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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brawmowitz Jay Ley, we bring

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Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

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Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Terminal. John A.

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Speaker 1: Guess nats Brian Weinstein that had a fixed income at

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Speaker 1: Morgan Standing Investment Management. Brian, I want to start with

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Speaker 1: the events, the unrest in China of it the weekend

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Speaker 1: and walk me through how even the team of thinking

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Speaker 1: about it this Monday morning, we think it's just part

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Speaker 1: of the broader story of of more economic turmoil, uncertain

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Speaker 1: teams slowdown, and at least so we hear you that

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Speaker 1: it's certainly possible that the zero COVID ends early and

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Speaker 1: that would would be a game changer, which just as

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Speaker 1: possible that the clampdown comes, uncertainty stays, supply line problems,

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Speaker 1: you know, rebuild uh and it just causes more economic

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Speaker 1: slowdown out there. So it's a tough one to figure

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Speaker 1: out on admitted by minute basis, But for now, the

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Speaker 1: zero COVID seems to be here, and it seems to

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Speaker 1: be part of you look at yields, right, deals are

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Speaker 1: falling um, economic growth is slowing around the world. But Brian,

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Speaker 1: on the flip side, either way, whether they keep COVID

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Speaker 1: zero and it causes supply chain kinks to last for longer,

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Speaker 1: or they release it and it causes demand to go up.

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Speaker 1: Either way, it's inflationary now. It does seem so. Again

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Speaker 1: if you look at if you if you look at

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Speaker 1: where we price inflation to go to, back to the twos,

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Speaker 1: it's very optimistic. Right, There's many reasons to believe inflation

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Speaker 1: will stay stickier, makes the Fed's job harder, makes the

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Speaker 1: curve stay unbelievably flat and maybe get flatter. Um. Yes,

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Speaker 1: we we would agree with that. It's hard to see

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Speaker 1: inflation pressures easing off completely, though I do think the

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Speaker 1: direction will travel. The next three or six months will

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Speaker 1: be will be lower. But to that point, Brian, the

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Speaker 1: moving ten year yields has been notable. Long term yields

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Speaker 1: have been bid dramatically over the past couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: This has been the one consensus trade and perhaps people

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Speaker 1: getting ahead of the first half of next year and

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Speaker 1: doing it all now has it gotten over its skis

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Speaker 1: considering how long inflation could remain higher, how determined central

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Speaker 1: banks around the world are to be restrictive for a

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Speaker 1: sustained period of time. Maybe I've been impressed with how

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Speaker 1: far we've come. And we went from a period when

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Speaker 1: tenure notes were four fifty where it felt like nobody

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Speaker 1: would ever want duration again, and here we are at

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Speaker 1: three seventy and we feel we feel okay. I think

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Speaker 1: this is the stage where we got a little bit

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Speaker 1: of weak economic data. You could have another leg to

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Speaker 1: this rally called tenure notes. Get the curve really inverted?

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Speaker 1: Mind's a hundred, maybe a little bit more um long term?

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Speaker 1: Do I think we're having a big fixed income rally?

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Speaker 1: Knowing the income is great, you don't want to chase

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Speaker 1: too much. But I do think you could have another

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Speaker 1: leg here, given that data could get weaker. If you

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Speaker 1: think we could get another leg lower in yew, does

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Speaker 1: that made you think maybe the risk is ever done

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Speaker 1: it here? Brian? I think so. I think that's the

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Speaker 1: trade here. I think we all year we had duration

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Speaker 1: leading risk assid's lower um. This rally, duration did better,

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Speaker 1: but risk asses did well too. If we rally again

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Speaker 1: I think it's because risk comes off. We accept the

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Speaker 1: fact that next year is not going to be easy,

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Speaker 1: that that earnings could be worse than we think, that

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Speaker 1: uncertainty is high, and that duration actually is still cheap

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Speaker 1: relative to risk given what happened this year. I'm looking

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Speaker 1: right now at hil bond spreads just to build on

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Speaker 1: what job I was talking about. They're the lowest going

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Speaker 1: back to August, and we talk about the rally that

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Speaker 1: we've seen is people pour into risk, even though the

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Speaker 1: lower leg in yields that you talk about, Brian really

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Speaker 1: has to do with weakness. Could we see a material

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Speaker 1: pickup in default or is it just a positioning Is

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Speaker 1: it just a technical widening and spreads that you're looking for.

