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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The crown

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Speaker 1: is yours. We got our WBC preview yesterday from Shon

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Speaker 1: Zarella and he was so nice.

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Speaker 2: We did it twice. Today.

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Speaker 1: We chat with Sean Zarillo again as we dip into

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Speaker 1: the MLB player futures market. I'm your host, Brandon Kravitz,

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Speaker 1: joined by the Prime Minister of Djen Nation Stuckey Kendrim

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Speaker 1: Middleton still in Portugal, a vacation that I am told

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Speaker 1: she trained for like it was the Wine Olympics, So

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Speaker 1: hope that she's having a good time.

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Speaker 2: She'll return next week. Stucky.

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Speaker 1: Do you have any big off season trips planned that

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Speaker 1: we should know about that you're looking forward to whenever

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Speaker 1: you get out of the weeds of March.

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Speaker 3: Not yet.

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Speaker 4: I mean every year we would have three or four

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Speaker 4: trips plan by now. We always go to a national

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Speaker 4: park we were going to do like this year where

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Speaker 4: we're gonna do Glacier or Acadia. We do that for

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Speaker 4: a week. It hit a couple of national parts, go

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Speaker 4: out west usually and then we do one international trip

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Speaker 4: where we pick out of a hat so we put

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Speaker 4: we each come up with five places we want to

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Speaker 4: go to the camp in the US, put it in

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Speaker 4: a hat, and then we pick one at a time

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Speaker 4: out and then you reveal and then you say, we're

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Speaker 4: not going here, and whatever one's last is where we go.

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Speaker 4: But we haven't done that. We just had a baby,

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Speaker 4: so I don't like it's I don't know. We haven't

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Speaker 4: planned anything yet because we're just not sure what we're

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Speaker 4: gonna be able to do and when. So it'll be

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Speaker 4: we'll do like last minute trip planning. So it'll be

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Speaker 4: nothing outrageous this year.

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Speaker 3: So this is like a year off.

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Speaker 4: It'll be a summer of light vacations and time spent

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Speaker 4: with the little one.

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Speaker 2: You can make up for it when you're old and gray.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to travel with the baby, so I think

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Speaker 1: probably best to lay low. I do an annual beach

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Speaker 1: trip every year with the laws, so we'll go out

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Speaker 1: to the west coast of Florida for that sometime.

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Speaker 2: Usually it's around either the NBA Draft or NBA Finals.

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Speaker 1: I don't have to worry about the magic being involved,

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Speaker 1: so we don't have to work around that schedule. And

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Speaker 1: then i've I've never been to a Cardinals game. Have

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Speaker 1: you ever been to Bush Stadium? That that that's on

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Speaker 1: my list this year. Last year I went to Wrigley

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Speaker 1: Field for the third time, so I've I have checked

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Speaker 1: that box multiple times. But I always like to go

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Speaker 1: to a new ballpark every year. Is that one that

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Speaker 1: you've been to? And now they've got this deal twenty

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Speaker 1: nine bucks you get all you can eat at the concession,

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Speaker 1: so we're saving money going there.

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Speaker 3: I haven't been bushed now, but it looks cool to

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Speaker 3: go to great fans.

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Speaker 1: Yep, yep, they've got the uh, they've got the art

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Speaker 1: shout there in center field.

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Speaker 2: By the way, I have a random question for you.

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Speaker 1: This is based off of something that happened to me

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Speaker 1: the other day. And I know based on previous off

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Speaker 1: the wall conversations that we've had that you're not one

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Speaker 1: that goes to the doctor's office very often. In fact,

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Speaker 1: when is the last time you've stepped foot in the

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Speaker 1: doctor's office?

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Speaker 3: Maybe to make this public knowledge?

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Speaker 4: No, I mean I do remember I went because we

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Speaker 4: had talked about this before. I went a couple of

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Speaker 4: years ago for like a a check in.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 4: I just when I moved down here, when I found

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Speaker 4: a doctor, but like I don't uh, that's about it.

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Speaker 3: I have to now that I'm now that I'm getting older,

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Speaker 3: I have to start doing it more regularly. But yeah, not.

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Speaker 3: I mean I would go so if I felt bad

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Speaker 3: or something was wrong.

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Speaker 2: Right right, But as you get older, you suppose now

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Speaker 2: I get checking.

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Speaker 3: But like, yeah, but what do you do or what

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Speaker 3: are they going to do?

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Speaker 4: They just give me like a yeah, I guess I

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Speaker 4: should be proactive, more proactive about it.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sorry.

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Speaker 2: Well I just turned forty kid too, so I'll be

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Speaker 2: more proactive, all.

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Speaker 1: Right then, So that's all part of the process. And

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Speaker 1: so I have been having that conversation with myself. So

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Speaker 1: I booked an appointment the other day and I go

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Speaker 1: in on Wednesday. I go to They checked my vitals,

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Speaker 1: they do all this stuff. They ask you if anything's wrong,

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Speaker 1: and they say the doc will be in shortly.

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Speaker 2: So I'm sitting there in the room.

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Speaker 1: Up on that big seat where your feet dangle like

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Speaker 1: you're an eight year old.

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Speaker 2: It's the most awkward seat on the planet.

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Speaker 1: I waited ninety minutes, stucky before some I nobody came.

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Speaker 1: I just said fuck it and I left. I didn't

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Speaker 1: say anything to anybody.

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Speaker 3: You try, so no one can say you didn't try.

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Speaker 1: Do you support the move? How long would you have waited?

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Speaker 1: And should I have said anything? That's my question to you.

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Speaker 4: Because I'm a waiting three minutes. If it's may, maybe

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Speaker 4: I'll wait a little longer. But ninety minutes ridiculous. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I agree.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I I've had some people say, you know.

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Speaker 3: You anything, There's nothing I would wait ninety minutes for.

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Speaker 2: So I was kind of tired. I kind of put

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Speaker 2: my head back.

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Speaker 1: I think I fell asleep for a minute, so that

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Speaker 1: might be why it took as long.

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Speaker 2: Why I waited as long as I did. I was

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Speaker 2: there already.

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Speaker 1: It's like it's there is a sports betting element to this,

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Speaker 1: because there's that sunk cost fallacy. Like I've already devoted

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Speaker 1: time to this. I book the appointment, I showed up,

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Speaker 1: I filled out paperwork. Now I'm sitting in the room

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Speaker 1: and you kind of just want to see it through

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Speaker 1: and get it over with. But yeah, in hindsight, ninety

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Speaker 1: minutes is ridiculous. I should have left like forty five

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Speaker 1: minutes prior to that, but I didn't say anything. I

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Speaker 1: would have to beg somebody to take care of me.

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Speaker 3: That seems odd. I'll tell you that.

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Speaker 2: Thank you still to come.

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Speaker 1: MLB Futures talk with Sean Zarillo, But first a word

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Speaker 1: about DraftKings from the first Lady.

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Speaker 5: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where

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Speaker 5: new customers came bet five dollars and get two hundred

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Speaker 5: on the action and use your bonus bets on DraftKings

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Speaker 5: same game parlays for a shot at an even bigger payout.

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Speaker 5: To get started, use promo code Favorites when signing up

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Speaker 5: with DraftKings. Again, use Code Favorites when signing up with DraftKings.

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Speaker 5: Bet five bucks to get two hundred back and bonus bets.

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Speaker 5: If your bet wins, the crown is yours.

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Speaker 2: We dragged him back onto the pod.

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Speaker 1: Sean Zarillo, lead baseball analyst over at Actionnetwork dot Com

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Speaker 1: show on. We've talked WBC already. Now let's dip into

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Speaker 1: the meat of the baseball season, the twenty twenty six

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Speaker 1: MLB campaign. We're going to talk player futures primarily here.

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Speaker 1: We're definitely going to bring you back to talk team

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Speaker 1: futures as we get closer, butting up to the start

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Speaker 1: of the season and opening day, But overall, when do

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Speaker 1: you start your process? What does that look like preparing

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Speaker 1: for the grind of one sixty two. I mean, we've

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Speaker 1: all got to take time off in between the sports

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Speaker 1: that we spend the most time on. I imagine that

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Speaker 1: by now, especially with the WBC going on, the hey

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Speaker 1: is in the barn, so to speak. But when does

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Speaker 1: it start and when do you feel comfortable with where

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Speaker 1: you're at.

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Speaker 6: I am far from putting the hay in the barn.

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Speaker 6: The data models have not stopped running, the AI prompts

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Speaker 6: have not stopped prompting. In fact, when I go to

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Speaker 6: bed at like three am every night, I have anxiety

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Speaker 6: that I'm don't have like open car or something, just

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Speaker 6: running prompts for me on my computer getting more work done.

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Speaker 6: But we're doing our best here to handicap everything out

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Speaker 6: because I have to switch to sports like a UFC

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Speaker 6: pay per view as well this week. So it's just

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Speaker 6: NonStop for me at this point of the year. But

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Speaker 6: we've been going since early February in terms of like

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Speaker 6: writing content, getting the team futures out there, getting the

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Speaker 6: player props out there shortly thereafter, and certainly the WBC

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Speaker 6: ads some wrinkles into the process because starting on Friday,

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Speaker 6: I believe we've got eight games per day or something

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Speaker 6: like that going, so a lot of things to project out.

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Speaker 6: But certainly, just like in the absolute grind of this,

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Speaker 6: and it all starts with, you know, my team projections,

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Speaker 6: getting player projections, building that into a team projection, finding

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Speaker 6: the win totals. I can then reincorporate publicly available projections,

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Speaker 6: which I like to cite Pakoda fangrafts atc oopsie. I

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Speaker 6: think all of that gives me, you know, I have

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Speaker 6: my projection, which is sort of my baseline, but then

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Speaker 6: the variance of the publicly available projections not only the

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Speaker 6: win totals right, but also their playoff odds, their divisional odds,

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Speaker 6: et cetera, sort of gives me a range of outcomes

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Speaker 6: for where I expect these teams to fall. I can

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Speaker 6: then rerun my projections incorporating that range of variants and

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Speaker 6: how far apart the market expects the outcomes to be

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Speaker 6: for these teams. But even beyond that, I just don't

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Speaker 6: take the numbers at face value because there's still so

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Speaker 6: many anecdotal things you have to analyze, how off seasons

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Speaker 6: went for teams what their ownership situation is, like, whether

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Speaker 6: they're willing to spend in season. We have a potential

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Speaker 6: lockout looming, are team's going to be a little bit

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Speaker 6: more aggressive in terms of buying or selling this year

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Speaker 6: because they know that there may not be a twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty seven season. So I think a good example We're

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Speaker 6: not going to get into team futures today, but I

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Speaker 6: think a good example is a team like the Twins,

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Speaker 6: who the entire public projection market has them at about

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Speaker 6: seventy eight wins seventy six wins. Their win total is

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Speaker 6: seventy three and a half. I'm closer to seventy and

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Speaker 6: I haven't really massaged that projection at all. It is

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Speaker 6: how I feel about that team. But it is a

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Speaker 6: team who is dealing with ownership difficulty right now. They

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Speaker 6: just had to sell some minority shares. They did not

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Speaker 6: invest in their roster at any point, and that is

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Speaker 6: team who is not going to be adding pieces in season.

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Speaker 6: If anything, they're going to be subtracting pieces in season.

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Speaker 6: And I've seen some people try to leverage the opinion

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Speaker 6: that this will be a very bad team by in

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Speaker 6: fact betting them to be the worst team in baseball

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Speaker 6: at thirty to one, So not just taking a win

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Speaker 6: total under, but going all the way in terms of

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Speaker 6: leveraging that thesis that they will be very bad, but

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Speaker 6: way far apart from even what the projections are saying.

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Speaker 6: So yes, comparing everything, Yes, building my own stuff, but

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Speaker 6: also taking in some anecdotal information into account as well

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Speaker 6: to kind of drive my directional decision making with things ziel.

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Speaker 4: I think the one of the things that maybe you

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Speaker 4: spend time looking at or maybe you don't in the

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Speaker 4: off season is something that's become almost at given in

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Speaker 4: baseball every year, and that's Otani and Judge winning MVP.

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Speaker 3: I mean what they've won seven of the last ten.

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Speaker 4: I think back to back years they've each won in

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Speaker 4: the NL and l is it even worth looking like

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Speaker 4: price wise, I'd see Judges plus win eighty five Otani's

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Speaker 4: minus one thirty five. I mean, there's like injury rest's baseball.

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Speaker 4: There's injury risks that things can happen like they or

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Speaker 4: is it just like if they get through the season healthy,

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Speaker 4: they're just gonna put up such numbers, or is there

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Speaker 4: maybe voter fatigue. There's a lot of things that I

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Speaker 4: think about here. Is that market even worth exploring or

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Speaker 4: is it just something that you ignore.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, we also had the two favorites win for cy

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Speaker 6: Young last year as well in Scooble and schemes because

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Speaker 6: they stayed healthy. So last year was a very chalky

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Speaker 6: awards market because all the favorites stayed healthy for the

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Speaker 6: entire year. I think that that is extremely unlikely to

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Speaker 6: happen again, and I think as a result, one of

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Speaker 6: them probably loses their award category factor in poor performance

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Speaker 6: potentially or just poor variance. On top of that, I

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Speaker 6: think Otani is much safer than Judge because one otanidh's,

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Speaker 6: so he doesn't have the probability of getting hurt in

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Speaker 6: the field. He's only going to get hurt on the

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Speaker 6: base pass two he pitches, which adds to his wins

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Speaker 6: of replacement total. And even if he gets hurt as

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Speaker 6: a pitcher, he gets the DH and accumulate all the

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Speaker 6: winds above replacement he does a DH. I think Judge

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Speaker 6: is the likeliest one of those four to get hurt.

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Speaker 6: Judge has a lingering tow issue, which he said he

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Speaker 6: will have to monitor for the rest of his career.

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Speaker 6: But it's something that cannot be fixed, so if it

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Speaker 6: starts the flare up again, he's going to have to

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Speaker 6: miss time, and missing three weeks four weeks could be

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Speaker 6: enough to open the door for somebody else, like a

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Speaker 6: Bobby Woo junior or a Gunner Henderson or Julio Rodriguez

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Speaker 6: to potentially pass him in War ended up stealing the

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Speaker 6: war winds above. Replacement is the most important correlative stat

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Speaker 6: in terms of predicting the winner for these categories, and

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Speaker 6: you accumulate that one by being good, but two by

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Speaker 6: playing a full season, So it is buying large going

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Speaker 6: to come down to injury for these guys.

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Speaker 2: Schooble is the.

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Speaker 6: Only one of the four that I bet, only one

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Speaker 6: of the four favorites that I bet, and I think

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Speaker 6: it's because the guys behind him one Garrett Crochet is

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Speaker 6: very close to him in terms of talent, but the

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Speaker 6: injury likelihood of Schooble versus Crochet heavily favors Scooble. Crochet

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Speaker 6: is a much wider distribution in terms of his range

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Speaker 6: of outcomes. So it does come down to injury and

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Speaker 6: injury risk oftentimes for these favorites, and especially right now,

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Speaker 6: because these favorites seem to be kind of ahead above

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Speaker 6: the rest of their competition. And I did take shots

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Speaker 6: in all the markets, but you know, not necessarily big shots.

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Speaker 6: We're talking a fifth or a twentieth of a unit,

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Speaker 6: a tenth of a unit on some guys who are

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Speaker 6: like fifty to one or twenty to one, just to

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Speaker 6: win a couple of units and maybe have some amount

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Speaker 6: of leverage, but not really more than you know, a

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Speaker 6: third of a unit, four tenths of a unit, and

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Speaker 6: half a unit against any of the players in these categories.

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Speaker 6: So I did bet Schoobol, and I did take small

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Speaker 6: shots against the other three favorites, but as you pointed out,

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Speaker 6: it really does come down an injury.

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Speaker 4: Look, you're not looking, no no chance of looking at

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Speaker 4: a I think, like twenty plus pictures of one MVP,

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Speaker 4: any any chance or reason to look at I mean

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Speaker 4: Scooble and Schemes were up there in war. Is there

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Speaker 4: any like what are they around fifty to one? Any

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Speaker 4: is it worth throwing maybe some couchs change on either

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Speaker 4: one or.

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Speaker 6: Is I think enough people bet them. These guys would

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Speaker 6: normally be around seventy five to one or one hundred

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Speaker 6: to one. I think enough people have had that thesis

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Speaker 6: that they got bet down to fifty to one, forty

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Speaker 6: to one, and as a result, I think the value

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Speaker 6: has kind of been sucked out. I think they should

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Speaker 6: both be closer to seventy five to one.

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Speaker 2: God, what about the guys that moved around?

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Speaker 1: Is there anything that's changed for you in terms of projections,

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Speaker 1: player markets? Dylan Cees so just pulling some big names.

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Speaker 1: Cease to the Blue Jays, Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers,

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Speaker 1: Bobaschett is now with your New York Mets. What was

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Speaker 1: the biggest move for you in terms of the way

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Speaker 1: that you had to move things around and betting futures.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about the team aspect of it moving forward,

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Speaker 1: but how much did that change for those particular players

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Speaker 1: or any other that is a notable name.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Edwin Diaz becomes a huge favorite and the saves

301
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Speaker 6: leader market right by moving to the Dodgers. He's the

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Speaker 6: same pitcher, but he's now playing for a team projected

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Speaker 6: win one hundred and two games instead of ninety, So

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Speaker 6: you add like five saves that he has projected total.

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Speaker 6: I still think he's worth betting against. I think there's

306
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Speaker 6: other guys in that market we're targeting, but the likelihood

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Speaker 6: that Edward Diez finishes as the Saves leader obviously very high.

308
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Speaker 6: Kyle Tucker, who you just mentioned. You know, if Otani

309
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Speaker 6: gets hurt, I think the biggest beneficiary in the Wards

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Speaker 6: market is Kyle Tucker because Kyle Talker is now the

311
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Speaker 6: Docter's second best player and the likeliest war leader on

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Speaker 6: that team, and I believe I have him fourth overall

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Speaker 6: in NL war. So if Otani gets hurt and Kyle

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Speaker 6: Tucker is now the best player on the best team

315
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Speaker 6: in baseball and has a top three war total, Kyle

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Speaker 6: Tucker is going to be very much in the mix

317
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Speaker 6: for MVP. Dylan Cees, who you also mentioned, bent him.

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Speaker 6: I think Dylan ces is fascinating. I think all these

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Speaker 6: guys removed teams are fascinating, but especially when they're moving

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Speaker 6: to more analytically driven organizations. I do think that I

321
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Speaker 6: do think Toronto is better in terms of their analytical

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Speaker 6: staff and player development. They have more money to invest

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Speaker 6: than a team like the Podres. But Dylan Sees is

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Speaker 6: a guy who's been very unlucky in terms of batting

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Speaker 6: average on balls and play and other luck categories. That

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Speaker 6: now he's going from a decent two below average defensive

327
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Speaker 6: team and now is playing for a top three, if

328
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Speaker 6: not the best defensive team in baseball. So he's going

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Speaker 6: to get a lot luckier in terms of the defensive

330
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Speaker 6: stuff behind him. But also he's going to a very

331
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Speaker 6: forward thinking front office who may make some player development

332
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Speaker 6: modifications to him, new pitch types, new arm angle. You

333
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Speaker 6: know they're going to do something with Dylan sees to

334
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Speaker 6: try to improve him a little bit beyond just signing him.

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Speaker 6: Ceases fascinating from an awards perspective because his graph is

336
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Speaker 6: distribution graph is the widest amongst all pitchers that I project.

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Speaker 6: He has the biggest bus potential of the biggest boom

338
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Speaker 6: potential of any pitcher out there. But that right tail,

339
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Speaker 6: that boom potential I think is going to hit because

340
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Speaker 6: of the player development modifications that Toronto likely makes to

341
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Speaker 6: him and also the defense playing behind him. So ceases.

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Speaker 6: Actually guy that I have bet I'm waiting on Tucker.

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Speaker 6: If Otani gets hurt, I would consider betting Tucker. I

344
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Speaker 6: don't think there's any point in betting in Tucker le

345
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Speaker 6: Atani is healthy. Ceases the guy I bet for Cy

346
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Speaker 6: Young for al Cy Young, which I did also bet

347
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Speaker 6: to t ourg School in that category, but Seazes is

348
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Speaker 6: one of my backup options. I think he was forty

349
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Speaker 6: to one and should probably be closer to twenty to one.

350
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Speaker 6: I think the bat luck he's had in the past

351
00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:02,640
Speaker 6: have sort of tanked his odds, but I also think

352
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Speaker 6: there's actual room and a path to improvement. Give them

353
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Speaker 6: the new team's now.

354
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Speaker 4: With last year you catched, I believe would you you

355
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Speaker 4: had Max Freed.

356
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Speaker 6: Freed wins forty to one shorter. RBIs at fifty to one,

357
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Speaker 6: and I think we hit wit hits leader for the

358
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Speaker 6: second consecutive season. Not as big as odds, but he

359
00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:22,840
Speaker 6: came surging late as everybody else in front of him

360
00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:23,280
Speaker 6: got hurt.

361
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Speaker 4: The wins market, to me, is very interesting, just because

362
00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:30,880
Speaker 4: there's so much variance right in Yeah, so is there right?

363
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,400
Speaker 6: I obviously you're you can only cap the winners so high.

364
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:35,320
Speaker 6: The winner's not gonna get more than like twenty, right,

365
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:36,600
Speaker 6: So the separation is.

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Speaker 4: Narrow Scooble's obviously the leader, but I'm assuming you are

367
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Speaker 4: looking a bit more down the board.

368
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Speaker 3: Anyone worth mentioning?

369
00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:51,280
Speaker 6: Yeah, I like his teammate. I like Froberveldez. I bet

370
00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,720
Speaker 6: him at about thirty to one. I make him closer

371
00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:57,400
Speaker 6: to twenty to one. The Tigers sort of fell off

372
00:16:57,440 --> 00:16:59,200
Speaker 6: in the second half of last year. One because they

373
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:00,920
Speaker 6: use their bullpen a bunch the first half because they

374
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,440
Speaker 6: have no pitching depth behind school. But two, they use

375
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Speaker 6: their bullpen so much in the second half of the

376
00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:07,960
Speaker 6: twenty twenty four season and then into the twenty twenty

377
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Speaker 6: four playoffs because they just decided to go chaos ball

378
00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:13,639
Speaker 6: and pitch every game like it's a baseball tournament or

379
00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:16,560
Speaker 6: baseball playoffs, and they were throwing new guys out every inning.

380
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:20,880
Speaker 6: Aj Hinch, you know, an analytics oriented manager made some

381
00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,119
Speaker 6: good decisions in terms of in the moment getting his

382
00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 6: team where it needed to be, But I think they

383
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:27,560
Speaker 6: ended up paying the piper. In the second half of

384
00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,680
Speaker 6: last year. They added fromber Veldez, who was an innings

385
00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:34,359
Speaker 6: zeter to their staff. Goes deep into games and playing

386
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,800
Speaker 6: for a team I project for a round ninety wins,

387
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:40,040
Speaker 6: high eighties wins going as deep into games as he does.

388
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,720
Speaker 6: Fromber projects I believe seventh on my wins leader board

389
00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:45,440
Speaker 6: for this year. He's right between Brian Woo and ahead

390
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:49,280
Speaker 6: of Paul Skins in terms of winning the category. So

391
00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:55,119
Speaker 6: Fromber twenty to one or better. Fine, George Kirby, I was.

392
00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:57,800
Speaker 3: Gonna I was gonna ask about Mariners, Kirby and do Or.

393
00:17:58,040 --> 00:17:59,879
Speaker 4: I know you've always loved the Mariners, and it seemed like,

394
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,200
Speaker 4: I mean, I was just going on the board Kirby

395
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,159
Speaker 4: and Gilbert around thirty five forty to one on a

396
00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:07,679
Speaker 4: team that is going to be really good, that seems

397
00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:08,640
Speaker 4: like they're worth a look.

398
00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, the Mariners have my highest projected win total in

399
00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,399
Speaker 6: the AL. It's also in terms of team futures and

400
00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:18,560
Speaker 6: player futures combined, it's by far my biggest portfolio this year.

401
00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:21,840
Speaker 6: I believe I have around three and a half. I

402
00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:23,640
Speaker 6: think I have four and a half. I have five

403
00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,359
Speaker 6: and a half units on Astro's team futures if you

404
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,399
Speaker 6: include or sorry, Mariners team futures, if you include my

405
00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:31,920
Speaker 6: correlated bets on the Astras under and the Astros miss

406
00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:33,919
Speaker 6: the playoffs because those are correlated, it is kind of

407
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,359
Speaker 6: one portfolio. But I have three and a half units

408
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,800
Speaker 6: on the A or the Mariners straight up, and then

409
00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,800
Speaker 6: I have another one point three other player futures, and

410
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,760
Speaker 6: I think the wins leader. George Kirby is definitely on

411
00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:49,160
Speaker 6: that card. I actually prefer they're K leader odds, though,

412
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:50,680
Speaker 6: and I should. This is a good time to point

413
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:54,960
Speaker 6: out I think there's substantially more value in general on

414
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,680
Speaker 6: milestone like two hundred plus k's two hundred ten plus

415
00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:02,119
Speaker 6: k's sixteen plus wins for Fromber is the only wins

416
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:04,960
Speaker 6: milestone that I placed, But it's actually a bigger edge

417
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,920
Speaker 6: than his outright prop. And I think in general, because

418
00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 6: people do not bet or project milestones, they're a little

419
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,280
Speaker 6: bit harder to bet. The limits are a little bit lower,

420
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:17,080
Speaker 6: but milestones over unders I found handicapping them out this

421
00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 6: preseason offers substantially bigger edges than the category leader props.

422
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:23,960
Speaker 6: The category leader props the biggest edges of us getting

423
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:26,320
Speaker 6: The biggest edge I have is George Kirby at like

424
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 6: two and a half percent on the wins leader market,

425
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 6: and he is the one Mariner I bet amongst that

426
00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:32,680
Speaker 6: group of guys you mentioned, because he goes to go

427
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 6: deepest into games. He's the most reliably to go deep

428
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,439
Speaker 6: into games. He also tends to have the highest floor

429
00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:39,639
Speaker 6: amongst the Mariner pitchers, but he stills the room for

430
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 6: upside a little bit as well.

431
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,439
Speaker 4: But that's why you prefer Kirby over Gilbert, because I

432
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 4: was thinking, like, if I like that, do I sprinkle

433
00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:48,560
Speaker 4: on both? Because it's obviously a really good team, and

434
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:50,400
Speaker 4: then there's a lot of varrants where those wins come from.

435
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:52,680
Speaker 4: But do you think Kirby has the higher floor or

436
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,159
Speaker 4: more reliable to go deeper and still has more upside?

437
00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:57,360
Speaker 6: So here's my second point. On top of the more

438
00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,920
Speaker 6: value in Milestone Marcus as the pairs as compared to

439
00:19:59,920 --> 00:20:03,080
Speaker 6: the leader markets, there's always a better way about somebody,

440
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 6: and I'm going to take the most optimal approach for

441
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 6: that specific player than I will for just taking the

442
00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 6: biggest odds for that specific player or that specific category.

443
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:13,640
Speaker 6: We can compare it when we get to team futures.

444
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 6: There's there's like a hilarious discrepancy with the Rays and

445
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 6: a future for the Rays and somebody with the Rays

446
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 6: relatives to the Rays playoff podds. I bet Gilbert K

447
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 6: leader props. I bet Gilbert K ladder props. I bet

448
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:29,159
Speaker 6: Brian WUK leader props. I bet Brian WUK ladder props.

449
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 6: So I'm talking like two hundred two ten plus two

450
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,920
Speaker 6: twenty plus. I think there's much bigger edges on those

451
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:38,159
Speaker 6: props for Gilbert than there is in his wins Leader market,

452
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 6: but those outcomes are essentially correlated. In order to get

453
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 6: to the two hundred plus strikeout level, he's going to

454
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 6: need to start enough games to be in consideration for

455
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,360
Speaker 6: the wins leader market. So I'm just trying to optimize

456
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 6: my betting card, in my futures card in terms of

457
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 6: the best possible bet for each player, not necessarily the

458
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 6: biggest odds or the best portfolio for specific category. So

459
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 6: I just found more value betting on Gilbert elsewhere than

460
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,680
Speaker 6: I did on wins Leader Kirby. The most optimal bet

461
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 6: for me was wins Leader. I don't think I have

462
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 6: any other bets on Kirby. If I do, it might

463
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,879
Speaker 6: be like two hundred plus strikeouts, but buying large, I

464
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:13,440
Speaker 6: allocated Kirby wins Leader, WU strikeouts and Gilbert strikeouts.

465
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 4: Are you thinking about it the same way for RBIs?

466
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 4: Do you have anyone you're targeting there?

467
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 6: Schwarber we cashed last year. I'm right on Shwrover again

468
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,640
Speaker 6: this year at thirty five to one. So the whole

469
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,639
Speaker 6: thesis was Shrober last year was he used to hit

470
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 6: laid off. He's moving down a second flipping lineup spots

471
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,159
Speaker 6: with Trey Turner, should add ten to fifteen RBI to

472
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:34,120
Speaker 6: his total. I projected him at twenty to one last year.

473
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 6: They gave me fifty to one. I projected him at

474
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,640
Speaker 6: twenty one last year. They still gave me thirty five

475
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:40,399
Speaker 6: to one. So yeah, I'm back in on shoorb this

476
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 6: year one hundred percent. But yeah, like buying large, I

477
00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:45,439
Speaker 6: did see bigger edges than the milestone market and the

478
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 6: ninety plus one hundred plus RBI thresholds as compared to

479
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 6: the outright leader market. I think the guy who had

480
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,400
Speaker 6: the biggest edges actually in my outright markets was shoe

481
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 6: Heo Tani home run leader, RBI leader. I make home

482
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,160
Speaker 6: run lead about four to one for Otani. I make

483
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 6: him plus six sixty for RBI leader. I think Otani

484
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 6: went up a level. I think, you know, when you

485
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 6: look at the projections, the offensive projections even between Judge

486
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 6: and Otani, Judge and Soto judges at like ninety percent

487
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 6: above the major league average. Otani is right there. But

488
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 6: I think Otani we saw with the performance in the

489
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,119
Speaker 6: postseason last year. With the performance that he had in

490
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:25,439
Speaker 6: the second half, even though he projects like ten points

491
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 6: behind Judge in terms of offensive value, I think he's

492
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 6: right there, and the pitching aspect doesn't really scare me.

493
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 6: I still expect him to play every day. His median

494
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 6: projections are higher than judges for both home run and RBI.

495
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 6: It doesn't matter that he's hitting lead off and Judge

496
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 6: doesn't for me. The Dodgers' lineup is so deep there

497
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:46,439
Speaker 6: should be plenty of opportunities there. So yeah, Judge Otani

498
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 6: home run leader or Tani RBI leader among the leader bets,

499
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 6: even though he's near the top of the board, were

500
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,119
Speaker 6: my biggest actual projected editors for leaders.

501
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:56,880
Speaker 1: Well, people are gonna love to hear that. So I'm

502
00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: calming down the article. Here, you guys can go and

503
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 1: check this out. The futures bets for player projections here

504
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot Com. Rookie pitcher for the Blue Jays,

505
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 1: tray Is Savage. You're all over this guy. What do

506
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 1: you like about him? And how are you betting into

507
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 1: his play this year?

508
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, he is a really unique arm angle that. Uh,

509
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 6: this is something we can discuss in more detail with

510
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:25,400
Speaker 6: team futures. But basically there's been a shift in baseball

511
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,439
Speaker 6: in terms of home awat splits because teams now have

512
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 6: access to this traject pitching machine that if you ever

513
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 6: went to like ESPN Zone or David Busters and they

514
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 6: have those machines that like you could be a hockey

515
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 6: goalie and it like shoots it looks like a player

516
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 6: is coming at you and it like shoots the puck

517
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 6: out a little slots or they have it for baseball,

518
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 6: they have it for other sports as well. It's basically

519
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 6: like a simulator. And what they can do with this

520
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,679
Speaker 6: traject machine now, which they can only install in their

521
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 6: home parks because it's a humongous machine, but basically teams

522
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 6: are able to get a lot better read on opposing

523
00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:00,200
Speaker 6: pitchers because they're actually seeing like what the army angle

524
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 6: would look like in a game, so I've got straight

525
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 6: over the top or if he's a little bit three

526
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 6: quarter or if he's more side arm. They're able to

527
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 6: get real practice abs off of a better than a

528
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 6: pitching machine, but at home, not on the road. So

529
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 6: Trey Savage is the guy who's going to dominate in

530
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 6: his home starts. I think he actually did he not

531
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 6: set the major league record I believe for strikeouts in

532
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 6: a playoff game or a World Series game last year.

533
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,199
Speaker 6: The main concern with you Savage is that he was

534
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 6: in high school or college two years ago. He basically

535
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 6: just shot up through the minor leagues. But he did

536
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 6: throw roughly one hundred and thirty combined innings between the miners,

537
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 6: majors and postseason last year. They've talked about limiting his

538
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 6: innings or at least monitoring his innings. This year, they

539
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 6: have signed six starters. They signed Max Schurzer. They have

540
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 6: a lot of depth. But I still think you Savage

541
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 6: improves from about one hundred and thirty innings from last

542
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 6: year to closer to one sixty one seventy this year,

543
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 6: And if he's going to get there, he's going to

544
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 6: strike out two hundred plus hitters. This was one of

545
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,719
Speaker 6: my biggest edges in terms of milestone props. Jacob Marcy's

546
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 6: told them Based Ladder was my other biggest edge in

547
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 6: terms of milestone props. When I was sitting here at home,

548
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 6: I was unable to get the money down that I

549
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 6: wanted on those props, and as a result, ended up

550
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 6: traveling out of state and driving three hours each way

551
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 6: right before that two foot blizzard that we got here

552
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:16,639
Speaker 6: in New York and round tripping it all within twenty

553
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 6: four hours. So I could get down on most of

554
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 6: these props, but especially the tray Ya Savage prop. So yeah,

555
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 6: I really like you Savage this year. He is the

556
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 6: Ale favorite, I believe for Rookie of the Year, alongside

557
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:31,119
Speaker 6: his teammate Kazuma Kamoto who came over from Japan, but

558
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 6: essentially Ya Savage's Rookie of the Year odds kind of

559
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 6: a line or not even align with They fall short

560
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 6: of his odds to get two hundred plus ks. So

561
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 6: why would I bet Ya Savage at six to one

562
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 6: for Rookie of the Year when in order to win

563
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:45,880
Speaker 6: that award he probably needs to get two hundred plus

564
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 6: k's and I can get nine to one on his

565
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:50,159
Speaker 6: two hundred plus k prop. So it just goes back

566
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 6: to finding best ways to beck Guys, this guy's the

567
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 6: favorite for Rookie of the Year. You're getting better odds

568
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 6: on his one ninety plus and two hundred k plus

569
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 6: odds than you are for Rookie the Year, and he

570
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 6: probably needs to hit that in order to hit the

571
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 6: other I.

572
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 4: Got a in two in the weeds questions one stolen

573
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 4: bases props? What Chandler Simpson is my guy? That guy

574
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 4: can fly. He's probably the fastest person in baseball. And

575
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 4: there's obviously stats on that.

576
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 6: You would know that as this home the first time

577
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,360
Speaker 6: ever in baseball, and it's like buy a lot?

578
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 3: Is he and that they called him up last year?

579
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 3: He was up for bad?

580
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 4: He was actually he looked a little better than I

581
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 4: thought at the plate at times. Is he developing? Is

582
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 4: he gonna be up enough? And is he developing enough

583
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,959
Speaker 4: where he's going to be on base enough to be

584
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 4: a factor in that market? And if not, is there

585
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 4: anyone you like it? Or either the lead and stolen

586
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 4: bases or any stolen based props.

587
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's two guys that really like from a stolen

588
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,439
Speaker 6: based perspective. From the outright three guys I like if

589
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 6: you include the milestone, Simpson is absolutely on that list.

590
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,400
Speaker 6: Simpson is basically Billy Hamilton, except he strikes out half

591
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 6: as often as Billy Hamilton. Billy Hamilton had a career

592
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,959
Speaker 6: twenty percent strikeout rate. Simpson was at ten percent last year.

593
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 6: So even though he doesn't walk or get on base.

594
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 6: He puts the ball in play always, and the speed

595
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 6: is going to get him on base because he's so

596
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 6: ridiculously fast. As I said, the fastest home in the

597
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 6: first time in the stackass Era by like a tenth

598
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 6: of a second, which means he's probably the fastest ever.

599
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 6: I doubt anybody before the stackass Era was running as

600
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 6: fast as this dude. Now I do project value on

601
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:21,399
Speaker 6: his outright prop. I make him about plus four fifty.

602
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 6: I bet him at five to one. It's not great odds.

603
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 6: I also show odds his biggest edge, My biggest edge

604
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 6: of any prop was Simpson forty plus steals. I make

605
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:32,959
Speaker 6: that minus one seventy. You have to lay minus one

606
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 6: oh five to do it. That's the twelve percent edge

607
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:40,400
Speaker 6: fifty Simpson fifty plus is plus three ten. I make

608
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 6: that plus two sixty. He's going to need to get

609
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 6: to fifty plus in order to win the category. So

610
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 6: I think those are all very solid for channels. You

611
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 6: think he's going to be up for most of the year, Yeah, absolutely,

612
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 6: he's good.

613
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 3: And then.

614
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 6: The other backup guy. I just wanted to mention for

615
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 6: outright slater there that I really like Victor Scott is

616
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 6: twenty five to one. I think Victor Scott will be

617
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 6: up all your Cardinals, a rebuilding Cardinals team, and Victor

618
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 6: Scott's guy who's stolen one hundred plus bases in a

619
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 6: minor league season, he will be in the mix as well.

620
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 4: And my final question is is there any super in

621
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 4: the weeds? This suspect completely speculative. Is there anyone or

622
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 4: do you think about this in player awards markets, anyone

623
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 4: that you were thinking about that could be moved during

624
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 4: the season that could end up in a much better

625
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 4: you know, they might end up in a hitter's part,

626
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 4: they might a much better team and then accumulate a

627
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 4: lot of wins. Is there anyone specifically that you're thinking

628
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 4: about could fit that mold or is that just too

629
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 4: hard From a speculation perspective.

630
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 6: It's definitely speculating. I think the bigger concern with the

631
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 6: awards is not even like ending up in a better spot,

632
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 6: but switching leagues and being disqualified for winning your award.

633
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 6: I think the best player who could get moved this

634
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 6: year is could Tell Marteg There's already been some rumblings

635
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 6: about that Arizona may not have a five hundred team

636
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 6: this year. They haven't been the most willing to spend historically,

637
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 6: and I think he seemed a little bit disgruntled at

638
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 6: the end of the year. There was not only the

639
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 6: off the field incident with the fan, but also his

640
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 6: teammates like not standing up for him, and he seemed

641
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 6: a little bit mad about that. So I think it

642
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 6: tell Marte can end up switching leagues, but that's purely speculation,

643
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 6: and he could end up staying in the same league

644
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 6: as well. I guess Scooble theoretically could be the other

645
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 6: top player move because schools in the final year of

646
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 6: his deal in pitching for a contract. But unless the

647
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:25,960
Speaker 6: Dodgers are sending back show Aotani, I don't think the

648
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 6: Tigers are going to move off of him yet.

649
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 1: A right last one for me. Cal Raley took the

650
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 1: league by storm last year. He got to that epic

651
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 1: sixty home run mark. Is there a way to either

652
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 1: fade that or lean into it? What is his home

653
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 1: run crop for the year. I would think people are

654
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 1: going to race to the over and that the under

655
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 1: might just just given the natural variance of baseball, that

656
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 1: the under should be a play here.

657
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on that?

658
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 6: I have cal Raleigh at thirty eight point eight. Homers,

659
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 6: that's not just my projection. That's an hour virgial weighted average,

660
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 6: a bunch of publicly available productions. The market has him

661
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 6: at forty point five, and I show a five and

662
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 6: a half percent edge to the under at forty point five. Now,

663
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 6: it's not just purely a calculation of like forty point

664
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 6: five minus thirty eight point eight, it's a bunch of

665
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 6: simulations and how often he goes under that forty point five.

666
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 6: I think a lot of it is probably related to injury,

667
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 6: not even just regression, but as a catcher, catcher is

668
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 6: the likeliest position where players get injured. Foul tips off

669
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 6: the hand that break a finger, fell tips you know,

670
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 6: off the chest or off the face that cause a

671
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 6: concussion or cause an injury. So catcher is a very

672
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 6: injury oriented position. Center fielder as well, very injury oriented

673
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 6: because the dude dive for fly balls and end up

674
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 6: crashing into a teammate or end up getting themselves hurt.

675
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 6: So I think a lot of it is the injury factor.

676
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 6: I bet Julio Rodriguez for al MVP. I think Julio

677
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 6: is the better MVP candidate.

678
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 2: On that team.

679
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 6: But if you are looking for a way to fade

680
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 6: cal Rawley, the home run under certainly at forty and

681
00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 6: a half showed up is a recommended bet. I don't

682
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 6: know if it's going to be a I bet that

683
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 6: I end up placing, but it is one that popped

684
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 6: up as an.

685
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 1: Edge Sean Zarillo. You can find all of his work

686
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot com. Two episodes with Sean this week,

687
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 1: good stuff.

688
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 2: Appreciate the time.

689
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 1: Make sure you go and check out the app Action

690
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 1: Network on the website actionnetwork dot com and the Payoff

691
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 1: Pitch podcast. We'll have divisional previews available in the coming

692
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 1: days and weeks and during the season. Best Bet episodes

693
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 1: every Monday, Tuesday and Friday.

694
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 2: Been so much fun catching up with you, Sean. Thanks

695
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 2: for the time, guys, Thank you for having me.

696
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 6: Look forward to talking to you futureson.

697
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 2: Thanks BROB And that'll do it for today's episode.

698
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 1: Special Thanks to our guest over the last two Shan Zarillo,

699
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 1: Gifford Gold, David Paine, our producer statsound to Evan Abrams.

700
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: More great content coming at you next week The Favorites.

701
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 1: We'll return on Tuesday, and as always, you can catch

702
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 1: it right here on the Action Network YouTube page or

703
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 1: wherever you download your favorite podcasts. We'll see you next

704
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: time here on the Favorites presented by DraftKings. The Crown

705
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 1: is yours.

706
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

707
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

708
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,720
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