1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: This is Football four oh one K broadcasting on Dallas 2 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:08,160 Speaker 1: Cowboys dot Com and the official Dallas Cowboys Happen Now 3 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: your hosts Bow Repka and RJ Choppy, Welcome to episode 4 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 1: eight the Oho of the Football four oh one K. 5 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:20,599 Speaker 1: I am RJ Choppy of one oh five three The 6 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: Fan of Dallas Catch being Monday through Friday five thirty 7 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: to ten on the Fan with Sean Sharif Troy Hughes. 8 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 1: He is Bo Repka of the Football and Glory Hole, 9 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 1: and collectively we are the greatest football betting podcast there 10 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:39,879 Speaker 1: is because we do nothing but dominate and win. And 11 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:42,279 Speaker 1: that was evident over the last couple of weeks. Let's 12 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 1: see you know Week two for me I was one 13 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 1: and seven and since then straight dominance nine and three. 14 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: Last week twelve and four of the week before, we've 15 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 1: been killing it on the podcast. We've been killing it 16 00:00:57,400 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 1: on your picks that you have on your website. Bow, 17 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: let's recap what we had last week nine to three, 18 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: twenty and thirteen for you guys in the football Glory 19 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 1: Hold two one right here on the podcast. It's rob Baby. 20 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:12,399 Speaker 1: We've been rolling, but good lesson in there for everybody watching. 21 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 1: So you're gonna go through ups and you're gonna go 22 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:16,960 Speaker 1: through downs right. If you're a good handicapper as we are, 23 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 1: you're gonna come out ahead at the end. But very 24 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: good lesson. Don't double up your units when you're up right, 25 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: and don't think them back down when you're down. They 26 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: heaving flow will work its way. I just keep that 27 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: consistency all year round and you'll come out ahead. And 28 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: if you just listen to us, promise you now. Last 29 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 1: week nine to three, Choppy killed it twenty thirteen for us, 30 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 1: like you said, two and one of the podcasts are 31 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: only lost on the pre picks of the podcast was 32 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,680 Speaker 1: UNC minus of seven. They were up thirty one seventeen 33 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,320 Speaker 1: at a halftime, but the third quarter got away from him. 34 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 1: Lost our margin, but it still took a touchdown for 35 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: Miami with three minutes left in the game for us 36 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 1: not to cover Miami to get that backdoor. It happens, right, 37 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: it does happen. But we did tell you to take 38 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 1: better minus six and in fact, Chopp, you can go 39 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 1: back and watch the podcast. We said our model had 40 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:06,559 Speaker 1: better between scoring between thirty five and forty BYU between 41 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. Final score thirty eight, twenty four. It 42 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: really doesn't get much sharper than that, right there, my friend, No, 43 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 1: it does not. That was a great pick too, by 44 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 1: the way, love that pick. And then we capped it 45 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 1: off with telling you, hey, you know the team hasn't 46 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 1: won a game getting the NFL and stinks real bad. Yeah, 47 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,239 Speaker 1: they're gonna go win and they did. That was Jacksonville 48 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 1: plus the three and a half. And you know, it 49 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 1: doesn't mean that we were fully right on the Jags 50 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 1: locker room reports being blown out of a a portion, but 51 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: it does mean that we're probably more right than we 52 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: were wrong about that, that the negativity wasn't quite as 53 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 1: bad as the narrative was put out there. And just remember, 54 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: like we said last week, the media is always going 55 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 1: to paint the negative with a heavier tone right than 56 00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 1: ever the anything positive a lighter side, because bad news 57 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: sells way more and everything is hunky dory, now, Choppy, 58 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:06,399 Speaker 1: I did want to get your thoughts on a couple 59 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 1: of things in that game. Number one, what are you 60 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:11,080 Speaker 1: what are you seeing in because I know you like 61 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence? What are you seeing in his progression? Because 62 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,079 Speaker 1: he saw he showed he's been showing progression week after 63 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: he's What are you seeing when he's playing? I think 64 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: it's quickness to throw to me, decision making is based 65 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:27,079 Speaker 1: off of how long you hold the football. I don't 66 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 1: really worry about how many interceptions you throw. Are you 67 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: on time with your throws? So when that receiver's making 68 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: his break, are you on time? And I think Trevor's 69 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: begetting it getting a little bit more on time with 70 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 1: his throws. Also, another thing that shows about quarterback play 71 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: is sacks. You know, how many sacks are you taking? 72 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: Quarterbacks take sacks. I think that a lot of people 73 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: just you know, chalk that up to he's got a 74 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: bad offensive line. Well, quarterbacks are a large part of 75 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: how good the offensive line is. Philip Rivers last year 76 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: was the cold the Colts quarterback, and now they switched 77 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: to Carson Wentz. Well, do you think it's a coincidence 78 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: that they're now hemorrhaging sacks with largely the same group, 79 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 1: or is it Philip Rivers got rid of the football 80 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 1: quicker because he's a borderline Hall of Famer and Carson 81 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: Wentz is a borderline backup. You know that that's one 82 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: thing why that's one of the reasons why I've always 83 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 1: liked Jared Goff is because Jared Goff is on time 84 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: as a thrower. He's a bad thrower, but he's on 85 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 1: He's at least he's on time bad Uh. So you know, 86 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 1: I think that there are certain things that guys are 87 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: just you know, quarterbacks get better with over time. Uh, 88 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: And that's one of them. So that's why I like 89 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: jackson Owas a long winded answer, but that's kind of 90 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,279 Speaker 1: why I like Jacksonville and like Trevor Lawrence. Yeah, a 91 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,280 Speaker 1: couple of great points in there, and I think thank 92 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 1: you know, Brady uh echoed your point when he was 93 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 1: it on the Manning Casters on something recently where he 94 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:04,600 Speaker 1: was talking about how the rules that really you know, 95 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 1: made quarterback play bad now because they don't have to 96 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:10,160 Speaker 1: worry about the receivers getting hit, they don't have to 97 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: think about all those little new one because he said, 98 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 1: it's your fault when your receiver has a negative play, 99 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: it's your fault when you take a say just exactly 100 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,360 Speaker 1: what you just said, and it's all the things that 101 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: rules have changed or he's that's what he said. He said, 102 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 1: it puts the onus of the defense and it punishes 103 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 1: the defense. Really it should be punishing us because it's 104 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 1: our fault an offense when we put ourselves in bad position. 105 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 1: So a lot more goes into that position than will 106 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:36,600 Speaker 1: ever know. That's why they can't find thirty two guys 107 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 1: on the entire planet. They can do it at an 108 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: even average level. Right, Yeah, that's how hard that job is. 109 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 1: And speaking a hard and that job. What are your 110 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 1: thoughts on too? And how? And I know you know 111 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys fan base always gets on the Cowboys 112 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,839 Speaker 1: of the over the t J Watt over taco thing. 113 00:05:57,760 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: But what if we were sitting here in the Cowboys 114 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 1: had Graft at two over Justin Herbert, Like, what do 115 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 1: you think that that fan base is feeling right about now? Oh? 116 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:10,720 Speaker 1: My god, I could only imagine. Um. Look, I think 117 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 1: a jury is still out on tah I got the 118 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 1: guy was hurt in college. Is last year he had 119 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 1: a I mean a posterior wall fracture. That's his femur 120 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 1: literally punched through his hip. That's what it did. It 121 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:35,039 Speaker 1: went through the hip and it cracked the head. That's 122 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:38,160 Speaker 1: a devastated injury. And the fact that he's even in 123 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: the NFL makes him a success story, So I did that. 124 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 1: I think a jury is still um a little bit 125 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: out onto Ah. That doesn't mean that he's gonna be 126 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: a good player. He may not, but I'm not ready 127 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 1: to write him off yet. And I think that, um, 128 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 1: they're just gonna have to deal with the fact that 129 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,280 Speaker 1: this guy's a beaten and a battered individual. He is 130 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:03,360 Speaker 1: a He's a quarterback that gets beat up and he 131 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 1: doesn't really recover well from it very often. So they 132 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 1: got to deal with that. But I'm not ready to 133 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: write him off yet. Yeah, I would agree with that. 134 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 1: I think though, you're starting to see some correlation because 135 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 1: we've had kind of an influx of the smaller quarterbacks. 136 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: Right the two is the Bankers, the Kyler Murray's. But 137 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 1: I think what you're starting to see the correlation is 138 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 1: the athletic versus the unathletic. So Baker's mostly unathletic right 139 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: at four eight forty. Guy two is mostly unathletic. I 140 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: mean people, for some reason, he got a narrative in 141 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 1: college he was athletic. He's never been a good athlete ever. 142 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: So you're seeing now Baker out this week right, injured 143 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 1: two oft injured right because they're smaller and unathletic, whereas 144 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 1: Kyler Murray is hyper hyper athletic and smaller, so that 145 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: maybe he can get you away with that a little 146 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 1: bit more. Drew Brees the only other example of a 147 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: small guy unathletic that didn't I mean, he never really 148 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 1: got hurt it. Actually he did get hurt in San Diego. 149 00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 1: But you know, he's a Hall of Famer. He's the 150 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 1: one outlier in that group. But I think I think 151 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:03,679 Speaker 1: if you're looking forward, that might be a strong correlation 152 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 1: to consider. If you're small, you better they have to 153 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 1: move a little bit because otherwise this league is probably 154 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 1: gonna beat you up. I mean, look at Lamar. Lamar's 155 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 1: hyper athletic and yeah, but he's pretty big dude. I 156 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 1: mean lark yeah, six two yeah. But I think a 157 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 1: lot of people said, yo, you can't win that way. 158 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 1: You can't win that way with a running quarterback. They're 159 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 1: gonna get hurt, and they might get hurt, but I 160 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 1: think they're gonna get hurt because of you know, they're 161 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 1: out there all the time, not necessarily size, if they're athletic. 162 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 1: You're right, the unathletic guys seem to be getting punished. Yeah, 163 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 1: because when you're when you're small and you can't move, 164 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: that's the bad combination. All right, Yeah, very bad, I mean, 165 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 1: especially in the NFL. All right. The other recap we 166 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 1: wanted to do was, um, the bookkeepers in Vegas took 167 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: an absolute bath this weekend shopping the NFL. This was 168 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:56,559 Speaker 1: It was a reported seven to ten million dollars loss 169 00:08:56,600 --> 00:09:00,599 Speaker 1: in town. One head bookmaker was clared in saying, this 170 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 1: is the type of day as a head bookmaker, I 171 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:04,599 Speaker 1: just want to go home and lock myself in a 172 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:09,679 Speaker 1: room with a full bottle of knob Creek. So not 173 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 1: so coincidentally, we also struggle in the NFL. We did 174 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 1: have a great week overall, but in NFL we went 175 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: three and four. Because when you're on the sharper side 176 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 1: of things, when the house loses, you're gonna lose. Right. 177 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,320 Speaker 1: When the public has a great day, you're not gonna 178 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: have such a good day. Right, But there's a reckoning 179 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:29,559 Speaker 1: and a bounce back coming for Joe public that I 180 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: can promise you. But go over a couple of games 181 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 1: that did crush Vegas all the popular favorites. First of all, 182 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:39,880 Speaker 1: covered Green Bay, covered in Chicago, right, and then you 183 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 1: had the Chiefs go out and cover seven points spread 184 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: on the road. When is the last time the Chiefs 185 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,679 Speaker 1: covered to spread period much less seven points and much 186 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: less on the road. They never knew that, and they 187 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:53,920 Speaker 1: went out and Patrick Holmes did not play well again, 188 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 1: and yet somehow they covered a seven point spread. That's 189 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: how bad Washington played. On Sunday, the Rams go on 190 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 1: the road and cover a nine and a half point 191 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 1: spread west coast to east coast on a noon kickoff. 192 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: That's prey gets covered around forty percent of the time 193 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 1: at that number of that time slot, in that situation. 194 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: They went out and it never even looked like they 195 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: weren't going to cover the nine points. It was never 196 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 1: even close. They blew them right out the water. And 197 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 1: the Colts just cover ten at home. I get to 198 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 1: walk in the park too, like they're just some team 199 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: that should be, you know, favored by ten over air, 200 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 1: which they shouldn't be. They just all covered, and then 201 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 1: even the popular dogs. It wasn't even just the favorite, 202 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:36,959 Speaker 1: although the favorites did go eight and four ats, which 203 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 1: first of all, that's a recipe for disaster for the 204 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: books in Vegas. But then't even the most popular dog. 205 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,839 Speaker 1: It was Arizona, right, forget about their head coach and 206 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 1: the supportator being now, Hi, who needs that guy? Who need? Well? 207 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:49,439 Speaker 1: I mean, we've got, you know, an undefeated team to 208 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: Colin Murray. We'll just go out there and beat the Browns, 209 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 1: beat the socks off of them. They went on the 210 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:55,599 Speaker 1: road to do it. And the Browns we all know, 211 00:10:55,800 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 1: are a solid team. They absolutely got crushed at home, right, 212 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,199 Speaker 1: and every person who just simply looked at the standings like, oh, 213 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:05,839 Speaker 1: this guy, these guys are undefeated. These guys lost a 214 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 1: couple of games out here's one hundred bucks on the 215 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: guys haven't lost the game. Of course, they're not gonna 216 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:12,559 Speaker 1: lose a game. They haven't lost one yet. Guess what 217 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: they did? It like they were Biff from Back to 218 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:17,480 Speaker 1: the Future, and they all cast, They all cast right. 219 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 1: The Raiders were the only dogs this week that Vegas 220 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 1: had money on, and we actually had them on one 221 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: of our online contests, but we didn't feel good enough 222 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: about making an official pick because we didn't really know 223 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: the uncertainty of the Gruden lost and you know, the 224 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: sharps and the public were all on Denver. It's like 225 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: all the money was on Denver, but we weren't on Denver, 226 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:40,559 Speaker 1: but our jad did hear you and Sean talk about 227 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:44,439 Speaker 1: the new coach factor and how that factors in, Because 228 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:46,199 Speaker 1: so could you like expand upon that or repeat it 229 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 1: for anybody? Like you know? Now, I don't know that 230 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 1: this was necessarily that because this is a good team, right. 231 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: The Raiders were a team that should have been four 232 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 1: and one coming into this game. You know, they should 233 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 1: have beat Chicago. They didn't beat because the team had 234 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 1: quit on John Gruden. Oh yeah. You know, normally when 235 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:08,199 Speaker 1: you get a new coach factor in, it's because the 236 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 1: team has quit, but they're also not very good. This 237 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 1: was different. This was a extenuating circumstance and they had 238 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 1: obviously clearly if they hadn't quit, they were just not 239 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 1: really paying attention to him on this week. So new 240 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,599 Speaker 1: coach comes in and it's just like what happens. You know, 241 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:29,439 Speaker 1: you get a speeding ticket, you drive a little safer 242 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: that first couple of miles, and then you go back 243 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:34,679 Speaker 1: to being ninety. The boss yells at you know, you 244 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 1: show up to work thirty minutes earlier than you usually do. 245 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 1: It's just, you know, it's a new coach. Theory and 246 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:47,719 Speaker 1: Rich Pisaccia, he's now the one in charge. If you 247 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 1: were on John Gruden's good side, but Rich didn't really 248 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 1: care for you because he thought you were lazy on 249 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: special teams. I was I gonna impact you. Now you 250 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:58,600 Speaker 1: gotta show out again. So you know that the new 251 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 1: coach theory. Again, I don't know if it was really 252 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 1: in play here, but we'd like to think it was. 253 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: It's not a bad theory. And like I said, that 254 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 1: was the only game that the house actually won some 255 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 1: money on. But Schoppy, the biggest blood bath of the 256 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: day came on your Dallas Cowboys. Pick who now they're 257 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 1: six and oh, ats on the season, and sir, you 258 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:26,320 Speaker 1: have been riding with the boys ever since the season started. Stow. 259 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 1: But that game was an epic loss for Vegas. And 260 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:31,959 Speaker 1: to quote one headed bookmaker, to have Dallas win and 261 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 1: cover and the game to go over fifty and a half, 262 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 1: it took so much for that to happen. It's still 263 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:39,599 Speaker 1: kind of hard to believe it happened. It was just 264 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 1: a disaster. New England would have saved us, and we 265 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:46,839 Speaker 1: thought they had the game won. Quote now, Choppy, that 266 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:51,559 Speaker 1: game was a full eight figure swing at Caesar's alone 267 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 1: eight figures had it lost it not to mention what 268 00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 1: it did the rest of the town. Now, as a gambler, 269 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 1: you ever, ever, ever apologize for a win, no matter 270 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:06,319 Speaker 1: how you get it, because there is a bad beat 271 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 1: plating right around the corner to take all that joy 272 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 1: right off your face. Right, Yeah, but shoppy, we said 273 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,719 Speaker 1: that cows Cowboys were getting overvalued at four at the 274 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 1: time we had the podcast last week, and then you know, 275 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: by the next day they were down to plus three, 276 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 1: So we were right on that, right. A lot of 277 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: money was coming in on the paths, the sharper money 278 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: was coming in on the paths. However, it settled at 279 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 1: three and a half, and when it did that, the 280 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: public was hammering the Cowboys. So basically it was a 281 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 1: pros versus Joe's, and the Joe's beat the pros and 282 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 1: the books out of their money. Now, there's a hundred 283 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 1: different things in that game that could have went the 284 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 1: other way. Like most every NFL game, you can say 285 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 1: that about you, you point to any little thing, right, 286 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 1: But before Sean's boy Cedric Wilson made that amazing catching 287 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: fourth down, the Cowboys winning percentage was down to ten 288 00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 1: percent in the game. Yeah, but you know what, Wilson 289 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: didn't make the catch, and then they did make the kick, 290 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 1: and then they did hold on defense, and then Dad 291 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 1: didn't settle for a field goal, right he put it 292 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 1: away with a bomb to Cede Lamb and again once 293 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 1: once it got to overtime, Vegas had to feel really good, 294 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 1: especially when the Pats when the coin toss they get 295 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 1: the stop best. I mean, either way, it's the best 296 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 1: case scenario. Right, Cat was just gonna go down. They 297 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 1: kick the field goal. Maybe McCarthy might kick it from 298 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 1: sixty yards. Who knows what that god is going to do, right, 299 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 1: he might he might call Tim out on second and 300 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: five say, hey, you know, I wanted to kick a 301 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 1: sixty three yard right here. I think I think Zirlin's 302 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 1: got it, but he didn't, right, and Dad, I guess 303 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 1: Dad was probably in his mind too, was like, yeah, 304 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: I'm not going to let that happen. I'm on the 305 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 1: ball down the field to CD. Let's see what happens. 306 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: They wouldn't score the touchdown now. And even though the 307 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 1: Sharper side lost, and obviously we lost, and we surely 308 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: don't like losing, but sometimes I feel like this is 309 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 1: one of those situations where if you're if you've ever 310 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 1: played third base right in black jack, and you're setting 311 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 1: there and you've got you know, let's say sixteen, and 312 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 1: the dealers shown at three that you know, you know 313 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 1: they got that eight underneath there, you know they do. Yeah, 314 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 1: so you take that bus card, you take the ten 315 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 1: right then they flip over, they get the five and 316 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 1: then they get you know, the ten, so then they 317 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 1: bust out the whole tabble wins. You're the one that loses. 318 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 1: But sometimes you do that just so that you can 319 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: celebrate together as a community that you beat the books, 320 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 1: you beat the man, and you know, everybody wins, and 321 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 1: it just it lifts everybody's moved, right, So it being selfish. 322 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: Sometimes you just got to take the bus. It's kind 323 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 1: of what you know, And we felt like on Sunday, 324 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:43,880 Speaker 1: yeah we took the bus. But what a great game, 325 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 1: what a great finish, and you know what, sir, Kudos 326 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 1: to you, sir, and kudos to the cowboys six and 327 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 1: oh eighth ts so chopping take a bow, my friend man, 328 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 1: thank you, thank you, thank you. If so many people 329 00:16:56,680 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 1: I want to thank you. Amazing shriek. They are six 330 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 1: and our against spread though, and I thought for the 331 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,879 Speaker 1: beginning they were a little bit undervalued, and uh, you know, 332 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 1: I agreed with what you said this past week they 333 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 1: were tad overvalued, but that market corrected itself, and I thought, 334 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 1: we think we got him at a good spot and 335 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 1: at the end of the end, I mean it did 336 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: so when it went down to three, that was fair, right, 337 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 1: So then that was probably where the number should be. 338 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 1: And if you look at the game played out, everything 339 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 1: being equal, cowboys go kick a field goal. It's a 340 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: push on both sides, right, So depending on where you 341 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:35,400 Speaker 1: got the number, you either one or you lost whatever. 342 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 1: But it would have finished exactly where Vegas expected to finish, 343 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: which is the point of setting lines in the first place. 344 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 1: So I think you're a spot on on that too, 345 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 1: all right. That is uh. That is first a look 346 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 1: back at last week nine and three for me on 347 00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:53,959 Speaker 1: Twitter twenty and thirteen Football Glory Hole two and one 348 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:57,959 Speaker 1: on the podcast Great week all Around, and then Vegas 349 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 1: got hurt. I guess we like seeing that, you know, 350 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,120 Speaker 1: we like when the little guy gets to win every 351 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,480 Speaker 1: now and then. So that is, uh the recap. Now 352 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 1: for the look ahead. Cowboys are off this week, but 353 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 1: why are they six and zero against the spread? What's 354 00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 1: going on there? Plu's quick hits around the NFC East. 355 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:19,440 Speaker 1: That's all coming up on the Football four oh one K. 356 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,399 Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Football four h one K. I 357 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 1: m r J. Choppy. He is a bow Repka of 358 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:34,119 Speaker 1: the football glory Hole. It is the Football four one 359 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 1: K podcast. And we got a little look ahead here 360 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:39,360 Speaker 1: because the Cowboys run a buy week this week, which 361 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: means that they don't play breaking news and then the 362 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 1: next time they play is against my guy. Uh well, 363 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: look my guys, Dak, but one of my guys. I 364 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 1: got a lot of guys aroughout the NFL. I love 365 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 1: mediocre quarterbacks and then Dak Prescott, Like that's why I 366 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 1: love I love, I love my My My favorite quarterbacks 367 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:04,880 Speaker 1: are Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and any average quarterback guys 368 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 1: who I think are better than the public does see. 369 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:12,080 Speaker 1: I fade hype. I fade hype, and I buy buy 370 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 1: bottom stock. So I'm very high in Derek Carr, very high, 371 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 1: and Jared Goff. I'm very high on Kirk Cousins, but 372 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 1: only at noon. I don't like Kirk at night only 373 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 1: at noon. That is rules to live by. When it 374 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,399 Speaker 1: comes to the Kirk Cousins backing. It's funny because you 375 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 1: said the mediocre thing, which I know that about you. 376 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 1: It's one of the things I appreciate about you, really 377 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: and from a gambling stamp, which is about value, right, 378 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 1: Like I know Derek Carr is gonna get undervalued, and 379 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,199 Speaker 1: I know Golf and Cousins are gonna be valued very 380 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:46,879 Speaker 1: very low. I think you can kind of steal some 381 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: stuff here. I mean Teddy two gloves, your god, Teddy 382 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: two gloves. He's like twenty two and three ats on 383 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 1: the road all the time. Like the dude is just 384 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:59,159 Speaker 1: a covering monster. Uh yeah, and again I knew that 385 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,200 Speaker 1: about you. I love that about you. But yeah, the 386 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:04,160 Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins at noon or nothing. So the Cowboys will 387 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 1: most likely, just looking at this game, be about two 388 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 1: and a half to three point favorites in Minnesota, both 389 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,679 Speaker 1: teams coming off overtime wins, both teams and probably covering 390 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 1: the spread by overtime touchdowns instead of the field goals. 391 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:18,400 Speaker 1: Right if either team to kick the field goal, neither 392 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 1: would have covered. They both beat average team and our 393 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,359 Speaker 1: average teams and our power rankings last week, Minnesota or 394 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,320 Speaker 1: two point favorites in Carolina, Dallas close to three, three 395 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 1: to three and a half point favorites in New England. 396 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:33,960 Speaker 1: Minnesota we had ranked as an average team commune into 397 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 1: the season, and they're they're within fifteen one hundreds of 398 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 1: a basis point of being just that the Cowboys we 399 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 1: had at two points above an average team coming into 400 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 1: the season. They're within fifteen one hundreds of a point 401 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,120 Speaker 1: for me, and just that translation, we're pretty damn good 402 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,680 Speaker 1: at this. But other than that shopping, the question looking 403 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 1: ahead to this game is, let's say the spread does 404 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 1: fall right between the two and a half to three, 405 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,160 Speaker 1: which I fully expect it to. What is your reaction 406 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 1: to that? And yeah, I mean you're the cowboy whisper, right, 407 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 1: You're the cowboy whisper. So how long can the Cowboys 408 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: keep the spread the street going? Uh? You think it's 409 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 1: gonna be a three? Two out of three? I really 410 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 1: think so. And this game is a Sunday night football game, 411 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 1: FYI I think never wins. Um. I would look, I 412 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:29,160 Speaker 1: would probably chick it out and just pass on the game, 413 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 1: which which I don't. I mean, that's not really chicking 414 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:35,760 Speaker 1: it out. That's kind of what we're supposed to do, right, 415 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,480 Speaker 1: We're really just a bet thing you think we're gonna win. Um. 416 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:42,440 Speaker 1: I don't really have a good feel that I did 417 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: this today on the show. The Cowboys have four games 418 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 1: this year the rest of the way where the other 419 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 1: quarterback could could I could see it out. I could 420 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 1: see the other quarterback out playing Dack and winning. I 421 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 1: could see it with Kansas City. You can see it, 422 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 1: what with Arizona. I can see it with Vegas, and 423 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 1: I can see it with this game. I can see 424 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins out playing Dak. That wouldn't stun me. It 425 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 1: would surprise me if Jalen Hurts out played him, or 426 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 1: Taylor Heinekey or Daniel Jones. But it wouldn't surprise me 427 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,119 Speaker 1: if Kirk Cousins outplayed Dak Prescott. Kirk's a good quarterback, 428 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 1: he's a Pro Bowl guy, so it wouldn't surprise me. 429 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,440 Speaker 1: I would probably stay away. I think the number would 430 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,920 Speaker 1: have to get below two for me to take the Cowboys. 431 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 1: It would have to shrink to one and a half. Okay, 432 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:35,240 Speaker 1: I think that, Yeah, I think that's fair. I definitely 433 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:39,480 Speaker 1: wouldn't have any interest playing either side at that number either, 434 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 1: So I think and that again that's our power rankings. 435 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: Plus I'm trying to factor in market factors too, so 436 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:48,919 Speaker 1: it's always a little bit of a guessing game for us. 437 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:50,480 Speaker 1: But I think it. I think it's fair to say 438 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 1: it's gonna fall right in there. There's not a lot 439 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,639 Speaker 1: of value that you said. And remember, for everybody out there, 440 00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,959 Speaker 1: the advantage you have as the player that you'll always 441 00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:01,880 Speaker 1: have is you don't have to bet anything you don't 442 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 1: want to bet, right, You get to pick. You could 443 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 1: cherry pick them all you want. Um, I think the 444 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,120 Speaker 1: total might be a better bet if you were gonna 445 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,440 Speaker 1: go with the Cowboys, um whatever. I think it's gonna 446 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 1: be high fifties. It was fifty and a half. It 447 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 1: was fifty and a half in New England. Yeah, I'm 448 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,639 Speaker 1: thinking this is like fifty five all right, Yeah, I 449 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:32,159 Speaker 1: can I can see Jeffson feeling Cook Kirk. Yeah. I 450 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,359 Speaker 1: think I think probably fifty three around that open and 451 00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 1: then see what the market does with it. So if 452 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,040 Speaker 1: you like it at fifty five and open it's fifty three, 453 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:41,280 Speaker 1: then it sounds like you got a bet. And honestly, 454 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:45,440 Speaker 1: I uh if there is a point where I would 455 00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 1: take the under, because you know, the Cowboys offense is 456 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:52,440 Speaker 1: not nearly as good on the road as it isn't home, right. 457 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,560 Speaker 1: You know, I don't count the LA game because that 458 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 1: was that was like a half fifty fifty crowd Tampa. 459 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 1: Their offense was really really good, but they had to 460 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:03,959 Speaker 1: it was they only had twenty points. Been way through 461 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. They did a furious comeback, uh and 462 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 1: against the Patriots. You know, they were really good between 463 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 1: the twenties, but they didn't score that They didn't you know, 464 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,399 Speaker 1: they did sit off for some field goals they had 465 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: to go overtime. You know, I it's like, I don't know, 466 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,040 Speaker 1: I don't know. It's probably a pretty good breakover if 467 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 1: I heard I heard you and Sean talking about that 468 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 1: on the red zone offense thing and the Cowboys, which 469 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:31,760 Speaker 1: we don't get into that a lot this early in 470 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,440 Speaker 1: the season because it's still I mean, yes, we're about 471 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,679 Speaker 1: a third, but that's still really premature these I mean, 472 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 1: the red zone offense is the thing that really takes 473 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,120 Speaker 1: the longest I think for teams to come together. Yeah, 474 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,120 Speaker 1: I mean you saw it in Tampa Bay last year. 475 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 1: That was One of the things that people didn't really 476 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 1: talk about is they lost some games earlier year, they 477 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 1: had to settle for a lot of field goals. Later 478 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 1: in the year when they really started clicking in the 479 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,680 Speaker 1: red zone and putting up seven s, the threes and 480 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 1: that defense came together, right, It was kind of a 481 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 1: combination of everything. That's when you really saw him take 482 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 1: off and start to just you know, wax people really 483 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,159 Speaker 1: all all the way to the Super Bowl. So I 484 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 1: think that's a great point though, Looking up, Moving on 485 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:10,720 Speaker 1: past the Cowboys, right, so they're off, so we'll see 486 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,639 Speaker 1: that happens too, and have three points fifty three fifty 487 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 1: four total. I think maybe some rounding there. Moving on 488 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,080 Speaker 1: to Washington. So Washington is at Green Baby. Looking around 489 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,879 Speaker 1: the NFC East Washington at Green Bay plus nine and 490 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,600 Speaker 1: a half. Now Washington chop is one in five ats 491 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 1: Green Bays five and one ats. But quick little nuggets 492 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 1: on these games. Here's the rub on this one. Green 493 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:36,680 Speaker 1: Bay has a negative negative cumulative ATS margin, which means 494 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:41,040 Speaker 1: yes they have covered, but on aggregate they are underperforming 495 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,760 Speaker 1: their marketplace. Washington, obviously at one in five is gonna 496 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 1: have a negative ATS margin, but it's only four part 497 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 1: points worse than Green Base. In other words, the Washington 498 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 1: football team has only been four part points worse than 499 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 1: Green Bay on the entire season. According to Vegas expectations, 500 00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,680 Speaker 1: this game is a lot closer than what people are thinking. 501 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,159 Speaker 1: And Washington's closest games this season have been against the 502 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,479 Speaker 1: Charters Johnson Atlanta. They won two of those straight up. 503 00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 1: What are those three teams have in common? Green Bay 504 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,919 Speaker 1: las thirty second in rushing DBA defense, John's twenty seventh, 505 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:18,440 Speaker 1: Atlanta's twenty fourth, Green Bay thirtieth, choppy, So not expecting saying. 506 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:20,520 Speaker 1: They're saying we're respecting the upset here, but I am 507 00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,239 Speaker 1: saying this number is too high, too high, Okay, too 508 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:28,400 Speaker 1: high for the football team. Huh, all right, what else 509 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 1: do we have? They're all dogs in the NFC's this week. Oh, 510 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:35,640 Speaker 1: huge shocker that these terrible teams are all dogs. Yeah. 511 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 1: And this is such a great division for the Cowboys 512 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 1: to be in. Man, such a great division. I mean 513 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 1: they're not again, just like if you get lucky and 514 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,879 Speaker 1: went to bed, you're not gonna apologize for it, right, 515 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 1: Tom Brady's not apologizing Rollos years and the f c'st 516 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 1: I promise you he's not doing that. So there's no 517 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:51,679 Speaker 1: reason for the Cowboys to apologize either. It's not their 518 00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 1: fault that these three teams fell apart at the same time, 519 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 1: but the Giants plus three at home versus Carolina. Now, 520 00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 1: after last week's performance, I don't see anybody has indie 521 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 1: confidence betting either one of these teams, and not so coincidentally, 522 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 1: this game is a zero delta in our power ratings, 523 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 1: and Vegas did that on purpose because quite frankly, they 524 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 1: don't have any confidence in either one of these teams. 525 00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,920 Speaker 1: And they ain't surely just want fifty fifty money on 526 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 1: this game, because they really don't, especially after the beating 527 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 1: they took last week. They don't want any info or 528 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:24,680 Speaker 1: anything getting out on either one of these sizes or 529 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:26,399 Speaker 1: anything that they miss. So they are gonna set this 530 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,880 Speaker 1: right down the middle. And that is exactly what they 531 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 1: did with this team. Now, Daniel Jones does stink at home, 532 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,719 Speaker 1: and I mean he stinks like, you know, worse than 533 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 1: rotten eggs, like that bubbleguts stink where you know, maybe 534 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:42,959 Speaker 1: you're sitting in your car and you're gonna get out 535 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 1: and go to the store, but you let one go 536 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:46,439 Speaker 1: fire one into the seat right just before you jump out, 537 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:47,840 Speaker 1: and you come back and then you can't even believe 538 00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:49,040 Speaker 1: that you even did that when you got back in 539 00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 1: care Like, how is that even possible that I made 540 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 1: something to smell that bad? Right, one of those kind 541 00:27:54,080 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 1: of like that's how bad that? But one thing I 542 00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,360 Speaker 1: can't can't get over last week, and I haven't heard 543 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,639 Speaker 1: really anybody talk about, is I can't believe that Joe Judge, 544 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 1: your favorite, is not taking more heat for playing Daniel 545 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:17,679 Speaker 1: Jones in that game. I mean Daniel Jones. We all 546 00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,240 Speaker 1: make fun of him, right, we call him Dumbface Junior 547 00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 1: and talk a bunch of trash and say how terrible 548 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:24,640 Speaker 1: is But you know that's all jokes and trash talk 549 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,440 Speaker 1: or whatever. And he's not great. But he hasn't been 550 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:29,920 Speaker 1: bad this season. He's been about average. But in that 551 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 1: game he threw three interceptions and had a funnel. He'd 552 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 1: only throw one interception all season. He clearly was not 553 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:37,639 Speaker 1: ready to play. He clearly was not ready to be 554 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 1: put in that position. And you know, I don't care 555 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:43,000 Speaker 1: who who plays for what team, whatever, whatever your rival is. 556 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,120 Speaker 1: At some point, if you love football, you have to 557 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,600 Speaker 1: kind of get upset about them putting that kid in 558 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 1: that situation. You go out there when he was clearly 559 00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:55,720 Speaker 1: still dealing with you know, whatever symptoms from a concussion 560 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 1: or whatever. I don't care if he passed or they 561 00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 1: said he passed whatever. He was not ready to play. 562 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:01,720 Speaker 1: You know that they had to see that in practice. 563 00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 1: You know, he probably didn't look right. They ran him 564 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:05,800 Speaker 1: out there anyway, And at some point, man, there's got 565 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: to be some accountability for Joe Judge and his entire staff. 566 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:10,400 Speaker 1: Is that was not the right thing to do to 567 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 1: that young man. No, Well, Joe Judge is a dope, 568 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 1: he really is. He's such a dope. That whole organization 569 00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 1: as a disaster from Dave Getleman on down. I mean, 570 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:25,840 Speaker 1: they got owners knocking over trash cans that said environmentally sound, 571 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 1: that environmentally sound at all? Yeah, especially that city with 572 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,160 Speaker 1: that many people winn' geez the trash. There's no room. 573 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,480 Speaker 1: There's no room. Okay, So football team getting too many points. 574 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 1: Giants are just bad in general. And and and Philadelphia 575 00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 1: is another team that is whether a disaster, man, they 576 00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 1: really are, really. Yeah, that's another game that's split on 577 00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:55,800 Speaker 1: our algorithms. UM the preseason h sweat on that was 578 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,280 Speaker 1: minus three, it's three and a half. It's minus three. 579 00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:03,480 Speaker 1: It's barely changed, which means that the expectations were pretty 580 00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 1: low for Philly coming into the season from Vegas. They're 581 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,360 Speaker 1: still there. I don't see any value in this one 582 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 1: at all. I am interested to see if the new 583 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,440 Speaker 1: coach they're right. Have they driven enough miles to start 584 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,400 Speaker 1: speeding up a little bit again? Right? Is that gonna 585 00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:20,400 Speaker 1: go back down? That's what I'm interested in seeing this 586 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,840 Speaker 1: game and going forward. So that's what I'll be watching 587 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,880 Speaker 1: for on that one. All right, So there's our NFC 588 00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,680 Speaker 1: East quick hits. All those teams are dogs. Cowboys are off. 589 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 1: I mean the Cowboys are gonna win just by being 590 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,240 Speaker 1: off this week. I mean they really are and there 591 00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 1: and I saw their playoff chances like ninety five percent 592 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:39,320 Speaker 1: just to win the division. It's just this thing is over. 593 00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:43,360 Speaker 1: It's church, it's cooked. Goodbye, see you later. Now there's 594 00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:48,880 Speaker 1: one downside. All three NFC East teams are probably picking 595 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:52,040 Speaker 1: in the top ten. And if the if the season 596 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,480 Speaker 1: were ended today or if they ended it last last 597 00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:59,320 Speaker 1: week before this Sunday's game, the Eagles would have three 598 00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 1: of the top picks. Yeah, because they've got Miami's pick 599 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:12,160 Speaker 1: and they have they've Houston's Oh indies, they've indies Miami 600 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 1: and Indie. So that could be that could be ugly. Whoop, 601 00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:19,840 Speaker 1: it could be. Well, we got some news on that 602 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 1: Miami front. Good news in Miami Front for Cowboys fans. 603 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 1: Coming up in just a second. All right, very good, Okay, 604 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:28,960 Speaker 1: let's do it. Next up, we'll give some free picks away. 605 00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,800 Speaker 1: We've been red hot, red hot on fire. Free picks 606 00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:35,280 Speaker 1: coming up next. Football four oh one K. Before there 607 00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 1: was a draft, you could size up a cowboy by 608 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 1: three simple factors. The crease in his hat, the bend 609 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,600 Speaker 1: of his brim, and his unbending attitude a man. Stetson 610 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,000 Speaker 1: didn't just protect him from what life throw at him. 611 00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 1: It projected a rugged, unstoppable spirit. Stetson hats are still American, 612 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 1: made with pride right here in Texas. There's still the 613 00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:57,800 Speaker 1: unofficial crown of all self respecting cowboys, and Stetson is 614 00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,640 Speaker 1: proud to be on the field with America's team. Find 615 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 1: a retailer nearest Jewitt Stetson dot com, slash Cowboys The 616 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:09,960 Speaker 1: Cowboys Way, where sixteen Hall of Famers and five Championships 617 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,360 Speaker 1: shows us what success looks like. Where turkey is always 618 00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 1: the second best part of Thanksgiving Day, Where we are 619 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 1: all defined by one single thing, the star, Where we 620 00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:23,480 Speaker 1: as fans know it's our job to keep the tradition going. 621 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,400 Speaker 1: Bank of America is proud to be the official bank 622 00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:28,960 Speaker 1: of the Dallas Cowboys and to support the quest of 623 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 1: living life the Cowboys Way Copyright twenty twenty. Bank of 624 00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,880 Speaker 1: America Corporation. Want to use what the pros use? How 625 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,280 Speaker 1: about the official men's skincare brand of the Dallas Cowboys, 626 00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 1: Jack Black. Right now you can get the Jack Black Starter, 627 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,360 Speaker 1: a curated collection of Cowboys locker room favorites, for just 628 00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,760 Speaker 1: ten bucks with free shipping. The starter includes four Jack 629 00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:52,160 Speaker 1: Clack skincare favorites, plus a full sized and tense therapy 630 00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 1: lip bomb. Go to get Jack Black dot com slash 631 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:58,120 Speaker 1: Cowboys and use the code word team JB. That's get 632 00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:01,600 Speaker 1: Jack Black dot com slash cow Boys the Jack Black Starter, 633 00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:06,239 Speaker 1: ten bucks, free shipping. Honey, big News, Gary, Are you okay? Oh? 634 00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:09,680 Speaker 1: I'm not Gary anymore. I'm Jackie Flash. What see? I 635 00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:11,880 Speaker 1: want the latest smartphone, but the best deals are only 636 00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:13,920 Speaker 1: for new customers, So to get a new customer deal. 637 00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:17,080 Speaker 1: I changed my name to Jackie Flash. Okay, but the 638 00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:19,520 Speaker 1: best smartphone deals at AT and T are for everyone, 639 00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:23,480 Speaker 1: new and existing customers. That's huge. Then guess who's getting 640 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:27,160 Speaker 1: the deal? Is it Jackie Flash, Jackie Flash? It's not 641 00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,280 Speaker 1: complicated at AT and t our best smartphone deals are 642 00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 1: for everyone. Restrictions apply. Is it att dot com for details? 643 00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 1: Back to football four oh one K. Welcome back to 644 00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:42,040 Speaker 1: the football four oh one K. I'm RJ Choppy. Here 645 00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:45,560 Speaker 1: is bo repka. Hey, let's give away some free things. 646 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 1: Two games of college one of the pro plus a 647 00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:55,640 Speaker 1: dominant wicked high payoff pizza money parlay coming up for you. 648 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:59,000 Speaker 1: But I was stunned when you threw this number out 649 00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:04,680 Speaker 1: at me. Iowa State minus seven against Oklahoma State. This 650 00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:08,719 Speaker 1: is a This is a top ten team in Oklahoma 651 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:15,680 Speaker 1: State on the road getting seven points. Do tell and 652 00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:21,320 Speaker 1: doesn't doesn't sound right? Does it? So? Shoppy? October is 653 00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:23,360 Speaker 1: my favorite month of the year for so many reasons. 654 00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,280 Speaker 1: As a sports fan. It's the only time you get NFL, 655 00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:30,880 Speaker 1: NCUBA Football, NHL, NBA, and the World Series all in 656 00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:33,040 Speaker 1: the same month. And on top of that, if you 657 00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:36,239 Speaker 1: love beer, which I do you get October Fest, which 658 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,440 Speaker 1: gives the ladies an excuse to wear some leader hosen 659 00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,040 Speaker 1: and some low cut shirts, and for us beer lovers 660 00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:43,680 Speaker 1: to drink excessive amounts of beer, eat way too much 661 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 1: beat and enjoy the lovely ladies and leader hosen and 662 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,480 Speaker 1: their low cut shirts. But more than all of that goodness, 663 00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:53,240 Speaker 1: I love October because it's also known as brock October. Baby. 664 00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,920 Speaker 1: It's that magical time. Every year brock Purty goes from 665 00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:59,959 Speaker 1: an average at best college quarterback to the unbelievable money 666 00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:03,320 Speaker 1: making superstar that we all know that he can be. 667 00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:06,359 Speaker 1: So broad couple numbers goes from sixty four point seven 668 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:08,800 Speaker 1: percent completion and every other month in his career to 669 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,560 Speaker 1: sixty seven percent. His yards we game go from two 670 00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:15,600 Speaker 1: fifty one to two ninety, his touchdowns nineteen touchdowns in 671 00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:18,839 Speaker 1: the month of October, nine touchdowns and all the rest 672 00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,040 Speaker 1: of the months, and his record shoppy goes from nine 673 00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:24,840 Speaker 1: and eight barely above average, to eight and one elite. 674 00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:27,759 Speaker 1: And if you think this is some sort of scheduling clerk, 675 00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,880 Speaker 1: he has not faced Kansas one time in October. So 676 00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,480 Speaker 1: not one gimmea game, Not one gimme game in all 677 00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,680 Speaker 1: of October in his career, and Bro October is gonna 678 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:39,759 Speaker 1: roll on into Ames on Saturday. And even though the 679 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,520 Speaker 1: AP has the pokes, like you said, ranked number eight, 680 00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,759 Speaker 1: Vegas obviously isn't buying it. And for good reason. I 681 00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,360 Speaker 1: always say it has the fifteenth ranked EPA offense in 682 00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:51,319 Speaker 1: the country, while Oklahoma State has a seventy third. Now 683 00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,880 Speaker 1: they're both twenty five EPA and defense, so that's going 684 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,720 Speaker 1: to provide both offenses some trouble. However, this line should 685 00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,280 Speaker 1: be around eleven. We're getting it at seven and shoppy. 686 00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:01,800 Speaker 1: We already won money on Iowa State earlier in the 687 00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,279 Speaker 1: year when Nevada came calling. So get ready for some 688 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:10,760 Speaker 1: more cyclone cash on Saturday. Baby. Wow, I have stunned, perplexed, vexed. 689 00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:14,480 Speaker 1: Even I can't believe because I always say it was 690 00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:15,920 Speaker 1: a good team coming into the year, like they were 691 00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,440 Speaker 1: on the they were the hot team, right, I am. 692 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:23,560 Speaker 1: I'm surprised. I'm surprised by this, but you know, believe 693 00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:27,839 Speaker 1: in the system. Believe in the system. Uh, this next game, 694 00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:37,200 Speaker 1: I don't know it's you have Tennessee plus twenty five 695 00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:42,080 Speaker 1: and a half against Bamma. Now, this is a big line. 696 00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:46,120 Speaker 1: It really is a big line. You know, it's more 697 00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:49,920 Speaker 1: than three touchdowns for Bama. Tennessee could score. They do 698 00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,440 Speaker 1: have offense. This is not your normal Tennessee team that 699 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,840 Speaker 1: is just dog butt awful at offense. Like this is 700 00:36:56,920 --> 00:37:01,160 Speaker 1: a decent offense, but man, yeah it is. Oh no, 701 00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,200 Speaker 1: I know, I know you're fit, you're fan, your valls 702 00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,560 Speaker 1: fandom just like really just makes you curl up into 703 00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:09,080 Speaker 1: a ball and you just don't want to do it, right, 704 00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:12,960 Speaker 1: you don't want We invented the fetal position. We invented 705 00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:16,279 Speaker 1: you know, we invented this, this motion that happens at 706 00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:19,040 Speaker 1: every stadium in the world where the fan puts both 707 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:22,359 Speaker 1: hands on their head in a stunt shock. It's called 708 00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:27,920 Speaker 1: surrender cobra. That was invented by Tennessee fans because somewhere 709 00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:30,520 Speaker 1: over the last twenty five years were well twenty years 710 00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:33,960 Speaker 1: where we have been just been yeah, we have done this, like, 711 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,240 Speaker 1: oh my god, I can't believe this is happening. Because 712 00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:39,279 Speaker 1: if you can't believe it's happening, well, what is the 713 00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:41,879 Speaker 1: number one school that you point to you say, oh, 714 00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:45,600 Speaker 1: it must have been them. If you hear I can't 715 00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:49,279 Speaker 1: believe it happened where at this school. It has to 716 00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:53,560 Speaker 1: be us. It's a fair point. And I'm not gonna 717 00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:55,560 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna try to take away you know, you're 718 00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:59,000 Speaker 1: twenty years of disappointment and fandom and ups and downs 719 00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:01,960 Speaker 1: and all of your what it was surrender Cobra. That 720 00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,960 Speaker 1: was the Oh you got so you got the hands 721 00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,879 Speaker 1: that arms make it look like a Cobra fan. Yeah, 722 00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:14,280 Speaker 1: I like that. I like that a lot. Now there's 723 00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,320 Speaker 1: one of the sun as this big saving his fourteen 724 00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:21,759 Speaker 1: and old. First, this has been Obama. Never never lost, right, 725 00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:26,120 Speaker 1: never lost, mister ball, never lost. He's five and one 726 00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:30,000 Speaker 1: eights in the last six and the spread complete dominance. 727 00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:32,920 Speaker 1: But not Saturday baby. First of all, the people in Tennessee, 728 00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:35,799 Speaker 1: good people. I mean, everybody's upset in town. They've had 729 00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:38,040 Speaker 1: no mustard to put on their ham sandwich all week long. 730 00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:39,400 Speaker 1: They threw it all on the They left it all 731 00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:41,399 Speaker 1: on the field, right That's that's called leaving it all 732 00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:44,000 Speaker 1: on the field. When you mustard on the field, that's it. 733 00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:47,040 Speaker 1: And there's not even there's not a driving range that's 734 00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:48,880 Speaker 1: open right now. All the range balls are are in 735 00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:55,960 Speaker 1: Lane's fucking he took home with them. Oh man. Uh So, 736 00:38:56,200 --> 00:39:00,840 Speaker 1: Alabama has lost two games against the spread this shared FBS, 737 00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:05,040 Speaker 1: so this is where they are vulnerable. The reason that 738 00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:06,840 Speaker 1: they've lost the Florida and the other one was the aggies. 739 00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:08,360 Speaker 1: What are those two teams haven't come They run the 740 00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:13,000 Speaker 1: ball very well. Florida seventeenth and EPA rushing offense aggies 741 00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,719 Speaker 1: their thirty sixth Tennessee's twelfth shoppy. They run the ball 742 00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:20,960 Speaker 1: better than both of them, and Abama struggles to stop 743 00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:24,400 Speaker 1: the run, which is a new development in Alabama, but 744 00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:26,560 Speaker 1: it's happening this year and it's happened consistently. There forty 745 00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:29,600 Speaker 1: second in the country EPA defense versus the run, And 746 00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,520 Speaker 1: unlike in years past when people have tried to play 747 00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,759 Speaker 1: keep away from Alabama, tried to run the ball, tried 748 00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:38,520 Speaker 1: to keep that explosive offense on the field, they don't. 749 00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,120 Speaker 1: Alabama doesn't have the explosive offense this year to kind 750 00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,960 Speaker 1: of suck up that margin that the other team tries 751 00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:47,000 Speaker 1: to create by time with possession. They're nineteenth in EPA 752 00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:51,879 Speaker 1: passing the country, which is way down from previous years. Now. 753 00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:56,040 Speaker 1: Old miss does have the eighth EPA rushing offense. But 754 00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:57,919 Speaker 1: the reason they were not able to cover that game, 755 00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:00,200 Speaker 1: and Tennessee will be able to is Old Miss is 756 00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:04,239 Speaker 1: one hundred and seventeenth EPA in defense, and then the 757 00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,120 Speaker 1: balls aren't great. There's sixty seventh the quick Matt tells 758 00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:11,360 Speaker 1: me that's fifty percent better than Oh Miss. So a 759 00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:13,920 Speaker 1: couple that difference with the fact that balls we'll have 760 00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:15,680 Speaker 1: the dominant running game, be able to keep the ball 761 00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,759 Speaker 1: and score the ball most importantly, that should be enough 762 00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:21,560 Speaker 1: to get this cover. I'm not gonna call an upset win. 763 00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,640 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lose my mind, but Tennessee's gonna win 764 00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,080 Speaker 1: us some more money, as they've been doing all year long. 765 00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:30,279 Speaker 1: So Rocky top, baby, man, I love hearing that go 766 00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:36,319 Speaker 1: ball hercan lese? Hercan lease? Yes? Oh man, I love 767 00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:40,719 Speaker 1: you know what it would make up for so much. 768 00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,640 Speaker 1: I am going to the Georgia game in a couple 769 00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:47,239 Speaker 1: of weeks still, Uh, I don't know how sweet it's 770 00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:52,200 Speaker 1: gonna be. Uh, you know, I'm just hoping score if 771 00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:54,719 Speaker 1: they beat Bama, if they even if they come within 772 00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:58,320 Speaker 1: ten of Bama this week. I all is allays forgiven, 773 00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:01,800 Speaker 1: All is forgiven? Okay. NFL Miami plus two and a 774 00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:07,040 Speaker 1: half against Atlanta really yeah, so, Chobby, you know the 775 00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,160 Speaker 1: sharpest We bet nasty games in the NFL, and it 776 00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:12,040 Speaker 1: doesn't get any nastier then betting on a team that's 777 00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:13,839 Speaker 1: one in five and a home dog to a team 778 00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:16,120 Speaker 1: that's two and three. And not only that, we just 779 00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,439 Speaker 1: told you last week Miami is one of the worst 780 00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:20,360 Speaker 1: three teams in the NFL. We told you the Jaguars 781 00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:23,799 Speaker 1: is gonna beat them, and they did well. That gives 782 00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,040 Speaker 1: all all the confidence of the world that our numbers 783 00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:28,360 Speaker 1: are right on Miami and we're gonna be right here. 784 00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:30,640 Speaker 1: And again it's as bad as they are. They should 785 00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:32,200 Speaker 1: not be catching two and a half points at home 786 00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:34,719 Speaker 1: to the lowie Falcons. Now Atlanta is one point better 787 00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,040 Speaker 1: in our prior rankings, so give them the two at 788 00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:40,319 Speaker 1: home that menaged. Miami ashes should be favored by one point. 789 00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:44,080 Speaker 1: So in fact, the preseason line had Miami FI minus 790 00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:47,839 Speaker 1: three and a half. Now Miami has been downgraded five 791 00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:51,439 Speaker 1: full points, and our priorier there were there our biggest miss, 792 00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:54,239 Speaker 1: biggest whiff. Preseason, we thought they're gonna be way better 793 00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:57,560 Speaker 1: than they have been. Atlanta is two and a half 794 00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:00,440 Speaker 1: points worse. So if that spread us three and a 795 00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:03,120 Speaker 1: half on those expectations, Atlanta is now caught three points, 796 00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:05,799 Speaker 1: which means it should be Miami minus half a point. 797 00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:09,040 Speaker 1: So either one point value now half a point based 798 00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:12,320 Speaker 1: on preseason Either way, you're getting two to two and 799 00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:16,000 Speaker 1: a half points of value here. And Flores, quite frankly, 800 00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:18,560 Speaker 1: is I still believe he's too good of a coach 801 00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:22,000 Speaker 1: to continue to lose football games at this clip and 802 00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:25,080 Speaker 1: two of back home with a full week of you know, 803 00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:26,960 Speaker 1: practice and rest, which is that's one of the big 804 00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:30,040 Speaker 1: factors we gave on Jacksonville last week. It will be 805 00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:32,640 Speaker 1: more prepared, it'll be ready to take advantage of the 806 00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:37,360 Speaker 1: thirtieth ranked DVO eight defense of the Falcons. So I 807 00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:41,040 Speaker 1: think Dolphins cover. I think Dolphins win this game. This 808 00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:43,400 Speaker 1: is a game that absolutely have to have, and Flores 809 00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:45,839 Speaker 1: is going to have his guys ready to go, all right, 810 00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:49,560 Speaker 1: very good. You know, if you're going just based out quarterbacks, 811 00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:53,000 Speaker 1: Atlanta would have the advantage. But I mean that's about 812 00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,480 Speaker 1: probably all the only advantage they have on tight end. 813 00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:58,680 Speaker 1: That's still a lot of bad roster in Miami, it 814 00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:01,120 Speaker 1: really isn't. I guess he's a pretty good player. I mean, 815 00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:03,960 Speaker 1: I know everybody's been fun and over pits. But yeah, 816 00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:07,600 Speaker 1: think he's pretty good. He is. He is okay pizza 817 00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:11,200 Speaker 1: money parlay three teamer that pays seventy two and a 818 00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:16,440 Speaker 1: half to one ten bucks wines seven twenty five. I mean, 819 00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:18,680 Speaker 1: we're gonna swing for the fences here. We're gonna take 820 00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:23,920 Speaker 1: LSU plus two ninety on the money line, Florida International 821 00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:26,439 Speaker 1: plus five hundred on the money line, and Georgia Tech 822 00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:29,719 Speaker 1: plus two fifteen on the money line. Now, I really 823 00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:34,080 Speaker 1: think LSU and Georgia Tech are highly likely. Plays is 824 00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:36,400 Speaker 1: highly likely as you're gonna get on something that bagas 825 00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:38,320 Speaker 1: telling you're gonna have a thirty percent chance of it happening. 826 00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:41,239 Speaker 1: Florida International, on the other hand, the reason why I 827 00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:42,759 Speaker 1: like this and we're just why it made it in. 828 00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,000 Speaker 1: I mean, we're taking Florida International the points on our picks. 829 00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:47,800 Speaker 1: We've already send it out to our clients. But the 830 00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:49,560 Speaker 1: reason why this one made it in on the money 831 00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:53,800 Speaker 1: line is because they're playing Western Kentucky and West Kentucky 832 00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:57,040 Speaker 1: throws the ball, that's what they do, and it's supposed 833 00:43:57,040 --> 00:44:00,560 Speaker 1: to be a Florida months soon basically down there on 834 00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:02,880 Speaker 1: the game, which means it should slow down the track, 835 00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:06,320 Speaker 1: slow down the offense. A Florida Nationville is a running team, 836 00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:11,120 Speaker 1: so that should at least make Florida Nashville a live 837 00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:14,680 Speaker 1: dog even a catching plus fifteen a's seventy two and 838 00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:17,360 Speaker 1: a half to one. This value is too good to 839 00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,520 Speaker 1: turn down. That is ten times at least your normal 840 00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,800 Speaker 1: value on a three team parlay ten bucks whens you 841 00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:28,719 Speaker 1: seven hundred and twenty five dollars. Wow, that is a 842 00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:32,720 Speaker 1: live dog action. When you've got a really good running 843 00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:35,400 Speaker 1: team against a passing team and the weather is just 844 00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:40,680 Speaker 1: atrocious so interesting. I like it. I like it. Okay, 845 00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,479 Speaker 1: here's recap. I Always State minus seven against Oklahoma State, 846 00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:47,000 Speaker 1: Tennessee plus twenty five and a half against Alabama, and 847 00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:51,480 Speaker 1: Miami plus two and a half against the Atlanta Falcons 848 00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:55,160 Speaker 1: in the National Football League Pizabody parlay LSU plus two ninety, 849 00:44:55,600 --> 00:45:00,920 Speaker 1: Florida International plus five hundo and Georgia Tech plus two 850 00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:04,480 Speaker 1: fifteen bo Where can we find you on social media's 851 00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:08,640 Speaker 1: and find us on Twitter at FGH Vegas. You can 852 00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:12,279 Speaker 1: find us at the Football Gloryhole dot com. You can 853 00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:15,440 Speaker 1: find our podcast, The Football Glory Whole Podcast anywhere, and 854 00:45:15,520 --> 00:45:18,279 Speaker 1: I mean anywhere. You find podcasts and this Friday you 855 00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:23,480 Speaker 1: can find us at the Chophouse Live and Keller We're 856 00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:27,120 Speaker 1: gonna be doing our hundredth podcast live and where is 857 00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:30,920 Speaker 1: There might be a special guest appearance from one Ralph James, 858 00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:38,320 Speaker 1: Lord Ralph started Chappy, Okay, very good. I'm RJ Choppy. 859 00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:42,480 Speaker 1: You can catch me Monday through Friday five thirty to 860 00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:44,560 Speaker 1: ten one oh five through the Fan with Sean and 861 00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:48,160 Speaker 1: rj uh at Troy Hughes as well. That is also 862 00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:52,879 Speaker 1: on Twitter at RJ Choppy for bo I'm RJ talk 863 00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:55,160 Speaker 1: to you next week. Let's win some cash on the 864 00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:56,920 Speaker 1: football four oh one k