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Speaker 1: unexpected accident in your life. This is a paid advertisement

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Speaker 1: all right time for an instant reaction. I got to

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Speaker 1: be honest, I've already sent Justin Herbert a text. I've

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Speaker 1: poured one tonight just for this. Thirty four to twenty

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Speaker 1: seven chargers went, whoever won. I was happy, although I

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Speaker 1: did pick the charger, so I'm a little happier, you know.

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Speaker 1: I've said this is when I started the volume. One

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Speaker 1: of the things I really really like. When I was

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Speaker 1: in my twenties and thirties, I was probably just too

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Speaker 1: selfish to help anybody else. I was into my thing,

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Speaker 1: and I didn't you know, I was unmarried. And then

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Speaker 1: you get older and older, and you have kids, and

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Speaker 1: you get married, and you know, over time, you know,

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Speaker 1: hopefully you have something in you that you want to

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Speaker 1: see others succeed. And I love seeing young quarterbacks in

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Speaker 1: the NFL get the right coach, and Bonix could have gotten,

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Speaker 1: you know, countless coaches that couldn't help him. And he's

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Speaker 1: still he is still learning. But in that first half,

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Speaker 1: that was all on script, those first two or three series,

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Speaker 1: and bo Nix was great because he's now got his mentor,

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Speaker 1: he's got his kingpin, he's got Sean Payton. Now the

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Speaker 1: second half it's not on script. That's about talent, and

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Speaker 1: Justin Herbert took over. Herbert's more talented, bigger, stronger. He's

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Speaker 1: just a more talented, experienced quarterback. In the NFL, but

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Speaker 1: both of these guys, these two teams last year were

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Speaker 1: thirteen and twenty one. I mean, think about that, and

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Speaker 1: right now they're eighteen and twelve and both are going

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Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. One got a coach and one

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Speaker 1: Sean Payton got a quarterback. And this tonight was a

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Speaker 1: PSA for the league. You get the right coach, you

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Speaker 1: get the right quarterback, you can turn it around in

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Speaker 1: one season. It doesn't even matter in the NBA if

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Speaker 1: you land Giannis or Jokic. It takes years and years

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Speaker 1: to build up to be viable in Major League Baseball.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's just some teams that can afford it, right.

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Speaker 1: But in the NFL, Houston was a laughing stock, a

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Speaker 1: bottom three team in the league to meet O'Ryan c J.

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Speaker 1: Stroud playoffs. The Chargers last year, I think by the

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Speaker 1: end of the year they had a team mutiny. They

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Speaker 1: were one of the three worst teams in the league.

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Speaker 1: This defense is all the same guys now. The offense

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Speaker 1: got Joel and Laddi mcconkee, no question upgrades, but they're

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Speaker 1: so beat up. Now they're using a defensive tackle. Are

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Speaker 1: the Chargers as one of their skill people, Matt Locke,

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Speaker 1: give me a break. They're using return guys and Quinton

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Speaker 1: Johnson still can't catch. I mean, this is the second

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Speaker 1: half is you know, Joel and Laddi McConkie have obviously helped,

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Speaker 1: but the Chargers are so beat up on the back

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Speaker 1: end of their defense, and they're beat up at tight end.

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Speaker 1: They didn't have Will Disley. You know, they don't have JK. Dobbins,

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Speaker 1: and you know it's there's still a draft away. They're

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Speaker 1: about six players away. They needed to tight end another

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Speaker 1: running back, although Gus Edwards had a great, huge run

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Speaker 1: of the game. But it just shows you why the

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Speaker 1: NFL is king. You just either get a coach, get

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Speaker 1: a quarterback, or Houston get both and you're a playoff team.

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Speaker 1: And it's just I've always called the NFL the League

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Speaker 1: of hope. But let's first start with the Chargers. They

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Speaker 1: were What did al Michaels say tonight? I can't believe

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Speaker 1: al Michaels is this good at eighty. The guy is

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Speaker 1: such a talented guy. Al Michaels is still funny and quick,

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Speaker 1: and he and Herb Street sound like they like each other.

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Speaker 1: Al Michaels is so good at eighty years old, is insane.

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Speaker 1: He just signed for next year, by the way, but

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Speaker 1: you know that he had said at one point the

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Speaker 1: Chargers were like, oh, for their last eleven and games

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Speaker 1: decided by three points or less, they just don't know

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Speaker 1: how to win, you know, they just they just don't

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Speaker 1: know how to win. And they take this team at

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Speaker 1: the end of last year, it was a disaster at

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Speaker 1: the end of the year, could have been the worst

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Speaker 1: team in the league. Same guys on defense, and in fact,

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Speaker 1: half the defensive guys in the back end are hurt.

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Speaker 1: Derwin James is healthy in carrying them, but they're all

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Speaker 1: banged up, and look at them. And it was such

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Speaker 1: a testament to Harbaugh's coaching because, I mean, Harbaugh and

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Speaker 1: Herbert tonight won the game. Harbaugh's halftime adjustments and Jesse

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Speaker 1: Minter and then Herbert in the second half scrambling on

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Speaker 1: a bad ankle for a first down, that throw for

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Speaker 1: a touchdown in the end zone, moving to his left,

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Speaker 1: throwing it off his bad foot. It was just a

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Speaker 1: Herbert Harbaugh second half of just great coaching, smart adjustments,

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Speaker 1: Herbert doing what he's doing, It's just it makes me

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Speaker 1: really happy. I feel really bad for Caleb Williams. None

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Speaker 1: of it is his fault. I just feel bad for

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Speaker 1: the kid. And maybe it's because in my life I've

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Speaker 1: had really you know, I've been very fortunate that I've

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Speaker 1: landed at good spaces, especially early in my career when

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Speaker 1: I didn't know what the hell I was doing. It's

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Speaker 1: just so important. I tell my kids this all the time.

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Speaker 1: It's not just about you. You're gonna hopefully find somebody

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Speaker 1: that can mentor you cares about your well being and

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Speaker 1: you know, in the job market, and they will make

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Speaker 1: the best out of you. And I feel like that's

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Speaker 1: what Jim Harbaugh is doing to Herbert, and that's what

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Speaker 1: Sean Payton's doing to bow Nicks. Both teams are a

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Speaker 1: draft away, right, but Denver didn't have a ton of depth.

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Speaker 1: The Chargers need more weapons and a couple of corners.

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Speaker 1: But in the end of the half sequence was so

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Speaker 1: perfectly Harbaugh. He's competing to the very end. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh's competing to the very end. And some people

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Speaker 1: say he's weird. He's intense Okay, it's the NFL. Belichick

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Speaker 1: was intense, Dan Campbell's intense, John Payton's intense. So end

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Speaker 1: of the first half, you know, they get that field goal,

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Speaker 1: and that's just Harball battling to the end. So there's

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Speaker 1: a big difference between going in down what they would

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Speaker 1: have been and then the field goal. You got a

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Speaker 1: real football game, and trailing eight at half feels a

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Speaker 1: lot different than trailing by twelve. And I mean that

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Speaker 1: kind of momentum into the locker room, change the energy

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Speaker 1: and the juice, and I thought Denver had all the

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Speaker 1: juice in the first half and the Chargers had all

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Speaker 1: of the juice with that field goal going into intermission

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Speaker 1: in the second half, and the Chargers outscored the Broncos

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Speaker 1: twenty four to six once Hardball called that timeout end

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Speaker 1: of the first half and got the free kick before halftime,

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Speaker 1: twenty four to six. Just battling and fighting to the

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Speaker 1: very end. Herbert in the second half, by the way, Jesus,

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Speaker 1: and he again he is working with return guys, a

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Speaker 1: first round receiver that can't catch a defensive lineman. Back

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Speaker 1: up running back Herbert in the second half eleven fifteen,

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Speaker 1: two touchdowns, passer reigning of one forty two point eight Jesus.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's just, it is just I just isn't

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Speaker 1: it crazy? Is that? You know Sean Payton takes this

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Speaker 1: shipwreck Denver. I think I like their GM, but it's

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Speaker 1: a mess. They're in dead cap hell in the AFC.

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Speaker 1: And before the season started, Vegas had them at five

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Speaker 1: and a half wins, and I thought that, I said

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Speaker 1: it was my favorite double wind total. I thought they

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Speaker 1: would double that. I thought they'd get in kind of

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Speaker 1: the nine eight nine category. They're gonna make the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: They're in with nine wins now, and they'll they'll win

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Speaker 1: one of their final three games, and I think they're

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Speaker 1: capable of winning a playoff game. I don't think Denver's

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Speaker 1: capable of winning two or three, but I think they're

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Speaker 1: capable of winning a playoff game. I feel the same

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Speaker 1: way about the Chargers. They kind of have to win

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Speaker 1: one way. You know, They've got to have Herbert be superman.

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Speaker 1: They've got to have everybody healthy. Pittsburgh's got this feel. Pittsburgh,

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Speaker 1: Denver and the Chargers those are one playoff win teams.

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Speaker 1: Herbert finishes the night about when is it twenty three

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Speaker 1: to thirty one, three hundred yards. It is. It's just

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Speaker 1: you know, remember a couple of years ago and the media,

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Speaker 1: you know, the media went through a weird thing where

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Speaker 1: it was very sensitive. And I remember about three or

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Speaker 1: four years ago, and the media was just saying, Oh,

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Speaker 1: these Thursday night games, they're unfair to players. Oh, give

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Speaker 1: me a break. So I called players, I talked to coaches,

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Speaker 1: and the players I talked to are like, we love

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Speaker 1: Thursday night games. Usually it's a division rival, so you

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Speaker 1: don't have to do a ton of film study. Like tonight,

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Speaker 1: you're playing somebody you know, and it's usually a division game,

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Speaker 1: so the travel isn't too long. It's a two hour

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Speaker 1: flight somewhere, and you don't hit during that week, and

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Speaker 1: then you get almost a second by week. And the

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Speaker 1: media was freaking out about Thursday night games. We've had

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Speaker 1: some sensational Thursday night games. Tonight was sensational. I thought

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Speaker 1: it would be much sloppier. I thought Denver was so

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Speaker 1: crisp in the first half. Now in the second half, Denver,

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Speaker 1: I mean, let's face it, they aided the Chargers on

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Speaker 1: that long drive. They had a couple of guys off

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Speaker 1: sides that was a huge break. There were two big

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Speaker 1: moments in the game for me. That the end of

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Speaker 1: the halftime kick, and then Denver had a series of

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Speaker 1: penalties as the Chargers got that big drive which eventually

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Speaker 1: ended up with Herbert making that throw for a touchdown

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Speaker 1: in the end zone. But they have three or four

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Speaker 1: defensive penalties and that really gave them. They really seized

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Speaker 1: momentum and you could hear the crowd a little bit

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Speaker 1: getting into it, and God, that was just fun. Although

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Speaker 1: my phone drank, it's probably justin Herbert. I'm sorry to

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Speaker 1: be obnoxious. Can I be happy? Chad Milman's coming on

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Speaker 1: for Sharper Square. We're gonna do some college games this

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Speaker 1: week because I think there's a couple of I have

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Speaker 1: two college games. I'm betting that I love. Okay, So

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Speaker 1: a big topic of conversation before I get the Chad

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Speaker 1: Milman has been the NBA ratings this week, and I

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Speaker 1: saw JJ Reddick said tonight, you know the league needs

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Speaker 1: to be celebrated. No, the NBA needs to be audited.

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Speaker 1: Don't blame the fans because the ratings are down. If

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Speaker 1: you own a restaurant and people aren't buying certain items

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Speaker 1: on the menu, change the menu. The audience is right,

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Speaker 1: The consumer's right. The NBA is celebrated too much. The

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Speaker 1: players are pampered and coddled and not called out enough.

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Speaker 1: I mean good. Hell. Adam Silver two years ago said

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Speaker 1: our players are miserable. Twitter is making the miserable. Can

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Speaker 1: you imagine a football player saying that, give me a break.

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Speaker 1: The league is celebrated constantly. It needs to be audited,

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Speaker 1: It needs to be held accountable. Load management's crap. The

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Speaker 1: three point shooting is gross. In fact, did you notice

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Speaker 1: who talked about the three point shooting? Lebron James was

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Speaker 1: asked about the All Star game changes and he dropped

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Speaker 1: an F bomb and said, here's what I notice. Teams

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Speaker 1: are shooting way too many threes. Lebron James said that

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Speaker 1: a guy that loves the game. Joe Mizzoula, the coach

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Speaker 1: of the Celtics, was asked this week about the ratings

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Speaker 1: and he said, yeah, I don't watch our game either.

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Speaker 1: So that's the championship coach and the best player in

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Speaker 1: the last twenty years criticizing the league from a position

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Speaker 1: of power, not seeking attention. In fact, Lebron didn't want

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Speaker 1: to go into it. He kept saying, I don't want

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Speaker 1: to get too into it. So the people that are

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Speaker 1: criticizing the NBA are not bringing a hatchet. They're not

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Speaker 1: anti this or pro nostalgia. When your stuff isn't selling,

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Speaker 1: change the menu. Rob Manfred did, and Adam Silver needs

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Speaker 1: to for the record, when you make changes to your

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Speaker 1: menu to your business, the consumer always responds. Always. I mean,

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Speaker 1: baseball was in a fifteen year drought. Rob Manfred made

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Speaker 1: two changes. The ratings went up the last two years.

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Speaker 1: This year they went through the roof during the postseason.

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Speaker 1: People want to watch sports. I want to watch the NBA.

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Speaker 1: I tried watching the championship NBA Cup Oklahoma City was

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Speaker 1: five to thirty two from threes. It was awful. It

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Speaker 1: was unwatchable. It was drack. So you know, nobody's against

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Speaker 1: the NBA. People at criticize it, watch it. I watch

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Speaker 1: it all the time. I don't really get into it

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Speaker 1: until the football season's done.

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Speaker 2: But you know, by.

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Speaker 1: February, you know, you have the two weeks before the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. I start watching thirty minutes a night, forty

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Speaker 1: minutes a night. So I thought it was in interesting

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Speaker 1: that Joe Missoula and Lebron James both came out and

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Speaker 1: were critical esthetically of the current product. It's not a

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Speaker 1: good watch and when something falls off the cliff in

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Speaker 1: two years, three years, got a look in the mirror.

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Speaker 1: It's not about celebrating, it's about auditing. That's something baseball

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Speaker 1: did recently and something the NFL does annually. NFL is

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Speaker 1: king for a lot of reasons. One of the reasons

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Speaker 1: the ability to self police, self monitor and course correct. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's the most wonderful time of the year forgetting in

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Speaker 1: All right for Sharper Square my buddy Chad Millman, co

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Speaker 1: host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings. You

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Speaker 1: know listen. The college football games this weekend won't get

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Speaker 1: the NFL numbers because nothing in the world does. But

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Speaker 1: there's some heaters, and we'll get to that in about

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Speaker 1: fifteen minutes. There's some fascinating games. I mean, I'm sorry,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't make any sense because he's been so good.

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Speaker 1: But if Ryan Day loses home to Tennessee, it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a shit storm in Columbus. It's gonna be crazy.

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Speaker 1: So we'll get to that in fifteen minutes. Let's do

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Speaker 1: Sharper Square. I've had a terrible year. I've had my

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Speaker 1: worst year ever doing this, and I don't really know.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to outthink the room. I'm about fifty

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Speaker 1: five percent every year. I'm not a pro gambler, but

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Speaker 1: I think I'm, you know, in the ballpark. I've been

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Speaker 1: terrible this year, and I can't you know. I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of it is I've always liked value and underdogs,

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Speaker 1: and it just weeked to week. Some weeks I go dogs,

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Speaker 1: favorites win, some week I go favorites. So I'm just

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Speaker 1: going to give you my thought on this. The Chiefs

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Speaker 1: are now three and a half point favorites. It's more

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Speaker 1: stay away now, But when it was two and a

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Speaker 1: half with Carson Wentz potentially playing, I love Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: I think Carson Wentz for a week is fine for

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Speaker 1: a season. You can't trust his health. So I would

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Speaker 1: imagine at three and a half, the Sharps like the Texans.

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Speaker 1: But if so, I like the two and a half,

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Speaker 1: them three Kansas City. Now if I say I like

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Speaker 1: Kansas City, is it square?

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Speaker 3: Totally square? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: The wise guys are playing the three and a half

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Speaker 4: because up until last weekend, anytime you're betting on Patrick

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Speaker 4: Mahomes as a more than three point favorite, you're making

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Speaker 4: a negative ROI bet he just has not won as

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Speaker 4: a favorite of more than three. Last weekend, obviously he did.

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Speaker 4: They were four and a half point favorites.

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Speaker 3: They covered.

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Speaker 4: But even in that game, you saw the pressure getting

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Speaker 4: to Mahomes consistently. You saw them lose the Browns because

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Speaker 4: Jameis Winston had two interceptions in the end zone that

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Speaker 4: were from in the Chiefs end zone from about his

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Speaker 4: thirty yard line, so killing two drafts. Plus they had

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Speaker 4: three other turnovers, including to open the game. You look

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Speaker 4: at that game, the defense gave up seven points, right,

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Speaker 4: and so that game was closer statistically than you would

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Speaker 4: imagine by the score itself. So there is going to

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Speaker 4: be a sentiment you take the Texans at plus three

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Speaker 4: and a half.

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Speaker 3: At two and a.

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Speaker 4: Half, one hundred percent people were still taking the Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: That's why the number got all the way up to

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Speaker 4: three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So a prime example, the Steelers get beat and

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Speaker 1: pretty soundy by Philadelphia. But what's lost in that game

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Speaker 1: is they had eighty yards in the first half and

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Speaker 1: only trailed seventeen thirteen in Philly. If Najee Harris doesn't fumble,

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Speaker 1: we got ourselves a football game. Yes, to give the

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Speaker 1: Steelers six and a half ate, You know what the

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Speaker 1: Ravens are. They got They're the Mike Tyson. They crossed

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Speaker 1: their bullies first round knockouts against bad teams. You push

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Speaker 1: them back, you make them think Baltimore can get beat

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Speaker 1: by a lot of good teams. Pittsburgh pushes back. Tomlin

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Speaker 1: is a six and a half point underdog. So I

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Speaker 1: this to me is the steal of the week. Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: plus six and a half in Baltimore sharper square.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Wise, guys love this bet, and it's almost become a

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Speaker 4: blind bet in this series. Wise guys like Mike Tomlin

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Speaker 4: as an underdog. Anyways, and you're right that game, Najee Harris.

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Speaker 4: The Steelers were outplayed and in the middle of the

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Speaker 4: third time in the.

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Speaker 3: Game, fumble the ball.

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Speaker 4: If he doesn't fumble the ball, they're on the sixteen

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Speaker 4: yard line. They're at least kicking a field goal to

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Speaker 4: make it a twenty sixteen game, or they're scoring a

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Speaker 4: touchdown to make it twenty twenty.

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Speaker 3: Changes the game, right.

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Speaker 4: Mike Tomlin, Mike Tomlin and Rob Ross spots any way

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Speaker 4: you slice and dice it. Mike Tomlin as an underdog

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Speaker 4: is the best coaching a generation against the spread. He

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Speaker 4: is be coach in a generation winning straight up as

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Speaker 4: an underdog in this series, specifically as a dog of

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Speaker 4: three or more versus the Ravens, he is six and

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Speaker 4: oh straight up. There is six and oh against the spread.

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Speaker 4: He's thirteen two and two against spread versus Harbaugh when

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Speaker 4: the line in this series is three or more points

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Speaker 4: the past twenty years, so it's the Harbaugh Tomlin rain.

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Speaker 4: The underdog is twenty three four and three against the

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Speaker 4: spread since twenty fifteen, underdogs sixteen into sixteen to two

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Speaker 4: and one against the spread. So like, yeah that there

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Speaker 4: are times where you're nervous about playing into these trends

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Speaker 4: and We talked about this on the show last week,

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Speaker 4: betting the Steelers fading the Chiefs. Those were times we

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Speaker 4: were nervous, like it happens six times out of ten.

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Speaker 4: This time it's happening eight times out of ten. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: you're playing the Steelers.

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Speaker 1: I like the forty nine or plus one at the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: I think one of the things that's become pretty clear

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Speaker 1: with the Dolphins is if they're not playing an oppressive

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Speaker 1: humidity at home, they get pushed around by more physical teams.

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Speaker 1: I think they're the ultimate finesse team in this league.

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Speaker 1: And you know, as I watch them against Houston, it's

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Speaker 1: just bubble screens. That's all they do. Two is now

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Speaker 1: throwing forty times a game. That's way too much for

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Speaker 1: two of the teams, like the Packers and the Eagles

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Speaker 1: have scaled back with more talented quarterbacks to throw twenty

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Speaker 1: four times a game. I think the forty nine Ers,

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Speaker 1: I think it comes down to pride. For brock Purty,

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Speaker 1: it comes down to a contract. I like the forty

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Speaker 1: nine ers here sharper square.

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Speaker 4: Sharp ish, like the line opened one and a half.

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Speaker 4: It's been beat down obviously from one and a half

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Speaker 4: to one for a minute, very hot minute, the Niners

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00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,359
Speaker 4: were favorites, and then it sort of bounced back a

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Speaker 4: little bit. But that money that's moving, it is professional

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Speaker 4: money in favor of the Niners.

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Speaker 3: Not a huge sort of feeling on that game.

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Speaker 4: They just sort of think that the Niners are probably

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Speaker 4: a more physical team.

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Speaker 3: Are they getting more healthy? They don't.

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Speaker 4: They don't believe in the Dolphins is the bigger, bigger

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Speaker 4: component of their thinking.

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Speaker 1: Okay, the Colts were dominating the Broncos until Jonathan Taylor,

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Speaker 1: and it was a blowout. They go home now and

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Speaker 1: have to swallow three and a half. But the Titans

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Speaker 1: are they have Benchwill Levis. I was texting a GM

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Speaker 1: this week and I said, I think if you gave

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Speaker 1: Sam Darnold to the Colts, they have the Viking season.

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Speaker 1: I like their personnel. I mean, I haven't seen anybody

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Speaker 1: this year, including the Chiefs, push the Broncos around, especially

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Speaker 1: in Denver. I mean it was a mismatch. Three picks

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Speaker 1: for bo Nicks. I think Indy, I don't care what

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Speaker 1: the line is. I think they're going to come back.

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Speaker 1: I think they're I think Chris Spallard's jobs on the line.

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Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson's careers on the line. Shane Stikeen with that

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Speaker 1: trick play that got a pick six, I think Indy

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Speaker 1: is inflamed and I think they blow the Titans out

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Speaker 1: sharper square.

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Speaker 4: So the wise guys are on Tennessee. This line was

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Speaker 4: at four and a half even when Will Levis was

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Speaker 4: possibly the quarterback. It's been bet down immediately with Mason

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Speaker 4: Rudolph as the quarterback. The wise guys have liked the

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Speaker 4: Titans a lot this year. They've also liked the Colts

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Speaker 4: this year. Their biggest fear is betting Anthony Richardson right

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Speaker 4: as a favorite. Like if you want to talk about comps,

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Speaker 4: the comps for Anthony Richardson and his completion percentage right now,

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Speaker 4: Tim Tebow and Achille Smith in the past twenty five years,

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Speaker 4: this season will go down as one of the worst

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Speaker 4: in completion percentage because of how badly Anthony Richardson is playing.

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Speaker 4: And I think there was a sentiment after he was benched,

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Speaker 4: he came back and he looked like he was a

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Speaker 4: little bit more in control. They were putting him in

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Speaker 4: better positions. He was just awful against the Broncos. They

427
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 4: were winning that game in spite of him and look

428
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 4: like I was on the Colts last week. Jonathan Taylor

429
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 4: dropping that ball was gut wrenching. I was on the

430
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 4: Steelers last week, Nigee Harris dropping that ball, and this

431
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 4: was all happening. If you're watching Red Zone, this is

432
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 4: like boom boom boom. It was just like gut punch

433
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 4: after gut punch after gut punch. As a better but

434
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 4: you felt like and I felt like Colts had no

435
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,120
Speaker 4: chance to get back into that game after they gave

436
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 4: up the lead because Anthony and Richardson can't win you

437
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 4: a game, so they're going to have to dominate on

438
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 4: the ground in order to cover this three and a half.

439
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 4: And at the end of the day, he got to

440
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 4: win by four points. That's a relatively big number and

441
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 4: of what should be a run heavy game in which

442
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 4: the clock is running a lot. So I think the

443
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 4: wise guys are still liking Tennessee.

444
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 3: In the hook.

