1 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another edition of the Odd Thoughts podcast. 2 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 1: Time Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Wis So, Joe, i 3 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: am not in the American Heartland, but I'm certainly closer 4 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:22,919 Speaker 1: to it than I was last week when I was 5 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 1: in New York. Yeah. I kind of feel like even 6 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: if you're someone's not technically in the what people think 7 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:32,840 Speaker 1: of as the heartland, as long as they're not in 8 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 1: New York City or Abu Dhabi, then you're probably closer 9 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: to it than you normally are. All right, Well, I 10 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 1: am in Naval Town, Annapolis, Maryland, where the Naval Academy is. 11 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: I've been listening to local radio and getting a good 12 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:50,480 Speaker 1: feel for some of the local issues. And every time 13 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: I come back here, I always notice a couple of 14 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 1: new things that kind of catch my attention. So what 15 00:00:57,600 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: do you learn when you step out of the bubble? 16 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:01,639 Speaker 1: All right? So, first of all, it has to be 17 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: the polarization of American politics and media. Even the local 18 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:10,400 Speaker 1: radio stations now seem to be divided between Republican and Democrats. 19 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 1: So that's pretty amazing to me. But the other thing 20 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:16,399 Speaker 1: that I always find interesting is I watched the commercials 21 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: on cable news, and there are always new trends that 22 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 1: you can find from watching the commercials. What do you 23 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 1: see on the local edge there? All? Right, So there's 24 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 1: one thing I'm really noticing that I can't remember seeing 25 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: ever before, and that is all these ads for basically 26 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: addiction treatment centers, opioid addiction treatment centers. I've seen some 27 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: ads and I know that also you get there. I 28 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 1: think there are a lot of ads for drugs that 29 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:44,680 Speaker 1: treat the side effects either of pain killers of pain 30 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: killer treatment. So it's pretty extraordinary how much this issue 31 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 1: and this crisis has sort of soaked into the media. Yeah, 32 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: so huge, huge social issue in the United States, and 33 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: such a big social issue that people are starting to 34 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: take it seriously from an economic standpoint for the very 35 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 1: first time, as you know, right. So, the issue that 36 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 1: people are talking about is whether or not opioid addiction 37 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 1: is now so pervasive in American society that it's actually 38 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:17,799 Speaker 1: having an impact on the workforce and in particular the 39 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: labor participation rate. Right because there has been this so 40 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 1: called mystery, which is that the economy has rebounded in 41 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 1: an impressive way. Many indicators are at the highest level, 42 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: well above their old pre crisis highs, but there do 43 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 1: seem to be pretty large swaths of the population that 44 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 1: have not returned to the labor market the way economists 45 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 1: would expect, and more and more people are wondering and 46 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:46,799 Speaker 1: talking about this possibility. Right that, Uh, the the addiction 47 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: issues that so many people are facing is having a 48 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:53,920 Speaker 1: real macroeconomic impact. Yeah, that's right, the workers are missing. 49 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 1: So today, in a podcast that I would describe as 50 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 1: Notes from the American Heartland, we're going to be talking 51 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 1: to Jeff Corzenik. He's the chief investment strategist over at 52 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: Fifth Third Private Bank. Fifth Third, of course, is a big, 53 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:12,120 Speaker 1: big bank for a lot of the heartland American country. 54 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 1: He's going to be talking to us not just about 55 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 1: the opioid crisis and its impact on the economy, but 56 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:23,640 Speaker 1: also how the economy is faring in general in the Midwest. 57 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 1: So it should be good looking forward to stepping outside 58 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,239 Speaker 1: of our New York Abudabi bubbles and talking about the 59 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 1: real economy anymore. All right, So let's bring on Jeff. Jeff, 60 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: thanks so much for being here. It's my pleasure. Thank you. 61 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:41,960 Speaker 1: So you're coming to us from I think he said 62 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: it was Columbus Ohio. Is that right? I am. I'm 63 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 1: speaking at the Ohio Tax Conference. It doesn't get any 64 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: more Midwest business than that for some of our listeners. 