1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,880 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action awesome. 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: All right. 3 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 2: Here we go there throwing into spect I'm saying it's 4 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 2: a catch touch down. 5 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 6 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:20,279 Speaker 3: go to wind. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 4: That's incredible. 8 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 3: Big banks, all banks. I like to make money. All right, 9 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 3: this is the ultimate kabak if. 10 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 4: You want to pack and we are underway. Welcome into 11 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:38,559 Speaker 4: the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel. This is your 12 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 4: NFL Week ten Best Bets episode. I'm your host, Brendan 13 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:46,200 Speaker 4: glas Sheen, joined by three Action Network experts who will 14 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 4: be going through their three favorite bets for the upcoming 15 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 4: Week ten Sunday Monday slate. As a reminder, you can 16 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 4: follow along the pod on the Action app by following 17 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 4: our account that logs the picks from the show Action 18 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 4: Network NFL Picks. It also includes the Sunday six pack 19 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 4: from Rebond and Stuckey and these best bets that we're 20 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 4: about to dish out six and three and Week nine 21 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 4: forty six, thirty three and two. Record for the season, 22 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 4: Anthony Dubundo shout out to you again, nice work last week. 23 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:20,040 Speaker 4: Coming in for Luke Swayin goes three and oh Today 24 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 4: Luke is back. Luke, good to see you again. Glad 25 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:23,960 Speaker 4: to have you back. 26 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 3: I mean, unless you don't do what Dubundo did QB controversy. 27 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 4: Brandon Anderson as always is here and Jill, Gallant and 28 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 4: Hill will be with you again Sunday for the Touchdown 29 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 4: Show Sunday morning, ten thirty Eastern. He's with you all 30 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:41,320 Speaker 4: NFL season live on the Action app, Action Network HQ, 31 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:46,040 Speaker 4: on Twitter, and on YouTube. So four bye weeks to 32 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 4: account for this week Bengals, Ravens, Patriots and Jets. It's repetitive, 33 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 4: but we have to keep repeating it. Underdog rolling fifty 34 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 4: seven percent clip. That would be the same for road 35 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 4: underdogs this season. Favorites of seven or more. We see 36 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 4: more and more big numbers as the year goes on, 37 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 4: because we've identified who kind of stinks. Favorites of seven 38 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:09,359 Speaker 4: points or more. They're winning twenty one to nine and 39 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 4: one straight up against the spread, hitting at just a 40 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 4: thirty five percent clip at eleven and twenty against the spread. 41 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:19,119 Speaker 4: We have three of those situations this week with the Chiefs, Niners, 42 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 4: and Eagles. It is the least profitable start for touchdown 43 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:27,800 Speaker 4: favorites since twenty fifteen. Unders hitting at ji of sixty percent, 44 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 4: and if you were a one hundred dollars better and 45 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 4: you bet all unders this season, you'd be up close 46 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 4: to two thousand dollars. It's the best start for the 47 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 4: under through nine games in the last two decades. With 48 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 4: all that being said, if we get to the best bets, 49 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 4: we describe the slate in a sentence or less. Brandon 50 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:46,079 Speaker 4: Anderson Week ten, what comes to mind? 51 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 3: We are exactly halfway into the new season. We've played 52 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 3: exactly half of the games. It is time to let 53 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 3: go of your priors, all those preseason thoughts Rams, Packers, Bucks, 54 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 3: get trust what we've seen so far. 55 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,919 Speaker 5: Fair enough, Joe Glot Right now, this is the first 56 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 5: week since Week one we've had nine or more quarterbacks 57 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 5: with plus odds to throw an interception this week, So 58 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 5: it's going to be very interesting to see if some 59 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 5: of these quarterbacks are going to keep it clean this week. 60 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:14,519 Speaker 4: Oh you love this sound of that? I can just tell. 61 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 4: And Luke Week ten, what do you think? 62 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 1: It's just there a lot of quarterback injuries going to 63 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: this weekend, Like the MVP favorite Josh Allen and Stafford 64 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 1: asking questionis Kyler as a concussion I can't remember a 65 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 1: slate that's had so many injury questions to top tier quarterbacks. 66 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:34,079 Speaker 4: Ok, our first bat bet of the day will come 67 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 4: from Brandon Anderson. As a reminder, these guys have not 68 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 4: consulted one another before this record, so we may have overlap, 69 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 4: we may have convidictions. That's what makes this fun. So 70 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 4: without further ado, Brandon Anderson Week ten best bet number one. 71 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 3: You already know we're going international, guys, Seattle Island. We're 72 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 3: heading in Munich Seattle Seahawks plus two and a half 73 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 3: against the Tampa Bay Buccaneer. There's still some threes out 74 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 3: there if you can grab it. Guys, Seattle is good. 75 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 3: I talked about it just a second ago. Let go 76 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 3: of the priors, and I think Seattle is a good 77 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 3: kind of the season either literally, on this podcast, I 78 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 3: recommended betting for Seattle have the worst record in the NFL. 79 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 3: This is a long time ago. We made that money 80 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 3: up and then some because Seattle is good. The Buccaneers 81 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,840 Speaker 3: are not good. Bucks have four wins the entire season. 82 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 3: They beat the Cowboys, the Saints, and the Rams and 83 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 3: games where they had one touchdown in those games. They 84 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 3: beat the Falcons, thanks to a nice referee decision, a 85 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:35,280 Speaker 3: little lofty flag for Tom Brady. They're own four when 86 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 3: they allow twenty or more points. Seattle has four wins 87 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 3: by double digits the last four weeks. They're just crushing 88 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 3: teams right now. They also let Atlanta with under a 89 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 3: minute left. They led the Saints with five minutes left. 90 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 3: They're that close to being eight and one right now. 91 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 3: Maybe then they get a little bit of respect. Last 92 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:58,599 Speaker 3: five games, the Seahawks are fourth in overall DBA. They're 93 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 3: fourth in defense. Talked early on in Seattle Island when 94 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:05,160 Speaker 3: we were still establishing our scent about how good the 95 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:07,600 Speaker 3: offense was, but man, the defense was not good. Well, 96 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 3: I think the defense cut up and maybe pass them by. 97 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 3: There's still fourth on offense for the season. Fourth on 98 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 3: all the things is pretty good. Guys. There's thirty two 99 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 3: teams and fourth is very strong. The Buccaneers offense terrible 100 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 3: away from home. Jack Barrett out, I think is another 101 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 3: blow for this defense. And look, I think Pete Carroll 102 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,720 Speaker 3: loves that the Seahawks are still underdogs here. Pee Carroll, 103 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 3: I think is rushing this underdog role. You just you 104 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:37,840 Speaker 3: look at a Seahawks game and you see guys that 105 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 3: have each other's backs. You see guys smiling, and you 106 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 3: make a mistake, they go right back to that guy, 107 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 3: Tyler Lockett. You dropped a big play. Let's get you 108 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:47,039 Speaker 3: the game winning top down and get it right back. 109 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 3: That's the sort of like college Mojio thing that Peek 110 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 3: Carroll has done so well. Hey, you know what team 111 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 3: got like that? The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They hate each other. 112 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 3: They are longing for the like they're watching DVDs of 113 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 3: the good Old Day. Is in the Super Bowl Championship. 114 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 3: Tom is not up for a flight to Munich and 115 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 3: hanging out with the guys on the long play like 116 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 3: this is gonna be a terrible road trip for them. 117 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 3: I don't see it. I don't understand why the Bucks 118 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 3: our favorites here. We know that all the numbers, Pete 119 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 3: Carroll underdog, Gino Smith underdog, I've said every week, so 120 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 3: we need to go there again. But guys, neutral field, 121 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 3: So take the better team, sales, a better offense, better defense, 122 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 3: are blocking, better running, better passing, amount of fingers, better health, 123 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 3: better coach, and guess what better quarterback? Give me Gino Smith, 124 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:34,479 Speaker 3: not Tom Brady. Give me saddle Island plus two and half. 125 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 4: Gino number one in the NFL in completion percentage, number 126 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 4: six in the NFL in passing yards. Yes, he has 127 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 4: had and he's the front runner, by the way to 128 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 4: win Comeback Player of the Year. He is the leader 129 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,280 Speaker 4: as of now entering this week, Saquon the only man 130 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 4: behind him Gino Smith. What a story. He's been quite 131 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 4: the story in twenty twenty two, Jill, your first pick 132 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:57,599 Speaker 4: Week ten. 133 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 2: All right, so we're gonna look at Colts Ray and 134 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 2: we're gonna take under forty one and a half and 135 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 2: we're gonna start with Sam Enger. I'm not all them 136 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 2: Ellinger yet, he's got to win a game before I 137 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 2: pronounced his name properly and uh, but he's been pretty gross, man, 138 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 2: like three hundred and four passing yards and two starts, 139 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 2: and I know, facing the Patriots on the road, you 140 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 2: got to take some of these stats with a grain 141 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 2: of salt, But I mean, over fourteen on third down 142 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 2: just ain't it. And since the Jonathan Taylor injury, now 143 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 2: Taylor is expected to come back, he's starting to practice. 144 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 2: I don't think it's gonna matter either way, but the 145 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 2: Colts offense has just sunk to another. 146 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 3: Level like this season. 147 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 2: Outside of that miraculous comeback against the Jaguars, they averaged 148 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 2: ten point eight points per game like the and for me, 149 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:42,239 Speaker 2: the only positive that you could go away from the Colts, 150 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 2: and they kind of showed this last week against the Patriots. 151 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 2: Their run defense is still really solid. One hundred and 152 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 2: six rush yards just allowed at the last two games. 153 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 2: And I mean even when they faced Derick Henry the 154 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 2: last game. Yes he did rush for one hundred and 155 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 2: thirty yards, but he had to rush like thirty two 156 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 2: times to do it. And that's gonna have to make 157 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 2: Carrett Carr have to pass more, where if Josh Jacobs 158 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 2: can't really be as effective, and he's been pretty dreadful lately. 159 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 2: Man Like I know that we saw those two touchdowns 160 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 2: to DeVante Adams, but it's just struggled to be consistent. 