Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine is now stretching into
Speaker 2: its third summer. The conflict has claimed the lives of
Speaker 2: hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian troops and has
Speaker 2: cost the US more than one hundred billion dollars in aid. Still,
Speaker 2: there's no end in sight, and so unsurprisingly, support for
Speaker 2: Ukraine was a major topic during last week's presidential debate
Speaker 2: between President Biden and former President Trump. This week, Bloomberg's
Speaker 2: Anne Marie Hordern sat down with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky
Speaker 2: for an exclusive interview. Zelensky took questions, often with the
Speaker 2: help of an interpreter, and spoke about a wide range
Speaker 2: of issues, including the impact the US presidential election could
Speaker 2: have on the war in Ukraine's the answer of how
Speaker 2: this might all unravel will depend on also who's at
Speaker 2: the table from the.
Speaker 1: United States, amongst other things. It might depend on who
Speaker 1: is the president of the US. Yes, that's a fact.
Speaker 2: Zelensky has relied heavily on Biden's support since the war started,
Speaker 2: and was asked about his own observations of the US
Speaker 2: president in recent months have you.
Speaker 1: Seen a deterioration in his health. Oh, yes, the deterioration
Speaker 1: was difficult for me to say about the health.
Speaker 2: President Zelenski also weighed in on former President Trump's claims
Speaker 2: during the debate that he would swiftly end the Russia
Speaker 2: Ukraine War if elected.
Speaker 1: If Trump knows how to end this war, he should
Speaker 1: tell us today.
Speaker 2: Today on the show Bloomberg's exclusive interview with Ukrainian President
Speaker 2: Voladimir Zelensky, we hear the latest on where the conflict stands,
Speaker 2: as well as what President Zelenski says it would take
Speaker 2: to secure a peace deal and a possible end to
Speaker 2: the war, And we speak with Nick Wadams, who leads
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's national security team, about the major takeaways from the
Speaker 2: interview and what he'll be watching for during a major
Speaker 2: meeting of NATO allies in Washington next week. I'm Sarah Holder,
Speaker 2: and this is the big take from Bloomberg News. We
Speaker 2: all heard the US presidential debate last week. One of
Speaker 2: the major issues the two candidates discussed was Ukraine, and
Speaker 2: this comment from former President Trump was particularly striking. I
Speaker 2: will have that war settled between Putin and Zelinsky as
Speaker 2: president elect before I take office on January twentieth, I'll
Speaker 2: have that war settled. Settled? But how Anne Marie Hordern
Speaker 2: asked the Ukrainian president what went through his mind when
Speaker 2: he heard this? President Trump said he'll end the war
Speaker 2: before he's elected.
Speaker 1: Yeah, do you make of that? Let me be frank,
Speaker 1: I'm divided, not pretty close for sam Well. The decision
Speaker 1: is on us public. But let me just have mistaken
Speaker 1: that the winner might be how to end the war.
Speaker 1: He has a plan me as the president of the
Speaker 1: country at war, not theoretical person that a real life person.
Speaker 1: I would like to be prepared. So I would like
Speaker 1: to understand what would it mean to finish war fast?
Speaker 1: If Trump knows how to end this war, he should
Speaker 1: tell us today.
Speaker 2: That was what President Zelenski told Anne Marie earlier this week.
Speaker 2: I put that same question to Bloomberg's head of national
Speaker 2: security coverage, Nick Wadams. Do we have any idea what
Speaker 2: Trump means when he said he'd settle the war?
Speaker 3: The short answer to that is no. No one has
Speaker 3: any real sense for what President Trump's i is are
Speaker 3: or how he would figure out the war in Ukraine.
Speaker 3: There is some speculation around the idea that he would
Speaker 3: essentially pressure Ukraine to give up its claims on a
Speaker 3: lot of the territory in the East that Russia took
Speaker 3: both several years ago but also as part of its
Speaker 3: invasion in February of twenty twenty two. But that's something
Speaker 3: that Ukraine has said it will not accept under any conditions.
Speaker 3: So still a lot of questions about that. But I
Speaker 3: think what you see there is something we saw a
Speaker 3: lot from former President Trump during his administration, which is
Speaker 3: really his belief in himself as a deal maker that
Speaker 3: if he can get the two sides in the room,
Speaker 3: he will just be able to work out a solution.
Speaker 2: On the other hand, Biden indicated during the debate and
Speaker 2: during his campaign that he would hold firm continue supplying
Speaker 2: Ukraine with money. What would a Biden win mean for
Speaker 2: Zelensky and for.
Speaker 3: Putin, Well, I think what you'd see from Biden is
Speaker 3: essentially more of the same. So the real belief that
Speaker 3: they need more money, they need more military assistance, they
Speaker 3: need more and more advanced weapons systems, and that really
Speaker 3: US support is absolutely fundamental to Ukraine's ability to win
Speaker 3: the war, and that's not something they would give up on.
Speaker 3: Of course, the big question there is whether he would
Speaker 3: face any resistance from Congress. That a lot will depend
Speaker 3: on who controls Congress after the election. But you know,
Speaker 3: there's only so much President Biden can do here. He
Speaker 3: will keep up public support for Ukraine, but it's Congress
Speaker 3: that controls the purse strings, and they'll be the ones
Speaker 3: that would have to decide whether to send any more money.
Speaker 3: And that's going to be an increasingly difficult If.
Speaker 2: The US did push Ukraine to settle with Russia under
Speaker 2: a Trump presidency or give up some of its land,
Speaker 2: as Trump may have been hinting at, what choices would
Speaker 2: Ukraine and Zelensky have in that situation.
Speaker 3: This is a real existential issue for Ukraine, and it's
Speaker 3: a great question and one that is being asked quietly
Speaker 3: in the US as well. I think it would make
Speaker 3: that possibility much more real for Ukraine. There's a real
Speaker 3: sort of rock in a hard place situation here right
Speaker 3: now where there is very little chance, at least military
Speaker 3: analysts believe there's very little chance that Ukraine will ever
Speaker 3: get any of the land back, or the majority of
Speaker 3: the land back in the East that Russia took several
Speaker 3: years ago in its initial invasion and would really struggle
Speaker 3: to even get the land back that Russia took in
Speaker 3: February of twenty twenty two. So at the same time,
Speaker 3: Ukraine says there is absolutely no way it's going to
Speaker 3: end the war until it gets that land back, and
Speaker 3: that is a contradiction that no one has really been
Speaker 3: able to solve. So it's really a question of how
Speaker 3: you sort of peck around the edges on that extremely
Speaker 3: challenging question, and so far no one's been able to
Speaker 3: get an answer. But I think what you would see,
Speaker 3: or at least one idea that has been suggested, is
Speaker 3: you essentially say, okay, let's come up with some sort
Speaker 3: of plan that brings not a formal peace, but almost
Speaker 3: an armistice or a ceasefire, a long term, indefinite he's fire,
Speaker 3: almost like what you see between North and South Korea.
Speaker 3: That's something that I've been pointed to by sources, and
Speaker 3: that's just one of the ideas that's been suggested for Ukraine.
Speaker 2: One of the big questions coming out of last week's
Speaker 2: US presidential debate between President Biden and former President Trump
Speaker 2: was not about specific policy, but about President Biden himself
Speaker 2: and his fitness for office. When m Marie asked Zelenski
Speaker 2: about that question. He demurred, have you seen.
Speaker 1: A deterioration in his health? Oh? Yes, the deterioration was
Speaker 1: difficult for me to say about the health biden health
Speaker 1: is difficult for me to say. It would not be
Speaker 1: really ethical from my side.
Speaker 2: Anne Marie followed up, asking Zelensky what he would do
Speaker 2: in Biden's shoes. You're forty six years old. You do
Speaker 2: your job at eighty one.
Speaker 1: Oh wow, I don't know.
Speaker 3: It depends on many things.
Speaker 1: Of course, it depends on your house and who is
Speaker 1: around you, your team and etc. I don't know. I
Speaker 1: don't know. I only can to his good health.
