1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast. 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:04,760 Speaker 2: I'm gonna just mop that action also. 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: All right, here we go. 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 2: We're throwing in so we're sitting up to cash touchdown. 5 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:16,319 Speaker 3: That's all we see. 6 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 3: That's incredible. 8 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank. 9 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:24,759 Speaker 2: I like to make money. 10 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to pa. 11 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 3: And we are underway. 12 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network podcast. Today, We've got NFL 13 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 2: Best Bets Week eight from the one and only Brandon Anderson. 14 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:45,839 Speaker 2: He's one of our fantastic NFL contributors. We give you 15 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 2: best Bets every Friday morning during the NFL season From Brandon. 16 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:53,199 Speaker 2: My name is Brendan Flasheen in the host chair. For 17 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 2: those of you joining us for the first time this season, Uh, 18 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 2: we are making our way through. 19 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 3: We're already almost the halfway point. Brandon's here we go. 20 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 2: Be sure to follow Brandon Anderson in the Action Network app, Futures, 21 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 2: Award Bets, et cetera. We did a big Awards midway 22 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 2: point roundtable pod the other day. 23 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 3: But also Brandon's got a big. 24 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:15,839 Speaker 2: Write up over our Action Network Action network dot Com, 25 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:19,199 Speaker 2: so check that out if you please. You've got four 26 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 2: best bets this week. We'll do it high like this 27 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 2: ugly running back lightning round coming up, So if you 28 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 2: do like running backs or you can't stand them, you 29 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:31,680 Speaker 2: probably should stick around for that. And then we'll do 30 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 2: a look ahead to week nine before we get out 31 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 2: of here. So, without further ado, first best bet for 32 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 2: a week eight, Brandon, this is your best bet. 33 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna go with the Cleveland Browns plus nine 34 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: and a half against the Ravens. We talked about this 35 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: one a little bit on Tuesday, Brandon and I kind 36 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 1: of warmed up to it, and I'm here somehow the 37 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: number thirty two DVA offense facing the number one offense 38 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 1: is my top player of the week. That's just it. 39 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: Though I don't think this is the number thirty two 40 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,360 Speaker 1: offense anymore, and that really is kind of the point 41 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 1: of the cap here. So finally, finally, Brendan, we have 42 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: been freed of Deshaun Watson. It's Jameis Winston season. Finally, 43 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 1: hopefully some competent quarterback play. That's crazy to me that 44 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: Jameis Winston is the competent quarterback play answer, but this 45 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: is where we're at, and I think that he really 46 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 1: fits this team. This is a spot I was looking 47 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: at before the season as I kind of like Jamis 48 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: coming in here. Remember Is, Joe Golant and I both 49 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 1: gave out the Browns as a division long shot. That's 50 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 1: what I remember happening because. 51 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,040 Speaker 2: Because it's still open in my book, so when I 52 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 2: strolled by it with all my futures to go, jeez, 53 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 2: good game. 54 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 1: You may want to cash that one out so you 55 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 1: can get like an ice cream bar or something from 56 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: that investment. So what I like about Jamis though last 57 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: year when Joe Flacco popped in, I think Jamis and 58 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 1: Flacco have a bit of a similar style, just like 59 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 1: a yolo fling it down field and make some stuff happen. 60 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: I know Mark Cooper's not there anymore, but it's not 61 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: just Jamis. That's not the only competence. The other thing 62 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 1: that happened this week quietly, Ken Dorsey is gonna call 63 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 1: the place. Ken Dorsey's the defensive coordinator, but I wanted 64 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 1: my man calling the plays for the season. It was 65 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,959 Speaker 1: unclear going into the year. Ended up being Stefanski. It's 66 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: Dorsey time. That to me is a huge upgrade. This 67 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:27,639 Speaker 1: is what I wanted before the season was Dorsey and 68 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 1: either competent Watson or quick switch to Jamis. And Nick 69 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 1: Chubb is back, still getting healthy, but he's out there, 70 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: and the offensive line is getting much healthier. They're getting 71 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: their guys back much healthier than where the start of 72 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 1: the season. So in my roster matrix, as you know, 73 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: I've made those adjustments, the offense goes from twenty sixth 74 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 1: to nineteen, so still not great, but like fine average, 75 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 1: And overall they go from the twenty sixth team to 76 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: the thirteenth best team because the Browns defense has been 77 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 1: coming around a little bit. And don't forget how much 78 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: having not a god awful offense helps the defense just 79 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: by not being on the field all game, right, So effectively, 80 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 1: the Browns as they've been are now the Steelers are 81 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 1: the Chargers. That's effectively the profile we're looking at here 82 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 1: is like, yeah, pretty good defense, maybe not quite Steelers 83 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:23,480 Speaker 1: or Chargers level this season, and an okay offense. All right, Well, 84 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: I'm not that excited about the Steelers are the Chargers. 85 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 1: But if I was getting ten points against the Ravens, 86 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,040 Speaker 1: I kind of like that, Like we've seen that Ravens 87 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 1: game play out a bunch of times, and Baltimore's pass 88 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 1: defense I think is beatable. I think Jamis can throw 89 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: on these guys, hit some big plays. There's there's they'll 90 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: just bilo sell high here. Underdogs scoring sixteen or last 91 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 1: three times in or else since twenty nineteen or sixty 92 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 1: one percent against the spread. So that's what go what's 93 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 1: down must come up for the Browns. What goes up 94 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,839 Speaker 1: must come down. Teams scoring twenty five or more like 95 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 1: the Ravens and five straight forty two percent against the spread. 96 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: So we're just kind of hoping these pass through the night. 