WEBVTT - Chuck’s Commentary - Nobody “Wins” A Shutdown + Israel’s Popularity With American Public + Top 5 Governor’s Seats Most Likely To Flip 0:00:03.880 --> 0:00:07.040 Hello there, Welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast. 0:00:07.320 --> 0:00:10.280 Full disclosure because you're seeing that, Hey, you're not in 0:00:10.360 --> 0:00:13.200 your normal studio. No, I am not. I'm on the 0:00:13.200 --> 0:00:17.480 lovely campus of the University of Southern California, or as 0:00:17.520 --> 0:00:21.279 my friends in Columbia, South Carolina would say, the USC 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:25.159 of the West. I am out here. I got to 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:29.280 participate in a meeting of the Big Ten government relations staff. 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:32.400 That's right, if you forgot the USC is in the 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:34.920 Big Ten, and so we got the host SUSPENI. It 0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:38.800 was actually quite interesting, quite fun, and I got to 0:00:38.960 --> 0:00:41.440 give a shout out to the Big Ten more so 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:43.599 than the other conferences. Though I'm not saying the other 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:49.040 conferences aren't trying to create non athletic sort of collaborative 0:00:49.040 --> 0:00:52.200 efforts here, but the Big Ten does seem to be 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:57.240 more aggressive and better at having non athletic collaboration between 0:00:57.320 --> 0:01:01.520 the schools and it only you know, it's sort of 0:01:01.560 --> 0:01:04.960 if you're going to create these super conferences, you know, 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:07.800 figure out ways to take advantage. I mean, if you're 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:12.560 the ACC. Hey, guys, you got some incredible elite universities 0:01:12.600 --> 0:01:16.280 from Duke to Miami to Georgia Tech to Stanford to 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:21.880 cal to SMU and ton in between. These are this 0:01:21.920 --> 0:01:26.000 is an opportunity. Bcs are another rising school. Syracuse is great. 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:28.759 You know, take a page from how the Big ten 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:32.320 is operating. SEC could could benefit in the same way. 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:35.160 My understanding the Big twelve is trying to figure out 0:01:35.200 --> 0:01:39.319 how to how to create some sort of some sort 0:01:39.360 --> 0:01:43.000 of collaboration. So, as many of you know, I teach 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:47.720 adjunct and the scholar in residence at the USC DC campus. 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.440 So it does afford me the opportunity to come out 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:53.960 to La once or twice a year for some of 0:01:53.960 --> 0:01:56.800 my USC duties. And so that's where we're coming from today. 0:01:57.880 --> 0:02:01.440 As you know, most Wednesdays, I want to lean more 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:05.360 into my campaign roots, my political junkie roots. So I'll 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:08.000 have a later in this broadcast the top five list 0:02:08.080 --> 0:02:11.880 on the top five most likely governor seats to flip 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:14.040 that I'm going to. It's both twenty five and twenty six. 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:16.480 It will include the two races talking about now, and 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:18.400 I yes, I will have a lot more to say 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:21.519 about Virginia like I did on Monday there. I think 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:25.119 there's definitely a lot more to say there. But I thought, look, 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:26.800 I want a few words on what we're dealing with 0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:30.400 right now. The shutdown is still here. I told you 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:34.960 at the beginning of this shutdown debate that perhaps the 0:02:36.040 --> 0:02:38.840 entity that had the most power to end this shutdown 0:02:38.960 --> 0:02:43.399 might be the air traffic controllers and TSA agents and will. 0:02:43.520 --> 0:02:47.960 Already we're seeing the impact of an increasing number of 0:02:48.000 --> 0:02:51.440 air traffic controllers whose next paycheck is in jeopardy on 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:56.280 October fourteenth. Sickouts are already slightly up a bit at 0:02:56.320 --> 0:02:59.040 a faster pace. I was out here in California, it 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:01.160 was a big breaking news alert on all the TVs 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:04.720 when I was in the wonderful Annenberg Journalism School newsroom. 0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:07.720 They have a terrific sort of hub newsroom looks looks 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:10.320 like any major TV network that you would walk into. 