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Speaker 1: all right time for an instant reaction. I got to
Speaker 1: be honest, I've already sent Justin Herbert a text. I've
Speaker 1: poured one tonight just for this. Thirty four to twenty
Speaker 1: seven chargers went, whoever won. I was happy, although I
Speaker 1: did pick the charger, so I'm a little happier, you know.
Speaker 1: I've said this is when I started the volume. One
Speaker 1: of the things I really really like. When I was
Speaker 1: in my twenties and thirties, I was probably just too
Speaker 1: selfish to help anybody else. I was into my thing,
Speaker 1: and I didn't you know, I was unmarried. And then
Speaker 1: you get older and older, and you have kids, and
Speaker 1: you get married, and you know, over time, you know,
Speaker 1: hopefully you have something in you that you want to
Speaker 1: see others succeed. And I love seeing young quarterbacks in
Speaker 1: the NFL get the right coach, and Bonix could have gotten,
Speaker 1: you know, countless coaches that couldn't help him. And he's
Speaker 1: still he is still learning. But in that first half,
Speaker 1: that was all on script, those first two or three series,
Speaker 1: and bo Nix was great because he's now got his mentor,
Speaker 1: he's got his kingpin, he's got Sean Payton. Now the
Speaker 1: second half it's not on script. That's about talent, and
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert took over. Herbert's more talented, bigger, stronger. He's
Speaker 1: just a more talented, experienced quarterback. In the NFL, but
Speaker 1: both of these guys, these two teams last year were
Speaker 1: thirteen and twenty one. I mean, think about that, and
Speaker 1: right now they're eighteen and twelve and both are going
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. One got a coach and one
Speaker 1: Sean Payton got a quarterback. And this tonight was a
Speaker 1: PSA for the league. You get the right coach, you
Speaker 1: get the right quarterback, you can turn it around in
Speaker 1: one season. It doesn't even matter in the NBA if
Speaker 1: you land Giannis or Jokic. It takes years and years
Speaker 1: to build up to be viable in Major League Baseball.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's just some teams that can afford it, right.
Speaker 1: But in the NFL, Houston was a laughing stock, a
Speaker 1: bottom three team in the league to meet O'Ryan c J.
Speaker 1: Stroud playoffs. The Chargers last year, I think by the
Speaker 1: end of the year they had a team mutiny. They
Speaker 1: were one of the three worst teams in the league.
Speaker 1: This defense is all the same guys now. The offense
Speaker 1: got Joel and Laddi mcconkee, no question upgrades, but they're
Speaker 1: so beat up. Now they're using a defensive tackle. Are
Speaker 1: the Chargers as one of their skill people, Matt Locke,
Speaker 1: give me a break. They're using return guys and Quinton
Speaker 1: Johnson still can't catch. I mean, this is the second
Speaker 1: half is you know, Joel and Laddi McConkie have obviously helped,
Speaker 1: but the Chargers are so beat up on the back
Speaker 1: end of their defense, and they're beat up at tight end.
Speaker 1: They didn't have Will Disley. You know, they don't have JK. Dobbins,
Speaker 1: and you know it's there's still a draft away. They're
Speaker 1: about six players away. They needed to tight end another
Speaker 1: running back, although Gus Edwards had a great, huge run
Speaker 1: of the game. But it just shows you why the
Speaker 1: NFL is king. You just either get a coach, get
Speaker 1: a quarterback, or Houston get both and you're a playoff team.
Speaker 1: And it's just I've always called the NFL the League
Speaker 1: of hope. But let's first start with the Chargers. They
Speaker 1: were What did al Michaels say tonight? I can't believe
Speaker 1: al Michaels is this good at eighty. The guy is
Speaker 1: such a talented guy. Al Michaels is still funny and quick,
Speaker 1: and he and Herb Street sound like they like each other.
Speaker 1: Al Michaels is so good at eighty years old, is insane.
Speaker 1: He just signed for next year, by the way, but
Speaker 1: you know that he had said at one point the
Speaker 1: Chargers were like, oh, for their last eleven and games
Speaker 1: decided by three points or less, they just don't know
Speaker 1: how to win, you know, they just they just don't
Speaker 1: know how to win. And they take this team at
Speaker 1: the end of last year, it was a disaster at
Speaker 1: the end of the year, could have been the worst
Speaker 1: team in the league. Same guys on defense, and in fact,
Speaker 1: half the defensive guys in the back end are hurt.
Speaker 1: Derwin James is healthy in carrying them, but they're all
Speaker 1: banged up, and look at them. And it was such
Speaker 1: a testament to Harbaugh's coaching because, I mean, Harbaugh and
Speaker 1: Herbert tonight won the game. Harbaugh's halftime adjustments and Jesse
Speaker 1: Minter and then Herbert in the second half scrambling on
Speaker 1: a bad ankle for a first down, that throw for
Speaker 1: a touchdown in the end zone, moving to his left,
Speaker 1: throwing it off his bad foot. It was just a
Speaker 1: Herbert Harbaugh second half of just great coaching, smart adjustments,
Speaker 1: Herbert doing what he's doing, It's just it makes me
Speaker 1: really happy. I feel really bad for Caleb Williams. None
Speaker 1: of it is his fault. I just feel bad for
Speaker 1: the kid. And maybe it's because in my life I've
Speaker 1: had really you know, I've been very fortunate that I've
Speaker 1: landed at good spaces, especially early in my career when
Speaker 1: I didn't know what the hell I was doing. It's
Speaker 1: just so important. I tell my kids this all the time.
Speaker 1: It's not just about you. You're gonna hopefully find somebody
Speaker 1: that can mentor you cares about your well being and
Speaker 1: you know, in the job market, and they will make
Speaker 1: the best out of you. And I feel like that's
Speaker 1: what Jim Harbaugh is doing to Herbert, and that's what
Speaker 1: Sean Payton's doing to bow Nicks. Both teams are a
Speaker 1: draft away, right, but Denver didn't have a ton of depth.
Speaker 1: The Chargers need more weapons and a couple of corners.
Speaker 1: But in the end of the half sequence was so
Speaker 1: perfectly Harbaugh. He's competing to the very end. I mean,
Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh's competing to the very end. And some people
Speaker 1: say he's weird. He's intense Okay, it's the NFL. Belichick
Speaker 1: was intense, Dan Campbell's intense, John Payton's intense. So end
Speaker 1: of the first half, you know, they get that field goal,
Speaker 1: and that's just Harball battling to the end. So there's
Speaker 1: a big difference between going in down what they would
Speaker 1: have been and then the field goal. You got a
Speaker 1: real football game, and trailing eight at half feels a
Speaker 1: lot different than trailing by twelve. And I mean that
Speaker 1: kind of momentum into the locker room, change the energy
Speaker 1: and the juice, and I thought Denver had all the
Speaker 1: juice in the first half and the Chargers had all
Speaker 1: of the juice with that field goal going into intermission
Speaker 1: in the second half, and the Chargers outscored the Broncos
Speaker 1: twenty four to six once Hardball called that timeout end
Speaker 1: of the first half and got the free kick before halftime,
Speaker 1: twenty four to six. Just battling and fighting to the
Speaker 1: very end. Herbert in the second half, by the way, Jesus,
Speaker 1: and he again he is working with return guys, a
Speaker 1: first round receiver that can't catch a defensive lineman. Back
Speaker 1: up running back Herbert in the second half eleven fifteen,
Speaker 1: two touchdowns, passer reigning of one forty two point eight Jesus.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just, it is just I just isn't
Speaker 1: it crazy? Is that? You know Sean Payton takes this
Speaker 1: shipwreck Denver. I think I like their GM, but it's
Speaker 1: a mess. They're in dead cap hell in the AFC.
Speaker 1: And before the season started, Vegas had them at five
Speaker 1: and a half wins, and I thought that, I said
Speaker 1: it was my favorite double wind total. I thought they
Speaker 1: would double that. I thought they'd get in kind of
Speaker 1: the nine eight nine category. They're gonna make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: They're in with nine wins now, and they'll they'll win
Speaker 1: one of their final three games, and I think they're
Speaker 1: capable of winning a playoff game. I don't think Denver's
Speaker 1: capable of winning two or three, but I think they're
Speaker 1: capable of winning a playoff game. I feel the same
Speaker 1: way about the Chargers. They kind of have to win
Speaker 1: one way. You know, They've got to have Herbert be superman.
Speaker 1: They've got to have everybody healthy. Pittsburgh's got this feel. Pittsburgh,
Speaker 1: Denver and the Chargers those are one playoff win teams.
Speaker 1: Herbert finishes the night about when is it twenty three
Speaker 1: to thirty one, three hundred yards. It is. It's just
Speaker 1: you know, remember a couple of years ago and the media,
Speaker 1: you know, the media went through a weird thing where
Speaker 1: it was very sensitive. And I remember about three or
Speaker 1: four years ago, and the media was just saying, Oh,
Speaker 1: these Thursday night games, they're unfair to players. Oh, give
Speaker 1: me a break. So I called players, I talked to coaches,
Speaker 1: and the players I talked to are like, we love
Speaker 1: Thursday night games. Usually it's a division rival, so you
Speaker 1: don't have to do a ton of film study. Like tonight,
Speaker 1: you're playing somebody you know, and it's usually a division game,
Speaker 1: so the travel isn't too long. It's a two hour
Speaker 1: flight somewhere, and you don't hit during that week, and
Speaker 1: then you get almost a second by week. And the
Speaker 1: media was freaking out about Thursday night games. We've had
Speaker 1: some sensational Thursday night games. Tonight was sensational. I thought
Speaker 1: it would be much sloppier. I thought Denver was so
Speaker 1: crisp in the first half. Now in the second half, Denver,
Speaker 1: I mean, let's face it, they aided the Chargers on
Speaker 1: that long drive. They had a couple of guys off
Speaker 1: sides that was a huge break. There were two big
Speaker 1: moments in the game for me. That the end of
Speaker 1: the halftime kick, and then Denver had a series of
Speaker 1: penalties as the Chargers got that big drive which eventually
Speaker 1: ended up with Herbert making that throw for a touchdown
Speaker 1: in the end zone. But they have three or four
Speaker 1: defensive penalties and that really gave them. They really seized
Speaker 1: momentum and you could hear the crowd a little bit
Speaker 1: getting into it, and God, that was just fun. Although
Speaker 1: my phone drank, it's probably justin Herbert. I'm sorry to
Speaker 1: be obnoxious. Can I be happy? Chad Milman's coming on
Speaker 1: for Sharper Square. We're gonna do some college games this
Speaker 1: week because I think there's a couple of I have
Speaker 1: two college games. I'm betting that I love. Okay, So
Speaker 1: a big topic of conversation before I get the Chad
Speaker 1: Milman has been the NBA ratings this week, and I
Speaker 1: saw JJ Reddick said tonight, you know the league needs
Speaker 1: to be celebrated. No, the NBA needs to be audited.
Speaker 1: Don't blame the fans because the ratings are down. If
Speaker 1: you own a restaurant and people aren't buying certain items
Speaker 1: on the menu, change the menu. The audience is right,
Speaker 1: The consumer's right. The NBA is celebrated too much. The
Speaker 1: players are pampered and coddled and not called out enough.
Speaker 1: I mean good. Hell. Adam Silver two years ago said
Speaker 1: our players are miserable. Twitter is making the miserable. Can
Speaker 1: you imagine a football player saying that, give me a break.
Speaker 1: The league is celebrated constantly. It needs to be audited,
Speaker 1: It needs to be held accountable. Load management's crap. The
Speaker 1: three point shooting is gross. In fact, did you notice
Speaker 1: who talked about the three point shooting? Lebron James was
Speaker 1: asked about the All Star game changes and he dropped
Speaker 1: an F bomb and said, here's what I notice. Teams
Speaker 1: are shooting way too many threes. Lebron James said that
Speaker 1: a guy that loves the game. Joe Mizzoula, the coach
Speaker 1: of the Celtics, was asked this week about the ratings
Speaker 1: and he said, yeah, I don't watch our game either.
Speaker 1: So that's the championship coach and the best player in
Speaker 1: the last twenty years criticizing the league from a position
Speaker 1: of power, not seeking attention. In fact, Lebron didn't want
Speaker 1: to go into it. He kept saying, I don't want
Speaker 1: to get too into it. So the people that are
Speaker 1: criticizing the NBA are not bringing a hatchet. They're not
Speaker 1: anti this or pro nostalgia. When your stuff isn't selling,
Speaker 1: change the menu. Rob Manfred did, and Adam Silver needs
Speaker 1: to for the record, when you make changes to your
Speaker 1: menu to your business, the consumer always responds. Always. I mean,
Speaker 1: baseball was in a fifteen year drought. Rob Manfred made
Speaker 1: two changes. The ratings went up the last two years.
Speaker 1: This year they went through the roof during the postseason.
Speaker 1: People want to watch sports. I want to watch the NBA.
Speaker 1: I tried watching the championship NBA Cup Oklahoma City was
Speaker 1: five to thirty two from threes. It was awful. It
Speaker 1: was unwatchable. It was drack. So you know, nobody's against
Speaker 1: the NBA. People at criticize it, watch it. I watch
Speaker 1: it all the time. I don't really get into it
Speaker 1: until the football season's done.
Speaker 2: But you know, by.
Speaker 1: February, you know, you have the two weeks before the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. I start watching thirty minutes a night, forty
Speaker 1: minutes a night. So I thought it was in interesting
Speaker 1: that Joe Missoula and Lebron James both came out and
Speaker 1: were critical esthetically of the current product. It's not a
Speaker 1: good watch and when something falls off the cliff in
Speaker 1: two years, three years, got a look in the mirror.
Speaker 1: It's not about celebrating, it's about auditing. That's something baseball
Speaker 1: did recently and something the NFL does annually. NFL is
Speaker 1: king for a lot of reasons. One of the reasons
Speaker 1: the ability to self police, self monitor and course correct. Well,
Speaker 1: it's the most wonderful time of the year forgetting in
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Speaker 1: All right for Sharper Square my buddy Chad Millman, co
Speaker 1: host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings. You
Speaker 1: know listen. The college football games this weekend won't get
Speaker 1: the NFL numbers because nothing in the world does. But
Speaker 1: there's some heaters, and we'll get to that in about
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes. There's some fascinating games. I mean, I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: it doesn't make any sense because he's been so good.
Speaker 1: But if Ryan Day loses home to Tennessee, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be a shit storm in Columbus. It's gonna be crazy.
Speaker 1: So we'll get to that in fifteen minutes. Let's do
Speaker 1: Sharper Square. I've had a terrible year. I've had my
Speaker 1: worst year ever doing this, and I don't really know.
Speaker 1: I don't want to outthink the room. I'm about fifty
Speaker 1: five percent every year. I'm not a pro gambler, but
Speaker 1: I think I'm, you know, in the ballpark. I've been
Speaker 1: terrible this year, and I can't you know. I think
Speaker 1: a lot of it is I've always liked value and underdogs,
Speaker 1: and it just weeked to week. Some weeks I go dogs,
Speaker 1: favorites win, some week I go favorites. So I'm just
Speaker 1: going to give you my thought on this. The Chiefs
Speaker 1: are now three and a half point favorites. It's more
Speaker 1: stay away now, But when it was two and a
Speaker 1: half with Carson Wentz potentially playing, I love Kansas City.
Speaker 1: I think Carson Wentz for a week is fine for
Speaker 1: a season. You can't trust his health. So I would
Speaker 1: imagine at three and a half, the Sharps like the Texans.
Speaker 1: But if so, I like the two and a half,
Speaker 1: them three Kansas City. Now if I say I like
Speaker 1: Kansas City, is it square?
Speaker 3: Totally square? Yeah?
Speaker 4: The wise guys are playing the three and a half
Speaker 4: because up until last weekend, anytime you're betting on Patrick
Speaker 4: Mahomes as a more than three point favorite, you're making
Speaker 4: a negative ROI bet he just has not won as
Speaker 4: a favorite of more than three. Last weekend, obviously he did.
Speaker 4: They were four and a half point favorites.
Speaker 3: They covered.
Speaker 4: But even in that game, you saw the pressure getting
Speaker 4: to Mahomes consistently. You saw them lose the Browns because
Speaker 4: Jameis Winston had two interceptions in the end zone that
Speaker 4: were from in the Chiefs end zone from about his
Speaker 4: thirty yard line, so killing two drafts. Plus they had
Speaker 4: three other turnovers, including to open the game. You look
Speaker 4: at that game, the defense gave up seven points, right,
Speaker 4: and so that game was closer statistically than you would
Speaker 4: imagine by the score itself. So there is going to
Speaker 4: be a sentiment you take the Texans at plus three
Speaker 4: and a half.
Speaker 3: At two and a.
Speaker 4: Half, one hundred percent people were still taking the Chiefs.
Speaker 4: That's why the number got all the way up to
Speaker 4: three and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So a prime example, the Steelers get beat and
Speaker 1: pretty soundy by Philadelphia. But what's lost in that game
Speaker 1: is they had eighty yards in the first half and
Speaker 1: only trailed seventeen thirteen in Philly. If Najee Harris doesn't fumble,
Speaker 1: we got ourselves a football game. Yes, to give the
Speaker 1: Steelers six and a half ate, You know what the
Speaker 1: Ravens are. They got They're the Mike Tyson. They crossed
Speaker 1: their bullies first round knockouts against bad teams. You push
Speaker 1: them back, you make them think Baltimore can get beat
Speaker 1: by a lot of good teams. Pittsburgh pushes back. Tomlin
Speaker 1: is a six and a half point underdog. So I
Speaker 1: this to me is the steal of the week. Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: plus six and a half in Baltimore sharper square.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Wise, guys love this bet, and it's almost become a
Speaker 4: blind bet in this series. Wise guys like Mike Tomlin
Speaker 4: as an underdog. Anyways, and you're right that game, Najee Harris.
Speaker 4: The Steelers were outplayed and in the middle of the
Speaker 4: third time in the.
Speaker 3: Game, fumble the ball.
Speaker 4: If he doesn't fumble the ball, they're on the sixteen
Speaker 4: yard line. They're at least kicking a field goal to
Speaker 4: make it a twenty sixteen game, or they're scoring a
Speaker 4: touchdown to make it twenty twenty.
Speaker 3: Changes the game, right.
Speaker 4: Mike Tomlin, Mike Tomlin and Rob Ross spots any way
Speaker 4: you slice and dice it. Mike Tomlin as an underdog
Speaker 4: is the best coaching a generation against the spread. He
Speaker 4: is be coach in a generation winning straight up as
Speaker 4: an underdog in this series, specifically as a dog of
Speaker 4: three or more versus the Ravens, he is six and
Speaker 4: oh straight up. There is six and oh against the spread.
Speaker 4: He's thirteen two and two against spread versus Harbaugh when
Speaker 4: the line in this series is three or more points
Speaker 4: the past twenty years, so it's the Harbaugh Tomlin rain.
Speaker 4: The underdog is twenty three four and three against the
Speaker 4: spread since twenty fifteen, underdogs sixteen into sixteen to two
Speaker 4: and one against the spread. So like, yeah that there
Speaker 4: are times where you're nervous about playing into these trends
Speaker 4: and We talked about this on the show last week,
Speaker 4: betting the Steelers fading the Chiefs. Those were times we
Speaker 4: were nervous, like it happens six times out of ten.
Speaker 4: This time it's happening eight times out of ten. So yeah,
Speaker 4: you're playing the Steelers.
Speaker 1: I like the forty nine or plus one at the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: I think one of the things that's become pretty clear
Speaker 1: with the Dolphins is if they're not playing an oppressive
Speaker 1: humidity at home, they get pushed around by more physical teams.
Speaker 1: I think they're the ultimate finesse team in this league.
Speaker 1: And you know, as I watch them against Houston, it's
Speaker 1: just bubble screens. That's all they do. Two is now
Speaker 1: throwing forty times a game. That's way too much for
Speaker 1: two of the teams, like the Packers and the Eagles
Speaker 1: have scaled back with more talented quarterbacks to throw twenty
Speaker 1: four times a game. I think the forty nine Ers,
Speaker 1: I think it comes down to pride. For brock Purty,
Speaker 1: it comes down to a contract. I like the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers here sharper square.
Speaker 4: Sharp ish, like the line opened one and a half.
Speaker 4: It's been beat down obviously from one and a half
Speaker 4: to one for a minute, very hot minute, the Niners
Speaker 4: were favorites, and then it sort of bounced back a
Speaker 4: little bit. But that money that's moving, it is professional
Speaker 4: money in favor of the Niners.
Speaker 3: Not a huge sort of feeling on that game.
Speaker 4: They just sort of think that the Niners are probably
Speaker 4: a more physical team.
Speaker 3: Are they getting more healthy? They don't.
Speaker 4: They don't believe in the Dolphins is the bigger, bigger
Speaker 4: component of their thinking.
Speaker 1: Okay, the Colts were dominating the Broncos until Jonathan Taylor,
Speaker 1: and it was a blowout. They go home now and
Speaker 1: have to swallow three and a half. But the Titans
Speaker 1: are they have Benchwill Levis. I was texting a GM
Speaker 1: this week and I said, I think if you gave
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold to the Colts, they have the Viking season.
Speaker 1: I like their personnel. I mean, I haven't seen anybody
Speaker 1: this year, including the Chiefs, push the Broncos around, especially
Speaker 1: in Denver. I mean it was a mismatch. Three picks
Speaker 1: for bo Nicks. I think Indy, I don't care what
Speaker 1: the line is. I think they're going to come back.
Speaker 1: I think they're I think Chris Spallard's jobs on the line.
Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson's careers on the line. Shane Stikeen with that
Speaker 1: trick play that got a pick six, I think Indy
Speaker 1: is inflamed and I think they blow the Titans out
Speaker 1: sharper square.
Speaker 4: So the wise guys are on Tennessee. This line was
Speaker 4: at four and a half even when Will Levis was
Speaker 4: possibly the quarterback. It's been bet down immediately with Mason
Speaker 4: Rudolph as the quarterback. The wise guys have liked the
Speaker 4: Titans a lot this year. They've also liked the Colts
Speaker 4: this year. Their biggest fear is betting Anthony Richardson right
Speaker 4: as a favorite. Like if you want to talk about comps,
Speaker 4: the comps for Anthony Richardson and his completion percentage right now,
Speaker 4: Tim Tebow and Achille Smith in the past twenty five years,
Speaker 4: this season will go down as one of the worst
Speaker 4: in completion percentage because of how badly Anthony Richardson is playing.
Speaker 4: And I think there was a sentiment after he was benched,
Speaker 4: he came back and he looked like he was a
Speaker 4: little bit more in control. They were putting him in
Speaker 4: better positions. He was just awful against the Broncos. They
Speaker 4: were winning that game in spite of him and look
Speaker 4: like I was on the Colts last week. Jonathan Taylor
Speaker 4: dropping that ball was gut wrenching. I was on the
Speaker 4: Steelers last week, Nigee Harris dropping that ball, and this
Speaker 4: was all happening. If you're watching Red Zone, this is
Speaker 4: like boom boom boom. It was just like gut punch
Speaker 4: after gut punch after gut punch. As a better but
Speaker 4: you felt like and I felt like Colts had no
Speaker 4: chance to get back into that game after they gave
Speaker 4: up the lead because Anthony and Richardson can't win you
Speaker 4: a game, so they're going to have to dominate on
Speaker 4: the ground in order to cover this three and a half.
Speaker 4: And at the end of the day, he got to
Speaker 4: win by four points. That's a relatively big number and
Speaker 4: of what should be a run heavy game in which
Speaker 4: the clock is running a lot. So I think the
Speaker 4: wise guys are still liking Tennessee.
Speaker 3: In the hook.
Speaker 1: Part of me says, I should love the Bears at
Speaker 1: home plus six and a half against Detroit Jared Goff
Speaker 1: outside bad Weather, I defended Caleb Williams this week. He
Speaker 1: has more touchdown passes than Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray
Speaker 1: more passing yards than Jalen Hurts and hasn't had an
Speaker 1: interception since Halloween. Is that if you just look at
Speaker 1: the record, you would think he's awful, and it's like, no, actually,
Speaker 1: all things considered now that he's with the third coach
Speaker 1: at home Detroit, defensively, I mean it's bad.
Speaker 3: It is.
Speaker 1: I mean eight nine yards a chunk. I think I
Speaker 1: like Chicago at home plus six and a half sharper square.
Speaker 4: Well, look, the wise guys like Chicago at home when
Speaker 4: it was at seven and a half and seven, and
Speaker 4: this is one hundred percent a number play. You're not
Speaker 4: going to find anyone taking it at six and a half.
Speaker 4: If you're taking it at six and a half, We've
Speaker 4: talked about this, you're just not getting the best of
Speaker 4: the number. And long term, that's a bad way to
Speaker 4: try to win games. You might win once in a while,
Speaker 4: but long term you want to be on the right
Speaker 4: side of the number. So the wise guys took the
Speaker 4: seven and a half, they took the seven. I think
Speaker 4: this is a really tricky game at six and a half.
Speaker 4: Is a home dog in the division, of course, I
Speaker 4: want to be on the Bears. I can't find a
Speaker 4: way to get there. I'm not saying I'm going to
Speaker 4: bet Detroit, but there's two schools of thought on Jared Goff.
Speaker 4: Jared Goff outside is terrible. Jared Goff indoors is unbeatable.
Speaker 4: Obviously that happened last week, so it's a hyperbole. But
Speaker 4: he tends to cover when he is indoors, tends to
Speaker 4: not when he is outside, and he is a covering
Speaker 4: machine over the past five years. I look at this
Speaker 4: in a different way. Sure their defense is beat up,
Speaker 4: but all they have to do is hand the ball
Speaker 4: to Jamiir Gibbs, because this Bears rush defense is just atrocious,
Speaker 4: like Putrid. They are giving up one hundred yards every
Speaker 4: single game no matter who they play. Saw it again
Speaker 4: last week against Minnesota. So I do worry that Detroit
Speaker 4: is going to come out in a bad mood and
Speaker 4: try to prove that they're still the class of the NFC.
Speaker 4: Run the ball down the Bear's throat, and it doesn't
Speaker 4: really matter what Kayleb Williams does or what the weather is,
Speaker 4: they might dominate this game. So I can't I can't
Speaker 4: tell you at six and a half, you're making a
Speaker 4: good call.
Speaker 1: Okay, Rams is now only minus three. I would take
Speaker 1: them against the Jets. It was three and a half.
Speaker 1: I think the Jets played the last two weeks. DeVante
Speaker 1: Adams and Aaron Rodgers, you know, have clicked. But the
Speaker 1: Rams are playing for the playoffs and the Jets are
Speaker 1: playing for pride. I mean, between the documentary between Garrett
Speaker 1: Wilson wanting a trade the story about Woody Johnson's kids,
Speaker 1: this has been a messy week for the Jets. I
Speaker 1: can gladly swallow the three for a much better team
Speaker 1: and a much more functional offense. Rams minus three sharper square.
Speaker 4: I mean, why look, wise guys have been on the
Speaker 4: Jets all week. The wise guys have been on the
Speaker 4: Jets for much of the year, and, much to their dismay,
Speaker 4: jeff Olbrick, the coach, seems to find ways to play
Speaker 4: them out of wins and covers and then make the
Speaker 4: stupidest mistakes that actually leads them into a cover that
Speaker 4: they never should have covered. Right last week, he's going
Speaker 4: for the touchdown with a minute left when the Jacks
Speaker 4: have two timeouts. They end up covering the three point spread,
Speaker 4: winning by six, when really he should have kneeled down
Speaker 4: and left no time and kicked a field goal week before,
Speaker 4: make bad decisions at the end of the game. They
Speaker 4: end up losing the game to the Dolphins and not
Speaker 4: even covering the three point spread because they lose by
Speaker 4: six in overtime. So he's a menace when it comes
Speaker 4: to clock management, and he's a menace for betters. But
Speaker 4: the wise guys do love the Jets right now. Aaron
Speaker 4: Rodgers has been playing significantly better the past two weeks.
Speaker 4: You could argue, well, the old man went to Florida,
Speaker 4: and when you're old and you're in Florida, you're gonna
Speaker 4: feel better. And now he's got to come back and
Speaker 4: play in the cold in New Jersey. But there is
Speaker 4: something about the Rams and the fact that they have
Speaker 4: to go into the cold too. Stafford does not perform
Speaker 4: as well then. And also, this is a team you
Speaker 4: get late in the year. You get teams that are
Speaker 4: what I like to call good ish, right fifty to
Speaker 4: sixty percent in terms of winning percentage, and they're playing
Speaker 4: bad teams on the road. That is a recipe for
Speaker 4: disaster in terms of covering the spread. Not saying they're
Speaker 4: going to lose, but those games tend to be closer.
Speaker 4: So the wise guys are definitely back of the Jets
Speaker 4: this week.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm not prone to do this, but green Bay
Speaker 1: minus fourteen against the Saints just screams Take the Packers.
Speaker 1: I thought their win at Seattle was so impressive because
Speaker 1: I do think Seattle has excellent defensive coaching. This has
Speaker 1: been a year of the favorites. I think the most
Speaker 1: underrated player in the league is Jordan Love. I think
Speaker 1: he's a magnificent talent. I think the Saints feel like
Speaker 1: a dead franchise. I think green Bay still has a chance.
Speaker 1: They really believe it. I think they're a better team
Speaker 1: this morning or this afternoon than Detroit. I don't like
Speaker 1: fourteen point favorites, but they're covering, and favorites are covering,
Speaker 1: and I feel like I've got a ascending, young, healthy
Speaker 1: team against the dead franchise. I think Green Bay is
Speaker 1: one of the few places where home field is still
Speaker 1: three to three and a half points. Sharper square.
Speaker 4: Well, look, you're never gonna get sharp confirmation on a
Speaker 4: fourteen point favorite. There are two fourteen point favorites this week,
Speaker 4: the Packers over the Saints, the Bills over the Patriots.
Speaker 4: There's been more of the conversation around the Bills as
Speaker 4: fourteen point favorites. That line actually ticked up to fourteen
Speaker 4: and a half, and that was very much professionals betting
Speaker 4: on the Bills at fourteen. Then it came down then
Speaker 4: to some professionals, not a whole lot of them, but
Speaker 4: a couple of them were like, yeah, that's what, like
Speaker 4: half a point too far? The Packers like, sure, there's
Speaker 4: nobody who's thinking they want to bet on the Saints,
Speaker 4: but there's not a rush to the window on the Packers.
Speaker 3: Everything you just said, everyone agrees with it. It's why.
Speaker 4: Actually, the wise guys were on the Packers last week
Speaker 4: against the Seahawks. That was my favorite. Yeah, yeah, mine too.
Speaker 4: So you only bet I won last week and so
Speaker 4: they were on him at two and a half. That
Speaker 4: was a great spot for the Packers, right, They had
Speaker 4: just lost a really hard game to the Lions, and
Speaker 4: I think that game gave them the confidence that you
Speaker 4: just talked about. You saw the mastery with which Lafour
Speaker 4: calls a game. Jordan Love has been much more cautious
Speaker 4: with the ball, hasn't been throwing interceptions. I think the
Speaker 4: Packers believe they are in the same class as the
Speaker 4: Vikings and the Lions and the Eagles, and I'd be
Speaker 4: hard pressed to disagree. I think it's harder to win
Speaker 4: as two touchdown favorites against a Saints team that like
Speaker 4: from a wise guy perspective, they just don't like this
Speaker 4: game as much as they would like the Bills and
Speaker 4: the Patriots. And I can tell you why they like
Speaker 4: the Bills against the Patriots if that would be interesting
Speaker 4: to you.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Please.
Speaker 3: So this is the win Josh Allen MVP game. Right.
Speaker 4: There's talk this week because Lamar Jackson threw five touchdowns
Speaker 4: against the Giants that maybe he should be MVP, and
Speaker 4: you saw the MVP odds shrink a little bit. The
Speaker 4: Bills tend to blow these teams out anyways, right, they
Speaker 4: are a team that has a winning record as big
Speaker 4: favorites in these games in the division outside the division
Speaker 4: at home, they they don't play down to the level
Speaker 4: of their competition. Their offense can do whatever it wants
Speaker 4: against the Patriots. If the Patriots are down early, their
Speaker 4: record against the spread it's like seven and twenty one
Speaker 4: the past two years, like they are a terrible team.
Speaker 4: They cannot recover. So If the Bills get out to
Speaker 4: lead early, which they tend to do, it's a great spot.
Speaker 4: The one concern is, you know, the Bill's secondary has
Speaker 4: a lot of injuries, but there's really no concerns about
Speaker 4: the Patriots offense. They got Drake may who's slinging it
Speaker 4: and trying his best. But right now Gerrod Mayo was
Speaker 4: throwing Alex Van Pelt under the bus about their offense.
Speaker 4: There's just a lot of turmoil there. So the wise guys,
Speaker 4: if they're betting a big favorite, they're more inclined to
Speaker 4: bet the Bills than the Packers.
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Speaker 1: All right, I want to talk some college football now
Speaker 1: because I think I do think Indiana Notre Dame a
Speaker 1: lot of its weather. I think it's going to be
Speaker 1: pretty close. I think Notre Dame is a great run team.
Speaker 1: Indiana is a kind of a peculiar unique run defense.
Speaker 1: I think really good coaches with time can employ, you know,
Speaker 1: competitive strategies. We know that Ohio State in Columbus on
Speaker 1: a nice day to play football is better significantly. Notre
Speaker 1: Dame doesn't have Ohio State's talent, and I also think
Speaker 1: Indiana now has extra time to prepare. I think Notre
Speaker 1: Dame has a ceiling offensively, whereas Ohio State doesn't. They
Speaker 1: just played down to their competition. Notre Dame has a ceiling,
Speaker 1: and I think Indiana is going to So I really
Speaker 1: like Indiana plus seven. How do the wise guys view it?
Speaker 4: Yeah, look the numbers come down because wise guys are
Speaker 4: betting Indiana and Indiana's look.
Speaker 3: Been a covering machine this year.
Speaker 4: Yes, obviously that Ohio State game was the biggest challenge.
Speaker 4: They also didn't cover against Michigan, but that was at
Speaker 4: a time when Michigan was starting to get better. And
Speaker 4: the next week they went on and they beat Ohio State.
Speaker 4: So that was a much more physical game. Ohio State.
Speaker 4: Indiana had some bad plays and they were outclassed, and
Speaker 4: you could see the talent difference.
Speaker 3: I'm with you. The wise guys are with you, and the way.
Speaker 4: Indiana matches up a little bit better with Notre Dame
Speaker 4: and the time and look, you can't help but listen
Speaker 4: to Kurt Signetti and know that he's playing this game
Speaker 4: and has got his players playing this game with a
Speaker 4: huge chip on their shoulder.
Speaker 3: And we've talked about this.
Speaker 4: One of the reasons Indiana won this year and why
Speaker 4: it was able to achieve when other teams that are
Speaker 4: leaning into the portal weren't able to achieve, is because
Speaker 4: they brought in grown up college football players. They didn't
Speaker 4: bring in five star recruits who are going to be
Speaker 4: there for a year and go to the NFL. They
Speaker 4: bought it guys who are just really good at college football.
Speaker 4: And this is a great college football game. And there
Speaker 4: is a nuanced difference when I say a college football game. Here,
Speaker 4: that's the style of game this is going to be.
Speaker 4: It's going to be physical, it's going to be about execution.
Speaker 4: It's going to be about not necessarily the best athletes,
Speaker 4: but the people who do their jobs the best, So
Speaker 4: I love this game for Indiana.
Speaker 1: I like the under on Clemson Texas, mostly not because
Speaker 1: Texas is going to score a ton. I don't think
Speaker 1: Clemson can score much on Texas. I'm gonna take Texas
Speaker 1: minus twelve. I really feel it has a chance to
Speaker 1: be thirty to ten. I think the Texas defense is sensational,
Speaker 1: and I think the Clemson offense it's almost like that
Speaker 1: SMU game felt like their bowl game. I think both
Speaker 1: SMU and Clemson are going to get totally outclassed in
Speaker 1: their bowl games. I like the under, but I'm going
Speaker 1: to take Texas minus twelve. I think this Remember Clemson
Speaker 1: doesn't go to the transfer portal, they have ols app,
Speaker 1: Texas out recruits them and goes to the transfer portal.
Speaker 1: And also Texas's offense over the last three weeks, I
Speaker 1: don't think they'll pause. If quin your struggles, I think
Speaker 1: they'll go to Arts Manning. I don't think they'll pause
Speaker 1: going forward. I like Texas to roll here, sharper square.
Speaker 4: Totally sharp, like if you're looking I'm looking in the
Speaker 4: action app right now. It's just checking it out and
Speaker 4: you can see in the app you can see the
Speaker 4: betting tickets, and you can see the money percentages on
Speaker 4: each side, and betting tickets is usually an indication of
Speaker 4: the public. That's the squares who are betting ten dollars
Speaker 4: twenty dollars, and there's a lot of volume of tickets.
Speaker 4: Money usually represents where the wise guys are. So the
Speaker 4: tickets right now are on Clemson, the money is on Texas,
Speaker 4: And I agree with you, and the wise guys agree
Speaker 4: with you. That defense they have is just fear like
Speaker 4: they did a job on Georgia. And if Texas's offense
Speaker 4: could execute a little bit better, then we wouldn't be
Speaker 4: having this conversation about who's the who is the SEC
Speaker 4: champion would have been Texas. So like, that defense is
Speaker 4: so freaking good, and it's a veteran defense. Again, we're
Speaker 4: talking about like guys who had been playing college football
Speaker 4: for a while, and I think that's an advantage here.
Speaker 1: So the game, I'm gonna ask you to handicap. I
Speaker 1: don't get the line. So the line is telling me
Speaker 1: Ohio State's gonna win because it hasn't moved much. So
Speaker 1: Tennessee's defensive line is significantly better than Ohio State's offensive line,
Speaker 1: meaning Ohio State's gonna have to throw and it may
Speaker 1: only be fifteen degrees, but this line is telling me
Speaker 1: that out after that Michigan loss, Ohio State has pissed
Speaker 1: and Ryan Day's jobs on the line line and Josh
Speaker 1: Heipels isn't and it's in Columbus and it is a
Speaker 1: warm weather SEC team. So the line is telling me
Speaker 1: that Ohio State's going to win this comfortably. That's what
Speaker 1: it's telling me. Otherwise, when it came out seven and
Speaker 1: a half, the Sharps would have jumped all over this.
Speaker 1: I mean, Tennessee is the best rushing team in the SEC.
Speaker 1: Going into cold weather. It just screams to you, low scoring,
Speaker 1: take the points. But the line's not moving, and that
Speaker 1: tells me the Sharps like Ohio State, do they.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I mean, look, it's settled in where it's at, right,
Speaker 4: and that is because it's been It's kind of the
Speaker 4: advantages is not for Tennessee because of some of these
Speaker 4: situations that you just talked about, And there is some
Speaker 4: feeling that this is such a desperate spot for Ryan Day.
Speaker 4: It's been seven and a half almost since it opened.
Speaker 4: It was at six and a half for about thirty seconds.
Speaker 4: These guys took the six and a half. They bet
Speaker 4: Tennessee at six and a half, right, But there was
Speaker 4: so much other sentiment coming in on Ohio State that
Speaker 4: it moved up. So Ryan Day is in a spot.
Speaker 4: And we've talked about this. There was a story in
Speaker 4: the Wall Street Journal today about Ohio State fans people
Speaker 4: calling in to local radio about Max Crosby, who the Lions,
Speaker 4: the Raiders defensive lineman who's out for the year. On
Speaker 4: his podcast, he's a massive Ohio State fan, talking about how.
Speaker 3: He wants the team to lose so they get rid
Speaker 3: of Ryan Day.
Speaker 4: That is a weird thing to be talking about when
Speaker 4: you've got a coach who has.
Speaker 3: Won as much as he has.
Speaker 4: But I think you and I agree every game for
Speaker 4: him is going to be a must win game. And
Speaker 4: unless they win the championship or they get there and
Speaker 4: they are so dominant, and he puts himself in a
Speaker 4: position even if they lose, it's a way to rebuild
Speaker 4: the goodwill. It's a Michigan or bust program. And he
Speaker 4: hasn't beaten him and they haven't gotten over it.
Speaker 1: You know. I think sometimes one of the things I
Speaker 1: love about sports is when there's cultural changes. I like
Speaker 1: to be I like to predict what they are. I
Speaker 1: love the theories and my systems on like what's changing.
Speaker 1: So something's happening in college football, and college football fans
Speaker 1: don't yet know it. So in the NFL, it's almost
Speaker 1: understood that you've got to give a staff a couple
Speaker 1: of years, right, Like, there's just it's just really hard.
Speaker 1: The margins are thin. Well, I think the Ohio States
Speaker 1: and the Georgia's and the Texas fans, you know, you've
Speaker 1: always been able to line up and just beat teams.
Speaker 1: And one of the reasons is over a long season
Speaker 1: is your backups were as good as their starters. And
Speaker 1: football's regulated level levels of violence. So there's college and pro.
Speaker 1: There's injuries, but the transfer portal and NIL has eliminated
Speaker 1: depth at the blue bloods Georgia, Texas, Clemson. So when
Speaker 1: you do suffer injuries and the season is now longer
Speaker 1: than ever, your backups are produced starters, that's all they are.
Speaker 1: And so these Ohio States and these big Notre Dame,
Speaker 1: these big traditional powers, as the season goes on, I mean,
Speaker 1: look at look at our twelve team playoff. Arizona States
Speaker 1: in it, SMUs in it, Boise States in it like,
Speaker 1: and these these are live dogs like and so I
Speaker 1: don't think quite college football fans understand. Not only are
Speaker 1: players getting paid that it looks more like pro football,
Speaker 1: but your backup stink just like pro football. Detroit's defense
Speaker 1: now has six backups. It's terrible. A month ago it
Speaker 1: was excellent. And so what and what creates that the
Speaker 1: salary cap? You have bad backups in the NFL? Nobody
Speaker 1: has depth in the NFL. You eat it like Philadelphia's
Speaker 1: got great frontline starters. AJ Brown's out. It's not the
Speaker 1: same offense. Right, Saquon Barkley's out, it's not the same offense.
Speaker 1: We've almost understood that in pro football you need your starters.
Speaker 1: And when you get injury plagued Buffalo Detroit's defense, you're like,
Speaker 1: what the hell's going on? Well, everybody knows you don't
Speaker 1: have good college That was never the point. Top ten
Speaker 1: teams just had better backups. I mean, eighty five scholarships
Speaker 1: allows you to have four pro offensive tackles. If you're
Speaker 1: Ohio State, now they have two. One gets hurt, you
Speaker 1: move a guard to left tackle. They're all lime stakes
Speaker 1: it's Iowa at best.
Speaker 4: So you're you're totally right. That's an on the field problem.
Speaker 4: But culturally, for fandom, yeah, the beauty of college football,
Speaker 4: it's always been Michigan Ohio State rivalry weekend. You know,
Speaker 4: Alabama Tennessee or Alabama Auburn. You know these games they
Speaker 4: had so much meaning because there was a lot on
Speaker 4: the line.
Speaker 3: You couldn't lose that game.
Speaker 4: I think what Ohio State is struggling with and what
Speaker 4: a lot of schools will struggle with in the future,
Speaker 4: is you focus so much on that one rivalry game
Speaker 4: and that's all you care about. Because college football has
Speaker 4: always been so provincial. Now it's a national game. The
Speaker 4: SEC is spread out all over, The Big Ten is
Speaker 4: literally nationwide. These are the only two conferences that really
Speaker 4: kind of matter. And so the provincial, local rivalries that
Speaker 4: college fan bases have built their mindset on, have built
Speaker 4: their self worth on, have built.
Speaker 3: Their fandom on.
Speaker 4: They need to move on from those really meeting anything
Speaker 4: because they kind of don't. If Io State loses to
Speaker 4: Michigan for the next ten years, but they win the
Speaker 4: national title in five of those years, is that going
Speaker 4: to be better or worse as a fan. They need
Speaker 4: to come to grips with a new reality of what
Speaker 4: these rivalry games mean in terms of the broader picture,
Speaker 4: because they used to mean everything.
Speaker 3: It wasn't just about beating Michigan.
Speaker 4: It was about beating Michigan and what it meant for
Speaker 4: winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl,
Speaker 4: or what it meant for winning the Big Ten and
Speaker 4: then being in the College Football Playoff or winning the
Speaker 4: BCS and getting a better rating.
Speaker 3: Those things don't matter anymore.
Speaker 4: So the rivalries and the expectations for what these rivalries
Speaker 4: mean need to be adjusted. I also think it's just
Speaker 4: going to diminish the value of those games for fans.
Speaker 4: My kid, he's going to be in college next year.
Speaker 4: He's gotten into Indiana, he got into Penn State, wherever
Speaker 4: he decides to go. Are the rivalries for those schools
Speaker 4: going to mean as much to him twenty years from
Speaker 4: now as they do to me and my friends who
Speaker 4: also went to Indiana.
Speaker 3: Probably not.
Speaker 1: Do you have an NFL bet this weekend that you
Speaker 1: would label your favorite.
Speaker 4: Well, look, I middled Kansas City. I bet Kansas City
Speaker 4: plus two and a half on Sunday night, and then no,
Speaker 4: it was plus two and a half on Monday morning.
Speaker 4: I'm sorry when the news about what was happening with
Speaker 4: Holmes was still unclear. The Chiefs were two and a
Speaker 4: half point underdogs, so I bet them two and a half.
Speaker 4: And then when it became clear that he was going
Speaker 4: to be playing. This was yesterday afternoon, the game got
Speaker 4: up to three and a half. I bet the Texans
Speaker 4: at plus three and a half, So the majority of
Speaker 4: my money is trying to get that middle right. But
Speaker 4: I also bet the Jets three and a half. That's
Speaker 4: one that I like. I really like the Steelers at
Speaker 4: six and a half. So if I like, I'll put
Speaker 4: in my five favorite picks. The Steelers will be in there.
Speaker 4: The Jets will definitely be in there. Dallas I bet
Speaker 4: at four and a half. I like Dallas a lot
Speaker 4: against Tampa. I think there's a lot of inflation this week,
Speaker 4: and I think that's one of the bigger games where
Speaker 4: Dallas has been playing better. Like the last three weeks,
Speaker 4: last four weeks, that Cincinnati game kind of looks like
Speaker 4: a fluke, right. They lost that game, They've won the
Speaker 4: three other games. Micah Parsons has seven and a half
Speaker 4: sacks since he's back Deron Bland is back in the secondary.
Speaker 4: That defense is getting a lot better. Cooper Rush at
Speaker 4: Home Controlled Environment. Tampa Bay just put up forty on
Speaker 4: the chargers that inflated that line a little bit.
Speaker 1: So.
Speaker 3: Dallas is another one that I'm I'm paying attention to.
Speaker 1: Chad Millman Sharper Square.
Speaker 3: I love it, buddy, Great to chat with your buddy.
Speaker 1: The volume