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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa A. Brawnowitz Jaily. We bring

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Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

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Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg terminal. Right now,

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Speaker 1: Kaylee Lines and I with our conversation of the day,

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Speaker 1: and it's with a gentleman, Peter Hotez uh All, the

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Speaker 1: dean of a National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College.

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Speaker 1: But far more than that, someone who has fought the

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Speaker 1: virology and virus wars in the parasitology wars for decades.

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Speaker 1: The differences Peter Hotez understands a tropical medicine of Africa,

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Speaker 1: the challenges of the geography of Southern Africa that we

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Speaker 1: don't understand. Peter, to me that so much. The mystery

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Speaker 1: here is how ignorant we are about what needs to

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Speaker 1: be done in Southern Africa. We don't understand it's larger

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Speaker 1: than America on a geographic basis. Yeah, you're absolutely right.

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Speaker 1: If you actually were to superimpose a map of the

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Speaker 1: United States and the African continent, it would barely register.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the African continent is vast geographically and unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: m the what we've the one lesson we've learned about

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Speaker 1: the worst variants that we have is they arise out

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Speaker 1: of large unvaccinated populations. The alpha variant arose out of

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Speaker 1: an unvaccinated population in the UK and Delta out of

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Speaker 1: an unvaccinated population in India. One What did people think

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Speaker 1: was going to happen allowing Africa, the African continent to

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Speaker 1: go completely unvaccinated. This is not a hookworm. And you've

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Speaker 1: been leading on this for decades. You did your PhD

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Speaker 1: thesis at Rockefeller on the horrific tropical diseases, the parasites

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Speaker 1: and and all that. If you know the terrain, what

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Speaker 1: holds the rich guys back from helping the poor guys?

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Speaker 1: Is it? Is it an economic constraint, a financial constraint,

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Speaker 1: or is it a moral constraint? It was, you know,

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Speaker 1: the way I see it, Tom, was a science policy failure.

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Speaker 1: Um The G seven countries there were so fixed when

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Speaker 1: this virus hit on speed and innovation that they all

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Speaker 1: ran like a little kids soccer game where the ball

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Speaker 1: goes in one direction. It was all about mrn a

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Speaker 1: technology and new, new and exciting. You know what I

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Speaker 1: sometimes say in my frustration, shiny new toys that that

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Speaker 1: no one ever gave thought. As any you know, first

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Speaker 1: year engineering student will tell you that when you have

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Speaker 1: rely exclusively on a brand new technology, there's a learning

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Speaker 1: curve before you can go from zero to nine billion

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Speaker 1: doses and or nine billion of anything, whether it's widgets

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Speaker 1: or mRNA vaccines, if it's a brand new technology, there's

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Speaker 1: a learning curve. And so there was never the situational

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Speaker 1: awareness among the G seven leaders to say, hey, wait

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Speaker 1: a minute, we also need to balance the portfolio with

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Speaker 1: an older technology that we know we could scale in

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Speaker 1: places like India and Bangladesh and and Indonesia on the

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Speaker 1: African continent. And that's what we did. So we've developed

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Speaker 1: this recombinant protein vaccine. It's been licensed with no patents,

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Speaker 1: no strings attached to vaccine developers in India, Indonesia, Bangladesh

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Speaker 1: and now with the developer linked to Sub Saharan Africa,

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Speaker 1: and we're doing it and we're making it. But if

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Speaker 1: we had even a fraction of the help that Madarina

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Speaker 1: or visor had gotten from the G seven countries, we

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Speaker 1: might have had the world vaccinated by now. Peter, you

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Speaker 1: talked about policy failures. Is just imposing travel bands from

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Speaker 1: Southern Africa a policy failure? I think it is. We

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Speaker 1: we've we've learned that travel bands simply don't work. We

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Speaker 1: learned us from the beginning, right. We remember how in

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Speaker 1: February of everybody was so focused on travel bands from China.

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Speaker 1: Meanwhile the virus had already entered into New York City

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Speaker 1: from southern Europe to ignite that horrific epidemic in across

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Speaker 1: New York City. So we know that this virus has

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Speaker 1: already spread around the world. And that's not because not

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Speaker 1: because there's anything unique to O Macron. That's been true

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Speaker 1: every variant that we've seen so far. By the time

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Speaker 1: we identify a variant, it's already uh, it's already gone

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Speaker 1: global and uh. And so I think a lot of

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Speaker 1: this is based on optics, where the especially in the

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Speaker 1: European Union and now the US, they want to show

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Speaker 1: that they're doing something, and unfortunately it's incredibly self defeating.

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Speaker 1: It actually impairs our ability to fight the pandemic. Number

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Speaker 1: one and number two, it punishes African countries. And number three,

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Speaker 1: it hurts the economy because it spreads unnecessary panic among

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Speaker 1: investors and and so it's it's a policy failure on

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Speaker 1: all accounts. Well, we did see that panic in the

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Speaker 1: markets take in shape on Friday. This Monday morning, we

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Speaker 1: are getting a little bit of a lift to them. Now,

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Speaker 1: is people really understand that we have very little information

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Speaker 1: at this point? What information is most critical to ascertain? First,

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Speaker 1: there's three three things we need to know. One about

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Speaker 1: the severity of the illness, and so far it does

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Speaker 1: not look like this variant is producing anything unusual in

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Speaker 1: terms of symptoms or severity of illness, but we'll know more. Second,

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Speaker 1: we need to know if the vaccines are current vaccines

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Speaker 1: will cross protect against the omicron variant. That's what we're

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Speaker 1: doing in our labor our laboratories this week with our

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Speaker 1: vaccine as is I'm sure Visor and Maderna. And the

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Speaker 1: way you do that is you measure, you look at

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Speaker 1: antibody responses to your vaccines and show that across is

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Speaker 1: neutralized as the omicron variant or what's called the pseudovirus variant.

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Speaker 1: And we'll know that in the coming days. I think

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Speaker 1: there's a good possibility that with the third immunizations and

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Speaker 1: that boost that you'll get enough virus neutralizing untibodies to

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Speaker 1: cross protect at least partially. And I don't know that

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Speaker 1: for certain, but but that that's the hope. And then

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Speaker 1: we really need to understand the transmissibility. We don't know that, Peter.

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Speaker 1: One final question. I really looked at the vaccination trends

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Speaker 1: this morning, and I think what we're gonna hear from

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Speaker 1: the President is we need to get from vaccinated to

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Speaker 1: sixt vaccinated. How quickly is that doable? Well, sixty unfortunately

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Speaker 1: won't cut it. We need eight of the US population vaccinated.

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Speaker 1: And you know, Tom, we've got this horrific situation in

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Speaker 1: the United States where since June one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: thousand Americans who refused vaccinations needlessly perished from COVID nineteen

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand. So anti science defiance and aggression

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Speaker 1: is now a leading killer of young Americans in the

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Speaker 1: United States. And as long as we have that defiance,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be hard to see how we get to

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Speaker 1: that eighty five percent level. And Peter Hotos, thank you

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Speaker 1: for joining us part for your perspective on Southern Africa.

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Speaker 1: He's with Baylor College as well. Now Celendas joining us

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Speaker 1: now Global head of FA Strategy RBC also help us

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Speaker 1: out there. How sensitive will this market be too incoming

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Speaker 1: economic data including payrolls Friday? Well, economic data is going

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Speaker 1: to be hard to trade off at the moment, just

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Speaker 1: given like you said, we're in this wait and C

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Speaker 1: mode with respect to omicron um. The early indications that

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Speaker 1: came out over the weekend from the chair of the

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Speaker 1: South African Medical Association definitely positive, but everybody acknowledging there's

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Speaker 1: a lot further to go, and and I think for

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Speaker 1: the moment, we're really focused on how markets are trading

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Speaker 1: into your end. You know, Tommy, you said earlier people

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Speaker 1: have had a really good year so far, and part

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Speaker 1: of the reason I think we've seen the pullback we've

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Speaker 1: seen is people are just trying to lock in those

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Speaker 1: games rather than get too greedy into year end. Do

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Speaker 1: you readjust for middle or late two thousand twenty two.

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Speaker 1: Is the sense that you have at RBC that all

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Speaker 1: of your wonderful team recalibrates. Look, at this stage, we're

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Speaker 1: much more focused on the central banks that were about

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Speaker 1: to hike and therefore maybe put off by the uncertainty

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Speaker 1: you know, to do an albion zed if you will, UM,

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Speaker 1: And I put the Bank of England very much in

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Speaker 1: that category versus other central banks that didn't have any

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Speaker 1: kind of big tightening decisions in the very near term future.

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Speaker 1: And I think by the time you get to the

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Speaker 1: back half of two things will look very different to

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Speaker 1: how they do today. I was sort of surprised also

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Speaker 1: lingles a lack of a dollar retreat in the omicron

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Speaker 1: news of Friday, and to recalibrate with euro one twelve

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Speaker 1: eighty nine, can you call a weaker euro look? I

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Speaker 1: think the euro call will very much depend on on

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Speaker 1: your Omicron outlook. UM. Typically, euro dollar has been trading

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Speaker 1: in line with equities for most of this year, so

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Speaker 1: that's to say, when equities were rallying, euro dollar tended

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Speaker 1: to be hiring vice versa. We saw a break in

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Speaker 1: that on Friday, and I'm really glad that's what we

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Speaker 1: saw because it makes perfect sense to me. You know,

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Speaker 1: with the UCB very much back of the queue lockdowns

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Speaker 1: and the impact of COVID already having hurt the EU

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Speaker 1: in recent weeks, it made sense that should rotate to

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Speaker 1: the dollar. I still have a call for your dollar

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Speaker 1: lower into next year. I've had that call since the

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Speaker 1: start of the year, not changed it now. But that's

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Speaker 1: very much based on the cyclical strength of the US

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Speaker 1: versus the your area, and Omicron doesn't change that for

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Speaker 1: me at the moment. So we saw the flipping to

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Speaker 1: euro strength rather than Euro weakness. On Friday. We also

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Speaker 1: saw a massive bid come into the Japanese yend, and

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Speaker 1: that was coming off of extremely weak levels. Was that

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Speaker 1: just the one off bid for a safe haven or

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Speaker 1: do you expect that we actually could see a more

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Speaker 1: persistent reversal there. Look at stuff for the yend, because

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Speaker 1: I think the closer you get to FED normalization, the

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Speaker 1: more you'll anticipate that change in the head ratures of

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Speaker 1: Japanese investors. And you know, everybody likes the position for

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Speaker 1: that with dollar yen higher, um. But at the moment,

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Speaker 1: the yend, the Swiss frank and even to some extent

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Speaker 1: the Euro are the very popular, the very clean safe

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Speaker 1: havens in FFX. The dollar, like you said, a little

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Speaker 1: bit more mixed, actually outperforming against the most of the

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Speaker 1: rest of effects, just not the majors. Do you want

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Speaker 1: to talk about the problem child in the MFX right now,

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Speaker 1: dollar lira also, let's go there. We're here from the

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Speaker 1: Turkish leader this morning. We heard from him about ten

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Speaker 1: minutes ago, says he will never advocate for a great hike.

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Speaker 1: A lot of people see him as the de facto

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Speaker 1: leader with a Turkish central bank. How on earth do

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Speaker 1: you play that currency if at all? Right now, Elsa,

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's a very poise of the question right there.

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Speaker 1: All I'll say is that positioning in the lira is

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Speaker 1: definitely not crowded. We don't think the market is massively

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Speaker 1: long dollar lira UM and I think that if anything

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Speaker 1: creates real concerns when the central bank is not willing

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Speaker 1: to hike rate A Selena's great to catch up. Do

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Speaker 1: you want to us from RBC on this FX market?

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Speaker 1: Andrew Slimon joins us this morning as well. How do

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Speaker 1: you generate those numbers? What is the core slim and

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Speaker 1: religion that generates those stunning performance numbers? Well, good morning.

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Speaker 1: You know, Look, I think it's flexibility to being open

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Speaker 1: minded to what the market offers. Uh. Last year travel

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Speaker 1: leisure socks got absolutely obliterated and we bought those uh

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Speaker 1: this year, it's been a little bit more inflation value oriented,

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Speaker 1: and it's basically my belief that as much as people

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Speaker 1: talk about UH inflation sensitive socks, most people are overweighting

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Speaker 1: gross socks, and so this has been a little bit

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Speaker 1: more painful. As energy has been the best performing sector,

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Speaker 1: financials have done well. Most people talk about that, but

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Speaker 1: they're not invested that way. So having that bias has

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Speaker 1: really helped us all into the competition. I did a

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Speaker 1: Bloomer study andrew off the trading envelope, and I've did

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Speaker 1: a fitted standard deviation move and we've had a four

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Speaker 1: point six standard deviation move in the last four days.

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Speaker 1: Is that a sliming correction? Well, you know, look, on

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Speaker 1: the one hand, I do agree with you know what

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Speaker 1: Goldman sact saying is, you know, more transmissible, less virulent.

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Speaker 1: I do think that people tend to not react the

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Speaker 1: same way to the issues over and over, so COVID

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Speaker 1: as a reaction is less so. But then again, there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of complacency. The market has done so well

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Speaker 1: this year. Yes, I don't see in the markets down

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Speaker 1: a lot on Friday, but I saw retail money coming in.

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Speaker 1: People are buying the dip and so high levels of complacency.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think, you know, we'll get a bounce back,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think it's going to be uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: dramatic because of that kind of complacency to this issue

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Speaker 1: over and over. So if it more into something more serious,

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Speaker 1: that that could be a concern. I doubt it. I

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Speaker 1: think there's much bigger issues next year than COVID. Well,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about those issues now for the first time, Andrew,

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Speaker 1: I've got to say this year the first time I

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Speaker 1: sent some real hesitancy in your voice around the secondity market.

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Speaker 1: Typically it's some convictions and confidence, some bolishness. Andrew, you're

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Speaker 1: not in your head? What's happened to that? Look? I mean,

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Speaker 1: here's a very simple rule. Draw the third year coming

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Speaker 1: off of a bear market or low it's harder. The

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Speaker 1: market doesn't do as well. And that's because financial conditions

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Speaker 1: start to tighten, because you know, central banks say, hey,

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Speaker 1: things are getting better, we don't need this level of

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Speaker 1: you know, liquidity. So financial conditions are going to tighten. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And I think that will be offset by better earnings

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Speaker 1: and expected next year. But the result is you know

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Speaker 1: kind of a you know, single digit year, and you

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Speaker 1: know as well as I do. With the market open

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Speaker 1: as many days, it is every day, and you can

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Speaker 1: have a one or two percent move on any day.

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Speaker 1: That's a lot of volatility around a single digit year.

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Speaker 1: So I suspect that next year is going to be

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Speaker 1: a tougher year to make money as long as unless

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Speaker 1: you stay kind of focused on fundamentals and buying companies

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Speaker 1: that are beating estimates. And I think that would be

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Speaker 1: the big story again next year as it was this year.

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Speaker 1: The Pity Chair writes a really good point over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: I want to read out what he said, Andrew, and

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Speaker 1: you can tell me what you think of it. For

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Speaker 1: the first time since the pandemic started, we faced to

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Speaker 1: sell off where it's unclear what the FED and other

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Speaker 1: central banks will do. There is no guarantee of easy

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Speaker 1: money going forward. Does that resonate with you? It's so yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think for I mean, you know, you've got tighter

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Speaker 1: monetary policy coming, you have a potential corporate taxing, it's

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Speaker 1: a fiscal policy. Those all things lead to a tough

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe multiples come down a bit. My point is,

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Speaker 1: I think that will be offset by better corporate fundamentals,

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Speaker 1: but it's not going to be a great year. Next

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Speaker 1: year it's going to be tougher. So that's why I

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Speaker 1: was nodding a year. Yeah, this year has been the

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Speaker 1: game has been on, but I think it will get

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Speaker 1: tougher next year. So too right here, as we said today,

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Speaker 1: I think the travel region stocks will bounce big today,

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Speaker 1: but I wouldn't chase them because those are high beta stocks.

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Speaker 1: I'm just not so sure you want to have a

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Speaker 1: lot of risk in your portfolio as you go into

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Speaker 1: next year. Andrew, how much of the tough picture for

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Speaker 1: equities is actually predicated on the bond market and potentially

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Speaker 1: higher yields and higher reel yields. I think that's part

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Speaker 1: of it. You know, the higher rates are are part

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Speaker 1: of it, But I think it's tighter financial conditions really

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Speaker 1: because at the end of the day, you know, really

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Speaker 1: if the ten years at one and a half or

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Speaker 1: two percent, I mean you invert that that pe on

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Speaker 1: the bondom market is still astronomical. Stocks are cheap relp

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Speaker 1: to two bonds. But yeah, I think higher inflation will

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Speaker 1: get you know, the Fed nervous, uh and you know

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Speaker 1: they may not do anything, but the market is going

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Speaker 1: to start to reflect that, and that's that's why the

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Speaker 1: third year is a tough for you. And I think

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Speaker 1: that's going to be the story of next year. Does

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Speaker 1: that mean stay away from growth in two or what

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Speaker 1: do you want to own in a year where it's

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Speaker 1: harder to make money? Yeah? Sure, I think you know.

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Speaker 1: As Again, going back to what Tom said initially, my

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Speaker 1: view is investors don't have enough of these inflation sensitive

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Speaker 1: stocks in their portfolio. Look at energy, it's the avoid

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Speaker 1: it's the unloved sector. So I've learned with energy stocks

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Speaker 1: they keep going up until suddenly everyone gets on board

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Speaker 1: the abolition. That's when it collapses. And I just don't

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Speaker 1: think that the truth there. I see banks, you know,

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Speaker 1: they had big sell offs on Friday. I think that's

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Speaker 1: a better opportunity to be a buyo today than you know,

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Speaker 1: you know, the reopening socks. I don't think you know

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Speaker 1: that those we multiples remain really low. So I think

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Speaker 1: it's in the inflation sensitive over the growth names. But

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Speaker 1: having said that, I don't think we're in a situation

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Speaker 1: like two thousand where you know, the megacat tech stocks

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Speaker 1: are that particularly expensive, the high octane one boy they've

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Speaker 1: really come down, and I think they can continue to

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Speaker 1: come down. But it's really this concept that inflation census

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Speaker 1: socks with remain under owned investors portfolios, because that's not

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Speaker 1: what's worked the last tenders. Are we going to see

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Speaker 1: higher inflation? I mean that's our called. Steve major Over

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Speaker 1: at HSBC was heated this morning that longer term duration

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Speaker 1: yield shows a bet we will not see a persistent,

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Speaker 1: pernicious inflation. Do you agree. I think we're moving into

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Speaker 1: pire like the sixties time where we had higher inflation,

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Speaker 1: higher growth, because that's what it seems to me that's

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Speaker 1: what central bankers want. Uh and so I think this

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Speaker 1: dual mandated the fat of stable prices in maximunon's employment

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Speaker 1: seems to be tipping more towards max similes employment. And

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Speaker 1: that's reminded me a little bit more of the sixties

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Speaker 1: than the two thousand and ten in an environment. The

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Speaker 1: SMP did fine in the sixties. It was until seventies

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Speaker 1: it struggled, but inflation sensuis socks did better. Andrew Slimmon

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Speaker 1: right back to the nineteen sixties and nineteen sixty nine,

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Speaker 1: John and get back because Andrew and I watched Get

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Speaker 1: Back this weekend, the new Beatles documentary. It was phenomenal,

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Speaker 1: love that. It was great right about it. It's how

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Speaker 1: naked it is and they even say while they're filming

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Speaker 1: it that they're not happy that they're filming it. And

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Speaker 1: there's some scenes. One scene where George Harrison talks about

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Speaker 1: Eric Clapton is just absolutely stunning at the time. Andrew Slimmon,

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Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley, where can we watch that film? It's Disney

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Speaker 1: plus one thing we will do, John I and Kylee

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Speaker 1: will probably and highly look at the data this week.

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Speaker 1: We have the right guest for that. Jennifer Lee joins,

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Speaker 1: senior economist at BEMO Capital Markets, who probably and highly

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Speaker 1: always looks at the economic data. What matters this week? Jennifer, Oh,

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Speaker 1: good morning everyone. Um. You know, of course it's going

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Speaker 1: to be all about the jobs data. Um, that's always

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Speaker 1: the highlights almost every single month. But you know what,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to point to the I S M surveys

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Speaker 1: as as two surveys I think are going to be

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Speaker 1: far more interesting than pain rules because that's where you

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Speaker 1: get all those little comments and an inside look basically

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Speaker 1: at what purchasing managers are facing. These days, like so

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Speaker 1: this is like on the ground news, and we know

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Speaker 1: that these supply chain problems they can't last forever. And

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Speaker 1: I think these two surveys are probably going to be

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Speaker 1: the first place that you can probably glean that things

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Speaker 1: are hopefully getting a little bit easier. I was hoping

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Speaker 1: to see that last month that we didn't see. It's

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Speaker 1: a little what the repondent respondents are saying for November.

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Speaker 1: But it was interesting though. I will say that last

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Speaker 1: month I noticed that a couple of them were mentioning

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Speaker 1: some workarounds like because they don't have you don't have X,

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Speaker 1: will then will take why. So I noticed that comment

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Speaker 1: in like the education sector and in wholesale, So people

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Speaker 1: are trying to you know, people are adapting. Our businesses

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Speaker 1: are adapting, and they're figuring out ways to get around

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Speaker 1: these supply chain issues. If the economy is humming in

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Speaker 1: the year in and certainly that's the reports we've received,

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Speaker 1: can you gauge with the first quarter of next year

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Speaker 1: looks like so right now we have a three and

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Speaker 1: a half percent annualized gain for the first quarter. Uh

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Speaker 1: and this will be a little bit slower than than

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Speaker 1: what we're probably going to see for the fourth quarter. Um.

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Speaker 1: But again it's all you know, it's all within within

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Speaker 1: the like the trend, it will still be about, you know,

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Speaker 1: about four percent above your goal levels. So the gains

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Speaker 1: will continue. And this is as we see some um

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Speaker 1: some easing I guess of the supply pressures as as

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Speaker 1: the year begins. To these full Coast Jennifer now have

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Speaker 1: a huge asterisk next to them until we find out

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Speaker 1: a little bit more about this new variant that we're

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Speaker 1: obsessing over over the last week or so, the last

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Speaker 1: few days. Oh, everything I think has an asterix around it.

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Speaker 1: But I think there's like I mean, even the weekend.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I will admit that I was even trying

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Speaker 1: to figure out how to pronounce it um um. But

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Speaker 1: I think we have to figure out still there's so

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Speaker 1: many unknowns about this new variant, just trying to determine

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Speaker 1: how serious it is, you know, and yes, we know

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Speaker 1: that it's easily transmissible, but you know, are we're going

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Speaker 1: to be back to packs? I c use, you know,

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Speaker 1: let's hope not. And so I think that's that's a

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Speaker 1: big question mark as well. I mean, this is the

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Speaker 1: big difference from last time around, Like last year is

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Speaker 1: that you know, we've got around roughly of the population vaccinated,

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Speaker 1: and that's the huge difference that whether the or not

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Speaker 1: you know it will be effective against this particular variant,

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Speaker 1: we will see, but it definitely have helps borrow some

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Speaker 1: of those effects. I would think we've got a way

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Speaker 1: to find out. And the reason I asked that, Jennifer,

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Speaker 1: is you t up the I S M. Typically I

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Speaker 1: would too. I'd say the I S M the onto

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Speaker 1: pay roles are really important week for economic data for

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Speaker 1: many market participants right now. I wonder how sensitive they

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Speaker 1: will be to that incoming data. Given the conversation we're

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Speaker 1: having more broadly about COVID. When you speak to paper

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Speaker 1: in the market right now, how receptive are they to

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Speaker 1: this message that you should focus on the I M

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Speaker 1: S this week because they're focusing on something else. I

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Speaker 1: still think we have to focus in on the data.

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Speaker 1: And a lot of this again is just fear, especially

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Speaker 1: with with with COVID, and you know everyone is it's

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Speaker 1: It's understandable why we would be fearful of something this

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Speaker 1: is of a big unknown U. But I think the

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Speaker 1: data is still matter, especially for the fineral reserve, and

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Speaker 1: as we see you know, price pressure is rising continuously.

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Speaker 1: You know, we're going to expect some sort of a

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Speaker 1: rate hike um in probably in the third quarter of well. Jennifer,

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Speaker 1: speaking of fear and price pressures, we've seen consumer confidence

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Speaker 1: waning at the same time that you're not seeing it

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Speaker 1: translate into consumers spend, spending or consumption. They are still

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Speaker 1: out in the economy, they're buying there maybe using those

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Speaker 1: stored up savings in order to make purchases of items

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Speaker 1: that are more expensive than they were, say six months ago.

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Speaker 1: When do you expect the consumer to start feeling these

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Speaker 1: inflationary forces more. I think they are already um facing it,

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Speaker 1: and that's why we're seeing some you know, some wavering

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Speaker 1: I guess on the consumer confidence front. But at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, I mean, it also depends on

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Speaker 1: you know, on on I hate to say about the

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Speaker 1: time of day and what day of the week that

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Speaker 1: they're being asked, is this this question? But at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, it's all about savings and incomes,

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Speaker 1: and we saw from last week a very solid increase

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Speaker 1: in wages and salaries, which at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: that's what that's really what matters, and having a nice

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Speaker 1: little nest egg put aside for a rainy day, and

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm sure we're gonna have a quick few

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Speaker 1: of those uh in the coming months. So I think

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Speaker 1: that at the end of the day, is just what

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Speaker 1: matters most for consumer confidence. And of course everyone is,

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00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,639
Speaker 1: you know, not happy about all these increasing and increases

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00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 1: in prices, but as long as they have the incomes

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00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 1: to afford it, you know, I think that's you know,

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00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 1: that's the bottom line of that. What do you expect

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00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 1: we'll see from the wage data specifically on Friday, UM so,

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00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:53,199
Speaker 1: we are looking for uh UM an increase about four

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00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 1: tenths on on earnings about five percent year every year

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00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,159
Speaker 1: UM so that's basically in line with the last average

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00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 1: of the last seven month or so. Again steady increases

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Speaker 1: to help you know, pat everyone's wallets and savings accounts,

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00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:09,120
Speaker 1: because the labor market remains very, very type and who

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Speaker 1: knows what's gonna happen with with this, with this new variant,

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00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 1: if it's going to put pressure on people to you know,

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00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 1: perhaps not go back to the to the workforce and

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00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 1: um as quickly as they were thinking about, so then

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00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 1: you're going to see higher wages coming from the businesses

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Speaker 1: to help entice them over. Jennifer Lee always going ahead

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Speaker 1: from you. Thanks for baing with this, Jennifer Lee, that

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00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:27,679
Speaker 1: of Bemil on the Dikes out for the wake ahead.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join

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00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:35,159
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Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on

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Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on

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Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom Keene and this is Bloomberg