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:13.000 And the big breaking news on the local California news 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:16.240 stations was the Burbank Airport was suddenly going to have 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:20.560 major flight delays due to air traffic control issues. There's 0:03:20.720 --> 0:03:22.720 if you go on social media now you know that 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:26.080 Nashville is experiencing this. We've seen Newark, which seems to 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:32.560 have constant issues with that as well. So while I'm 0:03:32.600 --> 0:03:34.480 not going to sit here and tell you the you know, 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:38.320 I was, I was sort of I'm going to stick 0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:41.920 to my initial prediction that we wouldn't that this shutdown 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:45.840 would likely end by this weekend. But let's just say 0:03:46.560 --> 0:03:48.440 I'm not sure I have a winning ticket on that 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:53.520 bet right now, because I do think both sides have 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:57.360 convinced themselves thanks mostly to their you know, the fact 0:03:57.400 --> 0:04:01.000 that we have a siloed information ecosystem that they're making 0:04:01.080 --> 0:04:05.200 that somehow they're winning and somehow this is working for 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:08.960 them and they're not losing anything on this so until 0:04:09.160 --> 0:04:11.200 there's real pain, and I do think the air traffic 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:16.360 controller issue is something that likely will penetrate both information ecosystems, 0:04:16.360 --> 0:04:18.960 the left wing one and the right wing one, because 0:04:18.960 --> 0:04:23.080 everybody travels. And this gets back to my initial rant 0:04:23.200 --> 0:04:28.039 on how this is a ridiculous feature of the US system. 0:04:28.279 --> 0:04:32.080 There is no constitutional amendment that says appropriations no longer 0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:37.159 can be used to pay people if Congress can't meet 0:04:37.320 --> 0:04:40.000 a deadline. This is no way to run a company, 0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:43.080 let alone a country. Okay, the fact that we are 0:04:43.120 --> 0:04:48.400 putting the lives of thousands in danger travel around air 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:51.800 let alone being just simply disruptive to their lives, screwing 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:57.359 up people's job interviews, screwing up people's emergency visits to 0:04:57.440 --> 0:05:03.120 sick relatives, maybe they miss a funeral, all because of 0:05:03.160 --> 0:05:06.520 this political theater. This stuff's important, what they're debating. I'm 0:05:06.520 --> 0:05:10.400 not going to deny that. But the idea that we 0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:12.760 simply shut down the government to have these debates is 0:05:13.279 --> 0:05:19.239 just ridiculous. It shouldn't. This is not about who triggered 0:05:19.240 --> 0:05:24.720 the shutdown. The shutdown shouldn't be allowed to happen, and 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:29.360 it is something that only Congress can easily stop this. 0:05:30.360 --> 0:05:34.119 They have chosen, both parties have chosen not to allow 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:36.920 this to happen. And once again, by the way, the 0:05:36.960 --> 0:05:40.039 power to open up the government is actually solely in 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:44.440 the hands of Republican senators. They waive the filibuster. Government 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:49.840 opens the second they finished voting. So do keep that 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:55.680 in mind. Now. I think it's arguably potentially a good 0:05:55.720 --> 0:06:00.400 thing when it comes to I think to fill buster 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:04.599 not as it's used today, but the idea of one 0:06:04.720 --> 0:06:07.920 is still something that that should be a feature of 0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:10.440 the United States Senate. There's a better way to use it, 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:15.279 that's for sure. But again, Republicans could open the government tomorrow. 0:06:15.560 --> 0:06:17.240 All they got to do is get rid of the philibuster. 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:21.400 They have the votes on their own to do it. Obviously, 0:06:21.400 --> 0:06:24.440 the Democrats also have the power with their with just 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:28.680 handing over five vote five more Senate votes to do that. 0:06:29.279 --> 0:06:33.400 But either way, I'm sorry. When you're disrupting people's lives, 0:06:33.480 --> 0:06:38.560 you're not winning anything. I do think Democrats have certainly 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:40.960 gotten the attention of Republicans on the issue of healthcare. 0:06:41.440 --> 0:06:44.200 But Republicans knew already that they were vulnerable on healthcare. 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:50.200 And you know it's possible. Here's the iordy to this. 0:06:50.360 --> 0:06:53.200 If if, if this shut down a complic gives the 0:06:53.200 --> 0:06:56.600 Democrats the ability, gives the Republicans the ability to say, oh, 0:06:56.600 --> 0:07:01.560 they fixed healthcare in this compromise. The irony is that 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:03.360 the Democrats may have taken away one of their best 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:08.520 issues to use in the midterms. But I digress. But 0:07:08.600 --> 0:07:10.600 before I get to a campaign update, I do think 0:07:10.680 --> 0:07:16.320 I've been talked about the potential final end. I'm taping 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:18.280 on October seventh, so it seemed to be a good 0:07:18.280 --> 0:07:20.920 time to check in on There's a lot of polling 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:22.920 that's been out there on Israel, not just in the 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:25.840 United States, but it's some polling in Israel, and it's 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:27.480 the polling in Israel, and I think a lot of 0:07:27.480 --> 0:07:31.320 people haven't seen or heard about, so I thought I 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:35.000 would get there discuss a little bit of the polling 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:37.360 on how Israel has lost it's standing in the United 0:07:37.400 --> 0:07:40.160 States and it's really starting Jewey roade across the board. 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:42.440 It certainly Israel still has more support on the right 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:44.440 than the left in this country, but it is eroding 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:49.960 generally more. It's really bb Well unpopularity is growing. He's 0:07:49.960 --> 0:07:53.480 never been a popular guy here, but his unpopularity is growing. 0:07:54.320 --> 0:07:57.440 But what's striking is how unpopular he is in the 0:07:57.520 --> 0:08:00.520 state of Israel. And I will get to that, but 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:03.000 I do think it's you know, what have we learned 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:06.440 about Israel over the last two years. What's been the 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:10.920 sort of fallout from all of this? And I think 0:08:11.240 --> 0:08:14.960 what's interesting is on the US relationship with Israel. I 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:17.280 want to associate myself with some comments that Ian bremer 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:21.680 Maide in his newsletter because I thought it was really smart. 0:08:21.840 --> 0:08:25.800 You know, it's an interesting conundrum that Israel's in right now. 0:08:26.640 --> 0:08:32.360 Israel under BB's leadership has never looked as powerful or 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:37.480 as alone. So many Western governments have embraced the idea 0:08:37.480 --> 0:08:41.880 of Palestinian statehood, and there's in some ways, Israel has 0:08:41.920 --> 0:08:47.760 one friend, the United States. That's it. It makes the 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:50.760 relationship with the United States that much more important to 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:55.080 any current or future prime minister of Israel. And it 0:08:55.080 --> 0:08:58.040 gives the United States more leverage and arguably more global 0:08:58.080 --> 0:09:03.200 responsibility for managing, if you will, or influencing or however 0:09:03.240 --> 0:09:07.520 you want to put it, or the belief that they 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:13.640 have influence over Israel. But the is the Israeli government 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:19.080 has never been more tied and more in need of 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:22.880 US support and more lena. They have no other allies 0:09:24.360 --> 0:09:26.560 like the United States nowhere even close. Not saying they 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:29.920 don't have other friends out there, but it's only due 0:09:29.960 --> 0:09:32.959 to the United States that they have some Sunni Arab 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:36.120 states that are friends. But it's sort of like their 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:39.040 friends because of the United States. Whether they'd be friends 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:41.040 with Israel on their own as a whole other story. 0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:45.520 But I thought that was an interesting piece of analysis 0:09:45.520 --> 0:09:49.360 by In. You know, I like to frequently bring onto 0:09:49.360 --> 0:09:53.280 the podcast as my international expert, one of the just 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:56.720 smarter global political scientists that are out there. But it's 0:09:56.760 --> 0:09:59.520 true because as a military power, Israel now is the 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:04.240 power of the there's no there's no there's no, there's 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:08.839 no close second. It's Israel and everybody else. So they 0:10:08.880 --> 0:10:15.360 have power. They're feared in the Middle East, and yet 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:20.280 it's out of fear, there's not there's less respect around 0:10:20.280 --> 0:10:24.320 the world because of BB's leadership too. Anyway, let me 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:25.680 get into some of the polling, because I think some 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:29.280 of this is interesting and worth taking a look at. 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:31.560 So look, there's still giant this is first. Let's talk 0:10:31.600 --> 0:10:36.400 about America's views of Israel in general, big part of 0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:38.760 some split seventy percent. This is a Pew poll by 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:41.760 the way that I'm citing Q came out last week, 0:10:42.200 --> 0:10:45.000 and there's this all this polling on on this side. 