Speaker 2: I asked Nick what he made of that exchange.
Speaker 3: You know, it's an extraordinary moment because it really sums
Speaker 3: up the challenges that Zelenski faces as well as many
Speaker 3: other leaders. I mean, there is no question that Zelenski
Speaker 3: prefers Joe Biden to Donald Trump. Biden has given him
Speaker 3: essentially everything he wanted. Maybe he didn't get it as
Speaker 3: quickly as he wanted, but he has been pushing against
Speaker 3: an open door, and Biden is one of his biggest
Speaker 3: champions in the world. At the same time, there is
Speaker 3: obviously anxiety he and many other European leaders feel about
Speaker 3: President Biden, given his debate performance, given what many of
Speaker 3: them have seen for themselves, the fact that age is
Speaker 3: really slowing Joe Biden down. So how do you, on
Speaker 3: the one hand, say, listen, no, eighty one years old
Speaker 3: may be stretching the outer limits of what's possible for
Speaker 3: someone to run the most powerful country in the world,
Speaker 3: against the fact that Joe Biden is essentially his biggest ally.
Speaker 3: I mean, that's just something that he's not going to
Speaker 3: want to touch, and I thought, I think he saw
Speaker 3: his discomfort there in trying to figure out how to
Speaker 3: get around that question.
Speaker 2: What do these questions about Biden's candidacy mean for Zelensky?
Speaker 2: What would you imagine Zelensky is watching for now?
Speaker 3: Well, the big question for Zelensky is whether Trump or
Speaker 3: Biden is going to win in November, because their policies
Speaker 3: towards Ukraine are just so different, at least in tone,
Speaker 3: and the pressure that he's going to face one is
Speaker 3: going to be direct overt pressure that is essentially, hey,
Speaker 3: you have to get into negotiations now, and there's going
Speaker 3: to be a lot more scrutiny of the aid. He
Speaker 3: may not get any more aid from the US if
Speaker 3: President Trump is elected. That's a very real possibility against
Speaker 3: a s a continuation of a policy that he's liked
Speaker 3: quite a lot from the US. But I think again,
Speaker 3: you're sort of seeing a situation that Zelenski encountered during
Speaker 3: the impeachment inquiry around Donald Trump a few years ago,
Speaker 3: which is essentially a sense of terror that you are
Speaker 3: watching this country that basically holds your fate in its hands,
Speaker 3: and there is absolutely nothing you can do about it.
Speaker 3: I mean, this is the impression we're getting from a
Speaker 3: lot of leaders allied countries around the world, like, oh
Speaker 3: my god, this country that is absolutely integral to our
Speaker 3: own fates is going through a period of an incredible turmoil,
Speaker 3: and all we can do is sit back and watch.
Speaker 2: Coming up after the break, what Zelensky and Ukraine need
Speaker 2: from the international community to get through the end of
Speaker 2: this year and beyond, and how the NATO summit next
Speaker 2: week could affect the future of the war. The Russia
Speaker 2: Ukraine war has been dragging on for years. Ukraine obviously
Speaker 2: is at a disadvantage in terms of size, population and budget.
Speaker 2: In her exclusive interview with The Ukrainian president. Bloomberg's Anne
Speaker 2: Marie Hordern asked Zelenski about how he sees the timeline
Speaker 2: of the war moving forward.
Speaker 1: How long do you think will be in this deadlocks?
Speaker 1: It's not a deadlock problems, it's a problematic situation. At
Speaker 1: deadlock means there's no way out, but a problem can
Speaker 1: be solved.
Speaker 2: Zelensky says, the war is not deadlocked. I asked Nick
Speaker 2: about how that characterization squares with the facts on the ground.
Speaker 3: I think what you're seeing right now is essentially very
Speaker 3: intense fighting over very little ground, and there's not a
Speaker 3: lot of talk any more about major breakthroughs, major counter offensive,
Speaker 3: major strikes that would allow either side to take a
Speaker 3: significant amount of territory. So you are in a situation
Speaker 3: essentially of stalemate, which then provokes the question, which is
Speaker 3: one that Donald Trump was asking. Okay, well, if the
Speaker 3: front lines are not going to change significantly for any
Speaker 3: sort of period in the future, what do we do.
Speaker 3: How do we steer this thing towards some sort of resolution?
Speaker 3: And is there a scenario under which President Zelensky would
Speaker 3: be willing to, at least in terms of the facts
Speaker 3: on the ground, give up control of a particular stretch
Speaker 3: of land potentially forever, and that is really the question
Speaker 3: they're kind of trying to wrestle with. And that's what
Speaker 3: you see the US and European leaders coming under a
Speaker 3: lot more scrutiny for how much are you going to
Speaker 3: spend to essentially maintain stalemate? And that's a question no
Speaker 3: one's really been able to answer.
Speaker 2: How significant is the role of NATO in this war.
Speaker 3: Ukraine could not fight this war alone without NATO's help.
Speaker 3: It's a very tricky line because NATO does not want
Speaker 3: to get involved directly. Ukraine is obviously not a member
Speaker 3: of NATO, and if NATO countries were to be involved
Speaker 3: in the war in terms of actually fighting with Russia,
Speaker 3: there's a lot of fear that that could then lead
Speaker 3: Russia to attack NATO countries such as the Baltics Poland,
Speaker 3: which would then require other NATO countries to come to
Speaker 3: the aid of the country that was attacked, and then boom,
Speaker 3: you have the bigger regional conflict. But in terms of
Speaker 3: serving as the coordinating power for all the weaponry and
Speaker 3: munitions and intelligence and radar and everything technological support that
Speaker 3: goes to Ukraine, NATO is absolutely Central.
Speaker 2: NATO will be meeting next week, and the war between
Speaker 2: Ukraine and Russia and the potential of Ukraine joining the
Speaker 2: Alliance will be top of mind there. Nick, you've been
Speaker 2: preparing to cover the convening. What can we expect from
Speaker 2: those meetings?
Speaker 3: Well, in terms of concrete deliverables, this is a meeting
Speaker 3: that is not really expected to deliver very much. There
Speaker 3: has been a lot of tension around what NATO will
Speaker 3: say in terms of offering Ukraine a path toward membership.
Speaker 3: This is just an absolutely central issue for Zelenski. The
Speaker 3: issue is that NATO does not want to offer a guaranteed, clear,
Speaker 3: step by step path to membership, and there are some people,
Speaker 3: in fact who say they are large parts of NATO that,
Speaker 3: despite not saying so publicly, never want to give NATO
Speaker 3: membership to Ukraine. So what you're going to see is
Speaker 3: language where they offer a quote unquote bridge to membership
Speaker 3: to Ukraine, which is essentially an expression of intent. Okay,
Speaker 3: we want you to be able to have NATO membership
Speaker 3: at some point in the future, but they are not
Speaker 3: going to give Ukraine what it wants, which is a
Speaker 3: real clear, time bound roadmap for getting there. So you
Speaker 3: know this is a meeting that's intended to show strength,
Speaker 3: to show unity, to show support for Ukraine, but given
Speaker 3: that concern around Ukraine's NATO membership, and also questions around
Speaker 3: Biden's age, issues of elections that have gone to the
Speaker 3: far right in France, for example, you have world leaders
Speaker 3: coming in looking pretty hobbled. So it was intended to
Speaker 3: send one message of strength, but it's essentially going to
Speaker 3: be sending the opposite of real uncertainty for Ukraine.
Speaker 2: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder.
Speaker 2: This episode was produced by David Fox and Thomas lu
Speaker 2: It was edited by Stacy Vanicksmith, Darina Krassnalutska, and Piotr Skolimowsky.
Speaker 2: It was mixed by Alex Ugia. It was fact checked
Speaker 2: by Adriana Tapia. Our senior producers are Naomi Shaven and
Speaker 2: Kim Gittelson. Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Nicole beemsterbor is.
Speaker 2: Our executive producer Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts.
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Speaker 2: for listening. We'll be back on Monday.