1 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:05,160 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, the number one show 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan. 3 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:10,560 Speaker 2: All Right, here we go. 4 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 3: Throwing in job. 5 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:17,079 Speaker 2: We're saying it's a catch touch down. 6 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,920 Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 7 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 3: go to win. 8 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 2: God, that's incredible. 9 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 3: Big banks, small banks. 10 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 2: I like to make money. 11 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:36,159 Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate kaba and we are underway. 12 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:40,880 Speaker 2: Hello, everyone, welcome to the Week five XFL Fantasy Flex 13 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,240 Speaker 2: the x Flex on the Action Network podcast. I'm Matthew Friedman, 14 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 2: the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, part of the 15 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 2: Action Network. In this episode, we're breaking down the week 16 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 2: five lines. We're looking at the futures market, we're touching 17 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 2: on our favorite DFS plays, and we're highlighting our favorite bets. 18 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 2: With me as always are Sean Corner and Chris Raybond. 19 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 2: Shawn is our director of Predictive Analyal Increase is a 20 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:05,199 Speaker 2: senior editor and analyst at the Action Network. Gentlemen, let's 21 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 2: jump into it. For week five, we got four games 22 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 2: on the slate. The first one on Saturday, two BM Eastern, 23 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 2: the Seattle Dragons at the Houston Roughnecks. Right now, I'm 24 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 2: looking at FanDuel sportsbook the Roughnecks favored by twelve and 25 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 2: a half points a forty five point five over under Sean. 26 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 2: What do you think of this game? 27 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 4: Yeah, so, I mean originally I had Houston pegged as 28 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 4: a twelve and a half point favorite. I thought we 29 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:32,399 Speaker 4: could possibly see them be as high as, you know, 30 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 4: fifteen and a half or sixteen. So this is right 31 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 4: about where I think it should be. I think you 32 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 4: could make cases here to back Seattle. I think they've 33 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 4: been a live dog now for a couple of weeks. 34 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 4: BJ Daniels, I think there is the QB that will 35 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 4: likely help them going forward. He's a dual threat option. 36 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 4: I think going forward we'll see dual threat qbs excel 37 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 4: in the XFL. They've been able to hang in games. 38 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 4: I said last week, you know, they led at halftime 39 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 4: each of the first three games, and then last week 40 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 4: they put in BJ Daniels at the half and they 41 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 4: actually won the second half thirteen to six. So they've 42 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 4: you know, won a half in all four games. They're 43 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 4: able to hang around. You know, Houston's a different beast. 44 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 4: They're clearly the number one team in the league. But 45 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 4: you know, if BJ Daniels injects some sort of life 46 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,679 Speaker 4: into this offense. I could see them hanging close, but 47 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 4: I think instead of back in Seattle Plus told after 48 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 4: I'm going to do what I did last week with 49 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 4: them and just bet the over on this game at 50 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 4: forty five and a half, I think them sticking around 51 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 4: will just you know, keep the foot on the gas 52 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:35,639 Speaker 4: for the Houston offense. So I think forty five and 53 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 4: a half is a bit too low. I thought it 54 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 4: would actually be closer to forty seven and a half. 55 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 4: So I'll likely be on the over here. And you know, 56 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:45,959 Speaker 4: when it comes to DFS, I think Nick Hawley at 57 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 4: seven point one K he's going to be basically a 58 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:51,839 Speaker 4: free square this week. We finally saw him breakout last 59 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:55,080 Speaker 4: week for a eight catch, ninety seven yard one touchdown game. 60 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 4: He's essentially on the field for every pass play with 61 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 4: Kim Phillips, and then they rotate in guys three through 62 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 4: like eight, so they always have four receivers on the field. 63 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 4: But Nick Holly is, you know, on the field for 64 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,519 Speaker 4: every play. He's way too cheap and he's a great 65 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 4: way to invest in this offense on the chief, but 66 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 4: I think he's gonna be super high owned. I think 67 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 4: the pivot play for the Houston offense would be James 68 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 4: Butler this week. He's six point seven K and I've 69 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 4: typically faded him. He's been able to price he given 70 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 4: his role, but if you do think Houston's going to 71 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 4: blow them out, he could provide some value here. Houston's 72 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 4: been in one score games in the past three weeks, 73 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 4: so Butler hasn't been used as much as we saw 74 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 4: a Week one. But if you look at Week one 75 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 4: when they blew I think it was La out by 76 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 4: twenty points. That's when Butler had his good game. So 77 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 4: he's a sneaky play this week and GPP's only at 78 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 4: six point seven K. 79 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 2: Sean. To your point about BJ Daniels and what he 80 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 2: could do for this offense, He's seventy two hundred on DraftKings, 81 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 2: So provide some value there if you are willing to 82 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 2: pay down and you actually believe in what he can do. 83 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 2: And we have seen that those Houston games tend to 84 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 2: be high score orient affairs. To your point about the 85 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 2: the over, I have this set more at thirteen and 86 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 2: a half, but we're in that same vicinity there, Raybon, 87 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 2: where you with this. 88 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 1: Game my projected line and tako to I say with 89 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 1: the grain of salt because I had a miserable XFL 90 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 1: betting week. I think I went like one in three, 91 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 1: so I've refined the model a little bit, but I 92 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 1: have Euston favored by twelve and a half with the 93 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: highest total of course on the slate. I have it 94 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,160 Speaker 1: pegged at forty eight points, and part of that is 95 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: Seattle I think can score a little bit more potently 96 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:38,919 Speaker 1: with bj Daniels at the helm than with you know, 97 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:43,159 Speaker 1: with silver. So this game is probably the best over 98 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:46,279 Speaker 1: bet on the entire slate. All of the other four 99 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 1: totals I have below forty, So this there's a nine 100 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 1: point difference in my model between this and the next 101 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: highest game. 102 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 3: So like this, like the over, and as far as. 103 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 1: DFS, I think when you look at what happened last week, 104 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:04,559 Speaker 1: you saw, you know, Nick Howey's at a great price. 105 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 3: I also think. 106 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 1: Keenan Reynolds is a guy who his price went down 107 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 1: a significant week after last week, so I think he's 108 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 1: in a good bounce back spot and really just buying 109 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 1: the Seattle offense against Houston. As you mentioned, Freedman teams 110 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,600 Speaker 1: have had to score to keep up with Houston. They 111 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 1: played a lot of close games. We like the over 112 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,720 Speaker 1: in this spot, so I'm looking to invest in the 113 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:30,919 Speaker 1: Seattle offense, and I thought. 114 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:31,679 Speaker 3: About their future. 115 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: I think it's like twenty five to one or something 116 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: because you look at some of the other teams and 117 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 1: quarterback issues. A lot of teams having some quarterback issues. 118 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,159 Speaker 1: The defenders don't look as good anymore. Might open it 119 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: up for one of these teams that started off really 120 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: slowly to sneak in to the playoffs at the end 121 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 1: of the year. 122 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 3: So thinking about that as well. 123 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: But I do love Reynolds in DFS ran ninety six 124 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: percent or more, a ninety five percent or more of 125 00:05:58,160 --> 00:05:59,040 Speaker 1: the routes. 126 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 3: In all four of the games for the Dragons. 127 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 2: Raybun to your point about the over. I'm the donkey 128 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 2: who bet this at forty seven when I saw the 129 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,359 Speaker 2: line released there, and it's just dropped further down, So 130 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 2: I might nibble on it a little bit more now 131 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 2: that it's at forty five and a half. But sometimes 132 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 2: you can be a little too over anxious in betting 133 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:20,920 Speaker 2: these opening lines. But I still think opening lines are 134 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 2: probably better to grab when we have the opportunity. Let's 135 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:28,159 Speaker 2: get to this second game on Saturday, five pm Eastern. 