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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing into spec I'm saying it to cash touchdown.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to wind. That's incredible, big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabata and we are

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Speaker 1: What is up? Everyone? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast

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Speaker 1: presented by bet MGM. I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and

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Speaker 1: this is your NFL Week eleven betting preview. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk about our favorite sides, totals, teasers, survivor picks, underdog

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Speaker 1: money lines, and of course crack open our weekly Sunday

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Speaker 1: six pack of against the spread bets with the help,

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Speaker 1: of course, of my co host, the Prime Minister of

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Speaker 1: Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck good stuff four and two last week.

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Speaker 1: I know you're feeling six, so hope you feel better.

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Speaker 1: But what's going on?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I got apologies to the audience if I'm a

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Speaker 2: little briefer than usual, sound a little offense. Yeah, I

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Speaker 2: have an awful flu. I always get one around this

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Speaker 2: time of the year. Just run down from the grind

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Speaker 2: and catch it somewhere and sadly there's no days off.

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Speaker 2: Another good week for the podcast, even though, yeah, missed

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Speaker 2: extra points. I could deal with college I know that

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Speaker 2: they're gonna it's gonna happen sometimes. But the NFL, whenever

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Speaker 2: you lose a bat in the NFL by the hook,

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Speaker 2: I'm a missed extra point. It's extra brutal.

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Speaker 1: Do you know what makes it worse? So, you know,

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Speaker 1: since they moved it back in twenty fifteen, the extra

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Speaker 1: point league average went from about ninety nine percent to

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Speaker 1: about ninety three ninety four percent every year right until

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Speaker 1: this year. This year extra points are getting hit ninety

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Speaker 1: seven point five percent quip. That will be the highest

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Speaker 1: ever by a mile in the you know, moved back era.

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Speaker 1: So part of that is I think teams are just

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Speaker 1: going for two more. That's that makes it hurt even more.

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Speaker 1: It's only two and a half percent.

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Speaker 2: Yeah great, but as always, who cares. We're on to

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Speaker 2: week eleven.

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Speaker 1: Let's do it before we jump into the Thursday night

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Speaker 1: football slate. Just a reminders that no matter what sports

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Speaker 1: you like to bet on, Action Network has you covered

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Speaker 1: all year round. If you're into betting hockey, check out

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Speaker 1: our NHL Betting podcast line change you're like at NBA.

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Speaker 1: We've got buckets our NBA pod if you're into college

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Speaker 1: football or college hoops coming up Big bets on campus. So,

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Speaker 1: so you want to see the full lineup of action podcasts,

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Speaker 1: just visit actionnetwork dot Com Slash Podcasts. You can see

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Speaker 1: all of them that we have to offer some good

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Speaker 1: ones in there. It's Actionnetwork dot Com Slash podcast All right,

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Speaker 1: let's get in two Thursday Night Football, Week eleven. It's

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Speaker 1: not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football. So we got the Bengals

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Speaker 1: going to Baltimore to take on your Ravens.

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Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you.

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Speaker 1: Ravens are favored by three and a half. The total

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Speaker 1: is sitting around forty six at bet MGM, and would

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Speaker 1: love to get your thoughts right off the back, because

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Speaker 1: I don't think anybody knows Ravens betting better than you.

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Speaker 2: So what you got some big injury news that came through,

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Speaker 2: which doesn't help the bet. That I sort of like

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Speaker 2: and I hate Thursday Night Football, but at least this

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Speaker 2: is a good matchup. Is that it looks like Trey

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Speaker 2: Anderson's gonna play. I don't think he's gonna play. And

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Speaker 2: Rodney Stanley's out, so that's even bigger with the pressure

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Speaker 2: that he can generate, although he might not be at

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent although I think he was off the

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Speaker 2: injury report today. Marlon Humphrey also is probably going to

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Speaker 2: be out, and he's probably he's one of the most

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Speaker 2: underrated cornerbacks as far as just what he does for

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Speaker 2: the entire unit is flexibility and the cornerbacker gets a

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Speaker 2: little thin quick. T Higgins is also out for the Bengals,

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Speaker 2: which hurts their passing attack a little bit. But Burrow's

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Speaker 2: playing extremely well right now. He's one hundred percent healthy.

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Speaker 2: I think that he's gonna have a good game here.

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Speaker 2: Although the Ravens secondary and Ravens defense in particular with

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Speaker 2: Mike McDaniel. Mike McDonald has caused Burrow some issues. A

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Speaker 2: lot of the simulated pressures and pre stap stuff that

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Speaker 2: the Ravens do. Burrow has struggled when the Ravens defense

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Speaker 2: is at full strength. But missing Humphrey, that's going to

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Speaker 2: hurt here. On the other side of the ball, the

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Speaker 2: Ravens offense, you know, it's had its ups and downs,

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Speaker 2: and it's in this new scheme. But I've liked what

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Speaker 2: I've seen, you know. So there's some games where there's

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Speaker 2: been drops. There's other games where there's just red zone issues.

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Speaker 2: Lamar and his deep ball hasn't been as cleaned in

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Speaker 2: the past couple of games. But I think that they're

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Speaker 2: in for a big day here against a Bengals defense

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Speaker 2: that I think is a complete fraud. I thought that

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Speaker 2: they were, I was lower than the Bengals defense in

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Speaker 2: the entire market, even tho I have a lot of

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Speaker 2: respect for blu an Arimo, their defensive coordinator. He you know,

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Speaker 2: he's very good at making adjustments in game second half

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Speaker 2: and using a lot of different defenses. Now it's not

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Speaker 2: going to be a predominantly manned defense, which is the

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Speaker 2: way that you slow down this Ravens offense this year.

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Speaker 2: So that works in the raid and savor. But what

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Speaker 2: people fail to forget last year two things the Bengals

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Speaker 2: faced I think like nine or ten backup quarterbacks, including

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Speaker 2: one in the postseason against Baltimore again almost lost if

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Speaker 2: the Ravens gonna sneak the ball, and they lost both

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Speaker 2: their safeties and they were two really good safeties, and

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Speaker 2: that provides you a defensive coornator, a good defensive quarter

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Speaker 2: that makes adjustments. That provides a defense quarter with so

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Speaker 2: much more flexibility because you have that stability on the

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Speaker 2: back end, and if you have two really smart veteran

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Speaker 2: safeties then you can do so much. So losing both them,

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Speaker 2: there's been a big drop off also in the in

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Speaker 2: the tackling department, which is one of the reasons why

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Speaker 2: you've seen the Bengals, you know, run defense has fallen

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Speaker 2: off a cliff. They also sti't have much depth along

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Speaker 2: the defensive line, so they're just so relyingt on Hendrickson

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Speaker 2: and Reader and you know Hubbard's gonna be out here,

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Speaker 2: so it's not a really deep, reliable defensive line, which

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Speaker 2: hurts them as well. So I think Lamar can have

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Speaker 2: success with his legs here and then he could attack

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Speaker 2: the secondary, where I think the Ravens will have a

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Speaker 2: significant advantage the Bengals defense, even including last week which

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Speaker 2: they got torched, they've been living off of lucky turnovers, fumbles,

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Speaker 2: red zone luck. Back to that Seattle game. Seattle almost

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Speaker 2: doubles them up in yards, doesn't just can't score in

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Speaker 2: the red zone for the last two drives of the game,

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Speaker 2: and the red zone don't score a single point. You

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Speaker 2: go back to the even the Bills game Bills with

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Speaker 2: the Fluke fumble in the red zone forty nine ers,

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Speaker 2: same thing. They had four hundred and sixty yards of

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Speaker 2: offense if you remove turnovers. This Bengals defense bottom five

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Speaker 2: overall EPA per play, bottom five drop back EPA. So

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Speaker 2: I think the Ravens offense is going to have a

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Speaker 2: good night. I think Burrow will do enough to keep

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Speaker 2: this close trend wise. You know, Burrow is a dog

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Speaker 2: over a field goal, always in an appetising bet, whereas you know,

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Speaker 2: taking Lamar Jackson historically, you know, again last week even

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Speaker 2: if it was Fluky, taking him as favorite of overfield

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Speaker 2: but hasn't worked out. So I would lean Ravens here,

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Speaker 2: but not it's not vetable to me. I would I

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Speaker 2: would probably bet the ribbons if it's a flat three,

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Speaker 2: but I'm probably gonna try out the over for just

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Speaker 2: a little bit. Although that's just apparently that's just giving

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Speaker 2: away money. Because primetime unders on Island game unders thirty

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Speaker 2: and seven when you include international games, think they for

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Speaker 2: at eleven in a row it's really unbelievable. But I

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Speaker 2: think this this total is a bit depressed. You know,

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Speaker 2: both teams can get to twenty four here at least.

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Speaker 1: It's tough for me to get get on the over

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Speaker 1: just because I mean, for the Bengals, we have Tea

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Speaker 1: Higgers out and Chase is kind of banged up. And

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Speaker 1: if I had to make a better on this game,

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Speaker 1: I would lean Bengals. You know, it's just hard to

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Speaker 1: fade Burrow fifteen and two against the spread in his

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Speaker 1: career as a dog of a field goal or more,

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Speaker 1: he just seems to always on the way.

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Speaker 2: And this is but if he doesn't have Higgins and

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Speaker 2: Chase is banged up and you're still trusting him, that

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Speaker 2: means you're counting on the Bengals to score points.

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Speaker 1: I get what you're saying. Like the Bengals defense, it

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Speaker 1: hasn't been good, but this Ravens I could still see

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Speaker 1: this Ravens offense coming out a little sleepy here. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is what This is what happens on Thursday night games,

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Speaker 1: This is what happens in divisional games, and this is

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Speaker 1: generally what happens to the Ravens when they are favored.

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Speaker 1: You know, I think the handicap is correct, Like the

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Speaker 1: Bengals defense is probably overrated in the market, but in

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Speaker 1: this division especially, I feel like these trends we you know,

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Speaker 1: we've seen them time and time again just play out

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Speaker 1: and every time we try to go against them, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't really work out. So you know, I mean, I'm

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Speaker 1: just saying it's hard to go against fifteen to two.

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Speaker 1: For me, this is just AFC North football. I'm just

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Speaker 1: gonna enjoy the game, all right. That wraps up Ravens Bengals.

