WEBVTT - Beyond Green Washing, Now There's Diversity Washing

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com. Diversity washing It's apparently a thing. It

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<v Speaker 1>has to do with CEOs talking up diversity and how

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<v Speaker 1>they benefit ultimately the most. And this story is in

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<v Speaker 1>the upcoming new issue of Bloomberg Business Week. It's out

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<v Speaker 1>on newstands today, It's online at Bloomberg dot com slash

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<v Speaker 1>business Week. It's also on the Bloomberg terminal. Let's get

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<v Speaker 1>to it with Bloomberg News Managing Diversity reporter Jeff Green,

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<v Speaker 1>who joins us on the phone from Michigan. I gotta

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<v Speaker 1>tell you, Jeff, I I've heard of greenwashing, but I

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<v Speaker 1>had not heard of diversity washing until reading your story today,

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<v Speaker 1>So so breakdown what it is and how it's defined. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's so pretty cool. Ever, work by John Larker at

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<v Speaker 1>i mean, David Larker at Stanford and some other folks.

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<v Speaker 1>They took what people have been saying in regulatory filings

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<v Speaker 1>about their diversity efforts and they put that together with

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<v Speaker 1>what they're actually doing in terms of the diversity of

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<v Speaker 1>their company. Or they're like, are they getting a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of fines from the e E O C for doing

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<v Speaker 1>bad stuff? And they kind of picked out the people

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<v Speaker 1>who had the biggest disconnect between what they were bragging

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<v Speaker 1>about and what they were actually doing, and they called

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<v Speaker 1>that diversity watching. And it turns out it works. In

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<v Speaker 1>other words, what does that mean? It works well? The

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<v Speaker 1>people who talked it up a lot, even if they

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<v Speaker 1>weren't doing much, tended to be get higher E s

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<v Speaker 1>G scores than the people who were kind of speaking

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<v Speaker 1>in line with what they're really doing. And then those

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<v Speaker 1>E s G scores allowed the same companies to then

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<v Speaker 1>get picked more often than the others to be in

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<v Speaker 1>socially responsible investment funds. So you know, at this point,

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<v Speaker 1>until somebody can actually see what you're saying more clearly,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's a pretty good tactic. Well so okay, so

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<v Speaker 1>maybe attracting and investors, but it also helps boost their

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<v Speaker 1>compensation as well. Right, you guys know this as well. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a separate study from Harvard where yeah, by adding

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<v Speaker 1>in compensation to the CEO pay you um as a factor,

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<v Speaker 1>they get a bonus. But you can't as an investor

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<v Speaker 1>really tell what that means. For the same reasons, they

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<v Speaker 1>can get people who invest in them even if they're

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<v Speaker 1>not really doing much in terms of diversity. So this

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<v Speaker 1>is stuff that you track, uh, in your in your role, Jeff,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, you guys have done some great work

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of tracking numbers when it comes to diversity.

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<v Speaker 1>When it comes to what companies are actually doing, what

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<v Speaker 1>do companies talk about when they say they're doing this

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<v Speaker 1>stuff versus what they're actually doing? Like, you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>proof is obviously in the data and it's in the numbers,

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<v Speaker 1>But what are companies saying versus what they're doing? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>they is use a lot of the of the fancy

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<v Speaker 1>words that everyone wants to hear about. You know, we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to do more to make our leadership more diverse.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna try to retain and hire more diverse workforce.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it always about what we're going to try to do? Like,

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<v Speaker 1>what we're trying to do is what we're doing, if

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<v Speaker 1>you know? I mean it's the problem is there's no

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<v Speaker 1>way to know for sure. I mean, there is no

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<v Speaker 1>universal requirement that companies publicly report what they're doing in diversity,

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<v Speaker 1>so they can pick whatever they want, in whatever format

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<v Speaker 1>they want, in any way they want. And that is

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<v Speaker 1>the problem. You know, this is I do feel like,

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<v Speaker 1>can we say it a lot, Jeff is? It does

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<v Speaker 1>feel like E s G is going through a reckoning

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<v Speaker 1>um And you know, Tim and I talked about it's

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<v Speaker 1>not going to matter until you really have metrics that

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<v Speaker 1>you can apply to company to company to company, and

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<v Speaker 1>then when a company reports their quarterly that's part of

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<v Speaker 1>the assessment and they get rewarded or penalized, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if they don't meet those E s G metrics. But

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like we have a ways to go. Where

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<v Speaker 1>are where are regulators on this? How How does the

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<v Speaker 1>SEC if that's the body that should be in control

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<v Speaker 1>of it, how are they moving forward to figure it out?

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<v Speaker 1>There really hasn't been a like a concerted effort to

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<v Speaker 1>get at this. I mean, to be honest, we could

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<v Speaker 1>fix this tomorrow. Every company puts out of what they

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<v Speaker 1>call an EO one form every year shows the gender

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<v Speaker 1>and rache you breakdown of their entire company around like

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<v Speaker 1>uh nine or ten classes of workers. They have to

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<v Speaker 1>do it every year. They do it, but it's private

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<v Speaker 1>and they don't have to release it. And maybe a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of hundred companies are, but not you know, tens

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<v Speaker 1>of thousands. So if everyone just said, here's our EO one,

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<v Speaker 1>we could really start to see company to company what's

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<v Speaker 1>going on. But companies are uncomfortable with it because well,

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<v Speaker 1>they say that they're outdated and they don't capture things correctly,

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<v Speaker 1>but also they tend to make them look bad. Jeff.

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<v Speaker 1>For someone who does this day in and day out

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<v Speaker 1>and knows the research, knows what's going on. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>how difficult though, is it in terms of reporting and

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<v Speaker 1>to kind of call a company out. Yeah, I mean

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<v Speaker 1>you gotta kind of you gotta basically they gotta call

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<v Speaker 1>themselves out. To be honest, it's it's really difficult unless

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<v Speaker 1>you got a whistleblower to know for sure what's going

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<v Speaker 1>on and occasionally. You know, ironically, the companies that are

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<v Speaker 1>most open are the ones we can call out. So

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<v Speaker 1>the companies that are actually trying to play by the

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<v Speaker 1>rules are the ones most likely to get burned by this.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's kind of I guess the price they pay

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<v Speaker 1>because they say, well, we're trying to set the set

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<v Speaker 1>the tone, you know, to get other companies to follow.

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<v Speaker 1>But most of the time, what it means is they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to be the ones out front getting there. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>the whack of mole is going to get them first.

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<v Speaker 1>Isn't it a little concerning that this is the results

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<v Speaker 1>that we see from the study, and now it sort

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<v Speaker 1>of gives companies an idea. Okay, wait a second, if

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<v Speaker 1>I just keep doing this but not actually making any change,

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<v Speaker 1>then it will continue to benefit me. Yeah, I think

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<v Speaker 1>they've already been doing it. I don't think. But really,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think anyone cannot talk about this on their calls.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's it's always going to be a question of

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<v Speaker 1>are they actually doing anything? And we are kind of

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<v Speaker 1>in a time when employees will notice. So you can

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<v Speaker 1>look around, you can look around your workspace and see

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's working or not. So This isn't something that's

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<v Speaker 1>impossible for people to know. It's just as the pressure

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<v Speaker 1>grows for companies to disclose, there's more information available. It's

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<v Speaker 1>just not apples to apples, So you really can't compare

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<v Speaker 1>across the industry, Like is this good or is this bad?

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<v Speaker 1>I have no idea. Where is the ethics though? And

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<v Speaker 1>all of this? Like I've been thinking about if I'm

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<v Speaker 1>heading a company and I'm saying I'm doing X, Y Z,

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<v Speaker 1>and then I kind of know it's just a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of fluff and talk. Um. I feel like coming off

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic, I feel like coming off of the murder

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<v Speaker 1>of George Floyd, like we were having some fairly honest

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<v Speaker 1>conversations with leaders and maybe they felt like they were

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<v Speaker 1>more comfortable to do so, but about diversity and some

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<v Speaker 1>really important issues. Um, and I really felt like that

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<v Speaker 1>there was a ce change. Uh. Now I'm not so sure.

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<v Speaker 1>So where's the you know, the consciousness of wait a minute,

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<v Speaker 1>if I say I'm doing it, I need to be

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<v Speaker 1>doing it. Well. I mean, I think the sort of

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<v Speaker 1>the issue here is this is marketing. I mean we've

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<v Speaker 1>actually done stories where we looked at it and the

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<v Speaker 1>very first sort of area where you see this come

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<v Speaker 1>in is people with a marketing background, not people with

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<v Speaker 1>the science background. We wrote some stories about this botus.

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<v Speaker 1>It may be shifting, but by and large, this is

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<v Speaker 1>marketing and it's just like any you know, how many

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<v Speaker 1>commercials do you watch and go, oh, that was very honest.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, buy our beer. It tastes bad. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I've been called naive before. Jeff, I get where you're going. Hey, Jeff,

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<v Speaker 1>what does this say about s G? Because that's that's

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<v Speaker 1>a big part of the conversation that we've been having

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<v Speaker 1>in recent months. And I think it's come to the

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<v Speaker 1>four because really, you know, in a down market you

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<v Speaker 1>start to see kind of a lot of different and

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<v Speaker 1>hard truths. Um, what does this say about E s

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<v Speaker 1>G and the relationship that E s G has with

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<v Speaker 1>what what companies say about D E I. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it's well past time that people start to have some

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<v Speaker 1>real conversations about this. We're asking people to change like

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<v Speaker 1>the entire economy of the world based on some assumptions

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<v Speaker 1>and asking them to do a whole lot of stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>And up until a few years ago, it was just

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<v Speaker 1>puppies and rainbows, I mean, which is yeah, we want

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<v Speaker 1>to save the planet, will do whatever it takes. And

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<v Speaker 1>now we're starting to actually decide we need we're doing

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<v Speaker 1>those things, we're setting goals, and I think it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>a good time to have people say, ay, are what

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<v Speaker 1>are you actually doing? And be is that really going

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<v Speaker 1>to result in what you say it's going to result in?

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<v Speaker 1>And and what is the trade off? And having like

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<v Speaker 1>real conversations. This is you know, like I said, it's marketing,

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<v Speaker 1>but it needs to be science. So and we're not

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<v Speaker 1>there yet. We're not even close to that yet. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>definitely thing I do wonder And this is another thing

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<v Speaker 1>to me I talk about. You know, when the market's

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<v Speaker 1>doing really well, it's easy for people to be gung

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<v Speaker 1>ho about E S G initiatives. Are you know, companies

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<v Speaker 1>coming out and saying we're going to do these diversity

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<v Speaker 1>initiatives and so on and so forth. But I feel

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<v Speaker 1>like when recessions come or economic slowdown, everybody pulls back.

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<v Speaker 1>Are we seeing that kind of um momentum happen again?

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<v Speaker 1>Are people are understanding wait a minute, we gotta say

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to do better and actually do better well

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<v Speaker 1>until that employment unemployment rate gets higher. I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>difficult for companies to make those kind of decisions. And also,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean it's it's the kind of thing where you

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<v Speaker 1>you know, again you need to hire people and people

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<v Speaker 1>are that it's really hard to kind of stop at

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<v Speaker 1>that level of like the only risk I would say

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest risk is the first in, first out. Companies

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<v Speaker 1>tend to be hiring more diverse now than they used

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<v Speaker 1>to be. So in theory, if you're if those ten

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<v Speaker 1>thousand people leaving, you know what Microsoft are from the

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<v Speaker 1>first you know, the group that's most recently in, then yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you're gonna see a dent. And a lot of stuff

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<v Speaker 1>would happened at Twitter. You know, we wrote that like

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<v Speaker 1>we think that could see a dent. So it's a

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<v Speaker 1>kind of question of you know, who are you cutting

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<v Speaker 1>loose into recession? And does this worker shortage actually go away?

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<v Speaker 1>It seems like we're still missing a couple of million

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<v Speaker 1>workers that we need to make this um you know,

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<v Speaker 1>put the power back in the hands of employers thirty seconds, Jeff,

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<v Speaker 1>what needs to happen in order for permanent change to

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<v Speaker 1>to actually take place at these companies? Show us the numbers,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, just show me real numbers that I can

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<v Speaker 1>compare across the industry, across the country, across everything else,

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<v Speaker 1>and then we'll know it's there. You have it, you

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<v Speaker 1>already collected, Just show it right, transparency right. It would

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<v Speaker 1>change things dramatically. Also would be great for Jeff's job.

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<v Speaker 1>Get those get those numbers, just like please please, need

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<v Speaker 1>little selfish, but it's still what we want to see it.

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<v Speaker 1>We all want to see it to Jeff selfish for

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<v Speaker 1>a good mission. Jeff Green, Thank you, Bloomberg News Managing

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<v Speaker 1>Diversity reporter Jeff Green. Joining us via zoom from Michigan.

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<v Speaker 1>These sees Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Tim

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<v Speaker 1>Stentovic on Bloomberg Radio. We do want to get to

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<v Speaker 1>another story that's in the new issue of Bloomberg business Week.

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<v Speaker 1>It's also the Bloomberg Big Take. It's about the Foe

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<v Speaker 1>meet Frenzy that's feeling more like a fad rather than

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<v Speaker 1>a food fix. With her cover story, we've got Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>News Consumer reporter Dina Shanker, along with the Bloomberg Business

0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:09.040
<v Speaker 1>Week editor Joel Webber, both right here in our Bloomberg

0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:14.679
<v Speaker 1>Interactive Broker's studio. Joel, where's the beef. Well, the beef

0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:17.840
<v Speaker 1>has always been there. The what hasn't been around forever

0:10:17.920 --> 0:10:21.280
<v Speaker 1>has been the fake meat. And about a decade ago,

0:10:21.600 --> 0:10:25.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, impossible burgers started to make some noise and

0:10:25.800 --> 0:10:28.360
<v Speaker 1>then along came Beyond Meat. And when Beyond Meat went

0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:32.240
<v Speaker 1>public that I p O was the biggest I p

0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:35.319
<v Speaker 1>O since the financial crisis was wild to sue to

0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:38.520
<v Speaker 1>read that I no idea And so that was all

0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:42.760
<v Speaker 1>really interesting, and I think um consumers were beginning to

0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:45.199
<v Speaker 1>think like, hey, this is the future of what meat

0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:48.360
<v Speaker 1>is gonna look like. And then fast and I think,

0:10:48.400 --> 0:10:50.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, the pandemic, more people tried this stuff, and

0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:54.080
<v Speaker 1>then you throw in a little inflation and grocery bills

0:10:54.080 --> 0:10:56.080
<v Speaker 1>going up, and then oh, by the way, what's this

0:10:56.120 --> 0:11:00.240
<v Speaker 1>fake meat stuff made out of? And the company's uh,

0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:04.000
<v Speaker 1>have hit some headwinds. And what really caught my attention

0:11:04.040 --> 0:11:07.120
<v Speaker 1>and our attention to the magazine was Dina's all star

0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:10.160
<v Speaker 1>reporting throughout this and the headlines that we're starting to

0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:13.280
<v Speaker 1>resonate with me were about the fast food stuff because

0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:15.600
<v Speaker 1>all these fast food companies were suddenly was like, wait, wait,

0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:18.560
<v Speaker 1>why isn't McDonald's doing this, you know, and where why

0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:21.400
<v Speaker 1>isn't anything permanent on the menus, And so we started

0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:23.600
<v Speaker 1>talking to Dina about, you know, what's going on with

0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:26.320
<v Speaker 1>fake meat, and it turns out that, you know, there

0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:29.480
<v Speaker 1>was a moment where fake meat was in a hyper

0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:32.520
<v Speaker 1>growth mode and it's beginning to look more like that

0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:35.559
<v Speaker 1>fat right, Dina, take us inside your reporting. What'd you learn?

0:11:36.400 --> 0:11:39.040
<v Speaker 1>Thanks so much. Yeah, it was It's been years in

0:11:39.040 --> 0:11:41.240
<v Speaker 1>the making because, as you said that I p O

0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:44.240
<v Speaker 1>was huge and everyone was excited about it. I mean

0:11:44.400 --> 0:11:48.200
<v Speaker 1>the entire industry. Suddenly you had like the small new

0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:50.600
<v Speaker 1>startups that were coming up that we're getting tons of

0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:53.160
<v Speaker 1>funding because everyone's an opportunity here. You had the big

0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:57.959
<v Speaker 1>food companies coming out with new products or reinventing old ones.

0:11:58.040 --> 0:12:00.920
<v Speaker 1>Everyone wanted a piece of this because every one thought, yeah,

0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:03.880
<v Speaker 1>we can convince meat eaters to sub something else in.

0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:07.720
<v Speaker 1>But it turns out that that's a really hard sell

0:12:07.760 --> 0:12:10.720
<v Speaker 1>and it's gonna get even harder if the food doesn't

0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:15.120
<v Speaker 1>taste quite as good, and it doesn't according to most

0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:18.319
<v Speaker 1>people that you will ask about it. It's also more expensive.

0:12:18.400 --> 0:12:22.200
<v Speaker 1>And then yes, environmentally these things are so much better

0:12:22.200 --> 0:12:25.000
<v Speaker 1>for the planet, but most people aren't buying for the planet,

0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:27.600
<v Speaker 1>they do care about their health, but then turns out

0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:31.079
<v Speaker 1>these products are not healthy. Now, some people might say

0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:35.120
<v Speaker 1>they're marginally healthier, but even that is not settled. So

0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:39.800
<v Speaker 1>consumers just really started backing away, and we saw sales

0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:46.320
<v Speaker 1>plummet at the supermarket, restaurants just everywhere basically. Well, and

0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:48.160
<v Speaker 1>this is something we've been talking about it before we

0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:51.880
<v Speaker 1>got going. Is for me, like, if it was healthy,

0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:54.560
<v Speaker 1>I'd be a buy in. I mean, what exactly is

0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:57.280
<v Speaker 1>in it? I mean, I know there's a lot of sodium, right,

0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:02.080
<v Speaker 1>not good? What else? So these are ultra processed foods,

0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:05.960
<v Speaker 1>which means that the ingredients themselves are processed or their

0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:11.160
<v Speaker 1>extracts of other foods. So, uh, that means the ingredients list,

0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:14.920
<v Speaker 1>are they so crazy compared to other things in the supermarket.

0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.120
<v Speaker 1>They're not. There's a ton of processed food out there,

0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:21.280
<v Speaker 1>but which I also don't exactly that and that's exactly right.

0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:24.520
<v Speaker 1>And so if you're trying to appeal to health conscious consumers,

0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:28.160
<v Speaker 1>those are exactly the consumers who know to uh, flip

0:13:28.240 --> 0:13:30.440
<v Speaker 1>the package and look at the ingredients and look at

0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:33.360
<v Speaker 1>the nutrition facts. Okay, So that actually speaks to an

0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:37.200
<v Speaker 1>interesting thing here because the audience for this has you know,

0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:39.079
<v Speaker 1>when you look at it, it's like, okay, well, if

0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:41.760
<v Speaker 1>it's fake meat, that means vegetarians would want this, right,

0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:46.720
<v Speaker 1>But how's it gone over with meat eaters versus vegetarians

0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:49.600
<v Speaker 1>since those were the two categories of people that they're

0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:53.839
<v Speaker 1>trying to get here, Right, So, vegetarians and vegans by

0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:57.080
<v Speaker 1>the most of this stuff per capita um. But at

0:13:57.120 --> 0:14:00.360
<v Speaker 1>the same time, some of them are not really so

0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:02.880
<v Speaker 1>into it either because they're not really looking for something

0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:06.800
<v Speaker 1>that is that close to something meaty. Vegetarian, I don't

0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:09.480
<v Speaker 1>want to see the food bleeding. There are plenty of

0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:13.400
<v Speaker 1>vegetarians that like meat, but they have other reasons for

0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:16.600
<v Speaker 1>animal welfare reason, environmental reasons, and these are appealing to them,

0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:19.480
<v Speaker 1>and they're probably the best customers. They're buying the most

0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:22.320
<v Speaker 1>of it um. But then you also have the meat eaters,

0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:26.800
<v Speaker 1>and meat eaters just don't buy with regular frequency. They

0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:29.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of dip int about um. A lot of people,

0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:32.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, thought I'd like to cut down my meat

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:35.040
<v Speaker 1>intake and tried these. Some of them said okay, well

0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:37.440
<v Speaker 1>that was that was okay, And and then they've got

0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:40.520
<v Speaker 1>comfortable with the idea of something like lentils or beans um,

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.600
<v Speaker 1>which is also a lot healthier and cheaper. Um. Other

0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:46.360
<v Speaker 1>people were like, well, yeah, I'll go back. I'll have

0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:48.760
<v Speaker 1>some chicken because chickens. I know, chicken is healthy, and

0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:51.440
<v Speaker 1>it's still a lot less expensive than beef and less

0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:55.000
<v Speaker 1>expensive than this stuff. So the consumer base is just

0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:59.680
<v Speaker 1>really very narrow. What is it about food fads that

0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:02.840
<v Speaker 1>gets people so excited? And I'm old enough to remember

0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.920
<v Speaker 1>like the snack Wells fat free food craze which you mentioned,

0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:09.200
<v Speaker 1>the Olean slash Olestra stuff and potato chips, which I

0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:11.800
<v Speaker 1>remember my dad explaining to me what that was. I mean,

0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:15.080
<v Speaker 1>that was supposed to be really exciting, and then after

0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:17.240
<v Speaker 1>a few months or a few years, people start to realize,

0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:19.520
<v Speaker 1>wait a second, this isn't good for us. It's like

0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:24.920
<v Speaker 1>we haven't even learned this. We're all just really obsessed

0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:28.040
<v Speaker 1>with the idea of looking good and also want to

0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:31.040
<v Speaker 1>eat all the time. And so anytime somebody can offer

0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:33.240
<v Speaker 1>a solution that sounds like it will let us be

0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:35.480
<v Speaker 1>both of those things, we all jump on it. Are

0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:40.240
<v Speaker 1>you looking at me? King? Okay? One thing I do

0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:43.240
<v Speaker 1>want to ask more about. The article is ultimately about

0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:46.800
<v Speaker 1>two different companies right Beyond and Impossible and beyond the

0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:49.480
<v Speaker 1>publicly traded one, and we talked a little bit about

0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:52.200
<v Speaker 1>that I p O before UM, which you know, just

0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:54.400
<v Speaker 1>to rewind the clock a little bit and like think

0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:57.960
<v Speaker 1>about how how rosy of a picture it was in

0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:03.000
<v Speaker 1>twenty nineteen in July, UH stock hitting out all time

0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:06.400
<v Speaker 1>high children four dollars a share. UH right now is

0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:09.160
<v Speaker 1>trading at fourteen. So gives you a sense of how

0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:11.720
<v Speaker 1>much enthusiasm has come out of this space. But so

0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:14.240
<v Speaker 1>what what what do the prospects look like for Beyond?

0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:17.600
<v Speaker 1>And what about Impossible, which is still privately held. So

0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:22.360
<v Speaker 1>to strategic differences, I think here, yeah, to UH companies

0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:25.640
<v Speaker 1>obviously with a lot in common, but also that operate

0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:29.000
<v Speaker 1>very differently. Beyond has a lot of issues that I

0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:31.960
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't attribute to the category or to consumers. They have

0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:34.400
<v Speaker 1>a really hard time executing and we've covered that for

0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:36.920
<v Speaker 1>a while. UM, they've had a really hard time bringing

0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:40.520
<v Speaker 1>costs down because of that. UM, their leadership is constantly changing,

0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:44.480
<v Speaker 1>so they have their own problems. Impossible is private, so

0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:47.800
<v Speaker 1>of course we don't know the same with the same

0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:49.960
<v Speaker 1>level of detail about their sales. We do know their

0:16:49.960 --> 0:16:53.040
<v Speaker 1>supermarket sales are way up. For twenty two, they went

0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:56.520
<v Speaker 1>up by more than fifty according to the company. The

0:16:56.520 --> 0:17:00.200
<v Speaker 1>way they did that was largely by just adding more

0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:03.200
<v Speaker 1>and more products, which is a tried and true food

0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:06.639
<v Speaker 1>UM strategy to get people to buy more things. You know,

0:17:06.720 --> 0:17:09.520
<v Speaker 1>you just in two ways. One is that the more

0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:11.480
<v Speaker 1>products you can put on a shelf, the more likely

0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:13.520
<v Speaker 1>a consumer is going to notice them. You know, when

0:17:13.760 --> 0:17:17.280
<v Speaker 1>a yogurt company has like fifteen flavors, it's not because

0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:19.280
<v Speaker 1>they think every one of those fifteen flavors is going

0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:22.280
<v Speaker 1>to sell well. If they want that space and um,

0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:25.280
<v Speaker 1>then whichever one of those products do sell well, they'll

0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.480
<v Speaker 1>hold on too, and they'll keep cycling in and out

0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:30.280
<v Speaker 1>of innovation. So that's the that's what Impossible is doing

0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:32.600
<v Speaker 1>now in supermarkets, and it makes total sense because their

0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:36.240
<v Speaker 1>CEO comes from Chobani and has all of that experience.

0:17:36.359 --> 0:17:38.760
<v Speaker 1>You know, the thing about feeding the world and that

0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:41.280
<v Speaker 1>the you know, meat, what it does to the environment,

0:17:41.560 --> 0:17:44.120
<v Speaker 1>to our earth, and especially as the population continues to grow,

0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:45.720
<v Speaker 1>there is something to say that we've got to figure

0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:49.720
<v Speaker 1>out some agricultural innovation, right and food at innovation is

0:17:49.720 --> 0:17:52.360
<v Speaker 1>it just a case that they need more time. Am

0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:54.679
<v Speaker 1>I missing something? What do what do folks saying? We

0:17:54.720 --> 0:17:58.440
<v Speaker 1>just have about thirty seconds? I think if it were me,

0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:01.840
<v Speaker 1>I would never depend on sumer behavior for big changes

0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:06.880
<v Speaker 1>because this country has three million consumers in it and

0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:10.399
<v Speaker 1>that's a lot of that's a lot of people to

0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:13.440
<v Speaker 1>expect to change their behavior. I'd go, I try to

0:18:13.480 --> 0:18:16.679
<v Speaker 1>get corporate behavior to change, because there's many fewer corporations

0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:21.560
<v Speaker 1>lave grown meat likelihood to happen. I'd say, really breaking

0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:24.040
<v Speaker 1>about it more, you know, like there's more, there's more

0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:29.320
<v Speaker 1>to you know, put on a peat tradition study that

0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:33.240
<v Speaker 1>sounds like sounds like cover story. There's something about dipping

0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:37.840
<v Speaker 1>dots to in the story. We didn't get into connection

0:18:38.400 --> 0:18:42.920
<v Speaker 1>beyond me. You've got to read it because it's, oh

0:18:42.920 --> 0:18:46.560
<v Speaker 1>my god, I'm terrified. Dina Shankar a killer story consumer

0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:48.280
<v Speaker 1>reporter at Bloomberg News. It's the cover of the new

0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:50.760
<v Speaker 1>issue of Bloomberg Business We check it out, Jill Weber

0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:53.119
<v Speaker 1>are thanks to you, Editor, Bloomberg Business Week, the new

0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:56.679
<v Speaker 1>issue on newsstands on the Bloomberg Online. This is Bloomberg.

0:18:57.119 --> 0:19:00.119
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol man us

0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:03.520
<v Speaker 1>Here and Tim Stanovic on Bloomberg Radio. I feel like

0:19:03.520 --> 0:19:05.919
<v Speaker 1>a day doesn't go by that we don't talk about Tessa.

0:19:06.040 --> 0:19:08.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean makes me ask howcom Tesla gets all the love,

0:19:08.800 --> 0:19:11.480
<v Speaker 1>especially when it comes to stocks collapsing in the e

0:19:11.600 --> 0:19:14.560
<v Speaker 1>V space, because uh, it does seem like that's the

0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:17.520
<v Speaker 1>only one we often talk about it does. I mean,

0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:21.120
<v Speaker 1>let's just say, Elon Musk does garner a lot of attention.

0:19:21.359 --> 0:19:24.040
<v Speaker 1>But you know, one of our colleagues here a Bloomberg

0:19:24.080 --> 0:19:26.879
<v Speaker 1>News wrote all about that, writing about just that in

0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:29.680
<v Speaker 1>more is Bloomberg News Equity Markets rewarder Ashton Day. She

0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:33.040
<v Speaker 1>notes that well, Tesla's epic stock price collapse has dominated

0:19:33.080 --> 0:19:34.960
<v Speaker 1>headlines over the past year. For some of the smaller

0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:37.880
<v Speaker 1>electric vehicle companies, the route has been even worse. It's

0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:41.240
<v Speaker 1>a sign that investors see few attractive alternatives in the sector.

0:19:41.320 --> 0:19:44.320
<v Speaker 1>She's right now in our Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio. So

0:19:44.359 --> 0:19:46.840
<v Speaker 1>a couple of companies that you talk about, Uh, Lucid

0:19:47.520 --> 0:19:49.959
<v Speaker 1>is in there, and Rivian is in there as well.

0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:51.880
<v Speaker 1>Before we talk about the differences, let's just talk about

0:19:51.880 --> 0:19:54.240
<v Speaker 1>the damage, because it was actually worse here for those

0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:57.960
<v Speaker 1>companies than for Tesla. Yes, and thanks for having me. Um. Yeah,

0:19:57.960 --> 0:20:01.800
<v Speaker 1>it was quite a terrible here for Rivian and Lucid

0:20:01.840 --> 0:20:04.720
<v Speaker 1>as well. And you know, we can we can discuss

0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:07.440
<v Speaker 1>a lot of reasons why that happened, right, Like we

0:20:07.560 --> 0:20:11.040
<v Speaker 1>saw growth stocks across the stock market kind of getting deestimated,

0:20:11.800 --> 0:20:15.040
<v Speaker 1>But that does not really explain all of it. Um,

0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:17.800
<v Speaker 1>you can we ask how bad they did? Oh, of course,

0:20:18.240 --> 0:20:20.679
<v Speaker 1>So if we if we go back from from the

0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:24.720
<v Speaker 1>peak Tesla so far at the bottom of it, which

0:20:24.920 --> 0:20:30.399
<v Speaker 1>was like earlier this year fell around, Rivian and Lucid

0:20:30.840 --> 0:20:37.440
<v Speaker 1>lost almost so that's yes, decimated the word right, that's

0:20:37.480 --> 0:20:38.919
<v Speaker 1>that's a lot. So go back to what you were

0:20:38.920 --> 0:20:40.479
<v Speaker 1>saying that in terms of the reasoning. I mean, how

0:20:40.560 --> 0:20:42.520
<v Speaker 1>much I think when we think about it's so easy

0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:44.679
<v Speaker 1>for a big player like Tessa to come out right

0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:46.679
<v Speaker 1>and then it just drags down the whole sector. But

0:20:46.720 --> 0:20:48.439
<v Speaker 1>I also do wonder if this is where we need

0:20:48.480 --> 0:20:49.919
<v Speaker 1>to be smart, and I feel like we often are

0:20:49.960 --> 0:20:52.960
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg is kind of looking at each company individually.

0:20:52.960 --> 0:20:55.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean, can we lump them all in one part?

0:20:55.800 --> 0:20:58.360
<v Speaker 1>That's a great question. Um, can we lump all ev

0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:02.320
<v Speaker 1>names together death literally not Riview and Lucid with Tesla. Right,

0:21:02.320 --> 0:21:05.440
<v Speaker 1>like Tesla, we cannot deny the fact that it's still

0:21:05.480 --> 0:21:09.240
<v Speaker 1>definitely the biggest EV maker out there. It's it's proven

0:21:09.320 --> 0:21:13.280
<v Speaker 1>the fact that evs are viable. People want evis. It

0:21:13.320 --> 0:21:17.520
<v Speaker 1>has also proven that it can produce evis profitably. Rivieans

0:21:17.520 --> 0:21:19.720
<v Speaker 1>and Lucids of the world and many other startups that

0:21:19.720 --> 0:21:22.640
<v Speaker 1>are out there EV names, they haven't really been able

0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:25.280
<v Speaker 1>to do that yet, so they are a group on

0:21:25.320 --> 0:21:28.480
<v Speaker 1>their own, the ev pure play EV startups and and

0:21:28.680 --> 0:21:30.840
<v Speaker 1>some of the decimations, as I said, like some of

0:21:30.880 --> 0:21:33.439
<v Speaker 1>the decimations we saw in their share price was due

0:21:33.480 --> 0:21:36.960
<v Speaker 1>to the fact that growth stocks, especially unprofitable, super risky

0:21:36.960 --> 0:21:39.720
<v Speaker 1>growth stocks, really saw the value kind of getting taken

0:21:39.720 --> 0:21:43.359
<v Speaker 1>away as investors are looking for more safer investments. But

0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:46.119
<v Speaker 1>these companies have troubles of their own, and those troubles

0:21:46.119 --> 0:21:49.120
<v Speaker 1>are getting magnified. When we are seeing a company even

0:21:49.160 --> 0:21:52.119
<v Speaker 1>like Tesla, really struggling with the demand. If Tesla is

0:21:52.160 --> 0:21:54.679
<v Speaker 1>having to cut prices by twenty person, what does it

0:21:54.760 --> 0:21:58.360
<v Speaker 1>mean for these companies that barely have any of their

0:21:58.920 --> 0:22:02.280
<v Speaker 1>like any kind of scaling our production. How do they

0:22:02.320 --> 0:22:05.679
<v Speaker 1>manage their margins? You know, I'm looking up, I'm curious

0:22:05.720 --> 0:22:09.320
<v Speaker 1>about you know, companies like Ford and GM, companies that

0:22:09.359 --> 0:22:12.560
<v Speaker 1>are established automakers who've seen different economic cycles, been around

0:22:12.600 --> 0:22:15.880
<v Speaker 1>in some cases for more than a century, and they've

0:22:15.880 --> 0:22:19.480
<v Speaker 1>weathered previous storms. And I'm wondering if you know, it

0:22:19.520 --> 0:22:22.920
<v Speaker 1>says something about the EV industry, if it says something

0:22:22.920 --> 0:22:25.479
<v Speaker 1>about the auto industry, or if this is simply just

0:22:25.600 --> 0:22:29.200
<v Speaker 1>a growth stock slash, you know, tech stock story. Is

0:22:29.240 --> 0:22:33.040
<v Speaker 1>it about UM investors not necessarily see an opportunity when

0:22:33.040 --> 0:22:36.320
<v Speaker 1>it comes to these upstart automakers and thinking, okay, Ford

0:22:36.320 --> 0:22:39.040
<v Speaker 1>and GM and Volkswagen, that's where we're going to see

0:22:39.040 --> 0:22:42.199
<v Speaker 1>the big numbers UM. So I think the heart of

0:22:42.240 --> 0:22:45.240
<v Speaker 1>the storylines and the fact that these companies are having

0:22:45.280 --> 0:22:48.960
<v Speaker 1>a really bad luck macro wise at a time when

0:22:49.000 --> 0:22:53.080
<v Speaker 1>they're really not established at all. They maybe at their

0:22:53.119 --> 0:22:57.560
<v Speaker 1>start ups right exactly. So you know, for Ford and GMS,

0:22:57.640 --> 0:23:00.840
<v Speaker 1>they have they weathered really bad sessions, but they were

0:23:00.880 --> 0:23:04.400
<v Speaker 1>already established companies. They had the economies of scale, they

0:23:04.440 --> 0:23:06.639
<v Speaker 1>had profit on their balance sheet maybe and not at

0:23:06.680 --> 0:23:09.679
<v Speaker 1>that point, but they did. Uh, these companies have nothing.

0:23:09.720 --> 0:23:13.879
<v Speaker 1>They were like these giant companies at one point was

0:23:14.320 --> 0:23:18.040
<v Speaker 1>bigger than GM invaluation but that does not mean that

0:23:18.080 --> 0:23:21.639
<v Speaker 1>they had established machinery often established company behind them. And

0:23:21.840 --> 0:23:23.960
<v Speaker 1>be fair, both Ford and GM did finish down last

0:23:24.000 --> 0:23:26.600
<v Speaker 1>year by so it's not like, you know, they were

0:23:26.600 --> 0:23:29.040
<v Speaker 1>seeing an upswing while these other companies weren't. No, it's

0:23:29.040 --> 0:23:31.000
<v Speaker 1>a really good point, right the whole sector in terms

0:23:31.040 --> 0:23:33.480
<v Speaker 1>of right that we saw pressure. You know, I'm looking

0:23:33.480 --> 0:23:36.040
<v Speaker 1>at some of these numbers. Lucien began Lucid excuse me,

0:23:36.080 --> 0:23:40.480
<v Speaker 1>began trading in July one. Equity value tapped out at

0:23:40.240 --> 0:23:43.359
<v Speaker 1>nine billion in November that year. Van shares peaked just

0:23:43.440 --> 0:23:47.159
<v Speaker 1>days before or just days after. It's November I p O,

0:23:47.720 --> 0:23:49.680
<v Speaker 1>valuing the company in a hundred and fifty three billion

0:23:49.720 --> 0:23:54.560
<v Speaker 1>more than Volkswagen, despite Rivan having zero revenue at the time. Like,

0:23:54.840 --> 0:23:57.639
<v Speaker 1>I know, it sounds like what but we understand this,

0:23:57.720 --> 0:23:59.560
<v Speaker 1>Like there was a point where Tesla wasn't making learnings

0:23:59.560 --> 0:24:01.600
<v Speaker 1>and you know, and then it and then it did.

0:24:02.200 --> 0:24:05.480
<v Speaker 1>Um what I do wonder about the viability though, of

0:24:05.840 --> 0:24:08.920
<v Speaker 1>maybe all of them, Maybe it's just Rivian and you know,

0:24:09.359 --> 0:24:11.679
<v Speaker 1>um Lucy that we need to think about because the

0:24:11.720 --> 0:24:14.119
<v Speaker 1>cost of capital has gotten more expensive and so if

0:24:14.119 --> 0:24:16.000
<v Speaker 1>they have to tap the market, either the private market

0:24:16.040 --> 0:24:19.320
<v Speaker 1>to the public markets. It's more expensive, absolutely, and that

0:24:19.400 --> 0:24:21.679
<v Speaker 1>kind of again like that is the main risk for

0:24:21.720 --> 0:24:25.359
<v Speaker 1>these companies. For a Tesla, despite the six rob that

0:24:25.400 --> 0:24:28.760
<v Speaker 1>we just talked about, it's still a three billion dollar company.

0:24:28.800 --> 0:24:31.800
<v Speaker 1>It still has that access, that cheap access to capital

0:24:31.840 --> 0:24:34.119
<v Speaker 1>markets and cheap access to capital that it can tap

0:24:34.119 --> 0:24:37.200
<v Speaker 1>at any point. These companies barely do. I mean, Rivian

0:24:37.280 --> 0:24:40.000
<v Speaker 1>has about thirteen billion of cash on their balance sheet

0:24:40.040 --> 0:24:43.320
<v Speaker 1>as of the end of September the end of September

0:24:43.960 --> 0:24:47.840
<v Speaker 1>um and it's valuation hours around fifteen billion dollars. So

0:24:47.880 --> 0:24:51.560
<v Speaker 1>it's basically trading slightly above the cash that has on hand,

0:24:51.560 --> 0:24:54.040
<v Speaker 1>and that kind of tells us how how risky the

0:24:54.080 --> 0:24:57.240
<v Speaker 1>market things these companies are. Cars at the end of

0:24:57.240 --> 0:25:00.680
<v Speaker 1>the day, are consumer discretion in their discretion it purchases.

0:25:00.800 --> 0:25:04.040
<v Speaker 1>Evis are way more expensive, especially a car like Ribbean.

0:25:04.560 --> 0:25:08.000
<v Speaker 1>Ribban's cars are way more expensive than gas riven cars. Um.

0:25:08.280 --> 0:25:11.159
<v Speaker 1>So in times are tight, those are the purchases that

0:25:11.200 --> 0:25:14.400
<v Speaker 1>are going to be you know, taken down first by consumers. Yeah,

0:25:14.400 --> 0:25:16.119
<v Speaker 1>but you know, I guess the big picture here is

0:25:16.160 --> 0:25:20.520
<v Speaker 1>that electric is the future, internal combustion engine isn't. And

0:25:20.720 --> 0:25:23.160
<v Speaker 1>the question is who are the companies that are gonna

0:25:23.160 --> 0:25:25.440
<v Speaker 1>be leading this. And I think there's another question too

0:25:25.480 --> 0:25:29.040
<v Speaker 1>about how investors value these companies. Are they actually valued

0:25:29.080 --> 0:25:32.159
<v Speaker 1>as traditional automakers or now they're realizing they should be

0:25:32.200 --> 0:25:36.120
<v Speaker 1>valued as traditional automakers, or are they valued as tech companies? Right?

0:25:36.160 --> 0:25:38.440
<v Speaker 1>I mean that is sort of the main debate that

0:25:38.520 --> 0:25:41.119
<v Speaker 1>we have always had and still have on Tesla and

0:25:41.119 --> 0:25:44.359
<v Speaker 1>its valuation. Is Tesla a tech company? Is Tesla car company?

0:25:44.440 --> 0:25:46.600
<v Speaker 1>Or is it like some sort of an amalgamation of

0:25:47.000 --> 0:25:50.680
<v Speaker 1>of the two? Right? For Tesla, again, it still does

0:25:50.680 --> 0:25:54.040
<v Speaker 1>not tread like a car company. It's it's valuation is

0:25:54.080 --> 0:25:58.400
<v Speaker 1>still bigger than the combined valuation of GM Ford, still

0:25:58.480 --> 0:26:03.000
<v Speaker 1>Antis and if into Yota, it's incredible even with the decline, right,

0:26:03.840 --> 0:26:07.840
<v Speaker 1>But Tesla has a lot of benefit behind it because

0:26:07.920 --> 0:26:10.560
<v Speaker 1>of that significant market cap, also because it had the

0:26:10.560 --> 0:26:14.320
<v Speaker 1>beginner's advantage, right, like it had like ten fifteen years

0:26:14.320 --> 0:26:17.560
<v Speaker 1>of like a strong run, and it has a massed

0:26:17.600 --> 0:26:21.399
<v Speaker 1>this massive, you know, market value, which also is like

0:26:21.440 --> 0:26:25.440
<v Speaker 1>a fundamental benefit of the company. The Ribvians and Lucids

0:26:25.600 --> 0:26:27.720
<v Speaker 1>don't have that. It's could it could just end up

0:26:27.760 --> 0:26:31.960
<v Speaker 1>being a timing issue for them. Um, it's honorable market.

0:26:31.960 --> 0:26:35.120
<v Speaker 1>We're heading into recession. Um. Evies are the future, yes,

0:26:35.440 --> 0:26:37.359
<v Speaker 1>but the going will be tough for the next couple

0:26:37.359 --> 0:26:40.880
<v Speaker 1>of years for the sector. Who can really go get

0:26:40.920 --> 0:26:43.359
<v Speaker 1>through that? That that that that's the main question that

0:26:43.440 --> 0:26:46.560
<v Speaker 1>investors have, and that's the that's the questions, a lot

0:26:46.560 --> 0:26:48.199
<v Speaker 1>of questions with them beating down so much, to do

0:26:48.200 --> 0:26:50.240
<v Speaker 1>they become potentially a buyout target with somebody who just

0:26:50.240 --> 0:26:52.000
<v Speaker 1>wants to kind especially when you have such a cash

0:26:52.080 --> 0:26:54.440
<v Speaker 1>position for some of them and the balance right, it

0:26:54.520 --> 0:26:58.600
<v Speaker 1>just you're buying the market cabinet and the cash balance,

0:26:59.560 --> 0:27:02.480
<v Speaker 1>which lating now I know we are. We're totally um

0:27:02.520 --> 0:27:04.439
<v Speaker 1>a should day. Thank you so much, really appreciate it.

0:27:04.440 --> 0:27:06.800
<v Speaker 1>She's Bloomberg News Equity markets reporter. You can check out

0:27:06.840 --> 0:27:15.880
<v Speaker 1>more of her story on the terminal. I'm broc journal. Yeah,

0:27:15.960 --> 0:27:19.560
<v Speaker 1>but you let me drive? No, no, no, who's going home?

0:27:20.119 --> 0:27:25.720
<v Speaker 1>All right? Please? I'll do gravels. I want to drive.

0:27:26.560 --> 0:27:32.720
<v Speaker 1>It's good question. Drive. This is the Drive to the

0:27:32.800 --> 0:27:40.359
<v Speaker 1>Clothes on Bloomberg Radio. What's just about seventeen and a

0:27:40.400 --> 0:27:43.840
<v Speaker 1>half minutes left today's trading session. We've been bouncing around,

0:27:43.840 --> 0:27:46.080
<v Speaker 1>certainly on the equity side of things. We are off

0:27:46.600 --> 0:27:50.119
<v Speaker 1>our highs and lows of the session, Charlie Cross breaking

0:27:50.119 --> 0:27:52.240
<v Speaker 1>it down, and then of course we get Netflix earnings

0:27:52.280 --> 0:27:54.160
<v Speaker 1>after the closing bell. That's gonna be a big focal point,

0:27:54.440 --> 0:27:57.720
<v Speaker 1>certainly for our coverage here at Bloomberg, and we're gonna

0:27:57.760 --> 0:28:00.440
<v Speaker 1>do a deep dive into those results before it there, though,

0:28:00.480 --> 0:28:04.080
<v Speaker 1>let's do a deep dive into today's trade and has

0:28:04.080 --> 0:28:06.879
<v Speaker 1>in store if anyone can tell us, perhaps it Tanks Smith,

0:28:06.960 --> 0:28:10.400
<v Speaker 1>chief investment officer at Have It for Trust, based in Radnor, Pennsylvania,

0:28:10.520 --> 0:28:12.720
<v Speaker 1>joining us on the phone from there this afternoon. Hank,

0:28:12.760 --> 0:28:15.760
<v Speaker 1>how are you good? Afternoon, Tim? I'm doing great man.

0:28:15.800 --> 0:28:17.639
<v Speaker 1>Happy New Year. Happy New Year to you as well.

0:28:17.640 --> 0:28:19.679
<v Speaker 1>It's good to have you with us. So we just

0:28:19.680 --> 0:28:22.479
<v Speaker 1>talked to Steve Matthews on our Bloomber Economics team, and

0:28:22.760 --> 0:28:24.560
<v Speaker 1>I was not wrong. It does sound like the Fed

0:28:24.640 --> 0:28:27.119
<v Speaker 1>officials are saying the same exact thing over and over again.

0:28:27.359 --> 0:28:29.600
<v Speaker 1>But they're doing it for good reason, certainly because they,

0:28:29.640 --> 0:28:31.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, they want to make sure that their messages

0:28:31.720 --> 0:28:35.320
<v Speaker 1>is getting across. Um. What's the message that that you're hearing, Hank,

0:28:35.359 --> 0:28:37.760
<v Speaker 1>And what's it telling you about what equities are going

0:28:37.800 --> 0:28:41.680
<v Speaker 1>to do this year. Well, look, I'm very encouraged by

0:28:41.760 --> 0:28:46.720
<v Speaker 1>said policy because they are taking their inflation mandates seriously.

0:28:47.080 --> 0:28:50.200
<v Speaker 1>Forget about the past mistakes, let's look forward. They do

0:28:50.280 --> 0:28:52.600
<v Speaker 1>not want to repeat the mistakes of the seventies that

0:28:52.720 --> 0:28:57.200
<v Speaker 1>stop go, stop, go, stop go, that allowed inflationary expectations

0:28:57.240 --> 0:29:00.440
<v Speaker 1>to continue to build for eight years. So yes, I

0:29:00.440 --> 0:29:03.000
<v Speaker 1>think there might be a little bit more pain UH

0:29:03.000 --> 0:29:05.400
<v Speaker 1>in the near term, but I think we should have

0:29:05.520 --> 0:29:07.880
<v Speaker 1>confidence that they're doing the right thing and it will

0:29:07.920 --> 0:29:13.040
<v Speaker 1>be good for long term investors to get inflation down. Also,

0:29:13.160 --> 0:29:15.200
<v Speaker 1>any time you go into a bear market, as we

0:29:15.240 --> 0:29:18.400
<v Speaker 1>did in two thousand and twenty two, UH, your return

0:29:18.440 --> 0:29:23.200
<v Speaker 1>expectations have to rise. In fact, percent of the time

0:29:23.320 --> 0:29:26.320
<v Speaker 1>markets fall into bear market territory returns or positives a

0:29:26.440 --> 0:29:30.520
<v Speaker 1>year later. Add to that, we just had mid term

0:29:30.600 --> 0:29:35.280
<v Speaker 1>elections and since nineteen forty two markets have had positive

0:29:35.280 --> 0:29:39.440
<v Speaker 1>returns in the twelve months following mid term elections. Had

0:29:39.520 --> 0:29:43.360
<v Speaker 1>is a lot of data points to hang your hat on. Finally,

0:29:43.680 --> 0:29:48.960
<v Speaker 1>UM two more, um uh two more. Items. UH evaluations

0:29:48.960 --> 0:29:52.760
<v Speaker 1>are reasonable. UH. Small caps and mid cap stocks are

0:29:53.080 --> 0:29:57.400
<v Speaker 1>selling around thirteen fourteen times earnings UH. The equal way

0:29:57.440 --> 0:30:01.160
<v Speaker 1>at SMP selling a thirteen time learning, so we don't

0:30:01.200 --> 0:30:06.800
<v Speaker 1>think evaluations are headwind. And then finally, investment sentiment UH

0:30:07.000 --> 0:30:10.120
<v Speaker 1>is really hasn't been this bad in decades. That's hard

0:30:10.120 --> 0:30:12.560
<v Speaker 1>to believe that it's it's even lower. In other words,

0:30:12.760 --> 0:30:16.560
<v Speaker 1>the bearishness level is greater, the bullishness level is lower

0:30:16.560 --> 0:30:18.560
<v Speaker 1>than it was in oh eight oh nine. I still

0:30:18.560 --> 0:30:23.200
<v Speaker 1>have bruises and scars from that period. Than let me

0:30:23.280 --> 0:30:25.240
<v Speaker 1>jump in for a second, not to be Debbie down here,

0:30:25.320 --> 0:30:31.160
<v Speaker 1>but our Tatiana Dari Dary great column on the Bloomberg

0:30:31.200 --> 0:30:32.960
<v Speaker 1>I think it's part of our day break coverage early

0:30:33.080 --> 0:30:36.000
<v Speaker 1>this morning, and she noted only a mild earnings recession

0:30:36.040 --> 0:30:37.840
<v Speaker 1>is priced into stocks. The good news is that the

0:30:37.840 --> 0:30:41.040
<v Speaker 1>profit downturn hitting America may already be priced in thanks

0:30:41.080 --> 0:30:43.960
<v Speaker 1>to how much analye have dialed back profit forecasts. The

0:30:44.000 --> 0:30:46.800
<v Speaker 1>bad news is there's a major caveat. If the economy

0:30:46.840 --> 0:30:49.280
<v Speaker 1>left is into recession in the second half, stocks probably

0:30:49.320 --> 0:30:53.080
<v Speaker 1>have further to fall. The point is, you know analysts

0:30:53.440 --> 0:30:57.640
<v Speaker 1>um have not necessarily maybe priced that in, that the

0:30:57.720 --> 0:31:01.160
<v Speaker 1>earnings estimates, the current estimates are probably lead too optimistic,

0:31:01.200 --> 0:31:05.080
<v Speaker 1>and that that leaves open a door for the SMP

0:31:05.280 --> 0:31:09.960
<v Speaker 1>five hundred to drop even further than we're planning for now,

0:31:10.000 --> 0:31:14.440
<v Speaker 1>how do you factor that in or do you disregard that? Well?

0:31:14.680 --> 0:31:17.320
<v Speaker 1>I think there is a chance that the SMP five

0:31:18.720 --> 0:31:24.640
<v Speaker 1>gets a lower low than the October twenty two low um.

0:31:24.680 --> 0:31:28.040
<v Speaker 1>But again, our our view is it's likely that we're

0:31:28.040 --> 0:31:31.280
<v Speaker 1>going to have a recession, but equally as likely that

0:31:31.320 --> 0:31:35.479
<v Speaker 1>it's going to be mild and brief. And look, the market,

0:31:36.000 --> 0:31:41.280
<v Speaker 1>the stock market is a forward anticipatory of vehicle and

0:31:41.600 --> 0:31:47.280
<v Speaker 1>UH consistently bottoms ahead of when a recession ends. But

0:31:47.360 --> 0:31:49.720
<v Speaker 1>if we do have a recession, is likely that stocks

0:31:49.760 --> 0:31:54.400
<v Speaker 1>go of a little bit lower of from from these levels.

0:31:54.600 --> 0:31:56.960
<v Speaker 1>But there's a chance that this recession is going to

0:31:57.040 --> 0:32:00.720
<v Speaker 1>be so mild that they'll call the soft ending. But

0:32:00.880 --> 0:32:03.680
<v Speaker 1>would you can see though that if indeed we're not

0:32:03.920 --> 0:32:06.120
<v Speaker 1>earnings estimates haven't come down enough and that things are

0:32:06.120 --> 0:32:09.040
<v Speaker 1>worse than everybody's talking about. This is this is why

0:32:09.120 --> 0:32:11.400
<v Speaker 1>you see kind of the trade that we're seeing over

0:32:11.440 --> 0:32:13.600
<v Speaker 1>the last couple of days. People just don't quite know

0:32:13.640 --> 0:32:16.520
<v Speaker 1>what kind of a downturn and how long it impacts earnings.

0:32:16.560 --> 0:32:18.760
<v Speaker 1>If it goes on for longer than that than what's

0:32:18.800 --> 0:32:23.320
<v Speaker 1>being already priced in that's more problematic for stocks. Correct. Well,

0:32:23.480 --> 0:32:26.920
<v Speaker 1>that's yeah, you said it correctly that the volatility we've

0:32:26.960 --> 0:32:30.440
<v Speaker 1>seen uh this week, UH is really a reflection of

0:32:30.480 --> 0:32:33.840
<v Speaker 1>that battle between um, do we get to go under

0:32:33.880 --> 0:32:37.960
<v Speaker 1>recession do we not? And how badly our corporate profits

0:32:38.240 --> 0:32:40.959
<v Speaker 1>are going to come down? But I mean there are

0:32:41.000 --> 0:32:44.520
<v Speaker 1>some talents the corporate profits. One, the dollar is well

0:32:44.560 --> 0:32:50.640
<v Speaker 1>off its peak. That should be good for for multinational earnings. UH.

0:32:50.720 --> 0:32:56.120
<v Speaker 1>Corporations continue to do major cost cutting, inventories are lean UH,

0:32:56.200 --> 0:32:59.560
<v Speaker 1>and China re opening is going to be a positive

0:33:00.280 --> 0:33:04.600
<v Speaker 1>as well. So UM, you know maybe even in a

0:33:05.000 --> 0:33:10.120
<v Speaker 1>in a no growth or slight recession, UH, profits will

0:33:10.560 --> 0:33:13.800
<v Speaker 1>hold up better than one would think in that type

0:33:13.800 --> 0:33:16.880
<v Speaker 1>of environment. So okay, So if this is what what

0:33:16.920 --> 0:33:19.080
<v Speaker 1>we end up with, if this is what we indeed

0:33:19.120 --> 0:33:22.440
<v Speaker 1>see happening, Hank, then give us give us the sort

0:33:22.440 --> 0:33:25.960
<v Speaker 1>of outlook of allocations and what we should think about

0:33:25.960 --> 0:33:28.080
<v Speaker 1>in terms of equities and fixed income. Carol said it

0:33:28.120 --> 0:33:31.840
<v Speaker 1>earlier today, Um, you know, thinking differently maybe about portfolio

0:33:31.880 --> 0:33:35.800
<v Speaker 1>this year. Well, yeah, the you know, the idea that

0:33:35.880 --> 0:33:40.560
<v Speaker 1>the sixty forty portfolio is dead is very near term

0:33:40.840 --> 0:33:44.720
<v Speaker 1>near term thinking. Um, and I think there's a very

0:33:44.760 --> 0:33:47.480
<v Speaker 1>good chance we've already seen the peak in interest rates,

0:33:47.520 --> 0:33:51.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, with a tenure treasury at four point five

0:33:52.080 --> 0:33:55.760
<v Speaker 1>least fall we might not get back to that level.

0:33:56.080 --> 0:33:59.800
<v Speaker 1>But I think in terms of allocation, uh, and this

0:34:00.120 --> 0:34:04.400
<v Speaker 1>really kind of timeless recommendations that one should always have

0:34:04.520 --> 0:34:08.120
<v Speaker 1>the maximum exposure to equities that allows them to sleep

0:34:08.160 --> 0:34:11.480
<v Speaker 1>at night, and that varies from person to person. And

0:34:12.000 --> 0:34:17.000
<v Speaker 1>also in this environment, we still favor dividend paying companies

0:34:17.000 --> 0:34:20.200
<v Speaker 1>and companies that have a record of increasing dividends on

0:34:20.200 --> 0:34:24.319
<v Speaker 1>a regular basis. That's how you stay ahead of inflation. Um.

0:34:24.480 --> 0:34:28.520
<v Speaker 1>And I think there's going to be continued emphasis on

0:34:28.719 --> 0:34:32.400
<v Speaker 1>quality through two thousand and twenty three as there was

0:34:32.480 --> 0:34:36.200
<v Speaker 1>in two thousand and two. Uh. And there's going to

0:34:36.239 --> 0:34:39.160
<v Speaker 1>be volatility, there's no question about that. Yeah, that's for sure.

0:34:39.440 --> 0:34:42.360
<v Speaker 1>Um And Uh there's some great coverage to about you know,

0:34:42.400 --> 0:34:45.640
<v Speaker 1>this low VIX that we've seen for this protracted period

0:34:45.680 --> 0:34:51.200
<v Speaker 1>of time, what that potentially uh indicates about more volatility

0:34:51.280 --> 0:34:54.160
<v Speaker 1>or maybe some downside when it comes to equities. Hank Smith,

0:34:54.200 --> 0:34:56.040
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much, Chief Investment Officer. To have it

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<v Speaker 1>for trust based in Radar Pennsylvania joining us on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone from their folks. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

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