136 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 2: The New York Guardians at the Dallas Renegades. Renegades right 137 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 2: now looking at FanDuel favored by eight. Of course they 138 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:38,279 Speaker 2: will be without starting quarterback Landry Jones, so going to 139 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 2: the backup in Philip Nelson. A thirty seven point over under, 140 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:46,239 Speaker 2: the lowest total on the slate. Believe that the under 141 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,280 Speaker 2: is four and oh in the Renegades four games and 142 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 2: four and oh in the Guardians four games. Sean, do 143 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:53,679 Speaker 2: you have a lean on this game? 144 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 4: I'm probably not touching the total, but in regards to 145 00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 4: the spread, you know, New York was my favorite play 146 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 4: last week, getting seven and a half at home against LA. 147 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 4: I think the market overreacted to LA's blot went over DC, 148 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:07,719 Speaker 4: but I still think New York stinks. They're still my 149 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 4: lowest rated team by a couple points. Even so, I'm 150 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 4: not looking to take him here on the road. When 151 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 4: it comes to Dallas, I think just we have to 152 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 4: decide if there's much of a drop off from Landry 153 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 4: Jones to Philip Nelson. I've been big on Landry Jones 154 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 4: improving the past couple of weeks, but you know I 155 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 4: had Dallas plus three. I actually bit once the land 156 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 4: went up to three, so I was rooting for them, 157 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 4: and the first three drives when he threw an interception 158 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 4: each of the first three drives, it was hard to watch. 159 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 2: So I mean he was essentially. 160 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 4: Jameis Winston, where you know, he was brutal for his 161 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 4: team but great for TFS. So I don't even know 162 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 4: if there's much of a drop off. And Philip Nelson 163 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 4: he looked really bad week one, but I mean he 164 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 4: came in for that last drive and he nearly you know, 165 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 4: helped tie it up or at least cover the spread. 166 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 4: But I forgot who was was it Nagel or Bedet? 167 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 4: You know, they fumbled it on the one yard line, 168 00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 4: so we'd be thinking about Dallas a little bit differently 169 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 4: had he They just scored there. So I think the 170 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 4: way Dallas is built, even if Philip Nelson is a 171 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 4: drop off, they have a strong running game, pretty good defense. 172 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 4: PFF grades m third, and we have to give him credit. 173 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 4: They held Houston in twenty seven points despite the minus 174 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 4: four turnover margin. It was actually incredible that Houston wasn't 175 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 4: able to capitalize on those first three interceptions and go 176 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 4: up by you know, twenty points. So I think the 177 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 4: defense is pretty good, solid running games, so I think 178 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 4: they're able to cover in a spot like this, as 179 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 4: you know, a touchdown favorite against a team like New York, 180 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 4: who I still don't think the offense is good enough 181 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 4: to compete, so I'll probably be on Dallas here. Hopefully 182 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:39,199 Speaker 4: the line will go down to like minus seven or something, 183 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,680 Speaker 4: but I do think, you know, the value is gonna 184 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:43,560 Speaker 4: be on the favorite here, and then when it comes 185 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 4: to DFS, I think Philt Nelson he's probably the best 186 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 4: value quarterback. 187 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:49,559 Speaker 3: I still think PJ. 188 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 4: Walker is the best overall QB play, even factoring and price, 189 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 4: but you know he's gonna take over this arid offense. 190 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 4: Probably not as fantasy good as Landry, but you know 191 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:01,560 Speaker 4: he's going to be able to put up some points 192 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:03,959 Speaker 4: at this price. And you know, he did remind me 193 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 4: a little bit of Drew Brees, and it turns out 194 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 4: he does emulate his game after Drew Brees, so I'm 195 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 4: not comparing him to Breeze, but he does have that 196 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 4: pedigree of a guy that I think can take over 197 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:15,960 Speaker 4: the rains this weekend and put up decent numbers at 198 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 4: this price. 199 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, Dallas has that bin, but don't break defense where 200 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 2: you know, with the exception of the Roughnecks, who score 201 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 2: on everyone, they have held opponents to you know, pretty 202 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 2: paltry points differentials. And even the Roughnecks last week they 203 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 2: scored twenty seven points. I believe that's the fewest points 204 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 2: they've scored all season. So only two interceptions on the season, 205 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 2: only six sacks for the season. You know, both of 206 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 2: those are near the bottom of the league. But they 207 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 2: just don't give up a lot of points whenever they 208 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 2: get in the red zone. So an interesting situation there 209 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 2: for the Renegades and their defense. Raybond, where are you 210 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 2: with this game? 211 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:55,080 Speaker 1: My favorite pick in this game is actually the under. 212 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: I have this set as the lowest total on the 213 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 1: board by pretty far. 214 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:03,680 Speaker 3: I have it way down at thirty two. 215 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 1: And I do think that Dallas has some causes for 216 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: concern with Landry Jones out of the lineup. 