WEBVTT - End of an Era for Blackberry

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carole Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world to business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Clovel News. Dr Michael Blavi's chief medical

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<v Speaker 1>officer at Anna Vasi Diagnostics, joining us once to count

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Atlanta. Doctor, thanks for sticking around

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<v Speaker 1>with us as we we heard from the president. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>Your immediate immediate reaction to to what we heard from

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<v Speaker 1>the president. It wasn't necessarily a different message than we've

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<v Speaker 1>been hearing from him for months. Oh, it's a consistent message. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>The theme is everybody has to pitch in to try

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<v Speaker 1>to control the pandemic spread. And now more of a

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<v Speaker 1>focus on the fact that booster shots immunization will protect

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<v Speaker 1>you from getting very sick going to that I see

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<v Speaker 1>you possibly dying, uh, But infection probably has to occur still,

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<v Speaker 1>and the only way we can control it is isolating

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<v Speaker 1>ourselves when are positive. So the theme of testing right right,

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<v Speaker 1>and this is something you guys. You are developing your

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<v Speaker 1>own um at home test and I know that is

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<v Speaker 1>still working its way through in terms of towards an

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<v Speaker 1>emergency use act and stuff. How how do you see

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<v Speaker 1>kind of the testing situation as we speak And I'm

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<v Speaker 1>I'm guessing these kinds of tests will be with us

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<v Speaker 1>for a long time. Yes, the tests that will keep evolving.

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<v Speaker 1>Others will put the high accuracy tests on the market

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<v Speaker 1>in miniature form like we're doing. But it's interesting a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of tests are out of stock when you go

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<v Speaker 1>to your grocery store pharmacy, the home kits are out

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<v Speaker 1>of stock, and I are not in big time for

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<v Speaker 1>those radio acquire my friends. Absolutely. And then also at

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<v Speaker 1>the same time that DA has started to make a

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<v Speaker 1>list of tests that may not be so accurate for

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<v Speaker 1>el macron and we're likely to see that in the

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<v Speaker 1>future even more with additional mutations because tests uh main

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<v Speaker 1>target the wrong area in a macron now an area

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<v Speaker 1>that is mutated from delta. So more and more concerned

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<v Speaker 1>about that. Wait wait what yeah? Can those tests like Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>so let's say you know some tests that are common

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<v Speaker 1>by nax now, for example, from Abbot Labs. Could it

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<v Speaker 1>tests like that be altered? Do Look? Could it tests

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<v Speaker 1>like that be altered by Abbott to pick up different

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<v Speaker 1>variants in a better way? And how quickly? Absolutely? Absolutely? Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, someone like Abbott could work that out very quickly,

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<v Speaker 1>But then they'll have to go through the emergency Youths

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<v Speaker 1>authorization procedure again. So realistically you're talking about several months

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<v Speaker 1>in most cases, which is light speed compared two years ago.

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<v Speaker 1>But absolutely Abbott could make that adjustment, so could others,

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<v Speaker 1>and others probably will have to do that in the future. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>it's an interesting world. Tim and I were also talking

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<v Speaker 1>about the cost of tests. I mean, they're not an

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<v Speaker 1>expensive certainly they at home test and I do let's

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<v Speaker 1>just be honest. You texted me, Carroll texted me last

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<v Speaker 1>night at PM's what I bought mine? And she said,

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<v Speaker 1>I found some tests at this drug store near the office.

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<v Speaker 1>I went this morning and I picked up for we

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<v Speaker 1>have like an and thank you Creedy because she's the

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<v Speaker 1>one who's like, hey, you gotta check out this pharmacy.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's been like a little network inside of our

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<v Speaker 1>our offices. Um, so we do find it, but I

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<v Speaker 1>do worry about people who need to work can't afford

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<v Speaker 1>these tests. Maybe your vaccinated fingers crossed they are. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we need to just get test house. I think over

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<v Speaker 1>in the UK, one of our colleagues said, at the

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<v Speaker 1>National Health Services, you know, just supplies them. Yeah, and

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<v Speaker 1>the same the same thing was done in Switzerland where

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<v Speaker 1>every family was given five tests per family member for

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<v Speaker 1>each month they could test regularly. And as a physician,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the greatest challenge just we had an emergency department.

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<v Speaker 1>Are low income folks that are working, they can't afford

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<v Speaker 1>the tests, and they also can't afford to stop working

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<v Speaker 1>when they're sick or feeling sick. That means they in

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<v Speaker 1>fact others. It's a really difficult position to deal with.

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<v Speaker 1>So how how does this how does this pandemic end?

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<v Speaker 1>We're entering year three of it, doctor, and I'm I'm

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<v Speaker 1>just you know, this is a pretty exasperating time. I

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<v Speaker 1>think for a lot of people especially those with young

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<v Speaker 1>kids who are not in school as a result of

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<v Speaker 1>this and are concern because those kids can't be vaccinated yet.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm speaking about myself. How does this end sure? I

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<v Speaker 1>think probably we learn to live with the virus and

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<v Speaker 1>it's different, different mutations. Hopefully we get more mutations like O.

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<v Speaker 1>Macron that don't make people quite as sick. Overall, the

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<v Speaker 1>immunization or immunity and the air in the community and

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<v Speaker 1>the society goes up and we have more very highly

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<v Speaker 1>effective medications, so that one day in the future O.

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<v Speaker 1>Macron is a little bit more like the flu. There

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<v Speaker 1>are susceptible people, they get extra immunizations if you get

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<v Speaker 1>the flu. We actually may have more effective medications against

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<v Speaker 1>a macron than the flu, and I think that will

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely be the case in the near future. Dr Blavis

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<v Speaker 1>just got about a minute or under a minute left here.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the outlook in terms of UM I know you

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<v Speaker 1>guys are working on submitting your COVID test for FDA

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<v Speaker 1>authorization under the Emergency Use Act. Any update on that. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>we just started in rolling patients. We're hoping to be

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<v Speaker 1>done in rolling patients by the middle of this month,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe the third week and then if all goes as planned,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll get the emergency use authorization by the FDA to

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<v Speaker 1>start selling on approximately March one. All right, well, good

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<v Speaker 1>to know, and we wish you good luck with it. Certainly,

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<v Speaker 1>it seems like the world is just appreciative of the

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<v Speaker 1>more tools that we have to deal with this. Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Michael Blavis, he's chief medical officer at Anna Vass Diagnostics,

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<v Speaker 1>joining us once again on the phone from Atlanta. This

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<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick

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<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Carol, you had a BlackBerry.