65 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 1: Maybe everyone is familiar with it, but tell us a 66 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 1: little bit about the size and scope of Fifth Third Bank, 67 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: It's geographical footprint and the type of customers, whether on 68 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 1: the business side or the retail side it typically deals with. Sure, 69 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 1: happy to um, we're coming up on our hundred and 70 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 1: sixtieth anniversary. Were found in eighteen fifty eight in Cincinnati. Um. 71 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 1: If you think of Cincinnati in that time and place, 72 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:19,039 Speaker 1: it was essentially the gateway to the Western expansion, the 73 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: gateway to the agricultural boom in the United States and industrialization. 74 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 1: And we're still very much the bankers to the American heartland. 75 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 1: We have a ten state footprint of retail branches as 76 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 1: well as other offices that are not retail that extends 77 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:38,720 Speaker 1: from the northern Midwest that traditional rust belt states down 78 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:41,160 Speaker 1: through the southeastern Florida. A hundred and forty two billion 79 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 1: dollar bank. So when people talk about the opioid epidemic, 80 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: they often seem to connect it with the decline of 81 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: the manufacturing industry in some ways or at least they 82 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,600 Speaker 1: say that it's more pervasive in states where that's happened. 83 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 1: Is that your experience as well? I think that's certainly 84 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,040 Speaker 1: the start of it that we believe eve that there 85 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: are three closely connected social all is long term unemployment, 86 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: the opioid epidemic, and the incarceration recidivism cycle. And the 87 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 1: starting point is long term unemployment, and I think for 88 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:16,039 Speaker 1: many years a sense of despair that was prevalent in 89 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 1: the rest belt. But to be fair, the opioid epidemic 90 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: has spread well beyond there. It's in Massachusetts, it's in 91 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 1: New Hampshire in a big way, as well as really 92 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:27,559 Speaker 1: in every in all of the states to some degree 93 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:31,279 Speaker 1: or another. So obviously people have been talking about this 94 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: for a while from a public health standpoint and a 95 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 1: sociological standpoint. But you have the perspective of talking to 96 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 1: businesses all the time and their challenges and hiring and 97 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:47,719 Speaker 1: things like that. You're at a conference right now in Columbus, Ohio, 98 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: So what are what are people saying about the effect 99 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:52,919 Speaker 1: that this is having on their ability to hire? A 100 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:55,839 Speaker 1: long term theme that we've been hearing from business owners 101 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:57,640 Speaker 1: in the spaces that we focus a lot of our 102 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 1: banking efforts, that's construction, manufacturing, insportation. For years, business owners 103 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 1: have been telling us that hiring people who can pass 104 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: a drug test, they're Finding people who can pass a 105 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 1: drug test has been a challenge. And it was actually 106 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 1: four or five years ago. I remember the moment to 107 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: breakfast with CEOs in Lexington, Kentucky, where they talked about 108 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 1: I said, what is it, you know, marijuana? And everyone responded, no, 109 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: it's pills. And that really got us looking. And that 110 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 1: is continues to be a theme and a theme that 111 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:28,039 Speaker 1: has intensified as the labor markets have tightened. In these 112 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 1: industries that need people who can pass a drug test, 113 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 1: it's become increasingly difficult to find people. And then there's 114 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 1: also this epidemic of existing employees who are becoming addicted. 115 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 1: And so we have just a terrible problem. And it's 116 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: an economic problem, not just a social problem. So I 117 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 1: have a really stupid question, but I've always wondered this, 118 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 1: If labor market tightness is a problem, if you can't 119 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: find enough good workers because they're all failing their drug tests, 120 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 1: why not just do away with the drug test. It's 121 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:02,719 Speaker 1: a workplace safety issue. Speaking to one manufacturer, for instance, 122 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:06,239 Speaker 1: in Kalamazoo, Michigan told me that he did not drug 123 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 1: test his employees until existing employees came to him and 124 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 1: asked him to do it because they felt they had 125 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 1: a few bad apples who were endangering others. You know, 126 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: if you think about these industries, uh, you want someone 127 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 1: who is clean and sober operating the crane or the forklift, 128 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 1: or you know, around electricity or molten metal. You know, 129 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: these are heart land industries and it's a safety issue. 130 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: What about um you know, I know you mentioned another one, 131 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 1: and that is criminal justice recidivism. Have you seen employers 132 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: relax some of their background checks so drug test aside 133 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 1: other things that might have previously been a red flag 134 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: in an employment application, such as a conviction for a crime. 135 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 1: In light of these tight labor markets and a light 136 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 1: of these sort of general desire to reincorporate people into 137 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,840 Speaker 1: the workforce, is there any flexibility on stuff like that? 138 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 1: There is increasing flexibility. So the other barriers on the 139 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 1: drug testing end, by the way, are often insurance requirements 140 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:08,679 Speaker 1: or federal contracting or sometimes state contracting requirements. There aren't 141 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 1: the same hurdles for hiring people with a who are 142 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 1: ex offenders, but there are some hurdles. Nonetheless, often there's 143 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 1: extra liability. If you hire someone with a criminal background 144 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,640 Speaker 1: and then there's an event at the workplace, you as 145 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: an employer may be more vulnerable. This is state by state. 146 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 1: States like Ohio have actually gone ahead and alleviated that liability, 147 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:33,559 Speaker 1: so you have no more liability for someone who is 148 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: an ex offender than for any other employee, which is 149 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 1: really fair when you think about it. Employers are coming around. 150 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: We do see, at least anecdotally, more and more employers 151 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: willing to consider that. This has been highlighted in the press. 152 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:50,679 Speaker 1: Our concern at fifth third, having researched this quite a bit, 153 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 1: is that this is necessary but not sufficient. If you 154 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: look at the truly successful private sector models for employing 155 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:02,320 Speaker 1: ex offenders, they require you to do a few extra steps, 156 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 1: not just willing to consider them. You have to uh 157 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:09,319 Speaker 1: staff your people a little bit differently. Actually, best practices 158 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 1: are offering an extension of your E a P program 159 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 1: that allows for some of the very specific social and 160 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: economic needs of this population. If you do that, hiring 161 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,439 Speaker 1: ex offender is a tremendous advantage. You actually have very 162 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 1: low turnover rates and get a more dedicated employee. But 163 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:27,840 Speaker 1: the way it's going on now, some of that pickup 164 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 1: is more haphazard, so we're not sure how sustainable that 165 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 1: will be. So I'm looking at a chart of the 166 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 1: labor force participation rate. Joe isn't going to believe me, 167 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 1: but I am actually looking at it. It was a 168 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 1: peak of scent in and it's drifted down basically ever 169 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 1: since then to about six as of mid sort of 170 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 1: last year. When we look at ex offenders and people 171 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:56,559 Speaker 1: addicted to painkillers, is there something specific about that problem 172 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: that seems to translate into them just leaving the workforce 173 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 1: entirely versus just being among the pool of unemployed. So 174 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: we don't know the exact numbers. There's some very good 175 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: work that's been done looking at people who are not 176 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:13,959 Speaker 1: in the labor force, so who are not job seek 177 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: areas they're completely out of the labor force. And for instance, 178 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,319 Speaker 1: Princeton economist Alan Krueger has done some very good survey 179 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 1: work and he estimates that among prime age males fifty 180 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:26,320 Speaker 1: four year olds, you know, these are people who are 181 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 1: typically close to all in in the labor force. Of 182 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 1: those who are not in the labor force, over admit 183 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 1: to taking pain pills, which probably means that a higher 184 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 1: number of taking pain pills or other forms of opioids 185 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 1: like heroin and his by his estimate, one point four 186 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 1: million prime age males are not in the labor force 187 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:52,199 Speaker 1: because of the opioid epidemic. It's a tremendous number. Then 188 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,319 Speaker 1: there's also the issue of those who might be jobs seeking, 189 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: so who are unemployed but are technically in the workforce, 190 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: and then those I think it's also important to consider 191 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,959 Speaker 1: those who are underemployed, who are not able to get 192 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 1: a job in say manufacturing, that could offer a good 193 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: paycheck and a career because they can't pass a drug test. 194 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 1: We recently got the U. S Department of Health and 195 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: Human Services updated their numbers. Here's where that government arm 196 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 1: believes we are. We're at the end of eleven and 197 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 1: a half million Americans misusing prescription opioids and two point 198 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 1: one million people who could be defined as actually having 199 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 1: an opioid use disorder essentially are addicted. So those numbers 200 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:37,559 Speaker 1: suggest to us that it's not just the people who 201 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 1: are out of the workforce, it's not just the unemployed. 