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Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football Now was jumping to the week number

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Speaker 1: eleven Sunday six Facts Thursday for Action. Let's crack open

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Speaker 1: the Sunday six pack talked about before Good week for

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Speaker 1: US four and two thirty seven thirty three. Me and

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Speaker 1: I am a first this week. So I will start

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Speaker 1: it off with the first pick of the week eleven

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Speaker 1: Sunday six pack and go with the Los Angeles Rams

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Speaker 1: plus one at home against the Seattle Seahawks. Like the

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Speaker 1: Spots and the matchup for the Rams coming off of

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Speaker 1: a bye, getting Matthew Stafford back at quarterback, and I

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Speaker 1: think that you know, you combine coming off to buy

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Speaker 1: with and the Brett Rippon start the game before, and

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Speaker 1: I just think, you know, everyone's kind of sleeping on

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Speaker 1: the Rams a little bit and doesn't realize that this

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Speaker 1: is a pretty pretty even matchup, and the Rams probably

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Speaker 1: should be favored by like a half point to a

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Speaker 1: point because even if you don't remove even if you

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Speaker 1: don't remove the Brett repping game, the Rams have a

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Speaker 1: better schedule adjusted point differential than the Seahawks. The Rams

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Speaker 1: have the better quarterback, and I mean not just my opinion,

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Speaker 1: I think the numbers back it up. This year EPA

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Speaker 1: per play Matthew Stafford fifteenth, Gino Smith nineteenth. We saw

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Speaker 1: this matchup in Week one. Granted there were some injuries

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Speaker 1: on the Seattle side, but it's still notable that the

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Speaker 1: Rams outgained the Seahawks four twenty six to one eighty

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Speaker 1: and doubled more than doubled them up in first downs

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Speaker 1: twenty seven to thirteen. And that was without Hooper cut

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Speaker 1: who's going to be back. And I think having Cup

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Speaker 1: is big because you know, the Seahawks add Witherspoon to

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Speaker 1: the middle of that defense and he has been causing

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Speaker 1: some havoc and creating some incompletions and whatnot. But now

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Speaker 1: you're talking about one of the best receivers in the game,

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Speaker 1: so he's gonna you know, Cup's gonna get some wins

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Speaker 1: in there as well. And I think that the strength

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Speaker 1: of schedule creates some value as well, because the Rams

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Speaker 1: have faced the fourth toughest slate of opposing defenses by DVOA,

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Speaker 1: Seattle's face the third easiest, and just in general, if

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Speaker 1: you look at the schedule, Seattle's wins have not been

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Speaker 1: very impressive. It's the Giants, a bottom five team, the

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Speaker 1: Panthers a bottom five team, the Cardinals pre Kyler bottom

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Speaker 1: five team. They beat Washington last week, not a bottom

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Speaker 1: five team, but you know already had a fire sale,

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Speaker 1: not probably bottom ten team at least, and you had

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Speaker 1: to win on a field goal as time expired. You

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Speaker 1: beat the Browns with PJ Walker by taking the lead

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Speaker 1: in the final minutes U and then getting a lucky

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Speaker 1: tipball to end it, and then you beat Detroit in overtime,

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Speaker 1: so you're really your real only wins of any you know,

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Speaker 1: substance are against bottom five teams, and then every other

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Speaker 1: winner is like a coin flip where it could have

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Speaker 1: gone either way. So I'm not really impressed with the

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Speaker 1: Seattle team at all. And that goes back to last

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Speaker 1: year when you know, we saw the Seattle team kind

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Speaker 1: of played down to its competition, even though they ended

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Speaker 1: up getting a playoffs. And I think Gino Smith this

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Speaker 1: year hasn't been quite as good as last year. I

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Speaker 1: don't want to say he regrets. I just think he's

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Speaker 1: kind of who he is. He probably was playing a

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Speaker 1: little over his head last year, but he had struggled

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Speaker 1: against this Raheem Morrits defense the last two meetings. And

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Speaker 1: remember that's this year and we won. And then last

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Speaker 1: year at the end of the year when remember Aaron

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Speaker 1: Donald was out and like half the defense was out

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Speaker 1: as well. I remember at one point you I think

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Speaker 1: you had the in that one, and you were just

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Speaker 1: like their professionals, like that was your whole It was

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Speaker 1: just like their professionals. They'll figure it out. Because that's

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Speaker 1: all you really could say. And Gino Smith in those

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Speaker 1: last two meetings as completed, has barely completed sixty percent

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Speaker 1: of his passes, averaging just five point seven yards in

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Speaker 1: attempt on fifty seven attempts, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks are averaging just sixteen points per game in

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Speaker 1: those two matchups. So I think you know this. I

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Speaker 1: think Stafford Cup and Nikua coming off of BUYE McVeigh,

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Speaker 1: I think they'll they'll find a way to get it

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Speaker 1: done here on offense. And I even though the Rams

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Speaker 1: defense isn't great, I do think Geno Smith will have

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Speaker 1: a little bit of trouble on that side. And you know,

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Speaker 1: this is the matchup that you want to fade the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks and target the Rams. Sean McVay career versus the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks and Peak arrow ten and four against the spread,

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Speaker 1: covering by an average of five point three points per

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Speaker 1: game in the last six meetings, six and oh against

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Speaker 1: the spread. So give me the Los Angeles Rams plus one.

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Speaker 1: Don't mind it at a pick, don't even mind it

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Speaker 1: at a minus one. I think that's that's about as

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Speaker 1: far as I go. But love the matchup for LA.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I uh so, I had this when we were

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Speaker 2: doing our our draft and in slack I said, you're

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Speaker 2: up first this week and then I typed in it

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Speaker 2: was it was the Rams second in a row. I think, yep,

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Speaker 2: this would have been my first pick. Yeah. McVeigh. He

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Speaker 2: used to own mcavage's it's the circle of life in

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Speaker 2: n C West. His offenses have always they used to

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Speaker 2: always own the old Pete Carroll style defenses. Now they've

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Speaker 2: tweaked their scheme a little bit. Big Vey still rips

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Speaker 2: them apart. Nine and one against the against the Seahawks

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Speaker 2: in the past ten meetings, including the playoffs last year,

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Speaker 2: the Seahawks like had to win at the end of

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Speaker 2: the year. The Rams are playing with like, you know,

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Speaker 2: backup quarterbacks that John who I forget Wolford was, yep,

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Speaker 2: Baker maybe was another. And the Seaals won both those

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Speaker 2: games by three. Yeah, I think there's a great spot.

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Speaker 2: McVeagh also, good offe bye, good off good after a loss.

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Speaker 2: You also should get haven't seen back a right tackle

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Speaker 2: Ernest Jones back in the middle at linebacker, who's probably

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Speaker 2: their second best defender after Aaron Donald. Yeah, I think

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Speaker 2: this is a good matchup. I've said before, I think

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Speaker 2: that the Seahawks defense is overrated going into that Ravens game.

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Speaker 2: I mean, last week Sam how looked like an All Pro.

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Speaker 2: I think this defense has major holes and Stafford should

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Speaker 2: have a big day. Gino will probably make a mistake

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Speaker 2: or two. I like the Rams here too. So for

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Speaker 2: my first pick and the second of the week eleven

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Speaker 2: Sunday six Pack, I'm going with the Chicago Bears plus nine.

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Speaker 2: I believe this is the first time in six pack

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Speaker 2: history that I've taken the Bears. I don't know if

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Speaker 2: that's right, but I don't I can't remember, but I've

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Speaker 2: ever taken the Bears in the six pack. I'm riding

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Speaker 2: with your boy Justin Fields, who should return here. So

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Speaker 2: why do I like this? Bet? I kind of got

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Speaker 2: I had a rough morning, I had rams typed in

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Speaker 2: and then you responded with the rams I had. I

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Speaker 2: logged into one of my books to put in Bears

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Speaker 2: plus ten, and I said, let me just I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: check one other thing. And I came back two minutes

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Speaker 2: later and it was at nine and a half. So

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Speaker 2: I missed the ten there, but I still like it

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Speaker 2: at nine. I bet it at nine and nine and

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Speaker 2: a half. And why so why do I like the

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Speaker 2: Bears here? Well? One, I think this is just a

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Speaker 2: good Bilo cell high spot. As far as where these

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Speaker 2: teams sit in the market lines covering machines, we know

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Speaker 2: that coming off that crazy win. Credit to Dan Campbell

305
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Speaker 2: for all those fourth down decisions I think needed every

306
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Speaker 2: one of them because their defense wasn't gonna get stops.

307
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Speaker 2: But I think this is probably the peak of the

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Speaker 2: Lions market value once again, until they you know, maybe

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Speaker 2: they get flattened again or this is a close game.

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Speaker 2: But look, the Lions defense as holes. We'll start there.

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Speaker 2: The secondary is bad. You know, they they've placed some

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Speaker 2: absolute clown car quarterbacks and that have inflated their numbers,

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Speaker 2: but anytime they face the competent quarterback, especially one that

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Speaker 2: can move around, it's disastrous. So the linebackers aren't that fast,

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Speaker 2: and the way that they're playing mobile quarterbacks, they're so

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Speaker 2: worried about them running that they're like not attacking the quarterback,

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Speaker 2: they're not going after them, and then the quarterbacks end

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Speaker 2: up running anyway, and then there's just they can't cover downfield.

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Speaker 2: It's a disaster. I mean, he saw what happened with

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Speaker 2: the Chargers and the Ravens just absolutely ripping their secondary apart.

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Speaker 2: So I think Field to I think rush for I

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Speaker 2: think like one hundred and sixty one game against the

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Speaker 2: Lions last year, should have a big game with his legs,

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Speaker 2: and I think that he can have some success through

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Speaker 2: the air. One of the things that you know, I

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Speaker 2: don't know if this has been talked about. I was

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Speaker 2: reading it on some Bears message board. There was a

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Speaker 2: video that came out with Justin Fields and his and

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Speaker 2: is in practice and this week, and he was in

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Speaker 2: his seven step drop. He was getting back like one

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Speaker 2: to nine to two seconds. And he was one of

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Speaker 2: the slowest quarterbacks in NFL history when he would do

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Speaker 2: those long drops and it would end up causing a

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Speaker 2: lot of pressure, and he was just so slow to

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Speaker 2: get back. So someone pointed out and they were timing it,

336
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Speaker 2: and he must have. They must have worked on it,

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Speaker 2: and that must have been a point of emphasis because

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Speaker 2: all these dropbacks he was getting back at two seconds,

339
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Speaker 2: which I think is huge because it really hurt their

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Speaker 2: passing efficiency. But I think that the Bears overall are

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Speaker 2: just generally a bit undervalued right now. And this is

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Speaker 2: I just think too many points in a divisional game.

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Speaker 2: But the Bears haven't been good this year, but their

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Speaker 2: offensive line is now healthy, it's trending in the right direction.

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Speaker 2: They're you know, you might get Herbert back, but their

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Speaker 2: run game has been very good. Anyway. You know, you

347
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,600
Speaker 2: obviously have com mad you have an upgraded wide receiver room.

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Speaker 2: And then on the defensive side of the ball. This

349
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Speaker 2: defense historically bad last year, trending that way again earlier

350
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Speaker 2: this season. But they did go out and upgrade the

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Speaker 2: defense coming into the air. But they had a ton

352
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Speaker 2: of injuries, right, a ton of injuries in the secondary.

353
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,879
Speaker 2: Secondary is now healthy. Couldn't really get pressure, you know,

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Speaker 2: before last week against the Panthers, a league low twenty

355
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 2: two percent pressure rate. But what did they what did

356
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 2: they do? They went out and they got sweat and

357
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 2: sweat I think at five pressures the most of any

358
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Speaker 2: Bear of this year. They know it was bright down,

359
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 2: but they had like a thirty five percent pressure rate

360
00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 2: and it takes attention off of the other defensive linemen.

361
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,199
Speaker 2: Their run defense, because of the upgrades at linebacker, the

362
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 2: signings in the interior, the run defense actually been really good.

363
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 2: So I think that they can hold up here against Detroit.

364
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:03,919
Speaker 2: So I think this defense is actually trending in the

365
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 2: right direction. Getting an edge piece like Sweat could just

366
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,440
Speaker 2: do so much for the rest of the defensive line. Yeah,

367
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Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna be in Gov's face all day.

368
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 2: The Lions have a great offensive line. But it's not

369
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Speaker 2: gonna be like last week for the Lions, where they

370
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 2: can just push this Bears D line around and just

371
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:23,920
Speaker 2: run at will like you can do against the Chargers.

372
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Speaker 2: And now with the healthier secondary for the Bears, you know,

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Speaker 2: Fields healthy, this little improvement and his drop back against

374
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Speaker 2: a bad lines d. I think this is a good

375
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,200
Speaker 2: time to buy in on the Bears, who are coming

376
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:39,720
Speaker 2: in off of a bit of an extended buy here,

377
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 2: or you should say, a short buy after playing on Thursday.

378
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, give me the Chicago Bears plus nine at Detroit.

379
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,679
Speaker 1: Damn bro. This is how I know you. I know

380
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 1: you're feeling under the weather. You just called Justin Fields

381
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Speaker 1: a competent quarterback right off the bat.