445
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,640
Speaker 1: Part of me says, I should love the Bears at

446
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 1: home plus six and a half against Detroit Jared Goff

447
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: outside bad Weather, I defended Caleb Williams this week. He

448
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: has more touchdown passes than Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray

449
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:28,919
Speaker 1: more passing yards than Jalen Hurts and hasn't had an

450
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 1: interception since Halloween. Is that if you just look at

451
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 1: the record, you would think he's awful, and it's like, no, actually,

452
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 1: all things considered now that he's with the third coach

453
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:44,640
Speaker 1: at home Detroit, defensively, I mean it's bad.

454
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 3: It is.

455
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:51,159
Speaker 1: I mean eight nine yards a chunk. I think I

456
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,199
Speaker 1: like Chicago at home plus six and a half sharper square.

457
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,880
Speaker 4: Well, look, the wise guys like Chicago at home when

458
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 4: it was at seven and a half and seven, and

459
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 4: this is one hundred percent a number play. You're not

460
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 4: going to find anyone taking it at six and a half.

461
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 4: If you're taking it at six and a half, We've

462
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 4: talked about this, you're just not getting the best of

463
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 4: the number. And long term, that's a bad way to

464
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 4: try to win games. You might win once in a while,

465
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 4: but long term you want to be on the right

466
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 4: side of the number. So the wise guys took the

467
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 4: seven and a half, they took the seven. I think

468
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 4: this is a really tricky game at six and a half.

469
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 4: Is a home dog in the division, of course, I

470
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 4: want to be on the Bears. I can't find a

471
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 4: way to get there. I'm not saying I'm going to

472
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 4: bet Detroit, but there's two schools of thought on Jared Goff.

473
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 4: Jared Goff outside is terrible. Jared Goff indoors is unbeatable.

474
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 4: Obviously that happened last week, so it's a hyperbole. But

475
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 4: he tends to cover when he is indoors, tends to

476
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 4: not when he is outside, and he is a covering

477
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:02,199
Speaker 4: machine over the past five years. I look at this

478
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 4: in a different way. Sure their defense is beat up,

479
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 4: but all they have to do is hand the ball

480
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 4: to Jamiir Gibbs, because this Bears rush defense is just atrocious,

481
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:18,120
Speaker 4: like Putrid. They are giving up one hundred yards every

482
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 4: single game no matter who they play. Saw it again

483
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 4: last week against Minnesota. So I do worry that Detroit

484
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 4: is going to come out in a bad mood and

485
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 4: try to prove that they're still the class of the NFC.

486
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 4: Run the ball down the Bear's throat, and it doesn't

487
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,120
Speaker 4: really matter what Kayleb Williams does or what the weather is,

488
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:38,399
Speaker 4: they might dominate this game. So I can't I can't

489
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 4: tell you at six and a half, you're making a

490
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 4: good call.

491
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 1: Okay, Rams is now only minus three. I would take

492
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,120
Speaker 1: them against the Jets. It was three and a half.

493
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 1: I think the Jets played the last two weeks. DeVante

494
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 1: Adams and Aaron Rodgers, you know, have clicked. But the

495
00:26:56,320 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 1: Rams are playing for the playoffs and the Jets are

496
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 1: playing for pride. I mean, between the documentary between Garrett

497
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,919
Speaker 1: Wilson wanting a trade the story about Woody Johnson's kids,

498
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 1: this has been a messy week for the Jets. I

499
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 1: can gladly swallow the three for a much better team

500
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 1: and a much more functional offense. Rams minus three sharper square.

501
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 4: I mean, why look, wise guys have been on the

502
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 4: Jets all week. The wise guys have been on the

503
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 4: Jets for much of the year, and, much to their dismay,

504
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 4: jeff Olbrick, the coach, seems to find ways to play

505
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 4: them out of wins and covers and then make the

506
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 4: stupidest mistakes that actually leads them into a cover that

507
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 4: they never should have covered. Right last week, he's going

508
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 4: for the touchdown with a minute left when the Jacks

509
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,479
Speaker 4: have two timeouts. They end up covering the three point spread,

510
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 4: winning by six, when really he should have kneeled down

511
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,439
Speaker 4: and left no time and kicked a field goal week before,

512
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:01,959
Speaker 4: make bad decisions at the end of the game. They

513
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 4: end up losing the game to the Dolphins and not

514
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,239
Speaker 4: even covering the three point spread because they lose by

515
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 4: six in overtime. So he's a menace when it comes

516
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 4: to clock management, and he's a menace for betters. But

517
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 4: the wise guys do love the Jets right now. Aaron

518
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 4: Rodgers has been playing significantly better the past two weeks.

519
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 4: You could argue, well, the old man went to Florida,

520
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 4: and when you're old and you're in Florida, you're gonna

521
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:26,440
Speaker 4: feel better. And now he's got to come back and

522
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 4: play in the cold in New Jersey. But there is

523
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,959
Speaker 4: something about the Rams and the fact that they have

524
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,439
Speaker 4: to go into the cold too. Stafford does not perform

525
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 4: as well then. And also, this is a team you

526
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 4: get late in the year. You get teams that are

527
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 4: what I like to call good ish, right fifty to

528
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 4: sixty percent in terms of winning percentage, and they're playing

529
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 4: bad teams on the road. That is a recipe for

530
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 4: disaster in terms of covering the spread. Not saying they're

531
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 4: going to lose, but those games tend to be closer.

532
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 4: So the wise guys are definitely back of the Jets

533
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 4: this week.

534
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm not prone to do this, but green Bay

535
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 1: minus fourteen against the Saints just screams Take the Packers.

536
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 1: I thought their win at Seattle was so impressive because

537
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 1: I do think Seattle has excellent defensive coaching. This has

538
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 1: been a year of the favorites. I think the most

539
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 1: underrated player in the league is Jordan Love. I think

540
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 1: he's a magnificent talent. I think the Saints feel like

541
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 1: a dead franchise. I think green Bay still has a chance.

542
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 1: They really believe it. I think they're a better team

543
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 1: this morning or this afternoon than Detroit. I don't like

544
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 1: fourteen point favorites, but they're covering, and favorites are covering,

545
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 1: and I feel like I've got a ascending, young, healthy

546
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 1: team against the dead franchise. I think Green Bay is

547
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: one of the few places where home field is still

548
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 1: three to three and a half points. Sharper square.

549
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 4: Well, look, you're never gonna get sharp confirmation on a

550
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 4: fourteen point favorite. There are two fourteen point favorites this week,

551
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 4: the Packers over the Saints, the Bills over the Patriots.

552
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 4: There's been more of the conversation around the Bills as

553
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 4: fourteen point favorites. That line actually ticked up to fourteen

554
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 4: and a half, and that was very much professionals betting

555
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,239
Speaker 4: on the Bills at fourteen. Then it came down then

556
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 4: to some professionals, not a whole lot of them, but

557
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 4: a couple of them were like, yeah, that's what, like

558
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 4: half a point too far? The Packers like, sure, there's

559
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 4: nobody who's thinking they want to bet on the Saints,

560
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 4: but there's not a rush to the window on the Packers.

561
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 3: Everything you just said, everyone agrees with it. It's why.

562
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:55,719
Speaker 4: Actually, the wise guys were on the Packers last week

563
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 4: against the Seahawks. That was my favorite. Yeah, yeah, mine too.

564
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 4: So you only bet I won last week and so

565
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 4: they were on him at two and a half. That

566
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 4: was a great spot for the Packers, right, They had

567
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 4: just lost a really hard game to the Lions, and

568
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 4: I think that game gave them the confidence that you

569
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 4: just talked about. You saw the mastery with which Lafour

570
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 4: calls a game. Jordan Love has been much more cautious

571
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 4: with the ball, hasn't been throwing interceptions. I think the

572
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 4: Packers believe they are in the same class as the

573
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 4: Vikings and the Lions and the Eagles, and I'd be

574
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 4: hard pressed to disagree. I think it's harder to win

575
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 4: as two touchdown favorites against a Saints team that like

576
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 4: from a wise guy perspective, they just don't like this

577
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 4: game as much as they would like the Bills and

578
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 4: the Patriots. And I can tell you why they like

579
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 4: the Bills against the Patriots if that would be interesting

580
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 4: to you.

581
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 1: Yeah. Please.

582
00:31:55,560 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 3: So this is the win Josh Allen MVP game. Right.

583
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 4: There's talk this week because Lamar Jackson threw five touchdowns

584
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 4: against the Giants that maybe he should be MVP, and

585
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 4: you saw the MVP odds shrink a little bit. The

586
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 4: Bills tend to blow these teams out anyways, right, they

587
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 4: are a team that has a winning record as big

588
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 4: favorites in these games in the division outside the division

589
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 4: at home, they they don't play down to the level

590
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 4: of their competition. Their offense can do whatever it wants

591
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 4: against the Patriots. If the Patriots are down early, their

592
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 4: record against the spread it's like seven and twenty one

593
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 4: the past two years, like they are a terrible team.

594
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 4: They cannot recover. So If the Bills get out to

595
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 4: lead early, which they tend to do, it's a great spot.

596
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 4: The one concern is, you know, the Bill's secondary has

597
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 4: a lot of injuries, but there's really no concerns about

598
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 4: the Patriots offense. They got Drake may who's slinging it

599
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 4: and trying his best. But right now Gerrod Mayo was

600
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 4: throwing Alex Van Pelt under the bus about their offense.

601
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 4: There's just a lot of turmoil there. So the wise guys,

602
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 4: if they're betting a big favorite, they're more inclined to

603
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 4: bet the Bills than the Packers.

604
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 1: All these college football reactions presented by JLab. I'm wearing

605
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 1: my JLab earbudge right now. They're awesome. They have the

606
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Speaker 1: best audio products in the game. They're ready to take

607
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Speaker 1: care of you this football season. Okay, whether you're traveling

608
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: to watch your favorite team play or just streaming the

609
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 1: game at home. Find the Blue Box. That's how I

610
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Speaker 1: first found it at an airport, Logan Airport in Boston.

611
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612
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Speaker 1: or just visit JLab dot com. Their price points really good.

613
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 1: All right, I want to talk some college football now

614
00:33:56,240 --> 00:34:00,040
Speaker 1: because I think I do think Indiana Notre Dame a

615
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 1: lot of its weather. I think it's going to be

616
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 1: pretty close. I think Notre Dame is a great run team.

617
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 1: Indiana is a kind of a peculiar unique run defense.

618
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 1: I think really good coaches with time can employ, you know,

619
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: competitive strategies. We know that Ohio State in Columbus on

620
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 1: a nice day to play football is better significantly. Notre

621
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 1: Dame doesn't have Ohio State's talent, and I also think

622
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 1: Indiana now has extra time to prepare. I think Notre

623
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 1: Dame has a ceiling offensively, whereas Ohio State doesn't. They

624
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 1: just played down to their competition. Notre Dame has a ceiling,

625
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 1: and I think Indiana is going to So I really

626
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 1: like Indiana plus seven. How do the wise guys view it?

627
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, look the numbers come down because wise guys are

628
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 4: betting Indiana and Indiana's look.

629
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:53,359
Speaker 3: Been a covering machine this year.

630
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 4: Yes, obviously that Ohio State game was the biggest challenge.

631
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 4: They also didn't cover against Michigan, but that was at

632
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 4: a time when Michigan was starting to get better. And

633
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 4: the next week they went on and they beat Ohio State.

634
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 4: So that was a much more physical game. Ohio State.

635
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 4: Indiana had some bad plays and they were outclassed, and

636
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 4: you could see the talent difference.

637
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 3: I'm with you. The wise guys are with you, and the way.

638
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:22,360
Speaker 4: Indiana matches up a little bit better with Notre Dame

639
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 4: and the time and look, you can't help but listen

640
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 4: to Kurt Signetti and know that he's playing this game

641
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 4: and has got his players playing this game with a

642
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 4: huge chip on their shoulder.

643
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 3: And we've talked about this.

644
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 4: One of the reasons Indiana won this year and why

645
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 4: it was able to achieve when other teams that are

646
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:49,760
Speaker 4: leaning into the portal weren't able to achieve, is because

647
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:54,839
Speaker 4: they brought in grown up college football players. They didn't

648
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 4: bring in five star recruits who are going to be

649
00:35:57,680 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 4: there for a year and go to the NFL. They

650
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 4: bought it guys who are just really good at college football.

651
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 4: And this is a great college football game. And there

652
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 4: is a nuanced difference when I say a college football game. Here,

653
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 4: that's the style of game this is going to be.

654
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 4: It's going to be physical, it's going to be about execution.

655
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 4: It's going to be about not necessarily the best athletes,

656
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:20,840
Speaker 4: but the people who do their jobs the best, So

657
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 4: I love this game for Indiana.

658
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:26,800
Speaker 1: I like the under on Clemson Texas, mostly not because

659
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 1: Texas is going to score a ton. I don't think

660
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 1: Clemson can score much on Texas. I'm gonna take Texas

661
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 1: minus twelve. I really feel it has a chance to

662
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 1: be thirty to ten. I think the Texas defense is sensational,

663
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 1: and I think the Clemson offense it's almost like that

664
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 1: SMU game felt like their bowl game. I think both

665
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 1: SMU and Clemson are going to get totally outclassed in

666
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 1: their bowl games. I like the under, but I'm going

667
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 1: to take Texas minus twelve. I think this Remember Clemson

668
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 1: doesn't go to the transfer portal, they have ols app,

669
00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 1: Texas out recruits them and goes to the transfer portal.

670
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 1: And also Texas's offense over the last three weeks, I

671
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 1: don't think they'll pause. If quin your struggles, I think

672
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 1: they'll go to Arts Manning. I don't think they'll pause

673
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 1: going forward. I like Texas to roll here, sharper square.

674
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 4: Totally sharp, like if you're looking I'm looking in the

675
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 4: action app right now. It's just checking it out and

676
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 4: you can see in the app you can see the

677
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 4: betting tickets, and you can see the money percentages on

678
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 4: each side, and betting tickets is usually an indication of

679
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 4: the public. That's the squares who are betting ten dollars

680
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 4: twenty dollars, and there's a lot of volume of tickets.

681
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:47,919
Speaker 4: Money usually represents where the wise guys are. So the

682
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 4: tickets right now are on Clemson, the money is on Texas,

683
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 4: And I agree with you, and the wise guys agree

684
00:37:54,960 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 4: with you. That defense they have is just fear like

685
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 4: they did a job on Georgia. And if Texas's offense

686
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:10,320
Speaker 4: could execute a little bit better, then we wouldn't be

687
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 4: having this conversation about who's the who is the SEC

688
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 4: champion would have been Texas. So like, that defense is

689
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 4: so freaking good, and it's a veteran defense. Again, we're

690
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 4: talking about like guys who had been playing college football

691
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 4: for a while, and I think that's an advantage here.

692
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 1: So the game, I'm gonna ask you to handicap. I

693
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 1: don't get the line. So the line is telling me

694
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 1: Ohio State's gonna win because it hasn't moved much. So

695
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 1: Tennessee's defensive line is significantly better than Ohio State's offensive line,

696
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,399
Speaker 1: meaning Ohio State's gonna have to throw and it may

697
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 1: only be fifteen degrees, but this line is telling me

698
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 1: that out after that Michigan loss, Ohio State has pissed

699
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 1: and Ryan Day's jobs on the line line and Josh

700
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:04,360
Speaker 1: Heipels isn't and it's in Columbus and it is a

701
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 1: warm weather SEC team. So the line is telling me

702
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 1: that Ohio State's going to win this comfortably. That's what

703
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 1: it's telling me. Otherwise, when it came out seven and

704
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 1: a half, the Sharps would have jumped all over this.

705
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 1: I mean, Tennessee is the best rushing team in the SEC.

706
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 1: Going into cold weather. It just screams to you, low scoring,

707
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 1: take the points. But the line's not moving, and that

708
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 1: tells me the Sharps like Ohio State, do they.

709
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:32,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I mean, look, it's settled in where it's at, right,

710
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 4: and that is because it's been It's kind of the

711
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 4: advantages is not for Tennessee because of some of these

712
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 4: situations that you just talked about, And there is some

713
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 4: feeling that this is such a desperate spot for Ryan Day.

714
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 4: It's been seven and a half almost since it opened.

715
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 4: It was at six and a half for about thirty seconds.

716
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 4: These guys took the six and a half. They bet

717
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 4: Tennessee at six and a half, right, But there was

718
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 4: so much other sentiment coming in on Ohio State that

719
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 4: it moved up. So Ryan Day is in a spot.

720
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 4: And we've talked about this. There was a story in

721
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 4: the Wall Street Journal today about Ohio State fans people

722
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 4: calling in to local radio about Max Crosby, who the Lions,

723
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 4: the Raiders defensive lineman who's out for the year. On

724
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 4: his podcast, he's a massive Ohio State fan, talking about how.

725
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 3: He wants the team to lose so they get rid

726
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:37,879
Speaker 3: of Ryan Day.

727
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:43,359
Speaker 4: That is a weird thing to be talking about when

728
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 4: you've got a coach who has.

729
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:45,840
Speaker 3: Won as much as he has.

730
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 4: But I think you and I agree every game for

731
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 4: him is going to be a must win game. And

732
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 4: unless they win the championship or they get there and

733
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:57,880
Speaker 4: they are so dominant, and he puts himself in a

734
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 4: position even if they lose, it's a way to rebuild

735
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 4: the goodwill. It's a Michigan or bust program. And he

736
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 4: hasn't beaten him and they haven't gotten over it.

737
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 1: You know. I think sometimes one of the things I

738
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:15,279
Speaker 1: love about sports is when there's cultural changes. I like

739
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 1: to be I like to predict what they are. I

740
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 1: love the theories and my systems on like what's changing.

741
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 1: So something's happening in college football, and college football fans

742
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: don't yet know it. So in the NFL, it's almost

743
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 1: understood that you've got to give a staff a couple

744
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:33,720
Speaker 1: of years, right, Like, there's just it's just really hard.

745
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 1: The margins are thin. Well, I think the Ohio States

746
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:40,399
Speaker 1: and the Georgia's and the Texas fans, you know, you've

747
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 1: always been able to line up and just beat teams.

748
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 1: And one of the reasons is over a long season

749
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 1: is your backups were as good as their starters. And

750
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 1: football's regulated level levels of violence. So there's college and pro.

751
00:41:54,120 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 1: There's injuries, but the transfer portal and NIL has eliminated

752
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 1: depth at the blue bloods Georgia, Texas, Clemson. So when

753
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:08,320
Speaker 1: you do suffer injuries and the season is now longer

754
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:11,799
Speaker 1: than ever, your backups are produced starters, that's all they are.

755
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 1: And so these Ohio States and these big Notre Dame,

756
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 1: these big traditional powers, as the season goes on, I mean,

757
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:24,280
Speaker 1: look at look at our twelve team playoff. Arizona States

758
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 1: in it, SMUs in it, Boise States in it like,

759
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 1: and these these are live dogs like and so I

760
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 1: don't think quite college football fans understand. Not only are

761
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 1: players getting paid that it looks more like pro football,

762
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 1: but your backup stink just like pro football. Detroit's defense

763
00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 1: now has six backups. It's terrible. A month ago it

764
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 1: was excellent. And so what and what creates that the

765
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 1: salary cap? You have bad backups in the NFL? Nobody

766
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 1: has depth in the NFL. You eat it like Philadelphia's

767
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:01,759
Speaker 1: got great frontline starters. AJ Brown's out. It's not the

768
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 1: same offense. Right, Saquon Barkley's out, it's not the same offense.

769
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:07,920
Speaker 1: We've almost understood that in pro football you need your starters.

770
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:12,880
Speaker 1: And when you get injury plagued Buffalo Detroit's defense, you're like,

771
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 1: what the hell's going on? Well, everybody knows you don't

772
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 1: have good college That was never the point. Top ten

773
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 1: teams just had better backups. I mean, eighty five scholarships

774
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:25,359
Speaker 1: allows you to have four pro offensive tackles. If you're

775
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 1: Ohio State, now they have two. One gets hurt, you

776
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:30,240
Speaker 1: move a guard to left tackle. They're all lime stakes

777
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:33,879
Speaker 1: it's Iowa at best.

778
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 4: So you're you're totally right. That's an on the field problem.

779
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 4: But culturally, for fandom, yeah, the beauty of college football,

780
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:51,359
Speaker 4: it's always been Michigan Ohio State rivalry weekend. You know,

781
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 4: Alabama Tennessee or Alabama Auburn. You know these games they

782
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 4: had so much meaning because there was a lot on

783
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 4: the line.

784
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 3: You couldn't lose that game.

785
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 4: I think what Ohio State is struggling with and what

786
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:09,920
Speaker 4: a lot of schools will struggle with in the future,

787
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:13,800
Speaker 4: is you focus so much on that one rivalry game

788
00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 4: and that's all you care about. Because college football has

789
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:21,600
Speaker 4: always been so provincial. Now it's a national game. The

790
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 4: SEC is spread out all over, The Big Ten is

791
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 4: literally nationwide. These are the only two conferences that really

792
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:36,320
Speaker 4: kind of matter. And so the provincial, local rivalries that

793
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 4: college fan bases have built their mindset on, have built

794
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 4: their self worth on, have built.

795
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 3: Their fandom on.

796
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 4: They need to move on from those really meeting anything

797
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 4: because they kind of don't. If Io State loses to

798
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 4: Michigan for the next ten years, but they win the

799
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 4: national title in five of those years, is that going

800
00:44:56,719 --> 00:45:00,319
Speaker 4: to be better or worse as a fan. They need

801
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 4: to come to grips with a new reality of what

802
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 4: these rivalry games mean in terms of the broader picture,

803
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:07,360
Speaker 4: because they used to mean everything.

804
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 3: It wasn't just about beating Michigan.

805
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 4: It was about beating Michigan and what it meant for

806
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:13,439
Speaker 4: winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl,

807
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:15,799
Speaker 4: or what it meant for winning the Big Ten and

808
00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:19,000
Speaker 4: then being in the College Football Playoff or winning the

809
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 4: BCS and getting a better rating.

810
00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 3: Those things don't matter anymore.

811
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 4: So the rivalries and the expectations for what these rivalries

812
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 4: mean need to be adjusted. I also think it's just

813
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:32,560
Speaker 4: going to diminish the value of those games for fans.

814
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 4: My kid, he's going to be in college next year.

815
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:40,080
Speaker 4: He's gotten into Indiana, he got into Penn State, wherever

816
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:43,960
Speaker 4: he decides to go. Are the rivalries for those schools

817
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:45,880
Speaker 4: going to mean as much to him twenty years from

818
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:47,439
Speaker 4: now as they do to me and my friends who

819
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:48,440
Speaker 4: also went to Indiana.

820
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 3: Probably not.

821
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:52,160
Speaker 1: Do you have an NFL bet this weekend that you

822
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:53,800
Speaker 1: would label your favorite.

823
00:45:57,440 --> 00:46:01,239
Speaker 4: Well, look, I middled Kansas City. I bet Kansas City

824
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 4: plus two and a half on Sunday night, and then no,

825
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:08,879
Speaker 4: it was plus two and a half on Monday morning.

826
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 4: I'm sorry when the news about what was happening with

827
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 4: Holmes was still unclear. The Chiefs were two and a

828
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 4: half point underdogs, so I bet them two and a half.

829
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:19,799
Speaker 4: And then when it became clear that he was going

830
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 4: to be playing. This was yesterday afternoon, the game got

831
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:24,840
Speaker 4: up to three and a half. I bet the Texans

832
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 4: at plus three and a half, So the majority of

833
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 4: my money is trying to get that middle right. But

834
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 4: I also bet the Jets three and a half. That's

835
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 4: one that I like. I really like the Steelers at

836
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 4: six and a half. So if I like, I'll put

837
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:46,280
Speaker 4: in my five favorite picks. The Steelers will be in there.

838
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:52,399
Speaker 4: The Jets will definitely be in there. Dallas I bet

839
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 4: at four and a half. I like Dallas a lot

840
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 4: against Tampa. I think there's a lot of inflation this week,

841
00:46:58,200 --> 00:47:00,440
Speaker 4: and I think that's one of the bigger games where

842
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:03,920
Speaker 4: Dallas has been playing better. Like the last three weeks,

843
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 4: last four weeks, that Cincinnati game kind of looks like

844
00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 4: a fluke, right. They lost that game, They've won the

845
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 4: three other games. Micah Parsons has seven and a half

846
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 4: sacks since he's back Deron Bland is back in the secondary.

847
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:21,920
Speaker 4: That defense is getting a lot better. Cooper Rush at

848
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 4: Home Controlled Environment. Tampa Bay just put up forty on

849
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:28,520
Speaker 4: the chargers that inflated that line a little bit.

850
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 1: So.

851
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 3: Dallas is another one that I'm I'm paying attention to.

852
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:34,880
Speaker 1: Chad Millman Sharper Square.

853
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:37,960
Speaker 3: I love it, buddy, Great to chat with your buddy.

854
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 1: The volume