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:49.160 This is just the Americans. The pole of Israeli citizens 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:53.880 is by the Israeli Democracy Institute. Was conducted by the way, 0:10:53.920 --> 0:10:57.960 in Arabic and in Hebrew, because they also mean there's 0:10:57.960 --> 0:11:01.360 a lot of Israeli Arabs in the is Israeli population 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:04.600 as well. It was a large minority in the State 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.480 of Israel. But let me start with the US public opinion. 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:11.079 So first, the sort of predictable the Partisans split seventy 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:14.920 percent of Democrats or Democratic leaning independents view the Palestinian 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:18.280 people favorably. Just thirty seven percent of Republicans or Republican 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:22.080 leaners all those same views. The Israeli government is viewed 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:26.120 positively by fifty five percent of Republicans. Only eighteen percent 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:32.560 of Democrats view the Israeli government positively. On the Israeli people, 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:36.200 Democrats are evenly divided forty eight to forty eight favorable 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:40.079 unfavorable on the Israeli people. Republicans a much higher favorable 0:11:40.120 --> 0:11:46.040 view of the Israeli people sixty seven percent. Eighty two 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:49.240 percent of Republicans and fifty six percent of Democrats view 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:53.079 the Palestinian authority unfavorably. So while there are fewer Democrats 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:55.480 that view An unfavorable, majorities of both parties view the 0:11:55.520 --> 0:12:00.280 Palestinian authority unfavorably, and eight and ten Republicans and eight 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:06.240 and ten Democrats view AMAS unfavorably. But what's also interesting 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:10.439 is there is growing skepticism of Israel's operation in Gaza 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:13.960 over time. Thirty nine percent now say Israel has gone 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:18.240 too far in its military operation against Hamas. That's up 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:21.360 from thirty one percent at this same time in twenty 0:12:21.400 --> 0:12:24.560 twenty four, and it was twenty seven percent in late 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:29.320 twenty twenty three, just after Hamas took those hostages on 0:12:29.360 --> 0:12:34.320 October seven. And overall the Israeli government, which really is 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:37.600 bbe right, but the Israeli government, fifty nine percent of 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:42.280 America of Americans hold an unfavorable view of the Israeli government. 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:44.840 That is up from fifty one percent of last year. Look, 0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:47.320 you can't get to fifty nine percent of Americans on 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:52.160 anything without having essentially pieces of all three of America's 0:12:52.200 --> 0:12:55.720 sort of political tribes right, the left, center, and right. 0:12:56.840 --> 0:13:00.960 And that is definitely the case there. Now let me 0:13:01.040 --> 0:13:03.680 move to what we learned about the Israeli people, because 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:05.559 I think some of these numbers will surprise people, and 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:08.200 I think it's I say this as an American Jew, 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:12.320 you know we in some cases, I think folks that 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:15.880 are not familiar, you know, with there's plenty of diversity 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:19.000 of thought inside the American Jewish community, plenty of diversity 0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:24.079 of thought among American Jews. On bb the individual or 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:27.760 the Israeli government of the Palestinian people, that nuance gets lost, 0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:31.079 frankly in a lot of the conversation that takes place online, 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:36.200 which is as an American jew very frustrating to many 0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:40.640 of us. Many of us and look, we disagree amongst ourselves. 