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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome all right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing. So I'm saying it's a cash touchdown that we

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Speaker 1: see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 1: to wind. That's incredible, big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate combine if you.

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Speaker 1: Want to pull. And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by Fandel. This

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Speaker 3: is your NFL Super wild Card weekend recap. I'm Brendan

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Speaker 3: glass Sheen, joined by Brandon Anderson.

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Speaker 1: Tonight, no Jill Gallant.

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Speaker 3: Jill has worked very hard this weekend over in the

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Speaker 3: new Action Network studio and he's making his way back

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Speaker 3: to his home in front of his bright, bright screen

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Speaker 3: where he does all of his great recordings.

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Speaker 1: Jill had a nice weekend on the Touchdown Show.

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Speaker 3: We'll get that shout out out there for him, and

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Speaker 3: we'll discuss some of the guys who scored as we

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Speaker 3: go through all six games from the weekend, the two Saturday,

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Speaker 3: three on Sunday, and then of course tonight Cowboys Buccaneers.

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Speaker 3: That one just wrapped up. Brandy, Let's not waste any time.

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Speaker 3: We'll dive right in Dallas beats Tampa thirty one to fourteen.

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Speaker 1: They cover the two and a half.

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Speaker 3: The three opened three two and a half most of

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Speaker 3: the week, then you saw three earlier today, and then

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Speaker 3: it went back to two and a half. So some

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Speaker 3: late money coming in on the Bucks. Uh, But Dallas

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Speaker 3: gets there and this was the This was the team

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Speaker 3: I think we saw most mostly early in the season. Defensively,

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Speaker 3: Micah Parsons was a force, and Dak Prescott turned in

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Speaker 3: one of his best performances of his career.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Dak got a huge game, looked very comfortable out there.

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Speaker 2: I think for me more importantly, this was the Bucks

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Speaker 2: team that we watched all season and look, I don't know,

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Speaker 2: we all three of us on the best episode took

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Speaker 2: the Bucks. Let's just own it up front. Personally for me,

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Speaker 2: I won't speak for the guys. My worst three of

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Speaker 2: the season. I don't know how I did this. How

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Speaker 2: did I dump on Tom Brady in the Bucks all

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Speaker 2: season long and get to the playoffs and then flip

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Speaker 2: to the other side. I am disgusted with the pick

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Speaker 2: and look early on, Cowboys get the touchdown and it

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Speaker 2: looked like the Bucks were going to respond. They got

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Speaker 2: down there, they get right down inside the five, and

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Speaker 2: then Tom Brady does the thing Tom Brady never does.

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Speaker 2: They do a play action and just like just throw

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Speaker 2: a bullet out the back of the end zone, right,

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Speaker 2: just throw it away. Nobody's open. I don't he like

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Speaker 2: lofted the ball halfway into the end zone, not even

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Speaker 2: really toward a target. I think they said on the broadcast.

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Speaker 2: First interception he's thrown in the red zone in his

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay career, something like first and four hundred passing attempts.

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Speaker 2: And I gotta say, at that point, I was like, oh,

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Speaker 2: we're in big trouble here. If you hat that play

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Speaker 2: from Tom Brady, I don't know if you're coming back.

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Speaker 2: And they didn't come back after.

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Speaker 1: That, No, they did not.

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Speaker 3: Now you still say to yourself, well, remember the Monday

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Speaker 3: night game against the Saints, the Sunday afternoon comeback against

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Speaker 3: the Rams. There have been spots this year where Brady's

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Speaker 3: led his team when they've done absolutely nothing. But yes,

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Speaker 3: the ball was moving for Tampa in response there. And yes,

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Speaker 3: the last time Brady threw an interception in the red

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Speaker 3: zones in twenty nineteen with New England. One of the

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Speaker 3: angles too from a betting perspective, the over forty five

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Speaker 3: and a half doesn't hit, which most of the game

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Speaker 3: you're probably thinking as an over better Yep, of course

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Speaker 3: of the sixth this weekend five overs, this one's going

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Speaker 3: to go under, and there was a chance there at

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Speaker 3: the end, but the.

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Speaker 1: Bucks found it too late.

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Speaker 3: Would you make though of Dak more specifically in that offense,

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Speaker 3: the way they just he was slicing and Dyson. I

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Speaker 3: was concerned about Tampa's lack of adjustments defensively, Todd Bowles,

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Speaker 3: you were a defensive mind.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, Tom Brady, we've done all the Tom Brady stuff.

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Speaker 2: Brady has all the career, Like I want to make

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Speaker 2: all the jokes. We've done the t bow thing on here.

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Speaker 2: I know you scoff at it. I've got all my

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Speaker 2: Tom jokes here. Honestly, the defense was more of a

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Speaker 2: joke tonight. Tampa's defense just didn't show and that was

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Speaker 2: for me. That was the read was, Okay, the defense

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Speaker 2: is healthy, the guys are back. Tampa's healthy defense has

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Speaker 2: been so good, and they just this entire team kind

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Speaker 2: of looked like, I don't know, like Tom gave a

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Speaker 2: speech before the game, was like all right, guys. So anyway,

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Speaker 2: I'm done in Tampa and let's all go have a game.

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Speaker 2: And they all kind of look like they did the

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Speaker 2: old one two three can kun before the game and

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Speaker 2: just never really showed up tonight. Like, honestly, I didn't

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Speaker 2: really feel like Dallas was doing anything that special. They

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Speaker 2: just kind of kept hitting the tight ends and look,

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Speaker 2: Zekiel Elliott ran thirteen times for twenty seven guards. That

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Speaker 2: was part of my cap. Dallas's with two run have

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Speaker 2: either run game wasn't that great. Pollard hit a couple,

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Speaker 2: but mostly that was happening there as well. And yeah,

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Speaker 2: at Dallas' offense, I think is going to come off

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Speaker 2: looking a little overrated here against just a defense that

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Speaker 2: was a pretty listless performance by Tampa. But you know,

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Speaker 2: you can't complain. Dallas did what they had to, and

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Speaker 2: they were fishing in the red zone four for four

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Speaker 2: getting in I think that helped the score flatter them

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Speaker 2: a little bit by the end of the game, but

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Speaker 2: then they gave up some of the garbage touchdowns. By

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Speaker 2: the way, I think you undersold the over miss for

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Speaker 2: betters here. Our man Brad Meyer missed four extra points four.

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Speaker 2: Have you ever seen someone miss four extra points before.

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Speaker 2: I live in Chicago, I don't watch the Bears all

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Speaker 2: the time. Of course, Cody Parky hit the upright four

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Speaker 2: times for the Bears in the same game, So this

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Speaker 2: is about is it more impressive to miss for or

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Speaker 2: to hit the four uprads? I don't know, but miss

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Speaker 2: four uprads four extra points all benels one one for

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Speaker 2: the over and then insult to injury, the Bucks get

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Speaker 2: that late touchdown. The game is like a million to

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Speaker 2: three at this point. Just kick the extra point and

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Speaker 2: get out of here. And then of course they go

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Speaker 2: for two and don't get that either, So pretty brutal.

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Speaker 2: If you had the over on this one, not much.