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Speaker 1: I think the defaults are coming. I don't know that

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Speaker 1: we're going to see that into the next two or

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Speaker 1: three months. It takes a little bit longer, right. We

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Speaker 1: haven't seen the impact of higher mortgage rates. We haven't

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Speaker 1: seen people have to refinance you know, a lot of

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Speaker 1: debt yet. So I think defaults are coming, but I

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Speaker 1: think it's a bit more technical. I just think how

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Speaker 1: you'll lose, how you'll look great with a nine return

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Speaker 1: handle on it when you lower buying, you know, a

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Speaker 1: good hundred basis points, two hundred paces points. The higher

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Speaker 1: quality assets just looked better. So I think the default

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Speaker 1: stories out there, I think the oarning stories out there,

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Speaker 1: but I think it's a bit more technical. In the

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Speaker 1: next couple of months, the weaker growth risk is done

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Speaker 1: too well. People have chased it um and we have

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Speaker 1: to reset. You said defaults are coming, Brian, but this

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Speaker 1: is one big question mark. How much are we going

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Speaker 1: to sort of a pretty high default cycle or is

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Speaker 1: it really the consensus that you buy into as well,

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Speaker 1: that it's gonna be a relatively low kind of level

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Speaker 1: of default for a longer period of time. I think

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Speaker 1: there lends people always jumped to is oh eight. I

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Speaker 1: don't think that's the story here. I do think balance

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Speaker 1: sheets are okay. I do think there are you know,

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Speaker 1: there are certainly buckets of consumers that are doing well

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Speaker 1: or baskets of consumers that are doing well um And

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Speaker 1: so I think we're gonna go back up and probably

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Speaker 1: scare the market a bit, go higher than than than

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Speaker 1: maybe average. But I don't think this is It may

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Speaker 1: be a longer drawn out default cycle, but I don't

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Speaker 1: think we have massive default spikes and armageddon. That that's

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Speaker 1: not what woods in play here. I've gotta put you

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Speaker 1: on the spot for twenty three. Is your working assumption

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Speaker 1: COVID zero in Shinaree Bryant. Such a good question. Um,

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Speaker 1: my working assumption had been before the weekend. Yes, and

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Speaker 1: I haven't maybe got enough information to to redo it. Uh.

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Speaker 1: They definitely want to stick with it. I'm a little

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Speaker 1: less certain now, but I'd still stick with yes. From

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Speaker 1: White Stain of Morgan standy, thank you sir. As a

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Speaker 1: white you're the only just some with the indoor shoes,

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Speaker 1: which you mean you don't have shoes just for the gym,

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Speaker 1: just indoor shoes just for the gym. I run outside. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but if you were, let's say they were just for

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Speaker 1: the gym, you'd wear them outside too. I take my

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Speaker 1: shoes off when I come in. I'm one of those

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Speaker 1: people anyway you make other people take their shoes off. No,

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Speaker 1: I don't make other people take good That's good to

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Speaker 1: know those people you don't like a lot to say

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Speaker 1: about the Otherwise we might have an issue. Got a

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Speaker 1: good friend who turned up to a party over the

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Speaker 1: last couple of weeks. Walding got to the door and

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Speaker 1: he got the shoes off memo from the people at

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Speaker 1: the party, and you know what he did, No, turned

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Speaker 1: back around and left the party. But I would do

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Speaker 1: the same thing. You take your shoes off when your part. Sure,

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Speaker 1: but I don't force other people too. And I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: either gotten with those people. But but but if you

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Speaker 1: actually cared about it, and you had a close friend,

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Speaker 1: they're not coming in the bedroom, are they again in

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Speaker 1: the living room? I don't know. I think it's a

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Speaker 1: sign of respect. I usually take my shoes off. I

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Speaker 1: would for them, I would offer exactly. I just wouldn't insist.

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Speaker 1: I think it's strange. I think it's strange to insist.

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Speaker 1: I also think it's strange if somebody doesn't take their

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Speaker 1: shoes off, if it's clear that you know how much

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Speaker 1: that we're gonna get on this, I think it's very

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Speaker 1: odd to make guests type the shoes off. I think

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Speaker 1: it's I agree, but I think it's odd for a

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Speaker 1: guest to not see all the shoes at the front

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Speaker 1: door and automatically. This is why we go to Clara Ranked,

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Speaker 1: the chief US economist that effects investments that she joins

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Speaker 1: US now Laura great to catch up with you. It's

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Speaker 1: a bizarre moment in this equity market because we seem

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Speaker 1: to be pricing in a recovery to recession we haven't

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Speaker 1: had yet, Laura, Can you run me through the potential

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Speaker 1: for this downturn in America? Yeah? You know, markets are

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Speaker 1: so forward looking. I think they've really gotten over their

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Speaker 1: skis in terms of seeing this reduction in the pace

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Speaker 1: of Federate hikes and automatically assuming that there's light at

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Speaker 1: the end of the tunnel and easing is really on

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Speaker 1: the near term horizon. To me, I look at what's

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Speaker 1: happening in the bond market and the very clear expectation

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Speaker 1: or the probability of recession that the bond markets pricing in,

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Speaker 1: and the fact that forward earnings estimates on the equity

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Speaker 1: side are higher for next year. When we have a recession,

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Speaker 1: we usually get a d op in earnings of ten

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Speaker 1: that's what we've had historically, So we're really seeing this

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Speaker 1: divergence and recession expectations in the financial markets. Laura. You

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Speaker 1: also think that it is potentially not right that inflation

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Speaker 1: is going to fall so significantly next year. That is

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Speaker 1: completely not consensus. Can you explain, Yeah, so you know,

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Speaker 1: I do think that inflation has seen its peak in

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Speaker 1: June of this year, so I do expect inflation to fall,

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Speaker 1: but I am an outlier in that. UM I don't

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Speaker 1: think we're going to see inflation neatly fitting back into

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Speaker 1: this two percent box anytime soon. I think we're going

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Speaker 1: to need to differentiate between inflation coming down. You know,

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Speaker 1: we see oil off so significantly this morning. Some of

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Speaker 1: these base effects are going to drag headline inflation lower.

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Speaker 1: But there's a real difference between that and a world

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Speaker 1: where inflation is reliably and persistently low. That is the

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Speaker 1: backdrop again to which we've had the FED, you know,

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Speaker 1: keep interest rates at the zero lower bound, cut interest

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Speaker 1: rates aggressively over five basis points if the economy slows.

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Speaker 1: I think we're in a world now where we can't

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Speaker 1: just assume that we're going to mean revert back to

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Speaker 1: the world you know what we've had for twenty years

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Speaker 1: before the pandemic. Look at what's happening in China right now.

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Speaker 1: We need to really resist the urge that our quantitative

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Speaker 1: models are telling us to mean revert. That to me

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Speaker 1: is the biggest concern going into People would disagree Laura.

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Speaker 1: They would say, well, we still have an older population,

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Speaker 1: we still have a lot of doubt, we still have

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Speaker 1: all of the ingredients of low inflation, and that in

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Speaker 1: five years time, this fedual Reserve will be trying to

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Speaker 1: get inflation up, not to get it down and keep

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Speaker 1: it at two percent. Why do you push back against that?

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Speaker 1: You know, I think that what we're seeing right now,

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Speaker 1: look at the tenuere treasury we have. If I if

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Speaker 1: I had told you that we would have inflation of

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Speaker 1: seven percent, a tenure treasury was still only three and

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Speaker 1: three quarters. That is a world where demographic pressure is

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Speaker 1: keeping the tenure treasury lower. We have quantitative titan, we

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Speaker 1: have the FED selling treasuries or at least not buying them,

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Speaker 1: and we still and we have really really high inflation,

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Speaker 1: and the tenure is still well below where inflation is.

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Speaker 1: So I think it is a world where we're seeing

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Speaker 1: demographic pressure UM applied to the long end. I just

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Speaker 1: think that it's um. It's still a world where you know,

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Speaker 1: we're seeing look at food prices. I think the expectation

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Speaker 1: that supply chain disruptions are going to magically evaporate is

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Speaker 1: being disproven this morning. This is still um we're seeing

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Speaker 1: the echo chamber of COVID disruption, and I think really

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Speaker 1: the genies out of the bottle when it comes to inflation,

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Speaker 1: durable goods price deflation is a necessary portion of seeing

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Speaker 1: um US inflation at two percent, and we're just not

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Speaker 1: going to go back to that world. In Andrew Hollen

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Speaker 1: host The City, published just months ago, he said the

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Speaker 1: jobs numbers may serve to emphasize his hawk is focus

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Speaker 1: on a tight labor market. He's talking about Chairman pou La.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that's important too. I think this is critical.

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Speaker 1: You know, wage growth of four percent is inherently inconsistent

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Speaker 1: with inflation of two We have had a lot of

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Speaker 1: different recessions where we see very little change in output

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Speaker 1: but a massive decline in employment. This time around, you

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Speaker 1: could get the other story. You could get company is

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Speaker 1: really actually holding onto labor. That's part of the demographic story,

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Speaker 1: and I think it's a reason why wage inflation is

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Speaker 1: going to be much stickier. On the decline. We've seen

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Speaker 1: companies now have to continue to compete for workers, and

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Speaker 1: I think that also is going to be a story

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Speaker 1: for the wage numbers may become more important than CPI numbers.

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Speaker 1: Especially in the beginning of next year. Interesting up black

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Speaker 1: rocket down like a feather. I think it was Patrick

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Speaker 1: Harker if the Philadelphia Fed a number of weeks ago. Laura,

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Speaker 1: thank you, Laura reun of FS Investments, And I'm well

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Speaker 1: joined us now sending a fellow at the Atlantic Council

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Speaker 1: and I'd love to start there. Just the latest move

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Speaker 1: from this administration for chef on around the story in Venezuela,

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Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on that we still too light

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Speaker 1: on detail for you to draw too many conclusions. You know,

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Speaker 1: I do think that we're we're shorter on detail here

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Speaker 1: in terms of the Chevron story. So, for example, is

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Speaker 1: this oil oil that's already on the market just on

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Speaker 1: the black market, or is production actually going to increase

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Speaker 1: in Venezuela, in which he is that could be meaningful

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Speaker 1: for the market, but probably is going to take quite

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Speaker 1: a long time to actually get get going because their

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Speaker 1: oil facilities have been an incredible disrepair. I mean, this

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Speaker 1: has been a very very long um problem for them. Um.

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Speaker 1: The interesting thing though, is is say that, um, you

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Speaker 1: know where they're looking for for oil producers that are

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Speaker 1: less bad. You know, there are a lot of less

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Speaker 1: bad oil producers in the United States, UH, that have

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Speaker 1: the ability to produce more, just they aren't producing more

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Speaker 1: because they don't think that the atmosphere is conducive towards it,

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Speaker 1: and also that they're facing a lot of headwinds from

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Speaker 1: inflation and having trouble getting parts and getting labor and

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Speaker 1: getting equipment, and costs are very high. But there are

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Speaker 1: definitely things that Biden administration could do to encourage those

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Speaker 1: less bad oil producers in our own country. Oh and

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Speaker 1: then why are oil prices so low? Is this something

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Speaker 1: that completely is a demand side story that we're seeing

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Speaker 1: play out or is it just the imagination of a

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Speaker 1: demand side story that is yet to play out. So

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Speaker 1: I do think that it's it is somewhat of an

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Speaker 1: imagination of a demand side story, because you do have

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Speaker 1: a situation where I think futures trading is impacting the

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Speaker 1: prices now, and the the future of oil is very,

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Speaker 1: very hazy right now. What's interesting, though, is that the

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Speaker 1: fact that prices are kind of low now could actually

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Speaker 1: spur more European utilities to switch from natural gas to oil,

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Speaker 1: and that could then later kind of send a bump

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Speaker 1: into oil prices. So I think that just because we're

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Speaker 1: seeing kind of a lull or a period of lower

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Speaker 1: prices now, we shouldn't expect that that's necessarily going to continue.

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Speaker 1: There's always a tendency to think that what's happening now

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Speaker 1: is what's going to happen for the rest of the winter.

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Speaker 1: And I think that with what we've seen certainly in

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Speaker 1: the past, with the incredible volatility here, is that we

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Speaker 1: cannot underestimate the effect uh and we could see a

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Speaker 1: very very quick rebound if if we're not careful and

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Speaker 1: paying attention. On the big news over the weekend was

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Speaker 1: the social interest in China, the possibility of perhaps a

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Speaker 1: quicker exit to zero COVID on the heels of protests

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Speaker 1: around the nation. Do you view with the unrest that

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Speaker 1: we're seeing over in China as being potentially a logical

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Speaker 1: reason for oil prices to be lower or would you

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Speaker 1: expect that to actually send oil prices higher because of

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Speaker 1: what it might mean for zero COVID Exactly. So, I

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Speaker 1: do think that um earlier in the week that China's

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Speaker 1: COVID policies continued, lockdowns things like that definitely helped send

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Speaker 1: oil prices lower. So if we we're talking about say

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Speaker 1: the beginning of last week, And the question is what

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Speaker 1: do these protests actually mean. I'm not a China expert,

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Speaker 1: but if you do look at China's history, the regime

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Speaker 1: there has not been particularly responsive to protests. They also

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Speaker 1: don't seem to really have a problem with lots of

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Speaker 1: people dying in pursuit of their policies. So just the

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Speaker 1: fact that there are protests in China, I think it

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Speaker 1: means we should pay attention to it, but I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: necessarily put my money on it having a widespread impact

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Speaker 1: or a big change or shift in the Chinese regime's

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Speaker 1: policy U particularly quickly. You are an opaque expert, so

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Speaker 1: let's build on some of that knowledge if we can.

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Speaker 1: I'm interested in the working assumptions for next year's open

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Speaker 1: looking at three where COVID zero is still implemented by

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Speaker 1: the Chinese government, is that the working underlying assumption of

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Speaker 1: that organization. That's a really good question, and I think

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Speaker 1: that they. I do think that if anyone is going

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Speaker 1: to know first, it's probably going to be Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 1: because they've got a very close relationship with China, with

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Speaker 1: the Chinese government, They've got lots of oil investments there

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Speaker 1: A Ramco has tons of refineries, They've got long term

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Speaker 1: contracts for crude. And if anyone is going to have

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Speaker 1: a sense of when China is going to need more

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Speaker 1: crude oil, I do think it would be Saudi Arabia.

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Speaker 1: So if Saudi Arabia is sending signals that they don't

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Speaker 1: think oil demand is going to increase very much over

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Speaker 1: the course of the winter, then that could be an

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Speaker 1: indication of China's COVID policy. And well, thank you of

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Speaker 1: the Atlantic Council and the latest in the crude market

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Speaker 1: from Venezuela to China. Done joins us now seeing the

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Speaker 1: equity analyst that Webbush Securities don't want to stop with

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Speaker 1: the Apple story and understand it from your perspective, do

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Speaker 1: you see that as profit, revenue lost or just deferred

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Speaker 1: pushed out to the next quarter. Look, I mean it's

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Speaker 1: been a gut punch in the most important quarter, the

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Speaker 1: most important period for cooking cupputino going into howidays. I

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Speaker 1: believe it is deferred and they ultimately demand right now

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Speaker 1: is that stripping supply by about three to one? But

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Speaker 1: I think really, look there the clock struck midnight. Finally,

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Speaker 1: Apple is seeing, you know what, what's really the hurt

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Speaker 1: in terms of production in China? We think it could

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Speaker 1: be sixty eight million units. So what does this mean

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Speaker 1: in terms of Apple's share price, in terms of the

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Speaker 1: earnings that they're going to see, even if it's deferred,

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Speaker 1: What does that mean for the upcoming quarter? I think

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Speaker 1: in the New York term, Streets factoring in that that

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Speaker 1: you're quickly going to see misses on iPhone production as

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Speaker 1: well as what we're gonna see on deliveries. I think

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Speaker 1: we should issue is that even going to Black Friday

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Speaker 1: and we're seeing a five potentially shortages and Apple stores,

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Speaker 1: if that continues to increase, depending what happens on production,

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Speaker 1: then this could be some darker days ahead in terms

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Speaker 1: of the coming weeks going into how it is, I

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Speaker 1: think right now Streets starting a factor that in. But

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Speaker 1: let's just be clear, it's it's the Grinch that stole Christmas,

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Speaker 1: you know, really for Apple, and it's been a frustrating

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Speaker 1: time for Cook and Cupertina. This isn't a surprise though, Dan,

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is ultimately Apple's China problem, that their

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Speaker 1: dependents on China, both from a demand side as well

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Speaker 1: as the supply side really ties their hands to policy

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Speaker 1: that's highly unpredictable. How much is there a push internally

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Speaker 1: to move away from production in China to increase perhaps

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Speaker 1: demand and production elsewhere. Yeah, and and in terms of

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Speaker 1: what we've seen you with the last year and a half,

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Speaker 1: Apple has been able to navigate basically better than any

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Speaker 1: other company within China. The problem is is that now

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Speaker 1: at the most important time, between the protests you're of COVID,

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Speaker 1: what we're seeing a fox kind it's really been a

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Speaker 1: train wreck. I think for Apple now they could talk

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Speaker 1: about diversifying, but realistically probably best keys they can move

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Speaker 1: five sambers and production out of China about two So

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Speaker 1: I think they're really handred tied here. And that's sort

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Speaker 1: of the frustrating situation because they are ultimately the mercy

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Speaker 1: of the zero COVID policy in China. Well down, let's

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Speaker 1: build on that a little bit more on asked the

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Speaker 1: question whether it's profit or revenue lost or just delay

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Speaker 1: defer to another quarter, think overwhelming. The response from bulls

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Speaker 1: like you is that it's deferred, just delayed until the

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Speaker 1: next quarter. But dan underlying that assumption is that these

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Speaker 1: difficulties in production go away over the next three months.

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Speaker 1: Down I've spent most of this morning asked in a

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Speaker 1: question whether the working assumption is we get rid of

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Speaker 1: COVID zero, whether we're stuck with it, And I can't

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Speaker 1: get a definitive answer on that from anyone, And unsurprisingly

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Speaker 1: that's the case. So Dan, where does your confidence come

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Speaker 1: from that the issues that this companies are experiencing this

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Speaker 1: quarter are temporary and nature and won't just spill over

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Speaker 1: into most of the next year. Look, it's a great question.

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Speaker 1: I mean, like our view is that you know, ultimately,

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Speaker 1: especially from a fox con perspective, they will be able

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Speaker 1: to ramp production going into the next month or two,

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Speaker 1: you know, and then ultimately this will start to be

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Speaker 1: more temporary. But to your point, it's an overhead and

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Speaker 1: and it's really something they came to rouse for Apple

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Speaker 1: at the worst time possible. And really, ultimately, right now,

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Speaker 1: the street's going to assume it's temporary, transitionary. But ultimately,

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Speaker 1: if this continues in two thousand twenty three, it would

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Speaker 1: really sort of start to change the near term thesis.

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Speaker 1: But that's the question you and I have explored a

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Speaker 1: few times down. How would I know if I'm wrunk.

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Speaker 1: You seem to have put a date on it there.

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Speaker 1: If it spills into three, is that fair? Is that

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Speaker 1: your line? If this continues for another month or so,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to change my mind about where I

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Speaker 1: see the stasis going. Yeah. If this continues for board

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Speaker 1: is six weeks, but then it starts to impact two

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Speaker 1: thousand twenty three, then even I from fifteen in terms

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Speaker 1: of production, I think that's where it's sort of cascades further.

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Speaker 1: Right now, it's contained, you see that, even reflecting stock,

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Speaker 1: But no doubt, I mean this is starting to turn

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Speaker 1: into a nightmare in Elm Street for Apple in terms

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Speaker 1: of what we're seeing coming down in China. It's contained,

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Speaker 1: and yet we have heard about Apple potentially giving discounts

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Speaker 1: to certain businesses on the margins, doing things that they

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Speaker 1: have not done before because demand has so had to

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Speaker 1: supply and there's always been a willingness to spend a

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars on a phone and people are lining up

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Speaker 1: around the block down. Is there a bigger problem for

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Speaker 1: Apple that they're seeing both this issue on the supply

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Speaker 1: side at the same time that demand is taking a

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Speaker 1: hit in a way that perhaps they're starting to acknowledge

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Speaker 1: on the edges. Yeah, man, the edges. You show that

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Speaker 1: an iPhone four team plus, which is really outside of

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Speaker 1: strike out in terms as an overall you know, deliveries.

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Speaker 1: But if I look at iPhone Pro in terms of

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Speaker 1: four team pro, it's three to one demand over supply.

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Speaker 1: That continues to be a robust. That's the frustrating thing

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Speaker 1: for Apple, even despite economic storm clouds. Demand strong, they

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Speaker 1: can't just can't produce it. And I think that's right

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Speaker 1: now what they're trying to figure out. I think this

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Speaker 1: is the key. I'll call it seven to tend ds ahead,

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Speaker 1: especially what we see coming out of Fox can serious question.

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Speaker 1: If you were hosting a holiday party, would you insist

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Speaker 1: that people come over take their shoes off? That's that's

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Speaker 1: all we wanted to ever morning. Never. I believe I

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Speaker 1: believe one should do that. It changes the whole dynamic.

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Speaker 1: Once you say, asked someone to take their shoes off,

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Speaker 1: are you setting a message to someone Dan, Look, I

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Speaker 1: mean Staturday night, a good friendance to take our shoes off.

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Speaker 1: It was awkward for about fifteen seconds and then it continued.

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Speaker 1: I think it changes the dynamic that I was a

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Speaker 1: wet first. They still mates after this. Are they watching?

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Speaker 1: Maybe they are. Yeah, it's a good This is the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays

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Speaker 1: Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg m