WEBVTT - Colleges Embrace a Post-SAT Future

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>Eastern Time on the Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg clovel News shutting down again. I do

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<v Speaker 1>feel like that's our theme right now. More companies and

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<v Speaker 1>even cities telling workers in an individuals to stay home

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<v Speaker 1>city group we mentioned telling staffers here in the New

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<v Speaker 1>York City metro area to work from home again through

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<v Speaker 1>the holidays if they can. Starting the recent rise in

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen cases in the region, and then we saw

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<v Speaker 1>what I think, almost half of workers in the city

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<v Speaker 1>of London not going to the office on Monday. What

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<v Speaker 1>does it mean for for here? Well? In New York City.

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<v Speaker 1>The Health Commissioner said that COVID nineteen data show a

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<v Speaker 1>quote alarming trend and predicted a further increase in the

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<v Speaker 1>case curve. Yeah, it's it's just kind of where we are.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the snapshot. Hey, let's get some thoughts on the

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<v Speaker 1>current headlines and where we are as well. Ruth Aaden

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<v Speaker 1>is a founder of the Johns Hopkins Berman Institute of Bioethics,

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<v Speaker 1>Professor of Biomedical Ethics at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of

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<v Speaker 1>Public Health, which is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, Founder,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg LP, and Bloomberg Philanthropies. She joins us on this

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<v Speaker 1>Thursday from Martha's vineyard. Um, Dr Payden, nice to have

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<v Speaker 1>you here back with us. How are you? I'm buying

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<v Speaker 1>Carol and nice to be with you and Kim again.

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<v Speaker 1>So you do look at what's going on the pandemic,

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<v Speaker 1>um through an you know, ethics or bioethics lens. Having

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<v Speaker 1>said that, Um, what does that say to you right

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<v Speaker 1>now in terms of rolling out the vaccine? Where we

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<v Speaker 1>are in the pandemic seeing you know, another rise in cases? Yes? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>what it takes to me? I think three chief things.

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<v Speaker 1>The first is that we should not panic. We have

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<v Speaker 1>the tools in the toolbox and we know what to do.

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<v Speaker 1>So from the stample in each of these individuals, it's

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<v Speaker 1>the same message, the same message to the same message,

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<v Speaker 1>and get vaccinated, encourage other people to be vaccinated, get

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<v Speaker 1>boosters if you're eligible and live in the United States,

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<v Speaker 1>be more broadly eligible, and wear masks and indoor spaces

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<v Speaker 1>whether they're required or not. So that's the messaging. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>that's number one. Number two, remember that we are concerned

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<v Speaker 1>not about everyone equally, but about some people, especially so

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<v Speaker 1>for those of us who are under sixty five, who

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<v Speaker 1>are otherwise healthy, who's been fully vaccinated. This, especially if

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<v Speaker 1>we get our boosters, this should not be a particularly

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<v Speaker 1>difficult way. But but for people who don't hit that description,

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<v Speaker 1>this is not a nothing and we've been talking about

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<v Speaker 1>how it produces mild disease, but it probably produces so spectrum.

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<v Speaker 1>We're just adar to be. We're older Americans and people

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<v Speaker 1>at high risk an ethics matter, Get vascinated and protect

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<v Speaker 1>yourself again around higher risk people. What's interesting because yesterday

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<v Speaker 1>Drew Armstrong, senior editor for US Healthcare here at Bloomberg News,

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<v Speaker 1>had the big take talking about hospitals in Kentucky that

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<v Speaker 1>I have been under strained in the idea that when

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<v Speaker 1>a hospital does go under strain, that other people are affected,

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<v Speaker 1>even if they are irrespective of COVID. Right, if you

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<v Speaker 1>have a car accident, you can't get care. So that's

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<v Speaker 1>from an ethical perspective too, So we've been thinking a

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<v Speaker 1>lot about that. What about from the perspective of the

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<v Speaker 1>United States having access to boosters when many people around

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<v Speaker 1>the world don't even have access to that first shot?

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<v Speaker 1>And I got a lot of flak when I when

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<v Speaker 1>I sat on Twitter that I was that I was

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<v Speaker 1>boosted because somebody who listens to the show a lot

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<v Speaker 1>got in touch and and essentially tweeted at me and said,

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<v Speaker 1>how did it feel to get a booster when people

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<v Speaker 1>are in the world haven't gotten their first shot? What

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<v Speaker 1>are the ethics all right? So, Tim, that feels awful.

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<v Speaker 1>So when answer to the person who went back at you,

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<v Speaker 1>of course it feels awful. And I have for a

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<v Speaker 1>long time been in the camp saying we need to

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<v Speaker 1>concentrate on making sure that we have an equitable global

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<v Speaker 1>distribution of vaccine, and we are so far from that

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<v Speaker 1>it isn't even funny. We are now in a kind

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<v Speaker 1>of ethics tragedy of our own making. If we had

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<v Speaker 1>been more committed to global equity from the beginning, we

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<v Speaker 1>would not be in the terrible situation of being faced

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<v Speaker 1>with a strain that really does appear to require a

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<v Speaker 1>third dose to get back to the kinds of protection

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<v Speaker 1>we have had previously, when, as it's just rightly said,

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<v Speaker 1>there are large plots of the world's population who have

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<v Speaker 1>the ac their first dose. This is an unconscionable situation. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like there's no easy answer, no right answer, um,

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<v Speaker 1>or maybe no wrong. I don't know. I just I

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<v Speaker 1>think most people would say right, if you can get it.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean I felt that way in the early on

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<v Speaker 1>getting the booster. I wasn't I was able to get it,

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<v Speaker 1>but I've felt like I wasn't the most vulnerable, and

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<v Speaker 1>so I backed off and canceled an appointment, and then

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a couple of weeks later, it was like,

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<v Speaker 1>go get it if you can. And so I think

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<v Speaker 1>we're all finding our way through it, um, and we

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<v Speaker 1>know the arguments about getting political. Uh, what's your visibility

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<v Speaker 1>about maybe where we are six months from now, I'm curious.

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<v Speaker 1>It does feel like we're better than where we were

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<v Speaker 1>one year ago. I'm unclear about where we will be

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<v Speaker 1>one year from now. Um, how do you see it? All? Right?

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<v Speaker 1>Don't we say two things social on the point you

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<v Speaker 1>just raised, it all from the from the standpoint of

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<v Speaker 1>some individual ethics. Right now, it just is the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that vaccine that is being offered as muster doses to

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<v Speaker 1>Americans will not be sent to people outside of this country, right,

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<v Speaker 1>they will not, Right, So go ahead and get your

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<v Speaker 1>booster shot. At the same time, advocate advocate advocate well,

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<v Speaker 1>greater involvement, greater investment on the part of our government

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<v Speaker 1>in meeting the goal of global equity. So do both.