217 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 3: He was hot and cold, volatile performer, but. 218 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: He would he was able to get the ball down 219 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: the field. And Nelson I didn't like what I saw 220 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 1: for him in week one, and just Dallas because they 221 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: play good defense, I think that they are going to 222 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 1: end up keeping this game pretty well. 223 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 3: Scoring so the media in total in the XFL. 224 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 1: Now we have four weeks of data, so we're getting 225 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: there is thirty eight and a half points. 226 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 3: And both of these teams, if you. 227 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: Look at the numbers, Dallas games have averaged thirty seven 228 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 1: point five combined points per game, and that is you know, 229 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 1: with that fifteen to nine game in Week one, and 230 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 1: that's the kind of game that you could see again, 231 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 1: you know, given the circumstances without Landry. And then for 232 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: New York Guardians games have also averaged the same amount 233 00:10:59,920 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 1: of point. So both of them averaged under the total. 234 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 1: Dallas I think can play strong d so I'm heavy 235 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: on the under for this one. In terms of DFS, 236 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:14,079 Speaker 1: is probably obviously my least favorite. If I'm looking at 237 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: somebody in DFS, Donald Parham still is a guy who 238 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 1: sticks out. He's averaging nineteen point one DraftKings points per game. 239 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 1: I think a guy like Philip Nelson probably going to 240 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: rely on the team's best receiver. It was a little 241 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:32,560 Speaker 1: concerning that Parm's worst yardage output was in Week one, 242 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:34,679 Speaker 1: where he had only. 243 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,199 Speaker 3: Six targets, four catches forty yards. 244 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 1: He also played the BattleHawks defense, which I think is 245 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 1: a pretty strong defense, so you know the fact that 246 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:45,560 Speaker 1: he still was in his general range and has been 247 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:48,719 Speaker 1: improving since that, has been running more routes. He got 248 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 1: up to ninety six percent last week. Part of that 249 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 1: could have been backup tight end Sean Price ended up 250 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: being a scratch, but I think Parham is still the 251 00:11:56,400 --> 00:11:57,559 Speaker 1: guy I'm looking for in his game. 252 00:11:57,600 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 2: And then of. 253 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: Course loving the running backs for the Rennegades because this 254 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:04,960 Speaker 1: is a game where it feels like they're going to 255 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: wean on that run game in those Camart's painting Lance 256 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: Dunbar even more, they've been heavily featuring those guys. Artist 257 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 1: paying at sixteen point two draftings points per game, Dunbar 258 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 1: at thirteen point nine. I think both of them are 259 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 1: strong values in this game. Probably lean toward Artist Paying, 260 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 1: but you can make a case for either of them 261 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:27,959 Speaker 1: because I think they'll be involved through the air and 262 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: on the ground in a game where Dallas is missing 263 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 1: this quarterback. 264 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 2: All right, let's get to the third game of the weekend. 265 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 2: We've got the Saint Louis BattleHawks three and a half 266 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 2: point favorites on the road at the DC Defenders a 267 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 2: thirty nine point over under. This line opened at two 268 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 2: and a half and has been bets at three and 269 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 2: a half corner. I think some people were probably expecting 270 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 2: this line to be even higher, just given that the 271 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 2: BattleHawks have looked like one of the best teams in 272 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:58,840 Speaker 2: the league. Where are you setting this line? 273 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, this is probably the toughest game of the week 274 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 4: to cap. I had d C at like plus two 275 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 4: and a half at home. I wasn't surprised to see 276 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 4: it go up to three and a half, but d 277 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 4: C probably looked like, you know, if not a top 278 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 4: two team, the best team in the first two weeks, 279 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:16,439 Speaker 4: and then the last two weeks they've looked like. 280 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 3: The worst team by far. 281 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:19,839 Speaker 4: So it's a really interesting situation. 