1 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody, the Betting Pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: your bets. This b Joey p Joep's a PA, and 3 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:09,360 Speaker 1: this is VP NFL. Scott Bogman and I have another 4 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:12,559 Speaker 1: week of some primetime football for you. We got not one, 5 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:16,440 Speaker 1: but two games on Saturday night with big playoff implications. 6 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 1: We're gonna break those down for you here. 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Scott Bogman, we got the Carolina Panthers, we 26 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 1: got the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Already told you I don't 27 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 1: like either of these teams. I want to write in 28 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 1: the Saints, I'm not allowed. I was told. I'm pissed 29 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,320 Speaker 1: off about that. I'm pissed off about this one. And 30 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,399 Speaker 1: we've got the Seattle San Francisco matchup as well. So 31 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 1: let's start with these two games here. Let's start with 32 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 1: Carolina Tampa get your take. Here are the lines. Plus 33 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: three for Carolina, you're getting minus two and a half 34 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 1: for Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield at home as a favorite 35 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,680 Speaker 1: doesn't always go great. Forty three for the over, forty 36 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 1: four and a half of the under, and then plus 37 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:36,759 Speaker 1: one thirty three on the money line for the Carolina Panthers. 38 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:40,040 Speaker 1: That's the lines. Where are you with him? 39 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:42,680 Speaker 2: Scott Bogman, Yeah, I'm gonna take Tampa Bay at home. 40 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:46,039 Speaker 2: I feel like we did see Baker Mayfield, who's been 41 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 2: playing through this shoulder thing or whatever it is for 42 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,840 Speaker 2: a while. I feel like last week we did see 43 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 2: him kind of get right, at least in throwing right. 44 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 2: They still didn't play very well, but I think we 45 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 2: saw Baker get right. They're at home, Carolina has to travel. 46 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 2: I think we see Tampa Bay win that game. But 47 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,359 Speaker 2: that is two teams backing into the playoffs. We talked 48 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 2: about it on Out of Bounds this week, Joey. I 49 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 2: think whoever wins is getting drummed in the first round. 50 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 2: Both both of these teams have been pretty gross. So 51 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 2: I'll take the Panthers in that game, and then in 52 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 2: the Niners game, I'll take the Niners because they're getting 53 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:24,639 Speaker 2: points at home. 54 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 1: I mean, wait, I gotta break it down. I even 55 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 1: give the Niners numbers. 56 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, oh my bad. 57 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:33,360 Speaker 1: I know I want to bury this game box, but 58 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: I gotta at least give a take. 59 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 2: Well, put let's put it in the shallow grave, please please. 60 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: But love of God, I'm gonna take Carolina and the 61 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: money line. Why because everything Bagama said is right and 62 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: Tampa should win this game, and Tampa has screwed me 63 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: more times than I could possibly fathom. And look, they 64 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:50,960 Speaker 1: have screwed themselves too. I have had it with all 65 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 1: these games that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are supposed to 66 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: win and should win and don't win. They keep losing 67 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,239 Speaker 1: games when they won in seven since their buy week. 68 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:00,920 Speaker 1: I mean, it's brutal. It's absolutely brutal. I don't want 69 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: to hear it anymore. I've had it with the Buccaneers. 70 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: I feel like all the pressures on the Buccaneers too, 71 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 1: and there's none on the Carolina Panthers. I don't know how, 72 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: but I feel like the Panthers find a way to 73 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:11,399 Speaker 1: win this stupid game. 74 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 2: I do. And this is why we don't do MVPs 75 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 2: halfway through the year, right because Baker would have had it. 76 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: Baker would have absolutely had it. Baker speaking of MVP too, 77 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:21,920 Speaker 1: before you even get to that, because you brought it up. 78 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:23,239 Speaker 1: I wasn't going to bring it up that I was, 79 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 1: and I wasn't now I am any Matthew Stafford kind 80 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: of screwed the pooch last night. 81 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 2: I mean, listen, Joe, any way for you to shoehorn 82 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 2: Drake May into this conversation. 83 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 1: What Drake made to win MVP. Look ESVP never wins 84 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. 85 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 2: I'm just going to where you want to go to, 86 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 2: all right, you you let me down there, Yes you do, 87 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 2: Yes you do? Uh yeah. I look, it was not 88 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 2: the best performance. Didn't help me in my championship against 89 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 2: the well she beat me in the home league, which 90 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 2: is just I gotta listen to this crap for a year. 91 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 2: So I just I'm really frustrated with Matthew Safford right now. 92 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 2: So no, he would not get my MVP vot. I 93 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 2: can tell you that right now. 94 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: I still feel like they're gonna give it to him 95 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 1: anyway because it's his last shot. And you know, again 96 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 1: the reputation the last guy who win the MVP and 97 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl was Tom Brady, right, And so it 98 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 1: doesn't happen very often, and it's been a very long time, 99 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: but I think one time in twenty years that it's 100 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 1: happened where the guy who win MVP also won the 101 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 1: Super Bowl. And I don't want it to happen, but 102 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 1: I'm just putting it out there. All right now, we 103 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 1: can bury this game. We could talk about the props later, 104 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:29,840 Speaker 1: but let's talk about the other one. Seattle, San fran 105 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: San Fran is now two and a half point underdogs 106 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 1: at home. But you get minus five right now on 107 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:37,280 Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks. Forty nine and a half for the over, 108 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:39,480 Speaker 1: fifty one and a half for the under. Minus won 109 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:41,479 Speaker 1: a four of the money line for Seattle San Fran 110 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 1: plus went away on the money line, Bogs, what's your 111 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:44,279 Speaker 1: feelings on this one? 112 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,480 Speaker 2: The Niners at home? Like I almost gave away before 113 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 2: plus two and a half, you're gonna give me points 114 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:54,039 Speaker 2: for the Niners at home? I'm I'm gonna yeah, it's 115 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 2: give me the points here for the Niners at home. 116 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 2: They brock Party is on an absolute heater right now. 117 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 2: He's playing his best football of the year by a 118 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:08,280 Speaker 2: wide margin right now. I think I love their momentum 119 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 2: in this game, So give me the Niners. Seattle's got 120 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 2: great momentum too. I'm not trying to take anything away 121 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:15,400 Speaker 2: from them. They're a very good team. I think this 122 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 2: will be high scoring and kind of like the over 123 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 2: as well. So yeah, I think both these offenses are 124 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 2: humming right now. But brock Party is on a ridiculous heater. 125 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 1: All right. I'm gonna go with the over here on 126 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 1: this one. Well, forty nine and a half. I'm sick 127 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 1: of brock Party's dance. Though I'm sick of it, I 128 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: don't want to see it. I would love to be 129 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: wrong about this one, but I do think it's going 130 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:38,920 Speaker 1: to be the over here on this one again too, 131 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:42,040 Speaker 1: because forty ninerds of finding ways to score. Now George 132 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:43,599 Speaker 1: Kittle's health, that's gonna be a big question in this 133 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:44,040 Speaker 1: game too. 134 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 2: Are we going to get How do we have both 135 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 2: these teams win and both the other teams lose? 136 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: What's that? 137 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:52,120 Speaker 2: How do we have both these teams win and both 138 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 2: the other teams lose? Can't? The Bucks and Panthers are backing, 139 00:05:57,640 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 2: and they both look like they want to lose. Both 140 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 2: these teams look like they want to win. That's all 141 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 2: I'm saying. 142 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: Yes, yes, now, I understand what you're saying, and yes, 143 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 1: they do much better game, much but much better game, 144 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 1: you know, look just enough to do the Buccaneers is 145 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 1: just made me furious. But I will say this, forty 146 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:17,599 Speaker 1: nine ers offensively, very impressive. Defensively, still a lot of holes, 147 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: you know, still a lot of They're very hurt there, Yeah, 148 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 1: they are injured. A lot of issues there. The George 149 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 1: Kittle injury too. We'll see how that goes, because obviously 150 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:27,600 Speaker 1: he was going to play this past week and that's going. 151 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 2: To get him in the playoffs, right. I really do 152 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 2: think that that that that the injuries are too much 153 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:36,279 Speaker 2: for them to overcome once we get to the playoffs. 154 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 2: But I do like they're at home here parties on 155 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 2: a heater. Sam Donald has been playing great as well, 156 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 2: but I think it's more. 157 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: Like, you know, Sam Donald in the last I think 158 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 1: it was like I think it was three years. I 159 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 1: think there was a stat out there of Sam Donald 160 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 1: last three years. He's like top five in all these 161 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 1: QB categories, right, And I guess, you know, people, it's 162 00:06:57,640 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: a slow burn here with Sam Donald, and I guess 163 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 1: the reclamation project as work. But you know, the forty 164 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 1: nine ers are also a bit of a product of 165 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:07,559 Speaker 1: a soft schedule too. Let's not pretend like they're not sure. 166 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:09,479 Speaker 1: We all said that going in. They you know, this 167 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 1: is a real test for the forty nine ers to 168 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: play Seattle at this juncture in the season here with 169 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 1: something on the line. I think Seattle is a better 170 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 1: football team. And if I had to press here, I 171 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 1: would go Seattle money line minus one to four boom. 172 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: Just take that. But I think the over is probably 173 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: the best bet here because I do think despite how 174 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 1: good that Seattle defense is, San Franz offense is gonna 175 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: find some ways to put some points on the board 176 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: in this one. Speaking of like week schedules, going back 177 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 1: to that MVP conversation too, Matthew Stafford and Drake May, 178 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 1: by the way, have a lot of combined opponents this year, 179 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 1: right against common opponents. Drake May fifteen hundred and eighty 180 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 1: five yards passing, Stafford fifteen hundred and forty five yards passing. 181 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 1: Drake May thirteen touchdowns, three picks, Matthew Stafford fourteen touchdowns, 182 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: six picks. Everyone keeps talking about how Drake May's schedule 183 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 1: is soft, but they have common opponents and a lot 184 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 1: of them, so nobody talks about that when it comes 185 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: to the RAMS. Just putting that out there for eevery 186 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 1: so again, I want Matthew Stafford to win because I 187 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 1: want the Patriots win the Super Bowl. 188 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 2: I didn't like that that trend is nonsense. 189 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 1: I don't know many years of data. 190 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 2: I don't hard it's it's correlation, not causation. Like that 191 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 2: is that that trend is not This is why I 192 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 2: don't like trends because they are they A lot of 193 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 2: them are correlation not causation, and I don't I don't like. 194 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,120 Speaker 1: So what's the correlation causation argument when you talk about 195 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 1: these teams that lose the Super Bowl the next year 196 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 1: crap out because that. 197 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 2: That that is correlation and causation because they played too 198 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 2: many games and they're worn out going into the next year. 199 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 2: There is correlation to causation there. There is none to 200 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 2: MVP and winning the Super Bowl. Like, just tell me 201 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 2: how it how it really affects anything. I don't know why. 202 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 1: It's just but it I don't know it does in 203 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: their head. It doesn't an individual. Everyone's talking about the individual, 204 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 1: not about the team aspect. I don't know. I don't know, 205 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: but we. 206 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 2: Don't have It's like the Heisman Trophy, wint or not 207 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 2: being good in the NFL for a little bit, that 208 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:02,680 Speaker 2: is dried up, right, Like We've seen a lot of 209 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 2: these come and go, and I think a lot of these. 210 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 2: This is why I'm not a trends guy, right because 211 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 2: specifically in college football, where I do a lot of 212 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 2: betting pros work is in college football, right, the teams 213 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,319 Speaker 2: are completely different from one year to the next, specifically 214 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 2: with the transfer portal now, So I just don't like. Yeah, 215 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 2: I don't like trends because trends, you know, trends for coaches. Okay, 216 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 2: like if a coach is entrenched, if we're talking about 217 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 2: Kirk Farren's trends, then okay, he's been at IO for 218 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:34,959 Speaker 2: twenty years. You know, we're talking about Tom Brady and 219 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 2: Bill Belichick trends when they were in New England. Okay, 220 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 2: they were there for twenty years. But the NFL changes 221 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 2: too fast for this to be a real trend. 222 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:44,960 Speaker 1: And I know what, I never want to change the 223 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: sponsor of our show, Hard Rocks. Right, we love hard 224 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 1: Rock Bet here. I'll get that for a transition. 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Play terms and conditions apply. 250 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 1: Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight three to 251 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 1: three play wise. In Indiana If you or someone you 252 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: know is a gambling problem laants help called one eight 253 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: hundred and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred 254 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 1: gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 255 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: Next up here, let's talk about the props here. Let's 256 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,719 Speaker 1: go to Bucky Irving here. Fifty seven and a half 257 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 1: rushing yards. That's where you want to start. Let's talk 258 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 1: about this one. You're going over or under. 259 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:21,000 Speaker 2: We're gonna go over this one. And spoiler alert, we're 260 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 2: going overs this week. Nineteen over for seventy that's right. 261 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 1: Bogman taught me that that's right. 262 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 2: That's right. Nineteen for seventy one in this last game 263 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:34,679 Speaker 2: against Carolina, Carolina nineteenth in rushing yards allowed, twenty third 264 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 2: over the last three weeks, allowing one hundred and thirty 265 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 2: seven yards per game. Bucky's lack of carries last week 266 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,680 Speaker 2: was because the Dolphins were surprisingly up in that game 267 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 2: a lot. Obviously a very frustrating result if you're a 268 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 2: Bucks fan, I understand that. But again, let's get this. 269 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 2: Let's have this trend right. Let's give the ball to Bucky, 270 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 2: Let's keep the ball, and let's throw when we need 271 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 2: to So let's go with the over on Bucky here, 272 00:11:59,200 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 2: all right. 273 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 1: So the over Bucky Irving to start. Let's talk about 274 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 1: a Mecca Egbuca. We're gonna get to an over on him. 275 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: It's an awful quiet here second half. 276 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 2: He has been quiet and he's been bad. Right, I'm 277 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 2: not gonna sit here and tell you that he has 278 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:14,440 Speaker 2: been good. It seems like maybe he's hit the rookie wall. 279 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:16,439 Speaker 2: He's getting tired at the end of the year here, 280 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 2: but also they are making him move. He played his 281 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 2: most percentage of snaps in the slot last week, over 282 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 2: fifty percent, and he hadn't been over fifty percent in 283 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 2: any game, so he is kind of learning a new 284 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 2: position a little bit. And he had one catch for 285 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:34,839 Speaker 2: forty yards, which broke his twenty five and a half 286 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 2: re senior yards prop that we have this week on 287 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 2: one catch, and he should have against Carolina a much 288 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 2: better matchup playing from the slot because the outside corners 289 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 2: jac Hornmichael Jacks have been very, very good in coverage 290 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:51,200 Speaker 2: this year, but the slot has been bad. Child Smith 291 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 2: Wade has allowed thirty eight to forty seven targets to 292 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 2: have to be caught eighty percent completion percentage against him. 293 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 2: Same thing with marrig when he is playing in the 294 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 2: slot as a safety, fifty of sixty two passes against 295 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 2: him had been caught for an eighty point six percentage, 296 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 2: you know against. So I really feel like a mechag 297 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 2: Buka can do this on one catch, but if he 298 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:16,559 Speaker 2: gets three catches, he's crushing this. So I just think 299 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 2: the number is set too low, even for a guy 300 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:20,200 Speaker 2: that's on the struggle bus right now. 301 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, there's the risky one, but it is 302 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: you're backing it up here. All right, Let's go to 303 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:27,959 Speaker 1: brock Purty and a special dance in here over on 304 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 1: half in the dances, I'm going to go over. 305 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 2: Over on dougies. Yeah, we're going over on dougies, and 306 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 2: we're going over on his yards. Two hundred and forty 307 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 2: two and a half. Dude is on a heater right now, 308 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 2: and it really is. He mashed this against Seattle in 309 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 2: the first matchup. Now, that was way back in September, 310 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:45,440 Speaker 2: but he had two hundred and seventy seven yards, two touchdowns. 311 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 2: He did throw two picks in there. And Seattle's defense 312 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 2: has been great recently, but their opponents have also been gross. 313 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 2: If you go and look at some of these quarterbacks 314 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 2: that they faced recently for Seattle. It has not been 315 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 2: a big slew of amazing quarterbacks. So I just really 316 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:03,079 Speaker 2: feel like like rock parties on a heater. That's why 317 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 2: I'm taking the Niners. So the last three weeks since 318 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 2: he hit that dance and then regretted it, he has 319 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 2: like nine touchdowns in one pick or something. It's been 320 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,439 Speaker 2: great and he's crushed this prop three weeks in a row. 321 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 2: So I really have this one. 322 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: You know, I've always been kind of lukewarm about him. 323 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 1: I still believe he's mostly I don't like the term 324 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 1: system quarterback. I think it doesn't give enough credit to 325 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: the guys who are playing football sometimes. And yeah, I mean, 326 00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 1: to be a system quarterback, I mean you have to 327 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 1: have success and understand the system and do well. But 328 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: I want to give pretty credit because he's kicking ass 329 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 1: in the system. Do I think there's a lot of 330 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 1: other quarterbacks you drop into that system and be good? Yeah? 331 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 2: I do, But yeah, but I think there's a lot 332 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 2: that you drop in and are terrible, right Like. I 333 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 2: think that's that's a big thing. And I you know, 334 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:49,240 Speaker 2: we heard Troy Aikman talking about this after Monday Night 335 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 2: Football that you know, the coaching has failed a lot 336 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 2: of the quarterbacks. Look at Sam Darnold's journey, right, just 337 00:14:56,680 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 2: nothing with the Jets at all. They completely ran him 338 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 2: into the ground. He went to Carolina, didn't have much there. 339 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 2: Then he goes to the Niners and backs up and 340 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:09,560 Speaker 2: looks good and finally makes this say with the Vikings 341 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 2: and finally got paid by Seattle and looks great. So 342 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 2: you know, sometimes it just takes a while for a 343 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 2: quarterback to develop. But Shanahan has been doing great with perty, 344 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 2: so that combo has been great. Let's go to the 345 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 2: tight end in Seattle. Our boy a J. Barner here, Dude, 346 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 2: I wanted receptions, right, so I go one, look at 347 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 2: the receptions prop three over three and a half. Receptions 348 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 2: for a J. Barner is minus one fifty. So I 349 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 2: was like, let's pivot to those yards because the number 350 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 2: is way better. It's thirty four and a half minus 351 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 2: one eighteen. Barner is the number two receiving option right 352 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 2: now behind JSN in Seattle. He's number two and everything. 353 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 2: And we did see how Loveland torched the Niners last week. 354 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 2: Ten targets, six catches, ninety four yards and a score, 355 00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 2: and helm Fan and McBride Parkinson have all cleared this 356 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 2: total against the Niners since November. I think we see 357 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 2: passing in this one. I like the over here a 358 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 2: Niners defense. It is weak against the pass and parties 359 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:06,440 Speaker 2: on the heater. So I think we see a little 360 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 2: bit of back and forth from both quarterbacks here. So 361 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 2: let's go with Aj Barner over thirty four and a 362 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 2: half and to end at Joey Ricky Pierce saw over 363 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 2: forty two and a half minus one fourteen. He's hit 364 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 2: this in back to back weeks. He finally, finally, finally 365 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 2: looks healthy five for eighty five against the Bears, seven target, 366 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 2: six catches, ninety six yards against the Titans, and the 367 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 2: first game against Seattle he was healthy for that one. 368 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 2: He had seven targets, four catches and went over one 369 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 2: hundred for one hundred and eight yards. So five props 370 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 2: in two games here. Real early on some of these 371 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 2: numbers right now before the games. But I like these numbers, 372 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 2: so get them while they're hot. 373 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: And remember you can always use a prop bet cheat 374 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 1: sheet as well. Over betting Pros. Download the app or 375 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: go to Bettingpros dot Com slash prop so you can 376 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 1: see the prop bet cheat sheet again. If it's yards, 377 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 1: if it's passing, it's rushing, they're all there for you. 378 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 1: And of course you'll see the best lines with the 379 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 1: fantasy projections and the difference between the two, which makes 380 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 1: it easy. See it's like cheating. Hence why it's called 381 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:07,240 Speaker 1: the cheat sheets. See smart smart, So that's smarter, not harder. 382 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 1: Over here. 383 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 2: That's correlation and causation right there. 384 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: Oh, it's all the things. It's it's it's customization, it's causation, 385 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 1: it's correlation. We need to land on landed on us. 386 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:21,400 Speaker 1: That's why prognostication. All right, let's get to the same 387 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 1: game was I'm Sam game Park Same day parlay because 388 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:25,200 Speaker 1: I don't want to go in the same game stuff 389 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 1: right now. I'm gonna keep this one simple here. I'm 390 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:29,719 Speaker 1: going with the Carolina Panthers on the money line. I'm 391 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:31,400 Speaker 1: going to the Seattle Seahawks on the money line. I'm 392 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:32,920 Speaker 1: just taking the two teams that I think are gonna 393 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: come away victorious and I get three to one on it, 394 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 1: and I'm gonna take that, and I'm just gonna go 395 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,959 Speaker 1: for it and believe that Seattle Defense finds a way 396 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:42,880 Speaker 1: eventually to slow down the forty nine ers, and Sam 397 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 1: Donald doesn't disintegrate. Now. I gave him some crap a 398 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 1: couple weeks ago because I thought I was like, well, 399 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 1: you know, Sam Donald disintegrated some of these big games, 400 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 1: and he didn't. He came back, he found a way 401 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 1: to win. I think this is good for Sam Donald 402 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 1: to kind of shake off the ghost Every time Sam 403 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:56,440 Speaker 1: Donald los is a big game, they talk about the 404 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 1: ghosts again. 405 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:58,120 Speaker 2: He can't escapebold that stuff. 406 00:17:58,320 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 1: I don't want to hear it anymore. 407 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:00,719 Speaker 2: It's gonna fall him forever. 408 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:05,160 Speaker 1: It is, until until he wins a big one, until 409 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: he gets to the super Bowl or does something like that. 410 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,880 Speaker 1: So I believe Seattle Defense travels. I think the forty 411 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 1: nine ers have you know, done a good job against 412 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 1: some lesser teams. This is a real contest for them, 413 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 1: and I think that the forty nine ers will fall 414 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 1: a little bit short, and I think Tampa Bay should 415 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 1: win that game. I am so sick of the Tampa 416 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 1: Bay being better on paper. Argument, so sick of it 417 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 1: because they don't show up in the big. 418 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:28,120 Speaker 2: Smen play these games on paper, Joe. 419 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 1: No, they do not Scott Bogman. They don't play the 420 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:33,680 Speaker 1: games on paper, so Carolina Panthers should not win this 421 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,399 Speaker 1: football game. Therefore I think they will because that's been 422 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 1: the story of the Carolina Panthers all year too. That's 423 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:40,199 Speaker 1: another one too where it's like, well, they should have 424 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:41,400 Speaker 1: win this game and they do, and then ones where 425 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:43,639 Speaker 1: they should you go, what the hell happened to you? 426 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 1: What's wrong with you? Carolina? So if I've learned anything 427 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 1: here in twenty twenty five, as we turn the page 428 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 1: into twenty twenty six, it's do not trust the Carolina 429 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 1: Panthers or the Buccaneers, and I don't. So I'm gonna 430 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 1: go ahead and take the Panthers, take the Seahawks Monday 431 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 1: lines galore three to one. Let's call some touchdowns here. 432 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,240 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Mike Evans scoring a touchdown plus one 433 00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 1: sixty old habits. 434 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 2: Die hard. 435 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: I'm also gonna take your boy aj Barner, who I'm 436 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 1: in on, also plus one sixty. So I'm getting the 437 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 1: nice returns on these two tds. Bogs, Where are you 438 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 1: going for your touchdown calls for Saturday football? 439 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 2: Well, first of all, these were my two picks, by 440 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 2: the way, Like look, at the odds. Oh. I was like, 441 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 2: I was like, I want Evans, I want Barner and 442 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,200 Speaker 2: I want to go look, and I went, damn it, Joe, 443 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,159 Speaker 2: both my guys, come on, man, that never. 444 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,160 Speaker 1: Happens where I get both, sometimes one, but never both. 445 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:32,120 Speaker 2: I mean, you obviously know I like Barner and I 446 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 2: always like Mike Evans. You know he's the one Aggie 447 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 2: I can actually stand. So look, I love these other 448 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 2: picks that I have here though, too. Ted McMillan plus 449 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:45,160 Speaker 2: one seventy five. Look, he had an illness last week. 450 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:47,239 Speaker 2: This is why there was no passing game at all 451 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,200 Speaker 2: whatsoever for the Panthers. It's because he was sick. He's 452 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 2: gonna be much better, maybe not one hundred percent. I 453 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 2: know this flu going around has been pretty nasty. Our boy. 454 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 2: The Welsh sounds like tone Loke about to sing funky 455 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 2: Cole Medina right now if you if you talk to 456 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 2: him on the phone, his voice is so crazy deep. 457 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 2: But I think that Ted is going to be fine 458 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:07,959 Speaker 2: in this game. They're gonna give him all the nice 459 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 2: goofballs and the ivy bags and all that stuff, and 460 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,439 Speaker 2: he'll be good. So plus one seventy five give me 461 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 2: that all day long for a dude that is a 462 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,159 Speaker 2: monster in the red zone. And then we're gonna go 463 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 2: with Jawan Jennings plus one seventy five on him too. 464 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 2: This dude has a touchdown in five straight games and 465 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 2: seven of the last eight games. He's turned into Chris Carter. 466 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 2: All he does is catch touchdowns. So let's go with 467 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 2: Jawan Jennings plus one seventy five on both those. I 468 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:33,199 Speaker 2: love all four of these touchdown calls. I'm glad you 469 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 2: took my two, so I had to go find two 470 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,400 Speaker 2: other ones because I love these numbers on them too, 471 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:37,960 Speaker 2: and I. 472 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: Like your touchdown calls. We all like everybody's touchdown Look 473 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: at your touchdown fest. Drop your comments below here on 474 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,440 Speaker 1: the YouTube channel. Subscribe to the YouTube channel, go download 475 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: hard Rock Bed, and of course go down the download 476 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 1: the betting pros app as well, so you can use 477 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 1: all the tools there for Saturday and Sunday and the 478 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 1: playoffs and every single day. Make it a habit, all right, 479 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 1: that'll do it for us, But the story of the 480 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 1: game goes on for Scott Bog But I'm Joey p. 481 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. Kids. Enjoy Saturday football. 482 00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 483 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:07,920 Speaker 2: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 484 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 2: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 485 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 2: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 486 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 2: Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 487 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 2: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros