WEBVTT - Lots More With Luke Kawa on Memestock Mania 2.0 0:00:03.160 --> 0:00:07.480 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:12.559 Tracy, do you think the memestock thing is like already 0:00:12.600 --> 0:00:14.320 over already? I'm serious. 0:00:14.360 --> 0:00:16.239 Well, you know what, I'm looking at the chart of 0:00:16.320 --> 0:00:19.160 game Stop and it went up a lot and now 0:00:19.160 --> 0:00:21.079 it's coming down a lot. The thing I think is 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:23.400 kind of funny is if you view the entire memes 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:26.920 stock phenomenon from an efficient markets hypothesis, you get really 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:31.000 interesting questions like why didn't the market already price in 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:35.360 the risk or the possibility of Roaring Kitty coming back 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:38.080 on Twitter and tweeting a picture of a guy sitting 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:39.879 up in a chair that should have been priced in. 0:00:40.040 --> 0:00:42.839 Yeah, I totally agree. As you know, I am the 0:00:42.880 --> 0:00:47.400 world's biggest believer in the efficient market hypothesis. It's always 0:00:47.400 --> 0:00:50.400 priced in all the time. And for the first time 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:53.920 in my life, at age forty three, something has come 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:58.040 along to shake my faith. And it is the no. 0:00:58.160 --> 0:01:00.680 It is the fact that the market did not pricing 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:05.760 apparently the possibility that after like three years of radio silent, 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:08.440 we would get a tweet of a guy leaning forward 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:11.800 from the Roaring Kitty sending the stock high. 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:13.240 Then I've done. 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:17.759 RFK Junior tweeting that he was investing in game stock. 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:20.800 I have to I have to completely rethink my fundamental 0:01:20.840 --> 0:01:24.160 assumptions about how all markets work. Based on the game 0:01:24.240 --> 0:01:27.560 Stop chart of the last ten or so days, I'm 0:01:27.600 --> 0:01:29.759 completely revisiting all my core assumption. 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:32.039 It's good that the apes have you thinking. 0:01:34.560 --> 0:01:41.640 I did a deadlift one two, Jimmy, Okay, up barges. 0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:43.840 This isn't after school Special, except. 0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:46.080 I've decided I'm going to base my entire personality going 0:01:46.080 --> 0:01:49.320 forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve in the US. 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:51.120 Where's the best with imposta? 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:53.920 These are the important question? Is it robots taking over 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:54.280 the world? 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:54.520 No? 0:01:54.600 --> 0:01:57.480 I think that like in a couple of years, the 0:01:57.560 --> 0:01:59.680 AI will do a really good job of making the 0:01:59.720 --> 0:02:03.360 app podcast and people say, I don't really need to 0:02:03.400 --> 0:02:04.880 listen to Joe and Tracy anymore. 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:06.040 We do have. 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:11.640 The perfect You're listening to lots More where we catch 0:02:11.680 --> 0:02:14.640 up with friends about what's going on right now, because. 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:17.440 Even when Odd Lots is over, there's always lots More. 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:20.119 And we really do have the perfect guest. 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:25.200 Luke, what do you think? Why wasn't it priced in already? 0:02:26.040 --> 0:02:28.640 Yess? My My favorite way is to you know, answer 0:02:28.720 --> 0:02:31.720 a question with a question, And I think the bigger 0:02:31.760 --> 0:02:35.480 one is, why the heck if you're management of GM 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:37.720 and you've seen your stock get memed before, how the 0:02:37.760 --> 0:02:40.960 hell do you not have like a shelf oh ready 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:43.080 to go. That's as we can sell shares into this 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:46.240 any time. But you know, as for why, you know, 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:49.960 folks were expecting this, I would say, look at what 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:53.600 you have. Slash haven't gotten from you know, the the 0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:57.840 Roaring Kitty Twitter account or anything from Keith gill sense 0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:01.360 you know, let's call it mid twenty twenty one, didn't 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:05.320 participate in the book or the movie effectively made about him. 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:07.799 It just seemed like, no, I don't know if the 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:10.680 you know, the Roaring Kitty just kind of went into 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:13.919 to pseudo hibernation. It seemed like, you know, nine Lives 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:16.960 over and was gone from the scene. So not something 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:20.400 that was on anyone's radars, certainly of all the you know, 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:23.519 crazy things in markets that happened, this was not one 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:25.400 when I was, you know, coming back into journalism that 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:27.120 I was expecting to get hit over the head with. 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:31.960 We're speaking with Luke Kawa, our former colleague at Bloomberg. 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:34.520 We worked together with him for many years, and then 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:39.320 he left us to join ubs and do serious financial jobs. 