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<v Speaker 1>That's on that first point. Anybody who tells you where

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<v Speaker 1>we are going to be six months from now, good

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<v Speaker 1>luck to them, my cology. Your second point, But there

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<v Speaker 1>are some sitelines. I mean, with all humidity, humility, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>like everybody be humble here, right right. I listened a

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<v Speaker 1>lot and work a lot with colleagueses, wh show and

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<v Speaker 1>US policy levels. With any luck, with any luck, we

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<v Speaker 1>will be in a much better situation which respect to

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<v Speaker 1>global vaccine and supply by first and second quarters of

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<v Speaker 1>two fingers crossed. Dr Ruth Faden have a safe and

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<v Speaker 1>happy holiday season, founder of the Bourbon Institute of Bioethics

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<v Speaker 1>at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. You're

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<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Remember Tim, we

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<v Speaker 1>talked about this story this week about how colleges are

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<v Speaker 1>embracing a post pandemic future that increasingly does not include

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<v Speaker 1>those standardized tests like the S A T. Yeah, where

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<v Speaker 1>was this twenty years ago? That's what I'm wondering. Oh, yeah, really,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll do like guys, anyway, let's get to it. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>she's got this story. More Bloomberg News Higher Education finance

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<v Speaker 1>reporter Janet Lauren on the phone in New York City. Janet,

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<v Speaker 1>good to have you here. So our S A T

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<v Speaker 1>standardized testing, I mean, are we looking at a world

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<v Speaker 1>where they may just go away completely? Well, we've been

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<v Speaker 1>seeing announcements in the last couple of months that, um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, are continuing these trends of S A T optional. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>It started, of course during the pandemic when kids could

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<v Speaker 1>not get to test centers to take the test. UM

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<v Speaker 1>Stanford announced the last month that current juniors wouldn't have

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<v Speaker 1>to submit them. And also some of the some of

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<v Speaker 1>the optional um requirements have gone to sophomores like Columbia

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<v Speaker 1>and Cornell, and Amer said current sophomores don't have to

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<v Speaker 1>submit them. And also several graduate schools are saying, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>you don't have to submit testing as well. So, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>once you've had these optional requirements for years and years

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<v Speaker 1>and years in the University of Chicago has been test

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<v Speaker 1>options kind of hard to go back for these schools.

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<v Speaker 1>And really the biggest influence is the University of California

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<v Speaker 1>system with in those three hundred thousand students and if

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<v Speaker 1>a large number of kids who live in California not

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<v Speaker 1>taking them, you know, how do you say, well, just

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<v Speaker 1>for us take the test? Huh? Well, okay, So what

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<v Speaker 1>does this mean for how college is sort? And I

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<v Speaker 1>think of the sorting hat and Harry Potter, because that's

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<v Speaker 1>not something that these colleges have, right, you don't find

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<v Speaker 1>out where you're going. And one way that colleges did

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<v Speaker 1>that traditionally was through different metrics, including standardized tests. So

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<v Speaker 1>what are they doing now, especially you sees that are

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<v Speaker 1>you know, with so many applicants. Right, Well, they've always

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<v Speaker 1>used said they've always said grades are going to be

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<v Speaker 1>the most important. So they want to see what you've

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<v Speaker 1>done in your classes, How have you performed? Are you

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<v Speaker 1>taking the most rigorous and um, you know, some schools

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<v Speaker 1>have been sa T optional for a very long time,

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<v Speaker 1>like Bowden College in Maine has been sa T optional

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<v Speaker 1>for over fifty years. Um, there's a lot of other

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<v Speaker 1>ways to look at an applicant. Um, if you want

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<v Speaker 1>a test proxy, you could still take some AP test,

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<v Speaker 1>which I'm sure the college board would would like because

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<v Speaker 1>the exactly Um, however, UM, you know it'll be interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, how are school is going to look at

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<v Speaker 1>you know, how how are kids using their time? Because

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<v Speaker 1>now suddenly if they're not studying for these tests, things

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<v Speaker 1>have a lot more time. And we um, we had

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<v Speaker 1>a young woman in our story saying, you know, she

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<v Speaker 1>took it. She did, Okay, it wasn't worth it to

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<v Speaker 1>admit it, so she you know, she took more hours

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<v Speaker 1>in her job scooping ice creams. I think colleges will

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<v Speaker 1>be interested to see what kids do with all this

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<v Speaker 1>extra time and you know they still have to get

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<v Speaker 1>good grades. I thought, Um, the last line in the

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<v Speaker 1>story was very instructive from the dean of admissions at

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<v Speaker 1>the University of Chicagogan, which hasn't required them for years.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, it's you know, by not submitting a test score, um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you can't hide your grades. And if you

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<v Speaker 1>have a lot of seeds that's not you know, that

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't give you a proxy for thinking you're going to

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<v Speaker 1>get into one of those pots. Janet, is it is

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<v Speaker 1>it optional? Is it optional? Or is it don't submit it?

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<v Speaker 1>Because I do wonder about when it's optional and if

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<v Speaker 1>somebody does submit it, does it give them potentially an edge?

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<v Speaker 1>And just got about thirty seconds. I think if your

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<v Speaker 1>grades are are very strong and your test score is

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<v Speaker 1>very strong, it's not really telling the schools anything different,

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<v Speaker 1>all right. It's an interesting trend, right, It's one of

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<v Speaker 1>those things that's certainly to coming out of the pandemic

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<v Speaker 1>that has been a much more active and aggressive conversation

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<v Speaker 1>than before. Jannet Lauren, get to hear your voice. I

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<v Speaker 1>ran into her up on the link yesterday. It was

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<v Speaker 1>so nice to see her. Next time we'll get her

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<v Speaker 1>in the studio. Yeah, exactly, Jennet Lauren, Higher Education, Financial

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<v Speaker 1>port up Bloomberg News on the phone from New York City.

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<v Speaker 1>By the time Lag goes to college, I welcome this

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<v Speaker 1>to That's all I'm saying. It will be the we'll

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<v Speaker 1>think about all the stress, the sorting hat, the sorting hat. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>he'll be picked by a robot to go to robots

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<v Speaker 1>school to learn how to program robots fingerprint and somehow

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<v Speaker 1>they'll know exactly, like the perfect fit form exactly retinal

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<v Speaker 1>retinal like stan something weird. Look, I think that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>this is a source of anxiety for so many people,

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<v Speaker 1>and they're also like all the all the big studies

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<v Speaker 1>about bias, right, you know, who can afford to actually

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<v Speaker 1>prep for these things? But as you and I said, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>so what if it's more important the essay wealth Your

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<v Speaker 1>kids can maybe afford somebody to help them write it.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just a weird process. Great, This is Bloomberg. This

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<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes.

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<v Speaker 1>Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. How many times have you

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<v Speaker 1>talked to this dude today? This is my third time,

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<v Speaker 1>that's only going to be my second. I mean I

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<v Speaker 1>could go all day with Mike Reagan. I agree, I agree,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, folks. The cover story of business Week magazine,

0:11:56.440 --> 0:11:59.720
<v Speaker 1>it's a takeover the finance section, actually really taking over,

0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:02.800
<v Speaker 1>uh this particular coverage. It's a detail look at a

0:12:02.880 --> 0:12:05.880
<v Speaker 1>year that's our market headlines dominated by retail traders, meme stocks,

0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:09.680
<v Speaker 1>cryptocurrency SPACs. It was crazy writing about it for Bloomberg

0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:12.280
<v Speaker 1>business Week. Is Mike Reagan, senior editor for Bloomberg Markets.

0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.800
<v Speaker 1>He's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Mike

0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:17.000
<v Speaker 1>story is the cover of the brand new issue of

0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:19.400
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg business Week magazine. I just got my hands on it.

0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:21.480
<v Speaker 1>You can get your hands on it at newsstands and

0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:24.480
<v Speaker 1>online at Bloomberg dot com, slash business Week. That this

0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:26.320
<v Speaker 1>is great because it's so overarching, and if we think

0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:29.800
<v Speaker 1>about where we were in the rise of the retail trader,

0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:33.000
<v Speaker 1>meme stocks, n f T s, crypto Milania, Trump just

0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:35.080
<v Speaker 1>coming out with an n f T earlier today, we

0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:36.599
<v Speaker 1>were just talking about it. How are we going to

0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:39.240
<v Speaker 1>look back on this year? Yeah, definitely a crazy er.

0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:41.360
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think what's really interesting is just this

0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:44.880
<v Speaker 1>confluence of events that you know, we've never seen before

0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:47.440
<v Speaker 1>in history. Knock on would we never see again, but

0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:50.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, sort of the seeds being planted. I think

0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:53.000
<v Speaker 1>even before the virus, you know that this move to

0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:56.440
<v Speaker 1>commission free trading, for example, I think is something I

0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:58.880
<v Speaker 1>didn't get into detailing in the story, but I think

0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:02.319
<v Speaker 1>it's part of it. And sort crypto reaching its adolescence,

0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:05.920
<v Speaker 1>and all this happening right at a time where suddenly

0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:09.679
<v Speaker 1>we all found ourselves locked at home, um with some

0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:11.880
<v Speaker 1>extra money, you know, whether it be from the government

0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:15.840
<v Speaker 1>stimulus payments, just from not being able to to go

0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:18.360
<v Speaker 1>out and spend it on other things, and you know,

0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:22.080
<v Speaker 1>everyone kind of turned to their computer screens for I think,

0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:24.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, not only entertainment, but also the sense of community,

0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:27.440
<v Speaker 1>the sense of you know, the need to interact with

0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:32.120
<v Speaker 1>other people, and people stumbled into these social media rabbit holes,

0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:35.200
<v Speaker 1>whether it be Wall Street bets on Reddit or you know,

0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:38.600
<v Speaker 1>the the discord chats where all the crypto people hang out,

0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:41.920
<v Speaker 1>UM to Twitter and even you know, just text messages

0:13:42.160 --> 0:13:44.480
<v Speaker 1>among friends. And you know, I talk about the notion

0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:48.040
<v Speaker 1>of identity investing, the notion that you know, these communities

0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:52.000
<v Speaker 1>are formed and people sort of gravitate to them, and

0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:55.720
<v Speaker 1>suddenly you have a new fundamental driver of of asset prices.

0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:58.400
<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, it's not necessarily the cash flow

0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:01.680
<v Speaker 1>that the company's spinning off that is the important driver

0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:04.720
<v Speaker 1>of the stock. It's doesn't have a community of people

0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:08.320
<v Speaker 1>that have invested interest in it UM that's even goes

0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:11.120
<v Speaker 1>beyond their investments. You know, I clearly I think game

0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.440
<v Speaker 1>Stop comes from people who were gamers, who shopped at

0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:17.400
<v Speaker 1>that store as a kid, AMC movie lovers, and then

0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:20.520
<v Speaker 1>cryptic just poking the bear which is known as traditional

0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:23.880
<v Speaker 1>Wall Street just say, absolutely, it's pretty remarkable how it

0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:26.560
<v Speaker 1>really caught a lot of traditional investors, you know or

0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:30.760
<v Speaker 1>big you know, institutional firms off. God. Absolutely, and then

0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:34.120
<v Speaker 1>you know this kind of this overarching sense that the

0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:37.320
<v Speaker 1>market was this plaything of the big money institutions and

0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:40.880
<v Speaker 1>hedge funds and kind of very much a rebellion of that.

0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.120
<v Speaker 1>And that's a theme that goes through both the you know,

0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:46.200
<v Speaker 1>the crypto boom. I think it is similar, you know,

0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:50.360
<v Speaker 1>people trying to sort of recreate a new financial system

0:14:50.440 --> 0:14:54.200
<v Speaker 1>outside of the traditional system UM and for some of

0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:57.040
<v Speaker 1>the meme stock traders trying to really knock out, uh,

0:14:57.080 --> 0:14:58.880
<v Speaker 1>some of the big players in it who were short

0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:02.760
<v Speaker 1>these stocks. So you use the term identity investing, what

0:15:02.800 --> 0:15:04.760
<v Speaker 1>does that mean? It kind of means, you know what

0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:07.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm talking about with these communities, that you you have

0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:11.400
<v Speaker 1>sort of an affinity to an investment um based on

0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:13.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, whether it be you're an old video game

0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:15.880
<v Speaker 1>player who shot the game Stop as a kid, or

0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:19.120
<v Speaker 1>or someone who just got a laugh out of dogecoin

0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:22.880
<v Speaker 1>and Sheba, you know, you know the knockoff of dogecoin.

0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:27.000
<v Speaker 1>Carol's laughing because knockoff of dogecoin, right, it's a joke

0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:30.160
<v Speaker 1>of a joke, right, right, and you know it's easy

0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:31.960
<v Speaker 1>to roll your eyes and laugh at it, but it

0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:35.480
<v Speaker 1>really happened. And I think it's you know, it's something

0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:38.240
<v Speaker 1>in a way. I feel like, you know, the horses

0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:40.800
<v Speaker 1>out of the barn now on this type of activity,

0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:43.240
<v Speaker 1>and you know, it's hard to believe we'll see another

0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:45.360
<v Speaker 1>year's wild, but I think that you know, you have

0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:47.760
<v Speaker 1>to sort of take this trend seriously. Well, let's talk

0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:49.480
<v Speaker 1>about that, because if the if the horses out of

0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:51.480
<v Speaker 1>the barn, and perhaps we won't see another year as

0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:54.160
<v Speaker 1>wild as we saw in one. For a handful of factors,

0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:58.680
<v Speaker 1>what do we see in two? Because commission free trading

0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:02.160
<v Speaker 1>unless something happens payment for order flow that's not going anywhere.

0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:05.160
<v Speaker 1>That's not that's not going anywhere. So there's certainly there

0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:07.960
<v Speaker 1>will always be the ingredients the recipe in place. I

0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:11.680
<v Speaker 1>think what will be different about this upcoming years? We

0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:15.600
<v Speaker 1>people had these swollen savings accounts. Um. You know, even

0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:17.960
<v Speaker 1>if you were unemployed and you collected unemployment, you were

0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:20.160
<v Speaker 1>getting more than a lot more than you would have

0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:21.880
<v Speaker 1>otherwise a lot of people getting more than what they

0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:24.720
<v Speaker 1>made at their jobs. So you know, it almost I

0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:26.560
<v Speaker 1>think for a lot of people felt like betting with

0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:29.280
<v Speaker 1>house money. Right. It didn't feel like you're really putting

0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:31.800
<v Speaker 1>your own savings at risk because this was sort of

0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:35.000
<v Speaker 1>surplus newfound cash. So I think that pile of money,

0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:38.920
<v Speaker 1>that excess savings is going to get drawn down in

0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:41.400
<v Speaker 1>a couple of ways, you know, either deflation of these

0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:44.320
<v Speaker 1>asset prices as one or just people spending it out. Well,

0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:46.360
<v Speaker 1>that's point I said to you earlier when we were

0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:50.200
<v Speaker 1>taping for our weekend show, this this story in there. Um,

0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:52.800
<v Speaker 1>I love your last line. You know, remember the reality

0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:55.440
<v Speaker 1>maybe virtual the money you're investing eight and it's it's

0:16:55.480 --> 0:16:57.320
<v Speaker 1>one thing when everything's going up and it can feel

0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:00.360
<v Speaker 1>like wow, I'm really onto something. But let's remember something

0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:04.240
<v Speaker 1>like cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, you know, these things are really volatile.

0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:06.880
<v Speaker 1>They are and you know, and you don't even really

0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:09.359
<v Speaker 1>have to tell crypto investor that they're glue. They have

0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:12.800
<v Speaker 1>their their quota and they understand it, and it's it's

0:17:12.840 --> 0:17:15.000
<v Speaker 1>part of the I think, appeal of it. If you

0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:18.040
<v Speaker 1>wake up on a Saturday morning and ethereum or bitcoin

0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:21.200
<v Speaker 1>is down, it's you know, all of a sudden you

0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:22.800
<v Speaker 1>have a chance to get it at a discount. But

0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:25.119
<v Speaker 1>you're right that, you know, if the tide you know,

0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:27.800
<v Speaker 1>to use the famous word buffet thing, if the tide

0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:31.520
<v Speaker 1>goes out permanently um, it certainly could be come as

0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:34.480
<v Speaker 1>a surprise to many investors. I do think a lot

0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:38.240
<v Speaker 1>of this is people's not necessarily their main nest eggs,

0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:41.320
<v Speaker 1>their retirement money. It's kind of, you know, a smaller

0:17:41.520 --> 0:17:43.359
<v Speaker 1>budget that they have set aside for you know, I

0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:46.840
<v Speaker 1>can talk talk about it like lottery ticket money. You know, what,

0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:49.119
<v Speaker 1>what's your budget for lottery tickets? And I think for

0:17:49.200 --> 0:17:52.159
<v Speaker 1>some people it's that granted, a bigger budget on lottery

0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:54.679
<v Speaker 1>tickets than you probably want, want, or should have, But

0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:57.480
<v Speaker 1>you say it's changed investing forever. So what's the lasting

0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:00.360
<v Speaker 1>part of this? I think it's these communities and this

0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:02.879
<v Speaker 1>this herd behavior. You know, I always think back to

0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:05.000
<v Speaker 1>the old investing clubs. You know, you get a bunch

0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:07.639
<v Speaker 1>of little ladies in a room together and have tea

0:18:07.840 --> 0:18:09.640
<v Speaker 1>and you all and they'd all invest the same way.

0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:13.520
<v Speaker 1>Peter right right, This is that times a gazillion, I think,

0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:15.280
<v Speaker 1>And I think that's what's here to stay. Is this

0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:20.000
<v Speaker 1>this herd tribal uh investing that we've seen. And you know,

0:18:20.800 --> 0:18:22.800
<v Speaker 1>you don't have to join a tribe permanently. You could

0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:25.040
<v Speaker 1>be in the dose coin tribe one day and then

0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:26.880
<v Speaker 1>go back to the games Stop tribe. And I think,

0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:28.399
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's gonna be a lot of sort of

0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:31.000
<v Speaker 1>chasing the next where the next crowd is going, okay

0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:32.720
<v Speaker 1>before we let you go just in forty seconds. N

0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:35.479
<v Speaker 1>f T s here to stay, I think absolutely, And

0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:38.000
<v Speaker 1>I think but not in the way we think of them.

0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:39.960
<v Speaker 1>I don't think it's just gonna be j PEG's. I

0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:43.440
<v Speaker 1>think they're there. There's a lot more potential and sophisticated

0:18:43.480 --> 0:18:46.240
<v Speaker 1>smart contracts as they call it um going forward, and

0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:48.320
<v Speaker 1>n f T s are are sort of the you know,

0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:52.840
<v Speaker 1>the poster child for that. It's not buying Milan's eyes. Well,

0:18:52.880 --> 0:18:55.359
<v Speaker 1>you think of these word ape yacht clubs. You know,

0:18:56.119 --> 0:18:57.840
<v Speaker 1>it's a it's a picture of a funny ape. But

0:18:57.880 --> 0:18:59.720
<v Speaker 1>there's more to it than that. You you get a

0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:03.040
<v Speaker 1>member ship in this online community. So if this metaverse

0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:06.600
<v Speaker 1>thing really takes off, um, I think there's gonna be

0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:09.520
<v Speaker 1>more to it than just the pictures are buying. Well,

0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:14.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, with Bloomberg's restrictions, I without it for good

0:19:14.200 --> 0:19:18.919
<v Speaker 1>or bad. That's a policy that's good all of us

0:19:18.960 --> 0:19:22.080
<v Speaker 1>from a lot of a lot of foolish moves. It's

0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:25.440
<v Speaker 1>great coverage in the magazine. Check it out the cover story.

0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:28.600
<v Speaker 1>There's moving, different moving parts to it, but a great story.

0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:31.080
<v Speaker 1>Mike Rere again, Senior editor, Bloomberg Markets in our interactive

0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:35.520
<v Speaker 1>broker's story. Uh that new issue on newstands, online at

0:19:35.840 --> 0:19:37.680
<v Speaker 1>business week dot com and of course always on the

0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:41.600
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg terminal. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:19:41.680 --> 0:19:46.119
<v Speaker 1>Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:49.159
<v Speaker 1>This is among I believe you're most right on the

0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:51.879
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg It is indeed, in fact, it is the number

0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:54.560
<v Speaker 1>one most read story in the past eight hours on

0:19:54.560 --> 0:19:57.000
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg. Doesn't seem like corporate Americas on a path

0:19:57.000 --> 0:19:59.960
<v Speaker 1>toward normalcy. A new wave of COVID uncertainty upending business

0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:02.159
<v Speaker 1>plans from Wall Street to Silicon Valley. We've seen a

0:20:02.160 --> 0:20:03.800
<v Speaker 1>plan out in real time. Especially, I feel like in

0:20:03.800 --> 0:20:07.720
<v Speaker 1>the lasts we have Jenny Serina's finance reporter for Bloomberg

0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:10.040
<v Speaker 1>new she's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.

0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:12.439
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I hope you're with us for a while,

0:20:12.480 --> 0:20:13.880
<v Speaker 1>and like we don't have to all go and work

0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:17.760
<v Speaker 1>different places because wherever. Well, look, we were joking and

0:20:17.760 --> 0:20:19.760
<v Speaker 1>not really even joking, but we were talking during the

0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:23.240
<v Speaker 1>break that this really feels like, you know, it feels

0:20:23.280 --> 0:20:26.280
<v Speaker 1>like yesterday, yesterday with the cancelation of the JP Morgan conference,

0:20:26.320 --> 0:20:28.879
<v Speaker 1>the health conference right that to me, it feels like

0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:30.919
<v Speaker 1>it's set off some sort of wave where we're just

0:20:30.960 --> 0:20:35.600
<v Speaker 1>seeing banks say and companies say, okay, work from home,

0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:38.359
<v Speaker 1>we're canceling holiday parties. Was that some sort of turning

0:20:38.400 --> 0:20:39.760
<v Speaker 1>point and give us bring us up to speed on

0:20:39.800 --> 0:20:42.720
<v Speaker 1>what's happened since then? Yeah, I think it definitely felt

0:20:42.760 --> 0:20:45.360
<v Speaker 1>like that was one of the many kind of cracks

0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:50.439
<v Speaker 1>in the industry's efforts to keep offices restocked through the holidays. Um.

0:20:50.480 --> 0:20:52.200
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, I think banks are in a different position

0:20:52.200 --> 0:20:54.000
<v Speaker 1>than a lot of other companies because they were pretty

0:20:54.000 --> 0:20:56.640
<v Speaker 1>aggressive and bringing folks back, So that means they've had

0:20:56.640 --> 0:20:59.120
<v Speaker 1>folks there these past few weeks. People came back from

0:20:59.119 --> 0:21:02.320
<v Speaker 1>the Thanksgiving holiday. Cases have shot up across the street,

0:21:02.600 --> 0:21:05.640
<v Speaker 1>and now everyone's pretty much saying, Okay, you guys can

0:21:05.640 --> 0:21:08.720
<v Speaker 1>work from home. Um, you know, stay safe, enjoy your holidays.

0:21:08.760 --> 0:21:11.199
<v Speaker 1>So that's kind of the state of plan banking. I

0:21:11.200 --> 0:21:13.480
<v Speaker 1>think Tech they haven't actually brought their people back yet,

0:21:13.520 --> 0:21:15.879
<v Speaker 1>so their big Dave is just once again delaying a

0:21:15.960 --> 0:21:18.280
<v Speaker 1>return to office. And I think we're seeing over there

0:21:18.280 --> 0:21:19.920
<v Speaker 1>a lot of those folks are just saying, you know what,

0:21:20.000 --> 0:21:22.680
<v Speaker 1>we're sick of setting a date just and definitely you're

0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:24.840
<v Speaker 1>working from home and we'll figure it out when things

0:21:25.440 --> 0:21:34.920
<v Speaker 1>It was summer January through the dates out the window. Yes. Yeah.

0:21:34.960 --> 0:21:37.080
<v Speaker 1>And then someone was saying it feels like groundhog Day,

0:21:37.080 --> 0:21:39.360
<v Speaker 1>and it definitely does. Um, it definitely feels like we're

0:21:39.400 --> 0:21:41.119
<v Speaker 1>just kind of going through the same motions over and

0:21:41.160 --> 0:21:43.359
<v Speaker 1>over again. But what's the psyche that's going on? I

0:21:43.359 --> 0:21:45.600
<v Speaker 1>think within the Wall Street community. And I do wonder

0:21:45.600 --> 0:21:48.359
<v Speaker 1>about the significance of Jamie Diamond coming out and doing something.

0:21:48.400 --> 0:21:51.800
<v Speaker 1>He really is looked too as a barometer in terms

0:21:51.880 --> 0:21:54.119
<v Speaker 1>of what can we do, what's okay to do? I

0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:57.280
<v Speaker 1>feel like I mean, and so Diamond has been probably

0:21:57.320 --> 0:21:59.520
<v Speaker 1>the most vocal about the importance of offices and how

0:21:59.600 --> 0:22:02.240
<v Speaker 1>much you it's those, um, you know, folks be back

0:22:02.280 --> 0:22:04.400
<v Speaker 1>and bankers on the road and people meeting with clients

0:22:04.440 --> 0:22:07.080
<v Speaker 1>and and so that was a big turning point. Um.

0:22:07.320 --> 0:22:10.320
<v Speaker 1>But I think honestly it's almost you know, he had

0:22:10.359 --> 0:22:12.199
<v Speaker 1>companies pulling out left and right, So I don't know

0:22:12.200 --> 0:22:15.040
<v Speaker 1>that he had that much of a choice in the end. Um.

0:22:15.080 --> 0:22:17.000
<v Speaker 1>But it's definitely a disappointment I think for all these

0:22:17.000 --> 0:22:19.560
<v Speaker 1>CEOs who just feel really strongly that FaceTime is the

0:22:19.600 --> 0:22:23.160
<v Speaker 1>way forward. UM. But I also think, you know, it's

0:22:23.400 --> 0:22:25.159
<v Speaker 1>it's a very odd discord because I think a lot

0:22:25.160 --> 0:22:27.360
<v Speaker 1>of folks are still doing kind of what they want

0:22:27.400 --> 0:22:29.000
<v Speaker 1>to in their normal lives. You know, people are going

0:22:29.000 --> 0:22:32.000
<v Speaker 1>on to dinners, um. Broadway is still happening, lots of

0:22:32.000 --> 0:22:35.280
<v Speaker 1>different cultural stuff, football stadiums are full, like the whole

0:22:35.359 --> 0:22:37.840
<v Speaker 1>nine yards, and then in the office you just have

0:22:37.920 --> 0:22:43.040
<v Speaker 1>this very different, um, you know, approach. It's interesting the

0:22:43.040 --> 0:22:45.280
<v Speaker 1>conversations we have in and around, certainly the news room

0:22:45.320 --> 0:22:47.760
<v Speaker 1>and I know certainly in my personal life, of of

0:22:47.840 --> 0:22:50.480
<v Speaker 1>people saying I keep hearing people are like, I'm tired

0:22:50.520 --> 0:22:53.440
<v Speaker 1>of commuting. I'm happy to work, I will do whatever

0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:56.280
<v Speaker 1>I need to, but I'm tired. Like the pandemic showed me,

0:22:56.560 --> 0:22:58.560
<v Speaker 1>I could work at a lot of stuff done still

0:22:58.640 --> 0:23:01.040
<v Speaker 1>do everything by I had a little bit more balanced.

0:23:01.080 --> 0:23:03.280
<v Speaker 1>And I do wonder if whether it's the Wall Street

0:23:03.280 --> 0:23:05.639
<v Speaker 1>community or CEO's overall, are just kind of missing a

0:23:05.720 --> 0:23:08.320
<v Speaker 1>really big message that's going on and maybe not want

0:23:08.359 --> 0:23:10.879
<v Speaker 1>to be, especially in a tight labor force. Yeah. I

0:23:10.880 --> 0:23:12.720
<v Speaker 1>think that's definitely right, and I think, you know, the

0:23:12.720 --> 0:23:15.679
<v Speaker 1>tech people probably feel it a little bit more acutely,

0:23:15.760 --> 0:23:18.000
<v Speaker 1>just because those folks, I mean so many engineers and

0:23:18.080 --> 0:23:20.920
<v Speaker 1>data scientists really can do it all from home, right. UM.

0:23:20.960 --> 0:23:22.840
<v Speaker 1>I think in Wall Street a lot of times you

0:23:22.880 --> 0:23:25.159
<v Speaker 1>think about those like the investment bankers, the folks that

0:23:25.200 --> 0:23:27.840
<v Speaker 1>get on the plane and pitch CEOs on big deals,

0:23:27.880 --> 0:23:30.280
<v Speaker 1>and it's a very um I mean, it's a very

0:23:30.280 --> 0:23:33.119
<v Speaker 1>FaceTime friendly industry, and so I think it's just an

0:23:33.160 --> 0:23:36.160
<v Speaker 1>adjustment period and we'll see if you know, Wall Street

0:23:36.200 --> 0:23:38.880
<v Speaker 1>comes around to the UH the new way of working,

0:23:38.960 --> 0:23:40.880
<v Speaker 1>or if Wall Street kind of forces its way forward

0:23:40.920 --> 0:23:43.240
<v Speaker 1>and says we're tired of you resisting. You need to listen.

0:23:43.320 --> 0:23:45.400
<v Speaker 1>We're talking about Wall Street, We're talking about the big banks.

0:23:45.400 --> 0:23:46.960
<v Speaker 1>But as you write in your peace, Jenny, this goes

0:23:47.000 --> 0:23:48.440
<v Speaker 1>beyond the big banks. I mean, think about what the

0:23:48.480 --> 0:23:50.840
<v Speaker 1>headlines we've seen from colleges where a high proportion of

0:23:50.880 --> 0:23:53.520
<v Speaker 1>students are vaccinated. You did right that Hans Vestberg, the

0:23:53.520 --> 0:23:56.560
<v Speaker 1>CEO of Verizon, just closed yesterday that he tested positive

0:23:56.600 --> 0:23:59.120
<v Speaker 1>recently for the virus. He's been quarantine at home with

0:23:59.160 --> 0:24:02.120
<v Speaker 1>mild symptoms. What does it all mean post holidays for

0:24:02.480 --> 0:24:04.120
<v Speaker 1>especially when it comes to the banks, Do they get

0:24:04.160 --> 0:24:07.400
<v Speaker 1>people back there? I think, I mean, if we learned

0:24:07.400 --> 0:24:10.840
<v Speaker 1>anything from post Thanksgiving holiday, as soon as folks got

0:24:10.840 --> 0:24:13.080
<v Speaker 1>back a few weeks in, we've seen a real rising

0:24:13.119 --> 0:24:15.560
<v Speaker 1>cases across the street, and so I think that is

0:24:15.560 --> 0:24:17.720
<v Speaker 1>going to probably stay with these banks for a while.

0:24:17.760 --> 0:24:20.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean, nobody likes to do the contact tracing and

0:24:20.240 --> 0:24:23.199
<v Speaker 1>inform their employee. It scares people. So I think, you know,

0:24:23.240 --> 0:24:25.520
<v Speaker 1>I think they'll probably take it slow in January, um

0:24:25.920 --> 0:24:28.040
<v Speaker 1>and we'll probably start to heal feel that same kind

0:24:28.080 --> 0:24:30.200
<v Speaker 1>of drumbeat, like let's get back in, let's get back

0:24:30.200 --> 0:24:32.639
<v Speaker 1>to work, you know, come February or maybe later in

0:24:32.680 --> 0:24:35.800
<v Speaker 1>the month in January. But I think for now everything

0:24:35.880 --> 0:24:37.720
<v Speaker 1>is pretty much on its back foot and kind of

0:24:37.760 --> 0:24:40.520
<v Speaker 1>realizing the situation that we're in and having said that,

0:24:40.560 --> 0:24:42.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, we do know how this plays out. We

0:24:42.600 --> 0:24:44.760
<v Speaker 1>know what happens in cases spike, and so we also

0:24:44.800 --> 0:24:46.879
<v Speaker 1>know how to quickly kind of clamp down on it.

0:24:46.920 --> 0:24:49.240
<v Speaker 1>And it is I feel like a little bit refreshing

0:24:49.280 --> 0:24:51.600
<v Speaker 1>for these CEOs to say, Okay, let's just let's just

0:24:51.600 --> 0:24:53.160
<v Speaker 1>shut it down. We know what to do here. Yeah.

0:24:53.280 --> 0:24:55.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think that it helps that this time

0:24:55.119 --> 0:24:57.920
<v Speaker 1>they know that there's a playbook that they know people

0:24:57.960 --> 0:25:00.240
<v Speaker 1>can do it. It's not like March and that sense

0:25:00.280 --> 0:25:02.359
<v Speaker 1>where they're kind of sending folks often to the ether

0:25:02.640 --> 0:25:04.359
<v Speaker 1>with no idea what was going to happen. You know,

0:25:04.680 --> 0:25:07.400
<v Speaker 1>everyone's pretty adapted at moving to the whole work from

0:25:07.400 --> 0:25:09.800
<v Speaker 1>home set up Brown hog Day all over again, or

0:25:09.880 --> 0:25:12.840
<v Speaker 1>Deja Vu all over again a little bit of that. Um, Jenny,

0:25:12.880 --> 0:25:14.480
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. And I've been really busy some

0:25:14.600 --> 0:25:17.320
<v Speaker 1>great reporting all over the place from you when it

0:25:17.320 --> 0:25:19.800
<v Speaker 1>comes to all things Wall Street. Jenny Serene, Finance reporter

0:25:19.800 --> 0:25:22.320
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News in our Interactive Broker studio. But this

0:25:22.400 --> 0:25:25.600
<v Speaker 1>really does feel like her story, and just the headline

0:25:25.640 --> 0:25:29.359
<v Speaker 1>after headline of shutdowns rolling back is our big story

0:25:29.560 --> 0:25:32.280
<v Speaker 1>it is. I'm curious to see what happens after the holidays.

0:25:32.520 --> 0:25:34.480
<v Speaker 1>As I mentioned, the anecdotal data that I see with

0:25:34.520 --> 0:25:36.879
<v Speaker 1>people just lined up outside of urgent care facilities to

0:25:36.920 --> 0:25:39.000
<v Speaker 1>get tested. Right now, we've all seen it if you

0:25:39.000 --> 0:25:40.600
<v Speaker 1>live in New York City. To what extent are those

0:25:40.600 --> 0:25:42.840
<v Speaker 1>people being tested so they can travel and be with

0:25:42.880 --> 0:25:45.200
<v Speaker 1>family during the holidays or are they feeling symptoms? We

0:25:45.200 --> 0:25:46.679
<v Speaker 1>don't know. We do know that the curve though here

0:25:46.680 --> 0:25:49.520
<v Speaker 1>in New York City is rising. Um and Health Commissioner

0:25:49.560 --> 0:25:51.280
<v Speaker 1>is not happy about it. And what happens with schools

0:25:51.280 --> 0:25:53.840
<v Speaker 1>and especially kids that are in grade school, middle school,

0:25:54.080 --> 0:26:00.159
<v Speaker 1>younger if they start to shut down the impact of that. Now,

0:26:00.240 --> 0:26:02.280
<v Speaker 1>but you let me drive, Oh no, no, no, no,

0:26:02.520 --> 0:26:11.280
<v Speaker 1>this is all right, Please, I'll go. I want to drive.

0:26:12.160 --> 0:26:18.000
<v Speaker 1>It's a good question. Good drive. This is the Drive

0:26:18.080 --> 0:26:24.320
<v Speaker 1>to the Globe on Bluebird Radio. Alright, just got about

0:26:24.359 --> 0:26:27.960
<v Speaker 1>ten minutes left into today's trading session. We are getting

0:26:27.960 --> 0:26:30.680
<v Speaker 1>ready to wrap up the Thursday trade. A very different

0:26:30.720 --> 0:26:33.840
<v Speaker 1>tone from what we saw posts that fed decision yesterday.

0:26:33.840 --> 0:26:35.840
<v Speaker 1>We are bouncing off our loads of the session, but

0:26:36.600 --> 0:26:38.720
<v Speaker 1>big tech tech in particular. If I take a look

0:26:38.720 --> 0:26:40.960
<v Speaker 1>at the NASAC, it is down about two point six percent,

0:26:41.080 --> 0:26:44.520
<v Speaker 1>down three hundred ninety three points in today's session. So

0:26:44.560 --> 0:26:46.879
<v Speaker 1>if you're looking for where investors are kind of running

0:26:46.920 --> 0:26:49.120
<v Speaker 1>for the exit, it is certainly among those big tech.

0:26:49.280 --> 0:26:51.720
<v Speaker 1>Having said that big tech, still, if you want to

0:26:51.720 --> 0:26:54.960
<v Speaker 1>look at out performance for the year one, it's big tech. Yeah,

0:26:54.960 --> 0:26:56.520
<v Speaker 1>it really is. But if you look at the NASTAC

0:26:56.560 --> 0:26:59.760
<v Speaker 1>on Carol thirty, only thirty of the one stocks in

0:26:59.760 --> 0:27:02.160
<v Speaker 1>the n S actually in the green. Let's talk about

0:27:02.160 --> 0:27:05.080
<v Speaker 1>this in more with Gary Black, portfolio manager at Future

0:27:05.119 --> 0:27:07.080
<v Speaker 1>Fund Active E TF. He joins us on the phone

0:27:07.080 --> 0:27:11.040
<v Speaker 1>from Chicago. Gary, how are you great? Thanks for having

0:27:11.080 --> 0:27:12.879
<v Speaker 1>me join you. Well, let's talk a little bit about

0:27:12.920 --> 0:27:15.760
<v Speaker 1>about tech and big tech today. Um, what was the

0:27:15.800 --> 0:27:18.120
<v Speaker 1>big change between yesterday and today when we saw tech

0:27:18.240 --> 0:27:20.320
<v Speaker 1>rally after we heard from Fed church er own Powell

0:27:20.720 --> 0:27:24.240
<v Speaker 1>versus today, what changed. Well, I think you're seeing a