202 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:44,679 Speaker 1: It's also a productivity and underemployment problem of those who 203 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: are in the workforce. Jeff, do you see anything on 204 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 1: the state level or the local level that looks like 205 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: a substantial policy response. So obviously it's gone beyond a 206 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 1: social crisis, it's also an economic crisis. Almost nobody in 207 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 1: any aspect of sort of modern life isn't being affected. 208 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 1: But at the national level, you look around and it's 209 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 1: hard to see a whole lot of action. But from 210 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 1: your perspective, do you see any meaningful change? We're starting 211 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 1: to see some change. It's not necessarily government lead. So 212 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:24,160 Speaker 1: for instance, you saw CVS limit the size of an 213 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 1: opioid script that they will fill at a at a 214 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: given point in time. You see places like Michigan are 215 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 1: talking about I spoke to someone on a Michigan Medical 216 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:37,079 Speaker 1: Oversight board and they are looking at doctors who over 217 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:40,439 Speaker 1: prescribe and requiring education or at least talking about doing that. 218 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 1: So you see a lot of small policies that hopefully 219 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: add up to some impact. Part of the problem here 220 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 1: is it's more than one problem. So the low hanging 221 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: fruit from a policy perspective, seems to us to be 222 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 1: preventing over prescribing, and it still goes on. I can't 223 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 1: tell you, as I speak about this around the country, 224 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:00,839 Speaker 1: how many times someone comes up to me will tell 225 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 1: me about their child who had a sports injury, had 226 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: maybe a fracture, required some minor surgery, and was given 227 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: a prescription for sixty oxy content with an automatic refill 228 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,560 Speaker 1: or a hundred pills with a refill. You know, this 229 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: sort of thing shouldn't be going on, but it still is. 230 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 1: So there are policies, whether it's proactive from a company 231 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: like a CVS or at the state level, there are 232 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:27,760 Speaker 1: policies that can impact that. The stickier problem is what 233 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 1: you do with the eleven million plus people who are 234 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:35,680 Speaker 1: already misusing those About a quarter of opioid addicts started 235 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,599 Speaker 1: with a prescription for themselves, which means that three quarters 236 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:43,320 Speaker 1: got a prescription from someone else or otherwise are using 237 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 1: things like fentonel or heroine illicit drugs, So they're out there. 238 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:51,839 Speaker 1: It's very difficult to kick this habit um. And then 239 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 1: even if you kick the habit it's often associated with 240 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:58,280 Speaker 1: If you're an opioid addict, you've probably had some interaction 241 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: with the criminal justice system, probably have difficulty getting back 242 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 1: into employment, and so if you kick the habit. People 243 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 1: who run rehab centers and rehab programs all tell me 244 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,480 Speaker 1: that one of the secrets to staying off of this 245 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 1: addiction is to be actively engaged in a community and 246 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 1: have a job. And so that's another barrier. So there's 247 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 1: a whole there's a whole system that has to be 248 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 1: addressed here. It's sort of a catch twenty two, isn't it. 249 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 1: Can I just go back to the prescription thing that 250 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 1: you were saying, because I have a personal anecdote, which 251 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 1: was two years ago when I was living in New York, 252 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 1: I sprained my wrist in a very misjudged throw at 253 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 1: a punching bag at the gym, sprained wrist, go to 254 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 1: the doctor. He gave me a two week supply of 255 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 1: percoset or sprained wrist, which I could not I just 256 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 1: couldn't believe it. I've broken my wrists in Europe a 257 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 1: couple of times and in Asia, and no one had 258 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 1: ever given me pain killers for that. It was just 259 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 1: a completely different treatment of pain. So, putting that aside 260 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 1: for one second silver lining, I guess, if we have 261 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 1: labor market tightness, and we have this long awaited missing 262 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 1: wage increase, and we have a declining labor force participation rate. 263 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: Does that mean that eventually wages for people who aren't 264 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 1: addicted to pain killers