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:42.680 And now he's back in journalism. He's a markets editor 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:47.480 over at Robin Hood's Sherwood Media. So a very triumphant 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:49.520 return to financial journalism. 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:52.200 Well timed. I guess, it's like great, It's like we're 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:54.920 going to go to Robin Hood's media arm and immediately 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:58.080 the game stop thing happens. It's like fate, right, That's right. 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:00.280 And the other reason we wanted to talk to Luke, 0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:02.800 other than the fact that he's fun to talk to, 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:05.840 is he was one of the first people at Bloomberg 0:04:06.040 --> 0:04:09.920 who took what was happening on Wall Street Bets fairly seriously. 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:12.720 And I think was one of the first writers of 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:17.080 our big cover story on Wall Street Bets when it 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:19.559 actually started to take off. And this was way back 0:04:19.640 --> 0:04:22.560 in let's see early twenty twenty, Is that right. 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:25.240 Luke, Yeah, Yeah, that's the I'd say, you know, late 0:04:25.279 --> 0:04:27.840 twenty nineteen, early twenty twenty. It was when we got 0:04:27.880 --> 0:04:30.440 the you know, the prelude or the proof of concept 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:32.359 to a lot of things that we would see in 0:04:32.480 --> 0:04:35.159 later years. And I love the transition from I want 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:37.479 to go do serious work and now he's back covering 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:38.240 the Memes ducks. 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:41.280 So yeah. Well, one of the things that I really 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:44.040 liked about the way you wrote about the Memes talk 0:04:44.080 --> 0:04:47.480 phenomenon and Wall Street bets at the time was like, Okay, yes, 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:51.080 there was this whole cultural phenomenon attached to it where 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:54.120 we get to throw around words like uh, autists and 0:04:54.240 --> 0:04:57.200 apes and lots of profanity, which I'm not going to 0:04:57.240 --> 0:04:58.719 say on the show because then We'll just have to 0:04:58.720 --> 0:05:01.919 bleep everything out. But you kind of approached it from 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:05.520 a market's angle, which I think tends to get very 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:09.359 forgotten nowadays. Everyone's just like, haha, game stop, isn't the 0:05:09.440 --> 0:05:12.760 silly But when all of this first started happening, it 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:15.360 was kind of an experiment in market structure, and I 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:19.360 think people forget that. So the idea was that basically, 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:23.000 if you bought a bunch of options on a particular stock, 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:27.159 then market makers would have to go out and hedge 0:05:27.200 --> 0:05:30.440 their own risk, and they might do that by buying 0:05:30.480 --> 0:05:32.719 the stock, and so you get this sort of like 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:37.960 perpetual motion machine that effectively forces the stock to go up. 0:05:39.200 --> 0:05:43.120 Yeah, that's a great explanation. I think, like, what where 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:46.360 I had my kind of eureka moment, so to speak, 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:50.160 was there's obviously Wall Street Betch was a place where 0:05:50.400 --> 0:05:54.160 people were pitching they're crazy option bets, they're large positions, 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:56.919 they're yolo's what have you, Although like with some of 0:05:56.960 --> 0:05:59.159 the stocks getting memed several times. Now I don't know 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:01.080 if like yolo is the way to describe it. You 0:06:01.080 --> 0:06:04.680 get two or three opportunities seemingly on a lot of these. 0:06:04.520 --> 0:06:07.720 Things, but if but if you miss it, you get 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:10.080 to live a second time exactly. 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:12.719 But one of the things that really struck a chord 0:06:12.760 --> 0:06:15.320 with me was you saw like a lot of you know, 0:06:15.560 --> 0:06:19.000 intrigue on maybe like smaller names or story stocks. Tessel 0:06:19.120 --> 0:06:23.000 was obviously an early favorite of the Wall Street Bets community, 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:27.039 but there was one user who one time made the argument. 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:29.960 And this was after that, you know, I did a 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:34.359 little publishing on the Perpetual Motion Machine as you have it. 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:37.560 You know, the quote unquote forced Gamma squeeze if we're 0:06:37.560 --> 0:06:41.440 getting into the Greeks. But one person said we should 0:06:41.480 --> 0:06:45.239 try to do this with Microsoft tomorrow in the pre market, 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:47.359 and I saw this, but I go like, okay, like 0:06:47.520 --> 0:06:51.159 let's let's relax, You're going to meme Microsoft now like 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:52.760 this is going to be like a thing you're going 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:54.440 to try to do. Why not like come on, like 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:56.400 stick to your own knitting kind of stuff. 0:06:56.640 --> 0:06:56.800 Uh. 0:06:57.040 --> 0:07:00.400 Then there was the next morning a crazy amount of 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:03.640 call activity in Microsoft and buying in the pre market 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:06.240 and Microsoft up like it was something like two and 0:07:06.240 --> 0:07:08.960 a half to three percent for no reason. And that's 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:12.239 when I started to take it more seriously as a okay, 0:07:12.280 --> 0:07:17.240 well coordinated buying power at certain times through certain vehicles 0:07:17.520 --> 0:07:19.800 can even leave an imprint on you know what was 0:07:19.880 --> 0:07:23.000 then the and probably still is now the largest US 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:25.640 doc by market cap. So that's something that you know, 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:28.520 really blew my mind then and was something worth following 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:32.720 up on as it became kind of even more coordinated, 0:07:32.880 --> 0:07:35.960 even more revolving around kind of you know, certain stories. 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:39.080 And then the success the proof of concept grew to 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:41.560 a point where you you know, you get more and 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:45.720 more power because if nothing else, this is a momentum 0:07:45.720 --> 0:07:48.000 play that just got you know, more momentum as it 0:07:48.040 --> 0:07:48.680 got more attention. 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:50.920 It's so crazy, by the way, I know, this is 0:07:50.960 --> 0:07:53.360 not the point. It's so wild to me that Microsoft 0:07:53.440 --> 0:07:56.760 is still the biggest company in the entire world, given 0:07:57.120 --> 0:07:59.040 it was the biggest company in the entire world or 0:07:59.280 --> 0:08:03.000 more or less decades ago, and so many different things 0:08:03.000 --> 0:08:07.520 that ostensibly would have disrupted it, from the Internet to whatever, Apple, 0:08:07.600 --> 0:08:10.000 et cetera. And yet still I did. But I know 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:11.200 that that's a divergence. 0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:12.600 No one wants to talk about it. 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:14.080 I know, I know, I know. I just that's just 0:08:14.080 --> 0:08:16.240 one of those facts that still blows my mind. That 0:08:16.360 --> 0:08:19.880 big said. So you mentioned, you know, GMME management should 0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:23.400 have had that shelf registration ready to go. AMC, which 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:26.680 always seemed like, I guess I would say, played a 0:08:26.720 --> 0:08:29.640 little bit more cynically into the memestock crowd than the 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:32.400 GMC management. They did have that plan ready to go. 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:34.719 They did do something because they broke. 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:38.439 The emergency Memestock glass, Yeah, took their plan off the shelf. 0:08:38.520 --> 0:08:42.400 Yeah, so the yes, But what happened with AMC during 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:45.040 this round was they had a they had a shelf 0:08:45.080 --> 0:08:47.880 offering that they had pretty much sold out of, so 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:50.679 to speak, by by the end of so just as 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:53.240 it was starting, they had an opportunity to sell a 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:55.560 little more into it. And I remember, you know, on 0:08:55.640 --> 0:08:58.320 the on the Monday or something going like GEZ AMC 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:01.400 really really blew this one really blew this opportunity. And 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:03.839 it's weird because as you know, you know, the CEO there, 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:07.920 Aaron has done a i would say, a fantastic job 0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:11.640 and recognizing that to a certain extent, the shareholder base 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:14.240 is a lot of the product, both in terms of 0:09:14.559 --> 0:09:17.760 you know, integration into you know, rewards that you get 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:19.960 to go to the theater, and also in terms of 0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:24.480 some of the more shrewd let's call them financing angles 0:09:24.480 --> 0:09:26.680 that have been litigated back and forth through the courts 0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:29.880 but seem to have mainly served the purpose of raising 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:32.719 more capital from AMC, from people that just wanted to 0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:35.480 see the stock go up and the company succeed. And 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:37.920 then of course AMC, right after you think that even 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:40.360 they kind of missed the window here, the next day 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:43.240 they you know, effectively I've called you know, they turned 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:46.400 memes into a debt jubilee and able to issue bors 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:51.400 stairs trade trade shairs for for debt retire effectively the debt. 0:09:51.760 --> 0:09:54.640 And it's that's one of my favorite parts about this 0:09:55.240 --> 0:09:58.640 is just watching the the memes make things happen in 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:01.200 real life for companies that is going to have a 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:03.480 meaningful impact on their on their ability as a as 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:07.040 a going forward concern in the months, quarters, possibly years 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:10.400 to come. What was a little different about GME was 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:14.160 that as this was happening, as this was starting, GM 0:10:14.480 --> 0:10:17.840 was already in its earnings blackout period. So, you know, 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:20.440 typically that is that is something that is going to 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:23.720 preclude you from coming forward if you don't already have 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:26.720 you know, an existing shelf open to to be able 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:29.080 to sell sharers at market, that's going to preclude you 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:32.040 from bringing one to the market at that point, unless 0:10:32.080 --> 0:10:34.760 you're also willing to come forward with your you know, 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:38.120 kind of preliminary earnings results. So it's probably more likely 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:41.240 that the you know, effectively the choke point on GM 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:43.480 being able to cash in more on this from the 0:10:43.480 --> 0:10:46.640 management perspective was just the you know, I think it 0:10:46.679 --> 0:10:49.079 was five days it probably took for them to get 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:51.600 those numbers together, so they were able to say like, hey, 0:10:51.720 --> 0:10:53.720 here's our numbers. Also, yes, we want to sell another 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:56.280 forty five million and shairs if you'll have them at 0:10:56.280 --> 0:10:58.920 a price. But you know, by that time, we had 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:01.280 already seen a lot of deflation in the in the 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:02.280 stock price by then. 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:04.560 Yeah I've said this before, but I think one of 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:08.280 the nicer interpretations of the memes stock phenomenon is people 0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:11.680 basically treating the stock market buying shares of a company 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:15.720 that is very much struggling to maintain or achieve profitability 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:19.080 as a giant GoFundMe for businesses that they kind of 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:21.880 like or feel some sense of nostalgia for, which, again 0:11:22.040 --> 0:11:24.680 in twenty twenty one, when no one was able to 0:11:24.760 --> 0:11:27.080 go to the movie theater, that did actually make a 0:11:27.080 --> 0:11:30.760 big difference for amc Luke, I have a really important 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:35.360 question for you, as a fellow redditor. Is it true 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:37.920 that you may be a mod on Wall Street Bets 0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:39.679 and how did that rumor get started? 0:11:40.120 --> 0:11:40.440 Wow? 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:43.960 I can, I can say confidently so I am not 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:47.760 a cat and I am not a r All Street 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:51.480 Bets subreddit monitor. I am. I'm a mod on nowhere 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:54.319 on Reddit. I have no clue where it all of 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:56.960 this got started. I think it may come from the 0:11:57.080 --> 0:12:00.480 era where I was back in twenty two twenty, where 0:12:00.480 --> 0:12:03.240 I was more kind of fervently having back and forth 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:05.160 with folks there. And I know the thing I remember 0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:07.120 most vividly about that is I was probably, I think 0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:10.319 the only one posting Bloomberg charts on Wall Street Bets 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:15.120 because everyone was like, what what is this chart? Background 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:17.520 a lot of a lot of e trades and stuff 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:19.439 of that nature. So I think that's maybe why I 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:21.400 stood out to some folks back then. 0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:24.480 You would be a really good Wall Street bed mod. 0:12:24.840 --> 0:12:27.440 So I'm just saying I would probably be even more 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:29.920 inclined to pay attention to it if you were. But 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:32.840 I will trust your denial. I don't think you would 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:35.560 be dishonest with us that you're not one of the 0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:39.959 pupil secretly running that page. Here's the other thing I'm 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:43.880 thinking about, Like, with this sort of seemingly brief round 0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:47.559 of game memestock menia over like, it alsol like I 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:50.360 don't know, people are saying, like, what a stuck culture 0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:53.080 we have? We're doing this again. It's like we know 0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:55.600 how the story begins, we know how the story ends, 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:57.960 and so why not just like fast forward the tape 0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:00.720 and get through the entire process quickly, like all of 0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:03.080 the ups and downs with this without the sort of 0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:05.960 awe and mysticism around it this time. 0:13:07.000 --> 0:13:09.480 Yeah, I would say this was a lot more of 0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:13.839 a of a cynical episode. And I think if you 0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:17.920 just compare and contrast the previous rounds we've had. You 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:20.440 can a see it in the you can see it 0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:22.080 kind of in the raw numbers. Whether we want to 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:25.760 talk about like how much total call volumes rose, how 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:30.120 much volumes rose, turnover value traded, YadA, YadA, YadA, all 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:32.520 of that is very different from now to then. But 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:35.640 it's almost kind of like a chicken and egg question there, 0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:39.200 because is is there something about the story that was different? 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:42.280 Is there something about the market structure that was different 0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:46.000 this time round? I would say yes on both sides. 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:48.360 I'll start with the story first. Heading up to twenty 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:50.680 twenty one, there had already been you know, the a 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:55.520 small crowd including Roaring Kitty, including Rod Allsman, I think 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:57.920 you've had on in the past. Who are who are 0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:01.719 really making the vigorous, you know, value case for GameStop 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:04.520 that you know, you had this one big last puff, 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:07.280 so to speak, of the legacy business that was being 0:14:07.280 --> 0:14:09.480 price Azz was going to imminently go out of business, 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:12.040 but it probably had a lot more runway in terms 0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:15.280 of another full cycle of generating some some free cash flow. 0:14:15.520 --> 0:14:17.800 And then maybe you also have this you know, big 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:21.960 effective option on you know, the the loyal GameStop subscribers 0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:24.360 that you know you can maybe turn into and monetize 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:26.600 a little bit better than you are. Couple that with 0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:29.800 also the high amount of short interests. So that was 0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:33.840 a story that started good got even better when you 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:36.720 know the stock four x effectively over the final four 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:39.320 or so months of twenty twenty, and then you had 0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:42.480 Ryan Cohen coming in in early January, so there was 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:46.760 actually like a lot of potential catalysts that were happening 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:49.000 at that time. I think you also got another another 0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:52.200 round of Stimmi checks, and on the entertainment side, I 0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:55.240 don't know how much pro sports we really had back 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:59.320 on then. So all the stars really aligned for the 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:01.480 story to be a lot better and that to be 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:04.560 able to command a lot more mind share compared to now, 0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:08.240 nothing's been happening in game SOT. There's been really no 0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:11.760 change in the fundamental story. All that really happened is, 0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:14.680 you know, right before this shares got back to where 0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:17.360 they were in January twenty twenty one, right before they 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:21.400 went parabolic. So that's really all that changed this time. 0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:24.480 I would also say potentially something to highlight on the 0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:26.800 on the market structure side that may have changed a 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:29.480 little bit. It's it's it's tough to quantify, and this 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:33.800 is still somewhat of a more embryonic hypothesis on my end. 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:36.000 But if you just want to compare the you know, 0:15:36.320 --> 0:15:39.720 let's look at the peak in call volumes traded on 0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:43.360 GME at different times. At this the call volume peak 0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:46.720 was about six hundred and fifty thousand and today. Back 0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:50.120 in January twenty twenty one, that peaked at over four million. 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:54.000 So one of the factors that goes into two options 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:57.640 pricing is effectively, the more an option is in demand, 0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:01.400 the higher the implied volatility for that option, i e. 0:16:01.480 --> 0:16:05.560 It's its cost should be. What happened this time was 0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:09.720 we did see in my eyes, for a lower amount 0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:12.800 of volume and for a lower move in the in 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:16.680 the stock some of those options, those lottery ticket options, 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:19.880 you start to see the implied volatility jack up a 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:22.440 lot faster than they had in the past. So that's 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:25.040 a bit of a sign that, you know, maybe if 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:28.800 GME didn't have the shelf ready to go, market makers 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:31.520 had their playbook ready to go on, how more or 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:33.920 less they were going to respond to something like this 0:16:34.000 --> 0:16:37.200 happening again and build themselves a little in a little 0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:40.160 better margin of safety. I would say, so just worse 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.440 story and you know, better market mechanics probably are are 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:46.800 things that help this thiszle out a lot lot quicker 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:48.840 and just be a lot more about making a quick 0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:52.240 buck than any kind of you know, grand story you 0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:54.480 can wrap around about you know, sticking it to the 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:57.640 man or you know, sticking it to a particular hedge fund. Yeah. 0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:00.240 I think that's right, especially about the market makers being 0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:03.080 more prepared for this, and also maybe even the hedge funds. 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:06.480 And you see this discourse on Wall Street Bets itself 0:17:06.520 --> 0:17:10.360 where people talk about how like Wall Street couldn't beat them, 0:17:10.400 --> 0:17:13.080 and so they decided to join them instead. And now 0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:15.480 you have a lot of hedge funds that are actively 0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:18.920 monitoring all sorts of social media, but Wall Street Bets 0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:22.120 is certainly one of them, or plugging into discord servers 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:24.639 and things like that to try to track sentiment. So 0:17:24.840 --> 0:17:27.600 in some ways, the big irony here is that I 0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:30.560 guess Wall Street Bets has kind of become more intertwined 0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:31.680 with Wall Street itself. 0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:35.280 I think if you if you know that momentum is 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:38.359 a factor, if you have seen this story play out before, 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:40.959 I think there's a reason why a lot of the 0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:44.520 socks with the kind of similar characteristics or have had 0:17:44.560 --> 0:17:48.479 these the similar history during previous rounds of retail media. 0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:50.760 I don't think it's a surprise that, you know, to 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:53.320 some extent they traded like a bit of a basket. 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:56.159 That is, that's something that suggests a you know, a 0:17:56.200 --> 0:18:00.480 lot more professional piggybacking at play here rather than just 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:04.000 a more grassroots move in all of these names. 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:19.240 At the same time, I find that at this point 0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:24.200 I hadn't I, unlike Tracy, I don't troll troll Wall 0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:27.960 Street bets. I try to control to U troll and 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:30.920 your trol, but I don't troll. I don't troll either, 0:18:31.160 --> 0:18:34.920 but I don't troll. I did not realize this phenomenon, 0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:39.840 that the inherent richness of the options as measured by 0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:43.080 their the volatility, had gone up so much faster in 0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:46.800 this whole phenomenon with the market makers just getting better. 0:18:46.840 --> 0:18:48.520 It's like, oh, we've seen this before. We're going to 0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:51.639 price them more when we sell these call options to 0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:54.359 end retail that we're going to like make them pay 0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:58.320 more right off the bat, because we've seen that playbook before. 0:18:58.320 --> 0:18:59.320 I find that really interesting. 0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:01.920 Well, the other thing that I noticed looking at Wall 0:19:01.920 --> 0:19:06.200 Street Bets recently, is that like roaring Kitty has basically 0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:11.520 been excommunicated from that subreddit. So when he tweeted, you know, 0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:14.680 someone made a post about it, but then the moderators 0:19:14.720 --> 0:19:18.480 came in and said, you can't really talk about roaring 0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:21.360 Kitty and if you want to talk about GameStop then 0:19:21.480 --> 0:19:24.880 go over to a super stunk or there's a dedicated 0:19:24.960 --> 0:19:29.320 GME subreddit as well. When did that happen and why, like, 0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:32.560 why is rooring Kitty basically not part of Wall Street 0:19:32.560 --> 0:19:33.280 Bets anymore? 0:19:34.000 --> 0:19:35.840 At least I can say that in terms of the 0:19:35.840 --> 0:19:39.159 the archived post like they're they'll still there, so the 0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:44.160 record of you know, all of roing Kitty's position updates, 0:19:44.480 --> 0:19:48.000 all of that still there. In terms of the the 0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:51.960 lack of GME AMC, I think that is more a 0:19:52.119 --> 0:19:56.160 legal liability thing brought on by you know, that particular 0:19:56.720 --> 0:20:00.840 subreddit mod's opinions on what is taller rble, what is 0:20:00.960 --> 0:20:03.000 not in in the wake of you know a lot 0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:07.760 of people based SEC investigations after twenty twenty one, and 0:20:08.400 --> 0:20:11.800 you know, had demanded all their sec demanded like all 0:20:11.840 --> 0:20:15.520 their messages on Reddit to this this and that any 0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:18.520 other message boards, any discords, uh scrubbing for that and 0:20:18.600 --> 0:20:21.640 you know, at pretty amazing legal expense. So I think 0:20:21.720 --> 0:20:24.320 that's certainly an angle here in terms of you know, 0:20:24.400 --> 0:20:28.159 those folks trying to cover some legal liability. Also, you know, 0:20:28.280 --> 0:20:31.119 around the same time, I think there's been more of 0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:35.719 a divide or divorce among that that Moud's community, of 0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:39.960 which I was never a part that, including one that 0:20:40.000 --> 0:20:43.240 you know, saw the effect of the first founder, Jamie Rugazinski, 0:20:43.480 --> 0:20:46.520 exit around during these times and you know, in the 0:20:46.560 --> 0:20:49.320 wake of publishing his book and you know, some question 0:20:49.400 --> 0:20:53.359 over trademarks, some questions over self promotion. I believe still 0:20:53.400 --> 0:20:57.280