382
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,480
Speaker 2: Yeah. But by the way, like this number, it's just

383
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 2: home field avanaged the NFL. It's going down and out

384
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 2: of that it's even lower. I mean, it's all. It's

385
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 2: so low for a divisional game because you have familiarity indoors,

386
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 2: like homefield is so low for this specific circumstance. Two

387
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 2: weeks ago, the Lions closed as six and a half

388
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:23,480
Speaker 2: point favorites at home in primetime against the Raiders, and

389
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:24,120
Speaker 2: Jimmy g.

390
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 1: Yep, I'm definitely back in the lines.

391
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:31,239
Speaker 2: And now one and that closed under a touchdown, and

392
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 2: that was in non home field, means a little bit

393
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:37,360
Speaker 2: more their primetime non conference matchup. The Raiders defense. Right now,

394
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,439
Speaker 2: if you compare both of these defenses, they're both not

395
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 2: good defense. But I would take the Bears slightly over

396
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 2: the Raiders. I would probably take the Bears offense. It's

397
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 2: close to a wash, basically. I mean, I'm splitting hairs.

398
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,719
Speaker 2: These are teams that I have the Bears rated like

399
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 2: a hair better than the Raiders. But I'm getting nine

400
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 2: here in the divisional matchup, a couple extra days of prep,

401
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 2: whereas the market was the Raiders six and a half

402
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 2: of that game. So I think this is too I

403
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 2: think this should be like seven to seven and a half.

404
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 1: You saund like me before the season, this is hilarious,

405
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 1: you know, given you're trying, you.

406
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 2: Know, I'm gonna go buy.

407
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:20,440
Speaker 1: Irrationalized irrational love for the Bears defense all called fields confident,

408
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,919
Speaker 1: I mean, what's next, man? But truthfully, I didn't have

409
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 1: a great feel for I know, I know a lot

410
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 1: of people are on the uh. I know sharp money

411
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: is on the Bears. I didn't have a great feel

412
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 1: for it until you broke it down just now. I

413
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 1: was actually kind of looking more for this to be

414
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 1: a shootout, you know. Yeah, I am worried about that

415
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 1: Bears pass defense because their run defense has been pretty solid.

416
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 1: It's been about week average, but the past defense is

417
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 1: still bad, so I was I'm kind of thinking that

418
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 1: this makes the Lions go a little past heavy. And

419
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 1: the one thing about the Lions that I guess is

420
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 1: a concern for your bet is just this is pretty

421
00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 1: much now. I guess their second game, having all of

422
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:06,920
Speaker 1: their offensive pieces, you know, Gibbs Montgomery, the Lions could

423
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 1: put up a big number of the Bears will have

424
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 1: to match it. But the Bears have been, you know,

425
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 1: putting up points. I could see some points being scored here,

426
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 1: but it is a divisional matchup, so don't hate it.

427
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 1: Taking the Yeah, I wouldn't mind.

428
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 2: The lines are smart, which they are, then they probably

429
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 2: will go pass every year and they might you know,

430
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 2: continue the aggression on fourth down.

431
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 1: I don't hate it all right. For my second pick

432
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 1: and the third overall of the week eleven Sunday six pack,

433
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 1: I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings plus two and a

434
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 1: half at the Denver Broncos, and surprise, I'm back on

435
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:51,399
Speaker 1: the Vikings again. I would have thought for sure I

436
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 1: be selling high now, but you know, the Broncos are

437
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 1: also kind of riding high right now. And I continue

438
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 1: to see value in the Vikings relatives to the market,

439
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 1: because what are you looking for a lot of times

440
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 1: when you're making these best, especially at this point in

441
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 1: the season, you're looking for things that maybe aren't fully

442
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 1: accounted for by the market. And I think with this

443
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 1: Minnesota Viking team, as much as guys keep getting hurt,

444
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 1: I still think that they're being undervalued, and specifically in

445
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: this matchup for a couple of reasons. The first is

446
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 1: on the defensive side of the ball. The first edge

447
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 1: is they're the most blitz happy team in the NFL.

448
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 1: We know that under Ryan Flores, who's done an amazing

449
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 1: job taking talent that looked like the worst defense in

450
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 1: the week frankly last year and transforming it into a

451
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 1: top ten defense. But Russell Wilson one hundred and thirteen

452
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 1: passer rating when not blitzed, seventy nine passer rating when

453
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 1: blitzed this year, his thirty four percent drop off in

454
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 1: passer rating excuse me, thirty four point drop off and

455
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 1: passer rating is the largest among thirty nine qualified quarterbacks

456
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 1: against the blitz. He also has the highest pressure to

457
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 1: sack rate when blitzed among those thirty nine quarterbacks as well,

458
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 1: and then the number two edge on defense.

459
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 2: This week, it's butts down. He just bucks down and takes.

460
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 1: The Yeah, yeah, yeah. I feel like I feel like

461
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 1: CC told him just get down, just set yourself, bro,

462
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 1: Like I don't think she wants him take it too

463
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 1: many hits or something, because yeah, it's it's really weird.

464
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 1: It feels like his whole demeanor just kind of change

465
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 1: in regards to pressure over the last you know, since

466
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: joining Denver. But with that being a said, and I'm

467
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 1: not here to knock Russ, he's been playing, you know,

468
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 1: decently enough for them to get back to five hundred.

469
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,360
Speaker 1: He's great touchdown interception ratio, So not not ragging on him,

470
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,880
Speaker 1: but he does struggle against the blitz and hasn't really

471
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 1: played that many defense. I mean, there is no defense

472
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: that blitz is at this rate. But it's not like

473
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 1: he's played the Giants or any of those other super

474
00:26:54,440 --> 00:27:00,400
Speaker 1: boitz happy teams either. But secondly, this Viking defense can

475
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 1: stop this Denver running back centric offense. And that's been

476
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,400
Speaker 1: another key for us to survive out here has been

477
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 1: kind of going through the running that three headed monster,

478
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 1: and really Javonte Williams now is kind of taking control.

479
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 1: But you know they're throwing to the backs, they're hand

480
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 1: into the backs. But Minnesota is seventh on defense in

481
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 1: EPA per rush alloud and on Denver's win streak this

482
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 1: you know this just stretch where they beat Kansas City

483
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 1: and Buffalo and Green Bay. Buffalo nineteenth in e PA

484
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 1: against the run, Kansas City thirty first and Green Bay

485
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:42,919
Speaker 1: twenty fifth. So Denver really has it faced a defense

486
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,119
Speaker 1: with this type of scheme. So a lot of people

487
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 1: may look at Minnesota and say, oh, this is you know,

488
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,120
Speaker 1: Buffalo is always good and Kansas City hasn't a week

489
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 1: defense this year, and you know Green Bay's I mean,

490
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 1: they're okay. But people might look at Minnesota as the

491
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,160
Speaker 1: weakest defense they fest faced in the stretch, where whereas

492
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: I actually think it's best defense and the one that's

493
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 1: gonna give us the most trouble. Minnesota also is top

494
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,120
Speaker 1: ten in DVOA on running back passes and they're giving

495
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: up the fifth fewest schedule justed receiving yards to running backs,

496
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 1: which is big because Javonte Williams is being targeted on

497
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:20,439
Speaker 1: over thirty percent of his routes. And then you know,

498
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 1: more value in the market for Minnesota. It's been I

499
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:27,239
Speaker 1: don't know if I've ever seen something like this, but

500
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:31,880
Speaker 1: it seems like every time Minnesota get somebody hurt, they

501
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 1: can replace them with out really suffering a major drop off.

502
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 1: You go from Kirk Cousins, who is top eight in

503
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 1: EPA per play, you know, in the first eight weeks,

504
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: Josh Dabbs last two weeks with the vikings seventh and

505
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 1: EPA per play seventh and adjusted EPA per play justin

506
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 1: Jefferson second in receiving yards for the game he goes down,

507
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 1: Jordan Addison becomes a wide receiver one, He's second in touchdowns,

508
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 1: and TJ. Hockinson is third in catches and eighth and

509
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 1: first down catches, so you know you're and then we

510
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: have Jordan Hicks. Now he the linebacker. He was playing

511
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 1: great top twenty linebacker at PFF graded out with a

512
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 1: seventy six point seven Ivan pace Junior stepped in his

513
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 1: grade seventy four in the top twenty five as well,

514
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 1: actually playing better in some facets than Hicks through these

515
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 1: first ten weeks. So that week that Jarisol went down,

516
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 1: who was at Quasinberry Who's like a top two tackle

517
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: that week? So it's been it's been crazy, but Minnesota

518
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 1: is just not suffering those usual like replacement level drop offs.

519
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 1: Same thing with Alexander Madison. I actually think ty Chandler

520
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 1: is probably an upgrade at this point over Alexander Madison,

521
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,479
Speaker 1: who looks like we to miss with a concussion. But

522
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 1: on the offense, Erson have a shot that come back.

523
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: He does, but don't I actually don't think he is

524
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 1: coming back. kJ Osborne should be back. Jaywen Naylor came

525
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 1: back last week and he had under the radar rookie

526
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: year and played on ninety five percent of the pass

527
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 1: snaps last week's first came back, So like, yeah, they

528
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 1: just keep they just keep finding ways to improve even

529
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 1: though they're down, Like all these guys at femium positions.

530
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 1: It's it's pretty nuts. But offensively, Minnesota has an edge

531
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 1: too that I don't really think the market is accounting for,

532
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 1: and that is that no team in the league play

533
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: actions nearly as much as the Minnesota Vikings. They have

534
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 1: one hundred and ten play action passes this year. The

535
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 1: next closest team is eighty two. And so this is

536
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: like on defense, they blitzed more than anyone. On offense,

537
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 1: they play action more than anyone. Well, the defense who

538
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 1: ranks last and passive rating against the play action the

539
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos. The defense who ranks last a completion percentage

540
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 1: against play action, the Denver Broncos. Everyone's saying the Denver

541
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 1: Broncos turned around their defense, right, you know, starting in

542
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 1: Week six, you know, last last half of the season,

543
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 1: they turned it around. Quarterback numbers with play action since

544
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 1: their supposed turnaround Week six, Patrick Mahomes only play action

545
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 1: on thirteen percent of his dropbacks five of six one

546
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: hundred yards seventeen yards in attempt, one hundred and nineteen

547
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 1: passer rating. Week seven, Jordan Love play action on thirty

548
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 1: percent of his dropbacks nine of nine for ninety yards,

549
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 1: two touchdowns, no picks, ten yards in attempt, one hundred

550
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 1: and forty eight passer rating. Wee kate back to Mahomes

551
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 1: only pay actioned on eighteen percent of his dropbacks five

552
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: and seven for seventy four yards just under eleven yards

553
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 1: per attempt, passer rating of one oh six when he

554
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 1: didn't play action, five point four yards an attempt at

555
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 1: a passer rating of forty nine. And then Josh Allen

556
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: on Monday Night play action on twenty two percent of

557
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 1: his dropbacks eight point six yards in attempt, a passer

558
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 1: rating of one oh two point five when he did

559
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 1: it six point four, and a passer rating of forty nine.

560
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 1: So Minnesota has, on both sides of the ball, the

561
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 1: perfect scheme to end this Denver Bronco win streak and

562
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 1: continue their own. So even though I thought for sure

563
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 1: i'd be fading the Vikings when you know they just

564
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: keep on winning games, beating teams covering spreads, I think

565
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: they have some key matchup advantages here that are not

566
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 1: being taken into account by the market. And you also

567
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 1: got road dogs historically under a touchdown going up against

568
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 1: the home favorite on short rest like the Broncos ninety

569
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 1: one sixty four and three fifty nine percent against the

570
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 1: spread since two thousand and eight. So I haven't put

571
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 1: it in the app yet. I'm waiting to see if

572
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: we get a three. I know some money's been coming

573
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: in on the Broncos, and it is a Sunday night game,

574
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 1: so there is we got some time to wait. But

575
00:32:58,160 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 1: like it at two and a half, like it at two,

576
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 1: give me the Vikings.

