1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host, JJ Zacher Retha, 2 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:14,240 Speaker 1: JJ Zacher reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen 3 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 1: in this episode eleven six of the Late Round Fantasy 4 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: Football Podcast. 5 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:20,759 Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in. 6 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: Before we get into the mailbag questions this week, I 7 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:25,279 Speaker 1: want to remind you to check out the Late Round 8 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: Draft Guide. It's filled with game theory, talk, ways the spot, 9 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: breakouts and busts, draft strategy for twenty twenty six players 10 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:35,240 Speaker 1: at Target Players do avoid in so much more. It'll 11 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:37,520 Speaker 1: be out on July tenth, but you can pre order 12 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 1: now at a discount. Just check it all out over 13 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 1: on lateround dot com. The first question this week is 14 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: from Chris via the Late Round Members Hub. It says, Hey, JJ, 15 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: the news site looks awesome. 16 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:51,600 Speaker 2: Thanks. 17 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: My question is why is Tyler schuck Ring significantly higher 18 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 1: and redraft superflex ranks than Dynasty. 19 00:00:59,000 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 2: I know he's. 20 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 1: Older than your typical second year player, but that still 21 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 1: feels counterintuitive to me. 22 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 2: Thank you. 23 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 1: So first off, I'll say what I've said before on 24 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:10,039 Speaker 1: this show about superflex season long rankings and note that 25 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 1: I really don't like them at all. I don't think 26 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: people should blindly draft off of superflex rankings, because every 27 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,839 Speaker 1: redraft superflex league is going to have a totally different 28 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:24,680 Speaker 1: economy and how they value quarterbacks. With Dynasty, at least 29 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: there's a market component that you're playing into. We can 30 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 1: look at sites like Keep Trade Cut to see what 31 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 1: the general market is for a quarterback with season long 32 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 1: superflex leagues. That really doesn't matter more than anything else. 33 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: In those drafts and those season long superflex drafts, you 34 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: need to be reactive to what's going on in that 35 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 1: quarterback position. So if you're looking at my super Flex 36 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 1: season long rankings and comparing them one to one with 37 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 1: Dynasty ones, I don't think that's a smart idea just 38 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 1: for those reasons alone. But people consistently ask to be 39 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: for season long superflex rankings. That's why I provide them, 40 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 1: and I do my best to properly value quarterbacks, even 41 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: though I don't think there's one. 42 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 2: Single way to value them. 43 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: But look, I have Tyler Shuck as QB fifteen right 44 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: now in season long. 45 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 2: I have him around QB nineteen in Dynasty. 46 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: Now, I could argue him a little bit higher in Dynasty, 47 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:16,800 Speaker 1: but that's technically where my rankings have him right now. 48 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 1: This has come up countless times in the show in 49 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 1: the past with a number of different young players. But 50 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 1: I don't automatically have a young player ranked higher in 51 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: Dynasty versus Redraft because the cost to acquire that player 52 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: is completely different in those two formats. Like right now, 53 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: with Tyler Shuck, I think we'd all agree that he's 54 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 1: not locked in as a starter for the next four, five, six, 55 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: seven years. We're not quite there yet. I'm optimistic. I 56 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 1: actually think he was better than cam Ward last year 57 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,359 Speaker 1: as a rookie, but we're still talking about an older 58 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 1: prospect who went outside the first round. He's got the 59 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 1: system around him, he could put up some really great 60 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,519 Speaker 1: fantasy numbers, but it's no guarantee that he's the starter 61 00:02:56,680 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: beyond this season. In redraft, that doesn't really matter. I 62 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 1: don't care about what happens in twenty twenty seven with 63 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 1: Tyler Shuck, so I don't have to play the downside 64 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 1: game or worry about the downside at all. The downside 65 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 1: for Tyler Shuck literally doesn't matter. When we're specifically looking 66 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: at seventeen games in twenty twenty six, technically sixteen in 67 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 1: a fantasy season, and I'm talking about career long downside, 68 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: so that changes where I'm gonna rank a player because 69 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 1: I'm trying to recognize the range of outcomes here. I 70 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 1: recognize that Shuck could be really good, but it can 71 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 1: also go south, and that balances out into his Dynasty ranking. 72 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 1: But I don't care nearly as much if it goes 73 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 1: south and season long, because there are more ways to 74 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: make up for that mistake. Even in a superflex format. 75 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: Season long leagues are shallower, there's more on the waiver wire, 76 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 1: and again we're not worried long term here. Shuck is 77 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: probably gonna be a decent fantasy asset even if he 78 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 1: doesn't really hit as a real life passer, because he 79 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 1: has volume. There's a good environment there and there's rushing potential. 80 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 1: It's like when Justin Fields was starting. I'm not saying 81 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 1: that Tyler Shuck is Justin Fields, but hear me out. 82 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: I was never ultra high on Fields in Dynasty because 83 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: the passing numbers were always questionable, which means there was 84 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 1: always a risk that he. 85 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 2: Could lose his job in redraft. 86 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: Though as long as he was starting, he was generally 87 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: giving you good fantasy numbers. He was giving you a 88 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 1: good floor ceiling combo. I didn't really care about what 89 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 1: would happen with justin fields beyond that given year. Malik 90 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 1: Willis is in a very similar boat right now too. 91 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 1: We genuinely have no idea how well Malik Willis is 92 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:36,840 Speaker 1: going to perform as a starter. But there's zero down 93 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 1: in my mind that his Dynasty value is a lot 94 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 1: more volatile right now than his redraft value. His redraft 95 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 1: value in single quarterback league's just a late round pick. 96 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: Even in super flex leagues, It's not that bad from 97 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 1: a season long perspective. If it doesn't work out, you 98 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 1: can just dump them in a single quarterback league. In 99 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 1: a super flex league, if you're really worried about the floor, 100 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: you can platoon him, get a third quarterback, get like 101 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 1: an Aaron type in Dynasty super Flex. If you look 102 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: at keep trade cut, you have to give up a 103 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 1: player like Christian Watson to get Malik Willis. That's not 104 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:12,719 Speaker 1: insignificant and it's a long term deal. I remember the 105 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,919 Speaker 1: same conversation on this show about Gabe Davis. Back in 106 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 1: the day, I had Gabe Davis ranked way higher in 107 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 1: redraft that I did in Dynasty. After he came off 108 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 1: that crazy playoff performance. After a second year in redraft, 109 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:28,840 Speaker 1: he was going in like rounds four through sixth that year. 110 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:31,920 Speaker 1: I wasn't high or low on him, but I saw 111 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 1: a scenario where the ceiling was actually there. But like, 112 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:37,479 Speaker 1: a fourth to sixth round pick in redraft is not 113 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: the most significant investment. 114 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 2: In the world. 115 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,600 Speaker 1: You can easily win a league championship if your fifth 116 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:45,840 Speaker 1: round pick doesn't work out. The waiver wire in a 117 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 1: redraft league is a lot more fruitful. But the Dynasty 118 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,920 Speaker 1: community was treating Gabe Davis like a breakout was gonna happen. 119 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:56,559 Speaker 1: I couldn't get there because there was a very scary floor, 120 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 1: which is what we ended up seeing. Basically, all this 121 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 1: comes down to this timeframe that we're analyzing in these 122 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 1: different formats. I'll be far more aggressive in redraft because 123 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: it's an easier format to fix your mistakes in, and 124 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:13,359 Speaker 1: there are fewer consequences for being overly aggressive, especially if 125 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 1: you're talking about late round picks and Dynasty. Being reckless 126 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:20,479 Speaker 1: with your evaluations can lead you down a scary path 127 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: for years to come, so you have to weigh the 128 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 1: downside risk more. Of course, there's upside too, and I'm 129 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,039 Speaker 1: trying to weigh that as well. But the downside to 130 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,919 Speaker 1: upside calculation is just different in dynasty than it is 131 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:35,720 Speaker 1: in season long. And that's why Tyler Schuck is ranked 132 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 1: slightly lower in dynasty than he is in redraft for 133 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 1: me right now, this last questions from billod o' ryan 134 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 1: on Bluesky, It says, for redraft, can you talk about 135 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: exposure rates? I do ten leagues a year. My worst 136 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 1: year was when I had too many certain players. Is 137 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: there are a rough percentage you don't want to surpass 138 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 1: based on their average draft position? Last year, I didn't 139 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: allow myself to go above fifty percent and did well. 140 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 1: Is it more important early rounds than late? 141 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:06,600 Speaker 2: Well? I first make sure I wasn't crediting my. 142 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: Success in fantasy football to simple exposure rates. I'm sure 143 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 1: if you had ninety percent Jackson Smith and Jigball last year, 144 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: you would have done very very well even if you 145 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 1: were at ninety percent because he hit in a big way. 146 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: But there's no right or wrong answer to this, because 147 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 1: it comes down to how you generally want to manage 148 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 1: your teams and how much risk you want to take on. 149 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: If you're risk averse, then you'll want lower exposure. If 150 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 1: you don't care, then have at it. The one thing 151 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: I'll say, though, is that you'll want to mostly diversify 152 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 1: your early round selections, especially rounds one to three, where 153 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: we see by far the highest hit rates. Messing those 154 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 1: up can really hurt your fantasy team. 155 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 2: And if you get the. 156 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 1: Same player over and over again from that range and 157 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: then he doesn't work out or if he gets hurt, 158 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 1: you're screwed. So I generally won't have a player in 159 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 1: that area of the draft over like twenty five percent 160 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: or so, if I were to give you a rough estimate, 161 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:01,239 Speaker 1: But beyond that, looking at the later rounds, you should 162 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: feel more comfortable having certain guys on a lot of teams. 163 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 1: The hit rates for late round picks is really really small, 164 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 1: and in manage redraft leagues, which is what you're referring 165 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: to here, you can make up for those mistakes. Like 166 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: I was just saying with Tyler Shuck, we're not talking 167 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 1: best ball. So if you draft like Jonah Coleman everywhere 168 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 1: and it's clear that he's just not him, you just 169 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 1: drop him. And it really doesn't matter for your bottom line, 170 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 1: even if you have like eighty percent Coleman hit rates 171 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: that late are tiny to begin with. I worry about 172 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 1: this much more when we're talking about early round picks, 173 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 1: but in the end, it's just personal preference. I think 174 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 1: ten leagues is enough where you do want to be 175 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 1: cognizant of overall exposure. Though this last question is from 176 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: Ethan via the members Hub. It says, Hey, JJ, thanks 177 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 1: for all the hard work. I'm curious to get your 178 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:54,959 Speaker 1: thoughts on a Mecca Buca. Do you think his early 179 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 1: season production was a fluke or was his late season 180 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 1: drop off mostly due to injuries both his and Baker's 181 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:04,679 Speaker 1: and other factors. With Mike Evans, Gunn and Chris Godwin 182 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,439 Speaker 1: aging the window is wide open from the step up 183 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 1: as the undisputed wide receiver one and get all the 184 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 1: targets he needs to be the guy. Do you buy 185 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: him taking the leap this season or are there more 186 00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 1: layers to his progression that I'm probably missing? 187 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 2: So I wrote about. 188 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:22,160 Speaker 1: Abuka in the Late Round Prospect Guide because in that 189 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: guide there are year two profiles. You can still get 190 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: that guide over on lateround dot com. But the first 191 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: thing I did with Abuka this offseason was see if 192 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 1: we've ever seen this kind of split in the past 193 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 1: where a rookie started off so hot and then just 194 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: fell off, And the answer was not really. 195 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 2: We know season long numbers are. 196 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: Gonna give us the most signal anyway, because there's a 197 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:46,319 Speaker 1: larger sample size, and he had good full season numbers, 198 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 1: a one point seventy five yards per route run rate, 199 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 1: a target chair of almost twenty four percent. He had 200 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:55,080 Speaker 1: the second most first downs in last year's class. Like, 201 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:58,320 Speaker 1: regardless of how it came together, it still came together 202 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,960 Speaker 1: for a Mecca Buka. To answer your question super directly, 203 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 1: it's a little bit of both. Abuka was playing out 204 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 1: of his mind week one through five last year. Through 205 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: those games, he was by far first in the NFL 206 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 1: in yards on deep ball targets, and for what it's worth, 207 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 1: seventy six percent of his targets were deemed catchable. At 208 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 1: that point in time, he was probably gonna regress in 209 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 1: some way. It's just that he regressed to a fifty 210 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 1: percent catchable targets rate, which is super low. And get this, 211 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,440 Speaker 1: From weeks one through five, Abuka had eight receptions on 212 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 1: twenty plus air yard throws. From Week six through the 213 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 1: end of the year, he had eleven, just three more 214 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 1: deep ball receptions and seven more games, and he finished 215 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 1: with almost one hundred and fifty fewer yards on those plays. 216 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,720 Speaker 1: He just wasn't getting it done via those big plays. 217 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: Will never know the exact. 218 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 2: Reason for this. 219 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:51,560 Speaker 1: I think injuries to both guys Abuka and Baker that 220 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: made it difficult for Abuka to sustain what he was 221 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 1: doing or at least regress to a reasonable mean. But 222 00:10:57,760 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 1: through it all, I look at his year two model score, 223 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: I look at his market score, I look at his 224 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:03,960 Speaker 1: season long numbers, and I look at him as a player, 225 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: how he played in year one, and how he looked 226 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: as a prospect. I think the body of work is 227 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,679 Speaker 1: there for him to have a great second season. I 228 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:15,560 Speaker 1: just wish that he was a little bit cheaper so 229 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: I can get a ton of exposure. He's going in 230 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: a range of the draft where I can make a 231 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: great argument for a lot of wide receivers. If you 232 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 1: listen to becoming a best ball bro, then you've heard 233 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 1: me talk about that. I love that range of wide receivers. 234 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 1: But that love does include a Mecca a Buka. This 235 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 1: one's from Shane from the Members Hub. It says what 236 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 1: am I missing or not understanding? About the outlook on 237 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 1: the Eagles offense. 238 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 2: For this year. 239 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 1: AJ Brown is gone, but the new OC and some 240 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: potential depth added to the roster. Can it really get 241 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 1: worse than last year? Or is this more of the 242 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 1: market digesting uncertainty. Look, I'm with you, Shane. I don't 243 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 1: think you're missing anything, and I think Jalen Hurts is 244 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: probably the most mispriced higher end quarterback right now. And 245 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 1: as you heard earlier this week, Market Score thinks the 246 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 1: exact same way. Jalen Hurts has been starting for the 247 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 1: Eagles for five seasons now, so since twenty twenty one. 248 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 1: When look at those five seasons, not only was hurts 249 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:13,319 Speaker 1: points per game average below twenty for the first time 250 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 1: last year, but the team's EPA per play was dead last. 251 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,839 Speaker 1: Their rushing EPA per play was below zero for the 252 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,679 Speaker 1: first time, their success rate on the ground was dead last, 253 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 1: their yards per play was dead last. I mean, the 254 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 1: Eagles had gone through plenty of changes offensively during Hurts's 255 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 1: time as starter, including a season without AJ Brown, and 256 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 1: they were better in that season by most metrics. AJ 257 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 1: Brown is still a really good player, so it's hard 258 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 1: to just simply replace that. But I do like the 259 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: guys they added in Stours and McKay lemon, and I 260 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 1: don't think that we can downplay the change in offensive 261 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 1: coordinator and what that might do. Kevin Patulo was so 262 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 1: bad last year. The routes he had the wide receivers 263 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 1: running were beyond basic. There wasn't as much motion, there 264 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 1: wasn't that much RPO work. It was a really bad 265 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 1: and boring So I'm optimistic that things are going to 266 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 1: turn around for them. I like Devonte Smith Wrigos, I 267 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:08,560 Speaker 1: love Jalen Hurts Wrigos, and I like Saquon in that 268 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 1: one two turn area. And I'm at least optimistic that 269 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:14,200 Speaker 1: McKay lemon can fit in and. 270 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 2: Be productive too. 271 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 1: So this is definitely an offense that I want to 272 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 1: buy into. 273 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 2: The last question is from Casey from the members Hub. 274 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 1: It says, hey, JJ, the fantasy community seems to be 275 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 1: pretty split on lad mcconkee. While some are in love, 276 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 1: many have very real reasons for doubting him. At his 277 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: ADP last season was a disappointment. He might not be 278 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:36,600 Speaker 1: on the field and the Chargers two tight end sets, 279 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 1: and it's not a guarantee that Keenan Allen won't rejoin 280 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 1: the team this season. You also mentioned in the last 281 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:44,959 Speaker 1: episode that there were some concerning trends in his data 282 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 1: that you were working on for the draft guide. My 283 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 1: question is, why are you still in on Ladd? 284 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 2: Huge fan of your work and new member. Keep doing 285 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 2: what you're doing, Thanks Casey, Thanks Casey. 286 00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 1: So I don't think the Chargers are going to sit 287 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 1: Lad McConkie in two tight end sets early is very often. 288 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 1: He's too talented of a player for that. Yes, his 289 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five definitely a disappointment, but it's not like 290 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: other wide receivers on that team dominated per route run 291 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:13,559 Speaker 1: while Lad was just really bad. He was in the 292 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 1: same vicinity as Quentin Johnson and Keenan Allen last year 293 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: in yards per out run. He led the team in 294 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: end zone targets. He had a twenty one percent target 295 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 1: chair wasn't all doom and gloom. The note that you're 296 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,160 Speaker 1: talking about related to trends is that, yes, when looking 297 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: at previous season per route run data, it is predictive 298 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: yards per out run, targets per out run, first downs 299 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: per outrun, and his first downs per route run mark 300 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 1: last year was really really bad. It was just six 301 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 1: point two percent, and historically since twenty fourteen, which is 302 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: where my ADP data dates back to, but historically we've 303 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: had twenty seven wide receivers ring past wide receiver twelve 304 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 1: and before wide receiver thirty seven who qualify here, so 305 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 1: wide receiver twos and wide receiver threes twenty seven of 306 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 1: them with two hundred and more routes running the previous 307 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: season with a first downs per route run rate below 308 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: seven percent. Of those twenty seven players, they underperformed versus 309 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 1: ADP expectation on average by over two PPR points per game. 310 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:10,160 Speaker 2: That's very bad. 311 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 1: Only one of them exceeded that expectation by two or 312 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:15,760 Speaker 1: more PPR points per game. So only one of them 313 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: outperformed where they were being drafted by two or more 314 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 1: PPR points per game. And that's just expected points per 315 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 1: game based on where they were drafted. I know I'm 316 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 1: saying the same thing over and over again, but I 317 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:28,440 Speaker 1: want you guys to really wrap your head around this. 318 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 1: And actually I just talked about him, but a Mecca 319 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 1: Buka is actually part of that list too. He had 320 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: a low first downs per route run rate last year. 321 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: But I'm just bullish on the Chargers offense I think 322 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 1: there's a legit chance that it's very good. I think 323 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 1: I've cooled off slightly on Ladd because his ADP has 324 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:48,480 Speaker 1: been rising and the things that I discovered in the 325 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 1: Guide this year, and I talked myself into Quinton Johnson 326 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 1: a little bit more. But I think Ladd belongs to 327 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: that amazing tier of wide receivers and that like round 328 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 1: three to round five range where there are so many 329 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 1: upside players to chew from, because we can't forget back 330 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 1: after year one Lad McConkie was super super legit. I 331 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 1: don't think we should only look at his previous season numbers, 332 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 1: even if a lot of them are predictive. And look, 333 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 1: this is where market score can really help us, and 334 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: his market score is not as bad as you'd think. 335 00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: He's ranked right below t Higgins as wide receiver seventeen 336 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 1: despite all of those poor previous season numbers. Market score 337 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 1: thinks his overall ADP is on point that he's being 338 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 1: drafted at the end of round three into round four, 339 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: and that's where he should be drafted according to that metric. 340 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 1: His top conference market score is Chris Godwin in twenty nineteen, 341 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 1: where he scored almost twenty ppero points per game. But 342 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: there are definitely some questionable players in that complice too, 343 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: which speaks to the volatility that I'm talking about here. 344 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: So yes, there's definitely some concern And yes I do 345 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 1: think I've called slightly about Lad McConkie compared to like 346 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 1: a month ago where he was a little bit cheaper. 347 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 1: But I want pieces of this offense, and despite his 348 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 1: down season, I still think Lad McConkie has a lot 349 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 1: of talent. His rookie season doesn't just happen by mistake. 350 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 1: That's it for today's show, though, Thanks Alvy for listening. 351 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 1: If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, 352 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 1: make sure you are bestarting for it pretty much anywhere 353 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 1: podcasts can be found, and follow me on Twitter and 354 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 1: on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening 355 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:22,679 Speaker 1: this week. Everyone greatly appreciate it. Enjoy your weekend and 356 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 1: I'll catch you next week.