0:27:24.240 --> 0:27:27.639
<v Speaker 1>little bit that the market is suddenly worrying about a

0:27:27.680 --> 0:27:32.320
<v Speaker 1>Fed policy mistake because you know, you see, obviously you heard,

0:27:32.400 --> 0:27:34.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, the tapering will be accelerated. People are starting

0:27:34.800 --> 0:27:37.000
<v Speaker 1>to think, okay, that there's gonna be three interest rate

0:27:37.080 --> 0:27:40.080
<v Speaker 1>hikes next year. Um. But then when you look at

0:27:40.080 --> 0:27:43.400
<v Speaker 1>the tenure treasury, you know, um tenure treasury is continuing

0:27:43.440 --> 0:27:45.439
<v Speaker 1>to follow the yield, so you got the yield down

0:27:45.480 --> 0:27:48.680
<v Speaker 1>to one four three. So while the Fed is saying, look,

0:27:48.720 --> 0:27:50.680
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna take three hikes next year, at least the

0:27:50.720 --> 0:27:52.880
<v Speaker 1>dot plot implies are gonna take three hikes next year,

0:27:53.560 --> 0:27:56.719
<v Speaker 1>three hikes in three And you know that, as they

0:27:56.720 --> 0:27:58.440
<v Speaker 1>call it, the so called term will, it'll be about

0:27:58.440 --> 0:28:01.200
<v Speaker 1>too one. The tenure isn't moving up the ten years

0:28:01.200 --> 0:28:03.560
<v Speaker 1>at one fourth thrace. So the bond market is I guess,

0:28:04.119 --> 0:28:06.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, a little skeptical of that. So then you

0:28:06.359 --> 0:28:09.520
<v Speaker 1>think about technology. Usually when rates go down, um, you know,

0:28:09.640 --> 0:28:14.000
<v Speaker 1>longer duration assets such as technology, technology get hurt. But

0:28:14.080 --> 0:28:16.200
<v Speaker 1>I don't think it's that so much as people are saying, well,

0:28:16.240 --> 0:28:19.560
<v Speaker 1>maybe there's a mistake on the horizon, they're um, you

0:28:19.600 --> 0:28:23.680
<v Speaker 1>know forward, Well, if you start moving rates up, let's

0:28:23.680 --> 0:28:25.880
<v Speaker 1>suppose that you know, the tapering is not a big deal.

0:28:25.920 --> 0:28:28.320
<v Speaker 1>That's just qui qui is going to continue it. You know,

0:28:28.359 --> 0:28:30.720
<v Speaker 1>it'll be sixty billion next month and thirty billion the

0:28:30.720 --> 0:28:33.639
<v Speaker 1>following month and it will disappear March. So it's just

0:28:33.800 --> 0:28:36.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, no more funds being added to the system,

0:28:36.080 --> 0:28:39.120
<v Speaker 1>and that's q E. And you're seeing the ECB announced

0:28:39.120 --> 0:28:42.640
<v Speaker 1>the same thing that they're tapering wind in March. But

0:28:43.240 --> 0:28:45.360
<v Speaker 1>if rates start moving up, which is what you saw

0:28:45.440 --> 0:28:48.280
<v Speaker 1>last night, the Bank of England surprisingly raised it's it's

0:28:48.640 --> 0:28:51.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, minor amount fifteen BIPs to forty BIPs. If

0:28:51.840 --> 0:28:54.200
<v Speaker 1>you start seeing raids move up three times next year,

0:28:54.600 --> 0:28:56.520
<v Speaker 1>you know there's always a risk that the FED is

0:28:56.600 --> 0:29:00.640
<v Speaker 1>tightening while demand um is starting to fall. And you know,

0:29:00.640 --> 0:29:03.160
<v Speaker 1>the big wild card here is COVID and if COVID

0:29:03.400 --> 0:29:06.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, continues to spread and and and you know

0:29:06.920 --> 0:29:10.800
<v Speaker 1>close and this is a big worry, um cancelations of shows,

0:29:10.920 --> 0:29:14.640
<v Speaker 1>restaurant closings, UM, school closings, and then you're going to

0:29:14.680 --> 0:29:16.440
<v Speaker 1>see a hit to GDP, which is what you saw

0:29:16.520 --> 0:29:19.920
<v Speaker 1>back last March, you know, two thousand twenty when COVID hits,

0:29:19.920 --> 0:29:22.480
<v Speaker 1>So you could have the same time as growth slowing dramatically,

0:29:22.880 --> 0:29:25.440
<v Speaker 1>you could have the FED tightening. Now. I don't worry

0:29:25.440 --> 0:29:27.320
<v Speaker 1>too much about that because I think the Fed is smart.

0:29:27.400 --> 0:29:29.480
<v Speaker 1>J Pal you know, in the past, has has talked

0:29:29.520 --> 0:29:32.120
<v Speaker 1>about transitory inflation, and we can get in you know,

0:29:32.120 --> 0:29:33.960
<v Speaker 1>whether inflation is transit or not. You have to define

0:29:34.000 --> 0:29:36.560
<v Speaker 1>what's transitory. But I do believe that if you see

0:29:36.600 --> 0:29:40.600
<v Speaker 1>COVID continue to um, you know, be more rampant, and

0:29:40.640 --> 0:29:43.360
<v Speaker 1>if you see economic roaths start to slow, um, they'll

0:29:43.400 --> 0:29:45.720
<v Speaker 1>they'll quickly reverse course if they have to. It's great,

0:29:46.080 --> 0:29:47.720
<v Speaker 1>that's what you're seeing. To the markets afraid of this

0:29:48.040 --> 0:29:50.880
<v Speaker 1>our New Economy Daily on newsletter that came out this morning,

0:29:50.920 --> 0:29:53.240
<v Speaker 1>and they set a big threat the Lady economist Rudiger

0:29:53.320 --> 0:29:56.080
<v Speaker 1>jorn Bush once saying that the most that most US

0:29:56.120 --> 0:29:58.400
<v Speaker 1>expansions are murdered by the Federal Reserve. I mean it's

0:29:58.400 --> 0:30:01.200
<v Speaker 1>a policy misstep. Having said that, you've got a fun

0:30:01.280 --> 0:30:04.400
<v Speaker 1>you've got the future fun active ETF. I think it's

0:30:04.400 --> 0:30:07.440
<v Speaker 1>off about seven percent since its inception. I guess it

0:30:07.480 --> 0:30:10.440
<v Speaker 1>began trading late August August this year. Now as that

0:30:10.480 --> 0:30:12.680
<v Speaker 1>one hundred up about four percent in the same time frame,

0:30:13.000 --> 0:30:16.280
<v Speaker 1>you are still though deciding whether to add positions or

0:30:16.280 --> 0:30:19.200
<v Speaker 1>sell positions. What have you done in this environment? What

0:30:19.360 --> 0:30:21.760
<v Speaker 1>changes have you made to that portfolio? And your top

0:30:21.800 --> 0:30:25.240
<v Speaker 1>holdings include names like Tesla, Alphabet tenst and Harley Davidson

0:30:26.360 --> 0:30:29.520
<v Speaker 1>correct and so you know the stuff that is getting hurt.

0:30:30.120 --> 0:30:32.600
<v Speaker 1>Uh and as market it takes something like Tesla. You know,

0:30:32.640 --> 0:30:36.160
<v Speaker 1>it's it's what we call longer duration equity. You know,

0:30:36.240 --> 0:30:38.560
<v Speaker 1>most of the cash flows come towards the end. You know,

0:30:38.560 --> 0:30:41.600
<v Speaker 1>they make money, but you know as the growth accelerates

0:30:41.680 --> 0:30:43.400
<v Speaker 1>over the next three or four years, where they really

0:30:43.400 --> 0:30:46.000
<v Speaker 1>start making my where the value is is more in

0:30:46.080 --> 0:30:49.880
<v Speaker 1>the you know, five or six years out um. And

0:30:49.960 --> 0:30:53.400
<v Speaker 1>so those longer duration assets as people worry about inflation,

0:30:53.880 --> 0:30:56.640
<v Speaker 1>as interest rates rise and then they were talking about

0:30:56.680 --> 0:30:59.680
<v Speaker 1>the ten year treasury. If the tenure treasury starts rising,

0:30:59.720 --> 0:31:02.520
<v Speaker 1>you're to see the longer duration assets get hurt. And

0:31:02.560 --> 0:31:04.880
<v Speaker 1>so you know, names like a Tesla are not going

0:31:04.880 --> 0:31:07.040
<v Speaker 1>to do well in theory in that environment. So do

0:31:07.040 --> 0:31:11.160
<v Speaker 1>you sell? Do you buy into that more? It's down

0:31:12.200 --> 0:31:15.520
<v Speaker 1>Since early November, you've been buying yes. And the reason

0:31:15.600 --> 0:31:18.200
<v Speaker 1>is because there's nothing, no change of fundamentals. When you

0:31:18.200 --> 0:31:21.160
<v Speaker 1>look at earnings revisions, which is you know it's the

0:31:21.320 --> 0:31:25.160
<v Speaker 1>it's the Cell Sides estimates of volumes and earnings forward,

0:31:25.200 --> 0:31:27.920
<v Speaker 1>they've actually gone up. The only reason Tesla is down

0:31:27.920 --> 0:31:31.600
<v Speaker 1>twenty only reason is because Elon Musk. Because you know,

0:31:31.680 --> 0:31:34.360
<v Speaker 1>he's in a very convoluted way. He's been selling shares

0:31:34.960 --> 0:31:37.520
<v Speaker 1>and when you know, you when when normally want a

0:31:37.600 --> 0:31:39.760
<v Speaker 1>CEO cells, let's call it two percent of the the flow,

0:31:39.800 --> 0:31:41.720
<v Speaker 1>which is what he wants selling. You know, they would

0:31:41.720 --> 0:31:43.800
<v Speaker 1>just call up Goldmen or Morgan Stanley and they would say,

0:31:44.000 --> 0:31:45.760
<v Speaker 1>do a secondary and let's get it done. It would

0:31:45.760 --> 0:31:48.000
<v Speaker 1>be a three or four percent haircut. Here he's been

0:31:48.040 --> 0:31:50.920
<v Speaker 1>selling shares now for six weeks. And you know, if

0:31:50.920 --> 0:31:54.000
<v Speaker 1>you're a long only portfolio manager or if you you

0:31:54.040 --> 0:31:56.240
<v Speaker 1>know you want to add to the position, you're gonna

0:31:56.280 --> 0:31:58.800
<v Speaker 1>wait until after the selling is done to do that.

0:31:58.880 --> 0:32:01.600
<v Speaker 1>So this is a very different situation. And I think,

0:32:01.640 --> 0:32:03.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, like something like Google, which is not down

0:32:03.880 --> 0:32:06.800
<v Speaker 1>that much. Google is you know, very cheap stock relative

0:32:06.880 --> 0:32:09.280
<v Speaker 1>to its growth. Um, you know it's going to do

0:32:09.320 --> 0:32:11.240
<v Speaker 1>fine in its firement. But but Tesla will do fine

0:32:11.280 --> 0:32:14.760
<v Speaker 1>once Elon stops selling. Okay, let's go from from teslata Google.

0:32:14.760 --> 0:32:19.800
<v Speaker 1>What you just mentioned six so far this year, it's

0:32:19.800 --> 0:32:22.600
<v Speaker 1>been an incredible run. Um are you adding to your

0:32:22.600 --> 0:32:24.600
<v Speaker 1>position right now? And you still you said it's actually

0:32:24.640 --> 0:32:27.280
<v Speaker 1>still a good value. How do you see it? We've

0:32:27.280 --> 0:32:29.840
<v Speaker 1>we've added to Google. It's about nine percent of the portfolio.

0:32:29.920 --> 0:32:33.160
<v Speaker 1>Test is about ten UM. You know, YouTube is on fire.

0:32:33.240 --> 0:32:36.320
<v Speaker 1>YouTube is about twelve percent of the revenue ad AD

0:32:36.520 --> 0:32:40.160
<v Speaker 1>revenue we have UM next few years growing about a

0:32:40.240 --> 0:32:43.200
<v Speaker 1>year for YouTube. You know, their basic search business is

0:32:43.200 --> 0:32:46.719
<v Speaker 1>about sixty of the business UM. That's still even though

0:32:46.720 --> 0:32:49.080
<v Speaker 1>it's a cash it's growing in about fifteen percent a year.

0:32:49.480 --> 0:32:51.960
<v Speaker 1>And it fits with one of the big measured friends.

0:32:52.000 --> 0:32:53.920
<v Speaker 1>And we can talk about our fund the way it works,

0:32:53.920 --> 0:32:56.400
<v Speaker 1>but we try to exploit about ten mega friends that

0:32:56.400 --> 0:32:59.600
<v Speaker 1>we see out changing the world. And the social media

0:32:59.600 --> 0:33:02.760
<v Speaker 1>replaced in traditional media is one of those trends. UM

0:33:02.880 --> 0:33:08.520
<v Speaker 1>search spending about fift The cloud is another business. It's

0:33:08.560 --> 0:33:10.480
<v Speaker 1>a little bit less than ten percent of the revenue

0:33:10.840 --> 0:33:14.240
<v Speaker 1>that's growing the year. And the other thing about Google

0:33:14.320 --> 0:33:17.080
<v Speaker 1>is it's gonna be if if the metaverse actually ever

0:33:17.800 --> 0:33:19.920
<v Speaker 1>you know it takes hold, it will be a big

0:33:19.960 --> 0:33:23.920
<v Speaker 1>beneficiary of the metaverse. So um, you get all that

0:33:24.080 --> 0:33:27.320
<v Speaker 1>for about twenty six times twenty two earnings. That's very cheap.

0:33:27.920 --> 0:33:31.600
<v Speaker 1>Um the average called Russell all cap coats stock do

0:33:31.600 --> 0:33:34.080
<v Speaker 1>we look at trades about thirty eight times, so it's cheaper.

0:33:34.280 --> 0:33:37.120
<v Speaker 1>But yet it's growing its revenue seventeen eighteen percent a year.

0:33:37.120 --> 0:33:40.480
<v Speaker 1>It's growing it's earnings here, so from a like price

0:33:40.520 --> 0:33:42.880
<v Speaker 1>earnings to growth basis, it's a very cheap stock the

0:33:42.880 --> 0:33:44.640
<v Speaker 1>way we look at it. All right, well, listen, great

0:33:44.640 --> 0:33:46.280
<v Speaker 1>to spend some time with you, Gary. Thank you so

0:33:46.360 --> 0:33:49.080
<v Speaker 1>much of a good and safe holiday season. Gary Black,

0:33:49.120 --> 0:33:52.400
<v Speaker 1>He's portfolio manager of the Future Fun Active e TF,

0:33:52.720 --> 0:33:56.400
<v Speaker 1>joining us on the phone from Chicago. Thanks for listening

0:33:56.440 --> 0:33:59.840
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:34:00.080 --> 0:34:02.120
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0:34:02.160 --> 0:34:04.760
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0:34:04.880 --> 0:34:07.640
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