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<v Speaker 1>I did. I loved it. How many years do you

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<v Speaker 1>think you had at my crackberry? Yeah? A few years

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<v Speaker 1>to remember, and I did quite get it until I

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<v Speaker 1>got one, and then I was like addicted. And then

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<v Speaker 1>as soon as the iPhone came along. What happened? First

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<v Speaker 1>I didn't love it? Yeah, and then you wanted that

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<v Speaker 1>old keyboard back right? You wanted that physical keyboard? Did you?

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<v Speaker 1>Did you have one? I did have a BlackBerry, but uh,

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<v Speaker 1>yeah it was fine. I mean, but I went to

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<v Speaker 1>iPhone pretty quickly, and you can do them out so

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<v Speaker 1>much more with a smartphone. Yeah, you really can. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot different, but it's certainly fair to say that

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<v Speaker 1>it ushered in a new era when it came to

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<v Speaker 1>smartphones and personal technology. Well, it's the end of the

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<v Speaker 1>road for BlackBerry. Piece. It's the BlackBerry operating system. We

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<v Speaker 1>should know the point. We should note that you can

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<v Speaker 1>still get Blackberries that are powered by Android. Joining us

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<v Speaker 1>now to talk all about it is John Butler, senior

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<v Speaker 1>Telecom Services and Equipment analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins

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<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from New Jersey. John, how how

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<v Speaker 1>many people are is this going to affect? Blackberries? Are like,

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<v Speaker 1>they're like unicorns, right? You see him in the wild

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<v Speaker 1>and you're wow, BlackBerry. I don't you know. I was

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<v Speaker 1>listening to you guys talk. I had a BlackBerry as well.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't see a lot out in the wild anymore.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure it's really going to affect many people

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<v Speaker 1>and BlackBerry years ago. Our name is Carol, and I

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<v Speaker 1>have a BlackBerry. It's like, you know what I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>what if people hide it? Right, John, there's a few

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<v Speaker 1>of us out there. But I I switched to the

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<v Speaker 1>iPhone pretty quickly too. But um, you know, it was

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<v Speaker 1>one of those corporate libel phones, like companies paid for

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<v Speaker 1>your cell phone and gave you. In my case, I

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<v Speaker 1>had a rim page or if you remember the old

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<v Speaker 1>name research in Motion, and you know, you eventually moved

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<v Speaker 1>to two phones. And people love BlackBerry so much that

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<v Speaker 1>they ended up hanging onto the Blackberries for a long time.

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<v Speaker 1>And honestly, three or four years ago, I used to

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<v Speaker 1>see a lot of Blackberries out in the y else

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<v Speaker 1>so to speak, and I'm just not seeing them anymore. So, Carol,

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<v Speaker 1>to answer your question, I don't think there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of users at this point that are still hanging on.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, from a corporate standpoint, it's something that BlackBerry,

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<v Speaker 1>BlackBerry needed to move on from that. They really are

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<v Speaker 1>a software maker right now. Um, they've moved into mobile

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<v Speaker 1>software and security software and they sold off that handset

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<v Speaker 1>business years ago. So it's a good point, right They've

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<v Speaker 1>been going through changes, John, So what I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>what how do you see the outlook of the future

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<v Speaker 1>of BlackBerry. So they are still a company and transition,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think a lot of people would have thought

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<v Speaker 1>at this point they would be out of the transition

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<v Speaker 1>and growing better, and they still have to make some move. So,

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<v Speaker 1>speaking of handsets, they had this huge portfolio of intellectual

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<v Speaker 1>property for wireless and they're trying to sell that right

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<v Speaker 1>out a fund R and D to get a bunch

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<v Speaker 1>of new products over the finish line. And we're almost there.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. It's one of those stories. You can see

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<v Speaker 1>it beginning to come together. But they need more funding, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and they need a little bit more focus, and um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, my sense with them is I think they'll

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<v Speaker 1>get there. Um, it's hardly a given, but I think

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<v Speaker 1>I think they're on their way. Um. I think it

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<v Speaker 1>was high time they that they finally kind of let

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<v Speaker 1>go of that wireless business. Even a couple of quarters ago,

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<v Speaker 1>they were still reporting what they called service access fees,

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<v Speaker 1>So people who had a BlackBerry would pay a fee

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<v Speaker 1>to get access to their proprietary network for email and

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<v Speaker 1>file transfer and that kind of stuff. And so that'll

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<v Speaker 1>that'll go and it'll free up some cost. Hey, John,

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<v Speaker 1>I wonder if there's any sort of lesson in here

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<v Speaker 1>about business icicles and companies and companies staying on top

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<v Speaker 1>of things that we can learn from the rise and

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<v Speaker 1>fall of BlackBerry, especially the day that after Apple hits

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<v Speaker 1>three trillion dollars in market cap, because if we think

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<v Speaker 1>back to two thousand seven, when Steve Jobs stood on

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<v Speaker 1>that stage and introduced the iPhone, there were a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people out there who said, there is no future

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<v Speaker 1>for this thing. BlackBerry dominates when it comes to smartphones,

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<v Speaker 1>you know that. I think the lesson learned is, particularly

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<v Speaker 1>in the tech industry, some of these gigantic companies can

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<v Speaker 1>literally disappear and um or they can disappear from a

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<v Speaker 1>given business, as was the case with BlackBerry, but they

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<v Speaker 1>really are a shadow of their former self, if you will.

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<v Speaker 1>But LG just left the smartphone business and they were

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty big player for many years, and so to me,

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<v Speaker 1>I always use BlackBerry as an example of how these

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<v Speaker 1>tech behemoths can really fall from grace and ultimately disappear

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<v Speaker 1>over time. And I think the other lesson, and I've

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<v Speaker 1>learned this over the years as an analyst, is that

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<v Speaker 1>it's important to have the right CEO in place at

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<v Speaker 1>the right time in a company's life cycle. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think Apple is a great example of that. I think

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<v Speaker 1>Tim Cook came in right at a time when Apple

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<v Speaker 1>had reinvented, their product line was set, but they needed

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<v Speaker 1>a logistics guy to really grow it where it is

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<v Speaker 1>today exactly, Tim Cook, I think was the right guy

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<v Speaker 1>to do that. All right, John, Hey, we gotta run.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much. Always appreciate your insight. John Butler,

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<v Speaker 1>Senior Telecom Service and Equipment analyst a Bloomberg Intelligence. You're

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<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:52.560
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Obesity is a disease,

0:11:52.679 --> 0:11:55.640
<v Speaker 1>and there are ways to fight it, including prescription drugs

0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:59.000
<v Speaker 1>that work. The problem is most doctors are not prescribing them,

0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:01.080
<v Speaker 1>and insurers won't come for them. Let's get to the

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<v Speaker 1>reasons why. Well. I'm a cord As healthcare reporter for

0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:05.640
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News. She joins us on the phone from New

0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:07.880
<v Speaker 1>York City. Her story is going to be featured in

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<v Speaker 1>the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. You can

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<v Speaker 1>read it now though on the Bloomberg Terminal, also online

0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:15.679
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. Joel Weber is

0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:17.760
<v Speaker 1>editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us now on

0:12:17.760 --> 0:12:21.440
<v Speaker 1>the access line from Brooklyn. Joel Carroll mentioned this group

0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:23.920
<v Speaker 1>of drugs. These This group is known as g LP

0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:28.360
<v Speaker 1>one receptor agonists or GLP ones. What do they do?

0:12:28.480 --> 0:12:31.439
<v Speaker 1>It's very catchy, right, yeah, it is for the pharmacyical

0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:35.319
<v Speaker 1>industry really has a way with naming things, right, yeah, exactly.

0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:39.079
<v Speaker 1>But you know, regardless of name, Uh, the science behind

0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:43.520
<v Speaker 1>these shows promise and uh, as Emma goes into in

0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:47.080
<v Speaker 1>the story, um the drugs, and this class of drugs

0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:51.079
<v Speaker 1>is really geared. Maybe not um just you know those

0:12:51.080 --> 0:12:53.199
<v Speaker 1>stubborn five pounds that we'd all like to get off,

0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:56.040
<v Speaker 1>but a whole category of people who really haven't had

0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:59.600
<v Speaker 1>that many many drugs for them before, which is obese

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:04.240
<v Speaker 1>obset people, and obesity being such an epidemic in the country. Um,

0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:07.559
<v Speaker 1>numbers that are stubborn and and really don't go up

0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:12.120
<v Speaker 1>go down. And yet you know, doctors have the stigma

0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:15.320
<v Speaker 1>around it. It's like it's still in their mind. Can

0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:20.720
<v Speaker 1>be a behavioral problem that science can't necessarily solve. Insurance

0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:22.679
<v Speaker 1>on top of that, looks at this new class of

0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:27.400
<v Speaker 1>drug and they're not necessarily thrown money at it all

0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:31.160
<v Speaker 1>of which you know kind of leaves this solution to

0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:34.600
<v Speaker 1>a big problem someone on the shelf. But but now

0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:36.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm talking on the turn. I don't want to hear

0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:39.120
<v Speaker 1>more from ms Emma, Uh what what what? How did

0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:41.760
<v Speaker 1>this story coming to being and and how what kind

0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:46.760
<v Speaker 1>of potential does this class of drugs really really have? Hi, UM, well,

0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:50.680
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for having me on and um, I

0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:52.640
<v Speaker 1>hope everyone who listen to me has a chance to

0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:56.679
<v Speaker 1>check out the story. The piece started, there were a

0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:59.880
<v Speaker 1>couple of early threads, but I started hearing about so

0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:04.520
<v Speaker 1>startups that we're trying to treat obesity and help people

0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:07.680
<v Speaker 1>with weight loss using medication and telemedicine, so these like

0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:10.360
<v Speaker 1>virtual doctors visits, and I thought it was sort of

0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:13.080
<v Speaker 1>an interesting approach, and at the same time with hearing

0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:19.160
<v Speaker 1>about pharmaceutical companies trying to develop better obesity drugs and um,

0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:20.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, as I learned more about the space, I

0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:23.320
<v Speaker 1>just kept coming back to this point of like, you know,

0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:26.800
<v Speaker 1>even previous to these GLP one drugs that are starting

0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:31.000
<v Speaker 1>to be developed for weight loss and obesity specifically, they

0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:34.400
<v Speaker 1>would previously been used in diabetes. You know, there have

0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:38.960
<v Speaker 1>been prescription drugs that can help people lose weight that

0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:41.600
<v Speaker 1>are rarely used. Um. You know, and this is going

0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:45.000
<v Speaker 1>back several years, and there's a lot of different complicated

0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:47.760
<v Speaker 1>reasons for that, but I kept kind of just being

0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:51.240
<v Speaker 1>struck by the discrepancy between the fact that you know,

0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:55.200
<v Speaker 1>many people are are obese or overweight UM in the US,

0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:58.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, hundreds of millions of people, UM. And yet

0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:02.240
<v Speaker 1>people are consistently being told to diet to exercise, and

0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:05.640
<v Speaker 1>they're not being told about the other option that's available

0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:08.560
<v Speaker 1>for them. All right, Emma. The thing I find like crazy,

0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:10.720
<v Speaker 1>like blows my mind a little bit is, and you

0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:12.960
<v Speaker 1>write this, the biggest constraint on weight lost drugs remains

0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:16.040
<v Speaker 1>buy in from the broader medical industry. How can doctors

0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:19.200
<v Speaker 1>who potentially see this as something that could really like

0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:22.440
<v Speaker 1>prescribing one of these drugs help one of their obese patients.

0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:27.360
<v Speaker 1>How how are they allowed, you know, as a doctor,

0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:32.960
<v Speaker 1>not to prescribe it. That's a really good question, Carol.

0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:35.000
<v Speaker 1>And I think you know, I quote a doctor and

0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:37.840
<v Speaker 1>obesity doctor and the story who says sort of, you know,

0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:42.160
<v Speaker 1>if you treated diabetes or hypertension in this way, like

0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:45.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, a doctor would lose their their medical license.

0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:48.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's kind of remarkable that, you know, we're

0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:51.360
<v Speaker 1>very comfortable prescribing and by way, I mean doctor is

0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:55.720
<v Speaker 1>prescribing medications for so many different kinds of medical conditions.

0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:57.360
<v Speaker 1>And I think a lot of this helps to do

0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:00.280
<v Speaker 1>with the way OBEs to previously been seen. Right, people

0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:03.920
<v Speaker 1>think of obesity or or being overweight as really being

0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:06.640
<v Speaker 1>a something that you kind of did yourself, right, and

0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:08.480
<v Speaker 1>we kind of get into this more of the piece.

