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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Happy Sunday. Welcome in to another episode of

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Speaker 1: the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Peralta. Guys

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Speaker 1: can fellow me because all of my socials at Sports

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Speaker 1: Talk Matt in. This podcast being brought to you by

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Speaker 1: a friend at DraftKings. Okay, winning day yesterday. If you

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Speaker 1: took everything, including the Ohio play that I recommended, you

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Speaker 1: had a three in one day. Officially though, we went

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Speaker 1: two and two, still a winning day, but I gave

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Speaker 1: the quarter unit back when I had a Texas money

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Speaker 1: line play live at plus two ninety. On the next play,

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Speaker 1: there was an interception that stalked in through that almost

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Speaker 1: lost the game for Georgia. But they win the game.

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Speaker 1: We win a unit from Georgia. We lose a quarter

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Speaker 1: unit there, so we one point two Toy five lost

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Speaker 1: a quarter units up a unit there. Arizona State and

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Speaker 1: Iowa State. If you bet Arizona State really you won

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Speaker 1: that game too, so you would have gone four and one.

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Speaker 1: I didn't bet that I should have. I just bet

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Speaker 1: over fifty and a half. That came in for one unit,

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Speaker 1: not one point one unit. It came in for one unit,

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Speaker 1: and then we lost one point one units. Because Penn

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Speaker 1: State's defense is trash, So mark that down for the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Not so much when they play at home and Happy

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Speaker 1: Valley in the first round, but when they go to

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Speaker 1: the quarterfinals, that defense is not very good. It's overrated.

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Speaker 1: I overrated Penn State's defense in James Franklin now goes

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Speaker 1: to a whopping one in seventeen straight up against top

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Speaker 1: five teams in his career one in seventeen. Guess who's

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Speaker 1: not winning the bracket? Who's not winning the national championship?

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Speaker 1: The Depenn State with that defense in James Franklin, they

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Speaker 1: scored a lot of points but couldn't stop in Oregon

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Speaker 1: to save their lives. So up point nine units on

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Speaker 1: the day. So this will try out to be a

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Speaker 1: very good depending on really regardless of what happens here

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Speaker 1: today on a Sunday. If we have a winning day,

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Speaker 1: that's great. If we don't, it doesn't really matter. We

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Speaker 1: will be profitable regardless of what happens here today. If

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Speaker 1: I lose every bet go oh and four and on,

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Speaker 1: lose the props and everything else, it won't really matter.

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Speaker 1: But got four bets for you guys here today, I'll

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Speaker 1: have four player props for you, coming at you on

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Speaker 1: the live stream at nine am Pacific time at noon

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Speaker 1: Eastern on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Andrew Erickson and

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Speaker 1: myself will take it through all the games here today

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Speaker 1: for the NFL. Then in between the afternoon games and

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Speaker 1: before the Sunday night game between the Chiefs and the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: I will break down the bracket from a betting perspective

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Speaker 1: on the Discord channel. We'll have the twelve team bracket.

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Speaker 1: We'll have some line move we'll have all the numbers

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Speaker 1: who have come out the books. Will take a couple

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Speaker 1: of hours to go ahead and put all the numbers up,

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Speaker 1: and there'll be some initial bets taken on the number

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Speaker 1: for the four games in round number one, and we'll

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Speaker 1: also look at the future wagers as to what the

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Speaker 1: past will be. I cannot believe Indiana is going to

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Speaker 1: be a part of this field. I cannot believe Boise

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Speaker 1: State could be a three seed, which is a clown show.

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Speaker 1: At least it looks like Arizona State's going to get

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Speaker 1: a bye, which is right, they'll get a buye here,

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Speaker 1: But I mean Boise getting a bye is ridiculous in

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Speaker 1: my opinion. But sure, Alabama being left out. I'm not

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Speaker 1: in favor of it, but I get it. Next year,

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Speaker 1: I think we will have a real conversation about schedule strength.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Penn State gave up half a hundred to Oregon.

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Speaker 1: Indiana beat nobody, and I mean nobody this year, didn't

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Speaker 1: play anybody and didn't beat anybody. Yet they're in this field.

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Speaker 1: You've got an Ohio State team that lost as a

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Speaker 1: double digit home favorite, lost at home, lost on the

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Speaker 1: road to Oregon as well. I mean, there's just a

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Speaker 1: lot of questions about the schedule strength of the Big Ten.

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Speaker 1: Why is the Big Ten getting four teams? It's kind

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Speaker 1: of interesting they're getting four teams, the ACC two, but

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Speaker 1: the SEC is getting three. Huh. Okay, sure, that's an

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Speaker 1: interesting not really not really something I would do. But

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Speaker 1: we'll see what the committee ends up doing. We'll break

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Speaker 1: it all down, coming up with you guys here for

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Speaker 1: a Oh wait, the cat, no cat hold on. Okay,

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Speaker 1: no cat, I'm not doing that again. I know better

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Speaker 1: keeping the cat out that would be bad. We'll leave

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Speaker 1: that in too. But no cat jumping up behind me

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Speaker 1: like last time. No way, Marshmallo will stay ahead of

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Speaker 1: the video today. But we'll do this between so at

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Speaker 1: five o'clock Pacific, eight o'clock Eastern, we'll do it up

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Speaker 1: to kickoff for the Sunday night game, breaking down the

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Speaker 1: bracket from a college football p second on the Discord

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Speaker 1: channel bettingpros dot Com slash chat to be a part

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Speaker 1: of that. If you're not already in the Discord channel,

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Speaker 1: come on over. I will do it. It's on the

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Speaker 1: d on the Matt Stages live chat. We'll do on

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Speaker 1: our discord So I'll talk with you guys, take questions,

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Speaker 1: we can argue, and if you are a big Indian

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Speaker 1: a person, come at me and let's argue. Because I

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Speaker 1: can't wait to see what you guys are going to say.

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Speaker 1: Because you're getting boat raced in your first game. You're

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Speaker 1: gonna get me on the road and you're gonna get

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Speaker 1: boat raced in your first game. But more on that

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Speaker 1: later Today. This podcast being brought to you by DraftKings

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Speaker 1: DraftKings dot com slash promos. Okay, let's talk about the

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Speaker 1: games here today. We've got four four bets to give

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Speaker 1: you guys. I have two straight bets, one total and

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Speaker 1: one teaser to give you guys here on the Daily Juice.

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Speaker 1: Let's start here with the uh, well, what do we

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Speaker 1: want to start with? Let's start with the Cardinals. The

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Speaker 1: Cardinals are at home, laying two and a half points.

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Speaker 1: The Cardinals have been sneaky this year. They've mean sneaky.

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Speaker 1: It's a divisional game. The Cardinals last three home games,

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Speaker 1: they have not allowed a single touchdown to the opposing team.

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Speaker 1: Twenty six drives, no touchdowns, six points by the Jets,

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Speaker 1: twelve points by the Bears, and eight points by the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: It's pretty good. It's pretty good. The Cardinals have stunk

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Speaker 1: against the West, However, against the NC West, they are

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Speaker 1: four and eleven ats since the start of the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two season. That's the least profitable team against their

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Speaker 1: divisional opponents. Kyler Murray against the West in his career

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Speaker 1: is horrible, nine fifteen in two He's five thirteen and

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Speaker 1: one against the Seahawks. However, however, the Seahawks travel schedule

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Speaker 1: is insane. The Seahawks will be, according to the Action Network,

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Speaker 1: just the eleven teams since two thousand and three, to

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Speaker 1: play a road game in New York against the Jets

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Speaker 1: or the Giants and then have a travel cross country

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Speaker 1: to play again in either the Mountain or Pacific time zone.

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Speaker 1: Those teams are failing to cover the spread by nearly

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Speaker 1: six points per game and already lost it once this year.

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Speaker 1: When the Patriots traveled to San Francisco in Week twelve,

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Speaker 1: they're home against they were home against the Cardinals. Then

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Speaker 1: in Week thirteen they traveled across the country to the Jets,

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Speaker 1: and now in Week fourteen they're coming back across the

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Speaker 1: country to play the Cardinals. Teams that go from the

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Speaker 1: Pacific to the East and then back to either the

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Speaker 1: Mountain time or Pacific time are thirty fifty eight to

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Speaker 1: one ATS. That's thirty four percent over the last ten years,

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Speaker 1: failing to cover the spread by an average of three

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Speaker 1: point six points per game. That is not good. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the Arizona pass rush has been pretty good. Defensively, they've

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Speaker 1: been pretty good. Gino Smith in his career has been

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Speaker 1: pretty good against bad defenses and are against good defense

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Speaker 1: rather that push. But he's nine twenty seven nineteen and

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Speaker 1: one when facing a defense with a below four percent sacrate.

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Speaker 1: But he's nine seventeen and three ATS when he's facing

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Speaker 1: a defense with a four percent or higher sacrate. The

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Speaker 1: Cardinals come in at a four point three percent sacrate

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Speaker 1: on the year. We are laying the two and a

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Speaker 1: half points with the Arizona Cardinals Arizona minus two and

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Speaker 1: a half up against the Seattle Seahawks bet number two,

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Speaker 1: and this game. This game is a little bit like

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Speaker 1: hold your nose. The Raiders are starting Aidan O'Connell, who's

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Speaker 1: been pretty good as a starter, against Baker Mayfield, who's

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Speaker 1: been as a favorite. They got Brack Bauers on this team.

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Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield as a starter hasn't been great, okay, but

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Speaker 1: he is. He's been better with this team. With the Bucks.

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Speaker 1: Last week, the Bucks were six and a half point favorites.

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Speaker 1: They barely got to win in overtime. They did not cover.

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Speaker 1: In his career, Baker Mayfield is seventeen twenty eight and

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Speaker 1: one ATS as a favorite. That makes him the third

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Speaker 1: worst quarterback of the ninety eight to play in the

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Speaker 1: NFL since he was drafted. The Raiders crazily enough when

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Speaker 1: they go across the country road teams who are based

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Speaker 1: in the Pacific time zone. When they play in the East,

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Speaker 1: they're eighty eight fifty three and four against the spread,

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Speaker 1: including eleven eight and one ATS this year. It's wild, right, bodyclock, okay,

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Speaker 1: when they play it's a bodyclock thing. So they go east.

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Speaker 1: They're just everyone thinks they're going to play poorly, and

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Speaker 1: they don't. They play better. It's kind of amazing, but

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Speaker 1: they do. The Bucks and the Panthers played overtime last

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Speaker 1: week and are playing on eight days. Rest or less.

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Speaker 1: Teams that are on this are have been one to

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Speaker 1: eleven one forty three forty four percent to a cover

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Speaker 1: over the last decade. Under five hundred over the last

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Speaker 1: three years ats as well so the Bucks in overtime

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Speaker 1: last week against the Panthers. As they come back home

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Speaker 1: now and take on a Raider team coming across the

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Speaker 1: country with Aidan O'Connell who's been pretty good. The Raiders

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Speaker 1: have been behind in every single game this year. However,

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Speaker 1: in all twelve of their games this year, they've been

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Speaker 1: down by ten or more points to the first team

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Speaker 1: to do that since nineteen eighty six, just the third

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Speaker 1: team ever to do that, with the eighty six Colts

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Speaker 1: and the seventy two Patriots. The ASEX Colts fell behind

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Speaker 1: double j's in sixteen straight games. But they fall behind

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Speaker 1: and they come back. I mean they in the second half.

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Speaker 1: They make a game, which is amazingly enough. And Aan

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Speaker 1: O'Connell has been a decent quarterback against the number, more

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Speaker 1: than decent quarterback against the number. I'm going to take

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Speaker 1: the seven points here. Give me the Raiders plus seven

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Speaker 1: on the road against Baker Mayfield. I think Baker wins,

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Speaker 1: but Baker against the number is not good. I think

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Speaker 1: this Raiders defense can hang around. I like the Raiders

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Speaker 1: to keep it close. Raiders plus seven for one point

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Speaker 1: one units. Okay to the one total. We've talked a

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Speaker 1: ton about this Sunday Night football. Unders have just been very,

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Speaker 1: very profitable, and this is the Chargers at the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: on Sunday Night. Patrick Mahomes has stunk against the number

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Speaker 1: he does own, the AFC West. However, incredibly enough, he's

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Speaker 1: o three and one ats against the AFC West this year.

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Speaker 1: He's four to ten and one ats over the last

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Speaker 1: four years against his own division. The four ten and

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Speaker 1: one ats mark is the worst for any quarterback in

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Speaker 1: the NFL over that span against his own division. It's remarkable.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't make any sense. However, Mahomes is nine and

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Speaker 1: two straight up against the Chargers in his career, but

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Speaker 1: just four five and two ats overall, two four and

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Speaker 1: one ats against Justin Herbert. Mahomes six wins versus Herbert

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Speaker 1: is the second most versus any quarterback. It's the most

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Speaker 1: versus Derek Carr, where he was nine and one straight

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Speaker 1: up against Derek Carr. When Mahome faces teams allowing seventeen

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Speaker 1: points or fewer in his career, he's thirteen and two

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Speaker 1: straight up. That's unbelievable. However, the Chargers as an underdog

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Speaker 1: of more than three points. Justin Herbert is ten two

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Speaker 1: in one ATS in his career, including a six one

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Speaker 1: in one ATS mark against the AFC West. I love

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Speaker 1: a same game teaser here in this game, guys, I

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Speaker 1: love a same game teaser. I love taking the Chargers

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Speaker 1: up to ten and then taking the total from forty

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Speaker 1: three up to forty nine and going under. I will

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Speaker 1: one one hundred percent do that, But since I already

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Speaker 1: have one teaser going, I don't like doing more than

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Speaker 1: one teaser officially here, so I'm gonna play the under.

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Speaker 1: And the reason is Justin Herbert has been an under machine,

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Speaker 1: like just an under machine in his career, and I

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Speaker 1: don't entirely know why, but the Chargers are eight and

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Speaker 1: four to the under in full game totals this season.

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Speaker 1: They're twenty to nine to the under since the start

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Speaker 1: of last year. Justin Herbert is now eighteen and seven

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Speaker 1: to the under since the start of last season, including

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Speaker 1: an eighteen and five record to the under in his

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Speaker 1: last twenty three starts. And Sunday Night Football has been

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Speaker 1: a dead under game this season, historically dead under under

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Speaker 1: forty three for one point one units for the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: and the Chargers, and finally we go to the teaser.

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Speaker 1: The teaser is going to be an interesting play for

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Speaker 1: us because I'm looking at the Bears and the Giants.

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Speaker 1: If you're watching this, you can see this. See this

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Speaker 1: Bears plus nine, Giants plus nine and a half, the

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Speaker 1: Bears at plus four. Here comes the dead cat bounce

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Speaker 1: for the Bears. Okay, I think the Bears cover the

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Speaker 1: four by themselves, but I'll tease it up. But the

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Speaker 1: dead cat bounce has been a real thing teams. There

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Speaker 1: have been forty teams to fire their coach during the

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Speaker 1: regular season since two thousand and three. Those teams have

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Speaker 1: gone eighteen and twenty two straight up in twenty three

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Speaker 1: and seventeen against the spread in the first game following

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Speaker 1: their firing, which is amazingly enough. So you fire a

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Speaker 1: team mid mid season, you get a bounce. The Browns

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Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen fired Hugh Jackson amazingly enough, and they

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Speaker 1: went five to three. Isn't often a team fires a

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Speaker 1: head coach mid season after going above five hundred ats

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Speaker 1: in the year. Ebraflus Matt Eberflus became just a fifth

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Speaker 1: head coach in two thousand and three to do that.

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Speaker 1: In the only one three or three plus games above

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Speaker 1: five hundred ats. Hugh Jackson it was five and three

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Speaker 1: ATS in twenty eighteen. He got fired. Ibra Flus was

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Speaker 1: seven to four and one ATS on the year and

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Speaker 1: he got fired. Dead cat bounce Bears plus nine. Will

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Speaker 1: take that from four or from three? Rather it's three.

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Speaker 1: Now that number is let's see where's the Bears. It

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Speaker 1: was three this morning. It's a going below three for

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Speaker 1: the Bears. I can't imagine it would, but no, it's three.

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Speaker 1: So take from Bears to three up to nine against

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Speaker 1: the forty nine ers, and then we'll go to the Giants.

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Speaker 1: And look, you know, ain't a bit of the Giants.

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Speaker 1: It's scary, but they're at home against the Saints. And look,

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Speaker 1: Derek Carr stinks. He just stinks, and he sinks against

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Speaker 1: bad defenses too, which is amazing enough. The Giants aren't

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Speaker 1: any good. There are six games, so there are on

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Speaker 1: a seven game ATS losing streak. This is the longest

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Speaker 1: Giant streak against the number as a franchise in the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl era. If the Giants don't cover on Sunday,

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Speaker 1: they would also own a five game ATS at home

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Speaker 1: losing streak. Again, the longest as a franchise since two

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Speaker 1: thousand and three, when they lost seven straight games at

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Speaker 1: home against the Number. Giants have just absolutely stunk, okay.

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Speaker 1: Brian Dabble is six and four in extended prep as

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Speaker 1: the Giants head coach. They played on Thanksgiving, now they're

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Speaker 1: playing on Sunday. He is over five hundred ATS with

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Speaker 1: both Tommy Devido and Daniel Jones playing on extended rest.

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Speaker 1: But here we are with Drew Locke playing quarterback today

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Speaker 1: for the Giants. Cold weather at MetLife, which is not

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Speaker 1: good for Derek Carr. When he's a favorite. In conditions

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Speaker 1: below forty below fifty degrees, he's one in four ats,

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Speaker 1: failing to cover by seven point four points per game.

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Speaker 1: And Derek Carr as a favorite, he's twenty two thirty

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Speaker 1: nine and two ats as a favorite. That's the worst

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Speaker 1: mark of any quarterback since two thousand and three. As

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Speaker 1: a road favorite, Derek Carr is one fourteen and one

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Speaker 1: ats in sixteen spots. The one lone covery on the

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Speaker 1: road as a favorite was against the Colts Indoors. Tease

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Speaker 1: it up. Giants probably cover it by themselves, but I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna tease it up to nine and a half one

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Speaker 1: point two units down Bears plus nine Giants plus nine

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Speaker 1: and a half. Okay, So the official card for today

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Speaker 1: on Sunday for the Daily Juice Cardinals laying two and

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Speaker 1: a half at home against the Seahawks Raiders, catching seven

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Speaker 1: on the road against the Bucks Raiders. Sorry, that should

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Speaker 1: say Chiefs, not Raiders. Sorry Chiefs and the Chargers under

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Speaker 1: forty three on Sunday night. But I love the same

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Speaker 1: game teaser in that game to tease it up to

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Speaker 1: nine and put the forty three up to forty nine

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Speaker 1: and go under. And then the teaser official is Bears

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Speaker 1: plus nine Giants plus nine and a half. I will

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Speaker 1: talk to you on the live stream at noon Easter

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Speaker 1: with Andrew Erickson for my player props. They'll give you

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Speaker 1: guys here plus breakdown every game in line movement. And

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Speaker 1: Andrew and I were talking about every game on the

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Speaker 1: card for Sunday. I'll give you picks and plays and

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Speaker 1: thoughts there and after the game, the late games and

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Speaker 1: before the Sunday night game on the Discord channel OUP

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Speaker 1: break down the bracket from a betting perspective for the

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Speaker 1: College Football National Championship, the first ever twelve team bracket.

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Speaker 1: We will do that coming up at about five o'clock

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Speaker 1: Pacific eight pm Eastern time on the Discord channel bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot Com slash chat to join Minus Matt Parol fom

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Speaker 1: mecause all socials at Sports Doc Matt. Every morning, it's

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Speaker 1: the Daily Juice podcast presented by Draftkicks