97 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,600 Speaker 1: Lamar as more than a field goal favorite forty two 98 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 1: percent cover. Jamis has more than a field goal underdog 99 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: sixty six percent cover. Right, So just playing some trends here, 100 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:14,600 Speaker 1: playing the matchup we talked those Tuesday. The rivalry has 101 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,479 Speaker 1: been close. They've split this rivalry five to the last 102 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: six years. These teams hate each other, they show up 103 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:22,159 Speaker 1: for the matchup. Five to the last seven matchups have 104 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 1: been within six points here and the Browns, as bad 105 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:27,159 Speaker 1: as it feels so far and as awful as the 106 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 1: offense has been, they've lost by six, four, four, seven. Great, 107 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: we'll cash all four of those on this one. We're 108 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 1: get a big line here. They're hanging around. But you 109 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 1: know me, I can't just settle for the cover. I 110 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 1: think the Browns have a chance to win this thing. 111 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 1: Plus three fifty in the money line, I think it's 112 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:47,840 Speaker 1: worth a sprinkle. Historically, the last couple decades, AFC North 113 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:52,600 Speaker 1: underdogs are the most profitable underdog division. These these games 114 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 1: tend to be close. And one more, a little future 115 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 1: is sneak for you here. After the Ravens, here's the 116 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 1: next Browns game. Five in a row. Chargers, Saints, Steelers, 117 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 1: Broncos Steelers Again, well, we just said the Browns are 118 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: kind of like the Chargers and the Steelers. Now, those 119 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 1: are winnable games. The Broncos they're another one like that, 120 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 1: low scoring, ugly defense close. The Browns can win those games. 121 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:19,719 Speaker 1: Their win total right now is three point five for 122 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 1: the season, only got one so far. You only need 123 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 1: three more to cash. I like the over. You can 124 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 1: do an over four and a half plus one to 125 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 1: forty five if you want. I don't want to go 126 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,360 Speaker 1: too aggressive here because at some point they're gonna want 127 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 1: to tank and get a good draft pick for next year. 128 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 1: But I think over three and a half, Like, that's 129 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: just such a low number. Good spot to buy in 130 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:40,040 Speaker 1: on the Browns. So Browns plus nine and a half 131 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 1: against the Ravens. That's our top spread of the week. 132 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:47,919 Speaker 2: Okay, second best bet is a total two teams on 133 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 2: paper that should just be performing a lot better than 134 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 2: we expect. This is a one o'clock game, correct, So 135 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 2: I think before the year, I think folks would get 136 00:06:58,000 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 2: up for this game. 137 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 3: But you still don't ex the Phillies. 138 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:05,160 Speaker 2: The Phillies the Eagles. The Phillies might actually score more 139 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 2: than the Eagles if you just do like once per 140 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 2: game and then Bengals, you're down on both of these offenses. 141 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take the Eagles Bengals under the forty eight. 142 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 1: You're right. This is the one pm kickoff that wasn't 143 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 1: This was supposed to be the game of the week 144 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 1: in the afternoon. They built it. Oh, they looked it 145 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 1: up early. They gave us what was supposed to be 146 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: Jane Daniels Caleb Williams. We'll see if we actually get 147 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: that one now. They didn't know that obviously, So this 148 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 1: one was forty nine and a half in the look 149 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 1: Ahead Sunday all feels awful. Drops the forty six and 150 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 1: a half. We're back to forty eight here. That's important. 151 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 1: Forty sevens are really important key number for total. So 152 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 1: we're past the forty seven. Definitely get it above that number. 153 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 1: Both defenses are sort of improving and finding a few answers. 154 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 1: Both offenses certainly are not trending up. They're probably trending down. 155 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 1: I think the Bengals are going to pass. That's what 156 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: they've been doing well. Philly's pass defense has found some answers. 157 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: They've been a little bit better lately against not great competition. 158 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 1: But I think that helps the Eagles. Is gonna want 159 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 1: to run? They might be able to. I couldn't really 160 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: make up in my mind on the side here, I 161 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 1: do think I kind of lean toward Philly's direction because 162 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: the Bengals run defense has not been great. But if 163 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,679 Speaker 1: the Eagles run, I'm good with that. That helps push 164 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 1: the clock, keep things moving. We see the Eagles do 165 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 1: that and helps the under here. And don't forget Jordan Milatta, 166 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: stud left tackle for the Eagles, not out there. Trey 167 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: Hendrickson lines up from that spot. Maybe we've heard of him. 168 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: The one Bengals defender that we have to prepare for. 169 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 1: So now Jalen Hurts is under pressure all game. That's 170 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: not gone well at all this season. So passing I 171 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 1: don't see going well for them. That's gonna kind of 172 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 1: screw up the run game at times as well. And 173 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 1: then Nick Siriani really strange home road splits on totals. 174 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: Home games with Sirianni seventy one percent to the over, 175 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 1: road games with Sirianni sixty two percent to the under. 176 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 1: It's a huge split difference. Eagles are four and two 177 00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 1: to the under this year. Their road games are eleven 178 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 1: points a game lower total than their home games so 179 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:06,560 Speaker 1: far since started last season with Siriani. Here's some totals 180 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 1: for the Eagles games on the road. These are not 181 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 1: Eagles totals. These are the whole game twenty seven, thirty one, 182 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 1: thirty four, thirty seven, thirty seven, thirty seven, forty one. 183 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: We're getting a lot of these, just ugly. Why are 184 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: we watching the Eagles sort of games? Since the bye 185 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 1: week Eagles games thirty three and a half points again 186 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 1: total points, not just them. Bengals last two games under 187 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 1: thirty points a game after sixty five a game. The 188 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 1: previous four again a little bit of opponent in there 189 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: as well. But I just feel like these teams are 190 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: not what they were billed to be, and I have 191 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 1: to bet down the under here. I might touch the 192 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 1: under forty one and a half around plus two hundred, 193 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 1: just a bit of an alt there. The Eagles are 194 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 1: forty three or below four times already. Bengals are below 195 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: thirty six three times already. So I just feel like, yeah, 196 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:55,439 Speaker 1: kind of what you said, we've moved this one up 197 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:57,959 Speaker 1: in the day. We're hiding it behind some of the 198 00:09:58,000 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: other games because it's just not what it once want 199 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: because these offenses aren't what they're supposed to be. I 200 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:04,679 Speaker 1: don't know it's gonna be great football. I don't want 201 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 1: it to be great football. I wanted to be under. 202 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:09,320 Speaker 1: So Eagles Bengals under forty eight, your third. 203 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 2: Pick, we're gonna go to Monday night Steelers Giants. 204 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:14,839 Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is the one we took already last 205 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 1: week on the look Ahead on this podcast. I like 206 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 1: the under. We got it at thirty seven and a half. 207 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 1: We know thirty seven's that last key number. Now it's 208 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 1: at thirty six at books. I still like it, but 209 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 1: it's mine shaft season, Brandon, we're hitting the mine shaft here. 210 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 1: Under thirty and a half plus two point fifteen will 211 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: even take a one level lower. So just quickly reviewing 212 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: why we like the under here, as if I need 213 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 1: to explain to you why we don't want the Giants 214 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 1: and Steelers to score points. Giants thirty nine or below 215 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 1: in six of seven games, Steelers thirty seven or below 216 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: four of their seven combined ten and three to their under. Now, look, 217 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, the savior has fixed to the offense. Yeah, 218 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 1: we've got a half of a football game. Like Russell 219 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 1: Wilson was getting booed off the field the first half. 220 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: So let's not necessarily think that they have fixed everything. 221 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 1: The usual trends here primetime under sixty percent, all the 222 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: usual low, ugly trends we talked to, all of that. 223 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 1: Specific to the matchup, Giants offensive line, I think it's 224 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 1: the worst in the league. With Thomas out that against 225 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 1: that Pittsburgh defensive front, that's a disaster. I don't know 226 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:23,199 Speaker 1: how the Giants score in this game, period. Dexter Lawrence, 227 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 1: who's been great interior pressure Steelers offensive line on the 228 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 1: interior is banged up. Hey, guess who you don't want 229 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:33,839 Speaker 1: having interior pressure your short quarterback that takes too long 230 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: to throw Russell Wilson, who's the guy back there? I 231 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: just don't love either team's chances of scoring here. It's 232 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 1: a slow pace. Chargers Saints is probably the only game 233 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 1: with a faster or a slower pace this weekend. So 234 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 1: I mentioned much of the trends. Here's why mind shaft 235 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 1: total's that thirty seven or below. Since November twenty nineteen. 236 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 1: We've done that one before thirty eight seventeen and one 237 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: to the under sixty nine percent. Now we've played this 238 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,200 Speaker 1: a few times and we've missed it the last three 239 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: on this trend of mess. So if you go back 240 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: and look at those games, they're all the ones where 241 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 1: I'm getting the DMS afterward. It's like, man, we get 242 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 1: screwed on that one, like fourteen points in garbage time 243 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 1: in the last three minutes. So you can't not play 244 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 1: this just because you're getting some garbage touchdowns in there. 245 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:19,079 Speaker 1: That's part of the risk. You know, if you take 246 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 1: a little under, you might catch a garbage touchdown. In 247 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:25,439 Speaker 1: those games, there's fifty five of them, thirty one of 248 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 1: the fifty five. Fifty six percent finish thirty or below. 249 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: Now we're at mind chef season under thirty and a 250 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: half plus two to fifty and that's over half of them. 251 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 1: When the total is this low, don't just go under, 252 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 1: they go way under. Twenty four percent of them go 253 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 1: twenty three points or below. Let's hope we don't get that, 254 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 1: because this is Monday night football, and we both know 255 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 1: we're gonna say we're not watching it, but we're going 256 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 1: to watch it. Please score some points. But if you don't, 257 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 1: under twenty three and a half is plus six hundred. 258 00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 1: I have to play a little bit on that as well. Honestly, 259 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 1: don't know who's scoring or how they're getting the points 260 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 1: in this game. This is one of the lowest total 261 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: looks to me on the season. So I still like 262 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: the under. I'm still happy about that. We mentioned we 263 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,559 Speaker 1: might go on the mine shaft. He gave out the numbers. Now, 264 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 1: so let's let's take the ride down. 265 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 3: Okay, I'll give you the path. 266 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 2: It's TJ Watt obliterating Daniel Jones scoop and score touchdown. 267 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 1: That's a few times, yeah, a few times. 268 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 2: Okay, let's do the let's do the last one. This 269 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 2: involves the Packers heavily against the Jaguars. 270 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:33,600 Speaker 1: It does, so we did the mine shaft down. Now 271 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,079 Speaker 1: it's time to get some points in some production here. 272 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 1: I'm calling this the Packers super escalator. So there's a 273 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 1: couple of picks here. All right, let me move the picks. 274 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 1: Then i'll make the case and i'll tell you how 275 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 1: we're doing the super escalator. So first pick is Romeo 276 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 1: Dobbs over forty four and a half receiving yards. We're 277 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 1: going with there. And then we're also gonna take Jordan 278 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: Love touchdowns. We did this with Drake Mail last week. 279 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:59,840 Speaker 1: Touchdowns against Jaguars defense. Jordan Love three touchdowns is plus 280 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 1: one ninety and in Romeo Dobbs over the receiving forty 281 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 1: five and a half plus a touchdown is plus two 282 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:08,719 Speaker 1: to ninety. Now those are not the escalators. Those are 283 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 1: three standard picks. I'm making all those picks. We'll get 284 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 1: to the escalator, but let me explain the picks first. 285 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 1: So weirdly high support on Jacksonville this week. This line 286 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 1: keeps dropping all week. It's down to minus three and 287 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 1: a half Packers at some books. I don't really get it. 288 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: I'll be honest, I thought about just taking the Packers here. 289 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 1: We know how I feel about the Jaguars here. They're 290 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: coming back from two weeks in London. Yeah, no, bye 291 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 1: a week. We've talked about this ad nauseum. Teams that 292 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 1: are coming back from London on one week even tie 293 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 1: or trail in the fourth quarter of the following game 294 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 1: thirteen out of fifteen times. I don't know why I 295 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 1: want my money on the Jaguars here, considering the history 296 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 1: of that, and typically we know that that trend has 297 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 1: been take the team total over for the opponent, the 298 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 1: Packers in this case, under for the team coming back 299 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: from London. So the history of post London says Packers 300 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 1: probably score here, Jaguars might not score. Now. Look, the 301 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 1: Jaguars won their one game last year coming back from 302 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 1: two weeks in London. That's enough data point for me 303 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 1: to throw out all that other history there. Packers defense, 304 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: Jaguars offense, I don't know about that side. So that's 305 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 1: why I'm staying away from a side. I'm not really 306 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: sure I think about that part. I do feel good 307 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: about the Packers scoring top five offense. Jaguars are the 308 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 1: worst defense DVA in the league. They're the worst pass 309 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 1: defense in the league. They've just been getting carved up 310 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: by opponents. So Jaguars played man. We know that they 311 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 1: play the most man in the league. Jalen Reid's been 312 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 1: awesome for the Packers. He's their zone beater. So I 313 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 1: don't think it's a Jalen Reid game. I think it's 314 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 1: Romeo Dobbs. He's their better man beater if you'l get 315 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 1: the grades on PFF, he's been their guy. He's averaging 316 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 1: fifty two yards a game over forty four and a 317 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:50,400 Speaker 1: half in four to six, so that's kind of the 318 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:53,600 Speaker 1: baseline here. I think somebody's gonna put up yards there. 319 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 1: It may not be Jalen Reid. I like Dobbs. He 320 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 1: had two touchdowns two weeks ago. Re Membory kind of 321 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 1: had that like weird not with the team thing when 322 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 1: he came back and scored twice. He had eight touchdowns 323 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 1: last year with Jordan Love, so this is a guy 324 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 1: that Love likes to get his touchdowns too. So there's 325 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 1: the over forty four and a half and then add 326 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 1: in the anytime touchdown plus two ninety. Jordan Love is 327 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 1: averaging three touchdowns per game just passing. In his five games, 328 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 1: he's had two to two, three, four and four. Jaguars 329 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: defense the last five games allowed the exact same touchdowns two, two, three, 330 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 1: four and four just by passing. That's a lot of 331 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 1: passing touchdowns. Now. I think part of the reason Jacksonville 332 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 1: money's coming in this week is Jordan Love is way 333 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 1: better against zone. He's number one EPA per play against zone. 334 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: He's been here ratic against man. But what he is 335 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 1: with the rattic is he makes some mistakes, but he 336 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 1: also hits big plays, explosive plays. He's top three and 337 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 1: explosive play right against man. And again we meet our 338 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 1: man beaters. That's why I like Romeo dops so Love 339 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 1: three touchdowns three of the five games we get the 340 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: three touchdowns up plus one to ninety, So I like 341 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: that be as well. So Jordan Love three touchdowns, Ron 342 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 1: me with Dobbs forty five yards add the touchdown. That's 343 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 1: where we're starting. I'm gonna let you respond to that 344 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 1: and then I'll take you up the super escalator. 345 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 2: Well, the defensive look from Jacksonville makes sense as to 346 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 2: why you want to avoid reading. 347 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 3: He only two grabs last week too. 348 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:19,920 Speaker 2: So, but that's just they're so talented. They the way 349 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 2: they spread the ball around. I'm with you too on 350 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 2: the line. I don't I don't fully understand this either 351 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 2: total Packers team totals twenty six and a half and 352 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 2: Jacksonville's twenty two and a half, which finds up with 353 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:32,439 Speaker 2: the spread. 354 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,160 Speaker 3: But I'm into it. Keep going. 355 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, I looked at the Packers team total over as well. 356 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 1: I don't mind that angle. If you just want to 357 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 1: just kind of fade out from all this, all the 358 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 1: craziness here and just do a packer's side. Okay, So 359 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:48,400 Speaker 1: Packer's Escalator, Packers super Esculator to the Moon. I got 360 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 1: four levels of escalator here for you, So I'm gonna 361 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 1: spell it out, give you the price, and then you 362 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 1: can just check the app and we'll get all these 363 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,159 Speaker 1: in there. And obviously, by the time we get to 364 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,120 Speaker 1: the end here, it's a one hundred and fifty to one, 365 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:01,960 Speaker 1: so we're talking like a tenth of a unit. We're 366 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,359 Speaker 1: getting a little crazy here. But you know, this is 367 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: like and if you give a mouse a cookie sort 368 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: of thing, and I'm like, well, if if Romeo Dobbs 369 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 1: is getting his forty five yards in a touchdown. Then 370 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 1: Love's already got a touchdown, how about two more? So 371 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: that's the first level, Romeo. We'll just call it fifty 372 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: yards in a touchdown, Jordan Love, three touchdowns, and if 373 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,880 Speaker 1: they do those things, the Packers are gonna win the game, right, 374 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: They're gonna win the game. He has that big of 375 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 1: a game. So that's our first escalator, ten to one, 376 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 1: ten to one odds Romeo fifty yards in a touchdown, Love, 377 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 1: three touchdowns in a win. The next escalator is very simple, 378 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 1: just one more Love touchdown, same Romeo line. Four touchdowns 379 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,880 Speaker 1: for Jordan Love. Member, he's done that twice already, still 380 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 1: in the win, twenty two to one. So we just 381 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 1: added one more Jordan Love touchdown. Our odds of Romeo 382 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 1: getting one is even better. Our odds of winning is 383 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 1: even better, twenty two to one. That's the second escalator. 