or who are eligible for the 265 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 1: workforce are eventually going to go up. We think so. 266 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 1: In fact, we think there have been a couple of 267 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 1: catalysts for wage increases. We've obviously had tight labor market 268 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: and it's been made tighter by all these social ills. 269 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 1: But the FED likes to talk about inflation expectations being 270 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 1: well anchored. Anchors are great as long as they're stuck 271 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 1: in the mud, But the minute you lift them up, 272 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: you're you're at at the whim of prevailing forces. And 273 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 1: the prevailing forces today are inflationary. But we think a 274 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: couple of shocks to the system are helping to lift 275 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: that anchor. The demand for labor. In the wake of 276 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: the hurricanes that impacted Florida and especially Texas, that's put 277 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 1: an extra squeeze on the market, and we at least 278 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 1: anecdotally here of employers paying up. And then now I 279 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: think clearly tax reform is causing wages to move higher. 280 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 1: We're not done with this. We're expecting a real pickup 281 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 1: and wage inflation here at fifth third. Let's talk about 282 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 1: the current state of the economy a little bit more. 283 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: There's been a lot of debate and skepticism about the 284 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: sort of pass through from tax reform to labor and 285 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 1: two wages, And of course the big argument from the 286 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: White House has been that cut taxes for corporations that 287 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: will make them invest more, that will cause wages to rise. 288 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: Skeptics have said this tax reform is largely a tax 289 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 1: cut for the rich and very little will trickle down. Ultimately, 290 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: we've had a series of very public announcements from companies 291 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 1: and they say, in the wake of tax reform, we're 292 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 1: going to be giving a bonus, are going to be 293 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: increasing the minimum wage we pay our employers. But even 294 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 1: that doesn't really solve the mystery because some will say, a, 295 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: maybe this is publicity and be they're probably gonna have 296 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 1: to do this anyway because the labor markets tightening. So 297 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 1: really walk us through the mechanics of what you're seeing 298 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:08,160 Speaker 1: on the ground, the interplay between the new tax regime 299 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:11,920 Speaker 1: and how companies are thinking about their wage and investment decisions. 300 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: I certainly understand those who have criticized because if you 301 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 1: look at the historical data when we've done first of all, 302 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 1: we've it's been so long since we've done meaningful tax reform. 303 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 1: But in general, tax cuts have not produced much in 304 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:30,879 Speaker 1: the way of wage increases. But that's because these kind 305 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 1: of stimulus bills are typically done when you have a 306 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 1: lot of slack in the labor market. That is not 307 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 1: the case here. So we have felt very strongly that 308 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,920 Speaker 1: some of the benefits to corporations from the tax bill 309 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 1: would be shared with workers. Obviously, some is going to 310 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: go to share buybacks, some may go to dividend increases, 311 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 1: and some will go to capital investment. So it's really 312 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:56,199 Speaker 1: a company by company and industry by industry decision. But 313 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 1: I think because we are doing this at a time 314 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:03,080 Speaker 1: of tight lay her some it's more likely that a 315 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 1: greater percentage of that benefit will flow to workers than 316 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,199 Speaker 1: has in the past. It's also the case that a 317 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 1: greater benefit will flow to investment than might have in 318 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 1: the past, for two reasons. Number one, you obviously have 319 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 1: the ability to expense capital investments, so that's that acceleration 320 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:26,679 Speaker 1: of a depreciation schedule so aggressively is very productive. Number Two, 321 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 1: capex is how a business responds when you run out 322 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 1: of labor. If you want to grow your business and 323 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:35,200 Speaker 1: you can't find employees, you have to make your existing 324 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,080 Speaker 1: employees more productive. The way to do that is through 325 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 1: capital investment. So one thing that amazes me, again sitting 326 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: outside of the US for the most part, is when 327 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 1: I look at things like these small business optimism survey 328 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: and it's just been off the charts since Trump was elected. 329 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 1: What accounts for that optimism? Is it all the tax policies, 330 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 1: the promised infrastructure spending, or is there just something that 331 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 1: has changed in the sort of collective American psyche. You know, 332 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: it's a really interesting question, and I think it requires 333 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,920 Speaker 1: one to be in touch with the type of customer 334 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,439 Speaker 1: base we have. We actually were the first private bank 335 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 1: to increase our equity allocation in the wake of the election. 336 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: It was about a week after the election, and we 337 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: had actually been planning on doing it in the then 338 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:28,640 Speaker 1: unlikely instance that Trump was elected, because we felt very 339 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 1: strongly It's not because we liked or disliked the president, 340 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 1: but we felt very strongly that small business owners, and 341 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 1: by small I mean the official sort of government definition 342 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:44,240 Speaker 1: is under a thousand employees, small businesses were going to 343 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 1: react very positively to the election. I do these CEO 344 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,720 Speaker 1: roundtables in a number of our major cities. I did 345 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,400 Speaker 1: one in March that The New York Times actually sent 346 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: a report or two to sit in and and we 347 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 1: met with the CEOs of of local companies anywhere, employees 348 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 1: anywhere from maybe a hundred to five or six hundred, 349 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 1: so you know, small to mid sized business is mostly 350 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:14,640 Speaker 1: manufacturing and transportation. The reporter in in his article likened 351 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 1: the meaning to a group therapy session where even those 352 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: who did clearly had not voted for Trump, felt a 353 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 1: palpable sense of relief. And the feeling is that if 354 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 1: you are an employer of a couple hundred people, you 355 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: are in the worst of all worlds. You feel like 356 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 1: or felt like, you're a target of regulator intrusion and 357 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:43,199 Speaker 1: excesses without having the the resources to counter those or 358 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 1: to support all of that. And this is not a 359 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 1: pro regulation or an anti regulation stance. This is just 360 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 1: the reality of how businesses react. Large corporations simply have 361 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 1: a larger infrastructure to deal with that. It tends not 362 00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 1: to distract the CEO to the degree it would have 363 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 1: amaller business. Um When you look at smaller businesses, typically 364 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:08,160 Speaker 1: these are family owned businesses often second generation, and so 365 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 1: business owners take anything that is standing in their way 366 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 1: or risk to their business. Essentially, they take very personally 367 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:19,119 Speaker 1: and it's it's almost an emotional decision. So the reason 368 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 1: we opt their equity allocation was we saw that optimism 369 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,679 Speaker 1: coming and we were looking for that optimism to have 370 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 1: its traditional relationship to driving capital investment. It usually takes 371 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 1: six to eight months. This cycle was just like all 372 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:37,200 Speaker 1: the past cycles, business optimism rows. Sixty eight months later 373 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 1: you started to see a real pickup in CAPEX and 374 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 1: the small and medium sized businesses owners that you speak to. 375 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:49,720 Speaker 1: Are they experiencing on a day to day business fewer 376 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 1: calls and fewer complaints from regulators? Or is it they 377 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,120 Speaker 1: feel more of a vibe that the administration has their 378 00:21:57,160 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 1: backs more from sort of a a tonal thing. I 379 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,680 Speaker 1: guess that might ask. I believe it's more a tonal thing. 380 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:05,960 Speaker 1: You know, the regulations are still out there, they're still 381 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:09,120 Speaker 1: being enforced. There's obviously been some lightning up and say 382 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:12,200 Speaker 1: the energy sector, which is one of the industries we bank, 383 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 1: But for the most part, it was the tone. So 384 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,360 Speaker 1: out of this meeting and back in Toledo and one 385 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 1: a consistent theme I've heard in the months since then 386 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 1: is it's not so much that we have less regulation, 387 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 1: it's that we know we have an end to the 388 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:30,640 Speaker 1: the onslaught of new regulation, and that's been very, very meaningful. 