think he's thirty, but like Volkanovsky, he was a

383
00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:52,280
Speaker 6: professional rugby player into his twenties, so like his skills

384
00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,200
Speaker 6: could and should still be improving. Obviously, we don't want

385
00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:56,919
Speaker 6: to bet too hard on a guy getting better, but

386
00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,199
Speaker 6: it's a safer bet for a guy who's, you know,

387
00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:01,240
Speaker 6: somewhat new to the sport.

388
00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,840
Speaker 3: Jack Jenkins just turned thirty in March. There you go.

389
00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:08,640
Speaker 2: More analysis of Jenkins again in the written portion of

390
00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:13,320
Speaker 2: our breakdown over at Action Network Billy Ward's luck ratings

391
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 2: for UFC down in Jacksonville. Onto the Fight of the Night,

392
00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,760
Speaker 2: you got Trevor Peak taking on machine gun Marascal that's

393
00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:23,480
Speaker 2: the fight we're looking at for the fight of the night.

394
00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:25,240
Speaker 3: It's very tight.

395
00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:28,240
Speaker 2: Line Zaillo right now looking at FanDuel. Yeah, it's basically

396
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,280
Speaker 2: a pick them. You got Peak at my just won fourteen,

397
00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:31,920
Speaker 2: Mariscal at might just one oh six.

398
00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:33,800
Speaker 3: How do you want to bet this one?

399
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:34,200
Speaker 5: Yeah?

400
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:40,679
Speaker 4: Trevor Peak Fight week incredibly odd but exciting fighter. Trevor

401
00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,640
Speaker 4: Peak fights like he's in a movie about MMA. It's

402
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 4: the best way I describe it. He fights like you

403
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,080
Speaker 4: told an actor you're gonna be an MMA superstar. We're

404
00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 4: not going to give you any training. What do you

405
00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:57,400
Speaker 4: think you should do? The running tomahawk fist incredible, never

406
00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:02,879
Speaker 4: seen that in an octagon before, and that unorthodox nature

407
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:07,560
Speaker 4: does make him difficult to prepare for now. Chepe I

408
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,320
Speaker 4: think is the better fighter. I think that's almost indisputable

409
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 4: actually that he's the more skilled MMA fighter when eleven.

410
00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:14,720
Speaker 5: To zero is an amateur.

411
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:19,200
Speaker 4: Has arguably the best strength of schedule I've ever seen

412
00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:21,919
Speaker 4: for a guy coming in off the regional scene. I

413
00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:26,680
Speaker 4: mean he's faced seven UFC veterans, has wins over multiple

414
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,760
Speaker 4: but Gregor Gillespie, Bryce Mitchell, Pat Sabattini, us Off, Salal,

415
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:31,959
Speaker 4: Steve Garcia, Jo Anderson Brito.

416
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 5: All legit UFC.

417
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,800
Speaker 4: Fighters, not like low level when you know zero to

418
00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 4: three and dumped from the UFC. All guys who have

419
00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:45,640
Speaker 4: multiple wins. I believe in the UFC. But he's moving

420
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,000
Speaker 4: up from one forty five, taking this fight on short

421
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:51,520
Speaker 4: notice against the guy in Trevor Peak, who is very

422
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 4: much killer be killed, but also has the hardware to

423
00:19:54,320 --> 00:20:00,320
Speaker 4: back it. He hits harder, has more durability. Chepe either

424
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 4: needs to play the outside kickboxing game and out point

425
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 4: him over fifteen minutes, or probably find a way to

426
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,360
Speaker 4: either club him, sub him, or grapple and submit him.

427
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:12,320
Speaker 4: Do not expect that from a fighter whose nickname is

428
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 4: machine Gun. Expect him to jump right into the fire

429
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:17,760
Speaker 4: exchange and I think somebody falls pretty quickly. So the

430
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 4: under one and a half super juiced up here at

431
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,199
Speaker 4: minus one seventy five, I think you could justify it

432
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 4: given the pace that I expect to see, the short

433
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 4: notice nature of Chepe coming in here, probably going to

434
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 4: look for the kill early, and Trevor Peak this is

435
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,240
Speaker 4: his first time, I believe, fighting in front of a

436
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,360
Speaker 4: crowd for the UFC. I think you know he won

437
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,439
Speaker 4: on Contender series and then his last fight I believe

438
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 4: was also in the apex. Was it not so going

439
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 4: to be looking for a kill as well? Yeah, both

440
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,040
Speaker 4: fights for Peak were in the Apex, So yeah, I

441
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,640
Speaker 4: think the crowd is gonna force just an insane pace here,

442
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:56,320
Speaker 4: and given the lack of defense on Peak side, the

443
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 4: lack of care, it's just it's so likely that this

444
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:00,199
Speaker 4: finishes in US.

445
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:01,400
Speaker 5: You know, they both.

446
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,359
Speaker 4: Show zombie chints for seven and a half minutes, and

447
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 4: that scenems unlikely. So the fight to end inside the

448
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 4: distance is super juice. But I think if it occurs,

449
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 4: it's going to occur early.

450
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,439
Speaker 3: Billy, how do you want to bet this one? Are

451
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 3: you into Trevor Peak?

452
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,440
Speaker 6: I'm not bat at Trevor Peak, allegedly, And I heard

453
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 6: this listening to or watching some tape on him his

454
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,280
Speaker 6: pro debut. Somebody said do you want to go have

455
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 6: a fight or whatever, and he was surprised to show

456
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 6: up to an arena because he thought someone meant like

457
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 6: in an alley somewhere, which tells you a lot about

458
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 6: his fighting style. He's, oh, you mean like an actual

459
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:36,640
Speaker 6: fight with gloves, not just some guys. And also eight

460
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 6: UFC fighters on Marciicall's record.

461
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 5: He also fought Carl.

462
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,399
Speaker 6: Deaton, who's oh and one in the UFC, so you

463
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 6: know it doesn't quite count, but eight of his I

464
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 6: believe nineteen pro fights came against future or past UFC contenders,

465
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 6: which is just ridiculous. But I'm actually playing it the

466
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,879
Speaker 6: other way. You can get marscool in round three or

467
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 6: by decision at plus four to ten. I also like,

468
00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 6: you know, some sgps if you have that available and

469
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 6: over low minutes to get him up to plus money.

470
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 6: If I'm marctacles Camp here, my whole plan is just

471
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 6: wait out whatever craziness and running hammer fists we're gonna

472
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,399
Speaker 6: see from Trevor Peak. Maybe try to stick him up

473
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 6: against the fence, take him down, just kind of ride

474
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 6: out that storm, because there's no way Trevor Peak can

475
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 6: do that for fifteen minutes. I was shocked that he

476
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 6: did it for five minutes, getting the finish at the

477
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 6: end of round one in his last fight. So, yeah,

478
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 6: Marcical's aggresive fighter. Yeah he's coming in on a short notice,

479
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 6: but if he has any kind of preparation for this one,

480
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 6: that should be the plan. Whether you actually execute that plan,

481
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 6: whether the excitement gets to be too much of you

482
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 6: is a different question. But the round three or decision

483
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 6: line is plus four ten, which is like prop squad

484
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,199
Speaker 6: style odds, which I'm really surprised by because I do

485
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,680
Speaker 6: think Peak is probably the side early in this one,

486
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 6: with Martsicle coming late, and if you want it a

487
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 6: little bit less juicy, you know, take it round two

488
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:53,199
Speaker 6: and beyond it plus one seventy five or so via SGP.

489
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 3: I like that as well.

490
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:56,920
Speaker 4: Good card for underdogs, good card for live betting as well.

491
00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 4: I mean Mariskol easy live bet after round one and

492
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 4: Peak fights so just maskall. I have like six live

493
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 4: bet opportunities on this card. I think it's really good

494
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 4: card for a live betting.

495
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:09,919
Speaker 6: I hesitated on the live bet on this one just

496
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 6: because it's happening at like one eastern ten am Pacific time,

497
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 6: so I don't want to you know, the main event.

498
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:15,479
Speaker 6: I go, Okay, you guys should be watching by them,

499
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 6: but they're starting pretty early.

500
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 3: Hey, good to keep in mind again to follow the

501
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 3: We'll talk about this.

502
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 2: We always talk about this, but follow these guys in

503
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 2: the Action Network app because if they're adding stuff live,

504
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,120
Speaker 2: that is when you want to be in the app when.

505
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 3: You can see when picks are being made onto the

506
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 3: prop market. Zerolo, what do you like for this week?

507
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, a lot of finished props on this card for

508
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:42,439
Speaker 4: me as well, and probably my favorite bunkst them is

509
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 4: Randy Brown and Molington Termin to end inside the distance,

510
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 4: you could get that at minus one seventy five, I've

511
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,200
Speaker 4: projected a closer minus two hundred. Urman moving down here

512
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 4: from one hundred and eighty five pounds.

513
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 5: He has a.

514
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 4: Wonky chin, so does Randy Brown. Round as a six

515
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 4: inch reach advantage, and with termin moving down from middleweight,

516
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 4: Brown should have a pretty severe speed advantage as well.

517
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:07,680
Speaker 4: I like Randy Brown quite a bit as Vider. I

518
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:09,919
Speaker 4: think Billy does too. He's just really fun to watch,

519
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 4: smooth movements, but he puts himself in danger too with

520
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 4: the way he exits the pocket. Tends to rely on

521
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:21,160
Speaker 4: head movement as opposed to actually protecting himself, so he's

522
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 4: capable of getting caught as he exits. But also termin

523
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 4: and Brown both are very slick submission grapplers as well.

524
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,959
Speaker 4: We've seen Urman getting beat up in the past, pulling

525
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 4: a arm bar off of his back against Mishaserkanov. Brown

526
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 4: is able to club and sub people lock in things,

527
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:43,160
Speaker 4: so there's a lot of ways this fight finishes. Both

528
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 4: guys are pretty violent in terms of their style, even

529
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 4: though Brown's a bit more slick. I'd say he's the

530
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 4: better point fighter of the two. But if he's connecting

531
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,239
Speaker 4: on turnmin, I think he's going to wobble him and

532
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 4: hurt him. I think it's less likely termin clips him

533
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 4: and knocks him out, but I could certainly see a

534
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 4: submission from Termin. So finish on either side scenes extremely likely.

535
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 4: Love the fight to end inside the distance here, and

536
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,360
Speaker 4: then I'm also going to target Randy Brown five after

537
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,880
Speaker 4: round one because Terman moving down in waight going from

538
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 4: one eighty five to one seventy, he is a bit

539
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 4: chubby at middleweight.

540
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,120
Speaker 5: You know, maybe one seventy better suited for him, but.

541
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 4: Regardless, he never had the best cardio at middleweight, and

542
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 4: I don't think it's going to improve going down to

543
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,400
Speaker 4: walter weight. So fight ten inside the distance and also

544
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 4: Randy Brown live after round one. Maybe I'll consider Brown

545
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 4: inside the distance in some round robins as well.

546
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:32,679
Speaker 3: Billy, what do you got for prop? Play?

547
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 6: UFC Jacksonville real quick on Shohn's It always cracks me

548
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 6: up when a guy goes down a weight class and

549
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 6: they're like, oh cool, you know I won't be outsized

550
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 6: in this new weight class. Maybe I'll have a reach advantage,

551
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 6: and then the UFC just gives them the biggest guy

552
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 6: they can find at the lower weight class, Like, you

553
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,640
Speaker 6: might as well stay at middleweight if you're gonna fight

554
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 6: six to eleven Randy Brown.

555
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 5: He's not really that tall. But you gotta know what

556
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 5: I'm saying.

557
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 6: But uh, yeah, this is one I'm looking at, and

558
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 6: this is going to be awful. On the pronunciation, I'm

559
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 6: sorry matash Rebeccy versus lloyke ReBs Abov. This is one

560
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 6: that I wrote pretty good.

561
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 5: It was very good. It's pretty good.

562
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 3: Don't try it again, just keep going.

563
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 5: Yeah that was that.

564
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 6: We're going nicknames from here on out. But yeah, I

565
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 6: wrote up this fight at the Action Network. You can

566
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 6: see more of the technical analysis there. I went into

567
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 6: this one watching Tate fully prepared to try to pick

568
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 6: a side, and then I couldn't believe when I saw

569
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 6: the under two and a half was plus one fifty

570
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 6: or so. I think it's a little bit of sportsbooks

571
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 6: overfitting the model here because both of their UFC debuts

572
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 6: ended in a decision, but it wasn't for lack of trying. Right,

573
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 6: Both these guys come out and they just swing for

574
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 6: the fences. I don't think I saw a single jab

575
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:35,640
Speaker 6: between either of them. So if you know any boxers

576
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 6: in your life and you want to watch this fight

577
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 6: with them, it'll drive them crazy. They'll be so mad.

578
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,880
Speaker 6: And then both guys have really good wrestling. Rebeccy has

579
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 6: a lot better fight IQ in top game, like he's

580
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 6: happy to settle into a good position kind of. He

581
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 6: did a lot of the Habib thing where he lets

582
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 6: you start to get back up and then pulls you

583
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 6: back down. Radzibov just goes for takedown after takedown and

584
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 6: then tries to kill you while you're down there, which

585
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 6: usually gives you a chance to get back up. Both

586
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 6: of which I think is going to out nicely for

587
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:02,919
Speaker 6: at least one, if not both of these guys to

588
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 6: be extremely gassed. They were both able to get takedowns

589
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 6: and use that as kind of a rest in their

590
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:09,479
Speaker 6: last fight. But if either of them defends the other

591
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 6: one's takedown, somebody's cardio is gonna crack real soon here

592
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:14,880
Speaker 6: and just with how violent and how heavy they both throw,

593
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 6: I think someone ends up getting wobbled, shoots for a takedown.

594
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 6: If it's not there, gets finished. If it is there,

595
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 6: you know, I expect for Becky'll be able to get

596
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 6: back up and keep putting the pace on him, or

597
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 6: Redzebov to finish him on the ground with his aggression there.

598
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 6: So I like the Rebeccy side a little bit, but

599
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 6: not nearly as much as the unders. And Sean's pointed out,

600
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 6: just a great week for fights stend inside the distance,

601
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 6: underdog stuff like.

602
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 4: That Rebeccy live after round one, radz Abov missed weight.

603
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 4: I already thought Rebeccy had slightly better cardio and with

604
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,159
Speaker 4: the weight miss for Radzibov is certainly going to look

605
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 4: for Rebeccy live after run one. So that's I believe

606
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 4: live bet number five for me. I'll give out my

607
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 4: other two when we get the best bets. It's it's

608
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 4: a great card for live betting.

609
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 6: I'm not confident Rebeccy has better cardio and like i'd

610
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 6: bet on him to win in a marathon against Radzbov,

611
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 6: like a running marathon, but his fight and the way

612
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 6: he sticks you up against the fence and uses that

613
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 6: as a arrest when he's tired. Is just so much

614
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 6: higher than Raanjabov, who, even when dead tired, is just

615
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 6: swinging for the fences and trying to finish. And I

616
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 6: don't care how good a shape here, and you can only.

617
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 3: Do that for so long.

618
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 6: And I just love the Habib move of like let

619
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 6: you get most of the way up and suck you

620
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 6: back down while I'm resting from Rebeccy. So he's definitely

621
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 6: I think he will win.

622
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 5: The cardio war.

623
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 6: I don't necessarily think that's because he's in better shape,

624
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 6: but it doesn't really matter when we're betting on it.

625
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 5: If he's fresher, he's fresher. I'm a big fan of

626
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 5: Matt Returns in MMA.

627
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 3: Well Sorilla.

628
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 2: We have arrived at best bets, final bets. They're all

629
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 2: best bets in our eyes. But which one to you

630
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 2: stands out right now before the card goes live?

631
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 5: Yeah? Yeah, Sindrinki Moss Plust one fifty five. It is

632
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 5: my favorite bet.

633
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 4: I didn't necessarily increase my stake on it or anything,

634
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 4: because I think he's going to be a phenomenal bet

635
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 4: live After round one, I actually think he's the best

636
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 4: live bet on.

637
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 5: This card, on a card full of great live bets.

638
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 4: My final I bet, by the way Brendan Allen live

639
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 4: after round one in his fight against Bruno Silva. Just

640
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 4: want to throw that out there because I've given out

641
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 4: the rest of them. But Sadri Dumas against Cody Brundage

642
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 4: similar matchup in terms of stylistically to what Dumas faced

643
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 4: in his UFC debut against Josh Fremd, except for the

644
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 4: fact that Fremd actually has decent cardio and Cody Brundage

645
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 4: falls off a cliff after three to five minutes. Dumas

646
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 4: also has a seven inch reach advantage here. I think

647
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 4: he's more skilled everywhere aside from pure wrestling, and Brundage

648
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 4: doesn't really do a ton with his wrestling other than

649
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 4: sort of hold people down. So if he's able to

650
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 4: stay safe, survive any submission attempt from Brundage avoid getting

651
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 4: clipped early, I think Dumas takes over here in the

652
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 4: second and third rounds at a significant clip. So live

653
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 4: after round one think a great bet. You might get

654
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 4: a better line than you will get pre fight. But

655
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 4: Brundage is literally going to collapse if Dumas is still

656
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,719
Speaker 4: alive after five minutes, I think it's very likely Dumas

657
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 4: finishes him. Dumas by KO plus three to ten interest me.

658
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 4: He's got a really good gilla team, though, so I

659
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 4: could see Brundage getting tired, shooting a sloppy takedown attempt

660
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 4: and putting his head right into a choke. So it

661
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 4: would not go heavy on the knockout prop. If you play,

662
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 4: that would include that in a round robin, just take

663
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 4: you Moss by money line straight up plus one fifty five,

664
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 4: and then live after round one.

665
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 2: Billy your final bet or best bet, or a bet

666
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 2: that you're gonna make him watch too.

667
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 3: I always like that analysis or thought.

668
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 5: This is a tough one.

669
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 6: So many of the bets that I really really liked

670
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 6: fit into other categories, so I was kind of struggling

671
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 6: to here. Definitely gonna watch this one just because I

672
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 6: love both fighters. But Amanda Hebis by decision at plus

673
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 6: one oh five, I think, is this the comain event

674
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 6: or is the one right before but one of the

675
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 6: coman two of the better grapplers in the female division.

676
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 5: You know.

677
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 6: Hebus is a double black belt in judo, and jiu jitsu.

678
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 6: I think judo's the most underrated skill set for mixed

679
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 6: martial arts because unlike jiu jitsu, where you spend time

680
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 6: playing off your back, judo is all about getting on top,

681
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 6: all about holding top position, which is great for winning minutes. Right,

682
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 6: So I think she's gonna have the ability to take

683
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 6: Barbara down here. She'll probably get clipped a little bit

684
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 6: on the way in, and the money line has gotten

685
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 6: way too far here on a fighter in Hebez who

686
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,959
Speaker 6: doesn't really finish anyone, and BARBERA doesn't really get finished.

687
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 6: You know, she made it through with the torn acl

688
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 6: against Macy. Barber made it all fifteen minutes. So this

689
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 6: is one of those where if you think Kebus is

690
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 6: going to win, you might as well, at the very

691
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,959
Speaker 6: least take the round three year decision it's light juice,

692
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 6: or the decision specifically at plus money, because if she

693
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 6: wins this one, I don't see her just starting Barber early.

694
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 6: And you know, the money line is pretty heavy now, actually.

695
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 4: Kind of like rebusts by sub and I bet the

696
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 4: fight to add inside the distance as well. We've seen

697
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 4: Rebus get clipped in the past. Barber fights absolutely insane.

698
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 4: Especially in the second or third round, she really picks

699
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 4: up her pace, so I could see her getting sort

700
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 4: of aggressive, you know, attritional base stoppage, maybe late, but

701
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 4: I think Rebus's very live for a submission here. Barber

702
00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 4: gets taken down three four times in every fight she

703
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,959
Speaker 4: faces a grappler, So I think Rebos is going to have,

704
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 4: as you said, position on top, but I think she's

705
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 4: gonna have opportunities to finish as well. So maybe a

706
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 4: submission or decision line. I think a knockout's fairly unlikely,

707
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 4: but submissioner decision could be a good way to player.

708
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 4: But in a round robin, I'll probably have ReBs by

709
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 4: submission plus five hundred.

710
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 5: I could see that.

711
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 6: The one thing that kept me back from that is

712
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 6: sinsor split decision loss to Chickgan. She just came out

713
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 6: and said, like she wants to win minutes. She's realized

714
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 6: that that's a part of the game, and Barber is

715
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 6: just a competent enough grappler that unless she's totally gassed

716
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 6: in the third round, which you know, if you play

717
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 6: the three or decision line, or you know, over certain

718
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 6: minutes as GPS, there's other ways to include both of

719
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 6: those if you agree with Zerrilla's analysis.

720
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 2: All righty folks, remember this card starts in the morning

721
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 2: on Saturday at eleven thirty AM. So when Zillo puts

722
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 2: Wayne Wright and Emmett and he makes that bet that

723
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 2: I suggested early, I'm joking be up and at it

724
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 2: because well he didn't say no, so maybe he would.

725
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 2: So eleven thirty star for the PRELIMBS. Main card starts

726
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 2: at three o'clock on ABC, ESPN ABC at your coverage

727
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 2: for UFC Jacksonville and all joking aside, you can find

728
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 2: coverage from these guys as well on the Baseball Front

729
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 2: London series NURFE your fee for the weekend and also

730
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 2: any games going on tomorrow after the London game at

731
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 2: one o'clock. So for Jonzarella, Billy Warre, Brendan glass Sheen,

732
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 2: thanks for tuning in everybody to the UFC betting preview

733
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 2: here on the Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel. You

734
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 2: all have a tremendous weekend, enjoy the card, and we

735
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 2: will talk to you again next week. Action Network reminds

736
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 2: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

737
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 2: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

738
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 2: to seven at one eight hundred gambler