384 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 1: All right, Well, give him mouse a cookie. If Jordan 385 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 1: Love's throwing four touchdowns against man coverage, why want to 386 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,240 Speaker 1: Romeo just catch two of them? How about that? All right? 387 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 1: Romeo two touchdowns, Love four touchdowns and the Packers win 388 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 1: fifty five to one. And then last level, the whole 389 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 1: thing plus one more twist, four touchdowns from leven to 390 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 1: win Romeo fifty yards and two scores. And if Romeo's 391 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 1: catching two touchdowns and Love's throwing four of them, the 392 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,400 Speaker 1: Packers are lighting it up. What if you just got 393 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,919 Speaker 1: the first touchdown of the game too? How about that 394 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 1: throw that one in one and fifty to one. It's 395 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:31,160 Speaker 1: the top, tippy top layer of the super escalator. That's 396 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 1: the bet. We're taking it to the top. Let's hope 397 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: we can get just like a crazy super escalator hit 398 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 1: here on Romeo, Dobbs and join Love. 399 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 3: Okay, surprise. 400 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 2: Another wrinkle wasn't Dobbs getting to call it seventy five 401 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 2: yards or one hundred yards? Because I still kick it 402 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 2: out of I'm sorry, I still kick it out of 403 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 2: my head. 404 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:51,919 Speaker 3: How Joe Flacco through deep balls. 405 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 2: To Alec Pierce on that defense and it's still bothering 406 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:59,159 Speaker 2: me to this day because I'm having forty one freaking 407 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 2: points to ruin if it's been the under. 408 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,399 Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't mind the yards. Obviously, I'm getting created 409 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 1: here with adding things in. The thing I like most 410 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: here is Love throwing touchdowns on the Jaguars. So I 411 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: think that's why I was focused on. Dobbs is really 412 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 1: not a player I love necessarily, so forty five fifty 413 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 1: yards I feel pretty good at. Probably is gonna have 414 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 1: to catch a long one for a touchdown anyway to 415 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 1: hit this fat. I don't know if I want to 416 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,640 Speaker 1: go too crazy on the yards just because, like you said, 417 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: love might spread it around. But it's just a touchdown 418 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,919 Speaker 1: heavy angle that I'm going for. And the Jaguars have 419 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 1: been given out touchdowns like Halloween candy, so let's hope 420 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: they keep it up. 421 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:39,160 Speaker 2: Shout out to our Action Network colleague Sean Zarillo, who 422 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 2: had another great year in baseball, finishing the MLB regular 423 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 2: season up more than twenty five units. And with Action Pro, 424 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:49,159 Speaker 2: you get instant notifications every time Zarillo or any of 425 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:51,879 Speaker 2: our Action experts make a pick in the Action app. 426 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:56,399 Speaker 2: Just visit actionnetwork dot com slash pro and use the 427 00:20:56,400 --> 00:21:01,040 Speaker 2: promo code October for fifteen percent off and Action Pro subscription. 428 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 2: That's fifteen percent off at actionnetwork dot com slash. 429 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 3: Pro with the promo code October. 430 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,439 Speaker 2: And be sure to check out Sean every week talking 431 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 2: MLB playoffs on the Payoff Pitch podcast. 432 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 3: Okay, those are the four best bets. 433 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 2: Let's work our way to what we teased earlier, the 434 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,359 Speaker 2: ugly running back Lightning. 435 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 3: Round Conder. 436 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 2: Lightning round light. Your first running back that will be 437 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,240 Speaker 2: featured is Breece Hall going to Foxborrow to. 438 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:31,960 Speaker 3: Face the Patriots. What's the play here? 439 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 1: So I actually don't like any of these three running backs. 440 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 1: I have hard time betting on them because I don't 441 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 1: think they've been very good. But I like the spot, 442 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,360 Speaker 1: So I'm playing the spot on all three. Breecee Hall 443 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 1: playing the Patriots just gonna take the rushing over for him. 444 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 1: That's seventy five yards plus a touchdown. Seventy five rushing 445 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 1: yards and a touchdown is plus one ninety seven. So 446 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,639 Speaker 1: Jets are touchdown favorites. They are to handle the Patriots right. 447 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 1: That was the one easy win of the Jets season. 448 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 1: And New England coming back from London, we just talked 449 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:03,439 Speaker 1: about that. They're in a rough spot. They got the 450 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,359 Speaker 1: rookie quarterback, coach Combo back from London. It's not a 451 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 1: great spot for them. Again, we know the trends there. 452 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 1: The Jets should score, the Jets should take care of things, 453 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,919 Speaker 1: and they're going to care more about this game like 454 00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:15,880 Speaker 1: they're still trying to save the season or out here 455 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,200 Speaker 1: like finally signing Hassan A. Rdick halfway through the season. Sure, 456 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 1: great job, Jets, your season super saved. Congratulations. They're gonna 457 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 1: try here. They want to get the win. They last 458 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 1: won in New England before last season two thousand and six, 459 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 1: so they're gonna have to do some stuff get the win. 460 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:33,200 Speaker 1: The thing we've talked about with the Jets, we talked 461 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,680 Speaker 1: about them at length on Tuesday. The run game has 462 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 1: been bad, right, The run defense and the run offense 463 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 1: both have been a problem. Well, may I suggest to 464 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,240 Speaker 1: you playing the Patriots, who are the league's worst rushing 465 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,919 Speaker 1: offense and bottom five rushing defense. I'm sorry to do 466 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,199 Speaker 1: it to you, Brendan, but I think this is a 467 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 1: game where the over commitment to the run game pays off. 468 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 1: Braylan Allen not really playing anymore under Todd Downy the 469 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: last two games. He's only getting three touch it's the 470 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:04,160 Speaker 1: brief show. I don't love the brief show because take 471 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 1: away two big caries he's had this year. I tweeted 472 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 1: this out. Outside of two carries, Breese Hall is averaging 473 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,159 Speaker 1: under three yards of carrie. That's not great. This is 474 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 1: not a Breeze Hall is awesome place. This is the 475 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 1: a volume play attempts. You can bet on that. His 476 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:19,680 Speaker 1: rushing attempts line is eighteen and a half this week. 477 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 1: Only Derrick Henry is higher than that. So books are 478 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 1: all but telling us he's gonna get his touches. We agree, 479 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 1: he's gonna get his chances. Good luck into the yards. 480 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 1: We're gonna take the lock. Six running backs have had 481 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,159 Speaker 1: seventy five rushing yards against the Patriots just in the 482 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,920 Speaker 1: last four games, so I'll help you with the math there. 483 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 1: That's more than one a game. Two of those games. 484 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 1: Eight running backs have scored a rushing touchdown against the 485 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 1: Patriots this season. So that's what we're going for. Breeze 486 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:51,119 Speaker 1: seventy five plus a touchdown, basically plus two hundred odds. 487 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 2: Jets ended their losing streak in Foxborough last year. 488 00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 3: It was an ugly snow game. 489 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 2: It was Belichick's last game as head coach at the Patriots. 490 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,880 Speaker 2: Breese Hall ran the ball thirty seven times from one 491 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 2: hundred and seventy eight yards and a touchdown last year. 492 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:06,400 Speaker 2: Because you got my mind, Fick, and I'm like, wait 493 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,119 Speaker 2: a minute, I think Haul was a factor in that 494 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 2: ugly snow and it wasn't much going on. 495 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 3: It was a seventeen to three final. 496 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 2: A Briest Hall ran for one seventy eight and a 497 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,640 Speaker 2: score in that game. Is that bodes well this next guy? 498 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,680 Speaker 2: I don't know who this next guy is. Actually, who 499 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 2: is this guy that you're picking against the Saints? 500 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,359 Speaker 1: Yeah? JK. Dobbins, I hear that he's he's in the 501 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 1: mix for comeback Player of the Year. We talked about 502 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 1: this Brendan on Tuesday. I think that he is a 503 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 1: ridiculous favorite for comeback player that you can listen to 504 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,680 Speaker 1: the Tuesday episode. But here I am there's darcasm here. 505 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 1: But Brandon Ky adding on JK. Dobbins the same week 506 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 1: that I like railed on. Nobody even knows who this 507 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,920 Speaker 1: guy is it. It's honestly very similar to the same 508 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 1: case as the third one will be here a running back. 509 00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,719 Speaker 1: I don't like that much for a team that I 510 00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 1: think is going to win an ugly game and probably 511 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:57,600 Speaker 1: run the football a lot. So playing the Saints. Saints 512 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:01,439 Speaker 1: defense has bottomed out. Just told you that we had 513 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:03,920 Speaker 1: a bottom five run defense in the Patriots. The Saints 514 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,959 Speaker 1: run defense is thirty first. They forgot how to tackle. 515 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: Like their games are tough to watch at this point. 516 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 1: Now the Chargers are going to hear Oh, they're passing 517 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 1: more out of the bye week, the Chargers are passing more. Yeah, 518 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:14,160 Speaker 1: that's true. 519 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:15,879 Speaker 3: More is relative. 520 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 1: They're passing closer to net neutral, but they're still running 521 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,359 Speaker 1: the ball plenty. Thet's still big ten football out here. 522 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,200 Speaker 1: Chargers are six and out of the under. I looked 523 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 1: at the under here, but Saints are five and two 524 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,360 Speaker 1: to the over. Why because their defense can't do anything. 525 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,919 Speaker 1: So we're playing that angle here. No Gus Edwards, so 526 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 1: we got volume. JK. Dobbins at least fourteen carries five 527 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,920 Speaker 1: straight games. If you'll get the Saints, they've had five 528 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 1: times where they faced a running back, have fourteen carries 529 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,280 Speaker 1: or more. Every one of those running backs put up 530 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 1: eighty yards in a touchdown. So we're at JK. Dobbins 531 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,960 Speaker 1: same exact play as Breece Hall. Seventy five yards and 532 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,879 Speaker 1: a touchdown is plus two oh three. Now, similarly to 533 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 1: Breeze Hall, three long Dobbins runs is like a third 534 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,200 Speaker 1: of his yards on the season, only averaging three point 535 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 1: one yards to carry the last four games. But I 536 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: like this Those games came against Arizona, Denver, Kansas City, Pittsburgh. 537 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 1: Those are top ten run defenses. The Saints are not 538 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 1: a top ten run defense. So I'm not convinced the 539 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,639 Speaker 1: Chargers are good. I do think they take care of 540 00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,359 Speaker 1: the Saints at home. I think similar here. You kind 541 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,600 Speaker 1: of pick up on this if you want a teaser 542 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 1: Chargers Jets, I think is a nice teaser this week. 543 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:26,920 Speaker 1: They're both about a touchdown favor You basically are just 544 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,240 Speaker 1: taking the money lines more or less, just get the 545 00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 1: ugly wins, stay in the AFC race. This is my 546 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:34,840 Speaker 1: version of doing that. I think if they get the 547 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,679 Speaker 1: ugly win, they're just gonna kind of be ahead and 548 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,120 Speaker 1: hand the ball off a bunch of times. And we're 549 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,160 Speaker 1: gonna put this in the bottom section of our NFL 550 00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,680 Speaker 1: recap show on Sunday night and not have much to say, 551 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 1: but hopefully we get Dobbins seventy five to a touchdown 552 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,800 Speaker 1: plus two oh three, So again almost the exact same play, 553 00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,120 Speaker 1: two to one odds seventy five in a touchdown. 554 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,880 Speaker 2: Okay, this last one, I actually I understand it from 555 00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 2: a pick perspective, but I don't get it as far 556 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:03,520 Speaker 2: as a line because I thought like Javonte Williams ran 557 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 2: the ball really well against the Saints. 558 00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 3: Team on Thursday night. 559 00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 2: Now he's got Carolina and it's a shorter number to 560 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 2: get over plus a touchdown. 561 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 1: Yeah. Again, very similar here. The line though, is only 562 00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 1: sixty one and a half. Like you said, are these 563 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:18,280 Speaker 1: other guys at that seventy four and a half. I'm 564 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 1: not picking these lines either. There's standard rushing yard lines. 565 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:23,480 Speaker 1: I'm not going crazy on the alts here. There are 566 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,280 Speaker 1: no escalators here. I don't believe in these running backs. 567 00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 1: I just believe in volume getting them there. It's again 568 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 1: a similar case. The Broncos are big favorites at home 569 00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,160 Speaker 1: against the Panthers. We keep fading the Panthers. They've now 570 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 1: given up three touchdowns in or more in the first half, 571 00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:43,919 Speaker 1: all but that one win. But Denver's up to minus ten. 572 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 1: That's too high for me. This team can't score enough 573 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,159 Speaker 1: to feel good about that. Denver's been more of a 574 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 1: second half team, the six and the one second half ats. 575 00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 1: I'm gonna stay away from the first half thing. We'll 576 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,680 Speaker 1: come back to with the Panthers. Don't worry. My Way 577 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 1: is playing here. Obviously, the Denver defense of the standout. 578 00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:00,199 Speaker 1: You know, welcome back Bryce Young, Good luck with that. 579 00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:04,720 Speaker 1: Congratulations on getting another chance. Here Carolina's run defense. Last week, 580 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 1: we just played against the number thirty one DVA run defense. 581 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,160 Speaker 1: Carolina dropped from twenty first to thirty second in one 582 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,320 Speaker 1: week last week. That's how bad the run defense was. 583 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,960 Speaker 1: In the same week that, as you said, Denver ran well, 584 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,920 Speaker 1: they moved from twenty seventh to sixteenth. And rushing offense, 585 00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 1: this is a team that lost a run the football. 586 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,639 Speaker 1: They've invested a lot in the offensive line. They've tried, 587 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:28,679 Speaker 1: but not run that well. I think that's why the 588 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,639 Speaker 1: line is lower. Javonte win has not been that good 589 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,879 Speaker 1: that when you're talking about fourteen carries, eighty eight yards, 590 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:38,400 Speaker 1: two scores. That's great against the Saints, not great a 591 00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:40,960 Speaker 1: few other games. But if you look his splits are 592 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:44,240 Speaker 1: very stark in a win versus a loss. Well, I 593 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 1: think we're getting the win here thirteen sixty one, the 594 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,680 Speaker 1: previous win sixteen for seventy seven, the win before that. 595 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,000 Speaker 1: All right, we're in range here, We're getting to that 596 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,280 Speaker 1: yardage total. By the way, you're gonna wonder, well, shouldn't 597 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 1: you be adding in the money line on these we're 598 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,440 Speaker 1: banking on a win, shouldn't just add that in. It 599 00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 1: only adds like a plus thirty or forty each time. 600 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,280 Speaker 1: I don't find that worth the you know worth in 601 00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,400 Speaker 1: case they blow the lead laid or something like that. 602 00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,000 Speaker 1: I don't find that enough like juice for the squeeze. 603 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,240 Speaker 1: But it's basically my way of playing a money line 604 00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,800 Speaker 1: that if this team wins, how do we get there? 605 00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 1: They probably run the ball. Carolina has allowed seven running 606 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:23,040 Speaker 1: backs already to get seventy yards in a touchdown. The 607 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,200 Speaker 1: only game they didn't allow running back to do that's 608 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 1: the game they won against the Raiders, who, by the way, 609 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,240 Speaker 1: can't run the football, so maybe that's the only reason 610 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,880 Speaker 1: they won that game. Javonte Williams over sixty one and 611 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,240 Speaker 1: a half plus a touchdown. This one's plus one to 612 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,880 Speaker 1: eighty five out there. Just all three guys, Breese Hall, 613 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:44,560 Speaker 1: Javonte Williams, JK. Dobbins, whoever he is, take the rushing 614 00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 1: over plus a touchdown. It's about two to one on 615 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 1: all three. 616 00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:52,479 Speaker 2: And there are uncertainties with a unit or units on 617 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,680 Speaker 2: both sides of the ball with some of these teams, 618 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 2: which is why I kind of get stay away, especially 619 00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 2: with you mentioned it with Denver with the ten points 620 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:02,840 Speaker 2: that that seems like a lot even though it's Bryce 621 00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 2: young back and uh the outfit the Saints are putting 622 00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 2: out there at quarterback. And to be fair to both 623 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:09,960 Speaker 2: the Jets, I mean they got his Darren Rodgers hasn't 624 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:10,800 Speaker 2: played all that great, so. 625 00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:15,240 Speaker 1: Ugly these are the Jets, Chargers, and and Broncos being 626 00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,040 Speaker 1: like more than a touchdown favorite. This is why we 627 00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 1: don't have a lot of spreads this week, because it's 628 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 1: it's hard. It's hard to put your money on either 629 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 1: any of those teams as big time favorites, but it's 630 00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:27,600 Speaker 1: pretty hard playing the other side no matter how many 631 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 1: points they're given you either. So this is my creative 632 00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:31,920 Speaker 1: way to get around that and play the script at 633 00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 1: a little bit more of juice. 634 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,400 Speaker 2: Okay, let's do the look ahead to week nine. Your 635 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 2: Monday night football pick is under Pittsburgh and the Giants, 636 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 2: as you referenced earlier. 637 00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 3: So that's look ahead from last week. 638 00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,040 Speaker 2: Spend a couple of minutes here on what you've got 639 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,360 Speaker 2: for the week nine look ahead spot. 640 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:48,600 Speaker 3: Let's look ahead. 641 00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:54,719 Speaker 2: Just give it a shot. How about next week? 642 00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, for the bajillionth week in a row. I'm picking 643 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 1: against the Giants. It's just like what I do now, 644 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,680 Speaker 1: apparently give me the Commanders minus two and a half 645 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:09,160 Speaker 1: at the Giants. Now. The trick here, obviously is Jane Daniels. 646 00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,960 Speaker 1: That's the big question. And is Jane Daniels being factored 647 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:14,960 Speaker 1: into the line here. That's the thing that I wanted 648 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:16,600 Speaker 1: looking at this because I was like, wait a minute, 649 00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:18,720 Speaker 1: Commander is minus two and a half. We're getting below 650 00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,959 Speaker 1: the key number. So our old friend Raheem Palmer, who 651 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:23,960 Speaker 1: used to be on this Best Best podcast with me, 652 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,440 Speaker 1: I asked him over at the ringer, what number would 653 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 1: you make this if we assume Jane Daniels is healthy 654 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 1: and playing. He gave it Commanders over a touchdown by 655 00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:35,400 Speaker 1: his model, So I think that this line is assuming 656 00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,840 Speaker 1: maybe split the difference on do we get Daniels, do 657 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 1: we get Mariota. If we get Daniels, there's no way 658 00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:43,479 Speaker 1: the stays below the key number. So I'm betting on that. 659 00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:47,120 Speaker 1: And we haven't seen him practice this week, but each 660 00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,360 Speaker 1: day they're saying this is as of Thursday taping, he's 661 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:53,720 Speaker 1: not practicing today, but we'll try. Maybe he'll practice tomorrow. 662 00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,040 Speaker 1: This typically is like a one or a two week injury. 663 00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,840 Speaker 1: I would guess he's a no for this week. That's 664 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 1: what the line looks like this week. It's moved towards 665 00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 1: Chicago by from minus two and a half Washington to 666 00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 1: minus two and a half Chicago. We might get that 667 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:09,520 Speaker 1: sort of line moving on this pick. That's the angle 668 00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 1: here is I like the pick anyway. I love it 669 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,479 Speaker 1: if we get Jane Daniels healthy and ready to go, 670 00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,560 Speaker 1: and I think if he's near practicing every day, then 671 00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,680 Speaker 1: I think we get him for this one. So they 672 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,720 Speaker 1: played already. Giants probably should have won, but they didn't 673 00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:25,760 Speaker 1: have a kicker, remember that one. But they didn't win, 674 00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,040 Speaker 1: and the Commanders still covered even in that spot and 675 00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:29,440 Speaker 1: had a lot of reasons that they could have won 676 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 1: by more. Also, the giants sins aren't getting worse. They 677 00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 1: have the worst offensive line in the league. I don't 678 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,000 Speaker 1: think they can take advantage of Washington's defense. Even though 679 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:41,960 Speaker 1: it's not great offensive line. Washington buried in my rankings 680 00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:43,720 Speaker 1: at the start of the year. Their line has been 681 00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: so good. Their line has been one of the most 682 00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:49,960 Speaker 1: improved surprising nits in the league. Sam Cosme, Nick allenc ready, 683 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 1: Tyler Biadasch, the interior, that line especially, they went out 684 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:55,840 Speaker 1: and just signed a bunch of random dudes basically, and 685 00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:57,560 Speaker 1: I did not like it. I thought they were just 686 00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 1: raising the floor somehow, maybeys, maybe it's defensive line coach. 687 00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,360 Speaker 1: Somehow it's working. And this unit has been I think 688 00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 1: a top ten offensive line, and I had them as 689 00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:08,560 Speaker 1: a bottom five coming to the season. I think that's 690 00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:10,600 Speaker 1: a huge part of why they're playing that well. And 691 00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 1: I mentioned those three names. That's the interior line, Dexter Lawrence, 692 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,520 Speaker 1: that's the guy we got to protect against. I think 693 00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,400 Speaker 1: they can hold up against Dexter Lawrence and that defensive front. 694 00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:24,200 Speaker 1: So Giants they play this Monday Night, we're taking the under. 695 00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:28,680 Speaker 1: Short week for them, physical Monday night against the Steelers. 696 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:30,840 Speaker 1: You never love to have that on a short week. 697 00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:33,800 Speaker 1: Hopefully get Jane Daniels back. I think this gets past 698 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:36,240 Speaker 1: the key number. I asked her to keep betting against 699 00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,800 Speaker 1: the Giants Commanders minus two and a half. 700 00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:41,240 Speaker 2: And who knows what they end up doing with the 701 00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 2: Giants with their quarterback situation by that point too, right. 702 00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,800 Speaker 1: Right, And I consider that I honestly don't even know 703 00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,080 Speaker 1: if that necessarily moves the needle a lot for me. 704 00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:52,400 Speaker 1: I'm not sure Drew Locke is either an upgrade or 705 00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,200 Speaker 1: a downgrade. I'm not sure it necessarily changes a lot there. 706 00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 1: I guess I'd prefer to avoid it for this pick, 707 00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:00,600 Speaker 1: just because you never know, like the little that the 708 00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:04,720 Speaker 1: new quarterback might give you. But if we're getting under 709 00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,000 Speaker 1: a field goal and I get Jane Daniels, we have 710 00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,080 Speaker 1: a team that's leaning the division right now and playing 711 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 1: pretty well. I've expressed some skepticism on this team. I 712 00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,640 Speaker 1: think long term it's not a team I'm investing in, 713 00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,319 Speaker 1: but I invest against the Giants every week. We gotta 714 00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:17,640 Speaker 1: do that. 715 00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:19,200 Speaker 3: Okay, very good Brandon. 716 00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,879 Speaker 2: That concludes Week eight Best Bets here on the Action 717 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,640 Speaker 2: Network podcast Don't Forget again to follow Brandon Anderson in 718 00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,360 Speaker 2: the free award winning Action Network app to see his picks, 719 00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,640 Speaker 2: not just for this week, but futures, Awards, etc. The 720 00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,120 Speaker 2: mid season look at the awards market. He has a 721 00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:36,920 Speaker 2: rite up there at Action Network actionnetwork dot Com. Be 722 00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,560 Speaker 2: sure to check out the Action Network discord server to 723 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:42,040 Speaker 2: chop it up with our fellow Action. 724 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:43,960 Speaker 3: Network colleagues as well as some of your friends. 725 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,239 Speaker 2: The link to the discord is in the description of 726 00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,080 Speaker 2: this podcast. Also, we gave betting preview from Stucky and 727 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,840 Speaker 2: Rave on the Sunday six pack is available to you now. 728 00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,360 Speaker 2: We'll be together again for the Recap pod on Sunday 729 00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,880 Speaker 2: night to recap week eight for Brandon Anderson, Brandan Glashan. 730 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,480 Speaker 3: Thanks for tuning in to the Action Network podcast. We'll 731 00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:03,200 Speaker 3: talk to you next time. 732 00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:23,160 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 733 00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:25,960 Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 734 00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:29,120 Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler