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Speaker 1: Hello there, Welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast.

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Speaker 1: Full disclosure because you're seeing that, Hey, you're not in

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Speaker 1: your normal studio. No, I am not. I'm on the

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Speaker 1: lovely campus of the University of Southern California, or as

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Speaker 1: my friends in Columbia, South Carolina would say, the USC

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Speaker 1: of the West. I am out here. I got to

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Speaker 1: participate in a meeting of the Big Ten government relations staff.

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Speaker 1: That's right, if you forgot the USC is in the

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Speaker 1: Big Ten, and so we got the host SUSPENI. It

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Speaker 1: was actually quite interesting, quite fun, and I got to

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Speaker 1: give a shout out to the Big Ten more so

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Speaker 1: than the other conferences. Though I'm not saying the other

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Speaker 1: conferences aren't trying to create non athletic sort of collaborative

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Speaker 1: efforts here, but the Big Ten does seem to be

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Speaker 1: more aggressive and better at having non athletic collaboration between

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Speaker 1: the schools and it only you know, it's sort of

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Speaker 1: if you're going to create these super conferences, you know,

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Speaker 1: figure out ways to take advantage. I mean, if you're

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Speaker 1: the ACC. Hey, guys, you got some incredible elite universities

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Speaker 1: from Duke to Miami to Georgia Tech to Stanford to

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Speaker 1: cal to SMU and ton in between. These are this

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Speaker 1: is an opportunity. Bcs are another rising school. Syracuse is great.

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Speaker 1: You know, take a page from how the Big ten

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Speaker 1: is operating. SEC could could benefit in the same way.

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Speaker 1: My understanding the Big twelve is trying to figure out

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Speaker 1: how to how to create some sort of some sort

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Speaker 1: of collaboration. So, as many of you know, I teach

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Speaker 1: adjunct and the scholar in residence at the USC DC campus.

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Speaker 1: So it does afford me the opportunity to come out

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Speaker 1: to La once or twice a year for some of

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Speaker 1: my USC duties. And so that's where we're coming from today.

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Speaker 1: As you know, most Wednesdays, I want to lean more

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Speaker 1: into my campaign roots, my political junkie roots. So I'll

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Speaker 1: have a later in this broadcast the top five list

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Speaker 1: on the top five most likely governor seats to flip

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Speaker 1: that I'm going to. It's both twenty five and twenty six.

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Speaker 1: It will include the two races talking about now, and

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Speaker 1: I yes, I will have a lot more to say

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Speaker 1: about Virginia like I did on Monday there. I think

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Speaker 1: there's definitely a lot more to say there. But I thought, look,

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Speaker 1: I want a few words on what we're dealing with

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Speaker 1: right now. The shutdown is still here. I told you

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Speaker 1: at the beginning of this shutdown debate that perhaps the

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Speaker 1: entity that had the most power to end this shutdown

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Speaker 1: might be the air traffic controllers and TSA agents and will.

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Speaker 1: Already we're seeing the impact of an increasing number of

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Speaker 1: air traffic controllers whose next paycheck is in jeopardy on

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Speaker 1: October fourteenth. Sickouts are already slightly up a bit at

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Speaker 1: a faster pace. I was out here in California, it

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Speaker 1: was a big breaking news alert on all the TVs

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Speaker 1: when I was in the wonderful Annenberg Journalism School newsroom.

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Speaker 1: They have a terrific sort of hub newsroom looks looks

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Speaker 1: like any major TV network that you would walk into.

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Speaker 1: And the big breaking news on the local California news

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Speaker 1: stations was the Burbank Airport was suddenly going to have

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Speaker 1: major flight delays due to air traffic control issues. There's

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Speaker 1: if you go on social media now you know that

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Speaker 1: Nashville is experiencing this. We've seen Newark, which seems to

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Speaker 1: have constant issues with that as well. So while I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to sit here and tell you the you know,

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Speaker 1: I was, I was sort of I'm going to stick

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Speaker 1: to my initial prediction that we wouldn't that this shutdown

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Speaker 1: would likely end by this weekend. But let's just say

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure I have a winning ticket on that

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Speaker 1: bet right now, because I do think both sides have

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Speaker 1: convinced themselves thanks mostly to their you know, the fact

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Speaker 1: that we have a siloed information ecosystem that they're making

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Speaker 1: that somehow they're winning and somehow this is working for

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Speaker 1: them and they're not losing anything on this so until

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Speaker 1: there's real pain, and I do think the air traffic

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Speaker 1: controller issue is something that likely will penetrate both information ecosystems,

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Speaker 1: the left wing one and the right wing one, because

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Speaker 1: everybody travels. And this gets back to my initial rant

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Speaker 1: on how this is a ridiculous feature of the US system.

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Speaker 1: There is no constitutional amendment that says appropriations no longer

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Speaker 1: can be used to pay people if Congress can't meet

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Speaker 1: a deadline. This is no way to run a company,

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Speaker 1: let alone a country. Okay, the fact that we are

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Speaker 1: putting the lives of thousands in danger travel around air

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Speaker 1: let alone being just simply disruptive to their lives, screwing

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Speaker 1: up people's job interviews, screwing up people's emergency visits to

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Speaker 1: sick relatives, maybe they miss a funeral, all because of

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Speaker 1: this political theater. This stuff's important, what they're debating. I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to deny that. But the idea that we

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Speaker 1: simply shut down the government to have these debates is

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Speaker 1: just ridiculous. It shouldn't. This is not about who triggered

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Speaker 1: the shutdown. The shutdown shouldn't be allowed to happen, and

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Speaker 1: it is something that only Congress can easily stop this.

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Speaker 1: They have chosen, both parties have chosen not to allow

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Speaker 1: this to happen. And once again, by the way, the

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Speaker 1: power to open up the government is actually solely in

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Speaker 1: the hands of Republican senators. They waive the filibuster. Government

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Speaker 1: opens the second they finished voting. So do keep that

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Speaker 1: in mind. Now. I think it's arguably potentially a good

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Speaker 1: thing when it comes to I think to fill buster

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Speaker 1: not as it's used today, but the idea of one

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Speaker 1: is still something that that should be a feature of

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Speaker 1: the United States Senate. There's a better way to use it,

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Speaker 1: that's for sure. But again, Republicans could open the government tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: All they got to do is get rid of the philibuster.

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Speaker 1: They have the votes on their own to do it. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: the Democrats also have the power with their with just

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Speaker 1: handing over five vote five more Senate votes to do that.

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Speaker 1: But either way, I'm sorry. When you're disrupting people's lives,

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Speaker 1: you're not winning anything. I do think Democrats have certainly

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Speaker 1: gotten the attention of Republicans on the issue of healthcare.

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Speaker 1: But Republicans knew already that they were vulnerable on healthcare.

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Speaker 1: And you know it's possible. Here's the iordy to this.

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Speaker 1: If if, if this shut down a complic gives the

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Speaker 1: Democrats the ability, gives the Republicans the ability to say, oh,

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Speaker 1: they fixed healthcare in this compromise. The irony is that

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Speaker 1: the Democrats may have taken away one of their best

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Speaker 1: issues to use in the midterms. But I digress. But

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Speaker 1: before I get to a campaign update, I do think

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Speaker 1: I've been talked about the potential final end. I'm taping

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Speaker 1: on October seventh, so it seemed to be a good

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Speaker 1: time to check in on There's a lot of polling

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Speaker 1: that's been out there on Israel, not just in the

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Speaker 1: United States, but it's some polling in Israel, and it's

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Speaker 1: the polling in Israel, and I think a lot of

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Speaker 1: people haven't seen or heard about, so I thought I

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Speaker 1: would get there discuss a little bit of the polling

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Speaker 1: on how Israel has lost it's standing in the United

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Speaker 1: States and it's really starting Jewey roade across the board.

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Speaker 1: It certainly Israel still has more support on the right

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Speaker 1: than the left in this country, but it is eroding

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Speaker 1: generally more. It's really bb Well unpopularity is growing. He's

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Speaker 1: never been a popular guy here, but his unpopularity is growing.

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Speaker 1: But what's striking is how unpopular he is in the

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Speaker 1: state of Israel. And I will get to that, but

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Speaker 1: I do think it's you know, what have we learned

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Speaker 1: about Israel over the last two years. What's been the

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Speaker 1: sort of fallout from all of this? And I think

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Speaker 1: what's interesting is on the US relationship with Israel. I

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Speaker 1: want to associate myself with some comments that Ian bremer

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Speaker 1: Maide in his newsletter because I thought it was really smart.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's an interesting conundrum that Israel's in right now.

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Speaker 1: Israel under BB's leadership has never looked as powerful or

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Speaker 1: as alone. So many Western governments have embraced the idea

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Speaker 1: of Palestinian statehood, and there's in some ways, Israel has

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Speaker 1: one friend, the United States. That's it. It makes the

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Speaker 1: relationship with the United States that much more important to

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Speaker 1: any current or future prime minister of Israel. And it

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Speaker 1: gives the United States more leverage and arguably more global

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Speaker 1: responsibility for managing, if you will, or influencing or however

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Speaker 1: you want to put it, or the belief that they

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Speaker 1: have influence over Israel. But the is the Israeli government

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Speaker 1: has never been more tied and more in need of

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Speaker 1: US support and more lena. They have no other allies

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Speaker 1: like the United States nowhere even close. Not saying they

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Speaker 1: don't have other friends out there, but it's only due

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Speaker 1: to the United States that they have some Sunni Arab

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Speaker 1: states that are friends. But it's sort of like their

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Speaker 1: friends because of the United States. Whether they'd be friends

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Speaker 1: with Israel on their own as a whole other story.

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Speaker 1: But I thought that was an interesting piece of analysis

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Speaker 1: by In. You know, I like to frequently bring onto

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Speaker 1: the podcast as my international expert, one of the just

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Speaker 1: smarter global political scientists that are out there. But it's

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Speaker 1: true because as a military power, Israel now is the

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Speaker 1: power of the there's no there's no there's no, there's

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Speaker 1: no close second. It's Israel and everybody else. So they

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Speaker 1: have power. They're feared in the Middle East, and yet

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Speaker 1: it's out of fear, there's not there's less respect around

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Speaker 1: the world because of BB's leadership too. Anyway, let me

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Speaker 1: get into some of the polling, because I think some

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Speaker 1: of this is interesting and worth taking a look at.

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Speaker 1: So look, there's still giant this is first. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: about America's views of Israel in general, big part of

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Speaker 1: some split seventy percent. This is a Pew poll by

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Speaker 1: the way that I'm citing Q came out last week,

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Speaker 1: and there's this all this polling on on this side.

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Speaker 1: This is just the Americans. The pole of Israeli citizens

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Speaker 1: is by the Israeli Democracy Institute. Was conducted by the way,

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Speaker 1: in Arabic and in Hebrew, because they also mean there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of Israeli Arabs in the is Israeli population

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Speaker 1: as well. It was a large minority in the State

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Speaker 1: of Israel. But let me start with the US public opinion.

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Speaker 1: So first, the sort of predictable the Partisans split seventy

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Speaker 1: percent of Democrats or Democratic leaning independents view the Palestinian

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Speaker 1: people favorably. Just thirty seven percent of Republicans or Republican

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Speaker 1: leaners all those same views. The Israeli government is viewed

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Speaker 1: positively by fifty five percent of Republicans. Only eighteen percent

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Speaker 1: of Democrats view the Israeli government positively. On the Israeli people,

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Speaker 1: Democrats are evenly divided forty eight to forty eight favorable

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Speaker 1: unfavorable on the Israeli people. Republicans a much higher favorable

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Speaker 1: view of the Israeli people sixty seven percent. Eighty two

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Speaker 1: percent of Republicans and fifty six percent of Democrats view

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Speaker 1: the Palestinian authority unfavorably. So while there are fewer Democrats

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Speaker 1: that view An unfavorable, majorities of both parties view the

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Speaker 1: Palestinian authority unfavorably, and eight and ten Republicans and eight

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Speaker 1: and ten Democrats view AMAS unfavorably. But what's also interesting

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Speaker 1: is there is growing skepticism of Israel's operation in Gaza

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Speaker 1: over time. Thirty nine percent now say Israel has gone

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Speaker 1: too far in its military operation against Hamas. That's up

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Speaker 1: from thirty one percent at this same time in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four, and it was twenty seven percent in late

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, just after Hamas took those hostages on

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Speaker 1: October seven. And overall the Israeli government, which really is

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Speaker 1: bbe right, but the Israeli government, fifty nine percent of

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Speaker 1: America of Americans hold an unfavorable view of the Israeli government.

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Speaker 1: That is up from fifty one percent of last year. Look,

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Speaker 1: you can't get to fifty nine percent of Americans on

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Speaker 1: anything without having essentially pieces of all three of America's

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Speaker 1: sort of political tribes right, the left, center, and right.

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Speaker 1: And that is definitely the case there. Now let me

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Speaker 1: move to what we learned about the Israeli people, because

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Speaker 1: I think some of these numbers will surprise people, and

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Speaker 1: I think it's I say this as an American Jew,

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Speaker 1: you know we in some cases, I think folks that

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Speaker 1: are not familiar, you know, with there's plenty of diversity

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Speaker 1: of thought inside the American Jewish community, plenty of diversity

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Speaker 1: of thought among American Jews. On bb the individual or

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Speaker 1: the Israeli government of the Palestinian people, that nuance gets lost,

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Speaker 1: frankly in a lot of the conversation that takes place online,

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Speaker 1: which is as an American jew very frustrating to many

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Speaker 1: of us. Many of us and look, we disagree amongst ourselves.

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Speaker 1: We have plenty of debates in the Jewish community ourselves,

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Speaker 1: but we're pretty good at debating. We like debating, I

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Speaker 1: will tell you that. But this to me, I think

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Speaker 1: won't surprise American Jews, but this will surprise people who

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Speaker 1: are not familiar as familiar. Sixty six percent of Israelis

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Speaker 1: say it's time to end the war in Gaza. Sixty

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Speaker 1: six percent of Israelis folks. Okay, that is up thirteen

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Speaker 1: points from a year ago at this time, and another

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Speaker 1: the same essentially sixty six percent two thirds of the

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Speaker 1: country think Prime Minister Beating that Yahoo should take responsibility

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Speaker 1: for the security failures that led to the October seventh

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Speaker 1: attacks and resign. Okay, Now to split up that number

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Speaker 1: just so you know, it's about forty five percent who

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Speaker 1: believed he should resign immediately. Now there's a whole chunk

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Speaker 1: of Israelis that think that that BB. You know, it

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Speaker 1: was a security failure and he should take responsibility for this.

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Speaker 1: He's never taken responsibility for the lack of smart security

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Speaker 1: around October seventh. And then there's another fifteen percent who

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Speaker 1: believed that he should resign after the war is over,

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Speaker 1: finish the military operation and then resign. But it's pretty

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Speaker 1: clear two thirds sixty basically sixty six percent of the

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Speaker 1: population thing it is time for BB to leave the stage.

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Speaker 1: He's got to go. And I think it's I think

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Speaker 1: there is a belief and this happens in any wartime situation.

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Speaker 1: You know, this is not unique to Israel. Zelenski is

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Speaker 1: going to be facing the same thing. There's going to

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Speaker 1: be fatigue the population. There's going to be a belief

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Speaker 1: the population that in some ways there's going to be

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Speaker 1: too much scar tissue with that leader, and they're never

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Speaker 1: you know, and frankly, they may be so warped that

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Speaker 1: they see everything as something they got to go to

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Speaker 1: war to. And so just in general, you'll see there'll

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Speaker 1: be a similar situation in Ukraine where there'll be people

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Speaker 1: think it's time Brazilenski to go now. They may say

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Speaker 1: let's wait till after the war, don't change horses in

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Speaker 1: midstream type of mindset, which is something that many a

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Speaker 1: democracy goes through. But I just think in general, I

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Speaker 1: think it's I know this, I knew he was more

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Speaker 1: unpopular than popular in Israel. I was surprised that the

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Speaker 1: number would would be that high. This is worth in

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Speaker 1: a question again of the Israeli public. A majority of

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Speaker 1: the public believes that israel standing in the international arena

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Speaker 1: is worse today than it was before October seventh. Seventy

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Speaker 1: three percent of the overall sample believes this. And this

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Speaker 1: is across the board. Among Israeli Jews it's seventy six percent,

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Speaker 1: and among Israeli Arabs it is sixty percent. This is

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Speaker 1: also the view of the majority of each of the

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Speaker 1: three political camps within Israel. Those on the left, ninety

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Speaker 1: five percent of those in the Israeli left believe Israel's

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Speaker 1: international standing is worse today, eighty seven percent in the

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Speaker 1: political center, and even sixty nine percent in the political right.

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Speaker 1: And what is the main goal of this war right,

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Speaker 1: There's been, frankly a debate inside Israel what should the goal?

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Speaker 1: Is the goal to get all the hostages home or

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Speaker 1: is the goal to eradicate Hamas? Well. We've heard what

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Speaker 1: Biebe says, and certainly what his right wing government says.

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Speaker 1: They want to make it about Hamas, but that is

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Speaker 1: not where a majority of the Israeli public is sixty

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Speaker 1: five percent of the Israeli public believe the main goal

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Speaker 1: of the war in Godza today should only be bringing

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Speaker 1: the hostages home, hard stop, hard stop. And the share,

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Speaker 1: by the way of people that old those views has

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Speaker 1: actually grown since January of twenty twenty four among both

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Speaker 1: Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs. And it's really not surprising.

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Speaker 1: There's fatigue, there's concern that they're frankly never going to

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Speaker 1: get home in time on that front. But it's I

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Speaker 1: just think here on this October seventh, we should reflect,

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Speaker 1: let's be hopeful that this is that we are potentially

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Speaker 1: at the end here. And you know, for all the

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Speaker 1: grief everybody, this is a case where Donald I don't

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Speaker 1: know if if another American president could be putting BB

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Speaker 1: in his place on this a little bit. This is

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Speaker 1: a case where Trump's using his sort of unique ability

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Speaker 1: to bully for good. In a certain sense, this is

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Speaker 1: not very good politics in general, it's not very good

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Speaker 1: diplomacy in general. But sometimes you know, BB and Trump

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Speaker 1: are very similar guys. They're clinging to power to avoid accountability, right,

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Speaker 1: They share a lot in common. They have gotten power

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Speaker 1: without having a majority support, which is easier to explain

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Speaker 1: in a parliamentary system a little harder to explain in

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Speaker 1: our system. The two of them do have a lot

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Speaker 1: in common, but it also means Trump knows how to

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Speaker 1: Trump knows how to bully BB because he knows who

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Speaker 1: BB is. So at this point, let's just hope we

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Speaker 1: can turn the page, stop the killing, start the rebuilding,

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Speaker 1: and see if the page came truly get turned. In

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Speaker 1: the Middle East, there's a reason results matter more than promises,

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Speaker 1: just like there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's

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Speaker 1: largest injury law firm. For the last thirty five years,

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Speaker 1: they've recovered twenty five billion dollars for more than half

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Speaker 1: a million clients. It includes cases where insurance companies offered

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Speaker 1: next to nothing, just hoping to get away with paying

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Speaker 1: as little as possible. Morgan and Morgan fought back ended

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Speaker 1: up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania, one client was

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Speaker 1: awarded twenty six million dollars, which was a staggering forty

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Speaker 1: times the amount that the insurance company originally offered that

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Speaker 1: original ofw for six hundred and fifty thousand dollars twenty

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Speaker 1: six million, six hundred fifty thousand dollars. So with more

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Speaker 1: than one thousand lawyers across the country, they know how

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Speaker 1: to deliver for everyday people. If you're injured, you need

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Speaker 1: a lawyer, you need somebody to get your back. Check

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Speaker 1: out for the People dot com, Slash podcast, or dial

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Speaker 1: Pound Law Pound five to nine law on your cell phone.

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Speaker 1: And remember all law firms are not the same. So

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Speaker 1: check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free unless

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Speaker 1: they win. Look, the issue of Israel whould still end

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Speaker 1: up being a huge player inside, particularly inside Democratic primary politics,

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Speaker 1: and I do want to make note before I get

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Speaker 1: it full fledged in my sort of political briefing of

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Speaker 1: the week. There's already an attack ad against a presidential

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Speaker 1: candidate twenty twenty eight potential presidential candidate airing in the

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Speaker 1: state of New Hampshire. The Pro Palestinian group im EU

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Speaker 1: Policy Project has a new ad on TV in New

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Speaker 1: Hampshire criticizing Kentucky Governor Andy Bashir. The ad hits Bashir

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Speaker 1: for declining to tell Politico in August whether he would

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Speaker 1: support blocking certain weapons sales to Israel. This has become

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Speaker 1: more and more Democrats have gotten on board this idea

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Speaker 1: of essentially blocking the sale of some military equipment and

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Speaker 1: some arms to Israel by the US government, and it

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Speaker 1: also attacks him for calling Israel a critical ally. In

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Speaker 1: a July Vogue interview, for what It's worth, the Bashir

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Speaker 1: it was interesting how Bashir is. What Bashir's spokespersonun told Politico,

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Speaker 1: President Trump can and should provide aid to address starvation

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Speaker 1: and suffering in Gaza, and he should do so in

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Speaker 1: a way that does not compromise the safety of the

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Speaker 1: Israeli people. I think what this is an interesting sort

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Speaker 1: of shot, political shot, if you will. Where I do

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Speaker 1: think there are there is a movement on the left

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Speaker 1: that wants to make this a litmus test issue inside

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Speaker 1: democratic primary politics. So they're going after This is the

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Speaker 1: case where Basher's probably already seen as the most they've

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Speaker 1: been gone after Shapiro, but Basher and Shapiro probably the

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Speaker 1: most pro Israel. They had a had they had a

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Speaker 1: way to you know, they had a specific news story

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Speaker 1: to cling to on this, and it I don't know

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Speaker 1: how salient it will be in a Democratic primary, right,

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Speaker 1: there are certain issues and this is where I think

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Speaker 1: polling doesn't always tell you this story. There are certain

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Speaker 1: issues that will pull a certain way, but it doesn't

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Speaker 1: necessarily motivate a voter. And the question is whether a

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Speaker 1: stance on Israel is a voting issue for a Democratic

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Speaker 1: primary voting for president or is it on the list

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Speaker 1: of things you'd like? But it is not a deal breaker,

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Speaker 1: And I'm not going to sit here and tell you

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Speaker 1: I think I know the answer of which way that leans.

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Speaker 1: We're going to learn a little something of Michigan Center

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Speaker 1: primary is going to be fascinating. I think on that issue,

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Speaker 1: Abdul say Ed clearly calls it genocide of what Israel does.

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Speaker 1: Molly mcmarrow has decided to also use that word genocide

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Speaker 1: in there. That is not something Hailey Stevens, the establishment

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Speaker 1: favorite in that primary, has used. So I think that's

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Speaker 1: an open question. How much of a voting issue is

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Speaker 1: a Democrats position on Israel? Is it a voting motivator?

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Speaker 1: You know, it can be a financial motivator, either to

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Speaker 1: give or not to give, etc. But is it an

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Speaker 1: activator when it comes to voting? It is it if

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Speaker 1: you agree with something on everything else? How many voters

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Speaker 1: are out there that are only voting on this issue?

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Speaker 1: How many single issue voters on it? You can probably

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Speaker 1: tell I'm skeptical that there are many on this for

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Speaker 1: what it's worth. But this leads me into sort of

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Speaker 1: my briefing of the week, my twenty twenty six briefing

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Speaker 1: that I want to do, and the focus I did

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Speaker 1: on my substack column, which is up and to be

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Speaker 1: read right now and always free on Substack. I am

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Speaker 1: not charging a subscription there right now. I view it

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Speaker 1: as a way to bring some attention to this podcast

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Speaker 1: and vice versa, how the podcast bring some attention to

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Speaker 1: the column on this front. But it is we're seeing

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Speaker 1: a role reversal between the two parties. Essentially, the Republicans

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Speaker 1: are clearing primary fields all over the country, I mean,

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Speaker 1: with the large exception of the lone Star state. And

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Speaker 1: we'll see what happens in the state of Louisiana, although

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Speaker 1: primary hasn't popped up just yet for Bill Cassidy. But

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Speaker 1: outside of the John Cornyn mess with Ken Paxton and

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Speaker 1: now Wesley Hunt, and that is a mess, don't get

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Speaker 1: me wrong. And if you know, if Cornyn is the nominee,

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Speaker 1: you take the race off the map. If Ken Paxson

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Speaker 1: is the nominee, Democrats have a legitimate shot at winning

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Speaker 1: control of the US side. That's how that's what's at

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Speaker 1: stake in that primary. Because I don't have a fourth

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Speaker 1: I really don't see a viable path for four pickups

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Speaker 1: for the Democrats on their best stack. But if Ken

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Speaker 1: Paxson's a Republican nominee in Texas, then there's a viable

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Speaker 1: path for four. Suddenly you can see it. You know,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, Maine, you know one, you know, one of

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Speaker 1: those Midwestern states maybe right, you know with Ohio shared Brown,

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Speaker 1: maybe in Iowa open seat. What's going on in Nebraska, Alaska? Okay,

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Speaker 1: I could, I could. You could see one of those

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Speaker 1: coming in, right, It's hard to see two of those

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Speaker 1: coming in, but I could see one of those coming in.

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Speaker 1: Then you throw in Texas and you start that pot.

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Speaker 1: But overall, in general, there's no primary for the open

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Speaker 1: seat in Iowa. Republicans have successfully rallied everybody around Ashley Henson.

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Speaker 1: You know, we know in twenty twenty two, this would

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Speaker 1: have been there'd have been a mega candidate, a McConnell candidate,

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Speaker 1: all sorts of colorful characters jumping into that race in Iowa.

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Speaker 1: In Michigan, Mike Rodgers had to deal with the primary

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Speaker 1: last time, there is no primary. This time, primaries were

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Speaker 1: a problem in the Republican side, arguably cost them a

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Speaker 1: chance at a governor's at a governor's seat, certainly made

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Speaker 1: the Senate seat a bit harder. This time, they got

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Speaker 1: Mike Rogers without having a primary. Meanwhile, there's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a hugely messy and potentially nasty primary on the Democratic side.

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Speaker 1: On that front, they don't have a primary in North Carolina.

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Speaker 1: Now they do in Georgia, and we'll see if they

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Speaker 1: end up with a primary in New Hampshire. I think

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Speaker 1: if they get and Trump probably leans on Scott Brown successfully.

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Speaker 1: And that's really what Republicans have done is John Thune

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Speaker 1: is working hand in hand with the White House and

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Speaker 1: they're doing their best to essentially agree on tann It's

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Speaker 1: McConnell kind of tried that, but there was the disaster

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Speaker 1: of herschel Walker, right, that was just a debacle where

431
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 1: everybody knew that was a bad idea, but he chose

432
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 1: to give the president that And well, that's why there

433
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:30,679
Speaker 1: are two Democratic senators in the state of Georgia. But

434
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 1: it is and in fact, Dune, according to an article

435
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,679
Speaker 1: on Political Early this Week, has done has made a

436
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 1: huge effort and has successfully convinced the White House, don't

437
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 1: harass Susan Tollins, don't find some maga person to go

438
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,719
Speaker 1: primary her. And she is the only person that can

439
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: win that Senate seat if it's winnable, and I don't

440
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:53,639
Speaker 1: know if it is this time, not going to have

441
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 1: a rule out Susan Tollins's ability to win that race,

442
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 1: but she does have the highest unfavorable rating she's ever

443
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,920
Speaker 1: had going into it, going into one of these re elections.

444
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 1: But this, you know, contrasts that, right this was the

445
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 1: hallmark of the Democrats. Chuck Schumer was extraordinarily and Harry

446
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 1: Reid all throughout sort of starting in late Obama years,

447
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 1: going through of avoiding messy ideological primary fights, figuring out

448
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 1: how to you know, settle on somebody early, recruit them

449
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 1: and clear the primary field. John Hickenlooper got a Senate

450
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 1: seat this way, and King got a Senate seat this way.

451
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 1: You know, Steve Bullock lost a Senate seat, but he,

452
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 1: you know, it was able to have a clear primary

453
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: field when he chose to run. Look, they got that

454
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 1: in shared brown right now, but he still actually is

455
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:45,399
Speaker 1: facing a primary. It looks like there will won't be

456
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: a significant primary in the New Hampshire open seat, which

457
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 1: is a small win there, but that's going to be

458
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 1: a tough race either way. And certainly Roy Cooper has

459
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,439
Speaker 1: has is sort of the model of you know, they

460
00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:59,439
Speaker 1: just not many Roy Hooper's out there, but look at

461
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:02,120
Speaker 1: the State of Man. You know, it looks like they've

462
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 1: got the governor to run, but you've got all these

463
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,200
Speaker 1: other candidates that keep jumping in and feel as if

464
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 1: and it's sort of understandable. I think you have a

465
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 1: you have a pent up set of you have a

466
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 1: pent up party, right, a party that's been told to

467
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,439
Speaker 1: suck it up and support Hillary Clinton, suck it up

468
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 1: and support Joe Biden, suck it up and support Kamala

469
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 1: Harris without without going through a primary process. So I

470
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,199
Speaker 1: do think there's fatigue with being told what to do

471
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 1: by an establishment that doesn't seem to have many wins

472
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: anymore to tout. And but look, as we saw the

473
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 1: Republican side, a primary goes the wrong way, the ideology

474
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 1: gets ugly. Somebody may win but be totally bruised. Somebody

475
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 1: may win but despite some awful opposition research that surfaces,

476
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 1: and while they can survive the primary, they can't survive

477
00:28:55,280 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 1: the general. That's what primaries. You know, primaries. Primaries increase

478
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: the unexpected, right, they increase the unintended when you don't

479
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 1: have primaries. Now, look, I could argue primaries could be

480
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: healthy to the party. Democrats need to have a good

481
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 1: fight to figure out their direction because I think they

482
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 1: don't know. They're pretty paralyzed right now, and where's to go.

483
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 1: There's a fear there's a divide between progressives who think, hey,

484
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 1: emulate the Mega movement a little bit here right. You know,

485
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 1: a lot of the Establishment of Republicans said MAGA is

486
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 1: a loser. It turns out Mega has given Republicans more

487
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 1: power than they've gotten in a generation. And I think

488
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 1: there are a lot of progressives who say, what's wrong

489
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: with emulating a model like that. Let's paint in brighter colors,

490
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: let's have more conviction, let's be bolder and lean out there.

491
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 1: I don't think that's where the swing voter is right,

492
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 1: and I've made the argument you've got the adult in

493
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 1: the room voter that I do think is leaned to

494
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: the left over the last in the Trump era, I

495
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 1: think the adult in the room voter Lates, But I

496
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 1: think that that has been an important constituent. See it's

497
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 1: not a huge constituency, and it doesn't have much of

498
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 1: a constituency in a primary. These are mostly general election voters.

499
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 1: But I bring up the adult in the room party

500
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 1: when it comes to the situation in Virginia right now.

501
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 1: And let's be honest. If this, if these techs had

502
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 1: surfaced on J. Jones, the attorney general nominee for the Democrats,

503
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 1: a month ago, he'd be out already because they would

504
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 1: have had time to replace him as the nominee. It

505
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 1: really appears that the only reason they're not doing this

506
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 1: is they don't want to. They don't want to lose

507
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 1: the race. There's got to be other ways around this,

508
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 1: right The one I've come up with, and why somebody

509
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 1: hasn't suggested, is if you convince him that if he

510
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 1: if he gets elected, he agrees to resign, he should

511
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 1: not hold an office, a law enforcement position. If he

512
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 1: had been a deputy AG as an appointee or a

513
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 1: deputy US Attorney, an a DA or something, and that

514
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 1: he'd have been fired. No government, uh legal entity would

515
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 1: want that. Those text message you know, have somebody prosecuting

516
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 1: the case, who has whose text messages saying, you know,

517
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 1: making threats like that to public officials. You just you

518
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 1: just couldn't do it. It would it would get rid of

519
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 1: you know, it would cost you credibility in any case

520
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 1: that person would prosecute. So it's it's it looks like

521
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 1: and I get it right. Trump never apologizes, never surrenders.

522
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: And I know that there's some that think, hey, you know, well,

523
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 1: if you know they do it, why can't we do it?

524
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 1: But the honorable thing is to agree that if he

525
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 1: if you're if he's elected, he'll resign and then, according

526
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 1: to the the Virginia Constitution, the General Assembly would elect

527
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 1: the would essentially elect the replacement on this. And look,

528
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 1: if you want to just play partisan politics here, it's

529
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 1: most likely a general Assembly is going to be democratic.

530
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 1: We'll see what the final results are. But doing this

531
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 1: dance of condemning what he said but agreeing to vote

532
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 1: for him and allow, you know, I think the Democrats

533
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 1: need to be conducting what I refer to as civil

534
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 1: war surgery, where sometimes you had to cut off a

535
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 1: limb to save the body. There's a month. Do I

536
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 1: think this costs Abigail's Fanburg or the race. I do

537
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: not this cost her three or four points? Maybe could

538
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 1: it cost them the LG race? Good? Right, it's it

539
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 1: feels like this is that that there are that this

540
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 1: is sort of the what Trump has done. This is

541
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 1: sort of everybody's got Trump brain. And right, just because

542
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 1: Trump survives these things doesn't mean it's you know, it's

543
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 1: the right thing to do. And again I just sort

544
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 1: of asked the question. The results will tell me, the

545
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 1: voters will tell us the answer to this. But like

546
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: I said, I believe that that that Democrats have benefited

547
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 1: being the adult in the room. Party. You don't behave

548
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 1: as the adult in the room on this on this

549
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 1: part of the conversation. What do you lose long term?

550
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 1: You know, maybe maybe you end up maybe rallying around

551
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 1: the troops here, you know, and you get them elected.

552
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 1: But what if you do win with him? Zach got

553
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 1: to call him to question all of his moves. Is

554
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 1: he a paralyzed office holder? As it is? You know,

555
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 1: I it is. This is never going to go away

556
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 1: with him, you know, And it wasn't. I tell you

557
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: what sort of really bothers me about this is it's

558
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:15,840
Speaker 1: not the It's sort of like the text themselves were Jesus,

559
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 1: what what do you? Why are you putting this in writing?

560
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 1: But it was the second part of the story where

561
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 1: the lawmaker was like, what are you saying this for?

562
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 1: And he sort of doubled down on it in a

563
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 1: verbal conversation. Right, It was more it wasn't you know

564
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: you can? You can? You could forgive somebody in a

565
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 1: heat of the moment, right, you know, nobody wants their

566
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 1: And if every thought that went through all of our

567
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 1: heads were broadcaster or or verbalized, and by the way,

568
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:50,399
Speaker 1: these neurotransplants right could start doing that, I don't think

569
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 1: any of us would want that public. Okay, everybody has

570
00:34:55,000 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: a stray thought, even if it's a hypothetical whatever. Okay,

571
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 1: but good grief, we're not George orwell. Right, So there's

572
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 1: a there's certainly lines here, but the fact that wasn't

573
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:12,359
Speaker 1: heat of the moment. And again it's the office he's

574
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 1: running for, turning genmor right, that's a law enforcement office.

575
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 1: So anyway, I think the Democrats are playing with some

576
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 1: political fire here, and they'd probably be in a better

577
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 1: place if they were calling for his immediate resignation upon election.

578
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:31,799
Speaker 1: You know, that could be the compromise since it's too

579
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:44,439
Speaker 1: late to get his name off the ballot. All right.

580
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 1: I don't know about you, but it's like this entire

581
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 1: I mean, that was just outrage, and I think I

582
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 1: shared this story about the source of mind that sort

583
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 1: of what drove them away from leaving the r n

584
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:59,280
Speaker 1: C when they got got that letter that this panicked

585
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 1: woman said, my social Security check doesn't come for another week?

586
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 1: Is it okay? If I wait? You know, and if

587
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:10,799
Speaker 1: you think about it, how these the way fundraise, the

588
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 1: way this online fundraising world works, which again I think,

589
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 1: as Adam has put it, feels like glorified you know,

590
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 1: targeting of just you know, abusing the elderly here. But

591
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 1: in some ways it's it's it's the incentive structure of

592
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 1: our information ecosystem in general. Right, You've got to have

593
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 1: these sort of blaring, sort of urgent, urgent headlines to

594
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 1: grab the attention of readers. It sort of you know,

595
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 1: makes everything seem as if it's a it's you know,

596
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: you know, we started with cable news making everything breaking news, right,

597
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 1: and eventually if everything's breaking news, then what's just news? Right?

598
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 1: You know, what's just it? And it's in some ways

599
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 1: This is sort of what we've done to political fundraising,

600
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 1: what we've done to news consumption. How the algorithms prioritize

601
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 1: again the incentives, right, it prioritizes this, and it really

602
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 1: has warped our brains. Ten years of this kind of

603
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 1: of this kind of nonsense is I think, you know,

604
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 1: helps explain why we're in the why we're in the

605
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 1: uncomfortable position we're in when it comes to our information ecosystem.

606
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 1: All right, it is Wednesday. It's my top five, top five,

607
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 1: top top. Last week was my top five Senate seats

608
00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 1: for the month of most likely to flip. Well, today

609
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 1: I'm going to do my top five governor seats most

610
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:45,319
Speaker 1: likely to flip between now and November of twenty twenty six.

611
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 1: Why do I say between now and November of twenty

612
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 1: twenty six, because we have two governor's races coming up

613
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 1: this November, one in Virginia and one in New Jersey,

614
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 1: and well one of them is in my top five list.

615
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 1: And what it is, it's most likely to change parties. Right,

616
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 1: This is why it's doesn't mean I'm saying it's it's

617
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 1: going to be the closest race, the most top but

618
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,359
Speaker 1: it's most likely. So the number one seat most likely

619
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 1: to change parties, well, right now, it's Virginia, right, it's

620
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:13,440
Speaker 1: a Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin Abigail Spamberger's got anywhere from

621
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 1: an eight to twelve point lead depending on the polls.

622
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 1: We haven't had any good polling since the controversy involving

623
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:25,360
Speaker 1: the ag nominee and those horrific texts that were made public.

624
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 1: I would imagine it only has a small if any.

625
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,399
Speaker 1: I do feel like it is not. We'll see, all right,

626
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think it does if they they

627
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 1: sort of continue this dance and allow it to sort

628
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 1: of dominate the next three or four weeks. It could

629
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 1: cost for a couple of points, but I don't think

630
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 1: it costs he a race. So I think she's definitely

631
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:50,360
Speaker 1: number one. It's the number one most likely to flip

632
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 1: to change parties. Again, that's how my top five works.

633
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:56,839
Speaker 1: So the next four and I will tell you, look,

634
00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 1: New Jersey is going to be close. I sort of

635
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 1: refer to New Jersey. It's sort of like the Miami

636
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 1: Florida state game. I knew that was going to get

637
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 1: close at the end, no matter what happened, because the

638
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 1: Miami Florida State games. They always do if it is

639
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:19,360
Speaker 1: it is a rivalry games, so they always both teams

640
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 1: have had a history of coming back from keep deficits

641
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,840
Speaker 1: and making games close at the end. And so I

642
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:29,720
Speaker 1: put New Jersey, I put Chittarelli in there as Florida State.

643
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 1: There's it's not a remote chance that he wins. There's

644
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 1: a pretty good chance. And in fact, if you created

645
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 1: a point spread and the points spread were three with

646
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:44,240
Speaker 1: Mikey Cheryl, you know, basically being a three point favorite,

647
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 1: I'd take the underdog. I think this is going to

648
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 1: be a one or two point race. I think got

649
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 1: election night, we're waiting a little bit. It's not something

650
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 1: that gets called right away. We're going to say, have

651
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 1: to see a lot of data, all but various vote

652
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 1: counting entities, and we'll do that. So I think it's

653
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 1: going to be awfully close on that front. But it's

654
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 1: not cracking my top five just yet. And and and

655
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 1: but it's right there. You could say it's it's it's six.

656
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:12,799
Speaker 1: It's really close. So it's gonna be a lot of

657
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 1: competitive governors races. That's really what it means. But I

658
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 1: think when you slotted in, you know, and I look

659
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,439
Speaker 1: at it as sort of where I think the race

660
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 1: will be, not necessarily where the race is at, and

661
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 1: think when it's slotted in. So I still make sure

662
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 1: all this slight favored, because I do think the overall

663
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: political environment favors Democrats right now because of the unpopularity

664
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 1: of the president. And I think that's probably the difference

665
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 1: between winning and losing in a state like New Jersey

666
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:44,360
Speaker 1: right now. But we'll say, certainly going to be closer

667
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 1: than Virginia, that's for sure. But number two right there

668
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,360
Speaker 1: for me is Kansas. Right you have Laura Kelly is

669
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 1: not running again. She's term limited. The Democratic Democratic governor

670
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 1: of Kansas. Kansas is a Here's a couple of rules

671
00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 1: on governors, Okay. Number one, The hardest thing to do

672
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:04,399
Speaker 1: is to deny a sitting governor a second term. It

673
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 1: is harder than denying a senator, a second term House

674
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 1: member of second term, a president a second term. Defeeding

675
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 1: and incumbent governor is very difficult. It's a little bit

676
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 1: easier when you're trying to when you're trying to if

677
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 1: they're running for a third or a fourth term. Some

678
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 1: states allow it, some don't. Kansas, it is just two

679
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 1: and that's it. They have a two term limit there.

680
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 1: And Kansas has shown a pattern I mean literally was

681
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 1: you had eight years of Kathleen Sibilius and you had

682
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:36,360
Speaker 1: eight years of Republican governor and eight years of Lord Kelly.

683
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:39,480
Speaker 1: So there's a bit of a pattern there. So you

684
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 1: got to make the Republicans a favor, and I think

685
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 1: overall is sort of the same way. For you know,

686
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 1: Virginia has been sitting in this number one slot. If

687
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 1: I had been doing it for the last year, it

688
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 1: had been sitting there the whole time. Because again with

689
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 1: an open governor's race, it is open seat races that

690
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:58,760
Speaker 1: are most likely to flip party than sitting governors. Okay,

691
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 1: defeating And here's a hint, there's not going to be

692
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,840
Speaker 1: a single race in my top five that features a

693
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 1: sitting government. I'll get to I think it's the most

694
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 1: vulnerable sitting governor in the country after I do my

695
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 1: top five list. So number one is Virginia, Number two

696
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:19,919
Speaker 1: is Kansas. Number three and four could easily be could

697
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 1: easily flip. And since I was just at the Big

698
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 1: ten government relations, it means they're both Big ten states

699
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 1: and it actually is this state or this state? Is

700
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:30,239
Speaker 1: it this state or is this state? Do you see

701
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 1: what I'm doing here? Anyway, it's the hand thing. Michigan Wisconsin.

702
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:38,720
Speaker 1: I put Wisconsin number three, Michigan number four. You told

703
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:41,439
Speaker 1: me it should be Michigan number three, Wisconsin number four.

704
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 1: You know, I probably should. You know, I could argue

705
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 1: Michigan three because of the three way race, you know,

706
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:51,719
Speaker 1: if you know doug In, certainly I think it. I

707
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:54,279
Speaker 1: think the path were a Republican for John James is

708
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:58,799
Speaker 1: probably slightly easier in Michigan than Wisconsin. So Michigan, you

709
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 1: could say, is three A and and Wisconsin would be

710
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 1: just below that. So as I'm talking this out, I'm

711
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:08,800
Speaker 1: realizing it's Michigan that's in the third slot. But it's

712
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 1: because of that three way race with the independent dug In.

713
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:14,799
Speaker 1: It's it's the math. It may simply become a math

714
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 1: problem for Democrats unless Dougan wins right, or unless Duggan

715
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 1: gets you know, or or he fades hard right. But

716
00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:25,400
Speaker 1: the problem is, if he's down as a five to

717
00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:27,920
Speaker 1: ten percent candidate, he most likely takes more from the

718
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 1: Democrat than the Republicans. So I think you have to

719
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:34,760
Speaker 1: put John James uh As slightly ahead and put Michigan

720
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 1: three the open seat in Wisconsin. This is going to

721
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:44,400
Speaker 1: be an extraordinarily close race Wiscoont. Let's see how the

722
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 1: primary goes Wiscont. You know, when when Wisconsin goes too

723
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:49,359
Speaker 1: far to the right, that's when they struggle to win

724
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 1: statewide races. They've had more success with businessmen at times

725
00:43:55,280 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 1: in some of these primaries. We'll see, But I will

726
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:03,720
Speaker 1: tell you this, I hope, I hope my man Tommy

727
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:06,240
Speaker 1: Thompson gets into this race. Eighty five year old Tommy Thompson,

728
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:08,280
Speaker 1: who was a four term governor back in the nineties,

729
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 1: indicated he'd like to run again. He ran for Senate

730
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,719
Speaker 1: a cycle or so ago and got and got trounced

731
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 1: by Tammy Baldwin. He doesn't have his fastball, but he's

732
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 1: probably more with it than other eighty year old politicians,

733
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 1: I'll tell you that. And he certainly would be entertaining

734
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 1: in the primary and would make it an even more

735
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 1: fun race to cover. But overall, let's see how that

736
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:32,880
Speaker 1: primary goes, which which really is another reason to keep

737
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 1: it in the fore slot. The Lieutenant Governor Tony Evers

738
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 1: is a running mate is the most likely demonominee, but

739
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 1: we'll see. I think that's still early there. And then

740
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:48,239
Speaker 1: the fifth slot. Right now, I put Iowa in Rob

741
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:52,240
Speaker 1: sand This is as he's been in the race a while,

742
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 1: He's accumulated a ton of money. The Republican it is

743
00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 1: going to be a pretty competitive Republican primary. There is

744
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 1: no there is no nobody's been really coronated just yet.

745
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 1: That could happen, and I think Randy Finstruf he gets

746
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 1: the nomination, is going to be a really really strong

747
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 1: Republican nominee. Sam's gonna have a ton of money. He

748
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 1: has been a proven he won even in a tough

749
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:21,839
Speaker 1: Democratic year. He won re election as state auditor, so

750
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 1: his track record's pretty strong. He's been running a very

751
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:28,200
Speaker 1: centrist campaign. Remember, those of you that have been listening

752
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 1: to my podcast from the very beginning, know that Rob

753
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:34,759
Speaker 1: Sam was on this race, and he was He basically said,

754
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 1: the only reason he's running as a Democrats is that

755
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,520
Speaker 1: it's too hard to run as an independent. So point

756
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:41,359
Speaker 1: is is you could see the type of race he's

757
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 1: tried to run. He is not He is not going

758
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:47,359
Speaker 1: to want to get tagged as a national Democrat. We'll

759
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:49,799
Speaker 1: see if we'll see if he's successful at that. If

760
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 1: he is, he's going to be there. Look, there's a

761
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:56,239
Speaker 1: lot of other competitive governatorial races this year. I think

762
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:59,880
Speaker 1: Ohio is going to be competitive, but I think Romas

763
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 1: he's going to be the favorite, so the Republicans therefore

764
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:05,720
Speaker 1: going to be favorite. I think Tim Walls. I think Georgia,

765
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 1: the open zing in Georgia is going to be competitive there,

766
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 1: but I think it's got a long way to go

767
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 1: before we know which way that wind is blowing. And

768
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:17,360
Speaker 1: it's been along, you know, it's been since Roy Barnes

769
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 1: want a term as governor in nineteen ninety eight, since

770
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 1: Democrats been able to win a governor's race. I think

771
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 1: the most right now vulnerable incumbent in the country is

772
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 1: Katie Hobbs for the Democratic side in Arizona. UH and

773
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 1: Dave Schwikert, a swing state member of Congress. There's been

774
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 1: swing district who's constantly had to deal with very tough

775
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 1: congressional races. He's the He's jumped in up primary that

776
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:49,880
Speaker 1: already has two MAGA Trump endorsed candidates in it. Schwikert said, nominee.

777
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 1: I think Hobbs is in deep, deep trouble. Her best

778
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 1: way past the victory is if one of if it

779
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:59,000
Speaker 1: if it's somebody that's a bit too conservative, that that's

780
00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:01,440
Speaker 1: sort of been the past in an Arizona politics for

781
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 1: some time. Democratic success goes hand in hand with Republicans

782
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:09,840
Speaker 1: nominating folks too far from the center. You know, Arizona

783
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 1: really is a sort of center right but much more

784
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:16,240
Speaker 1: libertarian state, and I think some of that Maga stuff

785
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:19,320
Speaker 1: doesn't quite play as well there. There's a large Mormon

786
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 1: population in Arizona that doesn't like the low character style

787
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:27,200
Speaker 1: of mega politics either. That is also provided an opening

788
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:30,680
Speaker 1: for moderate Democrats to win statewide there as well. So

789
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 1: you know, she won very narrowly against the second most

790
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:38,919
Speaker 1: unpopular or a second arguably the second most unqualified person

791
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 1: to run for governor in Kerry Lake. And so I think,

792
00:47:46,040 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 1: I think anybody that's slightly more mainstream than Kerry Lake,

793
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 1: you've gotta you've got to give. So she's probably the

794
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:57,320
Speaker 1: most vulnerable incumbent. And then on the Republican side, it's

795
00:47:57,400 --> 00:48:02,800
Speaker 1: it's Joe Lombardo Nevada, probably the most vulnerable Democratic Republican incumbent.

796
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:06,239
Speaker 1: But again the hardest thing to do in politics is

797
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 1: to deny a governor second term. It just doesn't happen

798
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 1: very often. All right, here's my top five for the week. Now,

799
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:16,040
Speaker 1: let's do a couple of questions. We'll get you out

800
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:21,719
Speaker 1: of here, little last Chuck, ask Chuck. All right, it's

801
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:24,879
Speaker 1: question time. Let's start. We'll start with Aaron W. He says, Hello, Chuck,

802
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:28,440
Speaker 1: I'm so sick of seeing money and special interest ruling politicians.

803
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:30,919
Speaker 1: I fully believe they will never vote to band stock

804
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 1: trading of elected officials or vote to fund their own

805
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 1: healthcare out of pocket like normal working people. However, would

806
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 1: there ever be a snowballs chance in hell of a

807
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 1: constitutional amendment danning stock trading or cutting off perks like

808
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:44,720
Speaker 1: top of the line healthcare. Probably not, but one can dream, right, thanks,

809
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 1: Aaron W. Well, look here's where I do think. Look

810
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 1: I am, I really do believe we're going to have

811
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:56,840
Speaker 1: some form of a constitutional convention in the next decade

812
00:48:56,920 --> 00:49:01,399
Speaker 1: or so. I think we're much better. And again, when

813
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:05,440
Speaker 1: you look at other periods of tumult that are similar

814
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:08,359
Speaker 1: to the period of political tumult that we're experiencing. It

815
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:15,719
Speaker 1: was followed by a robust movement of adding important constitutional amendments. Right,

816
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 1: if you look, we basically had three periods where we

817
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 1: as a country, you know, past quite a few constitutional amendments.

818
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:28,239
Speaker 1: One was, of course, you know, at the founding, The

819
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 1: second was after the Civil War and during the Civil War,

820
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 1: and the third was in this period. And then from

821
00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:35,879
Speaker 1: about you know, nineteen ten through about nineteen thirty five,

822
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:38,880
Speaker 1: where we did quite a bit of amending you know,

823
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:43,400
Speaker 1: direct election of senators, women's right to vote, they prohibition,

824
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:48,640
Speaker 1: and then repealing prohibition, et cetera. So, and I think

825
00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:52,480
Speaker 1: it turns out that the emolument's clause for the presidency

826
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 1: wasn't enough, that we may have to be more direct

827
00:49:56,000 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 1: about elected office and business interests and financial interests. So

828
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 1: I am bullish that if we get to that point

829
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:08,239
Speaker 1: of a constant where there's some agreement about, hey, we

830
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 1: need to you know, we need to look at some

831
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:14,359
Speaker 1: at some refreshing of our democracy, and we can't let

832
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:17,920
Speaker 1: another president do that. In order to perhaps get a

833
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:21,960
Speaker 1: broader coalition supportive of a constitutional amendment, that it may

834
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,319
Speaker 1: I could see it being written in such a way

835
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:30,600
Speaker 1: to impact all federal elected office holders, not just the

836
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:35,720
Speaker 1: president and the vice president. So whether it's stock trading.

837
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:38,040
Speaker 1: I don't know if you'd get to stock trading, but

838
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:40,960
Speaker 1: it is certainly going to be an you know, to

839
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:46,840
Speaker 1: put some constitutional guardrails in to prevent using office to

840
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 1: gain wealth in at least trying to minimize, trying to

841
00:50:52,600 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 1: make it harder, trying to erect a real, actual constitutional

842
00:50:56,880 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 1: guardrail rather than a quote unquote norm or ethical guideline

843
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 1: or something something like that. And look, part of the

844
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:08,280
Speaker 1: reason it's it's the separation of powers make it hard

845
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 1: for the legislative branch to put policies on the executive branch,

846
00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 1: the elected leaders of that. So just you know, the

847
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 1: cleanest way to do this is via constitutional amendment. Our

848
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 1: next question comes from Chrispy. It's a check, longtime fan

849
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 1: from the Meat Press days and now your podcast. Thank you, Chris,

850
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:26,800
Speaker 1: appreciate it. My question comment regarding the shutdown is that

851
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:29,480
Speaker 1: it plays right into Trump's plan with the economy. Government

852
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:32,399
Speaker 1: shutdown means no BLS reports, which will give Trump cover

853
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:35,400
Speaker 1: for the increasingly vad economic numbers. You'll blame the Democrats

854
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:37,959
Speaker 1: for the bad economic numbers once the shutdown end, because

855
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:39,960
Speaker 1: you really think the American people will believe another lie

856
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 1: or misinformation. Chris I don't because I think, you know,

857
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 1: lived experience always trumps the misinformation. Right. Look, Joe Biden

858
00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:51,440
Speaker 1: was out there and the Democrats were telling, you know,

859
00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 1: the economy's fined, and people said, well, that's not what

860
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:58,440
Speaker 1: i'm feeling. Right, So if it didn't work for Biden,

861
00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 1: and perhaps they weren't as good at it is as

862
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:03,399
Speaker 1: Trump is at times, I just don't think it's gonna

863
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:08,759
Speaker 1: work for your Lived experience is what you're gonna vote on. Okay,

864
00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 1: you know you're gonna believe me or you're lying eyes

865
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 1: right that that expression. But in all seriousness, I do

866
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:19,279
Speaker 1: think lived experience Trump's Trump's anything. Trump will try to

867
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:23,799
Speaker 1: spend on us, and so we'll say, look, there's a

868
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:26,319
Speaker 1: lot of disagreement. I'm gonna have market any comeback pretty soon.

869
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 1: There's a lot of disagreement here. I mean, I think

870
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 1: this is you know, I do think that we're going

871
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:36,480
Speaker 1: to have another sort of messy interpretation of the economy.

872
00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:39,520
Speaker 1: You know, the stock market can continue to do gangbusters

873
00:52:39,840 --> 00:52:43,680
Speaker 1: while people feel like this economy sucks. Right, And I've

874
00:52:43,719 --> 00:52:47,680
Speaker 1: always said that you know the number, if you look

875
00:52:47,680 --> 00:52:51,600
Speaker 1: at the economic numbers, it's just you know, if you're

876
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:55,480
Speaker 1: not if you're not. It's just sort of like it

877
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:57,239
Speaker 1: takes money to make money. But if you don't have

878
00:52:57,280 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 1: the money, you can't take advantage of the situation we're

879
00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 1: in with the stock market. And then it feels like

880
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 1: you can never get ahead. They can never catch up,

881
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 1: let alone get ahead. So I think this is a

882
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 1: really crappy economy if you don't already have a savings

883
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:17,400
Speaker 1: or you don't already have a house. And so no

884
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:20,400
Speaker 1: amount of numbers is going to mask the feeling people

885
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 1: have the inability to move up the economic ladder, the

886
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:26,160
Speaker 1: inability to get out of one house and get into

887
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 1: one that's slightly bigger and sort of move up, you know,

888
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 1: you sort of participate in what the American dream is

889
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:36,319
Speaker 1: supposed to be. So and I think twenty six, I

890
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:41,280
Speaker 1: think we're going to have sort of a stock market

891
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:46,319
Speaker 1: that may give one perception of the economy. And then

892
00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:52,960
Speaker 1: the cost to live, you know, higher healthcare premiums, higher,

893
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 1: you know, prices on every little good because of tariffs,

894
00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 1: are electric bills, and I look, I think the anti

895
00:54:03,239 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 1: data stuff, the AI data farms are going to start

896
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:12,520
Speaker 1: becoming political targets and get blamed in some places it's

897
00:54:12,560 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 1: fair some places, it may not be fair for increasing

898
00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:20,800
Speaker 1: the cost of power. It's possible Trump takes some heat

899
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:24,600
Speaker 1: for not embracing on all of the above energy policy,

900
00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 1: which could lower our power bills over time instead of

901
00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:34,640
Speaker 1: increasing them. So I do think the cost to live

902
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:37,160
Speaker 1: is not going away as an issue, even if the

903
00:54:37,600 --> 00:54:40,760
Speaker 1: sort of the numbers of the economy will look pretty

904
00:54:40,760 --> 00:54:42,640
Speaker 1: good if you look at it a certain way, particularly

905
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:46,200
Speaker 1: if you have some wealth versus what the numbers will

906
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 1: look like to those that can't break into that part

907
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:56,560
Speaker 1: of the economy. And so I have a feeling that's

908
00:54:56,600 --> 00:54:58,839
Speaker 1: what things are going to look like in twenty six

909
00:54:59,239 --> 00:55:03,600
Speaker 1: and that's maybe the best case scenario for economic outlook.

910
00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 1: All right. Next question comes from Roger L. Hey, Chuck,

911
00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 1: I've been listening to your podcast for a year, all right,

912
00:55:09,719 --> 00:55:12,800
Speaker 1: and I appreciate your deep political insight. I have shallow

913
00:55:12,840 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 1: political insight too. I promise I can go to the

914
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:17,279
Speaker 1: deep end, but I'll get shallo. If you want you

915
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:19,680
Speaker 1: want to do some Paul fine Bomb, I just have

916
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:21,719
Speaker 1: one piece of advice for Paul fine Bomb, by the way,

917
00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:24,799
Speaker 1: to do some shallow hot take political analysis that an

918
00:55:25,000 --> 00:55:29,239
Speaker 1: ESPN person will understand everybody who says they love you.

919
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:35,759
Speaker 1: Now just wait till you jump into politics. Brother, Okay,

920
00:55:35,960 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 1: none of your word You think your words get scrutinized

921
00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:41,520
Speaker 1: now by SEC fans. You ain't see nothing yet, and

922
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:44,359
Speaker 1: he already has sort of gotten a high hard one

923
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 1: by his you know where somebody dug up something he

924
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:51,839
Speaker 1: said about Trump in twenty seventeen. Look, if Trump gets

925
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:54,120
Speaker 1: you the endorsement, then you're right. You'll be able to

926
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:57,719
Speaker 1: skate by, and it makes everything you said about him

927
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:04,680
Speaker 1: forgivable to the Mago world. I'm not so convinced you're

928
00:56:04,680 --> 00:56:07,120
Speaker 1: gonna get Trump on your side, mister Finebaum, but we

929
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:09,520
Speaker 1: shall say. All right, Sorry, just thought i'd provide you

930
00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:11,960
Speaker 1: a little shallow political announcement set up the deep political insight,

931
00:56:12,800 --> 00:56:15,000
Speaker 1: he goes. You've often noted the Democrats struggled to find

932
00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:17,640
Speaker 1: themselves beyond being not Trump, even as you discuss issues

933
00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:19,759
Speaker 1: like democracy and equality in the rule of law. Truck

934
00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 1: me that while Republicans have Project twenty twenty five as

935
00:56:22,120 --> 00:56:24,879
Speaker 1: a roadmap, Democrats could use their own Project twenty twenty

936
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:29,040
Speaker 1: eight or twenty twenty nine to outline concrete, broadly supported reforms.

937
00:56:29,040 --> 00:56:31,280
Speaker 1: When I give voters a clear vision of change. Roger,

938
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:34,759
Speaker 1: I am increasingly somebody else has written something similar to this,

939
00:56:35,600 --> 00:56:40,160
Speaker 1: and I'm increasingly thinking that it is something democrats ought

940
00:56:40,160 --> 00:56:43,760
Speaker 1: to do because you know what, it's actually been done before,

941
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:48,040
Speaker 1: and it's worked. You know, the Contract with America ninety

942
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:52,240
Speaker 1: four worked. I think the public, you know, a cynic

943
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:54,600
Speaker 1: like me may say it's a bunch of hogwash, only

944
00:56:54,600 --> 00:56:57,440
Speaker 1: about two or three items and their real priorities. But

945
00:56:58,400 --> 00:57:00,839
Speaker 1: voters want to know you're going to get something done right.

946
00:57:00,960 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 1: And I think that and there in some ways, you know,

947
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:06,760
Speaker 1: like in the movie Tommy Boy, they want to guarantee

948
00:57:06,760 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 1: on the box. You know, he wants it right there

949
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:12,640
Speaker 1: on the box. It's smiling at you, it's looking at you, right.

950
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:17,480
Speaker 1: But in all seriousness, I do think that there's something

951
00:57:17,560 --> 00:57:22,520
Speaker 1: to it. I think the lack of trust in politicians

952
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:24,320
Speaker 1: these days means you got to put it in writing.

953
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:27,440
Speaker 1: So I actually think if you, if you, you know,

954
00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:32,640
Speaker 1: we're all so accustomed to believe that you can't really

955
00:57:32,680 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 1: believe that a politician isn't gonna do what they say

956
00:57:36,760 --> 00:57:42,400
Speaker 1: and say what they do, right, So I think it

957
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:45,240
Speaker 1: would be healthy. I mean, look, the downside to it

958
00:57:45,280 --> 00:57:48,520
Speaker 1: is the downside. Why the Trump campaign ran away from it,

959
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:51,720
Speaker 1: not towards it, even though it was a governing blueprint.

960
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:53,720
Speaker 1: That's because some of the things that we're gonna do

961
00:57:53,760 --> 00:57:57,680
Speaker 1: and we're gonna turn off swing voters, and that's the danger. Right.

962
00:57:57,720 --> 00:58:01,000
Speaker 1: It all depends on how big your coalition is. But

963
00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:05,360
Speaker 1: I think generally voters do want to see something in writing.

964
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:11,400
Speaker 1: I do so I think there's something to it. But

965
00:58:13,200 --> 00:58:15,560
Speaker 1: don't you know, I think the problem with Project twenty

966
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 1: twenty five is that was written to a love letter

967
00:58:17,400 --> 00:58:23,600
Speaker 1: to Maga, which is why it was politically unpopular with

968
00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:27,240
Speaker 1: what they were doing. If somebody has an agenda that

969
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:30,560
Speaker 1: is sort of more of a broad agenda that's designed

970
00:58:30,560 --> 00:58:34,320
Speaker 1: to benefit as many Americans as possible, not just members

971
00:58:34,320 --> 00:58:39,400
Speaker 1: of your side, I think putting it in writing could

972
00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:43,840
Speaker 1: be very very effective. All right, I'm just thinking one

973
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:46,200
Speaker 1: more question here. This one comes from Brian said, I

974
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:48,480
Speaker 1: would you handle the bad faith arguments of misinformation that

975
00:58:48,520 --> 00:58:54,680
Speaker 1: republics are using influence government shutdown debate? Well, look, I

976
00:58:55,040 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 1: guess I would you know. This is where I tactically

977
00:58:57,520 --> 00:59:01,600
Speaker 1: think I would have I go back. I don't think

978
00:59:01,600 --> 00:59:05,760
Speaker 1: I would have made this my moment of truth. I

979
00:59:05,760 --> 00:59:08,080
Speaker 1: think I would have taken the clean CR and taken

980
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:11,640
Speaker 1: this to November and then made November the be all

981
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:14,480
Speaker 1: and all on healthcare. I still think it's a good argument.

982
00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:19,800
Speaker 1: I still think it's a it's a it's it's certainly look,

983
00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:24,400
Speaker 1: if this were just about healthcare, they'd already have opened

984
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:28,200
Speaker 1: the government. It's obviously not just about healthcare. I do

985
00:59:28,280 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 1: think plenty of Democrats inside, that's inside those elected Senate

986
00:59:32,120 --> 00:59:35,320
Speaker 1: and House conferences say Jesus, he's running rough shot over

987
00:59:35,400 --> 00:59:38,640
Speaker 1: the Constitution. We've got to show some spine. You've got

988
00:59:38,680 --> 00:59:40,760
Speaker 1: to stand up to him on somebody. We've got to

989
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:43,760
Speaker 1: provide a road, if not a roadblock, at least a

990
00:59:43,840 --> 00:59:48,800
Speaker 1: speed bump, make it harder for him to do these things,

991
00:59:48,840 --> 00:59:52,640
Speaker 1: not easier. Right, So the problem is that is not

992
00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:55,480
Speaker 1: I don't think a lot of voters, you know, the

993
00:59:55,760 --> 00:59:59,960
Speaker 1: the democracy arguments haven't worked. They work with the bay

994
01:00:00,200 --> 01:00:03,240
Speaker 1: but they don't work with swing voters. What does work

995
01:00:03,280 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 1: with swing voters is stuff that impacts them cost of living,

996
01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:12,120
Speaker 1: healthcare subsidies. Right. That's so, I understand the choice of

997
01:00:12,160 --> 01:00:18,760
Speaker 1: the issue is correct politically, but they're in a you know,

998
01:00:18,840 --> 01:00:21,640
Speaker 1: they lost some high ground and quote unquote clean cr

999
01:00:21,720 --> 01:00:26,160
Speaker 1: I get it. Trump is totally and completely an unreliable

1000
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 1: partner to negotiate with because of what he did on recisions.

1001
01:00:29,440 --> 01:00:32,480
Speaker 1: But just look at the word recisions. It is not

1002
01:00:32,800 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 1: something that is in the everyday lexicon. And you're like,

1003
01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:39,880
Speaker 1: what the recisions? Seventy percent of the country's going, wait,

1004
01:00:40,560 --> 01:00:44,920
Speaker 1: what are you recissoring? What are you talking about? And

1005
01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:48,919
Speaker 1: so I think the real motivation here is that, hey,

1006
01:00:48,920 --> 01:00:51,480
Speaker 1: this guy's running rough shot and not following the Constitution.

1007
01:00:52,360 --> 01:00:56,000
Speaker 1: But that's been an incredibly hard argument to get mass

1008
01:00:56,040 --> 01:01:00,720
Speaker 1: appeal for. You could say maybe that that's the principle

1009
01:01:00,760 --> 01:01:06,400
Speaker 1: worth standing standing on it. I don't. I don't disagree,

1010
01:01:06,680 --> 01:01:09,560
Speaker 1: but and I certainly think this. You know, if you're

1011
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:12,800
Speaker 1: asking me what I would do with this undocumented you know,

1012
01:01:12,840 --> 01:01:14,880
Speaker 1: the idea of they want health care for the undocumented,

1013
01:01:16,240 --> 01:01:20,920
Speaker 1: I would continue to ask the rhetorical question, so should

1014
01:01:20,920 --> 01:01:26,919
Speaker 1: emergency rooms reject anybody who isn't a citizen? Has any

1015
01:01:27,080 --> 01:01:30,040
Speaker 1: anybody who heard of the hippocratic oath? Right? No doctor

1016
01:01:30,120 --> 01:01:32,680
Speaker 1: is going to do that, And that is not what

1017
01:01:32,760 --> 01:01:37,240
Speaker 1: America does. We're the United States, a fucking America. Pardon

1018
01:01:37,280 --> 01:01:40,880
Speaker 1: my French here, Actually, you know, I'm speaking American here.

1019
01:01:41,320 --> 01:01:45,360
Speaker 1: We don't do that. We don't leave people to die

1020
01:01:45,680 --> 01:01:49,959
Speaker 1: in our country just because of what country they're from.

1021
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:54,200
Speaker 1: That's not what we supposedly are holding ourselves up for

1022
01:01:54,240 --> 01:01:56,960
Speaker 1: as a role model for the world. So if you're

1023
01:01:56,960 --> 01:01:59,240
Speaker 1: asking me how I would push back on that aspect

1024
01:01:59,240 --> 01:02:01,800
Speaker 1: of the debate, I'd say, why do you want people

1025
01:02:01,840 --> 01:02:05,440
Speaker 1: to die in emergency rooms? If you're there going to

1026
01:02:05,440 --> 01:02:08,160
Speaker 1: be disingenuous? You fight back with you take a kernel

1027
01:02:08,160 --> 01:02:12,000
Speaker 1: of truth? Do you want to rescind the law that

1028
01:02:12,240 --> 01:02:16,400
Speaker 1: says emergency rooms do get reimbursed for treating anybody that

1029
01:02:16,440 --> 01:02:22,320
Speaker 1: comes in, regardless of their nationality or their citizenship. I

1030
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:25,080
Speaker 1: promise you that wouldn't be popular. We're religious enough in

1031
01:02:25,120 --> 01:02:27,520
Speaker 1: America to still think that we ought to take care

1032
01:02:27,560 --> 01:02:33,240
Speaker 1: of somebody regardless, you know, no matter their hurt. Now, look,

1033
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:37,640
Speaker 1: if somebody committed a crime, we patch them up, then

1034
01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:40,480
Speaker 1: we arrest them, right. Mark Sanchez found out about that

1035
01:02:41,520 --> 01:02:46,560
Speaker 1: in Indianapolis over the weekend for football fans at Paula

1036
01:02:46,600 --> 01:02:50,160
Speaker 1: Bet that story. If you need more on that, just

1037
01:02:50,160 --> 01:02:52,240
Speaker 1: go google it. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna get

1038
01:02:52,280 --> 01:02:54,080
Speaker 1: into it. But the point is do you ask me

1039
01:02:54,080 --> 01:02:55,560
Speaker 1: about how to deal with that. That's how we deal

1040
01:02:55,600 --> 01:02:59,280
Speaker 1: with it. But I do think that the shutdown politics

1041
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:02,960
Speaker 1: are complicated because the real reason Democrats are drawn a

1042
01:03:02,960 --> 01:03:05,560
Speaker 1: line in the same of the ear is not about healthcare, right,

1043
01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:09,520
Speaker 1: It's about the entire process of working with Donald Trump

1044
01:03:09,960 --> 01:03:13,920
Speaker 1: and how he has not you know, why should Democrats

1045
01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:19,920
Speaker 1: provide sixty votes for appropriations when they will use fifty

1046
01:03:20,000 --> 01:03:24,480
Speaker 1: votes on a parting line two to rescind some of

1047
01:03:24,600 --> 01:03:29,400
Speaker 1: any appropriation they don't like, which they've already done. So

1048
01:03:29,480 --> 01:03:32,600
Speaker 1: I think that that's the that's where this is. You know,

1049
01:03:33,040 --> 01:03:35,560
Speaker 1: this is a you can't you can't trust the negotiation.

1050
01:03:36,520 --> 01:03:42,600
Speaker 1: It's a fair gripe, and it's one that is it's

1051
01:03:42,680 --> 01:03:45,439
Speaker 1: it's like, who's to say they would do this, They've

1052
01:03:45,480 --> 01:03:49,320
Speaker 1: already done it, right, So, but that is a tough

1053
01:03:49,320 --> 01:03:52,880
Speaker 1: one to galvanize the public on. That's the problem. The

1054
01:03:52,880 --> 01:03:55,520
Speaker 1: specific issue of healthcare is something that the public will

1055
01:03:55,520 --> 01:04:01,120
Speaker 1: galvanize about. And I have to say Republicans are fumbling

1056
01:04:01,120 --> 01:04:05,200
Speaker 1: this healthcare conversation. Right when Marjorie Taylor Green is the

1057
01:04:05,200 --> 01:04:06,840
Speaker 1: one out there leading the charge of, Hey, we got

1058
01:04:06,880 --> 01:04:08,720
Speaker 1: to get these healthcare stuff. What are we doing to people?

1059
01:04:10,040 --> 01:04:12,120
Speaker 1: If you notice she went out there and said that

1060
01:04:12,840 --> 01:04:16,240
Speaker 1: Donald Trump started to say, hey, we're gonna provide good healthcare.

1061
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:20,240
Speaker 1: You can quite say, how right, But he's sensitive, he's

1062
01:04:20,360 --> 01:04:24,840
Speaker 1: nervous about this issue. So in that sense, the Democrats

1063
01:04:24,840 --> 01:04:27,840
Speaker 1: have made some gains on the shutdown simply getting that

1064
01:04:28,000 --> 01:04:30,680
Speaker 1: issue more front center, because look, it is hard to

1065
01:04:30,680 --> 01:04:33,640
Speaker 1: break through on anything these days in the world of

1066
01:04:33,720 --> 01:04:37,040
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. All right, with that, I will call it

1067
01:04:37,520 --> 01:04:42,240
Speaker 1: a podcast. Appreciate you listening. Thank you as always. You know,

1068
01:04:42,360 --> 01:04:45,720
Speaker 1: sometimes I'm my old man yelling at cloud, and you guys,

1069
01:04:46,400 --> 01:04:48,360
Speaker 1: I see by the numbers I am not, so I

1070
01:04:48,360 --> 01:04:51,560
Speaker 1: appreciate that there's a lot of a lot of people

1071
01:04:51,640 --> 01:04:54,240
Speaker 1: joining me in yelling at the cloud. And with that,

1072
01:04:54,320 --> 01:04:58,360
Speaker 1: I'll see him for twenty four hours until we upload again.

1073
01:05:00,120 --> 01:05:00,160
Speaker 1: M