389 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,080 Speaker 1: So business owners feel that they can play offense again 390 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 1: and not just a constant defense and again not defending 391 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 1: their view, but their view is meaningful. And one of 392 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,119 Speaker 1: the things that I think we forget those of us 393 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 1: who are involved in the public markets. Large corporations are 394 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,160 Speaker 1: what we tend to talk about all day, but job 395 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:52,200 Speaker 1: creation in the United States is usually done by small 396 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:56,640 Speaker 1: private companies. Jeff, from your advantage point both at Fifth Third, 397 00:22:56,720 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 1: which obviously has a lot of links to smaller medium 398 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:04,439 Speaker 1: sized businesses, but also as chief investment strategist, what do 399 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 1: you think about the current state of public markets then? 400 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,240 Speaker 1: Do you think a lot of that optimism has been 401 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,119 Speaker 1: priced in at this point or is there more to 402 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: go now? We do think a fair amount as being 403 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,720 Speaker 1: priced in right now. We are slightly overweight equity. We 404 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:20,080 Speaker 1: actually cut back towards the end of last year from 405 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: in the magnitude of our overweight. We're still shy of bonds, 406 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: but we've just spread our risk oriented assets beyond traditional equities, 407 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: and two things like our real asset class, which is 408 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,920 Speaker 1: reats and infrastructure and MLPs, and even for the first 409 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 1: time since two thousand twelve, we even have a little 410 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 1: golden portfolios. We also have upted our weights to alternatives 411 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 1: all these things that we still categorize as risk assets. 412 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,239 Speaker 1: But we think the best of the run in the 413 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 1: public markets it's not over, but the best of it 414 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:54,560 Speaker 1: is probably behind us. All right, Jeff, that was great. 415 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:58,360 Speaker 1: Jeff Corzenic, chief investment strategist at Fifth Third Private Bank, 416 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 1: that was great to have you. Really enjoyed talking to 417 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,960 Speaker 1: you in great perspective. Thanks Jeff, Thanks so much for 418 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:18,560 Speaker 1: a pleasure to be here. So, Joe, I think Postcards 419 00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 1: from the American Heartline was probably an apt summary of 420 00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 1: that episode. Yeah, I thought that was a really useful 421 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:28,240 Speaker 1: discussion because you and I we spend so much time 422 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 1: a in our respective bubbles, but beyond that sort of 423 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:36,640 Speaker 1: looking at markets in the economy from a very high 424 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 1: level perspective and so hearing about these microth things like 425 00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:44,399 Speaker 1: about how say, small business owners think about the regulatory 426 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,639 Speaker 1: environment and how that then feeds through two jobs and 427 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 1: other stuff like that it's just like a good reminder 428 00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 1: that there are actual people who have to make these 429 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 1: decisions and it's not not everything is just a function 430 00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:01,120 Speaker 1: of sort of supplied demand, interest rate stuff like that. Yeah, well, 431 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,640 Speaker 1: ultimately the macro is all about the micro, I guess. 432 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,679 Speaker 1: I also love that Jeff is a chief investment strategist 433 00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 1: but also has all these insights to actual on the 434 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,120 Speaker 1: ground decisions that are being made. He's like the perfect 435 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 1: guy to talk about this. Before we go, I just 436 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,480 Speaker 1: want to give a plug for two things. We are 437 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 1: at sort of the early stages of studying what the 438 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,879 Speaker 1: opioid epidemic actually means for the economy, but Jeff mentioned it. 439 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 1: Alan Krueger of Princeton has done some amazing work on this. 440 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,639 Speaker 1: His Brookings paper Where Have All the Workers Gone? Is 441 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 1: well worth a read. And there's one other one I 442 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:40,120 Speaker 1: found called Prescription Opioids and Labor Market Pains, and they 443 00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 1: actually look at county by county prescription levels and try 444 00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:47,760 Speaker 1: to draw connection with the labor market, so that one's 445 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:51,000 Speaker 1: really interesting as well. Great, we'll have to check both 446 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,399 Speaker 1: those out. And I agree like this this. You know, 447 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:57,879 Speaker 1: it doesn't seem like the labor force particisipatient mystery and 448 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,640 Speaker 1: I'm making air quotes in the student because I hate 449 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 1: using that word mystery. But it's you know, it's totally 450 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: been solved. But it does seem like, especially in the 451 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 1: last year, sort of more awareness of this sort of 452 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:14,359 Speaker 1: this crisis being a macroeconomic factor. All Right, So this 453 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,440 Speaker 1: has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm 454 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 1: Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway, 455 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 1: and I'm Joe wisn't Thal. You can follow me on 456 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:27,480 Speaker 1: Twitter at the Stalwart, and you should follow our producer 457 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,320 Speaker 1: to for Foreheads on Twitter at fore Heast, as well 458 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:36,080 Speaker 1: as the Bloomberg head of podcast, Francesco Levy at Francesca Today. 459 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.