Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.
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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,
Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday.
Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do
Speaker 2: we have, Crystal?
Speaker 1: Indeed, we do lots of interesting things to get into
Speaker 1: this morning. We're going to start with the very latest polls.
Speaker 1: We are actually ninety nine days out from the lah
Speaker 1: kind of crazy, right, that is crazy. So we've got
Speaker 1: a bunch of looks at like does the horse race,
Speaker 1: the battleground poles, favorability, top issues, all of that stuff
Speaker 1: we're going to dig in. We also have Kamla's first
Speaker 1: ad that she is up with, using a Beyonce song.
Speaker 3: That she got fregished to you, I will say freedom.
Speaker 1: Well, so we're going to play and see if we
Speaker 1: get digged on YouTube.
Speaker 4: So take it.
Speaker 3: We'll get risks with that one.
Speaker 1: This morning, we're also taking a look at the Veepstakes
Speaker 1: for Kamala Harris. A clearer picture emerging of what she
Speaker 1: may be looking for and who the top contenders are,
Speaker 1: so we're going to deep on this one. Our producers
Speaker 1: did a fantastic job pulling together mashups of each of
Speaker 1: the top contenders so we can show you who they
Speaker 1: are and what we know about them and who may
Speaker 1: be leading that veepstakes fight. We've also got new very
Speaker 1: interesting behind the scenes reported details about Trump courting RFK
Speaker 1: Junior and what exactly the play is there, so we'll
Speaker 1: bringing that. We've also got even more revelations about secret
Speaker 1: service failures with regard to that attempted assassination of Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: I always want to say attempted assassination attempt for some
Speaker 1: reason anyway, massive communication failures and something that they've known
Speaker 1: about for like literally over a decade that apparently hasn't
Speaker 1: been fixed. The swat team, the local swat team that
Speaker 1: was there on the ground, is also speaking out, so
Speaker 1: will bring you all of that and also a bombshell
Speaker 1: story international story. Two major cartel figures now brought down,
Speaker 1: arrested apprehended here in the US. The behind the scenes
Speaker 1: of this is crazy. Seems like some sort of a
Speaker 1: soap opera betrayal. Although I wouldn't believe everything that's coming
Speaker 1: out about this at this point.
Speaker 2: There will be a movie five years from now with
Speaker 2: all the actual details, but for now, this is absolutely nuts.
Speaker 2: As many other bros online, I have a deep fascination
Speaker 2: with the Mexican drug cartoon. So when I saw this news,
Speaker 2: I was actually speechless. I was like, I cannot believe
Speaker 2: they got him. And then I'm like, well did they
Speaker 2: That's the real question.
Speaker 1: Because the deal with Elmyo was his whole thing is like,
Speaker 1: he's never set footage, never done.
Speaker 2: Nobody even knew what he looked like. Even the photo
Speaker 2: everyone oh really really him? Yeah, I mean I think
Speaker 2: the photos of him, it was very very strange. And
Speaker 2: then the fact that Chappo Junior was involved. He's a
Speaker 2: young man and.
Speaker 3: Allegedly struck a deal with the government.
Speaker 2: I mean, like I said, this is straight up out
Speaker 2: of like Narco's Season four. So this is going to
Speaker 2: be It's fascinating to see what the initial thing is
Speaker 2: going to be, and I'm really hoping this one goes
Speaker 2: to trial because we learned a lot during the l
Speaker 2: Chapo trial, and the government will actually have to give
Speaker 2: us some facts. Last time around, we learned so much
Speaker 2: about the inner workings of the drug cartels, the connection
Speaker 2: to the Mexican government, allegedly of the Mexican government. This
Speaker 2: time around didn't even know this was all going down, So.
Speaker 3: There's a big questions there.
Speaker 1: It's interesting, all right, So we'll get into all of that.
Speaker 1: But let's go ahead and start with those polls.
Speaker 2: Yes, let's start with the polls, and thank you to
Speaker 2: all of our premium members. By the way, we have
Speaker 2: some big news coming, so stay tuned for that. Let's
Speaker 2: go ahead and begin with the Wall Street Journal. This
Speaker 2: one really was the one that shook the political landscape
Speaker 2: and put it up there on the screen, and it
Speaker 2: actually just highlights how much things have really changed. So
Speaker 2: what you can see in front of you is if
Speaker 2: the general election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Speaker 2: Originally we had Trump and Biden, and you can just
Speaker 2: see the massive swing between Joe Biden, who was at
Speaker 2: forty two percent in July first in the Wall Street
Speaker 2: Journal poll, and you had Donald Trump at some forty
Speaker 2: nine percent. But Harris effectively has erased the entire Trump
Speaker 2: lead and is essentially tied within the margin of error
Speaker 2: in this latest poll at forty nine to forty seven.
Speaker 3: You should always, of course, incorporate.
Speaker 2: That margin of error of roughly three point one percent
Speaker 2: to then show you that this is an effective tie.
Speaker 2: What's also fascinating, and this is I think the story
Speaker 2: of the Kamala changeout. Are you enthusiastic about your candidate?
Speaker 2: Look at that sub fifty percent figure up until July
Speaker 2: second with Joe Biden. Now you have almost eighty percent
Speaker 2: of Democrats who are saying that they are enthusiastic about
Speaker 2: their candidate. You see the enthusiasm massively spike amongst Independence Republicans.
Speaker 2: It's also spiked and that's not actually unexpected given the
Speaker 2: attempted assassination of Donald Trump the RNC, and of course
Speaker 2: it's close. When we get to election day, more people
Speaker 2: are paying attention. But the fundamental story is the change
Speaker 2: amongst independence, a change amongst Democrats specifically, and to see
Speaker 2: what that turnout skyrocketing turnout previously of twenty twenty two
Speaker 2: will look like in twenty twenty four when Donald Trump
Speaker 2: is there and on the ballot. So I really think
Speaker 2: that that is the biggest story of the entire election.
Speaker 2: And then the favorability rating is one too that we
Speaker 2: really cannot look away from. Let's go ahead and put
Speaker 2: the next one, please up on the screen, because it
Speaker 2: also tells that story.
Speaker 3: Here we have from the Financial Times.
Speaker 2: They did a fantastic job of going through and aggregating
Speaker 2: a lot of favorability data. This is from actually multiple
Speaker 2: polls that they've aggregated, and you have Trump's you know,
Speaker 2: favorability rating, which was increasing, but it was still you know, underwater.
Speaker 2: It was a rough way around, like minus eleven percent lately.
Speaker 2: This is with the attempted assassination. Previously, he used to
Speaker 2: go pretty significantly, but Biden was, you know, in the
Speaker 2: deep the doldrums, I guess of favorability rating. Things were
Speaker 2: just getting worse and worse for him all throughout his presidency,
Speaker 2: but especially after the disastrous debate performance. Just look at
Speaker 2: the hockey stick that we have here with Kamala Harris, who,
Speaker 2: let's be honest, we cover this a million times. She's
Speaker 2: one of the most least popular vice presidents in modern history.
Speaker 2: Nobody really cared about her. She wasn't having even you know,
Speaker 2: a third look or whatever from Democrats, but the anointing
Speaker 2: of her and giving just an alternative to Donald Trump
Speaker 2: that can speak literally and prosecute a very basic case
Speaker 2: against Trump that the most normy Democratic mayor in the
Speaker 2: country could has really invigorated Democrats and has skyrocketed her favorability.
Speaker 2: And I think that this is one of those where
Speaker 2: the contrasts of the aging, inept basically dying Biden to
Speaker 2: somebody who is just not even a particularly talented politician,
Speaker 2: but nonetheless somebody who's living and breathing that has just
Speaker 2: breathed life into the Democratic base in a way that
Speaker 2: I have not seen I think every modern politics.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not going to say Obama ass but
Speaker 1: there is a little bit of that vibe of like,
Speaker 1: you know, excitement and fir ready to go yeah, And
Speaker 1: it really is the contrast is so important there because
Speaker 1: Biden set the bar below the floor exactly so when
Speaker 1: you see her capably, and she does this very well,
Speaker 1: like we should give her her due. When she's on
Speaker 1: the stump and she's delivering a speech, she's very effective.
Speaker 4: She hasn't had to do.
Speaker 1: Any of the things yet that have really caused her
Speaker 1: trouble in the past. She hasn't sat for a difficult interview.
Speaker 1: She obviously hasn't done a debate versus Donald Trump. Yet
Speaker 1: those are the things that were more challenging for her
Speaker 1: in the past. But up there on the stump in
Speaker 1: front of a cheering, adoring audience, she has a swagger
Speaker 1: right now that has really come across. And I think
Speaker 1: it is true, and we predicted this ahead of time,
Speaker 1: that just the fact that people don't feel like doomed
Speaker 1: to the death march and the you know, matchup that
Speaker 1: everyone was dreading, that there's some new life and vitality
Speaker 1: injected into this race has caused her favorability ratings to skyrocket.
Speaker 1: And it also just shows that part of the problem
Speaker 1: for her was being tied down by the Biden administration
Speaker 1: feeling you know, she was her favorability was really being
Speaker 1: dragged down by how unpopular the whole administration was. So
Speaker 1: those that was the thing that really blew me away,
Speaker 1: because we should be honest about where the polls are.
Speaker 1: They still show, you know, either its tied or Trump
Speaker 1: still has a bit of an edge. She really has
Speaker 1: brought the race back to where it was maybe a
Speaker 1: few months ago before Biden started having like more and
Speaker 1: more precipitous decline and his position really started to dramatically erode.
Speaker 1: So it's not like it's not like she's where Biden
Speaker 1: was last time in twenty twenty. At this time last time,
Speaker 1: you know, in twenty twenty, Biden was up by nine
Speaker 1: points in these type of polls. So let's just be
Speaker 1: clear about where the race stands today. But what has
Speaker 1: been most shocking to me is just the dramatic turnaround
Speaker 1: in her favorability rating. And one of the things that
Speaker 1: I've been thinking about, Sager, is when it was Biden,
Speaker 1: it was very clear who the change candidate was, and
Speaker 1: it was not Joe Bio.
Speaker 4: It was Donald Trump. Now with Kamala.
Speaker 1: Harris, she has because she is different, and she's a comparative,
Speaker 1: fresh face and all of those sorts of things, she
Speaker 1: has as much of a claim on being the change
Speaker 1: candidate in what I think is likely a change election
Speaker 1: as Donald Trump does. That alone has completely reset the
Speaker 1: race with regard to that Wall Street Journal poll. And
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about more about RFK Junior and
Speaker 1: his role in how he fits into all of this
Speaker 1: in the C block but when you make it the
Speaker 1: five way race, when you include him and Jill Stein
Speaker 1: and Cornell West, which they should include the Libertarian canon too,
Speaker 1: I don't know whither're not odd, but yeah, because I
Speaker 1: mean he'll be on more ballads than Cornell West anyway.
Speaker 1: Putting that aside, Harris very clearly at this point is
Speaker 1: benefiting more from having RFK Junior in the race than
Speaker 1: Trump is. So in the five way race, she actually
Speaker 1: is still within the margin of Arab error, but she
Speaker 1: actually edges out Trump forty five forty four. So in
Speaker 1: the overall it's Trump forty nine to forty seven, also
Speaker 1: within the margin of error. In the five way it's
Speaker 1: forty five forty four, which is also very important to
Speaker 1: note here. But just a complete reset of the entire
Speaker 1: matchup like that, it's incredible to say.
Speaker 2: It is shocking, But I mean, as you said, let's
Speaker 2: give that. Let's make sure we present a realistic picture.
Speaker 2: We have the Fox News battleground polls. We can put
Speaker 2: this up there on the screen, and what we see
Speaker 2: in the battleground is that if we look at Pennsylvania,
Speaker 2: we have effectively a tie at forty nine nine. In Michigan,
Speaker 2: forty nine forty nine in Wisconsin actually shows chop up
Speaker 2: by one.
Speaker 3: Fifty to forty nine.
Speaker 2: Minnesota is kind of the most interesting where you have
Speaker 2: fifty two to forty six, and we'll bring that up,
Speaker 2: I think in the VP section because it could possibly
Speaker 2: change how Kamala Harris is thinking about who she's going.
Speaker 3: To pick and what that would look like.
Speaker 2: I would also say on the issues, there are several
Speaker 2: issues which, considering at least what people self report, what
Speaker 2: is most important that is going to significantly I think
Speaker 2: till things in the Republican direction, although not as much
Speaker 2: of a slam dunk as it previously was.
Speaker 3: Let's go to the next one. Please.
Speaker 2: This shows what issue is the most important in deciding
Speaker 2: your vote. Number one is going to be economy or inflation.
Speaker 2: These are for undecided voters. Number two is going to
Speaker 2: be the quote candidate's character or competence. Three is immigration,
Speaker 2: four is foreign policy, five is abortion, and six is
Speaker 2: state of democracy and corruption. So abortion is actually the
Speaker 2: abortion in democracy are the only two issues where there's
Speaker 2: a massive clear edge for Kamala Harris. I believe Kamala
Speaker 2: Harrison some plus fifteen percent or whatever favorability with respect
Speaker 2: to Donald Trump in some head to head polling, but
Speaker 2: on immigration, in foreign policy, foreign policy less so, but
Speaker 2: immigration especially Trump has the leading edge. And on economy
Speaker 2: and inflation, you actually see a pretty significant edge for
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. A lot of that is going to be
Speaker 2: nostalgia from the last time around, but I will say this,
Speaker 2: and I'm sure you recall in twenty twenty, we would
Speaker 2: always ask the Trump people about the polling. We're like, listen,
Speaker 2: this is a disaster, this is really bad. And what
Speaker 2: they always came to us is they said, the economy
Speaker 2: trust for Trump, even at the rock bottom of the
Speaker 2: COVID pandemic and everything, is that Trump was still always
Speaker 2: at least tied, if not leading Joe Biden on the economy,
Speaker 2: and that number became far more predictive of the actual
Speaker 2: vote number in twenty twenty than many of these BS polls,
Speaker 2: Like what are they showed Trump Biden up by seventeen
Speaker 2: points or something like that in Wisconsin in October. It
Speaker 2: is ridiculous. Trump lost it by let's say one percent
Speaker 2: something like that. And so if we look at that
Speaker 2: economy figure, and remember, I mean, yes, there's a lot
Speaker 2: of talk here about enthusiasm, etc. But some independence and
Speaker 2: all those others coming out to vote. If they're breaking
Speaker 2: on the economy, it's still not the best thing for
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris right now.
Speaker 1: Well that may be changing because there's some new numbers out.
Speaker 1: We didn't pull this, maybe we could put it in post.
Speaker 1: This is from Atlas and they pulled on the issues,
Speaker 1: and she's in this particular poll, she's tied with Trump
Speaker 1: on the economy.
Speaker 3: I haven't seen it on all.
Speaker 1: Of these who would handle this in that issue better.
Speaker 1: She's doing way better than Biden on everything across the boar,
Speaker 1: on healthcare, on education, on the economy, which is really
Speaker 1: interesting that people trust her way more than they do
Speaker 1: Biden on the economy.
Speaker 4: And I do think it.
Speaker 1: Goes to the fact that people just felt like this.
Speaker 4: Guy, how can I trust him on anything?
Speaker 1: He's too old to do anything, so why would I
Speaker 1: think that he's going to be like great for the economy.
Speaker 1: So you know, even those numbers are really in flux
Speaker 1: right now and really shifting. Like I said, this is
Speaker 1: an Atlas Intel.
Speaker 4: Poll that was in over the course of last week that.
Speaker 1: Found her and Trump tied on the economache. I was
Speaker 1: pretty shocked to see now again it's one pole. So
Speaker 1: we'll see what else comes out with regards to that.
Speaker 1: But you know, it is remarkable to see how even
Speaker 1: in the battleground states, because that was Biden was kind
Speaker 1: of hanging in there a little bit in the national polls,
Speaker 1: in the battleground polls, he was just getting destroyed. So
Speaker 1: even in the Fox News battleground state polls, she's pulling
Speaker 1: even and winning quite clearly in the state of Minnesota.
Speaker 1: And if you pull their favorability in those states, she
Speaker 1: has a higher favorability than Trump in the Fox News
Speaker 1: poll in each of these battleground states, So you know,
Speaker 1: can't she's clearly there's an energy, there's an excitement her
Speaker 1: team has done, which is it's the same team as
Speaker 1: the Biden team, but they just have so much more
Speaker 1: life and vitality to where she has so much more
Speaker 1: life and vitality to her. They've done such a more
Speaker 1: effective job than they were doing with Biden was all
Speaker 1: this button up low restoring democracy, and they're just down
Speaker 1: there like, yeah, this dude's weird and we don't like him.
Speaker 2: I would also significantly not underestimate the money advantage because
Speaker 2: one of the main things that we were driving Joe
Speaker 2: Biden out of the race was the fact that the
Speaker 2: donors basically locked it up. They're like, you're done, We're
Speaker 2: not donating to you anymore. Kamala raised two hundred million
Speaker 2: dollars in a single week. I believe that breaks the
Speaker 2: all time record for the amount of dollars ever since.
Speaker 2: I mean, that is alone not something that I would discount,
Speaker 2: and you know, in a certain way, it's cash that
Speaker 2: comes at exactly the right time. Statistically, the vast majority
Speaker 2: of Americans don't pay attention until three weeks before election day.
Speaker 2: Some people are beginning to tune in right now. Another thing,
Speaker 2: and this is one of the caveats for a lot
Speaker 2: of the polling that people should keep in mind. This
Speaker 2: is a very very noisy environment. A lot of people
Speaker 2: are still making up their minds abou Kamala Harris. They
Speaker 2: don't know what they think about Kamala Harris. They're like, hey,
Speaker 2: maybe I need to see her in a debate, I
Speaker 2: need to see her in an interview.
Speaker 3: I got to read it whatever.
Speaker 2: You know, there's a lot of there's a lot of
Speaker 2: change I think in the way that people could view her.
Speaker 2: So it could go down, it could go up significantly too.
Speaker 2: That's the other thing, and I don't think that we
Speaker 2: have yet properly priced in the removal of Biden. Biden
Speaker 2: was a noose around the neck of the Democratic Party
Speaker 2: of basically all of the issues. Because even whenever it
Speaker 2: comes down to trust in the economy, you have to
Speaker 2: factor in and you're like, this guy is so old,
Speaker 2: he's gonna be like he's on the verge of death.
Speaker 2: And when you think about it, just colors the way
Speaker 2: that you look at everything. So it's almost like a
Speaker 2: different light bulb has come on, and it's a different
Speaker 2: heuristic that we're all viewing the entire world, and especially
Speaker 2: for Democratic voters. And actually, I think that's the most
Speaker 2: significant change for me is if we think back to
Speaker 2: twenty twenty and why Trump lost, a lot of it
Speaker 2: came down to not actually just getting the basic mail
Speaker 2: in ballots of like boomer Republicans who didn't show up
Speaker 2: to vote on election day. Democrats loved them statistically, especially
Speaker 2: the older ones, very vote more than everybody else. And
Speaker 2: so to get them, let's say their enthusiasm has gone
Speaker 2: from fifty to one hundred, which effectively is where it is.
Speaker 2: Let's say that the factors. You know, a couple ten
Speaker 2: thousand more votes in every swing state.
Speaker 3: That's it.
Speaker 2: That's the margin of victory. You don't even have to
Speaker 2: convince anybody. You can just drive out normal people voted
Speaker 2: for Obama in twenty twelve, and you can easily clock
Speaker 2: this entire thing. That is a huge, huge change that
Speaker 2: a lot of people are not grow at least the
Speaker 2: smart Republicans I've seen are grappling with this.
Speaker 3: Ye They're like, hey, this enthusiasm.
Speaker 2: This is a major problem because the gap between MAGA,
Speaker 2: which was always turned up to like eighty probably now
Speaker 2: at one hundred versus you know, eighty five Democrats where
Speaker 2: a previous was on the floor around twenties.
Speaker 3: That is the biggest X factor I think right now, no.
Speaker 4: Doubt about it.
Speaker 1: And I mean as much as I object on principle
Speaker 1: to these like white affinity groups that are the white
Speaker 1: dudes for Kamala and white women for Kamala and all
Speaker 1: this stuff, the numbers they're getting on.
Speaker 4: These organizing colds are insane.
Speaker 1: I mean, the white women one had like what one
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand.
Speaker 3: It was the biggest zoom call in all of history.
Speaker 2: I believe the white dudes for Kamala, Harris has like
Speaker 2: one hundred and twelve. Yeah, I mean, look, I agree
Speaker 2: with you. Do we really need to balkan eyes on
Speaker 2: like ex Group Kama. Can we just be for Kamala
Speaker 2: or Trump?
Speaker 3: Please? Is that too much to ask?
Speaker 1: Well, imagine if there was like a white dude for Trump,
Speaker 1: the white people would lose for that anyway. Putting that aside,
Speaker 1: the energy is clearly real because I mean they did
Speaker 1: the black women for Kama.
Speaker 4: It was like fifty thousand black men.
Speaker 1: For Conda was like fifty thousand people on these calls
Speaker 1: raising millions of dollars.
Speaker 4: And these are your.
Speaker 1: People who are on a phone bank and they're gonna
Speaker 1: door knock and they're going to kick in there ten
Speaker 1: bucks a month or whatever. None of that, None of
Speaker 1: it was happening for Joe Biden. The last thing I'll
Speaker 1: say before we can move on to Kamala's first ad
Speaker 1: because it kind of it's kind of a good segue
Speaker 1: to this. One thing that was really important about that
Speaker 1: David Leenhardt tweet thread that we put up before. Is
Speaker 1: he saying, look, you guys are talking all about democracy.
Speaker 1: Kamala has changed the rhetoric she's using about the democracies
Speaker 1: on the ballot. It's less you know, existential and pearl
Speaker 1: clutchy and more like, these are a bunch of weird
Speaker 1: freaks who want to take your stuff away. But she's
Speaker 1: still primarily focused on that. And what he's pointing out is, listen,
Speaker 1: the people who feel like that's their number one thing.
Speaker 1: They're already with you, right the Democratic base now they
Speaker 1: are locked in, they're with you. You're good there, girl.
Speaker 1: Where you need to focus is on economics.
Speaker 4: Funny.
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders made very similar comments to that, and once
Speaker 1: again got accused of being sexist for saying that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just it's insane, because he said very
Speaker 1: similar things when it was Joe Biden.
Speaker 4: He was like, we need to talk about.
Speaker 1: Going after the millionaires and millionaires, you know, his whole thing.
Speaker 1: This is his whole thing, and if you don't, you're
Speaker 1: not going to win. He said something similar about Kamala
Speaker 1: Harris and all these Oh, he's just sexist. He doesn't
Speaker 1: think a woman can win, et cetera, et cetera. No,
Speaker 1: he's one hundred percent correct. If you want to win,
Speaker 1: you need to actually run on an affirmative economic agenda,
Speaker 1: like a very clear one. Just a few things that
Speaker 1: you're going to do that separate you from the Republican
Speaker 1: economic agenda. And if you don't, he's absolutely right that
Speaker 1: you have a great chance of losing the election if
Speaker 1: you aren't focused on the issues that undecided voters care
Speaker 1: the most about. That parlays into the messaging that obviously
Speaker 1: parlays into the VP pick. I will tell you I
Speaker 1: think Tim Wallis is a fantastic job messaging on middle
Speaker 1: class and working class economics. But in any case, I
Speaker 1: think the numbers are really clear that is she actually
Speaker 1: wants to win, which right now today, given the poll numbers,
Speaker 1: I would still give the edge to Donald Trump because
Speaker 1: we know the polls typically when he's been on the ballot,
Speaker 1: and now the polls are all over the place these days,
Speaker 1: but typically when he's on the ballot, they tend to
Speaker 1: understate his support. I would not feel comfortable with where
Speaker 1: the polls are today if I was the Democratic Party,
Speaker 1: if I was Kamala Harris. If you actually want to win,
Speaker 1: you need to be clear about an affirmative economic agenda.
Speaker 1: I think the numbers are really clear on that.
Speaker 2: That's a good transition then to the ad. So we
Speaker 2: can see here kind of what she's going with. And
Speaker 2: this is part of where her getting the Biden campaign
Speaker 2: team and all of the apparatus transitioning over to her
Speaker 2: not be you know, the benefit that some people think
Speaker 2: it is. It is in case she's bad at running.
Speaker 2: You know, she's bad at running organizations. She ran a
Speaker 2: disastrous campaign last time around. But their emphasis and their
Speaker 2: knowledge of like how to campaign and prosecute the case
Speaker 2: may not be exactly the one that you said, simply
Speaker 2: because Biden is not capable of they're doing that.
Speaker 3: He's not really capable of doing anything anyway.
Speaker 2: Let's take a listen here to her very first ad
Speaker 2: and compare some of that messaging, looking at the polling
Speaker 2: and kind of where things could trend from there.
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 5: In this election, we each face a question what kind
Speaker 5: of country do we want to live in? There are
Speaker 5: some people who think we should be a country of chaos,
Speaker 5: of fear of hate, but us, we choose something different.
Speaker 5: We choose freedom, the freedom not just to get fine,
Speaker 5: but get ahead, the freedom to be saved from gun violence,
Speaker 5: the freedom to make decisions about your own body. We
Speaker 5: choose a future where no child lives in poverty, where
Speaker 5: we can all afford health care, where no one is
Speaker 5: above the law.
Speaker 2: We believe in.
Speaker 5: The promise of America, and we're ready to fight for
Speaker 5: it because when we fight, we win. So join us.
Speaker 5: Go to Kamalaharis dot com and let's get to work Comma.
Speaker 3: Cable running because I win.
Speaker 4: I don't quit on themselves.
Speaker 2: So it gives you a taste kind of that. I
Speaker 2: don't know, what do you think. I mean, the abortion
Speaker 2: messaging on that is always very potent. I would say
Speaker 2: that that's one of the Democrats road to victory, but
Speaker 2: I didn't see enough there to try and convince people
Speaker 2: to vote for it. I mean, look, at the same time,
Speaker 2: it's our very first ad, right they need to get
Speaker 2: cross ads and all that.
Speaker 3: I would say it was a bad ad.
Speaker 2: It's one of those where as long as you hammer
Speaker 2: home abortion the quote unquote freedom agenda, and you like
Speaker 2: mention some economics there at the end.
Speaker 3: I don't know. I wouldn't say it was the best.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't say it was bad either.
Speaker 2: It's definitely better than whatever Joe Biden was putting up there,
Speaker 2: and as part of the difficulty and all this analysis,
Speaker 2: the normal rules don't apply because when your previous candidate
Speaker 2: was so old and people were so despondent, I mean,
Speaker 2: and that's one thing when you can't really count out
Speaker 2: so many people who were really hated Donald Trump and
Speaker 2: we're just resigned to lost that we're in a state
Speaker 2: of what we can only describe is basically depression. And
Speaker 2: then that flipped on a complete dime, and their enthusiasm
Speaker 2: here from the white Lady call or.
Speaker 3: What pink you know, on the on the zoom and
Speaker 3: all that. Listen.
Speaker 2: I can make fun of it all I want, and
Speaker 2: I do think it's a weird phenomenon, but I am
Speaker 2: not stupid enough to say, hey that this is not
Speaker 2: going to matter. This stuff matters a lot whenever it
Speaker 2: comes to voting, and given the potency they've been able
Speaker 2: to bring to politics from Ohio to Kentucky to Kansas,
Speaker 2: never count them out.
Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah, no, I actually I think it's a good ad.
Speaker 1: I think it's a good opening ad, and mostly not
Speaker 1: because of the like, you know, the specific things that
Speaker 1: she says about abortion or you know, children in poverty
Speaker 1: or healthcare or whatever. It's more just it's joyful, it
Speaker 1: feels fresh, it feels joyful. Joe Biden couldn't put it out.
Speaker 1: Donald Trump couldn't put it out. And so if you
Speaker 1: feel like the energy in this election, which I think
Speaker 1: it is, is, uh, we need something different, we want change,
Speaker 1: we want a different vibe. Like to me, this ad,
Speaker 1: the essence of it captures that kind of sense of
Speaker 1: joy and this sense of a vibe shift and also
Speaker 1: the off the charts enthusiasm on the Democratic side for
Speaker 1: this new candidate. So as an opening pitch, I think
Speaker 1: it's I think it's actually very good. Also, it's also
Speaker 1: worth talking a little bit about the ad spend to
Speaker 1: this point. She hasn't she hasn't I think, still really
Speaker 1: gone up on the air in a significant way. So
Speaker 1: Trump is dramatically outspending her at this point in the
Speaker 1: battleground states. The other thing that's worth mentioning is while
Speaker 1: Biden was absolutely tanking, part of what was holding him
Speaker 1: up at all was he was dramatically outspending Trump in
Speaker 1: the battle ground states. And even with that dramatic outspend,
Speaker 1: we saw the way the poll numbers were trending. So
Speaker 1: you can look at this and say wow, even without
Speaker 1: really spending any money yet and on the back of, of course,
Speaker 1: a wave of free media coverage, et cetera, Kamala Harris
Speaker 1: has really come up and given the Democrats a fighting chance.
Speaker 1: Here to your point about the you know, enthusiasm among women,
Speaker 1: we can put this up on the screen presidential polling
Speaker 1: among suburban women. So, Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump by
Speaker 1: twelve points among suburban women fifty two to forty. In
Speaker 1: the last Biden poll it was basically tied Biden forty four,
Speaker 1: Trump forty one. This is Harris sex, which tends to
Speaker 1: be kind of a Republican leaning poll. But so I
Speaker 1: would just pay attention to the trend here. She is
Speaker 1: doing much, much, much much better among this demographic set.
Speaker 1: Just on the top line numbers. And then and when
Speaker 1: you talk about, you know, I'm going to organize, I'm
Speaker 1: going to be on the white ladies call, I'm going
Speaker 1: to phone bank, I'm going to kick in some money,
Speaker 1: et cetera, those numbers are even more astonishing what she's been.
Speaker 3: Able to pull off.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's look again, I'm not many people are like,
Speaker 2: how can you not point out all the flaws the
Speaker 2: whole point of the segment is to just show, look,
Speaker 2: she's still losing, but it's just you're in a better
Speaker 2: position than anybody Joe Biden ever could have been. As
Speaker 2: I said, I would probably give her forty you know,
Speaker 2: sixty forty, i'd put it in Trump direction, while I
Speaker 2: was giving Biden a ten percent chance victory. Yeah, so
Speaker 2: that's a massive change if we think about what the
Speaker 2: percentage base are. And you know, I think I made
Speaker 2: a joke the ladies election. I really think that's what
Speaker 2: it's all going to be about, especially whenever you've got man.
Speaker 2: This is one of those where again previously everyone decided
Speaker 2: after Hillary loss it was sexism or whatever that cost her.
Speaker 2: I don't think there was ever a better time to
Speaker 2: have a woman who is at the top of the
Speaker 2: Democratic Party. You have a huge amount of suburban white
Speaker 2: women especially who are voting for them in bigger numbers
Speaker 2: than ever before, and when abortion is the centerpiece. Can't
Speaker 2: look even as a guy talking about abortion, it's weird,
Speaker 2: right because one of the other things, what do people
Speaker 2: always say, well, you don't know the stakes. I mean,
Speaker 2: in a certain sense, they're not wrong, like there is
Speaker 2: something like personal about the issue. Not saying I'm not
Speaker 2: allowed to have an opinion, but it feels strange. But
Speaker 2: to have a woman who's quote unquote prosecuting the case
Speaker 2: on or to talk about it, I think as a strength,
Speaker 2: it's one of those where, look, I think you can
Speaker 2: drive people out more, you can talk about it more
Speaker 2: personal terms, and especially whenever it's against Trump and the
Speaker 2: person who appointed all the people for Rowe versus Wade,
Speaker 2: it's gonna hit different than Joe Biden, who you know,
Speaker 2: I don't know, it's weird, like old energy or whatever
Speaker 2: about it. He never particularly found his sweet spot on abortion.
Speaker 2: He was just a beneficiary of it. Part of the
Speaker 2: reason why people like Gretchen Whitmer and other politicians like
Speaker 2: her have been doing so much better than Joe Biden
Speaker 2: at a state by state levels. So anyway, I would
Speaker 2: put that where I probably this is probably the best
Speaker 2: time to ever have a Democrat who's a woman at
Speaker 2: the top of the ticket.
Speaker 1: She benefits from the fact she is the sitting vice president,
Speaker 1: so you know, that helps people imagine her in the role.
Speaker 1: That's always the benefit of being the sitting vice president.
Speaker 1: That's why they so often go on to be their
Speaker 1: party's dominees. And you know, in history becoming the president
Speaker 1: of the United States, so she benefits from that.
Speaker 4: But she seems to be at this point.
Speaker 1: Kind of unsaddled by the Biden track record and the
Speaker 1: way people feel about the Biden administration, because they're not
Speaker 1: wrong to perceive she was on the ounce with them,
Speaker 1: you know. So she has this at this point, this
Speaker 1: kind of sweet spot of getting the benefits of being
Speaker 1: in the office and having all of the credibility that
Speaker 1: that confers without having to be saddled with the record
Speaker 1: and the you know, at least in public perception. I'm
Speaker 1: not saying that's the way people should look at it,
Speaker 1: but in terms of public perception, she's not burdened by
Speaker 1: the record and is being able to shake off the
Speaker 1: sort of Biden funk very quickly. If we just look
Speaker 1: at her favorability rating to your point on abortion, just
Speaker 1: to follow up there, there are very few things that
Speaker 1: I think Kamala Harris actually believes.
Speaker 4: Like she's finger in the wood. There's no doubt.
Speaker 1: You look at her record in California versus in the
Speaker 1: Senate versus when she's running for president versus under Biden.
Speaker 4: I mean, she's all over the place.
Speaker 1: She clearly does you know wherever she thinks it's most
Speaker 1: advantageous to be no doubt about that. The one issue
Speaker 1: where I think she that's probably not true is abortion. Yeah, Like,
Speaker 1: I think she really believes it. I think she's very
Speaker 1: credible on it. And Joe Biden, he is has throughout
Speaker 1: his career barely been pro choice.
Speaker 4: He's been one of the most pro life Democrats.
Speaker 1: He's Catholic, like his own faith, you know, is impacts
Speaker 1: the way he views the issue. And then his just
Speaker 1: identity is like an old dude who doesn't have a
Speaker 1: direct connect to the issue and hasn't had a direct
Speaker 1: connect to the issue for a long time. Yeah, he
Speaker 1: was not a good messenger. He didn't want to talk
Speaker 1: it about it, He didn't really talk about it much,
Speaker 1: and so on. That vote on that issue, which is
Speaker 1: very animating at this point, is the most animating culture
Speaker 1: war issue I think in the country right now. She
Speaker 1: is an effective and credible messenger. And that's why that's
Speaker 1: one of the reasons why I feel like, actually, counter
Speaker 1: to the narrative of like, oh my god, we're to
Speaker 1: racist and sex is still elect a woman, I actually
Speaker 1: think that her gender in particular is an affirmative asset
Speaker 1: for her in this moment as a Democrat.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again, you know, this is where you got
Speaker 2: to kind of put the media programming out and try
Speaker 2: and look at this subjectively. It's like, in a time
Speaker 2: I've done, how many monologues have I done about how
Speaker 2: we're bifurcating amongst gender lines. It's like, well, if you're
Speaker 2: going to be a predominantly female party, especially with the
Speaker 2: volunteers and with the swing base, then you probably should
Speaker 2: have a woman.
Speaker 3: In the top of the decade. It's one at that point.
Speaker 2: It's like one of those where it's very obvious if
Speaker 2: you look at it is, if you just look at
Speaker 2: where the trends are going, the base coalition, the most volunteers.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's an accident that the biggest zoom
Speaker 2: call in history was literally white women for Kamala that
Speaker 2: Hammens And where's a lot of the money coming from.
Speaker 2: Who are the big female celebrity Jennifer Aniston and all
Speaker 2: these other people were war They're going to war exactly.
Speaker 3: It's like, look, I don't count them out.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 2: It's one of those where I've seen enough recent evidence
Speaker 2: in politics to show that they're very very persuasive, and
Speaker 2: that they can. They again, they vote more than anybody else.
Speaker 2: If I am Trump, I am JD. They need to
Speaker 2: run as far away from abortion as humanly possible. Now,
Speaker 2: obviously the Democrats are going to try it not to
Speaker 2: so I still believe that this will in a Trump victory.
Speaker 2: This will be the immigration economy election. I think all
Speaker 2: of the money that they're going to spend is Kamala.
Speaker 2: Borders are Kamala open border and everything, and then all
Speaker 2: the Democrats should be talking about is abortion and the
Speaker 2: economy as well. We can war over the economy, and
Speaker 2: then the defining issue of either will come to decide
Speaker 2: who actually wins in these especially in the swing States,
Speaker 2: because that is where too both abortion and immigration are
Speaker 2: very very hot issues.
Speaker 3: Because they're genuinely contested.
Speaker 2: There are differing views, and I also would say dramatic, right,
Speaker 2: because on the economy, it's one of those where look,
Speaker 2: I think it's difficult to say it's parse the nuance
Speaker 2: and child tax credit, et cetera.
Speaker 3: For a lot of people. They're not looking at it
Speaker 3: in those terms.
Speaker 2: But let's be honest, I mean the daylight between Kamala
Speaker 2: and Trump on immigration is you know, titanic, and same
Speaker 2: on abortion.
Speaker 3: You literally have somebody.
Speaker 2: Who appointed the justices that took down Roversuwade and somebody
Speaker 2: who says, I want to codify it nationwide.
Speaker 3: The difference between that, again is titanic and that.
Speaker 2: Is where I get the Barry Goldwater line a time
Speaker 2: for choosing. I really believe that's where the sorting in
Speaker 2: the individual mind of people as to what's going to
Speaker 2: get them out to the to the ballot box.
Speaker 3: That's where it will come down to.
Speaker 2: And that's the actual issue set that they're going to
Speaker 2: have to work on, both of them, because they're both
Speaker 2: going to try and spend billions of dollars either way
Speaker 2: to convince people on the other side.
Speaker 1: Let me just ask you this before we move on
Speaker 1: to the VP thing. What do you think of the
Speaker 1: like We actually are going to talk about this a
Speaker 1: little more in the VP conversation, but what do you
Speaker 1: think of the like these people are just weird thing?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I look, this is this is I'm
Speaker 2: going to say this for everybody. It is very difficult
Speaker 2: for me to be ejective. JD is somebody who I
Speaker 2: have known for a long time. I knew him on
Speaker 2: a personal level. So it is hard for me to
Speaker 2: sit here and to separate my own personal feelings and not.
Speaker 2: So I've tried to take a pull of the women
Speaker 2: in my life, yeah, and others who I talk to,
Speaker 2: and I think it breaks along relatively partisan lines. So
Speaker 2: amongst my pro life friends, they don't care at all
Speaker 2: about the JD cat lady comments that said. My Democratic
Speaker 2: friends or like lean socially liberal, they were never going
Speaker 2: to vote for Trump either, but it does really piss
Speaker 2: them off. So my question is then, well, were you
Speaker 2: ever going to vote? Are you really going to vote
Speaker 2: on this? Were you already voting for Biden or not?
Speaker 2: The weird thing is where look? And again, you know,
Speaker 2: this is very difficult for me because it's like, well,
Speaker 2: what do people find weird? I think for a lot
Speaker 2: of women people to the whole childless cat lady thing,
Speaker 2: it pisses them off. But then if you're like right wing,
Speaker 2: you're like, okay, well what pisses you? What do you
Speaker 2: find weird? Like drag queen transgenderism. You've got a bunch
Speaker 2: of transflags here in the Kamala add I find that
Speaker 2: quite weird.
Speaker 3: But that's not what liberal people find weird.
Speaker 2: So that's where I'm like, it's going to be about
Speaker 2: who you what you personally find weird and objectionable.
Speaker 3: Does that make sense? That's That's the only way I
Speaker 3: can put it. Is it.
Speaker 2: I think it's very in the eye of the beholder,
Speaker 2: and I remain to be seen how it actually will
Speaker 2: be digested by the public.
Speaker 1: I think it's so much better messaging than the like
Speaker 1: we must restore democracy. You know, It's just it's like
Speaker 1: the way that a that a normal person would talk
Speaker 1: about a person, a candidate, et cetera.
Speaker 4: And you know, taking Trump and JD.
Speaker 1: Out of it because I don't want to, you know, it's.
Speaker 4: It's uncomfortable for me. Also, no, he's your friend.
Speaker 3: When I will have a panel tomorrow where we're gon
Speaker 3: we're going.
Speaker 7: To take into the catless cat lady situation.
Speaker 1: But you know, I think part of why Republicans underperformed
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two was we've been saying extremism right,
Speaker 1: stop this deal and you know, abortion and this whole
Speaker 1: this group of issues that just read as like fringe extremism,
Speaker 1: weird sort of like a normy way of defining that is, like,
Speaker 1: you guys are in these you know, weird online niche subcultures,
Speaker 1: floating crazy ideas like oh, if you're you have more
Speaker 1: more kids you have, the more you get to vote,
Speaker 1: which is pretty antithetical to the way most people feel. Like, Okay,
Speaker 1: one person, one vote, seems like kind of a thing
Speaker 1: we've been doing here for a while and seems like
Speaker 1: a pretty good bedrock principle. So I think that putting
Speaker 1: that vibe and that label over everything they do, it's
Speaker 1: honestly kind of trumpy, like the way he's in the
Speaker 1: past with Crooked Hillary, for example, been able to tag
Speaker 1: her with a label that then everything kind of feeds
Speaker 1: into and it creates this overarching image. I actually think
Speaker 1: it is very effective and it's interesting, and this can
Speaker 1: help a segue after I get your reaction to the
Speaker 1: VP thing, because it was Tim Wallas, the governor of Minnesota,
Speaker 1: who came up with that, the former high school teacher
Speaker 1: who has this, you know, sense of how to talk
Speaker 1: to normal people very clearly, who would workshop this and
Speaker 1: gotten big response to it. And that's he says it
Speaker 1: on cable news and it just takes off because it
Speaker 1: landed in this way of like, yeah, that's that's it.
Speaker 1: That's the way to kind of frame this whole thing
Speaker 1: that's going on.
Speaker 3: I would put it this way.
Speaker 2: It connects to why Republicans lost in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 2: which was it was about election denialism, right, it was
Speaker 2: about the whole like stop the steal vibe of Trump sycophancy,
Speaker 2: but a lot of it is this is where look,
Speaker 2: this is my biggest difference from JD and many other
Speaker 2: Republicans is I'm not Christian.
Speaker 3: I'm not like a hardcore Christian.
Speaker 2: And that is weird because in America today, much of
Speaker 2: the chagrin of my Christian friends, we are a very
Speaker 2: socially liberal country. Compared to where we were ten years ago,
Speaker 2: compared to where we go twenty five years ago, we
Speaker 2: live in a different America. Social libertarianism is the predominant
Speaker 2: strain of how most people view social issues. Even on
Speaker 2: the trans thing. It's not so much that the objection
Speaker 2: for the average person is like, oh, well, we need
Speaker 2: to block this and ban it. It's like, well, some
Speaker 2: people should be able to make their own choice up
Speaker 2: until the age of eighteen, but let's keep it away
Speaker 2: from kids, right. And that's actually very different than the
Speaker 2: way if you were to ask conservative Catholics, They're like, no,
Speaker 2: I need to ban this straight up. And then same
Speaker 2: with abortion, where anybody who's trying to tell you what
Speaker 2: to do. The social ninism, there is a social ninism
Speaker 2: of the BLM moment where everyone's like, you're not if.
Speaker 3: You're not actively anti racist spend, you're a racist.
Speaker 2: Like hold on, don't tell me who the fuck I am, right,
Speaker 2: Like I have my own ideas, don't tell me to
Speaker 2: use certain pronouns, etc.
Speaker 3: Well, this is kind of the like.
Speaker 2: As a person who grew up amongst evangelical Christians in
Speaker 2: the nineties in Texas, I understand this viscerally and deeply,
Speaker 2: where when people try to tell you how to live
Speaker 2: your life right whenever what you're doing, it's an annoying
Speaker 2: part of the reason I hate the modern left.
Speaker 3: That's exactly the same why So there.
Speaker 2: It gets to the telling you what to do and
Speaker 2: being because authoritarian is not even the.
Speaker 3: Right word, but being prescriptive based.
Speaker 2: On something that the vast majority of the Americans no
Speaker 2: longer quote unquote believe in. That is where I think
Speaker 2: it probably connects more than anything, And I think that's
Speaker 2: the kindest way.
Speaker 4: I can put this well, there's a whole.
Speaker 1: Ecosystem incentive also, and I see this on the left too,
Speaker 1: where the way to get clout is to be as
Speaker 1: like edgy and controversial. So specifically with regard to Jadie
Speaker 1: Vance and I'm talking about parents whatever, like if you're
Speaker 1: going to come out in favor of a child tax credit,
Speaker 1: first of all, our tax code already advantages that.
Speaker 3: Rishs me off.
Speaker 4: But but hold on, let me, let me just finish
Speaker 4: my thought.
Speaker 1: If you're going to come out in favor of child taxer, okay,
Speaker 1: seventy percent of the country agrees with you. But he
Speaker 1: intentionally phrased it in a way to make it feel
Speaker 1: edgy and like counterculture, because that's what is rewarded in
Speaker 1: online ecosystems. And he, you know, always kind of had
Speaker 1: to like prove himself to the magabas because he was
Speaker 1: the guy who was saying Trump, maybe America Hitler and
Speaker 1: all of this, so he's had to prove himself really hardcore.
Speaker 1: So he phrases it in a way rather than like, hey,
Speaker 1: you know, like parenthood is amazing and we need to
Speaker 1: help parents and families and kids, et cetera. Instead it's
Speaker 1: like we need to judge and punish those who are
Speaker 1: childless and don't have kids, and so you he framed
Speaker 1: it in the most possible intentionally framed it in the
Speaker 1: most like off putting, like what the hell are you
Speaker 1: talking about? This is weird kind of a way, because
Speaker 1: all of the rewards in the ecosystem are to being
Speaker 1: edgy and fringe versus you know, on a previous media ecosystem,
Speaker 1: all of the rewards would be how do I frame
Speaker 1: my policy in a way that appeals broadly to people
Speaker 1: and makes the best case for it and doesn't like
Speaker 1: instantly repel half the population.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's a mistake that the clips that
Speaker 2: have gone viral about JD are all running in the
Speaker 2: Republican primary.
Speaker 4: That's right, Josh me, Yeah, that's exactly right.
Speaker 3: Twenty one, right, and that's when he was on Tucker
Speaker 3: and that's when he was trying.
Speaker 4: To apply to be as MAGA as well.
Speaker 2: And I don't think it's a mistake that those of
Speaker 2: what's gone most viral, because that's not really how he's
Speaker 2: talked since post twenty twenty two, right, And that is
Speaker 2: I would say a lesson to people out there. It's
Speaker 2: also varyative of the left right, where we had the
Speaker 2: same like you have to prove your bona fides and Shibolitz.
Speaker 2: And actually a lot of the Republican attack ads on
Speaker 2: Kamala are coming from the Democratic debates and the primary.
Speaker 2: Don't think it's a mistake healthcare to illegal immigrants. You're
Speaker 2: not running on that in a prime or a general election,
Speaker 2: but there's a clip and it exists, So yeah, I
Speaker 2: think you're correct. There definitely is a rewards system that
Speaker 2: is built and all of that. I will just say
Speaker 2: on the policy. Seeing Dave Portnoy and these people freak
Speaker 2: out about it, He's like, why should I have to
Speaker 2: pay taxes more as a childless person, It's like, well,
Speaker 2: you already do, dude. The US tax code is built
Speaker 2: to incentivize marriage and having children. Just so we all
Speaker 2: understand dependence and the marriage penalty quote unquote for or whatever,
Speaker 2: the marriage incentive where you have a higher deduction limit, etc.
Speaker 2: So the US tax code is already built that way.
Speaker 2: I'm just saying, so all of you, if you think
Speaker 2: that the progressive tax code or whatever is fair, then
Speaker 2: you agree with that baseline message. And that's the only
Speaker 2: thing that's annoyed me is there is this weird libertarian
Speaker 2: instinct where like if you can't have kids, or if
Speaker 2: you can't afford to have kids, then you shouldn't have
Speaker 2: any kids.
Speaker 3: And it's like, well, what society we do want to
Speaker 3: live in?
Speaker 2: Mister Portnoy's worth two hundred million dollars or whatever. So
Speaker 2: I will just say that, but that is a tension.
Speaker 2: I agree with you.
Speaker 4: Which do you feel like poor?
Speaker 1: I don't know all the things announce on his politics,
Speaker 1: but I feel like it could. I mean, he is
Speaker 1: like a conservative republic business.
Speaker 3: Like he's a libertarian, like, yeah, but that.
Speaker 4: Makes sense from a libertarian perspective. His yeah, his position
Speaker 4: is consistent with a libertarian perspective.
Speaker 3: No, No, you're right, but I mean I think that's
Speaker 3: a stupid view.
Speaker 8: I don't agree with you. It's like obvious, you know,
Speaker 8: if you live in a society, the tax code is
Speaker 8: already built. The tax code is built to incentivize at
Speaker 8: a personal level, getting married, having children, starting a business,
Speaker 8: and owning real estate. Basically those were actually now solar
Speaker 8: if we include the IRA, I think that's fine.
Speaker 3: I think those are good things. We should use the tax.
Speaker 2: Code to try and have more socially desirable outcomes. Ninety
Speaker 2: nine point nine percent of people at an individual level
Speaker 2: would agree with me on that. Then, yes, whenever it
Speaker 2: comes to the framing, et cetera, I would just say
Speaker 2: that the incentive structures for winning a Republican primary do
Speaker 2: not always, you know, obviously, come out to being beneficial
Speaker 2: in a general election, and that is part of what
Speaker 2: led so many Republicans down a path to defeat back
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two. Blake Masters is another perfect example
Speaker 2: where you had a guy running in Arizona who has
Speaker 2: to out Maga everybody else.
Speaker 3: And what does he do.
Speaker 2: He starts talking about not just repealing Roe versus Wade,
Speaker 2: He's in a national pro life legislation.
Speaker 3: He starts talking about going after.
Speaker 2: Like Griswold and like birth control right, and people are like,
Speaker 2: whoa hold on a second, dude.
Speaker 3: What's happening here?
Speaker 2: And again, that was an incentive structure that was built
Speaker 2: in to winning a hard right prime. If you look
Speaker 2: at what he's in running right now, him versus I
Speaker 2: don't even know this guy's name, Abe Hammada or whatever.
Speaker 3: This is a crazy primary.
Speaker 2: It's all about who's more Maga than American. Yeah, Trump's
Speaker 2: now endorsed both of them. Was the most Trump thing
Speaker 2: of all time. Carrie Lake is backing Abe, so even
Speaker 2: figure out who's the most maga on the right. If
Speaker 2: you guys want to go see real madness, go look
Speaker 2: at some of the ads they're running against.
Speaker 1: But again, the other problem with Blake Masters was that
Speaker 1: he just came off as weird, like in his ads,
Speaker 1: in his public appearances, you were just like, the sky
Speaker 1: is weird, and then you hear, you know, his ideas
Speaker 1: also feel weird and fringe.
Speaker 3: Whatever.
Speaker 1: But that's why I think the tach the tag does work.
Speaker 1: I do think that is effective. But yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: it's going to be it's going to be interesting to
Speaker 1: see how they respond to all of this. And I
Speaker 1: also don't want to overstate how much the VP pick matters,
Speaker 1: but I do think that having jd Vance on the
Speaker 1: ticket with Trump, especially now that especially now that you
Speaker 1: have Kamala Harris as the Democrat's choice, like, it makes
Speaker 1: the contrast more stark. It makes it makes it easier
Speaker 1: for them to land those sorts of attacks. And then
Speaker 1: just one other thing that's like, you know, just my
Speaker 1: nerdy self gets irritated about this conversation is like, it
Speaker 1: was Democrats who supported the child tax credit overwhelmingly. So
Speaker 1: if we're like in the business of you know, we
Speaker 1: should have a child tax credit, it's like, you're right,
Speaker 1: Gamlah Haarre supported one and the Republicans didn't.
Speaker 3: So yeah, fair.
Speaker 2: Point, especially if you're talking about Mitch mcconnley and all that.
Speaker 2: I think my advice for the Republicans is stop playing
Speaker 2: the media game. I saw Vivek being like, it's not weird,
Speaker 2: it's June. I'm like, guys, when you are defending what
Speaker 2: is the ironclad ruined politics, When you're explaining yourself or
Speaker 2: defending yourself, you lost.
Speaker 3: So what do we do. We don't talk about weird.
Speaker 2: We're talking about immigration because that's the number one area
Speaker 2: where most Americans agree with Republicans and Trump, and we're
Speaker 2: not talking about abortion. That's the only thing that we're
Speaker 2: talking about. In fact, something that Jad did which I
Speaker 2: thought was smart, is he I don't exactly know what happened,
Speaker 2: but Kamala was like see watching him transform back into
Speaker 2: a normally Republican is interesting to me because in the
Speaker 2: primary and all of that, a lot of this didn't
Speaker 2: come out, but you forget how general election politics really works.
Speaker 2: If something about Comma questions what has he ever done
Speaker 2: for this country? I think it was something like that,
Speaker 2: and he's like.
Speaker 3: All it was a marine in Iraq.
Speaker 2: I served my country and I raised you know, I
Speaker 2: fought for my country. And I was like, oh, this
Speaker 2: is such a return to like four just like almost
Speaker 2: like Republican tropes about who's served and who's not. But
Speaker 2: you forget that that actually lands with a lot of people.
Speaker 2: He has not, you know, defended himself whatever against weird
Speaker 2: and I would not play that game. That's not a
Speaker 2: game that I think you're going to win because it's
Speaker 2: a frame which you don't even want to be in the.
Speaker 1: Fighting on their battleground exactly your far off Hillary Clinton
Speaker 1: was on therapy like I'm not crooked. It's like, okay,
Speaker 1: well now we're just fighting on there.
Speaker 3: She did fight it right, and that's watching right.
Speaker 1: I mean, so yeah, anytime you're fighting on the battleground,
Speaker 1: your enemy lays out you were likely losing. And it's
Speaker 1: something that Trump has been brilliant.
Speaker 3: Yeah, she change the conversation.
Speaker 4: He is has been.
Speaker 1: That has been his greatest political skill has been able
Speaker 1: to set the terms of the conversation, and so I
Speaker 1: think it has to be driving him insane that you know,
Speaker 1: more weeks so after his assassination attempt and no one's
Speaker 1: talking about that, like searches for it have fallen off
Speaker 1: a cliff. All of the cable news discussion et cetera.
Speaker 1: News media discussion is around Kammlin, whoever VP pick is
Speaker 1: going to be and isn't Jadey Vance, weird and child
Speaker 1: as cat ladies. And it has been a rare period
Speaker 1: where Democrats have actually been setting the terms of the conversation.
Speaker 1: And you know, I don't think that they'll be able
Speaker 1: to continue that indefinitely because this is a skill he
Speaker 1: continues to possess and he'll say something wild and send
Speaker 1: everybody else into a frenzy to discuss it, et cetera,
Speaker 1: et cetera. But that's part of why she has come
Speaker 1: up in the polls so quickly the race is completely reset,
Speaker 1: is because they have been very effective at and E Listen,
Speaker 1: the media wants them to succeed. So I don't want
Speaker 1: to deny that onside of Fox News wants them to succeed.
Speaker 1: But they are playing the cards. They've been dealt very well.
Speaker 1: Right now, which almost never happens.
Speaker 2: So the media is calling it honeymoon phase, and I
Speaker 2: think I totally agree with that. Yeah, that's it, that
Speaker 2: we are in the honeymoon phase of the Democrats. There
Speaker 2: will be a disaster interview coming soon. There will be
Speaker 2: a Trump comment coming soon. There will be I mean, listen,
Speaker 2: we're going to the DNC. You know, some crazy shit's
Speaker 2: going to go down at the DNC.
Speaker 3: I don't know what.
Speaker 2: Maybe some un committed delegates are going to scream in
Speaker 2: the middle of the thing. Maybe somebody's going to try
Speaker 2: and challenge her, the speech is going to go wrong, plagiarism.
Speaker 3: We never know.
Speaker 2: And that's the thing in America. If the last two
Speaker 2: months have taught you anything is that things can change.
Speaker 4: We don't forget anything.
Speaker 3: Ye things can change, folks. So never just.
Speaker 2: Think that whatever the current dynamic is is going to
Speaker 2: go on forever, because it could be the two months
Speaker 2: from now, we won't even remember this entire conversation.
Speaker 1: Let's get to the VP conversation that I've teased like
Speaker 1: eighteen times at this point, so we're getting a clearer
Speaker 1: picture of who the type top candidates are likely to be.
Speaker 1: It's actually funny because two different news organizations reported two
Speaker 1: different like this is definitely her top three, but it
Speaker 1: looks like the top contenders are Governor Tim Walls of Minnesota.
Speaker 1: My personal faith. Really, he's former high school teacher, he's
Speaker 1: a veteran. He flipped a very red district in Minnesota.
Speaker 1: He wins the state easily. I'm going to play in
Speaker 1: a minute. He speaks very, very comfortably and easily about
Speaker 1: middle class issues. And he's actually the one that came
Speaker 1: up with the weird tag that I do think is effective.
Speaker 1: Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro, whose favorability ratings in the
Speaker 1: state are sky high. Newpole had him at like sixty
Speaker 1: one percent approval rating in the state of Pennsylvania. He
Speaker 1: won his election for governor so easily, running against a
Speaker 1: guy who, again a lot of people thought was pretty weird.
Speaker 1: He sounds like Jewish Obama, many are saying. I think
Speaker 1: when we play some of him, you will see that
Speaker 1: as well. Governor Andy Basheer of Kentucky. Andy is the
Speaker 1: most popular Democratic governor in the entire country, even in
Speaker 1: spite of the fact that first of all he was governing.
Speaker 1: He got himself reelected. He was governor during a very
Speaker 1: fraught political time in terms of COVID in what is
Speaker 1: a now a hard read state, and yet he still
Speaker 1: has very high rating. He is pitching himself hard for
Speaker 1: the job and really trying to strike like an apple
Speaker 1: lachin contrast with Jade Vance as well, that's been effective
Speaker 1: at times. You have another governor, North Carolina's governor, Roy Cooper.
Speaker 1: He and Kamala have known each other for quite a while,
Speaker 1: going back to their time as ag another Democrat winning
Speaker 1: in in you know, fairly read state, raising the question,
Speaker 1: especially with the different coalition Kamala brings the table. Hey,
Speaker 1: if we have Roy Cooper on the ticket, is a
Speaker 1: possible butt North Carolina in play. Joe Biden only lost
Speaker 1: it by less than two points last time around, so
Speaker 1: question mark there. And then the other one people are
Speaker 1: talking about is Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, astronaut swing.
Speaker 4: State, etc.
Speaker 1: He also has a pretty high approval rating within the
Speaker 1: state of Arizona. Well known guy, has some issue unions
Speaker 1: or not in love with him. And then there's also
Speaker 1: the issue of initially, if he were to be VP,
Speaker 1: the Democratic governor would pick his replacement. However, that replacement
Speaker 1: then would have to run again in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: I think it is so a little bit you know,
Speaker 1: diceier in terms of the Senate and giving up that seat.
Speaker 1: In any case, we put together because we wanted to
Speaker 1: go deep on each of these As her pick is
Speaker 1: relatively imminent, we'll probably get it. I think within like
Speaker 1: the next week, I'll learn who her top pick is.
Speaker 1: So we wanted to go deep on each of these individuals,
Speaker 1: give you, guys, a real sense of them. Our team
Speaker 1: has done a fantastic job pulling together some clips so
Speaker 1: you can get, you know, a sense of the type
Speaker 1: of rhetoric and their affect, their vibe, so to speak.
Speaker 4: So let's go.
Speaker 1: Ahead and start with Minnesota Governor Tim Walls talking here recently.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 9: Why is it so hard to understand when somebody else
Speaker 9: gets some right.
Speaker 6: It's not like a damn pie.
Speaker 9: Oh somebody got a bigger piece of I.
Speaker 6: I don't get it. Rights aren't that way. There's enough
Speaker 6: for everybody. There's enough for everybody to be included.
Speaker 9: Same thing with job, same thing with housing, same thing
Speaker 9: with healthcare.
Speaker 6: So you saw it. We are not going to allow
Speaker 6: them to make the case.
Speaker 9: Yes they're a threat, but we're not going to stay
Speaker 9: in their frame. We're not going to stay where they're at.
Speaker 6: We're not going to play their game.
Speaker 9: We called them out for the weird nonsense that they believe,
Speaker 9: and we presented a different argument to the American public,
Speaker 9: one where everybody matters, one where we can achieve, one
Speaker 9: where we solve problems.
Speaker 1: So he's got a lot of pluses in terms of
Speaker 1: he's a very good communicator. He's got a good natural
Speaker 1: everyman vibe. For those of you who are just listening,
Speaker 1: he's there and just like a T shirt and a hat,
Speaker 1: and it doesn't feel try hard. It feels very natural.
Speaker 1: He flipped a red congressional seat. This is James Medlock
Speaker 1: tweeted this this morning in a largely rural area. Held
Speaker 1: it even in a cycle where Trump won that district
Speaker 1: by plus fifteen. He's the only Democrat to win that
Speaker 1: district since nineteen ninety two. Like you said, very popular
Speaker 1: in Minnesota, and he has the rare combination of having
Speaker 1: the like moderate everyman vibe, but his track record in
Speaker 1: the state is really quite impressive. With a one seat majority,
Speaker 1: they've they've passed universal free school lunches. They did a
Speaker 1: great legislation on labor, on wages, on the environment, sort
Speaker 1: of across the board in terms of the progressive priorities,
Speaker 1: so you would.
Speaker 4: Be very much pleasing.
Speaker 1: I can tell you the progressive young base of the
Speaker 1: party in particular, who are very walls pilled at this point,
Speaker 1: I think for good reason. But he also has that
Speaker 1: like swing state appeal and Midwestern appeal that could be
Speaker 1: a real electoral asset. And the last thing I'll say
Speaker 1: about him Sager is, as I mentioned before, he is
Speaker 1: the one who in his sort of like cable news
Speaker 1: VP auditions came up with the tag of weird that
Speaker 1: has been rapidly embraced by Kamala Harris. So I would
Speaker 1: think that that would be a point in his favor
Speaker 1: that he's already sort of proven his effectiveness in terms
Speaker 1: of messaging against the GP.
Speaker 3: He's not bad, normal vibe, you know all that.
Speaker 2: I would say, unbalanced, a stronger Democrat than many others.
Speaker 2: My only case against him would be Harris's up by
Speaker 2: plus six in Minnesota, and we're in the fight of
Speaker 2: our lives in Pennsylvania, in Michigan, in Wisconsin. The translation
Speaker 2: of Minnesota to the rest of the states may make
Speaker 2: some sense, but it seems better to me to pick
Speaker 2: an overwhelmingly popular Democratic governor of that state. If we're
Speaker 2: just going for Pa alone. Remember too, Pa is probably
Speaker 2: the most contested of the big three Midwestern states. That
Speaker 2: Trump is probably the most popular in and so, and
Speaker 2: he got shot in Pennsylvania. Let's not forget that either.
Speaker 2: So all those things combined, I'm still just not sure
Speaker 2: he's the best pick.
Speaker 1: So let's take a look at you're talking about Trennsylvania
Speaker 1: Governor Josh Shapiro, who is doing his very best Obama
Speaker 1: in impression at all times, popular in the state, got
Speaker 1: easily elected.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to him.
Speaker 10: Okay, you could not have a clear contrast in this race.
Speaker 10: You could not have a clear contrast between Kamala Harris
Speaker 10: and Donald Trump.
Speaker 6: Let me tell you something. He's pretty afraid.
Speaker 10: Yo, sees we're backing out in the bank now in
Speaker 10: tone to toe with our vice president.
Speaker 6: You know why that is.
Speaker 10: It's not just because she's a skilled debater. It's not
Speaker 10: just because she's got the right positions on the issues
Speaker 10: the matter most to the good people of Pennsylvania and
Speaker 10: this country.
Speaker 6: Because he can't run away from his record any long. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 6: think about it.
Speaker 10: Four years as president, Guy stacks the NLRB with a
Speaker 10: bunch of corporate folks who have tried to rip away
Speaker 10: your rights every step of the way.
Speaker 6: We can't go back to that, and he can't defend.
Speaker 3: That doing his best Obama press.
Speaker 2: Let's can't hate him, but listen to this Fox News favorability.
Speaker 2: Much Fox News favorability. Kamala Harris forty nine to forty nine.
Speaker 2: This is in the state of Pennsylvania. Donald Trump forty
Speaker 2: six to forty three. Jos Shapiro sixty one thirty two.
Speaker 2: He is up there with favorability with Andy Basheer in
Speaker 2: terms of d governors in at least swing and or
Speaker 2: red states. So a sixty one percent approval rating a
Speaker 2: two thirds increase for favorability vers disfavor in the forty
Speaker 2: nine forty nine battleground state.
Speaker 3: That's I mean, that's as good as it gets.
Speaker 4: So here's here's a couple of issues with Shapiro.
Speaker 1: First of all, I fucking hate that fake Obama impression.
Speaker 1: There is an entire generation of Democratic politicians Cory Booker,
Speaker 1: Beta O'Rourke, Pete boodaget, this dude apparently who modeled their
Speaker 1: entire speaking cadence after Barack Obama.
Speaker 4: His might be the most shameless I have ever heard.
Speaker 3: Well he whisper combined with the upswing.
Speaker 1: You can just hear him his next line being like,
Speaker 1: don't boom boom, you know, uh no, okay, But that's
Speaker 1: only that's just my personal like my personal issue in
Speaker 1: terms of my my irritation with his speech cadence, but
Speaker 1: in terms of you know what could be some knocks
Speaker 1: on him, because there's no doubt the electoral record and
Speaker 1: the favorability is impressive. You're looking at a swing state,
Speaker 1: et cetera, critical swing state.
Speaker 4: Number one.
Speaker 1: He compared pro pal signed protesters to the KKK and
Speaker 1: all of the like youthful excitement and willingness to give
Speaker 1: Kamala a chance, all of that stuff. You can instantly
Speaker 1: deflate it by having someone who went so hard against
Speaker 1: the protesters. And that is a distinction from the other
Speaker 1: candidates in the race who either were quiet or in
Speaker 1: Tim Wallas's case, actually was you know, sort of like
Speaker 1: affirmatively encouraging, like of the uncommitted movement, et cetera. So
Speaker 1: I think Kamala's strength right now. The reason she's come
Speaker 1: up in the poll so quickly is in large part
Speaker 1: because she's doing so much better with young voters. You
Speaker 1: risk that if you have a choice like Joshapiro. So
Speaker 1: that's one.
Speaker 4: Number Two. He's got an issue with unions.
Speaker 1: He's a big this is again an O Mama thing,
Speaker 1: big charter school guy. So you've got an issue with
Speaker 1: with unions and unions in general. And Kamala has been
Speaker 1: close with like Seiu and other parts of the labor movement,
Speaker 1: so that could be an issue. To other issue is
Speaker 1: that their allegations he covered up sexual harassment within his office.
Speaker 1: So those are some of the potential drawbacks for Joshapiro.
Speaker 3: We'll see.
Speaker 2: I would still pick them. I think that the Palace
Speaker 2: Stein stuff, I think. Look, I still think it's relatively marginal.
Speaker 2: If we look at the overall number of people. Young
Speaker 2: people don't vote period. They may care about it, doesn't
Speaker 2: mean they're going to vote at higher levels. Boomers are
Speaker 2: disproportionately much more pro Israel. This is the suburban ladies election,
Speaker 2: not necessarily the college student election.
Speaker 3: It'd be nice if they cook all.
Speaker 4: Of these constituencies matter, though.
Speaker 3: Yes, but I think.
Speaker 2: Thirty eight year old ladies matter a lot more, I
Speaker 2: think than younger people.
Speaker 4: Also, you've got those that lady young people.
Speaker 2: You would have to presume that they're a single issue
Speaker 2: voter on Israel Kaza, which I do not believe at all.
Speaker 2: I don't think there's less than three hundred thousand people
Speaker 2: in this country are going to single issue vote on
Speaker 2: Israel Kaza. So that means people are multifaceting, and a
Speaker 2: lot of them are either going to pull the thing
Speaker 2: or not. And so I think they probably will come
Speaker 2: out to vote for her, because all she's got to
Speaker 2: do is throw some crumbs in their direction and they'll
Speaker 2: probably come along. Anyways, they can irrationalize in your head. Second,
Speaker 2: on the teachers union thing, I agree that it's not
Speaker 2: necessarily like the best thing, but you know, on the
Speaker 2: charter schools and all that, this is very unfortunate. But
Speaker 2: union membership is near all time lows in the United States,
Speaker 2: so organized SEIU coming out to vote, even teams throughs
Speaker 2: vote and all that stuff, it doesn't matter as much as.
Speaker 3: It did, let's say in the nineteen seventy.
Speaker 1: Sure, yeah, but there's still an important influential course the
Speaker 1: Democratic Coalition in terms of fundraising, in terms of organizing,
Speaker 1: et cetera. And so I think you're right with regard
Speaker 1: to young people in terms of voting, But all of
Speaker 1: the enthusiasm that we're talking about, like that matters as well,
Speaker 1: that you're going to have people who are out there
Speaker 1: door knocking, phone banking, meming on, you know, with the
Speaker 1: zoomers on, TikTok all of that stuff, and you risk
Speaker 1: that with the Shapiro, where you do not risk that
Speaker 1: with the Walls. So you know, that's why I think
Speaker 1: he's a safer pick. Nate Silver did a big analysis
Speaker 1: of like how much it matters where a VP pick
Speaker 1: is from, and the home state advantage that is conferred
Speaker 1: is like very very.
Speaker 2: Very very al Gore is a classic example a state. Yeah,
Speaker 2: here's my counter to that. We're this is an exceptional time.
Speaker 2: Kamala coming in so late in the game. I think
Speaker 2: the VP pick for her is going to matter more
Speaker 2: than any modern VP pick in modern history, simply because
Speaker 2: it's definitional.
Speaker 3: It's like who is coming on board?
Speaker 2: Here is where I think Shapiro, too, being such a
Speaker 2: unique figure. A governor is a very different pick than
Speaker 2: a Senator. You know, let's be honest, Like Senator is
Speaker 2: much more of a Washington figurehead to a state like
Speaker 2: al Gore was, as opposed to the popular governor who
Speaker 2: people in Pennsylvania know and like having him on the ticket.
Speaker 2: I'm just saying there's a lot of confounding factors. So
Speaker 2: you're not wrong. But it's like me saying debates don't
Speaker 2: matter in history. It's like, yeah, they don't matter until
Speaker 2: they do. So this is where if there was ever
Speaker 2: a time where the VP pick for her mattered the most,
Speaker 2: I think it would be this election.
Speaker 1: All Right, we've got another popular governor, this one of Kentucky,
Speaker 1: Andy Basheer, who got himself elected and then re elected,
Speaker 1: as I said before, most popular democratic governor and the
Speaker 1: entire country, in spite of it being the state of Kentucky.
Speaker 1: A lot of that I think not being in the
Speaker 1: state anymore. But a lot of that I think has
Speaker 1: come from the fact that he number one has leaned
Speaker 1: into a populist message in a populist state of Kentucky.
Speaker 1: He got elected initially on the back of the teacher
Speaker 1: strike wave and rejection of these sort of like you know,
Speaker 1: cutting pensions and going after public services. That was very
Speaker 1: effective for him. And then he has brought a lot
Speaker 1: of jobs to the state of Kentucky. A lot of
Speaker 1: these new battery manufacturing plants are coming to Kentucky. So
Speaker 1: he's had a record that has been very clear in
Speaker 1: terms of like delivering benefits. And it happens that a
Speaker 1: lot of those jobs have been like new economy, green
Speaker 1: energy jobs. So that's what has been a strength for
Speaker 1: him in terms of the state of Kentucky. Let's take
Speaker 1: a listen to a little bit of how hey sounds.
Speaker 3: This is not my first speech on the back of
Speaker 3: a pickup truck.
Speaker 11: If you don't know me, I'm the guy that last
Speaker 11: November beat Mitch McConnell's hand pick Canada. I'm the guy
Speaker 11: that last he'll ever beat Donald Trump's hand pick can
Speaker 11: Are you ready to voute?
Speaker 6: Are you ready to meet Donald Trump? Are you ready
Speaker 6: to beat jd Nance? Are you ready to elect Kamala
Speaker 6: Harris President of the United States?
Speaker 1: Amata out?
Speaker 6: That was thank you, let's win this ready.
Speaker 1: So that was him at a campaign stop in Georgia.
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris campaign event in Georgia. You know, he really
Speaker 1: came out. He's been picked pitching himself pretty hard like
Speaker 1: he's been. He's been trying pretty hard in the VP
Speaker 1: steaks Zuger. I think it's fair to say, but you know,
Speaker 1: one of the things that went viral for him was
Speaker 1: him making a contrast with Jadie Vance and going after
Speaker 1: him like, you're not from here, You're not really a
Speaker 1: representati of Appalachia. And uh Andy's got that, you know,
Speaker 1: that nice country drawl and his his red state record.
Speaker 1: Downside for him is it's obviously not a swing state,
Speaker 1: So you know, does that factor into the decision here?
Speaker 4: Does he come off.
Speaker 1: As trying a little too too hard in terms of
Speaker 1: getting the VP nomination?
Speaker 4: That's another issue.
Speaker 1: One point in his favor and Joshapiro's favor Androy Cooper's
Speaker 1: favor is they all were attorney attorneys general, and they
Speaker 1: all coincided at least briefly, I think, with Kamala Harris's
Speaker 1: tenure as attorney general. So if she's looking for another
Speaker 1: like we're going to prosecute the case, or even to
Speaker 1: someone that she knows and has familiarity with, that's an
Speaker 1: asset for those three candidates in peratain.
Speaker 2: Andy's a talented politician, but it's not nineteen ninety two
Speaker 2: Bill Clinton earraw where you know what I'm saying, Like,
Speaker 2: we're not going for Southern Democrats who might be like
Speaker 2: that constituency that he could flip doesn't exist, Like we're
Speaker 2: going all in for two hundred and seventy one electoral votes.
Speaker 2: We need to go midwest here. That's the only logical
Speaker 2: choice that makes any sense to me. We're playing to
Speaker 2: win for in the game of pure margins of more
Speaker 2: than one percent in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Georgia, Great Arizona,
Speaker 2: Great Nevada, great that we actually need to win this election.
Speaker 2: So for her, I think if you look at that,
Speaker 2: picking somebody from an R plus thirty three state just
Speaker 2: doesn't make any damn sense.
Speaker 1: The case for him would be, you know, it's not
Speaker 1: about I'm going to bring you deliver Kentucky. It's I
Speaker 1: have a proven track record of winning over skeptical people.
Speaker 1: And you know, the Southern accent, it just codes as conservative,
Speaker 1: it just does. And so the you know, white he's
Speaker 1: like the whitest man on the planet. People are sharing
Speaker 1: like the picture of him and his family whatever. They're like,
Speaker 1: if you're looking for the whitest person available.
Speaker 4: This is your guy.
Speaker 1: So you know, he codes moderate to conservative, and I
Speaker 1: think he's governed in relatively moderate to conservative way of Kentucky.
Speaker 1: But he is good on labor and some key issues there.
Speaker 1: So in any case, that would be the case for him.
Speaker 1: As not like I'm going to deliver you the state
Speaker 1: of Kentucky. But I have a track record of appealing
Speaker 1: to the type of voters that are going to be
Speaker 1: both skeptical of you.
Speaker 4: And you can see it.
Speaker 1: In the fact that I got elected and re elected.
Speaker 1: So I think that would be the case for him.
Speaker 3: It's a fine case. I don't think it exists today.
Speaker 2: I actually, you know, open primary is a very different
Speaker 2: story I think in an open general election, but in today,
Speaker 2: who she is, where she's running, and who she needs
Speaker 2: to win, I don't think it makes as much sense,
Speaker 2: especially when you consider who he's up against.
Speaker 3: I also do think he's trying too hard.
Speaker 2: I mean, in a certain sense, I don't blame him
Speaker 2: because I'm like, listen, Kentucky governor, where do you go?
Speaker 3: You know?
Speaker 2: And is he already rich? He comes from a political dynasty.
Speaker 2: It's like, well, what else, what else do we have left?
Speaker 3: VP.
Speaker 2: That sounds great heart beat away from the presidency. So
Speaker 2: I don't blame him per se, But this is politics.
Speaker 2: Mean you can't you can't wear your ambition too much
Speaker 2: on your sleep.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, you know, he he does come from a
Speaker 1: political dynasty family.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't know that he personally is like that wealthy.
Speaker 1: He's not like one of the super blue bloods in
Speaker 1: the state of Kentucky. But he definitely the limit for
Speaker 1: only five million, Like, you're not going to win a
Speaker 1: Senate seat as a Democrat and Kentucky at this point,
Speaker 1: even if you are Andy Busher, Like, it's just exactly
Speaker 1: that shit has sailed. So yeah, he's termal limited out
Speaker 1: as governor. What else is he going to do? So
Speaker 1: he's making the pitch hard this is this is his
Speaker 1: chance or or you know, maybe if this doesn't work
Speaker 1: out for him and then Kamala loses, which is still
Speaker 1: the you know, more likely than not, I would say,
Speaker 1: then he's built up some sort of a national profile
Speaker 1: that he could use to make a potential twenty twenty
Speaker 1: eight run. So I don't blame him for really taking
Speaker 1: the moment to get out there as best he can either.
Speaker 1: I knew the guy a little bit when I lived
Speaker 1: in the state of Kentucky, and he does just come
Speaker 1: off as like mini van Dad, like you know, in
Speaker 1: spite of coming from the political dynasty family, he does
Speaker 1: come off as very sort of like normal, relatable, et cetera.
Speaker 1: He does not come off as a superstar charismatic political talent.
Speaker 1: That is not him whatsoever. But in any case, let's
Speaker 1: move on to the next governor on our list, Roy
Speaker 1: Cooper of North Carolina, which I read a whole thing
Speaker 1: about how he doesn't pronounce his last name Cooper. He
Speaker 1: pronounced it that with like, you know, the way you
Speaker 1: say foot with the oh and Cooper. Apparently it's like
Speaker 1: a eastern North Carolina pronunciation. But let me tell you
Speaker 1: about the whole nation's going to be calling you. Roy Cooper,
Speaker 1: governor of North Carolina, obviously red state popular figure, has
Speaker 1: governed as like a very sort of cautious, moderate type politician,
Speaker 1: exactly what you would expect from a North Carolina Democrat.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to him.
Speaker 12: Donald Trump won North Carolina in twenty twenty by one
Speaker 12: point three percent. This was his closest win in Joe
Speaker 12: Biden's closest loss this was during COVID. During twenty twenty,
Speaker 12: Democrats really weren't doing the door to door taking people
Speaker 12: to the poll's work that Republicans continued to do through COVID.
Speaker 12: I believe that North Carolina is definitely on the table
Speaker 12: to win. I've told the President that. I told the
Speaker 12: Vice President of that when she and I talked the
Speaker 12: other day, it was clear that the Biden Harris campaign
Speaker 12: was targeting North Carolina. I think it's important for them
Speaker 12: to continue to do that. The threat to democracy that
Speaker 12: Donald Trump brings, the threat to women's reproductive freedom that
Speaker 12: he brings, and I think that's a message that will
Speaker 12: resound not only in North Carolina but across the country.
Speaker 1: So if you look up generic the Democrat in the textbook,
Speaker 1: like this is the guy. He's out of central casting.
Speaker 1: You can imagine playing like the president in a movie.
Speaker 1: You know, he's I guess those are the advantages for him.
Speaker 4: He's got that look. He's just got that very.
Speaker 1: Like, you know, standard politician kind of vibe, and that's
Speaker 1: kind of how he's governed. The other big edge I
Speaker 1: think he has in addition to being popular in the
Speaker 1: stage North Carolina, which maybe the team, the Kamala Harris
Speaker 1: team wants to put in play. The other big advantage
Speaker 1: that he has is I think he and Kamala have
Speaker 1: the longest personal relationship, and that may count for a lot.
Speaker 1: You know, if I was her and I was thinking
Speaker 1: about this choice and thinking about who I wanted to
Speaker 1: serve in the White House with for four, potentially eight years,
Speaker 1: I would I think I would really value actually knowing
Speaker 1: the person and having some track record of comfort with them,
Speaker 1: because this is going to be a very important person
Speaker 1: in your life. So to me, that's kind of the
Speaker 1: most compelling reason and why I think he's on the
Speaker 1: short list. To me, listen, as a communicator, he doesn't
Speaker 1: really do anything for me. It's not like a negative.
Speaker 1: He's fine.
Speaker 3: I just see.
Speaker 4: It doesn't get my heart racing.
Speaker 1: But I think he would definitely be a do no
Speaker 1: harm type of candidate and could potentially help them to
Speaker 1: make North Carolina a theoretical possibility.
Speaker 3: You could do worse.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is where I'm a little bit more skeptical.
Speaker 2: The only thing in the case is the personal relationship.
Speaker 2: Look Throughout history, almost always the vice president will take
Speaker 2: and the president are not close. It's very rare to
Speaker 2: have a close vice president and president. The president always
Speaker 2: just trust the vice president because they think they want
Speaker 2: to be president. It's one of the reasons that Dick
Speaker 2: Cheney was very unique because he never wanted to be president,
Speaker 2: and thus he was able to at least have some
Speaker 2: credibility with Bush. But that is an aberration, you know.
Speaker 2: The Kamala Biden relationship is the typical one where you
Speaker 2: put all the shit jobs on them, you make them
Speaker 2: look bad, you squeeze them out. They think that they're
Speaker 2: the air appointed. They beef with the personal staff, and
Speaker 2: then something happens like Biden's side not to run, and
Speaker 2: they up having to endorse them anyway, and there's a
Speaker 2: lot of bad blood that eventually gets written about fifteen
Speaker 2: years from now.
Speaker 3: That is the typical vice presidential relationship.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Well, part of one of the knocks I've seen on
Speaker 1: Shapiro is that he is one that wears his ambition
Speaker 1: very heavily.
Speaker 3: I can see that true.
Speaker 1: And so if she's worried about that, yeah, about him
Speaker 1: being more interested in his own political climb than her
Speaker 1: political climb, you know, that could be that could be
Speaker 1: a knock on him. But then again, you know, none
Speaker 1: of these All of these guys are comparatively young comparative
Speaker 1: to Joe Biden and Donald Trump. So I would think
Speaker 1: that any one of them would be have their eye
Speaker 1: ultimately on the presidency if they got picked for the slot.
Speaker 1: So the last candidate that we have on the list
Speaker 1: is the one senator who has been consistently named as
Speaker 1: one of the potential top choices. This is Arizona's Mark Kelly.
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to him.
Speaker 9: What is wrong about a woman who has been great
Speaker 9: to not want to you know, to be or to
Speaker 9: be able to terminate a pregnancy.
Speaker 6: Let's wrong with that? And two daughters and a granddaughter.
Speaker 13: Really worry about their rights if Donald Trump is elected
Speaker 13: again and Jamie Dams is the vice president, I mean
Speaker 13: that really concerns me.
Speaker 4: So there you get a sense of him. Again.
Speaker 1: He's not an electric communicator, but he does have a
Speaker 1: good reputation in the state of Arizona. If that's you know,
Speaker 1: if you think that he would bring something in terms
Speaker 1: of helping to deliver that state, perhaps you pick him.
Speaker 1: This also would be someone that Kamala Harris knows I
Speaker 1: think fairly well. So perhaps that's an added advantage. There
Speaker 1: is some reporting that this is like the guy Obama wants,
Speaker 1: So I don't know how.
Speaker 4: Much that counts for.
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's true, and I don't know
Speaker 1: how much that counts for, but it does feel like
Speaker 1: Democrats will kind of like fall in love with this,
Speaker 1: you know, astronaut hero persona with him, So I could
Speaker 1: see him getting picked the issue for him. Two issues
Speaker 1: for him. Number one the Senate seat. Look, a Democratic
Speaker 1: governor gets to appoint the replacement, so that gives I'm
Speaker 1: a good leg up in terms of re election, but
Speaker 1: you still are then making it a lot if you're
Speaker 1: that Democrats will be able to hold on to that seat.
Speaker 1: And the other thing is unions don't like him. He
Speaker 1: was basically taking screaming through this process to supporting the
Speaker 1: pro Act Big Red Flag.
Speaker 3: There.
Speaker 1: There were some other nominees that the Biden administration wanted
Speaker 1: to get through that were important to labor that he
Speaker 1: was skeptical or not supportive of. So he doesn't have
Speaker 1: a great record with labor. Maybe that's a hindrance for him.
Speaker 3: This is a labor thing for him. He's actually a
Speaker 3: big border hockey.
Speaker 2: He won his race by running against Biden on the border,
Speaker 2: which a lot of people didn't expect.
Speaker 3: But anyway, I mean that's not a bad thing.
Speaker 1: Well, I do think that's one of the things that
Speaker 1: the Harris the Harris people would consider as like, Okay,
Speaker 1: does this person help me with our weakest issue, which
Speaker 1: is immigration.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that would be the only Also, look, America
Speaker 2: loves an astronaut. There's a reason that, you know, it's
Speaker 2: a very selective program. And you know how many astronaut
Speaker 2: politicians we'd have Bill Nelson to all these senators.
Speaker 3: People love it.
Speaker 2: It's a legacy of like the Mercury Seven programs. So
Speaker 2: I wouldn't put it past you know, that being a
Speaker 2: thing he also, you know, is you know, in terms
Speaker 2: of his own record and the personal story, there's some
Speaker 2: inspiration with with Gaby Gifford. So I think that that's
Speaker 2: not something I would dismount. Per se, I would simply
Speaker 2: not pick him because it'd be bad for the large
Speaker 2: d Democratic Party and I don't think Arizona is in play,
Speaker 2: but the border issue is one where he would lend
Speaker 2: her some credibility on the issue. And now let's think
Speaker 2: about this too, whoever she picks and going to go
Speaker 2: up against j D. All JD talks about these days
Speaker 2: on the campaign trail is immigration, So you need somebody
Speaker 2: who could stand toe to toe there with immigration. That said,
Speaker 2: how many people are based on their vote on the
Speaker 2: vice president debate.
Speaker 3: Let's be honest, it's like zero.
Speaker 2: So you know, these are all like hypotheticals that I'm
Speaker 2: not bringing up, just making the case for one that exists.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, my overriding assumption is that whoever I
Speaker 1: want to be the least is probably the person they're
Speaker 1: gonna pick.
Speaker 4: So it's going to be Mark Kelly or jos Shaperil.
Speaker 1: And by the way, I've met Mark Kelly and I've
Speaker 1: met Gaby Giffords both before and after she was shot,
Speaker 1: and they're very kind, lovely, like on a personal level.
Speaker 4: People.
Speaker 1: It's not personal. I just you know, labor's important to me.
Speaker 1: Has been bad on labor, so it's not.
Speaker 4: Not my pick.
Speaker 1: But let's just we'll just quickly go through these last
Speaker 1: couple of elements. You can put up the next one
Speaker 1: on the screen. So apparently the big Union choice is
Speaker 1: Tim Wall's governor, as I mentioned before, of Minnesota. They
Speaker 1: like him, they feel comfortable with him. He was you know,
Speaker 1: he was a public school teacher, so he was in
Speaker 1: a union himself. That always helps. Has got and put
Speaker 1: the next one up on the screen. This we mentioned
Speaker 1: before the New York Times, the quiet bond Kamala, Harris
Speaker 1: Forde with three VP contenders. It was a little bit
Speaker 1: wrong in what I said earlier. Ray Cooper and Andy
Speaker 1: Basheer both directly overlapped with Kamala as Attorney's General. Jos
Speaker 1: Shapiro came into the job as she was leaving her
Speaker 1: post and as Trump entered the White House. But she
Speaker 1: may like that they share that ag background. There was
Speaker 1: one report that she wanted someone with quote unquote executive
Speaker 1: experience that would seem to indicate a governor, not Mark Kelly,
Speaker 1: but who knows if that's sure or not. And then
Speaker 1: the last thing that I mentioned before, which might be
Speaker 1: a point in Tim Walls's favor, is the fact that
Speaker 1: he really came up with this framing, the weird framing,
Speaker 1: which the Harris campaign has gone all in on. And
Speaker 1: I'm already seeing signs of there are rallies of like
Speaker 1: these people are.
Speaker 4: Weird or whatever.
Speaker 1: But this is a press release where they said this
Speaker 1: also is emblematic of the massive tone shift since the
Speaker 1: Biden team has become the Harris team.
Speaker 4: They put on this press release.
Speaker 1: The headline is a statement on a seventy eight year
Speaker 1: old Criminals Fox News appearance, and one of the talking
Speaker 1: points here is Trump is old and quite weird question mark.
Speaker 1: So you know, they really are leaning into that and
Speaker 1: embrace that. So, for what it's worth, that's where we are.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it could be a sign we will We'll see.
Speaker 2: That's my only thing. I'm not really going to make
Speaker 2: a guess. I think there's an equal chance. I would
Speaker 2: say relatively equal chance between Tim Waltz and Josh Shapiro.
Speaker 2: I would say those are the frontrunners. In my opinion.
Speaker 2: She could shock us by picking a Kelly or a Cooper.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I don't think sheher's in the running at all. I
Speaker 3: don't see it.
Speaker 1: Like I said, I just assume whoever I want this
Speaker 1: this is going to be the one that gets picked.
Speaker 1: So Joshapiro, congratulations.
Speaker 3: Now let's turn a little bit to RFK.
Speaker 2: There's some really interesting new reporting about how the Trump
Speaker 2: campaign was desperate to get a quasi endorsement from RFK
Speaker 2: and what the details of that meeting look like. Let's
Speaker 2: put this up there on the screen from Mediaite, and
Speaker 2: here's what they say. Basically, there was, as we know,
Speaker 2: that private conversation between RFK and Trump, of which the
Speaker 2: video some of what was released by RFK Junior's son. Well,
Speaker 2: it seems that behind the scenes, Donald Trump was desperate
Speaker 2: to get an endorsement from RFK Junior, who he believes
Speaker 2: is eating into his base of support. So in their
Speaker 2: July fifteenth meeting, Trump quote attempted to persuade Kennedy to
Speaker 2: endorse his campaign, citing polling, Kennedy refused. Instead, Trump and
Speaker 2: Kennedy came up with an idea about making a unity
Speaker 2: announcement in the wake of the assassination attempt. Trump was
Speaker 2: trying to get the endorsement from Kennedy. Kennedy was not
Speaker 2: keen on dropping out of the race and endorsing Trump.
Speaker 2: Trump's team then requested the Kennedy draft a quote Unity
Speaker 2: government proposal which would outline what they plan to work
Speaker 2: on together, including vaccines and government corruption. They requested that
Speaker 2: the pledge also outline what role Kennedy would look like
Speaker 2: should Trump become president again. Kennedy campaign sent the pledge,
Speaker 2: never received a response. The document says quote that there
Speaker 2: are many issues Trump and Kennedy do not agree on,
Speaker 2: but the Unity Pledge was important for the.
Speaker 3: Nation after the assassination attempt.
Speaker 2: In addition, the pledge outlined a role for Kennedy leading
Speaker 2: the HHS Department, which is one of the largest, I
Speaker 2: think the largest federal agency health and Human Services. According
Speaker 2: to them, Kennedy was not going to endorse Trump, but
Speaker 2: agreed to drafting the Unity Government Proposal pledged by the
Speaker 2: Trump team. Trump wanted quote something fairly desperately to make
Speaker 2: people think Kennedy was in support of him, but in
Speaker 2: lieu of not giving him an endorsement, he agreed to
Speaker 2: the pledge. Trump was then anxious to move forward with
Speaker 2: announcing the pledge before the R and C was over,
Speaker 2: and was texting that Monday night with urgency. Kennedy was
Speaker 2: prepared to do the pledge with the RNC, but then
Speaker 2: the conversation halted.
Speaker 3: Quote.
Speaker 2: It is unclear why the Trump campaign went dark. So
Speaker 2: that's some of the details of what we have there. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean, here's the thing. Trump is right, he desperately
Speaker 2: needs RFK to endorse him. That's basically I mean, if
Speaker 2: we look at the five way polling, which we'll get
Speaker 2: to in a little bit, he is basically costing him
Speaker 2: a ton of votes, especially in critical states. I would
Speaker 2: not be surprised if RFK Junior stays on the ballot,
Speaker 2: if the margin of victory is such that Trump is
Speaker 2: cost the votes in places like Michigan and elsewhere. But
Speaker 2: I mean, it's not entirely fair to say, because maybe
Speaker 2: those people wouldn't vote at all. But you know, there's
Speaker 2: an argument at least to be made that there is
Speaker 2: a decent chunk of RFK Junior support that if RFK Junior,
Speaker 2: who endorse Trump, might put him over the edge.
Speaker 3: Yeah, in a lot of these background states, it's.
Speaker 1: Very logical the two of these two having some sort
Speaker 1: of an alliance. On the one hand, RFK Junior's vote
Speaker 1: share has been diminishing, he's suffered a Listen, his entire
Speaker 1: energy for his campaign was like, you hate both of
Speaker 1: these guys, right, I'm here as an alternative, and now
Speaker 1: one of them is out of the race. So, you know,
Speaker 1: the people who were Democrats but they were unhappy with
Speaker 1: Joe Piden for whatever reason, including primarily that he was
Speaker 1: just too old, they have come back into the fold
Speaker 1: that has hurt him, and that has made it more
Speaker 1: clear that the candidate he hurts quote unquote is Trump.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of logic on Trump's side wanting
Speaker 1: to get him out of the race, wanting to offer
Speaker 1: him something in his administration. So RFK Junior can continue
Speaker 1: to have a platform, some sort of political power, and
Speaker 1: you know, parlay his campaign into some sort of role
Speaker 1: in the Trump administration. That makes all the sense in
Speaker 1: the world. And then you know, for RFK Junior, it's
Speaker 1: the campaign is not really going that well at this point.
Speaker 1: The trajectory is in the wrong direction. So it's increasingly
Speaker 1: unlikely that you're going to be in any sort of
Speaker 1: position to when a single state or contest or even
Speaker 1: be you know, particularly consequential in a single state. So
Speaker 1: if you're looking for some sort of an exit ramp,
Speaker 1: maybe the Trump administration is smart and you're certainly not
Speaker 1: getting anything in a Kamala Harris administration, So that's kind
Speaker 1: of your only path.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see. It really depends on what he has
Speaker 2: to say. So he gave an interview to CBS News.
Speaker 2: He was asked about this specifically. Let's take a listen.
Speaker 5: This video of RFK Junior on the phone with Trump
Speaker 5: shortly after the attempt on his life heightened the drama.
Speaker 6: I would love you, and I think it would be
Speaker 6: so good for you and so good for you.
Speaker 9: And were you in those meetings prepared to end your campaign,
Speaker 9: endorse former President Trump and accept a role in his administration.
Speaker 3: No, asident Trump called me a few hours after.
Speaker 4: Was that ever any part of the discussion those things
Speaker 4: I just described.
Speaker 1: We you know, I won't talk about it exactly what
Speaker 1: we discussed me because it would be a violation of trust.
Speaker 3: All right, So there you go.
Speaker 2: Basically dodges he opened the door a little bit. I mean,
Speaker 2: it basically confirms the report. There the Unity pledge not
Speaker 2: an endorsement. It really is depending now on RFK Junior
Speaker 2: and what he wants to accomplish. I mean, I don't
Speaker 2: think anybody is owed to their vote. So Trump is
Speaker 2: going to have to court him. And it's clear RK
Speaker 2: doesn't want to endorse him. So I'm going to give
Speaker 2: him that because at the very least he's not. He's like, look,
Speaker 2: I disagree with you one a lot. I have said
Speaker 2: very publicly there are things I do not agree with
Speaker 2: you on. We may have some overlapt but that doesn't
Speaker 2: mean I'm a diet in the role Trumper and he's like,
Speaker 2: so I'm gonna have to get something out of it,
Speaker 2: and it's clear too Trump probably doesn't want to give
Speaker 2: it to him. That's I mean, if you think about it,
Speaker 2: em bargaining terms, giving up HHS is titanic and it's
Speaker 2: one of the largest federal agencies. Also, RFK Junior maybe
Speaker 2: forgetting this, but you have to get confirmed by the
Speaker 2: United States Senate, and I just foresee some problems there
Speaker 2: with a lot of Democrats and Republicans voted for him,
Speaker 2: just saying that's one of the things I would be
Speaker 2: concerned about. Polling wise, Let's put this up there because
Speaker 2: this just confers why he is working so hard Trump
Speaker 2: is to actually get a RFK out of the race.
Speaker 2: In the Reuters ipsos that was recently conducted after Kamala
Speaker 2: replaced Biden on the ticket, it puts Kennedy at eight
Speaker 2: percent in the three way contest against Harris and Trump,
Speaker 2: down from the eleven that he scored just a week earlier. Separately,
Speaker 2: a Big Caravan poll of two thousand adults from July
Speaker 2: twenty second, again after Kamalin's out of the race puts
Speaker 2: Kennedy at six point seven versus the nine point two
Speaker 2: percent that he scored when the same question was asked
Speaker 2: just ten days or so before. I don't agree with
Speaker 2: the headline of quote wiping out the campaign. What it
Speaker 2: does wipe out is the disaffected Democratic support right, which,
Speaker 2: let's be honest, that was a large part of it.
Speaker 2: RFK is pro choice, like RFK is an environmentalist, like
Speaker 2: La Hollywood lib in many respects. I can personally see
Speaker 2: many celebrities and people like Zachary Levi and others who
Speaker 2: endorse him specifically because they are liberal, but they don't
Speaker 2: like Trump, and that is that. I mean, I'm not
Speaker 2: going to say it's a majority, but it's some people.
Speaker 2: And so for Kamma up, there's enough there for some
Speaker 2: people that I think that confers it. What is it
Speaker 2: three four five percent or something of people bleeding away,
Speaker 2: But that's enough if you can win back that but
Speaker 2: continue to keep that disaffected Trump voter or Republican leaning
Speaker 2: voter away from Trump. That's a bad situation for Trump
Speaker 2: and that's why he should be desperate.
Speaker 3: I really think he should.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it has made it much more clear that, you know,
Speaker 1: RFK Junior, because it was it would go pull polls
Speaker 1: some holes, it would seem like it was worse for
Speaker 1: Biden having an RFK Junior in the race, other ones
Speaker 1: it was worse for Trump.
Speaker 4: It really was pretty evenly split.
Speaker 1: Now it's it's quite clear that it's more of a
Speaker 1: liability for Trump to keep him in the race. But
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know what sort of I'm just
Speaker 1: all I can say is there is some logic to
Speaker 1: the idea of RFK Junior from his perspective dropping out
Speaker 1: and endorsing Trump and getting something for it. There is
Speaker 1: definitely logic on the Trump side to push for that
Speaker 1: and want that. We know RFK Junior has at this
Speaker 1: point robuffed those you know, those inquiries, those requests up to.
Speaker 4: This point, and I don't know what he's weighing.
Speaker 1: You know, he's made a lot of promises to his
Speaker 1: supporters that they are you know, supporting a campaign that
Speaker 1: is an opposition to Trump, that is an opposition to
Speaker 1: both of the major political parties. He also does, as
Speaker 1: you say, come out of this like liberal Hollywood ecosystem
Speaker 1: and those people really hate Donald Trump. So if you
Speaker 1: you know, it's one thing to be sort of like,
Speaker 1: you know, low key maybe hurting the Democratic Party ticket
Speaker 1: or whatever critic low of Biden. It's an thing to
Speaker 1: be affirmatively in a Trump administration. And maybe he's already
Speaker 1: so estranged from the liberal Hollywood circle or whatever that
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. But maybe it does. Maybe it's an
Speaker 1: issue for his wife. I genuinely don't know what the
Speaker 1: calculus is enough to make a prediction. All I can
Speaker 1: say is that there is a logic to this. You know,
Speaker 1: the entreaties being made by the Trump.
Speaker 2: People, Well, the Trump people should be desperate, and in
Speaker 2: many ways it's their own fault because they helped try
Speaker 2: to prop him up when he was running as Biden,
Speaker 2: and then a lot of Republicans were like, hey, I
Speaker 2: like this guy, And now they're like, well a whole
Speaker 2: lot a second, No, we didn't mean.
Speaker 3: It that way.
Speaker 2: Let's put this up there on the screen, just from
Speaker 2: RFK himself. There was previously a false tweet that said
Speaker 2: he was going to drop out of the race, and
Speaker 2: he responded saying I'm in it to win it. I
Speaker 2: lead in popularity and independence are now the largest voting block.
Speaker 2: Momentum is shifting in my favor as I close in
Speaker 2: on ballot access in all fifty states. I look forward
Speaker 2: to challenging President Trump and the DNC nominee at the
Speaker 2: next debate hashtag America strong. Now very unlikely that ABC
Speaker 2: will let Actually we don't really.
Speaker 3: Know what's going on with that debate.
Speaker 2: Trump currently basically says he won't he won't debate her
Speaker 2: until she's officially the Democratic nominee, So I guess we'll
Speaker 2: wait until afterwards. This is where too, I'm a little
Speaker 2: bit upset about the process.
Speaker 3: Where we look. We previously had three debates, we were
Speaker 3: going to get two.
Speaker 2: Well Biden and Trump had one, so now there's only
Speaker 2: one left on the schedule. We can't just have one
Speaker 2: debate with this press with a new presidential candidate. At
Speaker 2: a minimum, I think she should do three. It would
Speaker 2: be better if she did like five. But she's not stupid,
Speaker 2: you know.
Speaker 1: Well Trump At this point, Trump's the one who's saying
Speaker 1: I may not debate you at all. So well, he's
Speaker 1: saying at that point it's more of a problem on
Speaker 1: his side.
Speaker 2: What did is tweet say? It was something like I
Speaker 2: won't debate her until I know she's the nominee. I
Speaker 2: think I think that's what it was. He's also trying
Speaker 2: to get her not to just do the ABC News debate.
Speaker 2: He wants to do a Fox News debate or and
Speaker 2: or both. He didn't officially resign himself from ABC, but
Speaker 2: I think they need to do a lot more debates
Speaker 2: because it's really not fair to the American people to
Speaker 2: only everyone, because with Kamala, it's not like Biden where
Speaker 2: were you know, he just falls apart because he's literally
Speaker 2: like a walking corpse. I think most people, most politicians
Speaker 2: of a C minus standard, can keep it together for
Speaker 2: ninety minutes, but two hundred and seventy minutes, well, that's
Speaker 2: where it gets a little bit interesting. And that's where
Speaker 2: we might see some breakage and think, and this is
Speaker 2: a risk for Trump too, But we need to see
Speaker 2: a lot more than just one because that is straight
Speaker 2: up not fair at all.
Speaker 1: To the absolutely. I mean, yeah, she was put in
Speaker 1: place through a non democratic.
Speaker 3: Exactly like that in sociology event.
Speaker 1: Right, So you know, the very least we deserve is
Speaker 1: some transparency, some ability to evaluate the two of them
Speaker 1: side by side, contrasting their visions, their you know, communications
Speaker 1: skills and political aptitude, which is an important part of
Speaker 1: the presidency. Right, the theater is an important part of
Speaker 1: the presidency. There is no doubt that that we deserve
Speaker 1: all of that. So we'll see. But there is also
Speaker 1: no doubt that there's no chance they're going to let
Speaker 1: RFK Junior on that stage, which is wrong, which is
Speaker 1: absolutely wrong as well and again anti democratic. But yeah,
Speaker 1: we'll see where this goes with with r of K Junior.
Speaker 1: I could I could see it going any number. I
Speaker 1: could see him hanging in there for whatever reasons. You know,
Speaker 1: he's running a campaign. He wants to stay until the end.
Speaker 1: He wants to see how it goes. Maybe he's seeing
Speaker 1: some movement in the polls internally that we're not seeing publicly. Whatever,
Speaker 1: Maybe has some theory of the case that we're not
Speaker 1: privy to. Or he just wants to keep his promise
Speaker 1: to oppose both of these major party nominees.
Speaker 4: So we'll see where it goes.
Speaker 2: I hope he stays in actually because I want people
Speaker 2: to prove that there is a quote unquote viable path
Speaker 2: to at least winning some x amount of a third party.
Speaker 2: And if we look at the history of third parties
Speaker 2: in the past, it's very rare that they just come
Speaker 2: out into existence and win. That's not how it works.
Speaker 2: They win ten percent. I mean, look at Europe for example,
Speaker 2: you have these tiny little parties. They win two seats,
Speaker 2: they prosecute a case, then they win twenty. Then next thing,
Speaker 2: you know, they win fifty. Next thing you know, they're
Speaker 2: you know, the number two coalition in the French Parliament.
Speaker 2: That's how it should work. Yeah, and that's one of
Speaker 2: those where we can prove viability through a slow process
Speaker 2: through democracy. And so anyway, that's part of the reason
Speaker 2: where if you do actually want a chance to break it, doopoly,
Speaker 2: that would be the case.
Speaker 4: Yes, and we need rank choice vote to help make
Speaker 4: that a reality.
Speaker 2: And then he actually, I mean imagine how much he
Speaker 2: could win in rank choice scenario. That would be crazy
Speaker 2: actually if you consider especially in swing states and others.
Speaker 3: But yeah, anyway, that's never gonna hurt.
Speaker 4: A long way from that one.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the latest revelations with
Speaker 1: regard to the massive security failures that allowed this horrific
Speaker 1: attack on Donald Trump to go forward.
Speaker 4: Let's put this up on the screen. We're getting more.
Speaker 1: Details about failed communications on the day of so the
Speaker 1: Trump's Secret Service team is complaining that they were not
Speaker 1: told of suspicious person reports before the shooting. Now, this
Speaker 1: is a Washington Post report from Josh Dassy and Carol Lennig.
Speaker 1: Carol always has fantastic sources within the secrets ereves. I
Speaker 1: always want to read what she has to say with
Speaker 1: regard to at least their narrative. What's going on the
Speaker 1: subhead here, as members of the former president Secret Service
Speaker 1: detail and a top advisors have said they were not
Speaker 1: informed of warnings that were circulating before shooting at the
Speaker 1: July thirteenth rally, according to people familiar with the concerns,
Speaker 1: So they go through the TikTok here they talk about how,
Speaker 1: approximately twenty to twenty five minutes before Thomas Matthew Crooks
Speaker 1: shot at the former president, local counter snipers noticed him
Speaker 1: behaving strangely. They sent his photograph to a command center
Speaker 1: staffed by state troopers and Secret Service agents. The head
Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania State Police told a congressional committee Tuesday. Members
Speaker 1: of the Secret Service detail that protects Trump and was
Speaker 1: with him backstage have complained to Confidence and others inside
Speaker 1: the agency they were never made aware of that warning
Speaker 1: about a suspicious person because remember he was spotted with
Speaker 1: a rangefinder attempting to enter the premises, and they were
Speaker 1: never They were never informed of that, and they were
Speaker 1: also never informed that the team on the ground there
Speaker 1: lost sight of him and did not know where he went.
Speaker 1: They said they were not aware local counter snipers lost track,
Speaker 1: or that another local officer hoisted up to the roof
Speaker 1: of a building just outside the rally site security perimeter
Speaker 1: saw crooks perch there with a gun.
Speaker 4: This was also interesting to me.
Speaker 1: They say these type of communication breakdowns because of the
Speaker 1: different radio frequencies that Secret Service teams use while working together,
Speaker 1: and also technical failures have figured into some of the
Speaker 1: agency's other significant security lapses.
Speaker 4: So I don't know if you guys.
Speaker 1: Remember this, but when a gunman began shooting at the
Speaker 1: White House on a night in November twenty eleven when
Speaker 1: President Barack Obama's daughter Sasha was at home with her grandma,
Speaker 1: an agent protecting Sasha did not know about the shooter
Speaker 1: for several minutes because the agent used a different radio
Speaker 1: frequency than officers and agents station at the White House,
Speaker 1: and no one had alerted him to the threat outside.
Speaker 1: That is crazy and what's even crazier is that here
Speaker 1: we are, well more than a decade later, and their
Speaker 1: complaining saga here about the very same problem.
Speaker 2: Yeah, what we learn is that this is an incompetent agency.
Speaker 2: It's basically been evident now for a decade plus. It
Speaker 2: took the most incompetent tonight or attempted assassin of all
Speaker 2: time to basically just prove all of that in a
Speaker 2: single event that went wrong. And the fact is is
Speaker 2: that we still don't have enough of an answer because
Speaker 2: one of the things that we knew immediately was that
Speaker 2: this was not a single security failure. It was a
Speaker 2: confluence of terrible events. And what we're learning now is
Speaker 2: that all of the things that have been bubbling beneath
Speaker 2: the surface, the petition amongst agents saying that there was
Speaker 2: on professionalism. Here we know about the decade long problem
Speaker 2: with respect to communications. Now we see the Secret Service
Speaker 2: director who barely even wanted to resign. What we're seeing
Speaker 2: is that these institutions and agencies are almost more incompetent
Speaker 2: than you could have ever presumed, and that this is revealing,
Speaker 2: especially video and other we're about to show from the
Speaker 2: incident that the closeness call of all of this, it's
Speaker 2: only a miracle that something like this didn't happen five
Speaker 2: years earlier or something like that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if this was a trained professional, be over,
Speaker 1: game over. This was a twenty year old who got
Speaker 1: picked off as the high school rifle team as he
Speaker 1: was such a bad marson. But to your point, Benny
Speaker 1: Johnson went to.
Speaker 7: The location, braved the sloped roof, yes, the dangerous sloped roof,
Speaker 7: just to demonstrate how close this position was to Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to a little bit of video
Speaker 4: that he shot.
Speaker 13: This is the trail of blood from Thomas Crooks still
Speaker 13: visible on the building where the assassin was able to
Speaker 13: shoot directly at President Trump from this exact position. You
Speaker 13: can see right there in the field that's where President
Speaker 13: Trump is. I'm just on iPhone magnification. This is how
Speaker 13: close the president was. That is where the Secret Service
Speaker 13: sniper team was, and this is where no one was,
Speaker 13: or maybe someone was, but no one law enforcement wild.
Speaker 2: That's very instructive because you could see it's like a
Speaker 2: higher position up of the water tower, being on the
Speaker 2: dangerous slope roof where nobody was supposed to be. How
Speaker 2: far people away, and yeah, I fhone magnification is a
Speaker 2: good tell because you're like, wow, it's that close, literally
Speaker 2: just being able to zoom in like three times and
Speaker 2: you could see that where the guy is standing, and
Speaker 2: you also see the clear vantage point of where the
Speaker 2: sniper was, the attempted assassin, and then just the failure
Speaker 2: both of the law enforcement officials who were inside the
Speaker 2: building at the time, and then the lack of the
Speaker 2: perimeter that was set up. So the whole thing is
Speaker 2: still remains absolutely nuts. But as we learn more about
Speaker 2: the communications failure in others, the lack of coordination with
Speaker 2: law enforcement, it all makes sense.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: No, you know, Kyle has gotten me into golf, so
Speaker 1: it's become very familiar with your like one hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty yards looks like and it is really not that far.
Speaker 1: So this was one of the questions AOC asked in
Speaker 1: the hearing when everyone was going after the Secret Service director,
Speaker 1: and then she resigned shortly thereafter because it was clear
Speaker 1: Democrat Republicans didn't matter. They were all horrified by the
Speaker 1: total incompetence and manifest failures and stonewalling of any of
Speaker 1: these questions, and so AOC says Hey, this is one
Speaker 1: of the most popular guns in America. Why wasn't the
Speaker 1: perimeter inclusive of this range which is so close? She
Speaker 1: wouldn't answer, couldn't answer, didn't have an answer. Just absolutely astonishing.
Speaker 1: And so to your point, the local swat team from Butler, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 1: they were interviewed and they claim, Now, I do want
Speaker 1: to point out there is a bit of a like,
Speaker 1: you know, pointing fingers between the Super Service and the
Speaker 1: local teams and whatever was that's part of the jockeying
Speaker 1: that's going on and going on in the Washington Post
Speaker 1: is going on with these comments as well. In my opinion,
Speaker 1: the failures can be manifest across the board, across all
Speaker 1: of these teams. But the local swat team says, listen,
Speaker 1: we were supposed to meet with the Secret Service before
Speaker 1: this rally, and they never met with us. We had
Speaker 1: no communication with them whatsoever. Let's take a listen to that.
Speaker 14: We were supposed to get a face to face briefing
Speaker 14: with the Secret Service snipers whenever they arrived, and that
Speaker 14: never happened. So I think that that was probably a
Speaker 14: pivotal point where I started thinking things were wrong because
Speaker 14: that never happened. And we had no communication with the
Speaker 14: Secret Service.
Speaker 13: You had no communication with the Secret Service at all
Speaker 13: on that Saturday.
Speaker 14: Not until after the shooting, and by then it was
Speaker 14: too late.
Speaker 1: So apparently it's common for the Secret Service to utilize
Speaker 1: local law enforcement resources to bolster their protection, their response, whatever.
Speaker 1: But you would certainly assume that since this was a
Speaker 1: common thing, they would have a common protocol in terms
Speaker 1: of integrating their communications and really being in touch about
Speaker 1: the plan. And that apparently didn't happen here whatsoever.
Speaker 2: Yeah, local, like you said, let's be honest too, there
Speaker 2: is some beef because some people said that the local
Speaker 2: cops that confronted him and then they ducked away and
Speaker 2: the great.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's be real.
Speaker 2: But at the same time, blaming the local cops is
Speaker 2: not fair here because they didn't have the overall mission
Speaker 2: in the jurisdiction.
Speaker 4: They're not the sir Service.
Speaker 2: Their job is just do whatever they're told. So they
Speaker 2: show up and the Secret Services like get on that rooftop.
Speaker 2: They're like cool, got it, you know, stand here and
Speaker 2: make sure that people nobody comes in with a gun. Okay,
Speaker 2: but they're not the ones with anti drone jamming technology
Speaker 2: and they're not supposed to let a guy in with
Speaker 2: a range finder and having counter sniper teams who are
Speaker 2: supposed to do scouting missions beforehand, and denying resources.
Speaker 3: That's their job. They're the ones who are ultimately in control.
Speaker 2: So I still think even if there is maybe some
Speaker 2: culpability that the local cops here are being done dirty
Speaker 2: in that they never should have been in a position
Speaker 2: where they don't even know that nobody's on the rooftop
Speaker 2: or anything.
Speaker 3: They're just supposed to follow orders.
Speaker 2: They're not the ones who are in control, so you know,
Speaker 2: the responsibility falls on command, and that's the Secret Service director,
Speaker 2: the head of the detail, et cetera.
Speaker 3: All those people need to go.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's right, and you know, yes, the Secret
Speaker 1: Service director has resigned. I don't think anyone should be
Speaker 1: comforted that the problems here have been so because, as
Speaker 1: I just mentioned, you know, these issues with communications, et cetera.
Speaker 1: This goes back to twenty eleven. So there are some
Speaker 1: some deep incompetence failures here in terms of Secret Service.
Speaker 1: And just one last thing that I'll flag again that
Speaker 1: Ken Clippenstein was mentioning he also has, you know, really
Speaker 1: fantastic sources and great knowledge of these agencies.
Speaker 4: You know, all the push is going to be all right.
Speaker 1: Now, they need more resources, they need more money into
Speaker 1: their budget. And it's not that they need more money,
Speaker 1: it's that they need to actually focus on the mission
Speaker 1: at hand rather than get getting having that money spread
Speaker 1: in a million different directions that many none of us
Speaker 1: have ever heard of before, that the Secret Service.
Speaker 4: Is doing that they really shouldn't be doing.
Speaker 1: They should be focused on mission number one, which is,
Speaker 1: you know, protecting the people.
Speaker 4: That they are charged with protecting.
Speaker 1: Absolutely all right, let's go and turn to some very
Speaker 1: disturbing and very scary developments out of Israel, so we
Speaker 1: can put this up on the screen. A strike in
Speaker 1: the Israeli occupied goal On Heights killed twelve kids and
Speaker 1: young adults who were playing soccer in that region in
Speaker 1: a Druze community. Israel and the US are blaming Hesbelah
Speaker 1: for this attack and the killing of these children. Hesbela
Speaker 1: is denying any sort of culpability here. In a sense,
Speaker 1: what actually happened really doesn't matter, because Israel and the
Speaker 1: US are certainly treating this as an attack perpetrated by Hesbela.
Speaker 1: In the as I said before, Israeli occupied goal on Heights.
Speaker 1: We could put this up on the screen. This is
Speaker 1: a very fast moving story because now the question turns
Speaker 1: to Okay, what is Israel going to do in response?
Speaker 1: And Sager, you pulled news just this morning that the
Speaker 1: Israeli security Cabinet has authorized some sort of retaliation. We
Speaker 1: don't know what that looks like yet, but we do
Speaker 1: know that there is an credible risk right now in
Speaker 1: this fraught moment because we've had these exchange of fire
Speaker 1: between the Israelis and Husbula for you know, since effectively
Speaker 1: the beginning of this latest war, and it has remained
Speaker 1: relatively contained. But now the Israelis are threatening massive retaliation.
Speaker 1: Aran is involving themselves as well.
Speaker 4: Of course, Israel Is.
Speaker 1: Always wanting to drag us into some broader conflict, and
Speaker 1: especially into some conflict with Iran. Reports are that US
Speaker 1: and other Western diplomats are trying to get the Israelis
Speaker 1: to temper their response and avoid a massive escalation. But
Speaker 1: this is a very scary situation we're looking at right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it is terrifying.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's also it's very sad here because we
Speaker 2: did have twelve kids who are a teenagers and others
Speaker 2: who were killed in the strike. Obviously, there's a lot
Speaker 2: of incentive both for Israel's claim it's has Bow and
Speaker 2: raisable to deny it's them. So at a certain sense,
Speaker 2: like you said, you know, we're not necessarily going to
Speaker 2: know what's happen, but we do know that this is.
Speaker 3: The nightmare scenario for a variety of reasons.
Speaker 2: Well, we have the Israeli War Cabinet and many other
Speaker 2: security officials, including Netanya, who have been wanting to take
Speaker 2: the war to Lebanon for quite a long time because
Speaker 2: it prolongs the war, which means it prolongs any sort
Speaker 2: of discussion of what happened on October seventh, conversation around that.
Speaker 3: So that's very much to their benefit.
Speaker 2: Well, then we also have this situation where the US
Speaker 2: security establishment is one where they have to follow along
Speaker 2: but try to push back to the best of their abilities. Well,
Speaker 2: in this particular moment, it's very difficult when the Israelis
Speaker 2: can claim, perhaps with some credibility. I haven't looked exactly
Speaker 2: into the striker whatever, but it's not outside the realm
Speaker 2: of possibility that Hesbolaraka killed twelve people in Israel when
Speaker 2: they've been firing on They've killed some civilians, IDF members, etc.
Speaker 2: The scariness really of the situation is is that this
Speaker 2: is not Gaza, and we've tried to say this from
Speaker 2: the very beginning, is that hezbe Law is a real
Speaker 2: paramilitary organization with deadly rockets, with much more sophisticated technology,
Speaker 2: with tens of thousands of more fighters, fighters who are
Speaker 2: much more well equipped, battle tested throughout the entire Syrian
Speaker 2: Civil War, and would put the IDF in a very
Speaker 2: difficult position. And if they're running low on munitions already,
Speaker 2: you know, just bombing Gaza, good luck actually fighting a
Speaker 2: real pair of military force in actual like straight up
Speaker 2: you know, almost peer not pure military, but something that
Speaker 2: is significantly more equipped to deal with IDF, as we
Speaker 2: have seen through some various attacks and others that were
Speaker 2: able to penetrate the Iron Dome. So it's a very
Speaker 2: different military situation. It's one where the IDF would be
Speaker 2: seriously matched and it's fighting capacity and the potential for
Speaker 2: the blowout from there is just sky high. Iran with others,
Speaker 2: I mean, the relationship between Iran and Hezbollah is you know,
Speaker 2: like this.
Speaker 3: There have been reports.
Speaker 2: Now that the Israelis want to assassinate Nosarella Jas and Nosrela.
Speaker 2: The thing is is that what people forget is even
Speaker 2: if Iran were not to get involved, then Lebanon would explode.
Speaker 2: There could be another civil war that happens that.
Speaker 1: Levin the hell knows that very rough shape, right le
Speaker 1: rough shape for decades, especially.
Speaker 4: Economic basket case. We can put this up on.
Speaker 1: The screen, which just sort of was a good summary
Speaker 1: of what has happened so far. So the Joyce Karen
Speaker 1: says Lebanon braces for Israeli response. There is fear that
Speaker 1: the Israelis would strike even in Beirut, which would obviously
Speaker 1: be you know, complete disaster husblaws, evacuating sites in Lebanon
Speaker 1: pro Iron groups or evacuating sites in Syria.
Speaker 4: Israel Security meeting underway.
Speaker 1: Now that meeting has completed and they did authorize some
Speaker 1: sort of response.
Speaker 4: Here's the other thing.
Speaker 1: You have a number of nations telling their citizens to
Speaker 1: leave Lebanon. But the other context here is this is
Speaker 1: happening in the midst of these continuing cease fire talks,
Speaker 1: which there are some indication that the Biden administration is
Speaker 1: really trying to push to wrap this thing up. I'm
Speaker 1: going to play for you Kamala Harris's comments after her meeting,
Speaker 1: and bb was in town last week obviously, and she
Speaker 1: met with him, Biden met with him, Trump met with him,
Speaker 1: et cetera. The piece that's linked there in that tweet,
Speaker 1: they write the escalation is taking place as the MASSAD chief,
Speaker 1: the CIA chief, Katari's Prime minister, and the head of
Speaker 1: Egyptian intelligence are all meeting Sunday in Rome to continue
Speaker 1: talks and a potential deal between Israel and Hamas that
Speaker 1: would see the release of the hostages and a ceasefire
Speaker 1: in Gaza. And so while the US wants this thing
Speaker 1: to be wrapped up and they are trying to avoid
Speaker 1: an even broader escalation, you know which so far, their
Speaker 1: original goal was let's not have it spread outside of
Speaker 1: Gaza at all. That obviously is completely failed. But now
Speaker 1: it's a let's not have a broader conflagration. But you
Speaker 1: have to remember the Israeli politicians, who are you totally
Speaker 1: in control here in the absence of our leadership, they
Speaker 1: have an interest in expanding the conflict. They have an
Speaker 1: interest in continuing this war and having justification to do so.
Speaker 1: So that's part of why this is such a scary situation,
Speaker 1: such a scary moment right now, and why we're all
Speaker 1: watching very closely what's going to unfold next. At the
Speaker 1: same time, we don't want to lose sight of the
Speaker 1: horrific attacks that continue to occur by the Israelis in Gaza.
Speaker 1: This was I mean, just imagine for a moment if
Speaker 1: it was Russia doing what I'm about to show you,
Speaker 1: which is an IDF soldier planted explosives, detonated a water
Speaker 1: station that a million plus people depend on. Put it
Speaker 1: out on Instagram. Very proud of his actions. He says
Speaker 1: it's in honor of Shabbat. And also the soundtrack is
Speaker 1: you know, some some song about destroying Gaza and how
Speaker 1: great that'll be. So take a look at this instagram
Speaker 1: that was posted here. You can see, you know, the
Speaker 1: water station, you can see the IDF soldiers there preparing
Speaker 1: the detonation. And then this is the you know, the
Speaker 1: water tank, the large facility. This is in Rafa, by
Speaker 1: the way, and here is the explosion, blowing up this
Speaker 1: absolutely critical water infrastructure at a time when obviously Palestinians
Speaker 1: and Gaza are already starving, already struggling with a lack
Speaker 1: of clean drinking water. We now have reports that there's
Speaker 1: polio in the sewage in Gaza. IDF soldiers are being
Speaker 1: vaccinated for polio to make sure that they don't contract it.
Speaker 1: As well as the disastrous situation. Ryan and Jeremy Scahill
Speaker 1: over at drop site News, they commissioned an article from
Speaker 1: the journalists who had discovered this is Yunice Terrawi, who
Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys follow him on Twitter,
Speaker 1: you definitely should. But he has been finding a lot
Speaker 1: of these IDF tiktoks Instagrams, et cetera, and he wrote
Speaker 1: about this particular one.
Speaker 4: The headline here is the.
Speaker 1: IDEF just destroyed a key Raffa water facility that Rachel
Speaker 1: Corey spent her last month of her life defending.
Speaker 4: He writes.
Speaker 1: On Friday, I discovered a video posted on Instagram by
Speaker 1: an Israeli soldiers showing the calculated demolition of a chief
Speaker 1: water facility in Rafa. He goes on to say that
Speaker 1: US human rights activists Rachel Corey, who has crushed to
Speaker 1: death in two thousand and three budis rarely military bulldozer.
Speaker 1: While attempting to prevent demolitions in the city. Spent much
Speaker 1: of her time during the last month of her life
Speaker 1: helping to protect this very facility, specifically the municipality workers
Speaker 1: who were at this very facility because it was so critical.
Speaker 1: I referenced before the soundtrack that's in the background of
Speaker 1: that instagram.
Speaker 4: He says.
Speaker 1: The lyrics include things like we will burn Gaza, shake
Speaker 1: all of Gaza. For every house you destroy, we will
Speaker 1: destroy ten and critically. Unice also points out that this
Speaker 1: plan to starve and dehydrate residents of Gaza house innings
Speaker 1: in Gaza. This was announced early on in the war.
Speaker 1: Early on in October, an advisor to Yoav Goan laid
Speaker 1: out this strategy in a radio interview. She said, Israel
Speaker 1: as I understand, close the water supply to Gaza, but
Speaker 1: there are many wells in Gaza which contained water which
Speaker 1: they treat locally since originally they contain salt. If the
Speaker 1: energy shortage in Gaza makes it so that they stop
Speaker 1: pumping out water, that's good. Otherwise we have to attack
Speaker 1: these water treatment plans in order to create a situation
Speaker 1: of thirst and hunger in Gaza. And I would say
Speaker 1: forworn of an unprecedented economical and humanitarian crisis. Even her
Speaker 1: radio interviewer in Israel was kind of shocked by those comments.
Speaker 4: But lo and behold.
Speaker 1: A BBC analysis based on satellite data from May ninth
Speaker 1: found that fifty percent of Gaza's water and sanitation facilities
Speaker 1: have been damaged or destroyed since Israel began their offensive
Speaker 1: following the October seventh attack. So, as I said before, Sager, imagine,
Speaker 1: if it was Russia, it should be condemned.
Speaker 4: It should be condemned.
Speaker 1: Once it's Russia, if it's Russia doing this in Ukraine,
Speaker 1: and it should be condemned here, and yet we will
Speaker 1: hear nothing about it. And you know, it's also worth
Speaker 1: pointing out there continue to be horrific deadly strikes by
Speaker 1: the Israelis in Gaza. And you know, it's nice to
Speaker 1: see people actually caring about children being killed as they
Speaker 1: are with these Druis children in the Israeli occupied Golan heights.
Speaker 1: I just wish that that same care and concern was
Speaker 1: applied to all children, no matter their race, nationality, or
Speaker 1: geography of where they happen to live.
Speaker 2: I think it's what I'm very worried about is the
Speaker 2: proxy fight, and as the continuing spillover effect of all
Speaker 2: of this that we will get further away both from
Speaker 2: any sort of humanitarian solution, you know with the ceasefire
Speaker 2: and allowing aid and Tagaza, but actually an expansion of
Speaker 2: the war, which let's not there are millions of people
Speaker 2: who live in Syria and in Lebanon, not to mention
Speaker 2: Aaron and everywhere else.
Speaker 3: There are also always.
Speaker 2: Remember this, tens of thousands of US service members who
Speaker 2: are sitting there sitting ducks. And also, I'll bring it
Speaker 2: back to the domestic situation. This is where I am
Speaker 2: most terrified of Biden. His cooked brain is the one
Speaker 2: responsible for trying to keep us out of this. A
Speaker 2: real president to get his ass on a plane and
Speaker 2: get over there now and actually try and bring some
Speaker 2: sort of solution to this. Instead, we've got you know,
Speaker 2: like blinkn and Jake Sullivan who go great track record
Speaker 2: right that they have on this. So I am, I am,
Speaker 2: our vice president is here campaigning for our job. We've
Speaker 2: got the literal C minus team who is running American
Speaker 2: foreign policy right now.
Speaker 3: I'm terrified. This is where he needs to go tomorrow.
Speaker 1: He needs he needs to go, and he needs to
Speaker 1: actually be willing to flex some American muscle with regards
Speaker 1: to this, because I mean long overdue, and listen, if
Speaker 1: you're beb you know, the calculation was very clear. First
Speaker 1: of all, you've got an ally in Biden, You've got
Speaker 1: an even greater ally in Trump. So he clearly felt like,
Speaker 1: all right, if I can just run out of the
Speaker 1: clocks November, Trump's going to destroy Biden. And so you know,
Speaker 1: I can do whatever I want then, and I won't
Speaker 1: get any pushback whatsoever, even like the little bit of
Speaker 1: handring and that Joe Biden has done. So people were
Speaker 1: watching very closely what comments Kamala Harris would make coming
Speaker 1: out of her meeting last week with bb NET Nyaho.
Speaker 1: Reading the tea leaves of whether there's any chance she
Speaker 1: would be different at all from the Biden Harris administration,
Speaker 1: given that you know, this is a woman, as I
Speaker 1: said before, like she really it's really not clear that
Speaker 1: she actually has any core beliefs on anything. So trying
Speaker 1: to figure out where she's going to be is an
Speaker 1: art and like teep Leave reading and trying to figure
Speaker 1: out what the political calculation is going to be. She
Speaker 1: gave comments that the tone was definitely different from what
Speaker 1: Biden has said, this has been fairly consistent for her
Speaker 1: in the vice presidency, where she has sounded notes of
Speaker 1: much more empathy for Palestinians than Joe Biden has. Does
Speaker 1: that amount to any sort of policy shift? That is
Speaker 1: very much tbd. Let's take a listen to a little
Speaker 1: bit of what she had to say.
Speaker 5: I told him that I will always ensure that Israel
Speaker 5: is able to defend itself, including from Iran and Iran
Speaker 5: backed militias such as Hamas and Hisbolah. Israel has a
Speaker 5: right to defend itself and how it does so matters.
Speaker 5: And I made clear my serious concern about the dire
Speaker 5: humanitarian situation there, with over two million people facing high
Speaker 5: levels of food insecurity and half a million people facing
Speaker 5: catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity. What has happened in
Speaker 5: Gaza over the past nine months is devastating. The images
Speaker 5: of dead children and desperate, hungry people fleeing for safety,
Speaker 5: sometimes displaced for the second, third, or fourth time. We
Speaker 5: cannot look away in the face of these tragedies. We
Speaker 5: cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering, and
Speaker 5: I will not be silent.
Speaker 1: So there you go, Like I said, different tone. Does
Speaker 1: it mean anything? Your guess it's ultimately as good as mine.
Speaker 1: I guess the good indication is she's already said she's
Speaker 1: kicking out Sullivan, Lincoln and co.
Speaker 2: Okay, she didn't say that was leaked to somebody who
Speaker 2: reported it. Do I believe that maybe?
Speaker 1: Well, the fact that someone felt that it was a
Speaker 1: good thing to leak is, you know, a positive sign.
Speaker 1: On the other hand, you know, I don't think anyone
Speaker 1: should get their hopes of it's she reaffirmed after this speech,
Speaker 1: because of course is really's freaked. Oh my god, how
Speaker 1: dare you like even even like gesture at a criticism
Speaker 1: of us. Her office put out that, you know, her
Speaker 1: position in Biden's position are the same and hasn't changed.
Speaker 4: Et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 1: So is there a shift coming in terms of policy here?
Speaker 4: Don't know.
Speaker 2: Here's what I would say, Philip Gordon, I've known who
Speaker 2: he is for a while. He worked for Anthony B.
Speaker 2: Lincoln whenever he was at the State Department under Obama
Speaker 2: he was the assistant secretary. Did he write a book
Speaker 2: on the Middle East where he said Iraq.
Speaker 3: Was a mistake? Okay, I mean that's just not that's
Speaker 3: such a low bar for me. I don't think there's
Speaker 3: been Actually.
Speaker 1: She genuinely comes listen, like the question is are we
Speaker 1: going to get the Biden bear hug strategy or are
Speaker 1: we going to get the Obama like slightly better like
Speaker 1: willing to I mean the Iranian nuclear deal that Israeli's
Speaker 1: genuinely like that was a gen you and rebuke of
Speaker 1: just We're going to do whatever you want, whenever you want,
Speaker 1: et cetera. When he was on his way out, he
Speaker 1: allowed a resolution through the UN security gut like we're
Speaker 1: not talking about a total one to eighty here. With
Speaker 1: regards to where Kamala Harris positions herself, the reason why
Speaker 1: I am cautiously if optimistic we may get the Obama
Speaker 1: policy versus the Biden policy is just number one. She
Speaker 1: just isn't ideological on this in the way that Biden has,
Speaker 1: and Biden has been so ideological as to be willing
Speaker 1: to damage his own political prospects. And it is my
Speaker 1: contention that if you are just doing as Nancy Pelosi
Speaker 1: is a naked analysis of the politics as they exist today,
Speaker 1: it would merit a different response here than what has
Speaker 1: been given, because it was quite clear, the Gaza War
Speaker 1: was a drag on Biden.
Speaker 4: It was a disaster for him.
Speaker 1: It was a big part of the reason why, you know,
Speaker 1: young people, his numbers with young people were so terrible,
Speaker 1: and his numbers with actually black Americans have a much
Speaker 1: different view of this conflict typically than white Americans do,
Speaker 1: and it was dragging down his numbers with Black Americans
Speaker 1: as well. So that's I'm not hopeful because I think
Speaker 1: she's courageous, they're going to take us stare whatever. I
Speaker 1: just think the politics on this have shifted. I think
Speaker 1: Bebe's made himself a very partisan right wing figure, and
Speaker 1: so if you're just responding to like the normal democratic
Speaker 1: politician calculus, at this point, I think it augurs more
Speaker 1: in the direction of an Obama Israel foreign policy, which
Speaker 1: again is not amazing, but it's somewhat better versus a
Speaker 1: Biden Israel forum.
Speaker 3: Policy I do.
Speaker 2: My only caution is on Ukraine, where I think they've
Speaker 2: totally lost it, but.
Speaker 3: We'll save that for us.
Speaker 4: I think she's got the same because Biden does, basically.
Speaker 2: But that's worse because it's unchecked from at least the
Speaker 2: guy who got us out of Afghanistan, and at least
Speaker 2: waited to ship weapons as opposed to.
Speaker 3: Letting them into Allay. Now, well, well.
Speaker 2: There's more to go all in. Just wait, we're only
Speaker 2: half the pot so far. Let's get to the cartel's block.
Speaker 2: Because this is a story been dying to cover. And
Speaker 2: when I saw the news, I was just absolutely stunned.
Speaker 2: So let's go and put this up there on the screen.
Speaker 2: What we have here is a the El Mayo and
Speaker 2: Guzman capture. We have a picture here of one of
Speaker 2: El Choppo's sons who has been wanted by Mexican and
Speaker 2: American authorities. He has been indicted here under US federal
Speaker 2: courts and has been long wanted by the US Department
Speaker 2: of Justice and by Mexican authorities. Previously. You will remember
Speaker 2: that one of his brothers, one of El Chappo's other sons,
Speaker 2: whenever he was in a major firefight with Mexican authorities
Speaker 2: in a surprise capture where they didn't necessarily expect to
Speaker 2: be able to get him, and hundreds of people were
Speaker 2: affected by this. The entire city was shut down, and
Speaker 2: it was a picture of lawlessness. This highlighted of what
Speaker 2: was thought by many people and analysts to be kind
Speaker 2: of a proxy war and or rivalry between El Mayo,
Speaker 2: one of the other single singular figures in the Sinaloa cartel,
Speaker 2: and then the El Chapo dynasty his two sons. Well,
Speaker 2: what has now happened is, let's put this up there
Speaker 2: on the screen. El Mayo has been arrested on Thursday
Speaker 2: by US federal authorities near El Paso, Texas. The official
Speaker 2: story appears to be that El Chappo's son lured El
Speaker 2: Mayo onto a private plane in the guise of we're
Speaker 2: going to go tour some private airfields in northern Mexico
Speaker 2: and we're going to see and set up things for
Speaker 2: our drug smuggling routes. It appears that throughout this he
Speaker 2: El Choppo's son was able to restrain El Mayo, or
Speaker 2: at least lure him there under false pretenses and restrain
Speaker 2: him there on the plane before landing the plane in
Speaker 2: Texas and having US federal authorities arrest him on the
Speaker 2: outstanding indictments that have been against al Mayo now for
Speaker 2: quite a long time.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: The reason why this is super fascinating is that al
Speaker 2: Mayo has evaded custody now for more than three decades.
Speaker 2: People didn't have an accurate photo of him. Nobody knew
Speaker 2: much about him. He was the antithesis Tel Choppo, who
Speaker 2: avoided the spotlight, didn't want to do interviews, was very
Speaker 2: much under the radar, and in fact he's one of
Speaker 2: the og figures who is able to survive. For quite
Speaker 2: a long time, there's been a lot of skept crystal
Speaker 2: that he was even like we knew he was a
Speaker 2: drug cartel.
Speaker 3: But the theory was is that the government, the.
Speaker 2: DEA, and the Mexicans had all basically made peace with
Speaker 2: El Mayo where he is able to give up like
Speaker 2: allegedly gave up his own sons to authority. He rats
Speaker 2: out others and in exchange they allow him to kind
Speaker 2: of be the figurehead the theories that having a bigger
Speaker 2: cartel is usually to deal with than massive cartel wars.
Speaker 3: But now his arrest, well that's actually true. It is true.
Speaker 12: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're bracing for escalated violence because of these two.
Speaker 2: The fallout of this is going to be that there
Speaker 2: will absolutely be massive war because now you have both
Speaker 2: of the sons of l Chappo and Al Mayo. Now
Speaker 2: Chapo himself is now in federal I think he's in
Speaker 2: Supermac's prison. So now the political vacuum in Mexico is massive,
Speaker 2: the territorial wars, the Cinelloa cartel, the largest cartel in
Speaker 2: all of Mexico. What does it mean for both their
Speaker 2: own home territory and the various ports, drug ports and
Speaker 2: all them that they control politically? The big question here
Speaker 2: is was he arrested in Texas? Why is l Chappo's
Speaker 2: son cutting deals with, you know, the federal government here.
Speaker 2: The theory is that El Chappo's son is a young
Speaker 2: man and I think he's like thirties or something, yeah,
Speaker 2: and that in exchange for trading El Maya one of
Speaker 2: those wanted fugitives in US history, that they could he
Speaker 2: could then possibly get out of prison and breathe there,
Speaker 2: but by the time he's fifty or something like that,
Speaker 2: and possibly even rope in his dad and reduce both
Speaker 2: all of their sentences. But the Mexican government was unaware
Speaker 2: of this deal, So there's a question to the Mexicans
Speaker 2: were they in on it? Like in terms of being
Speaker 2: protection for l Mayo, it is a bit suspicious. It
Speaker 2: was never truly captured there or even came close to authority,
Speaker 2: So there's fascinating levels at the cartel level, at the movie.
Speaker 3: Like events here.
Speaker 2: There's even some skepticism and some theory out there that
Speaker 2: he actually engineered this entire thing.
Speaker 3: And he's like, I'm seventy six, I don't want to
Speaker 3: be on the.
Speaker 2: Run anymore, So I'm just going to go in cut
Speaker 2: my deals and you know, just go out on my
Speaker 2: own terms. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me,
Speaker 2: because I wouldn't want to die in federal prison.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you continue to evade capture, why would you?
Speaker 6: Why not?
Speaker 2: Apparently had diabetes. He wasn't having a good time on
Speaker 2: the run, you know, because it's not a fun life.
Speaker 2: You got to move her, You got to move mansions
Speaker 2: every day whenever people are on your trail. You can't
Speaker 2: talk on the cell phone. You're constantly under the radar.
Speaker 2: Your own sons are in prison. So it's not like
Speaker 2: the best life that you're choosing. Regardless, it is a
Speaker 2: fascinating turn of events. It is a massive coup for
Speaker 2: the Justice Department to get their hands on l Mile.
Speaker 2: And like I said, originally, my true hope here is
Speaker 2: that we go to trial because I want to know
Speaker 2: all the details about Kuzman and whether he kind of
Speaker 2: deal with authorities, how we actually lured him on the plane.
Speaker 2: There's a lot of questions here, is like, why is
Speaker 2: a multi billionaire, one of the most powerful drug lords
Speaker 2: getting onto a plane or even showing up to a
Speaker 2: meeting with no protection with your rivals who you know
Speaker 2: don't like you. So what happened there? Did somebody get
Speaker 2: paid off? You know the details of his are truly crazy?
Speaker 1: Do you buy this idea that he because so my
Speaker 1: understand from reading three articles yesterday about this very deep
Speaker 1: knowledge that I have here. But my understanding is that
Speaker 1: his whole thing El Mayo was like that. He was
Speaker 1: so crafty and I've never been caught and never gets
Speaker 1: tricked and would never get loured into something as thin
Speaker 1: as like hey, buddy, let's go look at some real
Speaker 1: estate with you.
Speaker 2: That's why I don't believe it. That's why I think
Speaker 2: it's I think there's something else going on here. Really, Yeah,
Speaker 2: it's just shocked. I mean, how do you evade capture?
Speaker 2: You're seventy six, You've seen every trick in the book. People,
Speaker 2: I mean, hundreds of people tried to kill you. The
Speaker 2: Mexican government has been allegedly at least trying to capture you.
Speaker 3: You've been striking deals. You don't have a single source,
Speaker 3: you know, in the DEA or whatever.
Speaker 2: These Chopo brothers, you know, you think that they're idiots,
Speaker 2: which they are, and you know here you don't have
Speaker 2: a source, you know, in their operation or somewhere else
Speaker 2: that you just how do you get on this plane?
Speaker 3: And this happens.
Speaker 2: The pictures of him that were released you can actually
Speaker 2: see redness on his wrists, so indicating that there was some.
Speaker 3: Restraint, that he was restrained in some plane.
Speaker 2: On the plane, that's the theory. There was a picture
Speaker 2: of him released that was in the car. We can
Speaker 2: put the next one up there too. From the New
Speaker 2: York Post. They say, inside the cartel coup once in
Speaker 2: a lifetime caper. This is the official theory of events,
Speaker 2: which is that basically, you know, he was lured on
Speaker 2: the plane by El Chappo's son in exchange for a
Speaker 2: deal that they struck with the with the I think
Speaker 2: it's a Homeland security investigations former DEA say, quote, based
Speaker 2: on my experience, it's very possible the brothers developed a
Speaker 2: plan to arrest and capture Elmyo with the help of
Speaker 2: law enforcement. In the United States, the drug business is dirty.
Speaker 2: People routinely turn on each other, Like when Almyo's son
Speaker 2: and brother testified against El Chapo. That's also could you know,
Speaker 2: definitely be revenge itself. I just don't know, you know,
Speaker 2: what's happening here. I do know that inside of Mexico
Speaker 2: they are very afraid that this will trigger a massive
Speaker 2: bloodbath in war for a lot of the territory that
Speaker 2: the Cineloa cartel had had controlled.
Speaker 3: Some of this is also you know, al Mayo.
Speaker 2: One of the reasons why the temperature has been turned
Speaker 2: up on him and El Choppo's is a lot of
Speaker 2: the fentanyl that they are responsible for bringing into the
Speaker 2: United States.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's not like anyone has any hope that
Speaker 1: that's going to be reduced by these I mean that's.
Speaker 4: A part of why.
Speaker 1: It's like the Justice Department crow about it, and they'll
Speaker 1: be happy with their press release. And these are certainly
Speaker 1: men who deserve accountability and justice there, you know, there's
Speaker 1: no doubt about that. But in terms of actually impact
Speaker 1: on drug trafficking, there's no expectation this will diminish the
Speaker 1: flow and in fact, what I was reading is that
Speaker 1: the drug cartel organizations are not what they used to be.
Speaker 1: It's more like syndicates and almost like you know, franchisees.
Speaker 1: So there'll still be plenty of people to take the
Speaker 1: place in. What you're most likely to get is just
Speaker 1: like a spike in violence in the drug wars cartels
Speaker 1: spiking account.
Speaker 2: Again, why I want this thing to go to trial
Speaker 2: is the most interesting stuff that came out from the
Speaker 2: cho I don't care about the drug graphic.
Speaker 3: I mean I do. It's interesting and it's salacious.
Speaker 2: But the stuff about hey, you know Enrique Pignaneto, we
Speaker 2: gave them a hundred million dollars were like, wait, what
Speaker 2: the guy who lives in Spain, the former president. You
Speaker 2: paid him one hundred million and he showed up to
Speaker 2: your wedding. That's crazy? Or that, you know, if we'll
Speaker 2: forget the former defense Minister of Mexico was indicted on
Speaker 2: drug trafficking charges.
Speaker 3: He was the person who previously was in charge of
Speaker 3: the drug war.
Speaker 2: So what gets revealed is the high level political corruption.
Speaker 2: And there is no doubt that a man who is
Speaker 2: a high level cartel figure able to evade custody for
Speaker 2: three decades plus has not paid off a hell of
Speaker 2: a lot of politicians, probably including Texas politicians and border
Speaker 2: figures here in the US.
Speaker 3: And I want to hear everything there is to know
Speaker 3: about that, so that will be interesting.
Speaker 2: Plus, remember the theatrics of the Al Chapo trial. He
Speaker 2: was held in the mcc in Manhattan. Yeah, and they
Speaker 2: had just shut down everything because they were afraid that
Speaker 2: people were going to come and try and rescue him.
Speaker 3: So some of the security stuff, Yeah, he's just cravd. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I mean, remember he is.
Speaker 2: Look, these people have limitless resources. People are willing to
Speaker 2: kill and die for them. So this will it could
Speaker 2: be the trial of the centry. We'll see if he
Speaker 2: actually goes up against trial given what happened to El Chapo,
Speaker 2: I'm not sure I would because now you're gonna end
Speaker 2: your ass up in Supermax, which is what happened to him.
Speaker 3: So we'll see.
Speaker 2: All right, we have a great joke for everybody tomorrow,
Speaker 2: and we'll see you all then.