577
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I will push back in the Broncos

578
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 2: have turned around their defense. I mean, you put mcmillion

579
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 2: in that slot, you benched matthis for Moro, got Browning back,

580
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 2: ont Jones back, but it's still not a great defense.

581
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 2: It's just not Yeah.

582
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 1: Oh no, I'm not always trying to knock it, but

583
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, like there's one facet which happens to

584
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 1: be with the Vikings specialize in that they haven't turned

585
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: it around.

586
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 2: Yeah. And one of the reasons I loved the Broncos

587
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 2: on Monday Night was that Russ has been so good

588
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 2: against zone and then when he's not blitzed. I was

589
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 2: concerned that the Bills were gonna incessantly blitz and they

590
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 2: ended up doing it like at the worst time. But

591
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 2: you know you can count on the Vikings the blitz. Yeah.

592
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 2: I don't hate it all more in this game later.

593
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 2: But for my second pick and the fourth overall the

594
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 2: week eleven Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Houston

595
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 2: Texans minus five against the Arizona Cardinals. I mean, CJ.

596
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 2: Shroud is the truth. He's already a top ten quarterback

597
00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 2: in my eyes. I think in year or two be

598
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 2: a top five quarterback. I mean maybe by the end

599
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 2: of the year he's that good. I've seen what I've

600
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 2: needed to see. And there's a lot of times when

601
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,400
Speaker 2: you get a rookie quarterback, is this good rarely happens.

602
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:14,760
Speaker 2: He arguably the best. If he continues on this trailer,

603
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:16,399
Speaker 2: they love the best rookie quarterback season in the history

604
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 2: of the NFL. There's you know the way that odds

605
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 2: makers pure number modelers, which I just never think that

606
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 2: you should can use the cap NFL doing just you know,

607
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 2: pure numbers. I think the best approach is combining you know, matchups,

608
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:39,919
Speaker 2: your numbers, and then you know, some subjective input as well.

609
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 2: But a lot of those old models, the guys who

610
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 2: just run on models, they are slowly adjust with a

611
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 2: rookie quarterback because historical rookie quarterbacks are going to struggle,

612
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,279
Speaker 2: and you don't want to price a rookie quarterback as

613
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,280
Speaker 2: if he's already like a top five to ten quarterback.

614
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 2: I think that's the case. So I think that I'm

615
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 2: I'm going back to the Texans and you there are

616
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 2: there are some big, big groups out there that do

617
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 2: have more subjective and we saw it last week. The

618
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,880
Speaker 2: Texans just got hammered down to what four and a

619
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 2: half five on game day against the Bengals and then

620
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 2: one out right, So I think Straud's that good. And

621
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 2: if you look at these teams, so I just think

622
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:20,279
Speaker 2: the Texans are generally undervaled and probably will be for

623
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:26,240
Speaker 2: a bit. Stroud is playing out of his mind. There's

624
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 2: the offensive line is now healthy. And if you look

625
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 2: at these two teams, yeah, the Cardinals. The only thing

626
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 2: I'm wright about is like a little bit of a

627
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:32,919
Speaker 2: letdown for a younger team, but you're gonna get home.

628
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 2: And I just don't know how the Cardinals can stop them.

629
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 2: This is one of the worst secondaries in the league.

630
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 2: They had no corners we can match up and they

631
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,839
Speaker 2: can't get the pressure. One of the lowest pressure rates,

632
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 2: lowest witz rates in the NFL. And if you, I

633
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 2: just if you look at these two rosters, I mean,

634
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 2: let's look at the important position groups. Offensive line, Texans

635
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 2: of the advantage by a mile. Secondary Texans by a mile.

636
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 2: And now that their safeties a you remember earlier in

637
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 2: the year they were playing with that whole bunch of

638
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 2: backup offensive linemen without their safety. There's two starting safeties

639
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 2: and I really love uh. I mean Jimmy Ward's reliable

640
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 2: safety and I love Petrie at the other safety spot.

641
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 2: They were both hurt earlier this season, and their corners,

642
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:11,360
Speaker 2: and this whole defense is really rounding into the form

643
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 2: other important positions. Wide receivers mean the Texans uh. And

644
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 2: then edge rush but well, called a wash. That's probably

645
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 2: the one he got Boodha Baker, but that's probably the

646
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 2: one strength of the Cardinals. D I like go Jalai.

647
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 2: He's playing well. Guard Deck is playing well too, but

648
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 2: you know you will Anderson and Gernard are also playing well.

649
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 2: We'll call that a wash. Like this, the Texas are

650
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:37,760
Speaker 2: significantly better than the Cardinals. And quarterback I'm taking Shroud

651
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:42,840
Speaker 2: over uh Kyler, And you know, Kyler looked good and

652
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 2: he looked healthy last week, but he also just doesn't

653
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 2: have the same tools and offensive line around him. And

654
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 2: Stroud is just that good right now. So uh, this

655
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 2: this Cardinals team, you know, they got a cute win

656
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:57,319
Speaker 2: over the Falcons. And by the way, that Falcons D

657
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,359
Speaker 2: is not good. And now without Grady Jarrett was getting

658
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:02,360
Speaker 2: double team more than any player in the NFL, opening

659
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:04,799
Speaker 2: up everything else. They were without your model as well.

660
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 2: Falcons D is bad. This Texans D is better than

661
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 2: But look, we saw the Cardinals are gonna have you know,

662
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:13,399
Speaker 2: two or three wins this year. We saw them beat

663
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 2: the Cowboys and then they just got flattened every single

664
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,240
Speaker 2: week since then. That was what Josh Dobbs two is playing. Well,

665
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,879
Speaker 2: this is a bad team. This is the worst team

666
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 2: in the NFL for my numbers, besides for Tommy DeVito

667
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 2: lead Giants. So I think it's a cheap number for

668
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:30,439
Speaker 2: the Texans and the Shroud who's just Undervale in the market.

669
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 2: It's that simple for me, gim me Houston.

670
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 1: Yeah. I was kind of going back and forth on this.

671
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:36,839
Speaker 1: I might end up joining you, you know, one of

672
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 1: like the pure number models I had, you know, put

673
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 1: this number closer to the seven and favor of the Texans.

674
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 1: But there's just so much uncertainty for me really on

675
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:48,320
Speaker 1: both sides.

676
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,359
Speaker 2: I'm like six and a half seven, six to seven.

677
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 1: I think I can't knock get but for me, it's

678
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 1: just there's a little bit like there's a lot of

679
00:37:55,840 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 1: lot more uncertainty in that projection than you know, than

680
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 1: most that I project because on one side, I still

681
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:09,399
Speaker 1: don't know exactly what to make of this Texan team's consistency,

682
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:13,240
Speaker 1: and that goes on both sides of the ball really,

683
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 1: and you kind of mentioned the wet down spot, which

684
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 1: which adds to it. But remember I've been on the

685
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:19,759
Speaker 1: Texans since early in the season too. I had them

686
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:21,359
Speaker 1: against the Jags and I went right back to him

687
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh when not many people are on that island

688
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 1: with me, and they end up winning thirty to six,

689
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 1: and then I go back to them with third week

690
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:29,359
Speaker 1: in a row when I'm based an underdog, like it's

691
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,800
Speaker 1: all it's all you know, it's all value. So it's

692
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: I'm not as worried. But and like on the Arizona side,

693
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 1: I'm still not sure exactly. I know the defense is bad, obviously,

694
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 1: I just don't know exactly how to power rate this

695
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 1: offense or I'm not is I think there's some you know,

696
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 1: there's more error in that in my rating than it

697
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 1: would be there would be in a normal one, just

698
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 1: because we only had one game for Kiro in the

699
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 1: new system. It came against a bad Falcons defense, but

700
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 1: that was also a Falcons defense that the Texas always

701
00:38:57,160 --> 00:39:00,879
Speaker 1: scored nineteen against. And then this offense was a top

702
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 1: ten offense for the first month of the season with

703
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 1: Josh Dabbs. Is that just because Josh Dobbs is a

704
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 1: lot better than we realized too, So there's just a

705
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 1: lot of moving parts.

706
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 2: I would don't mind the over here, but I think

707
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a higher scoroing game, which makes me

708
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 2: less esse than it the back of the favorite.

709
00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 1: No, it makes sense. It makes sense, all right, So

710
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 1: wrap it up. We got a fun one here because

711
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 1: we don't often do this, but we're gonna go head

712
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 1: to head on a pick so, which we can do

713
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 1: for the contest as long as we're on opposite side.

714
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 1: So the one thing we can't do is pick the

715
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:35,799
Speaker 1: same side. So we're on the opposite side of a

716
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 1: hilarious game. For my third pick in the fifth overall

717
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 1: of the week eleven Hoday six pack, I'm going with

718
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers plus one at the cleaven Browns. I

719
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 1: already know why you're on the opposite side. And I

720
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:54,239
Speaker 1: can't say I disagree with the reasoning. I mean, the

721
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 1: Steers have been by far by fall, the luckiest team

722
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:00,160
Speaker 1: in the national foot.

723
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 2: A week twins YEA by one possession, all on comeback

724
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:09,759
Speaker 2: fashion outgained the never game only team in NFL street

725
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 2: in every game through nine weeks with a winning record,

726
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 2: and their six and three.

727
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:17,719
Speaker 1: Frauds complete complete frauds. But yet, and this is and

728
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 1: this is where I this is why I like the

729
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 1: Steelers even even though they've been frauds. They just got

730
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 1: lucky again. They just got lucky again, like before the

731
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:32,840
Speaker 1: week before they stepped on the field, They've gotten lucky

732
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 1: again twice twice in my opinion. Because Number one Deshaun

733
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 1: Watson is announced out for the year. Okay, fine, you've

734
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:48,320
Speaker 1: already he's already been in it out. But then it's

735
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 1: announced that they're gonna start Drian Thompson Robinson, and I

736
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 1: like him. I liked him in the preseason, but it

737
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 1: was it was rough for him, uh in his first start,

738
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 1: and I just I just don't think that going up

739
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:07,280
Speaker 1: against a stealer of Mike Tomlins Steeler d with Watt healthy,

740
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 1: with Hayward healthy on that front, with your tap both

741
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:17,280
Speaker 1: of your tackles out. You know, conference on IR Wills

742
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:23,799
Speaker 1: is on Ir Dwan Jones didn't practice, Wyatt Teller didn't practice.

743
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 1: So with a bang up line going against t J.

744
00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 1: Watt and Hayward and company and his steer defense and

745
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 1: looking as bad as he looked in his first start

746
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 1: in the only sample we have of him in live

747
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 1: NFL action, I know it was against a great Ravens D,

748
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,280
Speaker 1: but the Steers D is not far us. The steers

749
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:44,879
Speaker 1: the is a top ten defense in its own right,

750
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 1: top ten and pressu rate top ten, sacrate, top ten,

751
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:51,399
Speaker 1: Indjustice Sacerate. I just don't think it's a good look

752
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 1: for him, And there is a big drop off between,

753
00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 1: you know, the levels of these quarterbacks. So because obviously

754
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 1: Canny Pickett is bad in his own right and Deshaun

755
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 1: Watson wasn't wasn't great. So forty five quarterbacks have had

756
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 1: at least as many plays as DTR this year. He

757
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:17,320
Speaker 1: ranks forty fifth of forty five in EPA per play

758
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 1: at negative point four nine. That means every time he

759
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 1: takes a snap, he's essentially losing the Browns at half

760
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:31,919
Speaker 1: a point. That's not good. Now, for comparison's sake, he's

761
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 1: forty fifth, right, Deshaun Watson was twenty ninth, so he

762
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:39,800
Speaker 1: wasn't great. Can you Pickett thirty fourth? PJ Walker fortieth,

763
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 1: So you're going from like Watson kind of came alive

764
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:49,400
Speaker 1: against the Ravens, fine Picket, not good, Walker even worse,

765
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 1: dtr bottom of the barrel. Now Cleveland's and Cleveland's defense

766
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 1: is a weit. So that's what they have going for them.

767
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 1: But I just can't get I can't not take the

768
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 1: opportunity to fade what who has been the worst quarterback

769
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 1: in the league this year, third stringer worse EPA than

770
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 1: de Veto Way in points. So give me the Pittsburgh Steelers.

771
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 1: And as we record this, Pittsburgh still plus one at BETTERMGM.

772
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:33,239
Speaker 1: There's still dog at a lot of spots. And you know,

773
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 1: that's another one of these things we talked about these

774
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 1: AFC North This AFC Norse Football Mike tom wins sixty

775
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 1: five percent against the spread as a dog fifty five

776
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 1: and twenty nine, twenty nine and fifteen sixty nine percent

777
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 1: as a dog coming off a win, fifteen and four

778
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 1: seventy nine percent as a dog without Ben Roethlisberger thirty

779
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 1: eight and fourteen seventy three percent as a dog against

780
00:43:57,520 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 1: an opponent with an equal or better straight up win

781
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:04,800
Speaker 1: loss records. So they got the underdog trends iner side,

782
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 1: you got a terrible quarterback winning points. I respect the defense,

783
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 1: but give me steeers.

784
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I completely disagree here. I was so happy

785
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:20,879
Speaker 2: when Watson. I wasn't happy that Watson was got hurt,

786
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 2: but from a betting perspective, when it came out Watson

787
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:26,359
Speaker 2: is going to be out for the year, I said,

788
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 2: Oh my god, I'm gonna get the Browns under three now,

789
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 2: and that's all I wanted because I was not going

790
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 2: to lay over three in an AFC North game between

791
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 2: these two defenses with a total of I will probably

792
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 2: close like thirty six.

793
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:40,360
Speaker 1: I started down like thirty three and a half.

794
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:45,400
Speaker 2: To like thirty three thirty two, I'd be so I

795
00:44:45,480 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 2: was very happy. And then, believe it or not, I

796
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 2: was happy when they announced that TTR would start. So

797
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:57,640
Speaker 2: you mentioned GTR's numbers. The I mean I basically book, Yeah,

798
00:44:57,680 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 2: he's the worst. Me play threw a bunch of picks

799
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 2: and uh, in one game, we'll start one game. That's

800
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:07,640
Speaker 2: what's gonna happen. We already know, and we already know

801
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 2: how bad PJ. Walker is. Like, out of forty nine

802
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 2: quarterbacks with at least thirty plays this year, here are

803
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 2: the bottom three and EPA plus completion percentage over expectation.

804
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 2: Forty seventh is de Veto negative point oh two five.

805
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 2: Forty eight is Walker negative point oh four to two.

806
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 2: Forty nine is Ripping negative point oh seven to three.

807
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 2: DTR is forty third. But I don't care. I mean,

808
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:34,240
Speaker 2: there's one starting. Three bunch picks pick at this fortieth

809
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 2: behind mac Jones, one spot ahead of the one of

810
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 2: going only Zach Wilson DTR found out he was starting

811
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 2: the day of the game. And he's a rookie. He

812
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:49,479
Speaker 2: didn't know he was starting until the morning of the game.

813
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 1: I actually heard that was false. I actually heard he

814
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 1: misspoke on that. I already knew he was starting. He

815
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:58,279
Speaker 1: just didn't know like he that was. That was a

816
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 1: whole ado about nothing like he He took rep he

817
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 1: took first team reps in practice, like he knew he

818
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 1: was gonna start. He knew he was regardless that your

819
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 1: point is taking you for us.

820
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:11,720
Speaker 2: He got he got his beak wet and the Ratons

821
00:46:11,760 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 2: defense is better than the Steelers defense. And I mean, look,

822
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 2: look the Steelers defense, their their secondary is attackable. I mean,

823
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 2: if Jordan Love came to life. Last week, Packer moved

824
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:24,920
Speaker 2: up and down the field like I could go. I

825
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 2: could go on and on about the regression that's coming

826
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:28,120
Speaker 2: for the Steelers. They've been so lucky and every I

827
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 2: mean every game just drops and last week they don't

828
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:33,720
Speaker 2: get they you don't get a clear defensive touchdowns called.

829
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 2: But I don't care. The only thing the Browns need

830
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 2: to do in this game, so I think dr actually

831
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 2: and I liked Tjr. Com out of college. I think

832
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:44,960
Speaker 2: he has a little bit more upside than Walker in

833
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 2: this game. Yeah, can use his legs and but I

834
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 2: don't don't. I personally would not use the quarterback in

835
00:46:52,160 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 2: this game. Was the Browns, I would. The best get

836
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:59,319
Speaker 2: in this game by far is the Browns defense hen

837
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 2: Georza Kenny Pickett is. Matt Ryan has more touchdown passes

838
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:09,319
Speaker 2: than Kenny Pickett for the past two seasons. And the

839
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:14,200
Speaker 2: I would I would just use a punter. I would

840
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 2: come out and I wouldn't even run it on first, second,

841
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:20,280
Speaker 2: and third down and then you would get Steelers voodoo

842
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:24,040
Speaker 2: and like a fumble, you want to maximize the amount

843
00:47:24,080 --> 00:47:27,280
Speaker 2: of time that Kenny Pickett has the ball against his defense.

844
00:47:28,520 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 2: I would punt it on first down every single possession.

845
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:34,879
Speaker 2: And if they do that and they don't turn it over,

846
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:39,520
Speaker 2: don't even look. All the regression could come at once

847
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 2: for the Steelers. That's coming. And this is one of

848
00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:44,880
Speaker 2: the worst offenses in the NFL, one of the worst quarterbacks,

849
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:49,719
Speaker 2: one of the worst schemed offenses, and they've just been

850
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 2: winning with voodoo. This is this They've played like a

851
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 2: two and seventeen and they're six and three. But I

852
00:47:57,040 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 2: just all I need is no flue turnovers. If there

853
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:01,919
Speaker 2: was ever a team that was due to not get any.

854
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 2: So I think the Browns are gonna come out here

855
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:08,800
Speaker 2: for the reason this total is dropping, and they're gonna say, Okay,

856
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:12,359
Speaker 2: we saw what happened in the first start. I think

857
00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 2: what's gonna happen is they're just gonna run. They're just

858
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 2: gonna run it, and they're gonna run in the walls.

859
00:48:16,920 --> 00:48:19,480
Speaker 2: Steelers run defense is better with Hayward back, so they're

860
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 2: not gonna have much success doing it. And then every

861
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:23,239
Speaker 2: once in a while, they're gonna take a deep, deep

862
00:48:23,239 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 2: shot down you know, the sidelines and where if you

863
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:28,279
Speaker 2: turn it over, it's not a big deal. I doubt

864
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 2: you're gonna see them throw in the middle of the

865
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 2: field much. You'll probably have some designed runs for dtr.

866
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 2: The entire game plan for the Browns has to be

867
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:40,919
Speaker 2: don't turn it over, don't turn it over, don't turn

868
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:46,799
Speaker 2: it over. Rely on that defense and the So you

869
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 2: have these two offenses that won't be able to do anything.

870
00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:55,440
Speaker 2: I trust the Browns defense more at home to make

871
00:48:55,520 --> 00:49:02,399
Speaker 2: more plays essentially, And yes, I'm riding with the Browns day,

872
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 2: hoping that the Steelers regression comes. But even if it doesn't,

873
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:10,360
Speaker 2: the Browns still win this game. So yeah, give me

874
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 2: a Cleveland minus one. Let's go head to head on

875
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:15,160
Speaker 2: another Browns game. Barely happens.

876
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:17,919
Speaker 1: Oh, it's always the Browns somehow, always the Brown bro

877
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 1: always the Dan Brown's all right, that's gonna do it.

878
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:22,720
Speaker 1: For the week eleven Sunday six pack. Just to recap,

879
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:26,880
Speaker 1: Stuck has the Bears plus nine, the Texans minus five,

880
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 1: and the Browns minus one. I have the Rams plus one,

881
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 1: Vikings plus two and a half, and the Steelers plus one.

882
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 1: Now it's time for the Week e eleven Coaches pep Talk.

883
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:45,439
Speaker 2: This is by far the worst team that has ever

884
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:46,880
Speaker 2: sat in this locker room.

885
00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 1: There's not one of you, not one of you win.

886
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 1: This week's coaches pep Talk comes to us from the

887
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 1: twenty eleven film Margin Call, and we're dedicating it to

888
00:49:58,239 --> 00:50:02,120
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills.

889
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:05,240
Speaker 2: Thank you all for coming in a little early this morning.

890
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 3: I know yesterday was pretty bad, and I wish I

891
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 3: could say that today is going to be less so,

892
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 3: but that isn't going to be the case.

893
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:12,280
Speaker 2: The party's over as of this morning.

894
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 3: Obviously, this is not going down the way that any

895
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:17,400
Speaker 3: of us would have hoped, but the ground is shifting

896
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:21,239
Speaker 3: below our feet and apparently there's no other way out.

897
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:25,160
Speaker 3: Have faith that in the bigger picture, our skills have

898
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:29,319
Speaker 3: not been wasted. We have accomplished much, and our talents

899
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 3: have been used for the greater good.

900
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 2: Get to work.

901
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:38,120
Speaker 1: It's the best of luck to the Bills in Week eleven.

902
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:45,160
Speaker 1: All right, time for our favorite total of the week.

903
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:51,280
Speaker 1: Got a rebound from last week both with on our totals.

904
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:54,160
Speaker 1: Where are you going my Faber total?

905
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with the Raiders Dolphins under forty

906
00:50:58,200 --> 00:51:01,240
Speaker 2: six and a half. You got the machine Dolphins taking

907
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:04,120
Speaker 2: on the under. Raiders are just an underbetter's best friend.

908
00:51:04,840 --> 00:51:06,640
Speaker 2: They play on offense, they play like they want to

909
00:51:06,760 --> 00:51:09,160
Speaker 2: hit the under and on defense all they want to

910
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:11,680
Speaker 2: do is take away the explosive play and that's it

911
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:15,799
Speaker 2: and they just want to shorten games. So what's gonna

912
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:17,120
Speaker 2: win out here? Well, I think that the way that

913
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:20,439
Speaker 2: the Raiders play, they can have some success and slow

914
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:22,080
Speaker 2: down the Dolphins. And what I think the counter is

915
00:51:22,080 --> 00:51:23,719
Speaker 2: gonna be the Dolphins are going to go just run

916
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:25,839
Speaker 2: heavier than usual here and the off success doing that,

917
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:28,360
Speaker 2: but it'll just take a little bit longer. And I

918
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:32,560
Speaker 2: think the most underrated unit in this game for this

919
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:36,440
Speaker 2: total is the Dolphins defense. I think the Dolphins defense

920
00:51:36,480 --> 00:51:41,560
Speaker 2: all foot by right, new scheme, complex scheme under Fangio,

921
00:51:42,120 --> 00:51:45,799
Speaker 2: takes some time and they've gotten guys back. I think

922
00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:48,799
Speaker 2: this defense is only going to continue to trend up.

923
00:51:49,560 --> 00:51:51,960
Speaker 2: That's what's going to make the Dolphins a serious player

924
00:51:52,080 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 2: in the playoffs. So this has like thirty one to

925
00:51:56,280 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 2: ten written all over it. Reason Dolphins are taking money here,

926
00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:03,400
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think that the Raiders will make the

927
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:06,240
Speaker 2: Dolphins work for it. I don't see the Raiders offense

928
00:52:06,280 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 2: doing much. Give me the under forty six and a half.

929
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:14,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Raiders have been very good at limiting those

930
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,759
Speaker 1: explosive plays, so that kind of plays.

931
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 2: Good in the red zone too, So yeah, under forty

932
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:24,360
Speaker 2: six and a half there for mine.

933
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:28,880
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Jet Bills first half under nineteen

934
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:31,759
Speaker 1: and a half at BETAMGM it's twenty most places, doesn't

935
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:34,319
Speaker 1: matter for the contest, so we go at nineteen and

936
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:37,200
Speaker 1: a half. But obviously the Bills are a little bit

937
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 1: out of sorts offensively and defensively they're banged up. So

938
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:44,760
Speaker 1: the reason I like the first half is I think

939
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:47,560
Speaker 1: what you're gonna see with McDermott, you know, making the

940
00:52:47,640 --> 00:52:52,319
Speaker 1: call to fire Ken Dorsey, is I think you're gonna

941
00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:55,480
Speaker 1: see a little bit more of a controlled Bill's offense.

942
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:59,319
Speaker 1: Never a fast offense in the first half. They were

943
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:02,839
Speaker 1: outside of twenty in first half pace, But I think

944
00:53:02,880 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 1: you're gonna see maybe a little bit more running the football.

945
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:09,960
Speaker 1: They could activate Leonard Fournette for the first time. James Cook,

946
00:53:10,440 --> 00:53:12,399
Speaker 1: you know, ran well, but he was fumbling a lot.

947
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:14,839
Speaker 1: But I think the Bills are gonna try to get

948
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:18,719
Speaker 1: back on track by not just trying to get it

949
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 1: on one play, because that's a lot of times what

950
00:53:21,239 --> 00:53:25,319
Speaker 1: Josh Allen looks to do and what I think gets

951
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:27,560
Speaker 1: him in trouble. And I'm sure Sean McDermot agrees, and

952
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:30,239
Speaker 1: that's why Josh Allen has led the league in turnovers

953
00:53:30,480 --> 00:53:33,160
Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen and twenty twenty and

954
00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:36,360
Speaker 1: twenty one and twenty two. So I think you're just

955
00:53:36,400 --> 00:53:38,760
Speaker 1: gonna see a more controlled offensive even if the Bills

956
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:42,480
Speaker 1: do score. I think you're going against this Jet defense

957
00:53:42,520 --> 00:53:45,320
Speaker 1: that's one of the top defenses in the league. I

958
00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:47,239
Speaker 1: think you're gonna see. I think they're gonna have to

959
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:51,279
Speaker 1: take some longer drives here. I think the Jets are

960
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:53,879
Speaker 1: going to be able to kind of make them work

961
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 1: for it, and you should put it on the ground

962
00:53:56,960 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 1: against the Jet defense. So we hope that the we'll

963
00:54:00,480 --> 00:54:01,959
Speaker 1: go back to that. Maybe you'll get some more Josh

964
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:06,839
Speaker 1: Allen run plays. But I think what they're definitely going

965
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:09,160
Speaker 1: to try to do is win with the turnover. So

966
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 1: I think for a first half under that's actually good.

967
00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:13,399
Speaker 1: You just want these teams kind of driving down the field.

968
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:16,920
Speaker 1: Hopefully you can make a stop in the red zone

969
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:22,239
Speaker 1: or two, and then you know the Bills defense has

970
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:27,440
Speaker 1: been obviously very banged up, but you're going against a

971
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:31,759
Speaker 1: Jet offense that's thirty second and third down conversion rate

972
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:35,320
Speaker 1: at twenty five percent and thirty second in red zone

973
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:40,520
Speaker 1: conversion rate at twenty three percent. So in the first half,

974
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:43,840
Speaker 1: you know those things, you know you can make some stops.

975
00:54:43,960 --> 00:54:47,160
Speaker 1: Jets probably settle for three. It's the second half I'm

976
00:54:47,200 --> 00:54:49,719
Speaker 1: a little more worried about because you do have a

977
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 1: really talented quarterback who's willing to still go down the field,

978
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:56,680
Speaker 1: and some talented receivers, and you know, both quarterbacks are

979
00:54:56,719 --> 00:54:58,839
Speaker 1: liveble to turn the ball over, and you know if

980
00:54:58,880 --> 00:55:00,719
Speaker 1: they're kind of backed up, I have to go for

981
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 1: and all those things. So I think the first half

982
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 1: is a little bit safer in this one. The full

983
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 1: game is forty. The first half is twenty or nineteen

984
00:55:07,080 --> 00:55:11,000
Speaker 1: and a half, So going first half under Jets Bills

985
00:55:11,560 --> 00:55:16,880
Speaker 1: and hoping the Bills attempt some long scoring drives or

986
00:55:16,960 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 1: just get shut down by this top tier Jet pass defense.

987
00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:23,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jets offense is not going to take advantage of

988
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:28,160
Speaker 2: this Bill's defensive problems. No quarterback has done anything against

989
00:55:28,160 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 2: the Jets. D and Allen has historically seen ghosts against

990
00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:35,680
Speaker 2: the Jets ten career starts against New York ten interceptions,

991
00:55:35,719 --> 00:55:39,359
Speaker 2: nine touchdowns, sacked twenty four times, rating of seventy nine.

992
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:41,080
Speaker 2: So yeah, I like this one.

993
00:55:41,600 --> 00:55:45,200
Speaker 1: So I got Jets bills under first half under nineteen

994
00:55:45,239 --> 00:55:49,000
Speaker 1: and a half, stuck as Dolphins Raiders under forty six

995
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:51,440
Speaker 1: and a half. Now it's time for our favorite teaser

996
00:55:52,080 --> 00:56:06,040
Speaker 1: of the week. Oh yeah, six point teasers don't tease me.

997
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 1: Stuck is going eight and two on this show this

998
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:16,920
Speaker 1: year on his teasers, I'm at six and four. So

999
00:56:16,960 --> 00:56:20,520
Speaker 1: as a pod, we're fourteen and six, so pretty pretty good.

1000
00:56:21,080 --> 00:56:24,800
Speaker 1: But Stuck, where are you going for a week eleven?

1001
00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:28,600
Speaker 2: Uh? Yeah, I'm gonna go. You're There's not a ton

1002
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:32,640
Speaker 2: of ideal teaser pieces. One of them is Minnesota lower

1003
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 2: total get them from you know, crossing three and seven,

1004
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:39,600
Speaker 2: which is ideally what you want to do. So we're

1005
00:56:39,600 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 2: gonna go with the Vikings and then I'm gonna throw

1006
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:46,040
Speaker 2: the Bills in there. Lower total going from seven to spread,

1007
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:48,240
Speaker 2: I make over seven seven and a half. So really

1008
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:52,000
Speaker 2: for my numbers, I'm crossing seven and three go to one.

1009
00:56:52,040 --> 00:56:54,400
Speaker 2: I think this, But look the Buffalo. I've been fading

1010
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 2: the Bills for five weeks on this I've been I

1011
00:56:58,040 --> 00:56:59,560
Speaker 2: have a fading I faint the Bills every week on

1012
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:03,520
Speaker 2: the show or Monday Night. Last week because of their defense,

1013
00:57:03,560 --> 00:57:05,719
Speaker 2: I didn't think that the market was properly accounting for

1014
00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:11,440
Speaker 2: the drop off to the replacement players. And now you're

1015
00:57:11,480 --> 00:57:14,640
Speaker 2: hearing all the commentary Bills, Bills are done, Micky Turbot's

1016
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:18,560
Speaker 2: gonna go. Allen's a fraud. It's over people. Now everyone's

1017
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:21,520
Speaker 2: gonna try and fade the Bills. It's time to buy

1018
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:25,440
Speaker 2: the Bills. I don't want to lay seven here what

1019
00:57:25,560 --> 00:57:27,560
Speaker 2: should be a lower scoring game, given Allen's troubles against

1020
00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:30,280
Speaker 2: the Jets and how good the Jets defenses. But I

1021
00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:31,640
Speaker 2: think the Bills will win this game at home. Good

1022
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:33,480
Speaker 2: bounce back spot and if I like what I see

1023
00:57:33,480 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 2: from the coordinator and some of the play calling changes. Well,

1024
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:38,760
Speaker 2: the offense wasn't a problem. There's I mean, it was

1025
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:42,160
Speaker 2: a little bit off. There's just a lot of turnovers,

1026
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:45,880
Speaker 2: some freaky but if they clean it up a little

1027
00:57:45,880 --> 00:57:49,480
Speaker 2: bit here, another by spot next week at in Philly.

1028
00:57:49,680 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 2: But we'll talk about that next week. But now it's

1029
00:57:54,520 --> 00:57:56,800
Speaker 2: time to buy the bills see if they bottomed out.

1030
00:57:57,080 --> 00:57:58,920
Speaker 2: So Bill's Vikings.

1031
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:02,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll go Vikings as well, and I'll pair of

1032
00:58:02,680 --> 00:58:06,200
Speaker 1: them with the Rams going from one to seven. Not

1033
00:58:06,440 --> 00:58:11,360
Speaker 1: really many other pieces I like either, and don't want

1034
00:58:11,440 --> 00:58:15,080
Speaker 1: us one hundred percent invested on the bills in case

1035
00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:18,240
Speaker 1: Josh Allen has another one of his disastered. I still

1036
00:58:18,240 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 1: don't know how the Jets are going to score, but

1037
00:58:21,320 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 1: I mean maybe it's off of Josh Allen turnover. So

1038
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:27,600
Speaker 1: we'll just diversify a little. I'll just go with the

1039
00:58:27,680 --> 00:58:30,640
Speaker 1: Vikes and the Rams, both of them, of which I

1040
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:36,800
Speaker 1: talked about already. So let's jump right into our underdog

1041
00:58:37,080 --> 00:58:40,600
Speaker 1: money line parlay. But first, as a reminder, the Action

1042
00:58:40,640 --> 00:58:43,880
Speaker 1: Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM and you can

1043
00:58:44,000 --> 00:58:47,880
Speaker 1: use bonus code Action Act IOWAN when signing up to

1044
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:50,840
Speaker 1: get up to fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus

1045
00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:59,600
Speaker 1: bets if your first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts,

1046
00:58:59,680 --> 00:59:04,640
Speaker 1: mission In, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia,

1047
00:59:04,680 --> 00:59:08,640
Speaker 1: and Wyoming, terms of conditions apply. Must be twenty one

1048
00:59:08,720 --> 00:59:14,360
Speaker 1: or older. Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right,

1049
00:59:14,440 --> 00:59:23,840
Speaker 1: time for our money line underdog Parley turning good weekends

1050
00:59:24,120 --> 00:59:25,760
Speaker 1: into great weekends.

1051
00:59:26,200 --> 00:59:28,760
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay.

1052
00:59:29,760 --> 00:59:33,760
Speaker 1: Both with last week, where you going for your money

1053
00:59:33,800 --> 00:59:35,560
Speaker 1: on Doug This week, I'll go to the short one here.

1054
00:59:35,600 --> 00:59:38,640
Speaker 2: Let's go with the Rams. Already covered this early in

1055
00:59:38,640 --> 00:59:41,040
Speaker 2: the episode. I make them one one and a half

1056
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:44,120
Speaker 2: point favorite. Like the spot, like the matchup. Let's go

1057
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:46,600
Speaker 2: with the Rams.

1058
00:59:47,160 --> 00:59:50,919
Speaker 1: I go with the Green Bay Packers plus one thirty

1059
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:54,400
Speaker 1: five against the Chargers at home. You know, this Packer

1060
00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:59,080
Speaker 1: team has been somewhat unlucky, and I think Jordan Love

1061
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:02,200
Speaker 1: is starting to to play better. You know, I like

1062
01:00:02,680 --> 01:00:05,000
Speaker 1: some of what I'm seeing from him. I knew he

1063
01:00:05,040 --> 01:00:06,800
Speaker 1: threw two more picks at the end of that game

1064
01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:09,120
Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh, but that put him in a tough spot

1065
01:00:09,160 --> 01:00:12,960
Speaker 1: with the missed extra point creating that four point deficit,

1066
01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:14,960
Speaker 1: so he had to keep kind of trying to get

1067
01:00:15,000 --> 01:00:17,560
Speaker 1: touchdowns and seeing you know, Christian Watson didn't do him

1068
01:00:17,600 --> 01:00:22,200
Speaker 1: any favors on a tipball. They're playing D'antavian Wixmore, he's

1069
01:00:22,200 --> 01:00:24,640
Speaker 1: starting to emerge, so maybe maybe you have to rely

1070
01:00:24,760 --> 01:00:27,600
Speaker 1: on Watson Less, who seems to be a bit turnover prone.

1071
01:00:27,600 --> 01:00:30,240
Speaker 1: You know, I think there's like five interceptions targeting him

1072
01:00:30,280 --> 01:00:33,520
Speaker 1: this year for love and not really creating those touchdowns

1073
01:00:33,560 --> 01:00:37,000
Speaker 1: like he was for Aaron Rodgers last year. So you know,

1074
01:00:37,120 --> 01:00:41,680
Speaker 1: read is playing well. This Charger defense is bad, so

1075
01:00:41,800 --> 01:00:44,760
Speaker 1: I think the Packers can have some success there, and

1076
01:00:44,800 --> 01:00:49,880
Speaker 1: then you know, the Packers run defense being shaky doesn't

1077
01:00:49,920 --> 01:00:52,680
Speaker 1: necessarily come into play against the Chargers as much as

1078
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:55,600
Speaker 1: it would for most teams because the Chargers, even with

1079
01:00:55,640 --> 01:00:58,560
Speaker 1: their injuries, are still gonna put it in the hands

1080
01:00:58,560 --> 01:01:01,080
Speaker 1: of Justin Herbert. So you know, Chargers they can win

1081
01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:03,240
Speaker 1: any game, they can lose any game because they're always

1082
01:01:03,280 --> 01:01:08,600
Speaker 1: playing close games. So give me the Packers, all right.

1083
01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:11,720
Speaker 1: If you parlay Rams minus one five Packers plus one

1084
01:01:11,720 --> 01:01:15,960
Speaker 1: thirty five, get parlay odds of about three plus three sixty.

1085
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:19,600
Speaker 1: Now it is time four the best of the rest

1086
01:01:19,680 --> 01:01:23,440
Speaker 1: games we haven't covered in any other segment, but are still,

1087
01:01:23,520 --> 01:01:28,200
Speaker 1: as they say, meaningful to some That's going to be

1088
01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:30,520
Speaker 1: a touchdown, but that may be meaningful to some of you.

1089
01:01:32,000 --> 01:01:34,320
Speaker 1: You know what I mean, first off, we got the

1090
01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:38,840
Speaker 1: Giants going to Washington to take on the Commanders. Commanders

1091
01:01:38,880 --> 01:01:42,440
Speaker 1: favored by nine and a half. The total is thirty seven.

1092
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:47,720
Speaker 1: You know, and our Happy Hour show stuck. A couple

1093
01:01:47,720 --> 01:01:49,760
Speaker 1: of people were asking about, you know, take the Giants

1094
01:01:49,800 --> 01:01:52,439
Speaker 1: and the points. I think somebody even mentioned some giant

1095
01:01:52,520 --> 01:01:55,439
Speaker 1: money line you said, mixing the water. I don't think

1096
01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:59,400
Speaker 1: like if the Giants are ever to to randomly win

1097
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:03,280
Speaker 1: a game with this terrible situation they got going, I

1098
01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:05,920
Speaker 1: do think the Commanders would be succeptible. Remember they came

1099
01:02:05,960 --> 01:02:08,720
Speaker 1: out and got doubled up by the Bears forty to twenty.

1100
01:02:09,600 --> 01:02:11,400
Speaker 1: This command scene seems to be able to play up

1101
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:15,439
Speaker 1: and down to anybody. So I'm not really touching this one.

1102
01:02:15,480 --> 01:02:18,640
Speaker 1: But I wouldn't be surprised if some wonky goes on

1103
01:02:18,680 --> 01:02:20,640
Speaker 1: in this one, or the Commanders could just win like

1104
01:02:20,680 --> 01:02:22,960
Speaker 1: thirty five nothing. But that's why I'm staying away.

1105
01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:25,240
Speaker 2: What do you think? Yeah, I make this right on.

1106
01:02:25,720 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 2: I like what I've seen from how lately is timing

1107
01:02:28,600 --> 01:02:30,960
Speaker 2: in the pocket getting rid of the ball quicker, and

1108
01:02:31,000 --> 01:02:33,040
Speaker 2: I've also liked what I've seen against the Blitz all year.

1109
01:02:33,160 --> 01:02:35,360
Speaker 2: And that's when you can just make quick decisions and

1110
01:02:35,560 --> 01:02:39,200
Speaker 2: it's gonna get a heavy blitz here against the Giants.

1111
01:02:39,360 --> 01:02:42,800
Speaker 2: But I'm right on market and I'm not. I'm not

1112
01:02:42,880 --> 01:02:47,440
Speaker 2: laying ten here, but I'm not betting Tommy DeVito. You

1113
01:02:47,560 --> 01:02:51,760
Speaker 2: have to give me, I don't know, fourteen and a half.

1114
01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:53,880
Speaker 2: So if this line moves to fourteen and a half,

1115
01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:58,280
Speaker 2: I'll take the Giants pass. I hope I see zero

1116
01:02:58,320 --> 01:02:58,960
Speaker 2: plays in that game.

1117
01:02:59,680 --> 01:03:03,480
Speaker 1: Washington was one for fifteen on third down a few

1118
01:03:03,520 --> 01:03:07,640
Speaker 1: weeks ago in that loss to the Giants. In met

1119
01:03:07,640 --> 01:03:16,120
Speaker 1: Life Bucks at forty nine ers Niners favored by eleven

1120
01:03:16,120 --> 01:03:18,440
Speaker 1: and a half to total forty one and a half.

1121
01:03:20,440 --> 01:03:23,560
Speaker 1: Some sharp money coming in on the under here. The

1122
01:03:23,600 --> 01:03:26,720
Speaker 1: Bucks have been playing. They played a really high scoring

1123
01:03:26,720 --> 01:03:30,680
Speaker 1: game against Houston Indoors, but outside of that, it's been

1124
01:03:30,760 --> 01:03:34,080
Speaker 1: a lot of these twenty to six type games for them.

1125
01:03:34,400 --> 01:03:37,280
Speaker 1: But I don't really see them doing much here though.

1126
01:03:37,400 --> 01:03:40,200
Speaker 1: Their run defense is kind of back to where where

1127
01:03:40,200 --> 01:03:43,919
Speaker 1: we expect, which is helpful against the forty nine ers.

1128
01:03:44,200 --> 01:03:47,959
Speaker 1: But do you what do you see with this one? Yeah?

1129
01:03:48,000 --> 01:03:50,240
Speaker 2: I think that the way does the forty nine ers

1130
01:03:50,280 --> 01:03:54,440
Speaker 2: play defense good spell trouble now, especially now that you

1131
01:03:54,440 --> 01:03:59,640
Speaker 2: have Chase Young to compliment both. On the other side,

1132
01:04:00,280 --> 01:04:05,440
Speaker 2: get natural pressure against the Bucks play with a lot

1133
01:04:05,480 --> 01:04:07,920
Speaker 2: of d bacs, different looks in the back end. You

1134
01:04:07,960 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 2: could see a lot of bigger mistakes here. Thinky Basis

1135
01:04:12,080 --> 01:04:15,880
Speaker 2: have to avoid some pretty mistakes throwing into some zones.

1136
01:04:15,920 --> 01:04:18,960
Speaker 2: But fort nine is back healthy. It's hard for me

1137
01:04:19,000 --> 01:04:20,600
Speaker 2: to see a path for the Bucks, but I'm pretty

1138
01:04:20,640 --> 01:04:24,600
Speaker 2: close to market. Uh this fort nine is taking money

1139
01:04:24,600 --> 01:04:27,800
Speaker 2: for a reason. They're helping now. Probably going a bit

1140
01:04:27,840 --> 01:04:30,600
Speaker 2: of a run here, but can't lay at this number

1141
01:04:30,640 --> 01:04:31,520
Speaker 2: of paths.

1142
01:04:32,000 --> 01:04:37,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, and with Debo healthy and Trent Williams back, you

1143
01:04:37,880 --> 01:04:40,800
Speaker 1: know whatever issues Perty had against zones, I mean he

1144
01:04:40,880 --> 01:04:46,440
Speaker 1: did make one really risky throw across his body that

1145
01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:47,120
Speaker 1: was ridiculous.

1146
01:04:47,160 --> 01:04:48,080
Speaker 2: How you got that?

1147
01:04:48,640 --> 01:04:50,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, it feels like he's had a few of those

1148
01:04:50,280 --> 01:04:52,960
Speaker 1: this yet. I remember one. I think Patrick Peterson had

1149
01:04:52,960 --> 01:04:56,360
Speaker 1: perfect coverage on at Uka. He just took like a

1150
01:04:56,400 --> 01:04:58,800
Speaker 1: lot of Auke touchdowns this year have been contested and

1151
01:04:58,920 --> 01:05:02,160
Speaker 1: just like end point throw those great catches. So hey,

1152
01:05:02,200 --> 01:05:04,240
Speaker 1: more power to him. But you know Kiddle had alone

1153
01:05:04,320 --> 01:05:08,800
Speaker 1: touchdown Debo's Debo's back taking a handoffside of the backfield

1154
01:05:08,840 --> 01:05:11,360
Speaker 1: to Jet sweep. So yeah, this team is not our team.

1155
01:05:11,440 --> 01:05:16,400
Speaker 1: Is gonna be hard for the Bucks to stop Titans

1156
01:05:16,480 --> 01:05:20,400
Speaker 1: Jags in Jacksonville, Jags favored by six and a half

1157
01:05:20,440 --> 01:05:24,120
Speaker 1: coming off that thirty four to three loss to the

1158
01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:27,400
Speaker 1: forty nine ers. Gotta feel like it's a bounce back

1159
01:05:27,440 --> 01:05:31,640
Speaker 1: spot for the Jags. Uh. Will Levis seems to be

1160
01:05:31,760 --> 01:05:35,520
Speaker 1: going downhill, doesn't really seem to have many answers against pressure,

1161
01:05:35,600 --> 01:05:38,480
Speaker 1: and Billard has not been good this year, but I

1162
01:05:38,480 --> 01:05:42,480
Speaker 1: believe he's in concussion protocol now. So they had Dylan Reddens.

1163
01:05:42,480 --> 01:05:45,920
Speaker 2: That might be better after what helps hold till it started

1164
01:05:45,960 --> 01:05:48,400
Speaker 2: last week. Holy, he was, ah, yeah, he just.

1165
01:05:48,360 --> 01:05:49,920
Speaker 1: Got run by over and over. I think at one

1166
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:53,160
Speaker 1: point they put Vitaveya on the outside. He's a defensive packle, like.

1167
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:54,720
Speaker 2: You know, Yeah, it looked like he didn't even know

1168
01:05:54,800 --> 01:05:56,520
Speaker 2: what was that. There was a staff. He was just

1169
01:05:56,520 --> 01:05:58,520
Speaker 2: getting run around every It was bad.

1170
01:05:58,760 --> 01:06:01,040
Speaker 1: And then and now I hear people talking about practice

1171
01:06:01,240 --> 01:06:03,480
Speaker 1: like he's named in practice squad guys as guys he

1172
01:06:03,560 --> 01:06:06,160
Speaker 1: might put out there. So this is a I did

1173
01:06:06,200 --> 01:06:09,480
Speaker 1: consider this under as well, But I do think the

1174
01:06:09,600 --> 01:06:12,680
Speaker 1: Jaguars can have some success here though I think their

1175
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:15,960
Speaker 1: offense has been a bit disappointing, especially with Calvin Ridley

1176
01:06:16,040 --> 01:06:18,280
Speaker 1: just you know, running them up the sidelines like he's

1177
01:06:19,200 --> 01:06:22,200
Speaker 1: George Pickens and Terror Lawrence is kind of picking or something.

1178
01:06:22,280 --> 01:06:26,120
Speaker 1: But not a good matchup for Tennessee. So nothing for

1179
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:27,840
Speaker 1: me to really do here because I don't I don't

1180
01:06:27,880 --> 01:06:30,640
Speaker 1: like to fade Rabel as a dog either, what about you?

1181
01:06:31,440 --> 01:06:33,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the Titans of owing the Jags historically, I

1182
01:06:33,320 --> 01:06:35,800
Speaker 2: mean they almost be limited for the playoffs with uh,

1183
01:06:36,000 --> 01:06:42,840
Speaker 2: well now we know the Yeah, I mean I'm I'm

1184
01:06:42,880 --> 01:06:45,720
Speaker 2: close to market here. Jacks are still so inconsistent, but

1185
01:06:45,760 --> 01:06:49,240
Speaker 2: the Titans have major protection issues right now. I mean

1186
01:06:49,320 --> 01:06:52,280
Speaker 2: Levis has been hit thirty two times over the past

1187
01:06:52,320 --> 01:06:58,439
Speaker 2: three games, and yeah, I mean it's it's bad and

1188
01:06:59,080 --> 01:07:03,280
Speaker 2: not goil a run against the Levis looked. Yeah, it

1189
01:07:03,280 --> 01:07:06,240
Speaker 2: should have some clashes in his first start, but it's

1190
01:07:06,240 --> 01:07:08,480
Speaker 2: regressed and it's really hard to get better when you're

1191
01:07:08,520 --> 01:07:12,320
Speaker 2: just under fire, like right when you snap it. I

1192
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:17,680
Speaker 2: think Traylon Burk's probably still out, although I don't know there. Yeah,

1193
01:07:17,680 --> 01:07:20,800
Speaker 2: I don't like to fade very Ball as a touchdown

1194
01:07:20,800 --> 01:07:22,840
Speaker 2: dog in the divisional game against a team that he's owned,

1195
01:07:23,360 --> 01:07:24,280
Speaker 2: so passed.

1196
01:07:24,760 --> 01:07:28,680
Speaker 1: Wrap it up with the Cowboys at the Panthers. Panthers

1197
01:07:28,800 --> 01:07:32,760
Speaker 1: ten and a half point home Dogs, the total forty two.

1198
01:07:33,640 --> 01:07:37,360
Speaker 1: This is one where probably would think about the Panthers

1199
01:07:37,360 --> 01:07:40,720
Speaker 1: if they were a team that I wasn't completely hands

1200
01:07:40,720 --> 01:07:43,000
Speaker 1: off with all year. I mean, this is I could

1201
01:07:43,000 --> 01:07:44,920
Speaker 1: see this disaster coming from a by way, and now

1202
01:07:44,920 --> 01:07:47,840
Speaker 1: Frank Reich is apparently taken back play calling duties. I

1203
01:07:47,880 --> 01:07:50,280
Speaker 1: mean it is. It's it's turned into a clown show

1204
01:07:50,320 --> 01:07:52,840
Speaker 1: out there in Carolina. I mean, you lose to the Bears,

1205
01:07:52,960 --> 01:07:55,840
Speaker 1: you lose to Tyson Bagent. Bryce Young is really struggling

1206
01:07:55,880 --> 01:07:58,040
Speaker 1: against pressure. So you know, you kind of caught the

1207
01:07:58,040 --> 01:08:00,840
Speaker 1: Cowboys caught lightning in a bottle laying the was a

1208
01:08:00,960 --> 01:08:04,720
Speaker 1: seventeen seventeen and a half last week. This is a

1209
01:08:04,720 --> 01:08:08,000
Speaker 1: lower number. Cowboys should cover it. Dak has been excellent

1210
01:08:08,720 --> 01:08:11,040
Speaker 1: in these spots, you know, as a big favorite, But

1211
01:08:12,360 --> 01:08:14,880
Speaker 1: just a pass for me because I think, you know,

1212
01:08:15,040 --> 01:08:16,920
Speaker 1: this could be a little bit of a letdown for

1213
01:08:17,040 --> 01:08:20,320
Speaker 1: the Cowboys as well. So I do I don't want

1214
01:08:20,320 --> 01:08:22,080
Speaker 1: any parts of this rebout.

1215
01:08:21,680 --> 01:08:27,719
Speaker 2: You Yeah, no parts. I mean Prescott's scond most profitable

1216
01:08:27,760 --> 01:08:29,360
Speaker 2: quarterback against the spread as a favorite of the six

1217
01:08:29,439 --> 01:08:35,000
Speaker 2: or morely by Tom Brady. He's also like sixty nine

1218
01:08:35,040 --> 01:08:39,160
Speaker 2: percent against the spread as against teams of the losing record.

1219
01:08:40,280 --> 01:08:42,880
Speaker 2: And you know, the Panthers, the way that they do

1220
01:08:42,960 --> 01:08:46,840
Speaker 2: run defense and their scheme could have some success lowing

1221
01:08:46,880 --> 01:08:53,000
Speaker 2: down the Cowboys. But the reason that Dak has those numbers,

1222
01:08:53,000 --> 01:08:56,320
Speaker 2: it's not just because of his performance. It's because usually

1223
01:08:56,320 --> 01:08:57,599
Speaker 2: you get a lead over a bad team and then

1224
01:08:57,640 --> 01:09:00,479
Speaker 2: that defense just takes over. And the way that Pryce

1225
01:09:00,560 --> 01:09:03,320
Speaker 2: Young's been playing, how can you back him against this defense.

1226
01:09:04,120 --> 01:09:07,400
Speaker 2: I mean, he threw multiple pick sixes against the Colts defense,

1227
01:09:08,120 --> 01:09:10,920
Speaker 2: so this could get ugly. But I can't lay it

1228
01:09:10,920 --> 01:09:12,320
Speaker 2: with the Cowboys of this number. But it's not a

1229
01:09:12,320 --> 01:09:13,720
Speaker 2: team I want to fade right out. I love it,

1230
01:09:13,760 --> 01:09:16,200
Speaker 2: like the Cowboys pretty much dominated the Eagles in Philly,

1231
01:09:16,800 --> 01:09:19,599
Speaker 2: just got unlucky, dominated the Giants last week. Everything's clicking

1232
01:09:19,640 --> 01:09:21,320
Speaker 2: for them. I love what's going on with the offense

1233
01:09:21,840 --> 01:09:24,360
Speaker 2: during more on early downs, Dat using his legs. The

1234
01:09:24,439 --> 01:09:26,880
Speaker 2: defense is adjusted to post Diggs life. You know you

1235
01:09:26,960 --> 01:09:29,920
Speaker 2: got Deron Bland is playing really well. Mark He's like

1236
01:09:30,000 --> 01:09:32,840
Speaker 2: Brander ashes out for the year. Who cares Marku's bells

1237
01:09:32,880 --> 01:09:35,320
Speaker 2: better Cowboys get up and then just say, like, who cares?

1238
01:09:35,360 --> 01:09:39,320
Speaker 2: This game is meaningless. We're gonna wins, get stopped thrown. Yeah,

1239
01:09:39,320 --> 01:09:41,760
Speaker 2: and you could see the Cowboys go a little conservatively,

1240
01:09:41,880 --> 01:09:43,439
Speaker 2: but that it could still work because they have they

1241
01:09:43,439 --> 01:09:46,200
Speaker 2: have a game on Thursday and Thanksgiving. I should mention

1242
01:09:46,320 --> 01:09:49,400
Speaker 2: that we will for college, for big uts on campus

1243
01:09:49,400 --> 01:09:52,280
Speaker 2: and for your fantasy stuff, and for this podcast. We

1244
01:09:52,320 --> 01:09:55,400
Speaker 2: will like the two of the craziest days of the year.

1245
01:09:55,600 --> 01:09:59,479
Speaker 2: We will get everything up by Wednesday morning for all

1246
01:09:59,560 --> 01:10:01,559
Speaker 2: the listeners College, NFL fantasy.

1247
01:10:02,240 --> 01:10:04,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you'll everyone, y'all have y'all have all of

1248
01:10:04,520 --> 01:10:06,920
Speaker 1: that content so you can make all your bets for

1249
01:10:07,200 --> 01:10:11,120
Speaker 1: that the Thanksgiving slate and the main slate that weekend.

1250
01:10:11,280 --> 01:10:13,799
Speaker 1: So yeah, we'll we'll go ball to the wall and grind.

1251
01:10:13,920 --> 01:10:17,000
Speaker 1: So uh so, you guys are are covered. You guys

1252
01:10:17,000 --> 01:10:20,880
Speaker 1: and gals out there are covered. But yeah, that is

1253
01:10:21,520 --> 01:10:25,600
Speaker 1: gonna do it for Best of the Rest Survivor the

1254
01:10:30,680 --> 01:10:35,760
Speaker 1: Survivor Pool Pick of the Week Dallas hit last week.

1255
01:10:35,880 --> 01:10:39,479
Speaker 1: I have a gap in confidence between the Lions against

1256
01:10:39,479 --> 01:10:43,599
Speaker 1: the Bears in the divisional game and the Jaguars against

1257
01:10:43,640 --> 01:10:46,200
Speaker 1: the Titans. In a divisional game, and then just the

1258
01:10:46,240 --> 01:10:50,000
Speaker 1: interconference Texans again. Yeah, I'm gonna go Lions. This is

1259
01:10:50,120 --> 01:10:54,160
Speaker 1: This is probably the toughest week I remember yet, but

1260
01:10:55,040 --> 01:10:56,720
Speaker 1: I just feel better about the Lion scoring point. So

1261
01:10:56,720 --> 01:10:59,600
Speaker 1: we're going lines here, all right. That's going rabbit for

1262
01:10:59,720 --> 01:11:03,759
Speaker 1: a week eleven. Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

1263
01:11:03,880 --> 01:11:07,880
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. We'll be back every Thursday all season long,

1264
01:11:08,160 --> 01:11:11,479
Speaker 1: except next week. Obviously we'll be able to earlier. I

1265
01:11:11,520 --> 01:11:14,479
Speaker 1: should be out by Wednesday. You can hear more of

1266
01:11:14,520 --> 01:11:16,960
Speaker 1: me this week with my guy Sean Kerner, the odds maker,

1267
01:11:17,000 --> 01:11:20,120
Speaker 1: talking fantasy dfs all that good stuff on the Fantasy

1268
01:11:20,120 --> 01:11:23,360
Speaker 1: Flex Podcast, and also be sure to check out the

1269
01:11:23,360 --> 01:11:26,599
Speaker 1: Action Network Discord server if you want to chat with

1270
01:11:26,720 --> 01:11:31,160
Speaker 1: Action experts directly. Wink will be in the episode description Stuck.

1271
01:11:31,600 --> 01:11:34,200
Speaker 1: We'll be talking college football over on the Big Bets

1272
01:11:34,240 --> 01:11:36,760
Speaker 1: on Campus pod on Friday morning, and you can find

1273
01:11:36,800 --> 01:11:39,879
Speaker 1: Stuck on X at Stucky two. I'm at Chris Raybond

1274
01:11:40,200 --> 01:11:42,120
Speaker 1: and we're at those same handles on the free award

1275
01:11:42,120 --> 01:11:45,679
Speaker 1: winning Action Network app where you can follow our bets

1276
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Speaker 1: or track yours Until next time.

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Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is

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Speaker 1: available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler