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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday.

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Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do

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Speaker 2: we have, Crystal?

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Speaker 1: Indeed, we do lots of interesting things to get into

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Speaker 1: this morning. We're going to start with the very latest polls.

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Speaker 1: We are actually ninety nine days out from the lah

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Speaker 1: kind of crazy, right, that is crazy. So we've got

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Speaker 1: a bunch of looks at like does the horse race,

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Speaker 1: the battleground poles, favorability, top issues, all of that stuff

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Speaker 1: we're going to dig in. We also have Kamla's first

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Speaker 1: ad that she is up with, using a Beyonce song.

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Speaker 3: That she got fregished to you, I will say freedom.

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Speaker 1: Well, so we're going to play and see if we

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Speaker 1: get digged on YouTube.

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Speaker 4: So take it.

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Speaker 3: We'll get risks with that one.

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Speaker 1: This morning, we're also taking a look at the Veepstakes

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Speaker 1: for Kamala Harris. A clearer picture emerging of what she

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Speaker 1: may be looking for and who the top contenders are,

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Speaker 1: so we're going to deep on this one. Our producers

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Speaker 1: did a fantastic job pulling together mashups of each of

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Speaker 1: the top contenders so we can show you who they

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Speaker 1: are and what we know about them and who may

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Speaker 1: be leading that veepstakes fight. We've also got new very

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Speaker 1: interesting behind the scenes reported details about Trump courting RFK

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Speaker 1: Junior and what exactly the play is there, so we'll

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Speaker 1: bringing that. We've also got even more revelations about secret

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Speaker 1: service failures with regard to that attempted assassination of Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: I always want to say attempted assassination attempt for some

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Speaker 1: reason anyway, massive communication failures and something that they've known

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Speaker 1: about for like literally over a decade that apparently hasn't

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Speaker 1: been fixed. The swat team, the local swat team that

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Speaker 1: was there on the ground, is also speaking out, so

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Speaker 1: will bring you all of that and also a bombshell

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Speaker 1: story international story. Two major cartel figures now brought down,

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Speaker 1: arrested apprehended here in the US. The behind the scenes

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Speaker 1: of this is crazy. Seems like some sort of a

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Speaker 1: soap opera betrayal. Although I wouldn't believe everything that's coming

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Speaker 1: out about this at this point.

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Speaker 2: There will be a movie five years from now with

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Speaker 2: all the actual details, but for now, this is absolutely nuts.

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Speaker 2: As many other bros online, I have a deep fascination

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Speaker 2: with the Mexican drug cartoon. So when I saw this news,

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Speaker 2: I was actually speechless. I was like, I cannot believe

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Speaker 2: they got him. And then I'm like, well did they

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Speaker 2: That's the real question.

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Speaker 1: Because the deal with Elmyo was his whole thing is like,

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Speaker 1: he's never set footage, never done.

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Speaker 2: Nobody even knew what he looked like. Even the photo

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Speaker 2: everyone oh really really him? Yeah, I mean I think

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Speaker 2: the photos of him, it was very very strange. And

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Speaker 2: then the fact that Chappo Junior was involved. He's a

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Speaker 2: young man and.

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Speaker 3: Allegedly struck a deal with the government.

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Speaker 2: I mean, like I said, this is straight up out

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Speaker 2: of like Narco's Season four. So this is going to

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Speaker 2: be It's fascinating to see what the initial thing is

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Speaker 2: going to be, and I'm really hoping this one goes

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Speaker 2: to trial because we learned a lot during the l

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Speaker 2: Chapo trial, and the government will actually have to give

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Speaker 2: us some facts. Last time around, we learned so much

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Speaker 2: about the inner workings of the drug cartels, the connection

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Speaker 2: to the Mexican government, allegedly of the Mexican government. This

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Speaker 2: time around didn't even know this was all going down, So.

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Speaker 3: There's a big questions there.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting, all right, So we'll get into all of that.

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Speaker 1: But let's go ahead and start with those polls.

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Speaker 2: Yes, let's start with the polls, and thank you to

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Speaker 2: all of our premium members. By the way, we have

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Speaker 2: some big news coming, so stay tuned for that. Let's

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Speaker 2: go ahead and begin with the Wall Street Journal. This

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Speaker 2: one really was the one that shook the political landscape

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Speaker 2: and put it up there on the screen, and it

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Speaker 2: actually just highlights how much things have really changed. So

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Speaker 2: what you can see in front of you is if

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Speaker 2: the general election were held today, for whom would you vote?

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Speaker 2: Originally we had Trump and Biden, and you can just

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Speaker 2: see the massive swing between Joe Biden, who was at

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Speaker 2: forty two percent in July first in the Wall Street

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Speaker 2: Journal poll, and you had Donald Trump at some forty

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Speaker 2: nine percent. But Harris effectively has erased the entire Trump

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Speaker 2: lead and is essentially tied within the margin of error

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Speaker 2: in this latest poll at forty nine to forty seven.

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Speaker 3: You should always, of course, incorporate.

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Speaker 2: That margin of error of roughly three point one percent

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Speaker 2: to then show you that this is an effective tie.

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Speaker 2: What's also fascinating, and this is I think the story

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Speaker 2: of the Kamala changeout. Are you enthusiastic about your candidate?

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Speaker 2: Look at that sub fifty percent figure up until July

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Speaker 2: second with Joe Biden. Now you have almost eighty percent

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Speaker 2: of Democrats who are saying that they are enthusiastic about

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Speaker 2: their candidate. You see the enthusiasm massively spike amongst Independence Republicans.

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Speaker 2: It's also spiked and that's not actually unexpected given the

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Speaker 2: attempted assassination of Donald Trump the RNC, and of course

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Speaker 2: it's close. When we get to election day, more people

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Speaker 2: are paying attention. But the fundamental story is the change

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Speaker 2: amongst independence, a change amongst Democrats specifically, and to see

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Speaker 2: what that turnout skyrocketing turnout previously of twenty twenty two

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Speaker 2: will look like in twenty twenty four when Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: is there and on the ballot. So I really think

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Speaker 2: that that is the biggest story of the entire election.

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Speaker 2: And then the favorability rating is one too that we

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Speaker 2: really cannot look away from. Let's go ahead and put

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Speaker 2: the next one, please up on the screen, because it

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Speaker 2: also tells that story.

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Speaker 3: Here we have from the Financial Times.

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Speaker 2: They did a fantastic job of going through and aggregating

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Speaker 2: a lot of favorability data. This is from actually multiple

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Speaker 2: polls that they've aggregated, and you have Trump's you know,

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Speaker 2: favorability rating, which was increasing, but it was still you know, underwater.

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Speaker 2: It was a rough way around, like minus eleven percent lately.

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Speaker 2: This is with the attempted assassination. Previously, he used to

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Speaker 2: go pretty significantly, but Biden was, you know, in the

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Speaker 2: deep the doldrums, I guess of favorability rating. Things were

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Speaker 2: just getting worse and worse for him all throughout his presidency,

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Speaker 2: but especially after the disastrous debate performance. Just look at

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Speaker 2: the hockey stick that we have here with Kamala Harris, who,

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Speaker 2: let's be honest, we cover this a million times. She's

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Speaker 2: one of the most least popular vice presidents in modern history.

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Speaker 2: Nobody really cared about her. She wasn't having even you know,

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Speaker 2: a third look or whatever from Democrats, but the anointing

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Speaker 2: of her and giving just an alternative to Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: that can speak literally and prosecute a very basic case

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Speaker 2: against Trump that the most normy Democratic mayor in the

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Speaker 2: country could has really invigorated Democrats and has skyrocketed her favorability.

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Speaker 2: And I think that this is one of those where

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Speaker 2: the contrasts of the aging, inept basically dying Biden to

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Speaker 2: somebody who is just not even a particularly talented politician,

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Speaker 2: but nonetheless somebody who's living and breathing that has just

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Speaker 2: breathed life into the Democratic base in a way that

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Speaker 2: I have not seen I think every modern politics.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not going to say Obama ass but

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Speaker 1: there is a little bit of that vibe of like,

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Speaker 1: you know, excitement and fir ready to go yeah, And

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Speaker 1: it really is the contrast is so important there because

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Speaker 1: Biden set the bar below the floor exactly so when

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Speaker 1: you see her capably, and she does this very well,

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Speaker 1: like we should give her her due. When she's on

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Speaker 1: the stump and she's delivering a speech, she's very effective.

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Speaker 4: She hasn't had to do.

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Speaker 1: Any of the things yet that have really caused her

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Speaker 1: trouble in the past. She hasn't sat for a difficult interview.

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Speaker 1: She obviously hasn't done a debate versus Donald Trump. Yet

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Speaker 1: those are the things that were more challenging for her

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Speaker 1: in the past. But up there on the stump in

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Speaker 1: front of a cheering, adoring audience, she has a swagger

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Speaker 1: right now that has really come across. And I think

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Speaker 1: it is true, and we predicted this ahead of time,

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Speaker 1: that just the fact that people don't feel like doomed

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Speaker 1: to the death march and the you know, matchup that

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Speaker 1: everyone was dreading, that there's some new life and vitality

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Speaker 1: injected into this race has caused her favorability ratings to skyrocket.

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Speaker 1: And it also just shows that part of the problem

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Speaker 1: for her was being tied down by the Biden administration

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Speaker 1: feeling you know, she was her favorability was really being

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Speaker 1: dragged down by how unpopular the whole administration was. So

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Speaker 1: those that was the thing that really blew me away,

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Speaker 1: because we should be honest about where the polls are.

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Speaker 1: They still show, you know, either its tied or Trump

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Speaker 1: still has a bit of an edge. She really has

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Speaker 1: brought the race back to where it was maybe a

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Speaker 1: few months ago before Biden started having like more and

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Speaker 1: more precipitous decline and his position really started to dramatically erode.

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Speaker 1: So it's not like it's not like she's where Biden

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Speaker 1: was last time in twenty twenty. At this time last time,

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Speaker 1: you know, in twenty twenty, Biden was up by nine

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Speaker 1: points in these type of polls. So let's just be

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Speaker 1: clear about where the race stands today. But what has

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Speaker 1: been most shocking to me is just the dramatic turnaround

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Speaker 1: in her favorability rating. And one of the things that

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Speaker 1: I've been thinking about, Sager, is when it was Biden,

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Speaker 1: it was very clear who the change candidate was, and

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Speaker 1: it was not Joe Bio.

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Speaker 4: It was Donald Trump. Now with Kamala.

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Speaker 1: Harris, she has because she is different, and she's a comparative,

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Speaker 1: fresh face and all of those sorts of things, she

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Speaker 1: has as much of a claim on being the change

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Speaker 1: candidate in what I think is likely a change election

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Speaker 1: as Donald Trump does. That alone has completely reset the

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Speaker 1: race with regard to that Wall Street Journal poll. And

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about more about RFK Junior and

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Speaker 1: his role in how he fits into all of this

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Speaker 1: in the C block but when you make it the

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Speaker 1: five way race, when you include him and Jill Stein

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Speaker 1: and Cornell West, which they should include the Libertarian canon too,

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Speaker 1: I don't know whither're not odd, but yeah, because I

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Speaker 1: mean he'll be on more ballads than Cornell West anyway.

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Speaker 1: Putting that aside, Harris very clearly at this point is

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Speaker 1: benefiting more from having RFK Junior in the race than

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Speaker 1: Trump is. So in the five way race, she actually

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Speaker 1: is still within the margin of Arab error, but she

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Speaker 1: actually edges out Trump forty five forty four. So in

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Speaker 1: the overall it's Trump forty nine to forty seven, also

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Speaker 1: within the margin of error. In the five way it's

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Speaker 1: forty five forty four, which is also very important to

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Speaker 1: note here. But just a complete reset of the entire

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Speaker 1: matchup like that, it's incredible to say.

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Speaker 2: It is shocking, But I mean, as you said, let's

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Speaker 2: give that. Let's make sure we present a realistic picture.

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Speaker 2: We have the Fox News battleground polls. We can put

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Speaker 2: this up there on the screen, and what we see

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Speaker 2: in the battleground is that if we look at Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 2: we have effectively a tie at forty nine nine. In Michigan,

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Speaker 2: forty nine forty nine in Wisconsin actually shows chop up

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Speaker 2: by one.

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Speaker 3: Fifty to forty nine.

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Speaker 2: Minnesota is kind of the most interesting where you have

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Speaker 2: fifty two to forty six, and we'll bring that up,

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Speaker 2: I think in the VP section because it could possibly

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Speaker 2: change how Kamala Harris is thinking about who she's going.

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Speaker 3: To pick and what that would look like.

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Speaker 2: I would also say on the issues, there are several

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Speaker 2: issues which, considering at least what people self report, what

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Speaker 2: is most important that is going to significantly I think

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Speaker 2: till things in the Republican direction, although not as much

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Speaker 2: of a slam dunk as it previously was.

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Speaker 3: Let's go to the next one. Please.

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Speaker 2: This shows what issue is the most important in deciding

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Speaker 2: your vote. Number one is going to be economy or inflation.

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Speaker 2: These are for undecided voters. Number two is going to

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Speaker 2: be the quote candidate's character or competence. Three is immigration,

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Speaker 2: four is foreign policy, five is abortion, and six is

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Speaker 2: state of democracy and corruption. So abortion is actually the

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Speaker 2: abortion in democracy are the only two issues where there's

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Speaker 2: a massive clear edge for Kamala Harris. I believe Kamala

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Speaker 2: Harrison some plus fifteen percent or whatever favorability with respect

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Speaker 2: to Donald Trump in some head to head polling, but

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Speaker 2: on immigration, in foreign policy, foreign policy less so, but

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Speaker 2: immigration especially Trump has the leading edge. And on economy

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Speaker 2: and inflation, you actually see a pretty significant edge for

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. A lot of that is going to be

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Speaker 2: nostalgia from the last time around, but I will say this,

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Speaker 2: and I'm sure you recall in twenty twenty, we would

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Speaker 2: always ask the Trump people about the polling. We're like, listen,

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Speaker 2: this is a disaster, this is really bad. And what

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Speaker 2: they always came to us is they said, the economy

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Speaker 2: trust for Trump, even at the rock bottom of the

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Speaker 2: COVID pandemic and everything, is that Trump was still always

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Speaker 2: at least tied, if not leading Joe Biden on the economy,

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Speaker 2: and that number became far more predictive of the actual

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Speaker 2: vote number in twenty twenty than many of these BS polls,

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Speaker 2: Like what are they showed Trump Biden up by seventeen

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Speaker 2: points or something like that in Wisconsin in October. It

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Speaker 2: is ridiculous. Trump lost it by let's say one percent

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Speaker 2: something like that. And so if we look at that

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Speaker 2: economy figure, and remember, I mean, yes, there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of talk here about enthusiasm, etc. But some independence and

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Speaker 2: all those others coming out to vote. If they're breaking

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Speaker 2: on the economy, it's still not the best thing for

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris right now.

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Speaker 1: Well that may be changing because there's some new numbers out.

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Speaker 1: We didn't pull this, maybe we could put it in post.

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Speaker 1: This is from Atlas and they pulled on the issues,

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Speaker 1: and she's in this particular poll, she's tied with Trump

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Speaker 1: on the economy.

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Speaker 3: I haven't seen it on all.

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Speaker 1: Of these who would handle this in that issue better.

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Speaker 1: She's doing way better than Biden on everything across the boar,

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Speaker 1: on healthcare, on education, on the economy, which is really

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Speaker 1: interesting that people trust her way more than they do

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Speaker 1: Biden on the economy.

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Speaker 4: And I do think it.

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Speaker 1: Goes to the fact that people just felt like this.

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Speaker 4: Guy, how can I trust him on anything?

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Speaker 1: He's too old to do anything, so why would I

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Speaker 1: think that he's going to be like great for the economy.

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Speaker 1: So you know, even those numbers are really in flux

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Speaker 1: right now and really shifting. Like I said, this is

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Speaker 1: an Atlas Intel.

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Speaker 4: Poll that was in over the course of last week that.

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Speaker 1: Found her and Trump tied on the economache. I was

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Speaker 1: pretty shocked to see now again it's one pole. So

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Speaker 1: we'll see what else comes out with regards to that.

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Speaker 1: But you know, it is remarkable to see how even

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Speaker 1: in the battleground states, because that was Biden was kind

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Speaker 1: of hanging in there a little bit in the national polls,

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Speaker 1: in the battleground polls, he was just getting destroyed. So

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Speaker 1: even in the Fox News battleground state polls, she's pulling

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Speaker 1: even and winning quite clearly in the state of Minnesota.

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Speaker 1: And if you pull their favorability in those states, she

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Speaker 1: has a higher favorability than Trump in the Fox News

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Speaker 1: poll in each of these battleground states, So you know,

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Speaker 1: can't she's clearly there's an energy, there's an excitement her

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Speaker 1: team has done, which is it's the same team as

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Speaker 1: the Biden team, but they just have so much more

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Speaker 1: life and vitality to where she has so much more

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Speaker 1: life and vitality to her. They've done such a more

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Speaker 1: effective job than they were doing with Biden was all

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Speaker 1: this button up low restoring democracy, and they're just down

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Speaker 1: there like, yeah, this dude's weird and we don't like him.

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Speaker 2: I would also significantly not underestimate the money advantage because

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Speaker 2: one of the main things that we were driving Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden out of the race was the fact that the

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Speaker 2: donors basically locked it up. They're like, you're done, We're

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Speaker 2: not donating to you anymore. Kamala raised two hundred million

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Speaker 2: dollars in a single week. I believe that breaks the

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Speaker 2: all time record for the amount of dollars ever since.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that is alone not something that I would discount,

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Speaker 2: and you know, in a certain way, it's cash that

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Speaker 2: comes at exactly the right time. Statistically, the vast majority

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Speaker 2: of Americans don't pay attention until three weeks before election day.

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Speaker 2: Some people are beginning to tune in right now. Another thing,

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Speaker 2: and this is one of the caveats for a lot

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Speaker 2: of the polling that people should keep in mind. This

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Speaker 2: is a very very noisy environment. A lot of people

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Speaker 2: are still making up their minds abou Kamala Harris. They

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Speaker 2: don't know what they think about Kamala Harris. They're like, hey,

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Speaker 2: maybe I need to see her in a debate, I

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Speaker 2: need to see her in an interview.

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Speaker 3: I got to read it whatever.

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Speaker 2: You know, there's a lot of there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: change I think in the way that people could view her.

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Speaker 2: So it could go down, it could go up significantly too.

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Speaker 2: That's the other thing, and I don't think that we

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Speaker 2: have yet properly priced in the removal of Biden. Biden

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Speaker 2: was a noose around the neck of the Democratic Party

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Speaker 2: of basically all of the issues. Because even whenever it

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Speaker 2: comes down to trust in the economy, you have to

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Speaker 2: factor in and you're like, this guy is so old,

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Speaker 2: he's gonna be like he's on the verge of death.

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Speaker 2: And when you think about it, just colors the way

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Speaker 2: that you look at everything. So it's almost like a

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Speaker 2: different light bulb has come on, and it's a different

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Speaker 2: heuristic that we're all viewing the entire world, and especially

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Speaker 2: for Democratic voters. And actually, I think that's the most

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Speaker 2: significant change for me is if we think back to

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty and why Trump lost, a lot of it

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Speaker 2: came down to not actually just getting the basic mail

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Speaker 2: in ballots of like boomer Republicans who didn't show up

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Speaker 2: to vote on election day. Democrats loved them statistically, especially

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Speaker 2: the older ones, very vote more than everybody else. And

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Speaker 2: so to get them, let's say their enthusiasm has gone

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Speaker 2: from fifty to one hundred, which effectively is where it is.

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Speaker 2: Let's say that the factors. You know, a couple ten

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Speaker 2: thousand more votes in every swing state.

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Speaker 3: That's it.

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Speaker 2: That's the margin of victory. You don't even have to

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Speaker 2: convince anybody. You can just drive out normal people voted

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Speaker 2: for Obama in twenty twelve, and you can easily clock

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Speaker 2: this entire thing. That is a huge, huge change that

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Speaker 2: a lot of people are not grow at least the

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Speaker 2: smart Republicans I've seen are grappling with this.

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Speaker 3: Ye They're like, hey, this enthusiasm.

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Speaker 2: This is a major problem because the gap between MAGA,

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Speaker 2: which was always turned up to like eighty probably now

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Speaker 2: at one hundred versus you know, eighty five Democrats where

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Speaker 2: a previous was on the floor around twenties.

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Speaker 3: That is the biggest X factor I think right now, no.

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Speaker 4: Doubt about it.

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Speaker 1: And I mean as much as I object on principle

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Speaker 1: to these like white affinity groups that are the white

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Speaker 1: dudes for Kamala and white women for Kamala and all

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Speaker 1: this stuff, the numbers they're getting on.

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Speaker 4: These organizing colds are insane.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the white women one had like what one

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand.

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Speaker 3: It was the biggest zoom call in all of history.

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Speaker 2: I believe the white dudes for Kamala, Harris has like

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twelve. Yeah, I mean, look, I agree

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Speaker 2: with you. Do we really need to balkan eyes on

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Speaker 2: like ex Group Kama. Can we just be for Kamala

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Speaker 2: or Trump?

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Speaker 3: Please? Is that too much to ask?

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Speaker 1: Well, imagine if there was like a white dude for Trump,

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Speaker 1: the white people would lose for that anyway. Putting that aside,

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Speaker 1: the energy is clearly real because I mean they did

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Speaker 1: the black women for Kama.

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Speaker 4: It was like fifty thousand black men.

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Speaker 1: For Conda was like fifty thousand people on these calls

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Speaker 1: raising millions of dollars.

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Speaker 4: And these are your.

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Speaker 1: People who are on a phone bank and they're gonna

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Speaker 1: door knock and they're going to kick in there ten

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Speaker 1: bucks a month or whatever. None of that, None of

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Speaker 1: it was happening for Joe Biden. The last thing I'll

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Speaker 1: say before we can move on to Kamala's first ad

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Speaker 1: because it kind of it's kind of a good segue

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Speaker 1: to this. One thing that was really important about that

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Speaker 1: David Leenhardt tweet thread that we put up before. Is

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Speaker 1: he saying, look, you guys are talking all about democracy.

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Speaker 1: Kamala has changed the rhetoric she's using about the democracies

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Speaker 1: on the ballot. It's less you know, existential and pearl

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Speaker 1: clutchy and more like, these are a bunch of weird

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Speaker 1: freaks who want to take your stuff away. But she's

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Speaker 1: still primarily focused on that. And what he's pointing out is, listen,

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Speaker 1: the people who feel like that's their number one thing.

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Speaker 1: They're already with you, right the Democratic base now they

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Speaker 1: are locked in, they're with you. You're good there, girl.

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Speaker 1: Where you need to focus is on economics.

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Speaker 4: Funny.

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Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders made very similar comments to that, and once

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Speaker 1: again got accused of being sexist for saying that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's just it's insane, because he said very

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Speaker 1: similar things when it was Joe Biden.

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Speaker 4: He was like, we need to talk about.

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Speaker 1: Going after the millionaires and millionaires, you know, his whole thing.

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Speaker 1: This is his whole thing, and if you don't, you're

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Speaker 1: not going to win. He said something similar about Kamala

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Speaker 1: Harris and all these Oh, he's just sexist. He doesn't

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Speaker 1: think a woman can win, et cetera, et cetera. No,

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Speaker 1: he's one hundred percent correct. If you want to win,

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Speaker 1: you need to actually run on an affirmative economic agenda,

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Speaker 1: like a very clear one. Just a few things that

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Speaker 1: you're going to do that separate you from the Republican

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Speaker 1: economic agenda. And if you don't, he's absolutely right that

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Speaker 1: you have a great chance of losing the election if

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Speaker 1: you aren't focused on the issues that undecided voters care

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Speaker 1: the most about. That parlays into the messaging that obviously

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Speaker 1: parlays into the VP pick. I will tell you I

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Speaker 1: think Tim Wallis is a fantastic job messaging on middle

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Speaker 1: class and working class economics. But in any case, I

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Speaker 1: think the numbers are really clear that is she actually

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Speaker 1: wants to win, which right now today, given the poll numbers,

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Speaker 1: I would still give the edge to Donald Trump because

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Speaker 1: we know the polls typically when he's been on the ballot,

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Speaker 1: and now the polls are all over the place these days,

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Speaker 1: but typically when he's on the ballot, they tend to

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Speaker 1: understate his support. I would not feel comfortable with where

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Speaker 1: the polls are today if I was the Democratic Party,

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Speaker 1: if I was Kamala Harris. If you actually want to win,

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Speaker 1: you need to be clear about an affirmative economic agenda.

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Speaker 1: I think the numbers are really clear on that.

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Speaker 2: That's a good transition then to the ad. So we

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Speaker 2: can see here kind of what she's going with. And

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Speaker 2: this is part of where her getting the Biden campaign

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Speaker 2: team and all of the apparatus transitioning over to her

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Speaker 2: not be you know, the benefit that some people think

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Speaker 2: it is. It is in case she's bad at running.

437
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 2: You know, she's bad at running organizations. She ran a

438
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:10,680
Speaker 2: disastrous campaign last time around. But their emphasis and their

439
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:13,160
Speaker 2: knowledge of like how to campaign and prosecute the case

440
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 2: may not be exactly the one that you said, simply

441
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:17,119
Speaker 2: because Biden is not capable of they're doing that.

442
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:19,439
Speaker 3: He's not really capable of doing anything anyway.

443
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 2: Let's take a listen here to her very first ad

444
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 2: and compare some of that messaging, looking at the polling

445
00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:25,880
Speaker 2: and kind of where things could trend from there.

446
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:26,760
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.

447
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,920
Speaker 5: In this election, we each face a question what kind

448
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:36,880
Speaker 5: of country do we want to live in? There are

449
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 5: some people who think we should be a country of chaos,

450
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:45,399
Speaker 5: of fear of hate, but us, we choose something different.

451
00:20:49,680 --> 00:21:03,919
Speaker 5: We choose freedom, the freedom not just to get fine,

452
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 5: but get ahead, the freedom to be saved from gun violence,

453
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 5: the freedom to make decisions about your own body. We

454
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,680
Speaker 5: choose a future where no child lives in poverty, where

455
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,359
Speaker 5: we can all afford health care, where no one is

456
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:19,280
Speaker 5: above the law.

457
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 2: We believe in.

458
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 5: The promise of America, and we're ready to fight for

459
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:28,960
Speaker 5: it because when we fight, we win. So join us.

460
00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 5: Go to Kamalaharis dot com and let's get to work Comma.

461
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:33,720
Speaker 3: Cable running because I win.

462
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 4: I don't quit on themselves.

463
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 2: So it gives you a taste kind of that. I

464
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:46,879
Speaker 2: don't know, what do you think. I mean, the abortion

465
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 2: messaging on that is always very potent. I would say

466
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,440
Speaker 2: that that's one of the Democrats road to victory, but

467
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:54,879
Speaker 2: I didn't see enough there to try and convince people

468
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 2: to vote for it. I mean, look, at the same time,

469
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,640
Speaker 2: it's our very first ad, right they need to get

470
00:21:58,880 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 2: cross ads and all that.

471
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 3: I would say it was a bad ad.

472
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:03,159
Speaker 2: It's one of those where as long as you hammer

473
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,119
Speaker 2: home abortion the quote unquote freedom agenda, and you like

474
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 2: mention some economics there at the end.

475
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:10,440
Speaker 3: I don't know. I wouldn't say it was the best.

476
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 3: I wouldn't say it was bad either.

477
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 2: It's definitely better than whatever Joe Biden was putting up there,

478
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 2: and as part of the difficulty and all this analysis,

479
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 2: the normal rules don't apply because when your previous candidate

480
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 2: was so old and people were so despondent, I mean,

481
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 2: and that's one thing when you can't really count out

482
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:27,399
Speaker 2: so many people who were really hated Donald Trump and

483
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 2: we're just resigned to lost that we're in a state

484
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 2: of what we can only describe is basically depression. And

485
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 2: then that flipped on a complete dime, and their enthusiasm

486
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,400
Speaker 2: here from the white Lady call or.

487
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 3: What pink you know, on the on the zoom and

488
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 3: all that. Listen.

489
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 2: I can make fun of it all I want, and

490
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 2: I do think it's a weird phenomenon, but I am

491
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,359
Speaker 2: not stupid enough to say, hey that this is not

492
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 2: going to matter. This stuff matters a lot whenever it

493
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 2: comes to voting, and given the potency they've been able

494
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 2: to bring to politics from Ohio to Kentucky to Kansas,

495
00:22:58,119 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 2: never count them out.

496
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah, no, I actually I think it's a good ad.

497
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: I think it's a good opening ad, and mostly not

498
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 1: because of the like, you know, the specific things that

499
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 1: she says about abortion or you know, children in poverty

500
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 1: or healthcare or whatever. It's more just it's joyful, it

501
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 1: feels fresh, it feels joyful. Joe Biden couldn't put it out.

502
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 1: Donald Trump couldn't put it out. And so if you

503
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 1: feel like the energy in this election, which I think

504
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:28,440
Speaker 1: it is, is, uh, we need something different, we want change,

505
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 1: we want a different vibe. Like to me, this ad,

506
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 1: the essence of it captures that kind of sense of

507
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 1: joy and this sense of a vibe shift and also

508
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,919
Speaker 1: the off the charts enthusiasm on the Democratic side for

509
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:42,920
Speaker 1: this new candidate. So as an opening pitch, I think

510
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 1: it's I think it's actually very good. Also, it's also

511
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 1: worth talking a little bit about the ad spend to

512
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 1: this point. She hasn't she hasn't I think, still really

513
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 1: gone up on the air in a significant way. So

514
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 1: Trump is dramatically outspending her at this point in the

515
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 1: battleground states. The other thing that's worth mentioning is while

516
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 1: Biden was absolutely tanking, part of what was holding him

517
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 1: up at all was he was dramatically outspending Trump in

518
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: the battle ground states. And even with that dramatic outspend,

519
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 1: we saw the way the poll numbers were trending. So

520
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 1: you can look at this and say wow, even without

521
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 1: really spending any money yet and on the back of, of course,

522
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:29,199
Speaker 1: a wave of free media coverage, et cetera, Kamala Harris

523
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 1: has really come up and given the Democrats a fighting chance.

524
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 1: Here to your point about the you know, enthusiasm among women,

525
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 1: we can put this up on the screen presidential polling

526
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 1: among suburban women. So, Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump by

527
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 1: twelve points among suburban women fifty two to forty. In

528
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 1: the last Biden poll it was basically tied Biden forty four,

529
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:56,119
Speaker 1: Trump forty one. This is Harris sex, which tends to

530
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 1: be kind of a Republican leaning poll. But so I

531
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 1: would just pay attention to the trend here. She is

532
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:04,880
Speaker 1: doing much, much, much much better among this demographic set.

533
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 1: Just on the top line numbers. And then and when

534
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 1: you talk about, you know, I'm going to organize, I'm

535
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:12,439
Speaker 1: going to be on the white ladies call, I'm going

536
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: to phone bank, I'm going to kick in some money,

537
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 1: et cetera, those numbers are even more astonishing what she's been.

538
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 3: Able to pull off.

539
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's look again, I'm not many people are like,

540
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 2: how can you not point out all the flaws the

541
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 2: whole point of the segment is to just show, look,

542
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 2: she's still losing, but it's just you're in a better

543
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 2: position than anybody Joe Biden ever could have been. As

544
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 2: I said, I would probably give her forty you know,

545
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 2: sixty forty, i'd put it in Trump direction, while I

546
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 2: was giving Biden a ten percent chance victory. Yeah, so

547
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 2: that's a massive change if we think about what the

548
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 2: percentage base are. And you know, I think I made

549
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 2: a joke the ladies election. I really think that's what

550
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 2: it's all going to be about, especially whenever you've got man.

551
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:57,160
Speaker 2: This is one of those where again previously everyone decided

552
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,880
Speaker 2: after Hillary loss it was sexism or whatever that cost her.

553
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:02,439
Speaker 2: I don't think there was ever a better time to

554
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 2: have a woman who is at the top of the

555
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 2: Democratic Party. You have a huge amount of suburban white

556
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 2: women especially who are voting for them in bigger numbers

557
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,639
Speaker 2: than ever before, and when abortion is the centerpiece. Can't

558
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 2: look even as a guy talking about abortion, it's weird,

559
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 2: right because one of the other things, what do people

560
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 2: always say, well, you don't know the stakes. I mean,

561
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 2: in a certain sense, they're not wrong, like there is

562
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 2: something like personal about the issue. Not saying I'm not

563
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 2: allowed to have an opinion, but it feels strange. But

564
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 2: to have a woman who's quote unquote prosecuting the case

565
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 2: on or to talk about it, I think as a strength,

566
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 2: it's one of those where, look, I think you can

567
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 2: drive people out more, you can talk about it more

568
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 2: personal terms, and especially whenever it's against Trump and the

569
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 2: person who appointed all the people for Rowe versus Wade,

570
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 2: it's gonna hit different than Joe Biden, who you know,

571
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 2: I don't know, it's weird, like old energy or whatever

572
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 2: about it. He never particularly found his sweet spot on abortion.

573
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 2: He was just a beneficiary of it. Part of the

574
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 2: reason why people like Gretchen Whitmer and other politicians like

575
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 2: her have been doing so much better than Joe Biden

576
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 2: at a state by state levels. So anyway, I would

577
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 2: put that where I probably this is probably the best

578
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:04,959
Speaker 2: time to ever have a Democrat who's a woman at

579
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 2: the top of the ticket.

580
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 1: She benefits from the fact she is the sitting vice president,

581
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 1: so you know, that helps people imagine her in the role.

582
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 1: That's always the benefit of being the sitting vice president.

583
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,479
Speaker 1: That's why they so often go on to be their

584
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 1: party's dominees. And you know, in history becoming the president

585
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 1: of the United States, so she benefits from that.

586
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 4: But she seems to be at this point.

587
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 1: Kind of unsaddled by the Biden track record and the

588
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 1: way people feel about the Biden administration, because they're not

589
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,120
Speaker 1: wrong to perceive she was on the ounce with them,

590
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 1: you know. So she has this at this point, this

591
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 1: kind of sweet spot of getting the benefits of being

592
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:44,479
Speaker 1: in the office and having all of the credibility that

593
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:48,120
Speaker 1: that confers without having to be saddled with the record

594
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: and the you know, at least in public perception. I'm

595
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 1: not saying that's the way people should look at it,

596
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 1: but in terms of public perception, she's not burdened by

597
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 1: the record and is being able to shake off the

598
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 1: sort of Biden funk very quickly. If we just look

599
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 1: at her favorability rating to your point on abortion, just

600
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 1: to follow up there, there are very few things that

601
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 1: I think Kamala Harris actually believes.

602
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,880
Speaker 4: Like she's finger in the wood. There's no doubt.

603
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 1: You look at her record in California versus in the

604
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 1: Senate versus when she's running for president versus under Biden.

605
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 4: I mean, she's all over the place.

606
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,120
Speaker 1: She clearly does you know wherever she thinks it's most

607
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 1: advantageous to be no doubt about that. The one issue

608
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: where I think she that's probably not true is abortion. Yeah, Like,

609
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 1: I think she really believes it. I think she's very

610
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 1: credible on it. And Joe Biden, he is has throughout

611
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: his career barely been pro choice.

612
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,719
Speaker 4: He's been one of the most pro life Democrats.

613
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 1: He's Catholic, like his own faith, you know, is impacts

614
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:45,719
Speaker 1: the way he views the issue. And then his just

615
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: identity is like an old dude who doesn't have a

616
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: direct connect to the issue and hasn't had a direct

617
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 1: connect to the issue for a long time. Yeah, he

618
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 1: was not a good messenger. He didn't want to talk

619
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 1: it about it, He didn't really talk about it much,

620
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 1: and so on. That vote on that issue, which is

621
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: very animating at this point, is the most animating culture

622
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 1: war issue I think in the country right now. She

623
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: is an effective and credible messenger. And that's why that's

624
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 1: one of the reasons why I feel like, actually, counter

625
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 1: to the narrative of like, oh my god, we're to

626
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 1: racist and sex is still elect a woman, I actually

627
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 1: think that her gender in particular is an affirmative asset

628
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 1: for her in this moment as a Democrat.

629
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again, you know, this is where you got

630
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 2: to kind of put the media programming out and try

631
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 2: and look at this subjectively. It's like, in a time

632
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 2: I've done, how many monologues have I done about how

633
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 2: we're bifurcating amongst gender lines. It's like, well, if you're

634
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 2: going to be a predominantly female party, especially with the

635
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 2: volunteers and with the swing base, then you probably should

636
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 2: have a woman.

637
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 3: In the top of the decade. It's one at that point.

638
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 2: It's like one of those where it's very obvious if

639
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:46,719
Speaker 2: you look at it is, if you just look at

640
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 2: where the trends are going, the base coalition, the most volunteers.

641
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 2: I don't think it's an accident that the biggest zoom

642
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 2: call in history was literally white women for Kamala that

643
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 2: Hammens And where's a lot of the money coming from.

644
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 2: Who are the big female celebrity Jennifer Aniston and all

645
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 2: these other people were war They're going to war exactly.

646
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 3: It's like, look, I don't count them out.

647
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 6: You know.

648
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 2: It's one of those where I've seen enough recent evidence

649
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 2: in politics to show that they're very very persuasive, and

650
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 2: that they can. They again, they vote more than anybody else.

651
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 2: If I am Trump, I am JD. They need to

652
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 2: run as far away from abortion as humanly possible. Now,

653
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 2: obviously the Democrats are going to try it not to

654
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 2: so I still believe that this will in a Trump victory.

655
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 2: This will be the immigration economy election. I think all

656
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 2: of the money that they're going to spend is Kamala.

657
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 2: Borders are Kamala open border and everything, and then all

658
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 2: the Democrats should be talking about is abortion and the

659
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 2: economy as well. We can war over the economy, and

660
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 2: then the defining issue of either will come to decide

661
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 2: who actually wins in these especially in the swing States,

662
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 2: because that is where too both abortion and immigration are

663
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 2: very very hot issues.

664
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 3: Because they're genuinely contested.

665
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 2: There are differing views, and I also would say dramatic, right,

666
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 2: because on the economy, it's one of those where look,

667
00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 2: I think it's difficult to say it's parse the nuance

668
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 2: and child tax credit, et cetera.

669
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 3: For a lot of people. They're not looking at it

670
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 3: in those terms.

671
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 2: But let's be honest, I mean the daylight between Kamala

672
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 2: and Trump on immigration is you know, titanic, and same

673
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 2: on abortion.

674
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 3: You literally have somebody.

675
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 2: Who appointed the justices that took down Roversuwade and somebody

676
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 2: who says, I want to codify it nationwide.

677
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 3: The difference between that, again is titanic and that.

678
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 2: Is where I get the Barry Goldwater line a time

679
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 2: for choosing. I really believe that's where the sorting in

680
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 2: the individual mind of people as to what's going to

681
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 2: get them out to the to the ballot box.

682
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 3: That's where it will come down to.

683
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 2: And that's the actual issue set that they're going to

684
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 2: have to work on, both of them, because they're both

685
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 2: going to try and spend billions of dollars either way

686
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 2: to convince people on the other side.

687
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: Let me just ask you this before we move on

688
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 1: to the VP thing. What do you think of the

689
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 1: like We actually are going to talk about this a

690
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 1: little more in the VP conversation, but what do you

691
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 1: think of the like these people are just weird thing?

692
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I look, this is this is I'm

693
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 2: going to say this for everybody. It is very difficult

694
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 2: for me to be ejective. JD is somebody who I

695
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 2: have known for a long time. I knew him on

696
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 2: a personal level. So it is hard for me to

697
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 2: sit here and to separate my own personal feelings and not.

698
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 2: So I've tried to take a pull of the women

699
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 2: in my life, yeah, and others who I talk to,

700
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 2: and I think it breaks along relatively partisan lines. So

701
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 2: amongst my pro life friends, they don't care at all

702
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 2: about the JD cat lady comments that said. My Democratic

703
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 2: friends or like lean socially liberal, they were never going

704
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 2: to vote for Trump either, but it does really piss

705
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 2: them off. So my question is then, well, were you

706
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 2: ever going to vote? Are you really going to vote

707
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 2: on this? Were you already voting for Biden or not?

708
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 2: The weird thing is where look? And again, you know,

709
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 2: this is very difficult for me because it's like, well,

710
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 2: what do people find weird? I think for a lot

711
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 2: of women people to the whole childless cat lady thing,

712
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 2: it pisses them off. But then if you're like right wing,

713
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 2: you're like, okay, well what pisses you? What do you

714
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 2: find weird? Like drag queen transgenderism. You've got a bunch

715
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 2: of transflags here in the Kamala add I find that

716
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 2: quite weird.

717
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 3: But that's not what liberal people find weird.

718
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 2: So that's where I'm like, it's going to be about

719
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 2: who you what you personally find weird and objectionable.

720
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 3: Does that make sense? That's That's the only way I

721
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 3: can put it. Is it.

722
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 2: I think it's very in the eye of the beholder,

723
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 2: and I remain to be seen how it actually will

724
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 2: be digested by the public.

725
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 1: I think it's so much better messaging than the like

726
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 1: we must restore democracy. You know, It's just it's like

727
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 1: the way that a that a normal person would talk

728
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 1: about a person, a candidate, et cetera.

729
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 4: And you know, taking Trump and JD.

730
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 1: Out of it because I don't want to, you know, it's.

731
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 4: It's uncomfortable for me. Also, no, he's your friend.

732
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 3: When I will have a panel tomorrow where we're gon

733
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 3: we're going.

734
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 7: To take into the catless cat lady situation.

735
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 1: But you know, I think part of why Republicans underperformed

736
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two was we've been saying extremism right,

737
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 1: stop this deal and you know, abortion and this whole

738
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 1: this group of issues that just read as like fringe extremism,

739
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 1: weird sort of like a normy way of defining that is, like,

740
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 1: you guys are in these you know, weird online niche subcultures,

741
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 1: floating crazy ideas like oh, if you're you have more

742
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,360
Speaker 1: more kids you have, the more you get to vote,

743
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 1: which is pretty antithetical to the way most people feel. Like, Okay,

744
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 1: one person, one vote, seems like kind of a thing

745
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 1: we've been doing here for a while and seems like

746
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 1: a pretty good bedrock principle. So I think that putting

747
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:25,799
Speaker 1: that vibe and that label over everything they do, it's

748
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 1: honestly kind of trumpy, like the way he's in the

749
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,760
Speaker 1: past with Crooked Hillary, for example, been able to tag

750
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 1: her with a label that then everything kind of feeds

751
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,399
Speaker 1: into and it creates this overarching image. I actually think

752
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 1: it is very effective and it's interesting, and this can

753
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:42,880
Speaker 1: help a segue after I get your reaction to the

754
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 1: VP thing, because it was Tim Wallas, the governor of Minnesota,

755
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:48,840
Speaker 1: who came up with that, the former high school teacher

756
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 1: who has this, you know, sense of how to talk

757
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,279
Speaker 1: to normal people very clearly, who would workshop this and

758
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 1: gotten big response to it. And that's he says it

759
00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 1: on cable news and it just takes off because it

760
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 1: landed in this way of like, yeah, that's that's it.

761
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 1: That's the way to kind of frame this whole thing

762
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 1: that's going on.

763
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 3: I would put it this way.

764
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 2: It connects to why Republicans lost in twenty twenty two,

765
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 2: which was it was about election denialism, right, it was

766
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:19,879
Speaker 2: about the whole like stop the steal vibe of Trump sycophancy,

767
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 2: but a lot of it is this is where look,

768
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 2: this is my biggest difference from JD and many other

769
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:26,680
Speaker 2: Republicans is I'm not Christian.

770
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 3: I'm not like a hardcore Christian.

771
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 2: And that is weird because in America today, much of

772
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 2: the chagrin of my Christian friends, we are a very

773
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 2: socially liberal country. Compared to where we were ten years ago,

774
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 2: compared to where we go twenty five years ago, we

775
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 2: live in a different America. Social libertarianism is the predominant

776
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 2: strain of how most people view social issues. Even on

777
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 2: the trans thing. It's not so much that the objection

778
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,879
Speaker 2: for the average person is like, oh, well, we need

779
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 2: to block this and ban it. It's like, well, some

780
00:35:58,040 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 2: people should be able to make their own choice up

781
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:01,839
Speaker 2: until the age of eighteen, but let's keep it away

782
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 2: from kids, right. And that's actually very different than the

783
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 2: way if you were to ask conservative Catholics, They're like, no,

784
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 2: I need to ban this straight up. And then same

785
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 2: with abortion, where anybody who's trying to tell you what

786
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 2: to do. The social ninism, there is a social ninism

787
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 2: of the BLM moment where everyone's like, you're not if.

788
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 3: You're not actively anti racist spend, you're a racist.

789
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 2: Like hold on, don't tell me who the fuck I am, right,

790
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 2: Like I have my own ideas, don't tell me to

791
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 2: use certain pronouns, etc.

792
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 3: Well, this is kind of the like.

793
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 2: As a person who grew up amongst evangelical Christians in

794
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 2: the nineties in Texas, I understand this viscerally and deeply,

795
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 2: where when people try to tell you how to live

796
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:40,760
Speaker 2: your life right whenever what you're doing, it's an annoying

797
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 2: part of the reason I hate the modern left.

798
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 3: That's exactly the same why So there.

799
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 2: It gets to the telling you what to do and

800
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:50,839
Speaker 2: being because authoritarian is not even the.

801
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 3: Right word, but being prescriptive based.

802
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:55,359
Speaker 2: On something that the vast majority of the Americans no

803
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 2: longer quote unquote believe in. That is where I think

804
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 2: it probably connects more than anything, And I think that's

805
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:02,240
Speaker 2: the kindest way.

806
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 4: I can put this well, there's a whole.

807
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 1: Ecosystem incentive also, and I see this on the left too,

808
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 1: where the way to get clout is to be as

809
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:16,479
Speaker 1: like edgy and controversial. So specifically with regard to Jadie

810
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 1: Vance and I'm talking about parents whatever, like if you're

811
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 1: going to come out in favor of a child tax credit,

812
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 1: first of all, our tax code already advantages that.

813
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 3: Rishs me off.

814
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:26,880
Speaker 4: But but hold on, let me, let me just finish

815
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:27,239
Speaker 4: my thought.

816
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 1: If you're going to come out in favor of child taxer, okay,

817
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:33,879
Speaker 1: seventy percent of the country agrees with you. But he

818
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:37,840
Speaker 1: intentionally phrased it in a way to make it feel

819
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 1: edgy and like counterculture, because that's what is rewarded in

820
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,319
Speaker 1: online ecosystems. And he, you know, always kind of had

821
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 1: to like prove himself to the magabas because he was

822
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 1: the guy who was saying Trump, maybe America Hitler and

823
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 1: all of this, so he's had to prove himself really hardcore.

824
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 1: So he phrases it in a way rather than like, hey,

825
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 1: you know, like parenthood is amazing and we need to

826
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:02,879
Speaker 1: help parents and families and kids, et cetera. Instead it's

827
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 1: like we need to judge and punish those who are

828
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 1: childless and don't have kids, and so you he framed

829
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,440
Speaker 1: it in the most possible intentionally framed it in the

830
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 1: most like off putting, like what the hell are you

831
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 1: talking about? This is weird kind of a way, because

832
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:23,880
Speaker 1: all of the rewards in the ecosystem are to being

833
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 1: edgy and fringe versus you know, on a previous media ecosystem,

834
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:30,760
Speaker 1: all of the rewards would be how do I frame

835
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: my policy in a way that appeals broadly to people

836
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 1: and makes the best case for it and doesn't like

837
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 1: instantly repel half the population.

838
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 2: I don't think it's a mistake that the clips that

839
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 2: have gone viral about JD are all running in the

840
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 2: Republican primary.

841
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 4: That's right, Josh me, Yeah, that's exactly right.

842
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 3: Twenty one, right, and that's when he was on Tucker

843
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:47,840
Speaker 3: and that's when he was trying.

844
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 4: To apply to be as MAGA as well.

845
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 2: And I don't think it's a mistake that those of

846
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 2: what's gone most viral, because that's not really how he's

847
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 2: talked since post twenty twenty two, right, And that is

848
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:58,919
Speaker 2: I would say a lesson to people out there. It's

849
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 2: also varyative of the left right, where we had the

850
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 2: same like you have to prove your bona fides and Shibolitz.

851
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 2: And actually a lot of the Republican attack ads on

852
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 2: Kamala are coming from the Democratic debates and the primary.

853
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 2: Don't think it's a mistake healthcare to illegal immigrants. You're

854
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 2: not running on that in a prime or a general election,

855
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 2: but there's a clip and it exists, So yeah, I

856
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 2: think you're correct. There definitely is a rewards system that

857
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 2: is built and all of that. I will just say

858
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:25,799
Speaker 2: on the policy. Seeing Dave Portnoy and these people freak

859
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 2: out about it, He's like, why should I have to

860
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 2: pay taxes more as a childless person, It's like, well,

861
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 2: you already do, dude. The US tax code is built

862
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 2: to incentivize marriage and having children. Just so we all

863
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 2: understand dependence and the marriage penalty quote unquote for or whatever,

864
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:44,359
Speaker 2: the marriage incentive where you have a higher deduction limit, etc.

865
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 2: So the US tax code is already built that way.

866
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 2: I'm just saying, so all of you, if you think

867
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:51,399
Speaker 2: that the progressive tax code or whatever is fair, then

868
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:53,879
Speaker 2: you agree with that baseline message. And that's the only

869
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 2: thing that's annoyed me is there is this weird libertarian

870
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 2: instinct where like if you can't have kids, or if

871
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 2: you can't afford to have kids, then you shouldn't have

872
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 2: any kids.

873
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 3: And it's like, well, what society we do want to

874
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 3: live in?

875
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 2: Mister Portnoy's worth two hundred million dollars or whatever. So

876
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 2: I will just say that, but that is a tension.

877
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 2: I agree with you.

878
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 4: Which do you feel like poor?

879
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 1: I don't know all the things announce on his politics,

880
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 1: but I feel like it could. I mean, he is

881
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,760
Speaker 1: like a conservative republic business.

882
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 3: Like he's a libertarian, like, yeah, but that.

883
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 4: Makes sense from a libertarian perspective. His yeah, his position

884
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 4: is consistent with a libertarian perspective.

885
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:30,439
Speaker 3: No, No, you're right, but I mean I think that's

886
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 3: a stupid view.

887
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 8: I don't agree with you. It's like obvious, you know,

888
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 8: if you live in a society, the tax code is

889
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 8: already built. The tax code is built to incentivize at

890
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 8: a personal level, getting married, having children, starting a business,

891
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:45,520
Speaker 8: and owning real estate. Basically those were actually now solar

892
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 8: if we include the IRA, I think that's fine.

893
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 3: I think those are good things. We should use the tax.

894
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:53,280
Speaker 2: Code to try and have more socially desirable outcomes. Ninety

895
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 2: nine point nine percent of people at an individual level

896
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 2: would agree with me on that. Then, yes, whenever it

897
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:00,479
Speaker 2: comes to the framing, et cetera, I would just say

898
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 2: that the incentive structures for winning a Republican primary do

899
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 2: not always, you know, obviously, come out to being beneficial

900
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 2: in a general election, and that is part of what

901
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:14,439
Speaker 2: led so many Republicans down a path to defeat back

902
00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two. Blake Masters is another perfect example

903
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 2: where you had a guy running in Arizona who has

904
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:22,839
Speaker 2: to out Maga everybody else.

905
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 3: And what does he do.

906
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 2: He starts talking about not just repealing Roe versus Wade,

907
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 2: He's in a national pro life legislation.

908
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,080
Speaker 3: He starts talking about going after.

909
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 2: Like Griswold and like birth control right, and people are like,

910
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 2: whoa hold on a second, dude.

911
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 3: What's happening here?

912
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 2: And again, that was an incentive structure that was built

913
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 2: in to winning a hard right prime. If you look

914
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 2: at what he's in running right now, him versus I

915
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:48,360
Speaker 2: don't even know this guy's name, Abe Hammada or whatever.

916
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:50,400
Speaker 3: This is a crazy primary.

917
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:54,239
Speaker 2: It's all about who's more Maga than American. Yeah, Trump's

918
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:56,319
Speaker 2: now endorsed both of them. Was the most Trump thing

919
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 2: of all time. Carrie Lake is backing Abe, so even

920
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,359
Speaker 2: figure out who's the most maga on the right. If

921
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 2: you guys want to go see real madness, go look

922
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:06,400
Speaker 2: at some of the ads they're running against.

923
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 1: But again, the other problem with Blake Masters was that

924
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 1: he just came off as weird, like in his ads,

925
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 1: in his public appearances, you were just like, the sky

926
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 1: is weird, and then you hear, you know, his ideas

927
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 1: also feel weird and fringe.

928
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 3: Whatever.

929
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 1: But that's why I think the tach the tag does work.

930
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 1: I do think that is effective. But yeah, I mean,

931
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 1: it's going to be it's going to be interesting to

932
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 1: see how they respond to all of this. And I

933
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:37,840
Speaker 1: also don't want to overstate how much the VP pick matters,

934
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 1: but I do think that having jd Vance on the

935
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 1: ticket with Trump, especially now that especially now that you

936
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 1: have Kamala Harris as the Democrat's choice, like, it makes

937
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:53,280
Speaker 1: the contrast more stark. It makes it makes it easier

938
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 1: for them to land those sorts of attacks. And then

939
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 1: just one other thing that's like, you know, just my

940
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:01,759
Speaker 1: nerdy self gets irritated about this conversation is like, it

941
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 1: was Democrats who supported the child tax credit overwhelmingly. So

942
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 1: if we're like in the business of you know, we

943
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:08,359
Speaker 1: should have a child tax credit, it's like, you're right,

944
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 1: Gamlah Haarre supported one and the Republicans didn't.

945
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 3: So yeah, fair.

946
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 2: Point, especially if you're talking about Mitch mcconnley and all that.

947
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 2: I think my advice for the Republicans is stop playing

948
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 2: the media game. I saw Vivek being like, it's not weird,

949
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 2: it's June. I'm like, guys, when you are defending what

950
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,880
Speaker 2: is the ironclad ruined politics, When you're explaining yourself or

951
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:28,360
Speaker 2: defending yourself, you lost.

952
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 3: So what do we do. We don't talk about weird.

953
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:34,240
Speaker 2: We're talking about immigration because that's the number one area

954
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 2: where most Americans agree with Republicans and Trump, and we're

955
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 2: not talking about abortion. That's the only thing that we're

956
00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 2: talking about. In fact, something that Jad did which I

957
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:45,320
Speaker 2: thought was smart, is he I don't exactly know what happened,

958
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 2: but Kamala was like see watching him transform back into

959
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 2: a normally Republican is interesting to me because in the

960
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:54,879
Speaker 2: primary and all of that, a lot of this didn't

961
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 2: come out, but you forget how general election politics really works.

962
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 2: If something about Comma questions what has he ever done

963
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 2: for this country? I think it was something like that,

964
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:02,560
Speaker 2: and he's like.

965
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 3: All it was a marine in Iraq.

966
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 2: I served my country and I raised you know, I

967
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 2: fought for my country. And I was like, oh, this

968
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 2: is such a return to like four just like almost

969
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 2: like Republican tropes about who's served and who's not. But

970
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 2: you forget that that actually lands with a lot of people.

971
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:23,000
Speaker 2: He has not, you know, defended himself whatever against weird

972
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 2: and I would not play that game. That's not a

973
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 2: game that I think you're going to win because it's

974
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 2: a frame which you don't even want to be in the.

975
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:31,800
Speaker 1: Fighting on their battleground exactly your far off Hillary Clinton

976
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 1: was on therapy like I'm not crooked. It's like, okay,

977
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 1: well now we're just fighting on there.

978
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 3: She did fight it right, and that's watching right.

979
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 1: I mean, so yeah, anytime you're fighting on the battleground,

980
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:43,279
Speaker 1: your enemy lays out you were likely losing. And it's

981
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 1: something that Trump has been brilliant.

982
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, she change the conversation.

983
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:47,799
Speaker 4: He is has been.

984
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:51,359
Speaker 1: That has been his greatest political skill has been able

985
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 1: to set the terms of the conversation, and so I

986
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:56,839
Speaker 1: think it has to be driving him insane that you know,

987
00:44:57,040 --> 00:45:01,360
Speaker 1: more weeks so after his assassination attempt and no one's

988
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 1: talking about that, like searches for it have fallen off

989
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 1: a cliff. All of the cable news discussion et cetera.

990
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:11,400
Speaker 1: News media discussion is around Kammlin, whoever VP pick is

991
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:13,760
Speaker 1: going to be and isn't Jadey Vance, weird and child

992
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 1: as cat ladies. And it has been a rare period

993
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 1: where Democrats have actually been setting the terms of the conversation.

994
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:23,760
Speaker 1: And you know, I don't think that they'll be able

995
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:27,040
Speaker 1: to continue that indefinitely because this is a skill he

996
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 1: continues to possess and he'll say something wild and send

997
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 1: everybody else into a frenzy to discuss it, et cetera,

998
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 1: et cetera. But that's part of why she has come

999
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 1: up in the polls so quickly the race is completely reset,

1000
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 1: is because they have been very effective at and E Listen,

1001
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 1: the media wants them to succeed. So I don't want

1002
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:48,000
Speaker 1: to deny that onside of Fox News wants them to succeed.

1003
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 1: But they are playing the cards. They've been dealt very well.

1004
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:52,440
Speaker 1: Right now, which almost never happens.

1005
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:54,319
Speaker 2: So the media is calling it honeymoon phase, and I

1006
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 2: think I totally agree with that. Yeah, that's it, that

1007
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:58,879
Speaker 2: we are in the honeymoon phase of the Democrats. There

1008
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 2: will be a disaster interview coming soon. There will be

1009
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:05,120
Speaker 2: a Trump comment coming soon. There will be I mean, listen,

1010
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,800
Speaker 2: we're going to the DNC. You know, some crazy shit's

1011
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:08,760
Speaker 2: going to go down at the DNC.

1012
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 3: I don't know what.

1013
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 2: Maybe some un committed delegates are going to scream in

1014
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 2: the middle of the thing. Maybe somebody's going to try

1015
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 2: and challenge her, the speech is going to go wrong, plagiarism.

1016
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 3: We never know.

1017
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 2: And that's the thing in America. If the last two

1018
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 2: months have taught you anything is that things can change.

1019
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 4: We don't forget anything.

1020
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 3: Ye things can change, folks. So never just.

1021
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 2: Think that whatever the current dynamic is is going to

1022
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 2: go on forever, because it could be the two months

1023
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 2: from now, we won't even remember this entire conversation.

1024
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:40,560
Speaker 1: Let's get to the VP conversation that I've teased like

1025
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 1: eighteen times at this point, so we're getting a clearer

1026
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 1: picture of who the type top candidates are likely to be.

1027
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 1: It's actually funny because two different news organizations reported two

1028
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 1: different like this is definitely her top three, but it

1029
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 1: looks like the top contenders are Governor Tim Walls of Minnesota.

1030
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:02,960
Speaker 1: My personal faith. Really, he's former high school teacher, he's

1031
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 1: a veteran. He flipped a very red district in Minnesota.

1032
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:09,239
Speaker 1: He wins the state easily. I'm going to play in

1033
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:12,399
Speaker 1: a minute. He speaks very, very comfortably and easily about

1034
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:14,960
Speaker 1: middle class issues. And he's actually the one that came

1035
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 1: up with the weird tag that I do think is effective.

1036
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 1: Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro, whose favorability ratings in the

1037
00:47:23,520 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 1: state are sky high. Newpole had him at like sixty

1038
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 1: one percent approval rating in the state of Pennsylvania. He

1039
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 1: won his election for governor so easily, running against a

1040
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 1: guy who, again a lot of people thought was pretty weird.

1041
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:37,759
Speaker 1: He sounds like Jewish Obama, many are saying. I think

1042
00:47:37,760 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 1: when we play some of him, you will see that

1043
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 1: as well. Governor Andy Basheer of Kentucky. Andy is the

1044
00:47:43,360 --> 00:47:47,360
Speaker 1: most popular Democratic governor in the entire country, even in

1045
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:50,280
Speaker 1: spite of the fact that first of all he was governing.

1046
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:52,839
Speaker 1: He got himself reelected. He was governor during a very

1047
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 1: fraught political time in terms of COVID in what is

1048
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 1: a now a hard read state, and yet he still

1049
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 1: has very high rating. He is pitching himself hard for

1050
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 1: the job and really trying to strike like an apple

1051
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 1: lachin contrast with Jade Vance as well, that's been effective

1052
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:11,320
Speaker 1: at times. You have another governor, North Carolina's governor, Roy Cooper.

1053
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 1: He and Kamala have known each other for quite a while,

1054
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 1: going back to their time as ag another Democrat winning

1055
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:22,440
Speaker 1: in in you know, fairly read state, raising the question,

1056
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 1: especially with the different coalition Kamala brings the table. Hey,

1057
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:26,759
Speaker 1: if we have Roy Cooper on the ticket, is a

1058
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 1: possible butt North Carolina in play. Joe Biden only lost

1059
00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:31,600
Speaker 1: it by less than two points last time around, so

1060
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:34,440
Speaker 1: question mark there. And then the other one people are

1061
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 1: talking about is Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, astronaut swing.

1062
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 4: State, etc.

1063
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:44,480
Speaker 1: He also has a pretty high approval rating within the

1064
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:48,360
Speaker 1: state of Arizona. Well known guy, has some issue unions

1065
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 1: or not in love with him. And then there's also

1066
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:53,800
Speaker 1: the issue of initially, if he were to be VP,

1067
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 1: the Democratic governor would pick his replacement. However, that replacement

1068
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 1: then would have to run again in twenty twenty five.

1069
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,319
Speaker 1: I think it is so a little bit you know,

1070
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 1: diceier in terms of the Senate and giving up that seat.

1071
00:49:06,040 --> 00:49:08,680
Speaker 1: In any case, we put together because we wanted to

1072
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:10,880
Speaker 1: go deep on each of these As her pick is

1073
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:13,440
Speaker 1: relatively imminent, we'll probably get it. I think within like

1074
00:49:13,480 --> 00:49:15,840
Speaker 1: the next week, I'll learn who her top pick is.

1075
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 1: So we wanted to go deep on each of these individuals,

1076
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:20,439
Speaker 1: give you, guys, a real sense of them. Our team

1077
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 1: has done a fantastic job pulling together some clips so

1078
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:26,120
Speaker 1: you can get, you know, a sense of the type

1079
00:49:26,120 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 1: of rhetoric and their affect, their vibe, so to speak.

1080
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 4: So let's go.

1081
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:34,280
Speaker 1: Ahead and start with Minnesota Governor Tim Walls talking here recently.

1082
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:35,000
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen.

1083
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:39,320
Speaker 9: Why is it so hard to understand when somebody else

1084
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 9: gets some right.

1085
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 6: It's not like a damn pie.

1086
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 9: Oh somebody got a bigger piece of I.

1087
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:46,320
Speaker 6: I don't get it. Rights aren't that way. There's enough

1088
00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:49,400
Speaker 6: for everybody. There's enough for everybody to be included.

1089
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:54,440
Speaker 9: Same thing with job, same thing with housing, same thing

1090
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 9: with healthcare.

1091
00:49:56,520 --> 00:50:02,720
Speaker 6: So you saw it. We are not going to allow

1092
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:03,720
Speaker 6: them to make the case.

1093
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 9: Yes they're a threat, but we're not going to stay

1094
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 9: in their frame. We're not going to stay where they're at.

1095
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 6: We're not going to play their game.

1096
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 9: We called them out for the weird nonsense that they believe,

1097
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 9: and we presented a different argument to the American public,

1098
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,879
Speaker 9: one where everybody matters, one where we can achieve, one

1099
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:22,200
Speaker 9: where we solve problems.

1100
00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 1: So he's got a lot of pluses in terms of

1101
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:27,520
Speaker 1: he's a very good communicator. He's got a good natural

1102
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:29,720
Speaker 1: everyman vibe. For those of you who are just listening,

1103
00:50:29,719 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 1: he's there and just like a T shirt and a hat,

1104
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:33,440
Speaker 1: and it doesn't feel try hard. It feels very natural.

1105
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:37,800
Speaker 1: He flipped a red congressional seat. This is James Medlock

1106
00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 1: tweeted this this morning in a largely rural area. Held

1107
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 1: it even in a cycle where Trump won that district

1108
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:46,879
Speaker 1: by plus fifteen. He's the only Democrat to win that

1109
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:49,760
Speaker 1: district since nineteen ninety two. Like you said, very popular

1110
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 1: in Minnesota, and he has the rare combination of having

1111
00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 1: the like moderate everyman vibe, but his track record in

1112
00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:00,880
Speaker 1: the state is really quite impressive. With a one seat majority,

1113
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:05,600
Speaker 1: they've they've passed universal free school lunches. They did a

1114
00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:10,359
Speaker 1: great legislation on labor, on wages, on the environment, sort

1115
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:12,880
Speaker 1: of across the board in terms of the progressive priorities,

1116
00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 1: so you would.

1117
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:14,720
Speaker 4: Be very much pleasing.

1118
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:17,840
Speaker 1: I can tell you the progressive young base of the

1119
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:20,920
Speaker 1: party in particular, who are very walls pilled at this point,

1120
00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:24,120
Speaker 1: I think for good reason. But he also has that

1121
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 1: like swing state appeal and Midwestern appeal that could be

1122
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:30,160
Speaker 1: a real electoral asset. And the last thing I'll say

1123
00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:32,880
Speaker 1: about him Sager is, as I mentioned before, he is

1124
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:35,319
Speaker 1: the one who in his sort of like cable news

1125
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 1: VP auditions came up with the tag of weird that

1126
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:42,479
Speaker 1: has been rapidly embraced by Kamala Harris. So I would

1127
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:44,160
Speaker 1: think that that would be a point in his favor

1128
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:46,879
Speaker 1: that he's already sort of proven his effectiveness in terms

1129
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:48,120
Speaker 1: of messaging against the GP.

1130
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:51,759
Speaker 3: He's not bad, normal vibe, you know all that.

1131
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 2: I would say, unbalanced, a stronger Democrat than many others.

1132
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 2: My only case against him would be Harris's up by

1133
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:00,920
Speaker 2: plus six in Minnesota, and we're in the fight of

1134
00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:04,520
Speaker 2: our lives in Pennsylvania, in Michigan, in Wisconsin. The translation

1135
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:06,960
Speaker 2: of Minnesota to the rest of the states may make

1136
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 2: some sense, but it seems better to me to pick

1137
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:12,919
Speaker 2: an overwhelmingly popular Democratic governor of that state. If we're

1138
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:16,080
Speaker 2: just going for Pa alone. Remember too, Pa is probably

1139
00:52:16,120 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 2: the most contested of the big three Midwestern states. That

1140
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:23,080
Speaker 2: Trump is probably the most popular in and so, and

1141
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:25,160
Speaker 2: he got shot in Pennsylvania. Let's not forget that either.

1142
00:52:25,400 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 2: So all those things combined, I'm still just not sure

1143
00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:28,359
Speaker 2: he's the best pick.

1144
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:31,839
Speaker 1: So let's take a look at you're talking about Trennsylvania

1145
00:52:31,840 --> 00:52:34,880
Speaker 1: Governor Josh Shapiro, who is doing his very best Obama

1146
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:38,080
Speaker 1: in impression at all times, popular in the state, got

1147
00:52:38,719 --> 00:52:39,560
Speaker 1: easily elected.

1148
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to him.

1149
00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 10: Okay, you could not have a clear contrast in this race.

1150
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 10: You could not have a clear contrast between Kamala Harris

1151
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 10: and Donald Trump.

1152
00:52:53,280 --> 00:52:55,920
Speaker 6: Let me tell you something. He's pretty afraid.

1153
00:52:56,320 --> 00:53:00,160
Speaker 10: Yo, sees we're backing out in the bank now in

1154
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:02,320
Speaker 10: tone to toe with our vice president.

1155
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:05,239
Speaker 6: You know why that is.

1156
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 10: It's not just because she's a skilled debater. It's not

1157
00:53:10,239 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 10: just because she's got the right positions on the issues

1158
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:16,520
Speaker 10: the matter most to the good people of Pennsylvania and

1159
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:17,240
Speaker 10: this country.

1160
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 6: Because he can't run away from his record any long. Yeah, yeah,

1161
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:22,040
Speaker 6: think about it.

1162
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:26,160
Speaker 10: Four years as president, Guy stacks the NLRB with a

1163
00:53:26,200 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 10: bunch of corporate folks who have tried to rip away

1164
00:53:29,160 --> 00:53:30,839
Speaker 10: your rights every step of the way.

1165
00:53:31,120 --> 00:53:34,240
Speaker 6: We can't go back to that, and he can't defend.

1166
00:53:33,800 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 3: That doing his best Obama press.

1167
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:38,839
Speaker 2: Let's can't hate him, but listen to this Fox News favorability.

1168
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:42,319
Speaker 2: Much Fox News favorability. Kamala Harris forty nine to forty nine.

1169
00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:44,040
Speaker 2: This is in the state of Pennsylvania. Donald Trump forty

1170
00:53:44,080 --> 00:53:47,239
Speaker 2: six to forty three. Jos Shapiro sixty one thirty two.

1171
00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:50,880
Speaker 2: He is up there with favorability with Andy Basheer in

1172
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:54,319
Speaker 2: terms of d governors in at least swing and or

1173
00:53:54,680 --> 00:53:57,320
Speaker 2: red states. So a sixty one percent approval rating a

1174
00:53:57,360 --> 00:54:01,800
Speaker 2: two thirds increase for favorability vers disfavor in the forty

1175
00:54:01,880 --> 00:54:03,439
Speaker 2: nine forty nine battleground state.

1176
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:05,479
Speaker 3: That's I mean, that's as good as it gets.

1177
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 4: So here's here's a couple of issues with Shapiro.

1178
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:11,080
Speaker 1: First of all, I fucking hate that fake Obama impression.

1179
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 1: There is an entire generation of Democratic politicians Cory Booker,

1180
00:54:16,520 --> 00:54:21,480
Speaker 1: Beta O'Rourke, Pete boodaget, this dude apparently who modeled their

1181
00:54:21,719 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 1: entire speaking cadence after Barack Obama.

1182
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:27,359
Speaker 4: His might be the most shameless I have ever heard.

1183
00:54:27,719 --> 00:54:31,640
Speaker 3: Well he whisper combined with the upswing.

1184
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:33,360
Speaker 1: You can just hear him his next line being like,

1185
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:36,919
Speaker 1: don't boom boom, you know, uh no, okay, But that's

1186
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:40,759
Speaker 1: only that's just my personal like my personal issue in

1187
00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 1: terms of my my irritation with his speech cadence, but

1188
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:45,760
Speaker 1: in terms of you know what could be some knocks

1189
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:47,719
Speaker 1: on him, because there's no doubt the electoral record and

1190
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:50,439
Speaker 1: the favorability is impressive. You're looking at a swing state,

1191
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:52,200
Speaker 1: et cetera, critical swing state.

1192
00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:53,719
Speaker 4: Number one.

1193
00:54:54,440 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 1: He compared pro pal signed protesters to the KKK and

1194
00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:02,239
Speaker 1: all of the like youthful excitement and willingness to give

1195
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:05,480
Speaker 1: Kamala a chance, all of that stuff. You can instantly

1196
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 1: deflate it by having someone who went so hard against

1197
00:55:09,680 --> 00:55:12,719
Speaker 1: the protesters. And that is a distinction from the other

1198
00:55:12,800 --> 00:55:15,520
Speaker 1: candidates in the race who either were quiet or in

1199
00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:17,719
Speaker 1: Tim Wallas's case, actually was you know, sort of like

1200
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 1: affirmatively encouraging, like of the uncommitted movement, et cetera. So

1201
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:25,000
Speaker 1: I think Kamala's strength right now. The reason she's come

1202
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:27,239
Speaker 1: up in the poll so quickly is in large part

1203
00:55:27,520 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 1: because she's doing so much better with young voters. You

1204
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:32,319
Speaker 1: risk that if you have a choice like Joshapiro. So

1205
00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:32,960
Speaker 1: that's one.

1206
00:55:33,120 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 4: Number Two. He's got an issue with unions.

1207
00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:36,640
Speaker 1: He's a big this is again an O Mama thing,

1208
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:39,879
Speaker 1: big charter school guy. So you've got an issue with

1209
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:44,759
Speaker 1: with unions and unions in general. And Kamala has been

1210
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:47,839
Speaker 1: close with like Seiu and other parts of the labor movement,

1211
00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:49,400
Speaker 1: so that could be an issue. To other issue is

1212
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:53,280
Speaker 1: that their allegations he covered up sexual harassment within his office.

1213
00:55:53,400 --> 00:55:56,840
Speaker 1: So those are some of the potential drawbacks for Joshapiro.

1214
00:55:57,080 --> 00:55:57,560
Speaker 3: We'll see.

1215
00:55:57,880 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 2: I would still pick them. I think that the Palace

1216
00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:03,640
Speaker 2: Stein stuff, I think. Look, I still think it's relatively marginal.

1217
00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:06,480
Speaker 2: If we look at the overall number of people. Young

1218
00:56:06,480 --> 00:56:08,799
Speaker 2: people don't vote period. They may care about it, doesn't

1219
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:11,319
Speaker 2: mean they're going to vote at higher levels. Boomers are

1220
00:56:11,320 --> 00:56:15,600
Speaker 2: disproportionately much more pro Israel. This is the suburban ladies election,

1221
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:17,520
Speaker 2: not necessarily the college student election.

1222
00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:18,879
Speaker 3: It'd be nice if they cook all.

1223
00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:20,600
Speaker 4: Of these constituencies matter, though.

1224
00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:21,520
Speaker 3: Yes, but I think.

1225
00:56:23,239 --> 00:56:25,000
Speaker 2: Thirty eight year old ladies matter a lot more, I

1226
00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:26,560
Speaker 2: think than younger people.

1227
00:56:26,640 --> 00:56:29,800
Speaker 4: Also, you've got those that lady young people.

1228
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:31,680
Speaker 2: You would have to presume that they're a single issue

1229
00:56:31,719 --> 00:56:34,000
Speaker 2: voter on Israel Kaza, which I do not believe at all.

1230
00:56:34,040 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 2: I don't think there's less than three hundred thousand people

1231
00:56:36,120 --> 00:56:38,120
Speaker 2: in this country are going to single issue vote on

1232
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:41,440
Speaker 2: Israel Kaza. So that means people are multifaceting, and a

1233
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:42,839
Speaker 2: lot of them are either going to pull the thing

1234
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 2: or not. And so I think they probably will come

1235
00:56:44,600 --> 00:56:46,680
Speaker 2: out to vote for her, because all she's got to

1236
00:56:46,719 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 2: do is throw some crumbs in their direction and they'll

1237
00:56:49,120 --> 00:56:52,280
Speaker 2: probably come along. Anyways, they can irrationalize in your head. Second,

1238
00:56:52,360 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 2: on the teachers union thing, I agree that it's not

1239
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:58,239
Speaker 2: necessarily like the best thing, but you know, on the

1240
00:56:58,320 --> 00:57:01,440
Speaker 2: charter schools and all that, this is very unfortunate. But

1241
00:57:01,520 --> 00:57:04,240
Speaker 2: union membership is near all time lows in the United States,

1242
00:57:04,320 --> 00:57:08,399
Speaker 2: so organized SEIU coming out to vote, even teams throughs

1243
00:57:08,480 --> 00:57:10,600
Speaker 2: vote and all that stuff, it doesn't matter as much as.

1244
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:12,240
Speaker 3: It did, let's say in the nineteen seventy.

1245
00:57:12,320 --> 00:57:15,080
Speaker 1: Sure, yeah, but there's still an important influential course the

1246
00:57:15,080 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 1: Democratic Coalition in terms of fundraising, in terms of organizing,

1247
00:57:19,800 --> 00:57:22,400
Speaker 1: et cetera. And so I think you're right with regard

1248
00:57:22,480 --> 00:57:25,320
Speaker 1: to young people in terms of voting, But all of

1249
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:30,120
Speaker 1: the enthusiasm that we're talking about, like that matters as well,

1250
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:31,760
Speaker 1: that you're going to have people who are out there

1251
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:34,960
Speaker 1: door knocking, phone banking, meming on, you know, with the

1252
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:37,919
Speaker 1: zoomers on, TikTok all of that stuff, and you risk

1253
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:39,880
Speaker 1: that with the Shapiro, where you do not risk that

1254
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:43,040
Speaker 1: with the Walls. So you know, that's why I think

1255
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:45,680
Speaker 1: he's a safer pick. Nate Silver did a big analysis

1256
00:57:45,720 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 1: of like how much it matters where a VP pick

1257
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:52,200
Speaker 1: is from, and the home state advantage that is conferred

1258
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:53,920
Speaker 1: is like very very.

1259
00:57:53,880 --> 00:57:57,840
Speaker 2: Very very al Gore is a classic example a state. Yeah,

1260
00:57:58,040 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 2: here's my counter to that. We're this is an exceptional time.

1261
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 2: Kamala coming in so late in the game. I think

1262
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:07,040
Speaker 2: the VP pick for her is going to matter more

1263
00:58:07,040 --> 00:58:10,600
Speaker 2: than any modern VP pick in modern history, simply because

1264
00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:11,680
Speaker 2: it's definitional.

1265
00:58:11,720 --> 00:58:13,640
Speaker 3: It's like who is coming on board?

1266
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 2: Here is where I think Shapiro, too, being such a

1267
00:58:17,120 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 2: unique figure. A governor is a very different pick than

1268
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 2: a Senator. You know, let's be honest, Like Senator is

1269
00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:26,600
Speaker 2: much more of a Washington figurehead to a state like

1270
00:58:26,640 --> 00:58:30,439
Speaker 2: al Gore was, as opposed to the popular governor who

1271
00:58:30,560 --> 00:58:33,640
Speaker 2: people in Pennsylvania know and like having him on the ticket.

1272
00:58:33,840 --> 00:58:35,800
Speaker 2: I'm just saying there's a lot of confounding factors. So

1273
00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:37,960
Speaker 2: you're not wrong. But it's like me saying debates don't

1274
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:39,680
Speaker 2: matter in history. It's like, yeah, they don't matter until

1275
00:58:39,680 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 2: they do. So this is where if there was ever

1276
00:58:42,400 --> 00:58:45,280
Speaker 2: a time where the VP pick for her mattered the most,

1277
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:46,480
Speaker 2: I think it would be this election.

1278
00:58:46,600 --> 00:58:49,600
Speaker 1: All Right, we've got another popular governor, this one of Kentucky,

1279
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:53,520
Speaker 1: Andy Basheer, who got himself elected and then re elected,

1280
00:58:53,640 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 1: as I said before, most popular democratic governor and the

1281
00:58:56,960 --> 00:58:59,400
Speaker 1: entire country, in spite of it being the state of Kentucky.

1282
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 1: A lot of that I think not being in the

1283
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:04,480
Speaker 1: state anymore. But a lot of that I think has

1284
00:59:04,520 --> 00:59:08,000
Speaker 1: come from the fact that he number one has leaned

1285
00:59:08,040 --> 00:59:13,120
Speaker 1: into a populist message in a populist state of Kentucky.

1286
00:59:13,120 --> 00:59:16,320
Speaker 1: He got elected initially on the back of the teacher

1287
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:19,520
Speaker 1: strike wave and rejection of these sort of like you know,

1288
00:59:19,560 --> 00:59:22,840
Speaker 1: cutting pensions and going after public services. That was very

1289
00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 1: effective for him. And then he has brought a lot

1290
00:59:26,040 --> 00:59:28,360
Speaker 1: of jobs to the state of Kentucky. A lot of

1291
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:32,080
Speaker 1: these new battery manufacturing plants are coming to Kentucky. So

1292
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:34,240
Speaker 1: he's had a record that has been very clear in

1293
00:59:34,280 --> 00:59:36,760
Speaker 1: terms of like delivering benefits. And it happens that a

1294
00:59:36,800 --> 00:59:39,480
Speaker 1: lot of those jobs have been like new economy, green

1295
00:59:39,600 --> 00:59:42,640
Speaker 1: energy jobs. So that's what has been a strength for

1296
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:45,160
Speaker 1: him in terms of the state of Kentucky. Let's take

1297
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:47,160
Speaker 1: a listen to a little bit of how hey sounds.

1298
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:50,120
Speaker 3: This is not my first speech on the back of

1299
00:59:50,120 --> 00:59:50,920
Speaker 3: a pickup truck.

1300
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:55,080
Speaker 11: If you don't know me, I'm the guy that last

1301
00:59:55,160 --> 01:00:01,160
Speaker 11: November beat Mitch McConnell's hand pick Canada. I'm the guy

1302
01:00:01,240 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 11: that last he'll ever beat Donald Trump's hand pick can

1303
01:00:04,960 --> 01:00:06,360
Speaker 11: Are you ready to voute?

1304
01:00:07,280 --> 01:00:10,640
Speaker 6: Are you ready to meet Donald Trump? Are you ready

1305
01:00:10,640 --> 01:00:14,720
Speaker 6: to beat jd Nance? Are you ready to elect Kamala

1306
01:00:14,720 --> 01:00:16,320
Speaker 6: Harris President of the United States?

1307
01:00:16,360 --> 01:00:17,160
Speaker 1: Amata out?

1308
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:20,720
Speaker 6: That was thank you, let's win this ready.

1309
01:00:22,680 --> 01:00:25,600
Speaker 1: So that was him at a campaign stop in Georgia.

1310
01:00:26,520 --> 01:00:30,560
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris campaign event in Georgia. You know, he really

1311
01:00:30,600 --> 01:00:33,440
Speaker 1: came out. He's been picked pitching himself pretty hard like

1312
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:35,400
Speaker 1: he's been. He's been trying pretty hard in the VP

1313
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:37,640
Speaker 1: steaks Zuger. I think it's fair to say, but you know,

1314
01:00:37,720 --> 01:00:39,880
Speaker 1: one of the things that went viral for him was

1315
01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:42,240
Speaker 1: him making a contrast with Jadie Vance and going after

1316
01:00:42,320 --> 01:00:44,400
Speaker 1: him like, you're not from here, You're not really a

1317
01:00:44,480 --> 01:00:48,320
Speaker 1: representati of Appalachia. And uh Andy's got that, you know,

1318
01:00:48,520 --> 01:00:53,440
Speaker 1: that nice country drawl and his his red state record.

1319
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:56,600
Speaker 1: Downside for him is it's obviously not a swing state,

1320
01:00:57,680 --> 01:01:00,720
Speaker 1: So you know, does that factor into the decision here?

1321
01:01:00,880 --> 01:01:01,680
Speaker 4: Does he come off.

1322
01:01:01,600 --> 01:01:03,680
Speaker 1: As trying a little too too hard in terms of

1323
01:01:03,720 --> 01:01:05,080
Speaker 1: getting the VP nomination?

1324
01:01:05,200 --> 01:01:06,120
Speaker 4: That's another issue.

1325
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:09,440
Speaker 1: One point in his favor and Joshapiro's favor Androy Cooper's

1326
01:01:09,480 --> 01:01:15,040
Speaker 1: favor is they all were attorney attorneys general, and they

1327
01:01:15,280 --> 01:01:19,640
Speaker 1: all coincided at least briefly, I think, with Kamala Harris's

1328
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:23,160
Speaker 1: tenure as attorney general. So if she's looking for another

1329
01:01:23,320 --> 01:01:25,240
Speaker 1: like we're going to prosecute the case, or even to

1330
01:01:25,280 --> 01:01:28,280
Speaker 1: someone that she knows and has familiarity with, that's an

1331
01:01:28,320 --> 01:01:30,200
Speaker 1: asset for those three candidates in peratain.

1332
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:33,040
Speaker 2: Andy's a talented politician, but it's not nineteen ninety two

1333
01:01:33,120 --> 01:01:35,040
Speaker 2: Bill Clinton earraw where you know what I'm saying, Like,

1334
01:01:35,120 --> 01:01:38,800
Speaker 2: we're not going for Southern Democrats who might be like

1335
01:01:38,880 --> 01:01:41,960
Speaker 2: that constituency that he could flip doesn't exist, Like we're

1336
01:01:41,960 --> 01:01:45,200
Speaker 2: going all in for two hundred and seventy one electoral votes.

1337
01:01:45,240 --> 01:01:47,720
Speaker 2: We need to go midwest here. That's the only logical

1338
01:01:47,800 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 2: choice that makes any sense to me. We're playing to

1339
01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:54,520
Speaker 2: win for in the game of pure margins of more

1340
01:01:54,560 --> 01:01:58,800
Speaker 2: than one percent in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Georgia, Great Arizona,

1341
01:01:58,880 --> 01:02:01,880
Speaker 2: Great Nevada, great that we actually need to win this election.

1342
01:02:02,000 --> 01:02:04,080
Speaker 2: So for her, I think if you look at that,

1343
01:02:04,240 --> 01:02:06,480
Speaker 2: picking somebody from an R plus thirty three state just

1344
01:02:06,560 --> 01:02:07,640
Speaker 2: doesn't make any damn sense.

1345
01:02:07,760 --> 01:02:10,680
Speaker 1: The case for him would be, you know, it's not

1346
01:02:10,760 --> 01:02:13,160
Speaker 1: about I'm going to bring you deliver Kentucky. It's I

1347
01:02:13,240 --> 01:02:17,000
Speaker 1: have a proven track record of winning over skeptical people.

1348
01:02:17,360 --> 01:02:20,840
Speaker 1: And you know, the Southern accent, it just codes as conservative,

1349
01:02:20,960 --> 01:02:24,320
Speaker 1: it just does. And so the you know, white he's

1350
01:02:24,400 --> 01:02:26,400
Speaker 1: like the whitest man on the planet. People are sharing

1351
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:28,920
Speaker 1: like the picture of him and his family whatever. They're like,

1352
01:02:29,080 --> 01:02:31,280
Speaker 1: if you're looking for the whitest person available.

1353
01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:32,200
Speaker 4: This is your guy.

1354
01:02:33,000 --> 01:02:36,200
Speaker 1: So you know, he codes moderate to conservative, and I

1355
01:02:36,240 --> 01:02:39,680
Speaker 1: think he's governed in relatively moderate to conservative way of Kentucky.

1356
01:02:39,760 --> 01:02:42,640
Speaker 1: But he is good on labor and some key issues there.

1357
01:02:42,720 --> 01:02:44,760
Speaker 1: So in any case, that would be the case for him.

1358
01:02:44,800 --> 01:02:46,560
Speaker 1: As not like I'm going to deliver you the state

1359
01:02:46,560 --> 01:02:49,600
Speaker 1: of Kentucky. But I have a track record of appealing

1360
01:02:49,640 --> 01:02:51,080
Speaker 1: to the type of voters that are going to be

1361
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:52,480
Speaker 1: both skeptical of you.

1362
01:02:52,920 --> 01:02:53,640
Speaker 4: And you can see it.

1363
01:02:53,560 --> 01:02:55,920
Speaker 1: In the fact that I got elected and re elected.

1364
01:02:55,960 --> 01:02:57,320
Speaker 1: So I think that would be the case for him.

1365
01:02:57,360 --> 01:02:59,200
Speaker 3: It's a fine case. I don't think it exists today.

1366
01:02:59,240 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 2: I actually, you know, open primary is a very different

1367
01:03:01,200 --> 01:03:03,480
Speaker 2: story I think in an open general election, but in today,

1368
01:03:03,640 --> 01:03:05,720
Speaker 2: who she is, where she's running, and who she needs

1369
01:03:05,760 --> 01:03:07,439
Speaker 2: to win, I don't think it makes as much sense,

1370
01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:09,800
Speaker 2: especially when you consider who he's up against.

1371
01:03:09,880 --> 01:03:11,320
Speaker 3: I also do think he's trying too hard.

1372
01:03:11,720 --> 01:03:13,360
Speaker 2: I mean, in a certain sense, I don't blame him

1373
01:03:13,360 --> 01:03:15,480
Speaker 2: because I'm like, listen, Kentucky governor, where do you go?

1374
01:03:15,640 --> 01:03:15,800
Speaker 3: You know?

1375
01:03:15,840 --> 01:03:18,200
Speaker 2: And is he already rich? He comes from a political dynasty.

1376
01:03:18,240 --> 01:03:20,120
Speaker 2: It's like, well, what else, what else do we have left?

1377
01:03:20,280 --> 01:03:20,520
Speaker 3: VP.

1378
01:03:20,760 --> 01:03:23,200
Speaker 2: That sounds great heart beat away from the presidency. So

1379
01:03:23,480 --> 01:03:25,800
Speaker 2: I don't blame him per se, But this is politics.

1380
01:03:25,840 --> 01:03:27,680
Speaker 2: Mean you can't you can't wear your ambition too much

1381
01:03:27,720 --> 01:03:28,200
Speaker 2: on your sleep.

1382
01:03:28,320 --> 01:03:30,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, you know, he he does come from a

1383
01:03:30,880 --> 01:03:32,080
Speaker 1: political dynasty family.

1384
01:03:32,120 --> 01:03:32,480
Speaker 4: I don't know.

1385
01:03:32,520 --> 01:03:34,880
Speaker 1: I don't know that he personally is like that wealthy.

1386
01:03:34,920 --> 01:03:37,640
Speaker 1: He's not like one of the super blue bloods in

1387
01:03:37,640 --> 01:03:42,480
Speaker 1: the state of Kentucky. But he definitely the limit for

1388
01:03:42,680 --> 01:03:45,600
Speaker 1: only five million, Like, you're not going to win a

1389
01:03:45,720 --> 01:03:48,200
Speaker 1: Senate seat as a Democrat and Kentucky at this point,

1390
01:03:48,240 --> 01:03:50,440
Speaker 1: even if you are Andy Busher, Like, it's just exactly

1391
01:03:50,560 --> 01:03:53,680
Speaker 1: that shit has sailed. So yeah, he's termal limited out

1392
01:03:53,720 --> 01:03:56,280
Speaker 1: as governor. What else is he going to do? So

1393
01:03:56,560 --> 01:03:58,840
Speaker 1: he's making the pitch hard this is this is his

1394
01:03:59,000 --> 01:04:02,000
Speaker 1: chance or or you know, maybe if this doesn't work

1395
01:04:02,000 --> 01:04:04,160
Speaker 1: out for him and then Kamala loses, which is still

1396
01:04:04,200 --> 01:04:06,160
Speaker 1: the you know, more likely than not, I would say,

1397
01:04:06,200 --> 01:04:08,520
Speaker 1: then he's built up some sort of a national profile

1398
01:04:08,520 --> 01:04:10,440
Speaker 1: that he could use to make a potential twenty twenty

1399
01:04:10,440 --> 01:04:12,919
Speaker 1: eight run. So I don't blame him for really taking

1400
01:04:12,960 --> 01:04:15,120
Speaker 1: the moment to get out there as best he can either.

1401
01:04:15,680 --> 01:04:17,240
Speaker 1: I knew the guy a little bit when I lived

1402
01:04:17,240 --> 01:04:19,240
Speaker 1: in the state of Kentucky, and he does just come

1403
01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:22,240
Speaker 1: off as like mini van Dad, like you know, in

1404
01:04:22,240 --> 01:04:24,520
Speaker 1: spite of coming from the political dynasty family, he does

1405
01:04:24,560 --> 01:04:27,480
Speaker 1: come off as very sort of like normal, relatable, et cetera.

1406
01:04:27,600 --> 01:04:31,080
Speaker 1: He does not come off as a superstar charismatic political talent.

1407
01:04:31,480 --> 01:04:34,640
Speaker 1: That is not him whatsoever. But in any case, let's

1408
01:04:34,680 --> 01:04:36,600
Speaker 1: move on to the next governor on our list, Roy

1409
01:04:36,600 --> 01:04:40,840
Speaker 1: Cooper of North Carolina, which I read a whole thing

1410
01:04:41,000 --> 01:04:44,120
Speaker 1: about how he doesn't pronounce his last name Cooper. He

1411
01:04:44,240 --> 01:04:46,560
Speaker 1: pronounced it that with like, you know, the way you

1412
01:04:46,600 --> 01:04:50,280
Speaker 1: say foot with the oh and Cooper. Apparently it's like

1413
01:04:50,320 --> 01:04:54,000
Speaker 1: a eastern North Carolina pronunciation. But let me tell you

1414
01:04:54,040 --> 01:04:56,200
Speaker 1: about the whole nation's going to be calling you. Roy Cooper,

1415
01:04:56,800 --> 01:05:00,560
Speaker 1: governor of North Carolina, obviously red state popular figure, has

1416
01:05:00,640 --> 01:05:04,800
Speaker 1: governed as like a very sort of cautious, moderate type politician,

1417
01:05:05,120 --> 01:05:07,800
Speaker 1: exactly what you would expect from a North Carolina Democrat.

1418
01:05:07,960 --> 01:05:09,400
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to him.

1419
01:05:09,640 --> 01:05:12,720
Speaker 12: Donald Trump won North Carolina in twenty twenty by one

1420
01:05:12,760 --> 01:05:18,120
Speaker 12: point three percent. This was his closest win in Joe

1421
01:05:18,160 --> 01:05:22,520
Speaker 12: Biden's closest loss this was during COVID. During twenty twenty,

1422
01:05:23,440 --> 01:05:28,040
Speaker 12: Democrats really weren't doing the door to door taking people

1423
01:05:28,080 --> 01:05:33,080
Speaker 12: to the poll's work that Republicans continued to do through COVID.

1424
01:05:33,880 --> 01:05:37,520
Speaker 12: I believe that North Carolina is definitely on the table

1425
01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:41,400
Speaker 12: to win. I've told the President that. I told the

1426
01:05:41,480 --> 01:05:43,600
Speaker 12: Vice President of that when she and I talked the

1427
01:05:43,640 --> 01:05:47,440
Speaker 12: other day, it was clear that the Biden Harris campaign

1428
01:05:47,720 --> 01:05:50,680
Speaker 12: was targeting North Carolina. I think it's important for them

1429
01:05:50,720 --> 01:05:54,400
Speaker 12: to continue to do that. The threat to democracy that

1430
01:05:54,480 --> 01:05:58,440
Speaker 12: Donald Trump brings, the threat to women's reproductive freedom that

1431
01:05:58,480 --> 01:06:02,520
Speaker 12: he brings, and I think that's a message that will

1432
01:06:02,560 --> 01:06:04,960
Speaker 12: resound not only in North Carolina but across the country.

1433
01:06:05,080 --> 01:06:08,640
Speaker 1: So if you look up generic the Democrat in the textbook,

1434
01:06:08,720 --> 01:06:10,760
Speaker 1: like this is the guy. He's out of central casting.

1435
01:06:10,760 --> 01:06:13,120
Speaker 1: You can imagine playing like the president in a movie.

1436
01:06:13,160 --> 01:06:15,200
Speaker 1: You know, he's I guess those are the advantages for him.

1437
01:06:15,240 --> 01:06:17,720
Speaker 4: He's got that look. He's just got that very.

1438
01:06:17,600 --> 01:06:21,640
Speaker 1: Like, you know, standard politician kind of vibe, and that's

1439
01:06:21,720 --> 01:06:24,640
Speaker 1: kind of how he's governed. The other big edge I

1440
01:06:24,680 --> 01:06:26,840
Speaker 1: think he has in addition to being popular in the

1441
01:06:26,840 --> 01:06:29,320
Speaker 1: stage North Carolina, which maybe the team, the Kamala Harris

1442
01:06:29,400 --> 01:06:31,840
Speaker 1: team wants to put in play. The other big advantage

1443
01:06:31,840 --> 01:06:35,360
Speaker 1: that he has is I think he and Kamala have

1444
01:06:35,480 --> 01:06:39,400
Speaker 1: the longest personal relationship, and that may count for a lot.

1445
01:06:40,120 --> 01:06:41,800
Speaker 1: You know, if I was her and I was thinking

1446
01:06:41,800 --> 01:06:43,800
Speaker 1: about this choice and thinking about who I wanted to

1447
01:06:43,960 --> 01:06:46,640
Speaker 1: serve in the White House with for four, potentially eight years,

1448
01:06:47,560 --> 01:06:50,600
Speaker 1: I would I think I would really value actually knowing

1449
01:06:50,600 --> 01:06:53,160
Speaker 1: the person and having some track record of comfort with them,

1450
01:06:53,240 --> 01:06:55,440
Speaker 1: because this is going to be a very important person

1451
01:06:55,480 --> 01:06:58,480
Speaker 1: in your life. So to me, that's kind of the

1452
01:06:58,480 --> 01:07:01,920
Speaker 1: most compelling reason and why I think he's on the

1453
01:07:01,960 --> 01:07:05,240
Speaker 1: short list. To me, listen, as a communicator, he doesn't

1454
01:07:05,240 --> 01:07:07,400
Speaker 1: really do anything for me. It's not like a negative.

1455
01:07:07,400 --> 01:07:07,960
Speaker 1: He's fine.

1456
01:07:08,040 --> 01:07:08,480
Speaker 3: I just see.

1457
01:07:08,520 --> 01:07:10,040
Speaker 4: It doesn't get my heart racing.

1458
01:07:10,400 --> 01:07:12,320
Speaker 1: But I think he would definitely be a do no

1459
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:16,560
Speaker 1: harm type of candidate and could potentially help them to

1460
01:07:16,880 --> 01:07:19,520
Speaker 1: make North Carolina a theoretical possibility.

1461
01:07:19,520 --> 01:07:20,240
Speaker 3: You could do worse.

1462
01:07:20,600 --> 01:07:22,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is where I'm a little bit more skeptical.

1463
01:07:23,000 --> 01:07:25,200
Speaker 2: The only thing in the case is the personal relationship.

1464
01:07:25,360 --> 01:07:28,560
Speaker 2: Look Throughout history, almost always the vice president will take

1465
01:07:28,560 --> 01:07:30,680
Speaker 2: and the president are not close. It's very rare to

1466
01:07:30,680 --> 01:07:33,160
Speaker 2: have a close vice president and president. The president always

1467
01:07:33,200 --> 01:07:34,760
Speaker 2: just trust the vice president because they think they want

1468
01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:36,600
Speaker 2: to be president. It's one of the reasons that Dick

1469
01:07:36,680 --> 01:07:39,880
Speaker 2: Cheney was very unique because he never wanted to be president,

1470
01:07:39,880 --> 01:07:41,560
Speaker 2: and thus he was able to at least have some

1471
01:07:41,760 --> 01:07:44,040
Speaker 2: credibility with Bush. But that is an aberration, you know.

1472
01:07:44,080 --> 01:07:47,120
Speaker 2: The Kamala Biden relationship is the typical one where you

1473
01:07:47,760 --> 01:07:50,120
Speaker 2: put all the shit jobs on them, you make them

1474
01:07:50,120 --> 01:07:53,240
Speaker 2: look bad, you squeeze them out. They think that they're

1475
01:07:53,320 --> 01:07:56,800
Speaker 2: the air appointed. They beef with the personal staff, and

1476
01:07:56,840 --> 01:07:59,720
Speaker 2: then something happens like Biden's side not to run, and

1477
01:07:59,720 --> 01:08:01,600
Speaker 2: they up having to endorse them anyway, and there's a

1478
01:08:01,640 --> 01:08:04,560
Speaker 2: lot of bad blood that eventually gets written about fifteen

1479
01:08:04,640 --> 01:08:05,080
Speaker 2: years from now.

1480
01:08:05,080 --> 01:08:07,240
Speaker 3: That is the typical vice presidential relationship.

1481
01:08:07,320 --> 01:08:07,720
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1482
01:08:07,760 --> 01:08:10,880
Speaker 1: Well, part of one of the knocks I've seen on

1483
01:08:10,920 --> 01:08:13,480
Speaker 1: Shapiro is that he is one that wears his ambition

1484
01:08:13,640 --> 01:08:14,120
Speaker 1: very heavily.

1485
01:08:14,280 --> 01:08:15,200
Speaker 3: I can see that true.

1486
01:08:15,280 --> 01:08:18,720
Speaker 1: And so if she's worried about that, yeah, about him

1487
01:08:18,760 --> 01:08:21,200
Speaker 1: being more interested in his own political climb than her

1488
01:08:21,280 --> 01:08:23,720
Speaker 1: political climb, you know, that could be that could be

1489
01:08:23,760 --> 01:08:26,320
Speaker 1: a knock on him. But then again, you know, none

1490
01:08:26,320 --> 01:08:29,679
Speaker 1: of these All of these guys are comparatively young comparative

1491
01:08:29,720 --> 01:08:32,040
Speaker 1: to Joe Biden and Donald Trump. So I would think

1492
01:08:32,040 --> 01:08:34,800
Speaker 1: that any one of them would be have their eye

1493
01:08:34,880 --> 01:08:37,559
Speaker 1: ultimately on the presidency if they got picked for the slot.

1494
01:08:37,680 --> 01:08:41,160
Speaker 1: So the last candidate that we have on the list

1495
01:08:41,240 --> 01:08:44,080
Speaker 1: is the one senator who has been consistently named as

1496
01:08:44,120 --> 01:08:47,920
Speaker 1: one of the potential top choices. This is Arizona's Mark Kelly.

1497
01:08:48,000 --> 01:08:48,920
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to him.

1498
01:08:49,280 --> 01:08:51,479
Speaker 9: What is wrong about a woman who has been great

1499
01:08:52,080 --> 01:08:55,040
Speaker 9: to not want to you know, to be or to

1500
01:08:55,040 --> 01:08:56,120
Speaker 9: be able to terminate a pregnancy.

1501
01:08:56,200 --> 01:08:58,640
Speaker 6: Let's wrong with that? And two daughters and a granddaughter.

1502
01:09:00,040 --> 01:09:03,679
Speaker 13: Really worry about their rights if Donald Trump is elected

1503
01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:06,760
Speaker 13: again and Jamie Dams is the vice president, I mean

1504
01:09:06,760 --> 01:09:07,800
Speaker 13: that really concerns me.

1505
01:09:08,200 --> 01:09:09,760
Speaker 4: So there you get a sense of him. Again.

1506
01:09:09,840 --> 01:09:11,840
Speaker 1: He's not an electric communicator, but he does have a

1507
01:09:11,840 --> 01:09:14,680
Speaker 1: good reputation in the state of Arizona. If that's you know,

1508
01:09:14,840 --> 01:09:16,679
Speaker 1: if you think that he would bring something in terms

1509
01:09:16,680 --> 01:09:19,639
Speaker 1: of helping to deliver that state, perhaps you pick him.

1510
01:09:20,040 --> 01:09:22,160
Speaker 1: This also would be someone that Kamala Harris knows I

1511
01:09:22,240 --> 01:09:25,320
Speaker 1: think fairly well. So perhaps that's an added advantage. There

1512
01:09:25,360 --> 01:09:27,760
Speaker 1: is some reporting that this is like the guy Obama wants,

1513
01:09:27,800 --> 01:09:28,519
Speaker 1: So I don't know how.

1514
01:09:28,520 --> 01:09:29,360
Speaker 4: Much that counts for.

1515
01:09:29,560 --> 01:09:31,160
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's true, and I don't know

1516
01:09:31,360 --> 01:09:34,120
Speaker 1: how much that counts for, but it does feel like

1517
01:09:34,160 --> 01:09:36,240
Speaker 1: Democrats will kind of like fall in love with this,

1518
01:09:36,520 --> 01:09:39,720
Speaker 1: you know, astronaut hero persona with him, So I could

1519
01:09:39,720 --> 01:09:43,400
Speaker 1: see him getting picked the issue for him. Two issues

1520
01:09:43,400 --> 01:09:46,679
Speaker 1: for him. Number one the Senate seat. Look, a Democratic

1521
01:09:46,680 --> 01:09:48,880
Speaker 1: governor gets to appoint the replacement, so that gives I'm

1522
01:09:48,920 --> 01:09:51,640
Speaker 1: a good leg up in terms of re election, but

1523
01:09:51,720 --> 01:09:54,160
Speaker 1: you still are then making it a lot if you're

1524
01:09:54,600 --> 01:09:57,080
Speaker 1: that Democrats will be able to hold on to that seat.

1525
01:09:57,320 --> 01:09:59,120
Speaker 1: And the other thing is unions don't like him. He

1526
01:09:59,240 --> 01:10:03,439
Speaker 1: was basically taking screaming through this process to supporting the

1527
01:10:03,439 --> 01:10:05,040
Speaker 1: pro Act Big Red Flag.

1528
01:10:05,080 --> 01:10:05,400
Speaker 3: There.

1529
01:10:05,520 --> 01:10:09,280
Speaker 1: There were some other nominees that the Biden administration wanted

1530
01:10:09,280 --> 01:10:11,760
Speaker 1: to get through that were important to labor that he

1531
01:10:12,000 --> 01:10:15,160
Speaker 1: was skeptical or not supportive of. So he doesn't have

1532
01:10:15,200 --> 01:10:17,880
Speaker 1: a great record with labor. Maybe that's a hindrance for him.

1533
01:10:17,880 --> 01:10:19,320
Speaker 3: This is a labor thing for him. He's actually a

1534
01:10:19,320 --> 01:10:20,160
Speaker 3: big border hockey.

1535
01:10:20,200 --> 01:10:22,719
Speaker 2: He won his race by running against Biden on the border,

1536
01:10:22,760 --> 01:10:24,160
Speaker 2: which a lot of people didn't expect.

1537
01:10:24,160 --> 01:10:25,880
Speaker 3: But anyway, I mean that's not a bad thing.

1538
01:10:26,000 --> 01:10:27,840
Speaker 1: Well, I do think that's one of the things that

1539
01:10:27,880 --> 01:10:31,000
Speaker 1: the Harris the Harris people would consider as like, Okay,

1540
01:10:31,000 --> 01:10:33,599
Speaker 1: does this person help me with our weakest issue, which

1541
01:10:33,640 --> 01:10:34,160
Speaker 1: is immigration.

1542
01:10:34,360 --> 01:10:36,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that would be the only Also, look, America

1543
01:10:36,680 --> 01:10:38,280
Speaker 2: loves an astronaut. There's a reason that, you know, it's

1544
01:10:38,280 --> 01:10:40,919
Speaker 2: a very selective program. And you know how many astronaut

1545
01:10:40,960 --> 01:10:43,400
Speaker 2: politicians we'd have Bill Nelson to all these senators.

1546
01:10:43,800 --> 01:10:44,360
Speaker 3: People love it.

1547
01:10:44,360 --> 01:10:47,519
Speaker 2: It's a legacy of like the Mercury Seven programs. So

1548
01:10:47,560 --> 01:10:49,840
Speaker 2: I wouldn't put it past you know, that being a

1549
01:10:49,880 --> 01:10:52,639
Speaker 2: thing he also, you know, is you know, in terms

1550
01:10:52,680 --> 01:10:55,160
Speaker 2: of his own record and the personal story, there's some

1551
01:10:55,240 --> 01:10:58,760
Speaker 2: inspiration with with Gaby Gifford. So I think that that's

1552
01:10:58,800 --> 01:11:01,040
Speaker 2: not something I would dismount. Per se, I would simply

1553
01:11:01,040 --> 01:11:03,080
Speaker 2: not pick him because it'd be bad for the large

1554
01:11:03,120 --> 01:11:06,519
Speaker 2: d Democratic Party and I don't think Arizona is in play,

1555
01:11:06,560 --> 01:11:09,960
Speaker 2: but the border issue is one where he would lend

1556
01:11:10,040 --> 01:11:13,120
Speaker 2: her some credibility on the issue. And now let's think

1557
01:11:13,120 --> 01:11:15,960
Speaker 2: about this too, whoever she picks and going to go

1558
01:11:16,120 --> 01:11:19,320
Speaker 2: up against j D. All JD talks about these days

1559
01:11:19,400 --> 01:11:22,599
Speaker 2: on the campaign trail is immigration, So you need somebody

1560
01:11:22,640 --> 01:11:25,519
Speaker 2: who could stand toe to toe there with immigration. That said,

1561
01:11:25,560 --> 01:11:27,320
Speaker 2: how many people are based on their vote on the

1562
01:11:27,360 --> 01:11:28,280
Speaker 2: vice president debate.

1563
01:11:28,400 --> 01:11:29,599
Speaker 3: Let's be honest, it's like zero.

1564
01:11:30,080 --> 01:11:32,240
Speaker 2: So you know, these are all like hypotheticals that I'm

1565
01:11:32,320 --> 01:11:35,880
Speaker 2: not bringing up, just making the case for one that exists.

1566
01:11:35,960 --> 01:11:39,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, my overriding assumption is that whoever I

1567
01:11:39,240 --> 01:11:41,000
Speaker 1: want to be the least is probably the person they're

1568
01:11:41,000 --> 01:11:41,400
Speaker 1: gonna pick.

1569
01:11:41,560 --> 01:11:44,120
Speaker 4: So it's going to be Mark Kelly or jos Shaperil.

1570
01:11:44,160 --> 01:11:46,200
Speaker 1: And by the way, I've met Mark Kelly and I've

1571
01:11:46,240 --> 01:11:49,920
Speaker 1: met Gaby Giffords both before and after she was shot,

1572
01:11:49,960 --> 01:11:53,080
Speaker 1: and they're very kind, lovely, like on a personal level.

1573
01:11:53,240 --> 01:11:53,559
Speaker 4: People.

1574
01:11:53,800 --> 01:11:56,200
Speaker 1: It's not personal. I just you know, labor's important to me.

1575
01:11:56,240 --> 01:11:59,080
Speaker 1: Has been bad on labor, so it's not.

1576
01:11:58,439 --> 01:11:58,960
Speaker 4: Not my pick.

1577
01:11:59,080 --> 01:12:01,320
Speaker 1: But let's just we'll just quickly go through these last

1578
01:12:01,360 --> 01:12:03,120
Speaker 1: couple of elements. You can put up the next one

1579
01:12:03,160 --> 01:12:07,080
Speaker 1: on the screen. So apparently the big Union choice is

1580
01:12:07,720 --> 01:12:12,080
Speaker 1: Tim Wall's governor, as I mentioned before, of Minnesota. They

1581
01:12:12,160 --> 01:12:14,400
Speaker 1: like him, they feel comfortable with him. He was you know,

1582
01:12:14,439 --> 01:12:16,080
Speaker 1: he was a public school teacher, so he was in

1583
01:12:16,120 --> 01:12:18,479
Speaker 1: a union himself. That always helps. Has got and put

1584
01:12:18,479 --> 01:12:20,160
Speaker 1: the next one up on the screen. This we mentioned

1585
01:12:20,200 --> 01:12:22,840
Speaker 1: before the New York Times, the quiet bond Kamala, Harris

1586
01:12:22,840 --> 01:12:25,080
Speaker 1: Forde with three VP contenders. It was a little bit

1587
01:12:25,120 --> 01:12:27,439
Speaker 1: wrong in what I said earlier. Ray Cooper and Andy

1588
01:12:27,479 --> 01:12:31,920
Speaker 1: Basheer both directly overlapped with Kamala as Attorney's General. Jos

1589
01:12:31,960 --> 01:12:34,360
Speaker 1: Shapiro came into the job as she was leaving her

1590
01:12:34,400 --> 01:12:36,400
Speaker 1: post and as Trump entered the White House. But she

1591
01:12:36,520 --> 01:12:40,360
Speaker 1: may like that they share that ag background. There was

1592
01:12:40,479 --> 01:12:44,040
Speaker 1: one report that she wanted someone with quote unquote executive

1593
01:12:44,080 --> 01:12:47,040
Speaker 1: experience that would seem to indicate a governor, not Mark Kelly,

1594
01:12:47,080 --> 01:12:48,840
Speaker 1: but who knows if that's sure or not. And then

1595
01:12:48,880 --> 01:12:51,320
Speaker 1: the last thing that I mentioned before, which might be

1596
01:12:51,360 --> 01:12:53,479
Speaker 1: a point in Tim Walls's favor, is the fact that

1597
01:12:53,520 --> 01:12:56,200
Speaker 1: he really came up with this framing, the weird framing,

1598
01:12:56,439 --> 01:12:58,840
Speaker 1: which the Harris campaign has gone all in on. And

1599
01:12:58,920 --> 01:13:00,960
Speaker 1: I'm already seeing signs of there are rallies of like

1600
01:13:01,040 --> 01:13:01,799
Speaker 1: these people are.

1601
01:13:01,640 --> 01:13:02,519
Speaker 4: Weird or whatever.

1602
01:13:02,880 --> 01:13:05,160
Speaker 1: But this is a press release where they said this

1603
01:13:05,240 --> 01:13:09,120
Speaker 1: also is emblematic of the massive tone shift since the

1604
01:13:09,400 --> 01:13:11,160
Speaker 1: Biden team has become the Harris team.

1605
01:13:11,400 --> 01:13:12,519
Speaker 4: They put on this press release.

1606
01:13:12,560 --> 01:13:14,439
Speaker 1: The headline is a statement on a seventy eight year

1607
01:13:14,479 --> 01:13:17,920
Speaker 1: old Criminals Fox News appearance, and one of the talking

1608
01:13:17,920 --> 01:13:21,479
Speaker 1: points here is Trump is old and quite weird question mark.

1609
01:13:21,680 --> 01:13:24,240
Speaker 1: So you know, they really are leaning into that and

1610
01:13:24,400 --> 01:13:26,960
Speaker 1: embrace that. So, for what it's worth, that's where we are.

1611
01:13:27,120 --> 01:13:30,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, it could be a sign we will We'll see.

1612
01:13:30,920 --> 01:13:32,920
Speaker 2: That's my only thing. I'm not really going to make

1613
01:13:32,920 --> 01:13:35,240
Speaker 2: a guess. I think there's an equal chance. I would

1614
01:13:35,280 --> 01:13:37,920
Speaker 2: say relatively equal chance between Tim Waltz and Josh Shapiro.

1615
01:13:38,000 --> 01:13:40,280
Speaker 2: I would say those are the frontrunners. In my opinion.

1616
01:13:40,320 --> 01:13:42,639
Speaker 2: She could shock us by picking a Kelly or a Cooper.

1617
01:13:42,840 --> 01:13:43,240
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1618
01:13:43,439 --> 01:13:45,720
Speaker 3: I don't think sheher's in the running at all. I

1619
01:13:45,720 --> 01:13:46,280
Speaker 3: don't see it.

1620
01:13:46,360 --> 01:13:48,559
Speaker 1: Like I said, I just assume whoever I want this

1621
01:13:48,479 --> 01:13:49,880
Speaker 1: this is going to be the one that gets picked.

1622
01:13:49,920 --> 01:13:53,639
Speaker 1: So Joshapiro, congratulations.

1623
01:13:56,160 --> 01:13:57,599
Speaker 3: Now let's turn a little bit to RFK.

1624
01:13:57,720 --> 01:14:00,679
Speaker 2: There's some really interesting new reporting about how the Trump

1625
01:14:00,720 --> 01:14:04,360
Speaker 2: campaign was desperate to get a quasi endorsement from RFK

1626
01:14:04,520 --> 01:14:06,920
Speaker 2: and what the details of that meeting look like. Let's

1627
01:14:06,920 --> 01:14:09,040
Speaker 2: put this up there on the screen from Mediaite, and

1628
01:14:09,080 --> 01:14:12,320
Speaker 2: here's what they say. Basically, there was, as we know,

1629
01:14:12,520 --> 01:14:15,120
Speaker 2: that private conversation between RFK and Trump, of which the

1630
01:14:15,240 --> 01:14:19,160
Speaker 2: video some of what was released by RFK Junior's son. Well,

1631
01:14:19,280 --> 01:14:22,479
Speaker 2: it seems that behind the scenes, Donald Trump was desperate

1632
01:14:22,479 --> 01:14:25,759
Speaker 2: to get an endorsement from RFK Junior, who he believes

1633
01:14:25,800 --> 01:14:28,439
Speaker 2: is eating into his base of support. So in their

1634
01:14:28,560 --> 01:14:32,080
Speaker 2: July fifteenth meeting, Trump quote attempted to persuade Kennedy to

1635
01:14:32,200 --> 01:14:36,160
Speaker 2: endorse his campaign, citing polling, Kennedy refused. Instead, Trump and

1636
01:14:36,240 --> 01:14:39,200
Speaker 2: Kennedy came up with an idea about making a unity

1637
01:14:39,240 --> 01:14:42,120
Speaker 2: announcement in the wake of the assassination attempt. Trump was

1638
01:14:42,160 --> 01:14:44,439
Speaker 2: trying to get the endorsement from Kennedy. Kennedy was not

1639
01:14:44,600 --> 01:14:47,160
Speaker 2: keen on dropping out of the race and endorsing Trump.

1640
01:14:47,280 --> 01:14:50,400
Speaker 2: Trump's team then requested the Kennedy draft a quote Unity

1641
01:14:50,439 --> 01:14:53,519
Speaker 2: government proposal which would outline what they plan to work

1642
01:14:53,560 --> 01:14:57,519
Speaker 2: on together, including vaccines and government corruption. They requested that

1643
01:14:57,560 --> 01:15:00,240
Speaker 2: the pledge also outline what role Kennedy would look like

1644
01:15:00,360 --> 01:15:03,799
Speaker 2: should Trump become president again. Kennedy campaign sent the pledge,

1645
01:15:03,960 --> 01:15:08,080
Speaker 2: never received a response. The document says quote that there

1646
01:15:08,080 --> 01:15:10,080
Speaker 2: are many issues Trump and Kennedy do not agree on,

1647
01:15:10,240 --> 01:15:12,000
Speaker 2: but the Unity Pledge was important for the.

1648
01:15:12,000 --> 01:15:13,759
Speaker 3: Nation after the assassination attempt.

1649
01:15:13,960 --> 01:15:17,719
Speaker 2: In addition, the pledge outlined a role for Kennedy leading

1650
01:15:17,760 --> 01:15:20,439
Speaker 2: the HHS Department, which is one of the largest, I

1651
01:15:20,479 --> 01:15:24,080
Speaker 2: think the largest federal agency health and Human Services. According

1652
01:15:24,120 --> 01:15:27,280
Speaker 2: to them, Kennedy was not going to endorse Trump, but

1653
01:15:27,320 --> 01:15:30,600
Speaker 2: agreed to drafting the Unity Government Proposal pledged by the

1654
01:15:30,640 --> 01:15:34,960
Speaker 2: Trump team. Trump wanted quote something fairly desperately to make

1655
01:15:35,040 --> 01:15:37,559
Speaker 2: people think Kennedy was in support of him, but in

1656
01:15:37,640 --> 01:15:40,280
Speaker 2: lieu of not giving him an endorsement, he agreed to

1657
01:15:40,320 --> 01:15:42,680
Speaker 2: the pledge. Trump was then anxious to move forward with

1658
01:15:42,720 --> 01:15:45,000
Speaker 2: announcing the pledge before the R and C was over,

1659
01:15:45,160 --> 01:15:48,760
Speaker 2: and was texting that Monday night with urgency. Kennedy was

1660
01:15:48,800 --> 01:15:51,559
Speaker 2: prepared to do the pledge with the RNC, but then

1661
01:15:51,560 --> 01:15:53,040
Speaker 2: the conversation halted.

1662
01:15:53,120 --> 01:15:53,400
Speaker 3: Quote.

1663
01:15:53,400 --> 01:15:56,439
Speaker 2: It is unclear why the Trump campaign went dark. So

1664
01:15:56,680 --> 01:15:59,360
Speaker 2: that's some of the details of what we have there. Yeah,

1665
01:15:59,400 --> 01:16:01,719
Speaker 2: I mean, here's the thing. Trump is right, he desperately

1666
01:16:01,720 --> 01:16:04,679
Speaker 2: needs RFK to endorse him. That's basically I mean, if

1667
01:16:04,760 --> 01:16:06,400
Speaker 2: we look at the five way polling, which we'll get

1668
01:16:06,439 --> 01:16:09,000
Speaker 2: to in a little bit, he is basically costing him

1669
01:16:09,040 --> 01:16:12,400
Speaker 2: a ton of votes, especially in critical states. I would

1670
01:16:12,400 --> 01:16:15,639
Speaker 2: not be surprised if RFK Junior stays on the ballot,

1671
01:16:15,920 --> 01:16:18,880
Speaker 2: if the margin of victory is such that Trump is

1672
01:16:19,000 --> 01:16:22,479
Speaker 2: cost the votes in places like Michigan and elsewhere. But

1673
01:16:22,600 --> 01:16:24,400
Speaker 2: I mean, it's not entirely fair to say, because maybe

1674
01:16:24,400 --> 01:16:26,679
Speaker 2: those people wouldn't vote at all. But you know, there's

1675
01:16:26,720 --> 01:16:28,640
Speaker 2: an argument at least to be made that there is

1676
01:16:28,680 --> 01:16:32,000
Speaker 2: a decent chunk of RFK Junior support that if RFK Junior,

1677
01:16:32,080 --> 01:16:34,479
Speaker 2: who endorse Trump, might put him over the edge.

1678
01:16:34,560 --> 01:16:36,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, in a lot of these background states, it's.

1679
01:16:36,479 --> 01:16:40,000
Speaker 1: Very logical the two of these two having some sort

1680
01:16:40,040 --> 01:16:42,800
Speaker 1: of an alliance. On the one hand, RFK Junior's vote

1681
01:16:42,800 --> 01:16:46,639
Speaker 1: share has been diminishing, he's suffered a Listen, his entire

1682
01:16:46,760 --> 01:16:48,760
Speaker 1: energy for his campaign was like, you hate both of

1683
01:16:48,800 --> 01:16:51,639
Speaker 1: these guys, right, I'm here as an alternative, and now

1684
01:16:51,680 --> 01:16:54,160
Speaker 1: one of them is out of the race. So, you know,

1685
01:16:54,240 --> 01:16:58,040
Speaker 1: the people who were Democrats but they were unhappy with

1686
01:16:58,120 --> 01:17:00,960
Speaker 1: Joe Piden for whatever reason, including primarily that he was

1687
01:17:01,040 --> 01:17:03,320
Speaker 1: just too old, they have come back into the fold

1688
01:17:03,640 --> 01:17:06,040
Speaker 1: that has hurt him, and that has made it more

1689
01:17:06,120 --> 01:17:10,000
Speaker 1: clear that the candidate he hurts quote unquote is Trump.

1690
01:17:10,400 --> 01:17:13,040
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of logic on Trump's side wanting

1691
01:17:13,080 --> 01:17:14,760
Speaker 1: to get him out of the race, wanting to offer

1692
01:17:14,840 --> 01:17:18,320
Speaker 1: him something in his administration. So RFK Junior can continue

1693
01:17:18,320 --> 01:17:21,000
Speaker 1: to have a platform, some sort of political power, and

1694
01:17:21,040 --> 01:17:23,240
Speaker 1: you know, parlay his campaign into some sort of role

1695
01:17:23,280 --> 01:17:25,720
Speaker 1: in the Trump administration. That makes all the sense in

1696
01:17:25,760 --> 01:17:29,200
Speaker 1: the world. And then you know, for RFK Junior, it's

1697
01:17:29,479 --> 01:17:31,679
Speaker 1: the campaign is not really going that well at this point.

1698
01:17:31,720 --> 01:17:35,680
Speaker 1: The trajectory is in the wrong direction. So it's increasingly

1699
01:17:35,800 --> 01:17:37,439
Speaker 1: unlikely that you're going to be in any sort of

1700
01:17:37,439 --> 01:17:40,679
Speaker 1: position to when a single state or contest or even

1701
01:17:40,720 --> 01:17:44,360
Speaker 1: be you know, particularly consequential in a single state. So

1702
01:17:44,600 --> 01:17:47,080
Speaker 1: if you're looking for some sort of an exit ramp,

1703
01:17:47,479 --> 01:17:50,760
Speaker 1: maybe the Trump administration is smart and you're certainly not

1704
01:17:50,800 --> 01:17:53,639
Speaker 1: getting anything in a Kamala Harris administration, So that's kind

1705
01:17:53,640 --> 01:17:54,400
Speaker 1: of your only path.

1706
01:17:54,479 --> 01:17:57,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see. It really depends on what he has

1707
01:17:57,600 --> 01:18:00,000
Speaker 2: to say. So he gave an interview to CBS News.

1708
01:18:00,040 --> 01:18:02,480
Speaker 2: He was asked about this specifically. Let's take a listen.

1709
01:18:02,439 --> 01:18:05,320
Speaker 5: This video of RFK Junior on the phone with Trump

1710
01:18:05,360 --> 01:18:08,519
Speaker 5: shortly after the attempt on his life heightened the drama.

1711
01:18:09,000 --> 01:18:11,479
Speaker 6: I would love you, and I think it would be

1712
01:18:11,520 --> 01:18:13,519
Speaker 6: so good for you and so good for you.

1713
01:18:14,240 --> 01:18:17,919
Speaker 9: And were you in those meetings prepared to end your campaign,

1714
01:18:18,240 --> 01:18:21,400
Speaker 9: endorse former President Trump and accept a role in his administration.

1715
01:18:21,520 --> 01:18:24,599
Speaker 3: No, asident Trump called me a few hours after.

1716
01:18:24,960 --> 01:18:26,840
Speaker 4: Was that ever any part of the discussion those things

1717
01:18:26,880 --> 01:18:28,160
Speaker 4: I just described.

1718
01:18:28,600 --> 01:18:31,760
Speaker 1: We you know, I won't talk about it exactly what

1719
01:18:31,800 --> 01:18:34,639
Speaker 1: we discussed me because it would be a violation of trust.

1720
01:18:34,920 --> 01:18:35,880
Speaker 3: All right, So there you go.

1721
01:18:36,040 --> 01:18:38,720
Speaker 2: Basically dodges he opened the door a little bit. I mean,

1722
01:18:38,760 --> 01:18:41,760
Speaker 2: it basically confirms the report. There the Unity pledge not

1723
01:18:41,800 --> 01:18:45,519
Speaker 2: an endorsement. It really is depending now on RFK Junior

1724
01:18:45,560 --> 01:18:47,720
Speaker 2: and what he wants to accomplish. I mean, I don't

1725
01:18:47,760 --> 01:18:50,400
Speaker 2: think anybody is owed to their vote. So Trump is

1726
01:18:50,439 --> 01:18:52,599
Speaker 2: going to have to court him. And it's clear RK

1727
01:18:52,800 --> 01:18:54,439
Speaker 2: doesn't want to endorse him. So I'm going to give

1728
01:18:54,479 --> 01:18:56,639
Speaker 2: him that because at the very least he's not. He's like, look,

1729
01:18:56,680 --> 01:18:58,439
Speaker 2: I disagree with you one a lot. I have said

1730
01:18:58,560 --> 01:19:00,600
Speaker 2: very publicly there are things I do not agree with

1731
01:19:00,640 --> 01:19:02,479
Speaker 2: you on. We may have some overlapt but that doesn't

1732
01:19:02,520 --> 01:19:05,000
Speaker 2: mean I'm a diet in the role Trumper and he's like,

1733
01:19:05,080 --> 01:19:07,320
Speaker 2: so I'm gonna have to get something out of it,

1734
01:19:07,360 --> 01:19:09,800
Speaker 2: and it's clear too Trump probably doesn't want to give

1735
01:19:09,800 --> 01:19:11,720
Speaker 2: it to him. That's I mean, if you think about it,

1736
01:19:11,720 --> 01:19:14,800
Speaker 2: em bargaining terms, giving up HHS is titanic and it's

1737
01:19:14,840 --> 01:19:17,920
Speaker 2: one of the largest federal agencies. Also, RFK Junior maybe

1738
01:19:17,960 --> 01:19:19,840
Speaker 2: forgetting this, but you have to get confirmed by the

1739
01:19:19,920 --> 01:19:22,920
Speaker 2: United States Senate, and I just foresee some problems there

1740
01:19:22,920 --> 01:19:25,200
Speaker 2: with a lot of Democrats and Republicans voted for him,

1741
01:19:25,240 --> 01:19:27,240
Speaker 2: just saying that's one of the things I would be

1742
01:19:27,240 --> 01:19:30,000
Speaker 2: concerned about. Polling wise, Let's put this up there because

1743
01:19:30,040 --> 01:19:33,599
Speaker 2: this just confers why he is working so hard Trump

1744
01:19:33,760 --> 01:19:36,679
Speaker 2: is to actually get a RFK out of the race.

1745
01:19:37,040 --> 01:19:40,599
Speaker 2: In the Reuters ipsos that was recently conducted after Kamala

1746
01:19:40,920 --> 01:19:44,080
Speaker 2: replaced Biden on the ticket, it puts Kennedy at eight

1747
01:19:44,120 --> 01:19:46,759
Speaker 2: percent in the three way contest against Harris and Trump,

1748
01:19:47,040 --> 01:19:51,000
Speaker 2: down from the eleven that he scored just a week earlier. Separately,

1749
01:19:51,080 --> 01:19:53,840
Speaker 2: a Big Caravan poll of two thousand adults from July

1750
01:19:53,960 --> 01:19:56,400
Speaker 2: twenty second, again after Kamalin's out of the race puts

1751
01:19:56,439 --> 01:19:59,040
Speaker 2: Kennedy at six point seven versus the nine point two

1752
01:19:59,040 --> 01:20:01,400
Speaker 2: percent that he scored when the same question was asked

1753
01:20:01,680 --> 01:20:04,439
Speaker 2: just ten days or so before. I don't agree with

1754
01:20:04,439 --> 01:20:07,160
Speaker 2: the headline of quote wiping out the campaign. What it

1755
01:20:07,200 --> 01:20:11,559
Speaker 2: does wipe out is the disaffected Democratic support right, which,

1756
01:20:11,640 --> 01:20:13,400
Speaker 2: let's be honest, that was a large part of it.

1757
01:20:13,640 --> 01:20:17,519
Speaker 2: RFK is pro choice, like RFK is an environmentalist, like

1758
01:20:17,760 --> 01:20:22,000
Speaker 2: La Hollywood lib in many respects. I can personally see

1759
01:20:22,320 --> 01:20:25,840
Speaker 2: many celebrities and people like Zachary Levi and others who

1760
01:20:25,960 --> 01:20:28,519
Speaker 2: endorse him specifically because they are liberal, but they don't

1761
01:20:28,560 --> 01:20:30,880
Speaker 2: like Trump, and that is that. I mean, I'm not

1762
01:20:30,920 --> 01:20:32,880
Speaker 2: going to say it's a majority, but it's some people.

1763
01:20:33,240 --> 01:20:36,320
Speaker 2: And so for Kamma up, there's enough there for some

1764
01:20:36,479 --> 01:20:38,600
Speaker 2: people that I think that confers it. What is it

1765
01:20:38,640 --> 01:20:41,479
Speaker 2: three four five percent or something of people bleeding away,

1766
01:20:41,640 --> 01:20:44,240
Speaker 2: But that's enough if you can win back that but

1767
01:20:44,360 --> 01:20:48,240
Speaker 2: continue to keep that disaffected Trump voter or Republican leaning

1768
01:20:48,320 --> 01:20:51,719
Speaker 2: voter away from Trump. That's a bad situation for Trump

1769
01:20:51,760 --> 01:20:53,280
Speaker 2: and that's why he should be desperate.

1770
01:20:53,280 --> 01:20:54,160
Speaker 3: I really think he should.

1771
01:20:54,280 --> 01:20:57,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, it has made it much more clear that, you know,

1772
01:20:57,560 --> 01:21:00,360
Speaker 1: RFK Junior, because it was it would go pull polls

1773
01:21:00,400 --> 01:21:02,479
Speaker 1: some holes, it would seem like it was worse for

1774
01:21:02,479 --> 01:21:04,559
Speaker 1: Biden having an RFK Junior in the race, other ones

1775
01:21:04,600 --> 01:21:05,400
Speaker 1: it was worse for Trump.

1776
01:21:05,439 --> 01:21:07,200
Speaker 4: It really was pretty evenly split.

1777
01:21:07,760 --> 01:21:10,880
Speaker 1: Now it's it's quite clear that it's more of a

1778
01:21:10,880 --> 01:21:13,360
Speaker 1: liability for Trump to keep him in the race. But

1779
01:21:13,600 --> 01:21:15,720
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know what sort of I'm just

1780
01:21:16,160 --> 01:21:18,640
Speaker 1: all I can say is there is some logic to

1781
01:21:18,680 --> 01:21:21,960
Speaker 1: the idea of RFK Junior from his perspective dropping out

1782
01:21:22,000 --> 01:21:24,200
Speaker 1: and endorsing Trump and getting something for it. There is

1783
01:21:24,280 --> 01:21:26,400
Speaker 1: definitely logic on the Trump side to push for that

1784
01:21:26,439 --> 01:21:28,479
Speaker 1: and want that. We know RFK Junior has at this

1785
01:21:28,520 --> 01:21:34,360
Speaker 1: point robuffed those you know, those inquiries, those requests up to.

1786
01:21:34,360 --> 01:21:36,040
Speaker 4: This point, and I don't know what he's weighing.

1787
01:21:36,080 --> 01:21:38,400
Speaker 1: You know, he's made a lot of promises to his

1788
01:21:38,400 --> 01:21:41,519
Speaker 1: supporters that they are you know, supporting a campaign that

1789
01:21:41,640 --> 01:21:43,960
Speaker 1: is an opposition to Trump, that is an opposition to

1790
01:21:44,000 --> 01:21:47,320
Speaker 1: both of the major political parties. He also does, as

1791
01:21:47,320 --> 01:21:50,240
Speaker 1: you say, come out of this like liberal Hollywood ecosystem

1792
01:21:50,320 --> 01:21:53,440
Speaker 1: and those people really hate Donald Trump. So if you

1793
01:21:53,439 --> 01:21:55,439
Speaker 1: you know, it's one thing to be sort of like,

1794
01:21:55,560 --> 01:21:58,240
Speaker 1: you know, low key maybe hurting the Democratic Party ticket

1795
01:21:58,360 --> 01:22:00,519
Speaker 1: or whatever critic low of Biden. It's an thing to

1796
01:22:00,560 --> 01:22:05,519
Speaker 1: be affirmatively in a Trump administration. And maybe he's already

1797
01:22:05,960 --> 01:22:09,720
Speaker 1: so estranged from the liberal Hollywood circle or whatever that

1798
01:22:09,760 --> 01:22:11,880
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. But maybe it does. Maybe it's an

1799
01:22:11,880 --> 01:22:13,920
Speaker 1: issue for his wife. I genuinely don't know what the

1800
01:22:13,960 --> 01:22:16,240
Speaker 1: calculus is enough to make a prediction. All I can

1801
01:22:16,240 --> 01:22:19,360
Speaker 1: say is that there is a logic to this. You know,

1802
01:22:19,400 --> 01:22:21,200
Speaker 1: the entreaties being made by the Trump.

1803
01:22:21,000 --> 01:22:24,240
Speaker 2: People, Well, the Trump people should be desperate, and in

1804
01:22:24,280 --> 01:22:26,559
Speaker 2: many ways it's their own fault because they helped try

1805
01:22:26,560 --> 01:22:28,400
Speaker 2: to prop him up when he was running as Biden,

1806
01:22:28,479 --> 01:22:30,439
Speaker 2: and then a lot of Republicans were like, hey, I

1807
01:22:30,479 --> 01:22:31,680
Speaker 2: like this guy, And now they're like, well a whole

1808
01:22:31,720 --> 01:22:32,920
Speaker 2: lot a second, No, we didn't mean.

1809
01:22:32,840 --> 01:22:33,280
Speaker 3: It that way.

1810
01:22:33,640 --> 01:22:35,840
Speaker 2: Let's put this up there on the screen, just from

1811
01:22:35,920 --> 01:22:38,320
Speaker 2: RFK himself. There was previously a false tweet that said

1812
01:22:38,320 --> 01:22:39,840
Speaker 2: he was going to drop out of the race, and

1813
01:22:39,920 --> 01:22:41,840
Speaker 2: he responded saying I'm in it to win it. I

1814
01:22:41,920 --> 01:22:44,840
Speaker 2: lead in popularity and independence are now the largest voting block.

1815
01:22:45,080 --> 01:22:47,920
Speaker 2: Momentum is shifting in my favor as I close in

1816
01:22:47,960 --> 01:22:50,800
Speaker 2: on ballot access in all fifty states. I look forward

1817
01:22:50,840 --> 01:22:54,000
Speaker 2: to challenging President Trump and the DNC nominee at the

1818
01:22:54,040 --> 01:22:58,080
Speaker 2: next debate hashtag America strong. Now very unlikely that ABC

1819
01:22:58,120 --> 01:23:00,000
Speaker 2: will let Actually we don't really.

1820
01:22:59,920 --> 01:23:01,320
Speaker 3: Know what's going on with that debate.

1821
01:23:01,479 --> 01:23:04,320
Speaker 2: Trump currently basically says he won't he won't debate her

1822
01:23:04,400 --> 01:23:07,000
Speaker 2: until she's officially the Democratic nominee, So I guess we'll

1823
01:23:07,040 --> 01:23:10,559
Speaker 2: wait until afterwards. This is where too, I'm a little

1824
01:23:10,560 --> 01:23:11,879
Speaker 2: bit upset about the process.

1825
01:23:12,000 --> 01:23:14,400
Speaker 3: Where we look. We previously had three debates, we were

1826
01:23:14,400 --> 01:23:15,000
Speaker 3: going to get two.

1827
01:23:15,120 --> 01:23:17,160
Speaker 2: Well Biden and Trump had one, so now there's only

1828
01:23:17,240 --> 01:23:19,200
Speaker 2: one left on the schedule. We can't just have one

1829
01:23:19,240 --> 01:23:22,559
Speaker 2: debate with this press with a new presidential candidate. At

1830
01:23:22,560 --> 01:23:24,679
Speaker 2: a minimum, I think she should do three. It would

1831
01:23:24,720 --> 01:23:27,439
Speaker 2: be better if she did like five. But she's not stupid,

1832
01:23:27,680 --> 01:23:27,960
Speaker 2: you know.

1833
01:23:28,240 --> 01:23:30,160
Speaker 1: Well Trump At this point, Trump's the one who's saying

1834
01:23:30,160 --> 01:23:31,960
Speaker 1: I may not debate you at all. So well, he's

1835
01:23:32,000 --> 01:23:33,760
Speaker 1: saying at that point it's more of a problem on

1836
01:23:33,800 --> 01:23:34,160
Speaker 1: his side.

1837
01:23:34,160 --> 01:23:35,519
Speaker 2: What did is tweet say? It was something like I

1838
01:23:35,520 --> 01:23:37,479
Speaker 2: won't debate her until I know she's the nominee. I

1839
01:23:37,520 --> 01:23:39,439
Speaker 2: think I think that's what it was. He's also trying

1840
01:23:39,479 --> 01:23:41,920
Speaker 2: to get her not to just do the ABC News debate.

1841
01:23:41,960 --> 01:23:44,040
Speaker 2: He wants to do a Fox News debate or and

1842
01:23:44,240 --> 01:23:47,080
Speaker 2: or both. He didn't officially resign himself from ABC, but

1843
01:23:47,120 --> 01:23:48,840
Speaker 2: I think they need to do a lot more debates

1844
01:23:48,880 --> 01:23:51,280
Speaker 2: because it's really not fair to the American people to

1845
01:23:51,320 --> 01:23:54,080
Speaker 2: only everyone, because with Kamala, it's not like Biden where

1846
01:23:54,120 --> 01:23:56,040
Speaker 2: were you know, he just falls apart because he's literally

1847
01:23:56,080 --> 01:24:00,200
Speaker 2: like a walking corpse. I think most people, most politicians

1848
01:24:00,240 --> 01:24:02,600
Speaker 2: of a C minus standard, can keep it together for

1849
01:24:02,680 --> 01:24:05,280
Speaker 2: ninety minutes, but two hundred and seventy minutes, well, that's

1850
01:24:05,280 --> 01:24:07,240
Speaker 2: where it gets a little bit interesting. And that's where

1851
01:24:07,240 --> 01:24:09,280
Speaker 2: we might see some breakage and think, and this is

1852
01:24:09,280 --> 01:24:11,519
Speaker 2: a risk for Trump too, But we need to see

1853
01:24:11,560 --> 01:24:14,080
Speaker 2: a lot more than just one because that is straight

1854
01:24:14,160 --> 01:24:15,400
Speaker 2: up not fair at all.

1855
01:24:15,320 --> 01:24:17,680
Speaker 1: To the absolutely. I mean, yeah, she was put in

1856
01:24:17,680 --> 01:24:19,560
Speaker 1: place through a non democratic.

1857
01:24:19,080 --> 01:24:21,120
Speaker 3: Exactly like that in sociology event.

1858
01:24:20,960 --> 01:24:24,920
Speaker 1: Right, So you know, the very least we deserve is

1859
01:24:25,280 --> 01:24:29,680
Speaker 1: some transparency, some ability to evaluate the two of them

1860
01:24:29,960 --> 01:24:34,080
Speaker 1: side by side, contrasting their visions, their you know, communications

1861
01:24:34,080 --> 01:24:36,840
Speaker 1: skills and political aptitude, which is an important part of

1862
01:24:36,840 --> 01:24:39,320
Speaker 1: the presidency. Right, the theater is an important part of

1863
01:24:39,360 --> 01:24:42,639
Speaker 1: the presidency. There is no doubt that that we deserve

1864
01:24:42,760 --> 01:24:44,719
Speaker 1: all of that. So we'll see. But there is also

1865
01:24:44,760 --> 01:24:46,360
Speaker 1: no doubt that there's no chance they're going to let

1866
01:24:46,439 --> 01:24:49,160
Speaker 1: RFK Junior on that stage, which is wrong, which is

1867
01:24:50,280 --> 01:24:55,040
Speaker 1: absolutely wrong as well and again anti democratic. But yeah,

1868
01:24:55,080 --> 01:24:57,280
Speaker 1: we'll see where this goes with with r of K Junior.

1869
01:24:57,320 --> 01:24:58,840
Speaker 1: I could I could see it going any number. I

1870
01:24:58,840 --> 01:25:02,840
Speaker 1: could see him hanging in there for whatever reasons. You know,

1871
01:25:03,160 --> 01:25:05,080
Speaker 1: he's running a campaign. He wants to stay until the end.

1872
01:25:05,120 --> 01:25:07,439
Speaker 1: He wants to see how it goes. Maybe he's seeing

1873
01:25:07,479 --> 01:25:10,920
Speaker 1: some movement in the polls internally that we're not seeing publicly. Whatever,

1874
01:25:11,400 --> 01:25:13,320
Speaker 1: Maybe has some theory of the case that we're not

1875
01:25:13,360 --> 01:25:15,479
Speaker 1: privy to. Or he just wants to keep his promise

1876
01:25:15,520 --> 01:25:19,120
Speaker 1: to oppose both of these major party nominees.

1877
01:25:19,320 --> 01:25:20,360
Speaker 4: So we'll see where it goes.

1878
01:25:20,400 --> 01:25:22,759
Speaker 2: I hope he stays in actually because I want people

1879
01:25:22,760 --> 01:25:25,080
Speaker 2: to prove that there is a quote unquote viable path

1880
01:25:25,120 --> 01:25:28,080
Speaker 2: to at least winning some x amount of a third party.

1881
01:25:28,160 --> 01:25:29,800
Speaker 2: And if we look at the history of third parties

1882
01:25:29,800 --> 01:25:32,000
Speaker 2: in the past, it's very rare that they just come

1883
01:25:32,760 --> 01:25:35,479
Speaker 2: out into existence and win. That's not how it works.

1884
01:25:35,760 --> 01:25:38,479
Speaker 2: They win ten percent. I mean, look at Europe for example,

1885
01:25:38,600 --> 01:25:40,920
Speaker 2: you have these tiny little parties. They win two seats,

1886
01:25:41,000 --> 01:25:43,479
Speaker 2: they prosecute a case, then they win twenty. Then next thing,

1887
01:25:43,520 --> 01:25:45,839
Speaker 2: you know, they win fifty. Next thing you know, they're

1888
01:25:45,880 --> 01:25:48,160
Speaker 2: you know, the number two coalition in the French Parliament.

1889
01:25:48,280 --> 01:25:50,240
Speaker 2: That's how it should work. Yeah, and that's one of

1890
01:25:50,240 --> 01:25:54,120
Speaker 2: those where we can prove viability through a slow process

1891
01:25:54,680 --> 01:25:57,000
Speaker 2: through democracy. And so anyway, that's part of the reason

1892
01:25:57,040 --> 01:25:59,280
Speaker 2: where if you do actually want a chance to break it, doopoly,

1893
01:25:59,400 --> 01:25:59,960
Speaker 2: that would be the case.

1894
01:26:00,640 --> 01:26:03,040
Speaker 4: Yes, and we need rank choice vote to help make

1895
01:26:03,040 --> 01:26:03,759
Speaker 4: that a reality.

1896
01:26:03,800 --> 01:26:05,479
Speaker 2: And then he actually, I mean imagine how much he

1897
01:26:05,520 --> 01:26:08,200
Speaker 2: could win in rank choice scenario. That would be crazy

1898
01:26:08,240 --> 01:26:11,000
Speaker 2: actually if you consider especially in swing states and others.

1899
01:26:11,000 --> 01:26:12,400
Speaker 3: But yeah, anyway, that's never gonna hurt.

1900
01:26:12,640 --> 01:26:13,719
Speaker 4: A long way from that one.

1901
01:26:14,080 --> 01:26:16,160
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the latest revelations with

1902
01:26:16,200 --> 01:26:19,799
Speaker 1: regard to the massive security failures that allowed this horrific

1903
01:26:19,800 --> 01:26:21,479
Speaker 1: attack on Donald Trump to go forward.

1904
01:26:21,520 --> 01:26:23,400
Speaker 4: Let's put this up on the screen. We're getting more.

1905
01:26:23,280 --> 01:26:27,200
Speaker 1: Details about failed communications on the day of so the

1906
01:26:27,240 --> 01:26:31,040
Speaker 1: Trump's Secret Service team is complaining that they were not

1907
01:26:31,320 --> 01:26:36,320
Speaker 1: told of suspicious person reports before the shooting. Now, this

1908
01:26:36,479 --> 01:26:40,599
Speaker 1: is a Washington Post report from Josh Dassy and Carol Lennig.

1909
01:26:40,760 --> 01:26:43,680
Speaker 1: Carol always has fantastic sources within the secrets ereves. I

1910
01:26:43,680 --> 01:26:45,080
Speaker 1: always want to read what she has to say with

1911
01:26:45,120 --> 01:26:47,400
Speaker 1: regard to at least their narrative. What's going on the

1912
01:26:47,439 --> 01:26:49,800
Speaker 1: subhead here, as members of the former president Secret Service

1913
01:26:49,840 --> 01:26:52,360
Speaker 1: detail and a top advisors have said they were not

1914
01:26:52,560 --> 01:26:56,599
Speaker 1: informed of warnings that were circulating before shooting at the

1915
01:26:56,880 --> 01:27:01,120
Speaker 1: July thirteenth rally, according to people familiar with the concerns,

1916
01:27:01,280 --> 01:27:03,800
Speaker 1: So they go through the TikTok here they talk about how,

1917
01:27:03,800 --> 01:27:07,639
Speaker 1: approximately twenty to twenty five minutes before Thomas Matthew Crooks

1918
01:27:07,680 --> 01:27:11,000
Speaker 1: shot at the former president, local counter snipers noticed him

1919
01:27:11,000 --> 01:27:14,240
Speaker 1: behaving strangely. They sent his photograph to a command center

1920
01:27:14,280 --> 01:27:16,840
Speaker 1: staffed by state troopers and Secret Service agents. The head

1921
01:27:16,840 --> 01:27:20,200
Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania State Police told a congressional committee Tuesday. Members

1922
01:27:20,200 --> 01:27:22,400
Speaker 1: of the Secret Service detail that protects Trump and was

1923
01:27:22,439 --> 01:27:25,840
Speaker 1: with him backstage have complained to Confidence and others inside

1924
01:27:25,840 --> 01:27:30,320
Speaker 1: the agency they were never made aware of that warning

1925
01:27:30,560 --> 01:27:34,320
Speaker 1: about a suspicious person because remember he was spotted with

1926
01:27:34,520 --> 01:27:39,639
Speaker 1: a rangefinder attempting to enter the premises, and they were

1927
01:27:39,680 --> 01:27:42,639
Speaker 1: never They were never informed of that, and they were

1928
01:27:42,680 --> 01:27:46,680
Speaker 1: also never informed that the team on the ground there

1929
01:27:46,840 --> 01:27:49,479
Speaker 1: lost sight of him and did not know where he went.

1930
01:27:50,080 --> 01:27:52,840
Speaker 1: They said they were not aware local counter snipers lost track,

1931
01:27:52,920 --> 01:27:55,559
Speaker 1: or that another local officer hoisted up to the roof

1932
01:27:55,600 --> 01:27:58,240
Speaker 1: of a building just outside the rally site security perimeter

1933
01:27:58,320 --> 01:28:00,400
Speaker 1: saw crooks perch there with a gun.

1934
01:28:01,040 --> 01:28:02,360
Speaker 4: This was also interesting to me.

1935
01:28:02,439 --> 01:28:05,880
Speaker 1: They say these type of communication breakdowns because of the

1936
01:28:05,920 --> 01:28:09,599
Speaker 1: different radio frequencies that Secret Service teams use while working together,

1937
01:28:09,680 --> 01:28:12,680
Speaker 1: and also technical failures have figured into some of the

1938
01:28:12,720 --> 01:28:15,320
Speaker 1: agency's other significant security lapses.

1939
01:28:15,520 --> 01:28:16,559
Speaker 4: So I don't know if you guys.

1940
01:28:16,360 --> 01:28:18,840
Speaker 1: Remember this, but when a gunman began shooting at the

1941
01:28:18,920 --> 01:28:22,760
Speaker 1: White House on a night in November twenty eleven when

1942
01:28:23,040 --> 01:28:26,240
Speaker 1: President Barack Obama's daughter Sasha was at home with her grandma,

1943
01:28:26,680 --> 01:28:30,080
Speaker 1: an agent protecting Sasha did not know about the shooter

1944
01:28:30,200 --> 01:28:33,920
Speaker 1: for several minutes because the agent used a different radio

1945
01:28:33,960 --> 01:28:37,200
Speaker 1: frequency than officers and agents station at the White House,

1946
01:28:37,240 --> 01:28:40,280
Speaker 1: and no one had alerted him to the threat outside.

1947
01:28:40,439 --> 01:28:44,439
Speaker 1: That is crazy and what's even crazier is that here

1948
01:28:44,479 --> 01:28:47,599
Speaker 1: we are, well more than a decade later, and their

1949
01:28:47,600 --> 01:28:50,519
Speaker 1: complaining saga here about the very same problem.

1950
01:28:50,720 --> 01:28:53,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, what we learn is that this is an incompetent agency.

1951
01:28:54,040 --> 01:28:57,559
Speaker 2: It's basically been evident now for a decade plus. It

1952
01:28:57,680 --> 01:29:02,320
Speaker 2: took the most incompetent tonight or attempted assassin of all

1953
01:29:02,400 --> 01:29:04,800
Speaker 2: time to basically just prove all of that in a

1954
01:29:04,840 --> 01:29:08,760
Speaker 2: single event that went wrong. And the fact is is

1955
01:29:08,800 --> 01:29:12,280
Speaker 2: that we still don't have enough of an answer because

1956
01:29:12,400 --> 01:29:14,280
Speaker 2: one of the things that we knew immediately was that

1957
01:29:14,320 --> 01:29:16,240
Speaker 2: this was not a single security failure. It was a

1958
01:29:16,280 --> 01:29:19,640
Speaker 2: confluence of terrible events. And what we're learning now is

1959
01:29:19,680 --> 01:29:21,880
Speaker 2: that all of the things that have been bubbling beneath

1960
01:29:21,880 --> 01:29:24,280
Speaker 2: the surface, the petition amongst agents saying that there was

1961
01:29:24,280 --> 01:29:27,280
Speaker 2: on professionalism. Here we know about the decade long problem

1962
01:29:27,520 --> 01:29:30,479
Speaker 2: with respect to communications. Now we see the Secret Service

1963
01:29:30,520 --> 01:29:34,000
Speaker 2: director who barely even wanted to resign. What we're seeing

1964
01:29:34,200 --> 01:29:39,160
Speaker 2: is that these institutions and agencies are almost more incompetent

1965
01:29:39,160 --> 01:29:42,800
Speaker 2: than you could have ever presumed, and that this is revealing,

1966
01:29:43,560 --> 01:29:45,479
Speaker 2: especially video and other we're about to show from the

1967
01:29:45,479 --> 01:29:48,639
Speaker 2: incident that the closeness call of all of this, it's

1968
01:29:48,680 --> 01:29:50,800
Speaker 2: only a miracle that something like this didn't happen five

1969
01:29:50,880 --> 01:29:52,479
Speaker 2: years earlier or something like that.

1970
01:29:52,560 --> 01:29:55,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if this was a trained professional, be over,

1971
01:29:55,920 --> 01:29:58,080
Speaker 1: game over. This was a twenty year old who got

1972
01:29:58,160 --> 01:30:00,240
Speaker 1: picked off as the high school rifle team as he

1973
01:30:00,320 --> 01:30:03,200
Speaker 1: was such a bad marson. But to your point, Benny

1974
01:30:03,240 --> 01:30:04,439
Speaker 1: Johnson went to.

1975
01:30:04,280 --> 01:30:09,280
Speaker 7: The location, braved the sloped roof, yes, the dangerous sloped roof,

1976
01:30:10,000 --> 01:30:15,639
Speaker 7: just to demonstrate how close this position was to Donald Trump.

1977
01:30:15,760 --> 01:30:17,559
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to a little bit of video

1978
01:30:17,640 --> 01:30:18,400
Speaker 4: that he shot.

1979
01:30:18,560 --> 01:30:24,280
Speaker 13: This is the trail of blood from Thomas Crooks still

1980
01:30:24,400 --> 01:30:32,400
Speaker 13: visible on the building where the assassin was able to

1981
01:30:32,479 --> 01:30:40,880
Speaker 13: shoot directly at President Trump from this exact position. You

1982
01:30:40,920 --> 01:30:44,080
Speaker 13: can see right there in the field that's where President

1983
01:30:44,080 --> 01:30:50,479
Speaker 13: Trump is. I'm just on iPhone magnification. This is how

1984
01:30:51,040 --> 01:30:56,559
Speaker 13: close the president was. That is where the Secret Service

1985
01:30:56,600 --> 01:31:04,640
Speaker 13: sniper team was, and this is where no one was,

1986
01:31:07,320 --> 01:31:11,519
Speaker 13: or maybe someone was, but no one law enforcement wild.

1987
01:31:11,640 --> 01:31:13,640
Speaker 2: That's very instructive because you could see it's like a

1988
01:31:13,720 --> 01:31:15,920
Speaker 2: higher position up of the water tower, being on the

1989
01:31:16,400 --> 01:31:19,360
Speaker 2: dangerous slope roof where nobody was supposed to be. How

1990
01:31:19,400 --> 01:31:21,960
Speaker 2: far people away, and yeah, I fhone magnification is a

1991
01:31:22,000 --> 01:31:25,000
Speaker 2: good tell because you're like, wow, it's that close, literally

1992
01:31:25,080 --> 01:31:27,439
Speaker 2: just being able to zoom in like three times and

1993
01:31:27,479 --> 01:31:29,439
Speaker 2: you could see that where the guy is standing, and

1994
01:31:29,520 --> 01:31:32,360
Speaker 2: you also see the clear vantage point of where the

1995
01:31:32,360 --> 01:31:36,240
Speaker 2: sniper was, the attempted assassin, and then just the failure

1996
01:31:36,520 --> 01:31:38,760
Speaker 2: both of the law enforcement officials who were inside the

1997
01:31:38,760 --> 01:31:40,640
Speaker 2: building at the time, and then the lack of the

1998
01:31:40,680 --> 01:31:42,920
Speaker 2: perimeter that was set up. So the whole thing is

1999
01:31:42,920 --> 01:31:46,439
Speaker 2: still remains absolutely nuts. But as we learn more about

2000
01:31:46,439 --> 01:31:49,040
Speaker 2: the communications failure in others, the lack of coordination with

2001
01:31:49,080 --> 01:31:50,559
Speaker 2: law enforcement, it all makes sense.

2002
01:31:50,640 --> 01:31:50,880
Speaker 4: Yeah.

2003
01:31:51,040 --> 01:31:53,320
Speaker 1: No, you know, Kyle has gotten me into golf, so

2004
01:31:53,360 --> 01:31:55,600
Speaker 1: it's become very familiar with your like one hundred and

2005
01:31:55,640 --> 01:31:58,960
Speaker 1: fifty yards looks like and it is really not that far.

2006
01:31:59,200 --> 01:32:01,840
Speaker 1: So this was one of the questions AOC asked in

2007
01:32:01,960 --> 01:32:05,360
Speaker 1: the hearing when everyone was going after the Secret Service director,

2008
01:32:05,400 --> 01:32:07,880
Speaker 1: and then she resigned shortly thereafter because it was clear

2009
01:32:08,479 --> 01:32:11,360
Speaker 1: Democrat Republicans didn't matter. They were all horrified by the

2010
01:32:11,400 --> 01:32:15,840
Speaker 1: total incompetence and manifest failures and stonewalling of any of

2011
01:32:15,920 --> 01:32:18,960
Speaker 1: these questions, and so AOC says Hey, this is one

2012
01:32:19,000 --> 01:32:22,040
Speaker 1: of the most popular guns in America. Why wasn't the

2013
01:32:22,080 --> 01:32:26,040
Speaker 1: perimeter inclusive of this range which is so close? She

2014
01:32:26,080 --> 01:32:30,400
Speaker 1: wouldn't answer, couldn't answer, didn't have an answer. Just absolutely astonishing.

2015
01:32:30,479 --> 01:32:35,120
Speaker 1: And so to your point, the local swat team from Butler, Pennsylvania,

2016
01:32:35,960 --> 01:32:39,200
Speaker 1: they were interviewed and they claim, Now, I do want

2017
01:32:39,240 --> 01:32:40,800
Speaker 1: to point out there is a bit of a like,

2018
01:32:41,479 --> 01:32:43,519
Speaker 1: you know, pointing fingers between the Super Service and the

2019
01:32:43,520 --> 01:32:45,280
Speaker 1: local teams and whatever was that's part of the jockeying

2020
01:32:45,360 --> 01:32:47,120
Speaker 1: that's going on and going on in the Washington Post

2021
01:32:47,240 --> 01:32:50,200
Speaker 1: is going on with these comments as well. In my opinion,

2022
01:32:50,240 --> 01:32:52,599
Speaker 1: the failures can be manifest across the board, across all

2023
01:32:52,640 --> 01:32:55,320
Speaker 1: of these teams. But the local swat team says, listen,

2024
01:32:55,360 --> 01:32:57,920
Speaker 1: we were supposed to meet with the Secret Service before

2025
01:32:58,000 --> 01:33:00,920
Speaker 1: this rally, and they never met with us. We had

2026
01:33:00,960 --> 01:33:03,840
Speaker 1: no communication with them whatsoever. Let's take a listen to that.

2027
01:33:04,160 --> 01:33:06,519
Speaker 14: We were supposed to get a face to face briefing

2028
01:33:06,600 --> 01:33:10,120
Speaker 14: with the Secret Service snipers whenever they arrived, and that

2029
01:33:10,200 --> 01:33:14,320
Speaker 14: never happened. So I think that that was probably a

2030
01:33:14,360 --> 01:33:17,400
Speaker 14: pivotal point where I started thinking things were wrong because

2031
01:33:18,080 --> 01:33:20,080
Speaker 14: that never happened. And we had no communication with the

2032
01:33:20,120 --> 01:33:20,719
Speaker 14: Secret Service.

2033
01:33:21,160 --> 01:33:24,160
Speaker 13: You had no communication with the Secret Service at all

2034
01:33:24,240 --> 01:33:25,520
Speaker 13: on that Saturday.

2035
01:33:25,479 --> 01:33:28,080
Speaker 14: Not until after the shooting, and by then it was

2036
01:33:28,160 --> 01:33:28,519
Speaker 14: too late.

2037
01:33:28,920 --> 01:33:32,280
Speaker 1: So apparently it's common for the Secret Service to utilize

2038
01:33:32,280 --> 01:33:36,879
Speaker 1: local law enforcement resources to bolster their protection, their response, whatever.

2039
01:33:37,120 --> 01:33:39,920
Speaker 1: But you would certainly assume that since this was a

2040
01:33:39,920 --> 01:33:42,960
Speaker 1: common thing, they would have a common protocol in terms

2041
01:33:43,040 --> 01:33:46,479
Speaker 1: of integrating their communications and really being in touch about

2042
01:33:46,520 --> 01:33:49,800
Speaker 1: the plan. And that apparently didn't happen here whatsoever.

2043
01:33:50,479 --> 01:33:53,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, local, like you said, let's be honest too, there

2044
01:33:53,120 --> 01:33:55,200
Speaker 2: is some beef because some people said that the local

2045
01:33:55,240 --> 01:33:57,840
Speaker 2: cops that confronted him and then they ducked away and

2046
01:33:57,960 --> 01:33:58,679
Speaker 2: the great.

2047
01:34:00,120 --> 01:34:01,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's be real.

2048
01:34:01,400 --> 01:34:04,519
Speaker 2: But at the same time, blaming the local cops is

2049
01:34:04,560 --> 01:34:08,040
Speaker 2: not fair here because they didn't have the overall mission

2050
01:34:08,040 --> 01:34:08,760
Speaker 2: in the jurisdiction.

2051
01:34:08,840 --> 01:34:10,160
Speaker 4: They're not the sir Service.

2052
01:34:10,280 --> 01:34:12,760
Speaker 2: Their job is just do whatever they're told. So they

2053
01:34:12,800 --> 01:34:14,920
Speaker 2: show up and the Secret Services like get on that rooftop.

2054
01:34:14,920 --> 01:34:16,680
Speaker 2: They're like cool, got it, you know, stand here and

2055
01:34:16,680 --> 01:34:18,599
Speaker 2: make sure that people nobody comes in with a gun. Okay,

2056
01:34:18,800 --> 01:34:21,920
Speaker 2: but they're not the ones with anti drone jamming technology

2057
01:34:21,920 --> 01:34:23,240
Speaker 2: and they're not supposed to let a guy in with

2058
01:34:23,280 --> 01:34:27,280
Speaker 2: a range finder and having counter sniper teams who are

2059
01:34:27,320 --> 01:34:31,040
Speaker 2: supposed to do scouting missions beforehand, and denying resources.

2060
01:34:31,200 --> 01:34:34,040
Speaker 3: That's their job. They're the ones who are ultimately in control.

2061
01:34:34,080 --> 01:34:36,320
Speaker 2: So I still think even if there is maybe some

2062
01:34:36,400 --> 01:34:39,160
Speaker 2: culpability that the local cops here are being done dirty

2063
01:34:39,400 --> 01:34:41,200
Speaker 2: in that they never should have been in a position

2064
01:34:41,439 --> 01:34:43,719
Speaker 2: where they don't even know that nobody's on the rooftop

2065
01:34:44,000 --> 01:34:44,360
Speaker 2: or anything.

2066
01:34:44,360 --> 01:34:45,840
Speaker 3: They're just supposed to follow orders.

2067
01:34:45,840 --> 01:34:48,040
Speaker 2: They're not the ones who are in control, so you know,

2068
01:34:48,080 --> 01:34:50,880
Speaker 2: the responsibility falls on command, and that's the Secret Service director,

2069
01:34:51,040 --> 01:34:52,400
Speaker 2: the head of the detail, et cetera.

2070
01:34:52,439 --> 01:34:53,360
Speaker 3: All those people need to go.

2071
01:34:53,479 --> 01:34:55,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's right, and you know, yes, the Secret

2072
01:34:55,880 --> 01:34:58,439
Speaker 1: Service director has resigned. I don't think anyone should be

2073
01:34:58,479 --> 01:35:00,519
Speaker 1: comforted that the problems here have been so because, as

2074
01:35:00,560 --> 01:35:03,160
Speaker 1: I just mentioned, you know, these issues with communications, et cetera.

2075
01:35:03,240 --> 01:35:06,479
Speaker 1: This goes back to twenty eleven. So there are some

2076
01:35:06,479 --> 01:35:10,559
Speaker 1: some deep incompetence failures here in terms of Secret Service.

2077
01:35:10,640 --> 01:35:12,840
Speaker 1: And just one last thing that I'll flag again that

2078
01:35:12,920 --> 01:35:15,840
Speaker 1: Ken Clippenstein was mentioning he also has, you know, really

2079
01:35:15,840 --> 01:35:18,480
Speaker 1: fantastic sources and great knowledge of these agencies.

2080
01:35:18,680 --> 01:35:20,640
Speaker 4: You know, all the push is going to be all right.

2081
01:35:20,680 --> 01:35:23,639
Speaker 1: Now, they need more resources, they need more money into

2082
01:35:23,680 --> 01:35:26,639
Speaker 1: their budget. And it's not that they need more money,

2083
01:35:26,720 --> 01:35:29,519
Speaker 1: it's that they need to actually focus on the mission

2084
01:35:29,560 --> 01:35:32,160
Speaker 1: at hand rather than get getting having that money spread

2085
01:35:32,160 --> 01:35:34,840
Speaker 1: in a million different directions that many none of us

2086
01:35:34,840 --> 01:35:37,280
Speaker 1: have ever heard of before, that the Secret Service.

2087
01:35:37,080 --> 01:35:38,680
Speaker 4: Is doing that they really shouldn't be doing.

2088
01:35:38,760 --> 01:35:41,680
Speaker 1: They should be focused on mission number one, which is,

2089
01:35:41,760 --> 01:35:43,080
Speaker 1: you know, protecting the people.

2090
01:35:42,840 --> 01:35:44,240
Speaker 4: That they are charged with protecting.

2091
01:35:44,320 --> 01:35:50,639
Speaker 1: Absolutely all right, let's go and turn to some very

2092
01:35:50,840 --> 01:35:56,040
Speaker 1: disturbing and very scary developments out of Israel, so we

2093
01:35:56,080 --> 01:35:59,720
Speaker 1: can put this up on the screen. A strike in

2094
01:36:00,080 --> 01:36:06,640
Speaker 1: the Israeli occupied goal On Heights killed twelve kids and

2095
01:36:06,720 --> 01:36:11,000
Speaker 1: young adults who were playing soccer in that region in

2096
01:36:11,080 --> 01:36:17,280
Speaker 1: a Druze community. Israel and the US are blaming Hesbelah

2097
01:36:17,400 --> 01:36:21,880
Speaker 1: for this attack and the killing of these children. Hesbela

2098
01:36:21,920 --> 01:36:26,080
Speaker 1: is denying any sort of culpability here. In a sense,

2099
01:36:26,200 --> 01:36:28,960
Speaker 1: what actually happened really doesn't matter, because Israel and the

2100
01:36:29,040 --> 01:36:34,200
Speaker 1: US are certainly treating this as an attack perpetrated by Hesbela.

2101
01:36:34,400 --> 01:36:37,320
Speaker 1: In the as I said before, Israeli occupied goal on Heights.

2102
01:36:37,320 --> 01:36:39,400
Speaker 1: We could put this up on the screen. This is

2103
01:36:39,439 --> 01:36:41,880
Speaker 1: a very fast moving story because now the question turns

2104
01:36:41,920 --> 01:36:46,000
Speaker 1: to Okay, what is Israel going to do in response?

2105
01:36:46,080 --> 01:36:48,640
Speaker 1: And Sager, you pulled news just this morning that the

2106
01:36:48,840 --> 01:36:54,519
Speaker 1: Israeli security Cabinet has authorized some sort of retaliation. We

2107
01:36:54,600 --> 01:36:57,960
Speaker 1: don't know what that looks like yet, but we do

2108
01:36:58,120 --> 01:37:03,200
Speaker 1: know that there is an credible risk right now in

2109
01:37:03,280 --> 01:37:06,559
Speaker 1: this fraught moment because we've had these exchange of fire

2110
01:37:06,640 --> 01:37:10,520
Speaker 1: between the Israelis and Husbula for you know, since effectively

2111
01:37:10,560 --> 01:37:14,280
Speaker 1: the beginning of this latest war, and it has remained

2112
01:37:14,600 --> 01:37:20,120
Speaker 1: relatively contained. But now the Israelis are threatening massive retaliation.

2113
01:37:21,000 --> 01:37:23,920
Speaker 1: Aran is involving themselves as well.

2114
01:37:24,000 --> 01:37:25,040
Speaker 4: Of course, Israel Is.

2115
01:37:25,000 --> 01:37:28,000
Speaker 1: Always wanting to drag us into some broader conflict, and

2116
01:37:28,080 --> 01:37:32,439
Speaker 1: especially into some conflict with Iran. Reports are that US

2117
01:37:32,439 --> 01:37:35,879
Speaker 1: and other Western diplomats are trying to get the Israelis

2118
01:37:35,920 --> 01:37:39,600
Speaker 1: to temper their response and avoid a massive escalation. But

2119
01:37:39,840 --> 01:37:42,720
Speaker 1: this is a very scary situation we're looking at right.

2120
01:37:42,840 --> 01:37:43,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, it is terrifying.

2121
01:37:44,000 --> 01:37:47,439
Speaker 2: I mean, it's also it's very sad here because we

2122
01:37:47,560 --> 01:37:50,559
Speaker 2: did have twelve kids who are a teenagers and others

2123
01:37:50,600 --> 01:37:53,280
Speaker 2: who were killed in the strike. Obviously, there's a lot

2124
01:37:53,280 --> 01:37:55,720
Speaker 2: of incentive both for Israel's claim it's has Bow and

2125
01:37:55,800 --> 01:37:57,719
Speaker 2: raisable to deny it's them. So at a certain sense,

2126
01:37:57,800 --> 01:37:59,360
Speaker 2: like you said, you know, we're not necessarily going to

2127
01:37:59,400 --> 01:38:01,519
Speaker 2: know what's happen, but we do know that this is.

2128
01:38:01,479 --> 01:38:04,280
Speaker 3: The nightmare scenario for a variety of reasons.

2129
01:38:04,320 --> 01:38:06,880
Speaker 2: Well, we have the Israeli War Cabinet and many other

2130
01:38:06,920 --> 01:38:09,840
Speaker 2: security officials, including Netanya, who have been wanting to take

2131
01:38:09,880 --> 01:38:12,519
Speaker 2: the war to Lebanon for quite a long time because

2132
01:38:12,520 --> 01:38:15,200
Speaker 2: it prolongs the war, which means it prolongs any sort

2133
01:38:15,240 --> 01:38:18,760
Speaker 2: of discussion of what happened on October seventh, conversation around that.

2134
01:38:19,520 --> 01:38:21,639
Speaker 3: So that's very much to their benefit.

2135
01:38:21,920 --> 01:38:25,200
Speaker 2: Well, then we also have this situation where the US

2136
01:38:25,280 --> 01:38:29,360
Speaker 2: security establishment is one where they have to follow along

2137
01:38:29,400 --> 01:38:32,040
Speaker 2: but try to push back to the best of their abilities. Well,

2138
01:38:32,240 --> 01:38:35,280
Speaker 2: in this particular moment, it's very difficult when the Israelis

2139
01:38:35,280 --> 01:38:38,719
Speaker 2: can claim, perhaps with some credibility. I haven't looked exactly

2140
01:38:38,760 --> 01:38:41,599
Speaker 2: into the striker whatever, but it's not outside the realm

2141
01:38:41,600 --> 01:38:44,760
Speaker 2: of possibility that Hesbolaraka killed twelve people in Israel when

2142
01:38:44,760 --> 01:38:48,280
Speaker 2: they've been firing on They've killed some civilians, IDF members, etc.

2143
01:38:48,760 --> 01:38:51,360
Speaker 2: The scariness really of the situation is is that this

2144
01:38:51,560 --> 01:38:53,519
Speaker 2: is not Gaza, and we've tried to say this from

2145
01:38:53,640 --> 01:38:56,080
Speaker 2: the very beginning, is that hezbe Law is a real

2146
01:38:56,360 --> 01:39:01,240
Speaker 2: paramilitary organization with deadly rockets, with much more sophisticated technology,

2147
01:39:01,439 --> 01:39:03,680
Speaker 2: with tens of thousands of more fighters, fighters who are

2148
01:39:03,800 --> 01:39:06,839
Speaker 2: much more well equipped, battle tested throughout the entire Syrian

2149
01:39:07,120 --> 01:39:10,080
Speaker 2: Civil War, and would put the IDF in a very

2150
01:39:10,120 --> 01:39:12,919
Speaker 2: difficult position. And if they're running low on munitions already,

2151
01:39:13,120 --> 01:39:16,200
Speaker 2: you know, just bombing Gaza, good luck actually fighting a

2152
01:39:16,280 --> 01:39:19,240
Speaker 2: real pair of military force in actual like straight up

2153
01:39:19,360 --> 01:39:21,960
Speaker 2: you know, almost peer not pure military, but something that

2154
01:39:22,040 --> 01:39:25,920
Speaker 2: is significantly more equipped to deal with IDF, as we

2155
01:39:25,960 --> 01:39:28,559
Speaker 2: have seen through some various attacks and others that were

2156
01:39:28,600 --> 01:39:31,280
Speaker 2: able to penetrate the Iron Dome. So it's a very

2157
01:39:31,280 --> 01:39:34,840
Speaker 2: different military situation. It's one where the IDF would be

2158
01:39:35,000 --> 01:39:38,640
Speaker 2: seriously matched and it's fighting capacity and the potential for

2159
01:39:38,680 --> 01:39:42,719
Speaker 2: the blowout from there is just sky high. Iran with others,

2160
01:39:42,760 --> 01:39:46,559
Speaker 2: I mean, the relationship between Iran and Hezbollah is you know,

2161
01:39:46,640 --> 01:39:47,000
Speaker 2: like this.

2162
01:39:47,560 --> 01:39:49,120
Speaker 3: There have been reports.

2163
01:39:48,720 --> 01:39:51,840
Speaker 2: Now that the Israelis want to assassinate Nosarella Jas and Nosrela.

2164
01:39:51,920 --> 01:39:54,000
Speaker 2: The thing is is that what people forget is even

2165
01:39:54,000 --> 01:39:56,839
Speaker 2: if Iran were not to get involved, then Lebanon would explode.

2166
01:39:56,840 --> 01:39:59,160
Speaker 2: There could be another civil war that happens that.

2167
01:39:59,080 --> 01:40:02,000
Speaker 1: Levin the hell knows that very rough shape, right le

2168
01:40:02,400 --> 01:40:03,960
Speaker 1: rough shape for decades, especially.

2169
01:40:03,720 --> 01:40:06,320
Speaker 4: Economic basket case. We can put this up on.

2170
01:40:06,240 --> 01:40:08,320
Speaker 1: The screen, which just sort of was a good summary

2171
01:40:08,479 --> 01:40:12,400
Speaker 1: of what has happened so far. So the Joyce Karen

2172
01:40:12,439 --> 01:40:16,880
Speaker 1: says Lebanon braces for Israeli response. There is fear that

2173
01:40:16,920 --> 01:40:20,519
Speaker 1: the Israelis would strike even in Beirut, which would obviously

2174
01:40:20,560 --> 01:40:24,240
Speaker 1: be you know, complete disaster husblaws, evacuating sites in Lebanon

2175
01:40:24,280 --> 01:40:26,800
Speaker 1: pro Iron groups or evacuating sites in Syria.

2176
01:40:26,960 --> 01:40:28,559
Speaker 4: Israel Security meeting underway.

2177
01:40:28,560 --> 01:40:31,240
Speaker 1: Now that meeting has completed and they did authorize some

2178
01:40:31,280 --> 01:40:32,040
Speaker 1: sort of response.

2179
01:40:32,560 --> 01:40:33,519
Speaker 4: Here's the other thing.

2180
01:40:34,040 --> 01:40:36,880
Speaker 1: You have a number of nations telling their citizens to

2181
01:40:36,960 --> 01:40:40,320
Speaker 1: leave Lebanon. But the other context here is this is

2182
01:40:40,320 --> 01:40:43,799
Speaker 1: happening in the midst of these continuing cease fire talks,

2183
01:40:44,280 --> 01:40:47,880
Speaker 1: which there are some indication that the Biden administration is

2184
01:40:47,960 --> 01:40:50,920
Speaker 1: really trying to push to wrap this thing up. I'm

2185
01:40:50,920 --> 01:40:53,800
Speaker 1: going to play for you Kamala Harris's comments after her meeting,

2186
01:40:53,880 --> 01:40:56,559
Speaker 1: and bb was in town last week obviously, and she

2187
01:40:56,680 --> 01:40:58,880
Speaker 1: met with him, Biden met with him, Trump met with him,

2188
01:40:58,920 --> 01:41:02,519
Speaker 1: et cetera. The piece that's linked there in that tweet,

2189
01:41:02,760 --> 01:41:06,040
Speaker 1: they write the escalation is taking place as the MASSAD chief,

2190
01:41:06,080 --> 01:41:09,280
Speaker 1: the CIA chief, Katari's Prime minister, and the head of

2191
01:41:09,320 --> 01:41:12,839
Speaker 1: Egyptian intelligence are all meeting Sunday in Rome to continue

2192
01:41:12,880 --> 01:41:14,880
Speaker 1: talks and a potential deal between Israel and Hamas that

2193
01:41:14,880 --> 01:41:17,840
Speaker 1: would see the release of the hostages and a ceasefire

2194
01:41:17,920 --> 01:41:22,360
Speaker 1: in Gaza. And so while the US wants this thing

2195
01:41:22,400 --> 01:41:26,479
Speaker 1: to be wrapped up and they are trying to avoid

2196
01:41:26,560 --> 01:41:29,760
Speaker 1: an even broader escalation, you know which so far, their

2197
01:41:29,800 --> 01:41:31,960
Speaker 1: original goal was let's not have it spread outside of

2198
01:41:32,080 --> 01:41:34,559
Speaker 1: Gaza at all. That obviously is completely failed. But now

2199
01:41:34,560 --> 01:41:37,640
Speaker 1: it's a let's not have a broader conflagration. But you

2200
01:41:37,680 --> 01:41:41,240
Speaker 1: have to remember the Israeli politicians, who are you totally

2201
01:41:41,280 --> 01:41:44,120
Speaker 1: in control here in the absence of our leadership, they

2202
01:41:44,200 --> 01:41:46,800
Speaker 1: have an interest in expanding the conflict. They have an

2203
01:41:46,800 --> 01:41:51,520
Speaker 1: interest in continuing this war and having justification to do so.

2204
01:41:51,520 --> 01:41:55,719
Speaker 1: So that's part of why this is such a scary situation,

2205
01:41:55,840 --> 01:41:58,040
Speaker 1: such a scary moment right now, and why we're all

2206
01:41:58,040 --> 01:42:01,240
Speaker 1: watching very closely what's going to unfold next. At the

2207
01:42:01,280 --> 01:42:03,680
Speaker 1: same time, we don't want to lose sight of the

2208
01:42:04,120 --> 01:42:07,839
Speaker 1: horrific attacks that continue to occur by the Israelis in Gaza.

2209
01:42:08,640 --> 01:42:12,040
Speaker 1: This was I mean, just imagine for a moment if

2210
01:42:12,080 --> 01:42:14,400
Speaker 1: it was Russia doing what I'm about to show you,

2211
01:42:14,520 --> 01:42:20,360
Speaker 1: which is an IDF soldier planted explosives, detonated a water

2212
01:42:20,400 --> 01:42:24,920
Speaker 1: station that a million plus people depend on. Put it

2213
01:42:24,920 --> 01:42:28,439
Speaker 1: out on Instagram. Very proud of his actions. He says

2214
01:42:28,439 --> 01:42:33,400
Speaker 1: it's in honor of Shabbat. And also the soundtrack is

2215
01:42:33,600 --> 01:42:36,960
Speaker 1: you know, some some song about destroying Gaza and how

2216
01:42:37,000 --> 01:42:41,440
Speaker 1: great that'll be. So take a look at this instagram

2217
01:42:41,760 --> 01:42:44,360
Speaker 1: that was posted here. You can see, you know, the

2218
01:42:44,400 --> 01:42:48,480
Speaker 1: water station, you can see the IDF soldiers there preparing

2219
01:42:48,680 --> 01:42:51,600
Speaker 1: the detonation. And then this is the you know, the

2220
01:42:51,640 --> 01:42:54,599
Speaker 1: water tank, the large facility. This is in Rafa, by

2221
01:42:54,640 --> 01:42:58,320
Speaker 1: the way, and here is the explosion, blowing up this

2222
01:42:58,720 --> 01:43:05,640
Speaker 1: absolutely critical water infrastructure at a time when obviously Palestinians

2223
01:43:05,680 --> 01:43:08,559
Speaker 1: and Gaza are already starving, already struggling with a lack

2224
01:43:08,640 --> 01:43:10,880
Speaker 1: of clean drinking water. We now have reports that there's

2225
01:43:10,960 --> 01:43:15,200
Speaker 1: polio in the sewage in Gaza. IDF soldiers are being

2226
01:43:15,320 --> 01:43:18,519
Speaker 1: vaccinated for polio to make sure that they don't contract it.

2227
01:43:18,560 --> 01:43:22,960
Speaker 1: As well as the disastrous situation. Ryan and Jeremy Scahill

2228
01:43:23,040 --> 01:43:26,599
Speaker 1: over at drop site News, they commissioned an article from

2229
01:43:26,800 --> 01:43:31,120
Speaker 1: the journalists who had discovered this is Yunice Terrawi, who

2230
01:43:31,200 --> 01:43:32,719
Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys follow him on Twitter,

2231
01:43:32,760 --> 01:43:35,000
Speaker 1: you definitely should. But he has been finding a lot

2232
01:43:35,040 --> 01:43:39,280
Speaker 1: of these IDF tiktoks Instagrams, et cetera, and he wrote

2233
01:43:39,320 --> 01:43:40,559
Speaker 1: about this particular one.

2234
01:43:40,600 --> 01:43:41,400
Speaker 4: The headline here is the.

2235
01:43:41,400 --> 01:43:44,240
Speaker 1: IDEF just destroyed a key Raffa water facility that Rachel

2236
01:43:44,280 --> 01:43:48,480
Speaker 1: Corey spent her last month of her life defending.

2237
01:43:48,840 --> 01:43:49,280
Speaker 4: He writes.

2238
01:43:49,320 --> 01:43:51,640
Speaker 1: On Friday, I discovered a video posted on Instagram by

2239
01:43:51,680 --> 01:43:55,240
Speaker 1: an Israeli soldiers showing the calculated demolition of a chief

2240
01:43:55,320 --> 01:43:58,320
Speaker 1: water facility in Rafa. He goes on to say that

2241
01:43:58,640 --> 01:44:01,720
Speaker 1: US human rights activists Rachel Corey, who has crushed to

2242
01:44:01,760 --> 01:44:04,200
Speaker 1: death in two thousand and three budis rarely military bulldozer.

2243
01:44:04,200 --> 01:44:06,679
Speaker 1: While attempting to prevent demolitions in the city. Spent much

2244
01:44:06,720 --> 01:44:09,280
Speaker 1: of her time during the last month of her life

2245
01:44:09,360 --> 01:44:13,759
Speaker 1: helping to protect this very facility, specifically the municipality workers

2246
01:44:13,760 --> 01:44:18,000
Speaker 1: who were at this very facility because it was so critical.

2247
01:44:18,080 --> 01:44:20,439
Speaker 1: I referenced before the soundtrack that's in the background of

2248
01:44:20,479 --> 01:44:21,240
Speaker 1: that instagram.

2249
01:44:21,439 --> 01:44:21,840
Speaker 4: He says.

2250
01:44:21,840 --> 01:44:24,759
Speaker 1: The lyrics include things like we will burn Gaza, shake

2251
01:44:24,800 --> 01:44:27,320
Speaker 1: all of Gaza. For every house you destroy, we will

2252
01:44:27,360 --> 01:44:31,639
Speaker 1: destroy ten and critically. Unice also points out that this

2253
01:44:31,720 --> 01:44:37,080
Speaker 1: plan to starve and dehydrate residents of Gaza house innings

2254
01:44:37,120 --> 01:44:39,880
Speaker 1: in Gaza. This was announced early on in the war.

2255
01:44:40,240 --> 01:44:43,760
Speaker 1: Early on in October, an advisor to Yoav Goan laid

2256
01:44:43,800 --> 01:44:46,880
Speaker 1: out this strategy in a radio interview. She said, Israel

2257
01:44:46,920 --> 01:44:49,519
Speaker 1: as I understand, close the water supply to Gaza, but

2258
01:44:49,560 --> 01:44:51,679
Speaker 1: there are many wells in Gaza which contained water which

2259
01:44:51,680 --> 01:44:54,800
Speaker 1: they treat locally since originally they contain salt. If the

2260
01:44:54,920 --> 01:44:57,160
Speaker 1: energy shortage in Gaza makes it so that they stop

2261
01:44:57,200 --> 01:45:00,759
Speaker 1: pumping out water, that's good. Otherwise we have to attack

2262
01:45:00,800 --> 01:45:03,560
Speaker 1: these water treatment plans in order to create a situation

2263
01:45:03,680 --> 01:45:06,320
Speaker 1: of thirst and hunger in Gaza. And I would say

2264
01:45:06,400 --> 01:45:10,880
Speaker 1: forworn of an unprecedented economical and humanitarian crisis. Even her

2265
01:45:10,960 --> 01:45:13,839
Speaker 1: radio interviewer in Israel was kind of shocked by those comments.

2266
01:45:14,040 --> 01:45:14,879
Speaker 4: But lo and behold.

2267
01:45:14,960 --> 01:45:18,719
Speaker 1: A BBC analysis based on satellite data from May ninth

2268
01:45:19,080 --> 01:45:22,960
Speaker 1: found that fifty percent of Gaza's water and sanitation facilities

2269
01:45:23,040 --> 01:45:26,560
Speaker 1: have been damaged or destroyed since Israel began their offensive

2270
01:45:26,720 --> 01:45:32,160
Speaker 1: following the October seventh attack. So, as I said before, Sager, imagine,

2271
01:45:32,240 --> 01:45:35,080
Speaker 1: if it was Russia, it should be condemned.

2272
01:45:35,760 --> 01:45:36,719
Speaker 4: It should be condemned.

2273
01:45:36,840 --> 01:45:39,559
Speaker 1: Once it's Russia, if it's Russia doing this in Ukraine,

2274
01:45:39,600 --> 01:45:42,240
Speaker 1: and it should be condemned here, and yet we will

2275
01:45:42,240 --> 01:45:45,120
Speaker 1: hear nothing about it. And you know, it's also worth

2276
01:45:45,240 --> 01:45:48,439
Speaker 1: pointing out there continue to be horrific deadly strikes by

2277
01:45:48,479 --> 01:45:51,559
Speaker 1: the Israelis in Gaza. And you know, it's nice to

2278
01:45:51,560 --> 01:45:54,639
Speaker 1: see people actually caring about children being killed as they

2279
01:45:54,640 --> 01:45:58,920
Speaker 1: are with these Druis children in the Israeli occupied Golan heights.

2280
01:45:59,280 --> 01:46:01,920
Speaker 1: I just wish that that same care and concern was

2281
01:46:01,920 --> 01:46:05,639
Speaker 1: applied to all children, no matter their race, nationality, or

2282
01:46:05,800 --> 01:46:07,240
Speaker 1: geography of where they happen to live.

2283
01:46:07,320 --> 01:46:10,519
Speaker 2: I think it's what I'm very worried about is the

2284
01:46:10,560 --> 01:46:14,920
Speaker 2: proxy fight, and as the continuing spillover effect of all

2285
01:46:14,960 --> 01:46:17,519
Speaker 2: of this that we will get further away both from

2286
01:46:17,600 --> 01:46:22,040
Speaker 2: any sort of humanitarian solution, you know with the ceasefire

2287
01:46:22,120 --> 01:46:25,200
Speaker 2: and allowing aid and Tagaza, but actually an expansion of

2288
01:46:25,240 --> 01:46:28,200
Speaker 2: the war, which let's not there are millions of people

2289
01:46:28,240 --> 01:46:31,479
Speaker 2: who live in Syria and in Lebanon, not to mention

2290
01:46:31,640 --> 01:46:33,200
Speaker 2: Aaron and everywhere else.

2291
01:46:33,240 --> 01:46:35,320
Speaker 3: There are also always.

2292
01:46:35,000 --> 01:46:38,720
Speaker 2: Remember this, tens of thousands of US service members who

2293
01:46:38,760 --> 01:46:41,800
Speaker 2: are sitting there sitting ducks. And also, I'll bring it

2294
01:46:41,840 --> 01:46:44,200
Speaker 2: back to the domestic situation. This is where I am

2295
01:46:44,200 --> 01:46:46,840
Speaker 2: most terrified of Biden. His cooked brain is the one

2296
01:46:46,880 --> 01:46:49,479
Speaker 2: responsible for trying to keep us out of this. A

2297
01:46:49,560 --> 01:46:51,720
Speaker 2: real president to get his ass on a plane and

2298
01:46:51,800 --> 01:46:55,200
Speaker 2: get over there now and actually try and bring some

2299
01:46:55,200 --> 01:46:57,960
Speaker 2: sort of solution to this. Instead, we've got you know,

2300
01:46:58,439 --> 01:47:01,160
Speaker 2: like blinkn and Jake Sullivan who go great track record

2301
01:47:01,240 --> 01:47:03,639
Speaker 2: right that they have on this. So I am, I am,

2302
01:47:04,280 --> 01:47:07,320
Speaker 2: our vice president is here campaigning for our job. We've

2303
01:47:07,320 --> 01:47:10,320
Speaker 2: got the literal C minus team who is running American

2304
01:47:10,320 --> 01:47:11,360
Speaker 2: foreign policy right now.

2305
01:47:11,479 --> 01:47:14,160
Speaker 3: I'm terrified. This is where he needs to go tomorrow.

2306
01:47:14,280 --> 01:47:16,680
Speaker 1: He needs he needs to go, and he needs to

2307
01:47:17,240 --> 01:47:21,280
Speaker 1: actually be willing to flex some American muscle with regards

2308
01:47:21,280 --> 01:47:24,840
Speaker 1: to this, because I mean long overdue, and listen, if

2309
01:47:24,840 --> 01:47:28,599
Speaker 1: you're beb you know, the calculation was very clear. First

2310
01:47:28,640 --> 01:47:30,400
Speaker 1: of all, you've got an ally in Biden, You've got

2311
01:47:30,439 --> 01:47:34,080
Speaker 1: an even greater ally in Trump. So he clearly felt like,

2312
01:47:34,080 --> 01:47:35,240
Speaker 1: all right, if I can just run out of the

2313
01:47:35,280 --> 01:47:38,400
Speaker 1: clocks November, Trump's going to destroy Biden. And so you know,

2314
01:47:38,600 --> 01:47:40,840
Speaker 1: I can do whatever I want then, and I won't

2315
01:47:40,840 --> 01:47:43,720
Speaker 1: get any pushback whatsoever, even like the little bit of

2316
01:47:43,760 --> 01:47:47,360
Speaker 1: handring and that Joe Biden has done. So people were

2317
01:47:47,360 --> 01:47:52,679
Speaker 1: watching very closely what comments Kamala Harris would make coming

2318
01:47:52,680 --> 01:47:55,559
Speaker 1: out of her meeting last week with bb NET Nyaho.

2319
01:47:55,680 --> 01:47:58,600
Speaker 1: Reading the tea leaves of whether there's any chance she

2320
01:47:58,640 --> 01:48:02,280
Speaker 1: would be different at all from the Biden Harris administration,

2321
01:48:03,320 --> 01:48:05,080
Speaker 1: given that you know, this is a woman, as I

2322
01:48:05,120 --> 01:48:07,960
Speaker 1: said before, like she really it's really not clear that

2323
01:48:08,000 --> 01:48:11,160
Speaker 1: she actually has any core beliefs on anything. So trying

2324
01:48:11,200 --> 01:48:12,800
Speaker 1: to figure out where she's going to be is an

2325
01:48:12,920 --> 01:48:15,040
Speaker 1: art and like teep Leave reading and trying to figure

2326
01:48:15,040 --> 01:48:18,400
Speaker 1: out what the political calculation is going to be. She

2327
01:48:18,479 --> 01:48:23,000
Speaker 1: gave comments that the tone was definitely different from what

2328
01:48:23,040 --> 01:48:25,800
Speaker 1: Biden has said, this has been fairly consistent for her

2329
01:48:26,520 --> 01:48:30,000
Speaker 1: in the vice presidency, where she has sounded notes of

2330
01:48:30,160 --> 01:48:34,599
Speaker 1: much more empathy for Palestinians than Joe Biden has. Does

2331
01:48:34,680 --> 01:48:37,760
Speaker 1: that amount to any sort of policy shift? That is

2332
01:48:37,840 --> 01:48:39,880
Speaker 1: very much tbd. Let's take a listen to a little

2333
01:48:39,880 --> 01:48:40,800
Speaker 1: bit of what she had to say.

2334
01:48:41,040 --> 01:48:44,240
Speaker 5: I told him that I will always ensure that Israel

2335
01:48:44,520 --> 01:48:48,799
Speaker 5: is able to defend itself, including from Iran and Iran

2336
01:48:48,920 --> 01:48:53,600
Speaker 5: backed militias such as Hamas and Hisbolah. Israel has a

2337
01:48:53,720 --> 01:48:58,639
Speaker 5: right to defend itself and how it does so matters.

2338
01:48:59,240 --> 01:49:02,920
Speaker 5: And I made clear my serious concern about the dire

2339
01:49:03,080 --> 01:49:08,960
Speaker 5: humanitarian situation there, with over two million people facing high

2340
01:49:09,040 --> 01:49:14,040
Speaker 5: levels of food insecurity and half a million people facing

2341
01:49:14,160 --> 01:49:20,280
Speaker 5: catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity. What has happened in

2342
01:49:20,400 --> 01:49:24,799
Speaker 5: Gaza over the past nine months is devastating. The images

2343
01:49:24,880 --> 01:49:30,760
Speaker 5: of dead children and desperate, hungry people fleeing for safety,

2344
01:49:31,280 --> 01:49:37,000
Speaker 5: sometimes displaced for the second, third, or fourth time. We

2345
01:49:37,040 --> 01:49:40,479
Speaker 5: cannot look away in the face of these tragedies. We

2346
01:49:40,520 --> 01:49:45,120
Speaker 5: cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering, and

2347
01:49:45,240 --> 01:49:46,679
Speaker 5: I will not be silent.

2348
01:49:47,439 --> 01:49:49,640
Speaker 1: So there you go, Like I said, different tone. Does

2349
01:49:49,720 --> 01:49:53,000
Speaker 1: it mean anything? Your guess it's ultimately as good as mine.

2350
01:49:53,000 --> 01:49:56,120
Speaker 1: I guess the good indication is she's already said she's

2351
01:49:56,200 --> 01:49:58,080
Speaker 1: kicking out Sullivan, Lincoln and co.

2352
01:49:59,240 --> 01:50:01,920
Speaker 2: Okay, she didn't say that was leaked to somebody who

2353
01:50:01,960 --> 01:50:04,000
Speaker 2: reported it. Do I believe that maybe?

2354
01:50:04,080 --> 01:50:06,680
Speaker 1: Well, the fact that someone felt that it was a

2355
01:50:06,680 --> 01:50:08,960
Speaker 1: good thing to leak is, you know, a positive sign.

2356
01:50:09,280 --> 01:50:12,200
Speaker 1: On the other hand, you know, I don't think anyone

2357
01:50:12,200 --> 01:50:15,839
Speaker 1: should get their hopes of it's she reaffirmed after this speech,

2358
01:50:15,880 --> 01:50:17,800
Speaker 1: because of course is really's freaked. Oh my god, how

2359
01:50:17,880 --> 01:50:21,560
Speaker 1: dare you like even even like gesture at a criticism

2360
01:50:21,680 --> 01:50:24,599
Speaker 1: of us. Her office put out that, you know, her

2361
01:50:24,640 --> 01:50:27,519
Speaker 1: position in Biden's position are the same and hasn't changed.

2362
01:50:27,280 --> 01:50:28,120
Speaker 4: Et cetera, et cetera.

2363
01:50:28,280 --> 01:50:31,000
Speaker 1: So is there a shift coming in terms of policy here?

2364
01:50:31,400 --> 01:50:31,680
Speaker 4: Don't know.

2365
01:50:31,800 --> 01:50:33,800
Speaker 2: Here's what I would say, Philip Gordon, I've known who

2366
01:50:33,800 --> 01:50:35,400
Speaker 2: he is for a while. He worked for Anthony B.

2367
01:50:35,400 --> 01:50:38,120
Speaker 2: Lincoln whenever he was at the State Department under Obama

2368
01:50:38,280 --> 01:50:40,280
Speaker 2: he was the assistant secretary. Did he write a book

2369
01:50:40,280 --> 01:50:41,639
Speaker 2: on the Middle East where he said Iraq.

2370
01:50:41,479 --> 01:50:43,720
Speaker 3: Was a mistake? Okay, I mean that's just not that's

2371
01:50:43,760 --> 01:50:45,720
Speaker 3: such a low bar for me. I don't think there's

2372
01:50:45,760 --> 01:50:46,720
Speaker 3: been Actually.

2373
01:50:46,320 --> 01:50:49,800
Speaker 1: She genuinely comes listen, like the question is are we

2374
01:50:49,840 --> 01:50:52,439
Speaker 1: going to get the Biden bear hug strategy or are

2375
01:50:52,439 --> 01:50:55,400
Speaker 1: we going to get the Obama like slightly better like

2376
01:50:55,439 --> 01:50:58,400
Speaker 1: willing to I mean the Iranian nuclear deal that Israeli's

2377
01:50:58,640 --> 01:51:01,040
Speaker 1: genuinely like that was a gen you and rebuke of

2378
01:51:01,160 --> 01:51:03,280
Speaker 1: just We're going to do whatever you want, whenever you want,

2379
01:51:03,320 --> 01:51:05,240
Speaker 1: et cetera. When he was on his way out, he

2380
01:51:05,280 --> 01:51:08,160
Speaker 1: allowed a resolution through the UN security gut like we're

2381
01:51:08,200 --> 01:51:10,479
Speaker 1: not talking about a total one to eighty here. With

2382
01:51:10,560 --> 01:51:14,719
Speaker 1: regards to where Kamala Harris positions herself, the reason why

2383
01:51:14,800 --> 01:51:17,439
Speaker 1: I am cautiously if optimistic we may get the Obama

2384
01:51:17,479 --> 01:51:20,559
Speaker 1: policy versus the Biden policy is just number one. She

2385
01:51:20,760 --> 01:51:23,479
Speaker 1: just isn't ideological on this in the way that Biden has,

2386
01:51:23,880 --> 01:51:26,599
Speaker 1: and Biden has been so ideological as to be willing

2387
01:51:26,640 --> 01:51:29,280
Speaker 1: to damage his own political prospects. And it is my

2388
01:51:29,360 --> 01:51:32,200
Speaker 1: contention that if you are just doing as Nancy Pelosi

2389
01:51:32,320 --> 01:51:35,759
Speaker 1: is a naked analysis of the politics as they exist today,

2390
01:51:36,040 --> 01:51:39,000
Speaker 1: it would merit a different response here than what has

2391
01:51:39,040 --> 01:51:42,200
Speaker 1: been given, because it was quite clear, the Gaza War

2392
01:51:42,320 --> 01:51:43,280
Speaker 1: was a drag on Biden.

2393
01:51:43,280 --> 01:51:44,559
Speaker 4: It was a disaster for him.

2394
01:51:44,640 --> 01:51:46,680
Speaker 1: It was a big part of the reason why, you know,

2395
01:51:46,800 --> 01:51:49,439
Speaker 1: young people, his numbers with young people were so terrible,

2396
01:51:49,680 --> 01:51:53,040
Speaker 1: and his numbers with actually black Americans have a much

2397
01:51:53,040 --> 01:51:55,640
Speaker 1: different view of this conflict typically than white Americans do,

2398
01:51:55,680 --> 01:51:57,920
Speaker 1: and it was dragging down his numbers with Black Americans

2399
01:51:57,960 --> 01:52:01,080
Speaker 1: as well. So that's I'm not hopeful because I think

2400
01:52:01,120 --> 01:52:03,479
Speaker 1: she's courageous, they're going to take us stare whatever. I

2401
01:52:03,520 --> 01:52:05,360
Speaker 1: just think the politics on this have shifted. I think

2402
01:52:05,360 --> 01:52:08,120
Speaker 1: Bebe's made himself a very partisan right wing figure, and

2403
01:52:08,160 --> 01:52:11,360
Speaker 1: so if you're just responding to like the normal democratic

2404
01:52:11,400 --> 01:52:14,800
Speaker 1: politician calculus, at this point, I think it augurs more

2405
01:52:14,840 --> 01:52:18,280
Speaker 1: in the direction of an Obama Israel foreign policy, which

2406
01:52:18,280 --> 01:52:21,080
Speaker 1: again is not amazing, but it's somewhat better versus a

2407
01:52:21,320 --> 01:52:22,599
Speaker 1: Biden Israel forum.

2408
01:52:22,400 --> 01:52:23,360
Speaker 3: Policy I do.

2409
01:52:23,640 --> 01:52:25,800
Speaker 2: My only caution is on Ukraine, where I think they've

2410
01:52:26,000 --> 01:52:26,960
Speaker 2: totally lost it, but.

2411
01:52:26,920 --> 01:52:27,800
Speaker 3: We'll save that for us.

2412
01:52:27,880 --> 01:52:30,360
Speaker 4: I think she's got the same because Biden does, basically.

2413
01:52:30,040 --> 01:52:32,400
Speaker 2: But that's worse because it's unchecked from at least the

2414
01:52:32,400 --> 01:52:34,400
Speaker 2: guy who got us out of Afghanistan, and at least

2415
01:52:34,400 --> 01:52:36,479
Speaker 2: waited to ship weapons as opposed to.

2416
01:52:37,120 --> 01:52:39,840
Speaker 3: Letting them into Allay. Now, well, well.

2417
01:52:39,920 --> 01:52:42,000
Speaker 2: There's more to go all in. Just wait, we're only

2418
01:52:42,000 --> 01:52:45,280
Speaker 2: half the pot so far. Let's get to the cartel's block.

2419
01:52:45,360 --> 01:52:47,800
Speaker 2: Because this is a story been dying to cover. And

2420
01:52:47,920 --> 01:52:50,880
Speaker 2: when I saw the news, I was just absolutely stunned.

2421
01:52:50,880 --> 01:52:53,040
Speaker 2: So let's go and put this up there on the screen.

2422
01:52:53,560 --> 01:52:57,080
Speaker 2: What we have here is a the El Mayo and

2423
01:52:57,240 --> 01:53:00,559
Speaker 2: Guzman capture. We have a picture here of one of

2424
01:53:00,640 --> 01:53:04,479
Speaker 2: El Choppo's sons who has been wanted by Mexican and

2425
01:53:04,520 --> 01:53:09,400
Speaker 2: American authorities. He has been indicted here under US federal

2426
01:53:09,520 --> 01:53:12,719
Speaker 2: courts and has been long wanted by the US Department

2427
01:53:12,760 --> 01:53:16,040
Speaker 2: of Justice and by Mexican authorities. Previously. You will remember

2428
01:53:16,080 --> 01:53:19,559
Speaker 2: that one of his brothers, one of El Chappo's other sons,

2429
01:53:19,840 --> 01:53:24,040
Speaker 2: whenever he was in a major firefight with Mexican authorities

2430
01:53:24,080 --> 01:53:28,040
Speaker 2: in a surprise capture where they didn't necessarily expect to

2431
01:53:28,040 --> 01:53:31,200
Speaker 2: be able to get him, and hundreds of people were

2432
01:53:31,240 --> 01:53:33,720
Speaker 2: affected by this. The entire city was shut down, and

2433
01:53:33,760 --> 01:53:37,360
Speaker 2: it was a picture of lawlessness. This highlighted of what

2434
01:53:37,520 --> 01:53:40,519
Speaker 2: was thought by many people and analysts to be kind

2435
01:53:40,520 --> 01:53:43,960
Speaker 2: of a proxy war and or rivalry between El Mayo,

2436
01:53:44,120 --> 01:53:47,160
Speaker 2: one of the other single singular figures in the Sinaloa cartel,

2437
01:53:47,439 --> 01:53:50,559
Speaker 2: and then the El Chapo dynasty his two sons. Well,

2438
01:53:50,560 --> 01:53:52,680
Speaker 2: what has now happened is, let's put this up there

2439
01:53:52,720 --> 01:53:56,880
Speaker 2: on the screen. El Mayo has been arrested on Thursday

2440
01:53:57,200 --> 01:54:02,200
Speaker 2: by US federal authorities near El Paso, Texas. The official

2441
01:54:02,240 --> 01:54:07,000
Speaker 2: story appears to be that El Chappo's son lured El

2442
01:54:07,160 --> 01:54:11,360
Speaker 2: Mayo onto a private plane in the guise of we're

2443
01:54:11,360 --> 01:54:15,360
Speaker 2: going to go tour some private airfields in northern Mexico

2444
01:54:15,479 --> 01:54:17,479
Speaker 2: and we're going to see and set up things for

2445
01:54:17,560 --> 01:54:21,120
Speaker 2: our drug smuggling routes. It appears that throughout this he

2446
01:54:21,400 --> 01:54:24,920
Speaker 2: El Choppo's son was able to restrain El Mayo, or

2447
01:54:24,960 --> 01:54:27,320
Speaker 2: at least lure him there under false pretenses and restrain

2448
01:54:27,400 --> 01:54:30,040
Speaker 2: him there on the plane before landing the plane in

2449
01:54:30,240 --> 01:54:34,000
Speaker 2: Texas and having US federal authorities arrest him on the

2450
01:54:34,040 --> 01:54:37,040
Speaker 2: outstanding indictments that have been against al Mayo now for

2451
01:54:37,120 --> 01:54:37,960
Speaker 2: quite a long time.

2452
01:54:38,160 --> 01:54:38,320
Speaker 3: Now.

2453
01:54:38,360 --> 01:54:40,920
Speaker 2: The reason why this is super fascinating is that al

2454
01:54:41,000 --> 01:54:44,680
Speaker 2: Mayo has evaded custody now for more than three decades.

2455
01:54:44,720 --> 01:54:47,640
Speaker 2: People didn't have an accurate photo of him. Nobody knew

2456
01:54:47,720 --> 01:54:50,520
Speaker 2: much about him. He was the antithesis Tel Choppo, who

2457
01:54:50,520 --> 01:54:53,440
Speaker 2: avoided the spotlight, didn't want to do interviews, was very

2458
01:54:53,480 --> 01:54:55,440
Speaker 2: much under the radar, and in fact he's one of

2459
01:54:55,480 --> 01:54:58,600
Speaker 2: the og figures who is able to survive. For quite

2460
01:54:58,600 --> 01:55:00,680
Speaker 2: a long time, there's been a lot of skept crystal

2461
01:55:00,720 --> 01:55:02,520
Speaker 2: that he was even like we knew he was a

2462
01:55:02,560 --> 01:55:03,200
Speaker 2: drug cartel.

2463
01:55:03,400 --> 01:55:05,360
Speaker 3: But the theory was is that the government, the.

2464
01:55:05,360 --> 01:55:08,240
Speaker 2: DEA, and the Mexicans had all basically made peace with

2465
01:55:08,320 --> 01:55:11,120
Speaker 2: El Mayo where he is able to give up like

2466
01:55:11,160 --> 01:55:14,760
Speaker 2: allegedly gave up his own sons to authority. He rats

2467
01:55:14,800 --> 01:55:17,480
Speaker 2: out others and in exchange they allow him to kind

2468
01:55:17,520 --> 01:55:20,200
Speaker 2: of be the figurehead the theories that having a bigger

2469
01:55:20,240 --> 01:55:23,120
Speaker 2: cartel is usually to deal with than massive cartel wars.

2470
01:55:23,360 --> 01:55:26,120
Speaker 3: But now his arrest, well that's actually true. It is true.

2471
01:55:26,240 --> 01:55:26,720
Speaker 12: Yeah.

2472
01:55:26,760 --> 01:55:31,200
Speaker 1: I mean, they're bracing for escalated violence because of these two.

2473
01:55:31,360 --> 01:55:33,400
Speaker 2: The fallout of this is going to be that there

2474
01:55:33,400 --> 01:55:36,960
Speaker 2: will absolutely be massive war because now you have both

2475
01:55:37,000 --> 01:55:39,120
Speaker 2: of the sons of l Chappo and Al Mayo. Now

2476
01:55:39,800 --> 01:55:41,840
Speaker 2: Chapo himself is now in federal I think he's in

2477
01:55:41,880 --> 01:55:46,760
Speaker 2: Supermac's prison. So now the political vacuum in Mexico is massive,

2478
01:55:46,800 --> 01:55:50,320
Speaker 2: the territorial wars, the Cinelloa cartel, the largest cartel in

2479
01:55:50,360 --> 01:55:52,400
Speaker 2: all of Mexico. What does it mean for both their

2480
01:55:52,440 --> 01:55:55,600
Speaker 2: own home territory and the various ports, drug ports and

2481
01:55:55,600 --> 01:55:59,120
Speaker 2: all them that they control politically? The big question here

2482
01:55:59,440 --> 01:56:02,200
Speaker 2: is was he arrested in Texas? Why is l Chappo's

2483
01:56:02,240 --> 01:56:05,560
Speaker 2: son cutting deals with, you know, the federal government here.

2484
01:56:05,920 --> 01:56:08,360
Speaker 2: The theory is that El Chappo's son is a young

2485
01:56:08,440 --> 01:56:10,920
Speaker 2: man and I think he's like thirties or something, yeah,

2486
01:56:10,920 --> 01:56:14,280
Speaker 2: and that in exchange for trading El Maya one of

2487
01:56:14,320 --> 01:56:17,880
Speaker 2: those wanted fugitives in US history, that they could he

2488
01:56:17,880 --> 01:56:20,120
Speaker 2: could then possibly get out of prison and breathe there,

2489
01:56:20,160 --> 01:56:22,240
Speaker 2: but by the time he's fifty or something like that,

2490
01:56:22,360 --> 01:56:25,200
Speaker 2: and possibly even rope in his dad and reduce both

2491
01:56:25,320 --> 01:56:29,000
Speaker 2: all of their sentences. But the Mexican government was unaware

2492
01:56:29,160 --> 01:56:31,120
Speaker 2: of this deal, So there's a question to the Mexicans

2493
01:56:31,160 --> 01:56:33,320
Speaker 2: were they in on it? Like in terms of being

2494
01:56:33,400 --> 01:56:36,080
Speaker 2: protection for l Mayo, it is a bit suspicious. It

2495
01:56:36,160 --> 01:56:39,720
Speaker 2: was never truly captured there or even came close to authority,

2496
01:56:39,840 --> 01:56:44,440
Speaker 2: So there's fascinating levels at the cartel level, at the movie.

2497
01:56:44,640 --> 01:56:45,600
Speaker 3: Like events here.

2498
01:56:45,760 --> 01:56:48,840
Speaker 2: There's even some skepticism and some theory out there that

2499
01:56:48,920 --> 01:56:51,160
Speaker 2: he actually engineered this entire thing.

2500
01:56:51,480 --> 01:56:53,520
Speaker 3: And he's like, I'm seventy six, I don't want to

2501
01:56:53,520 --> 01:56:53,840
Speaker 3: be on the.

2502
01:56:53,840 --> 01:56:56,160
Speaker 2: Run anymore, So I'm just going to go in cut

2503
01:56:56,200 --> 01:56:58,280
Speaker 2: my deals and you know, just go out on my

2504
01:56:58,280 --> 01:56:59,760
Speaker 2: own terms. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me,

2505
01:56:59,760 --> 01:57:01,400
Speaker 2: because I wouldn't want to die in federal prison.

2506
01:57:01,560 --> 01:57:03,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you continue to evade capture, why would you?

2507
01:57:03,880 --> 01:57:04,280
Speaker 6: Why not?

2508
01:57:05,160 --> 01:57:07,320
Speaker 2: Apparently had diabetes. He wasn't having a good time on

2509
01:57:07,320 --> 01:57:09,280
Speaker 2: the run, you know, because it's not a fun life.

2510
01:57:09,280 --> 01:57:11,480
Speaker 2: You got to move her, You got to move mansions

2511
01:57:11,480 --> 01:57:14,200
Speaker 2: every day whenever people are on your trail. You can't

2512
01:57:14,200 --> 01:57:16,880
Speaker 2: talk on the cell phone. You're constantly under the radar.

2513
01:57:17,040 --> 01:57:18,880
Speaker 2: Your own sons are in prison. So it's not like

2514
01:57:18,920 --> 01:57:22,640
Speaker 2: the best life that you're choosing. Regardless, it is a

2515
01:57:22,680 --> 01:57:25,520
Speaker 2: fascinating turn of events. It is a massive coup for

2516
01:57:25,680 --> 01:57:28,120
Speaker 2: the Justice Department to get their hands on l Mile.

2517
01:57:28,200 --> 01:57:30,680
Speaker 2: And like I said, originally, my true hope here is

2518
01:57:30,720 --> 01:57:32,520
Speaker 2: that we go to trial because I want to know

2519
01:57:32,800 --> 01:57:35,800
Speaker 2: all the details about Kuzman and whether he kind of

2520
01:57:35,840 --> 01:57:38,600
Speaker 2: deal with authorities, how we actually lured him on the plane.

2521
01:57:39,160 --> 01:57:41,000
Speaker 2: There's a lot of questions here, is like, why is

2522
01:57:41,040 --> 01:57:43,920
Speaker 2: a multi billionaire, one of the most powerful drug lords

2523
01:57:44,080 --> 01:57:46,120
Speaker 2: getting onto a plane or even showing up to a

2524
01:57:46,160 --> 01:57:49,440
Speaker 2: meeting with no protection with your rivals who you know

2525
01:57:49,560 --> 01:57:52,360
Speaker 2: don't like you. So what happened there? Did somebody get

2526
01:57:52,360 --> 01:57:55,680
Speaker 2: paid off? You know the details of his are truly crazy?

2527
01:57:55,960 --> 01:57:59,520
Speaker 1: Do you buy this idea that he because so my

2528
01:57:59,600 --> 01:58:03,480
Speaker 1: understand from reading three articles yesterday about this very deep

2529
01:58:03,600 --> 01:58:06,160
Speaker 1: knowledge that I have here. But my understanding is that

2530
01:58:06,240 --> 01:58:08,480
Speaker 1: his whole thing El Mayo was like that. He was

2531
01:58:08,520 --> 01:58:11,440
Speaker 1: so crafty and I've never been caught and never gets

2532
01:58:11,520 --> 01:58:14,920
Speaker 1: tricked and would never get loured into something as thin

2533
01:58:15,000 --> 01:58:17,120
Speaker 1: as like hey, buddy, let's go look at some real

2534
01:58:17,240 --> 01:58:17,760
Speaker 1: estate with you.

2535
01:58:17,840 --> 01:58:19,400
Speaker 2: That's why I don't believe it. That's why I think

2536
01:58:19,440 --> 01:58:22,200
Speaker 2: it's I think there's something else going on here. Really, Yeah,

2537
01:58:22,240 --> 01:58:25,040
Speaker 2: it's just shocked. I mean, how do you evade capture?

2538
01:58:24,880 --> 01:58:28,440
Speaker 2: You're seventy six, You've seen every trick in the book. People,

2539
01:58:28,720 --> 01:58:30,680
Speaker 2: I mean, hundreds of people tried to kill you. The

2540
01:58:30,720 --> 01:58:33,960
Speaker 2: Mexican government has been allegedly at least trying to capture you.

2541
01:58:33,960 --> 01:58:36,440
Speaker 3: You've been striking deals. You don't have a single source,

2542
01:58:36,520 --> 01:58:37,800
Speaker 3: you know, in the DEA or whatever.

2543
01:58:38,040 --> 01:58:40,520
Speaker 2: These Chopo brothers, you know, you think that they're idiots,

2544
01:58:40,560 --> 01:58:42,920
Speaker 2: which they are, and you know here you don't have

2545
01:58:42,960 --> 01:58:45,480
Speaker 2: a source, you know, in their operation or somewhere else

2546
01:58:45,480 --> 01:58:47,240
Speaker 2: that you just how do you get on this plane?

2547
01:58:47,480 --> 01:58:48,160
Speaker 3: And this happens.

2548
01:58:48,280 --> 01:58:50,360
Speaker 2: The pictures of him that were released you can actually

2549
01:58:50,440 --> 01:58:54,000
Speaker 2: see redness on his wrists, so indicating that there was some.

2550
01:58:53,920 --> 01:58:56,200
Speaker 3: Restraint, that he was restrained in some plane.

2551
01:58:56,400 --> 01:58:58,480
Speaker 2: On the plane, that's the theory. There was a picture

2552
01:58:58,480 --> 01:59:00,720
Speaker 2: of him released that was in the car. We can

2553
01:59:00,760 --> 01:59:02,640
Speaker 2: put the next one up there too. From the New

2554
01:59:02,720 --> 01:59:05,800
Speaker 2: York Post. They say, inside the cartel coup once in

2555
01:59:05,840 --> 01:59:09,040
Speaker 2: a lifetime caper. This is the official theory of events,

2556
01:59:09,280 --> 01:59:12,720
Speaker 2: which is that basically, you know, he was lured on

2557
01:59:12,760 --> 01:59:15,400
Speaker 2: the plane by El Chappo's son in exchange for a

2558
01:59:15,440 --> 01:59:18,960
Speaker 2: deal that they struck with the with the I think

2559
01:59:19,000 --> 01:59:23,560
Speaker 2: it's a Homeland security investigations former DEA say, quote, based

2560
01:59:23,600 --> 01:59:26,200
Speaker 2: on my experience, it's very possible the brothers developed a

2561
01:59:26,240 --> 01:59:29,160
Speaker 2: plan to arrest and capture Elmyo with the help of

2562
01:59:29,240 --> 01:59:31,800
Speaker 2: law enforcement. In the United States, the drug business is dirty.

2563
01:59:31,800 --> 01:59:34,520
Speaker 2: People routinely turn on each other, Like when Almyo's son

2564
01:59:34,560 --> 01:59:37,720
Speaker 2: and brother testified against El Chapo. That's also could you know,

2565
01:59:37,840 --> 01:59:41,680
Speaker 2: definitely be revenge itself. I just don't know, you know,

2566
01:59:41,840 --> 01:59:44,680
Speaker 2: what's happening here. I do know that inside of Mexico

2567
01:59:44,800 --> 01:59:47,400
Speaker 2: they are very afraid that this will trigger a massive

2568
01:59:47,400 --> 01:59:50,920
Speaker 2: bloodbath in war for a lot of the territory that

2569
01:59:50,960 --> 01:59:54,280
Speaker 2: the Cineloa cartel had had controlled.

2570
01:59:54,520 --> 01:59:56,400
Speaker 3: Some of this is also you know, al Mayo.

2571
01:59:56,520 --> 01:59:58,440
Speaker 2: One of the reasons why the temperature has been turned

2572
01:59:58,480 --> 02:00:00,640
Speaker 2: up on him and El Choppo's is a lot of

2573
02:00:00,640 --> 02:00:03,800
Speaker 2: the fentanyl that they are responsible for bringing into the

2574
02:00:03,880 --> 02:00:04,440
Speaker 2: United States.

2575
02:00:04,560 --> 02:00:06,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's not like anyone has any hope that

2576
02:00:06,400 --> 02:00:08,440
Speaker 1: that's going to be reduced by these I mean that's.

2577
02:00:08,280 --> 02:00:08,960
Speaker 4: A part of why.

2578
02:00:09,520 --> 02:00:12,720
Speaker 1: It's like the Justice Department crow about it, and they'll

2579
02:00:13,000 --> 02:00:15,440
Speaker 1: be happy with their press release. And these are certainly

2580
02:00:15,440 --> 02:00:18,640
Speaker 1: men who deserve accountability and justice there, you know, there's

2581
02:00:18,840 --> 02:00:21,400
Speaker 1: no doubt about that. But in terms of actually impact

2582
02:00:21,440 --> 02:00:25,120
Speaker 1: on drug trafficking, there's no expectation this will diminish the

2583
02:00:25,160 --> 02:00:27,840
Speaker 1: flow and in fact, what I was reading is that

2584
02:00:27,880 --> 02:00:31,920
Speaker 1: the drug cartel organizations are not what they used to be.

2585
02:00:32,000 --> 02:00:36,000
Speaker 1: It's more like syndicates and almost like you know, franchisees.

2586
02:00:36,640 --> 02:00:38,880
Speaker 1: So there'll still be plenty of people to take the

2587
02:00:38,920 --> 02:00:40,640
Speaker 1: place in. What you're most likely to get is just

2588
02:00:40,680 --> 02:00:44,240
Speaker 1: like a spike in violence in the drug wars cartels

2589
02:00:44,960 --> 02:00:45,680
Speaker 1: spiking account.

2590
02:00:46,640 --> 02:00:48,520
Speaker 2: Again, why I want this thing to go to trial

2591
02:00:48,720 --> 02:00:51,400
Speaker 2: is the most interesting stuff that came out from the

2592
02:00:51,600 --> 02:00:53,120
Speaker 2: cho I don't care about the drug graphic.

2593
02:00:53,160 --> 02:00:55,000
Speaker 3: I mean I do. It's interesting and it's salacious.

2594
02:00:55,040 --> 02:00:58,440
Speaker 2: But the stuff about hey, you know Enrique Pignaneto, we

2595
02:00:58,480 --> 02:01:00,840
Speaker 2: gave them a hundred million dollars were like, wait, what

2596
02:01:01,360 --> 02:01:03,560
Speaker 2: the guy who lives in Spain, the former president. You

2597
02:01:03,560 --> 02:01:05,360
Speaker 2: paid him one hundred million and he showed up to

2598
02:01:05,400 --> 02:01:08,160
Speaker 2: your wedding. That's crazy? Or that, you know, if we'll

2599
02:01:08,160 --> 02:01:11,320
Speaker 2: forget the former defense Minister of Mexico was indicted on

2600
02:01:11,440 --> 02:01:12,600
Speaker 2: drug trafficking charges.

2601
02:01:12,720 --> 02:01:14,760
Speaker 3: He was the person who previously was in charge of

2602
02:01:14,880 --> 02:01:15,480
Speaker 3: the drug war.

2603
02:01:15,600 --> 02:01:18,720
Speaker 2: So what gets revealed is the high level political corruption.

2604
02:01:19,120 --> 02:01:22,560
Speaker 2: And there is no doubt that a man who is

2605
02:01:22,600 --> 02:01:25,760
Speaker 2: a high level cartel figure able to evade custody for

2606
02:01:25,800 --> 02:01:28,800
Speaker 2: three decades plus has not paid off a hell of

2607
02:01:28,840 --> 02:01:32,600
Speaker 2: a lot of politicians, probably including Texas politicians and border

2608
02:01:32,600 --> 02:01:33,960
Speaker 2: figures here in the US.

2609
02:01:34,040 --> 02:01:35,800
Speaker 3: And I want to hear everything there is to know

2610
02:01:35,840 --> 02:01:37,600
Speaker 3: about that, so that will be interesting.

2611
02:01:38,360 --> 02:01:41,320
Speaker 2: Plus, remember the theatrics of the Al Chapo trial. He

2612
02:01:41,480 --> 02:01:43,840
Speaker 2: was held in the mcc in Manhattan. Yeah, and they

2613
02:01:43,840 --> 02:01:46,320
Speaker 2: had just shut down everything because they were afraid that

2614
02:01:46,320 --> 02:01:48,400
Speaker 2: people were going to come and try and rescue him.

2615
02:01:48,440 --> 02:01:52,000
Speaker 3: So some of the security stuff, Yeah, he's just cravd. Yeah,

2616
02:01:52,080 --> 02:01:53,320
Speaker 3: I mean, remember he is.

2617
02:01:53,480 --> 02:01:56,040
Speaker 2: Look, these people have limitless resources. People are willing to

2618
02:01:56,080 --> 02:01:58,880
Speaker 2: kill and die for them. So this will it could

2619
02:01:58,880 --> 02:02:00,960
Speaker 2: be the trial of the centry. We'll see if he

2620
02:02:00,960 --> 02:02:03,800
Speaker 2: actually goes up against trial given what happened to El Chapo,

2621
02:02:04,120 --> 02:02:05,840
Speaker 2: I'm not sure I would because now you're gonna end

2622
02:02:05,840 --> 02:02:08,080
Speaker 2: your ass up in Supermax, which is what happened to him.

2623
02:02:08,280 --> 02:02:08,880
Speaker 3: So we'll see.

2624
02:02:09,000 --> 02:02:11,000
Speaker 2: All right, we have a great joke for everybody tomorrow,

2625
02:02:11,080 --> 02:02:11,960
Speaker 2: and we'll see you all then.