0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:44.800 We have plenty of debates in the Jewish community ourselves, 0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:47.880 but we're pretty good at debating. We like debating, I 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:50.880 will tell you that. But this to me, I think 0:13:51.320 --> 0:13:54.880 won't surprise American Jews, but this will surprise people who 0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:59.920 are not familiar as familiar. Sixty six percent of Israelis 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:04.000 say it's time to end the war in Gaza. Sixty 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:08.080 six percent of Israelis folks. Okay, that is up thirteen 0:14:08.160 --> 0:14:10.800 points from a year ago at this time, and another 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.680 the same essentially sixty six percent two thirds of the 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:18.040 country think Prime Minister Beating that Yahoo should take responsibility 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:20.760 for the security failures that led to the October seventh 0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:24.880 attacks and resign. Okay, Now to split up that number 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:28.280 just so you know, it's about forty five percent who 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:31.600 believed he should resign immediately. Now there's a whole chunk 0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:35.240 of Israelis that think that that BB. You know, it 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:38.640 was a security failure and he should take responsibility for this. 0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:42.880 He's never taken responsibility for the lack of smart security 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:48.000 around October seventh. And then there's another fifteen percent who 0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:51.160 believed that he should resign after the war is over, 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:55.400 finish the military operation and then resign. But it's pretty 0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:59.200 clear two thirds sixty basically sixty six percent of the 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:03.360 population thing it is time for BB to leave the stage. 0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:05.840 He's got to go. And I think it's I think 0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:09.920 there is a belief and this happens in any wartime situation. 0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:12.720 You know, this is not unique to Israel. Zelenski is 0:15:12.720 --> 0:15:14.320 going to be facing the same thing. There's going to 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:17.080 be fatigue the population. There's going to be a belief 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:20.440 the population that in some ways there's going to be 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:24.080 too much scar tissue with that leader, and they're never 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:27.120 you know, and frankly, they may be so warped that 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:29.440 they see everything as something they got to go to 0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:32.800 war to. And so just in general, you'll see there'll 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:36.360 be a similar situation in Ukraine where there'll be people 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:39.360 think it's time Brazilenski to go now. They may say 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:41.640 let's wait till after the war, don't change horses in 0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:44.640 midstream type of mindset, which is something that many a 0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:49.640 democracy goes through. But I just think in general, I 0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:53.760 think it's I know this, I knew he was more 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:56.640 unpopular than popular in Israel. I was surprised that the 0:15:56.720 --> 0:16:00.920 number would would be that high. This is worth in 0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:03.440 a question again of the Israeli public. A majority of 0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:06.400 the public believes that israel standing in the international arena 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:10.440 is worse today than it was before October seventh. Seventy 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:13.640 three percent of the overall sample believes this. And this 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:16.960 is across the board. Among Israeli Jews it's seventy six percent, 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:20.720 and among Israeli Arabs it is sixty percent. This is 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:22.200 also the view of the majority of each of the 0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:25.040 three political camps within Israel. Those on the left, ninety 0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:28.120 five percent of those in the Israeli left believe Israel's 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:31.360 international standing is worse today, eighty seven percent in the 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:36.200 political center, and even sixty nine percent in the political right. 0:16:36.600 --> 0:16:39.200 And what is the main goal of this war right, 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:42.520 There's been, frankly a debate inside Israel what should the goal? 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:44.720 Is the goal to get all the hostages home or 0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:47.880 is the goal to eradicate Hamas? Well. We've heard what 0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:50.240 Biebe says, and certainly what his right wing government says. 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:52.560 They want to make it about Hamas, but that is 0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:55.480 not where a majority of the Israeli public is sixty 0:16:55.480 --> 0:16:58.240 five percent of the Israeli public believe the main goal 0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:02.000 of the war in Godza today should only be bringing 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:08.280 the hostages home, hard stop, hard stop. And the share, 0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:10.000 by the way of people that old those views has 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:14.200 actually grown since January of twenty twenty four among both 0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:18.400 Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs. And it's really not surprising. 0:17:18.400 --> 0:17:22.920 There's fatigue, there's concern that they're frankly never going to 0:17:22.960 --> 0:17:29.199 get home in time on that front. But it's I 0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:31.920 just think here on this October seventh, we should reflect, 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:36.240 let's be hopeful that this is that we are potentially 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:39.520 at the end here. And you know, for all the 0:17:39.560 --> 0:17:44.119 grief everybody, this is a case where Donald I don't 0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:49.320 know if if another American president could be putting BB 0:17:49.720 --> 0:17:53.240 in his place on this a little bit. This is 0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:56.720 a case where Trump's using his sort of unique ability 0:17:56.760 --> 0:18:02.320 to bully for good. In a certain sense, this is 0:18:02.359 --> 0:18:05.199 not very good politics in general, it's not very good 0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:09.120 diplomacy in general. But sometimes you know, BB and Trump 0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:14.720 are very similar guys. They're clinging to power to avoid accountability, right, 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:18.560 They share a lot in common. They have gotten power 0:18:18.600 --> 0:18:22.840 without having a majority support, which is easier to explain 0:18:22.880 --> 0:18:25.080 in a parliamentary system a little harder to explain in 0:18:25.119 --> 0:18:28.160 our system. The two of them do have a lot 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:31.159 in common, but it also means Trump knows how to 0:18:31.760 --> 0:18:35.160 Trump knows how to bully BB because he knows who 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:41.280 BB is. So at this point, let's just hope we 0:18:41.320 --> 0:18:45.280 can turn the page, stop the killing, start the rebuilding, 0:18:45.600 --> 0:18:49.199 and see if the page came truly get turned. In 0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:57.840 the Middle East, there's a reason results matter more than promises, 0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:00.639 just like there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's 0:19:00.800 --> 0:19:03.920 largest injury law firm. For the last thirty five years, 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:07.000 they've recovered twenty five billion dollars for more than half 0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:11.119 a million clients. It includes cases where insurance companies offered 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:14.000 next to nothing, just hoping to get away with paying 0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:16.920 as little as possible. Morgan and Morgan fought back ended 0:19:17.000 --> 0:19:19.720 up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania, one client was 0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:23.600 awarded twenty six million dollars, which was a staggering forty 0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:26.800 times the amount that the insurance company originally offered that 0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:29.680 original ofw for six hundred and fifty thousand dollars twenty 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:32.280 six million, six hundred fifty thousand dollars. So with more 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:34.680 than one thousand lawyers across the country, they know how 0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:37.199 to deliver for everyday people. If you're injured, you need 0:19:37.240 --> 0:19:40.120 a lawyer, you need somebody to get your back. Check 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:43.280 out for the People dot com, Slash podcast, or dial 0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:48.840 Pound Law Pound five to nine law on your cell phone. 0:19:48.880 --> 0:19:51.040 And remember all law firms are not the same. So 0:19:51.119 --> 0:19:53.720 check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free unless 0:19:53.760 --> 0:20:02.280 they win. Look, the issue of Israel whould still end 0:20:02.359 --> 0:20:06.600 up being a huge player inside, particularly inside Democratic primary politics, 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:07.960 and I do want to make note before I get 0:20:08.000 --> 0:20:11.400 it full fledged in my sort of political briefing of 0:20:11.440 --> 0:20:16.800 the week. There's already an attack ad against a presidential 0:20:16.840 --> 0:20:20.520 candidate twenty twenty eight potential presidential candidate airing in the 0:20:20.520 --> 0:20:25.400 state of New Hampshire. The Pro Palestinian group im EU 0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:30.440 Policy Project has a new ad on TV in New 0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:36.760 Hampshire criticizing Kentucky Governor Andy Bashir. The ad hits Bashir 0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:40.120 for declining to tell Politico in August whether he would 0:20:40.160 --> 0:20:44.080 support blocking certain weapons sales to Israel. This has become 0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:47.240 more and more Democrats have gotten on board this idea 0:20:47.400 --> 0:20:51.920 of essentially blocking the sale of some military equipment and 0:20:52.000 --> 0:20:54.520 some arms to Israel by the US government, and it 0:20:54.600 --> 0:20:57.320 also attacks him for calling Israel a critical ally. In 0:20:57.359 --> 0:20:59.760 a July Vogue interview, for what It's worth, the Bashir 0:21:00.400 --> 0:21:04.200 it was interesting how Bashir is. What Bashir's spokespersonun told Politico, 0:21:05.240 --> 0:21:08.200 President Trump can and should provide aid to address starvation 0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:10.080 and suffering in Gaza, and he should do so in 0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:12.000 a way that does not compromise the safety of the 0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:15.960 Israeli people. I think what this is an interesting sort 0:21:15.960 --> 0:21:20.080 of shot, political shot, if you will. Where I do 0:21:20.119 --> 0:21:22.359 think there are there is a movement on the left 0:21:22.359 --> 0:21:25.560 that wants to make this a litmus test issue inside 0:21:25.640 --> 0:21:30.240 democratic primary politics. So they're going after This is the 0:21:30.280 --> 0:21:34.000 case where Basher's probably already seen as the most they've 0:21:34.000 --> 0:21:37.280 been gone after Shapiro, but Basher and Shapiro probably the 0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:40.720 most pro Israel. They had a had they had a 0:21:40.760 --> 0:21:44.880 way to you know, they had a specific news story 0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:52.000 to cling to on this, and it I don't know 0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:55.160 how salient it will be in a Democratic primary, right, 0:21:55.320 --> 0:21:58.440 there are certain issues and this is where I think 0:21:58.480 --> 0:22:01.080 polling doesn't always tell you this story. There are certain 0:22:01.119 --> 0:22:04.080 issues that will pull a certain way, but it doesn't 0:22:04.119 --> 0:22:08.760 necessarily motivate a voter. And the question is whether a 0:22:08.840 --> 0:22:12.840 stance on Israel is a voting issue for a Democratic 0:22:12.880 --> 0:22:16.520 primary voting for president or is it on the list 0:22:16.560 --> 0:22:19.840 of things you'd like? But it is not a deal breaker, 0:22:21.280 --> 0:22:24.359 And I'm not going to sit here and tell you 0:22:24.440 --> 0:22:26.520 I think I know the answer of which way that leans. 0:22:26.520 --> 0:22:28.359 We're going to learn a little something of Michigan Center 0:22:28.400 --> 0:22:32.320 primary is going to be fascinating. I think on that issue, 0:22:32.320 --> 0:22:36.600 Abdul say Ed clearly calls it genocide of what Israel does. 0:22:36.720 --> 0:22:41.320 Molly mcmarrow has decided to also use that word genocide 0:22:41.880 --> 0:22:44.600 in there. That is not something Hailey Stevens, the establishment 0:22:44.680 --> 0:22:49.600 favorite in that primary, has used. So I think that's 0:22:49.600 --> 0:22:54.000 an open question. How much of a voting issue is 0:22:54.080 --> 0:22:58.960 a Democrats position on Israel? Is it a voting motivator? 0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:03.199 You know, it can be a financial motivator, either to 0:23:03.240 --> 0:23:06.440 give or not to give, etc. But is it an 0:23:06.480 --> 0:23:09.680 activator when it comes to voting? It is it if 0:23:09.680 --> 0:23:12.280 you agree with something on everything else? How many voters 0:23:12.280 --> 0:23:14.800 are out there that are only voting on this issue? 0:23:14.800 --> 0:23:18.040 How many single issue voters on it? You can probably 0:23:18.119 --> 0:23:22.280 tell I'm skeptical that there are many on this for 0:23:22.320 --> 0:23:24.879 what it's worth. But this leads me into sort of 0:23:24.920 --> 0:23:27.439 my briefing of the week, my twenty twenty six briefing 0:23:28.480 --> 0:23:30.320 that I want to do, and the focus I did 0:23:30.440 --> 0:23:33.159 on my substack column, which is up and to be 0:23:33.240 --> 0:23:36.280 read right now and always free on Substack. I am 0:23:36.280 --> 0:23:40.760 not charging a subscription there right now. I view it 0:23:40.760 --> 0:23:43.600 as a way to bring some attention to this podcast 0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:45.960 and vice versa, how the podcast bring some attention to 0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:49.840 the column on this front. But it is we're seeing 0:23:49.880 --> 0:23:54.000 a role reversal between the two parties. Essentially, the Republicans 0:23:54.040 --> 0:23:56.880 are clearing primary fields all over the country, I mean, 0:23:56.920 --> 0:24:01.520 with the large exception of the lone Star state. And 0:24:01.720 --> 0:24:04.160 we'll see what happens in the state of Louisiana, although 0:24:04.200 --> 0:24:07.480 primary hasn't popped up just yet for Bill Cassidy. But 0:24:07.640 --> 0:24:10.879 outside of the John Cornyn mess with Ken Paxton and 0:24:10.880 --> 0:24:13.960 now Wesley Hunt, and that is a mess, don't get 0:24:14.000 --> 0:24:16.600 me wrong. And if you know, if Cornyn is the nominee, 0:24:16.800 --> 0:24:19.639 you take the race off the map. If Ken Paxson 0:24:19.720 --> 0:24:23.280 is the nominee, Democrats have a legitimate shot at winning 0:24:23.280 --> 0:24:27.000 control of the US side. That's how that's what's at 0:24:27.080 --> 0:24:30.080 stake in that primary. Because I don't have a fourth 0:24:30.440 --> 0:24:32.920 I really don't see a viable path for four pickups 0:24:32.920 --> 0:24:36.560 for the Democrats on their best stack. But if Ken 0:24:36.600 --> 0:24:39.359