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Speaker 3: Else to pick apart this was a snoozer, and then

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Speaker 3: of course Tampa converts. Joe Buck said it only the

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Speaker 3: fourth on side kick that was successful this season at

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Speaker 3: the end of the game, and even still, there was

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Speaker 3: a ball that went through Mike Evans hands down the

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Speaker 3: right sideline that still could have helped over. Betters and

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Speaker 3: Maher did end up making an extra point in this game,

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Speaker 3: but Dak had three zero five passing the four touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: One rushing touchdown fell to Like you know, you mentioned

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Speaker 3: all those things about Tampa's defense being healthy. They were

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Speaker 3: on the field a ton they were probably tired.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so, though Tampa ran I believe eighty

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Speaker 2: plays themselves. Tom Brady through his age in passing attempts,

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Speaker 2: he had sixty six passes tonight. We hit the over

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Speaker 2: on that one. At least that was too off the

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Speaker 2: all time playoff record. But look, Tom, is what forty five,

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Speaker 2: forty six years old. You don't want this guy going

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Speaker 2: out throwing sixty six passes. You don't want anybody throwing

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Speaker 2: sixty six passes. I pulled up at Football Reference to

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Speaker 2: look for the record, and I believe eighteen of the

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Speaker 2: top twenty one most passing attempts in a playoff game

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Speaker 2: are in losses. Duh, because you're throwing the ball so

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Speaker 2: much because you're behind all games. So, just before we

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Speaker 2: hit recording came on Brendan. We listened to a little

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Speaker 2: bit of Tom Brady's postgame comments tonight. You're our Tom

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Speaker 2: Brady guy, so I'm gonna let you comment here. Is

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Speaker 2: this it for Tom and Tampa or where do the

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Speaker 2: bucks go from here?

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Speaker 1: Certainly sounded like it.

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Speaker 3: The way he spoke to the press and thanked the

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Speaker 3: press for their coverage, mentioned your job's not very easy.

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Speaker 3: We appreciate the hard work. Thank you to the regulars.

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Speaker 3: So very specific to the room, since it was indeed

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Speaker 3: to Tampa home game.

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Speaker 1: So that was the last thing he said. It was

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Speaker 1: not the first thing he said.

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Speaker 3: It was the last thing he said before he left

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Speaker 3: the podium. Tonight, San Francisco Seattle kicked off the weekend

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Speaker 3: on Saturday. Niners were laying nine and a half ten points.

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Speaker 3: There were some Nines out there, but this game was

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Speaker 3: back and forth, really between ten and nine and a half.

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Speaker 3: Felt like it mattered early in the game, Seattle hung

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Speaker 3: in there. Gino Smith, number one in completion percentage in

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Speaker 3: the regular season, has some rapport with DK Metcalf. Kenneth

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Speaker 3: Walker was running the ball well, and you wondered, oh,

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Speaker 3: maybe there's some actual pressure here on the quarterback brought

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Speaker 3: party and I think through some of our recap episodes

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Speaker 3: in December, having some of those more tightly contested games,

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Speaker 3: the Raiders game comes to mind proved to be beneficial

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Speaker 3: for Purdy. The seventh round pick comes out and has

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Speaker 3: another great game, but in real game situations where he

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Speaker 3: had to make plays and the Niners ended up smoking

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Speaker 3: the Seahawks forty one to twenty three.

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Speaker 1: They cover the spread. What jumped out to you here

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Speaker 1: in this game?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think what jumped out for me is Seattle

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Speaker 2: played near perfect football for forty two minutes. They had

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Speaker 2: no sacks, they had no turnovers, they had no penalties,

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Speaker 2: they had big plays DK metcalf owned in this game,

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Speaker 2: and they were behind twenty three seventeen after all that,

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Speaker 2: and then you may recall the perfect football ended right

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Speaker 2: about the moment when Deebo Samuel was down and I

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Speaker 2: forget who. It was, kind of like twisted the knee.

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Speaker 2: They didn't get a penalty for it, but just after

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Speaker 2: that they picked up a penalty they were in the

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Speaker 2: red zone, Gino got the patented Gino stripsack, holding the

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Speaker 2: ball too long like he's done all year, and then

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Speaker 2: suddenly barrage of penalties and interception and the back half

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Speaker 2: of the game was basically every forty nine Ers game

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Speaker 2: we watched the last two months. So if you're Seattle,

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Speaker 2: I'll only be too upset about this. Like, you had

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Speaker 2: a great year, you played a pretty good game, much

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Speaker 2: better than they played them the first two times around.

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Speaker 2: How you bring back gin now you got the number

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Speaker 2: five pick. Maybe Gino Mentor is a young quarterback. There

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Speaker 2: you build on a young roster. I think for Seattle Island,

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Speaker 2: this is about the best season finale you can hope for. Here.

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Speaker 2: The Naners just too good. They are ten point three

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Speaker 2: yards after the catch per catch in this game, which

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Speaker 2: is the third highest in a playoff game in the

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Speaker 2: last decade. That's Depot, that's Christian McCaffrey. We didn't really

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Speaker 2: get much from George Kittle in this game. They just

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Speaker 2: didn't need it. They just rolled. They have so many

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Speaker 2: weapons that one takeaway that's a little bit hesitant here.

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Speaker 2: You noted Rock Purty had another big game. By stats

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Speaker 2: he did were in thirty two yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions,

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Speaker 2: eleven yards per attempt from the eye test. I don't

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Speaker 2: feel great about him early on, especially, I felt like

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Speaker 2: he was making some questionable decisions. Got he held a

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Speaker 2: ball though much, got some Patrick Mahomes syndrome. He's kind

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Speaker 2: of scrambled a little too much running around trying to

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Speaker 2: do the Brett Favre thing and make up some plays.

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Speaker 2: The whole point of all the San Francisco offense and

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Speaker 2: all the weapons is to not do that right. We

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Speaker 2: don't need you to be Brett Favre. Just get the

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Speaker 2: ball out to our other guys, Brock Perdy. That worries

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Speaker 2: me a little bit as we get to some real

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Speaker 2: defenses now, which Seattle is not.

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Speaker 3: And the defense they'll play next, which will break down

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Speaker 3: more depth. But if Dallas is going to play like

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Speaker 3: that defensively, it could be the toughest test he's had

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Speaker 3: to face this season in terms of that front and

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Speaker 3: what kind of pressure they can put on.

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Speaker 2: We still need to kind of see brock Purdy what

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Speaker 2: he looks like these next couple of games against Dallas

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Speaker 2: and then presumably Philadelphia, some real test coming up that

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Speaker 2: he isn't faced yet.

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Speaker 3: Chargers Jags was the game after that Saturday night and

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Speaker 3: what a freaking game? Want to come back that was?

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Speaker 3: Or was it more of a meltdown? Like for being honest,

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Speaker 3: thirty one to thirty Jags. You know by now they

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Speaker 3: covered two and a half. They went outright if.

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Speaker 1: You jumped in on the Jaguars live good for youth.

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Speaker 1: End of the.

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Speaker 3: Third, early fourth, earlier in the game when it was

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Speaker 3: still a four score, three score game, Good for you.

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Speaker 3: The Jags make the comeback down twenty seven to nothing.

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Speaker 3: But for the Chargers, I just to kind of recap

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Speaker 3: it from start to finish.

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Speaker 1: No, Mike Williams. Turns out Brandon Staley was pushing.

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Speaker 3: All the right buttons. They look like a force and

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Speaker 3: they made Trevor Lawrence look horrible.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a tale of two halves plus one

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Speaker 2: drive right, because the Jaguars did get the touchdown right

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Speaker 2: before halftime. But before that, Lawrence comes out first pass

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Speaker 2: of his playoff career interception. He never thrown a first

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Speaker 2: quarter interception. He throws three three first quarter interceptions. At

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Speaker 2: this point, I think all of us are like, all right,

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Speaker 2: it hit the fast forward button, like simulate to end.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to be here anymore. This isn't even

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Speaker 2: fun to watch. It's the it's the Jaguars meltdown. It's

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Speaker 2: the young team. Okay, it happened. We got after the

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Speaker 2: fourth interception three by Sante Samuel Junior, we got a

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Speaker 2: punt bouncing off of a dude's helmet coming inside the ten.