161 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 2: He has eleven pas touchdowns this year, but only three 162 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 2: have been in the second half. The Raiders kind of 163 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 2: start strong and then just fade out the way. I 164 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 2: mean it pretty much epitomizes their season. Hunter Red from 165 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 2: Darren Waller. They just got put on ir so even 166 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 2: less weapons than Stefan Gilbert is probably gonna match with 167 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 2: Devonte Adams and he's been highly graded by PFF so 168 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 2: far this season. And the Colts defense really excelled in 169 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 2: the second half. They allow seven point three points per 170 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 2: game in the second half. That's fourth in the NFL. 171 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 2: So I think of Bendy can hang around and kind 172 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:39,679 Speaker 2: of keep the Raiders from explosive plays in the first half. 173 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 3: I think this game goes under comfortably. 174 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 4: Total opened at forty three points. Much of the handle 175 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 4: on the under in this game. It's kind of weird 176 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:50,559 Speaker 4: to take us out. And this one we saw a 177 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 4: line at six and a half earlier in the week. 178 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,319 Speaker 4: Now it's at four and a half and getting the points. 179 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 4: They can't cover the first half spread, which is alarming, 180 00:08:56,960 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 4: But they are good to the under eight and one 181 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 4: of the Colts to the under the season five and 182 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 4: zero on the road. And how can you trust the 183 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 4: Raiders in the second half. They've been brutal. Just see 184 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 4: that Jacksonville game. They what was it one target for Adams? 185 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,360 Speaker 4: Neverbytches He had one target in the second half against 186 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 4: the Jacks. 187 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:13,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, Luke Swayne twenty. 188 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 2: Yards and two touchdowns and nine catches in the first half. 189 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:17,839 Speaker 2: You finished with one catch and ten yards of the 190 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 2: second half. 191 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 3: So what does that tell you? 192 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:21,559 Speaker 4: For folks that need to hear a rant on that, 193 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:24,079 Speaker 4: go back and check out the retap pod from this 194 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:27,080 Speaker 4: past Sunday, because someone from this podcast may or may 195 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 4: not have erupted in dismay. Luke Swayne, welcome back. First 196 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 4: best bet for wee ten. 197 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: So my first one is gonna be the Niners as 198 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 1: a seven point favorite hosting the Chargers on Sunday Night Football, 199 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: where this one's gonna be just a Niners team who 200 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: the last few weeks has been a shall of themselves 201 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 1: based off of Indies, where we already know that we're 202 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:53,920 Speaker 1: gonna be getting Debo back, just Kowski back, Jennings back. 203 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 1: And then there's some guys like Armstrong who are trending 204 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:01,080 Speaker 1: in the right way, still waiting going against the Chargers 205 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:05,679 Speaker 1: team who is facing probably the worst inchbug in the 206 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: entire league right now. But they went against a Falcon 207 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 1: secondary last week that is the worst in the league 208 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:16,559 Speaker 1: by a substantial margin, and Herbert struggled throwing the ball. 209 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 1: He I think he completed like twenty of thirty eight 210 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 1: passes for under three hundred yards and they barely won 211 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:27,199 Speaker 1: that game, and now they're going to a San Francisco 212 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 1: team who strength is running the ball, which is the 213 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 1: Chargers weakness by far, and the Chargers won't be able 214 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 1: to throw the ball, and the matchups just favor the Niners. 215 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,199 Speaker 1: I know it's a divisional dog and people want to 216 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 1: back the shiny object of Justin Herbert as a seven 217 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 1: point underdog on primetime TV, but I just don't see it. 218 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: Keenan Allen seems like he's going to be out, Mike 219 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 1: Welkins is definitely going to be out. With the Niners 220 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: getting healthy, I think the Niners just stomped the Charge 221 00:10:57,000 --> 00:11:00,040 Speaker 1: on Sunday night fall. So I'll take Niners minus. 222 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 4: Two teams heading a different directions as it pertains to 223 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 4: injuries nicely laid out there. Yeah, Chargers, it doesn't seem 224 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,199 Speaker 4: like it's getting any better. You mentioned Williams Allen and 225 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,079 Speaker 4: linebacker Issues Hopkins didn't practice this week. 226 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 3: The kicker. 227 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 4: If that matters to you, that that that matters when 228 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 4: it comes to a spread and hanging in there to 229 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:17,680 Speaker 4: get a back door cover or something. 230 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 1: So now it's more than a running back, I think, 231 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:21,199 Speaker 1: So there you go. 232 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 4: Always gotta get some running back slander into the into 233 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,679 Speaker 4: the episode. Nice work. Okay, back to Brandon. Best bet 234 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 4: number two. 235 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the Miami Dolphins minus three and 236 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:34,559 Speaker 3: a half against the Cleveland Browns. So again, we've talked 237 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 3: about the Dolphins a bunch when Fotellovlo plays. When he 238 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,719 Speaker 3: plays over half the stats, the Dolphins are six and 239 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 3: oh and two of those games, is averaging over three 240 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 3: hundred yards a game, almost touchdowns a game. That's what 241 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:48,319 Speaker 3: he put up last week, another big number for them. 242 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 3: In those six games. Miami is number one in overall 243 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 3: offense and number one in passing offense by Dboay. So 244 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 3: they are laying it up. Tyree killed John Waddle. We 245 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 3: just have seen the defense be able to match up 246 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:03,960 Speaker 3: with this team yet, and I'm not sure that's going 247 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 3: to be Cleveland here. Their defense hasn't been great this season. 248 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 3: A little better lately, but just overall in the season, 249 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 3: still not good. The offense has been good, but it's 250 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 3: not really the sort of offense built to win a 251 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:17,840 Speaker 3: shootout this sort of game. They want to be in control, 252 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:19,599 Speaker 3: they want to be on the front foot, run the 253 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 3: ball and stay in control. Well, Miami's defense isn't good either. 254 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 3: But the one thing that is good is their run 255 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:28,079 Speaker 3: defense actually top ten on EPA in a run defense, 256 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 3: So if you limit that a little bit, now you 257 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:34,199 Speaker 3: got Tuoa Wattle Tire week on one side trying to 258 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 3: win a shootout against Jacoby Brissettjamari Cooper. Love you guys, 259 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:40,599 Speaker 3: but not really the side of the shoot that I 260 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:42,599 Speaker 3: want to be on. And then for me that you 261 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 3: here are some of the splits. It's a home game 262 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 3: for Miami. Miami at home, fourth offense compared to eleventh 263 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 3: on the road and seventh defense compared to number thirty one, 264 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 3: so that's a huge change for them. Cleveland fifteenth offensively 265 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 3: on the road versus number one at home, So big 266 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 3: home road split change here. And then the really key 267 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 3: one for me, Cleveland's defense ranked thirty first in the 268 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:09,680 Speaker 3: second quarter and thirtieth in the fourth quarter by DVLA. 269 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,439 Speaker 3: We've talked a lot about this. Miami late in a 270 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 3: half is wearing teams down all that speed, They're wearing 271 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 3: you down lane halves their offenses or their offense is 272 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:22,559 Speaker 3: putting up big numbers. So I think that's going to 273 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 3: line up well for Cleveland. Second half. Cleveland has only 274 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 3: covered seventeen of their last fifty three second halves. This 275 00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 3: is just not a team that manages to get the 276 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 3: job done lay. It really never has been. So I 277 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 3: think right now we're remembering the Browns from the last 278 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 3: time we saw them. We saw them in Halloween. They 279 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 3: had the big Monday Night win. They beat up on 280 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,559 Speaker 3: the Bengal best game of the season. But if you 281 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 3: look at teams that covered by seven or more then 282 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:50,960 Speaker 3: they went into the bye week, you're feeling yourself. You're 283 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 3: feeling great, good vibes, maybe a little too much. Perhaps 284 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 3: those teams that come out as road underdog three to 285 00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 3: seven points the next week are five and fourteen ats 286 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 3: and only one and eighteen a straight up. So those 287 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:07,679 Speaker 3: teams have not played a well, losing twelve of those 288 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,680 Speaker 3: nineteen by double digits, the last five by eighteen or more. 289 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 3: So the script could set up similarly here. The Dolphins 290 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 3: can hang a big on anyone and high total here too. 291 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 3: So I like the Dolphins to cover the three and 292 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 3: a half. I don't mind not getting the three because 293 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 3: I think they win with these. 294 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 4: Hey by a thread. Ja Cobra said as a in 295 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 4: his career as an underdog is just over five hundred. 296 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 4: Kevin Stefanski just over five hundred against the number as 297 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 4: an underdog in his tenure with the Browns. Money is 298 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 4: coming in on Cleveland, so Brandon is going the other way. 299 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 4: Seventy nine percent of money, forty seven percent of the bets, 300 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 4: so more of the bets are coming in on the Dolphins, 301 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 4: but the money coming in on Cleveland. Let's go to jail, 302 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 4: second best bet. 303 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 3: All right. 304 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 2: So Brandon kind of did me a bit of a 305 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 2: failure already, kind of laid out the case for why 306 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 2: we should be looking at Miami offense. So I'm going 307 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 2: to stick that game in the Browns Dolphins. I'm actually 308 00:14:57,960 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 2: going to take the over forty nine and a half 309 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:01,840 Speaker 2: because I think this is a great recipe for and over. 310 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 2: Because you know, some decent offenses. I mean, I think 311 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 2: I'm selling Miami's offense short when I call them decent. 312 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 2: I think right now they're probably the most offense in 313 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 2: the NFL, but some struggling defenses as well. Because they 314 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 2: both allow twenty five points per game, and they each 315 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 2: average over twenty four points per game, which is both 316 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 2: ranks in the top ten. The one reason why I'm 317 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 2: really encouraged why I think the Browns can put up 318 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 2: let's five points just to cover their half of this 319 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 2: over here. Their first overall in runs of twenty plus 320 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 2: yards and their third in run attempts per game, So 321 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 2: they don't really deviate from that game plan, like they 322 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 2: will stick to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt routinely, and 323 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 2: I think that's going to be able to let them 324 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 2: just at least keep it a little bit close. Doesn't 325 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 2: necessarily mean that they're going to keep it within the 326 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 2: three and a half. Now, the Dolphins been pretty good 327 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,480 Speaker 2: from the yardage standpoint, but have given up eleven rushing 328 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 2: touchdowns this year and they just let Bears offense kind 329 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 2: of just junk it up and scored thirty two on them, right, So, 330 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 2: and the Browns, I think they're trending in the right 331 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 2: direction from an injury standpoint, especially for their run game 332 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 2: David Joe who's back practicing the same thing with Wyatt Teller. 333 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 2: They already ranked second rush yards and the doowns this season, 334 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 2: so I just think that they're going to be at 335 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 2: least pulled up there in the bargain. And plus, if 336 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 2: you just heard what Brandon said, the Dolphins offense is 337 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 2: close as hell. They're going to be able to put 338 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 2: probably twenty five to thirty points on their own. Now, 339 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 2: five of the Browns eight games this season have combined 340 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 2: for over fifty points. They let the Jets for thirty 341 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 2: points on this defense, so I'm pretty sure the Dolphins 342 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 2: should be able to handle that. So give me the 343 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 2: over forty nine and a half and what I expect 344 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 2: to be the highest scoring game of Week ten. 345 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 4: Browns team total over at FanDuel is twenty three points 346 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 4: Cleveland and my Miami's team total is at twenty seven. 347 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 4: So to get that twenty five, you'd be hitting a 348 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 4: team total over in that cereo best member two Luke Swint. 349 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 1: So my second one is gonna be Packers as a 350 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 1: five pointt dog at homost and the Cowboys. Where this 351 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: one it's just we're just going to be taking a 352 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 1: Packers to game at the lowest every week. It seems 353 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 1: like we're taking it at the lowest market expectations. But 354 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 1: as Brandon said, like we got to throw the priors. 355 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,159 Speaker 1: This isn't a Packers team that we thought they were 356 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: going to be. But as a five point underdog at home, 357 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 1: like I can't remember the last time the Packers were 358 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 1: an underdoger like this, like ever, it's the. 359 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 4: Longest, the biggest home dog spot of his career. 360 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 1: This is where like if you're going to attack this 361 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: Cowboys team, it's gonna be running the ball, which if 362 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 1: the Packers can do anything, Aaron Jones is going to 363 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 1: be playing Sunday. 364 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:36,639 Speaker 3: He came off the injury report and. 365 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: You got a Dylan where they can cover this number, 366 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 1: just like they covered the Bill's number two Sunday nights ago, 367 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,639 Speaker 1: where if they run it down their throats, they can 368 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: take advantage of this Cowboys team where it's really just 369 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 1: the Packers of lost five in a row and this 370 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 1: is their season, like if they won't any chance of 371 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 1: making a run, like they have to take this game. 372 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:02,359 Speaker 1: And I can't think of a better way to create 373 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 1: hope than beating America's team, which you're always going to 374 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:09,119 Speaker 1: get enough number on where I'll just say the Packers 375 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 1: plus five and a half Rogers is a shiny. 376 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 3: Object that I keep harping like fading. 377 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 1: But the poet is just you have to close your 378 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 1: eyes and take that'll take a spot every single time. 379 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,360 Speaker 4: Last time they were in this spot twenty sixteen Packers 380 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 4: were home against the Seahawks were a good team. Seattle 381 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 4: felt at four to one that year. Davante Adams was 382 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,200 Speaker 4: still a packer one hundred and four yards receiving on 383 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 4: six targets. Jordan Nelson was still a packer. Randall Cobb 384 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 4: was no longer that he was not thorps of Randall 385 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 4: Cobb at the time, and Jared Cook was the tight 386 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 4: end time. Montgomery was the running back who does not matter, 387 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 4: but he was the running back at the time. 388 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:51,680 Speaker 3: Okay, by the way, Aaron Rodgers as a home underdog, 389 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 3: not a lot of sample here, but five and a 390 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 3: one ats all time, covering by eleven and a half 391 00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 3: points a game, and he's only a lost once as 392 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:00,679 Speaker 3: a home underdog outright, Yeah, and. 393 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 4: He kind of owns alice seven and two, six and 394 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 4: three of the number that includes two playoff games. 395 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 1: It does feel like these are like the Patriots friends, 396 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 1: where it's like all the Patriots trends have Tom Brady 397 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 1: involved with them, where like the Aaron Rodgers trans right 398 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 1: now had Vante or like someone the Pulse now Mike McCarthy. 399 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 4: We'll see, Jill, you're okay with this? See, I feel 400 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 4: like you have thoughts. 401 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 2: I'm just conflicted, you know. But at the same time, 402 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 2: I know that Aaron Rodgers owns the Cowboys. I have 403 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 2: no problem admitting that. It's just this time I feel 404 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:35,680 Speaker 2: like I think we got them. But at the same time, 405 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 2: trusts Luke. I know that he's really good at what 406 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 2: he does, so I'm. 407 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:42,320 Speaker 3: Just like, oh, he's probably right. God damn it. So 408 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,919 Speaker 3: hopefully they just only win by four. Are you worried 409 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 3: about the run defense? That was the one thing that 410 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,920 Speaker 3: I was like, Man, it feels like the Cowboys could 411 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 3: just drop like two hundred rushing yards on this Packers 412 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:54,639 Speaker 3: run defense. 413 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 1: Which but I still think the Packers can do the 414 00:19:57,560 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 1: same as well, maybe a little bit less. But if 415 00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:02,479 Speaker 1: the are both running the ball, like if they're bleeding 416 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 1: at that clock, like that provides value to the underdog. 417 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 1: Where but like at the same time or the this 418 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:15,120 Speaker 1: is like a topic that everyone's hearing right now. Where 419 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 1: if Zeke's taking Pollard's carries that a good thing. 420 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 4: Enough, right, Paular coming off a big week, Zeke practicing 421 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 4: expected to be back for the Dallas moved on. Final 422 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 4: pick from each of the guys, Brandon Anderson, what do 423 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 4: you got. 424 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 3: Going with the Pittsburgh Steelers at home underdogs, underdogs to 425 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:40,359 Speaker 3: the New Orleans Saints, Andy Dalton, Dennis Allen Road of 426 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,400 Speaker 3: favorites for some reason that I still haven't quite figured out. 427 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 3: This was our pick, I think last week on this podcast, 428 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 3: this was the look ahead. Finally the line has started 429 00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 3: to move, a little but hopeful move. They're like the 430 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 3: talent underdog spot. Of course, so let's keep the underdog 431 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 3: line here. But I think it is just a great 432 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,679 Speaker 3: situational spot. Pittsburgh's coming off of bye week, which may 433 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,040 Speaker 3: everyone needs a byeway, but Pittsburgh really needed it. Can 434 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:06,159 Speaker 3: you Pickett gets a whole extra week to work with 435 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,160 Speaker 3: the offense settle in a little bit. But I think, 436 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 3: especially the defense that I'm focusing on here, it looks 437 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,639 Speaker 3: t finally is back and TJ. Watt cheats everything for 438 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 3: this team. Last year, TJ. Watt when he played, the 439 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 3: Steelers defense ranked thirteenth in DV away. He missed twice 440 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 3: and they dropped to thirtieth in the two games without him. 441 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 3: I know it's a small sample, but the TJ. Wat 442 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,680 Speaker 3: played one game, they were the number three defense. In 443 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 3: all the games without him, they dropped a thirty first, 444 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 3: So basically take one man off of the team and 445 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,360 Speaker 3: they are a bottom three defense. Put out there their 446 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 3: top ten defense, top five pass defense. Suddenly you have 447 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 3: this good, maybe great defense at home against Andy Dalton 448 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:53,400 Speaker 3: and not Michael Thomas because he's gone whatever, other receivers 449 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,120 Speaker 3: other than Chris olave Era left. I don't really under 450 00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 3: why the scene the road favorites here. We saw that 451 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 3: they did barely even move the ball against Baltimore. That 452 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,639 Speaker 3: was Monday night. So we're a short week here against 453 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 3: the rested opponent. And then you guys know, I gotta 454 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 3: do the Tomlin underdog stats. So Tomlin out of by 455 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,239 Speaker 3: a week eleven and four straight up, but Tomlin as 456 00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 3: underdog raleron Mike tom week five forward thirty nine sixteen 457 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 3: and the one ats seventy one percent cover it, and 458 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 3: then the good one, the great one as a home 459 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:28,639 Speaker 3: underdog fourteen two and one eight percent cover ninety percent. 460 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:32,040 Speaker 3: ROI you're basically just doubling your money when you bet 461 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,880 Speaker 3: on them nine covers in a row, seven times outright 462 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,920 Speaker 3: that they've won straight up. I'm not going to step 463 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 3: in front of that train. Certainly, not Randy Dalton and 464 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,240 Speaker 3: Dennis Allen n there read the team the healthy team 465 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 3: against the short week Saints. 466 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 4: Steelers preseason win total was seven and a half, and 467 00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 4: I think folks that may have decided over were because 468 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 4: they felt TJ. Watt was that impactful. They got that 469 00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 4: thrilling Week one win and it felt like, Okay, maybe 470 00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 4: they can hang around here. And as it pertains to 471 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:06,440 Speaker 4: the Saint side, Eddie Dalton is a road favorite for 472 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 4: just the sixth time since she was an eighteen and 473 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 4: he's been Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, Brandon Allen, Kyle Allen, 474 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:19,800 Speaker 4: and Ryan Fitzpatrick. So Kenny Pickett is his guy this time. 475 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 4: But Dalton is just one and four against the spread 476 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 4: as a road favorite since twenty eighteen back to Jill 477 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 4: number three. 478 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is probably gonna be the most 479 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 2: bet underdog of the week. I'm with Brandon, but I'm 480 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 2: taking Steelers money line at plus one fifteen. I mean, 481 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:35,480 Speaker 2: it's a pretty short spread, so it's I don't feel 482 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,880 Speaker 2: like I'm Matt brave by doing it. But that being said, 483 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 2: I don't think we could really argue why this is 484 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:41,920 Speaker 2: gonna be the one of the most bet of the 485 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,359 Speaker 2: week because Kenny Pickett is finally gonna get you know, 486 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:48,280 Speaker 2: appropriate practice time with the ones. DJ Watt, you know 487 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,199 Speaker 2: they're gonna get a joelt A Dalton, who is very 488 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,359 Speaker 2: familiar with Mike Tomlin, and Mike tom Win is very 489 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 2: familiar with him because Dalton in his career obviously playing 490 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,879 Speaker 2: with the Bengals six straight up in eight career games 491 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,720 Speaker 2: in Pittsburgh, and those two with back in twenty twelve 492 00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,880 Speaker 2: and twenty fifteen. One of them Ben didn't even play. 493 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 2: You know, he's lost three straight games. I know it's 494 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 2: not called hein spield anymore, but it'll always be hind 495 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:11,520 Speaker 2: Spield in my heart. But the Steers run game should 496 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 2: actually get a little bit of improvement this week as well, 497 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 2: because Najee Harris, I believe he's gonna probably take a 498 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 2: little bit of a step back. You're gonna see Jalen 499 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:19,879 Speaker 2: Warren actually come in. He's actually averaging a little bit 500 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,119 Speaker 2: over five yards per Carrie, whereas Nase he's having that 501 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 2: Liz Frank injury, it's around three point three yards per carrie. 502 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 2: And I think Deontay Johnson and George Pickens are gonna 503 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 2: be able to get off like no Marshaun Lattimore. I 504 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,920 Speaker 2: think Deontay's have his first touchdown. 505 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 3: Season in this game. 506 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 2: So yeah, Steers money line, I think is THETT is. 507 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,639 Speaker 4: The bet to make Luke Swayne is. 508 00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna have a lot to say on 509 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 1: this one, but I'm gonna go with the Steelers as 510 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 1: well plus one and a half underdog where we brandished 511 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: all my trends that I was gonna was gonna say. 512 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,480 Speaker 1: So the one thing I do want to mention is, 513 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 1: I mean, you've got the Steelers as a home underdog 514 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,440 Speaker 1: and j Watt is if he plays like if he 515 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,880 Speaker 1: just plays on Sunday, he is the most impactful defensive 516 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 1: player like I can honestly remember in a long time, 517 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 1: where he just changes everything. Where if you look at 518 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:08,920 Speaker 1: the Steelers, like the Steelers schedule so far in terms 519 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 1: of DVOA is the hardest in the NFL today, where 520 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,240 Speaker 1: if you just look at the defenses as they plays, 521 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,240 Speaker 1: let's if you've got Patriots, Jets are a lot better 522 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 1: than we thought they were, Bills, Bucks, Eagles like those 523 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 1: are five of like those are the last five weeks. 524 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 1: It's a Saints defence that will be their easiest opponent 525 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 1: in terms of d v I by far to date 526 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 1: off of a bye week and the Saints coming off 527 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,639 Speaker 1: of a short short week where I hate to like 528 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,359 Speaker 1: overreact coming from someone who been on the Saints, but 529 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 1: like there was just nothing on Monday that gave me 530 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: any hope. And yeah, the cliche like the wrong team's favorite, 531 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,040 Speaker 1: I just don't get that. With the Steelers being underdog 532 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:51,560 Speaker 1: and TJ. Wat plays and he brings it, and we 533 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,159 Speaker 1: saw on Monday Andy Dalton's been putting up these numbers, 534 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 1: but when he had any type of pressure like it was, 535 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 1: it was a problem. So take the Steelers at plus 536 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,639 Speaker 1: more and a half and once Wat is declared, and 537 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,200 Speaker 1: I would assume, like this is probably gonna go to 538 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 1: that pick them. I think it was two and a 539 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,360 Speaker 1: half yesterday, And tending to think is starting to move 540 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 1: based off of the assumption that TJ. Watt is playing 541 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:16,439 Speaker 1: because he is that important where there aren't a lot 542 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,200 Speaker 1: of players that are out outside of the QB that 543 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:20,360 Speaker 1: are going to move the line. 544 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:22,240 Speaker 3: Like this, and that just speaks so import he is. 545 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 4: Mike tom Onins said earlier in the week TJ. Watt 546 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,840 Speaker 4: optimistic about him playing on Sunday. 547 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll just give you a little bonus Steelers pick 548 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,280 Speaker 3: here too, since we're all three on Steelers. I believe 549 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 3: that's only happened once this year where we all three 550 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,320 Speaker 3: had a side. I think we had a Packer's side 551 00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 3: against the Bears maybe and got a nice easy Packers win. 552 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 3: So let me give you a little bonus Steelers pick. 553 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 3: We'll look ahead. I am looking already at Steelers home 554 00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:49,600 Speaker 3: underdogs to the Bengals next week, so that could be 555 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,879 Speaker 3: a bonus look ahead for you and on future Friday. 556 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 3: This week, Steelers over five and a half wins. Brendan, 557 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:57,840 Speaker 3: you mentioned the seven and a half coming into the season. 558 00:26:58,240 --> 00:26:59,639 Speaker 3: We're at five and a half now, they only have 559 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:01,360 Speaker 3: to go four and five the rest of the way. 560 00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,040 Speaker 3: And look, you mentioned the schedule artists schedule in the 561 00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:06,560 Speaker 3: league so far. Why you a thrank schedule the rest 562 00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:08,840 Speaker 3: of the way. I think they have a chance in 563 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:10,680 Speaker 3: any game the rest of the way, especially of the 564 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:13,240 Speaker 3: defense is as much improved as we all seem to 565 00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,000 Speaker 3: think that it will be. So a couple extra Steelers picks. 566 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 3: If you like the Steelers love here, there's a couple 567 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 3: more ways you can back them going forward. Love it. 568 00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 4: I see Vegas on their schedule Carolina Atlanta. They play 569 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 4: at Indye Monday night, when Jeff Saturday goes back on 570 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 4: his old network Cleveland to wrap the season very good 571 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,359 Speaker 4: and by the way, just to drive this home, Pittsburgh 572 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,560 Speaker 4: getting sixty four percent of the best sixty six percent 573 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,120 Speaker 4: of the money according to the Action app Pittsburgh plus 574 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:39,720 Speaker 4: one and a half and a lot of the money. 575 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,920 Speaker 4: In Jill's case, moneyline pick is coming in on Pittsburgh 576 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 4: as well. That is heavily in favor of Pittsburgh as 577 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:50,359 Speaker 4: it brings to the trends. Okay, speaking of look ahead spots, Brandon, 578 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 4: you gave the bonus look ahead before the actual look ahead, 579 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 4: which that's different, but that's what makes us unique here 580 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,119 Speaker 4: at the Action Network podcast. So you gave the bonus 581 00:27:58,200 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 4: look ahead, what's the look ahead? 582 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,920 Speaker 3: The look ahead We're gonna go with the New York 583 00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,000 Speaker 3: Football Giants minus three and a half at home against 584 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 3: the Lions next week. This is all about the number 585 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,399 Speaker 3: play with look ahead. Like some of these look aheads, 586 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,280 Speaker 3: I've been focusing on, just grab the pick that I 587 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,440 Speaker 3: know I'm gonna like, I'm trying to get back to 588 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 3: what look that it is supposed to be here, which 589 00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:19,840 Speaker 3: is grab the CLV, get the closing line of value. 590 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:21,160 Speaker 3: And this is a spot where I think this line's 591 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:24,679 Speaker 3: gonna move because look at this Sunday. The Giants are 592 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,399 Speaker 3: off a bye week at home against the Texans, who 593 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 3: we all think is the worst team in the league. 594 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,920 Speaker 3: So the Giants are big favorites. They probably win comfortably. 595 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:36,640 Speaker 3: The Lions are underdogs like usual, but underdogs to the Bears, 596 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 3: and Justin Fields is playing great could carve up that defense. 597 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 3: The Lions can even get blown out if the Bears 598 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 3: keep playing like they have. So if the Lions lose 599 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 3: big two Chicago of all teams, and the Giants win big, 600 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 3: I think this is a Lion that rises quickly because 601 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 3: suddenly you have Giants seven and two at home against 602 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,120 Speaker 3: the two and seven Lions. I don't think these teams 603 00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 3: are quite that far apart, but we know that the 604 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,840 Speaker 3: public is gonna like a New York team. And in 605 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,480 Speaker 3: our luck rankings that we have at Action Network, the 606 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,200 Speaker 3: Lion dead last in lock the Giants are second. So 607 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,160 Speaker 3: normally that would say, okay, but you should betting the 608 00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 3: Lions from that way. Well, how I interpret that now 609 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 3: is I want to grab this line now, because by 610 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 3: next week I think we might be looking at Giants 611 00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 3: minus six, Giants minus seven, something like that, and then 612 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,680 Speaker 3: then you might have to take the Lions because now 613 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,680 Speaker 3: the public perception has pushed that line up. Right now, 614 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 3: no one's thinking about that game yet. Right now the 615 00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 3: line is more where it should be. So I'm gonna 616 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,360 Speaker 3: grab the Giants now. We might even be able to 617 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 3: come back on it the other way. Last five weeks, 618 00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:42,280 Speaker 3: Giants are number eleven in Dboway versus the Lions twenty ninth. 619 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,800 Speaker 3: No surprise there, but we knew the Lions was great 620 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,920 Speaker 3: early on the offense. The Lions offense is down to 621 00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,560 Speaker 3: twenty seventh in the last five weeks, whereas the Giants 622 00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,080 Speaker 3: are top ten, and honestly they have been for most 623 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,040 Speaker 3: of the season. De try A so much worse on 624 00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 3: the road. So I think it's a great spot here 625 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,160 Speaker 3: at the three and a half. I suspect by the 626 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,720 Speaker 3: time that the line comes out for next week after Sunday, 627 00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:04,760 Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to be looking at the other side. 628 00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 3: I want to grab it right now. 629 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:06,840 Speaker 1: I like it. 630 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 4: Make your own luck now by beating the luck rankings. 631 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 4: Nice work. Okay, let's recap the picks and then we'll 632 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:16,440 Speaker 4: get out of here. So Brandon Anderson for Week ten 633 00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 4: is on Seattle Island plus two and a half, but 634 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,080 Speaker 4: it's in Germany this week. Seattle plus two and a 635 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:26,440 Speaker 4: half against Tampa in Germany, Miami minus three and a 636 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,760 Speaker 4: half against Cleveland, and he likes the Steelers plus one 637 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,600 Speaker 4: and a half home dogs against New Orleans. Jill is 638 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,600 Speaker 4: on the Indie Vegas under forty one and a half, 639 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 4: Browns Duffins over forty nine and a half points, and 640 00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,920 Speaker 4: he likes Pittsburgh money line at plus one ten. Luke 641 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,720 Speaker 4: is on sant Fram minus seven home to the charts. 642 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:51,840 Speaker 4: He likes Green Bay home dog plus five against Dallas, 643 00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:54,640 Speaker 4: and he too is on Pittsburgh plus one and a 644 00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:59,400 Speaker 4: half against New Orleans. For our NFL Week ten best bets, 645 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:02,360 Speaker 4: we are present by FanDuel thanks to Brandon Anderson, Joe Gallant, 646 00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 4: Luke Sane. I'm your host, Brendan Glasheen. Best of luck 647 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 4: with your best week everybody. We will see you again 648 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,160 Speaker 4: Monday morning for the recap show right here,