0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:11.480
<v Speaker 1>But you didn't work hard enough to lose weight, right,

0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:15.480
<v Speaker 1>this is your fault, um and UM. As a result,

0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:18.360
<v Speaker 1>this is treated as as a lifestyle condition. If you're

0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:22.280
<v Speaker 1>eating too much, you're not active enough, um. And there's

0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:25.760
<v Speaker 1>some more complicated science that's come out in the last

0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:29.160
<v Speaker 1>several decades that shows that our bodies really do have

0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:31.880
<v Speaker 1>a big influence over how we you know, when we

0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:35.000
<v Speaker 1>stop eating, you know when we're hungry, when we feel

0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:38.560
<v Speaker 1>satisfied after we eat, and and that there's more biologically

0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:42.000
<v Speaker 1>going on than merely sort of you know, refraining from

0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:44.400
<v Speaker 1>getting on the treadmill every day, which is what I

0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:46.880
<v Speaker 1>think a lot of people unfortunately still think, and even

0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:50.680
<v Speaker 1>even doctors and certainly people who struggle with their weight themselves. Well,

0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:52.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm just gonna make one comment because I know Tim

0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:53.600
<v Speaker 1>has a question, but I'm just gonna I wrote a

0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:57.760
<v Speaker 1>note being OBEs is big business, and it supports a

0:16:57.840 --> 0:16:59.920
<v Speaker 1>lot that's out there anyway, that's my that's my pa

0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:01.600
<v Speaker 1>in peace. It doesn't. It's a good I mean, it's

0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:03.120
<v Speaker 1>a good thing for us to be thinking about on

0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:05.280
<v Speaker 1>in the new year, when a lot of people have

0:17:05.800 --> 0:17:08.520
<v Speaker 1>different fitness goals and weight loss goals that are associated

0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:10.040
<v Speaker 1>with the new year. I want to talk a little

0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:12.720
<v Speaker 1>bit more about that m and and obesity because I

0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:14.960
<v Speaker 1>was I was I'm always shocked to see these statistics

0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:19.320
<v Speaker 1>about you know, how many Americans are are obese or

0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:23.440
<v Speaker 1>overweight three and four and estimated two million people. Can

0:17:23.480 --> 0:17:25.560
<v Speaker 1>you talk a little bit though about comorbidities here in

0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:27.760
<v Speaker 1>the dangers of being overweight. They've come to the to

0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:30.879
<v Speaker 1>the to the surface a lot when in discussions of COVID.

0:17:30.920 --> 0:17:36.720
<v Speaker 1>But but beyond that, yeah, yeah, so, um, the big

0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:40.520
<v Speaker 1>kind of concern about having excess weight as obviously that's

0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:44.760
<v Speaker 1>defined by the body mass index UH standard. Right, So

0:17:45.080 --> 0:17:49.760
<v Speaker 1>people who are um obese are at higher risk of

0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:58.000
<v Speaker 1>developing various um medical conditions, including um diabetes. Another respects

0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:01.720
<v Speaker 1>tied to obese is actually all call mortality, so literally

0:18:02.040 --> 0:18:05.399
<v Speaker 1>death by any cause. Um. So we know from some

0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:08.760
<v Speaker 1>of these statistical analogies that you know, when you are

0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:12.280
<v Speaker 1>you carry around extra weight, you are more likely to

0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:15.239
<v Speaker 1>develop some of these other medical problems. And you know,

0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:18.240
<v Speaker 1>it does raise a lot of concerns for doctors and

0:18:18.320 --> 0:18:21.240
<v Speaker 1>medical providers about your health, right are you as healthy

0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:23.760
<v Speaker 1>as you could be? Um? And as a result, it's

0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:26.280
<v Speaker 1>led to a lot of interest in finding rains to

0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:29.760
<v Speaker 1>keep pounds off obviously not just for you know, reasons

0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:34.000
<v Speaker 1>of appearance, but also really health health reasons. So to

0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:37.880
<v Speaker 1>wrap her, Emma, let's talk briefly about the science. How

0:18:37.920 --> 0:18:42.320
<v Speaker 1>does this this class of drugs that we're talking about here, um,

0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:45.600
<v Speaker 1>the gop ones, how how does it? How do they work?

0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:49.800
<v Speaker 1>And Imma just got about thirty seconds. So they do

0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.800
<v Speaker 1>a couple of different things. Especially when you're talking about diabetes,

0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:56.479
<v Speaker 1>they actually help pincreas, get the pincreas to produce insulin

0:18:56.560 --> 0:18:58.719
<v Speaker 1>to bring your blood sugar levels down. But when you're

0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:01.720
<v Speaker 1>talking about weight loss specific atale, what's really interesting about

0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:05.960
<v Speaker 1>these drugs is they mimic a hormone called g lp one. Right,

0:19:06.040 --> 0:19:08.840
<v Speaker 1>these drugs are named after the hormone and it actually,

0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:12.400
<v Speaker 1>uh kind of helps tell your brain like you're satisfied,

0:19:12.560 --> 0:19:15.800
<v Speaker 1>you don't have to eat anymore. Um, and that's kind

0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:18.040
<v Speaker 1>of the key to it. It's funny people might think

0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:20.240
<v Speaker 1>of that, you know, they've got hormones, but they actually

0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:23.159
<v Speaker 1>work most potently, it seems, in the brain, which is

0:19:23.240 --> 0:19:25.560
<v Speaker 1>kind of a fascinating thing to think about, this being

0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:29.520
<v Speaker 1>really neuroscience. At the end of the day, all right,

0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:31.360
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna leave it on that note. Listen, guys, thank

0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:33.920
<v Speaker 1>you so much. It's a really wonderful story, I mean,

0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:36.359
<v Speaker 1>troubling story, but you should definitely check it out with

0:19:36.400 --> 0:19:38.600
<v Speaker 1>all its uh details. You can find it at Bloomberg

0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:41.160
<v Speaker 1>dot com and the court there and Chill Weber. This

0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:45.200
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick

0:19:45.240 --> 0:19:49.160
<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Later this month, We're

0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:51.200
<v Speaker 1>gonna get update on Netflix when it reports it's latest

0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:54.880
<v Speaker 1>quarterly results. This is the company's edging closer to investment

0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:57.679
<v Speaker 1>grade status. It's what you call a rising star, at

0:19:57.720 --> 0:20:00.680
<v Speaker 1>least according to our Bloomberg Intelligent Seen that is about

0:20:00.680 --> 0:20:03.960
<v Speaker 1>the upgrade to their investment grade status. Let's get into

0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:06.680
<v Speaker 1>it with Olivia Raymond, a credit markets and high yield

0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:08.919
<v Speaker 1>bond reporter for Bloomberg new She joins us on the

0:20:08.920 --> 0:20:11.639
<v Speaker 1>phone from here in New York City, Olivia. Great to

0:20:12.000 --> 0:20:14.560
<v Speaker 1>have you with us. UM can help us make the

0:20:14.560 --> 0:20:18.600
<v Speaker 1>connection here between what exactly is going on with with

0:20:19.160 --> 0:20:24.399
<v Speaker 1>Netflix right now on the credit side, and you know

0:20:25.000 --> 0:20:27.440
<v Speaker 1>what we've seen with with Netflix is stock in recent

0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:31.439
<v Speaker 1>years as it's continued to just fly higher. Yeah, so

0:20:31.560 --> 0:20:35.080
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for having me on. So Netflix

0:20:35.200 --> 0:20:39.600
<v Speaker 1>is poised to become a so called rising star at

0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:43.200
<v Speaker 1>some point this year. And what that means for listeners

0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:46.280
<v Speaker 1>who aren't aware, aren't aware of that phrase, that just

0:20:46.359 --> 0:20:50.320
<v Speaker 1>simply means that a junk graded company is moved into

0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:53.399
<v Speaker 1>investment grade status and all of its debt gets moved

0:20:53.400 --> 0:20:59.400
<v Speaker 1>into investment grade UH indices. So Netflix already has one

0:20:59.520 --> 0:21:04.680
<v Speaker 1>high grade rating from SMP. They upgraded Netflix last October,

0:21:05.160 --> 0:21:08.879
<v Speaker 1>so all it needs is a second rating from a

0:21:08.920 --> 0:21:11.280
<v Speaker 1>second high grade rating from one of the major rading

0:21:11.600 --> 0:21:14.720
<v Speaker 1>rating agencies for it to bump up to that rising

0:21:14.720 --> 0:21:17.240
<v Speaker 1>star status. So tell us about what that means, because

0:21:17.280 --> 0:21:22.960
<v Speaker 1>that means basically what servicing your debt costs less. Yeah, exactly. So,

0:21:22.960 --> 0:21:27.440
<v Speaker 1>So when companies leave junk status and become investment grade UM,

0:21:27.520 --> 0:21:30.760
<v Speaker 1>they can get financed from a deeper pool of borrowers

0:21:30.800 --> 0:21:32.960
<v Speaker 1>at lower rates. So what are the changes that the

0:21:33.000 --> 0:21:35.280
<v Speaker 1>company has made in order to boosts credit rating? How

0:21:35.320 --> 0:21:39.240
<v Speaker 1>has this happened? Yes, so that their credit metrics have

0:21:40.119 --> 0:21:45.040
<v Speaker 1>performed um and have been improving. They have raise an

0:21:45.080 --> 0:21:48.919
<v Speaker 1>ample amount of liquidity, and they've also signaled that they

0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:52.040
<v Speaker 1>are not going to need to take out much more

0:21:52.119 --> 0:21:55.159
<v Speaker 1>debt in the future due to the recent successes that

0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:59.240
<v Speaker 1>they've had, especially over the pandemic. When everyone lives stuck

0:21:59.280 --> 0:22:01.879
<v Speaker 1>at home, watch movies and shows on the streaming circuit

0:22:02.080 --> 0:22:06.880
<v Speaker 1>streaming service excuse me, and m boost its h boosts viewers.

0:22:07.000 --> 0:22:11.240
<v Speaker 1>So so that's helped it UM shore up some money

0:22:11.320 --> 0:22:13.760
<v Speaker 1>and I need to tap the bond market less frequently.

0:22:14.240 --> 0:22:16.119
<v Speaker 1>Well okay, so so just to help me out here,

0:22:16.119 --> 0:22:18.360
<v Speaker 1>because I don't cover the credit market closely at all,

0:22:18.480 --> 0:22:21.359
<v Speaker 1>So you know, I I really focus. I looked to

0:22:21.440 --> 0:22:23.640
<v Speaker 1>a lot of the equity performance and you know here

0:22:23.880 --> 0:22:27.960
<v Speaker 1>so far. You know, Netflix was underperformed the NASTAC but

0:22:28.000 --> 0:22:30.400
<v Speaker 1>finished hired by eleven, it was hired by sixty seven,

0:22:31.560 --> 0:22:38.399
<v Speaker 1>was hired by ninety and twenty seventy. To the credit

0:22:38.480 --> 0:22:41.280
<v Speaker 1>market person about the equity, Yeah, because what I'm saying

0:22:41.359 --> 0:22:44.359
<v Speaker 1>is is that the rating for the credit rating hasn't

0:22:44.400 --> 0:22:48.239
<v Speaker 1>really dissuaded equity investors here, So are they have they

0:22:48.280 --> 0:22:53.359
<v Speaker 1>been stupid? That's what I'm That's what I'm thank you, Carol. No, No,

0:22:53.600 --> 0:22:56.159
<v Speaker 1>what what what I what we're seeing more? Did they

0:22:56.160 --> 0:23:01.760
<v Speaker 1>have foresight? Yeah, what we're seeing is investor foresight here.

0:23:02.119 --> 0:23:08.480
<v Speaker 1>They're anticipating that Netflix fundamentals will continue to improve um

0:23:08.520 --> 0:23:12.919
<v Speaker 1>and that's reflected in the credit rating analysis that the

0:23:12.960 --> 0:23:15.879
<v Speaker 1>major graders send out as well. It's so fair to

0:23:15.880 --> 0:23:18.720
<v Speaker 1>say it's like a lagging indicatory, right, which one the

0:23:18.720 --> 0:23:21.240
<v Speaker 1>equity market, the credit mark, the credit market. But isn't

0:23:21.280 --> 0:23:24.159
<v Speaker 1>the credit market often well? So tell us about right,

0:23:24.240 --> 0:23:27.040
<v Speaker 1>we spend so much time, as you know, Olivia, talking

0:23:27.080 --> 0:23:29.600
<v Speaker 1>about the equity side of things, but the credit markets,

0:23:29.720 --> 0:23:32.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, can often tell you very quickly if a

0:23:32.160 --> 0:23:35.200
<v Speaker 1>company is in trouble. So I'm just thinking about for

0:23:35.200 --> 0:23:38.800
<v Speaker 1>our you know, our audience who watch both things. But again,

0:23:38.800 --> 0:23:40.600
<v Speaker 1>we talked so much about the equity side of things.

0:23:41.040 --> 0:23:44.000
<v Speaker 1>You know, what does this potential upgrade also mean in

0:23:44.119 --> 0:23:47.760
<v Speaker 1>terms of how investors overall look at this company or

0:23:47.800 --> 0:23:49.880
<v Speaker 1>maybe should look at this company, especially when you dig

0:23:49.920 --> 0:23:54.040
<v Speaker 1>deeper into that balance sheet. Yeah for sure. Um. You

0:23:54.080 --> 0:23:59.720
<v Speaker 1>know the important thing there is that, um, what happens

0:23:59.720 --> 0:24:02.760
<v Speaker 1>off and is one of company is upgraded to investment grade,

0:24:02.800 --> 0:24:06.400
<v Speaker 1>they issue bonds very shortly after because they can get

0:24:06.440 --> 0:24:10.640
<v Speaker 1>them at a lower yield um, and so therefore they

0:24:10.680 --> 0:24:14.959
<v Speaker 1>tend to trade better than the broader market. So um,

0:24:15.080 --> 0:24:17.840
<v Speaker 1>according to Bank of America strategists, Um, and this is

0:24:17.840 --> 0:24:21.040
<v Speaker 1>a quote, rising star should be bought as soon as possible.

0:24:21.359 --> 0:24:23.880
<v Speaker 1>And that's not just for Netflix, but for the potential

0:24:24.080 --> 0:24:28.040
<v Speaker 1>hundred and sixty nine billion dollar wave of rising stars

0:24:28.040 --> 0:24:30.880
<v Speaker 1>that we could see this year after we had a

0:24:31.000 --> 0:24:34.840
<v Speaker 1>very large credit rating downgrade during amid the worst of

0:24:34.840 --> 0:24:37.400
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic. Hey, just quickly, and if I think about

0:24:37.400 --> 0:24:40.040
<v Speaker 1>in the equity side, thing we've talked so much about indexing, right,

0:24:40.119 --> 0:24:42.560
<v Speaker 1>are are people who are invested in index funds? Same

0:24:42.600 --> 0:24:45.199
<v Speaker 1>thing though, if you're you know, the credit is upgraded, right,

0:24:45.240 --> 0:24:47.920
<v Speaker 1>you're more likely to be in a lot more corporate

0:24:48.200 --> 0:24:52.280
<v Speaker 1>indexing funds or index funds. So that's exactly what happens.

0:24:52.320 --> 0:24:56.120
<v Speaker 1>Is your company has moved to investment grade status, your

0:24:56.760 --> 0:25:00.200
<v Speaker 1>your debt leaves all high yields and to see is

0:25:00.359 --> 0:25:03.920
<v Speaker 1>and it's moved into investment grade in disease. All right,

0:25:04.480 --> 0:25:07.440
<v Speaker 1>makes sense, good reason to keep an eye on Netflix,

0:25:07.760 --> 0:25:10.720
<v Speaker 1>and always important to look at the credit side of things. Um, Olivia,

0:25:10.760 --> 0:25:13.720
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Olivia Raymond. She's credit markets and

0:25:13.760 --> 0:25:15.960
<v Speaker 1>high yield bond reporter on the phone in New York City.

0:25:16.280 --> 0:25:18.159
<v Speaker 1>You can't say you're not a cult person. I'll admit it.

0:25:18.200 --> 0:25:20.359
<v Speaker 1>Look at all this stuff we do. But I you know,

0:25:20.600 --> 0:25:23.679
<v Speaker 1>rising Star that works pretty well for Netflix. It's a

0:25:23.680 --> 0:25:26.240
<v Speaker 1>better trend than maybe it does. It works so well

0:25:26.240 --> 0:25:27.960
<v Speaker 1>for Netflix. It's a show that it's a company that

0:25:28.240 --> 0:25:31.080
<v Speaker 1>is focused on stars. Whether you know that swid game

0:25:31.200 --> 0:25:33.479
<v Speaker 1>or what was that movie, Power of the Dog. Carol

0:25:33.920 --> 0:25:37.359
<v Speaker 1>liked Yeah, Tim recommended it. I'm sorry, I just liked it.

0:25:37.440 --> 0:25:41.720
<v Speaker 1>I lost it was lost on me. Yeah, but you

0:25:41.800 --> 0:25:44.159
<v Speaker 1>let me drive? Oh no, no, no, no, this is

0:25:44.200 --> 0:25:51.160
<v Speaker 1>not a toy. Oh please, I'll do I want to dry.

0:25:53.480 --> 0:26:04.520
<v Speaker 1>It's a good question. This is the drive to the CLOBEO.

0:26:04.680 --> 0:26:06.320
<v Speaker 1>All right, So I I just got about ten minutes left

0:26:06.359 --> 0:26:10.080
<v Speaker 1>in today's trading session. We are driving to the close.

0:26:10.160 --> 0:26:13.879
<v Speaker 1>Let's bringin our guest, Laurie Heinal. She's Global Chief investment officer.

0:26:13.920 --> 0:26:16.639
<v Speaker 1>Excuse me, Global chief investment officer over its State Street

0:26:16.640 --> 0:26:20.800
<v Speaker 1>Global Advisors. They've got three point eighty six trillion dollars

0:26:20.840 --> 0:26:24.240
<v Speaker 1>in assets under management, managing a lot. And she joins

0:26:24.320 --> 0:26:26.240
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Boston, Laurie, how are you

0:26:26.280 --> 0:26:29.879
<v Speaker 1>happy New Year? Happy New yor doing great to us?

0:26:29.880 --> 0:26:32.440
<v Speaker 1>Seeing a little bit of fun finally, Oh my gosh, right,

0:26:32.960 --> 0:26:35.560
<v Speaker 1>it feels good. It's un I don't know, it's a

0:26:35.560 --> 0:26:39.800
<v Speaker 1>little gray here, but um interesting first couple of days

0:26:39.800 --> 0:26:41.800
<v Speaker 1>of trading. Two days does not make a trend, and

0:26:41.880 --> 0:26:45.600
<v Speaker 1>yet we're bouncing off our loads here today. What's what's

0:26:45.800 --> 0:26:48.040
<v Speaker 1>on the mind of investors right now is they try

0:26:48.040 --> 0:26:50.239
<v Speaker 1>to make investment bets and maybe kind of set up

0:26:50.240 --> 0:26:54.200
<v Speaker 1>their portfolio for the new year. Well, lots of things

0:26:54.200 --> 0:26:56.640
<v Speaker 1>are on investor's minds right now, but two of them

0:26:56.640 --> 0:26:58.360
<v Speaker 1>are things that have been on our minds for quite

0:26:58.359 --> 0:27:02.000
<v Speaker 1>a while now, COVID and FED, and those two things

0:27:02.000 --> 0:27:04.480
<v Speaker 1>are moving in a little bit opposite directions right now,

0:27:04.520 --> 0:27:08.360
<v Speaker 1>because obviously we have concerns about COVID, particularly a macron,

0:27:08.640 --> 0:27:11.399
<v Speaker 1>but we're also starting to see that perhaps this version

0:27:11.560 --> 0:27:15.119
<v Speaker 1>of COVID takes us to more of an endemic situation

0:27:15.160 --> 0:27:17.320
<v Speaker 1>where it's lots about the pandemic and more about learning

0:27:17.359 --> 0:27:19.399
<v Speaker 1>to live with the virus. On the other hand, we've

0:27:19.400 --> 0:27:22.320
<v Speaker 1>got a FED that seems to have moved quite hawkish,

0:27:22.440 --> 0:27:24.879
<v Speaker 1>quite quickly, so those two things are likely to be

0:27:24.960 --> 0:27:28.720
<v Speaker 1>what will battle it out in the first half of Okay,

0:27:28.760 --> 0:27:31.359
<v Speaker 1>So give us an idea of asset allocation, because we

0:27:31.440 --> 0:27:34.399
<v Speaker 1>spent a lot of last week talking about fixed income

0:27:34.480 --> 0:27:36.560
<v Speaker 1>and whether or not there actually is a role for

0:27:36.600 --> 0:27:39.240
<v Speaker 1>fixed income in portfolios right now with the direction of

0:27:39.280 --> 0:27:42.159
<v Speaker 1>interest rates and where they are now. Uh, do you

0:27:42.200 --> 0:27:46.200
<v Speaker 1>think there's still a role for fixed income? Well, certainly,

0:27:46.280 --> 0:27:48.960
<v Speaker 1>as allocation has not gotten any easier, and there are

0:27:48.960 --> 0:27:51.040
<v Speaker 1>a couple of dynamics at play. First of all, we've

0:27:51.040 --> 0:27:53.840
<v Speaker 1>had pretty lofty valuations in lots of parts of the

0:27:53.840 --> 0:27:57.160
<v Speaker 1>equity markets. But as you note, given that fixed income

0:27:57.240 --> 0:27:59.359
<v Speaker 1>interest rates are just so very low, even with a

0:27:59.400 --> 0:28:01.840
<v Speaker 1>little bit of a back up here, fixed incomes just

0:28:01.960 --> 0:28:04.840
<v Speaker 1>not that attractive. So we've been trying to do a

0:28:04.880 --> 0:28:07.480
<v Speaker 1>couple of things. First of all, look for other opportunities

0:28:07.480 --> 0:28:11.760
<v Speaker 1>with inequities where relative valuations are more attractive. So we've

0:28:11.800 --> 0:28:15.680
<v Speaker 1>recently been repositioning out of US more into Europe, where

0:28:15.720 --> 0:28:18.240
<v Speaker 1>we think they benefit from the cyclical trade and we

0:28:18.280 --> 0:28:21.000
<v Speaker 1>can get more attractive pricing. But we've also looked at

0:28:21.000 --> 0:28:23.920
<v Speaker 1>fixed income places where there's a little bit better yield,

0:28:24.000 --> 0:28:27.680
<v Speaker 1>so looking at credit, looking at emerging markets debt for example,

0:28:27.960 --> 0:28:31.440
<v Speaker 1>and perhaps putting a few other diversifiers in there, including commodities.

0:28:32.880 --> 0:28:35.960
<v Speaker 1>Interesting US though versus the rest of the world. How

0:28:35.960 --> 0:28:40.000
<v Speaker 1>do you see it? Yeah, well, so for many, many years,

0:28:40.040 --> 0:28:43.640
<v Speaker 1>the US has been our core equity position, and we've

0:28:43.680 --> 0:28:48.040
<v Speaker 1>been overweight at times pretty significantly versus the rest of

0:28:48.040 --> 0:28:50.680
<v Speaker 1>the world. But we actually think two is going to

0:28:50.760 --> 0:28:53.280
<v Speaker 1>be a time when you want to pivot and focus

0:28:53.360 --> 0:28:55.800
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more on non US assets. If you

0:28:55.840 --> 0:28:59.680
<v Speaker 1>look at the rotation from kind of growth stocks into

0:28:59.680 --> 0:29:03.680
<v Speaker 1>more clickal sectors, European industries are just much more represented

0:29:03.720 --> 0:29:06.800
<v Speaker 1>in those cyclical section sectors, which should benefit as this

0:29:06.960 --> 0:29:10.000
<v Speaker 1>recovery takes hold. So our trade is really more out

0:29:10.000 --> 0:29:14.240
<v Speaker 1>of US, although not terribly underweight, but more into European

0:29:14.480 --> 0:29:17.160
<v Speaker 1>for more high growth opportunities for investors. So are you

0:29:17.200 --> 0:29:22.440
<v Speaker 1>betting that Europe will outperform the US at the moment.

0:29:22.480 --> 0:29:24.600
<v Speaker 1>That's the way we're positioned. And again we think there

0:29:24.600 --> 0:29:26.040
<v Speaker 1>are a couple of things that put a little bit

0:29:26.040 --> 0:29:28.560
<v Speaker 1>of wind in the sales of Europe, as I mentioned,

0:29:28.600 --> 0:29:31.800
<v Speaker 1>a bit more cyclical representation. So those are stocks that

0:29:32.040 --> 0:29:35.160
<v Speaker 1>should that perform as we continue into the growth sector

0:29:35.680 --> 0:29:38.560
<v Speaker 1>or growth engine, if you will, as the economic growth recovers.

0:29:38.840 --> 0:29:41.360
<v Speaker 1>We also think that the central bank there will be

0:29:41.400 --> 0:29:44.240
<v Speaker 1>a bit more dubbish, which should provide a bit more

0:29:44.400 --> 0:29:48.560
<v Speaker 1>opportunity for evaluation expansion. And we also think that Europe

0:29:48.640 --> 0:29:52.640
<v Speaker 1>has a lot of other, um, you know, dimensions, notably

0:29:53.040 --> 0:29:55.280
<v Speaker 1>being willing to have a bit more fiscal stimulus, which

0:29:55.280 --> 0:29:57.600
<v Speaker 1>is something that has not happened in New York really

0:29:57.640 --> 0:30:00.800
<v Speaker 1>for the last decade. How is lori um kind of

0:30:00.840 --> 0:30:04.480
<v Speaker 1>the great decoupling that we might see among global central banks?

0:30:04.480 --> 0:30:07.520
<v Speaker 1>In other words, you know what we see spheres of

0:30:07.560 --> 0:30:10.320
<v Speaker 1>monetary influence, not my words, but our Tom or like

0:30:10.400 --> 0:30:13.720
<v Speaker 1>chief economist at Bloomberg, and he's looking at this great

0:30:13.760 --> 0:30:16.840
<v Speaker 1>decoupling of global central banks where we will see some

0:30:17.000 --> 0:30:21.160
<v Speaker 1>raising rates, some not, or some even cutting rates. And

0:30:21.360 --> 0:30:23.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, certainly when you look at something like China

0:30:23.400 --> 0:30:26.600
<v Speaker 1>versus the US, you could see two giants in the

0:30:26.600 --> 0:30:30.480
<v Speaker 1>global economy pursuing very different monetary strategies. What are the

0:30:30.480 --> 0:30:33.840
<v Speaker 1>implications of that. Well, first of all, I think that's

0:30:33.840 --> 0:30:36.560
<v Speaker 1>spot on. Again. Keep in mind that the backdrop for

0:30:36.720 --> 0:30:40.240
<v Speaker 1>literally the last decade has been to try to stimulate growth.

0:30:40.600 --> 0:30:44.120
<v Speaker 1>There wasn't any inflation that was any of any concern

0:30:44.200 --> 0:30:47.600
<v Speaker 1>to any central bankers, and so they could be much

0:30:47.640 --> 0:30:51.320
<v Speaker 1>more dubbish and their posture in support of markets and

0:30:51.320 --> 0:30:53.800
<v Speaker 1>in support of economies. But now we're in a different

0:30:53.840 --> 0:30:56.800
<v Speaker 1>place where we are starting to see inflation in some

0:30:56.840 --> 0:30:58.600
<v Speaker 1>parts of the the world, notably here in the U S

0:30:58.640 --> 0:31:01.040
<v Speaker 1>where as I mentioned earlier, and the FEDS suddenly gotten

0:31:01.040 --> 0:31:04.160
<v Speaker 1>a lot more concerned about that. We also have different

0:31:04.160 --> 0:31:07.280
<v Speaker 1>growth factors here, so China, for example, has seen their

0:31:07.320 --> 0:31:10.720
<v Speaker 1>growth rate slow pretty dramatically over the last couple of years.

0:31:10.800 --> 0:31:15.240
<v Speaker 1>So it's a combination of inflationary pressures, growth trajectory, and

0:31:15.800 --> 0:31:18.760
<v Speaker 1>also just you know how there are other dynamics like

0:31:18.800 --> 0:31:21.880
<v Speaker 1>the fiscal policy that are going to come into play here. Laurie.

0:31:22.120 --> 0:31:24.000
<v Speaker 1>You know, we talk a lot about inflation, and that's

0:31:24.000 --> 0:31:27.760
<v Speaker 1>certainly being a concern for many strategist going into two.

0:31:27.800 --> 0:31:32.400
<v Speaker 1>When do you think inflation peaks? Uh, Well, we actually

0:31:32.440 --> 0:31:34.840
<v Speaker 1>think that we may have seen the worst of it,

0:31:35.440 --> 0:31:37.240
<v Speaker 1>but that that doesn't mean we're going to go back

0:31:37.280 --> 0:31:41.640
<v Speaker 1>to the two rates that we had enjoyed pre covid um.

0:31:41.720 --> 0:31:44.080
<v Speaker 1>But what's likely to happen in our view is that

0:31:44.280 --> 0:31:48.120
<v Speaker 1>the beginning of two thousand two will still have higher

0:31:48.120 --> 0:31:51.760
<v Speaker 1>than normal inflation, but the inflation drivers will start to

0:31:51.880 --> 0:31:54.800
<v Speaker 1>rotate a bit. So, for example, energy prices were a

0:31:54.880 --> 0:31:59.080
<v Speaker 1>big driver of inflation in one and likely will continue

0:31:59.080 --> 0:32:01.480
<v Speaker 1>a little bit into point twenty two, but suddenly the

0:32:01.560 --> 0:32:03.840
<v Speaker 1>comps on the year over year basis will become a

0:32:03.880 --> 0:32:07.240
<v Speaker 1>lot different. On the other hand, we think that things

0:32:07.320 --> 0:32:10.280
<v Speaker 1>like real estate and owners equivalent rents are likely to

0:32:10.400 --> 0:32:12.760
<v Speaker 1>pick up in the second half of two as we

0:32:12.800 --> 0:32:15.760
<v Speaker 1>start to see some of those rental prices continue to

0:32:16.360 --> 0:32:18.760
<v Speaker 1>grind higher. So so we think we may have hit

0:32:18.800 --> 0:32:21.080
<v Speaker 1>the peak or or very near the peak, but that

0:32:21.120 --> 0:32:24.360
<v Speaker 1>doesn't mean we're going back to that sub two percent level. Uh.

0:32:25.560 --> 0:32:28.120
<v Speaker 1>Jobs and the labor market. Do you think it continues

0:32:28.160 --> 0:32:30.760
<v Speaker 1>to provide some optimism going forward. Just got about twenty

0:32:30.760 --> 0:32:33.920
<v Speaker 1>seconds here, Yeah, we do. We actually think that there

0:32:33.960 --> 0:32:35.840
<v Speaker 1>could be a bit of an upside surprise of a

0:32:35.880 --> 0:32:39.480
<v Speaker 1>consensive number of just over four thousand and maybe more

0:32:39.520 --> 0:32:42.080
<v Speaker 1>in the form of revisions versus the actual print for

0:32:42.200 --> 0:32:45.400
<v Speaker 1>last months. But we do think that manufacturing will hold

0:32:45.480 --> 0:32:47.800
<v Speaker 1>up well here in the service sector, while being a

0:32:47.840 --> 0:32:50.080
<v Speaker 1>little bit challenged right at the moment, is likely to

0:32:50.080 --> 0:32:52.520
<v Speaker 1>be pretty resilient. Right. We did get some optimism from

0:32:52.520 --> 0:32:55.520
<v Speaker 1>the I S M manufacturing. We did see delivery times

0:32:55.520 --> 0:33:00.240
<v Speaker 1>and prices um improving coming down in terms of prices

0:33:00.280 --> 0:33:03.520
<v Speaker 1>in delivery times reducing, which maybe that supply chain constraints

0:33:03.680 --> 0:33:05.840
<v Speaker 1>getting better. All right, Lori, we gotta run Happy new year.

0:33:05.880 --> 0:33:08.720
<v Speaker 1>Laurie Heinel, She's Global Chief Investment Officer at state Tree

0:33:08.760 --> 0:33:12.280
<v Speaker 1>Global Advisors. Tons of money, almost four trillion in assets

0:33:12.360 --> 0:33:16.760
<v Speaker 1>under management, on the phone from Boston. Thanks for listening

0:33:16.760 --> 0:33:20.240
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:33:20.320 --> 0:33:22.480
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to

0:33:22.520 --> 0:33:25.080
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0:33:25.200 --> 0:33:27.920
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