282 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:20,200 Speaker 2: You know. 283 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 4: Do you degrade the last two weeks heavily or do 284 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 4: we kind of ignore it? 285 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 3: I don't know. 286 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:28,439 Speaker 4: And I think this is a game where I think 287 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 4: the values on DC here they played back to back 288 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 4: games on the road in Saint Louis, played back to 289 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 4: back games at home, so I think we might be 290 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 4: a perception of them, could be an over adjustment both ways. 291 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 4: But still I think knowing the values on DC plus 292 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 4: three and a half, it still feels like gambling to me, 293 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:47,959 Speaker 4: and I don't like gambling, So it's probably a game 294 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 4: I'm going to stay away from where I think, you 295 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 4: know the values on DC, but I can't really pull 296 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 4: the trigger. There's just something about it. I can't I 297 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 4: can't get behind. And then for DFS, I think I'd 298 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 4: rather just invest and DeAndre Tompkins for a third straight week. 299 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 4: He's busted two straight weeks. You know, he was sixty 300 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 4: percent GPPs in week three and then thirty percent last week. 301 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 4: He ended up going catch lists on three targets, but 302 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 4: he was wide open for like a six yard touchdown. 303 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 4: Cardell just overthrew him. So if you were able to 304 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 4: connect on that, you know who knows. But he's four 305 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 4: point nine k ably this week. So again it's one 306 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 4: of those things where his ownership's gonna fall to like 307 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 4: ten to fifteen percent, but the underlying usage is there, 308 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 4: and if Cardell does get it together this week, he 309 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 4: could be a good GPP play again. This is this 310 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 4: is just something where the fact that he's gonna be 311 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 4: low owned and cheaper, I think I'm gonna stay on 312 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 4: the Tompkins train because you know, he's killed me last 313 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 4: the past two weeks. But it's gonna it's gonna pay 314 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 4: off at some point. 315 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 2: Ramon, where are you with this game? 316 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 1: I like say I put it that way. I think 317 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: that the number is a little small. I bet it 318 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: at two and a half as well. I also took 319 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 1: Saint Louis on the money line. I'm scared now because 320 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 1: Sean had the legendary call last week with the the Guardians. 321 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: So I do understand that there is inherent recency bias, 322 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 1: and I think all three of us would probably agree 323 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 1: with that. As we get more data, the home field 324 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 1: advantage has kind of stuck out as something that has become. 325 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 3: Pretty important in this league. 326 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 1: That being said, a couple of things point me toward 327 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 1: Saint Louis. The first thing is Saint Louis is one 328 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 1: of the few teams that's been consistently good on the road. 329 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 1: They got that win over Dallas in Week one, fifteen 330 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 1: to nine, and then they could have won that game 331 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 1: against Houston, the best team in the league on the 332 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 1: road if the rest don't miss this an off sides 333 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 1: call and Tamouth thinks he has a free play, ends 334 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: up throwing it downfield and gets picked off, and that 335 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: changed the whole complexion of the game. So we could 336 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 1: be talking about undefeated Saint Louis team with two road 337 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 1: wins at this point as well, So I still think 338 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: Saint Louis is the better team here. And then for 339 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: DC being aware that there is again inherent recency bias 340 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 1: with DC just playing like complete, boiled, steamed, baked garbage 341 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 1: over these past two weeks. I'm looking at their wins 342 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: there in the first couple of weeks, and both of 343 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 1: those wins came against teams that I have rated at 344 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 1: the bottom of the league. So in Week one they 345 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 1: played Seattle, Week two they play New York, and those 346 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 1: two teams are actually two of the worst rated teams 347 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 1: that I think we pretty much consensus wise, two of 348 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: the worst rated teams in the league. DC in terms 349 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: of Pro Football Focus has the next to last run defense, 350 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: and they are rated last at tackling. They're number four 351 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 1: in terms of coverage. So I think this could be 352 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 1: a good spot for Saint Louis to run the football 353 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 1: coming on the road, try not to let Cardeo rekindle 354 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 1: the magic. So I'm looking at at Matt Jones, Kristin, 355 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 1: Michael More, Matt Jones, maybe a little Keith Ford, but 356 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 1: it's been hard to kind of figure out some these 357 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 1: running back rotations outside of Dallas. But I think Matt 358 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:05,239 Speaker 1: Jones still the cleer guy in Saint Louis, so I 359 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:07,399 Speaker 1: like him at seventy three hundred. Is kind of a 360 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 1: contrarian running back play like Pearsonnell, who, even running less 361 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 1: routes over these past couple of weeks, has just been 362 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 1: a target hug when he's on the field, and there's 363 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 1: just not a lot of guys consistently producing. So I'm 364 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:24,119 Speaker 1: willing to kind of discount the fact that Pearsonnell is 365 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 1: running fewer routes because he's been under fifty percent, been 366 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 1: at forty five and forty seven percent he's last two weeks, 367 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: and yet his target chairs are still nineteen percent and 368 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,720 Speaker 1: twenty one percent, and for the season he's right around 369 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 1: twenty three percent, so one of the highest in the league. 370 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 1: So still like the morning piersonnel for Saint Louis, and 371 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 1: like Saint Louis to continue to perform well on the road. 372 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 4: That was a great call on the I didn't think 373 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 4: of that, but the defender's tackling was so abysmal in 374 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 4: that game. They just couldn't tackle anybody I petitioned. They 375 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 4: need to change their team name from the defenders of 376 00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 4: something else. 377 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,320 Speaker 3: It was there, Yeah, like the opposite of that. 378 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, right, final game was slate. We have the Tampa 379 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 2: Bay Vipers at the LA Wildcats. The Vipers are now 380 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 2: one and a half point underdogs. They actually opened as 381 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 2: one and a half point favorites, but that quickly got 382 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:17,399 Speaker 2: bet to the other side. We have an over under 383 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 2: of forty sean. Where are you with this game? 384 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 3: I have LA minus four here. 385 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,719 Speaker 4: I think both teams kind of saw, you know, their 386 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 4: DC destruction game kind of move them a little too 387 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 4: much the next week, and I think that's happening with 388 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 4: Tampa Bay here. LA did look out of synk last week, 389 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 4: but they had to fly east. You know, they were 390 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 4: without Spruce. I think we'll have to wait and see 391 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 4: if Spruce in a return this week. But you know, 392 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 4: they've only had one week where they have had Josh Johnson, 393 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:48,159 Speaker 4: Trey McBride and Nelson Spruce active, and that was the 394 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:50,400 Speaker 4: game they put up the most points by any team 395 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 4: this year. I think McBride and Spruce could be the 396 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 4: best one two wide receiver combo in the league. And 397 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 4: Josh Johnson himself, I mean he miss week one to 398 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 4: the thigh injury, he's been limited in practice. He hasn't 399 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:02,719 Speaker 4: looked as mobile, and we all know that he's a 400 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 4: great rushing QB. So I think he's going to only 401 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 4: get better as he gets his die injury. It gets 402 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 4: closer one hundred percent. So I think LA is a 403 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 4: team that's on the rise despite the bad performance last 404 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 4: week in New York. So I think getting them minus 405 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 4: one and a half here there's some value there. And 406 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:22,000 Speaker 4: then you know, when it comes to DFS, if Spruce 407 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 4: is out again, Trey McBride is free square again this week. 408 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 4: He's well worth the price for a more contrarian pivot 409 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 4: on this game. I think Jalen Tolliver and Reeseworn, they're 410 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:35,120 Speaker 4: both in the mid five point five k range. Everyone's 411 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 4: going to kind of flock to Dan Williams, who sort 412 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:39,879 Speaker 4: of went off last week for seven catches seventy two yards. 413 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 4: But really all three wide receivers in this offense are 414 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 4: pretty interchangeable, so you know, just taking the cheaper guys 415 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,640 Speaker 4: this week, I think is a way to invest. If 416 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 4: you think the Tampa Bay offense is a team you 417 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 4: will invest in. Tolliver and rees Hoorn are cheaper options. 418 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 4: I think I can get behind in GPPs only McBride 419 00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 4: is really intriguing. In weak he had one hundred and 420 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,680 Speaker 4: sixty nine air yards and by the way, one hundred 421 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:07,720 Speaker 4: and sixty nine last week was the high for the slate. 422 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,640 Speaker 4: In Week three he had one hundred and eighty, which 423 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 4: was number two, behind only Cam Phillips. So he is 424 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,880 Speaker 4: being targeted heavily and down the field quite a bit 425 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 4: where he can use his speed, use his size really 426 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,920 Speaker 4: to exploit defenders he's going against. So a great situation 427 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 4: for him, Definitely intriguing for DFS. Raybond, what do you 428 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:28,160 Speaker 4: think of this game? 429 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I bet the Wildcats. They're actually my 430 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 1: fourth highest rated team after Houston, Saint Louis and Dallas, 431 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:40,200 Speaker 1: and a lot of that is number one. They made 432 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 1: some changes after Week one, both on defense and with 433 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 1: getting Josh quarterback Josh Johnson back, which I think, you know, 434 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 1: you have to factor that in to a certain extent, 435 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:51,400 Speaker 1: and then you know. 436 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,439 Speaker 3: You look at some of the teams that. 437 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,680 Speaker 1: They played, you know, in that stretch where they were 438 00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 1: still kind of getting their footing under them, and played 439 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 1: Houston and we won, played a Dallas at you know, 440 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 1: getting Lanrew Jones back in week two. Yeah, they played 441 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 1: DC in New York these past couple weeks and it 442 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 1: didn't look good against New York. But you know, given 443 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:11,959 Speaker 1: the you know, strength to schedule or whatever, it's not 444 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 1: really a big knock to lose by three across the 445 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: country on the road to the Guardians. I think everyone, 446 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 1: as Sean pointed out, it's kind of overreacting week to week, 447 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 1: But I don't really have that dinging LA as far 448 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 1: as you know their team powerranking it only they only 449 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,919 Speaker 1: lost for me two tenths of a point for that 450 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 1: three point loss in New York, and now you have 451 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:36,440 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay having to go all the way to LA. 452 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,160 Speaker 1: So I think that it is a good bounce back 453 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 1: spot to buy back on LA. And I also have 454 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:46,679 Speaker 1: LA rated as the team with the second highest total 455 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 1: on a neutral field. So this game I have two 456 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 1: games for me featured top five quarterbacks, one of them 457 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 1: Philip Walker and bj Daniels I haven't ranked number one 458 00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,199 Speaker 1: and number four in that Houston Seattle game, and then 459 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 1: in this game it's Josh Johnson number three and Cornelius 460 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 1: I have at number five. 461 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,400 Speaker 3: So I think this game could be some sneaky offense. 462 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 1: I think it's a good DFS stacking option if you 463 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,360 Speaker 1: want to pivot away from the roughnext game and try 464 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 1: to find a game that could be the highest scoring 465 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 1: game of the week. 466 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:20,639 Speaker 2: That Cornelius is one of the top five quarterbacks in 467 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:24,120 Speaker 2: the XFL is kind of a sad statement, but that 468 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 2: is where we are. Gentlemen, speaking of Cornelis and the Vipers, 469 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 2: I think this is a good point to transition into 470 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 2: the futures market. If you look right now at I'm 471 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 2: looking specifically at FANDUL, you have the Houston Roughnecks no 472 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,359 Speaker 2: surprise at the top of the board plus one eighty five, 473 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 2: the Saint Louis BattleHawks, which you two weeks ago could 474 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 2: have gotten at ten to one. They are now plus 475 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:48,680 Speaker 2: three twenty and then from there DC Defenders plus four seventy, 476 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 2: the Dallas Renegades six to one, the Guardians nine to one, 477 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 2: Wildcats twelve to one, Vipers twenty to one, Seattle Dragons 478 00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 2: twenty five to one. Rayvond you mentioned the Dragons earlier. 479 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 2: Twenty five to one is a team that catches your eye. 480 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 2: I'm looking at the Vipers at twenty to one, and 481 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 2: I kind of can't believe I'm saying that, but we 482 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 2: are looking at a situation where, you know, if they win, 483 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 2: if they are able to get the win this week, 484 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 2: and we you know, kind of assume that the DC 485 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 2: Defenders maybe they lose to the BattleHawks. The BattleHawks are 486 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 2: you know, clearly at that point the top team in 487 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 2: the East. But then after that we would have potentially 488 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,639 Speaker 2: a three way tie between the Defenders, the Guardians, and 489 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 2: the Vipers at two and three with five games left, 490 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 2: two teams are going to make it into the playoffs 491 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,720 Speaker 2: from the East. You know, it could really be any 492 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 2: of those three teams that could get there. And then 493 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:39,880 Speaker 2: you know, once you're in the playoffs, I mean, really 494 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 2: kind of anything can happen. Guys, do you think there's 495 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 2: some value on the Vipers at twenty to one? 496 00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 3: Absolutely. 497 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 1: That's a great point when you start looking up and 498 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 1: down a schedule and you realize the path to the 499 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 1: playoffs for some of these teams, and then you think 500 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:57,359 Speaker 1: about how we started the year thinking, okay, Dallas, New York, 501 00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,680 Speaker 1: Houston and d like, we had a lot of teams 502 00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:00,200 Speaker 1: that we thought. 