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Speaker 2: And then that was kind of the key because I

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Speaker 2: think it was twenty four to nothing when that happened.

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Speaker 2: Chargers to get the ball on the six and like

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Speaker 2: they had done other times this game, they didn't punch

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Speaker 2: it in. They get the field goal, settled for two

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Speaker 2: field goals inside the ten, twenty seven nothing And up

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Speaker 2: until that point here's Trevor Lawrence's numbers. Five of eighteen

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Speaker 2: thirty five yards so under two yards of pass, four interceptions,

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Speaker 2: twenty nine percent completion rate. Then they get a little

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Speaker 2: rhythm on that next drive, they punch it in for

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Speaker 2: the touchdown twenty seven to seven, and suddenly you're like,

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Speaker 2: you know, what, one points is not so bad considering

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Speaker 2: that half of football. Right, here's Lawrence's stats after that

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Speaker 2: settling for field goal twenty three of twenty nine two

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty three yards eight point seven yards attempt,

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Speaker 2: seventy nine percent completion rate in set up, four interceptions,

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Speaker 2: four touchdowns. So he went from negative negative one point

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Speaker 2: three to three EPA per play, which is like ungodly,

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Speaker 2: ghastly unheard of low, to zero point seven five EPA

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Speaker 2: per play, which is basically what Dak Prescott was tonight

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Speaker 2: for reference. So you can't have a more night and

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Speaker 2: day performance than that. Yeah, my early notes were Randon

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Speaker 2: Staley masterclass like he had Lawrence fooled. Lawrence has thrown

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Speaker 2: it to straight to Chargers defenders. He's moving guys around

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Speaker 2: before the snap, and then it just suddenly flipped. So, yeah,

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Speaker 2: you kind of alluded to this. What's your opinion, comeback

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Speaker 2: or collapse?

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Speaker 1: Collapse? That wasn't an all time great team.

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Speaker 3: I think the quarterback proved and Trevor Lawrence that he

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Speaker 3: is the real deal and they've got some real chemistry

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Speaker 3: there between he and Doug Peterson.

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Speaker 1: But let's not fool ourselves here.

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Speaker 3: This Chargers defense now could were they as healthy as possible? No,

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Speaker 3: because of what we had discussed leading into the game

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Speaker 3: about how they managed that Denver game. But all in all,

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Speaker 3: I would I would have I consider more of a collapse.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that's a there's really no excuse there. I

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Speaker 3: thought that as much as we want to make it about,

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Speaker 3: I don't put a lot of blame of it Brandon

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Speaker 3: on the offense, because I think they did there do

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Speaker 3: They scored thirty points in the game, But defensively, Brandon Staley,

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Speaker 3: that's his side of the ball, and they completely fell

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Speaker 3: apart in coverage in all of it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well I made note of that too, that here

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Speaker 2: are times where the Chargers could have just made just

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Speaker 2: one stop one time, and I think that the game

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Speaker 2: is just over four or half. As the Jags are driving.

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Speaker 2: All you gotta do is just just keep them out

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Speaker 2: of the end zone, right, just keep it in front

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Speaker 2: of you instead of giving up a touchdown. With I

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Speaker 2: think like twenty five seconds left, there's one chance. And

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Speaker 2: then in the second half we got a third and

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Speaker 2: goal from the six Jaguars get a touchdown, that's another chance.

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Speaker 2: We got the two point conversion, the one where Joey

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Speaker 2: Bosa had the penalty. They get it down the one.

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Speaker 2: Laurence just like reaches the ball out like the space

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Speaker 2: jam Michael Jordan, Right, there's another one stop that one.

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Speaker 2: You're good. Then, of course with a fourth and one

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Speaker 2: play that they get all up on the line, Doug

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Speaker 2: Peterson sees something, calls tim out, they switch, they give

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Speaker 2: it to at ten with so much speed, gets around

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Speaker 2: the edge. Again, one stop any one of those. Heck,

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Speaker 2: the final field goal almost missed. Nobody really talked about it.

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Speaker 2: They nearly missed that field goal that would have done

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Speaker 2: the trick too. So yeah, the defense has to make

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Speaker 2: the plays there. I think one thing that get overlooked

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Speaker 2: in a lot of the analysis that I've seen. The

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Speaker 2: Argers really got some cluster injuries, like you mentioned the

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Speaker 2: Mike Williams injury, But Deander Carter went out and suddenly

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Speaker 2: they're like outer receivers in this game. The backup left

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Speaker 2: tackle went out and they're already short Rayshawn Slater. So

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Speaker 2: it doesn't help that the offense can't stay on the

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Speaker 2: field because then they're just going three and out and

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Speaker 2: giving the ball back and here comes Trevor Lawrence again.

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Speaker 2: So that's nobody's fault. Well, it's maybe Staley's fault a

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Speaker 2: little bit because you know Mike Williams. But yeah, so

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Speaker 2: the Staly thing first team ever to lose with a

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Speaker 2: plus five turnover differential, only the second team even with

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Speaker 2: a plus four turnover differential to do. So I've dumped

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Speaker 2: on the offensive coordinaire. He he please God, he has

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Speaker 2: to be gone. What do you do with Brandon Stalely

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Speaker 2: is in my notes? My answer says, fire Stalely into

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Speaker 2: the sun. Do we think that Staley is gone? Do

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Speaker 2: we think he's around? Where do we go? Famire with

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Speaker 2: the Chargers? Oh boy?

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Speaker 3: The no longer a hot take. If you say move

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Speaker 3: on from Staley. Look, Sean Payton's out there, man, and

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Speaker 3: Sean Payton delegates. Sean Payton's won at the highest level.

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Speaker 3: He's won a Super Bowl. You better hurry too, because

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Speaker 3: he's taken interviews this week. Sean Payton was vocal about

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Speaker 3: that on this Monday that he is. He's interviewing. So

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Speaker 3: if you miss your chance, that might be someone who

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Speaker 3: and Peyton will, no question.

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Speaker 1: Take a look at it. He lives in Los Angeles.

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Speaker 3: He would get the quarterback in Justin Herbert, that's all

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Speaker 3: taken care of, has plenty of skill guys to work with,

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Speaker 3: and he has the track record of delegating properly. So

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Speaker 3: I think there's a better option out there, which to me,

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Speaker 3: Sean Payton, is you.

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Speaker 1: Make the move. I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I just don't understand how they could move on and

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Speaker 3: be feel okay about how that all transpired. I can't

358
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Speaker 3: get Week eighteen last year against the Raiders out of

359
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Speaker 3: my head going forward at their own thirty doesn't feel

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Speaker 3: like he has an identity as a coach.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really not the way you want to leave

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Speaker 2: things hanging heading to your off season. Two years in

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Speaker 2: a row, right, this is not how you want to

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Speaker 2: end things. I think this, if we see that Staley

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Speaker 2: has been let go, if they've mutually parted a ways,

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Speaker 2: or whatever they decide to come up with, I think

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Speaker 2: that will happen if and only if Sean Payton is done,

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Speaker 2: If they know that he's coming already, then I think

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Speaker 2: we get the news. Otherwise, I don't think it happens,

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Speaker 2: and they just keep riding with them, but hopefully with

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Speaker 2: the new offensive coordinator and a few new ideas.

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Speaker 3: Dustin Herbert has been in this league now for just

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Speaker 3: a couple of years, but now his second half ATS

374
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Speaker 3: record ATS record is now fourteen thirty one and four.

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Speaker 3: He went five ten and two in the second half

376
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Speaker 3: against the spread this year.

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Speaker 1: Poor guy.

378
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Speaker 3: Really hard to nitpick what the quarterback did in this game,

379
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Speaker 3: but yeah, that's that was an epic finish and gave

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Speaker 3: us a lot.

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Speaker 1: To talk about.

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Speaker 3: It's some really hot takes before went to bed, eating

383
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Speaker 3: into Sunday's games Miami and Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: Well, this one I think was the shocker in terms

385
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Speaker 1: of was it gonna be all that close?

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Speaker 3: At least with Seattle and in San Francisco, you could

387
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Speaker 3: paint the picture, paved the path to think, Okay, maybe

388
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Speaker 3: Seattle hangs around understandable.

389
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Speaker 1: Buffalo goes up fourteen.

390
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Speaker 3: To nothing in the first quarter, and you're thinking, okay,

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Speaker 3: that's a wrap, this one is this one's over. And

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Speaker 3: then the concerns about the Bills and their erratic style

393
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:37,320
Speaker 3: of play, those habits became noticeable and came to fruition

394
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Speaker 3: that allowed Skyler Thompson and the Miami Dolphins to hang around.

395
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Speaker 3: Bills win thirty four to thirty one. Dolphins covered the

396
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Speaker 3: Giant thirteen and a half points spread. I can't help

397
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Speaker 3: but come out of this game, Brandon, and I know

398
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Speaker 3: again we're gonna look to him. We're gonna do a

399
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Speaker 3: hot read breakdown of all four games next week. But

400
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Speaker 3: I look at this and go, yeah, Buffalo is really

401
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Speaker 3: damn good and explosive, and they're great when they are

402
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Speaker 3: at their best.

403
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Speaker 1: They're the best team in.

404
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Speaker 3: The league, probably right up there at least with San Francisco.

405
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Speaker 3: But I would take the quarterback, of course in Buffalo.

406
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Speaker 3: But I've got I can't help but come out of

407
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:11,120
Speaker 3: there and go, Oh, the Bills, they just they don't

408
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Speaker 3: know how to like put a team away.

409
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think this is the Josh Allen show. Right,

410
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:19,919
Speaker 2: I think this is just what we're gonna get with

411
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Speaker 2: Josh Allen. It is the highest of highs. When he

412
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Speaker 2: is doing the Josh Allen things, they can beat anybody

413
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Speaker 2: because the defense can be great, the special teams is good,

414
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Speaker 2: the coaching is good, and when Josh does good stuff, man,

415
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Speaker 2: can they just score instantly? But then look, in this game,

416
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Speaker 2: he had two interceptions, he lost a fumble, a strip

417
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Speaker 2: sack on the first Bills play a second half that

418
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 2: led to a touchdown in a Miami lead, and suddenly

419
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 2: it's like, oh man, they might actually lose. He got

420
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Speaker 2: sacked seven times. Sacks are a quarterback stat. Got to

421
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Speaker 2: get the ball away, throw it out of bounds, move

422
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 2: on to the next play. Josh Allen doesn't do that.

423
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:07,639
Speaker 2: Josh Allen is superman and tries to do everything. And

424
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 2: the thing is he can and he usually does, like

425
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,480
Speaker 2: this is gonna come off Slanders and I already hear it.

426
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,360
Speaker 2: We know I'm the Carson Wentz guy, right, Carson Awantz.

427
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 2: The thing he does is he tries to do everything,

428
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 2: and he holds the ball way too long, and he

429
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 2: eats sacks and he takes interceptions and then he gets

430
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,719
Speaker 2: hurt too because he's getting sacks so much. Josh Allen

431
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 2: does those things. It's just that he's so good that

432
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:37,440
Speaker 2: he makes plays anyway. Josh Allen's EPA per play under

433
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Speaker 2: pressure is like zero point one, and by comparison, the

434
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:45,720
Speaker 2: next highest guy in the league is negative, like just

435
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 2: throw the ball away and move on to the next play.

436
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,359
Speaker 2: But Josh Allen still wants to do positive things and

437
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 2: usually does. You're just gonna get the roller coaster. He

438
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 2: had a sixteen point zero A dot in this game.

439
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 2: He was chucking all over the field in a game

440
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 2: where you're facing Skyler Thompson. Just take care of business

441
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 2: and get out of here. I mean, look, here's the

442
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 2: numbers from the game. If you just skip the game. Yeah,

443
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 2: it was a blowout. We don't need to worry about it.

444
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:18,399
Speaker 2: Bill's Dolphins, easygo here. Dolphins were four of sixteen on

445
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 2: third down. That's terrible to Dolphins average three point three

446
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 2: yards of play two hundred and thirty one yards, almost

447
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:30,439
Speaker 2: two hundred yards less than the Bills. That should be

448
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,919
Speaker 2: a blowout. You should win that game by twenty in

449
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 2: the playoffs against a third string quarterback. On the one hand,

450
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:42,399
Speaker 2: you did win. You won the game. You moved on

451
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:46,120
Speaker 2: survive in advance. If you make ten mistakes literally ten

452
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 2: seven sacks, two picks in a fumble, ten mistakes by

453
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 2: your quarterback, a strip sack touchdown, and then you still win,

454
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:58,400
Speaker 2: that's good. Buffalo needs to just three more, three more

455
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 2: wins in your champions You know that the Chargers are out.

456
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 2: Some teams can't make those mistakes, so that's good. But man,

457
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,360
Speaker 2: I don't think we want to be get seven sacks

458
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:14,119
Speaker 2: and three turnovers. I get inst the Bengals, not against

459
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, not a super Bowl. So yeah, can the

460
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 2: Josh Allen experience win the Super Bowl? This way? Like

461
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 2: this is Josh Allen to me? In this game showed

462
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 2: why he is right now the most valuable player in

463
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 2: the NFL. But not in a good way. He's too valuable.

464
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 2: He's everything and you get all of it right.

465
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 3: They feel very Josh Allen reliant. I thought James Cook

466
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 3: broke some nice runs in this game. But to your point,

467
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 3: like this is why you should be nervous about being

468
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 3: a Buffalo futures better because this is what might come

469
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:54,439
Speaker 3: out of this.

470
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 1: Right.

471
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,439
Speaker 3: As folks might think, oh Buffalo, they just kind of

472
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 3: overlooked Skylert. No, I don't think they overlook Skyler Thompson

473
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 3: at all. It's just it's their style of play that

474
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 3: bites them.

475
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 1: You don't.

476
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't want to dive too much into

477
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:10,440
Speaker 3: the narrative or know what it feels like to be

478
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 3: inside the helmet, inside the locker room. But I think

479
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:18,120
Speaker 3: these guys are out there playing especially Buffalo inspired than

480
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 3: ever with the Hamlin story, and they're out there giving it.

481
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 1: They're all. I don't think they're overlooking anything.

482
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 3: It's just their style of play, and they get into

483
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 3: situations where they think they're just too big for themselves.

484
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 3: They beat They're the classic case of beating themselves. And

485
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:36,640
Speaker 3: I don't know if Sean McDermott knows how to get

486
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 3: that out of him or almost McDermott is leaning too

487
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 3: much into it and he doesn't know how to pull

488
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 3: it back.

489
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 1: So the Bills, it feels like they're running. They're out running.

490
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 3: Themselves at this stage. So we'll find out how we

491
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 3: feel about that when we get to the game.

492
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 1: When they play the.

493
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 3: Bengals Giants and your Vikings Giants win thirty one to

494
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 3: twenty four. They went outright as three point underdogs.

495
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: This one. I thought of you a lot because I'm like, well,

496
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 1: Brandon's onto it.

497
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 3: Man take six and a half Giants plus six and

498
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,880
Speaker 3: a half on one side of the game. I'm gonna

499
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 3: take the Giants on the other side plus six and

500
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:13,160
Speaker 3: a half. Just have a one score finish that parlay

501
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 3: over on FanDuel was at plus one thirty three odds,

502
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 3: and I'm thinking, this is this is a really good idea.

503
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 3: I like this idea by Brandon. I'm like, oh boy,

504
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:27,159
Speaker 3: oh boy. The Giants won by seven, not six, and

505
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:32,119
Speaker 3: the Vikings didn't win period. Daniel Jones, you're sam sensing

506
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 3: a theme here in the NFC East. These quarterbacks finally

507
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 3: had some of their best games ever, their best playoff

508
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 3: games ever, and Daniel Jones was dynamite with his legs

509
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 3: in the first half. Adjustments made by the Vikings. But

510
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones, it's like he knew that was coming, meaning, Okay,

511
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 3: I'm not going to be able to run the way

512
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 3: I did for seventy plus yards in the first half.

513
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 3: I'm gonna sit back, take the take the accurate, or

514
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 3: take the easy throw underneath, or just hit my guys

515
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 3: on the slant route and we move from there. Saquon's

516
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 3: a weapon, no name receivers catching passes for the Giants.

517
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 3: This this felt like the Giants ten years ago.

518
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 2: Yeah it did? You sound it up? Well, this one's

519
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 2: hard for me to talk about. This was pain for me. Look,

520
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 2: you mentioned the six and a half point thing either

521
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 2: direction that we missed by half point. I had Giants

522
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,880
Speaker 2: to win by one to six. We missed that by

523
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 2: one point. And then, of course, after all that, I

524
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 2: can't get my stupid team to win or even push

525
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 2: it overtime. Just paying as a better paying as a fan.

526
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 2: Defense optional in this game. Like, we're gonna be excited

527
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 2: about all the offensive things the Giants did, and we should.

528
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 2: They were really good, but their defense wasn't really doing

529
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 2: a whole lot either. Everyone's gonna talk and already has

530
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 2: been talking about the Kirk Cousins throw at the end. YEP,

531
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 2: I need to do it. Kirk Cousins was fantastic the

532
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,400
Speaker 2: rest of the game. Kirk Cousins made great throws all game.

533
00:27:55,920 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 2: He is absolutely not the reason the Vikings lost this game.

534
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 2: Kirk does not play defense, and neither did the rest

535
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,120
Speaker 2: of the Vikings, and I thought more than anything else,

536
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,199
Speaker 2: this was a coaching win. I thought Brian Dable and

537
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 2: Wi Martin Dale won this game for the Giants. They

538
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:16,679
Speaker 2: had Danny Dimes running out seventeen times for seventy eight yards.

539
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 2: That was by design. They knew that was something that

540
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 2: would be available to them. They took it. They schemed

541
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 2: up receivers no one's ever heard of a few months ago,

542
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 2: wide open all game long in Minnesota. Their defensive adjustments nothing.

543
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 2: The offensively was really disappointing. Justin Jefferson four catches for

544
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 2: thirty one yards on the first drive, three catches the

545
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 2: whole game after that for sixteen yards. They totally took

546
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 2: him away. Hockinson was open all game. We at least

547
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 2: got that over. Hopefully you got that one in there.

548
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 2: But the Vikings they ran too much on first down.

549
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 2: All my Vikings fan friends are texting me like, oh

550
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 2: my gosh, please stop running on first down. The Giants

551
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 2: are the worst defense in the league by DVA on

552
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 2: first down, and the Viking just kept being like, that's fine,

553
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 2: we don't need a first down. How about second eight.

554
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 2: Let's try that now, right. It was maddening. Dexter Lawrence

555
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 2: has to be mentioned here. I thought he was the

556
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 2: best player on the field for the Giants, just absolutely

557
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 2: dominated on the line, dominated that last play that the

558
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins throw, and the Giants on third down we're

559
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 2: great too. Daniel Jones was fantastic in this game. So, yeah,

560
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 2: the Viking season is done. We did technically get another

561
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 2: one score game here. That bet didn't hit, but we

562
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 2: did get another Vikings Giants one score game. If you're

563
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,479
Speaker 2: in neutral, it was fun, right, it was fun to watch.

564
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 2: I didn't have a lot of fun. I'm glad it's over.

565
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 2: Don't cry because it's over, Smile because it happened, right.

566
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 2: That's just that's every Viking season for me. So here

567
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 2: we are.

568
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 3: In our best Bets episode leading into the weekend, Luke

569
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 3: Swayne said of the Minnesota Vikings, they are good fantasy

570
00:29:58,560 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 3: football players, but.

571
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 1: They're not good at football.

572
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 3: And I thought his analysis was actually good in a way.

573
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 3: You get the flash with Cousins the year he had

574
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 3: on offense, justin Jefferson, and to your point, that wasn't

575
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 3: really on them. It was just folks get so sucked

576
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 3: into that that they don't look at the whole operation.

577
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 3: And defensively, as we came to find out. But the

578
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 3: minus three point differential, the Vikings just weren't all that good.

579
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 3: All right, Let's wrap quickly with Baltimore Cincinnati. I know

580
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 3: this game was full of big moments, also, the crazy touchdown,

581
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 3: the defensive score after Huntley reaches over. I'm watching it

582
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 3: in real time. I'm thinking, oh, my goodness, he may

583
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 3: have been in. He wasn't even close. Tyler Huntley wasn't

584
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 3: even close of being into the end zone. Sam Hobbard

585
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 3: Cincinnati kid Mike Erico excellent calls and play by play guy.

586
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 3: I was like, Wow, Durico crushed it. Great play, runs

587
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 3: it back the other way for a touchdown, change the

588
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 3: whole game. John Harbaugh over from a Gambley perspective. John

589
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 3: harbob the trend of divisional unders in these spots that

590
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 3: the underdog or underdogs not unders. Divisional underdogs, for Harbaugh

591
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 3: had not trended well in any in any situation, regular

592
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 3: season or playoffs. Against the AFC North, He's had his

593
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 3: struggles covering against the number.

594
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 1: Now, to be fair, the Ravens are typically.

595
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 3: A good team, so he's probably been a favorite in

596
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 3: a lot of these cases.

597
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 1: They were dogs and.

598
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 3: The Ravens covered plus eight and a half, nine nine

599
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 3: and a half, whatever, you got twenty four to seventeen

600
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 3: your final do you come out of this now? You

601
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 3: know we talk now Bengals will play the Bills, and

602
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 3: we'll get into that. But you leave this game thinking, Okay,

603
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 3: good win, Bengals, you did it.

604
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 2: But yeah, now this was not a good win. This

605
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 2: was the Bengals. Should have lost. The Bengals straight up

606
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 2: should have lost this game. Joe Burrow two hundred nine yards.

607
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 2: They did not run the ball well. They only had

608
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 2: two hundred and thirty four yards as a team. They

609
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 2: gave up three hundred and sixty four yards to Tyler

610
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 2: Huntley in the gang. That's not great. The game, the

611
00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 2: entire game was literally the game script the Ravens would

612
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 2: have drawn up. Right up until that play that you

613
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 2: talked about, everything was Ravens football until Tyler Huntley decided

614
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 2: to Raffiki stretch Simba over the goal line and just

615
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 2: go back the other direction. The win probability models basically said,

616
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 2: like a fifty percent win probability swing on that play,

617
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 2: Ravens are going to go up twenty four to seventeen

618
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 2: if they get the touchdown there and City go down

619
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 2: twenty four to seventeen. It is a fourteen point swing

620
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter of a playoff game. You literally

621
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 2: can't get a bigger win probability swing than that, and

622
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 2: that's it. That's the season. So for the Bengals, you

623
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 2: can't feel great about it again surviving advance. And look,

624
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 2: they had some ugly wins last year in the playoffs,

625
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 2: so maybe that's the thing. Maybe they are finding ways

626
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 2: to move on. My takeaway for Cincinnati is I'm worried

627
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 2: about the line. Jonah Williams left tackle, left hurd in

628
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 2: this game. That is the third game in a row

629
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 2: for them. They have lost a starter on the line.

630
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 2: Now we've got Alex Kappa the right guard. He may

631
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 2: or may not play. Williams may or may not play.

632
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 2: Lal Collins the right tackle, we know is out. The

633
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 2: whole thing with Cincinnati last year in the playoffs was

634
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 2: terrible line. We got to get it fixed. These are

635
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 2: the fixes and that is a big problem going forward.

636
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 2: Eli Apple at corner was in and out. They're already

637
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 2: missing a Woozier cluster. Injuries are the underrated injury thing.

638
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 2: We always focus on the one guy the star that

639
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 2: gets hurt. Cluster injuries at the same position our big problem,

640
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 2: and we'll get to the high rate. I know in

641
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 2: a second, I grab Buffalo minus three and a half

642
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 2: right when it first came out on Sunday evening, just

643
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 2: because if those guys are out, then that is a big,

644
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 2: big problem for Cincinnati against Buffalo and against anyone going forward.

645
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 3: I tend to agree. We've seen the number bounce to

646
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 3: five and a half in some places. It's four and

647
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 3: a half now on Fandel Well dive in now to

648
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 3: the divisional hot read four games, two Saturday, two Sunday.

649
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 3: The lineup is this, in case you didn't know. Jags

650
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 3: Chiefs is the first game at four to thirty Saturday.

651
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 3: Chiefs are laying eight and a half totals fifty one

652
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,720
Speaker 3: and a half. Giants Eagles seven and a half. Eagles

653
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 3: favorite of course over under at forty eight and a half.

654
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 3: Sunday at three Bengals Bills is mentioned four and a

655
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 3: half totals at fifty and a half. Cowboys Niners totals

656
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 3: up to now forty six, and the Niners are four

657
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:31,319
Speaker 3: point favorites. Your favorite of the four happens to be

658
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 3: the first one.

659
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 2: It does, and it's because I dug into some of

660
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:36,839
Speaker 2: the trends. I've got a piece up at the Action

661
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 2: Network now divisional round trends. So if you're like me,

662
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 2: you look at these games, and here we have the

663
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 2: four best teams in football. They're the home teams, right.

664
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 2: We got the Eagles and the Niners. We got the Bills,

665
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 2: we got the Chiefs, two of them offa by most years,

666
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 2: until the last couple of years, all of them off

667
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 2: of by right, they'd all just have been resting, right,

668
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 2: And all of your instinct screams, all right, Eagles, role Chiefs, roll.

669
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 2: These are easy. We know who's good. They're just going

670
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 2: to take care of business. And all the numbers in

671
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 2: Battle Labs tell us that the exact opposite is what happens.

672
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 2: Here are a couple numbers for you. Road underdogs in

673
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 2: the divisional round since two thousand and three, which is

674
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,760
Speaker 2: what our system covers. Road underdogs are forty two thirty

675
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 2: three and one against the spread in this round fifty

676
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:27,799
Speaker 2: six percent cover rate. Just playing every road underdog gets

677
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 2: you there. Road underdog money lines twenty one percent ROI

678
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 2: just playing blindly every single road underdog. It gets worse.

679
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 2: One seeds just the one seed in the divisional round,

680
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:44,840
Speaker 2: so still off of the buy thirteen twenty five and

681
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 2: a one against the spread thirty four percent cover rate.

682
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,359
Speaker 2: One seeds that are favored by ten or less, which

683
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 2: both one seeds are this year eight twenty four and

684
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 2: a one against the spread twenty five percent cover rate.

685
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 2: It's bad. The numbers are very bad, and the trends

686
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 2: basically say, holy cow, be careful with every single one

687
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 2: of the four home teams this round. Right now, I

688
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 2: think the Jaguars plus eight and a half in Kansas City.

689
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 2: I can't believe it. My Howry last week was fading

690
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 2: the Jaguars. But it's a matchup league. I like the

691
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:25,800
Speaker 2: matchup for Jacksonville. Here. What we know about them is

692
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 2: two things. Number one, the defense has been improving and

693
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 2: the pass rush is really really good. Right Kansas City's

694
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 2: offense is awesome, but the one bugaboo that they have

695
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 2: had sometimes is that line. They still struggle with pass

696
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 2: with pass blocking a little bit. And so if the

697
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 2: Jaguars can get home a little bit just enough maybe

698
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,319
Speaker 2: to cause a turnover, maybe to cause a couple of

699
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 2: punts or something, and still Mahomes. They're gonna score, but

700
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 2: just get home enough. And the Chiefs defense really is

701
00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 2: pretty untested. This season hasn't been that great. I think

702
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 2: the Chiefs defense against this red hot wherever Lawrence offense,

703
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 2: their passing is very good. In a lot of ways.

704
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:11,359
Speaker 2: The Jaguars are kind of a mini version of the Chiefs, right,

705
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 2: Lawrence is not Mahomes. The defense is like, it's not

706
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 2: the same, but they're kind of the same. We just

707
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 2: want to pass on you and rush our path or

708
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,520
Speaker 2: russ our pass rush and try to get home. And

709
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 2: I hate to say it, but in the playoffs, maybe

710
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 2: Doug Peterson over Andy Reid, Like, is that crazy? I

711
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 2: know Andy is a Hall of Famer and his guy's

712
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 2: ring and everything, But Doug Peterson is six and zero

713
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 2: against the spread as an underdog in the playoffs, and

714
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 2: you know, I think he has a good chance to

715
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:45,359
Speaker 2: get another cover here. He's five and one outright in

716
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 2: those games as an underdog. Pat Mahomes, we know, as

717
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 2: a favorite over touchdown all is not always a good

718
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 2: spot to fade there. I like the Jaguars here. Am

719
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 2: I crazy on this one?

720
00:37:57,239 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 3: I have two thoughts on this. A from a gambling perspective,

721
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 3: knowing that the public money might come in on the Chiefs,

722
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 3: do you wait, why take the eight and a half now?

723
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 3: Or do you fear that it could drop to seven and.

724
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 2: A half now? That's fair. This is probably not a

725
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 2: hot read per se, in that I have not put

726
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 2: in my bet on this one yet. I did my

727
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 2: analysis today. This is almost certainly the side I will beyond.

728
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:21,879
Speaker 2: But you're right, I think that there is a very

729
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,840
Speaker 2: good chance, at the very least for teaser protection. I

730
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 2: think we get to nine to nine and a half,

731
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:29,720
Speaker 2: we probably get to ten. So I think you probably

732
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 2: don't need to rush and grab this one, and you

733
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 2: might get a better line later on. Yeah, so that's

734
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 2: a good point. Not a traditional hot read here, but

735
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 2: for now, if I was going to make a bet

736
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 2: right now on the board, I think this is probably

737
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 2: the one that I'd be looking at.

738
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 3: Okay, my second thought would be when they've played the Jaguars,

739
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 3: they've played a good team, even the Chargers game, they

740
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 3: get behind to good teams quickly.

741
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 1: Dallas fourteen to.

742
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 3: Nothing out of the shoot if I remember correctly, unless

743
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 3: they yes, Dallas had a big lead in that game,

744
00:39:05,560 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 3: twenty one to seven at one point.

745
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 1: Baltimore, Remember the Baltimore game.

746
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 3: They had that game just well, that was the Ravens

747
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 3: once again blowing a second half, which.

748
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 1: That became a theme for them.

749
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 3: But Jaggs contributed to that and had to make a

750
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 3: pull something out out of their keysters and make a

751
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:24,359
Speaker 3: comeback there. The Chiefs game they lost by ten. They

752
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:26,759
Speaker 3: met in the regular season, Kansas City got out to

753
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:32,760
Speaker 3: an early lead. I'm concerned you're looking at a backdoor

754
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:35,439
Speaker 3: situation here, Brandon. That's what you really you're hoping for here,

755
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 3: probably if I had to guess, yeah.

756
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 2: I mean I think that that's very much in the play.

757
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 2: But look, the trends in history is say Jackson will

758
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:44,920
Speaker 2: be live to actually win this game out right, then

759
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 2: I will probably end up if I bet this. When

760
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 2: I bet this, I will probably end up playing some

761
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:54,359
Speaker 2: of the money line too. So I think this looks

762
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:56,360
Speaker 2: like an over to me. I've got some trends for

763
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 2: that that we'll come back to that later in the week,

764
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 2: probably on But I think there's been a lot of

765
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 2: points here in a game where the scoring is going

766
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 2: to be in the fifties or sixties, maybe touchdown touchdown

767
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:09,880
Speaker 2: back and forth touchdown, like there's always another score waiting,

768
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 2: and when the score is that high, one bad drive,

769
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,760
Speaker 2: one missque, one play the other way, a broken tackle,

770
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 2: a long bomb that I think the door could be open,

771
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 2: and it might not just be the back door here.

772
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 2: I don't know. Pat Mahomes is always always an NFC

773
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 2: Championship game. I certainly this morning did not expect this

774
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 2: is the play I'd be looking at, But as I

775
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 2: dug into the early research, this is the one that

776
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 2: jumped out for me. One other trend for you on

777
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:40,280
Speaker 2: this one money line underdogs in this round, division round,

778
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:43,879
Speaker 2: the sweet spot is seven points to eleven points. If

779
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,239
Speaker 2: you only play underdogs. There are seven to eleven point underdogs.

780
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 2: Those teams are twelve and twenty one straight up. Doesn't

781
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 2: sound great, but sixty one percent ROI on those if

782
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 2: you play them. And we've got one here, we've got

783
00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 2: another one in the evening game on.

784
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 3: Saturdays, Eagles Philly's laying seven and a half. We look, we're

785
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 3: gonna be talking about these games all week everybody on

786
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 3: the podcast and also on our other content with Action Networks,

787
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 3: so be sure to stay tuned. Let's just get a

788
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 3: couple thoughts here on this game, and we'll get we'll

789
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:14,760
Speaker 3: get to Sunday.

790
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll give this one very easy because I don't

791
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 2: have a decision on this yet. All the things I

792
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 2: just said, all the trends that backed the Jaguars for

793
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:26,320
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, back the Giants even more against the Eagles.

794
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 2: All the trends although the road underdog fade the one seed.

795
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 2: On top of it, you have a divisional thing here,

796
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 2: teams that missed the playoffs last year. That fits Giants

797
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 2: and Jaguars. Those are both good trends on my trends piece.

798
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 2: Literally every one of the trends says all who know

799
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 2: danger Philadelphia Eagles. On the other hand, Holy cow, do

800
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 2: I love this matchup For the Eagles. They have the

801
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 2: best running in the league, rushing in the league against

802
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:59,280
Speaker 2: the worst DVA run defense. They have the best pressure

803
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 2: rate in the league against a terrible pass blocking offense.

804
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 2: This feels like the forty eight to twenty two game

805
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:09,359
Speaker 2: that these teams played a couple of months ago. Right,

806
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 2: Those trends are way opposite in my favor. I don't

807
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 2: know what I'm doing here. I don't know if I

808
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,720
Speaker 2: had a game all year where I felt so clear

809
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 2: on one side of the matchup and so awful on

810
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 2: the trends on the other side. I have to come

811
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 2: back to this one. But if you're a trends, better

812
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:29,280
Speaker 2: bet the Giants. If your matchups, better bet the Eagles.

813
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 2: That's my address.

814
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you want to just dumb this one down,

815
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 3: if you liked the Giants to beat the Vikings, well

816
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:37,479
Speaker 3: remember why you did so, because you had no faith

817
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:40,800
Speaker 3: in the Vikings. And then don't just let your brain

818
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:43,120
Speaker 3: get twisted into a pretzel to think, well, look how

819
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:44,799
Speaker 3: they looked against the Vikings.

820
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,240
Speaker 1: Well, wait a minute, I thought you faded the Vikings.

821
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 3: Really, that's why you took the Giants In most cases,

822
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 3: I would like to think, but I know you got

823
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 3: to play numbers two, not just the matchup on paper

824
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 3: between the two teams. But yes, I think from a

825
00:42:56,880 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 3: matchup standpoint, but yeah, the numbers key there. Okay, Sunday

826
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:05,839
Speaker 3: you alluded to this briefly, the Bills hosting the Bengals.

827
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 1: Hard to not look at the.

828
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 3: Bengals injuries on their defense and we've talked about their

829
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 3: offensive line extensively.

830
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you gotta really you don't want to

831
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:14,360
Speaker 2: bet this one right now? Because the number is in

832
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:17,240
Speaker 2: the no fly zone minus five, five and a half.

833
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 2: It's not gonna stay there. We're gonna go up a

834
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 2: point or down a point. You gotta wait and see

835
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 2: where these injuries line up. Another injury we didn't mention,

836
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 2: Micah Hyde for the Bills, might come back. He's been

837
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:30,799
Speaker 2: practicing a little bit. That would be especially big in

838
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 2: this game because he's so important to their passing defense

839
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 2: against Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase te Higgins, all these guys.

840
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:39,879
Speaker 2: So you gotta wait and see where the injuries come

841
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 2: up on this one. The one thing I'm most confident

842
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:44,760
Speaker 2: in in this game is I think the Bills score.

843
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 2: I think the Bills are going to get their points.

844
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:49,479
Speaker 2: So I would maybe take a Bills team total over

845
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 2: twenty seven and a half right now if I had

846
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 2: to play one. I took the Bills minus three and

847
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 2: a half already. I feel good about it. But I'm

848
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:58,359
Speaker 2: not rushing out to grab the five right now, because

849
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 2: you gotta wait and see where the line moves. The

850
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 2: whole point of grabbing the three and a half was

851
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 2: to get it before the line kind of jump back

852
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 2: up with some of the injury fears, So I think

853
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 2: too as better as we need to be cognizant of. Look,

854
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:13,359
Speaker 2: we just have this game right like three weeks ago,

855
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 2: and then we didn't have the game. And if I

856
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:18,319
Speaker 2: know that, and you know that, the players know that,

857
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 2: and I don't know what you're thinking when you go

858
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 2: out to take the field for this game, either one

859
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 2: of these teams. You got to have a lot of

860
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 2: emotions coming back from that game that was not long

861
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 2: ago here. So I think for me, I'm probably gonna

862
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 2: tiptoe in on this one and probably not go too heavily.

863
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 2: The other thing, too, is I probably will like the

864
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 2: Bills here, like I have them already, but they're pretty

865
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:43,240
Speaker 2: slow starting team, so I think you can maybe wait.

866
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 2: This feels like a back and forth, back and forth game,

867
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 2: kind of like Bill's Chiefs last year. So I think

868
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:51,359
Speaker 2: if you like the Bills, you not only should wait

869
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 2: right now, you maybe just wait and go live because

870
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 2: maybe the Bengals get an opening touchdown and you might

871
00:44:57,520 --> 00:44:59,359
Speaker 2: just end up getting like a you know, an even

872
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 2: odds money or something like that along the way.

873
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:05,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, the I'm going into the Chris Raybond bag of tricks.

874
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 3: The Buffalo first half team total is it thirteen and

875
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:11,719
Speaker 3: a half. That's the juice is on the over there

876
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 3: minus won thirty six. And when Raybond got it, think

877
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 3: he got it at fourteen when we did it during

878
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:21,479
Speaker 3: the week last week, but it shot the odds shot

879
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 3: up to like minus one fifty, So that.

880
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 1: Might be worth a look too.

881
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 3: You get right below the key number fourteen two touchdowns

882
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:30,040
Speaker 3: and they scored fourteen.

883
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:31,320
Speaker 1: Now I know Miami.

884
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 3: I thought Miami did some good things defensively, but they

885
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:37,760
Speaker 3: brought it to the Dolphins rather quickly in that ballgame.

886
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 3: But if you think the back and forth kind of style,

887
00:45:40,239 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 3: but you bring up a good point the human element

888
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 3: here of just the nostalgia of playing.

889
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:44,799
Speaker 1: That same team.

890
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,360
Speaker 3: Again, it's not in Cincinnati, as we know, it's in Buffalo,

891
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 3: But those thoughts come up. Is it a slower starting game,

892
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 3: feel it out kind of game in the first quarter

893
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 3: or so, we'll find out that's a good one. We're

894
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:57,960
Speaker 3: going to break that one apart, just like we were

895
00:45:57,960 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 3: doing leading into Monday night when they were going.

896
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 1: To meet the first time.

897
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,560
Speaker 3: That was a game that we all got hyped up about.

898
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:04,800
Speaker 3: And of course all these games deserve that attention. And finally,

899
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 3: Cowboys Niners San Fran laying four. I'm curious, had Dallas

900
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 3: not looked as good as it did tonight?

901
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 1: Is that four? Or is it five or six? I

902
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:18,840
Speaker 1: don't know, what do you think? Brandon?

903
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it maybe should have been five or six.

904
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 2: And I was really hoping watching this game tonight, maybe

905
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 2: maybe we'd get a minus two and a half in there.

906
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 2: And boy, let me tell you, that would have been

907
00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,879
Speaker 2: the run to the booth hot reed like we would

908
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 2: have hit records, so I'd get this thing on the

909
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 2: hot reads fast. I could at a two and a

910
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 2: half at four, I don't know. I still feel pretty

911
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 2: good about it. Obviously, it's brand news, so I need

912
00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 2: a little more time to look into this one. A

913
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 2: couple of things here to note turnovers. Of course, turnovers

914
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:50,400
Speaker 2: are always key, but both these teams, in particular, we

915
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:53,359
Speaker 2: know about all the Dak Prescott interceptions when things don't

916
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 2: go well for them forty nine ers in their four losses,

917
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:59,719
Speaker 2: they've turned it over eleven times and only fours three.

918
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 2: And their fourteen wins they have twenty nine turnovers to

919
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 2: only six on their own, So I think that's gonna

920
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 2: be the key. Dak can't turn it over here, it's

921
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 2: going to go south quickly, and then San France pass

922
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:16,400
Speaker 2: protection is very good, but we know Micah Parsons, we

923
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:18,359
Speaker 2: know that's the thing. Dallas is going to get home

924
00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:22,239
Speaker 2: if they get there. This, finally, is that test you

925
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 2: mentioned with Brock Purty. Here's who they've played so far.

926
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:30,879
Speaker 2: Miami twenty six on defense, passing defense, Tampa twenty first,

927
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 2: Seattle seventeenth, Washington sixteen, Vegas thirty one, Arizona twenty three. Wow.

928
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 2: In Seattle this week, I'll have the number there, but

929
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:44,400
Speaker 2: it's an average bottom ten passing DVA defense. The Cowboys

930
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:47,439
Speaker 2: and then the Eagles are both top five, So that's

931
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 2: the big difference here. You've been laying it up San

932
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 2: fran You've been lighting up rock Purty. But that's the test.

933
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:57,239
Speaker 2: If you think Dallas covers and maybe can win, it

934
00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 2: has to be because party gets exped a little piti

935
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:05,160
Speaker 2: here and that defense shows up. I don't feel that myself,

936
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:09,280
Speaker 2: but we'll see. It's a weird rest spot. Dallas gets

937
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:12,040
Speaker 2: two days less of rest, which has never happened in

938
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:15,719
Speaker 2: the playoff history according to our system, So that's kind

939
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:19,320
Speaker 2: of a strange spot here. Again, the trends kind of

940
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:22,479
Speaker 2: lean toward Dallas, but least so of any of these

941
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:25,720
Speaker 2: teams that we've talked about. So for me, I think

942
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:29,920
Speaker 2: this is a spot where Dallas feels overrated after just

943
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:32,880
Speaker 2: kicking a lifeless Bucks team to the curb, and I

944
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:35,239
Speaker 2: think we're getting a cheap price on the Niners. I'm

945
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:38,320
Speaker 2: probably gonna look you to grab it early. But man,

946
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:42,360
Speaker 2: the trends say to beware are overconfidence in these home teams.

947
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 3: Excellent, all right, folks, that's your abbreviated hot reed.

948
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 1: More coverage throughout the week.

949
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 3: We'll have best Bets on Thursday, of course, and all

950
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:54,520
Speaker 3: of our daily shows, the podcast with Raybon and Stucky,

951
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:57,399
Speaker 3: the Action Network Podcast, they'll do their betting preview for

952
00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 3: the divisional round for Brandon Anderson. David Paine, our producer,

953
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 3: will have Joke a lot back hopefully next week.

954
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 1: Jill had a busy week breaking.

955
00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 3: Down and get winning tickets as it pertains to.

956
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 1: Touchdown scores, so very good. That'll do it.

957
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 3: For the Action Network podcast presented by A FanDuel, Folks

958
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:17,799
Speaker 3: will have the recap episode again next week.

959
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:20,399
Speaker 1: We'll do it Sunday night with no Monday night game,

960
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 1: and we will.

961
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 3: Also have the Best Bets episode coming later this week.

962
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:25,840
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you all again real soon. Thanks for

963
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:27,240
Speaker 1: listening to the Action Network podcast.

964
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:46,120
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

965
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:49,480
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

966
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:52,239
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

967
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:53,120
Speaker 1: hundred gambler