503 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 3: Were good and maybe three bad teams or not. 504 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,359 Speaker 1: You know, Seattle was kind of at the bottom of 505 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 1: that list, but it wasn't exactly clear in maybe LA, 506 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:10,000 Speaker 1: and now it seems like a lot more teams are 507 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 1: closer to the middle of the pack. The only truly 508 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:16,959 Speaker 1: dominant team I think has you can say, is Houston, 509 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,680 Speaker 1: and even they've been in some closer close calls these 510 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,159 Speaker 1: last couple of weeks. So you know, I have a 511 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 1: lot of these teams rated close pretty close together, especially 512 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 1: in that midpack range. And with a team Mike Dallas 513 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 1: losing its starting quarterback could easily get weakend. The DC 514 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,400 Speaker 1: defenders who we thought were good not quite as good, 515 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,919 Speaker 1: perhaps just home field or strength to schedule thing with 516 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: teams that have since gotten better. It's a situation where 517 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,880 Speaker 1: I think it's wide open. This is a good week. Actually, 518 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,400 Speaker 1: you know, last couple of weeks wasn't as great after 519 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 1: that BattleHawks, you know call with the ten to one 520 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:54,680 Speaker 1: because a lot of the better teams are playing games 521 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 1: we thought they could win. But now with everything that's 522 00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: gone on, I think there is some value pretty much 523 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 1: through the bottom of the field. I think you want 524 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,880 Speaker 1: to stay away from those top two or three teams 525 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 1: and focus on teams like the Vipers in Seattle, Dragons, 526 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,679 Speaker 1: you know, Guardians, teams like that that have a path 527 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:12,720 Speaker 1: to the playoffs. 528 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:14,679 Speaker 2: Sean anything stand out to you right now in the 529 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,680 Speaker 2: features market, Rebond mentioned it, But I think the thing 530 00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:19,119 Speaker 2: to do is go back to week three. 531 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,920 Speaker 4: We all said at Saint Louis ten to one, not 532 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:23,560 Speaker 4: as much money as you can on that, and just 533 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 4: let it ride. I think right now I would agree 534 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 4: with most of these lines. I can't imagine anybody taking 535 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 4: the DC Defenders at less than five to one right now, 536 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 4: so that stands out as a bad line. But you know, 537 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,199 Speaker 4: Houston's by far the best team, but I keep mentioning 538 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 4: it that and PJ. Walker is by far the MVP, 539 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:44,399 Speaker 4: but he is taking one or two massive hits a game. 540 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 4: You know, he dives head first, he tackled a defender 541 00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:49,760 Speaker 4: like they're going to have to tell him to calm 542 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 4: him down a little bit. Because he is way too 543 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,640 Speaker 4: valuable to be taking hits like that. So I wouldn't 544 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 4: invest in Houston long term like this. Instead, I would 545 00:25:57,600 --> 00:25:59,640 Speaker 4: just bet Houston week to week because I'm a little 546 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 4: bit worried about how Walker is just you know, putting 547 00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,679 Speaker 4: his body up there. He's he's that valuable. If you 548 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 4: were to miss any time, Houston would be, you know, 549 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 4: just an average team. So I'm staying away from the 550 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 4: futures market this week, but and just letting Saint Louis 551 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 4: ten to one write it out, all. 552 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 2: Right, guys, favorite bet for the slate, Sean, I want 553 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 2: to start with you out of the you know, the sides, 554 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,200 Speaker 2: the totals, anyway that you were leaning for week five, 555 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:23,920 Speaker 2: your favorite bet of the week. 556 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,320 Speaker 4: I was all in fading them last week, but this 557 00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 4: week I'm all over LA. I actually got them when 558 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 4: it opened. I think it was plus one and a half, 559 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:33,959 Speaker 4: but they're one at minus one and a half now. 560 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:35,919 Speaker 4: I still think that's a good number. I think they 561 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 4: should be favored, just over a field goal here. Again, 562 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,399 Speaker 4: I think this is the market overreacting to a team 563 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,359 Speaker 4: blowing out d C. Last week. That was Campa Bay. 564 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,719 Speaker 4: Tama Bay is coming off back to back home games. 565 00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:49,440 Speaker 4: LA just played in New York and now they're coming 566 00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,360 Speaker 4: play here in LA. I'm gonna be at the game, 567 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 4: so I'm hoping I can give good juju and help 568 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 4: them cover the spread. 569 00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,960 Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm all in on LA. I bet them 570 00:26:58,080 --> 00:26:58,919 Speaker 3: up to minus two